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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 12714 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   101. Ron J Posted: April 30, 2020 at 03:38 PM (#5946288)
#96

Manitoba's self-screening tool

It's pretty much what you'd expect. Do you have a fever? Have you been out hunting bats?

EDIT: Doordash will be by with a contactless Coke.
   102. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 30, 2020 at 03:43 PM (#5946291)
As an Orange County NY* resident, I always say that "Upstate New York" begins at the sign that says "Welcome to Yonkers".

I grew up in Rockland. For us, upstate began at Harriman State Park.


rew upo in Manhattan, and I'd be good with Van Cortlandt Park
   103. Karl from NY Posted: April 30, 2020 at 04:07 PM (#5946297)
What is the resurrected thread? Is it this one, or the NBA coronathread, or something else, or one that's pending and hasn't shown up yet?
   104. Karl from NY Posted: April 30, 2020 at 04:11 PM (#5946300)
I grew up on Long Island. Upstate begins at like 110th St in Manhattan.

(Seriously speaking, everything beyond the Bronx is upstate.)
   105. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 30, 2020 at 04:12 PM (#5946302)
right now it's this one Karl. Just checked the NBA thread, and they're discussing the NBA.
   106. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: April 30, 2020 at 04:17 PM (#5946304)
It's possible that Brazil ends up being the best 'what if no lockdown?' testbed that there is. There are certainly local efforts to suppress, but national-level intervention seems unlikely to be a major factor.


Whatever would give you that idea?

More than 5,000 Brazilians have lost their lives to the coronavirus – even more people than in China, if its official statistics are to be believed.

But on Tuesday night Brazil’s president shrugged off the news. “So what?” Jair Bolsonaro told reporters when asked about the record 474 deaths that day. “I’m sorry. What do you want me to do?”

...

“My name’s Messiah,” Bolsonaro also told reporters on Tuesday, in reference to his second name, Messias. “But I can’t work miracles.”


Graun
   107. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: April 30, 2020 at 04:28 PM (#5946310)
But on Tuesday night Brazil’s president shrugged off the news. “So what?” Jair Bolsonaro told reporters when asked about the record 474 deaths that day. “I’m sorry. What do you want me to do?”

TIL life is cheap in Brazil.
   108. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 30, 2020 at 04:32 PM (#5946313)
Just checked the NBA thread, and they're discussing the NBA.
Yeah, those guys are the worst.
   109. Howie Menckel Posted: April 30, 2020 at 05:16 PM (#5946323)
it will be hard to find soon otherwise, so (after a 5 1/2-hour possibly COVID-related 'nap'), here goes

New York State Daily COVID-19 Death Toll

April 9 - 799, the high

April 12 - 671
April 13 - 778
April 14 - 752
April 15 - 606
April 16 - 630
April 17 - 540
April 18 - 507
April 19 - 478
April 20 - 481
April 21 - 474
April 22 - 415
April 23 - 422
April 24 - 437
April 25 - 367
April 26 - 337
April 27 - 335
April 28 - 330
April 29 - 306

.................


@JonHeyman
·
9m
Early July remains MLB’s target for a season. Spring training would likely be 3 weeks, plus 2 weeks for those who wish to come early. With minor leagues not too likely (but not canceled to this point) MLB rosters are expected to be expanded, and there may be a taxi squad as well.
   110. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 30, 2020 at 05:20 PM (#5946324)
Seriously speaking, everything beyond the Bronx is upstate.
Actual Upstate NYers would require you to be north of the 42nd parallel (the straight line portion of the NY-PA border), or alternatively north of any county that abuts a county that borders NYC. The Catskills are somewhat of a buffer zone for some.
   111. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 30, 2020 at 05:28 PM (#5946325)

I am just catching up to some of the posts on NYC vs. Sweden. Even if we knew the infection rate in Stockholm, why do people keep comparing Sweden vs. NYC rather than Stockholm vs. NYC? Metro Stockholm is only about 1/4 of the population of Sweden, so this is an apples-to-oranges comparison. The infection rate in upstate NY is much less than NYC or the broader NYC metro area, I would expect similar relative infection levels in small towns vs. large cities in Sweden.
   112. PreservedFish Posted: April 30, 2020 at 05:33 PM (#5946326)
Having grown up in NYC, everything of the north counts as upstate to me, although I guess places like Yonkers are in a kind of border zone.

I have heard it asserted - from upstaters - that "upstate" refers specifically to the far north of the state, the almost-Canada area north even of Syracuse and Albany. It's possible that those those extreme upstaters are the only folks that will actually agree that they are from "upstate NY," although who knows, perhaps they have their own name for themselves. "The Free Folk," perhaps.
   113. PreservedFish Posted: April 30, 2020 at 05:33 PM (#5946327)
Dave, I tried to do Stockholm vs NYC, but couldn't find Stockholm-only numbers.
   114. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 30, 2020 at 05:36 PM (#5946328)

I will also say that I don't know why the other thread was closed, but frankly there were a couple of site regulars who showed up in that thread within the past few days who I had to put on ignore. They just could not avoid injecting OTP into the thread and they were adding nothing of value on the topic at hand (and I'm *not* talking about SBB or YC).
   115. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 30, 2020 at 05:40 PM (#5946330)

Dave, I tried to do Stockholm vs NYC, but couldn't find Stockholm-only numbers.


