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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 10193 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   10001. SoSH U at work Posted: October 09, 2020 at 09:12 AM (#5981854)
Flip for five digits.
   10002. Tony S Posted: October 09, 2020 at 09:34 AM (#5981859)
The high-risk pool is larger than first thought.

It's going to be a rough winter.
   10003. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 09, 2020 at 03:14 PM (#5981967)
Nobel prize winner has unearthed a conspiracy! Why do excess deaths rise before actual deaths? What do "they" know, and when did "they" know it?

Someone should tell him the chart he's using lists excess deaths by date of actual death, while reported COVID deaths by date they were reported, usually a 10-14 days later, but sometimes much longer than that. Very easy to verify that actual COVID reported deaths were lowest the weeks of 6/20 and 6/27, while excess deaths were lowest the weeks of 6/13 and 6/20. If you really want to eyeball the curves, it's about a 5-day difference at the lowest point, which would be fairly remarkable if it lined up exactly.

Much more interestingly, the question is why is there a higher percentage of excess deaths in the second wave than the first? My personal belief is that it's mainly a function of which states/localities have been hit in each wave. In the first wave it was mostly blue states and big blue cities, and in the second wave mostly red or at least purple. In other words, how and whether you record a death as COVID is in large part political, and certain states such as Texas are much less likely to call something a COVID death. This phenomenon helps shift the excess death minimum point slightly earlier, as the blue state outbreaks shifted to red in late June, but it would be a minor effect.

There are other possible explanations for the excess deaths as a percentage of COVID deaths increasing, but most of them don't really explain why excess deaths are still (as far as I know) generally hitting only regions with current COVID poroblems, and not the others.
   10004. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 09, 2020 at 04:24 PM (#5981991)
Hospitalizations in Texas had dropped to 5% of available beds and have now risen back up to 6%.


20 percent rise? Yeah, that's significant. Not a crisis for beds with 94 percent open, but for a rise in the number of hospital cases it is.
   10005. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: October 09, 2020 at 04:39 PM (#5981995)
Hospitalizations in Texas had dropped to 5% of available beds and have now risen back up to 6%.

TX hospitalizations had been holding fairly steady around 3200 since 9/16, but the last 5 days (pending today's numbers) have gone 3192, 3318, 3394, 3519, 3556, but with no corresponding increase in positive test rate.
   10006. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 09, 2020 at 05:31 PM (#5982006)
https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-milwaukee-wisconsin-archive-61856a69ec6e9e6f032bb121b6d58a5d

Wisconsin activates field hospital as COVID keeps surging
By TODD RICHMOND
October 7, 2020

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Wisconsin health officials announced Wednesday that a field hospital will open next week at the state fairgrounds near Milwaukee as a surge in COVID-19 cases threatens to overwhelm hospitals.

Wisconsin has become a hot spot for the disease over the last month, ranking third nationwide this week in new cases per capita over the last two weeks. Health experts have attributed the spike to the reopening of colleges and K-12 schools as well as general fatigue over wearing masks and socially distancing.

State Department of Health Services Secretary Andrea Palm told reporters during a video conference that the facility will open on Oct. 14.

“We hoped this day wouldn’t come, but unfortunately, Wisconsin is in a much different, more dire place today and our healthcare systems are beginning to become overwhelmed by the surge of COVID-19 cases,” Democratic Gov. Tony Evers said in a statement. “This alternative care facility will take some of the pressure off our healthcare facilities while expanding the continuum of care for folks who have COVID-19.”

The move also came as a state judge was considering a lawsuit seeking to strike down Evers’ mandate that masks be worn in enclosed public spaces. The governor on Tuesday issued new restrictions on the size of indoor public gatherings through Nov. 6.

Only 16% of the state’s 11,452 hospital beds were available as of Tuesday afternoon, according to the DHS. The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients had grown to 853, it’s highest during the pandemic according to the COVID Tracking Project, with 216 in intensive care.


   10007. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: October 09, 2020 at 06:16 PM (#5982019)
3593 COVID hospitalizations in Texas as of today, an increase of 12.5% since Sunday.
   10008. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 09, 2020 at 06:53 PM (#5982028)
And I thought this week would be the last down week for reported deaths. Seems even that might have been too optimistic, as it now looks likely it will be flat or even slightly up, on both covid tracking project and worldometer.

Also looks likely that there will be even more cases reported today than yesterday's recent high.
   10009. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 09, 2020 at 07:23 PM (#5982034)
the spice covid must flow.

On Friday, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases chief Dr. Anthony Fauci told CBS News Radio that there was a “superspreader event at the White House”—specifically, the Sept. 26 ceremony in the Rose Garden. The president himself, as well as numerous White House aides and GOP politicians, tested positive for the virus in following weeks. In perhaps the least surprising move possible, Donald Trump wants a Round Two.

Three people “familiar with the plans” told the New York Times that the president is intent on personally addressing a crowd of hundreds from the South Lawn of the White House on Saturday, despite the obvious possibility that the virus isn’t done wreaking havoc on the premises. Saturday will mark 10 days since the president disclosed he tested positive for the covid-19, the length of time after which the CDC says most patients will not be infectious, though that timeline can be up to 20 days for serious cases.

   10010. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 09, 2020 at 08:11 PM (#5982047)
Saturday will mark 10 days since the president disclosed he tested positive for the covid-19, the length of time after which the CDC says most patients will not be infectious, though that timeline can be up to 20 days for serious cases.
8 days after he "disclosed" on Friday morning, but who is counting. I guess. 9 days after if you believe Trump first tested positive on Thursday.


Duration of isolation and precautions
For most persons with COVID-19 illness, isolation and precautions can generally be discontinued 10 days after symptom onset1 and resolution of fever for at least 24 hours, without the use of fever-reducing medications, and with improvement of other symptoms.
A limited number of persons with severe illness may produce replication-competent virus beyond 10 days that may warrant extending duration of isolation and precautions for up to 20 days after symptom onset; consider consultation with infection control experts.
For persons who never develop symptoms, isolation and other precautions can be discontinued 10 days after the date of their first positive RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 RNA.


10 days after is Sunday at the earliest.
   10011. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 09, 2020 at 11:15 PM (#5982146)
We're now estimated to have had 335,000 - 340,000 more deaths than we had by this time last year. Only about 315,000 - 320,000 excess deaths though, by my estimate, because 1) increase in expected deaths per year, mostly due to a larger US population (about 40,000 by my estimate) takes that number down to about 295,000 - 300,000, and 2) less severe flu season in 2020 v 2019 increase it back up to around 315,000 to 320,000.

   10012. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 10, 2020 at 12:44 AM (#5982211)
How much weight should we give the "pull forward" effect (COVID deaths are really people who would have died soon anyway)? It's very hard to know exactly, but the answer is surely: not too much.

We can try to put some numbers on NYC. Currently about 27,100 excess deaths, almost all by mid-June, with about 23,900 which will be reported through this week. If we assume 28,000 total deaths (17% more than reported), that means 900 "pull-forward" in about 5 months, or 180 per month.

NYC has reported over 1120 deaths since June 14. If we again assume 17% more, unreported, that puts us at 1310 total. With only 550 excess deaths since June 14, that indicates a "pull-forward effect of 760 in 4 months, roughly in the same ballpark.

The excess deaths during the 6 peak weeks in NYC was under 20%, so this is pretty reasonable.

760 in 4 months is 2300 per year, or about 1/12 of the total. This is very roughly consistent with COVID knocking 5 to 10 years off an average victim's life (12 years worth, so half in 6 years), maybe closer to 10 years once you factor in that the pull-forward effect should have a larger impact in the earlier years, so the rate should slow down each year.

