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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 10691 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   10501. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 17, 2020 at 11:09 PM (#5989481)
All 13 of the projection systems listed at 538 now have the US with at least 300,000 reported deaths by the end of the year.
   10502. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 17, 2020 at 11:49 PM (#5989482)
10500 - 4 years of it in the WH, Hugh. A lifetime of it in the private sector.
   10503. BrianBrianson Posted: November 18, 2020 at 04:42 AM (#5989487)
I don't think anyone left on this thread believes in herd immunity, Dave (but cf. Manfred's aggressive attendance thread). What I was replying to is the claim that Sweden never talked in those terms, that it was all Rand Paul's fantasy.


In March/April actual numbers were harder to have confidence in, so when herd immunity would come was less clear. Sweden's goal was keeping the number of infections low enough that their healthcare system didn't get overwhelmed; which is exactly the same strategy we're pursuing in France (even now, while I'm having to write myself permission forms to leave the house, Macron is quite clear - the point is to get hospitalisations low enough hospitals aren't overwhelmed,. Even in the quotes they're not talking about pursuing herd immunity, but acknowledging it's something that'll eventually come, and that anti-COVID measures will have to continue until it does. Again, that's exactly the same as France (now, maybe, we have high hope that vaccines will play a role in it, I'm not sure how high our hopes for that should've been in March/April)


But there's basically no way to explain how the first wave petered out in Sweden pretty much just like it did in those other countries unless you accept that Swedes were largely staying staying home and avoiding large gatherings. Antibody testing, and the fact that they are now seeing a full blown second wave, indicates that herd immunity can't be the explanation.


Yes, pretty much this is by far the strongest evidence. There are places that have not contained it (e.g., Peru, Ecuador) where the "wave" just doesn't crest, and they have been trying to contain it, not taking no measures. So, I'd say declining infections is very compelling evidence you're distancing/isolating effectively.

Actually, looking, Peru might be coming down, but depending on how bad their undercounting is, it's possible they have significant herd resistance now. They claim ~3% infected rate, but assuming a ~1% fatality rate would give ~10% having been infected, using counted deaths. Their excess deaths are apparently ~3x official COVID deaths, so herd resistance might be playing a significant role there.
   10504. Tony S Posted: November 18, 2020 at 08:48 AM (#5989494)

Gov. Hogan (MD) yesterday announced new anti-COVID measures, and said "This is not the flu. This is not fake news."

Nine months into the pandemic, it's still necessary to state such things. Even in one of the most well-educated states in the country.

I can only imagine how bad it must be in places like Mississippi and the Dakotas.

   10505. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 18, 2020 at 09:25 AM (#5989503)
Peru crested months ago. Ecuador even more so. Now, it's plausible that herd immunity played a very significant role in these countries. The Financial Times estimated over 80,000 excess deaths in Peru (which has good statistics generally) by September 23, which if true would put them at about 2500 deaths per million back then, a little less when their deaths started dropping off to lower rates. Peru's demographics are much younger than the US, so you have at least double that (at least 5000-6000 per million, or 0.5%-0.6% of the entire population) to get to US equivalent. If herd immunity was the main cause of the dropoff, the latest the dropoff could have begun to noticeably occur is probably roughly when 50% or so of the population is infected (i.e., 75% of the way to 70% necessary for herd immunity). With a slightly higher than 1% IFR for excess deaths in Peru (adjusted to US) that seems at least plausible.
   10506. Lassus Posted: November 18, 2020 at 09:36 AM (#5989506)
I can only imagine how bad it must be in places like Mississippi and the Dakotas.

North Dakota hit the "1 out of every 1000 dead from COVID" milestone yesterday.
   10507. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 18, 2020 at 10:59 AM (#5989531)
I skipped last week's report, since the lag had gotten so bad it was pointless. Seems like a tiny but of catch-up is happening this week. We'll see if it continues. Only going back to the week of 9/19, which was the nadir between 2nd and 3rd waves. The fact that deaths started picking up in the latter half of September reflects renewed activity that started in early August. (I told by brother mid-summer that if Trump were smarter he'd delay the strong encouragement to reopen the country one more month until early September, basically after Labor Day. Cases would have ticked up a tad by the time of the election, but reported deaths would still be at or near their low point.)

                  week ending     weeks          total
Date of           actual date     back           deaths
report            of death                       recorded

9/23              9/19            1              15,491
9/30              9/26            1              16,957 
10/07             10/03           1              17,485
10/14             10/10           1              14,788 (post-Columbus Day effect)
10/21             10/17           1              17,073 (probably some lingering post-Columbus Day effect)
10/28             10/24           1              17,510
11/04             10/31           1              15,243 (election lag)
11/18             11/14           1              16,593

9/30              9/19            2              38,746
10/07             9/26            2              39,849
10/14            10/03            2              37,639 (post-Columbus Day)
10/21            10/10            2              40,348 (probably some lingering post-Columbus Day effect)
10/28            10/17            2              39,512 (almost certainly reflecting the extra lag this week)
11/04            10/24            2              39,237 (election lag)
11/18            11/07            2              40,959

10/07             9/19            3              48,899
10/14             9/26            3              49,078 (post-Columbus Day)
10/21            10/03            3              48,959 (probably some lingering post-Columbus Day effect)
10/28            10/10            3              50,172 (almost certainly reflecting the extra lag this week)
11/04            10/17            3              48,738 (election lag)
11/18            10/31            3              51,117

10/14             9/19            4              52,230
10/21             9/26            4              53,087
10/28            10/03            4              52,476 (almost certainly reflecting the extra lag this week)
11/04            10/10            4              53,899 (election lag)
11/18            10/24            4              54,741

10/21             9/19            5              54,195         
10/28             9/26            5              55,216   
11/04            10/03            5              54,236 (election lag)  
11/18            10/17            5              55,204

10/28             9/19            6              55,339
11/04             9/26            6              56,415
11/18            10/10            6              57,382

11/04             9/19            7              55,992
11/18            10/03            7              56,305

11/18            9/26             8              57,534

11/18            9/19             9              56,719
   10508. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 18, 2020 at 11:38 AM (#5989545)
Has Sweden’s coronavirus strategy failed?
“So far Sweden’s strategy has proven to be a dramatic failure,” Lena Einhorn, a Swedish virologist and vocal opponent of its strategy, told the Financial Times last week. “Four days ago we had eight times higher cases per capita than Finland and three and a half times more than Norway. They were supposed to have it worse off than us in the autumn because we were going to have immunity.”


   10509. Esmailyn Gonzalez Sr. Posted: November 18, 2020 at 01:35 PM (#5989576)
So you're saying Lena Einhorn thinks they were wide right?
   10510. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 18, 2020 at 02:24 PM (#5989590)
Latest conspiracy theory is all the "hospitalizations" are for people that had to be hospitalized for unrelated issues (like, car accidents), and happened to be tested while lying in a hospital bed.

Um, no.

