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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 13033 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   12701. mike f Posted: April 16, 2021 at 02:02 PM (#6013814)
Meanwhile, in no lockdown 100% open mid sized town Florida, Easter mass was 100% masked with half the pews closed...
   12702. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 16, 2021 at 06:21 PM (#6013888)
the new york post is a quality publication with a legacy of good works in the public interest, and it is absolutely not a worthless rag that i wouldn't even wipe my dog's ass with:

University of Cincinnati student dead day after getting J&J vaccine
https://t.co/bf72VYhS9p
pic.twitter.com/B9g8LATWJy

— New York Post (@nypost) April 16, 2021
This is not a just a shameless ploy for eyeballs, which the Post has essentially refined to an art at this point. It’s actively dangerous. There is zero scientific or journalistic purpose to these death stories. With some 3.35 million shots going into arms each day, bad things are bound to happen to people who, coincidentally, just got a shot; this is not news. Meanwhile, every single day people do die of COVID—912 yesterday—a fact that we are all so numb to at this point in the pandemic that it’s difficult for stories stating that we’ve reached a new milestone in hundreds of thousands of deaths to break through the noise.

   12703. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 16, 2021 at 07:08 PM (#6013895)
All those beautiful vaccines turned deadly on 20 Jan, I suppose.
   12704. Srul Itza Posted: April 16, 2021 at 07:10 PM (#6013896)
the new york post is a quality publication with a legacy of good works in the public interest,


The thing is -- that used to be the truth, pre-Murdock.

I delivered the NY Post (and the Journal News) in Rockland County in the late 60's. It noted its founding by Alexander Hamilton, and was an excellent read in tabloid form, in contrast to its tabloid competitor, the Daily News, and with a far better sports section than the New York Times.

What it became later has always been a source of great sadness for me.
   12705. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 16, 2021 at 11:25 PM (#6013937)
I think we'll be back to normal by fall. I bought October Widespread Panic tickets with that assumption.

Everyone who wants a vaccine will have one by June. By Fall, back to normal. Once we have 75% of population vaccinated, there isn't much more we can do.
   12706. Tony S Posted: April 17, 2021 at 09:10 AM (#6013954)
I think we'll be back to normal by fall. I bought October Widespread Panic tickets with that assumption.


Oh, you'll definitely use the tickets. Hopefully it's to see the band, and not to deal with the Covid situation.

   12707. Tony S Posted: April 17, 2021 at 09:16 AM (#6013957)
Re the NY Post: You've got to wonder why they want their own readers not to get the vaccine, by planting all these scare stories. What's the purpose of killing off your own reader base?

   12708. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: April 17, 2021 at 09:52 AM (#6013961)
Bloody hell ...
In Brazil, where coronavirus deaths are running at about 3,000 per day, accounting for one-quarter of the lives lost worldwide in recent weeks, the crisis has been likened to a “raging inferno” by one WHO official. A more contagious variant of the virus has been rampaging across the country.

As cases surge, hospitals are running out of critical sedatives. As a result, there have been reports of some doctors diluting supplies and even tying patients to their beds while breathing tubes are pushed down their throats.
   12709. Tony S Posted: April 17, 2021 at 10:10 AM (#6013963)

Have we restricted travel to/from Brazil and India? What are we waiting for?
   12710. Ron J Posted: April 17, 2021 at 10:51 AM (#6013964)
#12709 Brazil, yes. India, best I can tell it's still not subject to special restrictions,
   12711. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 17, 2021 at 11:04 AM (#6013967)
I don’t think we have fully blocked travel to anywhere, but we’re only allowing US citizens and their family back in from a number of countries, including Brazil. Link to list. India isn’t on that list but probably should be now.

Even just a week ago you could argue that their numbers were on a bad trend line but weren’t any worse than many other countries in the world, including the US, on a per capita basis. That argument is harder to make now.

Travel bans have other negative effects so I understand why countries are reluctant to approve them. Probably the best thing we can do is help these other countries get vaccines so they can slow the spread and the development of new variants.
   12712. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 17, 2021 at 01:00 PM (#6013980)
I had my second Moderna yesterday at 4:30 pm. So far, some but not much arm pain.
   12713. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 17, 2021 at 02:49 PM (#6013997)
India with about 260,000 new cases today. They were at 35,000 cases a month ago. They're almost doubling the daily case count every 10 days right now. My friend who was planning to visit his family there next month just canceled his trip -- he his relatives in India didn't seem that concerned but his relatives in the US strongly advised him not to go.
   12714. Eudoxus Posted: April 17, 2021 at 03:59 PM (#6014015)
Yeah, I was on the anti-India-alarmism train for a while, but have officially debarked now. India is still running a bit under the current US per capita case rate (that should change within the next few days, though), but I don't see anywhere else in the world that has the same combination of alarming derivatives and alarming raw numbers. Brazil is showing some signs of peaking, Hungary at least seems to be holding pretty flat at its very high rate, but India is just going through the roof. The equivalent to the US January peak for India would be about a million new cases a day. That no longer seems out of the question to me. The small good news is that they've really pushed up their vaccination rate in the last few weeks, but they're only at about 7% even partly vaccinated.
   12715. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 18, 2021 at 12:03 AM (#6014101)
I bought October Widespread Panic tickets with that assumption.


Good lord. If you admit that kind of shamefulness on a public forum, WTF sort of evilness are you keeping hidden? Yankees fandom?

(Unless you're planning on toting a dirty bomb or a flamethrower to the gig, in which case, go with my blessing.)
   12716. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 18, 2021 at 12:19 AM (#6014103)
   12717. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 18, 2021 at 06:31 AM (#6014107)
Alaska will offer free Covid vaccine to tourists at airports beginning June 1st.