These are all very rough estimates, and it could be that the pull-forward effect is stronger in winter, when the old and infirm tend to die at higher rates. Also when you get down to a couple hundred per month in a city of 8+ million, the excess deaths from COVID could be swamped by other non-COVID factors in both directions, both positive and negative, so it's hard to really say whether the 760 fewer deaths is meaningful.
   10013. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 10, 2020 at 01:29 AM (#5982215)
This study estimates 11.7 years lost per death.

To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 2.94 y) and remaining life years (11.7 y per death). Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality in other countries are quite similar and increase at rates close to each country’s rate for all-cause mortality. The scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths is similar in scale to that of the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than that of the Spanish flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in a period of months rather than spread out over decades.


Running my same numbers in 10012, and assuming 92% or so as many die each succeeding year, and cutting it off after 60 more years, I get the median person dying from COVID 8.5 years early, and the mean number of years lost as about 12.4 years (due to the long tail), which is surprisingly similar to the numbers from the study above. Using actual distributions rather than my method would reduce the mean a bit but probably not the median by much.

edit: just to be clear, my above calculations are rough estimates with massive assumptions, so I don't claim any precision. The one thing that is clear is that NYC, after having 28,000 or so deaths by early June, still has excess deaths each and every week. This means the pull forward effect cannot be very large. As the above paper mentions, that's true all over the world as well.
   10014. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 10, 2020 at 01:58 AM (#5982216)
Median age of COVID death for reported cases in the USA is around 77. Average life expectancy at that age is a little over 11 years, so 8.5 years lost for the mean is plausible. It becomes even more likely if we think excess deaths as a percentage of known deaths is higher for younger cohorts, for which there is some evidence. That would bring the mean age of COVID deaths down. If it were 75 instead of 77, the mean life expectancy would have been a little over 12. In either case, the virus would be affecting the less healthy at an old age, but not strictly only the ones on their deathbeds.
   10015. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 10, 2020 at 06:28 PM (#5982331)
Mentioned this yesterday, but one very notable phenomenon is that, except for the age group under 25, for which there really aren't any excess deaths this year (again, the children exception), the older the US population surveyed, the higher the fraction of excess deaths are reported as COVID. This is most likely because there are fewer missed COVID-related deaths, the older the group being looked at, but there could be other explanations as well.

Very rough numbers (excess up until about a few weeks ago, and reported to last week, so roughly the same time period):
              excess         COVID        % more excess

 0-24                          500
25-44         20,000         5,500        265%
45-64         53,500        36,000         50%
65-74         62,500        43,000         45%
75-84         70,500        52,500         35%
85 and up     75,000        61,000         25%

total        281,500       199,000         40%
   10016. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 10, 2020 at 06:54 PM (#5982335)
Oops, the above was wring, I was looking at a single state for under 25. Here it is, revised.

Very rough numbers (excess up until about a few weeks ago, and reported to last week, so roughly the same time period):
              excess         COVID        % more excess

 0-24          1,250           500        150%
25-44         20,000         5,500        265%
45-64         53,500        36,000         50%
65-74         62,500        43,000         45%
75-84         70,500        52,500         35%
85 and up     75,000        61,000         25%

total        283,000       199,000         42%
   10017. Lassus Posted: October 11, 2020 at 08:06 AM (#5982366)
Trump tested positive, had zero to mild symptoms, panicked himself into worse symptoms, ordered himself excessive medicines, and is where he is.
   10018. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2020 at 08:12 AM (#5982367)
Re-doing the same exercise but adjusting for increase in populations and trendlines per agegroup gives slightly different numbers. The main reason is that the age-groups from 65-74 and 75-84 have increased significantly on a percentage level each year over the last 5 years, while the other age groups have not. (45-64 and over 85 have both increased slightly, while 0-24 has decreased slightly).

Doing it this way the oldest age group has more deaths unattributed to COVID. There is still a trend towards many more (on a percentage level) excess deaths in the younger age groups.

Very rough numbers (excess up until about a few weeks ago, and reported to last week, so roughly the same time period):

              excess         COVID        % more excess

 0-24          1,750           500        250%
25-44         16,500         5,500        200%
45-64         52,500        36,000         45%
65-74         55,000        43,000         30%
75-84         56,000        52,500         10%
85 and up     83,000        61,000         35%

total        265,000       199,000         33%
   10019. Thok Posted: October 11, 2020 at 10:45 AM (#5982372)
Considering that excess deaths seem to hit non-old people at a higher rate (possibly because a higher percentage of their COVID deaths are from strokes and other harder-to-identify phenomena), if you use excess deaths, the 18-49 group is likely to be even closer.


I wouldn't be shocked to learn that an increased rate of suicide/domestic violence/alcohol poisoning was some of the reason for the increase in age 25-44 excess death count; unfortunately the stay-at-home orders and economic crash are causing all of those factors to increase this year. That's probably not enough to explain all 66000 missing excess deaths in the US, but might reasonably explain a third of that number.
   10020. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2020 at 11:40 AM (#5982375)
This definitely wasn't evident in March-June, when almost all the excess deaths were only in areas where there were big COVID outbreaks (none in places that lockdowns but little COVID). Same is true in other countries, where lockdowns combined with low COVID resulted in no excess deaths.

There is still a legitimate question as to whether anything changed in the US post mid-June, and I'd like to see, or run, numbers on that. Most interesting would be to determine if the excess deaths in the 25-44 range were coming mostly from areas with large current outbreaks.

I would put the number of "missing deaths" at around 80,000 or so right now: 320,000 excess deaths through today, with (by Worldometer), 220,000 reported. That number should go up more than 10,000 more in the next 2 weeks, and then higher again over time as they back fill deaths.
   10021. SoSH U at work Posted: October 11, 2020 at 11:49 AM (#5982376)
I wouldn't be shocked to learn that an increased rate of suicide/domestic violence/alcohol poisoning was some of the reason for the increase in age 25-44 excess death count; unfortunately the stay-at-home orders and economic crash are causing all of those factors to increase this year. That's probably not enough to explain all 66000 missing excess deaths in the US, but might reasonably explain a third of that number.


I would assume that would be somewhat offset by fewer fatal traffic accidents and work accidents.
   10022. Ron J Posted: October 11, 2020 at 12:05 PM (#5982377)
#10021 I was under the impression that we had good numbers of travel/work deaths and suicides.

And that the number we have did not in fact point to an increase in suicides. I do know that domestic violence numbers are up. And I wouldn't be surprised to see alcohol related issues up.
   10023. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2020 at 12:11 PM (#5982378)
NYC reported and excess deaths by age group. Definitely not showing the major effect seen in other places. My guess is good recording of COVID deaths makes up the bulk of the difference, and these other factors are much smaller.

                 excess        reported      % more excess             

 0-44            1,200              950         25%
45-65            5,550            5,300          5%
65-74            6,300            5,750         10%
75 and up       14,100           11,900         20%

total           27,150           23,900         15%
   10024. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2020 at 12:25 PM (#5982379)
Most of the 0-44 excess deaths came before June 14, during the COVID peak in NYC. About 4/5 in the first half, and about 1/5 since. There is probably little to none "pull-forward" effect in this age group, and these also make up 90% of the workers that continued to circulate in their jobs, so these numbers aren't particularly surprising or lead to an indication of any large cohort of non-COVID deaths.

Excess deaths have gone to 0 in NYC for people in the 75-84 bracket since mid-June, and are slightly negative for those over 85. Definitely the pull-forward effect in action, as probably almost all the 750 (as roughly estimated above) pull-forward deaths are from these age groups.

Excess deaths for people under 44 are still potentially a tad high outside the NYC peak, considering the extent of NYC's current outbreak (low overall), so there may be evidence for some slight effect of non-COVID deaths.
   10025. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 11, 2020 at 01:25 PM (#5982381)
Much more interestingly, the question is why is there a higher percentage of excess deaths in the second wave than the first?

