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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 13254 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   12501. bunyon Posted: April 06, 2021 at 10:18 AM (#6011947)
Pat Rapper, I was sooooo happy to get a big reaction from Pfizer 2. I felt nothing on Pfizer 1. Intellectually, there is no reason to worry if you get no reaction. Really, you ought to be happy.

But emotionally? Felt good to feel my immune system going crazy.


Howie, I agree on your take about "might" and "maybe" but the general population has no stomach for probability and moderation. If you want to make a mark, you have to be extreme. It's going to kill us but it's hard to be unilaterally disarm.
   12502. Howie Menckel Posted: April 06, 2021 at 10:21 AM (#6011948)
12500 has "lazy" in its screen name - which seems appropriate, given the response.
   12503. Random Transaction Generator Posted: April 06, 2021 at 10:23 AM (#6011949)
the dopey scientists on TV didn't just tell us that it would be "unprecedented" or even "unlikely" - they confidently said that it was "impossible."


I never heard "impossible". In fact, I heard more about the combined efforts of multiple teams working together in an "unprecedented" way that suggested a vaccine could arrive sooner than expected.
Also in play was the new versions of the early vaccines (mRNA) that had never been tried at large scale. Furthermore, we heard back in April 2020 about Bill Gates' foundation that donated billions of dollars to fund multiple vaccine factory setups to speed up the release of the vaccines.

Everything pointed to a viable vaccine being available much sooner than expected.

If you were hearing "impossible", it was from someone using scare tactics to get more views/clicks.
   12504. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 06, 2021 at 10:26 AM (#6011950)
the same thing happened last year in response to claims that a vaccine could be developed and approved in less than 12 months.

Technically, the vaccines haven't been approved.
   12505. Howie Menckel Posted: April 06, 2021 at 10:41 AM (#6011951)
May 14, 2020

By Dareh Gregorian

An ousted top Health and Human Services official testified Thursday before Congress that the Trump administration's timeline for a coronavirus vaccine is likely too optimistic — and that there's "no plan" to mass produce and distribute one.

Hopes for a vaccine to be ready in 12 to 18 months assume that "everything goes perfectly," the official, Dr. Rick Bright, told the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee on health, adding, "We've never seen everything go perfectly. I still think 12-18 months is an aggressive schedule, and I think it’s going to take longer than that to do so.”

“I think it’s possible you could see a vaccine in people’s arms next year — by the middle or end of next year. But this is unprecedented, so it’s hard to predict,” said Dr. Paul Offit, a professor at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania and the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.

NY Times, April 2020

"The potential Covid-19 vaccines now in the pipeline might be more likely to fail because of the swift march through the research phase," said Robert van Exan, a cell biologist who has worked in the vaccine industry for decades. He predicts we won’t see a vaccine approved until at least 2021 or 2022, and even then, “this is very optimistic and of relatively low probability.”


"Scientist says a coronavirus vaccine in just 12 months is 'fake news' | 60 Minutes Australia"
April 2020

............

March 4, 2021

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Daily deaths in Texas from the COVID-19 virus would increase by 50% without a mask mandate, according to data models from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
   12506. Nasty Nate Posted: April 06, 2021 at 10:43 AM (#6011952)
None of those things are scientists saying it was "impossible" (your quotes), never mind saying it confidently.
   12507. Hot Wheeling American Posted: April 06, 2021 at 10:45 AM (#6011953)
“I think it’s possible you could see a vaccine in people’s arms next year — by the middle or end of next year. But this is unprecedented, so it’s hard to predict,” said Dr. Paul Offit, a professor at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania and the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.

Wow, you sure nailed this clown, Howie.
   12508. Howie Menckel Posted: April 06, 2021 at 10:47 AM (#6011954)
None of those things are scientists saying it was "impossible" (your quotes), never mind saying it confidently.

that's a pretty strained interpretation, don't you think?

the determined resistance in the replies is interesting, though, in the wake of what actually has happened - or not happened.
   12509. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 06, 2021 at 11:00 AM (#6011955)
Well, I don’t think I’ve ever given pronouncements that anyplace was definitely going to have a big increase in deaths, except for places that were already experiencing a big increase in cases. I’ve always found it very difficult to predict where the next wave of cases was going to hit, and the extent of restrictions — short of very strict lockdowns and travel restrictions — has not been a very reliable predictor.

In the end, I think the doomsayers have been more right than the Richard Epsteins and Hoover Institute folks of the world, who predicted only 500 or even 50,000 deaths in the US (and that was assuming we kept everything open!). I’ve been more vocal in my criticism of the latter group because I think they had the potential to, and actually did, cause far more damage than the doomsayers.

I do think that masks are helpful for short-term potential exposures like going to the supermarket or the mall. I don’t know how much protection they provide if you’re going to be sitting indoors with a bunch of people for several hours. They’re obviously not foolproof — most people aren’t wearing N95 masks, and even those who are, don’t have their eyes covered (I think that’s one reason why masks are more to protect other people from you, rather than the other way around. You don’t transmit the disease through your eyes, but you can catch it via your eyes). So mask mandates help on the margins, and the margins do have an impact (an R0 of 1.1 vs 0.9 makes a huge difference, but it does take some time to see it).

I agree that there probably won’t be another big wave of deaths in the US unless there is a variant that the vaccines don’t protect against*. As a nation, we have vaccinated the majority of people who are at the greatest risk of death. As the FL statistics I posted recently show, the average age of new cases is coming down pretty steadily now, and the CFRs for the younger, unvaccinated age groups are relatively low.

In terms of variants, I’m more worried about the ongoing rise in cases in India than I am about Texas or any state in the US. If this thing spreads unfettered in a country with 1.3 billion people, that just seems like a recipe for the creation of more variants.
   12510. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 06, 2021 at 11:39 AM (#6011962)
Agree that a death wave is unlikely at this point. Things are looking very good.
   12511. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 06, 2021 at 12:33 PM (#6011978)
12494. Howie Menckel Posted: April 06, 2021 at 09:22 AM (#6011933)
I know I read that Texas' early end to the lockdown/mask mandate a month ago would lead to massive increases in their death rate. can we get an update on that?


