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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 14053 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   13501. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 04:34 PM (#6031690)
Louisiana is at an all-time high for cases (7-day average). Among the least vaccinated states as well (34% fully vaccinated). Others: Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Wyoming, Idaho.
   13502. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 06:50 PM (#6031776)
If the new CDC summary paper is right, we are really lucky we got vaccines prior to delta showing up, because they think it is highly, highly infectious and maybe more deadly. If correct, that explains India's apparent massive jump in infections and deaths over 2 months, and also explains how delta burns through each new place in a matter of a few to several weeks only. In communities without a high percentage vaccinated it's going to be very difficult for people to hide from it.

Those curious about Delta should read the last few pages. Bullet point summary:

Summary
▪ Delta is different from previous strains
– Highly contagious
– Likely more severe
– Breakthrough infections may be as transmissible as unvaccinated cases
▪ Vaccines prevent >90% of severe disease, but may be less effective at preventing
infection or transmission
– Therefore, more breakthrough and more community spread despite
vaccination
▪ NPIs are essential to prevent continued spread with current vaccine coverage
   13503. Tony S Posted: July 30, 2021 at 07:53 PM (#6031800)
Foreign Policy article on boosters.

All this is why Israel is starting a third round of national vaccination and why Pfizer wants the CDC and FDA to approve the same for the United States. According to data Pfizer presented to stock shareholders recently, the company estimated that a third booster shot had the potential to increase neutralization of the delta variant by up to a hundredfold, compared with before the third dose.

It also appears that the United States may have blundered by setting the time interval between the first two doses at 21 days—a decision made by the CDC and FDA under the Trump administration. For reasons having less to do with science than with the rush to get as many British at least partially protected as rapidly as possible, Boris Johnson’s government chose a far longer time interval between doses—months. And that may explain why the delta variant’s dire impact seems to be reversing in the U.K., with daily incidence of new cases dropping rapidly. Plotkin, the vaccine inventor, says longer times between jabs—perhaps six months—give the immune system time to settle into its lulled memory status before getting another jolt of fake infection (which, after all, is what a vaccine is), prompting the manufacture of neutralizing antibodies. That length-of-interval issue has arisen with other vaccines, he says, consistently showing months, not days, are required between doses.


I think "blundered" is way too strong a word (it was a reasonable decision at the time), but there's a possible explanation as to why the delta is now declining rapidly in the UK (and doesn't guarantee a similar performance in the US).
   13504. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 30, 2021 at 08:03 PM (#6031805)
Quite the speculation there. Once Israel hits the same number of cases per thousand without reversing as the UK has, we can talk about whether the UK has had any advantage. I have serious doubts about that. Worth noting again that Israel tests much more comprehensively than most places, so it's likely their case multiplier (actual v reported) is lower than the UK, so they'd have to hit a higher number per thousand to reach the same level as the UK.

The UK topped out at 0.7 cases (7 day average) per thousand population. Israel is currently at 0.2 cases (7 day average) per thousand population.

Israel has had 38 recorded deaths this entire wave. The UK, with 7 times the population, has already had at least 1500.
   13505. RJ in TO Posted: July 30, 2021 at 08:16 PM (#6031814)
I think "blundered" is way too strong a word (it was a reasonable decision at the time), but there's a possible explanation as to why the delta is now declining rapidly in the UK (and doesn't guarantee a similar performance in the US).
Canada generally was looking at a two to three month gap between doses, due to a deliberate decision to get as many people their first doses as possible. It would be nice were it to turn out that there was some advantage to this.

We're starting to see case numbers climb again in Canada, although they're still low compared to many other nations. We'll see how long that lasts, with Alberta's leadership basically deciding they don't give a #### and removing all remaining COVID-19 protocols despite the province lagging in vaccinations and test positivity rates climbing.
   13506. base ball chick Posted: July 30, 2021 at 10:57 PM (#6031869)
anyone with an update on what percent of people who had covid who didn't die from it are long haulers? vaccinated vs non-vaccinated?

I am also thinking of how to get me and Husband a 3rd shot
   13507. bunyon Posted: July 30, 2021 at 11:57 PM (#6031875)
BBC, Tx may be keeping better records but I know someone who got j&j who went back a few months later for Pfizer. No one asked any questions. She just walked in and got it.

If you got Pfizer or moderna it’s not clear it would be worth it. If you got j&j, it probably is.
   13508. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 31, 2021 at 03:48 AM (#6031881)
BBC, Tx may be keeping better records but I know someone who got j&j who went back a few months later for Pfizer. No one asked any questions. She just walked in and got it.


What do you mean "No one asked any questions?"

When I originally got vaccinated in NY, they definitely asked me whether I had already been vaccinated. Did your friend not get asked that question, or did they lie and nobody checked the records to see if it was true?

I got J&J, haven't tried to get a booster but I have international travel plans in 3 weeks so have thought about it.
   13509. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 31, 2021 at 05:13 PM (#6031935)
Florida will hit an all-time high in 7-day average cases reported tomorrow (assuming they do a daily report, instead of waiting until Wednesday as they have been doing).

Assuming a 2-week delay, they are reporting close to 1% of cases as deaths. Assuming a 3-week delay, it's not that far from 2%. That means there's a very good chance this wave will rival the earlier ones for intensity in deaths. Probably not overall deaths though, or length of wave, as delta will likely burn through quickly. Or at least, we hope.
   13510. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: July 31, 2021 at 09:21 PM (#6031964)
Apple has yanked Unjected, an app that bills itself as “a safe space for the unvaccinated to come together uncensored through business, friendship, or love,” from the App Store. The company said that Unjected violated its covid-19 policies and tried to get around the App Store review process, which in itself is against Apple guidelines.
Unjected covers more than just love, though. It even allows people to find businesses and services that agree with its users’ views against covid-19 vaccines.

“So that if a business is looking for an unvaccinated employee they can post that listing there or if someone is looking for an unvaccinated doctor they can find them on the app,” Shelby Thomson, one of the app’s co-founders, told Yahoo in June.
link
   13511. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: July 31, 2021 at 10:47 PM (#6031978)
13509. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 31, 2021 at 05:13 PM (#6031935)

Assuming a 2-week delay, they are reporting close to 1% of cases as deaths. Assuming a 3-week delay, it's not that far from 2%. That means there's a very good chance this wave will rival the earlier ones for intensity in deaths. Probably not overall deaths though, or length of wave, as delta will likely burn through quickly. Or at least, we hope.


So does that mean Delta is more deadly than the original strain(s) that came through? Some not insignificant number of positives appear to be vaccinated, but they represent a much smaller percentage of the deaths. If we were getting 1-2% with the first go round, it would seem to be 2-4% in the unvaccinated at this point.
   13512. bunyon Posted: July 31, 2021 at 11:35 PM (#6031986)
Dave, I don’t know. They signed up on the Walgreens site. Wouldn’t surprise me if they lied. Wouldn’t surprise me if they weren’t asked. 80K doses are about to expire in Arkansas and I’d guess similar stories will start happening elsewhere. Would be great to ship those to places that are short but better a third Jan for some than expiration
   13513. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: August 01, 2021 at 12:39 AM (#6031988)
What do you mean "No one asked any questions?"