Excess deaths as a percentage of what? Reported COVID deaths?
   10026. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2020 at 01:31 PM (#5982382)
Through May 15 for NYC age group 0-44:

reported deaths: 722
excess deaths: 829 (15% undercount, more or less consistent with NYC over all)

After May 15 for NYC age group 0-44:
reported deaths: 188 (the 950 number above is an error, it should be 910, based on NYC website)
excess deaths: 353 (60% undercount)

If you assume the undercount for the later stage should be 15%, roughly consistent with NYC all along, that leaves a little under 140 excess deaths not explained by the expected undercount. If you were to assume the same for the US population, it would be about 5,500 people, or probably about 40% of the unexplained excess in the 0-44 age group, once you adjust up for the missed weeks.

Seems reasonable, but the numbers should be thought of as being for illustrative purposes only. They could be off by 100% or more in either direction.
   10027. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2020 at 01:31 PM (#5982383)
Excess deaths as a percentage of what? Reported COVID deaths?
yes. In May, excess deaths were running at about 20% more than reported deaths. Since then they've been 50% more. There was a major transitional point in mid-June after the first wave, that has continued on through the second wave and trough.

(This is important, because if the excess, as a percentage of reported, increased during toughs and decreased during peaks of reported deaths, it would imply a constant factor unrelated to COVID epidemic. That's clearly not evident, at least yet.)

So, what happened after the first wave was over? A number of things--one is major geographical shift, another is probably a minor change in the incidence of those infected (not reported as infected, but actually infected), as older people became much more careful and younger people became somewhat more careful about behavior.
   10028. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 11, 2020 at 01:40 PM (#5982385)
Are you including "probable" COVID deaths in your reported number? Because only certain places (NYC, NJ and CT I believe being among them, FL and TX I believe not) so as the epicenter of the pandemic shifted that would explain part of the change you're describing.

If you are including probable deaths and could easily subtract them out, you might be able to see whether that was responsible for the difference.
   10029. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2020 at 01:51 PM (#5982386)
Yes, I was including probables for NYC. Doesn't change the overall story if you don't include them though.

                 excess        confirmed      % more excess             

 0-44            1,200              750         65%
45-65            5,550            4,300         30%
65-74            6,300            4,750         33%
75 and up       14,100            9,400         65%

total           27,150           19,200         40%

   10030. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2020 at 02:03 PM (#5982387)
Oh, maybe you mean that NYC itself changed how they reported deaths, and listed no more probables after May 15 or so. This is actually true. So, assuming NYC didn't get better at identifying what would formerly have been probable cases (probably a dubious assumption, but possible), the confirmed cases were about 615 out of 829, or an undercount of 35%, again more or less in line with the 40% for the city as a whole.

Going forward, if we use an undercount of 35-40%, we have about 90-100 unexplained deaths in the 0-44 range, or about 3,500-4,000 extrapolated out to the country as a whole.
   10031. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 11, 2020 at 10:34 PM (#5982482)
An open letter that made headlines calling for a herd immunity approach to Covid-19 lists a number of apparently fake names among its expert signatories, including “Dr Johnny Bananas” and “Professor Cominic Dummings”.

The Great Barrington declaration, which was said to have been signed by more than 15,000 scientists and medical practitioners around the world, was found by Sky News to contain numerous false names, as well as those of several homeopaths.

Others listed include a resident at the “university of your mum” and another supposed specialist whose name was the first verse of the Macarena.

link

Dale a tu cuerpo alegria Macarena?
Hey Macarena!
   10032. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 12, 2020 at 02:13 PM (#5982605)

Oh, maybe you mean that NYC itself changed how they reported deaths, and listed no more probables after May 15 or so. This is actually true. So, assuming NYC didn't get better at identifying what would formerly have been probable cases (probably a dubious assumption, but possible), the confirmed cases were about 615 out of 829, or an undercount of 35%, again more or less in line with the 40% for the city as a whole.


I don't know, I was thinking more in terms of national numbers. If the first wave was focused in states that reported "probable" COVID deaths, and the second wave was focused in states that didn't, then you would expect that there would be more unreported COVID deaths during the second wave (i.e., "excess deaths" would exceed reported COVID deaths by a greater percentage). I don't think this would explain changes in the percentage within a single state that did not change its reporting methodology.

I apologize if I'm missing something (I haven't gone through your posts in detail), but I think that there's more potential for noise in the numbers when COVID deaths are very low. Imagine some exogenous factor (or combination of factors) that was resulting in an extra 5 deaths per day across the city relative to the baseline. When NYC was reporting 700+ COVID deaths per day, such a factor would be an insignificant contributor to excess deaths as a percentage of reported COVID deaths. But when the city is only reporting ~10 COVID deaths per day, suddenly an extra 5 can make it look like 50% excess COVID deaths that aren't being reported.

I mean, there's a fair amount of uncertainty in these numbers to begin with -- in reality excess deaths should be reported as a range since the baseline is uncertain, right?
   10033. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 12, 2020 at 02:24 PM (#5982608)
Dale a tu cuerpo alegria Macarena?
Hey Macarena!
...which will be in my head for the rest of the day, if not the week. All of your great work on this thread has been completely destroyed. Damn you and all of your offspring and all of their offspring to eternal hellfire.
   10034. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 12, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5982620)
I mean, there's a fair amount of uncertainty in these numbers to begin with -- in reality excess deaths should be reported as a range since the baseline is uncertain, right?

Definitely! I'd probably even be happy to do it myself if I didn't have another job I've already worked over 2000 hours on this year.

One note though is that if there were a large constant baseline of additional deaths that are happening this year due factors across the US but not directly associated with regions heavily hit by COVID, we would expect excess deaths, as a percentage of COVID deaths, to go up when COVID deaths go down, and vice versa. We'd also expect these deaths to be more or less constant across all regions, but instead they seem to be heavier in the regions that are hit heavier by COVID.

I spent like 5 hours the last 2 days trying to figure out how to get good data on "external cause of death" from the CDC, to try to figure out if homicides/suicides/overdoses/accidents are up meaningfully since June. It's actually very hard to determine, because these types of deaths lag much more than natural causes. Depending on the adjustment factor you use, you can show negative such deaths, or 30,000 or more. The fact that these have also been going up in recent years, a trend that was expected to continue this year, is peanuts (probably plus/minus a few thousand at most) in comparison to the adjustment.

If I had the weekly excel files going back the last few months from the CDC I could probably make a somewhat accurate estimate, but I don't, and am not sure how to get them.
   10035. SoSH U at work Posted: October 12, 2020 at 03:44 PM (#5982627)
Definitely! I'd probably even be happy to do it myself if I didn't have another job I've already worked over 2000 hours on this year.


Posting COVID data to BTF isn't your primary job?
   10036. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 13, 2020 at 02:51 AM (#5982749)
I was able to fortuitously pull one of the relevant old CDC .xls files off twitter--from 22 weeks ago. It gives some idea, preliminary, of the delay factor for non-natural causes. Running the numbers with the effective delay shown between that table and the current one, I got around 10,000 non-natural excess deaths for the country during the COVID epidemic. Since this is a rough estimate could be double that, or none. That's all age groups, so maybe half again that number in the 25-44 age bracket. Roughly consistent with NYC.

We should get a much better idea in a month or two, because the delay on non-natural causes goes to close to 0 after 30 weeks or so. Right at the start of this epidemic, notably. I've seen some analysis that shows a very steady increase of non-natural deaths since about 30 weeks ago. While obviously that could be happening, it's actually strongly indicative of a consistent bias in lag factor. This is especially likely to be the case since we don;t see excess deaths in the 25-44 age group rising like that--they have been relatively constant since the start of the outbreak, with very slight peaks corresponding to the COVID peaks.
   10037. Thok Posted: October 13, 2020 at 09:15 AM (#5982759)
I spent like 5 hours the last 2 days trying to figure out how to get good data on "external cause of death" from the CDC, to try to figure out if homicides/suicides/overdoses/accidents are up meaningfully since June. It's actually very hard to determine, because these types of deaths lag much more than natural causes. Depending on the adjustment factor you use, you can show negative such deaths, or 30,000 or more. The fact that these have also been going up in recent years, a trend that was expected to continue this year, is peanuts (probably plus/minus a few thousand at most) in comparison to the adjustment.


