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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 13254 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   12601. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 09, 2021 at 12:32 PM (#6012585)
Flip
   12602. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 09, 2021 at 12:33 PM (#6012586)
Latest CDC estimates for IFR don't really make sense, and are now way too high, at least for this country. The reason is that they are using a 9% IFR for people over 65. If you assume 600,000 people over 65 have died from the virus so far, that means fewer than 7 million people over 65 were ever infected, which is only 12% of that age group. That seems very low at this point in the pandemic.

Assuming all age-groups were to be infected proportionally, the CDC's latest numbers show a US IFR of close to 1.7%.
   12603. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 09, 2021 at 12:51 PM (#6012594)
If you assume a very large pull-forward effect for people over 65, you might be able to get as many as 100,000+ more deaths in that age group from COVID that would have died by now from some other cause anyway (raising the 600,000 to 700,000+). Doing that would help explain a portion of the discrepancy, but not enough of it to align with the estimates of people over 65 who have been infected to this point.
   12604. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 09, 2021 at 07:29 PM (#6012627)
Quick note from HTN: While Abbott's doing what Abbott do, many population centers, including Houston, have retained their mask mandates, and compliance is where it was. (The State lost in Travis County in an attempt to prevent Austin from continuing its mandate.)
Harris county is still running over 20 weekday deaths (5955 total attributed deaths), per worldometer.
   12605. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 10, 2021 at 12:16 AM (#6012659)
The D.C. Government is allowing the Nationals to more than double the number of fans allowed, going from 5,000 (~ 12%) to 25% of capacity (about 10,328). Indoor sports will also now be allowed to have 10% of capacity. Might be seeing similar decisions in other jurisdictions that started with low limits.
   12606. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: April 10, 2021 at 02:12 PM (#6012691)
   12607. Nasty Nate Posted: April 10, 2021 at 05:11 PM (#6012720)
The D.C. Government is allowing the Nationals to more than double the number of fans allowed, going from 5,000 (~ 12%) to 25% of capacity (about 10,328). Indoor sports will also now be allowed to have 10% of capacity. Might be seeing similar decisions in other jurisdictions that started with low limits.
Cool. Did you go to a game last week? How was it?
   12608. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 10, 2021 at 05:41 PM (#6012724)
They're filling the 50 percent cap in Houston and apparently it is what it is,

"Nobody is really wearing their masks," Celestino said. "Once they get to their seats, they take it off. It is what it is."
"Yeah, I feel like they should, so everything can go back to normal faster, and if someone has it, they won't spread it to anybody," Hernandez said.

"We want to be here," said Astros fan Rachelle Hernandez. "I'll put on the mask. My kids are wearing masks. It is what it is."


   12609. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: April 10, 2021 at 07:40 PM (#6012739)
in the middle of a deadly pandemic - misunderstandings and misleading interpretations of what's going on can literally be deadly.

This isn't 'does WAR undervalue or overvalue DHs?', you know.


This is so idiotic, I don't even know how to respond to it.

Of course WAR undervalues DHs.
   12610. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 10, 2021 at 08:40 PM (#6012745)
Did you go to a game last week? How was it?
My older son & I went to the Nationals delayed Opening Day on April 6 - a come-from-behind, walk-off victory. Even met JE for pre-game beers. All went well, although I had to opt for more expensive seats since my regular 22-game partial plan location wasn’t available. Fans were in pods well-separated from others, and masks were required, as ushers reminded everyone. Concessions were only partially open, and there seemed to be a few bumps in the cashless, online ordering system, but it worked OK for beverages. Didn’t seem to be that much food available - probably tough to make much money on food with only 5,000 fans. The good news is that development around the ballpark has filled in nicely. It’s mostly bars & restaurants on Half Street from METRO to the ballpark, and along N Street. For the first time ever, no construction cranes were visible from the ballpark, compared to the half-dozen or more that dominated the skyline in previous seasons.
   12611. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: April 10, 2021 at 10:25 PM (#6012752)
The good news is that development around the ballpark has filled in nicely. It’s mostly bars & restaurants on Half Street from METRO to the ballpark, and along N Street. For the first time ever, no construction cranes were visible from the ballpark, compared to the half-dozen or more that dominated the skyline in previous seasons.

Is it true that the DC government has pretty much banned all street parking anywhere near the stadium on game days? The last time I went to Nats Park in about 2018, I parked about a 10 minute walk away, put enough quarters in the meter to cover myself until 6:30 (after which they weren't enforced), and saved myself up to $40.00 for the trouble. JE showed me the spot, and at the time I think he said he'd never paid to park for a night game.
   12612. puck Posted: April 10, 2021 at 11:14 PM (#6012762)
Update, maybe people aren't dying but getting sick still sucks. I had to check in to an icu on 4/4. Did not need a vent but could not breathe on my own and have been on huge supplemental o2 since. All I could do was concentrate on breathing, not texting anyone etc. Today finally I can sit up.

