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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 13576 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   13401. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 22, 2021 at 03:55 PM (#6030066)
We're scratching and clawing to the numbers we need to get at - and we should be looking to pockets that are reachable. I think there do exist pockets who are just unaware of the fact that you can get vaccinated without charge at the local drug store.

That is a good point. A huge swath will never get it. But it'd be great to target small populations like the one you're suggesting.
   13402. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 22, 2021 at 04:41 PM (#6030071)
I think his point was that the CDC projection was just based on 2020 data, and that data alone supports closer to 5 days rather than the CDC’s 1 year estimate, if you don’t assume that Covid, or something similar, will be a permanent fixture.

Yes, like I said, nonsense. That’s not how life expectancy works and not what the CDC was purporting to calculate.
   13403. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 22, 2021 at 04:46 PM (#6030072)
Case numbers out of Florida are really quite discouraging. Probably not surprising De Santis has urged vaccination all of a sudden, but it may be too little too late. It's hard to know where this will peak, but if it goes up for even another full week (until the end of next week), Florida conceivably could be experiencing its most daily reported cases ever. Anyone who would show up as a positive case in Florida by the end of next week is in all likelihood already infected today.

On the other hand, early signs of case slowdown in the UK or just a blip? Fewer cases today than last week, so maybe delta can reverse almost as quickly as it spreads. With freedom day having just happened there though, we could see another upturn in a week or two.

   13404. Greg Pope Posted: July 22, 2021 at 06:05 PM (#6030076)
So in regards to India, I’m seeing a Facebook post that says that the 67% number is proof that masking doesn’t work and that COVID isn’t really that bad. What do the numbers actually say?
   13405. Srul Itza Posted: July 22, 2021 at 06:09 PM (#6030077)
In Hawaii, things are getting real again.

In May and early June, cases were in the 40's to 60's

Recently, 5 straight days of tripe digits, around 120-160

Today, 243.

   13406. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 22, 2021 at 07:02 PM (#6030081)
No one knows for sure the real numbers in India, and you can read a bit about that on the last page.

One consistent thing though is that all along India has claimed to be a miracle country with very high infection rates and very low deaths. That part proved to be pure BS last year (as shown by this latest delta wave in India) and almost certainly continues to be pure BS now. There are really two options here--actual cases are way lower than 67& (like, under 15% or something), or deaths are way, way higher than 400,000. My minorly educated guess is the latter. I think deaths are at least 3 million, certainly over 2 million, and probably more like 4 million. Even 5 million wouldn't surprise me. Those high death numbers have some support in death survey data, and would be consistent with a seroprevalance of 40% to 67% infected.

How well does masking work in the presence of delta? No idea, and I also have no idea how well India was even masking in the first place.
   13407. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 22, 2021 at 07:23 PM (#6030084)
India at 4 million deaths (280 per 100,000) wouldn't be any outlier based on this data set from the economist. Yes, India is younger and the bulk, or at least half, of the death totals would have been amassed more quickly than most (but not all) of the other countries listed. But India is a very densely populated country and half or more of the totals came once the delta variant hit, neither condition having been met for the times most of the other countries achieved their totals. Also, India's health care system was very much not equipped for this, as multiple news stories have expressed.

Another note is that the serosurveys done in India have so far shown an increase each time more or less consistent with the increase in reported cases, just multiplied by some huge factor: 0.7% last May-June, 7.1% last August-September, 24.7% this January-February, and 67% this May-June. So if they are overcounting they are doing it in a fairly consistent way.
   13408. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 22, 2021 at 09:58 PM (#6030093)
   13409. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: July 22, 2021 at 10:45 PM (#6030100)
or deaths are way, way higher than 400,000. My minorly educated guess is the latter.


Something thing to keep in mind about the "official" numbers, especially during the delta surge, was that Modi's BJP was locked in a critical election campaign in West Bengal, a state not controlled by the BJP. A number of the hardest surge hit states (I'm looking at you Uttar Pradesh) were run by BJP and Modi cronies (I'm looking at you, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath) and frankly, numbers or reports that made Modi look bad at the time were NOT going to happen.

Police in India are prosecuting a man who used Twitter to try to find oxygen for his dying grandfather.

Officers in Uttar Pradesh state charged Shashank Yadav with spreading a rumour over oxygen shortages "with intent to cause... fear or alarm".

Mr Yadav, who did not refer to Covid in his brief tweet, could face jail.

Uttar Pradesh is among India's worst-hit states. Its chief minister, Yogi Adityanath, is accused of downplaying the severity of the coronavirus crisis.

Earlier this week, Mr Adityanath, a right-wing ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, demanded that the property of anyone spreading rumours and propaganda be seized.


BBC

The second story on that page: 'Questionable Covid case numbers', contains this little snippet.

On one day this month, health officials said 68 people had died across the entire state - but one newspaper ran a headline quoting officials in the capital, Lucknow, as saying they had recorded 98 Covid funerals just in that city alone.
   13410. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 23, 2021 at 04:53 AM (#6030107)
Seeing the first pop-up 'no appointment needed' locations for vaccination here in Germany, as the EU is finally catching up with the levels of fully-vaccinated adults achieved in the US. I would be taking them up on it, but as I have a vaccination appointment in a few weeks for my 2nd shot, I think I'm already at the minimum period between jabs here (6 weeks).

An article in the Guardian today claimed that the highest immune response/number of antibodies using Pfizer/BioNTech was seen with an 8-week gap between 1st and 2nd jabs, although that has to be balanced against the risk of potentially going longer with reduced protection against Covid - and more antibodies does not necessarily translate directly into even better protection from Covid.

Also, an interesting Twitter thread suggesting that the recent rise in cases in the UK started cresting earlier in Scotland, in part, because they were knocked out of Euro 2020(/1) in the group stage, whereas England got to the final.
   13411. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: July 23, 2021 at 07:53 AM (#6030109)
Israel is re-establishing restrictions -- masks, testing, green passes -- as they've found the Pfizer vaccine is only 39% effective against infections. Pfizer is much more effective in preventing "serious" illness, but as we know, "serious" means hospitalization or death, and not just you feel like you were hit by a truck. The Israel study found that effectiveness might diminish with time, but that conclusion is less certain, since the earlier groups may just be more prone to illness than later vaccination groups.