I wouldn't actually spend that much time on this; to a first approximation the important thing is that these factors can't really explain the missing excess deaths, and that any increase in these sorts of deaths is dwarfed by the number of COVID deaths prevented by lockdown measures.
   10038. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 13, 2020 at 10:38 AM (#5982771)
Homicides do seem to be up, at least in major cities. NYC homicides are up by 92 year-over-year. In Washington DC they're up by 22. Chicago had 91 more homicides in the first half of this year vs. first half of last year. LA has seen an increase of 40 homicides year-over-year as of late September. Atlanta had more homicides through Oct. 1, 2020 than it did in all of 2019. In Detroit, they are up 23% year-over-year. In Miami they are up by 18. In St. Louis they are up by 16. Baltimore is the only place I searched where the number has come down this year.


There have also been articles about the rise in overdose deaths. That seems to be a continuation of a trend from 2019.

I don't think these items can explain all the excess deaths, especially when you consider that other non-natural deaths like car accidents should be down. But worth noting.
   10039. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 13, 2020 at 11:27 AM (#5982774)

So what's going on in Europe? Cases have been rising in a number of countries for over a month now. Deaths haven't risen as much as I might have expected but the trend still doesn't look good in a number of these countries. Are people just not abiding by the mask and other restrictions anymore? Is this tied to schools reopening?

I had been hoping that Europe had shown us a path to getting this thing under control and then returning to some semblance of normal life while we wait for a vaccine. I guess much of Asia still shows us that, but the recent trends in Europe have been disheartening.
   10040. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 13, 2020 at 12:02 PM (#5982782)
There's been a very prominent trend of increasing non-natural deaths over the last 6 years (as far back as the recent data tables go, which likely would have continued this year even without COVID--in fact if anything seemed to have accelerated in the first 10 weeks of the year (pre-COVID). A small part of this change is population growth in the 25-44 range, which has gone up about 1% per year since 2014. But 0-25 and 45-64 have gone down slightly, so population growth only explains maybe 20% of the effect, and cannot be the primary reason. Also, the summer months are the highest for these deaths.

          non-natural          summer
year      deaths per week      weeks only

2014      3,898                3984
2015      4,181                4351
2016      4,531                4680
2017      4,788                4895
2018      4,746                4911
2019      4,853                5014



   10041. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: October 13, 2020 at 12:57 PM (#5982789)
So what's going on in Europe? Cases have been rising in a number of countries for over a month now. Deaths haven't risen as much as I might have expected but the trend still doesn't look good in a number of these countries. Are people just not abiding by the mask and other restrictions anymore? Is this tied to schools reopening?


Schools and universities are re-opening, and people are spending less time outside (we had a fairly miserable run of weather over the last couple of weeks here in Germany). Predictable, perhaps inevitable. Some countries have seen very rapid acceleration in cases (Netherlands, France, UK) and some slower increases (Germany is one, Italy put off the rise for a while but is now seeing growth again). It looks like new lockdowns are coming for most countries, and I expect borders to start going up again for most countries.

I was a little surprised that the summer holidays didn't directly lead to an increase, but it looks like the effect there was minimal, or else somehow delayed. Governments are trying to put off the lockdown decision through half-measures in some areas - Johnson just announced some in England - but I'm expecting for them to have to give up and go to a harder lockdown in the next 6 weeks, as even their own scientific advisors seem to be openly saying that the new measures won't have sufficient effect.

The mortality rate should be lower than March/April due to better treatments and a less intense infection rate growth, so it's more controlled, but it's still a choice between bad and worse for most countries. Including Sweden - reportedly Anders Tegnell has expressed surprise that the current growth in Swedish cases appears to be focused in the same areas of the country where infections were most densely clustered in spring. In other words, no herd immunity in Stockholm yet. Cases in Sweden have nearly quadrupled since the start of September, about the same as Denmark and Norway. (Denmark actually had a higher spike two weeks ago, but has seen a decline again more recently.)
   10042. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 13, 2020 at 01:11 PM (#5982792)
Denialists are citing this paper as saying that 26% of the excess deaths are due to lockdowns. The paper says npthing about lockdowns, and does not state what the source of the excess deaths is at all. However, with statements like the below, the paper implies the deaths are for the most part related to the disease itself and not to the societal response to the disease in those not infected.

“Counties with high levels of COVID-19 mortality also had exceptionally high levels of mortality in 2020 from other causes of death,” says study senior author Samuel H. Preston, a UPenn professor of sociology. “This result suggests that the epidemic is responsible for many more deaths than are attributed to COVID-19 alone.


As noted earlier, excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19 could include deaths involving Covid19 that were misclassified to other causes of death and deaths indirectly related to the Covid-19 pandemic. The NCHS has made an effort to examine excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19 by
cause of death. As of September 24, 2020, NCHS has attributed 28,797 excess deaths to Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias, 16,040 excess deaths to hypertensive diseases, 11,222 excess deaths to ischemic heart disease, 10,285 excess deaths to diabetes, and 3,056 excess deaths to influenza and pneumonia.29 These estimates suggest that the majority of excess deaths identified in this study were likely assigned to Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias or various circulatory diseases and diabetes. It is possible that a substantial fraction of the deaths
of individuals with pre-existing chronic conditions who acquire Covid-19 and die as a result are ascribed to the pre-existing condition. These may constitute many of the excess deaths not attributed to Covid-19.

Areas with an exceptionally high number of excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19 may reflect a lack of testing facilities or co-morbidities that acquire priority in the assignment of cause of death. Indirect deaths, such as suicide or drug overdose and deaths related to reduced use of
health care services, may also be higher in these areas. The frequency of excess deaths not attributed to Covid-19 was higher in some midwestern and southern states. These geographic distinctions may be associated with testing, diagnostic, and coding differences that have yet to be identified. They could also relate to how governors have approached the reopening of the economy and enforcement of public health provisions such as social distancing and mask wearing.32,33 Analyses of multiple cause-of-death data, when available, will help shed additional light on the contribution of Covid-19 to US mortality.

   10043. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 13, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5982794)
reportedly Anders Tegnell has expressed surprise that the current growth in Swedish cases appears to be focused in the same areas of the country where infections were most densely clustered in spring.


Same in Spain, and in many other parts of the world, as well, even in places like Manaus where up to 50% of the people were said to have been infected. In Manaus in particular it might be driven by COVID finally getting a foothold among the wealthier parts of the population.

In Manaus, daily burials and cremations dropped from about 350 at the May peak to fewer than 90 last month. But cases have surged again in recent weeks and deaths increased for the first time since April, according to data from the Manaus prefecture.
   10044. Jay Z Posted: October 13, 2020 at 01:31 PM (#5982796)
It looks like new lockdowns are coming for most countries, and I expect borders to start going up again for most countries.


Why put borders up again? That is just theatrics at this point. The virus is everywhere already. It isn't March any more.

Ammo to fight the situation is limited. I don't want to waste any more of it on pointless measures. There is going to be enough pushback against things that actually matter.
   10045. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: October 13, 2020 at 01:39 PM (#5982797)
Why put borders up again? That is just theatrics at this point. The virus is everywhere already. It isn't March any more.


Generals are always ready to fight the last war. (Border restrictions are probably one of the few tools in the chest that will be popular with the populists.)
   10046. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 13, 2020 at 02:23 PM (#5982808)
This is a cool graphic comparing state by state growth:

https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june
   10047. Ron J Posted: October 13, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5982814)
1044 But it's not equally bad everywhere.

Florida for instance should have no reservations about taking a random Canadian. Not so much the other way.
   10048. bunyon Posted: October 13, 2020 at 03:18 PM (#5982822)
Ron J, it's not logical, it's emotional. Most people I talk to in the US assume we can't travel because we closed the border. They just can't fathom that other nations wouldn't want us.


