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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 13254 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   12901. SoSH U at work Posted: April 26, 2021 at 09:20 PM (#6015596)
Flip.
   12902. Snowboy Posted: April 26, 2021 at 09:20 PM (#6015597)
flip
   12903. Snowboy Posted: April 26, 2021 at 09:21 PM (#6015598)
flippin' coke to SOSH
   12904. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 26, 2021 at 09:36 PM (#6015599)
sigh. I'm amazed that I have to explain this, I really am.

in the words of a topless, three-nippled fortune teller, "understanding can be reached only after confrontation."
I have noticed in the past week that basically every post here post-vaccination discusses significant side effects. I already found it a bit odd that I didn't have any at all. so I noted that it's a weird place to be - the side effects are briefly unpleasant, but they are a very good sign.

this has a very different tone from what you first wrote. it's bland and inoffensive, and not at all insufferable.
I don't know what no side effects mean, I truly don't.
it doesn't mean anything. some people get covid and never notice it; others get it and suffocate painfully in their own bathrooms. it's random...or if it's not random, it's the result of some as of yet unexplained phenomenon.
then I recalled the Charlie Brown example, because I felt kind of like he did. everyone else gets something that is a net positive, and I didn't. I got the symptoms equivalent of, well, "a rock."
the charlie brown from your example is self-deprecating. your use of that example is not; your use of it, by equating getting sick with getting a present and not getting sick with getting a rock for christmas, is reasonably read as a "humble-brag", making everyone on this board (and their close relatives) who did get sick into the punchline of your joke.

now, that may not have been your express-written intention (i know comedians work for years to understand these kinds of nuances, and you very clearly have not), but it does make you a much less sympathetic narrator. the fact that you often (pretend to?) appear oblivious to this effect does not help.

and sure, you might say 'that's reading too much into it' or 'that's not at all what i meant', which is why that's not how i responded, originally. to be clear, none of the above was worth commenting on, originally. but it did set the table for what came next. it primed your audience to dislike you.
and as many regulars here know - including you, if you wanted to be honest for just one shining moment - I regularly "sign off" on posts with a hash tag of whatever my closing thought is.

in this case, a non-lunatic would good-naturedly bust my chops with something like "um, that's an.... unfortunate hashtag choice."

and I'd reply, "oh, geesh, you got that right! #blush "

and then we got to that.
but "good-naturedly" is one of many skillsets you don't possess.
this is just not at all true, fwiw.

however, i have noticed along my various travels that there is a certain category of, let's call it, inauthentic smarminess, that sets me the #### off.

your posting style (this post of yours excepted; #inspirehope) tends to reek of inauthentic smarminess.
and if you for some reason still refuse to put me on "ignore,"

i've considered doing that a few times. i still might. i'm not sure. usually, it takes something specific for me to put someone on my ignore list ([12900] is a well-timed example of such a thing).
then please at least agree not to stalk and harass me in purely baseball threads as well.

this assumes that i care about you. i very much do not.
   12905. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 26, 2021 at 09:37 PM (#6015600)
jesus, that got out of hand.
   12906. Howie Menckel Posted: April 26, 2021 at 10:11 PM (#6015610)
thank you to 12900

still, I will exit this particular stage even for innocuous comments, for obvious reasons.

these sorts of threads are "killing fields" for bullies, and it seems to be the site's terms of engagement - which I am accepting.

if he chooses to turn his vitriol even to purely baseball-related threads, then I will have far better grounds to have my grievance addressed. the line of posters who quit on this sort of thread over the years due to a handful of posters is a very long and sometimes distinguished one. no shame in being in that company.

see you over on the baseball threads

#peaceout
   12907. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: April 27, 2021 at 05:01 AM (#6015624)
Our good friends at Stanford's Hoover Institute got in the door early with India's herd immunity. Apparently, vaccinating Indians would have been unethical because they all already had the virus.

From January:
India is reaching very high level of natural immunity
These considerations are not merely of theoretical interest because an enormous proportion of the Indian population has already been infected and recovered. While the officially reported figure of Covid cases in India is around 1.4 crore, mathematical models imply that more than 50 per cent of the Indian population may have developed natural immunity to the virus.

This fact is corroborated by serological tests for Covid antibodies carried out commercially on a large scale by Thyrocare. The founder of Thyrocare, Dr A. Velumani, says that “nature… already has immunised, freely, silently 70% Indians”.
   12908. Tony S Posted: April 27, 2021 at 08:07 AM (#6015626)
West Virginia seems to understand the value of herd immunity.


The state will give a $100 savings bond to each West Virginian from age 16-35 who takes a COVID-19 vaccine. West Virginia will use federal COVID-19 stimulus funding to finance the program.

Gov. Jim Justice announced the savings bond plan Monday in a bid to get more COVID-19 vaccine shots in arms in West Virginia. He said the plan had been "vetted [in] every way in the world." He added that he had made the decision "if we want to really move this needle, and we want to move it right now."

"I'm telling you, West Virginia, it's time to shut this thing down" unless state residents want COVID-19 to "linger forever."


Leadership matters.
   12909. SoSH U at work Posted: April 27, 2021 at 08:14 AM (#6015627)
West Virginia has been leading on vaccinations since the very beginning. Good for Justice.
   12910. Tony S Posted: April 27, 2021 at 08:19 AM (#6015630)
And on the other end of the spectrum...

The local government in India-administered Kashmir is contemplating setting up makeshift shelters and facilities for 600,000 Hindu pilgrims for the annual Amarnath pilgrimage, which it intends to host this summer despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.


I really feel bad for rational Indians stuck in that foolishness.
   12911. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: April 27, 2021 at 08:41 AM (#6015631)
From a Graun article this morning, unfortunately no link to the source:

The Covid positivity rate in Delhi continued to rise to over 35%, while in the city of Kolkata in West Bengal, a state which is still going through heavily criticised state elections, doctors reported it was almost 50%.