>>New AHCA Data on Currently Hospitalized COVID-Positive Persons (AS OF JULY 10, 2020)

The Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) provides the hospital data you see on this page, including the newly-added count for active COVID-19 hospitalizations. You can access the raw AHCA data here.

The COVID-19 “currently hospitalized” data only counts persons who are hospitalized with a “primary diagnosis of COVID-19.” This excludes persons with multiple diagnosis in which COVID-19 is a factor but not primary diagnosis, those who were hospitalized at the time they contracted COVID-19, or any case where a doctor doesn’t feel COVID-19 is the primary cause of illness.


I wouldn't be shocked if some states have become more open about calling hospitalized patients covid patients, at leat more so than they may have been a few months ago. I also wouldn't be surprised if certain states went in the opposite direction.
   10511. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 18, 2020 at 02:44 PM (#5989594)
I think I'd be shocked if they didn't, at least until the new administration takes over (notice the optimism).
   10512. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 18, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5989620)
Latest conspiracy theory is all the "hospitalizations" are for people that had to be hospitalized for unrelated issues (like, car accidents), and happened to be tested while lying in a hospital bed.
That's just an update on the same thing that went around a couple months ago, but applied to deaths.
   10513. reech Posted: November 18, 2020 at 04:15 PM (#5989628)
New York City just closed schools again.

My son is a teacher out here on Long Island- his district has been tremendously vigilant with regard to screening- but every day we expect the worst...
   10514. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 18, 2020 at 07:35 PM (#5989694)
Most US reported deaths in a day since early May.

21 days ago we had a 7-day average caseload of 75,000+. Now we are at 165,000+. If the same relationship holds, we will have a 7-day average reported deaths of close to 3000, and very likely some number of days above 3000.
   10515. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 18, 2020 at 09:04 PM (#5989742)
Per Worldometer, Texas had its highest one-day caseload, and that's with a fair number of counties not reporting. Wink-Loving ISD has gone virtual even though Loving County (pop. 134) claims to have logged its first case only today.
   10516. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 18, 2020 at 10:20 PM (#5989793)
As an example of how irregular the CDC's reporting of deaths can be:

For early November North Dakota was expected to have about 150 deaths per week, from all causes. Over the last 7 days, they have reported about 100 covid deaths. Based on these numbers, one might have expected the CDC to report close to 300 deaths for them (100 covid, plus some other excess, plus the expected)--the CDC reported only 150. Over the previous week, where North Dakota reported 120 covid deaths, the CDC also reported only 150 total deaths. The week before the CDC added 336 for North Dakota, when only 80 covid deaths were reported by the state. The week before that, the CDC added 285 when 65 covid deaths were reported by the state.

Pretty safe bet there will have to be a catch-up for North Dakota at some point. The CDC has lumpy reporting for all the states, so it doesn't do much good to take the numbers at face value on a weekly basis unless you try to adjust in various ways. Over the longer term the numbers should all come in.

edit: and to give a sense of normal variance, in something close to 90% of weeks, prior to covid, the actual deaths recorded were within 20 of expected (above or below), so a difference of over 100 is definitely a reporting artifact, not normal variance.
   10517. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: November 18, 2020 at 10:56 PM (#5989821)
I can’t stop thinking about it. These people really think this isn’t going to happen to them. And then they stop yelling at you when they get intubated. It’s like a ####### horror movie that never ends. There’s no credits that roll. You just go back and do it all over again.

— Jodi Doering (@JodiDoering) November 15, 2020
A South Dakota ER nurse @JodiDoering says her Covid-19 patients often “don’t want to believe that Covid is real.”

“Their last dying words are, ‘This can’t be happening. It’s not real.’ And when they should be... Facetiming their families, they’re filled with anger and hatred.”
pic.twitter.com/tgUgP6znAT

— New Day (@NewDay) November 16, 2020
“People look for anything, People want it to be influenza, they want it to be pneumonia. We’ve even had people say, ‘well maybe it might be lung cancer,’” Doering added.



sometimes things break in a way that the pieces cannot be put back together. white america is broken.
   10518. BrianBrianson Posted: November 19, 2020 at 02:41 AM (#5989869)
Well, that's why I was saying "herd resistance" rather than "herd immunity"; they clearly aren't at the latter, but if a large fraction of people have been infected (let's say 30%, which was my back of the envelope guess for Peru), then measures that previously weren't sufficient to slow the spread of the virus could become sufficient, because you're only spreading it to 2/3rds as many people as you were in March.

I haven't been watching and processing the numbers myself day to day, then official death total in Ecuador looks pretty flat e.g., but if they're getting better at reporting then they could be semi-past the peak; Peru does look like deaths started decreasing in August, depending on their reporting lag (which I don't know), they could definitely be on the downslide; given they're at .25%-.3% dead, I don't think herd immunity is plausible, but resistance plus social distancing measures could be enough now when it wasn't before, yeah.
   10519. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 19, 2020 at 06:53 AM (#5989871)
The financial times has interesting excess death data. Unfortunately it has not been updated recently. Ecuador was all Guayas early on. Peru shows dramatic decline for months. These places are well past their peaks--whether it's from herd resistance or something else, like seasonality.

For reported deaths, Ecuador is now at 1/3 of what they were at in mid-July, and have been coming down gradually for months. Definitely not flat. Peru even more so--less than 1/5 of the peak in June and coming down every week.
   10520. BrianBrianson Posted: November 19, 2020 at 07:50 AM (#5989875)
Huh - assuming both the WHO data and the Financial Times data is accurate, it certainly looks like Ecuador is doing a better job at catching COVID deaths than they were earlier on (which wouldn't be surprising). That's a little harder to parse, but Peru, with a long, sustained peak definitely looks like something changed. Could be seasonality, but we haven't seen much of that elsewhere.
   10521. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 19, 2020 at 08:51 AM (#5989881)

North Dakota would have broken Youyang Gu's crappy case estimate model, if it were still in effect: Very high positive test rate leading to a high multiplier, would likely yield over 100% infected by now, or very close to it. His model had 18.4% as of October 4, and his IFR model was estimating 3000 new infections a day in mid September. Since mid-September, 7-day average reported cases have risen by a factor of 5, while positive test percentage has increased significantly, meaning he would be estimating 20,000-30,000 cases a day right now, or 20-25% of ND in the last week alone.


Heh. Speak of the devil. The infections model just came back, as a "completely new model". Looks to still be on the high side relative to other models, but now is within the range of possibility. It currently estimates around 4.5x cases per positive test for North Dakota, which is still very much on the high side (v about 3x for covidestim.org). At least Gu recognized his errors and scrapped the old model.

