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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 10679 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   10101. bunyon Posted: October 21, 2020 at 04:38 PM (#5984354)
twirling
   10102. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 21, 2020 at 04:52 PM (#5984362)
Florida delays today's COVID daily report to figure out ways to reduce the reported death total.

Officials said that of 95 deaths reported to the state on Tuesday, 16 had "more than a two-month separation between the time the individuals tested positive and passed away, and 11 of the deaths occurred more than a month ago.” And in five cases, there was a three-month gap between the time of infection and death.

These reporting delays raise red flags that have to be examined, according to Florida Surgeon General Scott Rivkees.

“During a pandemic, the public must be able to rely on accurate public health data to make informed decisions,” Rivkees said in a statement. "To ensure the accuracy of COVID-19 related deaths, the Department will be performing additional reviews of all deaths. Timely and accurate data remains a top priority of the Department of Health.”
   10103. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 21, 2020 at 07:43 PM (#5984397)
I think it’s fine to look more closely at situations where the person died >2 months after diagnosis. But the fact that deaths occurred more than a month prior to recording is completely standard in terms of how FL reports deaths. I believe based on prior articles that this is because someone is reviewing / reconciling the death certificates before they get reported, so there is always a bit of a backlog.
   10104. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 21, 2020 at 08:18 PM (#5984399)
Remember those great early-pandemic days last spring when bags of flour and yeast suddenly became precious items? Wasn’t that fun? Well, great news, everybody: we’re going to get to experience them all over again. As we’ve noted before, grocers are a little more prepared this time around and have been stocking “pandemic pallets” of food they can reorder quickly, but some things will still be hard to find. Mashed has thoughtfully prepared a list:

Spam. Hormel CEO Jim Snee reported that the company has 24% less inventory of all its products than it did at this time last year, and production may be slowed again if there are any more cases of COVID-19 among workers.


   10105. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 21, 2020 at 09:53 PM (#5984425)
All those suicides, for the prevention of which we hadda kill grandma?

Didn't happen. At least not in Massachusetts,
Whether we considered the months individually or combined, year by year, there was just no change. We ran the numbers again, this time assuming that each of the few dozen deaths in 2020 that occurred during March through May in which the cause of death was yet to be determined were in fact suicides. The scenario was unlikely, but one we had to consider. No matter how we looked, we kept finding the same thing. Suicide rates did not budge during the stay-at-home advisory period (March 23 until a phased reopening began in late May) in Massachusetts, which had one of the longest such periods of any state in the nation.
   10106. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 21, 2020 at 11:37 PM (#5984472)
$20 says joe biden literally coldcocks donald trump with a roll of quarters tomorrow night.
   10107. Ron J Posted: October 22, 2020 at 12:22 AM (#5984481)
#10105 Doesn't seem to have happened across the US as a whole.

Now to be clear it was a rough time for mental health. And it seems that the (self-reported) rate that people contemplated suicide was up. Depression/anxiety are up too as can be expected in any kind of pandemic. And I doubt we could tell in any kind of systemic way whether lockdowns make anxiety/depression worse.
   10108. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 22, 2020 at 11:36 AM (#5984550)
And it seems that the (self-reported) rate that people contemplated suicide was up. Depression/anxiety are up too as can be expected in any kind of pandemic.

Ron, that's noted in the article.
   10109. Ron J Posted: October 22, 2020 at 11:56 AM (#5984560)
#10108 I know, but not everybody reads linked articles and I thought this was something worth putting out there.
   10110. Greg Pope Posted: October 22, 2020 at 02:21 PM (#5984581)
Now to be clear it was a rough time for mental health. And it seems that the (self-reported) rate that people contemplated suicide was up. Depression/anxiety are up too as can be expected in any kind of pandemic. And I doubt we could tell in any kind of systemic way whether lockdowns make anxiety/depression worse.

At heart this is the trolley problem, right? Do we let nature take its course and kill 700,000 people, or do we lock down and have the virus kill only 300,000 people but 10,000 people will die due to the lockdown? Or whatever the numbers are.
   10111. Ron J Posted: October 22, 2020 at 02:46 PM (#5984587)
#10110 With whatever weighting you want to attach to various knock on issues. Assuming we could tell how much of any changes in depression/anxiety levels are coming from lockdowns and how are coming from the pandemic itself.

   10112. Snowboy Posted: October 22, 2020 at 02:55 PM (#5984590)
CANADA - Rapid testing at airports to replace mandatory quarantine for international travellers
The move will mandate that arriving passengers be required to submit to a rapid COVID-19 test to ensure they are free from the potentially deadly respiratory disease upon arrival, and replace the problematic and rarely enforced mandatory two-week quarantine for all incoming international travellers.


Details are emerging. They'll roll this out first only at Calgary International Airport and the Coutts land border crossing. Arriving peoples will be tested for covid, and will be requested to quarantine until their results are processed, expected to be within 24-48 hours. If negative, monitor symptoms and submit daily health reports, then go to a participating pharmacy after seven days and receive another test. If positive at any point, self-quarantine for 14 days.

EDIT: Above was announced today. All other land border crossings still prohibit "non-essential" travel entry until 21Nov.
   10113. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 22, 2020 at 04:11 PM (#5984602)
40,000 new cases in France today. That's an astounding number, the equivalent per capita of 200,000 US Americans in a single day.

Belgium has recorded an average of 10,000 a day for the past week, the equivalent per capital of 2 million US Americans in a week!
   10114. puck Posted: October 22, 2020 at 05:18 PM (#5984611)
Is there an idea of where the infections are happening? I saw an article Northern Italy where they weren't seeing much in schools, and thought spead in multigenerational households may be at issue. But it wasn't a very detailed article with info about age ranges, and such.
   10115. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 22, 2020 at 05:25 PM (#5984617)
Smoke from it and other fires in Colorado have drifted as far away as Minnesota, where it turned the season’s first snow a sickly orange, showing the climate crisis really has no boundaries.
   10116. baxter Posted: October 22, 2020 at 05:41 PM (#5984622)
https://www.yahoo.com/news/26-old-coronavirus-patient-pronounced-182500994.html

"A 26-year-old coronavirus patient who was pronounced brain dead in June just walked out of the hospital a survivor"

From Yahoo News, inspiring and frightening.
   10117. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 22, 2020 at 05:43 PM (#5984623)
Chicago, and Illinois more broadly, are tightening restrictions as numbers have risen quite a bit this week. 10:00 curfew for Chicago bars and restaurants as of today, and no indoor service for bars without a food license. Residents asked to limit private gatherings to six people.
   10118. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 22, 2020 at 05:53 PM (#5984627)
I understand, Ron. It is worth putting both out. Not aimed at you, but if we do want to be concerned about suicide-contemplation, then it should extend beyond COVID, otherwise it's a smokescreen.

In other COVID news,
Cases are now rising in all but nine states—meaning this surge is more widespread, and harder to explain, than either of the earlier waves.
It may end up being less deadly, however: The United States now runs many more tests than it could in March and April, and people who are hospitalized with the virus are less likely to die. At the same time, the virus’s long-term complications, which might range from respiratory disability to cognitive decline, now seem more ominous.