I don't think I'm going to Cincinnati this weekend to see the Cardinals.
   13412. Lassus Posted: July 23, 2021 at 08:06 AM (#6030110)
as they've found the Pfizer vaccine is only 39% effective against infections.

I've found this whole thing a bit weird. Worrying, sure, as I have Pfizer, but it seems vaguely out of nowhere and a possible outlier. Am I the only one who's thought so? Rose-colored classes? Justified skepticism?
   13413. sanny manguillen Posted: July 23, 2021 at 08:09 AM (#6030111)
BB-Ref has recorded 63 deaths of former MLB players in 2021, compared to 65 through July 22 last year. In 2019, there were 55 deaths through July 22. There have been 22 deaths since April 1, compared to 40 deaths in the same period last year and 22 in 2019.

   13414. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 23, 2021 at 08:40 AM (#6030112)
Israel is re-establishing restrictions -- masks, testing, green passes -- as they've found the Pfizer vaccine is only 39% effective against infections


Can I get a link to that? Very surprising stat.
   13415. Tony S Posted: July 23, 2021 at 08:52 AM (#6030114)
On mobile so can't supply the link but the 39% study is on bloomberg.com.

With the caveat that it's only one study, and it's an outlier, it does seem like the numbers get a little bit worse (as a group) with every new set of studies.

It's possible that Israel, being one of the earliest countries to mass vaccinate, has hit the time limit for the effectiveness of the vax ahead of everyone else. Just speculation.
   13416. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: July 23, 2021 at 08:55 AM (#6030115)
Link:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-23/pfizer-shot-just-39-effective-in-halting-delta-israel-says?srnd=premium

   13417. bunyon Posted: July 23, 2021 at 09:25 AM (#6030119)
In a hurry so can’t read TFA but Israel is small and rich. They’re likely testing a lot more than other countries. Given that groups with testing regimens are getting a lot of vaccinated positives (eg the Yankees), if most of those Israeli positives are asymptomatic or extremely mild, I could buy the number.

Vaccinated people in the USA aren’t generally getting tested so we could be missing a lot of asymptomatic or (dictionary) mild cases.
   13418. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 23, 2021 at 09:43 AM (#6030122)
If most of those Israeli positives are asymptomatic or extremely mild, I could buy the number
Yes, Israel is also saying that most of the vaccinated cases are mild, and that vaccinations are still very effective at preventing serious illness.

A full course of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was just 39% effective at preventing infections and 41% effective at preventing symptomatic infections caused by the Delta Covid-19 variant, according to Israel’s health ministry, down from early estimates of 64% two weeks ago.
The figures, based on data from an unspecified number of people between June 20 and July 17, are significantly lower than previous estimates of the vaccine’s efficacy against other variants, which initial clinical trials found to be 95%. ...
The vaccine still provides very high levels of protection against hospitalization (92%) and severe illness (91%) caused by the Delta variant, the ministry said.
   13419. Lassus Posted: July 23, 2021 at 09:46 AM (#6030124)
95% to 39% still seems like a crazy drop, but I suppose there are the positives of far lesser severity.
   13420. Tony S Posted: July 23, 2021 at 10:00 AM (#6030126)

It seems to me that when alpha first emerged and there was no vaccine, the expectations were that (a) most of the cases would be "mild" or asymptomatic, and (b) hospitalizations would run around 10%.

So, according to this one study, a vaccinated person is about as vulnerable to delta now as we all were to alpha a year and a half ago.

Which would imply that we're about to see a bloodbath among the unvaccinated, and some leakage into the vaccinated.

Or am I reading this wrong? I need some good news. :(
   13421. Lassus Posted: July 23, 2021 at 10:05 AM (#6030127)
Which would imply that we're about to see a bloodbath among the unvaccinated, and some leakage into the vaccinated.

I'm not sure about the implication, this is what seemed to be a given since the level of anti-vaxx lunacy really got going in April.


So, according to this one study, a vaccinated person is about as vulnerable to delta now as we all were to alpha a year and a half ago.

I'll let the smarter people answer, but this to me seems like an oversell.
   13422. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 23, 2021 at 10:23 AM (#6030131)
The vaccine still provides very high levels of protection against hospitalization (92%) and severe illness (91%) caused by the Delta variant, the ministry said.
I interpreted this to mean, versus unvaccinated, without any implication about how likely a delta case would lead to serious illness or death in an unvaccinated person. So, for the sake of illustration, if delta hospitalizations as a percentage of cases is 15% among unvaccinated, rather than 10% for alpha, then hospitalizations among vaccinated would be around 1.5% of cases.

The UK is seeing a massive spike in cases and only a small uptick in hospitalizations and deaths. So it can't be that the same number of delta cases v alpha cases are leading to more deaths, at least in the presence of significant vaccination.

edit: actually the above is probably not right. It's probably 91% v non-vaccinated, but also taking into account the likelihood of contracting the virus in the first place. so, a vaccinated person exposed to the virus is 91% less likely to get a serious illness, but that might include the 39% more chance they will not get infected in the first place.

One of the problems with the Israeli information is I don't think they've released the data, so it's unclear what it means exactly.
   13423. bunyon Posted: July 23, 2021 at 11:04 AM (#6030135)
That is my read now.

Keep in mind, vaccines (nor the entire immune system) work like a wall, keeping stuff out. If you go sit in a closed room with a bunch of COVID patients, you will breathe in virus and it will be in your mucus and blood. If you were recently vaccinated, you may have antibodies already made which go to work immediately. More likely, your immune system has to detect the virus and go through a process of building those antibodies up. It doesn't take long in someone otherwise healthy but I can completely imagine a community with high infection where most people have virus in them without ever knowing it.
   13424. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 23, 2021 at 11:15 AM (#6030139)
Keep in mind, vaccines (nor the entire immune system) work like a wall, keeping stuff out. If you go sit in a closed room with a bunch of COVID patients, you will breathe in virus and it will be in your mucus and blood. If you were recently vaccinated, you may have antibodies already made which go to work immediately. More likely, your immune system has to detect the virus and go through a process of building those antibodies up. It doesn't take long in someone otherwise healthy but I can completely imagine a community with high infection where most people have virus in them without ever knowing it.


