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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 13254 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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Page 131 of 133 pages ‹ First  < 129 130 131 132 133 > 
   13001. Ron J Posted: May 03, 2021 at 05:39 PM (#6016703)
12999. One of the things that appears to be happening is that getting the base strain doesn't seem to protect against the variants. So a straight case count is probably misleading.
   13002. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 03, 2021 at 06:13 PM (#6016705)
10 million cases would have 0.7% of the nation contracting COVID per day. Officially, they've had almost 20 million cases, so that multiplier would have them at over 40% of the population having already contracted it, and we'd start seeing a slowdown in new cases or at least positive rates in testing because of a lack of opportunity for the virus. Instead, it still looks like the daily numbers are growing.


It’s possible the multiple has only been that high over the past few weeks as things have spiraled out of control. Maybe there was a 5x multiple on the first 15 million cases and a 28x on the most recent 5 million cases. Like I said, I’m skeptical of 28x but I could believe 10-15x. The main point is nobody knows and nobody should assume herd immunity through infection is going to happen anytime soon.
   13003. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: May 03, 2021 at 07:17 PM (#6016712)
Looks like Pfizer will be receiving EUA to expand vaccination eligibility down to 12 years old. That would add another 16M to the eligible pool of vaccination candidates.
   13004. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 03, 2021 at 07:48 PM (#6016716)
Super happy about 12-15 approval. Lets vaxx as many as possible.
   13005. Eudoxus Posted: May 05, 2021 at 01:30 PM (#6017075)
April 26 -> May 4: 715 -> 718; 0.4% increase.

Death rate in the US has been flat for about two weeks now. I *think* at least some of this is working through the consequences of the recent Michigan surge, but there is a real worry about whether we've seen the bulk of the vaccination effect now. The good news is that cases are trending back down:

April 26 -> May 4: 58371 -> 49396; 15.4% decrease

That decrease involves Michigan being past its case peak. Hopefully that means in a week or two we start to see a corresponding drop in deaths. (Cases bottomed out last fall at about 36,000 per day; a month after that we hit the fall low for deaths, which was more or less where we are now for deaths.)

Some representative state death rates:

Mississippi: 1.67
Arizona: 1.51
Texas: 1.72
Louisiana: 1.74
California: 1.85
Wisconsin: 1.89
New York: 2.73
Florida: 2.88
Pennsylvania: 2.97
New Jersey: 3.15
New Mexico: 3.33
Michigan: 7

(The overall US average is 2.15 deaths/million/day.)

And the international survey (previous weeks' numbers to the right):

Taiwan: 0 [0] [0]
UK: 0.19 [0.33] [0.37] [0.55]
Indonesia: 0.62 [0.62] [0.47]
WORLDWIDE AVERAGE: 1.72
US: 2.15 [2.15] [2.22] [2.3]
India: 2.57 [1.78] [0.97] [0.54]
Germany: 2.70 [2.67] [2.82] [2.4]
France: 3.9 [4.46] [4.46]
Czechia: 4.02 [5.14] [6.9] [10.2]
Iran: 4.52 [4.94]
Italy: 4.32 [5.47] [6.27] [7.6]
Poland: 8.44 [12.42] [13.8] [13]
Colombia: 9.43 [8.55] [7.23]
Peru: 9.7 [10.63]
Brazil: 11.03 [11.45] [13.4] [14.6]
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 13.23 [18.15] [19.75] [23]
Hungary: 15.83 [21.14] [24.8] [25.3]

It looks like eastern and southern Europe are starting come down off their recent peak. The UK looks to me like the biggest success story around. Back in late January their deaths/million/day was 18.3; they're now down to about 1% the death rate they had then. (For comparison, the US is at about 20% of their January peak death rate.)
   13006. SoSH U at work Posted: May 05, 2021 at 02:10 PM (#6017085)
Got my second Pfizer on Monday and apparently defied the odds. After suffering a day's worth of flu-like symptoms after my first shot, I felt even worse, for longer, this time around.
   13007. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: May 05, 2021 at 03:08 PM (#6017099)
That sucks. For me, if not for the moderately sore shoulder I had no issues with either shot. So much so, I wonder if my body responded at all
   13008. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 05, 2021 at 03:15 PM (#6017101)
Yeah - I had Pfizer II yesterday afternoon, and thus far my body's reaction seems to be a big "meh."
   13009. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: May 05, 2021 at 03:33 PM (#6017110)
A friend of mine had his 2nd Pfizer early last week & was markedly fatigued (not his normal condition, unlike me) for about a day & a half, but that was it.

As noted previously, the couple of hours I felt like crap 1.5 days after mine may very well have had nothing to do with the vaccine. I'm at the point -- have been for quite some while, I'm afraid -- where such things aren't particularly unusual.
   13010. SoSH U at work Posted: May 05, 2021 at 04:47 PM (#6017134)
I'm at the point -- have been for quite some while, I'm afraid -- where such things aren't particularly unusual.


I'm the opposite. I couldn't tell you the last time I felt like that before my reactions to the shots.
   13011. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 05, 2021 at 05:09 PM (#6017144)
After weeks of back-and-forth discussions within the Biden administration, the U.S. is now preparing to back the temporary waiving of patent rights over covid-19 vaccines—a policy that advocates say is needed to speed up the production and acquisition of vaccines for developing countries. As part of its support, the US is expected to work with the World Trade Organization to negotiate the language of these waivers.

   13012. bunyon Posted: May 05, 2021 at 05:15 PM (#6017145)
Still no word on Puck?
   13013. Tony S Posted: May 05, 2021 at 06:29 PM (#6017167)
Indonesia seems unusually low. What are they doing differently?
   13014. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 05, 2021 at 06:45 PM (#6017176)
Indonesia seems unusually low. What are they doing differently?
chance.
   13015. Eudoxus Posted: May 05, 2021 at 07:15 PM (#6017181)
Indonesia seems unusually low. What are they doing differently?

Southeast Asia in general has had incredibly low COVID rates. Indonesia is actually one of the worst-hit countries in the area (along with the Philippines). Thailand, with a population of 7o million, has a total of 316 deaths for the entire pandemic (5% of their deaths were today!). Vietnam, witha population of 98 million, has had a total of 35 deaths. Laos, with a population of 7 million, has had no deaths at all -- it's by far the largest country with no deaths. (Next largest is the Solomon Islands, with a population of 700,000.)

