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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 13488 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   13201. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: June 09, 2021 at 09:31 PM (#6023496)
Flip II
   13202. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: June 09, 2021 at 11:14 PM (#6023510)
@bbc
current stats
Location Doses given Fully vaccinated % of population fully vaccinated
Texas 23.7M 10.7M 37.0%

What could possibly go wrong?
   13203. GregD Posted: June 10, 2021 at 12:55 AM (#6023519)
Yikes

California is 54% fully
12% one dose

I knew there was a gap but that bad?
   13204. SoSH U at work Posted: June 10, 2021 at 01:05 AM (#6023521)
California is 54% fully


I'm seeing 45 percent fully for California. The Top 6 are the six New England states, with Vermont leading the way at nearly 60 percent fully vaccinated.
   13205. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 10, 2021 at 02:19 AM (#6023523)

The difference between the "best" and "worst" states by vaccination percentage is pretty striking. Mississippi is lowest with 28% fully vaxxed, while Vermont is at 59% (I'm looking at the NY Times tracker).

VT is at 72% with at least one dose, while MS is at 35%.

The only silver lining is that even in MS, 75% of those age 65+ have gotten at least one shot. So hopefully even if another wave hits them, the death toll will be a lot less. The disparity is much more pronounced in the lower age groups -- in VT, 59% of those age 12-17 have gotten at least one shot. In MS it's 7% (and Alabama 5%, and Idaho it says <1% although there might be something off with that data).

As for cruise ships, I never really saw the appeal, but I know people who like them and are eager to go back. No judgment from me, but if they don't have a vaccination requirement, I would think you're taking the risk that you have an outbreak on board and other countries won't let you come ashore.
   13206. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 10, 2021 at 02:36 AM (#6023526)

Also, I caught up with a former colleague from India yesterday. His father died of COVID during the most recent wave. This disease sucks.
   13207. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: June 10, 2021 at 08:46 AM (#6023540)
I’m flying from PHL today and the de facto social distance is 6”. It’s a total zoo. Thank goodness for TSA Pre-check.
   13208. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: June 10, 2021 at 09:52 AM (#6023551)

India’s daily tally of coronavirus deaths has reached more than 6,000 after a single state dramatically revised its data for fatalities during the second wave, increasing fears that the country’s toll is much higher than reported.
...
The revision came amid allegations that the state of Bihar had undercounted its death toll, which had led the high court in Patna to order a detailed audit that now includes those who died from Covid complications after recovering from the disease, and also those who died on the way to the hospital.
Similar accusations have been levelled at other state governments after a recent coronavirus surge resulted in crematoriums being overwhelmed in many places and hundreds of bodies being dumped in rivers or buried in shallow graves.

With record-keeping poor even in normal times, many experts believe India’s death toll is several times higher than the official number, meaning it could be more than a million, which would make it the world’s highest.

Graun
   13209. GregD Posted: June 10, 2021 at 01:44 PM (#6023596)
I'm seeing 45 percent fully for California.
got mine from the state’s page. It is labeled “two doses” so maybe the difference in the numbers is the people who have taken second dose in the last two weeks? ca state page
   13210. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 10, 2021 at 02:15 PM (#6023602)

GregD, CA's 54% number is as a percentage of the eligible population (12+). 45% is percentage of the total state population. The numerator should be the same.
   13211. GregD Posted: June 10, 2021 at 03:34 PM (#6023614)
Dave: You are right!

Thanks for the correction
   13212. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: June 10, 2021 at 09:07 PM (#6023666)
bitcoin convention.
florida.

enough said, right?
   13213. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 10, 2021 at 10:17 PM (#6023691)
I just bought tickets to tomorrow night’s Mets game — going to see deGrom pitch against the Padres. It’s my first sporting event or large gathering of any kind since the pandemic began, and I’m pretty psyched.
   13214. Howie Menckel Posted: June 10, 2021 at 10:48 PM (#6023713)
I went to see deGrom pitch at Citi Field on April 28.

he clearly didn't have his best stuff, vs Red Sox - he lost, 1-0.

it was a "sporting event" but not a "large gathering of any kind."

maybe 8,000 people there.

good luck!
   13215. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 10, 2021 at 11:42 PM (#6023723)

Thanks Howie. Capacity for tomorrow's game is supposed to be 33,000, but I don't expect actual attendance to be at that level given there were still a decent number of tickets available when I checked earlier. Probably >20,000 though.
   13216. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: June 14, 2021 at 01:04 PM (#6024117)
Cruises have never appealed to me, but after Covid, what kind of person would be itching to get on one?

College kids were having huge COVID parties to see who would catch it first. Some of them will never grow out of that mindset.
   13217. Tony S Posted: June 15, 2021 at 07:54 AM (#6024258)
What might have motivated this individual to do this?

"Tucker left the store without making his purchase, but immediately returned inside. Tucker walked directly back to the cashier, pulled out a handgun and shot her," the GBI said in a statement.


   13218. Eudoxus Posted: June 15, 2021 at 11:35 AM (#6024274)
Useful twitter thread on the delta variant. The case numbers in the UK are certainly concerning -- they've gone from a low of 28.9 case/million/day on May 6 to currently 109.4 cases/million/day, without any real sign of slowing yet, and that looks like it's largely a result of the delta variant.

On the other hand, India's case numbers, despite a rather alarming spike, have been dropping very fast. They peaked at 281.2 cases/million/day on May 8 (compare that to the US peak on January 11 of 771.5 cases/million/day), and have in the five weeks since then dropped back down to 58.8 cases/million.day, which is only slightly worse than the current US rate of 39.7 cases/million/day. If that's what a delta variant wave will look like: of course I'd rather not have us go through it, but it doesn't look apocalyptic. (As usual, there are questions about how reliable the numbers from India are.)
   13219. Eudoxus Posted: June 15, 2021 at 11:56 AM (#6024276)
Numbers update:

US death rate, June 8 -> June 15: 400 -> 348; 13% decline
US case rate, June 8 -> June 15: 14317 -> 13189; 7.9% decline

International numbers:

UK: 0.15 [0.12] [0.12] [0.17] [0.15] [0.19] [0.33] [0.37] [0.55]
Czechia: 0.28 [0.37] [0.65] [2.15] [3.08] [4.02] [5.14] [6.9] [10.2]
Japan: 0.56 [0.69]
Indonesia: 0.68 [0.63] [0.58] [0.56] [0.65] [0.62] [0.62] [0.47]
France: 0.84 [1.15] [1.87] [2.43] [3.36] [3.9] [4.46] [4.46]
Hungary: 0.94 [1.98] [2.6] [7.81] [11.61] [15.83] [21.14] [24.8] [25.3]
Germany: 0.96 [1.38] [1.88] [2.36] [2.48] [2.70] [2.67] [2.82] [2.4]
Taiwan: 1.01 [0.96] [0.58] [0] [0] [0] [0] [0]
US: 1.05 [1.21] [1.38] [1.85] [1.95] [2.15] [2.15] [2.22] [2.3]
Italy: 1.06 [1.08] [1.89] [2.99] [3.77] [4.32] [5.47] [6.27] [7.6]
WORLDWIDE AVERAGE: 1.16 [1.26] [1.41] [1.61] [1.68] [1.72]
India: 1.38 [1.99] [2.53] [2.95] [2.84] [2.57] [1.78] [0.97] [0.54]
Poland: 1.56 [2.59] [3.01] [6.27] [7.22] [8.44] [12.42] [13.8] [13]
Iran: 1.73 [1.73] [2.19] [3.29] [4.01] [4.52] [4.94]
Russia: 2.63 [2.55] [2.64] [2.5] [2.41]
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 3.68 [6.75] [4.29] [8.28] [9.2] [13.23] [18.15] [19.75] [23]
Tunisia: 6.47 [4.45] [4.58] [5.12] [6.94]
Brazil: 9.20 [7.77] [8.63] [8.96] [9.75] [11.03] [11.45] [13.4] [14.6]
Peru: 9.28 [10.65] [4.19] [8.98] [8.59] [9.7] [10.63]
Colombia: 10.76 [10.35] [9.9] [9.64] [8.85] [9.43] [8.55] [7.23]
Argentina: 12.78 [12.08] [11.25]
   13220. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 15, 2021 at 06:04 PM (#6024333)