Speaking of foolishness (from the same article)

Many fear that the international aid being sent to India will not be enough to fill the acute gap in supplies of oxygen, which has been affecting hospitals in Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, despite the state’s chief minister insisting there was “no oxygen shortage” in Uttar Pradesh, and threatening private hospitals with criminal charges if they “spread rumours” about oxygen scarcity.
   12912. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 27, 2021 at 08:55 AM (#6015632)
West Virginia has been leading on vaccinations since the very beginning. Good for Justice.

WV now ranks near the bottom in terms of percentage of people vaccinated — 29% have gotten fully vaccinated, in line with the national average, but only 35% have gotten one dose. By comparison, the USA overall is at 42% and the leading state, NH, is at 60%. So it makes sense that WV is doing this.
   12913. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 27, 2021 at 09:04 AM (#6015633)
Meanwhile unhinged Tucker Carlson tells his viewers to confront people wearing masks outside, and to call the police or child protective services on people whose kids are wearing masks outside. While wearing masks outside probably does not provide that much protection if you’re not in a densely packed area, there is no real harm from doing so and Tucker’s rant seems like an invitation to get people killed by armed lunatics or by the cops themselves. I would send him the bill for the cost of every frivolous police report filed, and if anyone has their kids taken away over this bullshit I hope they sue Fox and Carlson.
   12914. Tony S Posted: April 27, 2021 at 09:10 AM (#6015635)
Meanwhile unhinged Tucker Carlson tells his viewers to confront people wearing masks outside, and to call the police or child protective services on people whose kids are wearing masks outside. While wearing masks outside probably does not provide that much protection if you’re not in a densely packed area, there is no real harm from doing so and Tucker’s rant seems like an invitation to get people killed by armed lunatics or by the cops themselves. I would send him the bill for the cost of every frivolous police report filed, and if anyone has their kids taken away over this bullshit I hope they sue Fox and Carlson.


So it's gone from "I should be free to possibly infect others if I wish" to "I demand that you possibly infect others". Freedum!

I don't wear masks outdoors myself, but I don't view others wearing them as some kind of existential threat or whatever is in these people's warped minds.

And this waste of DNA has a following. Can we get him a one-way ticket to Kolkata?



   12915. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 27, 2021 at 10:02 AM (#6015641)
On India, I saw a news piece that illustrated well the hazard that so many other nations were trying to avoid, particularly last year - medical services collapsing. The estimate was that 60-70% of the Covid deaths in India over the last few weeks were avoidable, had there been space in a hospital for the patients.

Sadly, this has become a real-life example of the counter-argument to "it's highly survivable and people should just take responsibility for their own health!" The pandemic is over a year old, so people presumably are very well aware of the need to shield themselves from infection if they're vulnerable. Masks are available. And yet, India is seeing hundreds of thousands of cases per day, and many of those dying could have lived, if only the medical system had capacity left, because highly infectious diseases are, you know, highly infectious.

One would also imagine that this means people in India are also dying from other causes at an accelerated rate, because, again, there are no beds free to treat them.
   12916. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 27, 2021 at 10:02 AM (#6015642)
I was wearing a mask outside yesterday while mowing the lawn.

Our good friends at Stanford's Hoover Institute got in the door early with India's herd immunity. Apparently, vaccinating Indians would have been unethical because they all already had the virus.

It's time for Stanford's woke alum to start pressuring the university to cut ties with Hoover.
   12917. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 27, 2021 at 10:07 AM (#6015644)
Nice. What's the preferred cooking method? I've eaten a ton of home cooked venison, don't think I've ever had any from a restaurant though.


Oh, we usually get the venison delivered, and then my wife advises: "If it's stew meat, then dry, season, pre-sear and treat like beef. If a whole haunch, cover in bacon lattice and roast like beef." We get through quite a bit of winters on venison stew.

When dining out, the Blackstone Steakhouses in Sweden do good reindeer when we were there, but I don't know if they have any relationship to the US locales with the same name.
   12918. JJ1986 Posted: April 27, 2021 at 10:14 AM (#6015647)
I never wear a mask when taking a walk or riding a bike, but we do wear masks when I take my kids to playgrounds.
   12919. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 27, 2021 at 10:22 AM (#6015648)
I wear a mask when I’m out walking unless there’s nobody around. I think it’s only required where social distancing isn’t possible but on a NYC sidewalk that happens frequently enough. If I’m running, bicycling or just sitting in the park by myself I will take it off.

At this point I can’t imagine confronting someone over their mask usage outdoors in either direction, unless they were unmasked and really getting in people’s faces. I have asked people to put masks on indoors a few times. These were people coughing indoors at the height of the pandemic in December/January.
   12920. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: April 27, 2021 at 10:50 AM (#6015651)
I seldom wear a mask outside, unless I know I'm going to be around a significant number of people. I go out walking every morning to cover about 5 miles, but I'm usually home by 10am, and since people are still mostly working remotely, the streets are quiet. Parts of the centre of the city have signs up to wear masks between 10am and 7pm, so I generally wear a mask if I walk through those, and the area outside the main train station has a similar set that run 6am-10pm. But since most people hanging around outside the station are there to smoke, compliance is patchy at best.
   12921. Ron J Posted: April 27, 2021 at 11:02 AM (#6015653)
I basically only go out when I have a place to go. And since it's going to require a mask I just wear one outside.
   12922. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 27, 2021 at 11:07 AM (#6015654)
Not to get too political, but Tucker Carlson's views on what constitutes child abuse don't hold a lot of sway with me.
   12923. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: April 27, 2021 at 11:30 AM (#6015660)
Will be interesting what my in-laws say to us since they're devoted Tucker-ites.