PF, in post 55 you wrote:

So ... supposing for a moment that Stockholm and NYC are both legitimately around the 20-25% infected/antibodies level, which is what more or less what has been reported... what accounts for the differences in rate of death and illness?

Was the 20-25% actually a Stockholm number, or was that for Sweden as a whole?

You can't use infection rate for Stockholm but deaths for Sweden as a whole.
   116. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 30, 2020 at 05:41 PM (#5946331)
I have heard it asserted - from upstaters - that "upstate" refers specifically to the far north of the state, the almost-Canada area north even of Syracuse and Albany.
Never heard that claim in my time in northern NY. That area is universally known as ‘The North Country’, in my experience - the Adirondacks, or anything north of ~ Watertown. Upstate is much larger.
   117. SoSH U at work Posted: April 30, 2020 at 05:46 PM (#5946332)
Having grown up in NYC, everything of the north counts as upstate to me, although I guess places like Yonkers are in a kind of border zone.


Having grown up in northern Westchester, I can assure you that nothing pisses us more than to be considered being from upstate.
   118. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 30, 2020 at 05:49 PM (#5946333)
I'd go with everything north of Putnam/Rockland is "Upstate". Basically beyond the areas that are commuter dominated.
   119. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: April 30, 2020 at 05:52 PM (#5946334)
As a Long Islander, I consider Westchester upstate.
   120. McCoy Posted: April 30, 2020 at 05:56 PM (#5946336)
I saw the white Sox play the Orioles in an empty stadium.
   121. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 30, 2020 at 05:57 PM (#5946337)
When is Nawrocki going to show up and tell everyone they're from upstate NY?
   122. bobm Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:04 PM (#5946338)
Upstate is north of 96th Street.
   123. PreservedFish Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:05 PM (#5946339)
Was the 20-25% actually a Stockholm number, or was that for Sweden as a whole?

You can't use infection rate for Stockholm but deaths for Sweden as a whole.


I believe that was a "Stockholm area" number. But I couldn't find deaths for Stockholm itself, so I switched to Sweden as a whole. I apologize, that comment was all muddled. But I'm still reasonably sure that in Stockholm, the deaths-to-suspected-infections ratio is MUCH lower than in NYC.
   124. PreservedFish Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:07 PM (#5946341)
Having grown up in northern Westchester, I can assure you that nothing pisses us more than to be considered being from upstate.


I believe you, but from my perspective (in Manhattan and Queens), Westchester is literally upstate. It's often taken (and sometimes meant) as a dismissive term, but it's also geographically accurate. If you're in NYC, there's Long Island to the east, and there's upstate, and that describes everywhere else.
   125. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:11 PM (#5946344)
If “Chicago” can mean anywhere from the Indiana to Wisconsin state line and basically east of Rockford and north of Aurora, my vote is that New Yorkers can just suck it up.
   126. Howie Menckel Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:14 PM (#5946345)

grew up in southern Rockland, and got called "upstate New York" by a Bergen County, NJ-based colleague whose residence was north of mine - and with no Hudson River in between. he'd always ask after a snowstorm how we fared, being so far north and all. #sigh

given the size of New York State, I found the "upstate" claim to be so farcical as to be amusing. I lived about 15 miles north of Manhattan and 300 miles south of Plattsburgh, also in NY. "upstate" doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
   127. SoSH U at work Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:16 PM (#5946346)
I believe you, but from my perspective (in Manhattan and Queens), Westchester is literally upstate. It's often taken (and sometimes meant) as a dismissive term, but it's also geographically accurate. If you're in NYC, there's Long Island to the east, and there's upstate, and that describes everywhere else.


It is directionally accurate to those people who live in NYC, but not so much to someone who lives in Albany. But by labeling everything north of the city "Upstate," the term essentially has no meaning. If Plattsburgh and Mount Vernon are both upstate, then you haven't really provided any useful information.

I'm fairly certain Horace Greeley wasn't referring to Hoboken.
   128. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:20 PM (#5946349)
Great. Now we're gonna have a 75-page "what is and is not upstate New York" thread.
   129. Ron J Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:23 PM (#5946351)
128 We already have a geography thread open. We can push them there.
   130. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:24 PM (#5946352)
Or just create an OT:UNY thread.
   131. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:24 PM (#5946353)
But by labeling everything north of the city "Upstate," the term essentially has no meaning.

Depends on what one id discussing. As I recall, the Bronx-Westchester line was commonly and with accuracy invoked to discuss political and policy differences in Albany.
I hust looked at a map of NYS regions and have zero recollection of having ever learned them, in school. Lucky me, I now live in a state that always vexed Regionalists.
   132. Srul Itza Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:28 PM (#5946354)
Having grown up in northern Westchester, I can assure you that nothing pisses us more than to be considered being from upstate.


Coincidentally, people from upstate wold also be pissed off to hear you called "upstate", so you have that in common.

   133. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:29 PM (#5946355)
I just hope AuntBea finds the resurrected thread.
Was working all day so didn't try to find the new thread when the other was closed.

Not a NY native, as some might have guessed (perhaps due to the "downstate", which I didn't actually know was a term until yesterday). I included Hudson Valley because I read it online somewhere, and also because Cuomo made a big deal about spelling out Westhchester/Rockland rates, which even as a non-native I know are not in NYC or Long Island.