As mentioned previously, I went to the Mets game on Friday and it was a blast. Showed my proof of vaccination on the NY Excelsior app, sat with a friend unmasked in a vaccinated section, ran into a bunch of old soccer teammates who I hadn't seen in 20+ years, and watched deGrom and the Mets beat the Padres 3-2.

There were probably 25-30k fans in the stadium and it got loud when the Mets were scoring.

They had set up McFadden's, the sports bar with an entrance outside Citi Field, as a vaccination center which was cool. I also took the train from Grand Central today and saw that they were offering the J&J shot on-site and a free train ticket if you got it. Good stuff and in both places I saw people in line to get the shots.

US case rate, June 8 -> June 15: 14317 -> 13189; 7.9% decline

Thanks for the updates as always Eudoxus. I've been following the numbers at the NY Times tracker and it kind of looks like things have plateaued around 13k-14k daily cases nationally. But there was a lot of noise around Memorial Day weekend and subsequent catch-up days, and they present their data as a 14-day average, so it will still be another few days before that works its way out of their averages.

I would expect the daily average deaths to continue to decline at this point, however, because

1. Cases have declined substantially since mid-April, when they were over 70k per day, and there's a lag in the reporting of deaths.
2. The older, more vulnerable age groups are disproportionately vaccinated, so a greater percentage of cases are in younger age groups with lower fatality rates. Nationwide, 76% of those 65+ are fully vaccinated, but only 44% of the overall population.

We can see some of the effect on the fatality rate in FL, where the CFR declined from 1.3-1.5% during the winter peak to 0.7-0.8% for cases diagnosed in more recent weeks. I'm looking at cases from at least 6 weeks ago so I don't think this due to a reporting lag. The CFR seems to have stabilized around late March and held steady through early May. This also corresponds to when the percentage of cases in the 60+ age group stabilized around 12-14%. It had previously been 20-24% prior to the vaccine rollout.)

I am reluctant to extrapolate Florida data nationally, but if the 0.7-0.8% CFR holds nationwide, then with 13-14k daily cases we should see the daily deaths eventually decline to ~100. Fingers crossed and still hoping we can do better.
   13221. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 15, 2021 at 08:24 PM (#6024350)
Went to Pirates @ Nationals yesterday, my first game since Washington, D.C. Covid restrictions were largely removed on 6/12. Masks were not required for fully vaccinated spectators, and I only saw a few in the ballpark, or on the street outside, although proof of vaccination wasn’t required. The crowd was less than 15,000 - below what had been the old capacity limit, so not much of a test. Attendance seems not have fully bounced back yet most places, based on my unscientific sampling of the box scores, but folks that do show up seem more willing to go maskless at a ballpark than a grocery store. Despite the CDC guidance, Virginia lifting the mask requirement for those vaccinated, and stores following that guidance, I’m still seeing 90% or more wearing a mask at the two large chain grocery stores I normally patronize. Most of those folks are likely fully vaccinated, based on the local stats, so there seems to be some lingering vaccine-skepticism among those already vaccinated. A bit weird.
   13222. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 15, 2021 at 08:55 PM (#6024356)
Riding the trains a fair amount over the past few weeks in NY, which still require masks, I’ve seen compliance probably around 80-90% and enforcement limited. Occasionally the conductor will say something.

I’ve also started going back to the gym recently (would have done it sooner but I had a bike accident in March and couldn’t do much for a month). When I first went back, masks were still required. Then masks were optional and probably 75% were wearing them. Today I would say it was 10%. Doesn’t bother me but I’m sure not all those people are vaccinated. And that is why we may be plateauing at this level of cases (although NYC looks like it may still be declining).
   13223. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 16, 2021 at 12:43 AM (#6024458)
Dodgers broadcast claims a sellout for tonight’s Dodger Stadium “reopening”, although there were some empty seats visible on TV. Not sure if those fans arrived late, or left early.
   13224. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: June 16, 2021 at 07:04 AM (#6024472)
Most of those folks are likely fully vaccinated, based on the local stats, so there seems to be some lingering vaccine-skepticism among those already vaccinated. A bit weird.


Or an understanding that a mask mandate for unvaccinated people is likely to be more successful if vaccinated people are willing to wear one as well, of course. I'm not vaccinated yet, but after I am, I would be content to continue to mask up if it would help compliance among the unvaccinated. (Though the mandates are still in place where I live, so it's somewhat a moot point.)

New cases here in Germany dipped below 1000 for the first time in a very long time, so Delta does not yet appear to be wreaking havoc. Vacation frenzy is apparently particularly strong here, though, so I'm not sure what the summer will look like. Certainly I was not expecting - given the relative disparity in vaccination rates - that the limits on my planned travel to the UK would be due to the infection rates on the UK side of the equation.
   13225. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 16, 2021 at 05:05 PM (#6024606)
New York lifted most of its restrictions yesterday, upon hitting 70% of people having received their first dose. Masks are still required in healthcare settings and on public transportation, but not in most other situations.

I have always been of the view that restrictions should be lifted based on case numbers, rather than percentage previously infected or vaccinated. But it’s hard to argue too much with the changes.
   13226. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 16, 2021 at 11:27 PM (#6024678)

Citi Field is lifting all capacity restrictions and vaccination requirements starting June 21. New York is averaging about 2 cases per 100,000 people daily, and we'll be at single digits in daily statewide deaths soon. I wanted them to wait a few months to fully reopen back in April, but I can't complain about this decision now.
   13227. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: June 17, 2021 at 12:20 PM (#6024748)
We travelled in the last week to the niece's reboot of her June 2020 wedding cancellation. After doing nothing for 15 months, I've suddenly eaten in a restaurant at least 5 times in the last two weeks. My youngest is fully vaccinated today, so the whole family is vaccinated and ready to return to normal.

I wish the rest of the country would join us in getting vaccinated. Patriots Get Vaccinated.

   13228. Eddo Posted: June 17, 2021 at 01:26 PM (#6024762)
I have always been of the view that restrictions should be lifted based on case numbers, rather than percentage previously infected or vaccinated. But it’s hard to argue too much with the changes.