Here in SC, mass last week by my math was 60% NO mask with no pew spacing. Now, I'll admit the majority at 7:30 AM are 60+ so the likelihood is they should be vaccinated, but the church also skews hardline conservative, so I suspect vaccination rates aren't 100%.

Its strange because we were in a rich, conservative suburb of ATL last month and that church required masks and distancing. It's almost like my priest is a COVID denier, despite the fact he was briefly hospitalized with it.

Anyway, we don't mask when we're walking the dog or outside in general, but the few times we've been downtown we'll mask when we walk on more crowded sidewalks, but we're definitely in the minority here.

We ate at a restaurant in a locality without a mask mandate (didn't realize) and I counted less than 10% mask usage upon entering the restaurant (~100 people). Staff was fully masked up. So weird.
   12924. SoSH U at work Posted: April 27, 2021 at 11:36 AM (#6015661)
Its strange because we were in a rich, conservative suburb of ATL last month and that church required masks and distancing.


The Archdiocese of Chicago still requires it, and I'm sure many others do as well.
   12925. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 27, 2021 at 11:44 AM (#6015663)


We ate at a restaurant in a locality without a mask mandate (didn't realize) and I counted less than 10% mask usage upon entering the restaurant (~100 people). Staff was fully masked up. So weird.


I wouldn't expect people to wear masks while eating. I know many restaurants require mask usage when you're not seated at your table, which I have no problem with but also seems like it probably isn't doing much if people are not wearing their masks while seated.
   12926. Mike A Posted: April 27, 2021 at 12:27 PM (#6015666)
They're still doing communion at quite a few churches. Not sure that's the best idea.

Anyways, now that I'm vacc'ed and integrating back into society, I find myself getting pretty angry at those who refuse to wear masks indoors. I try to bite my tongue lest I get shot (thanks, Tucker!), but it's difficult. I also try to socially distance while in line, but yesterday three different people tried to cut in front of me because they assumed I was not in line. So, yeah.
   12927. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: April 27, 2021 at 12:39 PM (#6015667)
12925. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 27, 2021 at 11:44 AM (#6015663)


We ate at a restaurant in a locality without a mask mandate (didn't realize) and I counted less than 10% mask usage upon entering the restaurant (~100 people). Staff was fully masked up. So weird.

I wouldn't expect people to wear masks while eating. I know many restaurants require mask usage when you're not seated at your table, which I have no problem with but also seems like it probably isn't doing much if people are not wearing their masks while seated.


Sorry, poorly worded. I meant that while we ate, I could see the door. That was the percent that had on a mask while in the waiting area over the course of an hour. The room was about 15x25.
   12928. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: April 27, 2021 at 12:44 PM (#6015670)

12926. Mike A Posted: April 27, 2021 at 12:27 PM (#6015666)
They're still doing communion at quite a few churches. Not sure that's the best idea.

Since mass reopened here communion lines have been back. Initially it was no communion straight to the mouth by the priest but it was never enforced.

Until last weekend it was 1 line with distancing between family groups, but I guess our dear leader got tired of that and now it's back to side by side walking down the aisle.

As you may tell I'm done with this church, my wife about 50% done, but at the moment it's not worth the massive fight that would cause with my wife's family.
   12929. SoSH U at work Posted: April 27, 2021 at 12:56 PM (#6015674)
Since mass reopened here communion lines have been back. Initially it was no communion straight to the mouth by the priest but it was never enforced.


That's still the rule here. Priest and Eucharistic ministers are masked. Six feet apart in line. Receive the host with your hands only, then move over to remove your mask and place it in your mouth, mask back on and then return to the pew.

And it is strictly enforced.

   12930. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 27, 2021 at 01:55 PM (#6015686)

The average age of a COVID case in Florida was 36 this past week. The trend since early February has been 40, 40, 40, 39, 39, 38, 38, 37, 37, 36, 36. So hopefully that trend will continue and we'll see the average go down to 35 this week.

A couple of days late with this update, but the average age of a COVID case in Florida did indeed decline to 35 last week.
   12931. Eudoxus Posted: April 27, 2021 at 02:16 PM (#6015690)
I've stopped posting daily changes in the US death rate, because the Worldometer numbers tend to change a bit for a few days after first going up, and the US decline had leveled to the point that the number drift was overwhelming the actual changes -- it would look as if we were dropping 1-2% a day, but then most of that would go away in the next few days. So maybe just weekly numbers now. Thus:

April 19-26: 740->715, 3.4% decline

3.4% for a week is lower than I'd like, but at least it's still moving downward. 722 was the low for last fall, so we're now at a lower death rate than we've had since the mid-summer surge. (July 10, to be precise. On July 11 the rolling average jumped from 676 to 744.)

And some international numbers. Hungary moved into first place in overall death rate (passing fully-vaccinated Gibraltar, which hasn't had a death since March 13 and is down to 6 active cases). Hungary looks like it's maybe passed the peak of its current wave, but is still in bad shape (see below). There's no way they'll finish below 3000 deaths/million, and it's not impossible that they'll reach 4000.

Taiwan: 0 [0]
UK: 0.33 [0.37] [0.55]
Indonesia: 0.62 [0.47]
India: 1.78 [0.97] [0.54]
US: 2.15 [2.22] [2.3]
Germany: 2.67 [2.82] [2.4]
France: 4.46 [4.46] (France's death rate is weirdly constant for the last 4-5 months)
Iran: 4.94
Czechia: 5.14 [6.9] [10.2]
Italy: 5.47 [6.27] [7.6]
Colombia: 8.55 [7.23]
Peru: 10.63
Brazil: 11.45 [13.4] [14.6]
Poland: 12.42 [13.8] [13]
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 18.15 [19.75] [23]
Hungary: 21.14 [24.8] [25.3]
   12932. bunyon Posted: April 27, 2021 at 02:44 PM (#6015694)
I wouldn't expect people to wear masks while eating. I know many restaurants require mask usage when you're not seated at your table, which I have no problem with but also seems like it probably isn't doing much if people are not wearing their masks while seated.