I think I'm starting to finally accept that I'm not seeing the eclipse in Argentina in December. Maybe.
   10049. puck Posted: October 13, 2020 at 04:07 PM (#5982832)
This is a cool graphic comparing state by state growth:

https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june


That's something for North Dakota to be leading in new cases.
   10050. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 13, 2020 at 05:40 PM (#5982843)
Schools and universities are re-opening, and people are spending less time outside (we had a fairly miserable run of weather over the last couple of weeks here in Germany). Predictable, perhaps inevitable. Some countries have seen very rapid acceleration in cases (Netherlands, France, UK) and some slower increases (Germany is one, Italy put off the rise for a while but is now seeing growth again). It looks like new lockdowns are coming for most countries, and I expect borders to start going up again for most countries.

But I mean, are people wearing masks? I know masks aren't foolproof but I'm surprised at the extent of the cases if people are wearing them. Anecdotally I've heard that compliance is low among young people, however.

It just seems like a few weeks of bad weather isn't sufficient to explain what's going on. On a per capita basis, a lot of European countries don't look that much better than the US right now.
   10051. Ron J Posted: October 13, 2020 at 06:45 PM (#5982859)
Covid fatigue seems to be a real thing now. Not so much anti-mask as ... enough people can't be bothered. Or decided we "won" a couple of months ago. Or ... well variations on those themes. At heart it's complacency.
   10052. RJ in TO Posted: October 13, 2020 at 07:29 PM (#5982872)
That's something for North Dakota to be leading in new cases.
It's cases per million. It doesn't take many for North Dakota to shoot up the rankings when using that metric.
   10053. puck Posted: October 13, 2020 at 08:51 PM (#5982884)
It's cases per million


That makes more sense. I was thinking those were absolute numbers and thinking North Dakota is completely overrun.
   10054. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 13, 2020 at 09:36 PM (#5982887)
Per capita is per capita. It is pretty incredible that North Dakota has the per capita lead. A state like ND had every built-in advantage possible. The virus arrived to the inland states last. They don't have the large population centers where it seems to spread more easily. They got to see it ravage Europe, then NYC, then all over the country. They had time to PLAN.

Instead, their response was the typical GOP-led denial of reality, and their populace is paying for it.

Its all a ###### shame.


   10055. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 13, 2020 at 11:37 PM (#5982907)
The White House has embraced a declaration by a group of scientists arguing that authorities should allow the coronavirus to spread among young healthy people while protecting the elderly and the vulnerable — an approach that would rely on arriving at “herd immunity” through infections rather than a vaccine.


from the declaration,
A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.


Also possible: mask wearing,contact tracing, avoiding close contact at large gatherings. We know things are possible, we know, too that there is minimal government commitment to implementing them in most of the US and perhaps not much higher commitment to following them.

What we don't know is where that immunity level is or how many more deaths we're talking about. But they're expendable.
   10056. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 14, 2020 at 12:22 AM (#5982921)
That's the same one from 10031, which has been making the rounds in denialists circles.

Hey Macarena!
   10057. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 14, 2020 at 12:45 AM (#5982924)
Signed by Bhattacharya and Levitt, but of course.
   10058. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: October 14, 2020 at 03:25 AM (#5982926)
But I mean, are people wearing masks? I know masks aren't foolproof but I'm surprised at the extent of the cases if people are wearing them. Anecdotally I've heard that compliance is low among young people, however.

It just seems like a few weeks of bad weather isn't sufficient to explain what's going on. On a per capita basis, a lot of European countries don't look that much better than the US right now.


People are wearing masks inside, where I am, almost 100% (shop workers are sometimes behind a partition or wearing a face shield instead). I'd estimate 10-20% are wearing masks outdoors in crowded shopping streets where I live. But I live in a relatively affluent, cosmopolitan, and left-leaning part of Germany, and I'm not about to go far outside the city limits in the next 6 months, I expect. First Thanksgiving with the extended family I'll miss for quite a while.

My best guess would be universities starting up again, which means a lot of party-goers in major cities (Berlin has a real problem with infections spreading via nightclubs, I'm told). Unlike a lot of US colleges, most European campuses are embedded within towns and cities, and many students live at home, so the potential to take infections back into households is very high. Add in higher population density, more use of public transport, and a widespread drinking culture that starts openly at younger ages . . . quite a few factors that make September/October a natural start for a second wave over here.
   10059. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: October 14, 2020 at 06:40 AM (#5982927)
Interesting thread on IMF findings relating to lockdowns here:

- Yes, lockdowns do economic damage (duh)
- But significant growth in cases does more damage as people self-adjust their levels of participation in society
- Which means that relaxing restrictions doesn't help economies much unless underlying infection rates have significantly improved
- Mild, long lockdowns seem to be associated with a long tail of economic damage, while shorter, sharper lockdowns may achieve a better balance of case reduction vs. economic harm

With the obvious caveats that all of this data is deeply interlinked and incomplete, and that 'long-term' isn't really anything we have data on yet in a reliable sense. The above may lend some weight to the idea of 'circuit-breaker' short lockdowns that seem to be gaining adherents in Europe. Notable that in the UK, for example, these are polling better than longer-term, milder restrictions.
   10060. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 14, 2020 at 09:15 AM (#5982934)

#10058 thanks, if nightclubs and bars are open that sort of answers my question.

The WSJ has an article out this morning on the outbreak in Europe. Ultimately deaths are a more relevant statistic than cases, but when I look at the shape of that curve of cases in Europe it's pretty alarming, given that it's rising exponentially and we know deaths lag behind cases.

The White House has embraced a declaration by a group of scientists arguing that authorities should allow the coronavirus to spread among young healthy people while protecting the elderly and the vulnerable — an approach that would rely on arriving at “herd immunity” through infections rather than a vaccine.

This was basically the Florida strategy but they've had 6,000+ deaths in senior care facilities. Staff still get infected and bring it into the facilities even if you don't allow visitors. It's better than doing nothing at all, and maybe it's better than full lockdowns given the economic hardship those cause, but people should be honest about what the results will be.
   10061. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: October 14, 2020 at 09:41 AM (#5982938)
The White House has embraced a declaration by a group of scientists arguing that authorities should allow the coronavirus to spread among young healthy people while protecting the elderly and the vulnerable — an approach that would rely on arriving at “herd immunity” through infections rather than a vaccine.

This was basically the Florida strategy but they've had 6,000+ deaths in senior care facilities. Staff still get infected and bring it into the facilities even if you don't allow visitors. It's better than doing nothing at all, and maybe it's better than full lockdowns given the economic hardship those cause, but people should be honest about what the results will be.


This is the crux: everyone is in favour of shielding the vulnerable while allowing the rest of the population freedom. It's great! Less economic damage, fewer deaths, and possibly herd immunity down the line. The problem is that no-one seems to have worked out how do to that, so as much as we might like to eat more, exercise less, and still lose weight, similarly I think we should have a presumption that the equivalent in Covid-19 terms is not attainable until someone proves otherwise.
   10062. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 14, 2020 at 09:42 AM (#5982939)
arguing that authorities should allow the coronavirus to spread among young healthy people while protecting the elderly and the vulnerable

We have shown zero ability to protect the elderly and the vulnerable.

This is fantasy land bullshit.