I don't necessarily disagree from an analytical point of view, but I think it's easier to base the lifting on a permanent thing over a temporary one, so that mandates don't have to be removed then reinstated when cases go back up.
   13229. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: June 17, 2021 at 01:41 PM (#6024765)
I went to Dodger Stadium last night. The stadium was packed. There were a few people wearing masks, but it was a small minority. I went to a restaurant beforehand and a bar afterwards with some friends. Again, no masks needed anywhere. I actually did put one on for a little bit in the bar, not because of Covid, but because somebody at a near by table started smoking and I can't stand the smell. And the interesting thing is that it didn't feel the slightest bit odd that the restrictions I've been following for the last year are gone. It just felt natural going out mask free.
   13230. Lassus Posted: June 17, 2021 at 02:09 PM (#6024776)
It's definitely felt slightly weird to me, but only slightly.
   13231. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 17, 2021 at 02:16 PM (#6024779)
From The Washington Post: The Maddening Persistence of ‘Hygeine Theater’:
At an ice cream shop in Rockville, Md., gloved servers scoop the frozen treat into cups, but a sign taped to the front window says “No cones: Covid.” At McDonald’s outlets along I-95 in Virginia, yellow police-style tape cordons off self-serve beverage stations. And at Nationals Park, baseball fans use a QR code and digital menu rather than ordering directly from the person who hands them their hot dog.

None of these precautions provide meaningful protection against the spread of the coronavirus, safety experts say. Instead, they are examples of what critics call “hygiene theater,” the deployment of symbolic tactics that do little to prevent the spread of the coronavirus but may make some anxious consumers feel safer. (The term is widely credited to Atlantic writer Derek Thompson, who catalogued ineffective but showy anti-covid tactics last summer.)

As the covid death rate plummets in America and the number of vaccinations soars, the persistence of these practices is seriously frustrating folks who argue that their vaccinated status should free them from such annoying restrictions.
It’s taken somewhat longer to relax these restrictions than I would have thought, but it appears that that a tipping point is at hand. Once you let 50,000 people gather in a ballpark, you can’t really claim that most other restrictions really matter, especially for those fully vaccinated.

Much more at link, including how Nationals Park is addressing some issues.
   13232. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 17, 2021 at 02:40 PM (#6024788)
I don't necessarily disagree from an analytical point of view, but I think it's easier to base the lifting on a permanent thing over a temporary one, so that mandates don't have to be removed then reinstated when cases go back up.

But if cases and deaths go back up significantly despite 70% of people being vaccinated (in NY), we *should* consider reinstituting certain restrictions. Lifting restrictions based on vaccination rates is predicated on the notion that the vaccines are effective. And the recent trends certainly seem to back that up. But if that somehow proves not to be the case -- i.e. if there is a variant against which the vaccines are completely ineffective -- I'd want to rethink that strategy. I'd certainly rethink some of my own behavior regardless of what the state says.
   13233. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 17, 2021 at 02:50 PM (#6024791)
#13230 - yeah, it feels a bit weird to me. I am still wearing my mask at the gym even though I'm in the small minority now. I assume I'll give it up soon enough.

#13231 - I mean, it's not maddening to me, but yeah it was pointless and kind of annoying for a few weeks when my gym wasn't requiring masks but they still wouldn't turn the water fountains back on. That being said, I actually like pulling up a QR-code menu rather than having to look at a physical one.
   13234. Greg Pope Posted: June 17, 2021 at 03:13 PM (#6024796)
I actually like pulling up a QR-code menu rather than having to look at a physical one.

Not me. Two things. First, I can usually read a menu without my readers, but no way I can read one on the phone without them. Second, there's a lot of pinching and moving the menu on the phone to find everything. I find that pretty annoying. Just a personal preference.
   13235. Eddo Posted: June 17, 2021 at 03:46 PM (#6024798)
Not me. Two things. First, I can usually read a menu without my readers, but no way I can read one on the phone without them. Second, there's a lot of pinching and moving the menu on the phone to find everything. I find that pretty annoying. Just a personal preference.

Also, so many places have dinner, lunch, drinks, and desserts on different PDFs. To switch between them on a phone is annoying, especially compared to just flipping a sheet of paper over.
   13236. Eddo Posted: June 17, 2021 at 03:48 PM (#6024800)
But if cases and deaths go back up significantly despite 70% of people being vaccinated (in NY), we *should* consider reinstituting certain restrictions. Lifting restrictions based on vaccination rates is predicated on the notion that the vaccines are effective. And the recent trends certainly seem to back that up. But if that somehow proves not to be the case -- i.e. if there is a variant against which the vaccines are completely ineffective -- I'd want to rethink that strategy. I'd certainly rethink some of my own behavior regardless of what the state says.

Sure, I was just thinking that infection rates are far more likely to go up and require changing of rules, at least compared to the so-far-effective vaccines. (I also suspect if infection rates had stayed high despite vaccinations being over 70%, you wouldn't see the removal of restrictions.)
   13237. Snowboy Posted: June 18, 2021 at 04:16 PM (#6024986)
News: Canada-U.S. border closure extended again, until July 21

"we are extending restrictions on non-essential international travel and with the United States until July 21st, 2021" wrote federal minister of public safety Bill Blair, on twitter.
   13238. Lassus Posted: June 18, 2021 at 09:48 PM (#6025052)
Once you let 50,000 people gather in a ballpark, you can’t really claim that most other restrictions really matter

There's a difference between ballgames and bars. Think hard.
   13239. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 18, 2021 at 11:25 PM (#6025108)
There's a difference between ballgames and bars. Think hard.
Not according to the CDC:
Recommendations for Indoor and Outdoor Settings

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection is minimal for fully vaccinated people. The risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from fully vaccinated people to unvaccinated people is also reduced. Therefore, fully vaccinated people can resume activities without wearing a mask or physically distancing, except where required by federal, state, local, tribal, or territorial laws, rules, and regulations, including local business and workplace guidance.
Trust the science.
   13240. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 19, 2021 at 12:09 AM (#6025115)
There were some interesting Twitter posts earlier from a famous writer who claims that she has a serious case of COVID again, after previously being a COVID long-hauler last year and also after getting fully vaccinated. She claims she's only gone out in public without a mask once (last week) and got reinfected from that. I'm not posting her name here because she subsequently made her Tweets private so I assume she no longer wants the publicity.

I'm sympathetic to her situation -- whatever illness she's now battling sounds pretty bad -- but she wouldn't answer whether she had tested positive for COVID this time around (so she either hasn't gotten tested, or she tested negative). And her symptoms this time are different than when she originally got COVID.

None of the above rules out a second serious COVID illness, but it seems possible to me that she's having a long-COVID flare-up or just has a different ailment. I think the odds that someone who previously had COVID, and was vaccinated, and had only one in-person interaction, contracted a serious case of COVID again are pretty low, especially given the low case numbers nationally. Is it impossible? No. But she was using this as evidence that it's not safe to go unmasked now even if you're vaxxed (and other people were going further in the comments, calling for the head of the CDC to be fired and criminally charged). It just seems to me like you'd at least want to get tested before making such statements.

Not sure why I mention all this here, but it reminded me of back in April when everyone who had been sick in December 2019 - January 2020 became convinced that they'd had COVID (including several members of my immediate family). Again, you can't completely rule it out, but it was statistically unlikely given what we know about how prevalent COVID was in the US at that time (unless they got an antibody test showing that they'd had it).
   13241. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 19, 2021 at 09:01 AM (#6025141)
Apparently she never tested positive for COVID last year, either.
   13242. GregD Posted: June 19, 2021 at 10:07 AM (#6025149)
Someone is making a run for Naomi Wolf’s crown
   13243. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 19, 2021 at 10:40 AM (#6025152)
I don't think she's like Naomi Wolf. Wolf is a charlatan who had serious problems with the research in her own field, but then purports to interpret scientific research and give medical advice on Twitter in order to gain attention.