While Gu did some early good work, he got caught up in the very low IFR, high prevalence, significant herd resistance theories, which caused him to make all kinds of bad predictions, including that the virus was basically petering out and there was very unlikely to be 300,000 reported deaths by the end of the year. (To be fair, he was cautious not to predict these outright, since there were a lot of uncertainties, but that was the gist of his posts.) Like a lot of data crunchers, he seemed to want to believe the data was more consistent than it actually was over time/locale, leading to a massive overestimate in the number of cases nationwide. I know the feeling--you can only make predictions/observations if the data itself is meaningful, so there's a strong tendency to end up believing the data is more consistent than it is. To see where it might not be consistent you often have to dig granularly into the numbers and compare results to data from other sources to see if there might be a creeping bias in your data set.
   10522. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 19, 2020 at 10:07 AM (#5989891)
covidestim.org and covid19-projections.com both estimate about 17+% infected now. But that's where the similarities end. The shape of the curves are totally different, with covidestim seemingly only having a very small drop in IFR over time (half the cases showing up by early June) and covid19-projections still showing a very large drop in IFR (only about 1/4 of the cases showing up by early June, using the 10-day offset from the site). My guess is the truth is still somewhere in between. While 17% seems reasonable, if maybe still a little high. I think we would probably have hit the halfway point late in June, early in July, with a medium dropoff in IFR.
   10523. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 19, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5989966)
Some corrections/updates on the above: covidestime has 15.8% infected so far (correction to my post), and covid19-projections has 14.4% (update to what they had up previously). The halfway point for covidestim was early July, not early June, but they still seem to have estimates for the early part of the pandemic in the US as probably too high. For example, Kings county (Brooklyn, where I am) is estimated at over 50%, and the Bronx is pushing herd immunity at 67%. Certain small counties are over 100%.

After the updates to covid19-projections, their multiplier for North Dakota is around 3.5x, which is more in line with the current general consensus. North Dakota is at around 30% infected. The USA as a whole is in the low 3x range, also in line with recent consensus.

There are, and should be, big error bars on all these numbers, but they at least now seem reasonable.

   10524. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 19, 2020 at 03:29 PM (#5989988)
IFR for each of the waves (excess deaths), based on covidestim and covid19-projections.

wave                   1st      2nd      3rd (so far, extrapolating out)

covidestim             0.72%    0.97%    0.60%
covid19-projections    1.17%    0.66%    0.65%


covidestim doesn't come out looking at all plausible here, at least for the first wave. Cut back a lot of early cases and it would make much more sense. covid19-projections is plausible but you'd have to believe treatment got a lot better in June/July and then stayed there.

This last wave is harder to tell if cases are too high, excess deaths are too low (lots of estimates there since we are extrapolating for the past few weeks with bad data and out a week or two as well), if mostly younger people have been infected so far in the third wave, or if IFR really has come down that far.

Interestingly, if you average the two systems, you get 0.95%, then 0.82%, then 0.63%.
   10525. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: November 19, 2020 at 03:39 PM (#5989993)
While Gu did some early good work, he got caught up in the very low IFR, high prevalence, significant herd resistance theories, which caused him to make all kinds of bad predictions, including that the virus was basically petering out and there was very unlikely to be 300,000 reported deaths by the end of the year. (To be fair, he was cautious not to predict these outright, since there were a lot of uncertainties, but that was the gist of his posts.) Like a lot of data crunchers, he seemed to want to believe the data was more consistent than it actually was over time/locale, leading to a massive overestimate in the number of cases nationwide. I know the feeling--you can only make predictions/observations if the data itself is meaningful, so there's a strong tendency to end up believing the data is more consistent than it is. To see where it might not be consistent you often have to dig granularly into the numbers and compare results to data from other sources to see if there might be a creeping bias in your data set.

i take some offense at this framing.

one of the primary responsibilities in data analysis is to ensure the veracity of the data that's being used. it is the foundation that everything else is built on and so failing this most basic step cannot just be waved away as some minor error. this early data was of limited quality and had minimal utility, and that should not have blindsided anyone who knew what they were doing.
   10526. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 19, 2020 at 06:02 PM (#5990033)
The denialists are still at it--questioning how there can be any problem at all in Europe when euromomo (excess mortality) is just now starting to show a blip. It would make you wonder, except that they said the same thing in late March and early April, when excess deaths for europe, even Italy, seemed to stay low for weeks after the virus was already causing substantial problems in europe. They even put out a note about this due to all the conspiracists. Sure enough, before long Z-scores were hitting record highs. Here are some examples.

Note on interpretation of data: The number of deaths shown for the three most recent weeks should be interpreted with caution, as adjustments for delayed registrations may be imprecise. Furthermore, results of pooled analyses may vary depending on countries included in the weekly analyses. Pooled analyses are adjusted for variation between the included countries and for differences in the local delay in reporting.


It seems not to matter how may times a lie is debunked. Repeat it over and over again and some people will believe it. A lot of people.
   10527. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 19, 2020 at 07:06 PM (#5990045)
The CDC said that "more than 90% remained susceptible" on September 23.

covidestim has 11% infected as of that date. covid19-projections has 10.3%.
   10528. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 19, 2020 at 07:48 PM (#5990054)
It's very possible that my excess death estimate for cases reported as of today, used above, was far too low. Using a higher end estimate (406,000 by November 28, which is what you would get based on current trajectory and past amount of excess death per reported death from the second wave), the IFRs come out to be:

wave                   1st      2nd      3rd (so far, extrapolating out)

covidestim             0.72%    0.97%    0.72%
covid19-projections    1.17%    0.66%    0.79%


My guess is that it will turn out to be something like the higher number above for each wave. This is excess mortality, so if there are other significant factors causing excess deaths, you'd have to subtract them out from the IFRs above.
   10529. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 19, 2020 at 08:59 PM (#5990062)
questioning how there can be any problem at all in Europe when euromomo (excess mortality) is just now starting to show a blip


You have to understand that the data is collected on machines made by Soros and Hugo Chavez with Chinese money.
   10530. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 19, 2020 at 09:22 PM (#5990066)
Cases (7-day average) have now been increasing at a constant rate the last 10 days or so, and hospitalizations for almost as long. With the second derivative having gone to zero, perhaps there is finally light at the end of the tunnel. Best guess is this third wave will start cresting in cases and hospitalizations (7-day average) fairly soon. We can hope. I wouldn't get my hopes up for a quick reversal in reported deaths though--we still have a ways to go up, and then the downslope is likely to be more gradual.
   10531. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2020 at 07:38 AM (#5990081)
#10303 OMG that guy is one of the Rational Ground writers, along with my "data analyst" "friend" J (whose full name I won't use here).

A certain someone suspiciously matching this description just got retweeted by Trump.
   10532. Tony S Posted: November 20, 2020 at 08:35 AM (#5990083)
This is why the US is the worst Western country at handling the pandemic. And we're handling it worse than quite a few third-world countries, too.

Have there been any other societies in history where mass ignorance is not just celebrated, but expected from public officials?