I don't know that the county is tracking variants. Supposedly p.1 has been spotted here but much later than when I contracted whatever I have. I am concerned about the two false negative pcr tests I had.
   12613. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 10, 2021 at 11:18 PM (#6012763)
Is it true that the DC government has pretty much banned all street parking anywhere near the stadium on game days?
Wouldn't surprise me if that was true - many residential areas in DC limit other than short-term parking to locals with permits - but I take METRO, which is far more convenient.
   12614. SoSH U at work Posted: April 10, 2021 at 11:21 PM (#6012764)
Jeez, that’s awful Puck. Here’s hoping for your continued recovery.
   12615. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 10, 2021 at 11:46 PM (#6012768)
Good luck, puck. Hope the worst is over.
   12616. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 11, 2021 at 05:52 AM (#6012775)
Wishing you continued improvement, puck.
   12617. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: April 11, 2021 at 08:38 AM (#6012780)
Get well soon, puck!
   12618. JJ1986 Posted: April 11, 2021 at 08:50 AM (#6012781)
There is a dude in my vaccine line decked out in Trump 2020 gear at 845 in the morning.
   12619. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 11, 2021 at 10:17 AM (#6012785)
Hey, at least he's getting vaccinated.
   12620. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 11, 2021 at 10:20 AM (#6012786)

Feel better, puck.
   12621. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 11, 2021 at 12:58 PM (#6012799)
Hey, at least he's getting vaccinated.


If only a vaccine for stupidity existed. Of course, in this case it's clearly far too late, & very likely his condition is terminal.
   12622. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 11, 2021 at 01:38 PM (#6012804)
Of course WAR undervalues DHs.


Nature is healing.
   12623. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 11, 2021 at 03:26 PM (#6012816)
sorry to hear, puck, good luck with your recovery.
   12624. Tony S Posted: April 11, 2021 at 06:01 PM (#6012845)

Hope you keep getting better, puck.


There is a dude in my vaccine line decked out in Trump 2020 gear at 845 in the morning.


That is good news. If that element is getting vaccinated, there's hope yet for herd immunity.

   12625. Ron J Posted: April 11, 2021 at 06:52 PM (#6012850)
#12624 Not sure what to make out of reports that 40% of marines have declined to be vaccinated.
   12626. Lassus Posted: April 11, 2021 at 07:30 PM (#6012852)
WTF is going on in Michigan?


#12624 Not sure what to make out of reports that 40% of marines have declined to be vaccinated.

Can't they be fucking ordered? Isn't that the goddamned point of being in charge of an army?
   12627. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 11, 2021 at 08:04 PM (#6012855)
I believe the Michigan Supreme Court ruled back in the fall that Whitmer could not keep extending the emergency orders indefinitely without the support of the legislature, so they expired at that point while some were implemented via other means. Whether she can reinstate them now, I don’t know. Instead she is encouraging “voluntary” compliance which is kind of ridiculous but her hands are somewhat tied.

I don’t know why other states bordering MI haven’t had the same level of outbreak. It sounds like Ontario, across the border, is having some similar issues though.
   12628. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 11, 2021 at 08:06 PM (#6012856)
Being vaccinated against COVID would seem to be a basic military readiness issue. I don’t know if they can require it but I’m surprised they haven’t been able to convince more of these guys to take it.
   12629. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 11, 2021 at 08:38 PM (#6012858)
Instead she is encouraging “voluntary” compliance which is kind of ridiculous

Sad testimony to where we are as a polity that asking people to consider others is kind of ridiculous.

& Good luck, puck. I've been dealing w/ a stomach flu or at least I'm assuming that's all it is.
   12630. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 11, 2021 at 08:47 PM (#6012859)
Good luck, Puck
   12631. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: April 11, 2021 at 09:54 PM (#6012863)
Something of a legal discussion about why the Marines can say no here:

lawfire link

Interesting that the article talks about the military ordering member to get the Anthrax vaccine, as I was in that situation in like 2003. There were very real concerns with the Anthrax vaccine and little actual utility, yet folks like me were forced (by a republican president) to get it. Back then it was the democrats who were pushing back...
   12632. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 11, 2021 at 09:58 PM (#6012866)
Patriots Get Vaccinated.
   12633. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 11, 2021 at 10:08 PM (#6012867)
I'm not aware of any opt-out for the meningitis vax that's been required for college students for the past several years. The constitutional interest is also of interest to my cats.
   12634. bunyon Posted: April 12, 2021 at 09:51 AM (#6012902)
Potentially bad news for the world (which at last count included the US).

I'd guess more people will get Sinovac than any other single vaccine. If it's crap, that's bad news for everyone. But potentially an opening for American diplomacy.

