Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 14025 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 140 of 141 pages ‹ First  < 138 139 140 141 > 
   13901. Jay Z Posted: September 10, 2021 at 06:20 PM (#6039090)
Bill Freehan passed away on August 19. Since then, 20 days have passed without a death of a former major leaguer being recorded by BB-Ref. If that holds up (if there are no deaths that haven't been reported yet), I believe that will tie the longest no-deaths stretch since August-September 2017. If there are no deaths through the weekend, that will surpass a 22 day stretch in August-September 2015.


You'd probably have to wait a while to confirm that though. I don't do baseball, but there was a fairly prominent football player, Wendell Hayes - someone who played 10+ years - where Pro Football Reference wasn't updated for a number of months. I sent them something on it. His death never made the major sites for some reason. There was an obit, but either the stringers never picked it up or the family never spread it any further. That's much more likely for some cup of coffee dude.
   13902. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: September 10, 2021 at 06:31 PM (#6039091)
If the pandemic were only impacting the unvaccinated population, there might be some slim argument for just throwing up our hands and saying go with God (or Joe Rogan). But that’s just not the case. While the vast majority of people getting critically ill and dying from COVID are unvaccinated, about 14 percent of hospitalizations and 16 percent of deaths in late June and early July were among those who suffered breakthrough infections. Meanwhile, hospitals in the hardest hit areas are canceling procedures and running out of beds in their intensive care units, putting other, non-COVID patients at risk. Pediatric cases are also rising while kids still aren’t eligible for shots. Because having the shot reduces the chances that you’ll catch or spread COVID, deciding whether to get vaccinated is simply not just a matter of personal wellbeing.
...
at some point, having patience for the holdouts means trading away others’ health, lives, and their simple ability to live a normal day-to-day existence without having to worry about, say, whether the heavy-breathing guy watching Assassin’s Creed, of all random movies, near you on the plane is exhaling a fog of COVID (speaking from personal experience here). It’s been long enough.

   13903. Tony S Posted: September 10, 2021 at 06:36 PM (#6039096)

Ugh. We had 1553 reported new cases in Maryland yesterday. A very sharp increase from the previous few days -- so sharp, I suspect a testing backlog after the long weekend. The numbers for the whole week are still well below the previous week (6982 vs 8488).

It's far worse, proportionally speaking, in the more rural counties (Allegany County had 53 new cases per 100K, Dorchester in second place with 42). Lowest incidences were Calvert (6) and Montgomery (10). Baltimore City was at 13. Frederick was at 16.

How much of this is creep from the south, how much of this is Labor Day, how much of this is reporting anomalies -- that remains to be seen.
   13904. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: September 10, 2021 at 07:04 PM (#6039099)
How much of this is creep from the south, how much of this is Labor Day, how much of this is reporting anomalies -- that remains to be seen.

don't forget about the jewish high holidays: travel + crowds + singing + indoors + hours on end + many are aggressively republican.
   13905. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 10, 2021 at 07:13 PM (#6039103)
Not in Allegany and Dorchester counties; probably less so anywhere in MD than thrstate NY and FL
   13906. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 10, 2021 at 07:18 PM (#6039107)
Looking at single day reported cases is pretty meaningless IMO. I only really look at 7-day averages, and around a holiday weekend I might even look at 2-week averages.
   13907. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 10, 2021 at 07:25 PM (#6039110)
10% at best, imo.

it would have helped, but the root of the problem is that the healthcare system collapsed. too many patients, not enough personnel, and the personnel on hand didn't have sufficient tools to protect themselves. "correct" treatment can't save your life if you die before you get through triage.


I’m going to strongly disagree with this. Although it’s hard to know for certain due to the lack of good data, I would estimate that the IFR, even when controlling for age, is probably 25-50% lower now than it was at the outset of the pandemic. It’s possible I’m wrong, but a constant IFR (or one that has only declined by 10%) just isn’t consistent with the data I’ve seen. Don’t have time to go into it in more detail but I believe that lockdowns / delaying the biggest waves until doctors had a better idea of how to treat COVID saved a lot of lives.
   13908. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 10, 2021 at 10:45 PM (#6039146)
Just to expand on my previous post — some of the early antibody studies implied an IFR of 1-1.2% based on reported deaths (some were a bit higher or lower. During the recent winter wave, the CFR in Florida was about 1.5-1.7%. For these things to both be true, it would require:

1. The demographics of who was getting infected were much different earlier in the pandemic — possible and likely part of it, given that old people were probably taking more precautions later in the pandemic than at the outset when we didn’t even know we were in a pandemic.
2. We’re now identifying nearly every COVID case — unlikely; most estimates say it’s more like 1 out of every 2-4.
3. Florida is vastly undercounting their dead relative to places like NY or Spain at the beginning of the pandemic — excess death numbers don’t show this to be the case.
4. Treatment has improved and cut the IFR substantially — this seems likely to me and probably a bit part of the improvement as well, given process of elimination from the above. Anecdotally, we know that they were putting a lot of people on ventilators early on when in retrospect that seems like it wasn’t always the right course of treatment. And there are treatments available now, like monoclonal antibodies, that appear to reduce the risk of hospitalization and death as well.
   13909. Tony S Posted: September 11, 2021 at 08:43 AM (#6039168)
Good thing antivaxxers are only putting themselves at risk.

The family of a Cullman man who died of heart issues in Mississippi is asking people to get vaccinated for COVID after 43 hospitals across three states were unable to accept him because of full cardiac ICUs.


As of Thursday, there are 60 more ICU patients in Alabama than there are beds, and 51% of those patients have tested positive for COVID-19.
   13910. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 11, 2021 at 09:32 AM (#6039175)
For what it's worth, I don't think changing guidance when the facts on the ground change is moving the goalposts. It's actually good science, although I would say the communication around it has been poor. The vaccines are highly effective, but not 100% effective. If everyone got vaccinated, the virus would have limited opportunity to spread, and it would peter out over time. But when 40% of the population is unvaccinated (or 60% in some states), and you have a more contatious variant, then the virus has the ability to continue to spread.

With ~4,000 cases per day in NY and a vaccine that is 90% effective, I'm roughly as safe as I was when there were ~400 cases per day and I was unvaccinated. So it makes sense to take similar precautions.

I'm president of the co-op board for our medium-sized apartment building, and we have wrestled with these questions as well, not because of what the CDC says (although we factor that in), but rather because of what we're hearing from residents and what the numbers looked like. We relaxed our restrictions a few months ago when cases in NYC were low and declining. But as cases in the city rose, and we had a number of breakthrough cases in the building, including one individual who was hospitalized, we decided to reinstitute certain restrictions.

I'm actually living pretty close to my pre-pandemic life right now -- I go into the office most days, I go to the gym, and we went to Greece last month despite the CDC recommending Americans not go there. But we aren't treating the pandemic as though it's over. We eat outside at restaurants, we wear masks when we go shopping, I avoid peak times at the gym. We avoided some activities on vacation that we might otherwise have undertaken. This isn't because I don't believe the vaccines work, but it's because I understand how they work. And even if the health risk to me is pretty low, I don't want to contribute to the community spread. If everyone was vaccinated, I wouldn't have to worry nearly as much about those things.

The vaccine mandates are a great thing in my opinion. I will feel a lot more comfortable at the gym or at a restaurant/bar now that they're requiring people to be vaccinated. I felt more comfortable flying to Greece than I would flying domestically, because I knew everyone on the flight either had to show proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test. Here in NYC the mandates should be good for businesses.
   13911. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 11, 2021 at 09:49 AM (#6039178)

Latest weekly Florida update:

100,012 new cases last week, a 23% decline from the prior week and a 34% decline from the peak two weeks ago.

The positive test rate declined to 13.5%, down from 15.4% the prior week and 20.4% at the recent peak, so the case decline appears to be real and not just a result of the holiday weekend.

11.1% of cases were in the 65+ age group, consistent with recent weeks.

2,448 new deaths reported, or 350 per day, a 4% increase from the prior week. As expected, deaths are still flat/rising a couple of weeks after cases began to decline, due to the reporting lag. I would guess they start to decline next week, but we'll see.
   13912. . Posted: September 11, 2021 at 10:47 AM (#6039182)
The vaccine mandates are a great thing in my opinion. I will feel a lot more comfortable at the gym or at a restaurant/bar now that they're requiring people to be vaccinated. I felt more comfortable flying to Greece than I would flying domestically, because I knew everyone on the flight either had to show proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test. Here in NYC the mandates should be good for businesses.


Right, but it was said that people would be comfortable once the vaccines came and that didn't happen at all, and it took an entirely foreseeable thing to shake that comfort -- the virus being spreadable and actually spreading among the vaccinated as shown by the P-Town study from whence the new panic started. If the vaccine rate gets up into the high 80s or low 90s, "that" faction will find something else to be "uncomfortable" about -- because there will never be the pure safety from Covid they seek. Likely candidates are (1) another variant starts sloshing around -- it's inevitable, that's what viruses do; and (2) the vaccines start "expiring" and then the worrying/hectoring cycle starts anew but this time over booster shots. There's little doubt the mandate debate is going to port over to booster shots in a very few short months. At that point, some people won't feel comfortable at the gym or a plane anymore because, even though the plane and the gym have a vaccine requirement, they don't know whether the heavy-breathing guy over in the corner has gotten his vaccine "updated."