   10063. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 14, 2020 at 09:49 AM (#5982940)
There was a holiday this week, so everything is delayed again. Should take about 3 weeks to sort it, if the past is any indication. Pretty evident that we are likely much worse off coming out of this holiday than the last one.

                  week ending     weeks          total
Date of           actual date     back           deaths
report            of death                       recorded


8/26              8/22            1              15,268
9/02              8/29            1              16,387
9/09              9/05            1              11,500 (approximate. post-Labor Day effect)
9/16              9/12            1              14,321 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/19            1              15,491
9/30              9/26            1              16,957 
10/07             10/03           1              17,485
10/14             10/10           1              14,788 (post-Columbus Day effect)

9/02              8/22            2              38,041
9/09              8/29            2              34,320 (post-Labor Day)
9/16              9/12            2              33,560 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/12            2              36,423
9/30              9/19            2              38,746
10/07             9/26            2              39,849
10/14            10/03            2              37,639 (post-Columbus Day)

9/09              8/22            3              48,804 (post-Labor Day effect)
9/16              8/29            3              46,945 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/05            3              47.160
9/30              9/12            3              48,073
10/07             9/19            3              48,899
10/14             9/26            3              49,078 (post-Columbus Day)

9/16              8/22            4              53,771
9/23              8/29            4              52,810
9/30              9/05            4              52,108
10/07             9/12            4              52,022
10/14             9/19            4              52,230

9/23              8/22            5              56,502
9/30              8/29            5              55,288
10/07             9/05            5              54,246
10/14             9/12            5              53,766

9/30              8/22            6              58,092
10/07             8/29            6              56,629
10/14             9/05            6              55,299

10/07             8/22            7              59,155
10/14             8/29            7              57,340

10/14             8/22            8              59,922

   10064. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 14, 2020 at 11:19 AM (#5982968)
CDC's latest excess death numbers are out. After adjusting for normal lag plus holiday lag, they are over 330,000 by today, so more than 1 per 1000 people. Due to the holiday lag, we again have 10,000 fewer than expected reported deaths for this week, which will likely be made up in the next 2 to 3 weeks, as happened after Labor Day.

(Because of the holiday lag, get ready for another round of "the virus is over as of two weeks ago". Yes, this will happen even though cases and hospitalizations are on a rapid climb.)

   10065. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 14, 2020 at 11:21 AM (#5982970)

The White House has embraced a declaration by a group of scientists arguing that authorities should allow the coronavirus to spread among young healthy people while protecting the elderly and the vulnerable — an approach that would rely on arriving at “herd immunity” through infections rather than a vaccine.


If it's this one, it's not by 'a group of scientists'. The organization that put it out has no scientific or medical credentials, and anyone can sign; there are plenty of fake names and non-experts who are among the signatories. David Gorski has a good comment on this strategy, frequently used by pseudoscientists and crackpots.
   10066. BrianBrianson Posted: October 14, 2020 at 11:44 AM (#5982977)
Paris is pretty good for masks (but not perfect), but restaurants and for a while bars being open of course limits that. I've heard from travellers (not, uhm, Gypsies, just people who've been travelling) that it's much worse in the south of France, and Bordeaux and Marseilles are the cities that I understand are worst off.

So ... Macron is supposed to have another press conference tonight, and the expectation is that restrictions will be tightening.
   10067. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 14, 2020 at 11:56 AM (#5982987)
In Europe, are there denialists (or others with political motivations) suing to try to prevent restrictions from taking effect? Or is that our own little special thing here?
   10068. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: October 14, 2020 at 12:01 PM (#5982990)
In Europe, are there denialists (or others with political motivations) suing to try to prevent restrictions from taking effect? Or is that our own little special thing here?


Certainly, but they're usually on a shakier legal basis, and there's definitely a really strong overlap between far-right organisations, denialisms, and woo-peddlers/anti-vaxxers. So they're taken less seriously. The minimalist government/libertarians have a presence, but are largely swamped by the former groups.
   10069. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 14, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5983008)
Excess deaths per 1000 people, projected out through the end of this week (10/17/2020). A rough estimate, as always, due to all the reporting lag. Probably about 19 states now have at least 1 excess death per 1000 people.

Now ordered by percent excess above expected baseline, starting March 1, 2020. The USA as a whole is about +19% since March 1, or about 45,000 per month.


                 % excess          per
                 since 3/01        thousand

New York          +44.0%           2.15
New Jersey        +41.0%           2.10
D.C.              +35.5%           1.85

Connecticut       +29.0%           1.60
Louisiana         +28.0%           1.75

Mississippi       +25.5%           1.70 
Arizona           +25.0%           1.35

Massachusetts     +23.0%           1.25
Texas             +23.0%           1.00
Delaware          +22.5%           1.35
South Carolina    +22.0%           1.30
Maryland          +22.0%           1.15
Michigan          +21.0%           1.25
Illinois          +21.0%           1.05

Georgia           +20.0%           1.05
Alabama           +19.0%           1.25
Florida           +19.0%           1.15
Vermont           +18.5%           1.05
Rhode Island      +18.0%           1.10

USA               +18.9%           1.00 
   10070. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 14, 2020 at 08:00 PM (#5983071)
Remember this?

Speaking to the Senate Health Committee on Wednesday, Redfield said, “CDC is in the process of a very large, sequential study across the entire United States, measuring serology.”

“The preliminary results on the first round show that a majority of our nation – more than 90% of the population – remains susceptible,” he said.
“It varies in different geographic parts from states,” he said. “We’ll have that finalized and probably published in the next week or so.”


That was 3 weeks ago. With the White House now publicly embracing the herd immunity quacks, the "published in the next week or so" will likely turn out to be at least until after the election.
   10071. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 14, 2020 at 10:01 PM (#5983078)

I think that Sweden stopped publishing their serology studies after the second one, which was for late May. Maybe there's been one since then, but I stopped checking for them after a while.
   10072. BrianBrianson Posted: October 15, 2020 at 01:01 AM (#5983086)
Well, I for one find it impossible to think a published study coming out days, weeks, months, or years later than promised is evidence of anything other than that's how she goes. I've certainly been ready to publish in "like a week" actually meaning 2+ years.
   10073. Ron J Posted: October 15, 2020 at 11:39 AM (#5983129)
Latest positive rates in Europe:

Well there's an edit that went bad.


Ukraine: 17.2%
Poland: 12.3%
Spain: 10%
France: 7.5%
Italy: 6.3%
United Kingdom: 5.9%
Russia: 2.8%
Germany: 1.4%

(I don't believe the Russian numbers)
   10074. Lassus Posted: October 15, 2020 at 04:13 PM (#5983217)
ZERO!


IT'S OVER!
   10075. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 15, 2020 at 04:14 PM (#5983218)
jesus ####### christ:

Mary Harris: You’ve spoken about your personal relationship with the doctors [on the task force], for instance, [coronavirus response coordinator Deborah] Birx, [director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Anthony] Fauci, [director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Robert] Redfield. I feel like you had this watercooler access to people who are making major decisions about U.S. health policy.

Olivia Troye: I really got to know these people on a very personal level. I still today worry about them. I care a lot about them. I have seen them go through, quite frankly, hell. I have seen them at some of the darkest moments in this administration, where they’ve been publicly discredited or there’s been an article that has been purposely placed to try to discredit them in the nation’s views.

MH: Can you describe one of those moments? Is there one that stands out to you?

OT: There were so many instances. But I will say this: Dr. Redfield, he especially was bullied.

MH: Who was bullying him?

OT: It was senior political staff, whether it was at the chief of staff level, the communications teams. And I remember having a conversation with Dr. Redfield where he said to me, “In every pandemic, CDC does frequent briefings. … I’m struggling because I have my scientists in my agency behind me saying, ‘Why aren’t you out there informing the public?’ ” And my heart broke a little in that moment for him because he was saying, “Can you help me? Can you help me figure out how to navigate this? How do I get into a press briefing again?” And I was thinking to myself, Well, that’s the million-dollar question, because I’m probably going to call you in a couple hours and tell you that you’re not needed.

It’s hard because there was a specific push to make sure that if somebody was being a little bit too forthcoming and honest about the severity of the pandemic, they didn’t want that message out. The communications people that were running this response and the messaging on it were very careful to craft these messages. … The media reported, Is Dr. Fauci being muzzled? Where is Dr. Fauci? People were concerned. … And Dr. Fauci came out and said, “No, I’m not being muzzled.” I remember the White House being relieved that he had said that, because it would look very poorly upon them.