   10119. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 22, 2020 at 06:41 PM (#5984635)
By covid tracking project, second most cases ever were reported today. Percent positive is still somewhat low, but is higher than its been since late August when we were coming off the last peak, and has been rising for the last month.

Worldometer has less choppy data, I think due to a better (later) cutoff time. Still, by their numbers also we are on pace for one of the highest days ever.

And no, it's not just cases. Hospitalizations are up 10% over the last week as well, and up 50% from the low point in September. Deaths are likely no more than a week behind hospitalizations, though it will take another week or two after that to show up due to reporting delays.
   10120. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 22, 2020 at 06:46 PM (#5984638)
It’s amazing how Europe basically just gave up on containing COVID, but East Asia seems to still be doing a good job.
   10121. Zonk Saw Massive Dumps Posted: October 22, 2020 at 06:48 PM (#5984639)
At heart this is the trolley problem, right? Do we let nature take its course and kill 700,000 people, or do we lock down and have the virus kill only 300,000 people but 10,000 people will die due to the lockdown? Or whatever the numbers are.


I don’t think it’s so binary... and this was at least, the US problem, if not a problem lots of nations have dealt with to various degrees.

We never had an absolutist China option - and thank god for that.

But, rather than carefully planning, discussing metrics, accepting that mistakes would be made, initial perceptions and plans may need revision, really organizing a national response that recognizes our nation has certain liberties which aren’t so easily suspended (nor should be).... we half-asses it, and after about 4-6 weeks - if not less - collapsed the shitty failure of our terrible national response.....

Lock down by state? Stupid folly. I live within an hour of 3 other states, each of which is having its own struggles just to make statewide decisions (I feel bad for folks in Wisconsin right now, as their state Supreme Court seems determined to make things as bad as possible). Masks? Masks by region? Resource acquisition and allocation at a national level in order to speed help to hotspots consistently, rather than in response to news stories? Testing deployed to hot spots? Contact tracing nationally and consistently?

The US failed badly, and state/local officials weren’t a ton better - but it hardly mattered when so much of the country crosses jurisdictions.
   10122. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 22, 2020 at 07:27 PM (#5984641)
Rick Bonnell @rick_bonnell
The ⁦@AppState_FB⁩ student section tonight is the model for social-distancing.
pic.twitter.com/XIRBw32bRN
   10123. SoSH U at work Posted: October 22, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5984643)
The ⁦@AppState_FB⁩ student section tonight is the model for social-distancing.


Appy State students might be a little more responsible than most college students, given a student from there died of COVID.
   10124. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 22, 2020 at 07:55 PM (#5984646)
Appy State students might be a little more responsible than most college students, given a student from there died of COVID.

herman cain died from covid three months ago, but that hasn't stopped his own personal twitter account from continuing to post anti-mask propaganda.


which is to say, republicanism is a death cult.
   10125. BrianBrianson Posted: October 23, 2020 at 02:15 AM (#5984686)
It’s amazing how Europe basically just gave up on containing COVID, but East Asia seems to still be doing a good job.


We are, of course, doing a lot of stuff - bars are shut, cities have curfews, masks are mandatory in urban public spaces, soap is dispensed everywhere, barriers are erected in shops, buses, etc. Deaths in France are up to ~10x what they were in the Summer, but still ~10x less than what they were in March.

Perhaps Asian countries had a head-start in being prepared from SARS I, I don't know. But it's definitely not giving up; the screws will keep tightening until cases stop increasing. But real lockdowns, like we had in the spring, can't be maintained forever, so there is some attempt to "balance" things as to what's feasible.
   10126. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 23, 2020 at 07:44 AM (#5984690)
but still ~10x less than what they were in March.
I think deaths will have to rise rapidly over the next few weeks. The 7-day average for cases has tripled over the last 3 weeks in France. It's unlikely to ever get as bad as April on a daily basis, but it could get pretty bad, and it could potentially last for a lot longer than the 1-month peak in April.

Belgium just recorded 16,000 new cases today--1/700th of their entire population. It's still likely that it was worse in April, but not more than 2-3 times as many cases in a day as now, I wouldn't think.
   10127. BrianBrianson Posted: October 23, 2020 at 09:15 AM (#5984697)
So, when I looked at the data, the 40k cases seemed to have a bit of a "weekend" effect; there's an obvious 7 day modulation in the French data. So, 25k cases, which is ~250 deaths. We're actually at ~150 deaths, so some rise is likely (maybe we're at ~1/5th avril rather than 1/10th, but we were probably undercounting less now, so .... whatever, OoM). How much it rises presumably depends on how much more restrictions we get (I understand more cities are getting curfews?), and such.

It could keep rising, we could see more restrictions, hard to say. Policy is pretty openly trying to walk a tightrope of not overloading hospitals but not overshooting what's necessary because of the economical difficulties. So that's what I expect.
   10128. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 23, 2020 at 10:00 AM (#5984705)
While the CDC's estimate of excess deaths, extrapolated out through today, is probably around 345,000, mine is about 335,000 using the same basic (data but my own baseline and starting date, and calculated on a national basis only, rather adding up the states separately).

Data is still coming in slow for after Columbus day, so that could increase by a few thousand.
   10129. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 23, 2020 at 10:54 AM (#5984711)
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/hospitals-full-parts-idaho-refuse-mask-rules-73781574

Hospitals are full but some parts of Idaho refuse mask rules
Members of an Idaho health department board have voted to repeal a local mask mandate despite hearing a hospital was overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients


Moments after hearing an Idaho hospital was overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients and looking at sending people as far away as Seattle for care, members of a regional health department board voted Thursday to repeal a local mask mandate.

“Most of our medical surgical beds at Kootenai Health are full,” Panhandle Health District epidemiologist Jeff Lee told board members in the state's third most populated county.

The hospital in Coeur d'Alene reached 99% capacity a day earlier, even after doubling up patients in rooms and buying more hospital beds. Idaho is one of several states where a surge of COVID-19 infections is overwhelming hospitals, likely in part because cooler weather is sending people indoors, U.S. health officials said.

“We're facing staff shortages, and we have a lot of physician fatigue. This has been going on for seven months — we're tired,” Lee said.

He introduced several doctors who testified about the struggle COVID-19 patients face, the burden on hospitals and how masks reduce the spread of the virus.

But the board voted 4-3 to end the mask mandate. Board members overseeing the operations of Idaho’s public health districts are appointed by county commissioners and not required to have any medical experience.

Board member Walt Kirby said he was giving up on the idea of controlling the spread of coronavirus.

“I personally do not care whether anybody wears a mask or not. If they want to be dumb enough to walk around and expose themselves and others, that's fine with me,” Kirby said. “Nobody's wearing the damned mask anyway. ... I'm sitting back and watching them catch it and die. Hopefully I'll live through it.”

Another member, Allen Banks, denied COVID-19 exists.

“Something's making these people sick, and I'm pretty sure that it's not coronavirus, so the question that you should be asking is, 'What's making them sick?'” he told the medical professionals who testified.


Similar scenes — with doctors and nurses asking officials for help, only to be met with reluctance or even open skepticism — have played out across the conservative state. Idaho is sixth in the nation for new coronavirus cases per capita, with the average number of confirmed cases increasing by more than 55% every day over the past two weeks.