We're on a never-ending cycle at this point.
   13913. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 11, 2021 at 11:13 AM (#6039183)
Right, but it was said that people would be comfortable once the vaccines came and that didn't happen at all, and it took an entirely foreseeable thing to shake that comfort -- the virus being spreadable and actually spreading among the vaccinated as shown by the P-Town study from whence the new panic started. If the vaccine rate gets up into the high 80s or low 90s, "that" faction will find something else to be "uncomfortable" about -- because there will never be the pure safety from Covid they seek. Likely candidates are (1) another variant starts sloshing around -- it's inevitable, that's what viruses do; and (2) the vaccines start "expiring" and then the worrying/hectoring cycle starts anew but this time over booster shots. There's little doubt the mandate debate is going to port over to booster shots in a very few short months. At that point, some people won't feel comfortable at the gym or a plane anymore because, even though the plane and the gym have a vaccine requirement, they don't know whether the heavy-breathing guy over in the corner has gotten his vaccine "updated."


People in my building weren't worried because of the P-town study, they were worried because their neighbors had contracted COVID. This is rational -- ultimately, most people weren't worried when cases and the risk level was low. They were rationally worried when the cases and actual risks increased.

We all know some people who are excessively risk averse about COVID, but I'm not sure why those people bother you (and folks like Nate Silver) so much. Yeah, if it's your brother and he refuses to see you because he's worried about COVID, that can be frustrating. But right now, the vast majority of the country are going about living their lives. The fact that the virus was still spreading rapidly until about a week ago and 1,500+ people were dying per day shows that overall, people probably should have been more cautious, and we should have been doing more to get people vaccinated, not less.

Not sure why you get so up-in-arms about the prospect of COVID booster shots. Half the country gets the flu shot every year, for a much less deadly disease. COVID boosters are a very minor inconvenience for something that can save hundreds of thousands of lives per year. And Moderna announced today that they are working on a 3-in-1 shot that provides a flu booster, COVID booster, and an RSV vaccine (which I don't think exists yet), with positive pre-clinical trial data. So there's a decent chance that we're not even talking about an additional shot for the majority of people.
   13914. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 11, 2021 at 01:11 PM (#6039191)
I will feel a lot more comfortable at the gym or at a restaurant/bar now that they're requiring people to be vaccinated.

I would, too, but Texas.

& As for FLTB, my gully vaxed good friend who happened to be on the Cape that weekend still isn't recovered. I'll be sure to pass on your suggestions.
   13915. base ball chick Posted: September 11, 2021 at 04:14 PM (#6039238)
13912. . Posted: September 11, 2021 at 10:47 AM (#6039182)

...but it was said that people would be comfortable once the vaccines came and that didn't happen at all, and it took an entirely foreseeable thing to shake that comfort -- the virus being spreadable and actually spreading among the vaccinated as shown by the P-Town study from whence the new panic started.


- sigh
we WERE more comfortable. except for the immunocompromised - all of us, vax and non-vax and most people started acting like we did pre-covid
- but then delta happened. theres just too many people who were unable to be vaxxed or covid deniers (either the disease or vax)


If the vaccine rate gets up into the high 80s or low 90s, "that" faction will find something else to be "uncomfortable" about -- because there will never be the pure safety from Covid they seek. Likely candidates are (1) another variant starts sloshing around -- it's inevitable, that's what viruses do; and (2) the vaccines start "expiring" and then the worrying/hectoring cycle starts anew but this time over booster shots.


- and people shouldn't be uncomfortable like WHY?
looks like covid mutates easily and often and delta infects more people and is more deadly. AND it infects and kills the vaxxed too, just at a lower rate. (it's not like the measles shot - nobody except the immunocompromised gets measles after finishing being vaxxed at age 4 so we are not afraid of catching measles)

none of us knows how long protection lasts in any particular person. or if we ever made any antibodies in the first place. that is scary

this feels like waves of plague or something. theres always rats and theres always fleas

There's little doubt the mandate debate is going to port over to booster shots in a very few short months. At that point, some people won't feel comfortable at the gym or a plane anymore because, even though the plane and the gym have a vaccine requirement, they don't know whether the heavy-breathing guy over in the corner has gotten his vaccine "updated."

We're on a never-ending cycle at this point.