Troll on, Big River
   12512. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 06, 2021 at 12:36 PM (#6011981)
I know I read that Texas' early end to the lockdown/mask mandate a month ago would lead to massive increases in their death rate. can we get an update on that?
Texas seems to be in pretty good shape, contrary to much of the ‘noise’ in this thread, with only the 41st most confirmed cases per capita among the states & D.C. over the last week.
   12513. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 06, 2021 at 12:42 PM (#6011985)
None of those things are scientists saying it was "impossible" (your quotes), never mind saying it confidently.

but the concern troll is very concerned.
   12514. Eudoxus Posted: April 06, 2021 at 01:57 PM (#6012023)
April 5: 833 -> 808; 3% decline

Looking promising for getting under 800/day this week. Then maybe next week we get below the post-summer-2020-surge low of 722/day. One year ago the US was at 1344 deaths/day (mostly in the NY area), and we were in the midst of an initial upward surge with no clear idea of where it would top off. In fact it would peak about two weeks later at 2250/day, but at the time it looked like the upward slope could go another 10 days beyond that and reach 5000/day, or yet another 10 days beyond that and reach 10,000/day.

India's per capita rates are still quite low. Right now they're at about 84000/day, which is equivalent to about 21,000/day for the US population. But I agree that the raw number is concerning just as an opportunity for variant production, even if the per capita rates don't get excessive. Eyeballing the curve, I'd kind of expect India to top out around 200,000 cases per day. That's still below what the US was doing in mid-January, and I guess the evidence is that the US winter surge didn't create any new variants, so maybe the risk isn't terribly high.
   12515. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 06, 2021 at 02:45 PM (#6012039)
Here is a good twitter thread on what herd immunity actually is, and means.
   12516. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 06, 2021 at 03:38 PM (#6012052)
12515 that’s a good thread, although I think it is a better description of herd immunity via infection rather than via vaccination. I think the general point still stands, but hopefully we will continue to vaccinate more people (rather than infect them) past the herd immunity threshold and reduce a lot of the overshoot he is talking about.
   12517. Ron J Posted: April 06, 2021 at 05:23 PM (#6012079)
Yup Howie has gone full "read what I want" and "lie about what is being said". Rather than the vague innuendo that is his typical MO.
   12518. Tony S Posted: April 06, 2021 at 05:43 PM (#6012083)
Me, I'm glad to see Texas is doing well. I'm glad to see anyone doing well. I want this damn thing to end.
   12519. Howie Menckel Posted: April 06, 2021 at 05:52 PM (#6012086)
Rather than the vague innuendo that is his typical MO.

speaking of "vague"...

yes, if an expert says, "Hopes for a vaccine to be ready in 12 to 18 months assume that "everything goes perfectly," the official, Dr. Rick Bright, told the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee on health, adding, "We've never seen everything go perfectly. I still think 12-18 months is an aggressive schedule, and I think it’s going to take longer than that to do so.”

........... they absolutely are NOT saying that a vaccine in 6 months is impossible.
wait, if 12 to 18 months is the "perfect" scenario then 6 months is.... what would be your word?

and how much more specific should I get than:

March 4, 2021

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Daily deaths in Texas from the COVID-19 virus would increase by 50% without a mask mandate, according to data models from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

......................

there are plenty of other examples, but you'll have to work out some sort of a payment schedule for that if you want me to put in more time to demonstrate something so obvious.

we all know that
a) there have been countless breathless predictions of doom over the past year claimed on this board and all over, many or most of which should have left egg on the faces of the claimants. but that's so old-school these days.

b) it was similarly a certainty that vaccine distribution could not take place as soon as it has.

where is the "lie" here? I mean, talk about a heavy-duty case of "read what you want."
poster, heal thyself.
   12520. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: April 06, 2021 at 07:05 PM (#6012099)
where is the "lie" here? I mean, talk about a heavy-duty case of "read what you want." poster, heal thyself.
Good advice. You should follow it.
   12521. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 06, 2021 at 07:22 PM (#6012106)
fun fact: slate hired a writer who's not a lazily hackish concern troll:

We weren’t supposed to have a vaccine by now. Less than a year ago, I wrote a story with the headline, “It Will Probably Take Longer Than 12 to 18 Months to Get a Vaccine.” This wasn’t an off-the-cuff take, or a hunch—it was based on interviews with experts and a whole lot of reading. I was trying to provide a measured guide to how experts were thinking about the timeline for inoculations, beyond predictions that kept giving us whiplash (and, I worried, false hope). Those predictions were splashy: In March of 2020, Anthony Fauci was saying that it would “take at least a year to a year in a half to have a vaccine we can use”; soon after, he went on the Today show estimating that January of the following year would be “doable if things fall in the right place.” Headlines repeating the optimism abounded.

No one I spoke to for my Debbie Downer story disputed that this timeline was possible; they just emphasized that it would shatter records if it happened. Vaccines historically have taken at least a few years to develop, so a January timeline involved banking on a kind of shot that had never before made it to market (the mRNA vaccine). An analyst at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security told me it was important to pay attention to the caveat in Fauci’s optimistic timeline: “Things rarely go perfectly.”
   12522. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: April 06, 2021 at 07:39 PM (#6012110)
The main takeaway from the vaccine process is that mRNA works and it is spectacular.
   12523. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 06, 2021 at 07:50 PM (#6012118)
oh, and a bonus fun fact:

the IHME has a long (and undistinguished) history in this thread:
4651. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2020 at 08:31 AM (#5937519)
IHME is now predicting 60,000 US deaths, and no day more than 2212. That's basically a prediction that only 2% or so of the country will ever become infected.

edit: Also that NY has hit its peak deaths already, yesterday, and that we are essentially in the clear in 3 weeks (deaths become a rounding error). This... should get interesting.
4746. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 08, 2020 at 11:35 PM (#5937755)
Tuscany now had 392 of a projected 343 deaths. They're already overperforming.

It's a small number of total cases, but it's one of the regions that IHME was saying it used for building their models.
468. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 03, 2020 at 01:11 AM (#5947033)
IHME model removed from the CDC website (presumably, for being total crap).

On the last update (April 29), they projected 0 more deaths ever for Veneto, (95% confidence interval 0-5 deaths) the day after Veneto just had 68.




the IHME: not very good at the data science thing
   12524. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 06, 2021 at 07:53 PM (#6012120)

Of course, J&J is not an mRNA vaccine and that was also developed successfully.

Anyway, if the past year-and-change has taught me anything, it's that you can find someone on the Internet spewing pretty much whatever terrible take you want with little difficulty. Having been an active participant in this thread for most of the past year, I think the view of a lot of us was that a vaccine by mid-2021 was a real enough possibility that it was worth giving it a shot and dealing with the negative effects of social distancing, etc. because those things were likely to be temporary. I can't speak for anyone else but I might have had a different view of the appropriate policy if a vaccine wasn't a realistic possibility in 2021.