   10130. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 23, 2020 at 10:57 AM (#5984712)
What the ####### fuck .
   10131. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 23, 2020 at 11:18 AM (#5984715)
So, when I looked at the data, the 40k cases seemed to have a bit of a "weekend" effect; there's an obvious 7 day modulation in the French data. So, 25k cases, which is ~250 deaths. We're actually at ~150 deaths, so some rise is likely (maybe we're at ~1/5th avril rather than 1/10th, but we were probably undercounting less now, so .... whatever, OoM).

That’s assuming you’re not missing many cases. Given how quickly case numbers are rising I’m not sure if that’s a good assumption.
   10132. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 23, 2020 at 11:28 AM (#5984720)
Also I didn’t mean to imply that governments in Europe are giving up. But it does seem like a lot of people gave up on the mask wearing and social distancing. Otherwise I just don’t see how you’d be getting the numbers we are seeing now. The case numbers we’re seeing now are comparable to the second wave in the US over the summer, except more widespread (whereas in the US it was somewhat contained within the Southeast/TX/AZ).
   10133. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 23, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5984728)
The UK is in a similar position to France, now with a 7-day average of reported deaths over 150, and 7-day average of cases increasing by 2.5 times over the past 3 weeks. They are reporting slightly fewer cases, but maybe France is just doing more thorough testing.
   10134. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: October 23, 2020 at 03:58 PM (#5984773)
England (not UK; health is a devolved matter, though there's quite a bit of co-operation) claims it's doing more tests than any other European nation. Though that's not the same as testing more people than any other nation, of course. And a lot of the UK's grandiose claims about testing have been shown to be failures; turnaround time for their tracing system and number of people contacted in a timely manner has been getting worse since summer.

Also I didn’t mean to imply that governments in Europe are giving up. But it does seem like a lot of people gave up on the mask wearing and social distancing.


I get the impression mask wearing indoors has been fairly good across Europe. Holiday travel doesn't appear to have spiked infection rates too much - growth over July/August was manageable. I think back-to-school, and particularly universities, has played a big part here. It's worth remembering that in a lot of European countries, college campuses are closely embedded in towns and cities, and quite a few students live at home. Great transmission vectors. Remote learning for university students would have been devastating for university finances, but I expect it would have significantly slowed the growth since September.


   10135. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 23, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5984791)

Holiday travel doesn't appear to have spiked infection rates too much - growth over July/August was manageable. I think back-to-school, and particularly universities, has played a big part here. It's worth remembering that in a lot of European countries, college campuses are closely embedded in towns and cities, and quite a few students live at home. Great transmission vectors. Remote learning for university students would have been devastating for university finances, but I expect it would have significantly slowed the growth since September.

Look at the daily case chart for France and it looks to me like pretty standard exponential growth that started back in July/August, albeit with a relatively low exponent. Things didn't get out of hand until recently, but it looks like the seeds for the current outbreak were planted over the summer.

I remember saying back at the time that if you get the case numbers low enough (as most of Europe did back in May/June, you can largely open back up and do shorter, more targeted shutdowns before things get out of hand. Perhaps that I was wrong and that strategy doesn't work, but it seems more like Europe didn't actually employ that strategy and waited "too long" to shut things back down again. (Too long is in the eye of the beholder of course -- there are obvious costs to shutdowns and maybe they have decided that those costs weren't bearable a second time.)
   10136. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 23, 2020 at 07:03 PM (#5984808)
Easily highest number of cases in a day by covid tracking project (83,000). Might set a record by worldometer as well, but probably it will just be 2nd or 3rd most ever. We also set a record for new tests performed (almost 1.3 million, by covid tracking project), but 6.9% positive test rate on the day continues the steady climb.
   10137. Srul Itza Posted: October 23, 2020 at 08:57 PM (#5984832)
Over 81,000 on Worldometer, which does look like a new record
   10138. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 23, 2020 at 09:23 PM (#5984836)
We could very possibly break the 7-day average in a few days as well.
   10139. Srul Itza Posted: October 23, 2020 at 09:29 PM (#5984839)
But hey, I have it on the highest authority that we are rounding the corner on the coronavirus.

Honest.

   10140. Hank Gillette Posted: October 23, 2020 at 10:39 PM (#5984854)
Hospitals are full but some parts of Idaho refuse mask rules
Members of an Idaho health department board have voted to repeal a local mask mandate despite hearing a hospital was overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients


Should we count the people in Idaho who die as a result of this as suicides or homicides?
   10141. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 23, 2020 at 10:46 PM (#5984855)
Should we count the people in Idaho who die as a result of this as suicides or homicides?
We need a new category: Republicide.
   10142. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 25, 2020 at 08:39 AM (#5985217)
Belgium had another big case day. Reported hospitalizations are almost what they were at the March/April peak. They may be counting hospitalizations differently now than they were then--lots of places are. Regardless, peak reported deaths came about 2 weeks after peak reported hospitalizations, so we probably won't know how bad it will get in Belgium for at least another 2 weeks.

The scary part is 2 weeks ago in Belgium, 7-day average cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were all 1/3 or less than they are now. Assuming, very optimistically, we have topped out in Belgium on reported cases, starting now, the projected peak would be at least half to 2/3 what it was in March/April.

Belgium has supposedly started to take the virus seriously again starting in early October, shutting down certain businesses, etc., so there is some hope cases will top out soon. By all accounts though, they aren't likely to do the type of April lockdown, and since we are entering winter ("winter is coming") the time it takes to come down from this new peak, even with fairly good adherence to social measures, could be significantly longer than it was in April. I think all countries should be worried about that.
   10143. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 25, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5985247)
But hey, I have it on the highest authority that we are rounding the corner on the coronavirus.

Srul, you left out the second o in the bolded word.

Besides, Mike Pence and the OVP obviously has it under control.
   10144. base ball chick Posted: October 25, 2020 at 02:00 PM (#5985259)
Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 23, 2020 at 10:54 AM (#5984711)
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/hospitals-full-parts-idaho-refuse-mask-rules-73781574

Hospitals are full but some parts of Idaho refuse mask rules
Members of an Idaho health department board have voted to repeal a local mask mandate despite hearing a hospital was overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients



“We're facing staff shortages, and we have a lot of physician fatigue. This has been going on for seven months — we're tired,” Lee said.

He introduced several doctors who testified about the struggle COVID-19 patients face, the burden on hospitals and how masks reduce the spread of the virus.

But the board voted 4-3 to end the mask mandate. Board members overseeing the operations of Idaho’s public health districts are appointed by county commissioners and not required to have any medical experience.


do they appoint them based on who got the lowest IQ or what???!!!


Another member, Allen Banks, denied COVID-19 exists.

“Something's making these people sick, and I'm pretty sure that it's not coronavirus, so the question that you should be asking is, 'What's making them sick?'” he told the medical professionals who testified.


- he denies that the virus exists? has he any brain cells at all? even trump his god doesn't deny he had covid.

why, WHY do some people pretend that there is no virus? and obviously it DOES infect and kill White people because almost everybody in freaking idaho ARE White

- barry, how is your daddy doing? i'm almost afraid to ask
   10145. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 25, 2020 at 02:39 PM (#5985261)
do they appoint them based on who got the lowest IQ or what???!!!