I don't know what explains the low prevalence throughout southeast Asia, though.
   13016. PeteF3 Posted: May 05, 2021 at 09:14 PM (#6017205)
It was only a hypothesis and one made several months ago, but I've heard conjecture that Southeast Asia went through a coronavirus epidemic thousands of years ago and that descendants of the survivors of that epidemic may be more naturally resistant to similar viruses.
   13017. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 06, 2021 at 08:07 AM (#6017257)
#13016, Asians don’t seem to have a problem catching and dying from COVID in the US. They are 14% of the population and 12% of the COVID deaths in California, for example (as of early March, I haven’t checked for updated numbers). They are catching and dying from it at about the same rate as white people in NYC. I haven’t seen anything that specifically breaks out Southeast Asians but that strikes me as a very unlikely hypothesis.

Effective public health measures and some luck is my best guess for why East Asia has avoided the worst of COVID. Similar to Australia and New Zealand.
   13018. Eudoxus Posted: May 06, 2021 at 11:25 AM (#6017292)
Yeah, I'm also skeptical of the inherited immunity theory. As Dave notes, any good explanation needs to account for the very low rates in Australia and New Zealand. And there have got to be a lot more than 35 people in Vietnam not of southeast Asian descent. I think that, as with a lot of COVID matters, it's pretty unclear what's going on (I foresee a whole generation's worth of dissertation topics coming out of the pandemic), but to speculate wildly, I'd suspect a combination of (i) geographical factors, (ii) cultural factors, and (iii) random variation.
   13019. GregD Posted: May 06, 2021 at 01:27 PM (#6017307)
A lot of similar theories floated about why previous pandemics made south Asians resistant to Covid....until it turned out they weren’t.
   13020. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 06, 2021 at 05:00 PM (#6017399)
In my experience as an editor and a journalist, media institutions commonly use their resources not to interrogate the power systems in place within workplaces, but to prop up and validate them. Standard journalistic protocol dictates that vulnerable sources expose themselves to the public to gain a level of credibility that is automatically extended to those in positions of power. This is not the first time I’ve seen a story about my own workplace pass along the narrative offered by those at the top, while failing to speak for those who have most to lose.

   13021. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: May 06, 2021 at 08:37 PM (#6017451)
COVID-19 has caused 6.9 million deaths globally, more than double what official reports show


link

The really interesting thing to me about this study is that it concludes that behavioral changes saved 600k+ lives, yet Florida is still not red on their map. I was pretty surprised to see that Florida was not hit harder by the methodology.
   13022. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 07, 2021 at 11:11 AM (#6017543)

The really interesting thing to me about this study is that it concludes that behavioral changes saved 600k+ lives, yet Florida is still not red on their map. I was pretty surprised to see that Florida was not hit harder by the methodology.


That's a reduction of 600,000 non-COVID deaths (i.e. flu deaths, etc.), right? I don't think they purport to estimate the number of COVID deaths that were prevented.

Anyway, I find it interesting that they think Japan has had 108,320 COVID deaths, more than 10x the reported number. Kind of hard not to question the whole exercise when you see something like that. Japan actually had fewer overall deaths in 2020 than the prior year, likely because the decline in flu and some other deaths was greater than the increase from COVID deaths.
   13023. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: May 07, 2021 at 11:22 AM (#6017550)
So I had to stay and watch my kid do gymnastics yesterday. I'm fully vaxxed in a 25x10 room where masking was required. 2 women and their kids come in and sit in seats down the row, probably 10 feet from me. They were not masked.

I felt like my paranoia was stupid since I have no idea if they're vaxxed and I "should" be 95% protected, but I couldn't help feeling uncomfortable until they left 30 minutes later. I also felt almost dumb for still wearing a mask.

The next few decades are going to be a lot of fun.
   13024. Lassus Posted: May 07, 2021 at 11:53 AM (#6017557)
Here's a fun "everyone is crazy" COVID slice of life tale:

I've been involved in a workplace class for the last three days. 11 people, one per table, regular classroom size, regular ceiling height (not high). Masks required to come in, masks can be removed when sitting. Based on the classroom size described, and lack of open windows, I opted to wear my masks for the entirety of the class. I was the only one in the entire class who did so, including the instructor. I mean, whatever. A bigger room, a higher ceiling, windows open, as a fully vaccinated person, I MIGHT have unmasked. But I might not have. Anyhow.

You'd have to take my word for it, obviously, but I would consider myself at an easy 7 on the 1-10 COVID paranoia scale. Overly cautious, not crazy.

So here's the weird part: Portion of the class was fieldwork, outside. Not in a group, just generally wandering in a large open area. Could certainly stand together, could very easily not. My mask is off outside 99% of the time, and it was here. However, out of 11 total people, five people who did not have their mask on INside for the first 16 hours of the class put them on OUTside for the final two hours. And it wasn't like "someone might see me, see us", this was in an area with no other public at all, no one visible but the class. There was wind, even!

I admit to being kind of fascinated by that whole thing.
   13025. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 07, 2021 at 12:51 PM (#6017570)
the IHME did another thing (and this one's probably worth discussing here), but because nearly everything else they've done in the last 15 months has been "loud wrong", i'm going to go ahead and not post it.
   13026. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 07, 2021 at 03:00 PM (#6017610)

the IHME did another thing (and this one's probably worth discussing here), but because nearly everything else they've done in the last 15 months has been "loud wrong", i'm going to go ahead and not post it.


Isn't that the same thing we are talking about in #13021-22?
   13027. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: May 07, 2021 at 05:01 PM (#6017637)
However, out of 11 total people, five people who did not have their mask on INside for the first 16 hours of the class put them on OUTside for the final two hours. And it wasn't like "someone might see me, see us", this was in an area with no other public at all, no one visible but the class. There was wind, even!