That's extraordinary, if true. I couldn't find this exact detail in the link, though, and the further-detail link seems to block me, possibly due to my VPN.

My wife is originally from Alaska and retains her American citizenship for now. Wondering if she turned up at Anchorage airport waving her British passport, could she get vaccinated . . .
   12718. Snowboy Posted: April 18, 2021 at 01:04 PM (#6014126)
CTV News - Alaska to offer tourists COVID-19 vaccines starting June 1
New York Times - Alaska to Offer Covid Vaccines at Airports "Airport vaccinations are just a flight away. To Alaska."
   12719. Snowboy Posted: April 18, 2021 at 01:12 PM (#6014128)
According to the CTV article, they'll start with a "soft rollout" at airports in late April for Alaskans, widening up to "anyone passing through" starting 01June.

Ottawa has been "recommending" that Canadians avoid "non-essential" foreign travel for more than a year. Wonder what border/health officials would say if I hopped a flight to Anchorage, and then on return "what was the purpose of your trip?" I said "to get the freaking vaccine!"
   12720. Snowboy Posted: April 18, 2021 at 01:20 PM (#6014129)
Also just fyi from the CTV article
About 40% of those eligible for a vaccine in Alaska, who are 16 or older, are fully vaccinated, according to the state health department...
Alaska was the first state to drop restrictions on who could get a COVID-19 vaccine when last month it opened eligibility to anyone 16 or older who lives or works in the state.
   12721. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 18, 2021 at 01:27 PM (#6014131)
That's extraordinary, if true.

Extraordinary, and odd. Why not send them to the places where the demand outstrips supply instead of giving them to people who can afford a plane ticket to get a shot.
   12722. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 18, 2021 at 01:41 PM (#6014134)
The CDC numbers just crossed the 50% threshold of adults having at least one shot. And seniors are now up to 81% on that metric, suggesting vaccine hesitancy may not be as big an issue as previously thought.
   12723. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 18, 2021 at 01:42 PM (#6014135)
[12721] It sounded like the purpose is to entice more tourists to visit Alaska.
   12724. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 18, 2021 at 02:12 PM (#6014138)
The CDC numbers just crossed the 50% threshold of adults having at least one shot. And seniors are now up to 81% on that metric, suggesting vaccine hesitancy may not be as big an issue as previously thought.
now imagine if donald trump was still on twitter and facebook ....
   12725. Snowboy Posted: April 18, 2021 at 02:17 PM (#6014139)
For context on my side "travel" comment above, Canada has not yet reached 900,000 fully vaccinated. 38M people, so about 2.3% fully done. All provinces have halted use of Astra-Zeneca under 55, some provinces are still only setting appointments for 70+ At this rate I might be eligible in 2024, so I joke about taking a flight to get the jab, rather than waiting that long to see my family again.
   12726. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 18, 2021 at 02:44 PM (#6014143)
Extraordinary, and odd. Why not send them to the places where the demand outstrips supply instead of giving them to people who can afford a plane ticket to get a shot.
Not that odd. Tourism is a significant aspect of Alaska’s economy, and it has taken a big hit. Their tourist season is considerably shorter than in the lower 48, and this looks like an effort to salvage something this year.
   12727. Tom Nawrocki Posted: April 18, 2021 at 03:41 PM (#6014151)
The number of people who (a) won't have gotten themselves vaccinated by June, (b) want to travel to Alaska, and (c) still want to get vaccinated at that point must be vanishingly small.
   12728. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 18, 2021 at 04:17 PM (#6014155)
Thanks for the additional info provided. I suppose I just hadn't internalised how close the US is to the point where everyone who wants a shot can get one (admittedly that being worryingly lower than the total US population, but . . .)

Alaska in June should be lovely. I visited in 2014 in late May and had an excellent time, though the heat was disturbing to the locals. Wealthy Europeans under 50 who are able to fly out might want to consider it; probably a lot more enjoyable this year than Italy, France, Spain, or Portugal. Even if it only brings forward their own vaccination by a matter of weeks, things like restaurants, movie theatres, and so on will also be far more 'normal' - while also being a little exotic.
   12729. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 18, 2021 at 05:08 PM (#6014157)
Harris County TX is opening 55,000 appointments/week to anyone over 16, and that's just the county system, not the city of Houston, pharmacies, hospitals and HMOs. Apparently the County is at 15% fully vaccinated.
   12730. Ron J Posted: April 18, 2021 at 05:31 PM (#6014164)
12725. Ontario resident here. Getting my first shot next Sunday but I'm a 65 year old diabetic.

Pharmacy programs have started, but one of the providers isn't able to deliver what they've promised. Seriously, vaccine tourism makes sense to me.
   12731. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 18, 2021 at 05:51 PM (#6014167)
[12727] I thought the intended target was wealthy foreigners from countries with poor vaccine access.
   12732. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 18, 2021 at 06:11 PM (#6014170)
The number of people who (a) won't have gotten themselves vaccinated by June, (b) want to travel to Alaska, and (c) still want to get vaccinated at that point must be vanishingly small.
There may be a symbolic, at-least-do-something aspect. The Governor is a politician, after all. It may also be designed to create an environment that would make easing other restrictions more likely. The federal government ban on cruise ships is reported to be having a significant economic effect.
   12733. Srul Itza At Home Posted: April 18, 2021 at 08:22 PM (#6014192)
I got the second Moderna two hours ago. We will see how it goes
   12734. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 18, 2021 at 09:52 PM (#6014203)
There are articles like this all over the country. Vaccine demand is weak and waning in rural area.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/health/2021/04/16/iowa-covid-19-vaccine-demand-drops-some-counties-metro-still-strong/7236074002/

Some Iowa counties decline state vaccine supplies as demand wanes

'We just don't have arms to put it in right now.'