I have been here almost a decade now, so I don't really have an excuse. Rarely leave the city though.

It doesn't seem like Sweden has done any antibody testing, is that right? The most likely explanation is that not very many people (relatively speaking) there actually got infected in the first place, probably somewhat similar to Japan. To me, the question seems most likely to be how are they preventing people from getting infected in the first place, not why are so few of the infected dying. By far the majority in NYC got infected prior to shutdown--it seems most likely that the habits and lifestyle of NYers pre-shutdown was significantly more likely to cause the virus to spread than anything Sweden has been doing before or since.

Also, in the interview the Swedish professor ("leading consultant on the model") thought the UK would only have around 12,000 or 18,000 deaths total. Actual number is now probably around 50,000. That's not particularly reassuring. link.
   134. Laser Man Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:30 PM (#5946356)
While the IHME projections have consistently underestimated the total number of deaths (currently the U.S. is projected at 74K by August 4, after previous estimates of 60K and 67K), a more accurate projection system may be those at Covid-19 Projections. They currently project the U.S. at a range of 94K - 307K, with a mean projection of 166K.

Covid-19 Projections
   135. bob gee Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:32 PM (#5946357)
When I worked in downtown NYC (World Financial Center), people jokingly referred to upstate as above 42nd St. More seriously, it was thought of as anything north of White Plains.

Now that I am in the mid Hudson Valley, I find those people I"m with usually mean it to be somewhat north of us to the border. I believe the distance from Albany to Plattsburgh is approximately equal to the distance from Albany to NYC. Route 87 above there is called the Northway, so I guess from a geography point of view, it's Albany and up?

From a population point of view, White Plains or below might be correct.

   136. . Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:35 PM (#5946358)
The NYC commuter borderline makes the most sense. I wouldn't call a place like Beacon "upstate." Metro North ends at Poughkeepsie; seems like a pretty good rough dividing line to me. You get "upstate" clearly sooner up the Hudson Valley than you get to Red Sox country NE through CT.
   137. SoSH U at work Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:36 PM (#5946359)
Coincidentally, people from upstate wold also be pissed off to hear you called "upstate", so you have that in common.


No kidding.
   138. Karl from NY Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:40 PM (#5946362)
Upstate can have both meanings of directionally relative to the speaker and as an absolute descriptor.
   139. Obo Posted: April 30, 2020 at 06:49 PM (#5946365)
23rd Street.
   140. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 30, 2020 at 07:02 PM (#5946367)
I believe you, but from my perspective (in Manhattan and Queens), Westchester is literally upstate.
With all due respect, the NYC perspective isn’t the one that governs here. That’d be like letting Elizabeth Warren determine who is Native American. Upstate NYers pretty much universally don’t consider the NYC suburbs to be part of upstate NY. NYC residents, past & present, may be confused about it, but geography was never their strong suit.
   141. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: April 30, 2020 at 07:09 PM (#5946368)
the coronavirus thread got shut down?
I suspect it expired, given that it was started on March 1 and closed on April 30 -- I doubt that's coincidence, and I think I recall that happening with previous OT threads (pop culture, maybe OTP?) -- probably because of the "big thread" problem some others alluded to -- and there was occasionally a "WTF happened??...oh right new month, we need a new thread" period.

(Now maybe the admins saw this coming and just let it expire with no new thread because of the uptick in unnecessary political bomb throwing, I don't know.)
   142. catomi01 Posted: April 30, 2020 at 07:10 PM (#5946369)
Now that I am in the mid Hudson Valley, I find those people I"m with usually mean it to be somewhat north of us to the border. I believe the distance from Albany to Plattsburgh is approximately equal to the distance from Albany to NYC. Route 87 above there is called the Northway, so I guess from a geography point of view, it's Albany and up?


North and/or West of Albany probably matches what I would think of upstate...anything between the city and Albany is probably a seperate sub-region in my mind, the same way Long Island is when compared to the city. For reference though, I grew up on Long Island so anything west of Nassau or south of my aunt's farm near Lockport was basically a foreign country that I'd visit or drive through once or twice a year.
   143. Howie Menckel Posted: April 30, 2020 at 07:21 PM (#5946375)
anything between the city and Albany is probably a separate sub-region in my mind

I have now invented a new term - let's call it "The Hudson Valley."

I like it.
   144. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 30, 2020 at 07:25 PM (#5946376)
Quick, Howie, patent it before the realtors arrive ;)
   145. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 30, 2020 at 07:35 PM (#5946378)
I have now invented a new term - let's call it "The Hudson Valley."

I like it.


Quick, Howie, patent it before the realtors arrive ;)

They'll just call it "Huvall" or something else awful.
   146. Howie Menckel Posted: April 30, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5946379)
not to address anything COVID-related, but has anyone gotten a discount on their car insurance, given that gas fillups are now monthly instead of weekly and there is so much less traffic?

"They'll just call it "Huvall" or something else awful."

worst I could come up with would be "LOHUD" for my Lower Hudson Valley.