It’s like it’s a Bizarro Lake Wobegan, where everyone is below average.
   10146. John Northey Posted: October 25, 2020 at 02:50 PM (#5985264)
My lord. That Idaho information is scary. Reminds me of why we closed the border with the US and won't open it anytime soon. I'm Canadian btw. I live in London Ontario - about 400k people here, 5-10 cases a day. You see masks everywhere as we have a mandatory mask wearing rule. It is rare I see people breaking it. Normally it is in places like Costco that you get the idiots taking them off once inside, but social pressure is high to keep them on. Low rate despite being a 2 hour drive from the USA (Detroit one way, Buffalo another) and a 2 hour drive from Toronto which is becoming a hot spot in Canada (probably due to the airport which still brings in Americans and others).

FYI: people here that I know - from far right to far left - are disgusted by the mess down there. Many go to Florida for the winter or Arizona annually but won't this year as it is too nuts.
   10147. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 25, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5985265)
Mark Meadows: “We’re not going to control the pandemic, we are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigations.”

Jake Tapper: “Why aren’t we going to get control of the pandemic?”

Meadows: “Because it is a contagious virus” #CNNSOTU

pic.twitter.com/1ahyatu6co

— State of the Union (@CNNSotu) October 25, 2020
   10148. Random Transaction Generator Posted: October 25, 2020 at 04:21 PM (#5985275)
I live in London Ontario - about 400k people here, 5-10 cases a day

London native, too. I remember in early September it was a total of 8 active (not new) cases for the entire county (~500,000 people). Last week, it peaked at 89 active cases, and now it's down to 58 active cases.

I know we'll go up (second wave and all that) but I've been pretty happy with how limited it has been in this area.
   10149. JJ1986 Posted: October 25, 2020 at 05:41 PM (#5985281)
I went to Target today after not having been in a store for several weeks and mask wearing has severely deteriorated. About 25% of the patrons (mostly middle-aged women) are wearing masks pulled down below their noses.
   10150. Srul Itza At Home Posted: October 25, 2020 at 05:44 PM (#5985282)
FYI: people here that I know - from far right to far left - are disgusted by the mess down there. Many go to Florida for the winter or Arizona annually but won't this year as it is too nuts.


If they get a negative test, they can come here.

Aloha.
   10151. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: October 25, 2020 at 08:05 PM (#5985289)
Striggles, you left off “just like the flu” from Meadows’ bizarre surrender diatribe.
   10152. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 25, 2020 at 08:20 PM (#5985291)
I live in London Ontario - about 400k people here, 5-10 cases a day

London native, too. I remember in early September it was a total of 8 active (not new) cases for the entire county (~500,000 people). Last week, it peaked at 89 active cases, and now it's down to 58 active cases.

That's only because you Canadians/Canadien(ne)s haven't accepted the blindingly obvious fact that government can't do anything well.
   10153. Ron J Posted: October 25, 2020 at 08:59 PM (#5985308)
#10152 We also haven't accepted that conservative governments are helpless in the face of the virus. Ontario's governed by a conservative populist who (after a shaky start) has basically listened to the experts.

And since Doug Ford can't really avoid angry outbursts it's worth noting that his have been directed at anti-maskers, profiteers and people throwing big parties.

EDIT: And teachers.
   10154. Tony S Posted: October 26, 2020 at 08:36 AM (#5985422)
why, WHY do some people pretend that there is no virus?


And just as importantly, why do we give people like these decision-making power? At any level?

Has there ever been a society that glorified ignorance the way twenty-first-century America has? Not just featured mass ignorance, but actually held it as a virtue?

I'm considering emigration more strongly than ever. (Trying to get my BF on board.) Whatever happens with the election, those elements will still be here, continuing to poison our country.
   10155. pikepredator Posted: October 26, 2020 at 10:11 AM (#5985439)

Another member, Allen Banks, denied COVID-19 exists.

“Something's making these people sick, and I'm pretty sure that it's not coronavirus, so the question that you should be asking is, 'What's making them sick?'” he told the medical professionals who testified.


If only there was some method reliant on science, or perhaps a school of thought that educated professionals on issues related to public health, who could do what was necessary to investigate this mysterious scourge, this pox on our society.

Was it witches? Did somebody do something to anger the might gods of Mt. Olympus? Perhaps we should sacrifice some goats and see if we can appease them. That's likely the only possible solution.

There are two full moons this month, and it seems like things are getting worse. That's worthy of consideration.
   10156. Tony S Posted: October 26, 2020 at 10:19 AM (#5985441)
If only there was some method reliant on science, or perhaps a school of thought that educated professionals on issues related to public health, who could do what was necessary to investigate this mysterious scourge, this pox on our society.



And a county commissioner, a public elected official, decided that this Allen Banks individual was highly qualified to oversee these educated professionals, and appointed him to a post where he could do so.

And that county commissioner will probably get handily re-elected by the same people he's helping expose to the virus, some of whom will get it, and some of whom will die from it.

We are one hosed-up country.
   10157. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 26, 2020 at 10:22 AM (#5985442)
Has there ever been a society that glorified ignorance the way twenty-first-century America has? Not just featured mass ignorance, but actually held it as a virtue?
So much this.
   10158. Greg Pope Posted: October 26, 2020 at 11:19 AM (#5985452)
If they get a negative test, they can come here.

Aloha.


How's Hawaii doing with COVID these days? It seemed like you had a handle on it early, but then things were getting out of hand in the summer.
   10159. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 26, 2020 at 12:24 PM (#5985465)
Mexican government reported 193,000 excess deaths through September 26, with 139,000 said to be attributable to covid. (Only 89,000 so far have been reported as covid, but it looks like they determined an extra 50,000 by looking at death certificates for covid-like symptoms. That's almost certainly still going to result in a large undercount.) 193,000 would be close to a little less than 3x the official number through 9/26. 139,000 would be 2x.

Extrapolating out to today, and using the excess deaths, that's 230,000, or over .18% of the entire population. That's behind Peru and Ecuador, but not clearly behind any other country in the world. Mexico is a slightly younger country than Ecuador and Peru. Adjusting for the US age distribution, that amount to about 0.5-0.55% of the entire population (not just those infected).
   10160. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 26, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5985470)
Italy is now at a 7-day average of reported deaths at 1/5 of the March peak. There are now 3.5x cases (7-day average) than there were two weeks ago, so, like France, Belgium, and the UK, we might have another peak that rivals the first one in intensity.

Of course, it depends a bit on how much testing had ramped up in these countries over the past month, and who has been getting tested. Also, in Belgium at least the testing demand is so high they are now turning people away unless they have symptoms.

   10161. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 26, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5985476)
If only there was some method reliant on science, or perhaps a school of thought that educated professionals on issues related to public health, who could do what was necessary to investigate this mysterious scourge, this pox on our society.


Come now, if they couldn't cure the pox, they won't have any idea what to do with the coronavirus ... hang on, I'm getting a report that they actually did cure the pox. Well, damn.
   10162. Srul Itza Posted: October 26, 2020 at 01:22 PM (#5985477)
How's Hawaii doing with COVID these days?


Not great, but better than a lot of other places.

