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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 13559 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   13301. RJ in TO Posted: July 09, 2021 at 12:27 PM (#6028398)
Canada has moved up to 69.13% of the total population having at least one shot, and 40.33% being fully vaccinated. The "at least one shot" category has more or less leveled out, increasing by only about 0.1% a day, but that still means we're at about 80% of the eligible population being at least partially vaccinated. There are signs of it picking up slightly, as the concerns about the delta variant grow, but it really does seem like we've hit the point where everyone who wants a shot has the shot already.

Also, with the rate of increase in the fully vaccinated category, it should converge with the partially vaccinated in roughly a month.
   13302. Lassus Posted: July 14, 2021 at 06:29 PM (#6029112)
If Sweden had 1 out of every 691 die of COVID so far and the USA had 1 out of every 523 die of COVID, what am I missing about Sweden failing and the US not failing as badly? Number of cities? Or?
   13303. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 15, 2021 at 03:07 AM (#6029145)
If Sweden had 1 out of every 691 die of COVID so far and the USA had 1 out of every 523 die of COVID, what am I missing about Sweden failing and the US not failing as badly? Number of cities? Or?


I think it's that the US is not the only or best comparison for Sweden for several reasons (population distribution, access to healthcare, etc.), and that Sweden's neighbours got off far, far lighter:

Denmark had 1 in 2290 die
Norway had 1 in 6865
Finland had 1 in 5686

Denmark arguably carried much more risk than Sweden, with a land border to continental Europe, higher population density, and more international travel and tourism through the country. Yet its mortality rate was 4 times lower than Sweden's.

There's lots more factors weighing in each direction, plus dumb luck, but taking Scandinavia as a whole (Iceland excepted because distant island, but the numbers wouldn't move the dial much either way):

Sweden: 1 in 691 die
Rest of Scandinavia: around 1 in 3700 die

EDIT: So Sweden "could have had" a much better result than it did, taking a simple comparison with other similar countries nearby. What the US "could have had" is very difficult to measure because (insert exceptionalism), but I don't think a Finland- or Norway-style outcome was ever on the cards given where things started in early 2020. Maybe a Germany-style outcome could have been achieved? That would be 1 in 915. But the German safety net for health is quite different. On the other hand, lots more public transport and shared residential spaces. Hard to know. There's just not a good comparison.

There's no perfect mirror-image countries out there, naturally, but Norway/Sweden is nearly as good as it gets in terms of 'similar nations, different governments' in the Western world in my opinion.
   13304. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 15, 2021 at 05:12 AM (#6029146)
Sorry, re: above, "mortality rate" is probably the wrong term to use. Denmark had 4 times lower deaths per population than Sweden, and Norway 10 times lower. Similarly, if Arizona had 4 times more deaths per population than New Mexico, and 10 times higher than Nevada, we would probably find that odd, even if Arizona had 20% fewer deaths per population than New York.
   13305. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 15, 2021 at 09:49 AM (#6029159)
Another claimed success story is South Dakota. By excess deaths, normalized for age, South Dakota had a bad pandemic--maybe in the worst 10 states in the country. Without doing a more in depth analysis, they are at about 0.28% of population (age adjusted to US average for population over 65, and based on excess deaths). That might be top 10 worst in the country, and worst except for NY/NJ, the South plus Texas and Arizona. Mississippi is at .38%, Texas is at .33%, Louisiana at .33%, New York at .32%, New Jersey at .31%. Alabama at .31%, Georgia at .29%, Arizona at .29%, Arkansas at .28%. Rough estimates only.
   13306. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 16, 2021 at 07:07 PM (#6029331)
These projections seemed pretty on for a while but now the case numbers just keep going up in the US in a way he didn't seem to anticipate.
   13307. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2021 at 07:24 AM (#6029375)
Cases have been going up much faster than I expected the past couple of weeks. Unfortunately, hospitalizations and deaths going up now too. I wish there was more info on cases and hospitalizations among vaccinated vs unvaccinated people. I’ve seen stats that indicate almost all the deaths are unvaccinated, at least where it’s been reported.
   13308. Tony S Posted: July 17, 2021 at 09:00 AM (#6029380)
I don't think anyone anticipated how bad Delta would be. And it's being fully enabled by the anti-vax crowd -- they're just making this pandemic longer and deeper than it needs to be. Maybe that's the point.

In late May/early June, a couple of months after my second Moderna shot, I took a 7500-mile cross-country drive. Attended a Braves game, ate at restaurants, wore the mask only sporadically.

Looks like I hit the sweet spot. No way I'd do that today.
   13309. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2021 at 10:27 AM (#6029385)
Cases have been going up much faster than I expected the past couple of weeks. Unfortunately, hospitalizations and deaths going up now too. I wish there was more info on cases and hospitalizations among vaccinated vs unvaccinated people. I’ve seen stats that indicate almost all the deaths are unvaccinated, at least where it’s been reported.
Even then, you have to be very careful to control for the different demographics of the groups. One very obvious point is that the most susceptible people, primarily the old but also some others, are vaccinated at much higher rates than the least susceptible people, primarily the young and often the very young (i.e., children). If vaccines were complete placebos, you would expect far more cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the vaccinated group. If the two groups are even close to equal, that implies vaccines are highly effective.
   13310. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2021 at 10:34 AM (#6029386)
Also, check this out from hospitalizations/deaths reported to the CDC. The problem here is we may have no real idea what fraction of the breakthrough cases were actually reported. (At least, I have no idea.)

As of July 12, 5000 breakthrough hospitalizations and 1000 deaths. Worldometer has the US with 50,000 reported deaths in the 3 months of April-June.

   13311. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2021 at 10:38 AM (#6029387)
Here's an article yesterday for Massachusetts.

As of July 10, 4,450 vaccinated people in Massachusetts had tested positive for COVID-19 since the rollout began this past winter, according to the state’s Department of Public Health.
That ‘s just over 0.1 percent — or one in a thousand — of the 4,195,844 people in Massachusetts who were fully vaccinated at the time.
Of that tiny faction, the overwhelming majority of cases weren’t severe.
DPH officials say that 303 — or 6.8 percent — of the breakthrough infections involved hospitalization and a total of 79 vaccinated individuals in Massachusetts have died.
In other words, the most recent data shows that 0.007 percent — or seven in 100,000 — of fully vaccinated individuals in Massachusetts have been hospitalized. Likewise, less than two in 100,000 have died.


Those timeframes don't necessarily match, since vaccines were rolled out over time. Still, the number of breakthrough cases so far seems to have been very low. Hopefully that is not changing with the delta variant.
   13312. Tony S Posted: July 17, 2021 at 10:44 AM (#6029389)

I'm picking up my Brazilian friend and his partner at the airport on Wednesday. They're both fully vaxxed (Pfizer) and have spent about a month in Brasilia. They report that the public (at least in the capital) is far, far ahead of the leadership when it comes to masking up, social distancing, and taking other precautions, and they've both remained fully healthy in their time there. Still, I'm a bit apprehensive about sharing a car with two people coming off a long international flight. I got a few extra masks...
   13313. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2021 at 10:45 AM (#6029390)
Here's one for Utah:
Breakthrough cases are up in a big way in Utah. Cases among vaccinated people are still much less common than those among unvaccinated people, but both are growing, due to the Delta variant and its increased level of contagiousness.

Basically, we’re seeing between 50 and 100 cases per day among the vaccinated, and 300 to 600 cases per day among the unvaccinated. Once you adjust for the size of the unvaccinated vs. vaccinated populations, we’re seeing five to six times more cases among the unvaccinated.

This also doesn't seem to account for the different demographics. For example, there could be, and probably are, a lot of unvaccinated children that would test positive if they were tested.
   13314. Tony S Posted: July 17, 2021 at 10:48 AM (#6029391)
Hopefully that is not changing with the delta variant.


