Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 12176 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 119 of 122 pages ‹ First  < 117 118 119 120 121 >  Last ›
   11801. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 18, 2021 at 02:17 PM (#6000297)
#11793 Wishful thinking I think. There's no mixed messaging in Canada and there's been a pretty big recent uptick everywhere.

Basically a lot of people parsed, "safe to come out of (semi) lockdown" as "Covid over" (and therefore no need for basic measures like distancing and masking) -- despite pretty consistent messaging from all levels of government.


As I said, there's no single magic bullet, and maybe an individualistic society like ours was bound to get screwed no matter what. But I still think that having a competent president and health officials less susceptible to political pressures would've cut down on our death totals considerably.
   11802. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 18, 2021 at 03:25 PM (#6000309)
Has there been any measured writing yet on how Los Angeles got so badly ###### so fast?
My wife's a director for a local health care provider, so I get a lot of the details by osmosis. Orange County has been a covid disaster for nearly an entire year now, which isn't shocking since it's also a conservative stronghold and very anti-mask. They've been kicking covid patients up to LA County for months because they've been dangerously low on beds since last spring, and Los Angeles County had more beds and more facilities. (L.A. County doctors, BTW, very resentful of this.) When this new wave hit, both L.A. and Orange just got swamped, and since both systems were already taxed because OC was so bad early, there wasn't any give in the system.

I dunno the numbers. This is just what the VPs and directors in the company are saying to each other.
   11803. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 18, 2021 at 09:30 PM (#6000377)
Orange County has been a covid disaster for nearly an entire year now, which isn't shocking since it's also a conservative stronghold


Biden won Orange County by 9 points.
   11804. Ron J Posted: January 18, 2021 at 09:47 PM (#6000380)
#11801. Sure but it's back in April that it would have made a difference. Not so much now.
   11805. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 18, 2021 at 11:37 PM (#6000401)
#11801. Sure but it's back in April that it would have made a difference. Not so much now.

Not as much as it would've back then, when Trump was in full scale resistance to science, but it will still be a lot better than continuing on the path we've been traveling up through high noon on Wednesday.
   11806. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 19, 2021 at 01:11 PM (#6000550)
On Jan. 14, 1940, the FBI arrested 17 members of the Christian Front on charges of plotting to overthrow the U.S. government. Twelve U.S. congressmen were “marked for death,” said FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover, for operating “a secret organization which specialized in training men for the projected revolution.” Two of the 17 were U.S. military reservists; one was a national guardsman. Of those not charged, the Anti-Nazi League identified 27 New York City policemen who were members.

all of this has happened before, and all of it will happen again.
In February 1939, a Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden drew 20,000 people. It was sponsored by Fritz Julius Kuhn’s German American Bund. That gathering was recounted in the 2017 documentary film, A Night at the Garden, directed by Marshall Curry and produced by Laura Poitras. The vintage footage resembles newsreels of Hitler, complete with swastikas and a sea of arms raised in Sieg Heil. The only difference from Leni Riefenstahl is that the rear of the stage was bedecked with American flags.
   11807. phredbird Posted: January 19, 2021 at 02:19 PM (#6000577)

Biden won Orange County by 9 points.


that doesn't change the fact that the people who run orange county have kept beaches open, for one.
   11808. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 19, 2021 at 02:20 PM (#6000579)
Camp Siegfried: Hitler’s Long Island

By 1935, Hitler supplied Camp Siegfried with teachers and German philosophy textbooks and smuggled in uniforms. Yaphank youth were taken on trips to Germany, including a 1936 trip to the Olympics, where Hitler urged Siegfrieders to maintain the kampf, the struggle, in the states.

Camp Siegfried’s purpose was to raise future leaders of America; they had to be Aryans, adhering to another key Nazism belief: Aryans — Nordic-looking, non-Jewish Caucasians — were the so-called master race. But life was far from idyllic. Forced to sleep in tented platforms, campers cleared brush and trees, and built infrastructure. They were coerced into having sex with campers to preserve the Aryan race, and to attend anti-Semitic, white supremacist lectures by propagandists promising that they, the “Friends of New Germany in America,” would be as important as storm troopers, the private Nazi army known for violent attacks. ...


Fred Trump would've been right at home in Yaphank.
   11809. reech Posted: January 19, 2021 at 02:33 PM (#6000586)
A little more history on Nazi's on Long Island:
https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/nazi-saboteurs-and-george-dasch
   11810. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 19, 2021 at 02:46 PM (#6000595)

I really don't think that there's a lot of COVID transmission happening on beaches. If there are people packed into beach bars and clubs that could be a problem, but otherwise I think that's the least of your concerns.
   11811. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 19, 2021 at 03:19 PM (#6000603)
It sounded more like an example of the mindset in the area, rather than the source of the problem, but I admit I am unsure and know little about SoCal circumstances.
   11812. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: January 19, 2021 at 06:12 PM (#6000649)
https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/hundreds-of-children-being-admitted-to-arizona-hospitals-for-covid-19

Hundreds of children being admitted to Arizona hospitals for COVID-19


"Parents, please make good choices to keep your children and the community safe" are the words said by a spokesperson for Banner Health as she says hundreds of children with COVID-19 in Arizona are being admitted into hospitals each month.

In a Twitter thread Sunday, Jan. 17, Becky Armendariz, a public relations specialist for Banner Health, says hundreds of children with COVID-19 are being hospitalized each month and numbers are growing from December and January cases.

She didn't provide specifics on the severity of children's illnesses but calls on parents to make responsible decisions when it comes to the health of their little ones.

Armendariz said she wrote the tweet while looking out the window and watched a youth soccer tournament with "Kids and refs not masked. Parents with masks under chins, chatting/cheering away in close proximity to others."

She shared data by Jama Network showing how pediatric numbers relating to COVID-19 have trended in Arizona. Jama Network looked at trends where children are being diagnosed with COVID-19 in 22 states, including Arizona.

"At the beginning of the study, the average cumulative hospitalization rate per 100 000 children was 2.0, increasing to 17.2 by the end of the study," the study reads.

At the end of the study, Arizona ranked as one of two hot spots for children contracting COVID-19. "Hawaii and New Hampshire had the lowest rates at 4.3 and 3.4 per 100 000 respectively and South Dakota and Arizona had the highest rates at 33.7 and 32.8 per 100 000."

The study looked at numbers between the dates May 15, 2020, and November 15, 2020.