This is well outside my area of expertise, so I could be talking out of my ass. But my understanding of how the mRNA vaccines work is basically they teach your immune system to recognize COVID and how to fight it. But that implies to me that it doesn't really kick in until the virus actually makes it into your body for the immune system to see. And then the "how to fight it" process may take some time.

So I would think that there's a (brief?) window where a vaccinated person who's exposed "has" COVID. It's just (usually / hopefully) a very short time before the vaccine's instructions kick in and the immune system does its job.

So, per #13417, if you test vaccinated folks regularly, there's a higher chance you catch them right at that moment where they've been "infected" but the vaccine hasn't finished doing its job.

MLB's protocol says you're clear if you get two negative tests following a positive. A few times last season, someone tested positive and then negative like the next day and the assumption was that the initial test was a "false positive". I wonder if now, for vaccinated people, the first test was a legit "positive" and the subsequent negatives are indicative of how quickly the vaccine kicks in.

Or, as I said, I could be full of #### here.
   13425. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 23, 2021 at 11:37 AM (#6030147)
Another day where cases went down significantly in the UK. Unless freedom day turns out to have been a big tactical error, the UK might top out at averaging less than 100 deaths a day (7-day average). They hit over 1200 in the last wave.
   13426. bunyon Posted: July 23, 2021 at 11:46 AM (#6030150)
Kiko, that's my read and understanding. I just don't know how long the time between exposure and strong enough response that you'd test negative is. It shouldn't be long but, with high enough exposure, maybe a day or two?

Also, most people for a few weeks after vaccination likely have IgG and IgM actually in the blood and the response would be damned near instantaneous.
   13427. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 23, 2021 at 12:07 PM (#6030157)
In the UK, half the people that are known to have been infected with delta and died were fully vaccinated, according to the latest data. With 95% of seniors fully vaccinated, that implies incredible success. Assuming few others than seniors are dying that simple-mindedly means that vaccines are reducing the likelihood of death by over 90%. 80% of delta cases were among the not fully vaccinated. 50% of the cases in people over 50 were among the not fully vaccinated (again, implies great success in preventing cases, since people over 50 are fully vaccinated at something like 90% in the UK).

To make this data square with the Israel data (though I think the vaccines may be difference), you would need a large number of mild vaccinated cases not to be reported in the UK, which is plausible.
   13428. Tony S Posted: July 23, 2021 at 12:29 PM (#6030163)
Here's a bit more info on that Israeli study. The most interesting bit:

The report has also reflected the decreasing potency of the vaccination, showing a mere 16 percent effectiveness against transmission among those vaccinated in January, compared to 44 percent of those vaccinated in February, 67 percent of those who received their shots in March, and 75 percent for those vaccinated in April.


Good data point for boosters.
   13429. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 23, 2021 at 12:36 PM (#6030164)
Interesting. Also this:
The vaccine’s effectiveness at preventing severe cases for those vaccinated in January remains 86 percent, according to the figures, only slightly lower than those vaccinated in the following months.

   13430. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 23, 2021 at 12:58 PM (#6030170)
I'm actually pretty encouraged by these numbers and recent vaccine uptake. With this delta wave coming and winter not that far away I was pretty convinced we'd cross the 1 million deaths (excess) mark. We are currently at about 750,000. Now, if the UK's wave can reverse and we have pretty good protection for those who have already chosen to get vaccinated, it might not be that bad nationally. Then if a large fraction of the holdouts wake up due to the recent encouragement plus the likely deaths we will see in this wave, we could be in a pretty good position going into winter.

Globally the economist estimated 10 million had died (7 million to 13 million 95% confidence interval) by the beginning of May. Their estimate must be near 10 million on the low side now, with 16-18 million on the high side.
   13431. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 23, 2021 at 01:13 PM (#6030173)
One more point about India. To have 2 million excess deaths in 2 months seems extreme, but it is "only" 150% above their baseline. According to the Economist, Peru has supposedly matched this 150% above for 8 months total, in two separate 4-month stretches. A lot of other countries have also matched it, or very close to it, for a month or more, including Spain, Bulgaria, Ecuador, Mexico, Bolivia, Armenia, North Macedonia, Kazakshtan, and Azerbaijan. In most but not all of these other countries it would have required quite a few more deaths per population too, since they have older populations (so the baseline absent covid is higher).
   13432. Greg Pope Posted: July 23, 2021 at 02:30 PM (#6030188)
But my understanding of how the mRNA vaccines work is basically they teach your immune system to recognize COVID and how to fight it. But that implies to me that it doesn't really kick in until the virus actually makes it into your body for the immune system to see. And then the "how to fight it" process may take some time.

That's not exactly correct. mRNA actually instructs your own cells to create a look-alike for the virus. Your cells create that look-alike and your immune system kicks in to fight it. From your immune system's point of view, the mRNA vaccines are just like traditional vaccines. The difference is how the "virus" gets into your body.

If you get COVID, the actual virus is there. The immune system recognizes it and develops the antibodies*. This takes some time while the virus is doing its damage. Usually a couple of weeks. Eventually (if you make it) the body has enough defenses to fight it off.

In a traditional vaccine, they have weakened or dead versions of the virus that they inject. Your immune system does the same thing as above. It sees a foreign object and develops the antibodies. Still takes a few weeks to get everything going, but since the virus is dead it doesn't replicate and you don't get sick.

In an mRNA vaccine, they inject messenger RNA. That tells your cells to produce something that looks like the virus. The immune system doesn't react to the vaccine itself. But when your cells start spitting out foreign objects, your immune system reacts in the same way as if you really had COVID. But since the look-alike isn't the actual virus, you don't get sick.