This kind of story is why I keep banging my head against the wall with tshipman and outdoor masks. The virus clearly is much more dangerous inside than outside, but the public hasn't recognized that yet. Apparently some governments, presumably with accredited science advisors, haven't recognized the distinction either.
   13028. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 07, 2021 at 07:29 PM (#6017661)
Isn't that the same thing we are talking about in #13021-22?
now that you mention it, this criticism does seem to fit their MO:
Anyway, I find it interesting that they think Japan has had 108,320 COVID deaths, more than 10x the reported number. Kind of hard not to question the whole exercise when you see something like that. Japan actually had fewer overall deaths in 2020 than the prior year, likely because the decline in flu and some other deaths was greater than the increase from COVID deaths.
   13029. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 07, 2021 at 09:08 PM (#6017680)

I have a serious issue with anything that doesnt present ranges around such numbers. To their credit, the IHME projections always had a range, even if the high end of the range was often still way too low. I’m not sure why this report doesn’t. There are a number of elements of uncertainty in what they are trying to do, and when compounded they can lead to some pretty counterintuitive conclusions.
   13030. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 08, 2021 at 03:59 PM (#6017803)
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is finally acknowledging something that health experts have been saying for a while now: COVID-19 spreads through the air and can be inhaled by someone who is more than six feet away
...
Despite the change, some aerosol experts continue to say the CDC hasn’t gone far enough because it continues to say that transmission from far away is “uncommon,” which Marr said was “misleading and potentially harmful” because “if you’re in a poorly ventilated environment, virus is going to build up in the air, and everyone who’s in that room is going to be exposed.” The CDC’s wording “will lead people to continue to think that maintaining distance is sufficient to prevent transmission,” reads an open letter signed by seven experts, including Marr. “We know that transmission at distances beyond 6 feet occurs because of superspreader events, careful studies of smaller outbreaks, and the physics of aerosols. It can easily happen indoors in a poorly ventilated environment, when people are not wearing masks.”

   13031. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 08, 2021 at 04:05 PM (#6017807)
#13030 I seriously expected that article to be from May 2020. Is there anyone who didn't know that already in May 2021?
   13032. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: May 08, 2021 at 04:35 PM (#6017820)
#13031: The debate has been whether the virus spreads through the air in droplets, or absent droplets whether live viral particles can be transmitted through the air and spread infection.
   13033. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 08, 2021 at 08:41 PM (#6017862)
#13030 I seriously expected that article to be from May 2020. Is there anyone who didn't know that already in May 2021?
both the CDC and the WHO have dragged their feet on acknowledging this.

and as the story in [13024] shows, the lack of clarity is causing a lot of confusion.
   13034. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 10, 2021 at 04:09 PM (#6018096)
“Every night he has a million questions about this vaccine. Somehow, magically, he has no one on his show that can answer these questions — I’m willing to answer these questions,” Reiner added. “... I have two questions for Tucker Carlson. Number one, you have been vaccinated? Number two, why won’t you tell your audience whether you have been vaccinated? I am tired of his nonsense.”
...
Insider reached out to Fox on Monday to see whether Carlson, like his co-hosts on Fox & Friends, has in fact received the vaccine. They didn’t receive a response.

   13035. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 10, 2021 at 05:07 PM (#6018117)
Washington, DC is phasing out capacity restrictions starting May 21. The Nationals will go to 36% of capacity (just under 15,000 fans) after the current home stand, and full capacity on June 11. Lots of places equal or exceed DC’s vaccination rate (more fans come from Virginia anyway), so we may see most capacity restrictions ending soon if other jurisdictions act similarly.
   13036. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: May 10, 2021 at 05:59 PM (#6018131)
There will be few, if any, restrictions in place by June 15th. Hopefully, most places in the US will be at 60%+ vaccination rates by that point.
   13037. Lassus Posted: May 10, 2021 at 07:29 PM (#6018146)
This kind of story is why I keep banging my head against the wall with tshipman and outdoor masks. The virus clearly is much more dangerous inside than outside, but the public hasn't recognized that yet. Apparently some governments, presumably with accredited science advisors, haven't recognized the distinction either.

I can even get wearing masks outside in a group. I get that's an 8 or 8.5 on the paranoid scale, but I at least still GET it. I do.

What I don't get, at all, even a little, is how one can be concerned enough to wear the mask OUTSIDE, but somehow decide not to be concerned enough to wear one INSIDE. What is wrong with your head that you wear a mask outside in the wind but not one inside in a classroom? Is there even a crazy-ass explanation for this that I haven't been able to break my brain enough to see?
   13038. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 10, 2021 at 08:17 PM (#6018154)
What I don't get, at all, even a little, is how one can be concerned enough to wear the mask OUTSIDE, but somehow decide not to be concerned enough to wear one INSIDE. What is wrong with your head that you wear a mask outside in the wind but not one inside in a classroom? Is there even a crazy-ass explanation for this that I haven't been able to break my brain enough to see?

yes. now, break your brain.
   13039. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: May 11, 2021 at 12:22 AM (#6018201)
In case anyone was considering rubbing cow dung on their face to fight Covid, don’t.
   13040. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: May 11, 2021 at 12:25 AM (#6018202)
Double fail.
   13041. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 11, 2021 at 12:45 AM (#6018206)
In case anyone was considering rubbing cow dung on their face to fight Covid, don’t.
But if it’s not specifically to fight COVID, that’s still ok, right?
   13042. Eudoxus Posted: May 11, 2021 at 12:03 PM (#6018257)
Update time. The US death rate makes a bit of progress this week:

May 4 -> May 11: 718 -> 648; 9.8% decline

Since April 1 of last year, we've been at a lower death rate only between June 20 and July 9 of last summer.

Cases are also dropping:

May 4 -> May 11: 49396 -> 40395; 18.3% decline

(A useful heuristic: the steady-state rate in the US seems to be reported deaths = 1% of reported cases. When the percentage is below 1%, it's because we're on an upward slope and increasing deaths are lagging behind increasing cases. When the percentage is above 1%, it's because we're on a downward slope and decreasing deaths are lagging behind decreasing cases. The US has been running 1.5-2% recently, so I'd expect continued decline in deaths.)