That is my main concern. I think it's well-established that the vaccines are extremely effective with non-delta. But seeing delta cases mushroom in well-vaxxed places like the UK is a bit worrisome.
   13315. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2021 at 11:06 AM (#6029392)
The UK is ahead of the US in vaccinations, but not by that much. Only 52.4% fully vaccinated there, according to CNN.One very notable thing about the UK is they seem to be having very few deaths from right now, relative to the number of cases. (0.2% or so with 3 week delay, versus close to 2% or so in the US, and historically in 2021 I think around 1.5% in the US with 3 week delay, with similar numbers historically in the UK). Assuming cases and deaths are not being wildly misreported, that probably means one of two things, or both: either cases are disproportionately in the young now (who are more likely to be unvaccinated), or the vaccine is helping to prevent serious illness even among those who catch the virus.

edit: This BBC article says that 90% of adults have received 1 dose, and 67% of adults have received two doses. If 68% of people in the UK have received one does and 52% have received both, that means basically no children have received any. UK has also been doing a pretty strict rollout, so it looks likely that almost everyone old has been completely vaccinated.

edit2:
and this article states that as of a month ago 96% of people over 50 had received at least one does, and 92% had received both doses.

edit3: I wish the US had the vaccine uptake of the UK. Theirs seems to be based almost entirely on age. Ours is based in large part on political affiliation. We are very unlikely to see the same reduction in hospitals and deaths, relative to cases, that they appear to be enjoying now.
   13316. Tony S Posted: July 17, 2021 at 11:18 AM (#6029393)

Is there a source that breaks down the UK cases by age? That would be instructive, but I can't find one at this moment.
   13317. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2021 at 11:38 AM (#6029395)
From the mirror

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) found that infections rose across all age groups in the week to Saturday - although it was most prevalent in younger people.

Children up to 11 had an estimated rate of one in 60, with roughly one in 45 11-to-16 year-olds likely to test positive.

Among the over-70s, it is estimated that around one in 400 had the virus, figures released this afternoon show.

Those aged between 25 and 34 had a rate of around one in 75, while it was just under one in 100 for those aged 35 to 49.

ONS estimates that 577,700 people across England had the virus in the week to Saturday - the equivalent of one in 95.


edit: and from the horse's mouth. Cases are disproportionately among then young now, and it seems to be directly related to vaccination uptake rates. Also remember that the numbers are likely still skewed, as indicated above. All of this suggests vaccines remain highly effective.
   13318. Tony S Posted: July 17, 2021 at 11:45 AM (#6029396)
Thank you, Aunt Bea. Those figures do suggest that the vaccines are effective at containing the Delta variant, seeing that the numbers are flattest in the most highly vaxxed groups.

A 20 year old relative of mine, fully vaxxed, had a breakthrough case a week ago. He's fine now, but it was an eye opener. He's an EMT worker in a southern low-vax state, so he was probably more exposed than most.

I'm still going to watch what happens in the US before I go on any more trips...
   13319. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2021 at 11:56 AM (#6029397)
Right. There are at least two aspects to the risk of interacting with people: how protected you are personally by the vaccine (and your health/age status), and how prevalent it is in your community you interact with. Nobody is 100% safe.
   13320. Tony S Posted: July 17, 2021 at 11:59 AM (#6029398)
I declined an invitation to go to Rehoboth this weekend. I'll go to a restaurant with one or two people during non-peak times, or eat outdoors if possible, but going to a crowded tourist hotspot is outside my comfort zone at this time.

how prevalent it is in your community you interact with


And this is where anti-vaxxers do the most damage.
   13321. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 17, 2021 at 01:29 PM (#6029402)
I wish the US had the vaccine uptake of the UK. Theirs seems to be based almost entirely on age. Ours is based in large part on political affiliation. We are very unlikely to see the same reduction in hospitals and deaths, relative to cases, that they appear to be enjoying now.


Sadly, the UK's current surge in cases (with an increase in hospitalisations and deaths, though not as rapid) will probably serve as evidence to the reluctant that vaccines aren't doing their job, rather than evidence that only the diligent being willing to get vaccinated is insufficient to suppress current variants. The timing is very poor for the UK, where England is planning a relaxation of restrictions on Monday (dubbed 'Freedom Day' initially, then sheepishly rowed back by the government when it became clear that cases were surging and that the population is actually in favour of the restrictions remaining in place until the current surge dies down.

7 day moving averages in the UK, 16 June / 16 July:

Cases per day: 8k / 39k
Deaths per day: 9 / 39
   13322. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 17, 2021 at 08:09 PM (#6029430)
This was interesting, I think. Author in the comments "you really need to push for full vaccination, because at this point most ppl will likely get infected. They better have the vaccine protection when they do."

Feels like when, not if, I catch it at this point even though I'm vaccinated.
   13323. Ron J Posted: July 17, 2021 at 08:41 PM (#6029433)
#13322 Who knew a life as an extreme introvert was preparing me for a pandemic? (Fully vaccinated and still ... )
   13324. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 18, 2021 at 12:02 PM (#6029497)
From 13311:

As of July 10, 4,450 vaccinated people in Massachusetts had tested positive for COVID-19 since the rollout began this past winter, according to the state’s Department of Public Health.
That ‘s just over 0.1 percent — or one in a thousand — of the 4,195,844 people in Massachusetts who were fully vaccinated at the time.
Of that tiny faction, the overwhelming majority of cases weren’t severe.
DPH officials say that 303 — or 6.8 percent — of the breakthrough infections involved hospitalization and a total of 79 vaccinated individuals in Massachusetts have died.
In other words, the most recent data shows that 0.007 percent — or seven in 100,000 — of fully vaccinated individuals in Massachusetts have been hospitalized. Likewise, less than two in 100,000 have died.


I know there's a lot of ways that you need to adjust these numbers to make them entirely accurate and I know that two of the big ones work against what I'm about to say (vaccinated people are less likely to take a test for mild/no symptoms and the mortality rate among the vaccinated is likely higher than average).

But that said, 79 deaths out of 4,450 positive tests is 1.8% which doesn't seem all that great and certainly seems far worse than the initial results that "the vaccine virtually eliminates the risk of hospitalization and death". And/or suggests that the Delta variant is not merely more contagious but also far more severe if/when you do catch it.
   13325. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 18, 2021 at 12:12 PM (#6029500)
But that said, 79 deaths out of 4,450 positive tests is 1.8% which doesn't seem all that great and certainly seems far worse than the initial results that "the vaccine virtually eliminates the risk of hospitalization and death". And/or suggests that the Delta variant is not merely more contagious but also far more severe if/when you do catch it.


In fact, following up on this. And repeating that there are huge caveats here.

Per Worldometers, using January 1st as a convenient starting point, they're showing 5,597 COVID deaths in Massachusetts in 2021 out of 318,271 cases. That's 1.76% vs. 1.78% in the above quote. The fact that vaccinated people only account for 1.4% of total cases in a state that I believe is 60% vaccinated by now is hugely reassuring. But once they catch it, vaccinated folks sure seem to be dying at the same rate as the unvaccinated. [Again, huge caveats.]
   13326. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 18, 2021 at 12:18 PM (#6029501)
Almost none of those in MA would be delta variant, since they all happened since "this winter". Your other point is fair though. It's not clear by those numbers there was any advantage provided by the vaccine against serious illness in MA, though it shows massive advantage against testing positive.