When I originally got vaccinated in NY, they definitely asked me whether I had already been vaccinated. Did your friend not get asked that question, or did they lie and nobody checked the records to see if it was true?

I got J&J, haven't tried to get a booster but I have international travel plans in 3 weeks so have thought about it.


I got the J&J as soon as I could earlier this year since I was traveling to Florida for work every other week for a couple of months. Was a scary time.

Once delta reared its ugly head I decided to get an mRNA vaccine and was able to get one with no issue at Walgreens. Am now double dosed with Pfizer plus a single half dose of J&J.

At Walgreens the form asked if I was already vaccinated and I said yes and then wrote “with J&J”. I don’t think the tech even bothered to read it so ymmv.
   13514. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 01, 2021 at 02:58 AM (#6031990)

Up through early June, the CFR of Florida’s cases had declined by half from the prior wave. This was mainly due to half as many cases in the highly vaccinated older age groups. Unfortunately they don’t publish the data anymore to run a similar analysis today, so we have to do the 2-3 week lag thing. Although if you’re doing that you might as well do it with the whole country’s cases and not just FL.
   13515. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 01, 2021 at 03:01 AM (#6031991)
Thanks 13512-13. I’m probably going to stick with my current level of protection for now. Other than the plane, I don’t expect to be very exposed during my trip as we’ll mostly be outdoors or in our hotel room. I’m probably taking more risk riding the train and going into the office in NY right now.
   13516. Tony S Posted: August 01, 2021 at 07:42 AM (#6031993)
80K doses are about to expire in Arkansas


Not that I've seen that here (I've seen it elsewhere), but this is why one shouldn't judge anyone who goes out and gets a third shot.
   13517. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 01, 2021 at 11:07 AM (#6031998)
So does that mean Delta is more deadly than the original strain(s) that came through? Some not insignificant number of positives appear to be vaccinated, but they represent a much smaller percentage of the deaths. If we were getting 1-2% with the first go round, it would seem to be 2-4% in the unvaccinated at this point.
I think it's very hard to say because due to the constantly evolving situation it's probably not the same types of people getting exposed to the virus and/or being tested in the same proportions as before. For example, there's quite a bit if evidence that vaccinated people are now getting tested less often than non-vaccinated people that have the same level of symptoms.

My point in making the statement above was more straightforward--if we continue to have the same number of deaths per cases that we see in Florida in the current wave, given a 2+ week delay between them, the death numbers are going to get uncomfortably high, at least for a brief period. That seems fairly likely at this point.
   13518. Snowboy Posted: August 01, 2021 at 01:48 PM (#6032007)
Other than the plane, I don’t expect to be very exposed during my trip as we’ll mostly be outdoors or in our hotel room. I’m probably taking more risk riding the train and going into the office in NY right now.


The plane air will be the cleanest air you breathe of the above, other than outdoors. They might seem like a transmission hotspot, with so many people in a small space, but their filtration systems will clean the air better than your hotel or office.
   13519. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 01, 2021 at 05:08 PM (#6032051)

Trying to be optimistic here and using the data that FL still makes available:

- FL's % of reported cases in the 65+ age group bottomed out at about 8% in late March through early May. It had been as high as 16% during the peak months (and 25% last March-April).
- I think it's safe to assume that nearly all cases were in the unvaccinated at that point so the fact that fewer vaccinated people are getting tested now really shouldn't affect the comparability of the data
- The CFR for those weeks was 0.7-0.8%
- Despite the massive increase in cases over the past 2 months, still only 8% of those cases have been in the 65+ category.
- So therefore the optimistic scenario is that the CFR for the recent increase in cases will hold at that level. That's still a lot of deaths if you have 15k cases per day. But not as bad as prior waves when they were averaging 170-180 reported deaths per day.

The pessimistic view:
- Delta may be more deadly than prior variants once you control for age so the CFR may be higher than 0.7-0.8%.
- In the most recent week, 10% of cases were in the 65+ age group. If that holds, again the overall CFR may be higher. Although maybe more of those were vaccinated people -- vaccinated seniors are more likely to show symptoms and get tested than vaccinated young people. And they're still pretty unlikely to die from it.
   13520. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 01, 2021 at 05:14 PM (#6032052)


The plane air will be the cleanest air you breathe of the above, other than outdoors. They might seem like a transmission hotspot, with so many people in a small space, but their filtration systems will clean the air better than your hotel or office.


Yeah, I'm not that worried about flying. I actually flew twice before getting vaccinated, and I think federal transportation is the one place they're still enforcing mask rules.
   13521. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 01, 2021 at 05:43 PM (#6032057)
I'm getting a higher historic CFR for Florida for those March-May weeks, about 1.05%.

Between March 20 and May 7, per worldometer, there were 258,236 cases. Between April 3 and May 21 (2-week delay) there were 2758 reported deaths. Between April 10 and May 28 (3-week delay) there were 2753 reported deaths.

7-day weekly average for Florida is already almost 16,000. Under your optimistic view, that's already the same 170 per day as reported in earlier waves. However, some of these cases have to be vaccinated people, so the IFR should go down even if 8% are over 65. I think an optimistic scenario is still below 170 per day, maybe as low as something like 100-120. We really don't know yet. We also don't know if the testing is more or less thorough than before, in the over 65 group.

Current CFR (2-week delay) is around 1%. 3-week delay it's much higher. Delta is supposed to hit faster, so maybe a shorter delay is appropriate now.

Under the pessimistic view, the biggest issue is we haven't seen the top of the case curve, and don't know how high it's going to get. Never mind CFR being slightly different!
   13522. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 01, 2021 at 09:00 PM (#6032080)
FYI, I’m not using an X-week delay for my CFR, I’m using their case line data files that list all 2+ million cases and tying the specific deaths to specific cases. So I’m confident my numbers are accurate.

The problem is the last data file they published was on June 3. So I can’t do the same analysis for the most recent wave.

They don’t report deaths as quickly as they happen. So when they were reporting an average of 170-180 per day, the actual peak was like 230 per day. So if the peak is 170 this time around, they’ll probably max out at an average of 120-130 reported per day.