When the pandemic is finally behind us, I wouldn't be surprised to see a mass exodus of health-care workers from states like Missouri to places that actually appreciate them, further crippling those states. But that seems to be what they want.
   10533. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2020 at 09:50 AM (#5990088)
My estimate for the US excess deaths through the end of this week is now 365,000 to 380,000. CDC estimate (extrapolating out and making up for lag) is probably about 380,000-395,000. Unless something very unexpected happens, we will easily hit 450,000 by the end of the year.
   10534. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: November 20, 2020 at 10:27 AM (#5990096)
Have there been any other societies in history where mass ignorance is not just celebrated, but expected from public officials?

the chinese communist cultural revolution seems like an apt comp for modern republicanism.
   10535. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 20, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5990109)

Pro life. Heh.


Also, A Monmouth University poll released the 18th, found 81 percent of Trump voters not confident that the election had been conducted fairly. 77 percent said Biden “only won … due to voter fraud.”
   10536. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 20, 2020 at 02:43 PM (#5990154)

A certain someone suspiciously matching this description just got retweeted by Trump.

That's him.

A month ago he told me that Florida, which reported over 9,000 new COVID cases today, had likely already reached herd immunity.
   10537. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5990201)
Twitter thread on excess deaths, estimating between 340,000 and 370,000 (best guess 355,000). I checked the numbers against mine, and they match very closely up until the week of 11/7. I'm still adjusting up, on top of that, about 5000 or 6000 more for recent CDC delay. That's a minor point, and it's possible my adjustment is more wrong than right.

The much bigger difference is that this guy's estimates for the last week and this one are very low, and in this case it really must be a result of recent CDC lag. He's estimating under 20,000 excess deaths for the two weeks combined (11/14 and 11/21). That would be shockingly low, because the actual deaths recorded for the 14 days prior to December 1st (10 day delay for week ending the 21st) is almost certainly going to be lot higher than 20,000--probably close to 30,000 and maybe more. You'd have to think we were both getting much better at identifying covid cases such that basically none were slipping through the cracks, and that we are having a ,massive pull-forward effect. Both possible of course, but as of yet unwitnessed in the US, so it would be surprising if they showed up now.

Again, a far more likely reason is that the CDC data is just at a slow point.

edit: oh, and to stiggles' point above, yes he then speculates that the IFR may have come way down drastically in the last few weeks since cases are high in the last couple weeks but deaths are not. Again, no introspection about the data he is using. This is even more confounding because there actually isn't any CDC total mortality data yet for the current week at all, as far as I know, and the data for the prior week is very preliminary--usually about 40% complete only. Small differences in how much has been reported (i.e. whether it is actually 35% rather than the historic average of 40%) make big differences in the estimate of excess deaths for that week.
   10538. Tony S Posted: November 20, 2020 at 05:11 PM (#5990204)
A month ago he told me that Florida, which reported over 9,000 new COVID cases today, had likely already reached herd immunity.



Sounds like their junior senator missed out on being part of the herd.
   10539. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2020 at 07:09 PM (#5990261)
November 6-16 about 5600 more new cases per day (7-day average). Since: about 3500.
November 11-19, about 1950 more current hospitalizations per day (7-day average). A little less today: about 1700.

The weekly increase in cases really does seem to be slowing now (second derivative negative), and for the first time now maybe we can just say the same thing about hospitalizations.
   10540. Srul Itza Posted: November 20, 2020 at 07:10 PM (#5990263)
Sounds like their junior senator missed out on being part of the herd.


And Donald Trump Jr. joins the crowd.
   10541. Srul Itza Posted: November 20, 2020 at 08:35 PM (#5990314)
And Rudy Giuliani's son.
   10542. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: November 20, 2020 at 08:43 PM (#5990320)
And Donald Trump Jr. joins the crowd.
tested positive on monday; announced after 6PM on friday.
   10543. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2020 at 08:50 PM (#5990323)
A bunch of hospitalizations came in late, after the bell, sending the 7-day average increase back up to 1950. So hospitalizations haven't actually slowed down yet. Still chugging along. Hospitalizations are supposed to be a week or so behind cases though, so potentially they'll slow down in the next few days, if the case slowdown is a real thing.

Over 200,000 cases by worldometers today.

   10544. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 20, 2020 at 11:46 PM (#5990386)
reason.com thinks a study that estimates 1/6 of Texans have the virus proves that the IFR is 0.4%. I guess by just taking the population, dividing by 6, and counting the reported deaths.

We are 9 months into the virus by now, they must know this way undercounts IFR (measured over the whole time scale). You can't estimate cases without also estimating deaths, especially for *cough* Texas. Taking the 1/6 at face value (though other systems have it as 15% or so), that would mean about 15% were infected in time to have died by now. With excess deaths currently somewhere around 35,000, you get an IFR of about 0.8%. Texas is also one of the youngest states in the country, so roughly adjusted for the US average, you get a number right around 1.0% (maybe slightly higher earlier this year, and slightly lower now).

In other words, this is exactly backwards:

That rate suggests that COVID-19 (in Texas, at least) is much more deadly than the seasonal flu but not nearly as deadly as people initially feared. The projections that the CDC made in March, which predicted that as many as 1.7 million Americans could die from COVID-19 without intervention, assumed an IFR of 0.8 percent. Around the same time, researchers at Imperial College produced a highly influential worst-case scenario in which 2.2 million Americans died, based on an IFR of 0.9 percent. The CDC's most recent "best estimate" of the nationwide IFR in the United States, based on data from other countries, is 0.65 percent.


edit: also just as a reminder, the CDC estimated less than 10% infected as of Sept 23. Assuming they meant 9% or so by early September, that yields an IFR for reported deaths around 0.70% and an excess deaths IFR of 0.95% or so.
   10545. BrianBrianson Posted: November 21, 2020 at 02:01 AM (#5990411)
Unless something very unexpected happens, we will easily hit 450,000 by the end of the year.


It probably won't affect deaths this year, but word on the (empty) street here is that the government is preparing for mass vaccine roll-outs in late December. It's likely, to my mind, they just want to be ready for the earliest it's possible, and some time in January is more likely, but it is coming.

I had been hoping to go to Bruges for my birthday (end of January) ... I remain hopeful. But not optimistic.
   10546. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2020 at 08:09 AM (#5990418)
Supposedly up to 40 million doses (20 million vaccinations) in the US "by the end of the year". With a 3-week delay before the second shot, theoretically 20 million americans could be vaccinated by mid-January (6%). If the vaccine is effective and goes to the right people, that could start to make a dent in mortality, but not likely to affect spread until after winter is over, when we could have potentially another 25% or so of the public vaccinated.

When will a vaccine be available?

Millions of doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines should be available to certain groups by the end of December, according to Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar.

“We expect to have about 40 million doses of these two vaccines available for distribution pending FDA authorization — enough to vaccinate about 20 million of our most vulnerable Americans,” Azar said at a Nov. 18 press briefing. “And production of course would continue to ramp up after that.”

Globally, Pfizer has said it could have 50 million doses by year’s end.
   10547. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 21, 2020 at 12:29 PM (#5990459)
So here's something interesting. Pretty much the only European countries with significant (reported) spring waves were all in Western Europe. except for Sweden.