- so your idea is to do what? no boosters? no more masks anywhere? say it exists and kills/hospitalizes thousands but like so what?

people are dying when they shouldn't from NOT covid because there's not enough ER room/docs/ICUs because they are already filled with anti-vaxxers taking up all the room. along with the folks not completely protected by the shot

oh yeah

and we haven't even gotten into the long haulers who are being uncounted and ignored because they are not important because they are not either in the hospital or dead. they can't do anything, have to be taken care of by somebody, can't get disability. and no one is supposed to be afraid of THAT happening to them if they get covid, like WHY???
   13916. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 11, 2021 at 06:00 PM (#6039248)
Ignore him, bbc, he lives on stupid.
   13917. . Posted: September 11, 2021 at 06:20 PM (#6039254)
Lisa — Do you support a vaccine mandate for every Texas citizen over 12? Not just those who work for companies with over 100 employees, but every citizen. Under the Jacobson Supreme Court precedent, it would (probably) be constitutional. Why haven’t any blue state governors simply mandated that their citizens get the vaccine?

Do you support the various arms of the Texas police forces enforcing the mandate? Going into neighborhoods and arresting people?
   13918. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 15, 2021 at 01:19 PM (#6039812)
And so, today, per Worldometer, Mississippi has passed New Jersey for most per capita COVID deaths. Yesterday, Louisiana passed New York for third place. Connecticut has fallen out of the top ten, and Arizona seems poised to pass Massachusetts for fifth place.
   13919. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: September 15, 2021 at 07:05 PM (#6039871)
Jesse Dougherty @dougherty_jesse
Sources: By the end of today, the Nationals plan to terminate contracts for multiple employees who did not comply with the vaccinate mandate implemented in August. This includes Bob Boone, pitching coordinator Brad Holman and minor league pitching coach Larry Pardo.

Jesse Dougherty @dougherty_jesse
On Sept. 1, the Nationals placed unvaccinated non-playing employees on unpaid administrative leave for two weeks, giving them time to review exemption requests. If, in that time, those employees changed their mind about getting vaccinated, they could have remained with the club.
   13920. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 15, 2021 at 08:47 PM (#6039887)
“This is the first year in the history of Alabama that we’ve had more deaths in our state than we had births in our state,” Harris said. “Our state shrank last year. And it’s not a coincidence that that’s about exactly the number of deaths we had from COVID.”

Data from the Alabama Department of Public Health shows there were about 7,000 more deaths than births in Alabama in 2020. It also shows there were 10,605 more total deaths in 2020 than in 2019.

“Our state literally shrunk this year for the first time in history, even going back to World War II, when people were serving overseas; going back to the Spanish Flu epidemic, when we had the flu in our state; going back to World War I. We’ve never seen that happen before in the state of Alabama until COVID this past year.”


Link
   13921. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 15, 2021 at 09:04 PM (#6039889)
My friend had to fire the CFO of his company, who refused to get vaccinated or do the weekly COVID testing that they offered as an alternative to vaccination. Some people out there have just had their brains warped during this whole thing.
   13922. Tony S Posted: September 15, 2021 at 09:59 PM (#6039902)

Some people out there have just had their brains warped during this whole thing.


People will ingest horse paste, drink bleach, gargle iodine, gobble up zinc, or just take their chances with a disease that's killed over 650,000 Americans and permanently disabled who knows how many more... anything but (gasp) getting a safe, effective, *free* vaccine.

A thousand years from now, future civilizations will study this period of human history and just scratch and shake their heads over this mass insanity.
   13923. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: September 15, 2021 at 10:29 PM (#6039908)
The recent stretch in history that I'm finally beginning to understand in comparison is McCarthyism. Mass hysteria and self-delusion in order to achieve political gains.

But sacrificing yourself to the plague for the cause is something new.
   13924. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: September 15, 2021 at 10:33 PM (#6039910)
A thousand years from now, future civilizations will study this period of human history and just scratch and shake their heads over this mass insanity.

to the extent that anything happening now is interesting and/or important enough to be studied 1000 years from now, this story here is not about people; it's about algorithmic indoctrination.


but then, given the likely trajectory of geopolitical power over the next 200/500/1000 years, the lessons of that story are more likely to be implemented than they are to be studied.
   13925. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: September 15, 2021 at 10:35 PM (#6039911)
Human stupidity and GREED is without bound. I do not think this era will stand out 1000 years from now.
   13926. Tony S Posted: September 15, 2021 at 10:46 PM (#6039916)
I do not think this era will stand out 1000 years from now.


Well, as you said, voluntarily dying of a plague for... for *what*, exactly... IS a new development. Or maybe it isn't -- is there any historical precedent for this kind of thing?
   13927. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 15, 2021 at 11:34 PM (#6039928)
is there any historical precedent for this kind of thing?

