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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 12714 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   12201. Lassus Posted: March 03, 2021 at 01:05 PM (#6007426)
RE-posted, for the flip:


Literal conversation with co-worker, 10 seconds ago:

ME: I hope you'll be getting your vaccine?

THEM: I won't be getting the vaccine.

ME: Why, may I ask?

THEM: I don't trust the government.

ME: Good luck, I guess.
   12202. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 03, 2021 at 01:53 PM (#6007443)
Dave, pharmacies in TX are a lottery. There's not even a page I can quickly access listing them, only a couple-weeks old KHOU article saying that some HEB (absolutely no surprise there and a whole 70 CVS stores state wide (I'd be shocked if there aren't more than 70 in Harris county), some Good Neighbor, and Some Walmart will have them and be following the state 1A-1B protocols.

So, yeah, call all the stores in each chain and see which ones have it and then keep calling to see who has some they need to get rid of before they spoil. More or less a full time job ... and that's assuming you have the ability to travel maybe 20-30 miles to the store. I'm lucky in that way, but I've chosen not to jump the line because then I'd be one of those people bbc describes so well.
   12203. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: March 03, 2021 at 02:00 PM (#6007447)
THEM: I don't trust the government.

All three vaccines are the product of capitalist companies.

What am i saying? Facts don't matter to these people.
   12204. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 03, 2021 at 02:01 PM (#6007448)
Lassus, have you been able to get yours yet? NY is now giving them to people under 65 with certain medical conditions and I seem to recall you are diabetic, which would qualify. I was looking online earlier and I saw there are appts available at the state site in Utica.

I probably qualify as well (I have a mild form of epilepsy, thankfully have been seizure-free for a few years now) but there’s no appointments available at any of the state sites near me right now. I also don’t think epilepsy is an actual comorbidity unless you have a severe case, so I don’t feel an intense urgency to jump the line although it would be nice to be able to visit my parents again.
   12205. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 03, 2021 at 02:09 PM (#6007450)
LISA -- for what it's worth, after more digging I found that this site list allotments to pharmacies and clinics. No, of course it wouldn't go as far as phone numbers, but it does list addresses
   12206. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 03, 2021 at 02:15 PM (#6007451)
The Catholic Archdiocese of New Orleans is asking Catholics to avoid the recently-approved Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine, which it says is “morally compromised” by its “extensive use of abortion-derived cell lines.”
   12207. Lassus Posted: March 03, 2021 at 02:16 PM (#6007452)
Lassus, have you been able to get yours yet? NY is now giving them to people under 65 with certain medical conditions and I seem to recall you are diabetic, which would qualify. I was looking online earlier and I saw there are appts available at the state site in Utica.

Thank you very much for asking. I've tried not to yap about it too much on the ex-pat site (which many wish you'd [and Lisa, and Mayor, and Barry etc.] consider coming over to as well) or here; but based on my employment as public school contractor, I did receive my first Pfizer shot in Syracuse on 1/19/21 and my second on 2/11/21. My wife (also in 1b) gets her second Moderna in a week. As always, it was the appointment scheduling that's a goddamned nightmare. Quickly appearing, quickly disappearing, endless frustrating and fruitless typing, etc., etc. A shame all this vaccination mess makes the entire planet look like we're barely out of societal and technological infancy.
   12208. Lassus Posted: March 03, 2021 at 02:23 PM (#6007457)
What am i saying? Facts don't matter to these people.

He's pretty countrified-queer apolitical. 1. Next paycheck, 2. who cares?
   12209. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 03, 2021 at 06:53 PM (#6007534)

Glad to hear that Lassus. My company blocked Discord so I couldn't really use it during the day, even when I was working from home on my work laptop. Maybe I'll check it out now that I'm no longer at that job and working on my personal computer more.
   12210. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: March 03, 2021 at 07:33 PM (#6007541)
I found out recently that even though I got furloughed by the university for this semester, since I'm still on the faculty roster I am eligible now for tier 1b. Had I realized that before Monday morning I might have been able to get an appointment this week, but I'm fine that all the slots got taken. Maybe next week.
   12211. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: March 03, 2021 at 07:36 PM (#6007542)
countrified-queer


I tried looking up what this meant and am still not sure. Like he's queer but also culturally part of rural America?
   12212. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 03, 2021 at 09:46 PM (#6007558)
12210, interesting. Here it means K-12; the only reason there are public colleges in TX is so that the lege has someone to #### on.

ETA: right, and football
   12213. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: March 03, 2021 at 11:59 PM (#6007579)
I tried looking up what this meant and am still not sure. Like he's queer but also culturally part of rural America?

lindsay graham.
   12214. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 04, 2021 at 12:23 AM (#6007581)
lindsay graham.
Well played, sir. The judges would have also accepted “The guy from the tiger show.”
   12215. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 04, 2021 at 01:11 AM (#6007582)
While it has the power to require customers to wear masks before entering, McClelland said H-E-B won't take that step – in part because of belligerent customers (and some workers) who have caused nearly 2,000 in-store incidents surrounding masks at Houston stores alone.

Neanderthal indeed.
   12216. Lassus Posted: March 04, 2021 at 08:09 AM (#6007589)
I tried looking up what this meant and am still not sure. Like he's queer but also culturally part of rural America?

Heh. I made it up. Yeah. Just not really part of the more well-known urban or suburban queer landscape. To be fair it's more post-industrial, Utica-area, but these nothing cities are all surrounded by poor small-town shitholes and farms.
   12217. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 04, 2021 at 11:34 AM (#6007622)

Some positive news regarding COVID and heart issues:

A new study on the topic in JAMA Cardiology is based on the screening of 789 professional athletes who tested positive for Covid-19 between May and October in Major League Baseball, Major League Soccer, the National Hockey League, National Football League, and the men’s and women’s National Basketball Association.