*developing the antibodies is just shorthand for the whole process.
   13433. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 23, 2021 at 02:55 PM (#6030194)
Thanks, Greg!
   13434. RJ in TO Posted: July 23, 2021 at 03:28 PM (#6030199)
   13435. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: July 23, 2021 at 04:39 PM (#6030203)
Today I read about some anti-vax guys showing up at a breast cancer clinic to protest its mask policy, and I also got an email from the Leukemia and Lymphoma Society announcing this:

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma patients are less likely to have detectable antibodies. The percentage of patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma who were seronegative following vaccination ranged from 21% to 56%. This includes patients with diffuse large B cell, mantle cell, marginal zone and follicular lymphomas, as well as Waldenstrom’s macroglobulinemia. In contrast, just one of 64 Hodgkin lymphoma patients was seronegative. Many of these patients were treated with anti-CD20 antibodies such as rituximab, which eliminates B-cells that make antibodies.

Among leukemia patients, those with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) are most likely to be seronegative. More than one-third (36%) of patients with CLL, the most common leukemia in U.S. adults, were seronegative after vaccination. Nearly three in 10 of them had no cancer therapy in the past two years, showing that the disease itself may impair the B cell function needed to make antibodies to vaccines.


For blood cancer patients the vaccines are apparently safe, but not always effective.
   13436. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 23, 2021 at 06:39 PM (#6030212)
According to the vax denialists, covid deaths are "surging" in the most highly vaccinated countries in the world (here meaning Israel and the UK), so vaccines are useless. Except that deaths are surging more already right here in states that are lagging in vaccination, despite the US being behind these other countries in terms of exposure to delta.

last 7-day average deaths per million population, reported:
Israel: 0.2
UK: 0.9

Kansas: 2.0
Mississippi: 2.0
Nevada: 2.5
Arkansas: 2.5
Louisiana: 2.5
Florida: 2.5
   13437. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 23, 2021 at 07:32 PM (#6030217)
Florida had been averaging 34 reported deaths per day, reported 86 yesterday and 148 today. Their vax rate is not as bad as some of the other Southern states, but still, only 80% of 65+ are fully vaccinated.
   13438. Tony S Posted: July 23, 2021 at 08:28 PM (#6030224)
In other forums I visit, there's A LOT of kvetching about masks, and comparatively little concern about catching delta. This seems... backwards. Masks are a pain, but I'll take temporary inconvenience over possible permanent disability any day. Just seems like a strange hill to die on.

A question that came up over dinner with a friend tonight (we ate outdoors): What is the spread rate of the common cold? It's usually mild and routine, and we all get it, so it's not something that's tracked to my knowledge. If pre-Covid you lived your life as normal, went to the office, ate at restaurants, attended a few events, and got, say, one common cold a year, is that what you can expect with Covid? (In frequency, not severity.) Is Covid easier or harder to catch than a regular cold? Neither of us knew. Has anyone studied this?
   13439. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 23, 2021 at 08:48 PM (#6030229)
This site says R0 for common cold is 2-3, which is similar to alpha/beta covid I think. Delta is 5-7.

edit: I also read that the average american gets 3 or so colds per year. I know I averaged more than 1 when doing normal interacting with people. Pretty sure most people do as well, based on just noticing when people seem a little under the weather. I don't think I have averaged 3 per year, but I've certainly had that many and maybe more in a year especially for those years when I was interacting with a lot of different people (not recently, even before covid).
   13440. baxter Posted: July 24, 2021 at 01:08 AM (#6030239)
13427 AuntBea

No sarcasm intended; I do not understand these 2 sentences:

In the UK, half the people that are known to have been infected with delta and died were fully vaccinated, according to the latest data. With 95% of seniors fully vaccinated, that implies incredible success.

Why is half died good? It sounds bad to me, as if the vaccine is not working?

Apologize if the question sounds dumb, but there you have it.

thanks.
   13441. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 24, 2021 at 06:17 AM (#6030241)
Yes, sorry maybe not so clear, but we discussed this above.

Close to 90% of people over 50 are fully vaccinated in the UK, and over 95% of people over 65. So, the two groups--vaccinated and non--are very different in size. So, if you have the same number dead in each group, the chance of dying from the vaccinated group is much less. The UK is only 60% or something vaccinated, but it is very age stratified--almost no children are vaccinated and almost all seniors are.

As an example, if you have 100 people dead in each group, but one group (vaccinated people over 50) has 1 million people, and the other group (unvaccinated people over 50) has 100,000 people, then the chances of dying from the vaccinated group is .01% and from the unvaccinated group is 0.1%, meaning being vaccinated is 10x better, and thus provides 90% protection against death.

(To be clear, very few people under 50 are dying from covid anyway, vaccinated or not, so if you have 200 people dead chances are very few of them are under 50 and can be ignored for the purposes of this simple calculation. This is exactly why the UK vaccinated the older people first, in the first place.)

The denialists who are comparing the two groups by total hospitalized or dead in each group are (in most cases) being intentionally misleading.

   13442. Tony S Posted: July 24, 2021 at 09:12 AM (#6030248)
Paving the way for boosters.


I don't know why our leadership keeps pandering to those elements who will NEVER get the vaccine. It's time to let them go, let them get infected and die if they want, and focus instead on fortifying the defenses for those of us who take this pandemic seriously. This is a good first step, if a little late.
   13443. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 24, 2021 at 09:58 AM (#6030251)
Interesting. I'd estimate I average one cold every three years or so.
   13444. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 24, 2021 at 02:28 PM (#6030266)
Article from the financial times on this apparent paradox of high hospitalizations and deaths among the vaccinated, which mostly just covers the same points we've been discussing.

Also, this:
“This is simply a reflection of vaccine uptake being very high among older people,” said Masters. “It’s perversely a marker of [a] successful rollout. If everyone [was] fully vaccinated, everyone who went to hospital or died would by definition be fully vaccinated.”

About two-thirds of people who die on UK roads are wearing a seatbelt, but this is a consequence of usage rates of nearly 99 per cent, Masters said. He added that the same logic applied to severe disease and death in highly vaccinated populations.
   13445. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 24, 2021 at 02:40 PM (#6030269)
And this brief twitter note from Natalie Dean (who has been bringing vaccine info to the masses since the pandemic began) affirms that when people talk about how effective a vaccine is against preventing serious illness or death, the protection against getting an infection is already built in. So when Israel says the Pfizer vaccine received in January remains 86% effective against serious illness, apparently they are talking about the combined effect of reduced infections and reduced chance of an infection leading to serious illness.