It does seem quite likely though that vaccinated people are less likely to get tested. In fact, getting tested regularly is a requirement of many work places unless you are vaccinated (as one example). So very mild or asymptomatic cases likely will be less represented in the vaccinated denominator.

edit: and right, the vaccinated are generally the older group as well. I think if you are showing pretty much even percentages in both groups (serious illness over cases), then it's likely showing significant effects of the vaccines preventing serious illness. That was stated in a post upthread. Still, we have to wait a bit to get any useful US numbers on the delta variant. It's still too early here, which is why we looked at the UK.
   13327. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 18, 2021 at 12:31 PM (#6029503)
Massachusetts vaccinations by age group. It still shows a very strong gradation by age group. This gradation is starting to level out now as well, as younger cohorts continue to get vaccinated whole the older groups are basically done. Back in February for example probably a very high percentage of those who were vaccinated were old. Some of the 79 deaths no doubt came from that period as well.
   13328. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 18, 2021 at 02:18 PM (#6029506)

Right, it seems like if you have a serious enough case / other risk factors that cause you go to get tested, then you're just as likely to die from it. But it looks like the vaccine makes the first part of that statement much less likely to happen. How much of that is preventing infection at all vs. merely preventing serious/symptomatic cases, I don't know.
   13329. base ball chick Posted: July 18, 2021 at 02:56 PM (#6029510)
Read the blog page linked by crosseyed as well as the anti argument by the virus expert professor

like i am sure i have said before
- for a reason i do not get, the categories being looked at are

1 - number of cases (positive tests? and seeing as how people who have been vaccinated are not supposed to get tested, who knowws how many there REALLY are - and also, kids who are not sick enough to go to the ER are not being tested when they get any kind of runny nose/cough and who knows how many of those are covid. Most kids with a cough and runny nose don't even see the doctor so i personally don't thinkw e got ANY idea how many kidz have already had it.)

2 - people sick enough to have to go in the hospital

3 - people who die

who are NOT being counted are people who have long covid - too sick to do anything but lie around but not sick enough to die - and what happens to the ones who are too sick to work and got nobody to support them? why this is not counted as "morbidity" i do NOT get. well, it is all about the $$$ i would bet

best i can tell here in the US of A, cases are not in some nice neat table with cases/deaths/hosp/long covid broken down by age range

and also the people who die from the delta variation i would want to know the age group and immune status of the people who get it and are hospitalized/die/long haulers

the delta variant is a LOT more contagious than the original covid, but you can't say it is more or less deadly unless you look at who is getting it now and who got it then

and also
i am dammm tired of all the people who state that covid is completely cureable/preventable with ivermectin. that would mean that zillions of people are permanently suffering from covid while hundreds/thousands of doctors are refusing to give a simple lifesaving cure like penicillin for strep throat.

am more tired of people who say pretend it is not there even if hundreds of thousands die because it is their problem and the Christ preached to never inconvenience your self for the sake of anyone especially people who look different than you do

- i am STILL wearing masks the KN95 whenever i go into a store or anywhere there would be a lot of people close together. because i can't find any info on how many people who are vaccinated actually have ANTIBIDIES to the virus (in groups of age, ethnicity, gender) because we all know that there are people who have no antibodies, catch the virus and have no symptoms. i do not get WHY the scientists aparently do not want this info
   13330. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 18, 2021 at 03:19 PM (#6029511)
John Burn-Murdoch, who has done good work at the FT on excess deaths, just today has an article out on some of these points. The article compares the effect of vaccinations on delta mitigation across nations.


In the UK, where more than half the population has been fully vaccinated, the deaths-to-cases ratio has fallen from about one in 50 during the winter wave to one in 750. Despite UK daily case rates of more than 40,000 — a figure that before the vaccines rollout would have led to about 800 deaths a day — the current daily tally is about 50.

In contrast, Namibia, with only 1.2 per cent of the population vaccinated, is recording one death for every 22 cases. Namibia’s daily rate of 28 Covid deaths per 1m people is the highest in the world, and far above peak levels recorded in the UK and Italy.


edit: the author makes a mistake of not adding in a 2- or 3-week (or so) between reported cases and deaths. If done that way, the UK is at 0.2% or 0.3% deaths as a percentage of cases (rather than 0.13%), but the point still stands.

edit2: looking at these charts, it's hard to imagine that the delta variant won't just be called "covid" after another month or two. Unless a worse one comes along.
   13331. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 18, 2021 at 03:37 PM (#6029514)
Good twitter thread to accompany the article here.

Notably, the UK has 95% of people over 65 fully vaccinated. In the US it's only 80%. We probably won't see nearly the benefit that the UK does in terms of reduction in serious illness and death. It's also not evenly distributed by state. Nevada is 74%, Missouri, 74%, and Mississippi (already the state doing indisputably worst in this pandemic) is at just 72%. Arkansas is at 66%!
   13332. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 18, 2021 at 04:24 PM (#6029519)
Following up from my post 13285 on the prior page from 2 weeks ago, that supposed huge increase in excess deaths has (as expected) not arrived.

Comparing this year's data to last year's again (provisional death data reporting as of that week):
week-ending 7/2   2021     2020

5/30             52242     54567
6/6              50494     52401
6/13             46041     48279
6/20             37797     38650
6/27             22789     21956

week ending 7/16  2021     2020    
  
5/30             53529     57009
6/6              52775     55526
6/13             51173     53681
6/20             50242     51898
6/27             46785     49033
7/4              37707     42219
7/11             22042     24723

The low point in 2020 was about 5000-6000 excess deaths per year, all throughout June. So, we are still looking at 2000-3000 this year for that period if reporting is more or less the same (with increase in expected deaths for population increase). In 2020 the summer wave (for deaths) started the week of July 4. At least so far this year that week is lagging well behind last year, indicating no noticeable uptick yet from 2000-3000 excess deaths per week. The week ending July 11 it's still much too early to say.

   13333. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 18, 2021 at 08:31 PM (#6029539)
1332 thanks. As I noted a couple of weeks ago, 2000-3000 seems roughly in line with reported COVID deaths with normal undercounting. No evidence that there is any new unreported cause of deaths. It’s mainly just COVID which hasn’t fully gone away.
   13334. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 18, 2021 at 10:13 PM (#6029549)
One good indication that the vaccines are reducing cases and not just serious/symptomatic cases comes from Florida's weekly data update.

They disclose the vaccination rate and positive test rate for each age group over the past week. The groups that are more highly vaccinated have the lowest positive test rate.

Age group...vax rate....Pos test rate
---------------------------------------
<
12............N/A......11.5%
12-19..........33%......14.8%
20-29..........38%......15.3%
30-39..........46%......13.6%
40-49..........56%......12.1%
50-59..........65%......10.1%
60-64..........74%.......8.6%
65+............86%.......6.1
   13335. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 19, 2021 at 05:03 AM (#6029556)
Informative graphic on the current state of play in the UK from the Financial Times in this tweet: https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1417030718316814338?s=20

In the UK, the current trend is that cases are rising faster than they were in the winter peak, but hospitalisations and deaths are rising more slowly. However, they are still rising materially, to the point where hospital admissions and ICU cases are above the point at which winter restrictions were introduced in the UK in January. Deaths are below that point - but of course the issue is that today the UK is removing almost all Covid restrictions, rather than applying new ones in response.

Certainly there is an argument to be made that this is the point where the progress made in vaccination in the UK will prove its worth, but it seems like the UK is running at that question head-first, as it were. 200k cases/day have been predicted in some areas in the UK before the latest peak is reached - the equivalent of around 1m/day in the US.

Meanwhile, school holidays have arrived across almost all of the UK, so a wave of holidaymakers is about to hit Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy, and (to a lesser extent) France. That last is because the UK government on Friday announced a new restriction level for UK residents returning from France, on the strength of a rise in cases of the 'Beta' variant. The speculation is that this comes from the UK mis-reading French statistics, because this surge is mostly confined to the French territory of Réunion, which is thousands of miles away, but whose stats are included in France's headline reporting.
   13336. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 19, 2021 at 09:40 AM (#6029563)
We shouldn't be giving him any bandwidth, but the pandemic's wrongest man has done a flipflop on almost all his points, because now he wants the vaccines to be shown to be ineffective.

Previously he was stating that the virus wasn't killing anyone--now he's telling us the vaccine is useless and a bunch of people will die in the UK in 2-3 weeks. Ironically, that also means he also has to use the same mantra he once mocked mercilessly: "just wait two weeks".

Other things he's been notably wrong about, just from memory pre-vaccine and not from the linked article: herd immunity threshold at 20% or less, IFR at .15% of less, deaths per million population topping out at 600 or less, sunbelt having solved the covid crisis (as noted above, they have done the very worst in the US). Probably 1000 other things.
   13337. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 19, 2021 at 12:54 PM (#6029572)
I assume that Berenson, in his quest to be 100% incorrect consistently, is trying to imply that the vaccines will actually kill people, not just be ineffective against C19, but I'm not going to investigate too closely.