I don't think this woman is seeking attention -- as I noted, her account is now private. I also believe she is dealing with serious medical symptoms personally, and she's searching for an explanation. I'm sympathetic to that. I'm just skeptical of whether she has COVID now and I'm not even sure that she had it last year (apparently she did not test positive for the virus or for antibodies last year. She did test positive for antibodies after getting vaccinated).
   13244. Lassus Posted: June 21, 2021 at 09:26 AM (#6025516)
States most vulnerable to COVID are also some of the least vaccinated

Is the answer as to why New York State is the only dark green state (high vulnerability/high vaccination) basically "New York City"?
   13245. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 21, 2021 at 11:24 AM (#6025531)
Lassus, you can see the map by county here and then filter by overall vulnerability. Short answer is it’s partly but not entirely driven by NYC. Some of the upstate counties are also classified as more vulnerable. Hard for me to fully understand what drives their vulnerability model — looks like many factors including non-English speakers, socioeconomic status, health care availability, population density, among others.
   13246. Lassus Posted: June 21, 2021 at 01:08 PM (#6025547)
Thanks, Dave. It just struck me as odd that New York State was the ONLY one with that color coding.

Also, if I may ask you or ANYONE, my wife is currently sending out emails for a pre-school dance camp in late July and we're a bit stuck on the masking policy at this point for ages 3-4. We've been super-careful the whole time, ZOOM dance classes, fully masked in person, etc. For this she's thinking mask optional. As such, we're looking for data for CASES for ages 3-4, or 1-5, etc. While there's a lot of data on DEATHS by age, CASES by age (especially that young) is kind of a shitshow.

Do any of y'all data crunchers have a source for cases as opposed to deaths?
   13247. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 21, 2021 at 01:24 PM (#6025556)

Lassus, what specific data are you looking for, or what question are you trying to answer?
   13248. Lassus Posted: June 21, 2021 at 01:44 PM (#6025561)
Lassus, what specific data are you looking for, or what question are you trying to answer?

Simply COVID case number totals for pre-schoolers. There are CDC links for deaths, but not cases that I can find.

The argument that is (possibly) being made is that pre-schoolers can congregate without masks with little to no risk.
   13249. jmurph Posted: June 21, 2021 at 02:12 PM (#6025567)
The argument that is (possibly) being made is that pre-schoolers can congregate without masks with little to no risk.

I can't find a list at the moment, but personal experience and friends that I can think of in other places with little kids, masks were never required for the 5 and under crowd in numerous states, at any point in the pandemic.

(To be clear I'm offering no take on the merits of that decision!)
   13250. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 21, 2021 at 02:13 PM (#6025568)
Here's the data for Florida (I don't have it for other states):

There are cases in young children. Through the end of May, FL reported 62k cases in the 0-5 age group, of which 21k were age 3-4. That's 2.7% and 0.9% of total reported cases in the state. The percentages were slightly higher in May (4.2% and 1.4%, respectively) as older age groups have been getting vaccinated and comprise a smaller portion of cases.

Hospitalization rates are quite low in those age groups - 0.6% of those diagnosed with COVID were hospitalizaed for 3-4, and 1.2% for 0-5. Those are basically similar to the hospitalization rates for every age group until you hit age 30 and it slowly starts to increase.

There have been only 2 reported COVID deaths in the 0-5 age group, out of those 62k cases.

I don't know what the implications are for your wife's dance camp -- there may be actual studies out there of whether pre-schoolers spread it (versus just catching it from older family members), or guidance/requirements from the state on what to do. There's probably no right or wrong answer as long as you're transparent with the parents as to what the policy will be. If you guys are vaccinated I would think the risk to *you* is quite low.
   13251. Lassus Posted: June 21, 2021 at 02:36 PM (#6025575)
I can't find a list at the moment, but personal experience and friends that I can think of in other places with little kids, masks were never required for the 5 and under crowd in numerous states, at any point in the pandemic.
(To be clear I'm offering no take on the merits of that decision!)
Thank you, and totally understood.


Dave - that data IS what I was looking for, thank you very much. You're a credit to the organization. Do you have a source, or are you part of the FL data criminal case? :-)
   13252. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 21, 2021 at 04:10 PM (#6025591)
No problem Lassus. Good luck figuring things out, I know we're in this weird limbo right now where official guidance is unclear (I'm on the board of my co-op and we are trying to figure out what the mask policy should be in the building going forward).
   13253. Ron J Posted: June 21, 2021 at 04:37 PM (#6025599)
13252 The obvious answer is to forbid any access to common areas. Then you don't have to take a position on masking.

And think of the fun of rappelling to the ground.

Going up won't be nearly as much fun though.
   13254. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 21, 2021 at 08:48 PM (#6025651)
Lassus, sorry I missed your question about my source.

For a while, the Florida Department of Health posted a data file each day that listed every COVID case in the state, along with some demographic data (age, county of residence), and some other data such as the date of the case, whether the person was hospitalized, and whether they died. They stopped publishing these files a few weeks ago but they were very good about it for a while. You can find an archive of all the historical files here*.

With over 2 million cases in the state the files are enormous, so I wrote a script in Python a while back to parse through the data and create my own reports. So the reports are my own but the data comes from the Florida DOH and is publicly available.

* For a while they were only posting the files in Excel and PDF format, which isn't as conducive to this kind of analysis (at least not with my rudimentary coding skills). But then they switched to CSV (probably because the files were too big in other formats), which made my task a lot easier. I was able to get some of the older files in CSV format as well, from a friend who saved them from an old DOH page that no longer exists.
   13255. Eudoxus Posted: June 22, 2021 at 12:28 PM (#6025702)
Numbers update:

US death rate, June 15 -> June 22: 348 -> 296; 15% decline
US case rate, June 15 -> June 22: 13189 -> 11502; 12.8% decline

The US is now under 1 death/million/day, and the COVID death rate is now somewhere around the death rate for flu in peak flu season in a moderately bad flu season.

(A rough guide for eyeballing COVID death-per-million numbers:

<1: COVID basically under control. (Right now 150 of the 200 countries tracked by Worldometer are in this range.)
2-4: COVID more or less puttering along. (32 countries in this range, such as Russia, Mexico, Malaysia.)
4-8: Serious COVID outbreak. (Another 11 countries. Peru, Tunisia, Bosnia-Herzegovina)
8-15: Crisis-level COVID (hospitals overwhelmed, etc). (7 of these right now, 6 South American countries and Namibia.)

Not too long ago a bunch of the eastern European countries were in the 20-25 range. For comparison, NYC at the peak in last April was somewhere around 100 deaths/million/day.)

International numbers (Worldometer has added a "weekly trends" section that also allows an easy look at this sort of data.)