Yeah, I've never gotten this. I understand you can't eat or drink through the mask. But if it's not safe to move around or enter without a mask, it isn't safe to sit at a table and eat without a mask. The loophole to take the mask off is there so we can keep restaurants open, not because it's somehow safe.

I follow the rules because most of the rules make sense. But not all of them do.
   12933. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: April 27, 2021 at 03:36 PM (#6015701)
Meanwhile unhinged Tucker Carlson tells his viewers to confront people wearing masks outside, and to call the police or child protective services on people whose kids are wearing masks outside. While wearing masks outside probably does not provide that much protection if you’re not in a densely packed area, there is no real harm from doing so and Tucker’s rant seems like an invitation to get people killed by armed lunatics or by the cops themselves. I would send him the bill for the cost of every frivolous police report filed, and if anyone has their kids taken away over this bullshit I hope they sue Fox and Carlson.


He's behind the curve.

A group of anti-mask protesters targeted elementary school children in Beverly Hills, California on Wednesday.

* * *
"I'm positive you hate that mask," one woman shouts at a child in one of the videos. "And it smells bad!"

Another man is captured telling a kid: "No one likes the masks, so I don't know why you're wearing them."


It is sad that just as we can see the light at the end of the tunnel of this current pandemic, we are faced with a new pandemic of extremely unwell people actively spreading new pathogens.
   12934. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 27, 2021 at 03:40 PM (#6015702)
The state will give a $100 savings bond to each West Virginian from age 16-35 who takes a COVID-19 vaccine.


West Virginians would probably prefer produce. Or roadkill.
   12935. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 27, 2021 at 04:03 PM (#6015708)
West Virginians would probably prefer produce. Or roadkill.
or just a free frosty from wendys. $100 could be anything, but a frosty is refreshing and delicious.
   12936. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 27, 2021 at 04:05 PM (#6015709)
I was wearing a mask outside yesterday while mowing the lawn.
That seems unnecessary, unless there were a large number of spectators.
   12937. Srul Itza Posted: April 27, 2021 at 04:48 PM (#6015720)
I have had my second shot Moderna shot 9 days ago. When I am outside, walking to work or walking the dog, I take my mask off if there is nobody around. I could probably leave it off when I am passing people, but I tend to put it back on, especially when passing close to non-masked people (although mask compliance is pretty good in the Hawaii).

After the full shutdown lifted, I have been out to eat around once or twice a month, and we take the masks off when we sit down. Restaurants were operating at 50% capacity, so social distancing was followed, and all waitpeople are masked.
   12938. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 27, 2021 at 04:59 PM (#6015723)
I've yet to see anyone wearing a mask at a restaurant table unless they're waiting on a to-go order, in which case they're presumably too consumed by fear to approximate normal behavior anyway.

No outside mask-wearing, either, except maybe for the short distance from a store to the shopper's car. Not that I've been to any sort of mass gatherings.
   12939. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 27, 2021 at 05:18 PM (#6015729)

Srul, were you eating indoors or outdoors?
   12940. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: April 27, 2021 at 05:49 PM (#6015734)
That seems unnecessary, unless there were a large number of spectators.

You haven't seen what I do to dandelions. I do not like dandelions.
   12941. Tony S Posted: April 27, 2021 at 05:58 PM (#6015736)
"I'm positive you hate that mask," one woman shouts at a child in one of the videos. "And it smells bad!"

Another man is captured telling a kid: "No one likes the masks, so I don't know why you're wearing them."


"What do you want to do after lunch, hon?"

"I don't know, hmmm... hey, let's go to the local elementary school and yell at kids for wearing masks!"

"Sounds like a plan!"


Every movement needs its foot soldiers.

   12942. philphan Posted: April 27, 2021 at 06:33 PM (#6015741)
So did everyone hear about the expensive private school in Miami that will not employ teachers who are vaccinated against COVID-19?

Miami private school won’t employ vaccinated teachers

Leila Centner, who co-founded the school with husband David Centner, warned that vaccinated persons “may be transmitting something from their bodies” that could harm others, particularly the “reproductive systems, fertility, and normal growth and development in women and children.”


Earlier in the pandemic, they apparently would not allow their teachers to wear masks, and media have uncovered earlier antivax quotes from the founders.

“Florida Man and Woman”
   12943. JJ1986 Posted: April 27, 2021 at 06:47 PM (#6015744)
"reports have surfaced recently of non-vaccinated people being negatively impacted by interacting with people who have been vaccinated.”
Sounds right.
   12944. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 27, 2021 at 06:49 PM (#6015745)
Leila Centner, who co-founded the school with husband David Centner, warned that vaccinated persons “may be transmitting something from their bodies” that could harm others, particularly the “reproductive systems, fertility, and normal growth and development in women and children.”
They're known for their science curriculum, I assume.
   12945. Tony S Posted: April 27, 2021 at 07:57 PM (#6015753)
According to philphan's link, parents pay 30K a year for their kids' "education" at that institution.

Zimbabwean currency probably has a better RoI.
   12946. Eudoxus Posted: April 27, 2021 at 08:03 PM (#6015755)
Taking a finer-grained look at the US: the current overall death rate for the country is 2.15/million/day. Some individual states:

Mississippi: 1
Wisconsin: 1.21
New Mexico: 1.43
Louisiana: 1.52
California: 1.67
Texas: 1.76
Arizona: 2.19
New York: 2.78
Florida: 3.02
Pennsylvania: 3.28
New Jersey: 3.82
Michigan: 6.5

At this point almost 10% of the US deaths are coming from Michigan. The case rate has peaked there, so maybe their deaths start going down soon.
   12947. Srul Itza Posted: April 28, 2021 at 01:30 PM (#6015850)
Srul, were you eating indoors or outdoors?