   11813. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: January 19, 2021 at 06:44 PM (#6000654)
Beaches should absolutely be open. It's very easy to socially distance. They're outdoors and the virus decomposes very quickly in the sunlight. The more outdoor social activities that you take away, the more indoor social activities people will partake in (unless you ban people from having friends over at their houses, which isn't going to happen). If anything LA's explosion has been made worse by closing too many public outdoor places. They even closed playgrounds in LA!
   11814. baxter Posted: January 19, 2021 at 10:18 PM (#6000711)
Why did it hit LA? Who knows?
Consider the comment of Dr. Michael Osterholm, one of President Elect Biden's COVID advisors when he interviewed on the Ralph Nader radio hour, published May 2, 2020 (from the transcript, which I had linked to in the earlier COVID thread):

[W]hen this virus decides to do what it's going to do, humans can only have some impact
on that. Remember in 1918, and this is just an example, we had spring waves that
adversely affected Chicago and New York in a big way, lots of illnesses and doubts.
Hardly impacted Boston, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington D.C., or even here in the
Midwest, Detroit and Minneapolis, very little activity; then it disappeared. Where did it
go? It didn't go away because of human activity. It went away because whatever it does,
it does, and then it came back with a vengeance in the fall of 1918, and we don't know
where it was, why it came back and did what it did, and then communities that had no
activity in the spring suddenly, were in very dire trouble in the fall.

--end of quote
   11815. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 19, 2021 at 10:32 PM (#6000721)
Beaches should absolutely be open. It's very easy to socially distance.

Yeah, but that's when theory all too often runs into practice, at least if you don't set crowd limits and monitor distancing.
   11816. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 20, 2021 at 10:19 PM (#6000904)
During the violent insurrection at the Capitol on January 6, the message I kept hearing in videos of Trump rioters was “this is our house” and “this belongs to the people.” Some of us, if we felt such ownership, might think, “If this is mine, I’d better take care of it.” But the insurrectionists used their perceived ownership of the Capitol as a justification for destroying it. They demolished “their” furniture, broke “their” windows, and ransacked “their” offices. They made revoltingly literal the metaphor of a dog peeing on an object to mark its territory: In Trump’s name, rioters urinated on “their” building and tracked feces through “their” halls.

The anticlimactic experience of a mid-pandemic, post-coup Inauguration Day in D.C. also drove home how much Trump has exerted his ownership-by-destruction over this city. We can’t celebrate indoors—and some of the people we’d like to celebrate with are dead—because Trump refused to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Our entire downtown is a boarded-up, militarized no-go zone because his supporters attempted to overthrow the U.S. government. Restaurants and hotels that thrive on inauguration tourism are hurting. Many D.C. residents left town for the week, and the rest are afraid to go outside, for fear that residual trigger-happy white supremacists are roaming the streets. Miriam’s Kitchen, a longstanding service provider for unhoused D.C. residents, suspended meals and closed its bathrooms on Inauguration Day—the first time it’s closed since its founding in 1983.

In other words, on the day Trump left office, the cruel legacy of his tenure was more visible than ever

   11817. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: January 21, 2021 at 12:57 AM (#6000918)
We can’t celebrate indoors—and some of the people we’d like to celebrate with are dead—because Trump refused to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.


I feel like I've seen a lot of versions of this sentence, especially over the last six months or so.
I know no one thinks the total deaths in the US would be zero, or anything like zero, if [good person] had been in charge all along.
But... how much better do people think it would be? And why?
   11818. Mayor Blomberg Posted: January 21, 2021 at 01:49 AM (#6000920)
11817 - Good question, and based on the problems with the models so far hard to answer. Part of the problem beyond the components of a model is that even with a different president/governor/mayor and different messaging, it's still the same people, and how much effect would leader B have on their behavior. If LA is the parks, what's driving Arizona's spike, what's worked in the Dakotas and how much could earlier action have slowed the burn rate?
I assume the numbers will change, but at this point, if LA County were a state, it'd still not have a top-15 death rate, and CA is #39 among states.

As for beach closures, Dave makes a good point about allied activities, Texas is the anti-California (it's in the Constitution, I think), but they shut their beaches after Memorial Day spikes in COVID and case numbers, hospitalizations, and deaths all declined. I was about to say that while the numbers are high they're not all-time highs, but that is 100-percent inaccurate; we're just not talking about it much here, although deaths and cases are at peaks (our only 3 days of 400+ deaths, not including the data-dump day over the summer, have come withing the past two weeks; 3 December was the last time the 7 day average was below the summer's peak day).
   11819. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: January 21, 2021 at 08:37 AM (#6000926)
But... how much better do people think it would be? And why?


Obviously impossible to know or even guess at with any degree of confidence. My best bet would be that the death toll could be closer to Canada's or Germany's levels, which are around 50% or just under, but would still be somewhat higher than those two due to the need for politicisation of almost every topic and questions of access to healthcare being organised differently. Population density in the US is nowhere near as high as in some of the harder-hit countries such as the UK or Belgium, but simultaneously there are population centres with a huge amount of travel and interchange.

And why? The two main expectations I would have would be that a) Mystery Good Leader would have made it easier/more affordable for people with Covid diagnoses or symptoms to not have to go into work, and that b) distancing/suppression methods would have been somewhat (not overwhelmingly) more likely to be followed when Mystery Good Leader was believed in saying that vaccines were on the way and that this state of affairs could reasonably be said to be temporary.

So my guess would be that the US might be passing the 250k or 300k mark around now. Which would obviously be considered a catastrophe by Mystery Good Leader's political opponents and still compared unfavourably to Denmark, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand, and so on. But . . . 100k or so more people might be alive to take part in those complaints.
   11820. Tony S Posted: January 21, 2021 at 08:51 AM (#6000928)
This should shed some light on that question.

Newly sworn in President Joe Biden and his advisers are inheriting no coronavirus vaccine distribution plan to speak of from the Trump administration, sources tell CNN, posing a significant challenge for the new White House.


"There is nothing for us to rework. We are going to have to build everything from scratch," one source said.


If Trump had stayed in office, some of us here would be dead by mid-year.





   11821. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 21, 2021 at 09:05 AM (#6000930)
# 11819 is a reasonable take. It is roughly where I would land as well.
   11822. McCoy Posted: January 21, 2021 at 09:23 AM (#6000933)
Beaches like everything else have chokepoints.

Bathrooms, food stalls, showers, bridges, entrances, and so forth and of course beaches can most certainly get crowded.

Then throw in the problems with people traveling to beaches. I think some sort of locals only with an organized by day crowd control access could work.
   11823. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 21, 2021 at 10:03 AM (#6000944)
I feel like I've seen a lot of versions of this sentence, especially over the last six months or so.
I know no one thinks the total deaths in the US would be zero, or anything like zero, if [good person] had been in charge all along.
But... how much better do people think it would be? And why?

covid never would have gotten out of china.

the US would have had people on the ground from day 0, rather than a closed CDC outpost (because republicans think any scientific funding qualifies as "waste, fraud and abuse"). we would have flooded the area with specialists from around the world, rather than dump all the responsibility on the chinese army (because trump wanted another ####### cold war). we would have coordinated with health organizations from around the world to track and limit the spread of the disease (if it got out), rather than alienate literally everyone, everywhere (because trump is ####### trump).