Various states:

Arizona: 1.23
Louisiana: 1.3
California: 1.32
Mississippi: 1.33
Texas: 1.55
Wisconsin: 1.72
New York: 2.47
New Mexico: 2.86
Pennsylvania: 2.97
New Jersey: 3.15
Florida: 3.21
Michigan: 7

(The overall US death rate is 1.95/million/day.) Michigan has I think peaked in deaths, and should start coming down soon. A good Michigan drop might get us under 600 in the nearish future.

And some international numbers:

Taiwan: 0 [0] [0] [0] (last death on April 24)
UK: 0.15 [0.19] [0.33] [0.37] [0.55]
Indonesia: 0.65 [0.62] [0.62] [0.47]
WORLDWIDE AVERAGE: 1.68 [1.72]
US: 1.95 [2.15] [2.15] [2.22] [2.3]
Russia: 2.41
Germany: 2.48 [2.70] [2.67] [2.82] [2.4]
India: 2.84 [2.57] [1.78] [0.97] [0.54]
Czechia: 3.08 [4.02] [5.14] [6.9] [10.2]
France: 3.36 [3.9] [4.46] [4.46]
Italy: 3.77 [4.32] [5.47] [6.27] [7.6]
Iran: 4.01 [4.52] [4.94]
Tunisia: 6.94
Poland: 7.22 [8.44] [12.42] [13.8] [13]
Peru: 8.59 [9.7] [10.63]
Colombia: 8.85 [9.43] [8.55] [7.23]
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 9.2 [13.23] [18.15] [19.75] [23]
Brazil: 9.75 [11.03] [11.45] [13.4] [14.6]
Hungary: 11.61 [15.83] [21.14] [24.8] [25.3]

   13043. Srul Itza Posted: May 11, 2021 at 12:12 PM (#6018259)
Saw a report the other day that Hawaii was the State most worried about Covid. The researchers, noting that Hawaii had the lowest case rate in the Country, appeared to think this was an odd reaction.

I think they may have the causation arrow backward here.
   13044. RJ in TO Posted: May 11, 2021 at 12:29 PM (#6018264)
In case anyone was considering rubbing cow dung on their face to fight Covid, don’t.
This would have been good to know yesterday.
   13045. GregD Posted: May 11, 2021 at 12:51 PM (#6018268)
Saw a report the other day that Hawaii was the State most worried about Covid. The researchers, noting that Hawaii had the lowest case rate in the Country, appeared to think this was an odd reaction.

I think they may have the causation arrow backward here.
The growth in tourism has dramatically increased the concern of my family on Kauai. They understand the impetus for it; their friends with businesses have all been in total collapse. But it's a staggering increase in people since early April. Think some of the other islands opened earlier and have had a longer glide back into tourism. But they work or worked in health care and education and social work and firefighting, and they would all say their fears increased dramatically the last month.
   13046. Srul Itza Posted: May 11, 2021 at 02:56 PM (#6018307)
Kauai has seen an uptick in cases with the reopening, but the numbers are still very low. The 7 day rolling average of cases is 3.9, and the 7 day average positivity rate for tests is 0.6%.

Kauai is different from the four main islands in being the most anti-development, and with possibly the least tourist infrastructure, which is to be expected, since it is also the smallest, population wise, of the four main islands. Still, tourism is the biggest industry, while at the same time, Kauai remained far more shut down than the other islands.
   13047. Srul Itza Posted: May 11, 2021 at 03:08 PM (#6018310)
On my NYT daily e-mail briefing this morning, there was a long discussion of how unlikely outdoor transmission really it. It noted that the CDC said that less that 10% of all cases are traced to outdoor transmission, but that the real number is more like 1% or possibly 0.1%. Essentially, the idea was (a) wear masks indoor and (b) don't bother outdoor unless you are in close conversation with someone possibly infected or in very crowded area.
   13048. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 11, 2021 at 05:38 PM (#6018353)
Yankees 3rd-base coach Phil Nevin has tested positive despite being fully vaccinated. I wonder if a false positive isn’t as likely as an actual case at this point. Contact tracing is reportedly underway, although I seem to recall that once a team was 85% vaccinated, vaccinated individuals no longer were quarantined on exposure.
   13049. GregD Posted: May 11, 2021 at 07:38 PM (#6018378)
Kauai has seen an uptick in cases with the reopening, but the numbers are still very low. The 7 day rolling average of cases is 3.9, and the 7 day average positivity rate for tests is 0.6%.
I'm not saying their worry is inherently justified. Just that they and their neighbors would rank high up any national chart of most anxious spots....even as they also have an incredibly low level....but they haven't gone through the stages of adjustment that other places have. In some ways they're a year behind the rest of us in experiencing the feeling of the uncertainty.....but they've certainly gone through an incredible economic cataclysm
   13050. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 11, 2021 at 08:00 PM (#6018381)
sweden (per worldometers):


(7 day moving averages
               new 
cases    deaths
apr 15 2020
:         497        95       
sep 11 2020
:         217         2     
dec 23 2020
:        7136        88               
apr 15 2021
:        6108        20 

   13051. Lassus Posted: May 11, 2021 at 08:13 PM (#6018385)
I just saw what I'm pretty sure was my first COVID treatment medical ad, for monoclonal antibodies. During the Mets game, which is kind of meta-hilarious.
   13052. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 11, 2021 at 09:07 PM (#6018402)
Cleveland Clinic finds 99.7% of caregivers who’ve recently tested positive for COVID-19 weren’t fully vaccinated

Not sure how dispositive that data is since it covers the past four months— I would rather see the data over the past month, when most people in that sample are vaccinated. I bet it shows something similar.

But yeah, if you’re vaxxed and test positive for COVID, a false positive has to be a decent possibility.
   13053. smileyy Posted: May 11, 2021 at 11:27 PM (#6018480)
   13054. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: May 12, 2021 at 01:02 AM (#6018488)
Dozens of bodies believed to be Covid-19 victims have washed up on the banks of the Ganges River in northern India as the pandemic spreads into India’s vast rural hinterland, overwhelming local health facilities as well as crematoriums and cemeteries.

Local official Ashok Kumar said that about 40 corpses washed up in Buxar district near the border between Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, two of India’s poorest states.


Link
   13055. SoSH U at work Posted: May 12, 2021 at 08:05 PM (#6018633)
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine announced the state will give away $1 million every week for five weeks in a lottery of vaccinated people.