But yes you’re right about not knowing how many cases they’ll ultimately have. Either way we’re likely splitting hairs. The hospitalization trend shows that this wave is serious even if we’re not seeing as many deaths reported yet.
   13523. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 01, 2021 at 09:09 PM (#6032082)
So does that include every case listed as occurring between March [20] and May [7], and seeing how many of those particular people have so far died? What dates are you using, and how many cases were in that period? I'd be fascinated to know during what period the other 30% of deaths occurred in. Were they all from way earlier?
   13524. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 01, 2021 at 09:35 PM (#6032083)
I was looking at weekly cohorts, but yes it lists every case by date of reporting, along with their age, whether the person died and whether they were hospitalized. So here are the CFRs for the various weeks, as of the end of day on June 2:

Week ending - CFR
March 31 - 0.705%
April 7 - 0.768%
April 14 - 0.773%
April 21 - 0.733%
April 28 - 0.701% (probably not fully reported as of June 2)
May 5 - 0.632% (probably not fully reported as of June 2)

(I know these are weeks ending on a Wednesday -- that's just because June 2 was a Wednesday and I'm working back from there.)
   13525. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 01, 2021 at 09:44 PM (#6032086)
These numbers only work with the worldometer numbers if certain things happened, like massive amounts of people recorded as dying in Florida weeks to months after their reported illness date. Obviously that's possible, but it would have to have happened before these cases and not after. Are you sure every death is linked to a case? How many cases were reported during those 6 weeks?
   13526. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 01, 2021 at 10:00 PM (#6032088)
If you want to understand a typical 2-week reporting interval, here's the breakdown of the deaths that they reported between May 19 and June 2, and what weeks those people's case corresponds to*:

pre-3/10 79
3/17/2021 8
3/24/2021 9
3/31/2021 18
4/7/2021 25
4/14/2021 51
4/21/2021 76
4/28/2021 95
5/5/2021 115
5/12/2021 105
5/19/2021 46
5/26/2021 31
6/2/2021 7


These numbers only work with the worldometer numbers if certain things happened, like massive amounts of people recorded as dying in Florida weeks to months after their reported illness date. Obviously that's possible, but it would have to have happened before these cases and not after. Are you sure every death is linked to a case? How many cases were reported during those 6 weeks?


So to answer your question, yes, for any given case cohort, the deaths get reported over more like a 6-8 week period, not 2-3 weeks. And there's a small trickle that comes in even after 8 weeks, although those aren't enough to change the CFR. And they do report some deaths very quickly as well, so I think that means that in a time of rapidly rising cases the CFR may appear overstated if you use a 2-3 week lag. (Also, yes, the file has every death and every case and they are all accounted for (although I think it may not include non-FL resident cases/deaths, which are only about 2% of the total).

Anyway, since the CFR is usually pretty stable after 6-8 weeks I'm pretty confident that the April 14 cohort was fully reported -- or very close to it -- as of June 2, but the more recent cohorts probably weren't.

Basically, you can't just use a 2-week lag (that's the reason I wrote this script in the first place -- to better analyze the CFR during periods of changing case numbers. Florida was the only state where I found the data to do this). I don't know where Worldometers gets its data, so I can't comment on your numbers.

* The "case date" that FL uses is also not necessarily the date that the case was publicly reported -- I think it's the earlier of when the person got tested or when they first reported symptoms, even though the case doesn't get reported until a positive test comes back. So that can also cause a discrepancy with the simply 2-3 week lag.

(SORRY, I EDITED THIS POST LIKE 10 TIMES)
   13527. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 01, 2021 at 10:21 PM (#6032092)
Based on those number, 12% came in at least 9 to 10 weeks earlier, which would explain at least a third of the difference (meaning if the pattern continues, the CRF numbers you are citing are low by .1% at least). Another 15% came in more than 5 weeks earlier, so again there will be an additional chunk missing. I do see the CFR is likely to be a little less than 1.05%, based on a smoothing factor (i.e., deaths will be smoothed out over a longer period than cases, so case peaks even at the same CFR will not cause the same death peaks, and times of low cases will seem to imply higher CFR than they actually have, since case peaks are sending deaths their way), but it won't be as low as what is implied by your mumbers. It would be almost impossible for it to be the case that CFR in Florida has dropped that far, unless there has been a major change in how fast Florida reports deaths.

Worldometers gets its numbers from the daily reports put out by the Florida government.
   13528. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 01, 2021 at 10:31 PM (#6032096)
On the other hand, if we are just talking about reported deaths, any peak in cases will be smoothed out based on the above, so it wouldn't be at all surprising for the death peak to be quite a bit lower than the CFR. For example, at the last peak the effective CFR at the peaks for reported cases and deaths was around 1%, whereas the actual CFR must have been quite a bit higher, probably 1.5% or so. You are saying the same effect will happen here, such that if the actual CFR is (say, for the sake of argument) 0.9%, we might only see at the peak something far less, like 0.6%. I think that is fairly likely.
   13529. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 01, 2021 at 10:45 PM (#6032098)
Worldometers gets its numbers from the daily reports put out by the Florida government.

Florida's DOH moved to weekly reporting after June 3 (the same time they stopped publishing the data file I rely on). But I think they still report daily to the CDC, so Worldometers and the NYT probably get their daily Florida data from there.
   13530. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 01, 2021 at 10:55 PM (#6032099)
Oh I see. Yeah I'm not sure how they divide it by day, but weekly they conform the total deaths to the Florida report and I think cases as well, so I don't think that distinction matters for the purposes of this particular conversation.
   13531. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 01, 2021 at 11:04 PM (#6032100)

On the other hand, if we are just talking about reported deaths, any peak in cases will be smoothed out based on the above, so it wouldn't be at all surprising for the death peak to be quite a bit lower than the CFR. For example, at the last peak the effective CFR at the peaks for reported cases and deaths was around 1%, whereas the actual CFR must have been quite a bit higher, probably 1.5% or so. You are saying the same effect will happen here, such that if the actual CFR is (say, for the sake of argument) 0.9%, we might only see at the peak something far less, like 0.6%. I think that is fairly likely.


Yeah, for the cases in any given week, most of the deaths will be spread over a few weeks, and the reporting of most of those deaths will be spread over a couple of months, with a long tail after that. At the peak, they were probably averaging 220-230 deaths per day, but the 7-day average reported was only 170-180. You can see the number of actual deaths by day (not reported deaths by day) here.* Unfortunately they also stopped updating that site after June 2.

FYI, here's the CFR and mean patient age by month of case, based on the reporting as of June 2:

Mar 2020 6.28% 50
Apr 2020 6.45% 50
May 2020 5.35% 47
Jun 2020 1.95% 38
Jul 2020 2.23% 41
Aug 2020 2.50% 43
Sep 2020 2.17% 40
Oct 2020 1.56% 40
Nov 2020 1.30% 41
Dec 2020 1.46% 42
Jan 2021 1.42% 41
Feb 2021 1.20% 40
Mar 2021 0.87% 38
Apr 2021 0.74% 36

The CFR for April 2021 would probably be 0.8-0.9% when fully reported. You can see a very clear connection between the mean age and the CFR. You can also see a pretty big drop in the CFR from September to November 2020 that can't be explained by age. I have some thoughts on that which I can share tomorrow, but no real convincing explanation.

* Interesting side-note: The data files I have tell you whether a patient died, but not when -- they felt providing that level of detail would be a HIPAA violation because if you knew the date of death and the county, you might be able to tie it back to a specific individual. So they provide the county, case date, and *whether* they died, but not the date of death.
   13532. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: August 02, 2021 at 09:02 AM (#6032132)
Dredging up from 13324 from Eudoxus:

Does anyone know what today's changes in the UK COVID restrictions means for fully vaccinated US citizens traveling to the UK? I have a child starting university in the UK this fall, and I'd like to fly over with them, but that's not realistic if the "quarantine on arrival for 10 days" rule is still in place. I see that quarantining requirements are being removed for people vaccinated "under the UK vaccination programme", but I don't know what that means for someone vaccinated in the US with Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson&Johnson;.