You can break down the VE against hospitalization into two components. The first is the reduction in infection. The second is the reduction in progression to severe disease given infection. But what we observe is the combined result, with VE against infection baked in.
   13446. baxter Posted: July 24, 2021 at 03:09 PM (#6030270)
13441, 13444

Thank you very much for the explanation and link.
   13447. Tony S Posted: July 24, 2021 at 03:50 PM (#6030271)
Dup comment
   13448. Tony S Posted: July 24, 2021 at 03:57 PM (#6030272)
13445 -- correct me if I'm misinterpreting it, but that actually doesn't sound so good. Does that mean that a fully vaxxed individual has a 14% chance of developing a serious infection,just going about his life?

Or is that as opposed to an unvaxxed person?

Because if it's the former, that's not much different from where we were pre-vax against the alpha.
   13449. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 24, 2021 at 04:18 PM (#6030273)
13445 -- correct me if I'm misinterpreting it, but that actually doesn't sound so good. Does that mean that a fully vaxxed individual has a 14% chance of developing a serious infection,just going about his life?


No. This part is easily and often misunderstood. It's easier to figure out when you realize how these numbers are calculated.

Let's say you have a control group of 1000 unvaccinated people, and over 6 months, 43 of them become seriously ill with COVID.

Then you have the study group of 1000 vaccinated people, and over the same interval, 6 become seriously ill with COVID.

The number of infected in group B is 14% as large as in group A, so the vaccine is deemed 86% effective.

The result would be the same if 430 in the first group became seriously ill with COVID, and 60 in the second group. The effectiveness percentage gives you no information about the absolute odds of getting seriously ill with the disease.

At least, that's my understanding. Folks will correct me if I am misinformed.
   13450. Tony S Posted: July 24, 2021 at 04:24 PM (#6030274)

OK, so it's 14% the risk of an unvaxxed person, not 14% risk generally. Much Much Better.
   13451. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 24, 2021 at 04:28 PM (#6030275)
Right--it's extra protection versus what an unvaccinated person has. So, roughly speaking, if an unvaccinated person has a 1/100 chance of contracting a serious case going about life (maybe not far off for my age group--seniors would be significantly higher), than a vaccinated person has a 1/715 chance.

The worldometer numbers for Florida were revised down to "just" 52 yesterday. 52 more today as well, so Florida is at about 1.9 deaths per million per day over the last week, not 2.5 after all. Makes sense that Mississippi and Louisiana would be worse off as well, since those two are among the very least vaccinated states while Florida is I think only slightly below average. Cases in Florida show no signs of slowing down yet, and the 7-day average is at the highest it's been since late January.
   13452. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 24, 2021 at 05:10 PM (#6030276)
Cases down significantly over last week yet again in the UK. Now there is a very good chance they will top out in deaths without hitting a high average daily number. For now looks like a major vaccine success. Still have the potential effects of freedom day to worry about.
   13453. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 24, 2021 at 05:34 PM (#6030278)
Cases have also soared in the Netherlands and are seemingly well on their way back down already, after just 3 weeks. Since deaths lag and they are heavily vaccinated among seniors, we haven't seen any uptick in deaths yet. Spain is similar. France doesn't seem quite as well vaccinated, and cases are just starting to soar right now.
   13454. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 25, 2021 at 11:25 AM (#6030314)
Delta became the most common variant in NYC the week ending 6/12, with more than half the cases by the week ending 6/19. Cases started going back up the week after that.

That pattern seems to be fairly common for a lot of states, including the ones in the South. The difference seems to be that the week-per-week multiplier is a little lower in NYC, maybe because of better social distancing or higher vaccination percentage, or both, and that NYC was at a much lower level of cases when delta first became predominant, so was starting from a lower baseline. Right now 1/10,000 people were testing positive in NYC per day. In Arkansas and Florida it was 5 times higher. The real numbers could be much higher still, as NYC positive test percentage was much lower than Florida (a little over 2%, versus 9%).

We'll see where delta tops out in each state. Even for cases (let along hospitalizations/deaths) it seems likely that it will be quite dependent on vaccinations and social behavior. Plenty of European and Asian countries seem to have crested from delta now, but I don't think any US ones have. If the same pattern held for the UK, that means they got it about a month earlier than the US, but started from a slightly higher level of cases per capita than NYC, but lower than places like Florida and Arkansas. Netherlands maybe got it a week after the UK and are already well over the peak.
   13455. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 25, 2021 at 12:40 PM (#6030318)

I've been riding the train again pretty regularly in NY over the past couple of months (not the subway, but Metro North / LIRR). Definitely saw mask usage declining over that time period with almost zero enforcement. But it seems to have picked back up over the past week. They even had MTA workers handing out masks to those who didn't have them when I boarded the train at Penn Station on Thursday.
   13456. 57i66135, patella gourmand Posted: July 25, 2021 at 12:41 PM (#6030319)
A conservative radio host in Tennessee who was openly skeptical about COVID-19 vaccines has been hospitalized and is now in critical care with the disease. Phil Valentine, who hosts a show on Nashville’s WWTN-FM, was diagnosed with the coronavirus and is now “in very serious condition” as he battles pneumonia, his family said in a statement posted to the radio station’s Twitter account
...
Shortly after he was diagnosed, Valentine was very cavalier about the diagnosis, writing on Facebook that there “are some very effective alternatives to the vaccine” and saying he was doing his “patriotic duty for natural herd immunity.”
...
[the radio host’s brother, Mark Valentine] also spoke to WWTN-FM about his brother’s condition. “First of all, he’s regretful that he wasn’t a more vocal advocate of the vaccination,” Mark Valentine said of his brother. “For those listening, I know if he were able to tell you this, he would tell you, ‘Go get vaccinated. Quit worrying about the politics. Quit worrying about all the conspiracy theories.’”


   13457. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: July 25, 2021 at 01:52 PM (#6030325)
   13458. Lassus Posted: July 25, 2021 at 07:01 PM (#6030345)
I'm having an idiot discussion with someone about COVID and trying to decide if I'm the idiot.