I'm slated to go to Chile in spring 2022 and had been encouraged by their robust vaccine rollout. However, it's mostly Sinovac and they've had a big wave recently and are currently locked down hard.

TFA isn't definitive by any stretch, of course. Hopefully, it isn't as bad as it appears in that article.
   12635. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: April 12, 2021 at 12:02 PM (#6012929)
J&J seems likely to be administered worldwide in similar numbers to Sinovac. I think China has said they will do 2B Sinovac doses a year which is equivalent to 1B J&J doses. It is definitely not great news, if it is true, that the first Sinovac shot is nearly worthless without the second shot. Part of the appeal to using J&J worldwide is that a single dose simplifies the vaccination process in places with lesser infrastructure.
   12636. Tom Nawrocki Posted: April 12, 2021 at 12:20 PM (#6012937)
Update, maybe people aren't dying but getting sick still sucks. I had to check in to an icu on 4/4. Did not need a vent but could not breathe on my own and have been on huge supplemental o2 since. All I could do was concentrate on breathing, not texting anyone etc. Today finally I can sit up.


Wow, I'm really sorry to hear that, but I'm glad you're on the mend. You must have been very close to getting vaccinated when you got sick, right? I got my first shot on 3/25. Do you have any sense of where you might have contracted it?
   12637. SoSH U at work Posted: April 12, 2021 at 12:21 PM (#6012938)
Got my first shot today (Pfizer). Again thanks to Tony S for alerting me to the Hoosier Hospitality that made it possible.
   12638. Lassus Posted: April 12, 2021 at 01:18 PM (#6012971)
It is definitely not great news, if it is true, that the first Sinovac shot is nearly worthless without the second shot.

You'd kinda think someone would have caught that.
   12639. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 12, 2021 at 01:24 PM (#6012977)
Can't they be ####### ordered? Isn't that the goddamned point of being in charge of an army?
As explained in the link at # 12631, because the vaccines are only approved for emergency use, military personnel can’t be required to receive them until they are approved for regular use. The President could waive that, but according to the linked article, Biden hasn’t done so, his Defense Secretary hasn’t requested that he do so, and there may not ever be any plan to do so. Seems like any ire should be directed at the White House and/or DoD, rather than individual service members, although it isn’t yet clear how many will eventually opt to voluntarily take the vaccine.
   12640. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 12, 2021 at 02:36 PM (#6013009)
Seems like any ire should be directed at the White House and/or DoD, rather than individual service members,
Um...why? Service members should be expected not to be jackasses, just like the rest of us, even if it's not required.
   12641. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 12, 2021 at 02:54 PM (#6013022)
The original epithet-laden post seemed to be lamenting that the troops had not yet been ordered to be vaccinated against their will.
   12642. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 12, 2021 at 03:17 PM (#6013035)
According to the Cleveland Clinic, as more women receive the vaccine, doctors are noticing a sharp rise in their mammograms showing swollen lymph nodes under the arm—which, under different circumstances, can sometimes be indicative of breast cancer. For most recipients of the covid vaccine, doctors say that swollen lymph nodes are a common response by the body. “The whole point of the vaccine is to get your immune system to mount a response to whatever the vaccine agent is,” one doctor explained to the Cleveland Clinic. Lymph nodes which function as filters for trapping viruses in the body often serve as one of the early detection signs for breast cancer. When the lymph nodes swell it’s part of a larger immune system response—and when those nodes are closer to the breasts, they can be indicative of a cancer spread. Because the vaccine is shot into the upper arm, doctors are not surprised that common the immune response of swollen lymph nodes is showing up in the underarm area.

   12643. Eudoxus Posted: April 12, 2021 at 03:52 PM (#6013039)
April 8: 776 -> 784; 1% increase
April 9: 784 -> 776; 1% decrease
April 10: 776 -> 757; 2.5% decrease
April 11: 757 -> 755; 0.3% decrease

The downward trend has leveled out some, but is still headed in the right direction. Since things got started, the US has been at a lower death level than this between October 1 and October 18 of last year and between June 15 and July 11 of last year.

Gibraltar is now down to 2 active cases. They still have the highest per capita death rate in the world overall, but I'd say at least Hungary and probably also Czechia are set to overtake them at some point.

The UK has been hovering right around 30 deaths per day for about a week now, maybe as a result of lockdowns loosening or maybe just a flattening of the vaccination effect as deaths get quite low. One result is that the UK has dropped back below Italy in per capita deaths (the UK was 5th in the world back in January and has now dropped to 13th).