Four months ago, the select people who qualified for COVID-19 vaccines were in a pitched race to secure the precious medicine.

Now, less than two weeks after eligibility expanded to everyone 16 or older, some counties are declining their full allocations of vaccine in the hopes that the doses will go to places where there's higher demand.

Winnebago County Public Health asked for only half of the 200 doses the state allocated to the county, Clinical Manager Allison Rice said. It's one of 21 counties that declined a full allotment of vaccines due to lack of immediate demand, Iowa Public Health Department officials said this week.

"We just don't have arms to put it in right now," Rice said.

It doesn't mean the counties are barren of vaccines — these allocations don't account for doses sent directly to pharmacies by the federal government — but it demonstrates the uneven demand across Iowa.

Winnebago County is now shifting its strategy from making vaccines available for residents clamoring for the potentially pandemic-curing medicine to reaching people who were hesitant or otherwise couldn't make it to a clinic, Rice said.

----

Rice wasn't shocked that her county of about 10,000 residents has apparently hit a tipping point in supply outstripping demand.

About 3,800 people there have either started or been completely vaccinated. The most common vaccine formulas, manufactured by Moderna and Pfizer, require two doses, taken weeks apart. People 18 or older qualify for any of the approved vaccines, while only Pfizer is approved for people 16 and 17.

Webster County health officials also declined some of the doses the state offered. Local drugstores, which are receiving federal vaccine supplies, are meeting local demand, so the health department is shifting to outreach, Webster County Health Department Executive Director Kari Prescott said.

She expects demand to fluctuate in coming weeks, with more people rolling up their sleeves as they see friends' and neighbors' reactions. While a 70% vaccination rate tops her wish list, she's aiming now for 50% or 55%, she said. About 15,300 residents in the county, home to nearly 36,000 people, have been vaccinated or have received at least one dose.

"The vaccine is safe, and we highly recommend people getting vaccinated with the vaccine that's readily available in their community," she said.


   12735. RJ in TO Posted: April 18, 2021 at 11:12 PM (#6014207)
Ontario has now opened up appointments to anyone 40 and older for the Astra-Zeneca, officially starting Tuesday, but you can book starting today. So that's good, in that it'll help roll out the vaccinations more quickly, and bad, in that I can all but guarantee the province gave more or less no warning to the pharmacies and doctors who will be handling the vaccinations.
   12736. RJ in TO Posted: April 18, 2021 at 11:29 PM (#6014208)
12725. Ontario resident here. Getting my first shot next Sunday but I'm a 65 year old diabetic.
I'm actually quite surprised to hear it's taken you this long to get an appointment. Given your age and medical condition, I had assumed you'd have been able to get an appointment weeks ago.
   12737. Srul Itza At Home Posted: April 19, 2021 at 01:21 AM (#6014213)
Vaccine demand is weak and waning in rural area.


Maybe not just rural.

For my first shot, there was a long line to register, and another line for getting the shot.

For my second shot, I arrived early, no line to register so they took me right away, and only three people in front of me for shots.

Both shots at the same CVS, at Ala Moana Shopping Center in Honolulu.

Definite different vibe.
   12738. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: April 19, 2021 at 05:09 AM (#6014215)
Meanwhile in Spain, they're still working on folks over 80.
   12739. Tony S Posted: April 19, 2021 at 08:09 AM (#6014223)
Vaccine demand is weak and waning in rural area.


I can name several people in my area (western MD), who are still waiting for their first shot, who would just like to strangle those who (a) have easy access to vaccines, and (b) won't get them.

Re-opening should have been tied to vaccination. We get 20% of the residents vaccinated, we open to this level; we reach 40%, we open up some more, etc.
   12740. FrankM Posted: April 19, 2021 at 08:39 AM (#6014224)
Ontario has now opened up appointments to anyone 40 and older for the Astra-Zeneca, officially starting Tuesday, but you can book starting today. So that's good, in that it'll help roll out the vaccinations more quickly, and bad, in that I can all but guarantee the province gave more or less no warning to the pharmacies and doctors who will be handling the vaccinations.

Why do they need a lot of warning? They have the same vaccine stock on hand they had before. Booking an appointment is booking an appointment.
   12741. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 19, 2021 at 08:40 AM (#6014225)
The average age of a COVID case in Florida was 36 this past week. The trend since early February has been 40, 40, 40, 39, 39, 38, 38, 37, 37, 36, 36. So hopefully that trend will continue and we'll see the average go down to 35 this week.

Total # of cases were down from the prior week but still above the trough from mid-March.

This was the first week since early April 2020 that there were fewer than 100 cases in the 90+ age group.

The total percentage of 60+ cases has held steady at 12-13% for the past 3 weeks, and 70+ cases is holding steady around 5%. That's a significant decline from the winter peak when it was 20-22% (60+) and 10-12% (70+), and is almost certainly a result of vaccinations.

I would feel better if we were still seeing that percentage decline rather than flattening out, or if total cases were declining while those percentages were flat. But at this point anyone in that age group who wants to be vaccinated in Florida should have been.
   12742. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: April 19, 2021 at 02:09 PM (#6014264)
Get my second Pfizer on Saturday. First one I travelled to Sidney, Ohio, 80ish miles north of me which was about the only place in the state that had vaccines available. Second appointment was originally there also, however, over the last few weeks i keep checking the cvs vaccine site, first finding one in Eaton (around 60 miles, then Dayton, 45-50 miles, then Morraine, 40 miles. And, finally, on Sunday, I tried again, put in my zip code, and there were two appointment times available at my local cvs! I now just have to go about 2 miles. JOY
   12743. Srul Itza Posted: April 19, 2021 at 02:20 PM (#6014266)
20 hours after second Moderna shot. So far, no major side effects, but definitely a little off. Not so much that I can't work.