The paper shows that 0.6% of those athletes ultimately had findings suggestive of inflammatory heart disease. Five athletes were held out of competition because of their cardiac results. Three had myocarditis, which is heart inflammation, and two had pericarditis, which is swelling of the tissue that surrounds the heart. All had had moderately severe cases of Covid.


The prevalence answer comes after cardiologists have reassured the rest of the population that, in general, they do not need to fear hidden inflammation when returning to exercise after asymptomatic, mild or even moderate cases of the virus.

This is because recreational athletes typically don’t exert themselves under the same pressure as professionals, and more reliably respond to warning signs such as difficulty breathing, dizziness or feeling faint, said Christopher Newton-Cheh, a cardiologist at Massachusetts General Hospital.

“Professional athletes are more vulnerable because they have a lot of incentives to really push themselves,” said Dr. Newton-Cheh. “I think they require a bit more guidance and caution…they’re more likely to be redlining it than a recreational athlete.”

He advises that weekend warriors who weren’t hospitalized for the virus can return to exercise once 10 days have passed and Covid symptoms are gone, with the possible exception of loss of taste or smell—as long as they are able to go slowly, ramp up, recognize that they will not immediately be back to their pre-Covid condition, and follow up on what they find.

People who are struggling to perform normal activities, or had a moderately severe case and are over 65 or have a history of cardiovascular disease, should have screenings before returning to exercise, Dr. Newton-Cheh said. Dr. Engel said that for people who experience significant symptoms, such as shortness of breath or chest pains, screenings are “absolutely necessary.”
   12218. puck Posted: March 05, 2021 at 10:39 AM (#6007732)
Should the Pfizer/Moderna be sought out over the J&J, or is the difference not really worth it? If one has a choice, should one be calling around to find the clinic with one of the mRNA deals?

I had noticed this story about Detroit turning down a batch of J&J...they claim the bottleneck is their capacity to administer and it wouldn't help, but you'd think they could find way to distribute the J&J. But I'm sure a lot of folks have that question about the J&J.

One isn't "locked in" to any one vaccine right? So if down the road people start getting "this year's covid vaccine," you just get any vaccine? You don't have to keep getting a Pfizer, or mRNA?
   12219. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: March 05, 2021 at 11:30 AM (#6007736)
Unless you've received direct medical advice to the contrary for your specific health status, I would 100%, no-doubt accept any of the vaccines out there over rolling the dice and waiting for a later one. If all of them were completely identical otherwise, I suppose the J&J one is more convenient if you only need one dose. But people rejecting one vaccine for the hope of another is a good way to slow general vaccine take-up and it taking longer to blunt the impact of the pandemic. (Disclaimer: just an internet guy, no medical qualifications.)
   12220. Greg Pope Posted: March 05, 2021 at 11:34 AM (#6007737)
Should the Pfizer/Moderna be sought out over the J&J, or is the difference not really worth it?

I've seen a lot of medical professionals on news shows that say to take J&J if you can get it. The difference in efficacy is most likely a product of when and where they were tested. J&J is probably not quite as good as the others, but it's not the quoted difference between 65% and 95%.
   12221. Greg Pope Posted: March 05, 2021 at 11:36 AM (#6007738)
The Catholic Archdiocese of New Orleans is asking Catholics to avoid the recently-approved Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine, which it says is “morally compromised” by its “extensive use of abortion-derived cell lines.”

The US Council of Bishops said that if you are given the choice, you should opt for Moderna or Pfizer. But if you are not given the choice, and the one that you can get is J&J, then you should take it.
   12222. bunyon Posted: March 05, 2021 at 11:56 AM (#6007742)
Should the Pfizer/Moderna be sought out over the J&J, or is the difference not really worth it? If one has a choice, should one be calling around to find the clinic with one of the mRNA deals?

I had noticed this story about Detroit turning down a batch of J&J...they claim the bottleneck is their capacity to administer and it wouldn't help, but you'd think they could find way to distribute the J&J. But I'm sure a lot of folks have that question about the J&J.



Interesting take.

One of the things mentioned in that twitter thread is that Detroit has enough of Moderna and Pfizer to meet demand. Given that, sure, go with them instead of J&J. The other point of the thread is that you can't tell people J&J is 70% effective and that the others are 95% effective and then say they're the same.

Basically, because they were different trials, in different places, they might be the same. We just don't know from what data we have. Absolutely, they're all three effective, and very. If J&J had been first, we'd have hailed it as a savior. If you haven't had a vaccine and someone offers to stick a J&J in your arm, say yes. But I think it's sane to prefer the ones with greater listed efficacy even though they might be the same. Or J&J could even be better, though it's unlikely.
   12223. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: March 05, 2021 at 12:06 PM (#6007746)
If others are avoiding J&J, maybe I can get a shot sooner.

J&J's efficacy is higher than what we were hoping for 6 months ago.

We are spoiled with how effective the vaccines have tested, thank goodness for science.

   12224. Lassus Posted: March 05, 2021 at 12:49 PM (#6007766)
One isn't "locked in" to any one vaccine right? So if down the road people start getting "this year's covid vaccine," you just get any vaccine? You don't have to keep getting a Pfizer, or mRNA?

I think this is an interesting question. I have the impression that Moderna and Pfizer as mRNA are pretty similar, so a switch from year to year is nothing.