Farce continues in the UK, where Boris Johnson (isolating because of a positive Covid test by the Health Secretary, after implying at the weekend that he wouldn't actually isolate - both are fully vaccinated) - has announced changes to the 'Freedom Day' reopening today. Well, actually, no, he hasn't. But he has announced that from September, proof of vaccination will be required to get into a nightclub and 'similar' venues. But not until September, and this isn't planned to apply to pubs (which are obviously much greater in number, and more popular among the older cohorts of the population).

There are going to have to be extra bouncers employed to stop hordes of teenagers trying to force their way into a grim club spot at 10.30pm on a Thursday evening in the nation's medium and large towns, fuelled by Bacardi Breezer and WKD, or the current generation's equivalent. Actually, more likely, they just won't bother checking for the vaccination; it's not like they used to bother carding when I was that age.

EDIT: The CDC in the US is advising Americans not to visit the UK. I had been of the opinion that, when my vaccinations were complete, I would head over to the UK very quickly, but right now I'm not so sure. I'm confident in the vaccines, but the risk of being stuck without the ability to travel back to Germany seems to be increasing. Plus, if the health service is going to be once again taxed to the hilt, perhaps not the best time to visit.
   13338. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 19, 2021 at 01:14 PM (#6029575)
Also, the government does not seem to have said what other venues like nightclubs might be affected. Obviously nightclubs are a major intersection of alcohol, proximity, and exchange of bodily fluids - the same can't entirely be said for cinemas or the theatre, at least for most productions (I did see quite a production of Spring Awakening a few years back, but it was a matinee). Those are also crowded indoor events. There aren't really many popular British indoor sports that would qualify, which I suppose is strange given the weather. Darts championships are famously boozy, though.
   13339. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 19, 2021 at 02:07 PM (#6029579)
Fox apparently has a policy that allows vaccinated workers to not wear masks or socially distance at work, while unvaccinated employees must do so. Pretty sane, and even moreso when you remember they are located in midtown Manhattan, where I'm pretty sure that's what most white collar businesses are doing (mine included, which is very close by).

No one said they were stupid, just deeply cynical.
   13340. RJ in TO Posted: July 19, 2021 at 02:09 PM (#6029580)
Canada will allegedly be opening the border to fully vaccinated Americans as of August 9th, and fully vaccinated visitors from the rest of the world as of September 7th, with proof of a negative COVID test.

I'm not really thrilled with either of those dates.
   13341. Eudoxus Posted: July 19, 2021 at 02:28 PM (#6029583)
Another numbers update:

US death rate, July 5 -> July 18: 220 -> 246; 11.8% increase
US case rate, July 5 -> July 18: 12939 -> 29012; 124% increase

Well, we've obviously found the bottom of the vaccination-effect decrease. Now the question is how far back up the numbers go. Back-of-the-napkin: about 20% of the US deaths have been in the under-65 group. Over 65 is now 80% full vaccinated; under 65 more like 50%. So using the January peak of about 3400 deaths a day, adjusted for vaccinations we'd expect .8*.2*.3400 + .2*.5*3400 ~= 850 deaths a day. I'm optimistic that we'll stay well under that, but I wouldn't be shocked to see 500 deaths a day happening again.

Internationally: worldwide deaths have basically flattened now (and look like they might start trending upward again). Change in deaths over the last week by continent:

South America: -9% (coming down off their recent peak, but still by far the worst per capita)
Asia: +3% (falling numbers in India vs rising numbers in Indonesia)
Europe: +4% (now 80% of European deaths in Russia)
North America: +7%
Africa: +13%

Top 10 by raw number deaths in the last week: Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, India, Colombia, Argentina, South Africa, USA, Bangladesh, Mexico. With Iran, Myanmar, Tunisia, Malaysia on a course to break the top 10. (Probably Myanmar and Malaysia the most likely.)

Now 18 countries with "severe" (4+/million/day) outbreaks (but five of those are countries with populations under a million, which allows big statistical variation). Namibia is now at 29 deaths/million/day, which is in the "very very bad" territory. Their case numbers are starting to drop, so they may be approaching the peak.
   13342. Eudoxus Posted: July 19, 2021 at 02:32 PM (#6029584)
Does anyone know what today's changes in the UK COVID restrictions means for fully vaccinated US citizens traveling to the UK? I have a child starting university in the UK this fall, and I'd like to fly over with them, but that's not realistic if the "quarantine on arrival for 10 days" rule is still in place. I see that quarantining requirements are being removed for people vaccinated "under the UK vaccination programme", but I don't know what that means for someone vaccinated in the US with Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson&Johnson;.

(University doesn't start until October, so I'm hoping that gives time for the delta wave to peak and recede, to maximize chances of in-person instruction.)
   13343. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 19, 2021 at 03:02 PM (#6029586)
Does anyone know what today's changes in the UK COVID restrictions means for fully vaccinated US citizens traveling to the UK? I have a child starting university in the UK this fall, and I'd like to fly over with them, but that's not realistic if the "quarantine on arrival for 10 days" rule is still in place. I see that quarantining requirements are being removed for people vaccinated "under the UK vaccination programme", but I don't know what that means for someone vaccinated in the US with Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson&Johnson;.


I believe that the UK doesn't recognise vaccinations from other nations yet - they are planning to do so, but in a wonderful piece of British press double-think, the usual suspects are attacking the EU for not recognising a small number of UK residents vaccinated with an AZ vaccine produced in India (most AZ used in the UK was supplied from the EU), while ignoring the fact that the UK is recognising no foreign-administered vaccines. At all. Even if they were a) the same product as used in the UK, and b) provided to British citizens who happen to live abroad.

Quite quickly, I think that will change, and the UK will recognise the vaccination programs in the US, EU, and other major tourist-supplying countries. China comes to mind. Until then, you're correct - anyone arriving in the UK from an 'amber list' country who wasn't vaccinated in the UK needs to self-isolate for 10 days after arrival, plus producing a negative test before departing, and by days 2 and 8 after arriving. That would apply to your child as well, of course.

You might be able to secure early release from self-isolating after 5 days if you pay for a private Covid test that comes back negative, so that would minimise the disruption. By October, hopefully this peak will have faded, otherwise you might face quarantine on your way back too.
   13344. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 19, 2021 at 06:54 PM (#6029606)
Yeah the cognitive dissonance from the likes of Berenson is staggering. Everyone who died after contracting COVID died “with COVID”, not “from COVID”, but they think everyone who died after getting vaccinated was killed by the vaccines.

They weren’t worried about COVID because it had a “99.X%” survival rate (where X varied from day to day and person to person*), but they’re terrified of a vaccine with a very low rate of serious side effects.

* my favorite was the guy who told me he wasn’t worried about a disease with only a 2.3% fatality rate. I was like “if this thing actually had a 2.3% fatality rate you would definitely be terrified of it. And even though it’s only 0.5-1%, you should still be worried enough to get vaccinated.”
   13345. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: July 20, 2021 at 10:46 AM (#6029647)
Yeah the cognitive dissonance from the likes of Berenson is staggering.

At this point the pandemic feels like a a novelization of Shirley Jackson's short story "The Lottery" where 299 of the extra 300 pages of the novel are devoted to obviously fallacious arguments about why the lottery must continue. I've been desperately looking for some sort of logic or rationale behind this behavior, and I'm just not seeing it.
   13346. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 20, 2021 at 11:02 AM (#6029651)
India's deaths estimated to be in the few million.
A report authored by Arvind Subramanian, the Indian government's former chief economic adviser, and two other researchers at the Center for Global Development, a nonprofit think tank based in Washington, and Harvard University was released Tuesday and estimated excess deaths to be 3 million to 4.7 million from January 2020 to June 2021. If stated that while the precise number of deaths may "prove elusive," the actual death toll "is likely to be an order of magnitude greater than the official count."