............

in other news, from the BBC's Rome correspondent:

Mark Lowen
@marklowen
·
7h
Hope continues in #Italy: 285 deaths, lower than yesterday & second-lowest in almost 7 weeks. Current cases see record fall by 3106. Total cases up just 0.9%. Record number of tests, over 68k. ICU patients down again and record daily rise in recoveries: 4693. We’re getting there.
   147. Hysterical & Useless Posted: April 30, 2020 at 07:47 PM (#5946382)
I grew up in Schenectady, ie, "upstate." The term was taken to include everything north of the city. [Upstaters are notorious for their desire to have NYC separated from the state and allowed to drift off into the Atlantic Ocean. There judgement on matters of any import is not to be trusted.]

While MetroNorth may run trains from Poughkeepsie into GCT, it's about a 2 hour trip; you're starting out closer to Albany than NYC. Poughkeepsie is most definitely upstate.

ETA: "worst I could come up with would be "LOHUD" for my Lower Hudson Valley."

Sorry, Howie, that's already in use.
   148. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 30, 2020 at 07:50 PM (#5946383)
. . . not to address anything COVID-related, but has anyone gotten a discount on their car insurance, given that gas fillups are now monthly instead of weekly and there is so much less traffic?
One car insurance company, don’t remember which, is advertising that it knocked 25% off of premiums, but haven’t seen anything on my own yet.
   149. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 30, 2020 at 08:01 PM (#5946385)
has anyone gotten a discount on their car insurance


Yes. Allstate refunded us $36. I think it’s 15% of two months, maybe three months? Something like that.
   150. SoSH U at work Posted: April 30, 2020 at 08:02 PM (#5946386)
not to address anything COVID-related, but has anyone gotten a discount on their car insurance, given that gas fillups are now monthly instead of weekly and there is so much less traffic?


Most of the major ones are. Mine is offering 15 percent for April and May.
   151. Lowry Seasoning Salt Posted: April 30, 2020 at 08:06 PM (#5946388)
Let me help this conversation of New York State geographical delineations: What city would people say is the easternmost part of western New York?
   152. Srul Itza Posted: April 30, 2020 at 08:13 PM (#5946389)
Westchester and Rockland are definitely not Upstate, because they are too tied in to the economy and culture of the City, and when I was a lad (1960's) in Rockland, a lot of the growth was people who had moved out of the City.

The real question is how much further north do you go? I am okay with Ulster, Orange, Dutchess and Putnam being in a separate Lower Hudson Valley group.

But once you get out to Sullivan or up to Greene and Columbia, that is more Upstate to me. It really begins to take on a hard core rural vibe.

At one time, RPI was my safety school (before I got into MIT) -- but looking back, I know I would not have been happy in Troy -- a place where, for excitement, you go into Albany. Oy.

Feelings go both ways, and sometimes go overboard. Anybody remember Ed Koch referring to Upstate New York: "Out in the country, wasting time in a pickup truck when you have to drive 20 miles to buy a gingham dress or a Sears Roebuck suit?" At about the same time, he referred to living in the suburbs as "wasting your life". And this bright boy wanted to run for Governor. What a putz.

   153. Howie Menckel Posted: April 30, 2020 at 08:19 PM (#5946391)
worst I could come up with would be "LOHUD" for my Lower Hudson Valley."

Sorry, Howie, that's already in use.


yes, incredibly the Journal-News of Rockland and Westchester has lohud.com as its website.

up there with "Tronc" as a giant newspaper conglomerate, although that was scrapped soon enough.

ok, not soon enough. but scrapped.
   154. Eric L Posted: April 30, 2020 at 08:52 PM (#5946394)
I grew up on Long Island. Upstate for us in Putnam county. I went to college in Potsdam. There “downstate “ began at Albany.
   155. Dog on the sidewalk has an ugly bracelet Posted: April 30, 2020 at 09:08 PM (#5946397)
I consider Oyster Bay upstate.
   156. Srul Itza Posted: April 30, 2020 at 09:28 PM (#5946400)
the Journal-News of Rockland and Westchester has lohud.com as its website.


And I was a paperboy for the Journal News, delivering it in the Spring Valley-Hillcrest Area -- more than a half-century ago.
   157. Howie Menckel Posted: April 30, 2020 at 09:33 PM (#5946401)
had that same gig, same county, similar era.

my savvy business plan I created was that no matter what time the bundle of papers came, I always began the route at the same time - 4 pm for the afternoon paper. so the house across the street got 4:01 pm and the last house might be 4:30 pm. but the parents always knew right when to look for it.

I'd like to think that consumer certainty increased my tipping bottom line (it was $1.45 for seven days - and $1.10 if you skipped the Sunday paper).
   158. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 30, 2020 at 10:13 PM (#5946402)
Grew up in Westchester, have lived in the city for the better part of the past 15 years. Upstate to me is pretty consistent with Snapper’s definition. If you can’t get to Manhattan on Metro North, you’re upstate.

Although I had this same conversation earlier today with my dad, who has lived his entire life in NY including Rochester, Syracuse, Long Island, Manhattan, and Westchester. He had a much more granular view of what was what.
   159. Snowboy Posted: April 30, 2020 at 10:33 PM (#5946404)
re: 104. Karl from NY: I grew up on Long Island. Upstate begins at like 110th St in Manhattan.