   12525. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 06, 2021 at 07:54 PM (#6012121)
HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Daily deaths in Texas from the COVID-19 virus would increase by 50% without a mask mandate, according to data models from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Howie, if you expect the folks in this thread to be big believers in the IHME forecasts, you might want to go back and re-read some of the early entries.

EDIT: Coke to stiggles
   12526. Howie Menckel Posted: April 06, 2021 at 08:21 PM (#6012129)
fair enough, but I saw plenty of "they're all gonna die in [Texas/Georgia/Florida]" and "we'll be lucky to have a vaccine in 18 months - forget about six" scientists on cable TV to last me a lifetime. and plenty of confident assertions to that effect here as well. not "hard to picture" but "no chance" (some posters here struggle to understand what 'impossible' means) and not "it's too risky" but "we know what will happen, for sure."

an ex-AP bureau chief on April 20, 2020: "Mark this day. Because two or three weeks from now, the Georgia death toll's blood is on [the R Governor's] hands."

Washington Post columnist Dana Milbank on April 21, 2020: "Georgia Leads The Race To Become America's No. 1 Death Destination."

The Atlantic on April 29, 2020: "Georgia's Experiment in Human Sacrifice."

I don't know if you guys don't read much, or just erase from your memories or something.

..............

"Good advice. You should follow it."

a combination of non-responsive and nonsensical. well done.

I'm not "rooting" for anything, which is what "read what you want" people do. I don't even visit any political websites, period (unless this one counts).

it's just that when people make bold predictions, and they prove to be wrong - over and over and over - it gets a bit tiresome, frankly. especially when they get a pass just because they are wearing the proper laundry.

I said here at the time that I thought what Texas and Florida and Georgia did struck me as risky. But I wasn't so "in the tank" as to turn that into "they're all gonna die," as became the wildly popular meme (hardly just from that one scientific group above, either).

it does frustrate me that a bunch of smart people who accurately recognize the way tens of millions of people get bamboozled so easily seem to believe that it never, ever happens to them. good luck looking for a comment here about a politician, a scientist, or even a pundit being spectacularly wrong, repeatedly, on issues like this from the "proper side." all about the laundry.

even worse is the intellectually lazy "whataboutism" or "bothsidesism" word salad tossed around here like - well, salad.

it's like a beacon shining on the reader's screen: "I'M TOO LAZY TO ADDRESS AN ISSUE, SO I'LL JUST PRETEND THAT THE WORLD IS BINARY. ANY CRITICISM OF MY TEAM MEANS THE CRTIC IS SAYING BOTH SIDES ARE EQUALLY AT FAULT..."

I hope nobody here seriously disputes my two main points (although...). but they don't like the messenger, so they focus on that instead. and the idea of having one's set of beliefs challenged, even a little bit, seems to strike raw nerves these days. it's a sad state of affairs.

   12527. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 06, 2021 at 08:23 PM (#6012130)
intellectually lazy "whataboutism" or "bothsidesism" word salad

the density of your head has to be off the charts to be able to write those words without irony
   12528. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 06, 2021 at 08:42 PM (#6012133)
My employer, a national nonprofit, has cancelled the planned in-person component of what was to be a hybrid -- that is, part online, part on-site -- national conference in August in Washington state. Last year's event was strictly virtual as well after the physical event was scuttled.

   12529. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 06, 2021 at 08:43 PM (#6012134)
[12526] just gave me a flashback to joe sheehan's rant about fangraphs/tangotiger.
How about this?

I've done sports content as a business for 15 years. By any standard I'm one of a small number of people to do it successfully outside the mainstream, I've played most of the roles one can play and holy god I'm sick of listening to you act as if you've had 1% of the success the people you criticize have had. How about you grant that I might know what I'm talking about, given that sports content has been my career, without me having to make a business case to someone with no standing to ask for one?

Primer/BTF/Newsstand/Brand of the Day isn't a business in any real sense of the word, it's r.s.b ported to the Web and stripped of its spark. That you would make these comparisons shows just how little you understand of Prospectus, how little you've ever understood.

Stick to being an academic, Thomas. Stick to your sycophant-laden fora and your above-it-all mien. Stop jumping in here and cheap-shotting a business that you’ve never comprehended on your best day.



thread


54. Harry Balsagne Posted: July 08, 2010 at 08:55 PM (#3582392)
I need to know who to blame for stripping our spark.

Three words: NBA Playoffs Thread.
74. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: July 08, 2010 at 09:49 PM (#3582486)
The basketball and soccer threads don't have people threatening each or flame wars about rape.
And such is their loss.
   12530. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 06, 2021 at 08:44 PM (#6012135)
"they're all gonna die in [Texas/Georgia/Florida]"


We should be so lucky. (Note: My native Arkansas & current home, Alabama, very much belong here as well.)
   12531. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: April 06, 2021 at 09:07 PM (#6012143)
Of course, J&J is not an mRNA vaccine and that was also developed successfully.
J&J is an unqualified success and will be a big part of the global vaccination strategy. However, it hasn’t had much impact in the US so far. It seems like they will be producing at volume more towards the fall. That fits in pretty well with the original 18 month timeline. The current vaccine success in the US is almost entirely due to the mRNA vaccines.
   12532. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 06, 2021 at 09:12 PM (#6012144)
157. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 09, 2010 at 02:23 AM (#3582966)
Lisa:

I live in Wisconsin. If I was 'anti-fat' I would not have any friends. (cue snide comments from the masses)

Of course I find my wife beautiful. She relishes telling a moment from a LOOONNNGGGG time ago when she wasn't wearing her glasses (the black horn-rims that looked ten times bigger than they actually were) and had her hair down versus it pulled back like I saw it all the time at school and a dash of makeup which she couldn't afford to wear all the time and upon being startled by all that she had the opportunity to reach over and lift my chin up to close my mouth while commenting that she didn't want me to catch any flies.

She enjoys telling that story very much.

237. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 09, 2010 at 03:06 PM (#3583364)
Can you pee standing up?

(That wouldn't necessarily settle the question - I'm just curious.)
   12533. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 06, 2021 at 10:08 PM (#6012161)
Well, I don’t feel any need to defend things that I didn’t write. Yes some folks have been too definitive in their pronouncements that action X will lead to outcome Y. The spread of the virus is difficult to predict.