From today, it looks like arrivals into the UK no longer need to quarantine if they're fully vaccinated from either the US or EU programs, so that would be good news for someone in your position (might want to check on J&J if that's your jab flavour, as I don't think that's in use in the UK). Note that for a lot of countries, including the US, travel to the UK is still not recommended, but that might change soon if their hospitalisation numbers start to follow their case numbers down.
   13533. Hot Wheeling American Posted: August 02, 2021 at 10:01 AM (#6032144)
Anyone familiar with covid-specific research on pregnant vaccinated women passing her antibodies to her child? Thinking specifically about a pregnant woman who received both Pfizer shots in April and delivered in June, and doesn't breastfeed. She and her handsome husband are being very careful with the baby, but thinking ahead to later in the year, wondering if traveling on a plane (to...Florida, gulp) could be in the cards. From the little I know, I think most/all antibodies passed on are gone after 5-6 months, so just thinking out loud this far out.
   13534. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 02, 2021 at 02:10 PM (#6032202)
From March:

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/03/study-shows-covid-19-vaccinated-mothers-pass-antibodies-to-newborns/

In the largest study of its kind to date, researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH), Brigham and Women’s Hospital and the Ragon Institute of MGH, MIT and Harvard have found the new mRNA COVID-19 vaccines to be highly effective in producing antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus in pregnant and lactating women. The study also demonstrated the vaccines confer protective immunity to newborns through breast milk and the placenta.

The study, published in the American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology (AJOG), looked at 131 women of reproductive age (84 pregnant, 31 lactating and 16 non-pregnant), all of whom received one of the two new mRNA vaccines: Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna. The vaccine-induced titers — or antibody levels — were equivalent in all three groups. Reassuringly, side effects after vaccination were rare and comparable across the study participants.
   13535. sanny manguillen Posted: August 02, 2021 at 02:43 PM (#6032218)
Per BB-Ref, four deaths from all causes of former major leaguers in July, a total of 23 since April 1. 98 deaths from all causes in 2018, 100 in 2019.

   13536. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: August 02, 2021 at 03:06 PM (#6032226)
This article is just ####### depressing on so many levels ...

While the most severely ill patients at Jackson Health go to the ICU, there are more patients with milder symptoms from COVID-19 in the medical surgical wing.

That’s where Hialeah resident Victor Suero was recovering from COVID-19 on a recent weekday, in a section of the hospital called South Wing Seven.

Suero, 34, was admitted to Jackson Memorial on July 21 with a 102.5-degree fever and complaining of fatigue. Suero said he had chosen not to take the vaccine.

“I’ve had every opportunity to get vaccinated,” he said.

Suero, who works as a utility lineman, chalked up his hesitance to get vaccinated as, “just a personal preference.”

Then he said he had not taken the vaccine because he just moved back to Miami from Lancaster, Pennsylvania, where transmission of the virus was lower. Suero said he was also concerned that the vaccine might have an adverse reaction with medication he is taking to heal an infection in his left leg, which is still recovering from an open fracture that he suffered in a motorcycle accident in October.

Suero said he was not wearing a helmet at the time of his motorcycle accident, and that he considers himself “very lucky” to have avoided a serious head injury.

He said his mother and sister, who are vaccinated, have been urging him to take the vaccine, but he hadn’t listened. Suero said he doesn’t fall for disinformation, and acknowledged that perhaps his political preferences and a feeling of youthful invincibility may have something to do with it.

“It’s not from a lack of having it from both sides because I’m conservative, but at the same time my mom and my sister are both fully vaccinated. So they’re always bugging me about it, too,” he said. “Obviously, I don’t believe that if I get the vaccination I’m going to grow a third leg. It’s just that I’m a healthy male. I don’t really have any problems. Even for what I just went through, for me, it just felt like a really bad cold just with a fever. I know there are people who have it a lot worse than I do. But it was just a calculated risk on my behalf that I felt I would rather live with the consequences of being without it.”

Link
   13537. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 02, 2021 at 03:59 PM (#6032236)

I mean, it's not exactly a shock that the guy who rides a motorcycle without a helmet also didn't get vaccinated. Maybe after the motorcycle accident and a hospital stay for COVID, he'll take fewer unnecessary risks going forward.
   13538. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: August 02, 2021 at 04:23 PM (#6032245)
Suero, who works as a utility lineman


I know I need a vaccination
But I don't like the pain
And if I'm jabbed my skeptic friends won't even say my name

And I fear you more than want you
And I'll take it another time
And the Hialeah lineman
Is not doing fiiiiiiine

My default assumption now for anyone refusing to get the vaccine for reasons other than an actual professional recommendation that they do not is: scared of needles.
   13539. EA Posted: August 02, 2021 at 04:56 PM (#6032254)
Long-time lurker on this thread...one bit of the vaccine hesitancy I feel is really coming through is that getting the vaccine requires some actual effort to do something that will be unpleasant. You have to schedule two separate appointments, and show up to both. You have to get pricked by a needle. You may feel ill not once, but twice. And you have to interact with the health care system (will I accidentally get charged for something). To NOT get the vaccine is also taking a risk, but you don't have to do anything to take that risk - just keep living your life.

It's not a rational weighing of the relative risks, but if you are prone to "path of least resistance" type thinking, it's definitely easier on any given day to defer getting the vaccine.
   13540. EA Posted: August 02, 2021 at 04:58 PM (#6032255)
(Also, this thread is amazing, and I appreciate all the people who comment here for their insights!)
   13541. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 02, 2021 at 05:13 PM (#6032257)
EA, I had a friend who felt the same way. A mutual friend of ours found a J&J one-shot vaccine clinic at a local brewery. He received a free draft as part of the clinic.

Doing a one-time shot seemed to be a big help in decreasing the hassle factor for him, and his wife. Free beer also helped.

   13542. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: August 02, 2021 at 07:31 PM (#6032324)
While vaccines appear to remain strong against the virus, new evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people with so-called breakthrough infections may be every bit as infectious as those yet to receive their shots, even if their own cases remain relatively mild. According to a report the agency released on Friday, the CDC’s latest findings were based on a July 4 COVID-19 outbreak in queer mecca Provincetown, Massachusetts, where among a cluster of 469 (with no deaths) at the time of study, an astonishing three-quarters of the infected had been fully vaccinated. As of July 31, the P-Town outbreak had ballooned to 965 cases.

   13543. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: August 02, 2021 at 07:43 PM (#6032331)
I was just informed by the House physician I have tested positive for #COVID19 even after being vaccinated.

I started having flu-like symptoms Saturday night and went to the doctor this morning.

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) August 2, 2021
I feel like I have a sinus infection and at present time I have mild symptoms.

I will be quarantining for ten days.