   11824. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 21, 2021 at 10:19 AM (#6000948)
it never would have gotten out of china.

the US would have had people on the ground from day 0, rather than a closed CDC outpost (because republicans think any scientific funding qualifies as "waste, fraud and abuse"). we would have flooded the area with specialists from around the world, rather than dump all the responsibility on the chinese army (because trump wanted another ####### cold war). we would have coordinated with health organizations from around the world to track and limit the spread of the disease (if it got out), rather than alienate literally everyone, everywhere (because trump is ####### trump).


This is a huge overbid.

I think 25-50% as bad is probably a decent guesstimate. This isn't a scientific study or anything, but the last numbers I saw indicated that ~2.5x as many Republican Congress members have contracted COVID as Democratic members.* So maybe that indicates that general willingness to take precautionary measures would reduce the spread of cases by 50-75%?

* This may understate the difference, as a few D members were likely infected by their R colleagues recently.
   11825. Tony S Posted: January 21, 2021 at 10:23 AM (#6000949)
it never would have gotten out of china.


That's not realistic.

The world is too interconnected these days. There's no way the virus would not have seeped out of a huge, important country with critical and abundant links to the rest of the planet. And there's no way it wouldn't have made it into the US, given *our* interconnectedness to the rest of the world.

Trump did make it far, far worse than it had to be. He dismantled our first line of defense (the pandemic team) over a year before it turns out we could have actually used it. He stuffed his administration with incompetent hacks and cronies, as you said. He made no effort to contain the damage -- he did what he could to amplify it. He left the succeeding administration with pretty much nothing to work with, after doing everything possible to sabotage the transition. We didn't just have bad leadership; we had the worst possible leadership. That's all true.

But even with no Trump, we would have still been affected, at more or less the same level as other Western countries. Broussard's take sounds about right to me.
   11826. puck Posted: January 21, 2021 at 10:56 AM (#6000958)
"A third pandemic lockdown appears to be having little impact on rates of COVID-19 in England, researchers warned on Thursday, with prevalence of the disease “very high” and “no evidence of decline” in the first 10 days of renewed restrictions."
(Reuters) 'No evidence of decline' in COVID-19 rates in England's third lockdown



Is this concerning? This seems concerning. Or is 10 days not enough time?
   11827. bunyon Posted: January 21, 2021 at 10:56 AM (#6000959)
I agree that the most likely result of having someone competent in the White House in 2019 is that we get around 50% of the deaths we've seen.

But I wouldn't dismiss 11823 completely. We kept SARS and MERS out. Different viruses but the cases are instructional.

If COVID gets to the US, I don't think anyone could prevent a lot of death. But the whole point of having offices around the world and quick action teams is that in exponential growth stopping it just a little earlier has an enormous effect.

If Trump hadn't gutted US pandemic response, I wouldn't blame him for the virus reaching the US. But that was the first, biggest mistake. Screwing up on masks, distancing, lack of financial support, botching vaccine rollout all killed people but the people on the ground can do a lot without the president and have done. With essentially no federal plan, we're vaccinating 920K per day now. It's not like everyone is sitting around waiting to hear from POTUS.

If Hillary had been president and advocated masks, there might well be less mask wearing than we've had so far. If she'd shut down the economy to the point that other countries did, she may well have been removed by impeachment (assuming a bad 2018 midterm for the Ds).

Lots of what-ifs. We're on the bad end of what could be expected from COVID, but it could still have been worse. Still could be, come to that. But the best bet is it would have been bad but not as bad with competence in office.
   11828. SoSH U at work Posted: January 21, 2021 at 10:59 AM (#6000960)
We did take people out of China, as was explained here by the sister of a childhood friend of mine.


If Hillary had been president and advocated masks, there might well be less mask wearing than we've had so far. If she'd shut down the economy to the point that other countries did, she may well have been removed by impeachment (assuming a bad 2018 midterm for the Ds).


The tragic thing is, Trump was probably best-positioned to deal with this crisis. If Hillary had won, there's no way the anti-mask contingent would have listened to her. But if Trump had simply delivered consistent messaging on masking and social distancing, while selling the idea this was a patriotic effort rather than an assault on our freedoms, he likely would have been able to win over some of his supporters. And we were going to follow the science regardless what he said.
   11829. bunyon Posted: January 21, 2021 at 11:01 AM (#6000961)
11826: Could be. Probably too early to tell but if the increased transmissibility of B.1.1.7 is accurate, what we've called lockdown might not be enough even with masks. The worst case projections for the next few weeks/months are pretty staggering.

Also saw yesterday that the "South Africa" variant (can't recall the technical name so apologies for using the geography) shows enough of a reduced response to the vaccines that, were it flu, they'd call for a new vaccine.

We're past the end of the beginning. But that's about it.
   11830. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 21, 2021 at 11:03 AM (#6000962)
This is a huge overbid.
That's not realistic.


i disagree. it makes no sense to start with the precondition that this would always have been a massively deadly pandemic. any reconsideration of what would have happened without a trump presidency needs to include this scenario, where covid gets stamped out in january, before it ever gets out of china, and all of us around the world never hear about it.
   11831. bunyon Posted: January 21, 2021 at 11:04 AM (#6000964)
11828: are you arguing with my 11827? If so, you misunderstood. I very much blame Trump for pulling health officials out of China. I call it his biggest pandemic mistake.
   11832. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: January 21, 2021 at 11:07 AM (#6000966)
Stopping corona in China is a hail mary of an ask, but cheeto removed any chance of it happening.

What if we had a better president? IMO, the best possible outcome would have been a sitting GOP president like Romney who took it seriously. If he said we should mask up, roll up our sleeves and get to work, that message would have resonated with some segment of the right, although many would still say its pizza-making pedophiles who want us to wear masks.

With a competent administration, I agree that half the deaths is a decent rough estimate. But let us not overlook the other benefits we would have experience. Many many other people who would no longer have long-term health issues. For every person who dies, you probably have a handful with ongoing issues.

Our economy actually would have done better in 2020 with better leadership. Better response would have forced less lockdowns, less job losses.

A better vaccination distribution plan would have increased our 2021 thawing out. Earlier vaccination rollout would have pumped the economy earlier in 2021. I'm hoping things are "back to normal" in Fall. With great leadership, maybe that happens in Summer.

We would have been better in literally every way if that incompetent bunch of selfish morons wasn't in charge.
   11833. SoSH U at work Posted: January 21, 2021 at 11:07 AM (#6000967)
11828: are you arguing with my 11827?


No. I wasn't.
   11834. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: January 21, 2021 at 11:08 AM (#6000969)
Is this concerning? This seems concerning. Or is 10 days not enough time?


It is concerning; the new B117 variant appears to be not more deadly, but significantly more infectious, meaning that suppression measures that previously succeeded in getting the R number below 1 no longer seem to be sufficient. That variant appears particularly saturated within the UK. It also seems likely that more and more workplaces are requiring workers to return, as people are reporting higher traffic and more congestion in business districts.