I got both shots from a CVS just a mile from where I live. For the second shot, I walked there and back.

   12744. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: April 19, 2021 at 03:17 PM (#6014276)
Nice Srul. the walk to my local cvs is uphill, both ways. So, I will be driving. :-)
   12745. Srul Itza Posted: April 19, 2021 at 06:40 PM (#6014310)
24 hours after second Moderna. Slight headache, very slight chills (ameliorated by wearing a coat and tie today for Zoom hearings), temperature up 1/2 degree from my normal (which is less than 98.6), and feeling a little fuzzy. But manageable, all of it, so far.

   12746. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 19, 2021 at 07:52 PM (#6014319)
That's about what I had with Moderna Srul, though maybe less of a temp boost, and still under 98.6. Don;t recall if I took acetaminophen or not, but certainly nothing to complain on.
   12747. Random Transaction Generator Posted: April 19, 2021 at 11:16 PM (#6014364)
Ontario has now opened up appointments to anyone 40 and older for the Astra-Zeneca, officially starting Tuesday, but you can book starting today.

My wife just scheduled us for our first shot (AstraZeneca) on April 30th. It's in the middle of the day and 75 minutes away by car, but I have no problem with booking a vacation day to get this done. My wife is asthmatic, so she's been living in (a small amount of) fear for a while. She found the appointment by getting a tip from a friend in a neighbouring town who saw that a hole-in-the-wall pharmacy (instead of the big chain ones) was taking phone reservations.
   12748. RJ in TO Posted: April 19, 2021 at 11:36 PM (#6014367)
That's great, RTG. We've managed to book an appointment for tomorrow morning, and it's the first time I've ever been excited about someone stabbing me with a needle.
   12749. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: April 20, 2021 at 09:18 AM (#6014394)
I got two Moderna shots with no side effects beyond a slight tenderness in the shoulder, but one of my friends was totally wasted for 36 hours by her second shot. OTOH by the second morning her symptoms were pretty much all gone. I'm getting the feeling that who gets the side effects and who doesn't is almost totally random, although I've heard that younger people are more likely to get them
   12750. bunyon Posted: April 20, 2021 at 09:25 AM (#6014395)
Yeah, it's random with, maybe, a bit of a preference for younger people getting bad side effects. But that preference isn't enough to rely on. It's really pretty much the same with who gets "bad" covid. I mean, strong preference for older folks but, among the younger, healthier patients, some have two hours of sniffles and some die. No real way of knowing.

Viruses and the immune system is chaos, basically.
   12751. SoSH U at work Posted: April 20, 2021 at 09:43 AM (#6014402)
I got my first shot last week, the Pfizer. I was sicker than I've been in a long time the following day. Given the second shot is reportedly the one that leads to more side effects, I'm not looking forward to May 4.

   12752. bunyon Posted: April 20, 2021 at 09:56 AM (#6014407)
I've yet to talk to anyone who had a bad reaction on the first who got hit again on the second. Anecdotal and small sample but I hope the trend holds for you.

   12753. SoSH U at work Posted: April 20, 2021 at 10:22 AM (#6014409)
That's encouraging to hear.
   12754. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 20, 2021 at 11:33 AM (#6014416)
2nd Pfizer about 15 minutes ago. No side effects after the first; here's hoping for a repeat.
   12755. Eudoxus Posted: April 20, 2021 at 11:39 AM (#6014418)
April 15: 758 -> 745; 1.7% decrease
April 16: 745 -> 741; 0.5% decrease
April 17: 741 -> 742; 0.1% increase
April 18: 742 -> 737; 0.7% decrease
April 19: 737 -> 736; 0.1% decrease

Still trending downward, but slowly. The vaccinated portion of the population is increasing at something like 0.6% a day, so the decline is lagging a bit behind the vaccination increase. Which may mean we've seen the bulk of the impact of heavily vaccinating the older population. I had hoped the numbers would be lower as a result of that, but hopefully we keep trending downward. My optimistic prediction is that the death rate falls under 700/day within the next week.

And some current per capita death rates (with last week's numbers in parentheses):

Taiwan: 0
UK: 0.37 [0.55]
Indonesia: 0.47
India: 0.97 [0.54]
US: 2.22 [2.3]
Germany: 2.82 [2.4]
France: 4.46
Italy: 6.27 [7.6]
Czechia: 6.9 [10.2]
Colombia: 7.23
Brazil: 13.4 [14.6]
Poland: 13.8 [13]
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 19.75 [23]
Hungary: 24.8 [25.3]

India yesterday had fewer new cases than the day before for the first time in April. Probably a fluke, but at least briefly the second derivative is negative.
   12756. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 20, 2021 at 12:18 PM (#6014419)

India yesterday had fewer new cases than the day before for the first time in April. Probably a fluke, but at least briefly the second derivative is negative.


Monday always seems to be a day with less reporting in India for whatever reason. April 12 and April 5 also saw declines from the prior day, followed by big increases on Tuesday.
   12757. Eudoxus Posted: April 20, 2021 at 12:30 PM (#6014420)
Oh, you're right. I saw the Monday dip on March 29, but missed the April 5 and April 12 dips. I think the steepness of the graph got in the way of my reading it correctly. There was a slightly negative second derivative in the rolling seven-day average of new cases yesterday, though, which is independent of the typical Monday dip. Not counting on its lasting through today, though.
   12758. Lassus Posted: April 20, 2021 at 12:45 PM (#6014422)
Eudoxus - I wanted to thank you for these updates, which I greatly look forward to.