It's very hard to know for sure, but it seems very likely the world as a whole is pushing 10 million dead now.
   13347. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: July 20, 2021 at 11:04 AM (#6029653)
A report authored by Arvind Subramanian, the Indian government's former chief economic adviser, and two other researchers at the Center for Global Development, a nonprofit think tank based in Washington, and Harvard University was released Tuesday and estimated excess deaths to be 3 million to 4.7 million from January 2020 to June 2021. If stated that while the precise number of deaths may "prove elusive," the actual death toll "is likely to be an order of magnitude greater than the official count."
red flag warning
   13348. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 20, 2021 at 11:12 AM (#6029654)
I've been desperately looking for some sort of logic or rationale behind this behavior, and I'm just not seeing it.
I think it's personal and political gain. Berenson is much more popular and important now than he has ever been in his life. Probably making more money too. Politicians consolidate near term power at the expense of people's lives. The most effective near-term political game for the Republican Party is to own the libs, and vaccines have become associated with democrats. It wasn't that long ago when vaccine resistance was not that much of a partisan issue (though it has been a bit of one even since prior to the pandemic, see here). It only really became that way once Trump lost the election.

It's depressingly easy for people to believe that something is moral or even just true if they believe it benefits them personally, despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary.

   13349. RJ in TO Posted: July 20, 2021 at 11:28 AM (#6029659)
red flag warning
He's a co-author on a report that says things are perhaps a magnitude worse than previously acknowledged. I'm not sure where the red flag is supposed to be here.
   13350. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: July 20, 2021 at 12:16 PM (#6029668)
He's a co-author on a report that says things are perhaps a magnitude worse than previously acknowledged. I'm not sure where the red flag is supposed to be here.
as a general rule, economists are not scientists and they are terrible analysts.
   13351. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 20, 2021 at 10:13 PM (#6029735)
Haven’t read the report, but I don’t really find those India numbers credible, for what it’s worth. Their “waves” just weren’t long enough.
   13352. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 20, 2021 at 10:23 PM (#6029740)
Can't say whether that's true or not, but with India's demographics and when they were exposed to the virus, and mitigation efforts, there's not really a good reason to think they'd do much better than a number of other countries that are showing similar excess death numbers with somewhat similar demographics, like Mexico or Brazil. The low estimate for India right now has to be at least 2 million. I'd put the high estimate at around 5 million.
   13353. baxter Posted: July 21, 2021 at 01:25 AM (#6029798)
13348. Never heard of Mr. B (I don't get out much from my mother's basement); but I read he has/may have a show called "the covid contrarian." I wonder if it airs before or after "Sybil the Soothsayer?"
   13354. Eudoxus Posted: July 21, 2021 at 08:14 AM (#6029804)
On India number credibility: if you just take their Worldometer reported numbers and multiply by 10 (which moves their death total up to around 4 million), you get a peak death rate from their May wave of about 35 deaths/million/day. That's high (the US peaked at about 11, a bunch of eastern European nations peaked at about 25, Namibia is at about 29 right now), but not, I think, impossibly high. And there are big error bars around those numbers, which extend well into ranges we've seen in lots of other locations.
   13355. Greg Pope Posted: July 21, 2021 at 08:33 AM (#6029806)
I keep hearing that the numbers are going up in the US among young people. Is that an absolute number or just by percentage? In other words, are more young people getting COVID-19 now (presumably because of the Delta variant) or do they just form a larger percentage of the cases because so many older people are vaccinated?
   13356. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 21, 2021 at 08:41 AM (#6029807)
13355 more relative to when?

Average number of daily cases has more than tripled since the trough in June. Since vaccination numbers haven’t changed all that much since that time I assume that cases in all age groups are increasing. NYTimes link.

Also, younger people make up a greater percentage of cases now than they did earlier in the pandemic. When I was tracking the data in FL, cases in the 60+ age groups had declined by about half as a percentage of total cases. (I posted the numbers here a few pages ago, but off the top of my head they went from 20-25% of total cases to 10-12% of total cases after vaccination had ramped up.)

But absolute number of cases among the young are still certainly much lower than prior peaks, given absolute case numbers are still way below those levels. However, they are increasing very quickly.
   13357. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 21, 2021 at 09:15 AM (#6029813)
On India number credibility: if you just take their Worldometer reported numbers and multiply by 10 (which moves their death total up to around 4 million), you get a peak death rate from their May wave of about 35 deaths/million/day. That's high (the US peaked at about 11, a bunch of eastern European nations peaked at about 25, Namibia is at about 29 right now), but not, I think, impossibly high. And there are big error bars around those numbers, which extend well into ranges we've seen in lots of other locations.
In addition to this, the report estimated a much higher level of deaths than India was admitting in 2020, relative to what they were admitting. So (at least according to the report) they wouldn't have merely multiplied everything by 10 (to get to over 4 million, or verv close to 5 million). It would have been something more like multiplying early 2020 numbers by close to 20, late 2020 numbers by close to 15, and 2021 numbers by 7 or 8. (Very rough illustrative numbers of course.)

edit: based on the excess deaths numbers released by Mexico, they probably also peaked over 25 deaths/million/day, and are now probably around 3500 deaths per million total. Potentially higher. Adjusted for population over 65 that would be close to 4 million for India. If you believe Peru's numbers, they are much higher than that.
   13358. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 21, 2021 at 09:35 AM (#6029819)
I think Pakistan and Bangladesh, rather than Mexico and Peru, would be the most relevant comps for India. How do those countries stack up? Their reported numbers are even lower than India's but I'm sure they're all underreporting. It's just a question of whether they're underreporting by 0.5x, 2x, 5x, etc.

Based on excess deaths, has any other country in the world underreported deaths by a factor of 10-20x? Not saying it's impossible, but I will approach the paper with a fair dose of skepticism. It may just be a case of "garbage in, garbage out". I remember having trouble even finding reliable numbers for total deaths in India when I looked a while back.
   13359. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 21, 2021 at 10:08 AM (#6029824)
Based on excess deaths, has any other country in the world underreported deaths by a factor of 10-20x
Not that I am aware of, but these things aren't independent of one another. Countries that are most likely to be underreporting are generally also the ones for which excess death estimates are very hard to come by. As mentioned way, way, way upthread (could have even been the last thread) India is very bad at reporting deaths comprehensively even in the absence of covid, so we won't be getting any reliable official numbers for a long time, and maybe not ever.

I'm not sure about Pakistan and Bangladesh, but they seem to have even more reluctance to report cases and deaths than India. No official tallies of overall deaths there either, that I am aware of. Only 20-25% the number of cases per million have been reported in either place as compared to India (this would make them among the very least affected large countries in the world). 1/3 of the official deaths per million (also among the very least, similar to places with absolutely extreme measure like South Korea and Hong Kong). You can probably throw the numbers out as less than useless. I'd be pretty surprised if the real numbers weren't at least 10x higher.
   13360. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: July 21, 2021 at 10:40 AM (#6029829)
The pandemic shaved a full year and a half off Americans’ life expectancy in 2020, according to new, provisional data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The national drop in life expectancy from 78.8 years to 77.3 years once again shows the staggering human toll taken by the coronavirus over the last year, as American’s longevity plummeted by the largest amount in a single year since World War II
   13361. Eudoxus Posted: July 21, 2021 at 11:19 AM (#6029845)
I don't understand those life expectancy drop numbers. The linked article says that about 3/4 of the drop is attributable to COVID, so that's about 1.2 years from the expectancy. Given a population of 330,000,000, that's about 390,000,000 lost years. But the US death toll has been maybe 1,000,000 (by estimated deaths), so that's 390 years of lost life for each COVID fatality. (Of course there's some life expectancy shortening coming not through immediate deaths, but enough to make those numbers reasonable?)
   13362. Ron J Posted: July 21, 2021 at 01:13 PM (#6029861)
#13361 You don't have to die to affect life expectancy.
   13363. Eudoxus Posted: July 21, 2021 at 01:46 PM (#6029868)
Sure. But I still don't see how to make the numbers work. Maybe 20% of the US population has had COVID at this point. So each of them needs to be losing 6 years of life expectancy. What's happening to the median COVID patient that's costing them 6 years of life expectancy? (Also, how are we able to determine that those who haven't died have lost six years of life expectancy?)

