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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 13033 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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Page 131 of 131 pages ‹ First  < 129 130 131
   13001. Ron J Posted: May 03, 2021 at 05:39 PM (#6016703)
12999. One of the things that appears to be happening is that getting the base strain doesn't seem to protect against the variants. So a straight case count is probably misleading.
   13002. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 03, 2021 at 06:13 PM (#6016705)
10 million cases would have 0.7% of the nation contracting COVID per day. Officially, they've had almost 20 million cases, so that multiplier would have them at over 40% of the population having already contracted it, and we'd start seeing a slowdown in new cases or at least positive rates in testing because of a lack of opportunity for the virus. Instead, it still looks like the daily numbers are growing.


It’s possible the multiple has only been that high over the past few weeks as things have spiraled out of control. Maybe there was a 5x multiple on the first 15 million cases and a 28x on the most recent 5 million cases. Like I said, I’m skeptical of 28x but I could believe 10-15x. The main point is nobody knows and nobody should assume herd immunity through infection is going to happen anytime soon.
   13003. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: May 03, 2021 at 07:17 PM (#6016712)
Looks like Pfizer will be receiving EUA to expand vaccination eligibility down to 12 years old. That would add another 16M to the eligible pool of vaccination candidates.
   13004. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 03, 2021 at 07:48 PM (#6016716)
Super happy about 12-15 approval. Lets vaxx as many as possible.
   13005. Eudoxus Posted: May 05, 2021 at 01:30 PM (#6017075)
April 26 -> May 4: 715 -> 718; 0.4% increase.

Death rate in the US has been flat for about two weeks now. I *think* at least some of this is working through the consequences of the recent Michigan surge, but there is a real worry about whether we've seen the bulk of the vaccination effect now. The good news is that cases are trending back down:

April 26 -> May 4: 58371 -> 49396; 15.4% decrease

That decrease involves Michigan being past its case peak. Hopefully that means in a week or two we start to see a corresponding drop in deaths. (Cases bottomed out last fall at about 36,000 per day; a month after that we hit the fall low for deaths, which was more or less where we are now for deaths.)

Some representative state death rates:

Mississippi: 1.67
Arizona: 1.51
Texas: 1.72
Louisiana: 1.74
California: 1.85
Wisconsin: 1.89
New York: 2.73
Florida: 2.88
Pennsylvania: 2.97
New Jersey: 3.15
New Mexico: 3.33
Michigan: 7

(The overall US average is 2.15 deaths/million/day.)

And the international survey (previous weeks' numbers to the right):

Taiwan: 0 [0] [0]
UK: 0.19 [0.33] [0.37] [0.55]
Indonesia: 0.62 [0.62] [0.47]
WORLDWIDE AVERAGE: 1.72
US: 2.15 [2.15] [2.22] [2.3]
India: 2.57 [1.78] [0.97] [0.54]
Germany: 2.70 [2.67] [2.82] [2.4]
France: 3.9 [4.46] [4.46]
Czechia: 4.02 [5.14] [6.9] [10.2]
Iran: 4.52 [4.94]
Italy: 4.32 [5.47] [6.27] [7.6]
Poland: 8.44 [12.42] [13.8] [13]
Colombia: 9.43 [8.55] [7.23]
Peru: 9.7 [10.63]
Brazil: 11.03 [11.45] [13.4] [14.6]
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 13.23 [18.15] [19.75] [23]
Hungary: 15.83 [21.14] [24.8] [25.3]

It looks like eastern and southern Europe are starting come down off their recent peak. The UK looks to me like the biggest success story around. Back in late January their deaths/million/day was 18.3; they're now down to about 1% the death rate they had then. (For comparison, the US is at about 20% of their January peak death rate.)
   13006. SoSH U at work Posted: May 05, 2021 at 02:10 PM (#6017085)
Got my second Pfizer on Monday and apparently defied the odds. After suffering a day's worth of flu-like symptoms after my first shot, I felt even worse, for longer, this time around.
   13007. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: May 05, 2021 at 03:08 PM (#6017099)
That sucks. For me, if not for the moderately sore shoulder I had no issues with either shot. So much so, I wonder if my body responded at all
   13008. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 05, 2021 at 03:15 PM (#6017101)
Yeah - I had Pfizer II yesterday afternoon, and thus far my body's reaction seems to be a big "meh."
   13009. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: May 05, 2021 at 03:33 PM (#6017110)
A friend of mine had his 2nd Pfizer early last week & was markedly fatigued (not his normal condition, unlike me) for about a day & a half, but that was it.

As noted previously, the couple of hours I felt like crap 1.5 days after mine may very well have had nothing to do with the vaccine. I'm at the point -- have been for quite some while, I'm afraid -- where such things aren't particularly unusual.
   13010. SoSH U at work Posted: May 05, 2021 at 04:47 PM (#6017134)
I'm at the point -- have been for quite some while, I'm afraid -- where such things aren't particularly unusual.