No study has actually come out regarding the effectiveness over time yet, correct? (Ignoring the variant elephant in the room, of course.)
   12225. bunyon Posted: March 05, 2021 at 01:33 PM (#6007771)
I think there is no way to know how boosters will go. It's possible J&J will end up needing one. It's possible the mRNA don't. If the booster is for a variant, I would think what would matter is that the new shot is active against the variant, in which case there probably isn't any need to keep with the same company.

But if it's just a booster to reinforce the first, probably a good idea to stay with them.

The other possibility is you'd need a booster with a different adjuvant, in which case you'd want to change.


A lot of unknowns.
   12226. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: March 05, 2021 at 02:55 PM (#6007783)
In raw numbers, 2020 was the deadliest year in motor vehicle deaths since 2007.
...
According to data collected by the government, total miles driven in the U.S. dropped 13% last year. Yet, the death rate per every million miles actually spiked by 24%—the highest net increase seen since 1924, when the National Safety Council first began collecting this data.
   12227. Ron J Posted: March 05, 2021 at 03:11 PM (#6007784)
12225 The variant from Brazil is likely to require boosters to deal with.
   12228. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 05, 2021 at 04:09 PM (#6007795)
withdrawn comment; I see that the lifting of the mask ordinance is not effective until Wednesday. I'll know Friday what compliance looks like.
   12229. puck Posted: March 05, 2021 at 07:50 PM (#6007808)
One thought about boosters...I wonder how many people will remember which one they got. Hopefully you don't need to stick with the same company as I'd guess a significant number of people will forget.
   12230. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 05, 2021 at 07:53 PM (#6007809)
One thought about boosters...I wonder how many people will remember which one they got. Hopefully you don't need to stick with the same company as I'd guess a significant number of people will forget.

It's ok, they can just check the microchip :)

But seriously, yes this is a valid point. There are some vaccines that I don't even remember whether I got them or not.
   12231. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 05, 2021 at 07:55 PM (#6007810)
But seriously, yes this is a valid point. There are some vaccines that I don't even remember whether I got them or not.

Doesn't your doctor keep records, or do you get them at pharmacies?
   12232. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 05, 2021 at 10:15 PM (#6007812)
One of the things mentioned in that twitter thread is that Detroit has enough of Moderna and Pfizer to meet demand.
That seems quite unlikely unless Detroit has far more vaccine skeptics than the rest of the country. Even jurisdictions that are doing a better job at vaccine administration are limited by the available supply, and would do more if they had more vaccine.
   12233. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: March 05, 2021 at 11:13 PM (#6007814)
Here in Ventura County, new appointments for the week open every Monday morning. And all the appointment times for the weeks get booked really quickly. We've been on tier 1b for a couple weeks now, though and haven't opened 1c yet, so possibly this upcoming week they won't fill up quite as fast, as the most eager people eligible have already gotten theirs. Once they open tier 2, though, I expect at least a month of untempered demand.
   12234. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: March 07, 2021 at 06:24 PM (#6007894)
Moderna #1 for me today. It feels like there really is a light at the end of the tunnel. Up to now, wearing a mask was mostly good citizenship leavened with self-interest; the vaccine is self-interest leavened with a pinch of good citizenship, wearing a mask after dose #2 will be good citizenship leavened with a tiny dose of self-interest.

Please folks, wear the f'in mask, OVER THE NOSE, until this thing has faded away. I can't believe the selifshness and lack of concern for fellow countryman that I see. I have great concern if there is a war with China; a response like we've seen with the pandemic will have the country surrendering within 6 months.
   12235. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 07, 2021 at 06:54 PM (#6007897)
Doesn't your doctor keep records, or do you get them at pharmacies?

Sure, but I’ve had several different primary care doctors over the years, and one of them died about 10 years ago so I basically don’t have my records from before that point.
   12236. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 08, 2021 at 10:43 AM (#6007925)
Please folks, wear the f'in mask, OVER THE NOSE, until this thing has faded away.


I don't think it's going to fade away. I think we can, by the fall, get to a point where there are a few thousand cases a day and a few hundred dead a month. I don't know that we're going to be able to get below that floor, at least before the end of the century.
   12237. Ron J Posted: March 08, 2021 at 10:59 AM (#6007927)
Troubled roll out up here (Ontario/Canada). Still, I found out I qualify for the next wave -- opening in April.
   12238. Ron J Posted: March 08, 2021 at 11:12 AM (#6007928)
#12201 According to a poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation, 28% of Republicans will definitely not get vaccinated (with 18% planning to wait and see). These numbers are quite a bit higher than the public at large. And it's really weird as prior to Covid, Republicans made up a pretty normal percentage of vaccination skeptics.

And to chime on to 12236, with the overall numbers we're seeing yeah the best the US is going to manage is keeping it simmering. With periodic flareups.
   12239. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 08, 2021 at 11:26 AM (#6007930)
I don't think it's going to fade away. I think we can, by the fall, get to a point where there are a few thousand cases a day and a few hundred dead a month. I don't know that we're going to be able to get below that floor, at least before the end of the century.

Maybe, but at that point most people should be able to go about their normal lives.
   12240. Eudoxus Posted: March 08, 2021 at 11:57 AM (#6007933)
Is there a good source for analysis of the demographics of COVID deaths and the interaction with vaccination? US deaths have dropped from a daily peak of 3460 (rolling seven day average) on January 26 to 1725 yesterday, so now down almost exactly half. The US now has 9.35% of the population fully vaccinated. That should be enough to cover the 80+ age group very thoroughly, although I haven't found details on the demographics of the vaccinated population. So, are we seeing the drop in deaths that we'd expect from that population vaccination? I also haven't found good statistics on the demographics of the recent deaths to see if there's a clear vaccination effect there. (Also helpful would be just raw numbers on how many of the fatalities have and have not been vaccinated.)
   12241. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 08, 2021 at 12:33 PM (#6007938)

Maybe, but at that point most people should be able to go about their normal lives.