   13056. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 12, 2021 at 09:08 PM (#6018640)
13055 -- Paying out of what?
   13057. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 12, 2021 at 09:10 PM (#6018641)
13053 -- The protester in the top photo looks to be at considerable risk for irregular menstruation, infertility, and miscarriages.
   13058. Tony S Posted: May 12, 2021 at 10:12 PM (#6018652)
So these anti-vax knuckleheads now want to mask up and hide from the rest of us?

This is not behavior I would discourage.
   13059. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: May 12, 2021 at 11:50 PM (#6018663)
13055 -- Paying out of what?
Allegedly the money is coming from Federal COVID relief or stimulus, but the details seem a bit sketchy. They also announced a lottery for an all expenses paid 4 year scholarship to an in state university for an under 18 year old who gets vaccinated.
   13060. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 06:32 AM (#6018666)
According to the financial times, Peru is now over 0.5% excess deaths for the population. Bulgaria is over 0.4%. Like most of Europe, Bulgaria has an aged population as compared to the US, so 0.4% is very high, but still within shouting distance of the US. Peru has a young population. It's pretty clear from Peru that if you have a more or less unmitigated outbreak and health system that can't handle it, IFR is well over 1% (as applied to a US age distribution).
   13061. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 13, 2021 at 08:07 AM (#6018670)
Those Peru numbers are almost too high to believe. I have no doubt they've been very hard hit (all of the worst-hit countries on an age-adjusted basis are in Latin America), but Peru has experienced 123% excess deaths since the beginning of 2020, and the next highest country is Nicaragua at 67%.
   13062. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: May 13, 2021 at 10:01 AM (#6018675)
So these anti-vax knuckleheads now want to mask up and hide from the rest of us?


Now to convince them that tightly secured plastic bags work far, far better than masks ...
   13063. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 10:03 AM (#6018677)
Those percentage numbers are very misleading, because they cover the period starting from 100 confirmed cases. For example, Bulgaria had 100 confirmed cases in March 2020, but didn't really have any significant deaths until November. That means there are months of 0% excess averaged in.

It's true Peru is still way high, but much less so if you compare to other nations like Mexico and Ecuador (which may still be undercounting excess deaths). While it may not be true for Peru (I don't know), the financial times is generally still conservative in how they count excess deaths. The financial times is definitely conservative when it comes to the US, as the numbers here have been over .2% by the end of March. (The financial times seems to be using the lower CDC "90%" estimate, rather than the mean CDC estimate.)

Close to final US official tallies are in for 2020 now. As expected months ago, there will be around 3,385,000 to 3,390,000 deaths recorded, which will be an increase of about 535,000 from last year. Depending on your baseline, that means excess deaths of 450,000 to 500,000 in 2020 alone. Excess deaths have not been much higher than recorded deaths in 2021, but you can safely add in another 200,000+ for 2021. This also for the most part doesn't count anyone who died of covid who would have died by now anyway, which the covid denialists are happy to tell us are a very huge number.

(The pull forward effect gets more pronounced over time, which is likely one of the reasons why places like Belgium seem to have more covid deaths than excess deaths.)
   13064. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 13, 2021 at 10:32 AM (#6018680)

Thanks, that makes sense. Peru is still at 123% while Mexico is at 55%, and I'm assuming based on the chart that Mexico doesn't have any 0% months in there, so I'm guessing there is something fishy with the baseline they are using for Peru relative to other Latin American countries (I'm not saying which one is right).
   13065. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 13, 2021 at 10:53 AM (#6018682)
Update on Florida numbers. They've been having some issues with their data files for the past week, so I had to update my script to handle that. So these numbers are as of yesterday, not as of Sunday like I've typically been posting.

Anyway, average age of a case has basically been flat around 35-36 for the past 6 weeks. The percentage But after a brief rise in late March-early April, cases have really been dropping for the past 4 weeks. This past week, reported cases were at their lowest level since October, and they had the fewest reported cases in the 60+ and 70+ age groups since mid-June of last year. I assume that this the result of vaccinations, which is great, but it's still frustrating to see any cases in those age groups. There were 1,250 new cases in the 70+ age group this past week. That group has a CFR of 8-10%, so you can do the math...

As I noted when I first started posting these updates, hospitalization rates (% of cases that require hospitalization) have increased since February. It was hard to tell whether this was the result of new variants that were more harmful, or whether they were more willing to hospitalize people with milder cases now that the hospitals are less full. Now, with another month of data, it looks like the CFRs have remained pretty steady in each age group. So my guess is that they are just admitting a greater percentage of COVID patients to the hospital, but the cases are not any more deadly than before. (It's too early to tell, but it looks like the CFR may even have come down slightly in recent months, which would be consistent with people getting better medical treatment now.)
   13066. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 11:53 AM (#6018687)
There are multiple things going on. Another is that Mexico (according to financial times estimates, which for Mexico are probably low) has had 2/3 the excess deaths as Peru, on a per population basis. That already raises the number from 55% to 82% or so (v 123% for Peru). Throw in the fact that Peru was expected to have fewer deaths than Mexico, on a per population basis, and that gets a little closer (maybe 90% v 123%). You only need to have the FT's estimates for Mexico be low by a little bit to have the numbers very similar.

Peru's FT numbers might be so high in part because by accounts I have read they are historically one of the best of any non-highly-developed country at keeping records of deaths, probably leading to lower undercounting.
   13067. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 12:01 PM (#6018688)
Bulgaria's expected death rate coming into 2020 was almost 3x Peru!! (and 2x the US). So in order to even start doing an apples-to-apples between Peru and Bulgaria, you have to multiply Bulgaria's excess percentage by close to 3.