I thought to myself, Dr. Fauci doesn’t know that he’s being muzzled because I’m the one calling him and saying, “You’re not needed today.” I tried to do it in the most respectful way. I mean, this is Dr. Fauci, a national treasure, and I’m wasting his time—he’s already in the car. At times it was like, “Yes, you’re needed,” and then I had to call 10 minutes before and be like, “Sorry, you’re not needed today. We’re gonna focus on a different topic.”
MH: What would have happened if you or others tried to empower the vice president to do something different, said, “Hey, here are the facts. We think you need to go to the president and lay them out”?

OT: The problem with that is that the president knew the facts. They had been laid out for him every single day. And the vice president knew the facts. It’s just that there was a narrative that they were trying to support and get out—because when that op-ed comes out, we were definitely in the “we need to reopen up the country” [phase], and they were telling the governors to get on board. They were telling the Republican governors, “You need to set the example. You need to be out in front.”

   10076. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 15, 2020 at 07:44 PM (#5983257)
By Worldometer, most cases in a day since July. Probably unlikely still, but wouldn't be shocking to hit a new record high next Friday (Fridays are peak case reporting days).
   10077. Lassus Posted: October 15, 2020 at 11:20 PM (#5983294)
Yeesh, Poland. Not good, homeland.
   10078. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2020 at 09:13 AM (#5983309)
New study says more than 225,000 excess deaths from March-July, or about 75,000 more (50% more) than reported by the end of July. (As always, reports are slow so some of that gets backfilled).

My estimate is 221,000, with a few thousand, so almost identical. That's not surprising--the data is ultimately coming from the same place, and if we go back to July the lag adjustments are small. That just leaves the baseline adjustment, which really shouldn't be much more than 10,000 or so different over 5 months, no matter what method you use.

The reason current estimates of excess deaths always seem lower is most analyses are cautious about doing a full lag adjustment and extrapolating out through today, because those numbers haven't actually been reported yet. That's why you will see estimates like 250,000 to 280,000 right now. The real number is certainly well above 300,000, and most likely over 325,000. This will be very clear in 2 months, when they look back to October. In the US at least we'll have a very good idea about the total excess deaths. The only real question will be what is causing them.
   10079. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 16, 2020 at 08:23 PM (#5983425)
Well, I for one find it impossible to think a published study coming out days, weeks, months, or years later than promised is evidence of anything other than that's how she goes. I've certainly been ready to publish in "like a week" actually meaning 2+ years.

Yeah, about that...
The Trump White House has installed two political operatives at the nation’s top public health agency to try to control the information it releases about the coronavirus pandemic as the administration seeks to paint a positive outlook, sometimes at odds with the scientific evidence.

The two appointees assigned to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Atlanta headquarters in June have no public health background. They have instead been tasked with keeping an eye on Dr. Robert Redfield, the agency director, as well as scientists, according to a half-dozen CDC and administration officials who spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal government affairs.
   10080. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 16, 2020 at 10:42 PM (#5983441)
Is anyone here still trying to defend the White House respond to Covid in even the slightest "We don't KNOW it would have made a difference if they didn't cover it up" kind of way? Is anyone still pretending that the "Florida strategy" (i.e. the White House strategy) was anything but a disaster?
   10081. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 16, 2020 at 11:02 PM (#5983445)
Trump’s catastrophically inept response to the coronavirus has also been shaped by his disdain for places run by Democrats. Vanity Fair has reported that the administration decided against enacting a wide-scale national testing plan in part because it saw the pandemic largely as a blue-state problem. “The political folks believed that because it was going to be relegated to Democratic states, that they could blame those governors, and that would be an effective political strategy,” one source told the magazine. (Vanity Fair’s reporting suggests that the administration’s early refusal to help states get protective equipment was shaped by similar considerations.) As late as last month, Trump was saying much the same. “If you take the blue states out,” he said, talking about America’s COVID death count, “we’re at a level that I don’t think anybody in the world would be at. We’re really at a very low level.”

   10082. base ball chick Posted: October 17, 2020 at 11:02 AM (#5983500)
i don't know if anyone on this particular thread is in favor of the trump strategy - i know i have read a few folks on other threads who appear to agree with him

i had a discussion the other day with a - supposed - "man of god" (denomination not being said) who said that he is very indignant that all businesses/schools are not up and running as usual. i asked if he was in favor of mandatory mask wearing everywhere. he is not. i asked him how he planned to stop the spread of disease. he said that we can protect the old and vulnerable. i said that very few old folks live in a nursing home and how did he plan to protect those who are not. he waved that off.

so i asked him what in his opinion, is acceptable civilian casualties from this disease. i said so far we've lost, in the past 7 1/2 months, twice the number killed in WW1 and almost as many as killed in WW2. i asked where in his religion, did his god justify slaughter of the elderly and infirm in the name of money

he then said that the numbers are coming down and children and the young don't get very sick. he is unconcerned with those who do, or the spread. he only, apparently, cares about money.

then again, we keep hearning over and over how covid kills/maims mostly Black and Hispanic people and, i guess, good riddance.

politically correct genocide - not sure what you call the death of all the White elderly, but i guess it falls under - they were gonna die anyway so who cares, they don't contribute to the economy.

and genocide is also trump deciding that people in the blue states should just die of disease. but regardless of ethnicity, almost half the adult population has high blood and only half of those are well controlled. 70% are obese or overweight. 10% have diabetes (i just looked it up)

there isn't much of a "not at risk" population in this country. NOT to mention that we don't all get free health care like he does
   10083. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 18, 2020 at 02:04 AM (#5983682)
bbc -- republicanism is a death cult.

Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63
This by Voltaire is often paraphrased as "Anyone who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities." Reducing our exposure to and belief in absurdities reduces injustice.

This is why dictators and would-be autocrats push conspiracy theories and misinformation. They wish to weaken the mind and to spin the moral compass. The truth is always their greatest enemy.

It's not satisfactory to simply say that all those who do evil acts are evil. It has a beginning, nearly always with believing falsities and absurdities peddled by the power-hungry. The truth is the first casualty, and never the last.

When a leader lies constantly, the goal isn't to make you believe something; it's to make you believe anything.




also, fwiw, my standard retort is to ask people like that "how many jews died in the holocaust?" if they can answer the question without hemming and hawing, there's some hope; if they can't, then i like to try to keep them talking about the holocaust for a while.
   10084. Tony S Posted: October 18, 2020 at 08:40 AM (#5983685)
so i asked him what in his opinion, is acceptable civilian casualties from this disease. i said so far we've lost, in the past 7 1/2 months, twice the number killed in WW1 and almost as many as killed in WW2. i asked where in his religion, did his god justify slaughter of the elderly and infirm in the name of money


This pandemic hasn't been the evangelicals' best moment. Not that it hasn't been obvious for a long time that American evangelism is a political movement in which religion is simply the packaging.

I wonder what gold-medal Olympic mental gymnastics you would have gotten from him if you'd brought up Terri Schiavo. Not to mention All Lives Matter. (Does "all" mean something other than... "all"?)



politically correct genocide - not sure what you call the death of all the White elderly, but i guess it falls under - they were gonna die anyway so who cares, they don't contribute to the economy.


We are not people. We are "resources".
   10085. Tony S Posted: October 18, 2020 at 08:57 AM (#5983687)
i had a discussion the other day with a - supposed - "man of god" (denomination not being said) who said that he is very indignant that all businesses/schools are not up and running as usual. i asked if he was in favor of mandatory mask wearing everywhere. he is not. i asked him how he planned to stop the spread of disease. he said that we can protect the old and vulnerable. i said that very few old folks live in a nursing home and how did he plan to protect those who are not. he waved that off.