I agree, but a lot of folks I've seen saying "wear masks until it's gone" and ... that won't happen. When it gets to flu levels or below (in terms of deaths), I think we go back to normal and live with what we've got.

That should be enough to cover the 80+ age group very thoroughly, although I haven't found details on the demographics of the vaccinated population.


I've seen this.
   12242. Eudoxus Posted: March 08, 2021 at 12:52 PM (#6007940)
Thanks. Statistics here show about 60% of the total US COVID deaths to date have been among people 75 or older. Your link gives 69% of the 75+ population having had at least a first dose. Full efficacy in death prevention would then predict about a 41% drop in deaths. In fact we've seen a 50% drop (over the last six weeks). Hard to get a really good sense due to various conflating factors (time lag to death, decreased efficacy of first dose online, vaccination effects among the <75 age group), but seems pretty consistent.

On the other hand, new cases has dropped to 1/6 of the early January peak, so it's tricky to disentangle vaccination effects from a possible end-of-winter/holiday-surge decrease.
   12243. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 08, 2021 at 12:55 PM (#6007941)
So, are we seeing the drop in deaths that we'd expect from that population vaccination? I also haven't found good statistics on the demographics of the recent deaths to see if there's a clear vaccination effect there. (Also helpful would be just raw numbers on how many of the fatalities have and have not been vaccinated.)

There’s a several week lag in reporting of deaths, and a 1-2+ lag between infection and death, so I don’t think you should look at reported deaths today and expect it to reflect current vaccination levels. Hospitalizations have been declining in line with the decline in cases since early January—that’s probably the best real-time indicator of the current state of affairs. Current hospitalization levels are now less than 1/3 of the January peak. How much of that is due to vaccinations, it’s hard to say.
   12244. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 08, 2021 at 01:11 PM (#6007944)
Israel has probably been the biggest success story in terms of vaccine rollout. They have seen a ~55% reduction in reported cases from the peak, but a ~75% reduction in reported deaths. So there is some evidence that vaccinating the oldest people first is having a positive effect there.
   12245. . Posted: March 08, 2021 at 04:09 PM (#6007956)
I'm getting back to normal. Going to Rangers-Flyers and Rangers-Sabres in the next 2-3 weeks at MSG. Requires negative COVID PCR test within 72 hours. I was expecting a logistical hassle, if not nightmare, with appointments and lag times and the like but the Garden has teamed with Vault Health for at-home saliva tests via Zoom and UPS. Only about 2,000 fans, nearest people will be way more than 6 feet away, way less crowded than your typical neighborhood bodega or grocery store. No qualms, no rational reason for them.

To jump ahead to future milestones, we're not at the tipping point yet, but at some point there will be enough vaccine availability and vaccination opportunity such that any ethical obligation of the vaccinated to the voluntarily un-vaccinated shrinks to the functional equivalent of zero. I do anticipate a bunch of hand-wringing around that point if the demographic breakdown in the voluntarily un-vaccinated is ... un-right. I'd estimate that ethical tipping point maybe sometime mid-summer. We're not there yet.
   12246. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: March 09, 2021 at 02:36 PM (#6008032)
Ohio opens vaccination to everyone over 50 on Thursday. Getting there.
   12247. Eudoxus Posted: March 09, 2021 at 05:10 PM (#6008043)
OK, some sloppy projections:

(1) US daily deaths (7 day average) have gone from 2042 on February 22 to 1640 on March 8. That's a decay rate of about 1.5% per day. Summing the geometric sequence, that projects to another 105,000 deaths.

(2) Same thing with cases: we've gone from 69622 on February 22 to 58838 on March 8, for a decay rate of about 1.2% per day. That projects to another 4.9 million cases. At that rate, it will be 90 days before we reach 20,000 cases a day (just below the low point from last summer), and 337 days before we drop below 1000 cases per day.

(3) And hospitalizations: we've gone from 56154 on February 22 to 40212 on March 8, for a decay rate of about 2.35% per day. No point in summing on that number, but 29 days to get to 20000 hospitalizations, 58 to get to 10000, and 154 days to get to 1000 hospitalizations. (Since April, the US hasn't been under 30000 hospitalizations at any point.)

That's pretty junky data, but putting it up here mostly so that I can run the numbers again in two weeks and see how the projections compare.
   12248. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: March 10, 2021 at 06:24 PM (#6008153)
Cases have been creeping up for about three weeks in Michigan. Not as fast as the fall, but still up. Hopefully some of the vulnerable being populated helps keep the very bad outcome rates down. I don't have any takes here other than it's a bummer and hope it goes back downward soon.
   12249. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: March 10, 2021 at 08:01 PM (#6008167)
Cases have been creeping up for about three weeks in Michigan. Not as fast as the fall, but still up. Hopefully some of the vulnerable being populated helps keep the very bad outcome rates down. I don't have any takes here other than it's a bummer and hope it goes back downward soon.


But I should say that this guy who's seemingly compiling the headline numbers the way COVID Tracking Project did has cases down nationally steady still. So IDK what is up here in Michigan.
   12250. base ball chick Posted: March 10, 2021 at 09:19 PM (#6008176)
people ARE getting infected after getting vaccinated

i would like to know how many people get SICK not dead. covid sick can last for a very long time even if you don't DIE

i want to know if you do catch covid after being vaccinated if you are still able to spread it
   12251. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: March 10, 2021 at 09:34 PM (#6008180)
Lisa, the J&J vaccine had patients who got sick, but had zero hospitalizations and zero deaths.