   12759. Eudoxus Posted: April 20, 2021 at 12:48 PM (#6014423)
It's one of the worst world events of our lifetimes, but it can at least have a box score that we can pour over and analyze.
   12760. base ball chick Posted: April 20, 2021 at 12:58 PM (#6014425)
some not good news out of, natcherilly, tejas

they found a new variant called BV (for brazos valley) that is something that will need a booster because of something about the spike protein being not found by the vaccine antibodies

they best get working on that booster

i had the pfizer and wasn't sick at all, arm sore though. shrug. kidz had mildly sore arms. Husband felt icky for about 18 hrs then was fine. he went to work anyway
   12761. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 20, 2021 at 01:13 PM (#6014426)


Still trending downward, but slowly. The vaccinated portion of the population is increasing at something like 0.6% a day, so the decline is lagging a bit behind the vaccination increase. Which may mean we've seen the bulk of the impact of heavily vaccinating the older population. I had hoped the numbers would be lower as a result of that, but hopefully we keep trending downward. My optimistic prediction is that the death rate falls under 700/day within the next week.


The death reporting curve is going to be less steep curve than case reporting, almost by definition. If 50,000 people get infected on any particular day, the resulting deaths will stretch out over 4-6 weeks (at least), and the reporting of those deaths will probably stretch out over 6-8 weeks. There also may be some capacity constraints in the reporting of deaths -- i.e. from the September trough to the January peak, daily cases increased by nearly 8x, but deaths only increased by 4-5x. Maybe some of that increase in cases was due to more young people getting infected/tested, so you wouldn't expect to see the full 8x increase in deaths. But I suspect the reporting bottleneck is a bigger issue. I think that, combined with vaccines, was one reason that the death reporting curve has continued to trend downward long after cases plateaued.

It's always hard to separate the different effects. I can probably do it for Florida since they break out cases and deaths by age; if I have time this week I'll try to do that.
   12762. RJ in TO Posted: April 20, 2021 at 01:25 PM (#6014427)
Some limited details on the variant BBC has mentioned are available here. At least based on the limited information, it doesn't sound like it's that different from some of the other variants, in that you would still expect to get some protection from the existing vaccines.

At the moment, they only have one confirmed carrier of the variant, so there's no understanding of whether or not there's been any spread of it.
   12763. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 20, 2021 at 01:27 PM (#6014428)
they found a new variant called BV (for brazos valley) that is something that will need a booster because of something about the spike protein being not found by the vaccine antibodies

Leave it to the Aggies!
   12764. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 20, 2021 at 01:40 PM (#6014431)
I love the data posted by both Eudoxus and Dave. Thanks for posting.

My wife got fairly sick after her second Pfizer, and the lymph node in her armpit on the side of the shot was swollen for nearly a week, which is supposedly a common side effect. I'll be getting my second Pfizer on Saturday.

Like RJ in TO said, this is the first time I've been excited to be vaccinated.
   12765. bunyon Posted: April 20, 2021 at 02:14 PM (#6014437)
Two things are true about variants:

1) The danger of any particular variant is overhyped and exaggerated by a media that has become addicted to fear and doom.

2) Sooner or later there will be a variant against which current vaccines are ineffective.


It's hard to push back against the fear-mongering and doomsaying but reports of variants, so far, have been handled terribly. It's hard to push back because the underlying truth that the longer we let the virus percolate in the population, the higher the chances for a really bad mutation. Places with few social distance restrictions and low vaccine rate are a perfect incubator of such a variant.
   12766. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 20, 2021 at 02:34 PM (#6014446)
WaPo
Most Americans who haven’t received the coronavirus vaccine say they’re unlikely to get the shots, according to an Axios-Ipsos poll released Monday, indicating the country’s mass immunization campaign could soon reach its peak.
Of the unvaccinated adults, 2 in 3 told pollsters they were either “not likely at all” or “not very likely” to get the injections. That proportion has remained level for more than month, polling shows.
Meanwhile, just 14 percent of unvaccinated Americans said they were likely to get the vaccine.
In total, 44 percent of respondents said they hadn’t received the vaccine while 56 percent reported receiving at least one shot, according to the poll.

Full poll here
   12767. Lassus Posted: April 20, 2021 at 02:36 PM (#6014448)
Humans just kinda deserve this, it seems.
   12768. bunyon Posted: April 20, 2021 at 02:48 PM (#6014449)
Yeah, decades of anti-science propaganda have lead to the start of a couple of decades of backsliding across the board. Discouraging but hardly unexpected.
   12769. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 20, 2021 at 02:49 PM (#6014450)
It's one of the worst world events of our lifetimes, but it can at least have a box score that we can pour over and analyze.


I am by no means science-oriented, but I've long found disease in general & pandemics in particular utterly fascinating & have read any number of nonacademic volumes on the subject. This one's gonna make for one helluva book. Make that many helluva books.
   12770. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 20, 2021 at 02:51 PM (#6014452)
If Americans don’t want to get vaccinated, there are plenty of people in other countries who will gladly take those doses. Sigh.
   12771. base ball chick Posted: April 20, 2021 at 02:54 PM (#6014455)
bunyon

its like the old story of the boy who cried wolf. because one of these days it IS gonna be a wolf and like a monstrous prehistoric wolf with gigantic teeth

as for me i am not stupid enough to even think of believing that with that many unvaccinated people we are ever going to be back to precovid. and i am not going anywhere in any inside space except the kroger or places that there are other people i don't live with without a good face mask. if the right wingers wanna get sick and die, that is their bidness, and if they kill people by giving them the virus because they couldn't be bothered to get a vaccine, well, they will just have to figure out how to justify it to their god on judgement day
   12772. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 20, 2021 at 03:04 PM (#6014459)
if the right wingers wanna get sick and die, that is their bidness,


Fingers crossed.
   12773. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 20, 2021 at 03:13 PM (#6014463)
I am by no means science-oriented, but I've long found disease in general & pandemics in particular utterly fascinating & have read any number of nonacademic volumes on the subject. This one's gonna make for one helluva book. Make that many helluva books.
if there's one thing i've learned, it's this: keep umbilical cords away from the mineral oil
   12774. bunyon Posted: April 20, 2021 at 03:16 PM (#6014464)
It isn't just covid. Several diseases that the "first world" had defeated are resurging and climate change is driving tropical diseases farther north and south. Climate change itself is just beginning to have social and political effects and those are not going to lead to increased stability and prosperity.