Some current per capita death rates (daily deaths using the most recent running 7-day average):

India: 0.54
UK: 0.55
US: 2.3
Germany: 2.4
Italy: 7.6
Czechia: 10.2
Poland: 13
Brazil: 14.6
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 23
Hungary: 25.3

My confidence that India would peak at around 200,000 new cases a day has weakened somewhat. The curve at least looks more linear than exponential to me, but it's not showing much sign of the second derivative going negative yet. I think probably this week India moves reliably ahead of the US in daily deaths (making the US third behind Brazil and India), although obviously not per capita.
   12644. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 12, 2021 at 04:09 PM (#6013041)
12642 yes I have two family members who were advised to postpone mammograms until some period of time (6 weeks, I think) after getting the vaccine, for that reason. I think it’s a pretty commonly known side effect and not something to be concerned about.
   12645. Tony S Posted: April 12, 2021 at 05:07 PM (#6013050)
Got my first shot today (Pfizer). Again thanks to Tony S for alerting me to the Hoosier Hospitality that made it possible.


Great! So you made it home from sunny, scenic Gary -- do you have to go back there for the sequel?

My neighbor, who got his shots around when I got mine (second one three weeks ago), ventured out to a restaurant in Middletown (a few miles west of Frederick) the other day, and told me that the place was wall-to-wall packed. He said if he hadn't been vaccinated he would have turned right around and bolted out.

I'm gradually ending my own lockdown -- Saturday I had my first social visit with (also vaxxed) friends. Might do the restaurant thing next weekend.




   12646. SoSH U at work Posted: April 12, 2021 at 05:12 PM (#6013052)
Great! So you made it home from sunny, scenic Gary -- do you have to go back there for the sequel?


Yes, May 3. It's a drive-thru. From the time I entered the lot at the former Roosevelt High School until pricking by the National Guardswoman, the whole process took about three minutes.
   12647. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 12, 2021 at 06:16 PM (#6013065)
Some CDC vaccine data from the WaPo:

Jan. 12: 732,918 doses given; 764,964 7 day avg.
Feb. 12: 1,951,410 doses given; 1,627,093 7 day avg.
Mar. 12: 2,924,112 doses given; 2,302,844 7 day avg.
Apr. 12: 2,644,914 doses given; 3,214,893 7 day avg.

That may be ramping up a bit slower than some of the early predictions, but it’s still increasing by ~ 800K a month, meaning we should hit 4M doses a day in May, and could approach 5M a day in June at that pace.
   12648. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 12, 2021 at 06:28 PM (#6013069)
meaning we should hit 4M doses a day in May, and could approach 5M a day in June at that pace


No, because we're likely to ultimately give out ~400 million doses, which is the point where pretty much anyone who wants to be vaccinated will be. 3.5 million per day for the rest of April would put us at 253 million going into May. Four million per day in May would put us at 377 million going into June. My expectation is that there will be a big drop off in early June, as nearly everyone who wants to be vaccinated will have already had at least their first shot and June will be mostly just second shots.
   12649. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: April 12, 2021 at 06:52 PM (#6013078)
Seems like any ire should be directed at the White House and/or DoD, rather than individual service members,
Um...why?
He doesn't like the guy who's in the White House now.
   12650. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 12, 2021 at 08:48 PM (#6013104)
The former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under Donald Trump, Dr. Robert Redfield, has landed a sweet gig at...Big Ass Fans.

Per Kaiser Health News (KHN), Redfield is now a strategic health and safety adviser for the company, effectively lending his scientific reputation to Big Ass Fans and the $9,450 ion-generating model it claims is 99.99% effective at sterilizing rooms from the coronavirus. Dr. Deborah Birx, the former coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, has signed on with a separate company called ActivePure which markets products that release small amounts of hydrogen peroxide as having a similar success rate



   12651. Tony S Posted: April 12, 2021 at 09:19 PM (#6013114)
Big Ass Fans


This sounds like an air-blowing bidet.
   12652. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 12, 2021 at 09:42 PM (#6013131)
Interesting to hear about the drive-through lines. I was asked by the pharmacist to stay in the store for at least 15 minutes in the very unlikely event of an anaphylaxic reaction.
   12653. Ron J Posted: April 12, 2021 at 09:55 PM (#6013136)
New Zealand has said that any border agent that is not vaccinated will be reassigned. This after an outbreak was traced back to a border agent who had missed two appointments to be vaccinated.
   12654. SoSH U at work Posted: April 12, 2021 at 10:09 PM (#6013137)
Mayor, after getting our shots, we had to drive over to a separate lane with the time our shot was administered on a post-it note on the windshield. When I got to the front of the line, a guardsman asked me how I was feeling then sent me on my way. It wasn’t quite 15 minutes, but it was close.
   12655. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 12, 2021 at 10:11 PM (#6013138)
SoSH, thanks for the explanation. Makes sense. We had a discussion of the vax in class today for one student who was hesitant in the non-euphemistic sense of the term. One of the people in the discussion had missed weeks with COVID.
   12656. baxter Posted: April 12, 2021 at 11:05 PM (#6013145)
12652 Shot administered in large parking lot, cars snake around in two sets of lines, each to get shots. Once one pulled up to where the shot was administered (cars were marked to let in a certain #, I think 20 in this final line), the nurse came by each car with a cart on wheels, administered the shot. There is a 15 minute wait in the car after last shot administered to the line, parked in the same spot. If no reaction, after a query from the nurse, that group is excused drives off.