It appears that the vaccineS reduce the severity in all ways. Less likely to get infected, less likely to be severe, less likely in the hospital, less likely to die. I imagine you can still spread it, but your ability is reduced.





   12252. Ron J Posted: March 11, 2021 at 07:31 AM (#6008212)
Further to #12251 same appears true of all of the vaccines. Even the lowish effectiveness of some vaccines after a single dose were tremendously effective at reducing death and hospitalization.

Oh yeah, looks like Moderna at least was effective against the variant from Brazil -- at least in lab tests.

Unfortunately the biggest piece of current bad news is that Brazil appears to be creating conditions for more and more mutations. Non-zero chance of producing a scenario out of some kind of zombie movie.
   12253. JJ1986 Posted: March 11, 2021 at 08:38 AM (#6008216)
It's been a year since things shut down for real.
   12254. Eudoxus Posted: March 11, 2021 at 09:49 PM (#6008351)
Continuing to track changes in the US death rate:

March 9: 1640 -> 1585, 3.3% drop
March 10: 1585 -> 1477, 6.9% drop
March 11: 1477 -> 1403, 5% drop.

Meanwhile Brazil has overtaken the US as country with the highest daily death total, with Brazil now at 1705 (and rising sharply) and the US at 1403. (I haven't dug through the data enough to see how look in per capita daily death totals.)
   12255. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 11, 2021 at 10:18 PM (#6008359)
I was able to get the J&J shot on Monday night due a pre-existing medical condition. The side effects were pretty much as advertised and described by others — I had a fever and was pretty under the weather for 24 hours; the following day the fever was gone but I had some back pain (which may not have been related to the vaccine, but I have seen others describe this as a side effect). Today I was back to normal with just a bit of lingering muscle soreness in my back, nothing serious and it didn’t prevent me from going for a run this evening.
   12256. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 11, 2021 at 10:55 PM (#6008372)
Congrats Dave
   12257. Random Transaction Generator Posted: March 11, 2021 at 11:08 PM (#6008375)
Meanwhile Brazil has overtaken the US as country with the highest daily death total, with Brazil now at 1705 (and rising sharply) and the US at 1403.

How is India avoiding massive infection/death tolls? They have less than 10% the per capita cases and deaths of the US.

Are they undercounting on unheard of scale, or did they really seem to get the infection (relatively) under control early on?

   12258. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: March 12, 2021 at 12:07 AM (#6008379)
In a move sure to disappoint the spittoon-dinging cowboys we assume make up a core demographic for The CW’s Walker, a USA Today article about the pandemic’s impact on TV includes the detail that the show has had to use “computer graphics to approximate spit.” This comes as part of broader changes to how “intimate scenes,” saliva-filled or not, are shot when productions must take social distancing into account.

While we pity the temporary loss of practical effects—from drool to snot rockets—that CGI spit heralds, Walker’s digital slobber is only one aspect of television that’s been forced to change thanks to COVID.

   12259. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 12, 2021 at 12:12 AM (#6008380)
I assume India is a combination of a very young population combined with significant undercounting.
   12260. Eudoxus Posted: March 12, 2021 at 12:34 AM (#6008384)
This article discusses a number of hypotheses about India. None seems entirely persuasive to me (and many don’t obviously distinguish India from Brazil).
   12261. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 12, 2021 at 05:49 AM (#6008390)
Pandemics often have a substantial stochastic element that can be hard to explain. In the 14th century, Bavaria lost 1/3 of its population to the Black Death. Bohemia, right next door, was practially untouched. We have accounts of French villages with 75% of their population dead while another town a few miles away had no deaths.
   12262. Lassus Posted: March 12, 2021 at 12:41 PM (#6008445)
My wife had her second Moderna shot yesterday. No real side effects beyond a sore arm and some excessive tiredness today, which - to cross-post - may have just as easily been caused by a cat that wouldn't leave anyone alone at 4 AM.

It would be great if India's low totals ends up found out in 100 years to be something having to do with curry.
   12263. Srul Itza Posted: March 12, 2021 at 12:49 PM (#6008447)
India has a young population; a lot more activity takes place outside; obesity is less common. That, combined with undercounting, probably explains most of it.
   12264. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 12, 2021 at 01:34 PM (#6008451)

I believe India has 5.3% of its population in the 65+ age group. That will go a long way to reducing the COVID death rate.

Pakistan and Bangladesh have even lower reported totals than India on a per capita basis, FWIW. I would guess they're all underreporting by varying degrees. Cases might be 10-20x the reported number, deaths 2-3x the reported number (I'm just pulling numbers out of my ### so don't hold me to any of this). 2-3x the reported deaths in India would still be just a 3-5% increase in the mortality rate. It's not like the US where we had a ~20% increase in total deaths last year.
   12265. Srul Itza Posted: March 12, 2021 at 02:04 PM (#6008459)
From my local paper about a vaccinated person testing positive for COVID-19:

A fully-vaccinated Oahu healthcare worker contracted COVID-19 after a recent trip to the mainland but has no symptoms.

The Department of Health said Thursday in a written announcement that it had recently identified the case.

The worker received two doses of an approved COVID-19 vaccine, according to the guidelines, and had completed the series in early January.

The individual traveled to multiple mainland cities about a month later.

Pre-travel testing was performed for the person and a travel companion before returning to Hawaii.

Their positive results were received after they arrived in Hawaii.

Neither of the two developed any symptoms and no transmission to close contacts occurred, the Health Department said.