But, well, TX/FL/GA have combined for over 100,000 COVID deaths despite largely avoiding the deadly first wave, so while it didn’t happen exactly as some of the doomsayers said it would, I would still contend they were more “right” than the people advocating for no restrictions. That a lot of other places failed just as badly isn’t a great defense of TX/FL/GA leadership, although it is worth acknowledging.
   12534. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: April 06, 2021 at 10:28 PM (#6012169)
it's just that when people make bold predictions, and they prove to be wrong - over and over and over - it gets a bit tiresome, frankly. especially when they get a pass just because they are wearing the proper laundry.
If you actually looked at the sources provided by your own links, you'd see how reasonable the headlines make total sense when given context. For example,
"HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Daily deaths in Texas from the COVID-19 virus would increase by 50% without a mask mandate, according to data models from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation."
The 50% increase was in the context of a comparison that assumed a universal mask mandate that projected a 9% drop in deaths. The 50% number comes from the rate of change, not overall deaths or death rates. The headline is misleading, and you'd have have actually read the sources to know that.

It was the "bold predictions" thing that really bothered me, though. A bunch of researchers and scientists wouldn't go out on a limb, but politicians would — and you think the scientists were being bold? If the pols actually thought that we'd have a vaccine by the end of last year, they'd have had some sort of production and distribution plan in place beyond "let the 50 states deal with it on their own." The idea that you'd go after researchers who were being cautious in their statements is just reprehensible. But sure, side with the same politicians who predicted that this whole thing would just "go away." That's bold.
   12535. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 07, 2021 at 12:00 AM (#6012182)
perhaps his point is that there's no reason getting worked up over 570,000 deaths of Americans he doesn't know?
   12536. Howie Menckel Posted: April 07, 2021 at 10:04 AM (#6012197)
But sure, side with the same politicians who predicted that this whole thing would just "go away."


I don't even know where to go with this complete lack of comprehension.

The determined effort to trample any voices that don't hew to the party line - it just strikes me as weird.

and it leads to bizarre, utterly non-responsive non sequiturs like this:

"perhaps his point is that there's no reason getting worked up over 570,000 deaths of Americans he doesn't know?"

but no one will call it out as such - again, as long as you wear the right laundry, anything goes.

[shrug emoji]
   12537. Eudoxus Posted: April 07, 2021 at 10:46 AM (#6012205)
April 6: 808 -> 820; 1.5% increase

Yesterday was the sixth day in a row with a death total under 1000; the first time that's happened since late October. If we stay under 1000 today (Wednesday is usually the highest reported death total for the week), the running average will drop under 800.
   12538. Ron J Posted: April 07, 2021 at 12:39 PM (#6012222)
So the bad news is that Ontario is starting a 4 week "stay at home dammit!" tomorrow.

The good news is that in that time frame I'll have to break out to get my first shot. Apr 25.

Somebody here will post bail if I get arrested trying to go to my vaccination appointment, right.
   12539. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: April 07, 2021 at 02:43 PM (#6012237)
The determined effort to trample any voices that don't hew to the party line - it just strikes me as weird.
Well, I guess I'm just totally out of both-sides hugginess ever since I lost two family members, my college debate coach at just 58, and my work mentor at just 63. My health care admin wife has lost a dozen docs and nurses from her national roster, and I get to listen on their conference calls as they go through fatality lists three times a week.

You can call it party lines or intolerance or whatever, but the richest, most mature economy in world history shouldn't have the death toll we have. One of the doctors on my wife's team said last year that this wasn't about health care, this was a war against people pushing for faster openings and fewer masks, and the docs can't win because those people don't care about body counts. They say they do, they do not.
   12540. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 07, 2021 at 03:23 PM (#6012242)
Yes, it's almost like words have meanings and ideas (both good and bad) have consequences.
   12541. Biscuit_pants Posted: April 07, 2021 at 04:40 PM (#6012267)
There has been a ton of laundry rooting on both sides and I am quite tired of it. I do not pretend that I don't know where this started, at least for Covid. Trump made the virus political when it was unnecessary and doubled, tripled, quadrupled down on it at every chance. We are the only country where fighting the virus is political. In other countries where this is an issue it is financial more than political (though there is overlap). While I see bad science on both extremes it also is penetrating the not so far right more so than the not so far left and it has a lot of people at odds.

   12542. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 07, 2021 at 05:05 PM (#6012280)
Most here inclined to ‘blame the politicians’ for the Covid response limit their criticism to those politicians they already opposed on other grounds. From reading this thread, one would think that Texas & Florida are among the worst states for Covid, which is hardly the case. Michigan, with a much smaller population, has more current cases than either Florida or Texas, and New York & New Jersey, also with smaller populations, are still the worst performing states over the entire pandemic. They also seeded many of the outbreaks elsewhere. Despite this, much of the media portrayed Andrew Cuomo as some sort of hero. Given how much of public health policy is the responsibility of state & local government, and how some of those jurisdictions performed, it’s quite remarkable how far some have been willing to go to give ‘their team’ a pass. For merely noting this, Howie received a vitriolic response from the usual suspects. Sad.
   12543. Howie Menckel Posted: April 07, 2021 at 05:08 PM (#6012282)
I lost two family members, my college debate coach at just 58, and my work mentor at just 63. My health care admin wife has lost a dozen docs and nurses from her national roster, and I get to listen on their conference calls as they go through fatality lists three times a week.

I am truly sorry for your losses. my niece is an ER nurse, and she lost eight patients on the same morning - Christmas morning. I lost a couple of extended family members, and a friend of 35 years who was 58 years old as well.
and all of that is not at all the same as what you have lost - very, very obviously.

that being said, I am not the enemy. Now, I realize that whatever posters who used to be around to be "polar opposites" for the BBTF room are pretty much gone.

ultimately, I guess that's what it all comes down to. many people have justifiably been extremely frustrated by what almost half the country is doing, and it's perfectly natural to look for targets.

and if ideal ones aren't there, well, then others will just have to do.

not a role I sought. but no matter what, it was going to be somebody.
   12544. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 07, 2021 at 06:00 PM (#6012295)
1931. Howie Menckel Posted: March 20, 2020 at 05:54 PM (#5932337)
NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio just did a press conference, and his sign language guy is mesmerizing (as Bloomberg's once was, for different reasons).

this guy must be doing some sort of 'hip' sign language. very expressive and entertaining. did I not pay attention to what the mayor said because of it? guilty as charged.

but Cuomo the Governor is the adult in the room these days anyway. he was on with Hannity a little earlier on radio - message being, "let's not sweat the political stuff right now. here's what we need to do."

as far as Italy goes, if they choose as a culture that they'd rather die than miss out on a communal pasta and wine - it's their funeral.
   12545. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 07, 2021 at 06:13 PM (#6012296)
That ... aged very, very poorly.