In the past, it followed martial losses, not elections.
   13928. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: September 16, 2021 at 11:20 AM (#6039959)
Well, as you said, voluntarily dying of a plague for... for *what*, exactly... IS a new development.

Is life really worth living if you can't live it in a perpetual state of freedom to own the libs?
   13929. . Posted: September 16, 2021 at 11:55 AM (#6039963)
Well, as you said, voluntarily dying of a plague for... for *what*, exactly... IS a new development. Or maybe it isn't -- is there any historical precedent for this kind of thing?


Well, first of all, they aren't "voluntarily" dying anymore than the fool that doesn't wear a seatbelt or an idiot who gets on a motorcycle without a helmet "voluntarily" dies if they happen to get in an accident.

So, yes, the unvaccinated people are stupid, even highly stupid -- but they're stupid in a way that has ample historical and contemporary precedent.(*)

Stupid, however, is not "insane." Things like the current cultural insistence -- not just proffered claim, but insistence -- that, e.g., men can menstruate and get pregnant -- comes much closer to "insane." And, yes, future generations will see it as such.

(*) There's also at some level with some of them an urge to be free of government mandate and overreach, which not only has historical precedent -- it has noble historical precedent. Anyone who would denominate that urge as "insane" is saying far more about themselves than they are the urge.

it's about algorithmic indoctrination.


People are getting algorithmically indoctrinated to a far greater extent than just the unvaccinated; indeed there are many here who are prime targets and have already plainly become algorithmically captured. BTF's decline, and the culture's generally, follows the growth path of algorithmic capture very closely.
   13930. Eudoxus Posted: September 16, 2021 at 12:04 PM (#6039966)
Back in July I estimated that daily COVID deaths in the US would have a Delta-wave peak of about 850. So first, public acknowledgement that I was way off on that. (Current running 7-day average = 1609; the last two days have both been over 2000.) And second: where did I go wrong? I just did a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation using the January peak numbers and adjusting them for vaccination levels for different age groups. Did I just mess up the math? (I don't think so.) Is the death rate among the vaccinated non-negligible enough to throw off the numbers? (It would have to be *quite* non-negligible, I think.) Is the "real" fatality rate among the non-vaccinated in fact much higher (~x2) than the January peak? Has the age range most affected by Delta shifted so that the higher vaccination rates among the elderly is less of a buffer against high total death numbers than I was anticipating?

I think the numbers suggest we're starting to come down off the Delta wave peak, but it's a pretty tentative suggestion. And the UK curve, unlike the India curve, hints that coming down may be a slower process than I had been hoping for.
   13931. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 16, 2021 at 01:37 PM (#6039986)
I thot Texas might be coming down, but the last two days make me less hopeful. If nothing else, deaths will remain peaky for a while longer as cases decline, if they do. The insistence in so many states of not taking precautions will slow it.
   13932. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 16, 2021 at 03:45 PM (#6040001)
13930 you took the January peak and tried to adjust for vaccination rate, but the country is much more open now than it was in January. Vaccination is just one variable. This pandemic has been virtually impossible for even the experts to predict so I wouldn’t give yourself too hard a time over it.
   13933. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 16, 2021 at 04:04 PM (#6040007)
Excess deaths per million as estimated through this weekend.
1st column: age-adjusted (to the US over-65 percentage)
2nd column: raw esitmate based on CDC data and recent case totals
3rd column: percent above expected deaths for 18-month period starting 3/15/2020
Mississippi     4725    4400       27.25

Texas           4200    3125       29.00
Louisiana       4025    3675       24.50

Alabama         3725    3725       22.00
Arkansas        3650    3650       23.25
Georgia         3500    2875       23.25

Oklahoma        3375    3125       21.00
Arizona         3350    3475       26.75
Nevada          3350    3125       24.25
Tennessee       3350    3250       19.25
New York        3325    3250       28.00

South Dakota    3250    3200       23.75
D.C.            3250    2375       17.50
New Jersey      3175    3075       24.25
North Dakota    3125    2825       20.50
South Carolina  3060    3200       21.25

Indiana         2950    2750       18.75
New Mexico      2900    2975       21.50
Missourri       2900    2900       18.00
Rhode Island    2875    2925       20.75
Kentucky        2875    2800       17.00

California      2825    2400       23.50
Illinois        2775    2550       20.50
Michigan        2725    2750       18.75
Florida         2700    3300       22.25
Connecticut     2700    2750       20.75