Laboratory specimens could not be obtained for sequencing, the Health Department said.
   12266. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: March 12, 2021 at 06:21 PM (#6008480)
when Republican voters are told the major elements of the plan, they like it even more. In polls, 55 percent of Republicans favored “sending stimulus checks worth up to $1,400 per person to most families and individuals,” 70 percent said these payments should be $1,400 or higher, and 73 percent favored “providing larger tax credits for families and making them easier for low-income households to claim.” Most Republicans also endorsed “providing nearly $130 billion to K-12 schools to help students return to the classroom.” When Economist/YouGov polls quizzed Republicans who were aware of the package (that’s 92 percent of the party), most supported “additional $300 unemployment benefits,” “expansion of the child tax credit for up to $3,600 per child,” and “extending [the] eviction ban through September.” Two-thirds supported a “$160 billion nationwide vaccine program” and “$1,400 relief checks to every individual making less than $75,000.”
...
most Republicans said they weren’t very worried that the bill would “be wasteful and cause increases in taxes” or “cause inflation.” More than a third of Republicans said they weren’t even “somewhat” worried about these concerns.
...
more than a quarter of Republicans said that “American capitalism” isn’t working well and that “some people who talk about free markets” just want to protect “those at the top at the expense of everyone else.” One in three Republicans said “government regulations are mostly a good thing,” and 41 percent said “government needs to do more to help regular people” rather than stay “out of people’s lives.”


republican populism is not going away anytime soon.
   12267. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 12, 2021 at 07:41 PM (#6008485)
That's good to know, Srul. What I heard today from a student who ticks both the too young to have it serious and no danger in getting together with family makes me yet more likely to be vigilant while awaiting the vaccine.

Pleased to say that in my ventures into my little area of Houston, mask use has not declined.
   12268. Eudoxus Posted: March 12, 2021 at 10:18 PM (#6008498)
Updated changes in US new death rates (some modifications from the previous numbers, given changes in the reported numbers on woldometer):

March 9: 1639 -> 1589; 3.1% decline
March 10: 1589 -> 1489; 6.3% decline
March 11: 1489 -> 1425; 4.3% decline
March 12: 1425 -> 1378; 3.3% decline

From March 8 to March 12, a total of a 16% drop in daily deaths. Daily deaths now at their lowest level since November 18. (Decline in new cases has slowed, but daily new cases now at the lowest level since October 16. I'm hoping, with increased vaccination rates, that deaths are a better figure than cases to track now. Is there a good source for current hospitalization numbers now that covidtracking has stopped collecting numbers?)

The UK continues to look like the best vaccination success story. They've gone from 1244 deaths a day on January 26 to 155 a day today. (Or Gibraltar, which has gone from 1317 active cases on January 8 to 30 today, and has now gone 13 days without a COVID death.)
   12269. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 12, 2021 at 10:48 PM (#6008501)

Eudoxus, I don't think it's just a vaccination story in the UK. They have been under a pretty strict lockdown since Jan. 6. I don't know all the details, but I believe no gyms, restaurants, or pubs have been allowed to open (even for outdoor dining).
   12270. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: March 13, 2021 at 01:54 PM (#6008521)
Yes, by some measures the UK was in the toughest lockdown in Europe up until last Monday, when schools started to re-open. But with around a third of the UK being vaccinated (and those being overwhelmingly in the highest age-group categories), the UK should be in a good position with its current phased re-opening plan. Much of the EU looks to be several months behind, and a few countries like Italy are re-closing shops and restaurants in places as they see cases ticking up again.

There'll be a long post-mortem about this, and it's likely to further sour the already tetchy UK-EU relationship after Brexit. The UK has had much more success getting vaccine supplies after speeding up its approval process, while the EU is arguably at least 60 million doses short from AstraZenica's promised production alone. And this week, the EU claimed that it had allowed 9m shots of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to be exported to the UK. This will confirm many preconceptions on all sides, I suspect.
   12271. Eudoxus Posted: March 13, 2021 at 09:01 PM (#6008543)
More updates on the US death rate:

March 9: 1639 -> 1589; 3.1% decline
March 10: 1589 -> 1489; 6.3% decline
March 11: 1489 -> 1425; 4.3% decline
March 12: 1425 -> 1378; 3.3% decline
March 13 1378 -> 1307; 5.2% decline

Now a 20.3% drop since March 8.
   12272. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 14, 2021 at 06:10 AM (#6008556)
But with around a third of the UK being vaccinated


Only if you count the first dose. Most places (including Spain, where I am) only count those who have had the second dose as being 'vaccinated'.
   12273. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: March 14, 2021 at 11:10 AM (#6008562)
Only if you count the first dose. Most places (including Spain, where I am) only count those who have had the second dose as being 'vaccinated'.


This is a good point, though my understanding is that, so far, the evidence suggests that one dose is still very effective, if not quite as impactful without the second. And with the UK's deaths per capita at nearly the highest in Europe, and a recent peak well over the March/April/May 2020 window, I can see the logic in trying to cover as many people as quickly as possible. Certainly a gamble, but perhaps one that is paying off.
   12274. Eudoxus Posted: March 15, 2021 at 09:12 AM (#6008633)
US death rate change:

March 9: 1639 -> 1589; 3.1% decline
March 10: 1589 -> 1489; 6.3% decline
March 11: 1489 -> 1425; 4.3% decline
March 12: 1425 -> 1378; 3.3% decline
March 13: 1378 -> 1307; 5.2% decline
March 14: 1307-> 1290; 1.3% drop

Sunday and Monday have the lowest reported death rate (weekend reporting effect), which means they'll also tend to have lower decline percentages when things are going in the right direction.