Indoors, at fairly high-end restaurants, where they do a good job at enforcing social distancing. Places like Signature, Hy's Steakhouse, and such. I especially like Taormina in Waikiki, though the first time we went there just after the shut down lifted, it was very sad, seeing Waikiki as a ghost town, with so many stores closed.

Bear in mind, also, that this is Hawaii, which has had the lowest rate of infections and deaths in the country.
   12948. Srul Itza Posted: April 28, 2021 at 01:32 PM (#6015852)
According to philphan's link, parents pay 30K a year for their kids' "education" at that institution.


If I am a college admissions officer, and I see that school on the application, it goes to the bottom of the pile.
   12949. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 28, 2021 at 01:35 PM (#6015855)
But the Liberty University admissions officer will have their eyes light up, and offer early admission.
   12950. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: April 28, 2021 at 02:49 PM (#6015869)

If I am a college admissions officer, and I see that school on the application, it goes to the bottom of the pile.


Arkansas' governor, a former U.S. rep, is a graduate of Bob Jones University, as is his former U.S. senator brother. The results are about what one would expect.

At least they come by their know-nothingism artifice-free, I suppose.
   12951. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: April 28, 2021 at 03:03 PM (#6015872)
India continues to spiral:

Numerous crematoriums in Delhi have been forced to expand into footpaths, nearby parks, car parks and open ground but they are still running out of space. At Sarai Kale Khan crematorium, 70 extra funeral pyre platforms are being built.

In the Dwarka area of Delhi, a dog crematorium is to be converted into use for human bodies as the authorities scrambled for additional space for the Covid dead, and authorities are also looking for space along the Yamuna river.

A senior official in Delhi said the city was experiencing a 15% rise in funerals every day. Municipal corporations have been instructed to expand crematorium capacity to cope with 1,000 bodies a day.

Crematoriums are also reportedly running low on wood to build the funeral pyres. Some trees in the capital’s parks have been cut down and in east Delhi, the municipal corporation issued orders to use cow dung patties, instead of wood, in cremations.

If we get more bodies then we will cremate on the road. There is no more space here,” said Jitender Singh Shanty, who is coordinating more than 100 cremations per day at an east Delhi crematorium. “We had never thought that we would see such horrible scenes.”


Graun
   12952. Tony S Posted: April 29, 2021 at 08:03 AM (#6016072)
New Mexico is another state that's playing it smart, tying re-opening thresholds to vaccination rates.

You don't stop the antibiotic just because you're beginning to feel better.
   12953. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: April 29, 2021 at 09:50 AM (#6016094)
   12954. Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 29, 2021 at 02:07 PM (#6016133)
Fixing the inversion of title and link in 12953

India
   12955. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: April 29, 2021 at 03:50 PM (#6016164)
DOH!
Thanks.

Also filed under India, there's a new (well, newish) variant B.1.168 (the triple mutant) which may be spreading in parts of the country (specifically in West Bengal) and contributing to the explosive growth:

In this case, the three mutations are:
A deletion and two changes in spike protein
Deletion of H146 and Y145
Mutation in E484K and D614G in spike protein

...
Experts say at present there is no conclusive evidence to comment on the impact that this variant can have on vaccines but the presence of E484K mutation in it is a cause for concern.

E484K is a major immune escape variant and is also found in a number of emerging lineages across the world. Immune escape variants are those mutations that help the variant to evade the immune system and possibly result in compromising vaccine efficacy.

What is the new "triple mutant variant"
   12956. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 29, 2021 at 04:40 PM (#6016180)

India with 363k, 379k, and 387k cases over the past three days. The best one can say is that after weeks of the case numbers growing 50-60% per week, they appear to only be growing 20-30% this week. But that's still pretty bad.
   12957. bunyon Posted: April 29, 2021 at 04:53 PM (#6016189)
Dave, I also wonder if they've simply maxxed out how many they can count.
   12958. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: April 29, 2021 at 05:07 PM (#6016195)
Dave, I also wonder if they've simply maxxed out how many they can count.


And how accurate they even are ...

According to health experts, the official number of coronavirus cases in India is likely to be a vast underestimate, in part due to low testing. This is a problem Pandey has seen in Uttar Pradesh.

When she and her family developed symptoms about 10 days ago, she called 15 local hospitals and testing centres but none would allow them to drive to get tested, or collect samples from their house. When they did get tests, the results were all negative, despite them all having symptoms fitting coronavirus and her father’s oxygen levels dropping to 83.

According to Pandey, close family friends of theirs were tested at the same lab and also got negative results. Now, she says, two members of that family are on oxygen. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers are a tenth of what they are. Everyone is infected, everyone is sick.”

Graun
   12959. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: April 29, 2021 at 05:08 PM (#6016196)
Oxygen shortage? There is no oxygen shortage.

Police in India are prosecuting a man who used Twitter to try to find oxygen for his dying grandfather.

Officers in Uttar Pradesh state charged Shashank Yadav with spreading a rumour over oxygen shortages "with intent to cause... fear or alarm".

Mr Yadav, who did not refer to Covid in his brief tweet, could face jail.

Uttar Pradesh is among India's worst-hit states. Its chief minister, Yogi Adityanath, is accused of downplaying the severity of the coronavirus crisis.

Earlier this week, Mr Adityanath, a right-wing ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, demanded that the property of anyone spreading rumours and propaganda be seized.

BBC
   12960. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 30, 2021 at 11:42 AM (#6016292)


Dave, I also wonder if they've simply maxxed out how many they can count.


Well, the positive test rate has been gradually ticking up over the past month or so even as number of tests has increased -- it was at 22% yesterday based on the numbers I could find. That doesn't scream out to me that they've suddenly run out of testing capacity in the places where they were already testing a lot (i.e. Mumbai, etc.). It's not like NY at the peak of the pandemic where positive test rates were 40-50%, or some other states in the US when they were at their peaks.