Total COVID hospitalizations in the US look like they're at about 2.5 million. So if it's the hospitalized cases that are creating half of the life expectancy decrease, each of them needs to be losing about 75 years of life expectancy.
   13364. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: July 21, 2021 at 01:49 PM (#6029869)
Yes, life expectancy is essentially a naïve projection of mortality based on one year's mortality ratios (e.g. x% of all people age 72 died in 2020). I've been trying to work-out the algebra for a shortcut, but the calculation seems too tedious to me to yield a simple estimate.
   13365. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: July 21, 2021 at 01:57 PM (#6029871)
Imagine you had a population where nobody under the age of 71 died in 2019, but everybody 71 and over died. The life expectancy for that group is 71. In 2020 imagine everybody under the age of 70 survived, but everybody 70 and over died. The life expectancy for that group is 70. If you further assume that the population ages are uniform (for example, there are as many people age 10 as at age 68), then I think you would say that only 1.4% of the population lost a year, but you had a one year reduction in overall life expectancy.
   13366. Eudoxus Posted: July 21, 2021 at 02:13 PM (#6029876)
Yes, I tried setting up a toy model like that, but I couldn't make it make sense. In your example, there are two options. Either the younger people are now expected to die at age 70, rather than 71. Then everyone has lost a year of life. Or they're still expected to live to 71 -- but then it seems perverse to call the life expectancy 70.

So maybe the CDC life expectancy comes from assuming that those who are now young will encounter COVID mortality rates of the same sort that the current elderly population encountered in 2020, when they reach old age. I can see how that could strip 1.5 years off life expectancy. But that's what you get when you assume that 2020-level COVID mortality is now a permanent feature of our society, so that today's teenagers will be encountering the same pandemic conditions 60 years from now when they're 75+. That's a number useful for making some kind of point, I guess, but it's not something I'd call a life expectancy.
   13367. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: July 21, 2021 at 03:32 PM (#6029888)
Watching Olympic softball, it was the first time I felt an Empty Sports Stadium was actually weird. I think it was because of the truncated field made it feel like a beer league game.
   13368. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 21, 2021 at 03:38 PM (#6029891)
Long covid has to impact life expectancy, not just the deaths that have already occurred.

And their new life expectancy numbers probably include everyone's heightened chances to die from covid in 2021, not 60 years from now.



   13369. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: July 21, 2021 at 04:11 PM (#6029894)
And their new life expectancy numbers probably include everyone's heightened chances to die from covid in 2021, not 60 years from now.

I don't see how the CDC would achieve this when their life expectancy tables are based purely on 2020 death data. This is a quick summary of 2020 mortality more than a best estimate of how long someone born in 2020 will live.
   13370. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: July 21, 2021 at 04:20 PM (#6029897)
Covid-19 antibodies have been detected in 67% of the population of India, according to a new survey, indicating how widely the virus spread through communities during the second wave.

India’s fourth national sero-survey, which examines the prevalence of Covid-19 antibodies either through infection or vaccination, found that 67.6% of the population of more than 1.3 billion has coronavirus antibodies.

The survey also demonstrated the slow pace of India’s vaccination programme. Of those surveyed, 62.2% had not been vaccinated, 24.8% had taken one dose and 13% were fully vaccinated.

The survey result marks a significant rise from the last such survey which was conducted in December and January and found that just 24% of the population had antibodies. This recent survey was carried out in the final weeks of June and beginning of July, just as the second wave had abated, interviewing almost 29,000 people across India.



Graun
   13371. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 21, 2021 at 04:34 PM (#6029901)
The Trump party reps are finally coming around to encouraging vaccination. DeSantis and Tuberville just today and a bunch more earlier this week. Apparently the political risk of owning the delta deaths is no longer worth the short-term gain. Never mind the extra tens of thousands, maybe more, dead.

I wonder what useful idiots like Berenson will turn to now that the anti-vax rug has (hopefully) been pulled out from under him. No more primetime interviews on Fox. He could stick with the anti-vax and become more marginalized, which is a doubtful path for someone who has learned the benefits of the grift, or shift to the next target. My guess is he'll become an itinerant lackey for whatever pseudo-science the Trump party is pushing next.
   13372. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 21, 2021 at 05:55 PM (#6029912)
I’m gonna go out on a limb and say 62% of India has not had COVID.
   13373. Tony S Posted: July 21, 2021 at 06:40 PM (#6029920)
The Trump party reps are finally coming around to encouraging vaccination. DeSantis and Tuberville just today and a bunch more earlier this week. Apparently the political risk of owning the delta deaths is no longer worth the short-term gain. Never mind the extra tens of thousands, maybe more, dead.


My guess is that their agenda was to keep vax numbers down so they could label the President as a "failure", and peel off some votes that way.

But they probably did the math and realized that delta could very well ravage their voter base enough to cancel that out, and then some.

That said, I don't think we have a full picture yet of how effective the vaccines are against delta. The "almost-everybody-who-died-was-unvaccinated" stories date from an environment where delta wasn't the dominant variant yet (and vaccines were less widespread). But I'd obviously rather deal with delta with the vaccine than without it.

I picked up my friend today. (His partner stayed behind a little longer.) He wore his mask throughout the flight, and we both wore it in the car. Delta doesn't seem to be a big deal in Brazil yet; he hadn't really heard how bad it's gotten here.
   13374. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 21, 2021 at 07:07 PM (#6029925)
I should say that if 62% had COVID then I believe those high end fatality estimates (they might even be too low).

   13375. Tony S Posted: July 21, 2021 at 07:13 PM (#6029926)
Exceptional interview with an Alabama doctor.

What I don’t understand is why there is so much political pushback for mask requirements or for that matter, vaccine mandates. Somehow this has become so political that people are talking about in some states making it illegal to have mask mandates in their state. I don’t understand. I guess they just want to see people die. But it doesn’t make sense to me why they would have prohibition on a mask mandate when you’re dealing with a public emergency. It’s indescribable to me.


A lot of the decision-making for this fall, especially with regard to football stadiums and getting back to life as a semblance of normal, was based on the assumption that the vast majority of citizens would be vaccinated. That’s not happened, to a lot of people’s surprise including me. It’s not rocket science. If you put a lot of people in a space, even if it’s outdoors, packed in next to one another and the majority of those people are not vaccinated...if you’re sitting next to someone who’s infected and they’re yelling and screaming like people do at a football game, they’re spewing virus into the environment and almost certainly it’s going to be a Delta variant, which means all you have to do is breathe in that air for about a minute and you’re going to walk away from that football game infected if you’re not vaccinated. This is just common sense and logic.


The whole thing is worth reading.
   13376. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 21, 2021 at 07:23 PM (#6029927)
I’m gonna go out on a limb and say 62% of India has not had COVID.
What is your best guess? The best guess for the USA is a little over 30% I believe, some say as high as 40%. India had the much more transmissable delta variant long before we did and no vaccinations to stop it. I'd be very surprised it India was under 40%, and pretty surprised if it were under 50%. I would definitely not be surprised if it were 60%.

If it were exactly 50%, that's 700 million people. With an IFR in india of probably at least 0.4%, it's not unlikely that 3 million people have died from the virus. (0.4% represents younger people but poor healthcare-a 1% IFR or so based on the US aging curve, whereas here we seem to have been at at least 0.7% for the whole period pre-vaccine, though probably much less now that lots of people are vaccinated.)

edit: probably worth noting, but if Peru's excess death numbers are to be believed, the IFR for countries with poor healthcare could be well over 1% adjusted for the US aging curve. Could easily be as high as 1.5%.
   13377. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: July 21, 2021 at 08:42 PM (#6029938)
At least two years after it would have been politically prudent to do so, Facebook moved to block content under the #VaccinesKill hashtag on Wednesday.
...
The move to block the hashtag comes about a week after the Biden administration appealed to social media sites to get tough on what it had unofficially dubbed the “disinformation dozen” — a group of “about 12 people who are producing 65% of anti-vaccine misinformation on social media platforms,” according to White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki.
...
Interestingly, Instagram — which is owned by Facebook — took steps to block the #VaccinesKill hashtag back in 2019 (it remains blocked as of this writing).