From March 8 to March 14, a 21.3% decline. Projecting at that rate predicts March 21 as the first day that the US ends with a 7-day average of under 1000 deaths a day. April 6 by the same rate the death rate would reach 504, which would be the lowest since April 1 of last year. I think the decline is unlikely to continue at quite that rate, but I'll enjoy the moment of optimism for now.
   12275. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 16, 2021 at 02:02 AM (#6008759)

Vaccination does seem to be having a marginal effect in FL...the average age of new cases a few weeks ago was about 40, pretty much where it’s been for months. Over the past couple of weeks it’s ticked down to 37. I would wait before reading too much into that trend, but it’s a positive indication that fewer people in the older age brackets are getting infected.
   12276. Mayor Blomberg Posted: March 16, 2021 at 03:24 AM (#6008761)
The COVID Tracking Project argues that the CDC's failure to collect and to release COVID test data was a huge obstacle to all modeling efforts and policy creation.

Not until early May, when the CDC published its own deeply inadequate data dashboard, did we realize the depth of its ignorance. And when the White House reproduced one of our charts, it confirmed our fears: The government was using our data. For months, the American government had no idea how many people were sick with COVID-19, how many were lying in hospitals, or how many had died. And the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic, started as a temporary volunteer effort, had become a de facto source of pandemic data for the United States.
   12277. Eudoxus Posted: March 16, 2021 at 10:44 AM (#6008777)
US death rate change:

March 9: 1639 -> 1589; 3.1% decline
March 10: 1589 -> 1489; 6.3% decline
March 11: 1489 -> 1425; 4.3% decline
March 12: 1425 -> 1378; 3.3% decline
March 13: 1378 -> 1307; 5.2% decline
March 14: 1307-> 1290; 1.3% decline
March 15: 1290 -> 1282; 0.6% decline

I'm thinking of this as going backward in time through the pandemic. Right now we're between the November 17 and November 18 death rate. A good day today might move us back as far as November 15.
   12278. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: March 16, 2021 at 11:58 AM (#6008788)
Michigan's cases just keep going up. Per this guy's numbers the 7 day average for cases is back up to 2,223. It had dropped to 1,045 on 2/21 and has gone up since then.

From the fall when cases started going up and got to about this number the number of hospitalized was about 1,100. Now it's about 1,000.

Michigan's going up while all the states around us stay the same or slowly dropping.

As always, I don't know what any of this means. I do find the rise here while no rise yet near us to be strange, though.
   12279. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: March 16, 2021 at 01:43 PM (#6008812)
The good news is that vaccination is going to open to all Michigan residents on April 5.
   12280. Eudoxus Posted: March 16, 2021 at 10:14 PM (#6008896)
March 9: 1639 -> 1589; 3.1% decline
March 10: 1589 -> 1489; 6.3% decline
March 11: 1489 -> 1425; 4.3% decline
March 12: 1425 -> 1378; 3.3% decline
March 13: 1378 -> 1307; 5.2% decline
March 14: 1307-> 1290; 1.3% decline
March 15: 1290 -> 1282; 0.6% decline
March 16: 1282 -> 1228; 4.2% decline

We are now between November 14 and November 15.
   12281. Lassus Posted: March 17, 2021 at 08:45 AM (#6008906)
In lame-ass annoying news, as a middle-management worker bee for a school subcontractor, I work with a decently large number of employees in NY state's B1 designation, who have been able - like me - to get the vaccine since January.

I was asked by the higher-ups to enquire about the percentage of employees who have gotten the vaccine.

From hard responses of concrete numbers to soft data of talking to people, the answer seems to be fifty fucking percent, maybe less. Granted, I live in Stupidland. (Speaking more locally, not nationally or planetarily.)
   12282. JJ1986 Posted: March 17, 2021 at 10:42 AM (#6008921)
I don't know anyone who is refusing the vaccine, but I know more people than I thought who are in no hurry to get it, including those who have had serious health problems and plenty of over-65s.
   12283. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: March 17, 2021 at 11:10 AM (#6008926)
It can be a pain to get. I optimized the timing, thanks to a social media hint that one oddly-located site in the local metro area wasn't getting filled with appointments. I know one person who just signed-up for the nearest location, and that means he needs to wait another month. My mom dragged her a feet a bit, and she made it clear she wasn't going to the mega-sites in her area, even if I drove her, but she did sign-up for a convenient location and actually ended up impressed with the ease of the process.
   12284. bunyon Posted: March 17, 2021 at 11:23 AM (#6008928)
Lassus, that's discouraging to hear. I work at a uni, so moderately intelligent and highly educated folks. It's not 100% here, which blew my mind.

The only rationale that makes any sense is that it's EUA. I'm sympathetic to that. But anyone who hasn't thought this was a commie hoax should know the vaccine is the only way out without everyone getting covid. We can't lock down forever and there is decent evidence that we've gone about as far as we can. And that's even without the USA properly locking down. The public is done, whether continued lock down makes rational sense or not. Thus, vaccine or get sick, that's your choice.

Anyway, I'm having fun booking summer travel. Flights and rooms are cheap.
   12285. Lassus Posted: March 17, 2021 at 11:34 AM (#6008929)
Anyway, I'm having fun booking summer travel. Flights and rooms are cheap.

Last year my wife booked us a cabin in the Adirondacks (like, a three-hour drive or whatever), to avoid the possibility of being able to do nothing at all. I am now having a bit of a 1st-world problem with this, given your above quote.
   12286. catomi01 Posted: March 17, 2021 at 11:58 AM (#6008935)
Where I work "Masks are scary, COVID is overblown, Biden is killing America because he's asleep by 5 PM, and the election was clearly rigged." Despite that, I've only heard one person outright say they don't want it - with the rationale that they're injecting you with the virus...so if I've avoided it this long, why would I get it now...