I think the valid concern is that the pandemic has now spread beyond the more developed cities where it was originally more prevalent and where testing was more readily available. If it's spreading to new areas where there simply wasn't much testing before, we wouldn't necessarily see that in the national testing numbers.
   12961. SoSH U at work Posted: April 30, 2021 at 11:52 AM (#6016298)
Here's a question. If the vaccines have a 90-95 percent success rate, is there any way of knowing if someone is in the 5-10 percent outside getting COVID?
   12962. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 30, 2021 at 12:44 PM (#6016310)
#12961 I think theoretically they could develop an antibody test. But different antibody tests would work with different vaccines, per this link, so they are discouraging people from relying on such tests to determine whether the vaccine "worked" or not.
   12963. Greg Pope Posted: April 30, 2021 at 01:20 PM (#6016319)
Here's a question. If the vaccines have a 90-95 percent success rate, is there any way of knowing if someone is in the 5-10 percent outside getting COVID?

I don't think "getting COVID" is a binary thing. If the virus gets into your body, you have COVID. But if you're unvaccinated and you only get a small exposure, then you still probably won't get it. I don't know if that's because with a small amount it doesn't spread or if your body just takes care of it.

But if you are vaccinated and get a large enough exposure, your body fights it off. You "had" COVID but it didn't result in any symptoms. The virus got into your body and replicated but before it did any damage you fought it off. Or maybe you just got mild symptoms because it was able to do a little damage. That's where the J&J vaccination was 100% in tests as far as deaths go.

So the 5-10 percent is really just people who may have fought off the virus but not enough to say that they had no symptoms. It's complicated.

People want to think of the vaccine as a wall that doesn't let the virus inside. But it's not. It's the soldiers inside that eliminates the virus after it's gotten through.
   12964. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: April 30, 2021 at 02:22 PM (#6016329)
it was at 22% yesterday based on the numbers I could find. That doesn't scream out to me that they've suddenly run out of testing capacity in the places where they were already testing a lot (i.e. Mumbai, etc.)


I'm assuming 22% was a nationwide average?

Because I'm seeing regional numbers higher than that (from 4/27):

Five states with the highest TPR by daily numbers for tests and cases added – are Delhi (41.78%), Nagaland (37.01%), Rajasthan (34.67%), Chhattisgarh (30.84%), and Maharashtra (30.19%).



Link
   12965. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 30, 2021 at 02:35 PM (#6016332)
At its general council meeting next week, the World Trade Organization has the opportunity to help staunch the spread of covid-19 by waiving some protections on covid-19 vaccines developed by Moderna and Pfizer under the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights Agreement. More than 100 nations, including India, have urged it to do. The Biden administration is reportedly considering endorsing this move, though then again, it’s been reportedly “considering” it for months.

This isn’t just something World Trade Organization negotiators should do out of the goodness of their hearts—though it absolutely is that, assuming they have hearts. Failing to do so could result in variants that bypass vaccines, which could harm those lucky enough to have gotten the shot and send the world economy back into a tailspin.
   12966. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 30, 2021 at 02:45 PM (#6016336)


I'm assuming 22% was a nationwide average?


Yes, and it roughly matches the national number cited in your article:

India on Monday conducted 1,658,700 coronavirus tests to take the total count of tests conducted so far in the country to 280,979,877. The test positivity rate recorded was 19.5%.


But if there are entire regions at 40% then it's possible they are missing a lot more cases then they were a week ago. I don't have the numbers broken out by region.
   12967. base ball chick Posted: April 30, 2021 at 03:11 PM (#6016338)
as for india
just like with china or with parts of the US - you can't have high numbers if you don't test. i don't believe any numbers the india govt puts out any more than i did with some man telling me he'd respeck me in the morning. yeah, suuuuuuuuuuuurrrrrrrrrre. the huge pyres we can all see on satellite are just, um, folks want fire, yeah, that's it. or else fake news

US doesn't have enough vaccinated people to keep covid numbers down for good. i guess we can just call all the long haulers and younger people with covid bad enough to hospitalize/die acceptable civilian casualties so as we call all pretend the virus doesn't matter

which reminds me

has anyone heard from puck? do we now assume he is one of those acceptable civilian casualties?

this is depressing

Husband is eager to restart backyard BBQs for friends/relatives but we are not having a happy time of agreement because i am insisting that anyone who comes over is vaccinated and, well

i'm SO tired of the Mah Freedom to get sick and give it to you. or is it the magical thinking that - well, it is impossible for me to ever get sick with anything ever. i feel like this is someone heading out into the desert without any water and then insisting they never get thirsty, and even if they did, there is always water anywhere

   12968. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 30, 2021 at 04:39 PM (#6016362)
Husband is eager to restart backyard BBQs for friends/relatives but we are not having a happy time of agreement because i am insisting that anyone who comes over is vaccinated and, well

"hamburgers and hotdogs for everyone who's been vaccinated...
canned dog food for everyone who hasn't."
   12969. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 30, 2021 at 05:00 PM (#6016365)

puck hasn't posted or visited the site since April 10, when he posted here implying that he was improving a bit. I wouldn't make any assumptions given he wasn't someone who posted here every day before his illness, but I hope he's ok.

   12970. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: April 30, 2021 at 05:29 PM (#6016371)
Yeah, I've been wondering about puck, too. I asked (maybe 7-10 days ago) if anybody had his contact info and how he was doing, but got no response.

Anybody know how to contact him to check?
   12971. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 30, 2021 at 06:04 PM (#6016378)

I just tried sending him a message through the site. Will let you guys know if I hear back.
   12972. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 30, 2021 at 06:23 PM (#6016388)

The message didn't go through, which probably means that he no longer uses the email address that he used to sign up for this site.