Things began to get out of hand after everyone thought we had "crushed" it. Large gatherings, Fourth of July outings, etc., etc., and cases ballooned, peaking at around 250-300 per day. Some restrictions were re-imposed, the re-start of tourism was put off, and a separate quarantine was imposed for inter-island travel from Oahu, which is where most of the cases were (although the Big Island is now a hot spot and there has also been an outbreak on one of the smallest islands, Lanai). Deaths have followed suit, with four days in double digits (10-14) There have also been major breakouts at some of senior facilities, including a very bad one at a veterans home in Hilo where over 25 died. Total mortality is 212.

We are back "down" to 100 cases per day, and the numbers are better on Kauai and Maui. But with tourists coming back, albeit in small numbers, there is a lot of concern as to what happens next.
   10163. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 26, 2020 at 01:52 PM (#5985492)
Cases and deaths are in a sharp upturn across Europe, really, and few countries seem to be spared right now.

Of particular interest are Poland and especially the Czech Republic, since they had very small amounts of the virus the first time around. Unless things turn quickly, the Czech Republic could rival Belgium's record of 7-day average reported deaths per million population (about 25 at the peak, versus about 7 in the USA at the peak). Belgium also apparently counted covid deaths much more inclusively than a lot of other countries, and it's possible/likely that places other places in Europe, in particular Spain (18 per million at the peak, but possibly up to 1.6x that many) actually had more covid deaths per day at its peak.

Czech Republic is at 11 per million now (reported), with cases having doubled over the last two weeks.
   10164. Jay Z Posted: October 26, 2020 at 02:22 PM (#5985503)
Has there ever been a society that glorified ignorance the way twenty-first-century America has? Not just featured mass ignorance, but actually held it as a virtue?


Civil War, WWI, WWII all featured plenty of stupidity. Was there a good reason those wars were fought?
   10165. base ball chick Posted: October 26, 2020 at 03:47 PM (#5985525)
Jay Z Posted: October 26, 2020 at 02:22 PM (#5985503)

Has there ever been a society that glorified ignorance the way twenty-first-century America has? Not just featured mass ignorance, but actually held it as a virtue?


- i mean, i don't get the "anti-science" thingy. they all use tvs, phones, intarnetz, modern physicians. how can you be anti-science? and i don't get the being proud of knowing nothing. i guess that is how the know nothing party came to be about 100 something years ago. sounds like sgt schultz



Civil War, WWI, WWII all featured plenty of stupidity. Was there a good reason those wars were fought?


sure. great reasons

CW - n-words are not people and we got a right to treat them worse than plow horses

WW1 - yew can't treat my friend's friend's friend, whatshisname count something, like that and besides, war is glorious so let us our finest teenage guys enjoy the gloriousness. too bad wimmen are too stupid and cowardly to glory in the glory

WW2 - i vant to rule ze vorld and keel mellyuns and meelyunz of people who be a disGrace to da human race and will use Those Icky Yaller guys to hit russia from one side while i do the other lucky pyotr style
   10166. RJ in TO Posted: October 26, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5985526)
But with tourists coming back, albeit in small numbers, there is a lot of concern as to what happens next.
What happens next is everything goes to ####. As we've seen more or less everywhere is that as we open things up, numbers immediately start climbing, as too many people throw caution to the wind and assume they can immediately go back to acting like they did before the lockdowns.

I wish you the best of luck in avoiding this.
   10167. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 26, 2020 at 04:33 PM (#5985536)

I thought you needed to have a negative test to travel to Hawaii now. I read about someone who got tested, flew to Hawaii, and was turned away because his/her test wasn’t from an accepted testing provider. So it does seem like they are being serious about it, although that is Only one anecdote.
   10168. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 26, 2020 at 04:52 PM (#5985541)
Trump has brought Death Panels.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/25/with-coronavirus-cases/

Utah’s hospitals prepare to ration care as a record number of coronavirus patients flood their ICUs


With new coronavirus cases shattering records on a daily basis, Utah’s hospitals are expected to begin rationing care in a week or two.

That’s the prediction of Greg Bell, president of the Utah Hospital Association, who said administrators of the state’s hospitals confronted Gov. Gary Herbert on Thursday with a grim list: Criteria they propose doctors should use if they are forced to decide which patients can stay in overcrowded intensive care units.

Under the criteria, which would require Herbert’s approval, patients who are getting worse despite receiving intensive care would be moved out first. In the event that two patients' conditions are equal, the young get priority over the old, since older patients are more likely to die.

‘We told him, ‘It looks like we’re going to have to request those be activated if this trend continues,’" Bell recounted, “'and we see no reason why it won’t.'"

----


When University of Utah Hospital opened an overflow ICU two weeks ago, hospital officials warned that it would be staffed by doctors and nurses working overtime — at a time when health care workers already routinely break down into tears describing hospital conditions during the pandemic. Dr. Russell Vinik, chief medical operations officer at the U., warned that simply opening new beds would not be sustainable in the long run.

Meanwhile, Bell said, the coronavirus has left Utah’s hospitals desperately understaffed.

“We’re down 20% to 30%. Hundreds and hundreds of nurses are not able to work as they were [before] because of their own disease or infection in the family, or they’re moms and dads with school issues,” Bell said. “Some are worn out, some are on leave because they’ve been doing this for seven months.”

Adding ICU beds without adding staff doesn’t address the needs of the sickest coronavirus cases, he said; even for non-COVID-19 patients, care is not “intensive” if doctors and nurses have too many patients — or if patients don’t have access to the specialists they need.

   10169. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 26, 2020 at 04:56 PM (#5985543)
If you set up beds in hallways, you're never at 100% capacity.

https://kfoxtv.com/news/coronavirus/county-judge-el-paso-hospitals-and-intensive-care-units-are-at-100-capacity

County Judge: El Paso hospitals and intensive care units are at 100% capacity



The El Paso County Judge says after weeks of record setting coronavirus numbers, El Paso’s hospitals have had all they can take.

But other county leaders are saying something different.

“Currently our hospitals are stretched to capacity,” El Paso County Judge Ricardo Samaniego said.

On Sunday, El Paso county hit record numbers of hospitalized coronavirus patients and patients on ventilators, following a 300% jump in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in just the past three weeks.

----

KFOX14 asked the El Paso County Office of Emergency Management whether the measures meant area hospitals were running out of bed space.

The county said no.

“It’s not a question of whether or not we’re out, we’re expanding that hospital capacity within the hospital walls, and those resources are coming in with additional staffing,” Deputy Chief Jorge Rodriguez said.

But less than three hours later, El Paso county’s chief executive announced that local hospitals were completely full.

“We are at a crisis stage,” Judge Samaniego said.

KFOX14 went back to the Office of Emergency Management to ask why they’d denied bed space was running out.

In a statement, the department said while hospitals have been under heavy strain and working above their normal capacity, beds were being opened and additional staff were coming in.

The response didn’t explain why the El Paso County Judge said hospitals were at 100% capacity.

   10170. Srul Itza Posted: October 26, 2020 at 06:24 PM (#5985567)
I thought you needed to have a negative test to travel to Hawaii now. I read about someone who got tested, flew to Hawaii, and was turned away because his/her test wasn’t from an accepted testing provider. So it does seem like they are being serious about it, although that is Only one anecdote.