I am very glad I was vaccinated because without vaccination I am certain I would not feel as well as I do now.

My symptoms would be far worse.

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) August 2, 2021
   13544. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 02, 2021 at 09:08 PM (#6032379)
I'm very pleased that Graham gave props to the vaccine. But its probably too little, too late.
   13545. Tony S Posted: August 02, 2021 at 10:58 PM (#6032446)
Lindsey's always been pro-vaccine. He got his in December.
   13546. Tony S Posted: August 03, 2021 at 08:31 AM (#6032481)
I can't even.


Texas officials are now denying requests from hospitals for additional staffing as COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations surge across the state.

Hospitals in North Texas have requested 619 clinical support staff to help fill vacancies and emergency needs according to the North Central Texas Trauma Regional Advisory Council (NCTTRAC).



   13547. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 03, 2021 at 09:30 AM (#6032489)
death cult
   13548. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: August 03, 2021 at 09:59 AM (#6032493)
Long-time lurker on this thread...one bit of the vaccine hesitancy I feel is really coming through is that getting the vaccine requires some actual effort to do something that will be unpleasant. You have to schedule two separate appointments, and show up to both.


Perhaps I'm overestimating the extent to which this is happening in the US, but are there not quite a lot of walk-up no-appointment vaccination opportunities by now? There's one in the high school a 20-minute walk away from me here in Dusseldorf, and Germany is still some way behind the US in vaccination pace. (Plus, of course, with J&J, you only need the one shot anyway.)

It's one of the reasons that I lean positive towards venues asking for proof of vaccination before allowing people in - until many people actually feel the inconvenience personally, as you say, path of least resistance favors doing nothing. At least, until you fall REALLY ill, or infect someone else. Knowingly or otherwise.
   13549. Greg Pope Posted: August 03, 2021 at 10:33 AM (#6032502)
Will the eventual booster shots be targeted for the Delta variant? I read that Moderna (and I assume Pfizer) can tweak the vaccine very quickly to target variants and a resubmission and approval isn't required.

I'm debating getting a current booster now.
   13550. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 03, 2021 at 11:37 AM (#6032517)

Perhaps I'm overestimating the extent to which this is happening in the US, but are there not quite a lot of walk-up no-appointment vaccination opportunities by now?

I think there are, but many people may not know that. Also, getting the shot also does require one to be prepared to feel pretty crappy for 24-48 hours. These are minor inconveniences but they are inconveniences nonetheless.

For what it's worth, until last year I had never gotten a flu shot before, even though they were super easy to get. COVID is certainly a lot worse than the flu but some people just aren't that proactive around these things, and the barrier is a lot higher in their minds than it is in reality.
   13551. SoSH U at work Posted: August 03, 2021 at 11:42 AM (#6032519)
For what it's worth, until last year I had never gotten a flu shot before, even though they were super easy to get.


Same with me.
   13552. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 03, 2021 at 11:57 AM (#6032522)
The decline in UK cases per day has slowed dramatically, and for a while (maybe still) was on the upswing in the 20s crowd. That's roughly consistent with freedom day having some effect.

Weekly average in deaths is now up to 77, the highest it's been in this delta wave. We are approaching two weeks from the peak in cases now, so it seems unlikely to get too much higher though. That's a major success for the vaccines.
   13553. catomi01 Posted: August 03, 2021 at 12:49 PM (#6032530)
For what it's worth, until last year I had never gotten a flu shot before, even though they were super easy to get. COVID is certainly a lot worse than the flu but some people just aren't that proactive around these things, and the barrier is a lot higher in their minds than it is in reality.


Last year was the first year I ever got one...and it was 99 % because I was already in the hospital for something else and they offered it...never underestimate a person's capacity for laziness....I'm in a CVS/Walgreens/Rite Aid once a week probably and used to work for Rite Aid, and still never bothered getting one. COVID was a different animal though and I had appointments booked for my wife and I within an hour of eligibility.
   13554. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: August 03, 2021 at 01:51 PM (#6032553)
death cult


Don't most death cults come with a side order of sex and drugs?

Worst. Death. Cult. Ever.
   13555. RJ in TO Posted: August 03, 2021 at 02:11 PM (#6032557)
Last year was the first year I ever got one...and it was 99 % because I was already in the hospital for something else and they offered it...never underestimate a person's capacity for laziness....I'm in a CVS/Walgreens/Rite Aid once a week probably and used to work for Rite Aid, and still never bothered getting one. COVID was a different animal though and I had appointments booked for my wife and I within an hour of eligibility.
My employer used to offer them onsite. All you needed to do was book a time within the week they had a nurse administering them, show up roughly on time, wait around 15 minutes to confirm you didn't have an immediate adverse reaction, and then head back to your desk. The cost was $0, and the time commitment was incredibly low, so I always made sure to get it.

Once they stopped that, I shifted to getting it at the local pharmacist, which also worked out fairly well, in that it was basically the same process, except I'd do it on the way home from the office. Again, minimal time commitment, and no cost.

This last year, it was at the doctor's office, which was a bit more of a pain, only because the demand for them was ludicrously high, so I had to take an appointment first thing in the morning on a Saturday. Still no cost, but a lot less convenient in terms of time/timing.
   13556. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: August 03, 2021 at 02:11 PM (#6032558)
Will the eventual booster shots be targeted for the Delta variant? I read that Moderna (and I assume Pfizer) can tweak the vaccine very quickly to target variants and a resubmission and approval isn't required.
Pfizer has a delta specific booster that they are currently developing/testing. That is in addition to their research into a third dose of the existing vaccine 6-12 months after the second dose. If the delta specific booster is significantly more effective then I would assume that Pfizer will request an EUA and ramp up production ASAP.

In the meantime, Pfizer will continue their efforts to get a third dose added to the vaccination schedule.
For what it's worth, until last year I had never gotten a flu shot before, even though they were super easy to get. COVID is certainly a lot worse than the flu but some people just aren't that proactive around these things, and the barrier is a lot higher in their minds than it is in reality.
I always get a flu shot, but mostly because my health provider makes it incredibly convenient. They have a station in front of the building where they check you in and immediately dose you. If I drive by and there is no line then the entire process takes about 5 minutes. The easier it is to do these things the greater the public uptake.
   13557. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 03, 2021 at 02:21 PM (#6032559)

I started getting a flu shot when my brother and his wife had a baby, and they told me I had to get the shot before they would let me visit. Once I got it and realized how easy it was, it became a no brainer going forward.
   13558. Perry Posted: August 03, 2021 at 03:22 PM (#6032582)
The last few years my local supermarket chain has offered free flu shots at their pharmacy, AND they give you a $10 grocery coupon. So they literally pay you to get it.
   13559. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 03, 2021 at 04:18 PM (#6032612)
As expected, Florida has hit a 7-day average high in reported cases. Latest news is that they are also hitting highs in hospital admissions.
   13560. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 03, 2021 at 04:26 PM (#6032614)
It seems really unbelievable that Florida could break their record highs from previous waves. Its a shame.