I'm the opposite. I couldn't tell you the last time I felt like that before my reactions to the shots.
   13011. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 05, 2021 at 05:09 PM (#6017144)
After weeks of back-and-forth discussions within the Biden administration, the U.S. is now preparing to back the temporary waiving of patent rights over covid-19 vaccines—a policy that advocates say is needed to speed up the production and acquisition of vaccines for developing countries. As part of its support, the US is expected to work with the World Trade Organization to negotiate the language of these waivers.

   13012. bunyon Posted: May 05, 2021 at 05:15 PM (#6017145)
Still no word on Puck?
   13013. Tony S Posted: May 05, 2021 at 06:29 PM (#6017167)
Indonesia seems unusually low. What are they doing differently?
   13014. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 05, 2021 at 06:45 PM (#6017176)
Indonesia seems unusually low. What are they doing differently?
chance.
   13015. Eudoxus Posted: May 05, 2021 at 07:15 PM (#6017181)
Indonesia seems unusually low. What are they doing differently?

Southeast Asia in general has had incredibly low COVID rates. Indonesia is actually one of the worst-hit countries in the area (along with the Philippines). Thailand, with a population of 7o million, has a total of 316 deaths for the entire pandemic (5% of their deaths were today!). Vietnam, witha population of 98 million, has had a total of 35 deaths. Laos, with a population of 7 million, has had no deaths at all -- it's by far the largest country with no deaths. (Next largest is the Solomon Islands, with a population of 700,000.)

I don't know what explains the low prevalence throughout southeast Asia, though.
   13016. PeteF3 Posted: May 05, 2021 at 09:14 PM (#6017205)
It was only a hypothesis and one made several months ago, but I've heard conjecture that Southeast Asia went through a coronavirus epidemic thousands of years ago and that descendants of the survivors of that epidemic may be more naturally resistant to similar viruses.
   13017. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 06, 2021 at 08:07 AM (#6017257)
#13016, Asians don’t seem to have a problem catching and dying from COVID in the US. They are 14% of the population and 12% of the COVID deaths in California, for example (as of early March, I haven’t checked for updated numbers). They are catching and dying from it at about the same rate as white people in NYC. I haven’t seen anything that specifically breaks out Southeast Asians but that strikes me as a very unlikely hypothesis.

Effective public health measures and some luck is my best guess for why East Asia has avoided the worst of COVID. Similar to Australia and New Zealand.
   13018. Eudoxus Posted: May 06, 2021 at 11:25 AM (#6017292)
Yeah, I'm also skeptical of the inherited immunity theory. As Dave notes, any good explanation needs to account for the very low rates in Australia and New Zealand. And there have got to be a lot more than 35 people in Vietnam not of southeast Asian descent. I think that, as with a lot of COVID matters, it's pretty unclear what's going on (I foresee a whole generation's worth of dissertation topics coming out of the pandemic), but to speculate wildly, I'd suspect a combination of (i) geographical factors, (ii) cultural factors, and (iii) random variation.
   13019. GregD Posted: May 06, 2021 at 01:27 PM (#6017307)
A lot of similar theories floated about why previous pandemics made south Asians resistant to Covid....until it turned out they weren’t.
   13020. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 06, 2021 at 05:00 PM (#6017399)
In my experience as an editor and a journalist, media institutions commonly use their resources not to interrogate the power systems in place within workplaces, but to prop up and validate them. Standard journalistic protocol dictates that vulnerable sources expose themselves to the public to gain a level of credibility that is automatically extended to those in positions of power. This is not the first time I’ve seen a story about my own workplace pass along the narrative offered by those at the top, while failing to speak for those who have most to lose.

   13021. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: May 06, 2021 at 08:37 PM (#6017451)
COVID-19 has caused 6.9 million deaths globally, more than double what official reports show


link

The really interesting thing to me about this study is that it concludes that behavioral changes saved 600k+ lives, yet Florida is still not red on their map. I was pretty surprised to see that Florida was not hit harder by the methodology.
   13022. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 07, 2021 at 11:11 AM (#6017543)

The really interesting thing to me about this study is that it concludes that behavioral changes saved 600k+ lives, yet Florida is still not red on their map. I was pretty surprised to see that Florida was not hit harder by the methodology.


That's a reduction of 600,000 non-COVID deaths (i.e. flu deaths, etc.), right? I don't think they purport to estimate the number of COVID deaths that were prevented.

Anyway, I find it interesting that they think Japan has had 108,320 COVID deaths, more than 10x the reported number. Kind of hard not to question the whole exercise when you see something like that. Japan actually had fewer overall deaths in 2020 than the prior year, likely because the decline in flu and some other deaths was greater than the increase from COVID deaths.
   13023. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: May 07, 2021 at 11:22 AM (#6017550)
So I had to stay and watch my kid do gymnastics yesterday. I'm fully vaxxed in a 25x10 room where masking was required. 2 women and their kids come in and sit in seats down the row, probably 10 feet from me. They were not masked.