This is all to say that it's likely indicative of a much more serious outbreak when a country with a young population, like Peru or Mexico, has around the same number of deaths per population, as a country with an older population, like Bulgaria. It's also a big reason why Texas has been among the poorest performing states in the country (on an age-adjusted basis), despite what superficially looks like below average (for the US) numbers. The other big reason is that Texas has also not been very good about recording the deaths it does have as covid.

edit: counting excess deaths and adjusting for age (against the US), Texas is at about (roughly) .3% of population. That's one of the highest in the country. That's pretty much the same as Bulgaria on an age-adjusted (against the US) basis.
   13068. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 12:23 PM (#6018691)
NY and NJ, counting excess deaths and age-adjusting are very similar to Texas now, right around 0.3%. Louisiana too. There are probably a few states that are higher (Mississippi for sure), and probably DC as well.
   13069. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 12:32 PM (#6018692)
Hungary just hit .3% recorded deaths today. But, at least according to the financial times, they don't have more excess deaths than recorded deaths, and might have slightly less. Assuming it's the same, on an age adjusted basis they are not as bad off yet as the worst US states, since like almost all the rest of Europe the population of Hungary is quite a bit older than the US.
   13070. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 13, 2021 at 12:52 PM (#6018695)
double post
   13071. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 13, 2021 at 12:53 PM (#6018696)

There are multiple things going on. Another is that Mexico (according to financial times estimates, which for Mexico are probably low) has had 2/3 the excess deaths as Peru, on a per population basis. That already raises the number from 55% to 82% or so (v 123% for Peru). Throw in the fact that Peru was expected to have fewer deaths than Mexico, on a per population basis, and that gets a little closer (maybe 90% v 123%). You only need to have the FT's estimates for Mexico be low by a little bit to have the numbers very similar.

Yeah, it seems like there's three potential sources of "error" here. Mexico has had 2/3 the excess deaths as Peru, but on a % basis it's not as high because Mexico had a higher baseline for expected deaths. That could be because (1) their baseline for Mexico is too high, (2) their baseline for Peru is too low, and/or (3) because Mexico is undercounting total deaths. I suppose there's (4), Peru is overcounting total deaths, but that seems highly unlikely. Or the numbers could be accurate and Peru really has just gotten hit much harder than anywhere else.

My initial hypothesis would be that the Peru baseline is too low rather than the other way around, because Mexico's excess death % is in line with a bunch of LatAm countries and Peru is the clear outlier. But looking at the charts accompanying the article, it doesn't really seem that way: Peru appears to have had a few months with a ton of excess deaths, then a few months with very few, then another few months with a ton. If their baseline were much higher, they'd have negative excess deaths during that middle period. So I'm not sure what to think.
   13072. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 13, 2021 at 01:02 PM (#6018699)

Bulgaria's expected death rate coming into 2020 was almost 3x Peru!! (and 2x the US). So in order to even start doing an apples-to-apples between Peru and Bulgaria, you have to multiply Bulgaria's excess percentage by close to 3.


Sorry, why would you multiply Bulgaria's percentage by 3 (assuming we're talking about excess deaths as a percentage of expected deaths)? Looking at it on this basis accounts for the fact that Bulgaria has a much older population than Peru (22% of Bulgaria's population is over 65, compared to about 7% for Peru). The fact that Peru has slightly more excess deaths as a % of its population, despite having 1/3 as many old people, means that Peru has had much worse outcomes when adjusted for age.

I'm surprised that Peru is so much higher than Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua or Mexico in this metric because those countries all have similar age structures.
   13073. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 13, 2021 at 01:34 PM (#6018703)
Oh, it mostly depends on what you are trying to compare. I think "percentage of expected deaths" is a strange metric, because I'm not at all sure it scales equally across populations with different age distributions. It is also highly dependent on other things, like generally how many people die in a year unrelated to age distribution, which can be quite dissimilar for different countries (and is even quite different for different US states). Basically I don't think it's a very useful metric to compare across countries, as it probably is more misleading than illuminating.
   13074. Hank Gillette Posted: May 14, 2021 at 11:26 PM (#6018910)
I'm surprised that Peru is so much higher than Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua or Mexico in this metric because those countries all have similar age structures.
Since COVID-19 affects lung function, could the altitudes of the respective countries possibly be a factor?

The average altitude of a country might not be the most accurate measure (since it doesn’t address the heights of the population centers), but

Country Average altitude

Peru 1,555 m (5,102 ft)
Ecuador 1,117 m (3,665 ft)

   13075. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: May 15, 2021 at 10:55 AM (#6018924)
There were health alerts in Peru about a dengue fever outbreak in 2020 - I don't know if it was ever determined whether that had an impact on excess deaths beyond those of Covid-19.
   13076. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 16, 2021 at 10:40 AM (#6019021)
The country’s largest union of registered nurses is not happy with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National Nurses United has condemned the CDC for its new guidance that says vaccinated people don’t have to wear masks in most settings and has called for a reversal. “This newest CDC guidance is not based on science, does not protect public health, and threatens the lives of patients, nurses, and other frontline workers across the country,” National Nurses United Executive Director Bonnie Castillo said in a statement. “Now is not the time to relax protective measures, and we are outraged that the CDC has done just that while we are still in the midst of the deadliest pandemic in a century.”

   13077. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: May 16, 2021 at 02:52 PM (#6019039)
[13076] Ignorant statement from the nurses. The CDC does not dictate public policy. Their statement was simply that vaccinated people don’t risk getting infected or spreading infection by being unmasked, which is true. They did not say that mask mandates should be dropped (and obviously, the easiest way to have unvaccinated people mask up to to simply require everyone to mask up).
   13078. Eudoxus Posted: May 17, 2021 at 12:52 PM (#6019111)
According to Worldometer, Gibraltar now has no active COVID cases. Given that until very recently Gibraltar has the highest (reported) per capita COVID death rate, not a bad success story for vaccines. (Gibraltar has given 74,000 doses of vaccine to its 33,700 residents.)

Gibraltar becomes the 14th country to become COVID-free. (Barbados, Falkland Islands, Gibraltar, Greenland, Grenada, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Montserrat, Saint Helena, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Pierre Miquelon, Solomon Islands, Tajikistan, Vanuatu. Tip for the next pandemic: move to a country whose name starts "Saint".) (Actually, Barbados according to Worldometer has a very impressive -1 active cases.) And it's by far the hardest-hit country to become COVID-free. (Montserrat was next, with a total death rate of 200/million, compared to 2791 for Gibraltar.)