Cuomo, of course, had vast swaths of people hoodwinked. Probably including himself, assuming that's possible.
   12546. Tony S Posted: April 07, 2021 at 06:18 PM (#6012299)
We are the only country where fighting the virus is political.


The US is bad enough, but Brazil is probably worse in that regard. And they're still stuck with the same leadership that got them there.
   12547. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 07, 2021 at 06:42 PM (#6012302)
6924. Howie Menckel Posted: April 24, 2020 at 06:45 PM (#5944071)
just heard Rudy Giuliani on right-wing talk radio in NYC getting a little emotional as he railed against the restrictions re COVID-19.

"Folks, LIFE is a gamble!" and so on. "We need to get back to business."

Giuliani, I'd wager, is still a lot more popular with middle-class and lower-income New Yorkers than current Mayor Bill de Blasio is.

I mention Giuliani's rant just to underscore the point I have been making for maybe 10 days now: There's one parallel BBTF track of "here's long we really should wait - and why." and that's fine.

but the idea that any state will "shelter in place" for another 3 to 6 months - or longer - is something only someone living in a bubble would say. I don't expect this level of restrictions to last for even 1 more full month. (the point above about schools is valid, but their closures doesn't prevent partial reopenings of businesses. it just limits the scope a bit, which is just as well.)

and look, I'm not going out without a mask in NJ even if the Governor suddenly says I can. am not going to a restaurant or a bar - hell, I haven't been to a supermarket in 5 weeks or so.

I'm not leading Giuliani's 'parade' - I'm not even in it. I won't even watch it.

but there's a growing rumble all over among people in severe economic distress, and if they have to enter into full and widespread rebellion at some point - they will. (and plenty of them will be Democrats, btw.)

NY Gov. Cuomo recently reopened the state's golf courses, with some limitations. now, that's not something that the group I'm talking about would be likely to want to do - but it's a symbol to them that "hey, we'll ease up a little soon. you'll see," same with marinas reopening in NY, NC, and CT.

even those Govs are finding the need to try to buy a little time. then just imagine the rest of the country.

it's pretty alarming, from an odds point of view. but the "experiment" is coming, ready or not.
   12548. JJ1986 Posted: April 07, 2021 at 07:02 PM (#6012305)
Specific points aside, it's not the best to be painting one's self as the only one willing to speak the truth and everyone else here as a biased #######.
   12549. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 07, 2021 at 07:17 PM (#6012308)
as long as i'm browsing through these things, i figure, why not do a covid thread post of the day:
4503. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 07, 2020 at 09:22 AM (#5937209)
I don't see how you can have a model that doesn't account for emerging herd immunity.
the IHME model doesn't. It effectively assumes the disease will be stamped out totally.

The only way mortality rate is going to make a big difference is if we get to a point where herd immunity starts becoming a factor. None of these models that predict 100,000 to 200,000 deaths come anywhere close to that point.

While mortality rate could be lower than expected, it can't be that much lower. We've already had close to 0.5% of the entire population of Bergamo die, so it's hard to get a mortality rate of less than 0.5% or so. If that holds, and you need 70% of the population for herd immunity, yo are talking at least 1 million dead in the US. The models we have so far all assume we stamp out the virus well before herd immunity becomes a factor.

Stamping out the disease could happen--but if it does the "denominator problem" is essentially irrelevant.
...and #2:
4508. bunyon Posted: April 07, 2020 at 09:45 AM (#5937219)
I do the same. I have to do that treatment about every 2 months.
Yeah, over time, I've learned to be very proactive about this. A couple of weeks ago I thought I was having a stroke. Nope, just golf ball sized ear wax in the left ear.
...and #3:
4513. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 07, 2020 at 10:30 AM (#5937234)
Thanks to all the suggestions. I have some peroxide, so I'm trying that. I'll also get the pharmacy kit and see if that helps.
Be warned about the pharmacy kit!

I tried one of those kits, and I don't know exactly what happened, but it was like the drops bonded with the existing wax buildup and essentially formed a manhole cover in my eardrum, so I couldn't hear at all. I freaked out and went to an urgent care place, and it took them more than an hour's worth of flushing with their special solution before they were finally able to extract the blockage with their instrument. I caveat this with the fact that I had some *serious* wax buildup over the course of probably decades - what they pulled out was about the size of my pinkie.
   12550. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 07, 2021 at 07:32 PM (#6012311)
Specific points aside, it's not the best to be painting one's self as the only one willing to speak the truth and everyone else here as a biased #######.


Has anyone ever seen Howie & Ray DP in the same room at the same time?
   12551. Howie Menckel Posted: April 07, 2021 at 07:40 PM (#6012312)
if someone is unhappy with my posts, why not just block me instead of stalking me?

seems like it's time for me to just let you guys to find a new target - don't worry, I know you will, and rather quickly.
   12552. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: April 07, 2021 at 07:49 PM (#6012313)
Given how much of public health policy is the responsibility of state & local government, and how some of those jurisdictions performed, it’s quite remarkable how far some have been willing to go to give ‘their team’ a pass.
Yeah, find a mirror.

People keep trying to paint this as a state issue, as if the virus cares about state borders. The United States is, like, 5% of the world's population, yet somehow we're nearly 24% of all the world's covid cases and nearly 20% of all the world's covid deaths. Collectively, America's response to covid has been objectively pathetic. Blame whoever you want for that.
   12553. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 07, 2021 at 08:27 PM (#6012317)
The United States is, like, 5% of the world's population, yet somehow we're nearly 24% of all the world's covid cases and nearly 20% of all the world's covid deaths.

That is freedom right there.
   12554. Srul Itza Posted: April 07, 2021 at 08:41 PM (#6012320)
Cuomo, of course, had vast swaths of people hoodwinked. Probably including himself, assuming that's possible.


On "Blue Bloods", the actor playing the fictional Governor of New York does him as a rigid, mean-spirited, prick.

Not being involved in New York politics is any way since moving WAY out west, I did not realize that he was actually doing a spot-on Cuomo characterization, until all the recent revelations about what a rigid, mean-spirited, prick he actually is.
   12555. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 07, 2021 at 08:55 PM (#6012321)
if someone is unhappy with my posts, why not just block me instead of stalking me?

seems like it's time for me to just let you guys to find a new target - don't worry, I know you will, and rather quickly.


The ability to type while wringing one's hands has always impressed the heck out of me. Maybe it's a voice-activation thing instead?
   12556. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 07, 2021 at 09:27 PM (#6012326)
if someone is unhappy with my posts, why not just block me instead of stalking me?