They are trying to be careful. Here are the criteria, cribbed from an unofficial but well run site

A "state-approved COVID-19 test" means a test to determine the presence of active COVID-19 infection that has been approved for use under these rules by the Hawaii Department of Health (DOH).

Currently approved is the processing by laboratories that are licensed or certified by Clinical Laboratories Improvement Amendments (CLIA) of specimens for nucleic acid amplification (NAAT) testing approved or authorized by the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA), pursuant to an Emergency Use Authorization or other authorization for COVID-19 testing. At this time, the state of Hawaii will ONLY accept tests from Trusted Testing & Travel Partners.

To reiterate, this test result must be confirmed prior to arrival in Hawaii, and the visitor must present evidence of this test upon arrival.

If a visitor's test results are not available at the time of arrival, the visitor must quarantine until the test results are received.

Travelers who unable to provide a negative test result certification, for each member of their party, will be required to quarantine for 14-days. .

A second test may be required depending on circumstances on the Big Island, Maui and Kauai:


Big Island Mayor Harry Kim has said that trans-Pacific travel to the Big Island of Hawaii will require a two-test plan where travelers who participated in the state's pre-arrivals testing program will additionally need to take a free rapid post-arrival test at the airport after arrival. Currently, that test is performed upon arrival, but the county is considering offering it four days after arrival instead; potentially at one of three testing sites (in Hilo, Kona, and the Kohala Coast). If a traveler fails the test, the Mayor said they would be administered a separate PCR test and subsequently have to quarantine where they have reservations, either until the test comes back negative or they recover from COVID-19. Kim additionally said he's continuing to work on establishing rules that would allow interisland travelers to bypass the quarantine restrictions.


Maui is participating in a voluntary second post-arrival test, also administered within 72-hours after arrival, and it will be free of charge. Governor Ige has also now verbally agreed to permit Maui residents to travel between Maui, Molokai, or Lanai without having to quarantine or be subjected to the pre-travel testing program. Inter-island travelers to Maui will need to take an inter-island pre-test 72-hours before departure.


Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami has said Kauai will be participating in a free voluntary second post-arrival testing program for residents and a voluntary paid $150, but incentivized, program for visitors. The post-arrival test will be administered within 72-hours of arrival. Inter-island travelers to Kauai will need to take an inter-island pre-test 72-hours before departure.

Will this work to prevent a dumpster fire on any of the Islands? Stay Tuned.
   10171. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 26, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5985583)
By worldometer, today will be the highest number of reported cases ever for a weekend day (Sunday/Monday). We're also about to break the 7-day record high. We could see 90,000+ cases on Friday.
   10172. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 26, 2020 at 08:03 PM (#5985586)
- i mean, i don't get the "anti-science" thingy. they all use tvs, phones, intarnetz, modern physicians. how can you be anti-science? and i don't get the being proud of knowing nothing. i guess that is how the know nothing party came to be about 100 something years ago. sounds like sgt schultz


Officially the Native American Party, an anti-immigrant, anti-Catholic party whose members were instructed to say that they knew nothing about the organization, whose existence was at first not announced.

Native American? Yep, BITD it meant a white citizen by birth.
   10173. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: October 27, 2020 at 09:56 AM (#5985638)
Interesting thread on characteristics of the Covid second wave as observed in France: 'JohannesBorgen' thread

A few headlines:

- R at approximately 1.2 at present in France
- No major difference in age distribution of those going into ICU, except that those over 80 have increased as a proportion
- Rate of hospitalisation -> ICU appears about 25% lower than first wave, meaning potentially better and faster treatments now
- But the above effect is stronger in younger age brackets
- Hospitalisation -> death rate also appears a lot lower than in the first wave
- But this effect is weakening over time, which might point to hospitals starting to reach the point of overwhelm

The last one is the most frightening to me. We're not even at the end of October, and it's not just the number of beds available. At some point, medical personnel are going to reach exhaustion point.
   10174. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 27, 2020 at 01:40 PM (#5985691)
The last one is the most frightening to me. We're not even at the end of October, and it's not just the number of beds available. At some point, medical personnel are going to reach exhaustion point.

There have been more and more U.S.-based stories with quotes saying "it doesn't matter how many beds we have since we're running out of people to staff them."

We are entering a scary winter.
   10175. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 27, 2020 at 03:14 PM (#5985715)
- Hospitalisation -> death rate also appears a lot lower than in the first wave
- But this effect is weakening over time, which might point to hospitals starting to reach the point of overwhelm
A little lower maybe. A lot lower? No.

France was probably identifying 1/20 or maybe less of the cases in the first wave (7-day average peak 4200+ identified, 7-day average peak of deaths, probably under 900 once you remove the clumping), and now might be identifying as much as 1/2 of them (current 7-day average almost 40,000). It's apples to oranges.

Current reported deaths in France is now more than 1/4 of the April peak (adjusting slightly for clumping). 2 weeks ago, reported cases were about 17,300. 3 weeks ago it was under 13,000.

We also don't know if France is reporting deaths the same way as in April (could be more or less excess deaths, for example). Most likely they are more consistent than the US about this, but I wouldn't have any idea.

edit: oh, you might mean deaths as a fraction of hospitalizations? If so, then you need to still add a delay (at least 1.5 weeks maybe more, b/c delays between hospitalizations and death, and then death and report of death), and also should take into account that it is very likely that more people are being identified as covid patients earlier, meaning on average they are more likely to be hoispitalized while not having as sever symptoms. With greater testing, this should reduce that rate even if treatments haven't gotten any more effective. And of course they likely have gotten somewhat more effective on top of that.
   10176. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: October 27, 2020 at 05:27 PM (#5985747)
edit: oh, you might mean deaths as a fraction of hospitalizations? If so, then you need to still add a delay (at least 1.5 weeks maybe more, b/c delays between hospitalizations and death, and then death and report of death), and also should take into account that it is very likely that more people are being identified as covid patients earlier, meaning on average they are more likely to be hoispitalized while not having as sever symptoms. With greater testing, this should reduce that rate even if treatments haven't gotten any more effective. And of course they likely have gotten somewhat more effective on top of that.


Yes, that was the point being made in the thread that I attempted to summarise. There's also an interesting strand about the average stay in hospital for those admitted, which goes to the point you're making as well. Certainly the root causes for any improvement are a combination of different things. I think the author's main point is that there's very little evidence to suggest that Europe's 2nd wave will be significantly less deadly than the 1st, and that early indicators that it's less severe in some ways are likely to be purely the result of improved methods for treatment and better preparation, not some kind of weakening of the virus or reduction of average viral load.
   10177. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 27, 2020 at 06:40 PM (#5985763)
That makes sense. It's really hard to say right now as Europe everywhere still seems to be on the upward part of the trajectory, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if this peak were less intense at the top. People aren't coming into this with no idea what to expect/avoid now. On the other hand, since the governmental measures are likely to be less strict, I might expect the duration of the waves to be longer. To some extent we saw this the first time around in Sweden, where in large part voluntary measures were able to reduce the spread, but it took a fairly long time to go back to low levels, leading to a large number of cases/deaths. Especially if it lingers, it will also be late fall/winter, so it could be harder to slow the virus than it was in mid-late April. The overall effect could easily be worse than the first wave.