   13378. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 21, 2021 at 09:06 PM (#6029945)
What is your best guess?

20-30%

But I haven’t done any analysis or read the two reports mentioned above. I just started a new job on Monday so don’t have much free time, but if I get around to it I’ll try to run some numbers.

But my gut feeling is that every time we (not actually the people on this thread) think someplace has reached herd immunity, it turns out they are nowhere close. I suspect India is no different.
   13379. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 21, 2021 at 10:03 PM (#6029953)
With delta variant, consensus is herd immunity is well over 80%. Possibly over 90%.

What do you think the US infection rate is? How could it possibly be more than India?

   13380. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 21, 2021 at 10:33 PM (#6029963)
I think the US is 30-35%. I think it could easily be more than India.

India had a bad two months. Until then, they were regarded as a modest COVID “success story”. The US has had like four or five bad two-month periods (if you count Oct-Jan as two two-month periods).

India’s most recent wave shows they know how to test and count to high numbers, and that if things get really bad there, the information will get out. We just never saw anything resembling that in India up until that wave. So basically you have to believe that 20+% of India’s population got infected in 2 months to believe 60% of the country has had it. That’s like a peak NYC scenario realized over an entire country of 1.3 billion people in a similar time frame. Just doesn’t seem possible to me, delta or no delta. But like I said, I’m willing to take a closer look at the numbers and be convinced otherwise. I could probably believe 40%, but not 60+%.

EDIT: Remember when Sweden basically tried to achieve herd immunity and then tested their population and found that only like 6-7% of people had antibodies? Similar with the UK. This disease spreads quickly but not that quickly, even taking into account the delta variant. And 700+ million is a *lot* of cases.
   13381. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 21, 2021 at 11:12 PM (#6029967)
India is showing 67% of the population with antibodies, while 25% have had at least one shot. Which would leave 42%+ who had covid? Still a high number.

Obviously none of these numbers are precise and not everyone with one shot is testing for antibodies.


   13382. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 22, 2021 at 12:26 AM (#6029979)
Deaths per million per day: Hungary and Czechia averaged close to 25 for a while, and touched 30. Azerbaijan too I think. Mexico by government excess death numbers close to that as well. Peru supposedly as much as 30. Early on, Ecuador at its peak was estimated over 40, maybe 45, for at least a short period of time. India at a multiple of 8x is only right around 25 at its very peak. Seems well within the range of possibility.

Something has caused India's cases and deaths to go way down, even with the delta variant, which shouldn't encounter much resistance until well over 50% of the population is infected. See the UK today, for example, where 60% is vaccinated and cases are shooting up. Most likely this something is the beginning of local saturation where the virus has burned through regions, encountering herd resistance, and is now finding its way much more slowly into harder to reach populations.

The economist has some graphs, which are done on a weekly average per 100,000 (so, multiply by 1.4 to get daily per million). US states hit these heights. New York state hit 60 (city way higher of course), New Jersey 50, Spain hit 35, Portugal 30, Belgium, UK, Italy hit 25. Bulgaria hit 50 and probably averaged over 30 for 2 months, though they are much older than India as a population. South Africa got close to 40.
   13383. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 22, 2021 at 12:36 AM (#6029982)
Czech Republic probably had 30% or more get infected in 5 months or so. That's without the way more contagious delta variant. Yes India has way more people, but it also has a much higher population density (3x). India is the 6th most densely populated country in the world, of countries with more than 10 million people. 10th most dense if you go all the way down to 2 million people.
   13384. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 22, 2021 at 12:53 AM (#6029985)
All the numbers in 13382 are also pre-delta. Factor in delta, as was the case for India's recent wave, and you could easily reach much higher numbers.
   13385. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 22, 2021 at 01:06 AM (#6029986)
Something has caused India's cases and deaths to go way down, even with the delta variant, which shouldn't encounter much resistance until well over 50% of the population is infected. See the UK today, for example, where 60% is vaccinated and cases are shooting up. Most likely this something is the beginning of local saturation where the virus has burned through regions, encountering herd resistance, and is now finding its way much more slowly into harder to reach populations.

Remember the people who said that Sweden had reached herd immunity last summer...and then said Florida had reached herd immunity in September...and said it again in January...and so on? Heck, people were saying it about India itself before the most recent wave, because how else did they get the wave before that under control? COVID waves are difficult to predict and explain but every time it goes down people think it can only be because of herd immunity, and seemingly every time they're proven wrong.
   13386. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 22, 2021 at 01:25 AM (#6029989)
Herd resistance, localized. Not really herd immunity. Those earlier herd immunity claims were accompanied by very low estimates of deaths, and also often (but not always) by serosurveys that showed low levels of infection. If you believe 4 million or even 5 million for India then it would require a high percentage of the population to have been infected. If you believe even 2 million dead, which I think has to be the very low estimate for India, and a age-adjusted IFR (to the USA of 2.0%), which I think has to be the absolute highest, you still have close to 20% of India infected. That's within the realm of possibility but wouldn't be my mean estimate. I'd probably put it close to 4 million, with close to 50% infected and a 1.5% or below age-adjusted IFR to the USA. 50% is still nowhere near herd immunity with delta around, but should be enough to slow down the transmission as it works its way through harder to reach populations.
   13387. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 22, 2021 at 01:25 AM (#6029990)
Czech Republic probably had 30% or more get infected in 5 months or so.

Czech Republic had 6+ months (Oct 2020-Apr 2021) where the average daily cases never went below 1/4 of their peak. In India the equivalent time period was about 2 months. They'd probably have needed an outbreak as severe as New York *City* (not New York State) did in March-April 2020, across their entire country of 1.3 billion, to have gotten to 60% infected. So I am very skeptical of any reports claiming 60+% have been infected. As I said initially, their "waves" just weren't long enough.

I both hope I'm wrong (because it would be great if they're near herd immunity) and that I'm right (because it will mean that a lot fewer people have died so far than people are estimating). I'd rather spend the time going through those reports than making comparisons to other countries, because the latter is not going to be convincing.
   13388. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 22, 2021 at 01:34 AM (#6029991)
Herd resistance, localized. Not really herd immunity.

My hypothesis is that when people see a bad outbreak happening around them, enough of them modify their behavior so that the outbreak burns out at a much lower level than would be required for herd immunity under normal circumstances. And then they eventually let their guard down (often combined with a change of seasons, some super spreader holiday events, etc.) and you get another outbreak. I'm not an epidemiologist but it's the only explanation that seems to fit the data.
   13389. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 22, 2021 at 01:53 AM (#6029992)
ok yeah that definitely happens too. it goes hand-in-hand with herd resistance though. Some fraction of the population won't be deterred at all, no matter how many people die around them. Others will be a bit deterred, some won't come out until it's absolutely safe.

In the presence of delta though, and maybe also overall fatigue of the virus, it seems the effect of this is happening at much higher levels of immunity than before.

In the report, one of the ways of estimating deaths in India is through official death reports, though that only covers some of the states and is extrapolated to the rest. Under that method they estimate a 1.5 million to 2 million rather than .24 million, so a multiplier of 6 to 8 (6 would only get you to 20 deaths/million/day, which is easily believable). They also estimate a base case of 3.4 million this way, though they indicate it could easily be as high as 4 million. Another way they estimated is working backward from assumed IFR and serosurveys, which basically just does a circle of our conversation above, so doesn't provide any independent information. The last way involves a consumer survey and a multitude of adjustments, and I didn't have the patience to try to follow it.
   13390. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 22, 2021 at 01:54 AM (#6029993)
I both hope I'm wrong (because it would be great if they're near herd immunity) and that I'm right (because it will mean that a lot fewer people have died so far than people are estimating).
I don't know how you get there from here. If 50% have been infected and 4 million are dead, that is not fewer than expected, it is what would be expected.
   13391. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 22, 2021 at 02:07 AM (#6029994)

I don't know how you get there from here. If 50% have been infected and 4 million are dead, that is not fewer than expected, it is what would be expected.