Because freedumb is the right to say any crap I want without being challenged. It'
Or some such nonsense.s my truth.
   12557. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 07, 2021 at 09:53 PM (#6012330)
People keep trying to paint this as a state issue, as if the virus cares about state borders. The United States is, like, 5% of the world's population, yet somehow we're nearly 24% of all the world's covid cases and nearly 20% of all the world's covid deaths. Collectively, America's response to covid has been objectively pathetic. Blame whoever you want for that.

I agree with this for the most part, but:

1. The biggest federal government ####-up involved the testing kits that took forever to get out. That was a technocratic problem apparently, which had nothing to do with the clown occupying the White House at the time.
2. DeSantis has taken a lot of abuse, even though his state's numbers are doing OK. Of course, I suspect the economists will find a comfortable climate is a huge benefit in fighting COVID, since it seems to be transmitted almost entirely in closed spaces.
3. We really do have a public health framework that isn't at all built to handle a pandemic. As an example, the little city of 100,000 down the street from me started its own public health department last year because the small town mayor didn't think the county was aggressive enough. Governor Barbi Benton can host a national super-spreader event so she can become a Fox News celebrity, even if it might actuarially kill more people than 9/11 (most of them outside her state), and there's not a whole lot the federal government can do about it.

That all said, Cuomo and de Blasio have been crucified in some left circles for policy responses, even if Cuomo's press conferences were well received as a welcome contrast to the clown show in DC.
   12558. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 08, 2021 at 04:57 AM (#6012343)
if someone is unhappy with my posts, why not just block me instead of stalking me?


I seldom reply to your posts on this topic, but when I have, it's because - in the middle of a deadly pandemic - misunderstandings and misleading interpretations of what's going on can literally be deadly.

This isn't 'does WAR undervalue or overvalue DHs?', you know.
   12559. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 08, 2021 at 05:37 AM (#6012344)
We really do have a public health framework that isn't at all built to handle a pandemic.


There was a WHO pandemic 'wargame' held in late 2019, in which the US did by far the best of any country, because it was widely acknowledged we had a public health framework that is best in the world at handling a pandemic.
   12560. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2021 at 10:36 AM (#6012362)
Mexico excess deaths were estimated to be 2.25x (or so) higher than actual, through mid-February, so maybe 0.30% to 0.35% excess deaths by now. Mexico is also a lot younger than the US, so age-adjusted (to the US age curve) Mexico has probably had 0.70% to 0.75% of the entire population die so far. There still seems to be quite a tail left as well.

Unlike Florida, which appears to have done better than average, Texas has NOT done well with the virus. (It is good that they are doing much better now of course). It's pointless to look at states without adjusting for 1) excess deaths, and 2) age. Doing both, Texas is probably over 0.28% of the population dead, and maybe over 0.30% by now. That's one of the highest in the country, and 1.5x the national average.
   12561. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 08, 2021 at 10:46 AM (#6012363)
Georgia is also well above the national average (age adjusted and excess death adjusted), at probably upwards of 0.26%. Like Texas, they are another young state with a lot of excess deaths relative to their reported deaths.
   12562. bunyon Posted: April 08, 2021 at 11:36 AM (#6012366)
There was a WHO pandemic 'wargame' held in late 2019, in which the US did by far the best of any country, because it was widely acknowledged we had a public health framework that is best in the world at handling a pandemic.

It isn't quite that simple.

We have great technology, wealth and knowledge. We don't have a unified public health network nor do we have great policymakers in place.

It's a long read but worth it.
   12563. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 08, 2021 at 12:16 PM (#6012368)
There was a WHO pandemic 'wargame' held in late 2019, in which the US did by far the best of any country, because it was widely acknowledged we had a public health framework that is best in the world at handling a pandemic.

That says something unkind about the WHO.
   12564. Eudoxus Posted: April 08, 2021 at 12:29 PM (#6012370)
April 7: 820 -> 771; 6% decline

The US death rate is now where it was between October 19 and October 20 of last year. That was very early in the start of the winter surge, so it won't take too much more dropping before we go below the low point of last fall.

A year ago today there were 953 deaths in New York alone. The NY deaths peaked the day after that at 1028, which I'm pretty sure remains the single worst day for any one state.
   12565. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 08, 2021 at 12:31 PM (#6012372)
That says something unkind about the WHO.

did the WHO fail to account for a certain president suggesting on live TV that people could inject bleach into their veins to protect themselves?
   12566. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 08, 2021 at 12:36 PM (#6012374)
Among other things, yes.
   12567. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 08, 2021 at 12:38 PM (#6012375)
If you didn't click the link, the headline is:

Two decades of pandemic war games failed to account for Donald Trump
   12568. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 08, 2021 at 12:48 PM (#6012378)

Two decades of pandemic war games failed to account for Donald Trump


Cue handwringing, wailing, gnashing of teeth by (with apologies to Mad) the usual gang of idiots.
   12569. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 08, 2021 at 01:27 PM (#6012383)
If you didn't click the link, the headline is:

Two decades of pandemic war games failed to account for Donald Trump
3.5 decades of posting on primer have conditioned me to never rtfa.
   12570. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 08, 2021 at 01:59 PM (#6012387)
4513. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 07, 2020 at 10:30 AM (#5937234)
Thanks to all the suggestions. I have some peroxide, so I'm trying that. I'll also get the pharmacy kit and see if that helps.
Be warned about the pharmacy kit!

I tried one of those kits, and I don't know exactly what happened, but it was like the drops bonded with the existing wax buildup and essentially formed a manhole cover in my eardrum, so I couldn't hear at all. I freaked out and went to an urgent care place, and it took them more than an hour's worth of flushing with their special solution before they were finally able to extract the blockage with their instrument. I caveat this with the fact that I had some *serious* wax buildup over the course of probably decades - what they pulled out was about the size of my pinkie.
Not quite sure why a massive buildup of ear wax gives me post of the day honors, but hey, I'll take it.

I actually need to get the other one cleaned out, but an urgent care place doesn't really seem like a great place to be during a pandemic. It's on the to-do list for after vax #2 though.
   12571. Tony S Posted: April 08, 2021 at 02:55 PM (#6012400)
I actually need to get the other one cleaned out, but an urgent care place doesn't really seem like a great place to be during a pandemic. It's on the to-do list for after vax #2 though.