The UK is making good progress in vaccination, so the answer may be to lock down harder for a few more weeks to get R lower than 1, then rely on/hope for vaccination numbers to start having a real impact.
   11835. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 21, 2021 at 11:12 AM (#6000970)
Is this concerning? This seems concerning. Or is 10 days not enough time?

the case rate in the UK doubled over the ten days leading into christmas; instead of shutting everything down, the UK government made a decision to let christmas happen, and then try to shut down afterwards.

i hope everyone there at least enjoyed pandora's boxing day.
   11836. bunyon Posted: January 21, 2021 at 11:15 AM (#6000972)
The really tragic bit of B.1.1.7 is that it's a lot more infectious and, apparently, equally deadly. If it got more infectious and a lot less deadly, it'd be a fine tradeoff for us. Everyone gets a bad cold and we're through it. But way more people getting sick and the same percentage going to hospital and dying is a disaster.

It looks like the vaccines are very effective against B.1.1.7, so it's a footrace between vaccination and spread of the variant. On the one hand, it's a miracle* we have effective vaccines this fast. On the other, given the rollout, it looks like the variant is ahead.


* Not literally.
   11837. Ron J Posted: January 21, 2021 at 11:19 AM (#6000975)
#11828 As I've pointed out before Ontario is governed by a conservative populist with a worldview not that different from Trump's.

But (after a bad initial start) he's basically gone with the scientific consensus. I think Ontario is therefore useful as a baseline for what was possible (and it's certainly possible to improve on the record of managed care facilities. Ontario did a terrible job here.) in the US.

One good thing about Ford is that he's the undisputed leader of the right wing populists so that particular group never became an organized anti-mask contingent.
   11838. Ron J Posted: January 21, 2021 at 11:23 AM (#6000976)
11827 -- One key difference is that there was a simple and effective test for SARS. Temperature checks worked quite well. No such luck with Covid.
   11839. bunyon Posted: January 21, 2021 at 11:26 AM (#6000978)
Ron, true. I'm not at all suggesting we WOULD have stopped it in China. Just that we didn't even try. Even doing our best, eventually a pandemic was coming. And maybe this is the one we couldn't have stopped. The response in the US after it got here was tragic but follows from an organization that didn't even try to stop it early. It was an abject failure to recognize what a pandemic is and how devastating it could be.
   11840. Ron J Posted: January 21, 2021 at 11:37 AM (#6000984)
#11839 Sure. The big problem with the more active scenarios is that unless you go full New Zealand you are going to have major outbreaks. Canada for example never had any left/right mask divide and took the matter as seriously as you could ask for initially. And while the message hasn't changed from government, covid fatigue is a real issue and it's led to the recent issues -- including several provinces in second lock down as no less drastic measures were working very well any longer.
   11841. Srul Itza Posted: January 21, 2021 at 11:41 AM (#6000986)
it makes no sense to start with the precondition that this would always have been a massively deadly pandemic.

Yes, it does. Because of asymptomatic, no-fever spread, which makes this disease differ from SARS and MERS. By the time it was even clear there was a new disease, it almost certainly had spread beyond Wuhan and into and out of China. By the time enough patients had been sick enough to go to enough doctors for someone to realize there was a problem, it would have been well established, travellers would have carried it on, and once it's out, it's out. That's how diseases work -- the spread is always well ahead of the notice of the problem, and it takes time for any bureaucracy, anywhere, to appreciate the scope of a problem, decide on a course of action, and act. Any suggestion otherwise belongs in the world of science fiction.

The spread could certainly have been slowed, and far fewer people would have died. But to suggest that, given the specific characteristics of COVID-19, that this could have been kept in China, is nonsense.
   11842. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: January 21, 2021 at 11:42 AM (#6000988)
Biden won Orange County by 9 points.


Biden is a conservative in any reasonable (non-American political party) definition of the term, so the point stands.
   11843. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 21, 2021 at 12:04 PM (#6000994)
i disagree. it makes no sense to start with the precondition that this would always have been a massively deadly pandemic. any reconsideration of what would have happened without a trump presidency needs to include this scenario, where covid gets stamped out in january, before it ever gets out of china, and all of us around the world never hear about it.

There’s pretty good evidence that it was already out of China (in France and Italy) in December.
   11844. GregD Posted: January 21, 2021 at 12:24 PM (#6000999)
Biden is a conservative in any reasonable (non-American political party) definition of the term, so the point stands.


Let’s test it! How does Biden measure up to conservative leaders in the world?

UK—Boris Johnson. Nope
Australia—Scott Morrison. Nope
New Zealand—Judith Collins. Nope
Canada—definitely not if you consider Harper the model. O’Toole less clear but still a cut the budget, tighten social welfare guy

That’s just some big English speaking countries.

Elsewhere you’ve got things like LePens in France, the remnants of Berlusconi’s madness in Italy, francoists in Spain, etc.

You’re aiming at a good point: US politicians on the left aren’t on the left compared to other countries.
But in inverting that point you’re missing its twin: other countries’ conservatives have traditionally been more conservative than the US

The US has had a relatively narrow band of disagreement.
Lots of its politicians would be in the center parties of multi party systems
Biden would be a normal center left figure in most countries.
   11845. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 21, 2021 at 01:16 PM (#6001011)
Biden would be a normal center left figure in most countries


Biden is a normal center-left leader here in the US as well.

:)

   11846. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 21, 2021 at 01:37 PM (#6001021)
The spread could certainly have been slowed, and far fewer people would have died. But to suggest that, given the specific characteristics of COVID-19, that this could have been kept in China, is nonsense.
Right; it's part of the leftist America-is-the-only-country-with-agency worldview. If every other advanced country failed to stop the spread of COVID, the notion that the U.S. alone had the power to do it is nutty.
   11847. Ron J Posted: January 21, 2021 at 01:55 PM (#6001028)
#11846 Every country didn't fail. Australia is another example of what's possible -- not merely New Zealand.

But the fact is that it was always seriously odds against that any western democracy would succeed in keeping Covid out. Or deal with the outbreak successfully once it reached.
   11848. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 21, 2021 at 01:57 PM (#6001030)
There’s pretty good evidence that it was already out of China (in France and Italy) in December.

sure, maybe, but a few straggling cases outside of china does not mean that a pandemic was inevitable.
Right; it's part of the leftist America-is-the-only-country-with-agency worldview. If every other advanced country failed to stop the spread of COVID, the notion that the U.S. alone had the power to do it is nutty.
gtfoohwtbs.
   11849. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 21, 2021 at 02:12 PM (#6001032)
Latest CDC excess death numbers are out. Listed as 473,000 through 12/26, with still a lot of incomplete data in there. Actual CDC numbers are likely to end up over 490,000 through 12/26, so maybe 510,000 or so through 12/31. This is very close to my estimate as well.
   11850. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: January 21, 2021 at 02:22 PM (#6001036)
So half a million dead. WAG that half could have been prevented with good leadership. What're a quarter-million people here or there?
   11851. RJ in TO Posted: January 21, 2021 at 02:29 PM (#6001039)
In comparison, Canada is up to about 18,600 deaths, with about 1/8th the population of the US. Rescaling to the US population would give about 150,000 deaths. And it's not like our leadership has been perfect here either.
   11852. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: January 21, 2021 at 02:33 PM (#6001041)
As for a thought experiment on what might have been possible -- the first confirmed case in the US was in Washington State, and Washington has hardly been perfect when it comes to dealing with the virus, but if the entire country were doing as well, we'd have about half the number of deaths we ended up with.
   11853. Ron J Posted: January 21, 2021 at 02:47 PM (#6001045)
#11851. Yeah a very measurable portion of the deaths was avoidable with better management of the various assisted care facilities. Particularly in Ontario and Quebec.