Right, but if it's 20-30% instead of 50%, then it would lend more credibility to the 1.5-2 million estimates rather than the 4+ million estimates.
   13392. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: July 22, 2021 at 07:28 AM (#6029997)
So Trump and his ilk are anti-vaxx, even tho he was the one who pushed for the vaccines in the first place? Funny that.
   13393. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 22, 2021 at 01:38 PM (#6030042)
Donald Trump, about vaccinating children:

“Now we have to get back and the schools have to get open—and frankly, we’re lucky we have the vaccine. But the vaccine on very young people is something that you gotta really stop,” Trump inexplicably said. “You have to get back to running your country—I mean, I don’t see reasons—and I am a big believer in what we did with the vaccine. It’s incredible what we did. You see the results. But to have every school child, where it’s 99.99%, they just don’t—you know, they’re just not affected or affected badly. Having to receive a vaccine I think is something that you should start thinking about, because I think it’s unnecessary.



So, yeah.
   13394. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 22, 2021 at 01:55 PM (#6030045)
A bit more on that CDC 1-year life expectancy decline data discussed in 13360-69. It’s more like 5 days:
The CDC’s life expectancy calculations are, in fact, life expectancy projections (the technical term for the measure is period life expectancy). The calculation is based on a crucial assumption: that for the year you are studying (2019 compared to 2020 in this case) the risk of death, in every age group, will stay as it was in that year for everyone born during it.

So to project the life expectancy of people born in 2020, the CDC assumed that newborns will face the risk of dying that newborns did in 2020. Then when they turn 1, they face the risk of dying that 1-year-olds did in 2020. Then on to them being 2 years old, and so on.
. . .
Don’t blame the method. It’s a standard one that over time has been a highly useful way of understanding how our efforts in public health have succeeded or fallen short. Because it is a projection, it can (and should) serve as an early warning of how people in our society will do in the future if we do nothing different from today.

But in this case, the CDC should assume, as do we all, that Covid-19 will cause an increase in mortality for only a brief period relative to the span of a normal lifetime. If you assume the Covid-19 risk of 2020 carries forward unabated, you will overstate the life expectancy declines it causes. It’s not like I am the first person to notice this problem. Researchers have regularly demonstrated that life expectancy projections are overly sensitive to evanescent events like pandemics and wars, resulting in considerably overestimated declines.
Seems like this could have been better explained (or reported?) when the data was released. More at link.
   13395. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: July 22, 2021 at 01:57 PM (#6030046)
michael irvin making sense:

"not being one of the [vaccinated teams] says there’s other things to a great number of people on this team that are more important than winning championships and that makes me worried.”
...
“If you’re not one of the [vaccinated] teams are you really thinking about winning a championship?”
...
“If I’m on a team in this situation I’m going to make sure to ask, ‘You get vaccinated? You get vaccinated?’” Irvin said. “Somebody in that damn locker room needs to say, ‘Hey man, we’re going to have a chance, are you vaccinated? Let’s go through this because this could be two weeks, a healthy dude missing games. In this league that could be it for you. The [wrong] person misses two weeks, and that’s it. You’re [butt] is out. I’ll fight a [expletive].”

and from the defector:
while this is unmistakably a conservative argument for vaccination—how can you say you are serious about excelling at work and avoiding distractions and destroying your rivals if you won’t protect yourself against the virus with a vaccine?—it is also the first such argument for vaccination that we’ve seen in earnest, even all these months into the push.

   13396. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 22, 2021 at 02:10 PM (#6030048)

A b it more on that CDC 1-year life expectancy decline data discussed in 13360-69. It’s more like 5 days:


His calculations to support the "5 days" number are nonsense:

But wait. Analysts estimate that, on average, a death from Covid-19 robs its victim of around 12 years of life. Approximately 400,000 Americans died Covid-19 in 2020, meaning about 4.8 million years of life collectively vanished. Spread that ghastly number across the U.S. population of 330 million and it comes out to 0.014 years of life lost per person. That’s 5.3 days. There were other excess deaths in 2020, so maybe the answer is seven days lost per person.


You obviously have to factor in that additional people will die (and in fact, have died) of COVID after 2020. It's not like the people who died in 2020 were the only ones whose life expectancy was affected.
   13397. Zonk Will Be Reinstated in August Posted: July 22, 2021 at 02:21 PM (#6030050)
I mentioned as an aside at the other place -

But one thing I think they ought to do more of in vaccine outreach is emphasize the fact that it's actually *free*.

At a family thing last month, a member of my quite extended family - she's apolitical, doesn't watch cable news, doesn't go on the internet, etc - said she wasn't vaccinated because she was worried about getting the bill. She's older, fixed income, etc -- and just had no idea that you neither pay up front nor end up getting a surprise bill.

After that, I started paying attention a bit more closely to the PSAs - and yeah, the ones I've seen? Nary a mention of the fact that it's free - no out-of-pocket, no bills to come, etc.

There are most definitely bigger problems - and damn the people responsible - but we're at the scratching and clawing point on reaching critical mass.... and I think there's a decent enough chunk, just based on this anecdotal instance that hey, maybe I'm overbroadening (but I don't think so) who just aren't aware that you can get the jab completely free of charge.

If I were handling the vaccine outreach PR campaign - I'd give up on combating the 5G chippers, rothschild NWO paranoids, and Dr Mama Juju Demon Sperm Gab followers. I think there are significant pockets of hesitants who are not so much averse, but simply don't understand you can likely get the jab while on an errand to drug store, etc and that it will cost you absolutely nothing.

   13398. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 22, 2021 at 02:46 PM (#6030053)
But one thing I think they ought to do more of in vaccine outreach is emphasize the fact that it's actually *free*.

When they made a big deal that it is free, plenty of those on the right have yelled that its free because its evil and the government just wants to inject a chip in your arm. You can't win with these people.


   13399. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 22, 2021 at 02:57 PM (#6030057)
His calculations to support the "5 days" number are nonsense:
. . .
You obviously have to factor in that additional people will die (and in fact, have died) of COVID after 2020. It's not like the people who died in 2020 were the only ones whose life expectancy was affected.
I think his point was that the CDC projection was just based on 2020 data, and that data alone supports closer to 5 days rather than the CDC’s 1 year estimate, if you don’t assume that Covid, or something similar, will be a permanent fixture.
   13400. Zonk Will Be Reinstated in August Posted: July 22, 2021 at 02:57 PM (#6030058)
When they made a big deal that it is free, plenty of those on the right have yelled that its free because its evil and the government just wants to inject a chip in your arm. You can't win with these people.


Again, though - it's not those people I'm concerned with. They're a lost cause.

We're scratching and clawing to the numbers we need to get at - and we should be looking to pockets that are reachable. I think there do exist pockets who are just unaware of the fact that you can get vaccinated without charge at the local drug store.

Ordinarily, in most things - I'm in favor of tackling the biggest and hardest problems first. But - this is a numbers game. If there's just 1-2% - and I think it's at least that many - who simply aren't aware of the fact that it will cost you nothing but 15 minutes of your time, we should be going after that low hanging fruit and any like it.

Just on my own - I was playing around with some maps this afternoon on vaccination rates by county *and* affluence/income/lack thereof. I really do think there's something to be gained here by putting a focus on the lack of cost - and hey, maybe along with that - stand-up clinics and vaccination events.

Maybe it doesn't get us to the number we need to get to, but I think there's just more fertile ground to be found with a tailored PR and on-the-ground effort geared towards the easier gets.
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