You don't know what you'll do until you're put under pressure
Across 110th Street is a hell of a tester
Bobby Womack - Across 110th Street (1972)
   160. PreservedFish Posted: April 30, 2020 at 11:00 PM (#5946406)
   161. Omineca Greg Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:33 AM (#5946430)
You're right! He sold them.
   162. bob gee Posted: May 01, 2020 at 08:11 AM (#5946432)
I received notice from my local and national insurance company (State Farm) that they would be reducing insurance payments from a date in late March (?) to end of May by approximately 20%.
   163. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: May 01, 2020 at 08:26 AM (#5946433)
I have heard it asserted - from upstaters - that "upstate" refers specifically to the far north of the state, the almost-Canada area north even of Syracuse and Albany.

That's about right, although maybe a bit of an exaggeration. Many of my Hudson Valley neighbors don't consider themselves "upstaters"; that's for people further up, people who don't commute to the city.

has anyone gotten a discount on their car insurance

Some lizard with a funny accent tried to sneak into my house, but my cat ate him.
   164. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: May 01, 2020 at 09:01 AM (#5946441)
You're right! He sold them.


This made me laugh out loud.
   165. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: May 01, 2020 at 09:16 AM (#5946448)
An interesting comparison in Scientific American on the flu deaths vs Covid deaths comparisons....

In a nutshell, the problem is that the seasonal flu death totals are actually not tested/confirmed deaths - but extrapolations based on a smaller number of confirmed. The Covid count is not an extrapolation.

How's that for a sobering Friday though?
   166. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 01, 2020 at 09:22 AM (#5946453)
These University of Minnesota epidemiologists think we are in this for the long haul.

Three scenarios are possible, they said:

Scenario 1: The first wave of Covid-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and then consistently over a one- to two-year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021.

Scenario 2: The first wave of Covid-19 is followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter and one or more smaller waves in 2021. "This pattern will require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed," they wrote. "This pattern is similar to what was seen with the 1918-19 pandemic."

Scenario 3: A "slow burn" of ongoing transmission. "This third scenario likely would not require the reinstitution of mitigation measures, although cases and deaths will continue to occur."


Basically, no end in sight until near herd immunity. They don't really say what the toll will be on the population, but if IFR is high, than the toll will be also.
   167. base ball chick Posted: May 01, 2020 at 10:07 AM (#5946463)
good morning all yall

well, i don't know nothin bout no nyc/nys, but i would think that if the counties that surround NYC are mostly filled with folks who go to NYC for work or fun more than 3 times a week wouldn't really be separate. kind of like not thinking of kingwood as not part of houston

our state is "divided" into East Texas, West Texas, Central Texas, South Texas, North Texas, On The Gulf, and The Border. the dividing lines, if any, are vague

we're up to 10,191 positive tests. i would guess it is 4-5 times higher than that. we supposedly only have 232 deaths. i don't bleeve that neither. the numbers of cases are not decreasing at all.

we are "opening up" today. i hope the mask wearing is taken seriously.
   168. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 10:36 AM (#5946483)
Basically, no end in sight until near herd immunity. They don't really say what the toll will be on the population, but if IFR is high, than the toll will be also.


It would seem to behoove public health officials to understand that true spread of it so that we could begin to estimate how truly bad it would be if 200 million Americans were to get it, and if "flattening the curve" needs to officially change to "actually reversing the curve until we have a vaccine." As SBB and YC have rightly stated, at some point in the last month things switched from the former to the latter, but without much public debate on the matter.
   169. SoSH U at work Posted: May 01, 2020 at 10:37 AM (#5946485)
we are "opening up" today. i hope the mask wearing is taken seriously.


I just got back from the hardware store. Mask wearing was, as far as I could tell, universal. I didn't see an employee or worker without one, at least inside the store.
   170. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: May 01, 2020 at 10:39 AM (#5946486)
This seems to be the new normal where I am (NW Germany). Masks outside are worn very rarely, but inside, I believe they're compulsory since this week.
   171. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: May 01, 2020 at 10:39 AM (#5946487)
Illinois' public mask order went into effect today... I haven't been out because, you know, SIP and won't need groceries till early next week - but the few people I've seen outside through the window all seem to be complying.
   172. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 10:40 AM (#5946488)
It would seem to behoove public health officials to understand that true spread of it so that we could begin to estimate how truly bad it would be if 200 million Americans were to get it, and if "flattening the curve" needs to change to "actually reversing the curve until we have a vaccine."

Since the latter is likely completely impossible, we may be better off not knowing. It's a lot easier to make the necessary decision that 100,000 extra deaths (or 200,000 or 300,000) is not worth utterly destroying the economy to stop, if you don't have to say it out-loud.

The death toll would have to be very, very large to justify a two-year lock down, because that two-year lock-down (and the depression that would continue long after) will kill hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people by itself, through untreated medical conditions, suicide, ODs, alcoholism etc.

The virus would have to be so deadly that no one is going outside anyway to justify a two-year lock down.
   173. bob gee Posted: May 01, 2020 at 10:43 AM (#5946489)
BBC - The New Jersey Transit train line (which leaves NJ and goes into NY) and the Metro North (NY State) train lines each end about 85 miles from NYC. The LIRR (Long Island Railroad) at its furthest point is about 120 miles from NYC.


Good luck staying safe.
   174. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 01, 2020 at 10:47 AM (#5946491)
When is Nawrocki going to show up and tell everyone they're from upstate NY?