My WAG is that the US could have had it to 120K with better leadership at the federal and state level. How much could have been achieved just at the Federal level -- no idea.
   11854. Mayor Blomberg Posted: January 21, 2021 at 03:14 PM (#6001053)
Washington State's also an interesting point to ask about Governors' effects because much of the state beyond the Sound is politically similar to Idaho, which doesn't get anything like the international traffic that the Seattle area gets, and WA has a ~40 percent lower fatality rate.
   11855. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 21, 2021 at 03:35 PM (#6001059)


sure, maybe, but a few straggling cases outside of china does not mean that a pandemic was inevitable.


Well, it does mean that "stamped out in january, before it ever gets out of china, and all of us around the world never hear about it" wasn't possible. If you want to explain your counterfactual in a way that's consistent with what we actually know about the pandemic, I'm happy to reconsider my position.
   11856. Greg Pope Posted: January 21, 2021 at 04:01 PM (#6001062)
Many many other people who would no longer have long-term health issues. For every person who dies, you probably have a handful with ongoing issues.

I have a friend of a friend (so take this for what it's worth) who had COVID and recovered. He remained fatigued for the next 2 months. Then last week he died from a heart attack at the age of 54. The doctor says that COVID most likely seriously damaged his heart. But this doesn't even get counted as a COVID death.
   11857. Biscuit_pants Posted: January 21, 2021 at 04:08 PM (#6001065)
Washington State's also an interesting point to ask about Governors' effects because much of the state beyond the Sound is politically similar to Idaho, which doesn't get anything like the international traffic that the Seattle area gets, and WA has a ~40 percent lower fatality rate.
While probably one of the larger factors I don't think America is different just because of our politics. I think every country has people that fought against masks and social distancing and probably at a similar percentage to America. Not many countries have the huge differences in climate that we do, we use the automobile way more than any country, we have higher obesity rates and we tend to be culturally different within our country way more than pretty much every other country.

Better leadership would have made a big difference, but in no way do I think big means half. There are way to many other things that make America different in a way that would make it harder to control the virus. I think the obesity rate alone probably was almost a big a factor as politics.
   11858. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: January 21, 2021 at 04:21 PM (#6001069)
But the fact is that it was always seriously odds against that any western democracy would succeed in keeping Covid out. Or deal with the outbreak successfully once it reached.

When it comes to foreign policy, the US doesn't always behave in a democratic fashion. To get a world that effectively quarantines China from the rest of the planet well before the lunar new year (January 25, 2020) requires American leadership, and in particular an American president who takes #### like a potential pandemic seriously, and can convince other nations to do the same.


Nobody accepts China's numbers on their face, but there's good reason to believe that it has been safer COVID-wise in Beijing than in New York. How did they do that?
   11859. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 21, 2021 at 04:22 PM (#6001070)
I think every country has people that fought against masks and social distancing and probably at a similar percentage to America.
What's your basis for this?
   11860. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: January 21, 2021 at 04:29 PM (#6001072)
Nobody accepts China's numbers on their face, but there's good reason to believe that it has been safer COVID-wise in Beijing than in New York. How did they do that?


Authoritarianism. They effectively took people off the streets who exhibited Covid-19 symptoms and kept them isolated (comfortably) until they could determine whether they were actually infected, and beyond that if the answer was 'yes'. There's some good articles/interviews about it; I'll try to find one. But the short version is that China has built a society in which the population generally accepts being abducted for the good of the population as a whole, however the state chooses to define that. Never going to fly in the West, even in some of the least libertarian nations out there.

I don't think a China-like outcome was ever on the cards once planes touched down in Europe and the US with Covid-positive passengers on board. But a Japan-style outcome might have been.
   11861. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 21, 2021 at 05:04 PM (#6001074)
Well, it does mean that "stamped out in january, before it ever gets out of china, and all of us around the world never hear about it" wasn't possible. If you want to explain your counterfactual in a way that's consistent with what we actually know about the pandemic, I'm happy to reconsider my position.

what i said in [11823] and [11830] was not intended to be a rigorously examined scientific assessment. if dozens of cases made it out of china, hundreds, maybe even thousands of cases (depending on where they showed up) had made it out of china, we would not have heard about covid. as long as it ended there, we could have absorbed that.

keep in mind, also, that because the mortality rate for people infected with covid is largely driven by medical facilities becoming overrun with cases, if the density of cases had been reduced, the percentage of people who would die after infection would also be reduced. fewer cases, less lethality; we would not have heard about covid.

i admit that "we would not have heard about covid" is not very precise, so let me adjust that to try to find a more concrete description for what i mean: there would have been a 162-game baseball season, with no limit on fans in attendance, without a single covid-caused cancellation; BBTF would not have had two months-long covid threads; a sitting US congressperson would not have died from covid; tom hanks may still have gotten infected.



the larger point i was speaking out against is the idea that when people think about the question of "what could have been done differently?", they jump ahead to march, as if nothing could have been done before covid had already spread worldwide. i think that takes an unreasonably narrow view of the damage that trump had already done to international relations, to diplomacy with china, to the CDC, the intelligence community (#deepstate) and on, and on, down a very long list. his entire tenure greased the skids for something like this to happen.
   11862. Biscuit_pants Posted: January 21, 2021 at 05:29 PM (#6001084)
What's your basis for this?


In my travels and moving from place to place one thing that is constant is when you remove all the dressing people are people. I think if there are differences they tend to be more on the surface or in some of the customs. When we are hearing reports from other countries it is always from the perspective of their largest cities. If you read any of the local news the attitudes in smaller towns is the same as it is here.

Countries that this may not work for are ones that are very much homogeneous. Homogenous societies are a lot better at getting everyone to be on the same page, though really I think the Scandinavian and maybe Japan would fall into this category.

If you speak the language type in 'Corona virus is a hoax' in any language you choose and you will see a ton of articles in that language about that being a problem in the country it was written in. This changes a bit based off of the freedom of press in the country you choose but the face that the country decides to give the world is almost always better than reality whereas one thing America is better at than anyone in the world is airing our dirty laundry. Our press keeps us honest more than any other country in the world, for good or bad.