One other person said they were on the fence, but would get it once he saw the handful of people we have eligible under medical risks if they came through without side effects.
   12287. Lassus Posted: March 17, 2021 at 12:16 PM (#6008941)
but would get it once he saw the handful of people we have eligible under medical risks if they came through without side effects.

Does this person not have the internet? I mean, again, in Trump Country, it's not unusual; but if you're being that specific about requiring readily available information on a far greater number of people? Sounds kinda like an excuse/lie.
   12288. Greg Pope Posted: March 17, 2021 at 12:33 PM (#6008942)
45 came out yesterday and said that everyone should get the vaccine. I have to imagine that has a pretty big impact on the people who are reluctant to get it right now.
   12289. Lassus Posted: March 17, 2021 at 12:42 PM (#6008944)
I was initially thinking that, but now I really wonder.
   12290. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 17, 2021 at 01:16 PM (#6008951)
I think some people aren't necessarily anti-vax but just won't make a significant effort to get it. A lot of people simply aren't that proactive about their health, and at least up to now it hasn't been that easy to get the shot in most places. My aunt isn't anti-vax, but if my mom hadn't made the appointment for her she probably wouldn't have taken the initiative to get it as early as she did.
   12291. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: March 17, 2021 at 02:08 PM (#6008958)
45 came out yesterday and said that everyone should get the vaccine. I have to imagine that has a pretty big impact on the people who are reluctant to get it right now.

Frank Luntz just put together a MAGA focus group two days ago for the Washington Post which said 45's endorsement is meaningless. That surprised Luntz, but the MAGAs did seem reachable by people without obvious political affiliations.
   12292. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: March 17, 2021 at 02:20 PM (#6008959)
Does this person not have the internet?

I think Dave is right in 12290, but I would add that these side effects in theory may not show up for a while. If you think back to a year ago, the professionals in the government (as opposed to the MAGAs) had some pretty awful screw-ups with COVID -- mask effectiveness and testing regimes being the most obvious -- and it took a few months for the putative experts to get their #### together. I can see someone thinking that they would like to wait a bit to make sure the experts don't change their minds again. It probably doesn't help that our media has decided to play up minor controversies and variants, because apparently they have nothing else to report on.
   12293. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 17, 2021 at 02:40 PM (#6008964)
Demand for vaccine still exceeds supply by a considerable margin, although change may be near, perhaps by April or May. There are all kinds of reasons some may be slow to get vaccinated. Perhaps some younger folks don’t think their occupational priority really justifies going ahead of oldsters & those with underlying conditions at higher risk. Some are just procrastinators in general. Others may not see that much value in vaccination while they’re being told they will still have to maintain social distancing measures indefinitely. And those concerned about safety probably had their concerns reinforced by the European countries that suspended use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. My guess is a lot of those folks will get over those concerns by the time vaccine is so plentiful that there is no problem getting a shot at a convenient time & location.
   12294. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: March 17, 2021 at 03:45 PM (#6008973)
Also I'm sure there are plenty of people who aren't paying close attention and don't realize that they're eligible.
   12295. Srul Itza Posted: March 17, 2021 at 08:55 PM (#6009026)
This week, they lowered eligibility in Aloha-land to Age 65 and up. I am now signed up for the first dose of Moderna on Sunday, with the next shot in mid April, through CVS.
   12296. Ron J Posted: March 18, 2021 at 02:25 AM (#6009059)
12295 Ontario's sign up system just launched. It crashed for a lot of people and I found the nearest option for me is around 150KM away -- and despite being 65 and a diabetic I'm still currently only 3rd tier of the next group.

I didn't bother to sign up.
   12297. Lassus Posted: March 18, 2021 at 08:08 AM (#6009061)

Trump Supporters Turn On Him Over COVID-19 Vaccine In Uncomfortable CNN Segment
“Trump is a liberal New Yorker,” one Trump voter declared. “Why would we listen to him either?”

Another diner flat-out said “no” when asked if Trump’s endorsement would get him to take the vaccine.

Other diners rejected both science and government. Tuchman found much the same attitude elsewhere in the community.
Granted, it's the fucking Huffpost, but people are imbeciles irrespective of Trump.
   12298. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: March 18, 2021 at 10:03 AM (#6009067)
Morons and dipshits turning down the vaccine? Not a surprise.

I hope we get 2/3 to 3/4 of the country vaccinated.

And that is only huffpost quoting people in a cnn video.
   12299. Eudoxus Posted: March 18, 2021 at 10:41 AM (#6009072)
March 9: 1639 -> 1589; 3.1% decline
March 10: 1589 -> 1489; 6.3% decline
March 11: 1489 -> 1425; 4.3% decline
March 12: 1425 -> 1378; 3.3% decline
March 13: 1378 -> 1307; 5.2% decline
March 14: 1307-> 1290; 1.3% decline
March 15: 1290 -> 1282; 0.6% decline
March 16: 1282 -> 1228; 4.2% decline
March 17: 1228 -> 1173; 4.5% decline

We are now between November 12 and November 13.
   12300. Howie Menckel Posted: March 18, 2021 at 11:46 AM (#6009080)
Nick Reisman
@NickReisman
·
2m
Cuomo: April 1, sports venues can reopen at 20% capacity outdoors, 10% capacity indoors with testing in place. Admission will be limited to those who have been vaccinated.

..............

PLAY BALL, METS AND YANKEES!
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