Or, it could happen some other way. Remains to be seen of course.
   10178. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 27, 2020 at 10:15 PM (#5985824)
https://fox2now.com/news/missouri/st-louis-area-hospitals-at-85-90-capacity-due-to-pandemic/

St. Louis area hospitals at 85-90% capacity due to pandemic


However, Dr. Garza said it is not only the lack of room that is stressful, but it is also the concern that there are not enough healthcare workers to staff those hospital beds because more frontline workers are catching the virus.

“In addition to being full, we’re also seeing an increasing number of our workforce is being exposed to COVID, not necessarily in the hospitals, but out in the community, so then they become quarantined for two weeks,” Dr. Garza said. “It’s not just only a question of increased volume of COVID patients, it’s also COVID out in the community is causing problems with the workforce, so
we’re decreasing our capability to take care of patients as well.”

---

Dr. Garza and Page are urging residents to take the pandemic serious as new COVID-19 hospitalizations are on the rise again, reaching pre-summer levels.

Dr. Page said he does not want to put more restrictions into place, but the community needs to do their part to stay socially distant, avoid large gatherings and wear a mask.

“I don’t think we’re ready for a stay at home orders right now. But I think it’s time for everyone to say and recognize what Dr. Garza said, too many people are getting COVID it’s moving too fast for our community.” Dr. Page said. “Hospitals are reaching a point of stress on hospital workers are becoming stressed.”


   10179. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 28, 2020 at 01:47 AM (#5986021)
Good news, guys: Covid is over.
   10180. BrianBrianson Posted: October 28, 2020 at 01:59 AM (#5986026)
The world on the street is that in France we'll be getting additional measures soon; I don't necessarily trust that the rumours of exactly what they'll be, but I've heard weekend curfews, placing universités and lycées online only are likely. If we really have an R0 around 1.2, then presumably a moderate tightening would be sufficient (or to some extent, stricter enforcement. People aren't maintaining their space well in shops.)
   10181. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 28, 2020 at 07:09 AM (#5986033)
Belgium new hospitalizations are now higher than they were at the peak in April. Total in ICU is still a little lower. 7-day average in deaths is more than 1/4 the April max, and cases and new hospitalizations have almost tripled in the last 2 weeks, and have gone up by a about a factor of 6 in 3 weeks. Belgium is at approximately .1% of population dead (reported deaths and excess deaths are similar for Belgium) and appears to be about to have a bad second wave. Belgium's age demographics are a little older than the US.

The news from Mexico is even bleaker. They've have had a very long peak in reported deaths, and now are at around 0.2% of population dead (by excess deaths). It looked for a couple months like they were finally coming put of it. Along with a lot of the rest of the northern hemisphere, things have worsened over the last few weeks, and now no obvious end is in sight again. Mexico is also much younger than the US, but probably is not exactly comparable in terms of availability of treatment.
   10182. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: October 28, 2020 at 09:17 AM (#5986049)
Good news, guys: Covid is over.

Celebrate today with your very own personal PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP DEFEATS COVID commemorative coin!


Note from Designer & Series Creator: Anthony Giannini, CEO, USAF-R

President Trump, as you know, is a fan of boxing, and the new coin design features more than a hint of superhero qualities in history's most fascinating president. President Trump, whether you are in his corner or not, is—a one-of-a-kind, bigger than life, singular energetic force. President Trump's energy fills not merely a room, not merely a stadium, but fills—more like occupies—a mythological space. ... Like it or not, President Donald J. Trump is strong to a mythic level; hence, my final coin seeks to convey the mythic core strengths of President Donald J. Trump.

Yours for only $100. Operators are standing by.
   10183. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: October 28, 2020 at 10:28 AM (#5986067)

myth·ic
/ˈmiTHik/
adjective

relating to or resembling myth.
"we explain spiritual forces in mythic language"
exaggerated or idealized.
"he was a national hero of mythic proportions"
   10184. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 28, 2020 at 11:56 AM (#5986106)
CDC data is showing an awful lot of lag at the moment, inextricably pulling back from catching up from Columbus day. There's really almost no possible way excess deaths are slowing down at the moment, so it's likely the result of a slowdown at the CDC itself. I would guess by at least about 4,000 deaths, and a couple more thousand since we hadn't caught up yet from Labor Day. Notably, the CDC's reporting of COVID deaths has also slowed down in the last few weeks. On October 9 they were 14,000 behind Worldometer, and 5,000 behind covid tracking project. They have fallen further behind by about 3000 in the last 2.5 weeks

Adjusting for this and the 3 weeks of no data at all, and the estimate based on their calculations is now at least 350,000 through the end of this week. My estimate is probably slightly less--I'll have a better idea after Friday, since my numbers are keyed to weekly results on Fridays.
                  week ending     weeks          total
Date of           actual date     back           deaths
report            of death                       recorded

8/26              8/22            1              15,268
9/02              8/29            1              16,387
9/09              9/05            1              11,500 (approximate. post-Labor Day effect)
9/16              9/12            1              14,321 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/19            1              15,491
9/30              9/26            1              16,957 
10/07             10/03           1              17,485
10/14             10/10           1              14,788 (post-Columbus Day effect)
10/21             10/17           1              17,073 (probably some lingering post-Columbus Day effect)
10/28             10/24           1              17,510

9/02              8/22            2              38,041
9/09              8/29            2              34,320 (post-Labor Day)
9/16              9/12            2              33,560 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/12            2              36,423
9/30              9/19            2              38,746
10/07             9/26            2              39,849
10/14            10/03            2              37,639 (post-Columbus Day)
10/21            10/10            2              40,348 (probably some lingering post-Columbus Day effect)
10/28            10/17            2              39,512 (almost certainly reflecting the extra lag this week)

9/09              8/22            3              48,804 (post-Labor Day effect)
9/16              8/29            3              46,945 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/05            3              47.160
9/30              9/12            3              48,073
10/07             9/19            3              48,899
10/14             9/26            3              49,078 (post-Columbus Day)
10/21            10/03            3              48,959 (probably some lingering post-Columbus Day effect)
10/28            10/10            3              50,172 (almost certainly reflecting the extra lag this week)

9/16              8/22            4              53,771
9/23              8/29            4              52,810
9/30              9/05            4              52,108
10/07             9/12            4              52,022
10/14             9/19            4              52,230
10/21             9/26            4              53,087
10/28            10/03            4              52,476 (almost certainly reflecting the extra lag this week)

9/23              8/22            5              56,502
9/30              8/29            5              55,288
10/07             9/05            5              54,246
10/14             9/12            5              53,766
10/21             9/19            5              54,195         
10/28             9/26            5              55,216   

9/30              8/22            6              58,092
10/07             8/29            6              56,629
10/14             9/05            6              55,299
10/21             9/12            6              55,225
10/28             9/19            6              55,339

10/07             8/22            7              59,155
10/14             8/29            7              57,340
10/21             9/05            7              56,483
10/28             9/12            7              56,130

10/14             8/22            8              59,922
10/21             8/29            8              58,097
10/28             9/05            8              57,230

10/21             8/22            9              60,555
10/28             8/29            9              58,710

10/28             8/22           10              60,908
   10185. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 28, 2020 at 02:07 PM (#5986182)
President Trump's energy fills not merely a room, not merely a stadium, but fills—more like occupies—a mythological space. ... Like it or not, President Donald J. Trump is strong to a mythic level;

Not at all a cult.
   10186. SoSH U at work Posted: October 28, 2020 at 02:13 PM (#5986185)

Celebrate today with your very own personal PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP DEFEATS COVID commemorative coin!