If 10% of the US has contracted COVID, and the mortality rate is currently 1.8 percent, is it correct for one person to say they have a 1.8 in 1000 chance of death from COVID? I think that's dumb, because it is an incorrect use of statistics.

Am I dumb, or are they dumb?
   13459. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 25, 2021 at 07:10 PM (#6030347)
If those were true, I guess you could say that was the chance of an "average" american having died by Covid by now. Doesn't say what the chance of an average person dying of it going forward is, let alone any particular person who almost certainly isn't average for these purposes.

Another problem is that realistically 30% or more has gotten covid and the chance of dying once you got it (IFR) was likely much less than 1.8%. Also probably 2.25 or so out of 1000 have died of it by now (excess deaths), maybe more if you include pull forward effect.

IFR in the US (for the US age curve overall) seems to have been over 1% very early in NYC, but seems to have fallen quite a bit even before the vaccine came around, maybe down to as low as 0.5%. With vaccines it is now much lower than that.

   13460. Lassus Posted: July 25, 2021 at 07:30 PM (#6030349)
He's using it as an anti-vax stat. Get first shot, don't get second shot, stop being so mean to the unvaccinated, etc.
   13461. Tony S Posted: July 25, 2021 at 08:01 PM (#6030351)
stop being so mean to the unvaccinated


The (willfully) unvaccinated are the main reason this pandemic has dragged on so long. They deserve much worse than people being mean to them. The other guy can pound sand.

“patriotic duty for natural herd immunity.”


Mr. Valentine has laid out the anti-vaxxers' agenda here. You don't get to "natural" herd immunity without lots and lots of unnecessary deaths, especially when there's a vaccine available. But I'm sure he considers himself a staunch "pro-lifer".
   13462. Lassus Posted: July 25, 2021 at 08:09 PM (#6030352)
He use "what about my body my choice" a lot, too.

I guess, though, perhaps the antu-statistical argument I had in mind isn't so sound, however.
   13463. Tony S Posted: July 25, 2021 at 08:13 PM (#6030353)
He use "what about my body my choice" a lot, too.


Does he support the right of smokers to exhale in people's faces, too?

You can also ask him if 270 flights a day crashed, would he get on a plane? (There are about 150,000 commercial flights a day, and 0.0018 times that -- his number -- is 270).
   13464. RJ in TO Posted: July 25, 2021 at 10:06 PM (#6030356)
He use "what about my body my choice" a lot, too.
See, the problem here is that you're trying to have a discussion with an #######.
   13465. Lassus Posted: July 25, 2021 at 10:44 PM (#6030362)
Well, yeah.
   13466. 57i66135, patella gourmand Posted: July 25, 2021 at 10:54 PM (#6030366)
I'm having an idiot discussion with someone about COVID and trying to decide if I'm the idiot.

If 10% of the US has contracted COVID, and the mortality rate is currently 1.8 percent, is it correct for one person to say they have a 1.8 in 1000 chance of death from COVID? I think that's dumb, because it is an incorrect use of statistics.

Am I dumb, or are they dumb?

"you can sit here arguing with me about statistics that neither of us understand, or you can get your ####### shot and we'll go back to talking about baseball"
   13467. 57i66135, patella gourmand Posted: July 25, 2021 at 11:04 PM (#6030368)
"there's a 2% chance that if you get covid, your dick will rot and fall off."

"really?"

"no, but you will die."

"oh, that's fine then."
   13468. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 26, 2021 at 02:28 AM (#6030377)
Yeah, a 2% chance of dying (plus an X% chance of having to go into the ICU without dying, a Y% of permanent loss of lung capacity and shortened lifespan, a Z% chance of infecting and seriously hurting or killing someone else that you care about, etc.) is actually . . . kind of scary, compared to the other risks we habitually avoid. At least, when you consider that pretty much the entirety of the upside of not getting the shot is "scary nurse not make owwy in my arm". Vaccination is even free in most countries.
   13469. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 26, 2021 at 12:30 PM (#6030437)

Yes, the question I always ask people who are cavalier about COVID due to the death rate being "only 0.5%" is whether they would go to a restaurant where 1 out of every 200 regular diners died of food poisoning. Or would they go to an amusement park where 1 out of every 200 visitors died in an accident? In reality, the answer is no because the government would shut those places down and everyone would ask why they hadn't done it sooner.

But when it comes to the government taking action to prevent your death by disease, people just get nutty.
   13470. Tony S Posted: July 26, 2021 at 12:56 PM (#6030444)
Another day of decline in the UK.

This is good news -- it implies the delta burns through quickly. We might still be a few days away from seeing any Freedom Day effects -- but if the trendlines continue downward, that would be excellent news.
   13471. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 26, 2021 at 02:44 PM (#6030474)
India's case decline has stagnated. Obviously every place is quite different, but that pattern is more or less consistent with delta being so contagious that it will eventually find its way to almost everyone (as multiple experts are predicting), rather than burning out while leaving large swaths untouched, like the earlier variants.

If you haven't gotten vaccinated yet, consider doing so now.
   13472. Tony S Posted: July 26, 2021 at 05:08 PM (#6030534)
No shirt, no shoes, no vax, no service.

San Francisco establishments (wisely) try to stay ahead of a shutdown.

If you're planning to visit the city this weekend, you might want to carry your vaccination card as many bars are now requiring to see proof of immunization.


   13473. Tony S Posted: July 27, 2021 at 08:37 AM (#6030670)
UK cases are receding, but Israel's are not.

Another data point suggesting that booster shots might be in order.
   13474. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: July 27, 2021 at 12:17 PM (#6030710)
Ugh.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will recommend on Tuesday that vaccinated Americans wear masks indoors in certain circumstances, citing the highly transmissible delta variant.

Top health officials, who were debating the new masking guidance on Monday afternoon, said the game-changer was new data showing that vaccinated individuals infected with the delta variant carry the same viral load as unvaccinated individuals who are infected, according to three people familiar with the data. Vaccinated people are unlikely to become severely ill, but the new data raises questions about how easily they can transmit the disease, said the three individuals. Such transmission was not believed to happen in any significant way with earlier variants.