   13561. Random Transaction Generator Posted: August 03, 2021 at 05:32 PM (#6032645)
The top 5 states for cases/million (7-day rolling average) are:

Louisiana (994 - blowing away the old state record of 807 from mid-January)
Florida (736)
Arkansas (630)
Mississippi (562)
Alabama (496)

That's the 46th, 24th, 48th, 49th, and 50th ranked states in terms of % fully vaccinated.

It's going to be an awful August for the south.

   13562. Tony S Posted: August 03, 2021 at 05:55 PM (#6032655)
It seems really unbelievable that Florida could break their record highs from previous waves. Its a shame.


Florida is a perfect storm of big, popular tourist destinations and leadership that's actively promoting the transmission of the virus.
   13563. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: August 03, 2021 at 11:55 PM (#6032729)

Almost 72,000 children and teens caught Covid-19 last week -- a "substantial" increase from a week earlier, the American Academy of Pediatrics reported Tuesday.
The group counted 71,726 new cases from July 22 - 29. That is a "substantial" increase from the nearly 39,000 cases reported a week before, and five times as many kids who were sick at the end of June. The definition of a child varies by state but generally includes those up to age 17 or 18.

Link
   13564. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: August 04, 2021 at 12:00 AM (#6032730)
It seems really unbelievable that Florida could break their record highs from previous waves. Its a shame.


Freedumb isn't free ...
   13565. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 04, 2021 at 10:06 AM (#6032749)

New York City will require vaccines for entry to restaurants and gyms

New York (CNN)New York City will require proof of vaccination to enter all restaurants, fitness centers and indoor entertainment venues, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced Tuesday.

"If you're unvaccinated, unfortunately, you will not be able to participate in many things," de Blasio said. "If you want to participate in our society fully, you've got to get vaccinated."
The policy will take effect over the next few weeks.
The city's move comes as businesses across Corporate America begin rolling out vaccine requirements for employees, and in some cases for customers and clients to show their proof of vaccination as well.
Broadway theaters have already announced they will require vaccinations for both audience and staff, at least through the month of October.


Looks like they are only requiring proof of at least one dose in order to patronize these establishments once the policy begins to be enforced on Sept. 13.

I already got an email from my gym about the new policy.
   13566. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 04, 2021 at 11:24 AM (#6032773)
UK cases are up today over last Wednesday. We are 16 days past freedom day, so that tracks pretty well. Even if this isn't just a blip, it seems unlikely cases will shoot way up again like they did over the last few weeks. I think cases might rise slightly but mostly just take quite a bit longer to subside due to freedom day. I guess we'll see.
   13567. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: August 04, 2021 at 12:59 PM (#6032797)
Members of a New York University research team studying political advertising and covid-19 misinformation on Facebook found their accounts suspended Tuesday night, with Facebook pinning the action on the privacy settlement it reached with federal regulators in 2019.
...
Among the projects affected by Facebook’s decision, the Virality Project, launched by the Stanford Internet Observatory, works to understand disinformation about covid-19 being spread by Facebook. The effort is backed by NYU and the University of Washington.
...
“Facebook is silencing us because our work often calls attention to problems on its platform,” Edelson said. “Worst of all, Facebook is using user privacy, a core belief that we have always put first in our work, as a pretext for doing this.”

link
   13568. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 04, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6032798)
We just found out my wife's cousin's father-in-law died of covid. 65 year old Louisianan, big trumper, anti-vaxxer. Rich. Its a shame his wealth couldn't protect him from his beliefs.
   13569. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 04, 2021 at 01:34 PM (#6032801)
Offspring drummer axed from the tour for not getting the vaccine. Says he had Guillain-Barre Syndrome before and the risk of the vaccine giving it to him again is too great.

Meanwhile, Dexter Holland has a PhD in microbiology.
   13570. Tony S Posted: August 04, 2021 at 01:52 PM (#6032804)
Gotta keep 'em vaccinated...
   13571. SoSH U at work Posted: August 04, 2021 at 01:55 PM (#6032806)
Dexter just set that one up on a tee for you, Tony.
   13572. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 04, 2021 at 05:09 PM (#6032855)
Florida and Louisiana didn't really show growth in reported cases the last couple days, over what was reported last week. Topping out already? It's certainly possible, as both are at 7-day reported highs, and we know delta burns bright but short. We'll likely know for sure in just a few days.
   13573. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 05, 2021 at 12:05 AM (#6032921)
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-08-flu-shot-severe-effects-covid-.html


In a newly published study, physician-scientists at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine have shown that the flu vaccine may provide vital protection against COVID-19.

The study, titled "Examining the potential benefits of the influenza vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: A retrospective cohort analysis of 74,754 patients," was published in the peer-reviewed scientific journal PLoS One on August 3. This was the largest study of its kind and analyzed deidentified patient records from around the world, which strongly suggested that the annual flu shot reduces the risks of stroke, sepsis, and DVT in patients with COVID-19. Patients with COVID-19 who had been vaccinated against the flu were also significantly less likely to visit the emergency department and be admitted to the intensive care unit.

   13574. base ball chick Posted: August 05, 2021 at 12:23 AM (#6032923)
13568. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 04, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6032798)

We just found out my wife's cousin's father-in-law died of covid. 65 year old Louisianan, big trumper, anti-vaxxer. Rich. Its a shame his wealth couldn't protect him from his beliefs


- he died happy - he'd rather be dead than vaxxed? he got his wish

we got a congressmoron or councilmoron or something just outside houston city limits - 45 years old with a brand new baby - he was screeching about Those EVULLLLL vakseeens and he caught covid and died 5 days later in the ICU desperately trying to breathe. it really is tough to have any sympathy, it really is, seeing as how the hundreds of thousands who died BEFORE there was the vax would sure nuff have loved to have the opportunity


13573. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 05, 2021 at 12:05 AM (#6032921)

In a newly published study, physician-scientists at the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine have shown that the flu vaccine may provide vital protection against COVID-19


- that is awesome news, sez someone whose family hasn't missed the flu shots in goin on 20 years
   13575. Tony S Posted: August 05, 2021 at 08:37 AM (#6032939)
Florida isn't even testing.

One can be forgiven for thinking that the state's governor was deliberately trying to spread Covid, rather than contain it. Because his actions (or inactions) point towards exactly that.
   13576. Tony S Posted: August 05, 2021 at 08:46 AM (#6032941)
Good Moderna news.

A couple of caveats: This is an internal study, yet to be peer-reviewed; effectiveness against delta vs. other strains isn't really addressed. Still, it's a positive data point.

Anecdotally, my 20-year-old nephew got a breakthrough Covid case after two Moderna shots. He's an EMT worker in the south, so he probably had unusual exposure to the virus. He's fully recovered now, though he says "it sucked".

Moderna also seems to be working on a delta-specific booster, with promising results so far.
   13577. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 05, 2021 at 10:51 AM (#6032951)

Florida isn't even testing.

13575 - "Editor’s note: Since this article has been published, Hillsborough County announced it will reopen two testing sites for residents."