You know, this is the one reason I don't like posting under my real name. On this entire page, there is only one poster's real last name mentioned - and it's someone making a nasty comment about me, when I haven't even participated in the thread.
   175. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: May 01, 2020 at 10:54 AM (#5946495)
It would seem to behoove public health officials to understand that true spread of it so that we could begin to estimate how truly bad it would be if 200 million Americans were to get it, and if "flattening the curve" needs to change to "actually reversing the curve until we have a vaccine."

Since the latter is likely completely impossible, we may be better off not knowing. It's a lot easier to make the necessary decision that 100,000 extra deaths (or 200,000 or 300,000) is not worth utterly destroying the economy to stop, if you don't have to say it out-loud.

The death toll would have to be very, very large to justify a two-year lock down, because that two-year lock-down (and the depression that would continue long after) will kill hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people by itself, through untreated medical conditions, suicide, ODs, alcoholism etc.

The virus would have to be so deadly that no one is going outside anyway to justify a two-year lock down.


I find this an incredibly disconcerting idea.

Accepted as a given that a two-year SIP is not even possible - I haven't the slightest clue what the "best" timing is and I very much do think it's not a question that can even addressed at the national level (and for the most part, probably even state level).

But you cannot seriously be suggesting that we should not be using data to at least allow people to make their own decisions because some even more vague assertion might be true?

That is just bonkers.

There is absolutely, positively, under no circumstances any case for being better off not knowing.
   176. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:00 AM (#5946500)
There is absolutely, positively, under no circumstances any case for being better off not knowing.


There absolutely is -- would anyone in their right mind want perfect transparency and knowledge about, say, when they're going to die? -- but in any event it doesn't really matter because we don't have the tools *to* know. Let's not confuse the modeled, dart-throwing guesswork with actual knowledge.

Not only do we not know, the burden of proof is on the lockers-down to know. They haven't come close to meeting that burden. Everyone was on board for a short-term, let's gather ourselves and mourn and make sure the hospitals don't get too crowded and we don't have people dying because they can't get care. That point has passed. It's now an aimless quagmire. Some people generally support the quagmire, to be sure -- but then again, a lot of people supported the Vietnam version.

But you cannot seriously be suggesting that we should not be using data to at least allow people to make their own decisions.


Oh, we absolutely should do that -- and we have plenty of good data for that purpose. If you're under about 45 and otherwise in good health -- no hypertension, no obesity, no diabetes, e.g. -- you're threatened by COVID as much as or less than you're threatened by the flu. If you're under about 20 and otherwise in good health, you're threatened significantly more by the flu. If you're over about 65 and/or you have a co-morbidity, you're threatened significantly more by COVID than you are the flu.

We also know that far more cases of COVID than the flu are asymptomatic and we know that asymptomatic transmission of COVID is frequent.

Ethically, there's no duty upon the healthy not to get themselves sick (with COVID or anything else) so they can't be a transmitter and no such ethical duty has ever been posited. We know that. There *is* an ethical duty once you have it to take all reasonable steps not to be a transmitter, even though that is not really done with the flu or seriously encouraged by society to be done with flu carriers. We know all these things, too. There's really not much more to know at this point that would give guidance to any particular individual as to how to act. This is it.
   177. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:08 AM (#5946501)
snapper, just out of curiosity, what's your take on these articles?

States Made It Harder to Get Jobless Benefits. Now That’s Hard to Undo. Systems that were devised to treat each case as potentially fraudulent are now rushing to deal with millions of newly unemployed people.

Socialism for investors, capitalism for everyone else. With the Federal Reserve backstopping risky corporate debt, the U.S. economy has made itself thoroughly addicted to cheap credit and government rescues

Meatpackers Welcome Trump Order; Others Question Virus Risks

And specifically about that last article: Should workers who refuse to report back to work at those plants, even without adequate safeguards being provided, be denied unemployment benefits? And should companies that force them to return without adequate safety measures be shielded from lawsuits if workers come down with the virus?
   178. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:11 AM (#5946502)
Oh, and one more I'd like to get snapper's reaction to:

Trump push to keep meatpacking plants open comes as pork producers profit from China trade deal

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump’s executive order this week requiring American meatpacking plants to stay open during the coronavirus pandemic is raising new questions about the United States’ massive meat exports, particularly the export of pork to China.

Trump’s order was meant to prevent what meat processors have claimed is an imminent breakdown in the nation’s food supply chain, resulting from the closure of several major meat processing plants that had become hotbeds for coronavirus infections. The president invoked the Defense Production Act, a law intended for wartime usage, to designate the meatpacking industry as part of the nation’s “critical infrastructure.”

Since it was signed late Tuesday, the order has drawn outcry from workers rights activists and effusive praise from the meat industry. Unions said it gave plant owners a green light to ignore worker safety if it interferes with a plant’s ability to stay open and avoid liability if workers get sick or die.

“These are essential workers, they’re not sacrificial lambs,” said Stuart Appelbaum, president of the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union, which represents between 10,000 to 15,000 poultry workers in the South and Midwest. He said states are now stripped of the power to close a plant for deep cleaning, a move that helps stop the spread and keeps workers safe.

“People should know when they are going to work, they are working in a safe environment. You have to prioritize the American people, not the product,” he said. ...
   179. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:13 AM (#5946504)
It is a disconcerting idea.
   180. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:15 AM (#5946506)
If you're under about 45 and otherwise in good health -- no hypertension, no obesity, no diabetes, e.g. -- you're threatened by COVID as much as or less than you're threatened by the flu.