BBC, you're correct. We are never becoming fully post-covid. We probably had a chance but the reluctance to vaccinate (which is far from a US only problem) eliminates whatever chance we had.
   12775. Mike A Posted: April 20, 2021 at 03:32 PM (#6014467)
Anti-vaccination movements have been around since vaccines, well, started. Violent riots were held in Britain in the 1850s when the country made vaccines mandatory. Two large anti-vaccination leagues sprung up in Britain and America in the 1860/1870s. To note: "The Leicester Demonstration March of 1885 was one of the most notorious anti-vaccination demonstrations. There, 80,000-100,000 anti-vaccinators led an elaborate march, complete with banners, a child’s coffin, and an effigy of (Edward) Jenner."

I saw a flyer from the late 1800s that called vaccines 'a menace to personal liberty.' The more things change...

I think a lot of the modern hesitancy can be traced to Andrew Wakefield and his fraudulent paper linking autism to the MMR vaccine. That, coupled with today's right-wing media 'just asking questions' about the safety of the COVID vaccine has put us in a bit of a pickle when it comes to herd immunity and dodging variants. That's frustrating.
   12776. bunyon Posted: April 20, 2021 at 04:06 PM (#6014473)
Anti-vaccine movements through much of the 20th century were fringe and small enough not to be much of a hazard. As you say, Wakefield brought them back with a vengeance.
   12777. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 20, 2021 at 04:27 PM (#6014477)
As you say, Wakefield brought them back with a vengeance.


Wakefield, Schilling, Huff ... these ex-ballplayers should sit the #### down & shut the #### up.
   12778. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 20, 2021 at 04:51 PM (#6014480)
It's kinda hard to blame Wakefield for wanting vengeance, given that awful contract.
   12779. GregD Posted: April 20, 2021 at 06:42 PM (#6014490)
Anti-vaccine movements through much of the 20th century were fringe and small enough not to be much of a hazard. As you say, Wakefield brought them back with a vengeance.
serious enough that city police had to cordon off neighborhoods and raid houses to catch people refusing them and force the vaccines on them
   12780. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 20, 2021 at 08:09 PM (#6014507)
Meanwhile, just 14 percent of unvaccinated Americans said they were likely to get the vaccine.


This is wrong. It's 14% of Americans are both unvaccinated and said they were very likely or somewhat likely to get the vaccine according to the poll. Since 46% are unvaccinated according to that poll, that means 14/46 = 30% of unvaccinated Americans said they were likely to get the vaccine.
   12781. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 21, 2021 at 08:19 AM (#6014596)
Peru was one of the hardest-hit countries in the world in 2020 (by excess deaths). Guess what? It's one of the hardest hit yet again. No sign of herd immunity yet.

Financial Times has it as .45% of the population now dead, and there is usually a lag in their data. Peru is much younger than the US, so age-adjusted roughly speaking you'd multiply that number by 2x or 2.5x, putting the IFR there (with likely poor healthcare, on average) at well above 1% once you factor in timing delays and the likely significant number of people who haven't had the virus yet.

No herd immunity yet in Peru, which means there isn't herd immunity anywhere, and very likely it will be impossible in large enough populations without a high percentage being vaccinated.
   12782. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 21, 2021 at 08:47 AM (#6014597)
People here probably already know this, but on a worldwide basis new cases are at all time high right now, by 7-day average or otherwise. It's not at all unlikely that in a couple weeks we could hit new heights for reported deaths as well. If the world follows the US/europe, probably excess deaths were highest in January, and we might not match those this month.

Worldwide vaccinations are going to be critical or this thing will never end.
   12783. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: April 21, 2021 at 09:33 AM (#6014601)
If the only way this ever ends is ~70% of adults getting vaccinated worldwide (EDIT - or even tougher, ~70% adults vaccinated before there's a vaccine resistant variant), then I guess it will never end, correct?

So, then what? Seriously asking what people think, not trying to troll here.
   12784. bunyon Posted: April 21, 2021 at 09:45 AM (#6014603)
I suspect that we could wipe Covid out if enough people took the vaccine. However, that doesn't appear to be happening. Too many folks in rich countries won't and poor/underdeveloped countries can't get it to them.

So vaccine resistant variants will pop up time to time and the vaccine makers will need to redo the vaccine. Fortunately, mRNA vaccines are ideal for this and my understanding is that safety won't have to be redone each time.

We'll get to a new normal where covid monitoring is an important part of public health and when we spend money and take it seriously, we'll be okay. When we don't, we won't.
   12785. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 21, 2021 at 09:52 AM (#6014605)
Yeah what 12784 says seems not that unlikely. A lifetime of covid vaccinations in countries like the US. Hopefully these vaccinations will get better and last longer, and it won't be such a big deal to stay vaccinated like we do for certain other diseases.

It's really way too early to say though.

India is having a true crisis right now, with potentially 10x or more as many deaths as are being reported. They could be having 20,000 deaths a day right now.