Not only that, the countries on the "border" of Western Europe, geographically at least (Germany and Austria mainly, but you can also maybe throw in Denmark geographically), all had smaller spring waves than countries further west. Not counting Russia here, as they seem to be a special case.

Now pretty much every Eastern European country has already eclipsed their Spring totals, in most cases by a lot. The Northern European countries have so far had very small second waves. The Western European countries will likely all surpass their Spring totals by the time this wave is over, except possibly Ireland, which is the furthest west and most isolated.

Probably we shouldn't be surprised that geography seems to play a very big role.
   10548. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 21, 2020 at 04:22 PM (#5990559)
In Lubbock today, bed availability of -7; 19 open and 26 waiting.
   10549. Tony S Posted: November 22, 2020 at 09:25 AM (#5990623)
Add Loeffler to the pile of infected senators.
   10550. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 22, 2020 at 12:23 PM (#5990658)
Happily
   10551. Tony S Posted: November 22, 2020 at 09:03 PM (#5990762)
Texas being Texas.

The Texas prison system continues to lead the country in COVID-19 infection rates and prisoner deaths, but there’s another crisis unfolding as families of prison employees who have died are unable to get critical first-responder benefits.

So far, 23 Texas correctional officers have died from COVID-19.


   10552. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 22, 2020 at 10:03 PM (#5990774)
I wonder how many of the COs are from Nigeria. Perhaps a little-known fact off the units, but Africa has been an important resource for staffing TX prisons.
   10553. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 23, 2020 at 08:18 AM (#5990796)
I’m not sure how much I would read into second and third derivatives at this stage. As cases increase, some places are constrained when it comes to testing capacity again. One example: my friend’s parents live In Oklahoma. His father tested positive for COVID and had a pretty serious case, although he didn’t require hospitalization and seems to be past the worst of it thankfully. His mother came down with a mild cough and they assume she has it as well. Despite living with someone who has it, she could not get tested because she only had one symptom, not 2+ symptoms. And I’m sure she is not being counted as a “case” in the state’s numbers.
   10554. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2020 at 09:14 AM (#5990803)
Makes sense for cases. What about hospitalization, though? In the US as a whole, they continue to grow at a virtually constant rate (surprisingly constant over the last 12 days or so.
   10555. bunyon Posted: November 23, 2020 at 09:33 AM (#5990804)
Hospitalizations have a hard to time going up past 100% occupancy. My friends in OK say OKC and Tulsa are maxed and they/we have spent the last 15-20 years gutting regional and local hospitals (rejecting medicaid expansion hurt them badly). The hospital where Dad spent most of his time (and I know the most people) has a small number of excellent staff but very limited resources. He was discharged much too early a year ago or so because of a flu outbreak, which overwhelmed them. What I hear from them now is doubleplus ungood.


Hospitals nearing or actually full in OK
   10556. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 23, 2020 at 09:49 AM (#5990807)
Another very positive vaccine story. Maybe not as effective as the first two, but easier and cheaper to distribute. This could be the big one in the third world.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/another-covid-19-vaccine-success-candidate-may-prevent-further-coronavirus-transmission

A third COVID-19 vaccine candidate has convincing evidence that it works, and it may be easier to distribute and cheaper than the two other vaccines already shown to protect people. Developed by the company AstraZeneca in partnership with the University of Oxford, the vaccine had an average efficacy of 70% in preventing the disease, the developers announce today in press releases. In one dosing scheme, its efficacy was 90%, according to results from the interim analysis of clinical trial data.

AstraZeneca says about 3 billion doses of the vaccine could be ready in 2021. Whereas the apparently powerful COVID-19 vaccines recently announced by Moderna and the Pfizer/BioNTech collaboration rely on a snippet of messenger RNA coding for the spike surface protein of SARS-CoV-2, the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine stimulates immunity by using a crippled chimpanzee adenovirus as a “vector” to deliver the gene for spike. (A Russian team has also presented evidence its vaccine works but noted too few COVID-19 cases at the time to persuade many outside scientists.)

The AstraZeneca-Oxford collaboration is following more than 23,000 people vaccinated in the United Kingdom and Brazil. It reported a total of 131 COVID-19 cases in two groups: 8,895 people given two full doses a month apart, and 2,741 people who received a half dose first followed by the full dose. The first scheme had only 62% efficacy, a clinical trial measurement that may not translate exactly to the real world. But in the second one, efficacy jumped to 90%. The collaboration did not report the breakdown of cases between people in the vaccine arm of the trial and the control group. Nor did it provide any data on COVID-19 protection among the elderly or various ethnicities.
   10557. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 23, 2020 at 09:56 AM (#5990809)
What a national nightmare.

I did a google news search for "hospital beds full" and here are the top headlines.

'No beds anywhere': Minnesota hospitals strained to limit by ...
Mayo Clinic Puts Hospital Beds In Parking Garage, Lobbies ...
Oregon Hospitals Are Nearly Full Already and COVID Is Getting Worse
Mesa County Public Health says no ICU beds available
Colorado Hospitals Fill Up As Coronavirus Deaths Grow And Cases Stay High
COVID-19 patients could overwhelm Pa. intensive care units and staff. How can hospitals avoid a crisis?
Mayo Clinic Says Its Hospital Beds/ICU Units Are Full In NW Wisconsin, 50% Of ICU Patients Have COVID

   10558. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2020 at 11:27 AM (#5990825)
The CDC keeps falling further behind in reported deaths, making excess death analysis quite difficult to perform correctly. This isn't a completely new phenomenon. The CDC started way behind and played catch-up for weeks until after July 4, when they had a huge week of reported all cause-deaths as well as covid deaths. As of July 20, they were the most caught up in both totals. That was followed by 3 weeks of somewhat laggy data, and then about another 8 weeks of catch-up until October 9, which caught them up almost to the high-water mark of July 20. That was pretty much right at the start of the third wave, especially if you factor in a 2-week or so delay. Since then the CDC data has fallen further and further behind.

A pattern in the above. The CDC generally lags behind as waves increase and catches up on the downslope. It started way behind in the first wave, and as the first wave subsided played catch-up for many weeks. While the second wave did start before July 20 in reported deaths--probably 2 weeks earlier--the special catch-up week right near the start of the second wave was mostly for deaths from before the second wave started. After that, it again lagged behind as the 2nd wave went up, and caught up on the downslope until October 9. Now it is again lagging, and quite significantly. It may continue to get worse until this wave crests, and if that is in the middle of the holiday season, all bets are off as to when we will really catch-up.

Long story short here is that be quite skeptical of excess death totals that show relatively few excess deaths this third wave, in particular if they are below reported deaths. While that is possible, it's highly unlikely based on what has happened so far this year.
   10559. Lassus Posted: November 23, 2020 at 12:44 PM (#5990845)
My boss brought up Bhattacharya and the Great Barrington Declaration today to me in an email. Wanted to know what I thought, more of the latter than the former, as he sent me a transcript article of an October 9 presentation, but not the actual Declaration. I talked about three experts vs. 500 so all theories are equal debating, and other problems.
   10560. Lassus Posted: November 23, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5990848)
Dumb. He didn't ask about the Declaration, but a separate article/presentation by Bhattacharya, and I pointed him to the Declaration.
   10561. Cleveland (need new name) fan Posted: November 23, 2020 at 01:09 PM (#5990850)
I did a google news search for "hospital beds full" and here are the top headlines.