I had to get mine cleaned out back in February, before my vaxes. (Well, it was either that or be deaf.) I had the same misgivings, but the urgent-care place I went to was VERY meticulous about Covid safety. Only one person at a time in the waiting room (everybody else had to wait in their cars), strict mask use enforcement, and by that time the staff had been fully vaccinated. Your risk is probably low at this time, but if you can hold out till the second vax you might as well. Heck, I just made my first barber-shop visit in 14 months. Barber didn't recognize me at first. :)
   12572. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 08, 2021 at 03:56 PM (#6012406)

I could probably write thousands of words about the US and various state policy responses to the pandemic. It is a complex topic that I am sure will be studied for decades.

I think it is good to have some humility around predictions in either direction, as the pandemic has shown it is difficult to predict the course of this disease. If that was the point of Howie's posts on the last page, then I agree. I'll leave it at that for now.
   12573. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 08, 2021 at 03:57 PM (#6012407)

I had a bike accident a few weeks ago and went to an urgent care facility for X-rays the next day. I was already vaccinated at that point but it felt pretty safe. I was the only patient there for most of the time, and then one other person came in for a COVID test while I was having the X-rays done.
   12574. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 08, 2021 at 04:01 PM (#6012408)

As for India, I have no idea where their curve will peak. They have set a new daily case record every day for four days straight now.

I started looking at the India numbers when a good friend told me he was going to visit his family in India in May, now that he's vaccinated. He mentioned that his relatives in India thought the country had reached herd immunity and I looked at the numbers and basically said, "If you're vaccinated it's probably safe to visit, but India looks more like a country on the verge of another outbreak than one that has reached herd immunity." That was 2 or 3 weeks ago.

Now he says his relatives in India are really worried and he may cancel his trip because he's worried about not being able to get back into the US.
   12575. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 08, 2021 at 04:03 PM (#6012410)
today's covid thread post of the day:

4686. Howie Menckel Posted: April 08, 2020 at 02:46 PM (#5937640)
from CNN:

A nursing home in Milan, Italy had 150 residents on March 1.
By April 1, there were only 87 left.
   12576. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 08, 2021 at 04:45 PM (#6012416)
My early reaction to COVID was very much colored by what happened in Italy. I remember posting something like "Only 10% of their tests are coming back positive, they can't be missing that many cases." Then like two days later they shut down a large portion of the country, and well, we all know what happened in Italy over the course of March-April. It was pretty humbling in terms of how wrong I was.

But yeah, in part for that reason I try to avoid dunking on people for things they said back in February/early March. (People who are still making the same commments today are a different story.)
   12577. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 08, 2021 at 06:26 PM (#6012465)
Heck, I just made my first barber-shop visit in 14 months. Barber didn't recognize me at first. :)


I've done two during the lockdown. Everyone's masked up and there are fewer chairs working at once.
   12578. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 08, 2021 at 07:47 PM (#6012494)
I am my own barber now. It's easy if you're cool with buzz cuts.
   12579. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 08, 2021 at 08:12 PM (#6012501)
You guys are all suckers. I’ve been cutting my own hair for 15 years. Of course, it’s easier when you don’t have very much to begin with.
   12580. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: April 08, 2021 at 08:51 PM (#6012507)
DeSantis has taken a lot of abuse, even though his state's numbers are doing OK. Of course, I suspect the economists will find a comfortable climate is a huge benefit in fighting COVID, since it seems to be transmitted almost entirely in closed spaces.
DeSantis has done a truly remarkable job of ensuring that a massive number of Covid deaths aren’t counted as such. On the order of something like a 40% undercount.
   12581. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 08, 2021 at 10:13 PM (#6012519)
DeSantis has done a truly remarkable job of ensuring that a massive number of Covid deaths aren’t counted as such. On the order of something like a 40% undercount.

I have been pretty critical of Desantis, especially when he stood in the way of local officials who tried to enforce mask mandates and other policies. But I haven't seen any evidence that Florida is undercounting deaths more than other states. Their excess deaths are pretty much around the national average, probably below it if you adjust for population age. Do you have a good source for the above claim?
   12582. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 08, 2021 at 10:20 PM (#6012522)

This study which came out a few weeks ago suggests Florida was undercounting by about 25% through last September. It's possible they began to undercount more after September, I suppose.
   12583. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 08, 2021 at 10:23 PM (#6012523)
same study, deleted link

   12584. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 08, 2021 at 10:52 PM (#6012532)
Two haircuts for me since all this started. Just don't see the point of cowering in terror 24/7 unless you know you live in the middle of a genuine hot zone. I've been eating out pretty much daily since probably June. I think the only thing I'm really doing differently is working from home.

(Yes, I wear a mask in stores, etc., and think those who don't are either idiots or evil, not that those are mutually exclusive.)

I have a friend who lives in a small trailer in the middle of a field in rural Tennessee who won't even open his mail till he's let it sit for a couple of days and spends all his time in just about total isolation. I think he's nuts. He's 20 years younger than me.

Of course, he's also really enthusiastic about hallucinogenic mushrooms and such and is convinced that they're a mental cure-all for everything and everybody, so there's that.
   12585. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 08, 2021 at 10:57 PM (#6012533)
Duh. Dupe.
   12586. catomi01 Posted: April 08, 2021 at 11:04 PM (#6012534)
I've done two during the lockdown. Everyone's masked up and there are fewer chairs working at once.


I went November to July last year...I was probably due right around when NY's shut downs started...so I got one pretty soon but not after things like that got the green light on LI...haven't gotten another since...but that has more to do with laziness/just not wanting to and Covid providing a convenient excuse...same reason I've grown out a beard longer/fuller than I've had since college. My 5 and 25 year old cousins each think I look good...my mother and grandmother strongly disagree...my wife is suspiciously silent on the subject.

Due for my 2nd shot at the end of April, so probably once that kicks in in mid-May I'll get my wife a birthday present and get a haircut....not really all that nervous about doing it sooner...just a convenient excuse to avoid something I don't want to do.
   12587. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 08, 2021 at 11:05 PM (#6012535)
I've been eating out pretty much daily

Like, eating in a restaurant, or picking up carryout?

We've started picking up a lot more often. We go to stores and wear a mask. We're planning a trip in June.

We're near the end of the line. Things are going very well.


   12588. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 08, 2021 at 11:08 PM (#6012536)
In a restaurant, at a table.
   12589. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 08, 2021 at 11:12 PM (#6012537)
Of course, I might be less cavalier if I had someone else's health to consider, but I don't. The cats are far healthier than I am; I'm basically a walking (actually, staggering -- yesterday's first lawnmowing of the year has left my right knee hurting like a bastard) bundle of co-morbidities, but what the hell.
   12590. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 08, 2021 at 11:19 PM (#6012538)
In a month, my family will be "fully" vaccinated, and I guess at that point its all but back to normal.
   12591. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 08, 2021 at 11:22 PM (#6012540)
Tuesday week for my second Pfizer.