"big ass fans" I thought it was a porn site for those with Rubenesque tastes.

Dr. Birx, not the type of physician I would want to see or whose opinion I would want to heed. Give me the one who jumps up and says it's ridiculous to inject bleach (irrespective of the speaker, whether it was FDR or Lincoln or Washington).
   12657. SoSH U at work Posted: April 12, 2021 at 11:12 PM (#6013147)
Big Ass fans is quite real. They're the most prominent name in fans for large industrial facilities (warehouses, factories, etc.). I run into them at trade shows.
   12658. baxter Posted: April 12, 2021 at 11:58 PM (#6013152)
Thank you; learn something new every day.
   12659. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 13, 2021 at 01:13 AM (#6013155)
Big Ass fans is quite real. They're the most prominent name in fans for large industrial facilities (warehouses, factories, etc.). I run into them at trade shows.

Sounds dangerous!
   12660. Lassus Posted: April 13, 2021 at 07:55 AM (#6013165)
The original epithet-laden post seemed to be lamenting that the troops had not yet been ordered to be vaccinated against their will.

"Epithet" is a (I assume purposefully) very poor description of my language use in that post, as it implies name-calling, none of which occurred.

Not only that, my ire was pretty clearly pointed at the persons giving the orders.

But as long as you've brought it up, ire at a large percentage of of a specific group refusing to get the vaccine in addition to (as supposed to instead of, which you of course made up) the chain of command specifically in charge of THOSE people seems justified.
   12661. Ron J Posted: April 13, 2021 at 08:01 AM (#6013166)
I run into them at trade shows.


I try not to judge the choice of hobbies of others. But that is ... unusual.
   12662. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 13, 2021 at 08:15 AM (#6013168)
The UK has been hovering right around 30 deaths per day for about a week now, maybe as a result of lockdowns loosening or maybe just a flattening of the vaccination effect as deaths get quite low.


I suppose that there will be a long - perhaps very long - tail of deaths at this kind of level, as people who have been hospitalised for months on end may make up the bulk, who of course will not be helped by vaccination efforts.

In Germany, there were news reports that 700k vaccinations were performed in one day last week, which would be the equivalent of about 2.8m in the US, but the overall supply seems to be restraining efforts to, at best, half that on an ongoing basis. I suppose that's one advantage of having an election in September this year; politicians over here may be acutely aware of upcoming accountability. Vaccine 'reluctance' here is also likely to be more common than in the UK. Selfishly, if that means my wife being vaccinated earlier than otherwise, I suppose at least there is an upside.
   12663. bunyon Posted: April 13, 2021 at 09:01 AM (#6013176)
Vaccine hesitancy stock sharply up this morning.


So that's Sinovac and J&J taking it on the chin in successive days.

The FDA rec on J&J looks (without seeing data) to be a huge overreaction. Like the AZ clots, it's on the order of 1 per million (if it's real in J&J's case) or, put another way, 1000x less likely than (different) clots from birth control.

But both J&J and AZ use an adenoviral vector so it's not bizarre they'd show similar extremely low level effects.

Given the average American's understanding of risk and science, I'm guessing this pretty much kills J&J in the US.
   12664. catomi01 Posted: April 13, 2021 at 10:05 AM (#6013183)
Big Ass fans is quite real. They're the most prominent name in fans for large industrial facilities (warehouses, factories, etc.). I run into them at trade shows.


Currently drinking coffee out of my Big Ass Fans mug that they send when we requested info for our warehouse.
   12665. Greg Pope Posted: April 13, 2021 at 10:39 AM (#6013188)
I'm gradually ending my own lockdown -- Saturday I had my first social visit with (also vaxxed) friends. Might do the restaurant thing next weekend.

My second shot was two weeks ago this coming Thursday, so I'm in the same situation. I've avoided indoor dining* but have done outdoor dining when the Chicago weather has permitted it. After Thursday I'll be OK to do indoor dining. Also I will see Black Widow with my (fully vaccinated) teenagers when it comes out.