   12786. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: April 21, 2021 at 09:52 AM (#6014606)
Maybe we need to think outside the box in encouraging people to get vaccinated:

New Orleans partnered with a bar in a "shots for shots" promotion.
...
In Louisiana, state health officials are aiming for smaller scale events in neighborhoods, churches and community centers — “places that people feel comfortable,” said Joseph Kanter, the state’s health officer. That includes the Dragon’s Den, outside of the French Quarter in New Orleans, where a mobile vaccination station dispensed Johnson & Johnson vaccine to customers who could then go inside for a different kind of shot.


Unfortunately, that was the J&J, which is now paused ...

Link
   12787. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 21, 2021 at 09:58 AM (#6014607)
Too many folks in rich countries won't and poor/underdeveloped countries can't get it to them.

The problem with poor countries seems like it will be attacked. Once the vaccine has been developed, and obviously it (well, they) has been, this is right down Bill Gates's alley.
   12788. bunyon Posted: April 21, 2021 at 10:16 AM (#6014612)
Unfortunately, that was the J&J, which is now paused ...

They could spin this: The FDA's Deep State operatives don't want you to get this vaccine! Have you asked yourself why? Come get the banned vaccine and show the Deep State who is really in charge.
   12789. bunyon Posted: April 21, 2021 at 10:17 AM (#6014613)
The problem with poor countries seems like it will be attacked. Once the vaccine has been developed, and obviously it (well, they) has been, this is right down Bill Gates's alley.

It will be attacked, but it's foolish to assume all the folks in those poorer countries are progressive thinking folks. There will be plenty of anti-vaxxers there, too.
   12790. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: April 21, 2021 at 10:21 AM (#6014615)
[12786] Yeah, the J&J shot doesn’t require freezing, which makes it better for setting up distribution centers in more places. It reminds me of how when I was in college, they’d set up a flu shot station for a couple days each year. I still can’t get over the fact that they paused the vaccine over a literal less than 1 in a million side effect (and I realize it could be more like 1 in 100k for women under age 50, but subgroup analysis just makes the decision worse since the risk was 0 for men and for women over 50, so they could have just paused it for women under 50, eliminated what little risk it had and still made use of the vaccines.)
   12791. base ball chick Posted: April 21, 2021 at 10:29 AM (#6014619)
there are a lot of americans who either don't care or are glad that covid is killing millions of non-americans like Those Icky Indians/Peruvians/Brazilians (they aren't Real People - this is very in line with the teachings of the Christ whose teaching was - step over/on your sick/dying fellow human being) and don't care that the virus is killing their OWN people too

i really truly do not get the objection to vaccines. i could respect it if those folks also refused any kind of medical care for any reason ever, and leaving everything up to their god, but this is just not something i get

i can't see any way this epidemic ever ends, like EVER, because unlike smallpox or measles, this virus mutates quickly. and too many people refuse to get vaccinated

i will get any new shot every 6 months or year or whatever is necessary. just like i get the flu shot.

i personally think CoB has a great idea
   12792. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 21, 2021 at 10:30 AM (#6014620)
If the only way this ever ends is ~70% of adults getting vaccinated worldwide (EDIT - or even tougher, ~70% adults vaccinated before there's a vaccine resistant variant), then I guess it will never end, correct?

So, then what? Seriously asking what people think, not trying to troll here.
what makes covid so dangerous is that we (both individually and as a society) have no built in immunity to it. that meant that it spread rapidly through populations and then when people contracted it, our immune systems had no idea how to fight it.

both of things will become less and less true over time, and so, while covid might never end, *this* way of life very likely will.
   12793. base ball chick Posted: April 21, 2021 at 10:38 AM (#6014622)
2. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 21, 2021 at 10:30 AM (#6014620)

what makes covid so dangerous is that we (both individually and as a society) have no built in immunity to it. that meant that it spread rapidly through populations and then when people contracted it, our immune systems had no idea how to fight it.

both of things will become less and less true over time, and so, while covid might never end, *this* way of life very likely will


- and how many centuries is that gonna take? people without vaccines or who haven't gotten it before are just as at risk as when it came out 1-2 years ago
   12794. Eudoxus Posted: April 21, 2021 at 11:10 AM (#6014630)
Some actual numbers on vaccine efficacy in the US (taken from this twitter thread, originally from the CDC. As of April 13, there have been 5814 confirmed COVID cases among fully vaccinated people, resulting in 396 hospitalizations and 74 deaths. A few thoughts on the numbers:

-As of April 13, there were about 75 million fully vaccinated people in the US. So that's about 77/million COVID cases, 5.3/million hospitalizations, and 1/million deaths. But that's pretty meaningless because (a) it doesn't account for the changing number of vaccinated people and (b) it doesn't give any comparison to the unvaccinated population. So let's see if we can improve the analysis a bit.

-The fully vaccinated population has increased more-or-less linearly from 0 on January 13 to 75 million on April 13. During that time, there have been about 8.3 million COVID cases logged. Just using the mean number of vaccinated people as an approximation, we get that 5814 of those cases get attributed to 37.5 million people while the other, well, 8.3 million get attributed to the remainder of the population. Assuming we can just chop the under-15 population out as more-or-less COVID-free, that remainder is about 233 million. So we get a COVID case rate of 154/million for the vaccinated population versus about 35,000/million for the unvaccinated population, making the unvaccinated COVID case risk about 225 times higher than the vaccinated risk.

-Some shortcomings of that analysis: doesn't account for timelag between vaccination and full immunity (that will slightly improve the protection rate) or the timelag between case detection and case reporting (that will slightly harm the protection rate); doesn't account for the changing population COVID rates from January to April (this will substantially harm the protection rate, since most of the cases came when most of the population was unvaccinated); doesn't try to track different vaccination rates and different case rates for different parts of the population (this probably harms the protection rate, probably non-trivially). Doing things right requires (a) a bunch of data I don't have and (b) some calculus I don't feel like doing.