Czechia: 0.09 [0.28] [0.37] [0.65] [2.15] [3.08] [4.02] [5.14] [6.9] [10.2]
UK: 0.16 [0.15] [0.12] [0.12] [0.17] [0.15] [0.19] [0.33] [0.37] [0.55]
Japan: 0.40 [0.56] [0.69]
Hungary: 0.52 [0.94] [1.98] [2.6] [7.81] [11.61] [15.83] [21.14] [24.8] [25.3]
Italy: 0.59 [1.06] [1.08] [1.89] [2.99] [3.77] [4.32] [5.47] [6.27] [7.6]
France: 0.70 [0.84] [1.15] [1.87] [2.43] [3.36] [3.9] [4.46] [4.46]
Taiwan: 0.71 [1.01] [0.96] [0.58] [0] [0] [0] [0] [0]
Germany: 0.81 [0.96] [1.38] [1.88] [2.36] [2.48] [2.70] [2.67] [2.82] [2.4]
India: 0.89 [1.38] [1.99] [2.53] [2.95] [2.84] [2.57] [1.78] [0.97] [0.54]
US: 0.89 [1.05] [1.21] [1.38] [1.85] [1.95] [2.15] [2.15] [2.22] [2.3]
Indonesia: 0.95 [0.68] [0.63] [0.58] [0.56] [0.65] [0.62] [0.62] [0.47]
Poland: 0.98 [1.56] [2.59] [3.01] [6.27] [7.22] [8.44] [12.42] [13.8] [13]
WORLDWIDE AVERAGE: 1.06 [1.16] [1.26] [1.41] [1.61] [1.68] [1.72]
Iran: 1.48 [1.73] [1.73] [2.19] [3.29] [4.01] [4.52] [4.94]
Russia: 2.94 [2.63] [2.55] [2.64] [2.5] [2.41]
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 6.44 [3.68] [6.75] [4.29] [8.28] [9.2] [13.23] [18.15] [19.75] [23]
Tunisia: 6.58 [6.47] [4.45] [4.58] [5.12] [6.94]
Peru: 7.39 [9.28] [10.65] [4.19] [8.98] [8.59] [9.7] [10.63]
Brazil: 9.62 [9.20] [7.77] [8.63] [8.96] [9.75] [11.03] [11.45] [13.4] [14.6]
Argentina: 10.86 [12.78] [12.08] [11.25]
Colombia: 11.71 [10.76] [10.35] [9.9] [9.64] [8.85] [9.43] [8.55] [7.23]

The UK drops out of "lowest rate" status of the countries I'm tracking. The case surge there is worrying (their raw case numbers are about to go above the US's), but so far it's having a limited effect on deaths.

Worldwide COVID deaths are at 8107, which is the lowest since November 7 of last year. The low point since April of last year was 4882, on June 1. About 43% of deaths at this point are in South America. South Americam has about 5.5% of the world's population. So roughly, COVID death rates per million per day are abou 8.25 in South America and about 0.64 elsewhere. At this point this is much more a South American epidemic than a true global pandemic. That, I think, is partly a story about vaccine distribution disparities, but also partly a story about some collection of factors, mostly opaque to me, that have made South America particularly vulnerable to COVID. (Maybe one factor right now is that it's winter there.)

   13256. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 22, 2021 at 12:47 PM (#6025705)
The UK claims to have vaccinated just about everyone over the age of 60 (like, 95+% fully vaxxed with both doses). Even in the 50-64 range vax rates are still extremely high. They haven’t done very many young people, and relatively few below age 25, which is probably why there has been an increase in cases. There will be an increase in deaths from the recent wave, but I would be surprised if it is very high.
   13257. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: June 24, 2021 at 04:59 PM (#6026168)
An Associated Press analysis of available government data from May shows that “breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of more than 853,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations. That’s about 0.1%.

And only about 150 of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people. That translates to about 0.8%, or five deaths per day on average.

...Only about 45 states report breakthrough infections, and some are more aggressive than others in looking for such cases. So the data probably understates such infections, CDC officials said.
   13258. Tony S Posted: June 25, 2021 at 08:37 AM (#6026275)
Ha! I love this.

Among the ways it’s doing this is by requiring multiple tests for adults who refuse to show proof of a vaccine. A negative test from within the past 72 hours is required, followed by a second test at the terminal. A third test will be taken within 24 hours before disembarkation. Tests two and three will be conducted by a third party contracted by the cruise line. Those two tests will cost a combined $136 per person, charged to the guest’s onboard expense account.


   13259. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 25, 2021 at 04:44 PM (#6026342)
An Associated Press analysis of available government data from May shows that “breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of more than 853,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations. That’s about 0.1%.

I honestly don't understand what they're measuring here. There were like an average of 30,000 people hospitalized with COVID on any given day in May -- that's not new people hospitalized each day, it's people admitted to the hospital at any given time. So I have no idea how there could have been 853,000 hospitalizations in May.

I suspect they're adding the number of people hospitalized at the end of each day as though it were some sort of cumulative statistic.

Not going to look it up right now, but I would guess that there have been 1-2 million COVID hospitalizations in the US through the entire pandemic.

EDIT: OK, I did look it up. Since the CDC started tracking it at the beginning of August 2020, there have been 2.3 million hospitalizations. So the total number since the beginning of the pandemic is probably more like 3 million. But the number for May, eyeballing their chart, is closer to 90,000, not 853,000.
   13260. bunyon Posted: June 25, 2021 at 05:30 PM (#6026350)
Is the 1200 likewise additive or is it 1200 out of 90000?
   13261. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 25, 2021 at 05:47 PM (#6026359)
No idea, it’s a relatively low percentage either way.
   13262. Hank Gillette Posted: June 27, 2021 at 12:12 AM (#6026521)
OK, I did look it up. Since the CDC started tracking it at the beginning of August 2020, there have been 2.3 million hospitalizations. So the total number since the beginning of the pandemic is probably more like 3 million. But the number for May, eyeballing their chart, is closer to 90,000, not 853,000.


That does seem a little whacked. But a more important statistic is this: 99.2% of the people dying of COVID in May were unvaccinated.
   13263. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: June 27, 2021 at 03:17 AM (#6026527)
Here in Germany, my wife and I finally have our appointments at the local vaccination centre. There's about a 6-week gap at the moment between the two jabs, but I'm hoping we might be able to reduce that with some judicious re-booking in July. I rather had my hopes sent on being out of the 14-day window from my second dose in late August, since my grandmother in the UK turns 96 the day before my birthday, and we try to visit her every year on those dates. Fish and chips, with ice cream to follow, on the beach of a faded English seaside town, has seldom seemed more enticing.
   13264. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 27, 2021 at 10:55 PM (#6026605)
That does seem a little whacked. But a more important statistic is this: 99.2% of the people dying of COVID in May were unvaccinated.

Yes, that's fantastic, but I'm still constantly amazed by the basic math/statistical errors in these articles.

According to the analysis of government data from May, released on Thursday, out of the 18,000 Covid-19 deaths during the month, approximately 150 were fully vaccinated people. That comes out to 0.8 percent, or an average of five deaths per day out of more than 200 average daily deaths.


18,000 deaths in May would be 581 per day. I mean, I guess that's *technically* more than 200, but it's a strange way of expressing it.
   13265. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: June 28, 2021 at 03:57 AM (#6026616)
Guardian reports that Italy is now classifying the whole country as a "low-risk zone" for Covid, which is quite a turnaround from last spring. A rush of European families re-booking their holidays from Portugal to Italy seems likely, given the fluctuations in case numbers.
   13266. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: June 28, 2021 at 05:00 PM (#6026733)
Very good news about durability of mRNA vaccine immunity. This was the most likely result, but it is great to see some study results.
   13267. Random Transaction Generator Posted: June 29, 2021 at 12:32 AM (#6026805)
Missouri might be at the beginning of a delta variant outbreak.

Under this way of tabulating things, Missouri has a 7.9% positivity rate as of June 25. Health officials exclude the most recent three days to ensure data accuracy when calculating the moving average.

The positivity rate was 4.5% on June 1.