*I've made exceptions a couple of times. Once we went to lunch at 2:00 or so and the restaurant was empty so I was fine there.
   12666. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 13, 2021 at 10:39 AM (#6013189)
Yeah, pulling a vaccine for disease that has killed over 1/1000 Americans because of side effects that affect less than 1/1000000 recipients is kind of ridiculous. One other note is that all the blood clots have been in women under 50 years old so it may be 0 risk for men and post-menopausal women.
   12667. Greg Pope Posted: April 13, 2021 at 10:42 AM (#6013190)
Given the average American's understanding of risk and science, I'm guessing this pretty much kills J&J in the US.

Yeah, one in a million is not something that Americans can readily grasp. Plus there's the whole "I can control getting the vaccine but I can't control getting COVID" thing. If you have a 1% chance of getting COVID and a 1% chance of dying from it, that's still only one in 10,000. Which is 100 times worse than a one in a million chance of a blood clot. Which is treatable, especially now that they know to look for it.
   12668. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 13, 2021 at 10:54 AM (#6013192)
Yeah, one in a million is not something that Americans can readily grasp.
"So you're saying there's a chance!!"
   12669. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: April 13, 2021 at 10:55 AM (#6013193)
One reason that seems to justify a brief pause, the standard treatment for blood clots is Heparin and that apparently makes this clotting worse. So spend a couple days pushing out information to health providers and then let the J&J vaccine flow again.

One other note is that all the blood clots have been in women under 50 years old so it may be 0 risk for men and post-menopausal women.
Seems like a great opportunity to brand J&J as the vaccine that is too powerful for women.
   12670. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 13, 2021 at 10:58 AM (#6013195)
There must be a weird balance between "we can't allow the minor imperfections of a vaccine to increase the significantly higher actual risks of dying from Covid" and "we can't allow the minor imperfections of one vaccine to negatively influence the perception of all other vaccines' effectiveness and therefore increase the spread of Covid".
   12671. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 13, 2021 at 12:54 PM (#6013211)
The Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, DC has announced a schedule of in-person theater at full capacity with no requirement for social distancing beginning in October. Tickets go on sale today. One would think outdoor events might beat that time frame.
   12672. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 13, 2021 at 12:58 PM (#6013212)
Not only that, my ire was pretty clearly pointed at the persons giving the orders.
And I merely pointed out who was required to give the order that you so strongly felt was appropriate, so that you might direct your ire in that direction, if you so chose.
   12673. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 13, 2021 at 01:18 PM (#6013217)
Seems like a great opportunity to brand J&J as the vaccine that is too powerful for women.


If you have a johnson, take Johnson and Johnson.
   12674. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 13, 2021 at 01:50 PM (#6013221)
Yeah, one in a million is not something that Americans can readily grasp. Plus there's the whole "I can control getting the vaccine but I can't control getting COVID" thing. If you have a 1% chance of getting COVID and a 1% chance of dying from it, that's still only one in 10,000. Which is 100 times worse than a one in a million chance of a blood clot. Which is treatable, especially now that they know to look for it.

For what it's worth, a woman under the age of 50 in the US has a much lower than 1% chance of dying from COVID. The CFR for all people age 20-49 is about 0.1% in Florida now, so the IFR is probably 0.025-0.05%, and probably at the lower end of that range for women.
   12675. Lassus Posted: April 13, 2021 at 02:38 PM (#6013228)
And I merely pointed out who was required to give the order that you so strongly felt was appropriate, so that you might direct your ire in that direction, if you so chose.

You telling me to do something I'd already done - as if I hadn't - is right about where I'd place your honest conversation status.
   12676. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: April 13, 2021 at 03:26 PM (#6013235)
If you have a johnson, take Johnson and Johnson.
They should have The Rock do some PSAs with the slogan: “Ladies can’t handle this Johnson”.
   12677. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: April 13, 2021 at 07:30 PM (#6013283)
I got the J&J yesterday- perfect timing!

No blood clots yet but my lymph nodes are swollen pretty good. Bunch of other side effects too.

So far it's not nearly as bad as either yellow fever or the Anthrax vaccines but it's not a lot of fun either.

I was pretty impressed with the whole process; had to stand in a line that wrapped around the block but it only took about 20 minutes to get through it and then wait my 25 minutes. Interestingly, the bottleneck was the waiting area; they had to wait for folks to leave after their 25 minutes to free up chairs for the next round of folks to sit for observation.

As far as the military thing, I would have supported forcing them and if we were in this position under Trump I am certain he'd be criticized heavily over not forcing them to do it. The fact that he wasn't makes me think maybe it's not true.

Even if it's voluntary, it should be career-ending or -limiting for anyone who loses deployability or otherwise impacts readiness by refusing to take the vaccine, just the same as not being deployable because you failed a PT test would be.
   12678. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 13, 2021 at 09:42 PM (#6013307)
re: military refusal.

This is all bullcrap I read on reddit, but the claim is that they are refusing to take it so they can keep working remotely. If you receive it you have to show up for work. And they can't require it until it has FDA approval, not emergency approval.