I agree that this person is not in serious danger. However, I think your claim is wrong, maybe very wrong.
   181. Hot Wheeling American Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:16 AM (#5946507)
How are we doing with testing and PPE?
   182. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:18 AM (#5946510)
It is a disconcerting idea.


Why do you not need a particular death total, and why don't we need a particular death total for the myriad of other public policy decisions that are undertaken that inevitably result in deaths? Do you need to know how many people will be killed in auto accidents before you can decide whether to "keep the roads open"? How many people will die as a result of "permitting" alcohol consumption?

   183. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:21 AM (#5946514)
I agree that this person is not in serious danger. However, I think your claim is wrong, maybe very wrong.


That's fine, but the evidence is all in the other direction. The death toll among under 45s without co-morbidiities is small. It seems otherwise, because there's an extraordinary cultural focus on each of them, but that's the reality.
   184. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:24 AM (#5946515)
Bringing up auto deaths is the telltale sign of someone who is not serious on the subject. If we went from 1 auto death in Feb to 60,000 auto deaths in April, you can be damned sure we would shutdown driving until we figure out a way to safely drive again.
   185. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:30 AM (#5946517)
That's fine, but the evidence is all in the other direction. The death toll among under 45s without co-morbidiities is small. It seems otherwise, because there's an extraordinary cultural focus on each of them, but that's the reality.


And what's the death toll of the flu on under 45s without co-morbidities?
   186. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:36 AM (#5946520)
Bringing up auto deaths is the telltale sign of someone who is not serious on the subject. If we went from 1 auto death in Feb to 60,000 auto deaths in April, you can be damned sure we would shutdown driving until we figure out a way to safely drive again.


No metaphor is perfect but rather than accident fatalities generically, I might consider something like the Ford Pinto... Data becomes known - and available - that it has a propensity to, you know, blow up. People are better able to make choices, mitigation efforts (recalls, etc) are undertaken, etc.

We don't just say "Well, it's an affordable economy class car and lots of people need affordable economy class cars so we should keep it quiet because we're better off not knowing so that people who need affordable economy class cars will keep buying affordable economy class cars in order to do the things - like go to work - that society needs them to do."
   187. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:38 AM (#5946523)
If you're under about 45 and otherwise in good health -- no hypertension, no obesity, no diabetes, e.g. -- you're threatened by COVID as much as or less than you're threatened by the flu.


No, this is flat-out wrong. The best estimates of relative mortality rate by age for COVID vs. flu are that the former are ~10-20x the latter for all age groups above about the age of 10. It is true that the numbers, in both cases, are very small for people under age 45 without pre-existing conditions - multiply 0.02% by ten and it's still a very small number - 0.2%. But COVID is a greater threat than the flu to essentially everybody in the world. Full stop.
   188. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:41 AM (#5946526)
I find this an incredibly disconcerting idea.

Accepted as a given that a two-year SIP is not even possible - I haven't the slightest clue what the "best" timing is and I very much do think it's not a question that can even addressed at the national level (and for the most part, probably even state level).

But you cannot seriously be suggesting that we should not be using data to at least allow people to make their own decisions because some even more vague assertion might be true?

That is just bonkers.

There is absolutely, positively, under no circumstances any case for being better off not knowing.


What good does knowing if your odd of dying from COVID are 0.1% or 0.3% or 0.5% do? You didn't know what your odds of dying this year were before this started. Does it really matter if they've gone up 10%, 25%, or 50%?

All these odds are unknowable anyway, beyond an actuarial, large sample size average. You engage in risky behavior every day without knowing or calculating the odds.

Providing people with a false sense of precision does nothing to aid rational decision making.
   189. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:41 AM (#5946527)
No, this is flat-out wrong. The best estimates of relative mortality rate by age for COVID vs. flu are that the former are ~10-20x the latter for all age groups above about the age of 10. It is true that the numbers, in both cases, are very small for people under age 45 without pre-existing conditions - multiply 0.02% by ten and it's still a very small number - 0.2%. But COVID is a greater threat than the flu to essentially everybody in the world. Full stop.


Yes, very much this.

I'd just add that, assuming "healthy young person" - it's not just mortality... the difference also manifests - so far as I recall reading - by the same proportions for purposes of hospitalization.
   190. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:42 AM (#5946528)
I feel embarrassed to point this out since everybody except for "." been spending 6 weeks trying to convince "." that in fact we do try to limit influenza morbidity and mortality, by vaccination, developing drugs, etc. and unfortunately we still end up with quite a lot of it, and we have to live with it, as we do with other tradeoffs, and are you aware that that's across an entire year and not a period starting in late March when normally there's barely any flu at all, etc.

But I saw this week that the 25,000 to 60,000 flu deaths is an estimate, including lots of unexplained pneumonia and extrapolating even from that based on excess deaths and demographic factors to correct for the many people who never got tested, and the number of CONFIRMED flu deaths (to be compared to the 60,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths so far, and the further 60,000 to come in May and so on) has not been more than 15,000 in any of the last 6 years, and usually a lot less than that.
   191. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:42 AM (#5946530)
I said that snapper's idea was disconcerting, not evil or terrible or wrong or irrational. He's talking about consigning hundreds of thousands to death, and how it would be easier to do if we weren't entirely sure exactly how many there would be. Yes, I find that disconcerting. That shouldn't need explanation.
   192. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:42 AM (#5946531)
Hello all. I was worried when the old thread was locked, I'm so glad it survives here. I'm usually constantly behind on the thread and reading it here and there. I made a $20 BBTF site donation as a show of support.