Florida is averaging about as many tests per day as they were doing during the prior peaks. I think the issue is that the state testing sites weren't open so the burden of performing those tests is falling on urgent care centers and commercial testing sites, which I'm sure creates delays in testing and also detracts from the other care those places are supposed to be providing.
   13578. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 05, 2021 at 10:58 AM (#6032952)

Anyway, I went to the Green Day/Weezer concert at Citi Field last night. Fall Out Boy was supposed to perform as well, but a member of their crew tested positive for COVID so they didn't play. It's interesting because all the bands and crew are supposed to be vaccinated and in their own bubble during the tour in order to avoid this type of thing from happening.

It was a packed house, and I wore my mask in the indoor parts of the stadium but not outside. Maybe I should have worn it outside as well -- some people did. The numbers are still not that high in NY and the positive test rate is only 3.5%, so I still felt relatively safe at an outdoor concert, even a packed one. If this concert had been in Florida I probably would have stayed home.
   13579. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 05, 2021 at 11:27 AM (#6032954)
Study Finds Falsehoods About Delta Variant May Spread Twice As Easily As Original Covid Misinformation (The Onion)

ATLANTA—Warning that the new inaccuracies were considerably more contagious than previous varieties, a Centers for Disease Control study released Wednesday found that falsehoods about the Delta variant may spread twice as easily as the original Covid-19 misinformation. “Our data indicate that the transmissibility of the initial Covid fallacies and conspiracy theories pales in comparison to dubious statements concerning the Delta variant,” said CDC director Rochelle Walensky, explaining that even those who had been vaccinated were still capable of spreading misleading and erroneous comments. “We were already struggling under the early waves of unreliable statistics, and the Delta strain of misinformation is making our job even harder. Once these unverified memes and bogus claims break through and infect the minds of large portions of the population through Facebook, Reddit, and Twitter, they’re nearly impossible to control.” The report concluded that the efficacy of booster data to combat the spread of Delta variant lies was still unconfirmed.
   13580. catomi01 Posted: August 05, 2021 at 12:13 PM (#6032957)
I thought the Onion was supposed to be satire?
   13581. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 05, 2021 at 02:36 PM (#6032994)
One constant about covid is that Ioannidis keeps putting out articles where he continues to try to justify IFR claims that are impossibly low.

Ironically, being vaccinated has more or less reduced the IFR to the level of the flu. It's not just death though, there could be other insidious long-term complications of covid versus the flu for at least some percentage of the infected--we don't really know how much worse covid is yet for those who have a serious case but survive it. Also, as this delta wave hits, a LOT more people are having covid all at once then ever get the flu, and it's a LOT more easy to catch due to high transmissibility. So it's not on the same level right now at all, even if IFR might be similar. Once delta wave passes us by, then maybe overall covid risk when vaxxed would be similar to flu risk unvaxxed, for all but young children (who potentially should fear the flu more).
   13582. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 05, 2021 at 02:45 PM (#6032997)
Also, maybe a little early to know for sure, but at least some studies find that while younger people are much less likely to die than older and much less likely to have serious cases, being younger doesn't reduce the risk of a serious case as much as it does the risk of death. So citing IFR bands per age group might be understating how dangerous covid is for younger cohorts.
   13583. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: August 05, 2021 at 03:24 PM (#6033005)
DeSantis insisted he is ready to object to any COVID-19 restrictions that would prevent business from operating normally. And he pointed the finger at Biden, saying he is the one who is “helping facilitate” the spread of COVID-19 by not securing the country’s Southern border with Mexico. “You have hundreds of thousands of people pouring across every month,” DeSantis said. “Not only are they letting them through, they’re farming them out all across the country, putting them on planes, putting them on buses. Do you think they’re worrying about COVID for that? Of course not.” As might be expected, DeSantis didn’t provide any evidence to support his allegations that “whatever variants there are around the world, they’re coming across that Southern border.” The governor had earlier blamed media “hysteria” for concerns over hospital capacity.
As if there was any doubt the Florida governor is using the war of words to raise his national profile, he included criticism of Biden in a fundraising email on Wednesday. “Joe Biden has the nerve to tell me to get out of the way on COVID while he lets COVID-infected migrants pour over our southern border by the hundreds of thousands,” reads the email. He later went on Fox News and repeated the same talking points.

ugh.
   13584. Tony S Posted: August 05, 2021 at 04:05 PM (#6033020)
If only there were a way to minimize one's Covid exposure when coming into contact with these thundering hordes of migrant carriers. Alas, there is none.

Numbers are starting to tick up here in Frederick County. A couple of weeks ago were were getting ten, twelve new cases a day. Yesterday it was 35. We're a well-vaccinated county too (72% of 12-and-older have gotten the shots). I'm hoping our high vax rate protects us somewhat, but travel is just too fluid.
   13585. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 06, 2021 at 11:49 AM (#6033193)
UK cases have leveled off all of a sudden after dropping precipitously. Hard to tell yet but they may be rising slightly. This is now almost certainly the result of freedom day. Was it worth it? Probably, considering how well the vaccines appear to be working, but if they could have delayed freedom day by two weeks the delta wave could have been almost past before freedom day, and that might have been superior.

Deaths per day (7-day average) are up to 85 in the UK, but are unlikely to get significantly higher. Should see them starting to drop soon.
   13586. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: August 06, 2021 at 12:47 PM (#6033204)
Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina is one of three Republican lawmakers who filed a lawsuit last week against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over the mask mandate in the House of Representatives. He has now tested positive for COVID-19. “After experiencing minor symptoms this morning, I sought a COVID-19 test and was just informed the test results were positive,” Norman tweeted. “Thankfully, I have been fully vaccinated and my symptoms remain mild.”

reading this paragraph gave me an aneurysm.
   13587. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 06, 2021 at 02:38 PM (#6033237)
https://timjwise.medium.com/covid-anti-vaxxers-arent-a-maga-death-cult-it-s-worse-than-that-16d74186e46b


This is different, something more dangerous, sociopathic, and sadistic — not suicidal but homicidal.

As I said last year, this is a mass murder movement.

These are people who didn’t and don’t want to die. They simply thought there was no way they would.

To them, COVID was a virus of the big city and those who live there, of old people, or persons with multiple pre-existing conditions (of which they didn’t believe their cholesterol-lined arteries and COPD qualified as examples).

It was only killing the weak.

And they were strong — cowboy strong, to be precise, or at least Sturgis motorcycle ridin’ strong.

   13588. base ball chick Posted: August 06, 2021 at 04:06 PM (#6033270)
I KNOW it is against mah religion to deliberately refuse to pray for the unvaxxed who get sick, but they done ax for it and they done got it so, well, i'll let the Good Lord deal out the sympathy if He feels like it (but you KNOW i ain't giving one single cent to their pathetic gofundmes)

because i disremember anywhere that the Lord Jesus said - to Hellll with other people, do whatever you happen to want to and effem if they don't like it/get sick/die

and as for those don't got no religion, they got willful maroon-ness and i got no sympasthy for all of therm claiming the vax turns you into a magnet (only not for $$$ or smoking HOTTTTT guys, unfortunately) or makes you miscarry or makes you whatevs. let them get it and die and watch they friends/family get it and die and my sympathy level, like that buttmunch congressmoron from dickinson, is like zero
   13589. Tony S Posted: August 06, 2021 at 05:07 PM (#6033281)
One of the more fascinating (and disturbing) sidebars of this whole Covid experience has been how, in the span of just a few months, antivax went from being a crackpot boutique hippie cause to a badge of identity for much of the right, in the span of just a few months.