   12679. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: April 13, 2021 at 10:55 PM (#6013313)
That makes a lot of sense, Barry. If that's the case then it's pretty textbook shirking and should be rewarded accordingly.
   12680. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 14, 2021 at 03:51 AM (#6013330)
The scary thing is that this could actually work:

CDC Launches Ad Campaign Featuring Racist Mascot In Effort To Get More Conservatives Vaccinated

ATLANTA—Targeting the series of PSAs towards communities that were skeptical of inoculation, the Centers For Disease Control launched a new ad campaign Tuesday featuring a racially offensive animated mascot in an effort to get more conservatives vaccinated. “We’re hopeful that associating the vaccine with this outmoded and reprehensible caricature will help give right-wing Americans some comfort and familiarity and increase their likelihood of signing up,” said Director Rochelle Walensky, confirming that the mascot, whose design was based largely on World War II propaganda imagery, would speak in an offensively broad accent to continuously spout racial catchphrases completely unacceptable to modern sensibilities. “Our goal is to provoke a massive public pressure campaign which forces us to remove this hateful mascot, leading conservatives to locate as many vaccines as possible lest the country lose an important part of its heritage to cancel culture and the woke mob.”
   12681. Tony S Posted: April 14, 2021 at 08:37 AM (#6013343)

That CDC scheme is way too clever by half. Washing the car to make it rain never works.

They should just have Hillary speak out against getting vaxxed. Vacant red-state vaccine slots would be booked overnight.

   12682. Ron J Posted: April 14, 2021 at 09:18 AM (#6013348)
Update number whatever on Sweden. Not only did they not get their herd immunity (supposedly in sight last May), they're currently leading the EU in new infections per million (7 day average of 625 -- 9 times that of Finland). And have more people in ICU than they had at any point in the second wave. But only 70% of their peak.
   12683. Tony S Posted: April 14, 2021 at 09:22 AM (#6013350)

OK Dave, you got me. That's the Onion. :)

And yet it's all too plausible.
   12684. Lassus Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:20 AM (#6013351)
Ron J - do you have a link for that? I have a SwedenCOVID guy in Romania I need to troll.
   12685. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 14, 2021 at 10:28 AM (#6013353)
Here is a Sweden link that hits on the points that Ron mentioned:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-sweden-rule-johnson-johnson-125926111.html

Deaths remained at a relatively low 1.7 daily fatalities per million people, below the European average of 4.3 deaths.

Sweden recorded 39 new deaths, taking the total to 13,660. The deaths registered have occurred over several days and sometimes weeks.

Sweden's death rate per capita is many times higher than that of its Nordic neighbours' but lower than in most European countries that have opted for lockdowns.
   12686. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 14, 2021 at 11:53 AM (#6013361)
I posted in this thread, or its predecessor, sometime last year: Sweden and Norway are probably the best available comparisons we have for 'hard' versus 'soft' lockdown strategies. Their populations are comparable in terms of culture, health, living density, income, etc. Their climates are very similar. There are differences, of course, but the two make for very good comparisons overall. Norway enforced lockdowns through legislation - Sweden largely did not until late last year, when it was clear that herd immunity had not been achieved and the second wave was growing.

As of today, deaths per million due to Covid according to Worldometers:

Sweden - 1,352
Norway - 129

That difference would be the equivalent of over 400k deaths in the US, if I'm doing the math correctly.
   12687. SoSH U at work Posted: April 14, 2021 at 02:01 PM (#6013374)
And the GDP decline in Norway was slightly smaller than Sweden's in 2020, so the extra bodies didn't result in lots of economic goodness.
   12688. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 14, 2021 at 03:23 PM (#6013393)

My confidence that India would peak at around 200,000 new cases a day has weakened somewhat. The curve at least looks more linear than exponential to me, but it's not showing much sign of the second derivative going negative yet. I think probably this week India moves reliably ahead of the US in daily deaths (making the US third behind Brazil and India), although obviously not per capita.

India basically hit 200,000 new cases today (199,531 according to Worldometers).
   12689. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 14, 2021 at 06:22 PM (#6013452)
some read meat for the grammar nerds in this thread:
Jim Thomas @jthom1
In case you’re wondering, every member of the Blues - actually - every member of their 50-person travel party - has been vaccinated. Or at least been offered the vaccine.
   12690. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 14, 2021 at 07:26 PM (#6013462)
OK Dave, you got me. That's the Onion. :)

I honestly thought you knew and were just continuing the joke with your Hillary comment :)
   12691. Tony S Posted: April 15, 2021 at 08:01 AM (#6013532)
This, unfortunately, is NOT the Onion.

The US doesn't have a monopoly on idiots.
   12692. Eudoxus Posted: April 15, 2021 at 11:43 AM (#6013573)
India basically hit 200,000 new cases today (199,531 according to Worldometers).