That's part of the Historic Moments in History Coin Collection, so you know you won't want to pass up that opportunity.
   10187. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 28, 2020 at 03:47 PM (#5986213)
Forbes today:
The White House science office lists "ending the Covid-19 pandemic" as one of the top accomplishments of the Trump administration's first term despite the fact that new coronavirus cases are rising precipitously throughout the country, resulting in many hospitals nationwide approaching maximum capacity.
   10188. base ball chick Posted: October 28, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5986214)
10185. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: October 28, 2020 at 02:07 PM (#5986182)

President Trump's energy fills not merely a room, not merely a stadium, but fills—more like occupies—a mythological space. ... Like it or not, President Donald J. Trump is strong to a mythic level


- has the Onion gone out of bidness?

i suppose acolytes say something just like that about whatever tyrant/demagog they worship

p.s. hows your daddy doing?
   10189. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: October 28, 2020 at 03:53 PM (#5986215)
Excess deaths per 1000 people, projected out through the end of this week (10/17/2020). A rough estimate, as always, due to all the reporting lag. Probably more than half the states now have at least 1 excess death per 1000 people.

Now ordered by percent excess above expected baseline, starting March 1, 2020. The USA as a whole is about +18.5% since March 1, or about 45,000 per month.

                 % excess          per
                 since 3/01        thousand

New York          +42.5%           2.20
New Jersey        +38.5%           2.10
D.C.              +36.5%           1.95

Connecticut       +28.5%           1.60
Louisiana         +28.0%           1.85
Mississippi       +27.0%           1.90
Arizona           +25.0%           1.40

North Dakota      +22.0%           1.40
Delaware          +22.0%           1.40
Michigan          +22.0%           1.35
Massachusetts     +22.0%           1.25
Texas             +22.0%           1.05
South Carolina    +21.5%           1.40
Maryland          +21.5%           1.20
Illinois          +21.0%           1.15
Georgia           +20.5%           1.10

Alabama           +19.0%           1.35
Rhode Island      +19.0%           1.25
Vermont           +19.0%           1.10
Florida           +18.5%           1.20
South Dakota      +18.0%           1.10
Arkansas          +17.5%           1.20
New Mexico        +16.5%           1.00

Missouri          +15.0%           1.05
Montana           +15.0%           1.00
Pennsylvania      +15.0%           1.00
Tennessee         +14.0%           1.00

USA               +18.6%           1.05 

   10190. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 28, 2020 at 03:57 PM (#5986217)

i suppose acolytes say something just like that about whatever tyrant/demagog they worship


Remember this?

"It must be very strange to be President Bush. A man of extraordinary vision and brilliance approaching to genius, he can't get anyone to notice. He is like a great painter or musician who is ahead of his time, and who unveils one masterpiece after another to a reception that, when not bored, is hostile."
   10191. Zonk Saw Massive Dumps Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:37 PM (#5986249)
Celebrate today with your very own personal PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP DEFEATS COVID commemorative coin!


That's part of the Historic Moments in History Coin Collection, so you know you won't want to pass up that opportunity.


True story - I bought one of the historic Kim Summit coins...

I am just waiting for it to be worth thousands.... which I assume will be any day now.
   10192. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:49 PM (#5986258)
Not at all a cult.
Did anyone call him The Lightbringer?
   10193. Mayor Blomberg Posted: October 28, 2020 at 04:54 PM (#5986261)
It's beautiful, Zonk.
   10194. Tony S Posted: October 28, 2020 at 06:43 PM (#5986303)
The White House science office lists "ending the Covid-19 pandemic" as one of the top accomplishments of the Trump administration's first term despite the fact that new coronavirus cases are rising precipitously throughout the country, resulting in many hospitals nationwide approaching maximum capacity.


Well, I think his cult should follow their leader, go out, shed their masks, socialize, attend large gatherings, linger in crowded bars, eat indoors in restaurants, all that. What could go wrong?

But actually, the White House science office (talk about an oxymoron) is correct. Trump got the virus and recovered. Ergo, the pandemic is over.
   10195. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 28, 2020 at 07:04 PM (#5986308)
“Boy, you know, when you have spaghetti and meat sauce that mask is not looking,” Trump told his supporters. “When you walk out it looks like you got into a fight with Dana White, where’s Dana? You fought one of Dana White I saw Dana White does anybody know who Dana White is? It looks like you got into a fight with one of his fighters.”

“You don’t have Christmas, you don’t have the Fourth of July, no,” the President added.

   10196. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 28, 2020 at 07:12 PM (#5986310)

"It must be very strange to be President Bush. A man of extraordinary vision and brilliance approaching to genius, he can't get anyone to notice. He is like a great painter or musician who is ahead of his time, and who unveils one masterpiece after another to a reception that, when not bored, is hostile."


I was listening to a Bush speech earlier today (it was part of a history podcast that I was listening to) and I have to say, it was pretty astounding how eloquent he sounded relative to the current WH occupant.

And yes, I do remember that - it was Hinderaker or whatever his name is at Powerlineblog, I think.
   10197. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: October 28, 2020 at 09:21 PM (#5986335)
I was watching an old episode of Beavis & Butthead earlier today and I have to say, it was pretty astounding how eloquent they sounded relative to the current WH occupant.
   10198. baxter Posted: October 28, 2020 at 10:17 PM (#5986345)
10190 & 10196 Hinderaker is the person's name (just looked it up). President Trump just appointed him to the federal bench.

Without discussing W. Bush's politics or the job he did as president, I watched him on a late night TV interview, maybe The Tonight Show or Kimmel or the other one, don't remember. But, I do remember how charming he sounded; projected a good sense of self-mocking humor, all in all much different from the persona shown while chief executive.

   10199. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: October 28, 2020 at 10:26 PM (#5986350)
Rather than use his own infection as a lesson, Trump is telling Americans that masks are futile because some people who wear them get infected anyway. He seems not to know or care that the point of the mask is to protect other people, such as his wife and son, who got infected with him and possibly by him. On Oct. 8, Trump was asked on Fox News why he had pulled off his mask “for a photo op” as he returned to the White House from the hospital. “You catch this thing. A lot of people caught it,” Trump replied. He cited Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, who “wore a mask all the time,” and North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, who “was known as ‘the Mask.’ ” The president implied that masks were useless (“It’s particles of dust. It’s tiny stuff”) and that the disease was nothing: “Remember this: When you catch it, you get better. And then you’re immune.” A week later, Guthrie reminded Trump that Tillis had, in fact, removed his mask at the Sept. 26 White House event. Trump ignored the correction. “People with masks are catching it all the time,” he asserted.

   10200. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 28, 2020 at 11:03 PM (#5986359)
Flip.
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