I was talking to my brother who is an ICU nurse in Gary a couple of days ago. He said that his hospital just converted 12 rooms to negative pressure rooms in order to handle the COVID cases.
   10562. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: November 23, 2020 at 01:27 PM (#5990853)
Here is the sequence of events: A player on Clemson was grody with flu-like symptoms in the week leading up to the game. Tests, we are told, showed that this player was negative for the coronavirus, and so this oozing player was allowed to practice with his teammates, and indeed traveled with them from Clemson to Tallahassee without any quarantine restrictions. Then, Friday night, the player’s latest test result came back positive. Florida State administrators, noting that a symptomatic player who was now known to be infected with the coronavirus had had close contact with basically Clemson’s entire football program, made the decision to cancel the game.


   10563. bunyon Posted: November 23, 2020 at 01:37 PM (#5990858)
10562 is crazy. Someone who is sick should be separated. Even if it isn't COVID, it's catching and will lead to others with symptoms.

I mean, I know you guys know that.

Clemson should be nuked from space.
   10564. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 23, 2020 at 01:37 PM (#5990859)
Adding to the impending crisis
Pennsylvania’s top health official is warning the commonwealth could run out of intensive care beds by next week as a spike in COVID-19 cases is driving residents to hospitals.
“This week’s data, in terms of hospitalization increase, an increase in the use of ventilators, case increase and percent positivity are worrisome,” Secretary of Health Rachel Levine said in a statement Monday. “Latest models show we could run out of ICU beds within a week.”

   10565. SoSH U at work Posted: November 23, 2020 at 01:58 PM (#5990864)
Clemson should be nuked from space.


During the Notre Dame game, Trevor Lawrence was seen on the sideline, occasionally without a mask, despite the fact he was out for 14 days after having tested positive. Why the hell would they let someone who is out due to COVID travel 500 miles to stand on the sideline?
   10566. Lassus Posted: November 23, 2020 at 02:03 PM (#5990866)
It's called FREEDOM OF RELIGION, comrade.
   10567. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: November 23, 2020 at 02:06 PM (#5990867)
   10568. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 23, 2020 at 02:44 PM (#5990872)
I was talking to my brother who is an ICU nurse in Gary a couple of days ago. He said that his hospital just converted 12 rooms to negative pressure rooms in order to handle the COVID cases.

Two of the people I work with have children (grownups now, obviously) who are nurses here in Southern Indiana. One works at a hospital which is no longer taking emergency patients due to lack of room and another works at a hospital which used to have a floor dedicated to covid but it's overflowed to the point where they can't really keep patients separate any more. Oh, and health care providers who are positive but not symptomatic are expected to continue working.
   10569. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2020 at 02:59 PM (#5990876)
Question on twitter--how many weeks until total deaths are 98% recorded? For the Covid era, the answer is about 11--currently the week ending September 5. Some weeks have been over 12 though. Also, 98% still leaves 1000+ unrecorded deaths for a week, which is quite significant as a percentage of total excess deaths for that week (often 10-20%), and an even larger percentage of recorded COVID deaths for the week.
   10570. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: November 23, 2020 at 03:07 PM (#5990878)
This along with record-high levels of covid-19 cases and hospitalizations are the result of laissez-faire approach to the pandemic, but pale to what’s likely next. With so many traveling for Thanksgiving, we’re staring down a cross-country superspreader event that makes the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally look like small bump in the covid-19 case graph. It’s already led to the macabre line that a Zoom Thanksgiving is better than a Christmas funeral. We’re likely going to see a lot of the latter as hospitals are overwhelmed.

All this is deeply horrifying to watch and know it doesn’t have to be this way. Seriously, look at this image from a weekend rugby match in Australia with thousands of maskless people in the stands or this indoor Yo Yo Ma concert in Taiwan attended by 4,000 people. Robust government responses work. Those countries relied on a mix of mask mandates, lockdowns, and multiple rounds of economic stimulus to help people and now are enjoying activities with relatively low risk of transmission most Americans could only dream of. In the U.S., instead of images of thousands enjoying sporting events without masks, we’re more likely to see ones of rolling morgues like those in the top image from El Paso will be needed as the virus spins further out of control.

   10571. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 23, 2020 at 03:38 PM (#5990883)
My uncle passed away last week (non-COVID related). We did a short graveside funeral for him yesterday with ~10 people. It was sad that we couldn't do something bigger in his memory, but given state rules and the fact that we had several high risk folks there (including my parents) it was the only responsible way to do it. I also limited some activities I would have done in the week leading up to the funeral just to be absolutely sure that I wasn't gong to infect someone else at the funeral.
   10572. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 23, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5990885)
If you want to get to 98% of excess deaths recorded, you have to go back about 6 months.
   10573. base ball chick Posted: November 23, 2020 at 04:12 PM (#5990892)
ted cruz has learned from his master and never retracts or apologises for anything. obviously things magically got WORSE after the election because of all the people deciding to just go gert the virus and to the debbil with everyone else

he's a dumb shtttt but in mah state unfortunately repubs are gonna just keep winning senate seats because redneck pop + messikinz haters > non-redneck non-racist population

the great barrington declaration is stoopid simply because you CAN'T isolate the vast majority of the so called vulnerable

at the current death rate, it looks like no masking no distancing = about 4 million dead. at least. i guess they are not worried about all the dead people in the dakotas because hopefully it will kill lots of indians and the White people who survive can go exploit their lands. or something. sigh

i don't get shrugging off MILLIONS of american deaths - well, i guess you can half the deaths because there are so many Black and Hispanic people dead and they aren't Real People. I would remind that stanford creep that the rightys don't consider him a Real People neither, but - shrug - people like him never believe obvious truth

- and btw it is killing me that we can't have any kind of family thanksgiving this year. my parents are bigly upset, so are my brothers and so are the twins, but a meal is not worth dying over
   10574. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 23, 2020 at 05:06 PM (#5990903)
I'm sorry for your loss, Dave, and not at all surprised that you acted responsibility. My condolences and thanks.
   10575. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 23, 2020 at 05:11 PM (#5990905)
All this is deeply horrifying to watch and know it doesn’t have to be this way. Seriously, look at this image from a weekend rugby match in Australia with thousands of maskless people in the stands or this indoor Yo Yo Ma concert in Taiwan attended by 4,000 people. Robust government responses work.


Or you could watch the certification hearing in MI today and see that the one guy -- a lawyer who can't read the plain sense of the law -- didn't think it necessary to wear a mask as he sat with others for ~4 hours.


Lassus -- where's your boss at on $15/hour?
   10576. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 23, 2020 at 11:37 PM (#5990932)
A North Texas school superintendent is openly defying the state mask mandate in schools. No one is stopping him.