   11863. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 21, 2021 at 09:22 PM (#6001113)
Latest estimate for excess non-natural cause deaths since covid started is still only around 15,000. It's possible that's an overbid too, as that's starting March 1, and even in Jan/Feb (before covid) there were already 1000+ excess non-natural deaths using my baseline, implying the baseline is too low. If you normalize that out you are assuming a big increase from 2019, but since non-natural deaths have been on the rise the last several years that is certainly possible. Normalizing for that too and the current figure is around 10,000 excess. My guess is the number is between 10,000 and 20,000. That's for all agegroups, so maybe half or so (5,000 to 10,000 excess non-natural deaths) in the 18-45 age group.
   11864. Mayor Blomberg Posted: January 21, 2021 at 09:32 PM (#6001116)
If you read any of the local news the attitudes in smaller towns is the same as it is here.

Which is to say different. There simply is no "how people are in small towns." (Also: prevalence of hoax beliefs varies from town to town and country to country. Also also: you can't unfactor culture because it shapes belief and behavior.)
   11865. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 21, 2021 at 10:05 PM (#6001118)
"The idea that you can get up here and talk about what you know, what the evidence, what the science is -- let the science speak, It is somewhat of a liberating feeling."

- fauci
   11866. Tin Angel Posted: January 22, 2021 at 12:30 AM (#6001126)
the larger point i was speaking out against is the idea that when people think about the question of "what could have been done differently?", they jump ahead to march, as if nothing could have been done before covid had already spread worldwide. i think that takes an unreasonably narrow view of the damage that trump had already done to international relations, to diplomacy with china, to the CDC, the intelligence community (#deepstate) and on, and on, down a very long list. his entire tenure greased the skids for something like this to happen.


Or, we could stop eating animals raised in filthy conditions, or creating these filthy conditions animals are raised in, or stop pumping them full of hormones just so they can actually survive a couple of years, or stop eating meat altogether...but those things would force people to change, and some people need to tightly hang on to these horrible things for...some reason.
   11867. BrianBrianson Posted: January 22, 2021 at 01:48 AM (#6001130)
One good thing about Ford is that he's the undisputed leader of the right wing populists so that particular group never became an organized anti-mask contingent.


Yeah, Ford is a good template for how to be a right wing populist blow hard but not activately sabotage anti-covid efforts. Trump's still Trump, but if his response to anti-maskers was to call them "a pack of retards who're such pussies they can't handle a measily mask" and started selling MAGA masks for $29.99, the Stateside situation would've been a lot easier to manage.
   11868. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: January 22, 2021 at 07:24 AM (#6001134)
This changes a bit based off of the freedom of press in the country you choose but the face that the country decides to give the world is almost always better than reality whereas one thing America is better at than anyone in the world is airing our dirty laundry. Our press keeps us honest more than any other country in the world, for good or bad.


Getting off the Covid topic a little, but I think America's better than anyone in the world at airing all its laundry, dirty and clean, because it's the cultural hegemon (still). Britain and Germany, the two countries I've spent the most time, tell plenty of stories of their own problems, decline, and internal strife, but there's just a lot less of an audience for them. America's laundry, dirty and clean, gets aired because America just airs more everything.

Trust me, a few days of British tabloids or soap operas and you'll be marvelling that anyone finds the willpower to continue in that nation. Germany's spent decades castigating itself culturally and politically, and lots has been written about its relatively recent willingness to admit to patriotic feelings. Part of French pride in its national identity is its internal strife! I admit, go further afield to China or elsewhere and perhaps things are different, but again, that's not about will, that's about capability.
   11869. Ron J Posted: January 22, 2021 at 08:58 AM (#6001142)
We finally have data on how well it's likely to work putting off the booster dose. The data from Israel is only for the Pfizer vaccine but I think it backs up what most were saying here.

Quoting from the story linked below.

Data on 200,000 elderly Israelis suggests that the first shot alone only lowered infections by 33 per cent—about a third of the roughly 90-per-cent rate that many experts around the world have predicted.

Story
   11870. puck Posted: January 22, 2021 at 10:24 AM (#6001153)
Well, poop.
   11871. bunyon Posted: January 22, 2021 at 10:37 AM (#6001155)
11869: Pfizer estimated 52% efficacy on the first dose after two weeks but gave it with huge "error bars". They, rightly, didn't give actual numbers for range just that it was hard to know and that one dose is not how they tested their vaccine.

I've thought all along trying to massively change the protocol for a vaccine operating on EUA was stupid. Hopefully, this puts an end to it. I mean, yeah, I'd love one shot to be enough, but, if you think that, you should test it that way, not just guess.
   11872. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 22, 2021 at 10:39 AM (#6001158)
Hank Aaron has reportedly passed away. ####.
   11873. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 22, 2021 at 10:41 AM (#6001159)
   11874. AndrewJ Posted: January 22, 2021 at 10:44 AM (#6001160)
I think the past nine months now clearly surpass the last months of 1972 (Jackie Robinson and Clemente) and the 1955-56 offseason (Honus Wagner, Cy Young, Connie Mack and Clark Griffith) in terms of significant baseball deaths.
   11875. Ron J Posted: January 22, 2021 at 10:47 AM (#6001162)
####. Will 2020 never end? RIP Hank.
   11876. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 22, 2021 at 10:52 AM (#6001164)
Aaron very publicly received the COVID vaccine on Jan. 5 to try to model good behavior and show people that it was safe. I hope that doesn’t backfire at all now. (I’m sure he didn’t die of vaccine-related side effects 2 weeks later, but conspiracy theorists have vivid imaginations).
   11877. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: January 22, 2021 at 11:27 AM (#6001182)
1957 Sports Illustrated profile: Murder With A Blunt Instrument

What would have been considered heresy a year ago, people were now prepared to accept as simple fact: this slender, 23-year-old Negro from Mobile, Alabama is the best right-hand hitter seen in the National League since the days of Rogers Hornsby.

Perhaps the most unusual part of the Aaron story is the fact that no one gets very excited about it. Sometimes it is even easy to forget that Henry Aaron is around. Without the physical proportions or explosive speed of a Mickey Mantle, without the breathtaking color of a Willie Mays, without the long and brilliant—and controversial—career of a Ted Williams, Aaron seems to be hardly a personality at all. He says practically nothing, stays out of nightclubs, never loses his cap running the bases, and spits only upon the ground. He has not even had time to become the quiet but lethal legend which is Musial. All he does is walk up to the plate four or five times a day to hit a baseball.

It is then, however, during those brief moments, that the thousands wake up and realize, almost too late, that here before them stands one of the divinely gifted few. He looks small down there in the batter's box and not very deadly at all. He stands well away from the plate, toward the rear of the box, languidly swinging the yellowish-white bat in a low arc. Then the pitcher stretches and throws, Aaron cocks his bat and the ball comes in. At the last moment he strides forward and leans toward the baseball; the bat comes whipping around in a blur almost too fast for the eye to follow and there is a sharp, loud report. A white streak flashes through the infield or into the outfield or over the fence, and Henry Aaron has another base hit. Sometimes he does this two or three times a day. Some days, because he is human, he doesn't do it at all. But, occasionally, because he is Hank Aaron, he does it four or five times. It is this which sets him apart. ...
   11878. Ron J Posted: January 22, 2021 at 11:31 AM (#6001184)
Oh and in more great news on the virus front, Denmark is in lockdown and is still seeing increases of 70% per week. It's down to the fact that one of the new variants is a very effective spreader.