Pennsylvania    2525    2725       17.50
Iowa            2500    2525       18.25
Kansas          2500    2325       17.00
Ohio            2500    2525       15.75

Montana         2475    2725       29.00
West Virginia   2450    2875       15.00
Delaware        2425    2700       28.00
Maryland        2400    2175       17.25
North Carolina  2375    2300       16.50

Wyoming         2350    2225       28.00
Colorado        2325    1950       18.50
Virginia        2300    2075       16.75
Idaho           2250    2100       17.25
Massachusetts   2225    2175       17.50

Utah            1975    1300       13.75
Nebraska        1950    1825       13.75

Minnesota       1725    1600       13.50
Wisconsin       1700    1700       12.25

Washington      1375    1250       10.75
New Hampshire   1325    1400       10.25
Alaska          1300     900        7.50
Oregon          1175    1225        8.75

Maine            825    1000        6.00
Vermont          725     825        5.50
Hawaii           600     650        5.25

United States   2575    2575       19.75

All numbers approximate, with some estimation involved.


Mississippi has been the runaway leader for months, and continues to pull ahead. Texas has been making a hard charge in 2021. Louisiana has been a consistent performer.

Most of the lesser-vaxxed sunbelt has passed or is passing the Northeast. The United States as a whole is at or at least very near 850,000 excess deaths now (through this weekend).

You'll notice that some of the southern states don't have as high a percent above expected deaths, despite having worse age-adjusted excess deaths, as places like NY or NJ. That's mostly because life expectancy is already shorter in those states. The bottom 7 includes: Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Alabama. All of these except Kentucky are in the top 10 of the list above. New York has one of the highest life expectancies (in the top 3), and NJ is 8th.
   13934. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 16, 2021 at 04:47 PM (#6040010)
Thanks very much for that thorough, and thoroughly explained, chart!
   13935. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 16, 2021 at 05:10 PM (#6040012)
Oops. 0Montana, Delaware and Wyoming all have fat finger errors. They should have percentages above expected of: 19.00, 18.00, and 18.00 respectively.
   13936. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 16, 2021 at 09:26 PM (#6040035)
Sequential headlines on the Washington Post home page:

Idaho moves to ration medical care statewide amid surge in covid hospitalizations

A doctor called coronavirus vaccines ‘fake.’ Now he sits on an Idaho regional health board.
   13937. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: September 16, 2021 at 09:31 PM (#6040037)
Which is worse, the White Supremacist Northwest or the Dirt-Eating South? Almost certainly the latter, though as a pretty much lifelong denizen of the old Confederacy I have to say the idea of someplace like Idaho genuinely makes my skin crawl.
   13938. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: September 16, 2021 at 09:46 PM (#6040039)
Which is worse, the White Supremacist Northwest or the Dirt-Eating South? Almost certainly the latter, though as a pretty much lifelong denizen of the old Confederacy I have to say the idea of someplace like Idaho genuinely makes my skin crawl.

i would greatly prefer to live in idaho, montana, wyoming, or the dakotas (to say nothing of washington, oregon and colorado, which have their own lengthy history (and present) of white supremacy), but then, i'm also a rather unexceptional white man, so it's pretty easy for me to blend into the background if i want to.
   13939. gef the talking mongoose, peppery hostile Posted: September 16, 2021 at 09:52 PM (#6040042)
As I just noted on the Political Refugees board, I seem to be uncomfortable with really white areas, very likely because -- despite also being a rather unexceptional (other than my godlike genius & staggering good looks, of course) white man as well -- I don't believe I've ever lived in any.
   13940. Tony S Posted: September 17, 2021 at 08:25 AM (#6040052)
Idaho is sending many of its Covid patients to Washington, and straining Washington's hospital capacity, while Idaho continues to adopt next to no mitigation measures to put a stop to this. Talk about entitlement.

High-vax states might want to consider banding together and announcing that they won't be taking any unvaccinated Covid transfers from out-of-state, just so they can protect their own. If you're a New York resident and your appendix bursts and there are no ICU beds available because they're being taken up by West Virginia Covid-deniers, you'd probably be pretty pissed.
   13941. bunyon Posted: September 17, 2021 at 08:53 AM (#6040055)
I’d love to live in Idaho or Montana too. Beautiful places with low population density. Were I a person of color, no way.
   13942. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: September 17, 2021 at 11:24 AM (#6040080)
The entire state of Idaho has enacted crisis of care standards of rationed health care. The death panels have arrived.
   13943. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 17, 2021 at 11:38 AM (#6040089)
Three Texas women beat up a hostess at an Upper West Side restaurant after she questioned the legitimacy of their COVID vaccination cards, police said Friday.