With only 54% having at least one shot, this could easily start to skyrocket.
   13268. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: June 30, 2021 at 05:39 PM (#6027081)
CSPAN did a thing:
On Wednesday, C-SPAN released its 2021 historians survey of presidential leadership, a ranking the network has been producing at or near the end of each presidency since 2000. The survey was sent out to 141 historians, professors, and “professional observers of the presidency” who then ranked every American president according to 10 characteristics with an aggregate final score.

The big question: How did our last president do? Well, Donald J. Trump, 45th president of the United States of America (as his letterhead in public pronouncements continues to inform us), finished 41st out of the 44 American presidents no longer in office

...Crisis Leadership: 41 out of 44 for Trump

This category roughly matches the final rankings, with Trump finishing fourth-to-last behind the troika of pre and post-Civil War schmucks. Trump just barely finished with a lower score than Herbert Hoover (40), with 26.5 points out of 100 compared to the 31st president’s 26.6. I guess the half a million dead Americans during the COVID-19 pandemic was considered worse than 25 percent unemployment during the Great Depression under Hoover.

...Vision/Setting an Agenda: 36 out of 44 for Trump

This is another one of Trump’s best categories and another where he seems to have been graded on a curve. Here's who he beat: Harrison (died in office, 37), Harding (died in office, 38), Hoover (name synonymous with the Great Depression, 39), Tyler (nearly impeached and quit both parties, 40), Fillmore (led country towards Civil War, 41), Pierce (really led country towards Civil War, 42), Andrew Johnson (impeached after siding with ex-Confederates in post-Civil War America, 43), and Buchanan (really, really led country towards Civil War, 44).

...and from the "oh, for ####'s sake" department:
George W. Bush was ranked seventh-to-last in his initial survey, and has since risen out of the bottom 15
   13269. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 01, 2021 at 05:58 AM (#6027168)
The EU have set up a digital certificate scheme in which they mutually agree that any EU resident who is fully vaccinated by any EU-approved vaccine can't be kept from crossing borders between EU nations, nor forced to provide negative tests, nor forced to quarantine after doing so. So this doesn't cover things like the Sputnik vaccine (used in Hungary), nor non-EU residents who have received Pfizer/Moderna/AZ, etc. Some neighbouring nations like Switzerland and Norway have also accepted the invite to join the scheme. The UK has, apparently, not chosen to do so.

There are a couple of hitches - Germany is still not happy to let in Portuguese residents without quarantine, Ireland's digital setup is running behind by a few weeks, and so on. But it might be a driver to encourage others to go and get vaccinated if they want to go on holiday without expense and inconvenience. And us Europeans do love our holidays.
   13270. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 01, 2021 at 07:48 AM (#6027171)
Also in the Guardian's liveblog: Russia is apparently starting to administer booster shots to people "completely" vaccinated already. On the one hand, suggests a certain lack of confidence in their home-grown vaccines. On the other, an interesting element of strategy - is it better to keep the most at-risk groups topped up rather than expanding vaccination across your whole population? I would guess that would infer a larger risk of a 'reservoir' of virus that can continue to mutate and cause damage in your wider population, as part of the tradeoff of trying to keep the elderly from dying due to fading protection. A tough choice.
   13271. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: July 01, 2021 at 09:29 AM (#6027183)
is it better to keep the most at-risk groups topped up rather than expanding vaccination across your whole population?

The Sputnik vaccine has been around long enough that I would hope Russia would have expanded their manufacturing and distribution capacity to cover both. Why wouldn't that be the case?
   13272. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 01, 2021 at 10:01 AM (#6027188)

The Sputnik vaccine has been around long enough that I would hope Russia would have expanded their manufacturing and distribution capacity to cover both. Why wouldn't that be the case?


I don't know, but based on a quick Google search they've only fully vaccinated 12% of their population so far.
   13273. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 01, 2021 at 10:26 AM (#6027194)
So, this guy thinks that excess deaths are increasing again in the US, based on CDC data.

Clearly, there are still excess deaths happening -- not surprising since we know that there are still a few hundred COVID deaths being reported every day. So he's right that things aren't back to normal.

But his chart that shows total and excess deaths increasing over the past few weeks seems to overcorrect for the CDC's reporting lag. I looked at some of the data that AuntBea used to post here and as of July 1, 2020, the CDC had reported 51,959 deaths (from all causes, not just COVID) for the week ending June 6. As of June 30, 2021, they're reporting 49,684 deaths for the week ending June 5. So it looks like deaths for that week are going to come out a few thousand below where they were a year ago for that week, but this guy's chart appears to show there being >5,000 *more* deaths this year than last for the same week.

Why this matters -- if excess deaths are going up while reported COVID deaths are going down, it implies that either (a) there's a systematic underreporting of COVID deaths happening now, which strikes me as unlikely given that COVID cases and hospitalizations continue to decrease on a national basis, or (b) some other cause is now killing people by the thousands. Either one of those would be a cause for concern. But if it's (c) just a product of his overcorrecting the data, then there's nothing to be overly concerned about, other than the fact that COVID is still a presence and we need to continue getting people vaccinated. My money is on the latter.

To his credit, he acknowledges that possibility and he's quick to disprove any claims that the vaccines are causing excess deaths. And I hate to criticize when someone at a conservative think tank like AEI says we should still take COVID seriously -- since they're more likely to reach the people who still need to be reached on the vaccination front. But if I were him, I wouldn't have published these forecasts.
   13274. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: July 01, 2021 at 01:36 PM (#6027232)
The Sputnik vaccine has been around long enough that I would hope Russia would have expanded their manufacturing and distribution capacity to cover both. Why wouldn't that be the case?
I don't know, but based on a quick Google search they've only fully vaccinated 12% of their population so far.
imagine that oklahoma's government developed their own covid vaccine, approved its usage without publishing the data from clinical trials, and told the public that it was safe and effective.

i think oklahoma's vaccination rate in that scenario would be higher than russia's, but not by much.
   13275. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 01, 2021 at 01:39 PM (#6027233)
The Sputnik vaccine has been around long enough that I would hope Russia would have expanded their manufacturing and distribution capacity to cover both. Why wouldn't that be the case?


I'm not qualified to state definitively, but my guess would be a minimal actual ability to scale up anywhere near as rapidly as in the West (skills, materials, supply chains) and the use of some of the Sputnik supply as a foreign policy tool, exporting to other countries around the world to garner headlines and political clout.
   13276. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: July 01, 2021 at 01:42 PM (#6027234)
covid outreach in casper, wyoming:
We really haven’t focused a ton on people who are hard noes—“I do not want to be vaccinated”—because we don’t feel at this point it’s worth our effort and our time to try to convince them otherwise. Instead, we’re really focusing on those who are maybe just on the fence and trying to target why they may be on the fence. ...we’ve been at local events, so that for convenience purposes, you’re going out to the town bar, or the rodeo, and we’ll vaccinate you while you’re there. Or you’re coming into our community for our state’s high school track meet, and we will target you there. We’ve offered food trucks, we’ve offered food incentives, all kinds of different things.
...
I oversee all the contact tracing in my community. Every single death gets marked, and I see that. We’ve lost well over 100 people in my own community. And I think that’s been astonishing. It’s been incredibly heartbreaking to hear some of those stories, and go in and review the case notes of that person and see that they were previously healthy, 30 years old, whatever. I don’t think that people can understand the volume and the death and the destruction for our community

   13277. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 01, 2021 at 02:19 PM (#6027241)
Yeah those charts in 13273 are a sad sight. I don't think it's (a) and I think it might be a bit of (c), but my half-ass look at the numbers thinks the excess mortality will still be pretty high.
   13278. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: July 01, 2021 at 02:37 PM (#6027247)
Why this matters -- if excess deaths are going up while reported COVID deaths are going down, it implies that either (a) there's a systematic underreporting of COVID deaths happening now, which strikes me as unlikely given that COVID cases and hospitalizations continue to decrease on a national basis, or (b) some other cause is now killing people by the thousands. Either one of those would be a cause for concern. But if it's (c) just a product of his overcorrecting the data, then there's nothing to be overly concerned about, other than the fact that COVID is still a presence and we need to continue getting people vaccinated. My money is on the latter.