There's a Twitter exchange in which that Apley guy responded to a doctor announcing positive news about the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine (pre-delta). No mention of masks, shutdowns, or anything -- just a chirpy post about how the Pfizer vaccine rocks. Apley's reaction: "You are an absolute enemy of a free people." That was how he felt about the existence of a working vaccine. I can't imagine he was unique.

It's going to take a long, long time before this virus is eradicated. And I'm not talking about Covid.
   13590. baxter Posted: August 06, 2021 at 10:56 PM (#6033330)
13589 Is that the late George Apley?

Perhaps some promising news, perhaps, not (considering the source):
Fox News
Cholesterol drug cuts coronavirus infection by 70%, researchers find

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cholesterol-drug-cuts-coronavirus-infection-133526795.html

13587 What is the point? It is really just an ad hominem against people who won't vaccinate. Isn't it a risk benefit analysis. It doesn't seem that strange that people underestimate the benefits of the vaccine or underestimate the risks of catching the disease. Also, it's not surprising that people live their lives thinking about what makes them well, disregarding what happens to others. Selflessness is a very rare quality (I am not saying I have it).

Please note, this is not my view, but I can see someone asking why is it that the vaccine is not FDA approved but the useless Alzheimer's drug got approval?

I do dig the point about anti vax becoming a right wing talking point. Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose.
   13591. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: August 06, 2021 at 11:46 PM (#6033339)
13587 What is the point? It is really just an ad hominem against people who won't vaccinate.
you say that like it's a bad thing. naming and shaming is an effective tactic.
Isn't it a risk benefit analysis. It doesn't seem that strange that people underestimate the benefits of the vaccine or underestimate the risks of catching the disease.
no, what's happening is not comparable to a risk/benefit analysis, because that would imply that there's higher level consideration going on.

most of the people who are willing to do that work, even ones that actively promote anti-vax sentiment,such as the congressperson in [13586], decide to get vaccinated.
Also, it's not surprising that people live their lives thinking about what makes them well, disregarding what happens to others. Selflessness is a very rare quality (I am not saying I have it).

anyone who can disregard what's happened in the last 18 months is probably a ####### monster.
   13592. baxter Posted: August 06, 2021 at 11:58 PM (#6033345)
I'll bite on 13591; naming/shaming
an effective tactic for what? If you want to get people to change their minds, it's an ineffective strategy.

We'll agree to disagree on risk/benefit; people think how they think. There was a discussion on this site of the book "Thinking Fast and Slow" People often think emotionally. They're people, not computers. But even with computers, it can be GIGO.

Disregard, no, interpret in a way that fits in with how they see the world, which may differ from how you see it. Again, it may be empowering to call people monsters, but get beyond the outrage machine to something that is constructive.
   13593. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: August 07, 2021 at 12:31 AM (#6033353)
I'll bite on 13591; naming/shaming
an effective tactic for what? If you want to get people to change their minds, it's an ineffective strategy.

We'll agree to disagree on risk/benefit; people think how they think. There was a discussion on this site of the book "Thinking Fast and Slow" People often think emotionally. They're people, not computers. But even with computers, it can be GIGO.

Disregard, no, interpret in a way that fits in with how they see the world, which may differ from how you see it. Again, it may be empowering to call people monsters, but get beyond the outrage machine to something that is constructive.
you're falling into that classic neoliberal trap, thinking that you can win the gawking rabble over to your side by meeting them in the middle and calmly persuading them with logic and reason and compassion.

that #### doesn't work. like you just said: "people often think emotionally"
   13594. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: August 07, 2021 at 01:01 AM (#6033358)
at the risk of getting too "meta", baxter, let me ask you:

is my calm and compassionate argument against the idea that "calm and compassionate arguments can change peoples minds" causing you to change your mind? or is it entrenching your previously held beliefs even further, because you don't trust my authority on this subject and i'm telling you something you don't want to hear?


   13595. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 07, 2021 at 08:31 AM (#6033362)
I don’t know that calm and compassionate arguments can change minds, but I’m not sure that naming and shaming is very effective when these people can retreat into their online support groups where they all share misinformation and commiserate about how they are being victimized as badly as the Jews in Nazi Germany. I don’t have a good solution but the fact that you can go online and find reinforcement and a support group for pretty much any fringe idea has changed the game.
   13596. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 07, 2021 at 08:33 AM (#6033363)

This past week, 10.9% of FL’s cases were in the 65+ age group. That’s still below where it was at the peak, but it’s not great unless those are mostly mild breakthrough cases.
   13597. Tony S Posted: August 07, 2021 at 09:01 AM (#6033365)
Encouraging J&J vaccine study. And delta-specific to boot; most other studies have been fuzzy about delta.

(It's the NYT, so it's paywalled. Still, I thought it was worth passing on.)

In the trial, called Sisonke, the researchers evaluated one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine in nearly 500,000 health care workers, who are at high risk of Covid-19. The vaccine has an efficacy of up to 95 percent against death from the Delta variant, and up to 71 percent against hospitalization, the researchers reported. (The vaccine did slightly worse against the Beta variant, which is thought to be more adept at sidestepping the immune response than Delta.)


As a late-fifties diabetic and stroke survivor, I really, really don't want to get this virus. It's nice to know that my options for a third shot might be broader than I thought.
   13598. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: August 07, 2021 at 04:57 PM (#6033398)
A right-wing radio host from Florida who publicly criticized vaccines told his friends to get vaccinated shortly before he died of COVID-19, according to NBC affiliate WPTV. Dick Farrell, who was also an anchor on Newsmax, frequently railed against vaccines on Facebook. “Why take a vax promoted by people who lied 2u all along about masks, where the virus came from and the death toll?” Farrel wrote on Facebook on July 3. In another post, Farrell raised doubts about the effectiveness of vaccines because he claimed two people he knew who had been vaccinated were later hospitalized with the coronavirus.


note:
this anti-vax right wing radio host who got covid is a different person than the one that was mentioned on the previous page.
   13599. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 09, 2021 at 06:08 PM (#6033584)
Ugh. Nate Silver citing at least two covid partial-cranks today in the span of a few hours. Not at all a good look. Fine, he thinks some of the messaging in the media is unhelpfully alarmist (and he is not totally wrong), but cite some ####### professionals not these idiots. He's doing way more harm than good via overcorrection.

Florida has exploded. 28,000 cases both today and yesterday, and 7-day average in deaths already over 110.
   13600. base ball chick Posted: August 09, 2021 at 11:39 PM (#6033619)
filp
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