The violence broke out around 4:50 p.m. Thursday when the trio asked to be seated inside Carmine’s on Broadway near W. 91st St. The hostess believed their vaccine cards — a form of proof required under New York City’s latest vaccine mandate — might be bogus.

The tourists proceeded to punch the 24-year-old hostess repeatedly, tearing her necklace off, according to police. She was treated at the scene but was not badly hurt.

...The tourists — Kaeita Nkeenge Rankin, 44, and Tyonnie Keshay Rankin, 21, both from Humble, along with Sally Rechelle Lewis, 49, of Houston — were issued desk appearance tickets for assault, then released.


Link.
   13944. . Posted: September 17, 2021 at 12:10 PM (#6040103)
The anti-vax sentiment in places like Idaho is indeed detestable; that said, it was a failure of government and organization not to have used the last 19 months to adjust hospital/ICU capacity to meet potential waves and upturns and variants. Both can be true, both are true.
   13945. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 17, 2021 at 12:55 PM (#6040114)

The anti-vax sentiment in places like Idaho is indeed detestable; that said, it was a failure of government and organization not to have used the last 19 months to adjust hospital/ICU capacity to meet potential waves and upturns and variants. Both can be true, both are true.


EDIT: Some of this is true, but my understanding is that part of the limitation is not just facilities/beds, but the doctors and nurses as well. You can't just create new doctors out of thin air, although some places were effectively graduating students early last year so that they could treat COVID patients.
   13946. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 17, 2021 at 01:04 PM (#6040115)

Also, you can't disentangle the anti-vax sentiment from the failure of government in these places. Is it a surprise that the same places where many government officials haven't taken the virus seriously and are skeptical of the vaccines also didn't take steps to prepare for the rise in case and hospitalizations?
   13947. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: September 17, 2021 at 01:25 PM (#6040117)
Strong anti-vax movement is highly coordinated with failure of government, because they're the same guys.

Its like the police who opened doors for the January 6 mob. Same team.

Then they blame the other team for their failures.


   13948. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: September 17, 2021 at 04:20 PM (#6040145)
Fake CDC cards, often ordered online, are big business and growing, and two NFL agents who work for different agencies told Defector that players they represent asked them for help getting a fake vaccine card. (Both agents declined to do so.) One of those agents said that his client asked him about getting a fake card because a teammate of his had used one. “He was like, ‘Oh well my teammate’s got this fake card. Should I just do that?’” the agent said. “I’m like no! Just get vaccinated!”

This player was interested in getting a fake because he had just been placed on the COVID-19 reserve list for being a close contact. Two days after the conversation with his agent, the player got COVID himself.

Based on what that agent learned from his conversation with this player and others similarly shut down as close contacts in 2021, he estimates that 10–15 percent of players have a fake vaccine card. “I think it is a lot more common than people realize,” he said.

   13949. villageidiom Posted: September 17, 2021 at 04:25 PM (#6040146)
(*) There's also at some level with some of them an urge to be free of government mandate and overreach, which not only has historical precedent -- it has noble historical precedent. Anyone who would denominate that urge as "insane" is saying far more about themselves than they are the urge.
I mean, the urge to empty one's bladder has historical precedent and is not insane, but could be rightly called insane depending on one's choice of when and where that urge is exercised. We're talking about people who are sitting on their dinner while pissing their pants as a matter of principle that nobody ought to tell them they can't. When other people at the same dinner table are telling them to get off the table and stop doing that, it's not because they disagree with their principles nor that they want to "control" people in general, as much as they don't want urine on everyone else's food and don't want to have to clean up an easily avoidable mess. And that thing you smell around the people taking a principled squat sure isn't the scent of nobility.
   13950. . Posted: September 17, 2021 at 04:52 PM (#6040149)
Sixteen to three vote against booster shots by serious FDA panel.

As I reported and opinionated earlier, entirely unlike the first go-round of vaccines, the booster shot mania strikes the objective and non-tribal observer as badly rushed and highly political and in need of significantly more scientific study and opinion. Less than two months ago, serious scientific outlets were reporting that the initial doses should last for years and really nothing about that had materially changed. And moreover, there's the very real conflict of interest and talking-their-own-book potentialities of the drug companies at least appearing to be trying to convert their initial "customers" into "subscribers." (*)

And so it is. Good on science. The full FDA rarely if ever overrules panels of this type and hence here any such overrule will be purely political and worth zilch to anyone who actually cares about science.

And so now we face the very real prospect in the next few months of government mandates of a vaccine supplement an FDA panel has soundly rejected even approving. This kind of thing is why we should all be wary of government overreach and tribal manias.