I mentioned relatively early on, a month ago now, that my 85 year old aunt was in the hospital with the virus. She is still there, doing better, but can't pass three consecutive covid tests, a requirement of release. I wonder if that is a reflection of testing accuracy?

We are still soooooo early in fighting this thing. Even if we're still far away from a vaccine, our ability to diagnose and fight it is constantly improving. I'd rather get it 6 months from now than next week.

I agree with a lot of the gist of snapper's argument. SIP for 12 to 18 months is impossible. 200k-300k death is large but not insane if the alternative is a decade-long depression.

Is the stock market irrational? Even if it's forward-looking, the next decade of earnings looks very poor. I guess zero yielding fixed income aren't attractive either.

   193. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:45 AM (#5946532)
There is definitely going to be a second wave—we just know that that’s the nature of a pandemic. There is a mathematical certainty that as people start leaving their homes, as they start interacting with each other more, they will see a reemergence and a growth, again, of the coronavirus. And so what we should do is look to history: During the 1918 flu outbreak, in San Francisco, more people died in the second wave of infections than in the first. The reason why is, when the flu started spreading, officials said go into your homes and wear masks, and people listened. Things got better and started gradually reopening. Then a second wave began and the public health officials said, once more, go into your homes, wear masks. And people said they didn’t want to wear masks anymore. In fact, there were anti-mask riots in San Francisco.
In the fall—and Anthony Fauci has said this—there are going to be a lot more deaths. We are going to see the second wave of the coronavirus, particularly in those places that have not been hard hit so far. And in large part, it’s going to be because people spent a month or six weeks in their homes and then they were told, It’s OK to leave now but be wary and ready to go back inside. And they’re going to say, I don’t trust you
link
   194. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:46 AM (#5946533)
No metaphor is perfect but rather than accident fatalities generically, I might consider something like the Ford Pinto... Data becomes known - and available - that it has a propensity to, you know, blow up. People are better able to make choices, mitigation efforts (recalls, etc) are undertaken, etc.

That's because we can substitute another car for the Pinto with ease. We can't substitute a non-COVID world for the shitty COVID world we currently live in.

I'm all for providing the best risk mitigation advice we have that's consistent with a functioning society. I see no need to fixate on the exact odds of someone dying (which we won't ever know) or the total eventual death toll.
   195. bob gee Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:47 AM (#5946534)
NY deaths dropped 5% to 289. Schools closed for rest of school year, not a surprise.

   196. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:47 AM (#5946535)
I'd just add that, assuming "healthy young person" - it's not just mortality... the difference also manifests - so far as I recall reading - by the same proportions for purposes of hospitalization.


Also, for many healthy young people who get it but don't die, they are no longer healthy. If a 70 YO gets it and dies, the disease cut 10-15 years off their lifespan. For a 30 YO who gets it and does not die, the disease will cut 10-15 years off their lifespan. When the next thing comes around, they now have the dreaded underlying condition.
   197. Howie Menckel Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:48 AM (#5946536)
New York State Daily COVID-19 Death Toll

April 9 - 799, the high

April 12 - 671
April 13 - 778
April 14 - 752
April 15 - 606
April 16 - 630
April 17 - 540
April 18 - 507
April 19 - 478
April 20 - 481
April 21 - 474
April 22 - 415
April 23 - 422
April 24 - 437
April 25 - 367
April 26 - 337
April 27 - 335
April 28 - 330
April 29 - 306
April 30 - 289

MAY DAY!
MAY DAY!
MAY DAY!
   198. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:52 AM (#5946537)
I said that snapper's idea was disconcerting, not evil or terrible or wrong or irrational. He's talking about consigning hundreds of thousands to death, and how it would be easier to do if we weren't entirely sure exactly how many there would be. Yes, I find that disconcerting. That shouldn't need explanation.

It's a shitty spot we're in. It's certainly disconcerting.
   199. bobm Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:52 AM (#5946538)
It would seem to behoove public health officials to understand that true spread of it so that we could begin to estimate how truly bad it would be if 200 million Americans were to get it, and if "flattening the curve" needs to officially change to "actually reversing the curve until we have a vaccine."

What does "actually reversing the curve until we have a vaccine" mean?
   200. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:52 AM (#5946539)
Is the stock market irrational? Even if it's forward-looking, the next decade of earnings looks very poor. I guess zero yielding fixed income aren't attractive either.

My guess is the stock market is going up based on assessing the federal government's response so far and deciding that small companies are all going to go bankrupt and big companies, the ones that will survive an economic depression, will be able to buy up all their assets at a bargain. It seems like even big companies are at threat if they are in industries with no customers for the foreseeable future such as tourism, airlines, car rental, movies, but they may feel assured that the corporations themselves will be helped out by the government. Also if we were worrying about supply chains back in February, those are mostly in the hands of governments in Asia that are not going to experience a mass viral outbreak or the resulting depression, so not that much to worry about.

Also we all know a surefire way to get a stock to go up is to fire a bunch of people.... well when the whole economy fires 20 million people in a month, it sounds like a success story all around.
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