Like I said, I hope he's all right.
   12973. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 30, 2021 at 07:15 PM (#6016395)
Base Camp is in the midst of an outbreak. The first reported positive case came last Wednesday, when a Norwegian climber had to be airlifted to Kathmandu. He was quickly followed by at least three other COVID-positive people. “We can be almost sure there have been other cases already this year that were misdiagnosed or hidden, and that there will be more,” Ballinger told the Washington Post. Roughly 1,000 people—climbers, but also porters, cooks, and guides—are jammed together at Base Camp, which means there are ideal conditions for the disease to spread in one of the most isolated parts of the world, at a time when all local healthcare systems are strained to the breaking point. ExplorersWeb reported that at least 20 people had been helicoptered out, and someone at Base Camp ominously told Everest blogger Alan Arnette “the situation is much worse than anyone knows in the outside world.”



   12974. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: April 30, 2021 at 07:38 PM (#6016402)
Like I said, I hope he's all right.


When I click his member link, his last visit was on 4/10 [edit ... I see you already saw that.]

Worried.
   12975. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: April 30, 2021 at 09:00 PM (#6016417)
@stiggles

Doctors in Nepal have warned that the country is facing a similar devastating wave of Covid-19 as neighbouring India, with border districts already reporting an alarming spike in cases and shortage of hospital beds and oxygen.

In the Banke district of Nepal, bordering India, doctors at Bheri hospital said it was turning into a “mini India”, with coronavirus spreading out of control.

“The situation is out of control. We are in a helpless situation,” said Rajan Pandey, the chief consultant physician at the hospital. “We lack nursing manpower in the hospital.” In the last two weeks, 80 staff members at Bheri hospital have tested positive for Covid-19.


Climb Everest? Sure! What could go wrong???

Graun
   12976. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: April 30, 2021 at 09:49 PM (#6016425)
you know, if covid often kills by depriving the body of oxygen...does elevation above sea level have a substantial impact in the outcomes of people who have covid? on the people who need hospitalization?


i know we've discussed the impact of humidity on the spread of covid in places like florida, but this is the first time it's occurred to me to consider elevation.
   12977. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: May 01, 2021 at 01:28 PM (#6016465)
RE: testing:

In the city of Muzaffarnagar, in Uttar Pradesh, data collected by the Observer shows a vast discrepancy between the official death toll recorded by the local authority and the accounts given by those who run its crematoriums and graveyards.
...
Official government data confirms very low Covid-19 testing rates in Muzaffarnagar; on Tuesday 27 April, no tests were done in the area, while on 29 April, only 561 tests were done, which all came back positive.


Graun: India Accused of Undercounting Deaths.
   12978. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 01, 2021 at 04:10 PM (#6016473)
Meanwhile, Hungary's world-leading death rate should pass New Jersey's tomorrow.
   12979. sanny manguillen (was rennie's tenet) Posted: May 01, 2021 at 04:16 PM (#6016474)
Don't know if people have been tracking this here, but monthly deaths of former MLB players (per BB-Ref):

2020
January 8
February 8
March 8
April 12
May 10
June 11

July 9
August 7
September 5

October 14
November 9
December 12

2021
January 12
February 13
March 15

April 3
   12980. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 01, 2021 at 05:01 PM (#6016477)
Interesting. 113 former MLB batters died last year. That’s the most this century by a considerable margin (102 is the second-most).
   12981. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2021 at 06:10 PM (#6016480)
it's just one more example of the folly of expansion.
   12982. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2021 at 06:13 PM (#6016481)
A Republican lawmaker in the Oregon House of Representatives is facing two criminal charges for letting rioters into the state Capitol in December. State Rep. Mike Nearman was charged Friday with official misconduct in the first degree, which is a class A misdemeanor, and criminal trespass in the second degree, which is a class C misdemeanor. The charges came after months of investigation into what happened on Dec. 21, when rioters got into the Capitol at a time when it was closed to the public and lawmakers held an emergency session on COVID-19 relief. Surveillance footage showed Nearman leaving the Capitol into a group of protesters trying to get inside. The move appeared designed to allow the demonstrators, who were demanding an end to virus-related restrictions, into the building.

   12983. Tony S Posted: May 02, 2021 at 09:04 AM (#6016515)
Sigh.

Ferry County Memorial Hospital officials have confirmed more than 100 cases, with one reported death, since the April 9-11 events, including a membership drive that featured dinner, live music and a 1980s-themed karaoke night.

Some patients have had to be transferred to Wenatchee and Yakima because of a lack of capacity.

Less than one-quarter of the county's residents have received a vaccine, according to the health district, but officials said the outbreak has increased interest in it.


People are still trying to climb the Berlin Wall and getting shot when all they have to do is walk a little bit and go through the gate.
   12984. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 02, 2021 at 09:35 AM (#6016517)
Russia records more than 400,000 excess deaths during pandemic -Reuters calculations

(The COVID death toll at Worldometers is ~110,000, although Rosstat publishes numbers that are supposed to be more complete and are closer to 250,000.)
   12985. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 02, 2021 at 09:52 AM (#6016519)
People are still trying to climb the Berlin Wall and getting shot when all they have to do is walk a little bit and go through the gate.

Places that want to have big group events should offer the vaccine *at* the events.
   12986. Conor Posted: May 02, 2021 at 10:22 AM (#6016520)
Here's a question. If the vaccines have a 90-95 percent success rate, is there any way of knowing if someone is in the 5-10 percent outside getting COVID?