By population, Tajikistan is by far the largest country to be COVID-free, with a population of 9.7 million compared to the runner-up Solomon Islands with a population of 700,000. I don't in fact believe that Tajikistan is COVID-free. (Actually, I'd be a bit skeptical for any of the fourteen countries, but the claim is ridiculous for Tajikistan. No place with a short land route to India is going to be COVID-free right now. I see that the State Department lists Tajikistan as "unknown level of COVID" and recommends no travel.)

For those of us not fortunate to live on an isolated island nation, obviously complete elimination of COVID isn't the endgame. I suspect the actual endgame is that between vaccinations and acquired immunities, COVID in most places eventually settles into some lowish level at which people are happy removing restrictions and not paying much attention to it. (At a guess, the US reaches a stable equilibrium at maybe 100-200 deaths a day.) With diminishing interest, it gets harder to find COVID numbers, and after a while it's just a background thing that most people don't track any more than they track flu deaths. There's the occasional flare-up that gets (hopefully!) rapidly treated with intensive local vaccination. I think the US could be at that point by the end of the summer; maybe another year before most of the world gets there.
   13079. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 17, 2021 at 03:55 PM (#6019230)
Gibraltar has given 74,000 doses of vaccine to its 33,700 residents.
That’s 2.2 shots per resident. Better too much than too little, I guess, but I wasn’t aware of any 3-shot vaccines.
   13080. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 18, 2021 at 11:48 AM (#6019392)
Within several days of the announcement, 18 states and many businesses announced an end to mask mandates for fully vaccinated people. With no infrastructure in place to verify a person’s vaccination status, this is based entirely on the honor system, which only goes so far. Already, social media has filled with anecdotal reports of people misrepresenting either their own vaccine status or the guidance itself, including a viral video of actor Ricky Schroder aggressively confronting a Costco employee about the chain’s continued masking requirements. It’s unclear whether Schroder is vaccinated, but as his apology included statements about “independence from medical tyranny,” it certainly seems plausible that he is not.

   13081. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 18, 2021 at 11:58 AM (#6019395)

Cases in India appear to have peaked about a week ago and coming down now. I give it at most a week before people start claiming (again) that India has reached herd immunity...
   13082. Eudoxus Posted: May 18, 2021 at 11:58 AM (#6019397)
Weekly numbers update:

US death rate, May 11 -> May 18: 648 -> 614; 5.2% decline
US case rate, May 11 -> May 18: 40395 -> 32090; 20.5% decline

I'm a little surprised to see cases falling so much more quickly than deaths. I would expect vaccine effects to be primarily visible in death rates. Hopefully this means we're up for some sharp death rate drops in the next few weeks.

Since April 1 of last year, the US has had a lower death rate only June 26 - July 8 of last summer. (That's six fewer days than last week.) Our case rate is the lowest it has been since June 23 of last summer.

Various states:

New Mexico: 0.48
Mississippi: 1
Arizona: 1.09
California: 1.37
Wisconsin: 1.38
Texas: 1.52
Lousiana: 1.52
New York: 1.85
Florida: 2.33
New Jersey: 2.69
Pennsylvania: 3.28
Michigan: 5.8

And international numbers:

Taiwan: 0 [0] [0] [0] [0] (but with two new deaths today, their first since April 24)
UK: 0.17 [0.15] [0.19] [0.33] [0.37] [0.55]
Indonesia: 0.56 [0.65] [0.62] [0.62] [0.47]
WORLDWIDE AVERAGE: 1.61 [1.68] [1.72]
US: 1.85 [1.95] [2.15] [2.15] [2.22] [2.3]
Czechia: 2.15 [3.08] [4.02] [5.14] [6.9] [10.2]
Germany: 2.36 [2.48] [2.70] [2.67] [2.82] [2.4]
France: 2.43 [3.36] [3.9] [4.46] [4.46]
Russia: 2.5 [2.41]
India: 2.95 [2.84] [2.57] [1.78] [0.97] [0.54]
Italy: 2.99 [3.77] [4.32] [5.47] [6.27] [7.6]
Iran: 3.29 [4.01] [4.52] [4.94]
Tunisia: 5.12 [6.94]
Poland: 6.27 [7.22] [8.44] [12.42] [13.8] [13]
Hungary: 7.81 [11.61] [15.83] [21.14] [24.8] [25.3]
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 8.28 [9.2] [13.23] [18.15] [19.75] [23]
Brazil: 8.96 [9.75] [11.03] [11.45] [13.4] [14.6]
Peru: 8.98 [8.59] [9.7] [10.63]
Colombia: 9.64 [8.85] [9.43] [8.55] [7.23]

South America overtaking eastern Europe as the hottest hot spot.


   13083. Eudoxus Posted: May 18, 2021 at 11:59 AM (#6019398)
I don't believe yet that the India numbers have peaked. (Don't disbelieve it, either.) I'm suspicious that the hot spots have just moved to rural areas where there's less thorough testing.
   13084. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 18, 2021 at 12:12 PM (#6019399)

#13083 certainly possible. It's still good to see the official numbers coming down -- two weeks ago I was worried they'd be at 500,000 daily cases by this point.
   13085. JL72 Posted: May 18, 2021 at 03:25 PM (#6019427)
I'm a little surprised to see cases falling so much more quickly than deaths. I would expect vaccine effects to be primarily visible in death rates. Hopefully this means we're up for some sharp death rate drops in the next few weeks.