Link.
   13475. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 27, 2021 at 04:51 PM (#6030762)
Israel seemed to get delta later than the UK, maybe by 2 weeks or more. Give it a week or two. UK also topped out at .8 recorded cases per thousand people (7-day average). Israel is still only around 0.15. So it's still well too early to tell whether it will be worse for them. My guess is no.

Netherlands' wave seem to go by even quicker, but they also hit .6 or so per thousand (recorded), also well above where Israel is now. Spain is at its peak now, just below that.

Israel's positive test percentage is also still very low--around 2%--implying that their actual numbers for them are still even further below some of these other places.
   13476. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 27, 2021 at 04:57 PM (#6030766)
Let's contrast that to Louisiana, one of the least vaccinated states. They may hit an all-time high in cases (7-day average) this week, and are already pretty much at where the UK was in recorded cases per thousand. No end of the delta wave currently in sight. Arkansas is not that far behind in recorded cases.

Positive test percentage in Louisiana is supposedly over 15% right now. Over 20% in Arkansas.
   13477. Tony S Posted: July 28, 2021 at 10:27 AM (#6030872)
A third dose of Pfizer seems to make a difference.

Given that the vaccine production and distribution infrastructure is largely in place now, hopefully this means those of us who want one can get one quickly.

It's time to stop stroking the anti-vaxxers with "outreach" that will never work, and focus instead on those of us who prefer not to get sick.
   13478. 57i66135, patella gourmand Posted: July 28, 2021 at 01:14 PM (#6030947)
Washington Football Team head coach Ron Rivera is struggling to convince his players to get the COVID vaccine, and he’s “beyond frustrated” by it because it affects him personally. Rivera was diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma in August 2020
“I’m truly frustrated, I’m beyond frustrated,” said Rivera, who was diagnosed with cancer in August, but is now cancer-free. “… I’m immune-deficient, OK? So with this new variant, who knows?

“So, when I’m in a group and the group’s not vaccinated or there’s a mixture, I put the mask on, and I do that for health reasons because nobody really knows. I have to do that. And I just wish and I hope that our guys can understand that.”
   13479. Greg Pope Posted: July 28, 2021 at 05:47 PM (#6031062)
Given that the vaccine production and distribution infrastructure is largely in place now, hopefully this means those of us who want one can get one quickly.

Are there any rules/guidelines in place for getting a third shot? I know that there's been no official announcement or EUA. I got both Pfizer shots in March. If I walk into a Walgreens now and ask for a vaccine shot, will they give me one? Or will they tell me that I've already had 2 and that a booster shot isn't approved?
   13480. Tony S Posted: July 28, 2021 at 06:37 PM (#6031086)
Are there any rules/guidelines in place for getting a third shot? I know that there's been no official announcement or EUA. I got both Pfizer shots in March. If I walk into a Walgreens now and ask for a vaccine shot, will they give me one? Or will they tell me that I've already had 2 and that a booster shot isn't approved?


Same questions I have. I think tracking is done at the state level, with varying degrees of commitment and accuracy.

I had Moderna (also in March), so I'd have another extra question there. Back in the spring they made sure you got two shots of the same vaccine. Don't know if that's changed.

My guess is you can probably walk in and get the third shot if you want it. There are a lot of vaccines available. The potential roadblock would be your insurance coverage.

Me, I'm going to wait till some more research emerges, especially regarding vaccine compatibility. But I'm VERY tempted.
   13481. Tony S Posted: July 29, 2021 at 09:29 AM (#6031165)
We are one effed-up country.

“I work closely with our pharmacists who are leading our vaccine efforts through our organization,” Dr. Priscilla Frase, hospitalist and chief medical information officer at Ozarks Healthcare, said in a video the health care facility posted to Facebook. “One of them told me the other day that they have had several people who have come in to get vaccinated who have kind of tried to disguise their appearance. They even went so far as to say, ‘Please, please, please, don’t let anybody know that I got this vaccine. I don’t want my friends to know. I don’t want to get COVID. I want to get the vaccine.’ "



Our best course of action is probably to protect ourselves as much as possible, and let antiva self-immolate.

   13482. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 09:30 AM (#6031166)
The Israel data showing significantly reduced effectiveness of the vaccine over time may be seriously flawed. Jury is still out. (The long and short of it is the delta virus first took hold in Israel in highly vaccinated areas skewing the numbers to show a higher fraction of vaccinated people getting infected. The cosmopolitan places where the virus usually first enters a country are also the most vaccinated.)

There still seems to be some waning effectiveness over time, but it could be much less dramatic than was originally indicated by the Israel data.
   13483. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: July 29, 2021 at 10:14 AM (#6031174)
Israel is concerned enough about waning effectiveness that today they announced people 60+ who got their shots 5+ months ago can get a third shot.
   13484. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: July 29, 2021 at 12:05 PM (#6031197)
How exactly do they know that someone has the "delta variant" and not "original recipe" COVID?
   13485. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 12:15 PM (#6031199)
Positive samples are genome sequenced. Not all samples, but hopefully a representative number.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/pandemic-data-initiative/news/demystifying-the-delta-variant-with-data
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data-variants.page

   13486. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 01:38 PM (#6031234)
India's new case numbers have basically been flat for 3 weeks now at around 40k per day. In reality it's probably 10x-20x that per day. Definitely not herd immunity yet.
   13487. Greg Pope Posted: July 29, 2021 at 01:53 PM (#6031244)
There still seems to be some waning effectiveness over time, but it could be much less dramatic than was originally indicated by the Israel data.

Also, it seems the the effectiveness that they're testing for is the presence of antibodies. Which we would expect to fade over time but the T-cells and B-cells should still be providing strong protection. They make new antibodies if you get reinfected, right?
   13488. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 29, 2021 at 01:56 PM (#6031246)
No, as I understand it they are just looking at the population of the newly infected and comparing that to the expectation based on whether people are vaccinated or not. They aren't basing it on testable antibodies.
   13489. SoSH U at work Posted: July 30, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6031629)
My San Francisco-based, vaccinated son just tested positive. He'd been feeling kinda lousy this week.
   13490. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 02:30 PM (#6031647)
I guess the latest from the denialists is that the vaccines don't prevent serious illness or death, it's just that the delta variant is much less virulent?!