The 95% efficacy means a 95% reduction in the chance of getting covid, not that you still have a 5% chance of getting covid after receiving the vaccine. Based on the trial results, it's much much lower. For instance, in the Pfizer trial, of the 21,830 people who received the vaccine, 8 of them ended up with symptomatic covid. (0.04%). That was compared to 162 in the placebo trial, 0.74%.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/13/learning/what-does-95-effective-mean-teaching-the-math-of-vaccine-efficacy.html
   12987. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 02, 2021 at 11:28 AM (#6016524)
That number of excess deaths puts Russia as one of the hardest hit countries in Europe at getting close to 0.3% of population--more or less even with Hungary (for which, at least according to the financial times, excess deaths are not very different from recorded deaths). Worse than Hungary maybe, since Russia has a young population for Europe (and slightly younger than the US), where Hungary is more in line with the rest of Europe.
   12988. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: May 02, 2021 at 01:36 PM (#6016530)
The 95% efficacy means a 95% reduction in the chance of getting covid, not that you still have a 5% chance of getting covid after receiving the vaccine. Based on the trial results, it's much much lower. For instance, in the Pfizer trial, of the 21,830 people who received the vaccine, 8 of them ended up with symptomatic covid. (0.04%). That was compared to 162 in the placebo trial, 0.74%.


But that could be achieved because 95% of people gain full immunity or because everyone simply becomes much less likely to get infected when they are exposed. This is something we could find the difference between if we had robust antibody data. If 95% of people who get the vaccines test postive for antibodies later, then we'd know it was the former (and antibody tests could be used to determine whether someone was in the 95% or the 5%), but if close to 100% test positive for antibodies, then we'd know it was the later case and nobody would be completely safe from infection (but high vax rates would cut the R0 to well below 1 still).
   12989. Eudoxus Posted: May 02, 2021 at 02:05 PM (#6016534)
Meanwhile, Hungary's world-leading death rate should pass New Jersey's tomorrow.

This is a nice reminder of just how bad NYC was last April. Within one month, they picked up a death toll that it's taken the hardest-hit country another year to match. (Hungary of course probably isn't actually hardest-hit. Probably there are some cities in South America that have been hit about as hard, although maybe not as swiftly, as NYC was.)

I was in Manhattan for a conference at NYU in late February of 2020. At the time I didn't think anything of it; in retrospect, I was probably somewhat lucky to escape COVID-free.

does elevation above sea level have a substantial impact in the outcomes of people who have covid? on the people who need hospitalization?

This study suggests that there are lower rates at higher altitudes.
   12990. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 02, 2021 at 02:15 PM (#6016536)
I was in Manhattan for a conference at NYU in late February of 2020.

I was in Queens for a funeral on February 29, 2020. (I may not return to NYC until the next February 29th...)
   12991. Lassus Posted: May 02, 2021 at 03:33 PM (#6016544)
I was in Manhattan for a conference at NYU in late February of 2020. At the time I didn't think anything of it; in retrospect, I was probably somewhat lucky to escape COVID-free.
I mean, in terms of odds and averages, this seems at least a bit of an oversell. I guess depending on what your parameters of lucky are.

I was in NYC the weekend of February 24th, saw West Side Story, ate out three times, maybe five, counting lunches. While I'm GLAD I didn't get sick, I don't feel like it was luck I came home healthy.
   12992. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 02, 2021 at 03:36 PM (#6016545)
Peru probably hit 0.25% excess deaths (as much as NYC did in a month) more than 6 months ago.
   12993. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 02, 2021 at 04:16 PM (#6016550)
Also, Peru and Ecuador are a lot younger than the US. Factoring in age distribution, and Ecuador probably had as many infected as a percentage of the population (probably under 20% in NYC, in the first month?) by early Summer last year, with Peru not far behind.
   12994. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 03, 2021 at 12:24 PM (#6016655)
Herd immunity through natural infection was always a pipe dream at best. Now it appears there's enough resistance to getting vaccinated that herd immunity in this country even with vaccines is likely out of reach. Also, to be really free of the virus here we'd have to vaccinate the whole world anyway, and that's definitely not happening anytime soon.
   12995. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: May 03, 2021 at 02:45 PM (#6016680)
Also, to be really free of the virus here we'd have to vaccinate the whole world anyway, and that's definitely not happening anytime soon.

I wonder how this works with China, where they have a vaccine that's somewhere between 50 and 90 percent effective, depending on who you ask (the Chinese government tends to be on the high side).
   12996. Ron J Posted: May 03, 2021 at 02:53 PM (#6016683)
Some (rough) numbers about the situation in India:

Case detection rate is only 3.6%

Only 34% of deaths are happening in hospitals or other health facilities.

Dr. Hemant D. Shewade estimates the death rate is about 5 times what's being reported.

(All numbers from a CNN story )
   12997. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: May 03, 2021 at 04:18 PM (#6016693)
I'm not comfortable with even making a guess at the "truth" of where India is at right now, but "official death count x5" doesn't seem far fetched.

   12998. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 03, 2021 at 04:53 PM (#6016696)


I'm not comfortable with even making a guess at the "truth" of where India is at right now, but "official death count x5" doesn't seem far fetched.


Yeah, I am skeptical that anyone has any clue what the actual numbers are. A 3.6% case detection rate is awfully specific. If it is is only 3.6% then actual cases are ~28x the reported number, or about 10 million new cases per day at current run rate.

5x reported deaths doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility. 28x reported cases strikes me as very high (that's like three times worse than the multiple in New York/Italy/Spain during the outset of the pandemic), but who knows?
   12999. RJ in TO Posted: May 03, 2021 at 05:19 PM (#6016698)
28x reported cases strikes me as very high (that's like three times worse than the multiple in New York/Italy/Spain during the outset of the pandemic), but who knows?
10 million cases would have 0.7% of the nation contracting COVID per day. Officially, they've had almost 20 million cases, so that multiplier would have them at over 40% of the population having already contracted it, and we'd start seeing a slowdown in new cases or at least positive rates in testing because of a lack of opportunity for the virus. Instead, it still looks like the daily numbers are growing.

I have no doubt things are bad, but I can't believe they're that bad.
   13000. Ron J Posted: May 03, 2021 at 05:37 PM (#6016702)
Flip?
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