-But eyeballing things, I'd say that the numbers support something like: you're 1%-2% as likely to contract COVID after being fully vaccinated as you were before being vaccinated.

-6.8% of the reported breakthrough COVID cases among the fully vaccinated lead to hospitalization. That's actually higher than the general population, at least by the numbers I found. (Texas reports about 3% of COVID cases leading to hospitalization, for example). And 1.3% of the breakthrough cases lead to death, which again is a bit higher than the general population. (The US has been running deaths right about 1% of reported cases). My best guess is that that's best explained by some under-reporting of breakthrough cases. If that's right, adjust the above eyeball estimate to something like 2%-4% as likely to contract COVID. That's on the assumption that the vaccination doesn't particularly protect against severe cases -- if it does protect better against severe cases, it might be more like 10% as likely to get COVID after vaccination.

-Very crude estimate for deaths: let's start counting one month after vaccination, to allow for a month for cases to proceed to death. From February 13 to April 13 there were about 80,000 reported COVID deaths in the US. The average number of people fully vaccinated a month prior to those endpoints is about 18 million. So that's about 4 deaths/million among the vaccinated, and 320 deaths/million among the unvaccinated, so the death rate among the vaccinated was something like 1.25% that of the vaccinated. Throw in all of the above caveats, and my best guess is the real number (to the extent that there is a well-defined real number) is somewhere in the 1%-5% range.

All in all, I'd say it's encouraging news. I suspect this means that in the "never ends" scenario, we settle in somewhere around 200 deaths/day for the country, which is about what we get in a baddish flu season.

   12795. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 21, 2021 at 11:23 AM (#6014635)
- and how many centuries is that gonna take? people without vaccines or who haven't gotten it before are just as at risk as when it came out 1-2 years ago
there is no upper limit to the amount of covid vaccine that will eventually be produced, and there are immense incentives (capitalistic, humanitarian, and otherwise) to vaccinate as many people as possible.
   12796. Biscuit_pants Posted: April 21, 2021 at 12:08 PM (#6014651)
there are a lot of americans who either don't care or are glad that covid is killing millions of non-americans like Those Icky Indians/Peruvians/Brazilians (they aren't Real People - this is very in line with the teachings of the Christ whose teaching was - step over/on your sick/dying fellow human being) and don't care that the virus is killing their OWN people too


I don't think this is helpful and if anything will cause the people not wanting to get vaccinated to dig their heels in more. Attributing motives and then asking questions is usually what makes people not want to do things rather than change their minds. If anything we should appeal to the people who do not want to get vaccinated non-politically otherwise the vaccine becomes more political rather than less so.
   12797. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: April 21, 2021 at 12:49 PM (#6014663)
People seem relatively optimistic that we can vaccinate 70% of the world (although it will take awhile). I haven’t seen any good info on durability of immunity for people that have had COVID though. How long the median/average protection lasts will go a long way towards determining whether COVID sticks around or mostly fizzles out. The other big factor, IMO, is whether a truly vaccine resistant variant emerges in the short to medium term. The current variants are bad, but the vaccines are still quite effective. If that changes then the math changes dramatically.
   12798. base ball chick Posted: April 21, 2021 at 12:57 PM (#6014671)
Biscuit_pants Posted: April 21, 2021 at 12:08 PM (#6014651)

I don't think this is helpful and if anything will cause the people not wanting to get vaccinated to dig their heels in more. Attributing motives and then asking questions is usually what makes people not want to do things rather than change their minds. If anything we should appeal to the people who do not want to get vaccinated non-politically otherwise the vaccine becomes more political rather than less so


- it isn't political

there are lots of people who are not White republicans who refuse to get vaccinated, in spite of their own risk and the risk they put on their family members and friends

the ones i have talked to, and there are plenty, are not concerned at ALL that they could catch it and give it to others. i have read all KINDS of "explanations" and they are all basically - "my freedom" or "the gubmint is trying to poison us" or "what virus" or it is not physically possible for me to catch it seeing as how i never got smallpox or something like that, or, as some atlantans i read about said "it's not a problem for our demographic"

there is a complete lack of giving any f***s whatsoever about the effects of their refusal on other human beings. and this is from every ethnicity/political group/religious belief people whose comments i have read. i do not have any idea where to go from here

if you know of other reasons or other approaches, please educate me
   12799. Biscuit_pants Posted: April 21, 2021 at 01:16 PM (#6014692)
it isn't political
I do believe it's political, most polls and studies show that, with Trump supporters being most likely not to get the vaccine. We need to stop that line of thought.

I don't think we will move the bar at all by saying it is because of politics/racism/religion/whatever. In fact I think drawing the conversation AWAY from those things will get some of those people to listen.

In my life when dealing with difficult or obstinate people the only way I can ever get them to see things another way is to have them walk their own reasoning towards a topic. If I do any of the talking it goes into defense mode. Does it always work? No, but it works a hell of a lot more than starting with "You're/you <insert blanket reasoning> that's why you <insert attribute>"

I am frustrated too, and want to start the blame game so it gives me an outlet but every time I do on this topic I think of what I heard a Dr say early in this crap. They said that with every new case that came in they caught themselves finding reasons why they got it, they did not protect themselves, they got sloppy, they were not vigilant enough. They said they had to change that line of thought because it clouded the issue and the goal. Finding out what groups are not getting vaccinated is helpful to figure out how to get those people engaged, not helpful when all we want to do is to point fingers.

   12800. base ball chick Posted: April 21, 2021 at 01:23 PM (#6014696)
filp
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