This one makes even less sense than the others, doesn't work for places like India that are not vaccinated much (still same percentage of reported cases resulting in deaths over each wave) and doesn't work unless you average out two different sets of people, the vaccinated and the unvaccinated in places like the US/UK. We know vaccinated people are dying at a far lower rate.
   13491. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 30, 2021 at 02:33 PM (#6031649)
This Washington Post article is extremely troubling.

Vaccination coverage is higher than average in Massachusetts, with nearly 70 percent of residents fully vaccinated.


The article then focuses on an outbreak (or series of outbreaks) in Provincetown in Cape Cod.

About three-quarters of cases occurred in people who were fully vaccinated, and that group had received vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson.


The scientists, along with officials at the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, reported that 79 percent of vaccinated breakthrough infections were symptomatic. Four of five people who were hospitalized were fully vaccinated.


I'm not an epidemiologist, but I'm pretty good at math. And - small-sample-size caveats granted - I don't see how those numbers don't translate to, "vaccines didn't do jack #### there".
   13492. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 03:03 PM (#6031663)
See this.

Also,
A new study shows the Delta Covid-19 variant produced similar amounts of virus in vaccinated and unvaccinated people if they get infected 
. Self-selected people, mostly symptomatic, got themselves tested. Of these people, the ones who tested positive had similar amounts of the virus.
   13493. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 30, 2021 at 03:12 PM (#6031668)
See this.


Yeah, I saw that. And what the Provincetown numbers say is that in a state with a 70% vaccination rate, 75% of the COVID cases were vaccinated. That's mathematically inconsistent with "less likely to contract it".

Maybe 95% of the folks in Provincetown are vaccinated. But that's an assumption based on nothing reported with that data.

And 75% of all cases, 80% of hospitalizations is completely at odds with "virtually eliminates the risk of hospitalization or death" - granting entirely that we're talking about 5 hospitalizations total.

I am fully vaccinated and happily so and have been behaving as if the pandemic were essentially over for me personally since the CDC said "vaccinated folks don't have to wear masks". And this data is giving me extremely serious second thoughts about that.
   13494. Tony S Posted: July 30, 2021 at 03:15 PM (#6031670)

The Delta data is all over the place. I'm back to hermit mode until we get some more clear conclusions.
   13495. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 03:18 PM (#6031672)
Self-selected people got tested, and anyway adults traveling to Provincetown for vacation (mostly gay male adults) are likely vaccinated at much higher rates than the average adult in the state.

Also, these were in general people who were subjected to a heavy dosage of virus, where you might expect vaccination to be less helpful:

Persons with COVID-19 reported attending densely packed indoor and outdoor events at venues that included bars, restaurants, guest houses, and rental homes. On July 3, MA DPH had reported a 14-day average COVID-19 incidence of zero cases per 100,000 persons per day in residents of the town in Barnstable County
   13496. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 30, 2021 at 03:24 PM (#6031674)
adults traveling to Provincetown for vacation (mostly gay male adults) are likely vaccinated at much higher rates than the average adult in the state.

Also, these were in general people who were subjected to a heavy dosage of virus:


I hope you're right about all of that. Really, I do. My wife and I have plans to go visit my 86-year-old mother with congestive heart failure and my wife's 77-year-old father currently undergoing chemo (and her relatively healthy 75-year-old mother) next month. And I want to be sure that trip is as safe as possible for everyone involved.
   13497. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 03:30 PM (#6031677)
We have natural case studies, like the UK, which seems to be topping out at under 100 deaths a day despite being hit very hard by the delta virus in cases. That wouldn't be possible if the vaccine did little. Same for other places like the Netherlands, Spain, and Portugal.

Anyway, I personally don't see a good reason to go any place indoors with a bunch of people unnecessarily until this wave passes by us. Shouldn't take longer than 1-2 months. There's a happy hour for my work in 2 weeks that I will be skipping, even though it is probably outdoors.
   13498. Tony S Posted: July 30, 2021 at 03:32 PM (#6031678)
I have a friend in Rehoboth this weekend (similar to P-Town, but in Delaware). James Surowiecki posits that Provincetown is essentially cruise-ship conditions. Reho is about the same. So the data there might be a bit skewed. Still, it's unsettling.



Anyway, I personally don't see a good reason to go any place indoors with a bunch of people unnecessarily until this wave passes by us. Shouldn't take longer than 1-2 months. There's a happy hour for my work in 2 weeks that I will be skipping, even though it is probably outdoors.


I was supposed to take a trip to Colorado today. I postponed it (earlier this week) to September. And maybe beyond. A crowded airport is the last place I want to be.
   13499. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 30, 2021 at 03:43 PM (#6031681)
I have a friend in Rehoboth this weekend (similar to P-Town, but in Delaware). James Surowiecki posits that Provincetown is essentially cruise-ship conditions. Reho is about the same. So the data there might be a bit skewed. Still, it's unsettling.


I've been to Rehobeth. And lived a few years in Lakeview (aka Boys' Town) in Chicago. So, okay, if that's the conditions were talking about with a population that was 95% vaccinated - okay, fair enough; that's reassuring. I'll withhold judgment - while understanding the CDC's change in masking guidance.

A crowded airport is the last place I want to be.


At least it's a driving trip for us, so we have a bit more control there. Although her parents are a two-day drive away so it does add the need to stay in hotels in random towns that we know nothing about. (And the demographics of my in-laws' hometown also makes me think they probably have a pretty low overall vaccination rate.)

We'll see. Hopefully the data will start to settle down a bit.
   13500. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 30, 2021 at 04:26 PM (#6031689)
Yeah, daily cases in the UK/Spain/Netherlands topped out at similar levels to prior peaks, but deaths were less than 1/10 of prior waves. So I’m not that worried. Still trying to be cautious but I’ve been going to the office a couple days a week, and I have vacation plans in 3 weeks that I don’t plan to cancel unless new travel restrictions get imposed.
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