I would guess it is a mix of deaths lagging cases while vaccinations are lowering the transmissions and resulting in asymptomatic cases. So the vaccinations have lowered cases by reducing them in number and the severity (so folks who have it don't even get tested). But the deaths are from cases 4-6 weeks ago when there were less vaccinated people.
   13086. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 18, 2021 at 04:09 PM (#6019438)
Yeah, cases and hospitalizations began a steady decline about a month ago. Hopefully we start to see deaths begin a similar trajectory about now.
   13087. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 20, 2021 at 10:40 AM (#6019916)
Iowa joins Texas in banning local mask mandates. Fun.
   13088. Eudoxus Posted: May 20, 2021 at 11:26 AM (#6019928)
My Texas university changes its mask policy today to make masks voluntary inside and outside. On the one hand, the timing is clearly a result of the Abbott order against local mask mandates, and that order is dumb, hypocritical, and politically self-serving. On the other hand, a relaxing of the rules was probably inevitable and even reasonably sensible in the near future. The university's proactive community testing program hasn't had a positive test result in about two weeks (over a thousand consecutive negative cases). Going maskless indoors for fully vaccinated people seems pretty safe (considerably safer, I'd guess, than going to the grocery store during flu season without a flu vaccine; maybe even safer than going with a flu vaccine given both base rates and vaccine efficacy rates), especially at a not-very-crowded-during-the-summer university. And the vaccination rates for the university population are quite high. At some point there has to be some experimentation with loosening up; I think this summer would be the right time for the university, and we're close enough to that now that I don't mind too much being part of the experiment.
   13089. Eudoxus Posted: May 20, 2021 at 11:29 AM (#6019932)
Nepal is a new hot spot, with death rate currently 6.78 deaths/million/day, which puts them in the eastern European range and not too far behind South America. The Nepal numbers increase my skepticism about the accuracy of the India numbers - I don't see any good reason for the death rate in Nepal to be 2.5-3 times the death rate in India, especially given that the India outbreak, from what I've seen, doesn't seem to be particularly clustered in the northeast of the country.
   13090. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: May 21, 2021 at 04:47 AM (#6020035)
That’s 2.2 shots per resident. Better too much than too little, I guess, but I wasn’t aware of any 3-shot vaccines.


Re: Gibraltar, I understand they're highly reliant on people in nearby Spanish towns commuting in to work there, so I guess it's quite possible that non-residents are some of those getting vaccinated.

In Germany, we've been told that from early June the prioritisation rules will be abandoned and vaccines will be available first-come, first-served, which would be highly pleasing. We still owe ourselves a 10th anniversary dinner from last April, and there are some surprisingly good steakhouses in town, so that'll be our celebration. After a rocky start, it looks like the EU threw a lot of money at Pfizer in particular to make up ground - none too soon, given that there are still hundreds of deaths per day being recorded in some countries.
   13091. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 21, 2021 at 01:28 PM (#6020077)
The Biden administration today announced that it’s teamed up with nine dating apps to add “vaccinated” badges and visibility boosts to user profiles, in its bid to get 70% of Americans at least half vaccinated by July 4th. The profile additions will launch over the next several weeks.

We’re on the honor system; the White House fact sheet announces that typically users respond to a yes/no prompt. As of now, the White House reports that participating apps include Tinder, Hinge, Match, OkCupid, BLK, Chispa, Plenty of Fish, Bumble, and Badoo.
...
In a press release, OkCupid reported that users planning to get vaccinated or who are already vaccinated got 14% more matches and 15% more likes. They also said that Millennials and Zoomers are more likely than Gen X to turn down a date with someone who’s vaccine-averse.

   13092. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 23, 2021 at 02:02 PM (#6020411)

Some positive signs in the US:

We're now at 38.9% of the population fully vaccinated, up from 36.2% a week ago. Opening it up for 12-17 year-olds is definitely accelerating things again, which is good. Even though the vaccination rate was slowing down for a bit, we were still vaccinating 0.2-0.3% of the population per day. That's progress, even if it's slower than it could be.

The case numbers are really falling now. On April 14, the US was averaging ~71,000 cases per day. Now, the average is about 26,000 and dropping every day.

There are now fewer than 30,000 people hospitalized with COVID for the first time since April 1, 2020.

Deaths are not falling quite as quickly as cases, but they are still dropping. The 7-day average for reported deaths is now at 578, the lowest level since July 8, 2020.
   13093. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 23, 2021 at 02:03 PM (#6020412)

It really does look like the India numbers are coming down now, which is a good thing. They peaked at an average of about 390,000 cases per day; the average is now around 260,000 per day. Even if it's now spreading in places where they're doing less testing, at least in the places where they're doing a lot of testing it's coming down.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/
   13094. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 26, 2021 at 02:53 PM (#6020967)
Why should a pandemic follow a curve like that? Is there something about the dynamics of disease transmission that makes the “cubic fit” a reasonable prediction for disease trajectory?

Nope. Farr didn’t even know how the disease was transmitted! It’s a characteristic feature of this kind of analysis, called “curve fitting,” that you can extrapolate from observed data without any knowledge of the mechanism underlying whatever real-life thing you’re studying. And Farr really didn’t have any knowledge. Not fully sold on the germ theory of disease, he thought the slowing of the spread came about because whatever poisonous substance was passing from cow to cow lost some of its noxiousness with each animal it passed through.

Despite his ignorance, curve-fitting turned out all right for Farr due to the specific circumstances of the rinderpest pandemic. A simple curve like the cubic is most likely to work when the disease is spreading under roughly constant conditions. The UK was engaged in a relentless nationwide effort to stamp out rinderpest, and the cows weren’t given a vote as to whether they liked social distancing or not. The effort to halt COVID-19 in the United States was a different story: geographically heterogeneous, and start-and-stop.
   13095. base ball chick Posted: May 29, 2021 at 05:35 PM (#6021524)
i've been gone a while, but has anyone read anything by puck or is it bad news
   13096. Ron J Posted: May 29, 2021 at 06:00 PM (#6021526)
BBC, Puck hasn't posted since April 10. He said he'd been to ICU on Apr 4 but was feeling better (but not good).

No way to say for sure that it's bad news but it's mighty concerning.

I don't know that anybody has contact information. The email he registered with apparently is no longer valid.
   13097. SoSH U at work Posted: May 29, 2021 at 06:34 PM (#6021528)
I sent an email to Jim seeing if he had access to more information about him, but I never heard back.
   13098. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: May 30, 2021 at 02:22 AM (#6021558)
but has anyone read anything by puck or is it bad news

I've asked here and Discord ... I think it's bad news. (though I hope it isn't)
   13099. bunyon Posted: May 30, 2021 at 02:46 PM (#6021584)
Does anyone know his real identity? Definitely not asking anyone to doxx him but maybe a Google search.

Anyway, it’s hard to be optimistic but I can imagine a convalescence where BBTF doesn’t seem important. Hope so.

   13100. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 30, 2021 at 08:12 PM (#6021614)

I tried to search for him using his old email address, but I didn't come up with anything. I don't know anything else about him unfortunately. Here's hoping that he's all right and just taking a break from BBTF.
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