Yeah, a definite -10 prognosticator points for me on that. I had rolling 7-day average in mind, so there are a few more days before I'm definitely refuted, but it looks inevitable at this point. Daily new cases have been going up about 10,000 per day for about two weeks now. The best that can be said is that it's looking a bit more linear than exponential so far. Of course, even at 200,000 new cases a day, India is per capita at a lower rate than the US is now. (They'd have to hit a million cases a day to match our January peak.)

Ongoing US death rates:

April 12: 761 -> 755; 0.8% decline
April 13: 755 -> 748; 1% decline
April 14: 748 -> 747; 0.1% decline

So a bit of slowing in the drop. That's to be expected, I think -- by now we should have felt a good chunk of the effect of vaccinating the higher-risk population, and the newer vaccinations are in lower-risk populations that won't make as much impact on death rates. We're vaccinating about 1% of the population a day, so as we enter lower-risk populations, we'd start to expect <1% declines regularly.

Other notes:

-India has now moved solidly ahead of the US in average daily deaths (total, not per capita), and will probably stay there for a long time. That puts the US third, with I think Poland next in line. (Poland currently at 603/day.)

-The Mexico data is confusing. They had come down from the winter peak even more effectively than the US (from 1280 deaths/day down to 172 per day), even with much much lower vaccination rates, but in the last three days their numbers have spiked up sharply. Given the earlier story about much higher excess deaths than their official COVID numbers would suggest, I suspect reporting irregularities.

-Gibraltar now reports 104% of their population with at least one vaccination shot. Makes the "non-citizen workers being vaccinated" explanation look even more tempting. (Gibraltar had been down to 1 reported active case but yesterday reported 13 new cases. Presumably in fact good news, as it means they're succeeding in tracking down more of the remaining cases.)
   12693. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 15, 2021 at 12:04 PM (#6013577)
It seems reasonable, Eudoxus, and good for them getting it as done as they have. * I don't know what their situation might be with non-cit crossers from North Africa.
   12694. Eudoxus Posted: April 15, 2021 at 12:52 PM (#6013589)
It seems reasonable, Eudoxus, and good for them getting it as done as they have.

Absolutely -- I'm wildly in favor of getting as many people as possible vaccinated through pretty much any method. I gather that the US vaccination procedures are at least in principle set up to be available to anyone on US soil regardless of citizenship or immigration status. As it should be. Viruses, borders, etc.
   12695. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 15, 2021 at 01:16 PM (#6013591)
They are supposed to be, I think. But some undocumented immigrants have trouble showing proof of residency to be eligible for vaccination.
   12696. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 15, 2021 at 02:57 PM (#6013617)
India at 216,850 cases today. The rate of increase continues to be very worrisome.
   12697. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: April 16, 2021 at 10:58 AM (#6013772)
12671. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 13, 2021 at 12:54 PM (#6013211)
The Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, DC has announced a schedule of in-person theater at full capacity with no requirement for social distancing beginning in October. Tickets go on sale today. One would think outdoor events might beat that time frame.

We have tickets for the USA gymnastics Olympic trials that were postponed from last year. Supposedly you could get a refund for them for 1 week only last August but we missed the email.

Anyway, as far as we can tell full capacity is a go at the end of June for indoor events in St. Louis. The adults are fully vaxxed, but I'm not really going ho about it.
   12698. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: April 16, 2021 at 11:03 AM (#6013773)
That being said, our Priest opened the door to 100% mass capacity, mask optional the weekend before Easter. Needless to say in South Carolina, it's maybe 60-65% masked with no pew spacing. And given the pro-Fox News bent of the congregation, I'd be shocked if most of the non-maskers have been vaxxed.

Although I did see a shirt on a 400 pound guy that read "Kneel for the Cross, Stand for the Flag" with a graphic of a cross colored in red/white/blue with a Punisher overlay, so maybe I'm just generalizing.
   12699. Lassus Posted: April 16, 2021 at 11:46 AM (#6013781)
India at 216,850 cases today. The rate of increase continues to be very worrisome.

I have not spent a singe second in India. Has the country just become so big they kind of stopped giving a fuck about anything?
   12700. Lassus Posted: April 16, 2021 at 11:48 AM (#6013783)
The Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, DC has announced a schedule of in-person theater at full capacity with no requirement for social distancing beginning in October. Tickets go on sale today. One would think outdoor events might beat that time frame.
We have tickets for the USA gymnastics Olympic trials that were postponed from last year. Supposedly you could get a refund for them for 1 week only last August but we missed the email. Anyway, as far as we can tell full capacity is a go at the end of June for indoor events in St. Louis. The adults are fully vaxxed, but I'm not really going ho about it.
I'd be surprised if this sticks, but maybe.
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