Nor does he bother to report cases. Complaint filed in July, and here it is November. All one needs to know about TX
   10577. Lassus Posted: November 24, 2020 at 11:16 AM (#5990957)
Lassus -- where's your boss at on $15/hour?

Oh, against, I'm sure. He's a Libertarian Conservative dude. We don't really talk politics much. He has liberal adult children who haven't turned him, there's no point in me speaking to him about it. And he's generally quiet, not much of a preacher. I mean, a normal dude. Who probably thinks the election loss was fraud. Hates NY State liberal economics.
   10578. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: November 24, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5990964)
Oh, against, I'm sure. He's a Libertarian Conservative dude. We don't really talk politics much. He has liberal adult children who haven't turned him, there's no point in me speaking to him about it. And he's generally quiet, not much of a preacher. I mean, a normal dude. Who probably thinks the election loss was fraud. Hates NY State liberal economics.
have you explained to him that he's free to move to alabama?
   10579. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: November 24, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5990971)
Jeff Goodman @GoodmanHoops
The good news is we’ve got fewer than 10 high-major college hoops teams currently shut down. As long as that number doesn’t skyrocket, college hoops will march on.

   10580. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 24, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5990978)
10577 - Kind of figured that, but, you know, there are experts who say it's a good idea, so ...
   10581. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: November 24, 2020 at 03:26 PM (#5990985)
A North Texas school superintendent is openly defying the state mask mandate in schools.

Way to bury the lede there, Mayor.
At Peaster Independent School District, 40 miles northwest of Fort Worth, Superintendent Lance Johnson has said masks are optional in his school district buildings and classrooms.
   10582. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: November 24, 2020 at 03:30 PM (#5990986)
over/under:

5K covid deaths per day before january 20
   10583. Lassus Posted: November 24, 2020 at 03:32 PM (#5990987)
Has there been any appreciable, trackable spike due to election day?
   10584. Lassus Posted: November 24, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5990988)
Oneida County NY doubled our new positive cases per day in a single day. Yesterday 104 positives, 214 today.
   10585. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: November 24, 2020 at 04:09 PM (#5990993)
Has there been any appreciable, trackable spike due to election day?
the case load in the US was growing exponentially even before election day, so it will be hard to attribute any spike specifically to election day.

but yeah, going from election day into thanksgiving into christmas seems likely to kill at least another hundred thousand americans.
   10586. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: November 24, 2020 at 04:37 PM (#5991005)
When I looked more closely, I only found two players in my research across all game days (Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday) who were been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on a day his own team played. Lachavious Simmons (OL) of the Bears, who was placed on the list on Sunday, Nov. 8. The second was Lamarcus Joyner (CB) of the Raiders, who was placed back on the list on Nov. 22 after being off the list for only two days.

Of the 173 individuals I found reported to have been placed on the COVID-19 list this season, only two of them needed their status changed on game day.

   10587. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 24, 2020 at 09:35 PM (#5991045)
The increase in new cases has slowed down dramatically, and the positive test rate is down. Hospitalizations have finally started to increase at a slower rate the last couple days. Put that together, and it looks like we may hit a peak in cases in the next week or so, hospitalizations a week after, and deaths sometime mid-late December.

After tomorrow, the data quality could get quite poor for the holiday, so it might take a week or more to figure out what happened.
   10588. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: November 24, 2020 at 10:12 PM (#5991051)
The increase in new cases has slowed down dramatically, and the positive test rate is down. Hospitalizations have finally started to increase at a slower rate the last couple days. Put that together, and it looks like we may hit a peak in cases in the next week or so, hospitalizations a week after, and deaths sometime mid-late December.

okay, firstly: i just want to say again that i appreciate the contributions you make to this thread, and i don't mean for this to sound as harsh as it probably will, but ...


that analysis is unsound. "increase at a slower rate" does not mean "decrease". while it might indicate that a decrease will occur soon, it might also turn out to be a statistical blip that will get swamped as new data comes in over the days and weeks ahead.
   10589. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 24, 2020 at 11:39 PM (#5991056)
It's already incorrect to call this a blip. Cases were in exponential growth, but that ended about 2.5 weeks ago. Then they had linear growth for 9 days or so, and since they have been way below linear growth. That's a trend. Hospitalizations had exponential growth for a few weeks, then linear growth for a week and a half, and now that appears to be slowing down. Also a trend, and with perfectly matched timing.

Do I know this will continue and not reverse? Of course not, but it's my best guess. Even if it does slow down and we reach a peak, I'm not witnessing a big effort by the country to reduce spread in most places, so I think it's unfortunately likely that coming down from the peak will be long and gradual, with a lot of people getting sick and dying unnecessarily during the process. This could be in part avoided if people start behaving more responsibly now, today.

And of course, even if we do hit a peak, if people go wild for the holidays we will just likely have another one a couple months later.
   10590. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 25, 2020 at 02:12 AM (#5991059)
Interesting to see that U of Houston is projected for the always exciting Tropical Smoothie Café Frisco Bowl on Dec 19, which is shaping up to be championship weekend, and so lousy TV numbers as well as attendance numbers.

UH games on the 5th, the 12th, and 2 games listed as postponed, not canceled ... to be made up after the bowl?
   10591. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: November 25, 2020 at 09:24 AM (#5991068)
Interesting to see that U of Houston is projected for the always exciting Tropical Smoothie Café Frisco Bowl on Dec 19

On the bright side, bowl game "crowds" in the self-proclaimed "Sports City, USA" have been into social distancing way before the cool kids were doing it too.
   10592. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 25, 2020 at 12:40 PM (#5991104)
The CDC is still falling further behind every week, but even with that they are finally showing an upward trend.

                  week ending     weeks          total
Date of           actual date     back           deaths
report            of death                       recorded

9/23              9/19            1              15,491
9/30              9/26            1              16,957 
10/07             10/03           1              17,485
10/14             10/10           1              14,788 (post-Columbus Day effect)
10/21             10/17           1              17,073 (probably some lingering post-Columbus Day effect)
10/28             10/24           1              17,510
11/04             10/31           1              15,243 (election lag)
11/18             11/14           1              16,593
11/25             11/21           1              17,780

9/30              9/19            2              38,746
10/07             9/26            2              39,849
10/14            10/03            2              37,639 (post-Columbus Day)
10/21            10/10            2              40,348 (probably some lingering post-Columbus Day effect)
10/28            10/17            2              39,512 (almost certainly reflecting the extra lag this week)
11/04            10/24            2              39,237 (election lag)
11/18            11/07            2              40,959
11/25            11/14            2              42,565

10/07             9/19            3              48,899
10/14             9/26            3              49,078 (post-Columbus Day)
10/21            10/03            3              48,959 (probably some lingering post-Columbus Day effect)
10/28            10/10            3              50,172 (almost certainly reflecting the extra lag this week)
11/04            10/17            3              48,738 (election lag)
11/18            10/31            3              51,117
11/25            11/07            3              53,377