And there's another new variant that they're just not sure that the vaccines will do a good job against. Joy.
   11879. Mayor Blomberg Posted: January 22, 2021 at 01:37 PM (#6001234)
Denmark has an excellent idea of how prevalent the new strain is because Denmark’s State Serum Institute, a government agency that tracks diseases and advises health policy [...] has begun sequencing every positive coronavirus test to check for mutations. By contrast, the United States is sequencing 0.3 percent of cases, ranking it 43rd in the world and leaving it largely blind to the variant’s spread.

and from the UK
at a news briefing at Downing Street on Friday, Johnson and his advisers gave the first indication that the strain may also be more deadly.
England’s chief scientific advisor, Patrick Valance, gave an example. He said that among 1,000 men in England 60 years or older, the original virus would kill 10. The new variant, he said, would kill 13 or 14.
Since the new variant was discovered in Britain last year, public health officials have stressed that the new mutation did not appear to make people sicker or increase deaths — and so this small but measurable uptick in mortality is potentially worrying.

   11880. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: January 22, 2021 at 02:21 PM (#6001245)
I don't think, even with competent leadership, that an Australia or NZ outcome was possible in the US. But a WAG of a 50-75% reduction in deaths seems very possible. And that's without accounting for the very real effects of what steagles is talking about in 11861 (even as I don't think things like a 162 game season with full attendance were likely in any scenario)...
   11881. Tony S Posted: January 22, 2021 at 03:39 PM (#6001266)

"State Serum Institute"? Okay. :)

I have an 83-year-old tenant/housemate. He got his first dose of the Pfizer vaccine a couple of days ago, at our local hospital. He doesn't report any ill reactions other than the expected sore arm.

Maryland seems to have a coherent vaccination plan, though how quickly it gets carried out is going to be a function of supply.

   11882. Lassus Posted: January 22, 2021 at 07:19 PM (#6001314)
Due to a lack of vaccine supply allocation from New York State, Oneida County is out of vaccine doses and will not be taking new appointments until more is received. Please keep checking back here for updates.
List of New York State-operated vaccination locations and availability through April 16th:


Javits Center New York, NY No Appointments Available Currently

Jones Beach - Field 3 Wantagh, NY No Appointments Available Currently

State Fair Expo Center: NYS Fairgrounds Syracuse, NY No Appointments Available Currently

SUNY Albany Albany, NY No Appointments Available Currently

Westchester County Center White Plains, NY No Appointments Available Currently

SUNY Stony Brook University Innovation and Discovery Center Stony Brook, NY No Appointments Available Currently

SUNY Potsdam Field House Potsdam, NY Appointments Available

Aqueduct Racetrack - Racing Hall South Ozone Park, NY No Appointments Available Currently

Plattsburgh International Airport -Connecticut Building Plattsburgh, NY Appointments Available

SUNY Binghamton Johnson City, NY No Appointments Available Currently

SUNY Polytechnic Institute - Wildcat Field House Utica, NY No Appointments Available Currently

University at Buffalo South Campus - Harriman Hall Buffalo, NY No Appointments Available Currently

Rochester Dome Arena Henrietta, NY No Appointments Available Currently

* Last updated on 1/22/2021, 5:03:44 PM
   11883. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 23, 2021 at 08:33 AM (#6001352)
I had dinner last night (outdoors) with an old friend who was convinced that total deaths in 2020 were essentially no different from 2019 levels. He wasn’t arguing that COVID wasn’t deadly, but he genuinely believed that fewer car accidents, flu deaths and the like had almost completely offset the rise in deaths from COVID.

This guy is an Ivy League-educated data analyst, and I don’t write this to criticize him in particular — he works on climate data and hasn’t spent time digging into the mortality numbers like some of us have. He’s not a lockdown opponent or COVID denialist. And he believed me when I told him that he was incorrect (or at least, he didn’t argue with me and said he was going to look into it further).

I just bring it up because it shows how prevalent this kind of misinformation is, and how normal people who don’t really spend time on this stuff may have no idea what the actual numbers are.
   11884. Mayor Blomberg Posted: January 23, 2021 at 01:02 PM (#6001364)
Dave, if you're in touch with him again, please update. I noted the other day how out of touch I'd become with the situation in Texas, given a book in production and the start of the spring semester. But I saw yesterday that Brazos County's (Home of the Aggies) ICUs are running at 131% occupancy, and The Texas Tribune reports,
Across Texas, hospital intensive care units are being battered as COVID-19 cases continue to rise in a post-holiday surge. Dozens of facilities have reported that their ICUs have been at or above 100% capacity for weeks, leaving staff overworked and stretched thin.
More than 50 Texas hospitals are currently reporting that their ICUs are 100% full or higher, and a dozen of them have been full for more than half of the 24 weeks since hospitals began reporting that information in July, according to a Texas Tribune analysis of data released by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
   11885. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 23, 2021 at 02:15 PM (#6001373)
I emailed him the CDC’s link for excess deaths this morning. He responded thanking me and said he was going to try to figure out why the data he had previously looked at showed something different. I suggested that it was probably due to reporting lags in the CDC information. He admitted he hadn’t looked at the data since October or November, so I suspect that’s the culprit.

FWIW I had debated with him on Facebook about the IFR back in the spring, and convinced him it was higher than he previously believed. He had only read the Ioannidis analysis before that, but changed his views when I showed him the various studies we looked at here.
   11886. Mayor Blomberg Posted: January 23, 2021 at 03:06 PM (#6001377)
I'll hold to the encouraging side of that story! Thanks.
   11887. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: January 25, 2021 at 11:04 AM (#6001572)
I know I'm a broken record on this point, but the CDC's reported covid deaths just today went over 350,000. That means they have gotten way, way behind the most conservative reporting tallies. Covidtracking is over 410,000 now. JHU is almost 420,000. Worldometers is almost 430,000. Of course, total deaths are not covid deaths, but it's good reason to think that they have gotten way behind on reporting all deaths as well.

(As a reminder, in October, when we had roughly half the total reported covid deaths we have now, the CDC was only 4,000 behind covidtracking. Since October 9 the CDC has reported 150,000 covid deaths while covidtracking has reported 205,000, and worldometers has reported 210,000.)
   11888. Ron J Posted: January 25, 2021 at 11:10 AM (#6001574)
Moderna says their vaccine is effective against both new major variants. Good news if accurate. (To be clear, only normal skepticism -- no particular reason to think Moderna is lying and good reasons why they would not want to lie)
   11889. bunyon Posted: January 25, 2021 at 12:31 PM (#6001608)
Derek Lowe surveys the vaccine landscape.