Meanwhile, after a year the statewide mask mandate expires tomorrow, which I regard as a bad idea ... but dammit if they didn't forget to ask my opinion. Still, nothing to be gained by lapsing into (what I see as at least borderline) hysteria.
   12592. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 09, 2021 at 05:53 AM (#6012556)
I'm living in Castilla y León, Spain. Masks are mandatory in public spaces, both indoors and outdoors. Indoor dining has been off and on. It was off when I arrived in February, finally was permitted in mid-March (with limited seating), but as of Tuesday this week was prohibited in cities seeing an elevated incidence of COVID-19, including Burgos, where I am, until April 19. This has put a big pinch on restaurant owners, as you can imagine.

Vaccination is going slowly. They're were working on those over 70 until recently, also made difficult by multiple pauses in the administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine. They are starting today on those 64-65, and hope to get 7000 doses administered by next Tuesday. They are still below 10% vaccinated here.

   12593. Hot Wheeling American Posted: April 09, 2021 at 08:22 AM (#6012560)
In a month, my family will be "fully" vaccinated, and I guess at that point its all but back to normal.

Yeah...I received my first shot last week, but my wife is six months pregnant and we figured we've made it this far, we can make it through another few months (especially towards the end, when she won't want to be going anywhere anyway). So even though I'll be fully vaxed by the end of this month, I wasn't planning on much of a lifestyle change. But yesterday her doc cleared her to get vaccinated (today!) and now...I think I'd feel comfortable actually doing things, like going to the movies, a Mets game...even taking the subway. Weird feeling.

re: haircuts - my wife cut my hair twice last year (May and July, I believe), but I soon after started going back to my guy every few months. Everyone's masked, fewer customers than usual, etc., and things have been good there.
   12594. bunyon Posted: April 09, 2021 at 08:33 AM (#6012561)
There were a few weeks where my Mom and I were vaccinated and my vegetarian wife wasn't. Mom and I went to a steak place and cleaned it out. Ah, freedom.
   12595. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 09, 2021 at 09:08 AM (#6012567)
I’ve only had one restaurant meal indoors since the beginning of the pandemic. I’ve done a fair amount of outdoor dining (even when it was 30 degrees out) and I do my shopping like I normally would, just with a mask on. I have had doctor’s appointments like normal.

I have flown twice during the pandemic, both within the past few months.
   12596. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 09, 2021 at 10:12 AM (#6012575)
Trump officials celebrated efforts to change CDC reports on coronavirus, emails show

Calling Capt. Bothsides. Capt. Bothsides, please report to the thread.
   12597. bunyon Posted: April 09, 2021 at 10:35 AM (#6012576)
I've flew twice after the pandemic in 2020. Dad died in May and I didn't even think about it. I got on a plane and went to the funeral and then had an indoor dinner with family. I was sitting next to my 87 year old cousin after the funeral when I sort of woke up. It was early for Oklahoma and there were no masks in sight. Fortunately, Dad had asked for only an outdoor service at the gravesite, so that was safe. But dinner and negotiating the town was, in retrospect, frightening. Also, I realized, I had avoided going to see him (I had known for a few years that every visit had a decent chance of being the last) because of Covid but then flew to see him buried. He would have yelled at me about that. Anytime death and funerals came up, he shared his opinion that you should be nice to people when they're alive and that stuff like funerals and tending graves is silly.

I flew again a month or so later when the assisted living facility he was in opened to tested/screened visitors so I could pack up his apartment.

That meal with family was a) very much needed and b) scary as hell. A packed restaurant with a bunch of people I knew weren't taking the pandemic at all seriously. My wife and I had just been on a plane and in airports and were hanging out with a bunch of old folks. I half expected that we had brought covid to virgin territory. But it was still a couple of months before it hit there hard. (So, yeah, maybe we did, but no one I met ever got it. Still dumb). At the same time, I don't think I could have dealt with losing Dad without seeing those folks. Ceremony and family are important. I have a few acquaintances who lost loved ones over the course of the year and held no ceremony or get togethers to mark the loss. Smart, in terms of covid, but they've paid an awful psychological price. Seeing family and friends who were also grieving meant a lot.

Now that we're vaxxed, my wife and I are taking a short trip by air in a couple of weeks and then a longer one in July. I haven't eaten at restaurants yet because most of the people I go to restaurants with aren't yet vaccinated. But that will come soon.
   12598. BDC Posted: April 09, 2021 at 11:23 AM (#6012578)
Mask compliance was 100% in Target this morning. Of course the kind of Texan that gets up so they can be at Target when the doors open at 8am on a Friday morning is perhaps not way over on the risk-taking end of the continuum.
   12599. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 09, 2021 at 12:02 PM (#6012581)
This study which came out a few weeks ago suggests Florida was undercounting by about 25% through last September. It's possible they began to undercount more after September, I suppose.
Most states have been undercounting at a lower rate since November, so it's unlikely the number would have gone up.

Current CDC estimate has Florida at about 42,000 deaths (once you account for delays) as of two weeks ago, so about 24% above the current 34,000 reported (or, if you will, about 19% of their likely COVID deaths are not being reported as such). Rough estimates only, but 40% is pretty implausible.

   12600. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: April 09, 2021 at 12:04 PM (#6012582)
haven't flown, haven't been in a restaurant in a year. haircuts have been by my gf on my deck. rarely been in a store (which is a relatively low risk activity, there are just easy substitutes for most desired purchases, like curbside pickup). when i have been in a store, mask compliance has been in >95% territory. (seen a person or three wearing a mask, but with it off their mouth and nose.) i've two school age kids, one with an extensive iep, who have also been pretty locked down.

shot 2 of pfizer is on monday, pretty excited about it. that both of my kids are old enough to be at what i perceive as higher risk as kids go but not yet eligible for vaccination (so, between 12-16) will keep my actions still somewhat locked down from what they will be after they get vaccinated. the older kid had a peer die from covid, the younger one doesn't want to leave the house anyway - this has been an easy sell.

maybe a third of my friends have kept things locked down the way i have (or moreso) - i regard my actions as probably overly conservative here, but because i can be. the other 2/3rds have been more lax, but still take this fairly seriously. my relatives generally don't take it all that seriously and several of them are on or are coming off stints on ventilators now accordingly.
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