You're in Houston... this guy didn't happen to share a surname with a certain Dodger lefty pitcher form the 60s and 70s, did he? :)
   10086. base ball chick Posted: October 19, 2020 at 10:22 AM (#5983883)
stiggles,

a lot of people who are not trumpers do not know how many jews and others died in the holocaust. of course, i guess theres prolly some that think that was when the germans built all those nice vacation camps that even had showers and free transportation there. kind of like how we americans treated the japanese to nice holiday camps during WW2.

that is an awesome quote from garry kasparov. i never heard of him before and looked him up. gets rid of the stereotyoe of chess players not being able to think outside of mathematics

tony s

oh honey, that guy wouldn't give me the time of day because his god said suffer the little children and take back the earth from the poor who grabbed it

and the person i talked to is not an evangelist. although he is misogynist, racist, classist and against taxation and any regulations on bidness for any reason whatsoever
   10087. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 19, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5983944)
Death-cult and #### science warning:

Donald Trump has once again attacked his top public health expert, using a call with campaign staff on Monday to call Anthony Fauci “a disaster” and to claim “people are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots” discuss ways to combat the coronavirus.

On Monday Trump acknowledged that reporters were listening in to the call. But he seemed unconcerned about his attacks on Fauci being made public.
“If there’s a reporter on, you can have it just the way I said it, I couldn’t care less,” he said.
The president also said Fauci was a “nice guy”, but said he had “been here for 500 years”.
   10088. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 19, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5983945)
a lot of people who are not trumpers do not know how many jews and others died in the holocaust. of course, i guess theres prolly some that think that was when the germans built all those nice vacation camps that even had showers and free transportation there. kind of like how we americans treated the japanese to nice holiday camps during WW2.

that's true enough, but there's a strain of aggressive denialism that comes out of people like this. that's what i like to cut into when it's there.

also, sometimes people just willingly out themselves as neonazis because they can't resist the opening to talk about the zionist yada yada.
and the person i talked to is not an evangelist. although he is misogynist, racist, classist and against taxation and any regulations on bidness for any reason whatsoever
sounds like a good reason to open a chemical processing plant next door to his church.
   10089. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 19, 2020 at 03:00 PM (#5983946)
just a reminder: fascism can take root in any community that accepts it
At Heschy’s urging, the crowd just surrounded and attacked journalist @jacobkornbluh. They pinned him against a wall and shouted “moyser” (“snitch”) as NYPD lost control of the situation. Really scary scene. Jacob is a pro

pic.twitter.com/783MqbzTBe

— Jake Offenhartz (@jangelooff) October 8, 2020
   10090. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 19, 2020 at 05:00 PM (#5983967)
10089 at least that dude (Heshy) was arrested afterwards.
   10091. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 19, 2020 at 05:57 PM (#5983969)
10089 at least that dude (Heshy) was arrested afterwards.

Rudy would have made him Deputy Mayor.
   10092. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 19, 2020 at 06:28 PM (#5983970)
Rudy would have made him Deputy Mayor.
he's already running for city council.
   10093. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 19, 2020 at 07:16 PM (#5983977)
NBC News @NBCNews
8,000,000 Americans slipped into poverty amid coronavirus pandemic, study finds.

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1317654156455411714



once again, the republican health care plan shows its versatility.
   10094. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 20, 2020 at 11:04 PM (#5984179)
Italy is finally getting hit again, and Lombardy is not being spared.

So much for herd immunity.
   10095. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 21, 2020 at 09:37 AM (#5984222)
I mentioned the other day that Sweden hadn't published the results of its antibody studies in a while. I actually took a look at their government website and that's not entirely true. In mid-September, they disclosed that the latest blood donor sampling (dating back to mid-June) showed 7.1% of people had antibodies at that point. That was compared to 5.0% two weeks earlier. They also did a random test of a specific neighborhood in Stockholm at the end of June and found that 18.7% had antibodies at that point.

Anyway, they have started to see cases rise again like many other countries in Europe, so it seems unlikely that they had achieved herd immunity like some people were claiming. Fatalities have not really increased yet so we'll see if there's just a lag or whether they're doing a better job of protecting the elderly this time around. Other countries in Europe (France, Spain, Italy, UK, Belgium) are seeing COVID deaths rise again, although not to same extent as we saw back in March/April.
   10096. Ron J Posted: October 21, 2020 at 11:57 AM (#5984259)
#10095 Back of the envelope, but I'd expect a ~1/3 reduction in fatality rates from the early days. At a 2 week lag.
   10097. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 21, 2020 at 12:09 PM (#5984264)
The total reported deaths by the CDC have started to make up for the holiday week, but it will take another week or two.

Adjusting for lag (the CDC still won't do this correctly, after 7 months...) and extrapolating out to the end of this week, you get a CDC estimate of about 345,000 excess deaths. (312,000 officially, which basically doesn't include the 3 most recent weeks, and is notably low going back a few weeks prior to that).

                  week ending     weeks          total
Date of           actual date     back           deaths
report            of death                       recorded

8/26              8/22            1              15,268
9/02              8/29            1              16,387
9/09              9/05            1              11,500 (approximate. post-Labor Day effect)
9/16              9/12            1              14,321 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/19            1              15,491
9/30              9/26            1              16,957 
10/07             10/03           1              17,485
10/14             10/10           1              14,788 (post-Columbus Day effect)
10/21             10/17           1              17,073 (probably some lingering post-Columbus Day effect)

9/02              8/22            2              38,041
9/09              8/29            2              34,320 (post-Labor Day)
9/16              9/12            2              33,560 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/12            2              36,423
9/30              9/19            2              38,746
10/07             9/26            2              39,849
10/14            10/03            2              37,639 (post-Columbus Day)
10/21            10/10            2              40,348 (probably some lingering post-Columbus Day effect)

9/09              8/22            3              48,804 (post-Labor Day effect)
9/16              8/29            3              46,945 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/05            3              47.160
9/30              9/12            3              48,073
10/07             9/19            3              48,899
10/14             9/26            3              49,078 (post-Columbus Day)
10/21            10/03            3              48,959 (probably some lingering post-Columbus Day effect)

9/16              8/22            4              53,771
9/23              8/29            4              52,810
9/30              9/05            4              52,108
10/07             9/12            4              52,022
10/14             9/19            4              52,230
10/21             9/26            4              53,087

9/23              8/22            5              56,502
9/30              8/29            5              55,288
10/07             9/05            5              54,246
10/14             9/12            5              53,766
10/21             9/19            5              54,195            

9/30              8/22            6              58,092
10/07             8/29            6              56,629
10/14             9/05            6              55,299
10/21             9/12            6              55,225

10/07             8/22            7              59,155
10/14             8/29            7              57,340
10/21             9/05            7              56,483

10/14             8/22            8              59,922
10/21             8/29            8              58,097

10/21             8/22            9              60,555
   10098. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 21, 2020 at 02:14 PM (#5984301)


#10095 Back of the envelope, but I'd expect a ~1/3 reduction in fatality rates from the early days. At a 2 week lag.


I think I agree, except (1) I'd expect to see a 1/3-1/2 reduction in any given age group. I also expect infections will be more heavily weighted towards the young in this next wave, so the overall fatality rate will be even lower. (You'll still have infections among the elderly (as we've seen in the Florida even when they prohibited visitors to nursing homes), but not to the same extent as we saw back in March. (2) I think the lag in actual deaths will be 1-2 weeks vs. cases, but the lag in reporting of deaths will actually be longer than that.
   10099. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 21, 2020 at 03:51 PM (#5984333)
nothing screams "healthy society" quite like neonazis firebombing ballot boxes
   10100. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 21, 2020 at 04:08 PM (#5984342)
Jacob Soboroff @jacobsoboroff
BREAKING: Lawyers say they can't find the parents of 545 migrant children separated by the Trump administration. With @JuliaEAinsley

https://t.co/riUuEshXnc?amp=1
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