I'm actually a little encouraged to see some failures. The quick success of moderna and Pfizer made it seem too easy.

As Ron J posts, moderna's appears to be effective against B.1.1.7 and B.1.351, which is excellent news.
   11890. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 25, 2021 at 06:09 PM (#6001701)

A former client of mine just died from COVID-19. He was 68 and had been battling cancer already but still, this thing sucks. Stay safe, folks.
   11891. SoSH U at work Posted: January 25, 2021 at 06:22 PM (#6001705)
I didn't have high hopes for a post at BTF involving Derek Lowe and his thoughts on COVID-19 vaccines.
   11892. Ron J Posted: January 25, 2021 at 06:31 PM (#6001710)
#11891 Of course not. Nomar Garciaparra is the guy who knows about saving lives.

But yeah. That was a disconcerting name to see in an article title. I trust bunyon enough to have checked the link and it was an interesting read.
   11893. bunyon Posted: January 25, 2021 at 09:06 PM (#6001730)
Oh crap. I really did mean to add a “no, not that one” to the post.

Derek is a long time medicinal chemist and science blogger. He’s a good place to keep up with chemistry and biochemistry and has been doing a good job boiling the vaccine story down.
   11894. Ron J Posted: January 25, 2021 at 09:11 PM (#6001731)
Hmm. Devil's in the details. Moderna is saying that their vaccine "may be less effective against the B1351 variant found in South Africa" but "is expected to work"

That's slightly less good news than what was initially reported. Still, "less effective" is still probably a win.
   11895. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: January 26, 2021 at 09:06 AM (#6001773)
Johnson & Johnson is wrapping up their trials, they had 45,000 participants from all over the globe, including South Africa. At this point they are not sure if the new strains will be included in their testing, but they could be. Will be interesting to see what their efficacy numbers show, and if those numbers vary greatly from region to region.
   11896. bunyon Posted: January 26, 2021 at 10:19 AM (#6001791)
There is no way to correctly judge vaccine efficacy without a large population study. However, given the in vitro tools available, efficacy against B1351 looks good. The data isn't good enough to scientifically be certain, but there is no reason to assume the worst. There is growing frustration that the media plays up the downside. Maybe that's just general paranoia and it's very likely there will, eventually, be a variant the current vaccines don't hit.

It's kind of like the reinfection scares that keep popping up every now and then. Certainly some will get reinfected and early on there wasn't proof you couldn't be reinfected. But that is assuming everything breaks against us, which isn't the way to bet. And, sure enough, reinfection is very unlikely, even if it's really scary.

If the moderna press release data is accurate, it's really good news.
   11897. puck Posted: January 26, 2021 at 10:36 AM (#6001798)
When they say the vaccine trials were 90+ % effective, what does that mean? I assume that's relative to the control group in some way?

And were the trial people given any instructions or was it just assumed they were a pretty good cross sample of the population, so the behavior in regards to distancing, masks, handwashing, etc. was to be varied? (I realize that can't be perfect and is very difficult to get the proportions of the test population similar to the actual population.)

Is there any expectation as to how effective a vaccine is during a period of high outbreaks (like now) and with someone relaxing their distancing etc.? I know they say not to do that but just about everyone vaccinated is going to take some additional risks, and I imagine some will act as if they are completely immune.
   11898. Eudoxus Posted: January 26, 2021 at 11:25 AM (#6001809)
The rolling seven-day average for daily new cases hit a local maximum in Israel on January 14 at 8395. It's dropped pretty much monotonically since then and is now at 6874. Let's assume two weeks after vaccination to get significant protection -- on January 1, Israel was at about 12% vaccinated. So maybe there's some very tentative data suggesting that that's enough to start the curve in the right direction. (Too simplistic, of course -- other factors could be shaping the curve.) The vaccination tracker numbers are I think just first doses, so that's a more promising result than I would have expected. Israel is now up to 45% vaccinated, and probably by now some small number of those have received both doses, so it will be interesting to see how their curve develops over the next month or so.
   11899. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: January 26, 2021 at 12:52 PM (#6001826)
When they say the vaccine trials were 90+ % effective, what does that mean? I assume that's relative to the control group in some way?

Good question, I would like some more clarification about this. I had long wondered "what does 94% effective actually mean?"

I ready one article on one of the two early vaccines that said they counted up all covid cases in the vaccine study. 94% of those who came down with covid were in the placebo group, and 6% had been vaccinated. So that is how one vaccine describes its effectiveness. Humans are always trying to quantify things down to one number or measure, and there may not be such a number for a vaccine.
   11900. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: January 26, 2021 at 12:59 PM (#6001829)
Page 119 of 122 pages ‹ First  < 117 118 119 120 121 >  Last ›

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Infinite Yost (Voxter)
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogWho is the MLB logo?
(38 - 2:04pm, Feb 27)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogSlimmer Vlad a sight to see: 'I feel quicker'
(31 - 1:59pm, Feb 27)
Last: Walks Clog Up the Bases

NewsblogOakland A’s outline ballpark plans in environmental impact report
(5 - 1:47pm, Feb 27)
Last: Mayor Blomberg

NewsblogSinclair readies new sports video app, pushes on gamification
(13 - 1:25pm, Feb 27)
Last: Mayor Blomberg

NewsblogFull Transcript of Mariners President Kevin Mather’s Remarks to Bellevue Breakfast Rotary Club
(145 - 12:57pm, Feb 27)
Last: .

NewsblogOT - Soccer Thread - Winter Is Here
(880 - 12:42pm, Feb 27)
Last: AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale

NewsblogSeattle Mariners prospect Jarred Kelenic says team is punishing him for refusing to sign contract extension
(42 - 12:00pm, Feb 27)
Last: JRVJ

NewsblogKris Bryant Open to New Deal, Knows Time as Cub Could Wind Down
(7 - 11:12am, Feb 27)
Last: JRVJ

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1936 Discussion
(7 - 8:21am, Feb 27)
Last: kcgard2

NewsblogTD Garden, Fenway Park Can Open At 12% Capacity For Fans Starting March 22
(19 - 10:30pm, Feb 26)
Last: Pirate Joe

NewsblogTwins prospect Royce Lewis, the No. 1 pick in 2017 draft, tears ACL and will likely miss 2021 season
(21 - 9:49pm, Feb 26)
Last: Never Give an Inge (Dave)

NewsblogNBA 2020 Season kick-off thread
(1772 - 9:29pm, Feb 26)
Last: asinwreck

NewsblogDetroit Tigers top prospect Spencer Torkelson cuts finger, will miss spring training games
(10 - 8:29pm, Feb 26)
Last: BDC

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1935 Ballot
(5 - 5:19pm, Feb 26)
Last: Yardape

NewsblogThe Negro League Stars That MLB Kept Out — And Is Finally Recognizing
(17 - 4:45pm, Feb 26)
Last: Walt Davis

Page rendered in 0.9415 seconds
48 querie(s) executed