10/14             9/19            4              52,230
10/21             9/26            4              53,087
10/28            10/03            4              52,476 (almost certainly reflecting the extra lag this week)
11/04            10/10            4              53,899 (election lag)
11/18            10/24            4              54,741
11/25            10/31            4              55,477

10/21             9/19            5              54,195         
10/28             9/26            5              55,216   
11/04            10/03            5              54,236 (election lag)  
11/18            10/17            5              55,204
11/25            10/24            5              56,673

10/28             9/19            6              55,339
11/04             9/26            6              56,415
11/18            10/10            6              57,382
11/25            10/17            6              56,211

11/04             9/19            7              55,992
11/18            10/03            7              56,305
11/25            10/10            7              57,994

11/18             9/26            8              57,534
11/25            10/03            8              56,660

11/18             9/19            9              56,719
11/25             9/26            9              57,791

11/25             9/19           10              56,957
   10593. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 25, 2020 at 01:08 PM (#5991110)
10591 -- SDSU Ohio U. Even if the schools gave the tickets away attendance is a big ask
   10594. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: November 25, 2020 at 07:52 PM (#5991197)
In 2017, 11-year-old Honestie Hodges made national headlines after a horrific confrontation with Grand Rapids, Mich., police, in which they handcuffed the little girl at gunpoint at her home. The incident led to a new policy dictating how the department would interact with minors.

A little less than three years later, Honestie has died from the coronavirus, her family says. She was just 14 years old.

According to the New York Times, Honestie died this past Sunday after falling ill on her birthday on Nov. 9. After the teenager came down with severe stomach pains, she was taken to the hospital, where she tested positive for the novel coronavirus. She was sent home for several hours but returned to the hospital’s intensive care unit later that night as her condition worsened.

Though the department acknowledged that the officers shouldn’t have treated Honestie that way, no cops were fired as a result of the incident because they weren’t found to have explicitly violated any department policies
   10595. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2020 at 01:48 AM (#5991238)
Excess deaths per thousand, using CDC numbers and estimated out to today. Rough estimates only. Due to the recent explosion of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in this third wave, in combination with laggy CDC data, there would be pretty big error bars on the last 3-4 weeks of data, which is most of the third wave. This especially affects states like North Dakota.

Now it's much easier to count the states that have fewer than 0.1% of total population dead (12 or so).

First Column is excess deaths as a percent of expected deaths, cumulative, beginning March 1, 2020.
Second Column is excess deaths per thousand population
Third Column is excess deaths per thousand population, weighted for population over 65. (Table is ordered by this column.)
                  percent          total        scaled
                  above            per          to USA
                  expected         thousand     average

D.C.              +35.0%           2.10         2.75

North Dakota      +31.5%           2.25         2.35
New York          +39.5%           2.30         2.25
New Jersey        +36.5%           2.20         2.20
Louisiana         +28.0%           2.05         2.10
Mississippi       +26.0%           2.05         2.05

South Dakota      +27.0%           1.85         1.80
Texas             +25.0%           1.35         1.70
Connecticut       +27.5%           1.80         1.65
Michigan          +24.5%           1.75         1.65

Alabama           +20.5%           1.65         1.55
Illinois          +25.5%           1.55         1.50
Georgia           +21.5%           1.30         1.50
Indiana           +21.0%           1.50         1.50
Arkansas          +20.0%           1.55         1.50

South Carolina    +22.0%           1.60         1.45
Maryland          +22.0%           1.35         1.40
Arizona           +25.0%           1.55         1.40

Massachusetts     +22.0%           1.35         1.35
Iowa              +20.5%           1.45         1.35
Tennessee         +17.0%           1.40         1.35
Montana           +21.5%           1.50         1.30

Delaware          +20.5%           1.45         1.25
New Mexico        +20.5%           1.40         1.25
Nevada            +19.0%           1.20         1.25
Rhode Island      +18.5%           1.35         1.25
Kansas            +18.5%           1.25         1.25
Nebraska          +18.0%           1.15         1.20
Missouri          +16.0%           1.25         1.20
Kentucky          +16.0%           1.25         1.20

Colorado          +20.5%           1.05         1.15
Florida           +19.0%           1.35         1.05
Pennsylvania      +16.0%           1.20         1.05
Oklahoma          +14.0%           1.05         1.05
Wyoming           +16.5%           1.05         1.00
Idaho             +16.5%           1.00         1.00
Wisconsin         +16.0%           1.10         1.00
Ohio              +13.5%           1.05         1.00

California        +17.5%           0.85         0.95
Minnesota         +14.5%           0.90         0.90
Utah              +14.0%           0.65         0.90
Vermont           +15.0%           1.00         0.80
North Carolina    +12.5%           0.85         0.80
West Virginia     +11.0%           1.00         0.80
Virginia          +14.5%           0.90         0.75
New Hampshire     +12.0%           0.80         0.75

Oregon            +10.5%           0.65         0.60
Puerto Rico       +10.5%           0.65         0.50
Washington         +8.0%           0.45         0.50
Alaska             +7.5%           0.35         0.50
Maine              +4.5%           0.35         0.30
Hawaii             +3.5%           0.20         0.20

USA               +20.0%           1.27         1.27

   10596. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 26, 2020 at 11:47 AM (#5991255)
In light of the court's sanctioning of crowded services and packed weddings like the Satmar celebration a couple weeks ago, we likely ain't seen nothing yet.
   10597. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 26, 2020 at 01:02 PM (#5991259)
In light of the court's sanctioning of crowded services and packed weddings like the Satmar celebration a couple weeks ago, we likely ain't seen nothing yet.
The Supreme Court did no such thing, it merely held that the 1st Amendment prohibits New York from treating religious exercises worse than comparable secular activities, unless it is pursuing a compelling interest and using the least restrictive means available. At issue were strict 10 & 25-person limitations on religious gatherings, no matter the size of the church, synagogue or mosque, and despite requirements for social distancing, as well as mandatory masks, while numerous secular gatherings were treated more leniently. BBTF has a long history of people misstating legal matters, for various reasons, but those interested in the issue should read the decision. Nothing in the opinion sanctions ‘crowded services and packed weddings’.
   10598. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: November 26, 2020 at 05:33 PM (#5991275)
I've seen this article cited multiple times on twitter. Good news! Apparently covid deaths are just a mass hallucination.

The briefest look at the CDC data shows this article is wrong in virtually every particular.

Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.

These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.

This comes as a shock to many people. How is it that the data lie so far from our perception?


Everyone involved in this article must know it's Grade A bullcrap.

“All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers. We found no evidence to the contrary,” Briand concluded.

   10599. Hank Gillette Posted: November 27, 2020 at 12:35 AM (#5991285)
I've seen this article cited multiple times on twitter. Good news! Apparently covid deaths are just a mass hallucination.


Apparently, someone took the article down.
   10600. Mayor Blomberg Posted: November 27, 2020 at 01:05 AM (#5991286)
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