Portland and Seattle hit records of 116 and 108 degrees on Monday. More than 35 cities in the region tied or broke their heat records, experiencing temperatures 30 to 40 degrees above normal. For many residents, it has become hard to escape the heat even inside their houses
...
Oregon and Washington linked at least 70 deaths to the hot temperature in the last few days, and this number is likely to increase. In British Columbia, Canada, there have been hundreds of excess deaths.

At least 486 have died suddenly in British Columbia since Friday amid the unprecedented heat. That’s almost 200% more deaths than would have occurred in the same period in the average year, and the chief coroner said that “this number will increase as data continues to be updated.”

“The vast majority of these cases are related to the heat,” Vancouver sergeant Steve Addison said in a statement. “We’ve never seen anything like this, and it breaks our hearts.”

   13279. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 01, 2021 at 03:00 PM (#6027255)

Thanks. That is tragic but temperatures this past week don't explain anything in his charts since his data only goes through June 26 at this point.
   13280. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: July 02, 2021 at 07:57 AM (#6027368)
You know what? After a year of watching sporting events with few/no people in the stands, it's now strange to actually see people in the stands...
   13281. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 02, 2021 at 01:56 PM (#6027428)

Cases nationwide certainly seem to be increasing again now, with most of the increase being driven by states with relatively low vaccination rates. The correlation between fully vaccinated % of population and % increase in daily cases over the past 14 days is about 0.5, which is a pretty strong.

Average daily deaths are 263 per the NY Times. Even if cases continue to rise, I expect we'll see deaths continue to decline for a while longer given the various lags. I would not be surprised if average daily deaths drop below 200.

Here in New York, we're average 328 cases per day and a positive test rate of <0.5%. Average daily deaths are 8, and 744 people hospitalized with COVID in the entire state. Our vaccination rate isn't quite as high as I'd like it to be, and given that pretty much everything is open now and the weather has been sweltering, I expect we'll see a bit of a plateau / slight rise in cases from this level. But given high vaccination rates among the elderly, I would likewise hope to continue to see a decline in deaths.
   13282. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:22 PM (#6027443)
So are we seeing a third wave infecting and killing mostly republicans? That is dumb. They're gonna have to double down on vote suppresion.

   13283. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 02, 2021 at 02:55 PM (#6027455)
I'm not qualified to state definitively, but my guess would be a minimal actual ability to scale up anywhere near as rapidly as in the West (skills, materials, supply chains) and the use of some of the Sputnik supply as a foreign policy tool, exporting to other countries around the world to garner headlines and political clout.


Even "the West" has had issues. Astra-Zeneca has four vaccine manufacturing plants, but only one is producing anywhere near capacity. Attempts to get the other three up to speed have failed so far. It requires a lot of highly specialized technical skill to mass-produce the vaccines, and even within the same company, transferring those skills is extremely difficult.
   13284. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: July 02, 2021 at 07:33 PM (#6027491)
So are we seeing a third wave infecting and killing mostly republicans? That is dumb. They're gonna have to double down on vote suppresion.

Aaaaand that's why I stopped reading this thread. Thanks for the reminder.

PS: It's spelled "suppression", genius.
   13285. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 03, 2021 at 11:02 AM (#6027524)
The low point of the virus last year was right about now--couple weeks earlier I think. 5,000-6,000 excess deaths per week.

Anyway, comparing this year's data to last year's (and we don't know if the CDC's reporting is truly the same since I haven't been following--maybe they are better about reporting now)

week-ending    2021     2020

5/30          52242     54567
6/6           50494     52401
6/13          46041     48279
6/20          37797     38650
6/27          22789     21956


I'd be very hesitant to extrapolate too much for weeks starting after 6/13, as the date is still too preliminary. Lyman Stone came to many wrong conclusions last year doing exactly that (calling the end of covid just excess deaths just a few weeks on at least a few occasions, but also doing the opposite calling big spikes that never occurred).

So, at least through 6/12, there have been 2000 or so fewer excess deaths per week. Then you have to determine baseline, which one would expect to increase by close to 1000 per week, but it could be hard to say. Putting that together and you are maybe looking at 2500-3000 excess deaths per week still in the first couple weeks of June. That's definitely a lot and way higher than the covid numbers, so is not easy to explain.

Lot of assumptions here, including how good the states are at reporting now, versus last year, which could have an effect that would wash most of this out. To the extent there really is a lot of covid deaths going unidentified, we should see these numbers rising over the next few weeks as the delta variant picks up speed.

   13286. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 03, 2021 at 03:27 PM (#6027547)
Guardian reports that the Brazilian Supreme Court has approved an investigation into Bolsonaro's procurement of vaccines - or, I suppose, his lack of urgency in doing so. I don't know how politics really works in Brazil, but that sounds significant.
   13287. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 03, 2021 at 05:26 PM (#6027557)


So, at least through 6/12, there have been 2000 or so fewer excess deaths per week. Then you have to determine baseline, which one would expect to increase by close to 1000 per week, but it could be hard to say. Putting that together and you are maybe looking at 2500-3000 excess deaths per week still in the first couple weeks of June. That's definitely a lot and way higher than the covid numbers, so is not easy to explain.

Is it way higher than the COVID numbers? The CDC is reporting 2,101 COVID deaths for the week ending June 5 and 1,651 for the week ending June 12, and I assume both will continue to be revised upwards.

To me, it looks like excess deaths for those weeks are in line with COVID deaths with relatively normal levels of underreporting. But this is something you've looked at more than I have so I'm curious if I'm missing something.
   13288. RJ in TO Posted: July 03, 2021 at 06:28 PM (#6027563)
Canada is now up to 68.42% of the total population having at least their first dose of the vaccine, and now has 33.37% of the population fully vaccinated. That first number is still growing, but has slowed greatly to about 0.15% a day, but the second number is increasing by 1%+ a day. At the moment, we're at about 79% of the eligible population having at least one shot, so we're not likely to see much in the way of significant growth, as we're now moving into the last 20% of eligible population who are vaccine "cautious" or straight out anti-vax.
   13289. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 03, 2021 at 08:49 PM (#6027578)

Is it way higher than the COVID numbers? The CDC is reporting 2,101 COVID deaths for the week ending June 5 and 1,651 for the week ending June 12, and I assume both will continue to be revised upwards.
Yeah I guess not. I thought the reported numbers were lower than that--I really haven't been paying close attention. Though, there is a delay between excess and reported. I think close to two weeks, so excess still seems a little higher.