I felt like my paranoia was stupid since I have no idea if they're vaxxed and I "should" be 95% protected, but I couldn't help feeling uncomfortable until they left 30 minutes later. I also felt almost dumb for still wearing a mask.

The next few decades are going to be a lot of fun.
   13024. Lassus Posted: May 07, 2021 at 11:53 AM (#6017557)
Here's a fun "everyone is crazy" COVID slice of life tale:

I've been involved in a workplace class for the last three days. 11 people, one per table, regular classroom size, regular ceiling height (not high). Masks required to come in, masks can be removed when sitting. Based on the classroom size described, and lack of open windows, I opted to wear my masks for the entirety of the class. I was the only one in the entire class who did so, including the instructor. I mean, whatever. A bigger room, a higher ceiling, windows open, as a fully vaccinated person, I MIGHT have unmasked. But I might not have. Anyhow.

You'd have to take my word for it, obviously, but I would consider myself at an easy 7 on the 1-10 COVID paranoia scale. Overly cautious, not crazy.

So here's the weird part: Portion of the class was fieldwork, outside. Not in a group, just generally wandering in a large open area. Could certainly stand together, could very easily not. My mask is off outside 99% of the time, and it was here. However, out of 11 total people, five people who did not have their mask on INside for the first 16 hours of the class put them on OUTside for the final two hours. And it wasn't like "someone might see me, see us", this was in an area with no other public at all, no one visible but the class. There was wind, even!

I admit to being kind of fascinated by that whole thing.
   13025. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 07, 2021 at 12:51 PM (#6017570)
the IHME did another thing (and this one's probably worth discussing here), but because nearly everything else they've done in the last 15 months has been "loud wrong", i'm going to go ahead and not post it.
   13026. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 07, 2021 at 03:00 PM (#6017610)

the IHME did another thing (and this one's probably worth discussing here), but because nearly everything else they've done in the last 15 months has been "loud wrong", i'm going to go ahead and not post it.


Isn't that the same thing we are talking about in #13021-22?
   13027. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: May 07, 2021 at 05:01 PM (#6017637)
However, out of 11 total people, five people who did not have their mask on INside for the first 16 hours of the class put them on OUTside for the final two hours. And it wasn't like "someone might see me, see us", this was in an area with no other public at all, no one visible but the class. There was wind, even!

This kind of story is why I keep banging my head against the wall with tshipman and outdoor masks. The virus clearly is much more dangerous inside than outside, but the public hasn't recognized that yet. Apparently some governments, presumably with accredited science advisors, haven't recognized the distinction either.
   13028. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 07, 2021 at 07:29 PM (#6017661)
Isn't that the same thing we are talking about in #13021-22?
now that you mention it, this criticism does seem to fit their MO:
Anyway, I find it interesting that they think Japan has had 108,320 COVID deaths, more than 10x the reported number. Kind of hard not to question the whole exercise when you see something like that. Japan actually had fewer overall deaths in 2020 than the prior year, likely because the decline in flu and some other deaths was greater than the increase from COVID deaths.
   13029. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 07, 2021 at 09:08 PM (#6017680)

I have a serious issue with anything that doesnt present ranges around such numbers. To their credit, the IHME projections always had a range, even if the high end of the range was often still way too low. I’m not sure why this report doesn’t. There are a number of elements of uncertainty in what they are trying to do, and when compounded they can lead to some pretty counterintuitive conclusions.
   13030. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 08, 2021 at 03:59 PM (#6017803)
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is finally acknowledging something that health experts have been saying for a while now: COVID-19 spreads through the air and can be inhaled by someone who is more than six feet away
...
Despite the change, some aerosol experts continue to say the CDC hasn’t gone far enough because it continues to say that transmission from far away is “uncommon,” which Marr said was “misleading and potentially harmful” because “if you’re in a poorly ventilated environment, virus is going to build up in the air, and everyone who’s in that room is going to be exposed.” The CDC’s wording “will lead people to continue to think that maintaining distance is sufficient to prevent transmission,” reads an open letter signed by seven experts, including Marr. “We know that transmission at distances beyond 6 feet occurs because of superspreader events, careful studies of smaller outbreaks, and the physics of aerosols. It can easily happen indoors in a poorly ventilated environment, when people are not wearing masks.”

   13031. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 08, 2021 at 04:05 PM (#6017807)
#13030 I seriously expected that article to be from May 2020. Is there anyone who didn't know that already in May 2021?
   13032. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: May 08, 2021 at 04:35 PM (#6017820)
#13031: The debate has been whether the virus spreads through the air in droplets, or absent droplets whether live viral particles can be transmitted through the air and spread infection.
   13033. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 08, 2021 at 08:41 PM (#6017862)
#13030 I seriously expected that article to be from May 2020. Is there anyone who didn't know that already in May 2021?
both the CDC and the WHO have dragged their feet on acknowledging this.

and as the story in [13024] shows, the lack of clarity is causing a lot of confusion.
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