It will be interesting to see how the last three weeks shake out.
   13290. Eudoxus Posted: July 05, 2021 at 01:31 PM (#6027700)
Numbers update (I missed last week; got hectic with dissertation defenses and tenure evaluation letters):

US death rate, June 22 -> July 5: 296 -> 220; 25.7% decline
US case rate, June 22 -> July 5: 11502 -> 12939; 12.5% increase

Not thrilled to see cases increasing, but it's not a huge spike, and the UK seems to be tolerating a bigger case increase (from a low of about 2000/day up to 25,000/day now) without a correspondingly large increase in deaths (from a low of 8/day to 16/day now).

220/day is, in some sense, a sustainable number for the US. Maybe we just settle in somewhere around that number, and COVID continues to work through the unvaccinated population. With about 45% of the population fully unvaccinated, being down to about 6% of the January peak in death rates seems like a huge success -- I wouldn't have been surprised if we had levelled out with a substantially higher death rate driven by unvaccinated population. But also maybe the vaccinated population creates enough of a buffer than numbers keep falling.

(I haven't drilled down into the data to see which states are having the most deaths/cases or how well-correlated with vaccination rates or delta variant rates the numbers are. Interested in references if anyone has seen anything.)

The Worldometer "weekly trends" data has made my table of countries superfluous now, so just some highlights of the data:

-The worldwide death rate has now dropped just under 1 death/million/day. Of the 204 countries tracked by Worldometer, 46 are above 1 death/million/day, and 158 are below.

-If we think of 4/day as the "serious outbreak" threshold, there are now 17 countries with serious outbreaks. 9 in South America (everywhere other than Guyana, French Guyana, Ecuador, and Venezuela). 4 in Africa (Namibia, South Africa, Tunisia, Seychelles). 2 in Asia (Oman and Mongolia). One in North America (Trinidad and Tobago) and one in Europe (Russia).

-42% of deaths in the last week were in South America. 31% in Asia, 11.7% in Europe, 8.3% in Africa, 7.1% in North America. 75% of the European deaths are from Russia.

-Paraguay is hardest-hit right now, with about 16.5 deaths/million/day. Argentia, Colombia, Namibia, and the Seychelles are all above 10/million/day. Brazil is down to about 7.3, so might be coming off of their latest peak. India has dropped to about .58, so back below the US rate.
   13291. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 05, 2021 at 03:05 PM (#6027707)
Boris Johnson has just pre-announced that England's "back to normal"/"learn to live with it" date will be the 19th of July, when almost all mandated restrictions will be eased. This will be an interesting one to watch; the UK believes that it has broken the link between infection and hospitalisation through the vaccines, as daily new cases are around the 20-25k mark, but deaths are rising much more slowly. By comparison, Germany's new cases are averaging 500-600 daily, but Germany is still significantly behind in vaccinations (though making up ground).

Johnson's press conference also included a forecast that cases could reach the 50k/daily mark by the time the 19th rolls around. It's quite a strong statement that these cases - particularly the Delta variant - aren't going to overwhelm the NHS. It's also been openly stated that Johnson's scientific advisors think that some of these cases/hospitalisations are effectively unavoidable, and they'd rather have those cases in summer than during flu season.
   13292. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 05, 2021 at 03:10 PM (#6027708)


(I haven't drilled down into the data to see which states are having the most deaths/cases or how well-correlated with vaccination rates or delta variant rates the numbers are. Interested in references if anyone has seen anything.)


I've been periodically going to the New York times page and running correlations of vaccination rate against 14-day change in cases for each state. It's a crude measure and it shows a -0.4 correlation (negative means higher vax rates means smaller increase in cases), which isn't super high but certainly suggests a link. You get roughly the same correlations (-0.4 to -0.5) if you look at absolute # of cases, deaths, or hospitalizations per capita vs. the vaccination rate.
   13293. Eudoxus Posted: July 05, 2021 at 03:29 PM (#6027710)
I am selfishly hoping for an elimination of the quarantine requirement for travel to the UK as part of the July 19 changes.

Comparing the UK and India, on the uncertain assumption that we're seeing delta variant effects in both places:

-The UK's upward trend in cases started about May 5. In the two months since then, they've gone from 1952 to 24473 cases a day, so an increase of 12.54 fold.

-India's upward trend in cases started about February 17. In a two month period, they went from 11212 to 232663 cases a day, so an increase of 20.75 fold.

-India then reached its overall peak on May 8, at 392322 cases a day, or 35 times the low point.

So if the UK is following the India curve, they've got maybe another three weeks to a month to reach the peak, and might peak somewhere around 40,000 cases a day. (This is hoping that the slightly lower multipliers for the UK are vaccination effects, rather than just a slower growth curve.)
   13294. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 06, 2021 at 03:47 AM (#6027781)
That would actually be a good outcome for the UK - Sajid Javid, the new UK Health Secretary (after the previous incumbent turned out to be violating lockdown rules in order to cheat on his wife with a friend who mysteriously was appointed into a position in his department and who was sponsored for Westminster passes for no good reason by another member of the political party), has apparently said today that cases could get as high as 100k daily this summer.

It seems to me that a number of cases that high would be a major gamble. Those unable to vaccinate or who are still shielding are going to have a very hard time without masking being required in shared areas - psychologically if nothing else - and there's the ongoing concern about 'long Covid' among those who recover from infection. I would also have naively assumed that there's a pretty direct correlation between number of cases in the wild and risk of new variants emerging. But, much as with Sweden trying to go for mostly-voluntary restrictions last year, the outcomes will be very instructive, either way.
   13295. Lassus Posted: July 06, 2021 at 10:49 AM (#6027810)
75% of the European deaths are from Russia.

Eudoxus is Yogi Berra!
   13296. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 06, 2021 at 10:10 PM (#6028000)
More on Russia - The Incomprehensible Enormity Of Russia’s Botched Pandemic Response. Some problems, apparently.
   13297. Hank Gillette Posted: July 08, 2021 at 02:18 PM (#6028269)
I haven't drilled down into the data to see which states are having the most deaths/cases or how well-correlated with vaccination rates or delta variant rates the numbers are. Interested in references if anyone has seen anything.


According to The Washington Post all Marylanders who died of covid in June (~127) were unvaccinated.

I’d like to see the CDC or the states reporting the statistics on this every month.
   13298. Tony S Posted: July 09, 2021 at 08:43 AM (#6028365)

Meanwhile, in other parts of the country...

Juarez said many of his hospitalized Covid-19 patients are "shocked" that Covid-19 truly exists and that it can make people very sick and even kill them. "A comment they make all the time is that they wish that they knew they were going to end up in the hospital this sick and they would have made a different choice and got the vaccine," he said.

Eric Frederick, chief administrative officer for Mercy Hospital Springfield, has also encountered patients who are extremely dismissive of or who flat-out deny the existence of Covid-19.


As long as certain elements of our culture continue to celebrate this kind of staggering ignorance, we'll never get this pandemic fully under control.
   13299. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 09, 2021 at 10:35 AM (#6028377)
Russia may be getting hit harder now than ever by covid. Maybe not a surprise, since still very few people there are vaccinated.

It's a bit hard to tell though, as by all reports they have been undercounting deaths by a factor of 3 or 4 to this point. Very likely they are over 500,000 excess deaths by now, which on an age adjusted basis puts them at more or less a par with the very worst hit state in the US, Mississippi, now starting to get close to 0.4% of the entire population (age adjusted to the US for population over 65).
   13300. bunyon Posted: July 09, 2021 at 11:12 AM (#6028386)
With Delta and the lack of vaccination worldwide, it's going to be a long summer and fall.
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