(*) And the panel noted the apparently quite real risk of myocarditis in young male third-dose recipients. Injecting an 18 year old healthy male with a third dose that poses a risk of myocarditis would be public health malpractice in its purest form. The jury is probably still out on the true scope of that risk, so I'm not to "actual malpractice" quite yet.
   13951. . Posted: September 17, 2021 at 05:08 PM (#6040153)
When other people at the same dinner table are telling them to get off the table and stop doing that, it's not because they disagree with their principles nor that they want to "control" people in general, as much as they don't want urine on everyone else's food and don't want to have to clean up an easily avoidable mess. And that thing you smell around the people taking a principled squat sure isn't the scent of nobility.


What does "other people you're eating dinner with" have to do with "the government"?
   13952. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 17, 2021 at 05:19 PM (#6040155)
13949 -- And not only that, I'm a Texan now and how dare anyone tell me who I can or cannot shoot. What's democracy for if not making stupid claims in the name of some nebulous pseudo-concept of freedom.
   13953. . Posted: September 17, 2021 at 05:19 PM (#6040156)
I'll preface this again by saying that I very willingly, happily, and trustily got Moderna rounds 1 and 2 but if you actually step back and think about it, if there was actually a serious chance that those shots would only be good for five or six months, as people appear to be saying now, it's very much an open question whether they should have gotten the original EUA in the first place. Now, realistically, given where we were with this pandemic, we were in no position to quibble and be fussy about precision and rules and they were going to be approved, but any run of the mill drug with those kind of side effects that was only effective for six months (and not really all that effective to begin with, net-net) wouldn't seem to stand much of a chance at the FDA. Maybe some late-stage cancer drugs that extended life for six months, but I don't purport to be an FDA expert.
   13954. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 17, 2021 at 05:25 PM (#6040160)

(*) There's also at some level with some of them an urge to be free of government mandate and overreach, which not only has historical precedent -- it has noble historical precedent. Anyone who would denominate that urge as "insane" is saying far more about themselves than they are the urge.

I mean, the urge to empty one's bladder has historical precedent and is not insane, but could be rightly called insane depending on one's choice of when and where that urge is exercised. We're talking about people who are sitting on their dinner while pissing their pants as a matter of principle that nobody ought to tell them they can't. When other people at the same dinner table are telling them to get off the table and stop doing that, it's not because they disagree with their principles nor that they want to "control" people in general, as much as they don't want urine on everyone else's food and don't want to have to clean up an easily avoidable mess. And that thing you smell around the people taking a principled squat sure isn't the scent of nobility.

What does "other people you're eating dinner with" have to do with "the government"?

Why did you bring up government overreach? The government hasn't been requiring vaccination except in very limited circumstances, and the refusers have been refusing since before such requirements were in place. The dinner table analogy is more apt.
   13955. . Posted: September 17, 2021 at 05:27 PM (#6040161)
Why did you bring up government overreach?


Because Biden just announced a government vaccine mandate? And because prior to that Biden and the government were strongly suggesting to private companies that they should mandate vaccines?

What -- we're pretending now the government isn't involved?

Two senior FDA members resigning because of political pressure re boosters and then this panel rejecting boosters 16-3 is where this was inevitably heading. There isn't the least bit of surprise in any of that, at least to the non-tribal among us. It's virtually as natural a law as gravity. I mean, I guess there are very talented movie critics who see things in movies not everyone sees and maybe that's a parallel. It's not that literally every governmental decision is bad, or even close -- in fact, the vast majority of administrative state decisions are pretty good. Generally speaking, the US has a very talented and intelligent and rational civil service bureaucracy. But that doesn't remotely mean all decisions are and if you know what you're looking at, you can sense where the danger zones are. This is an obvious one.
   13956. Tom Goes to the Ballpark Posted: September 17, 2021 at 05:33 PM (#6040162)
Today the FDA expert panel voted to recommend Pfizer boosters for those 65+, those a high risk of serious Covid, health care workers, and those with a high risk of occupational exposure. Depending on how you define “high risk of occupational exposure” that could be a majority of the country.
   13957. Tony S Posted: September 17, 2021 at 05:39 PM (#6040164)
Today the FDA expert panel voted to recommend Pfizer boosters for those 65+, those a high risk of serious Covid, health care workers, and those with a high risk of occupational exposure. Depending on how you define “high risk of occupational exposure” that could be a majority of the country.


Heh, just the "obesity" category will cover most Americans.
   13958. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 17, 2021 at 05:43 PM (#6040165)
As a professor in a state U in Texas, I have no doubt that I qualify.

But though this be a state of liberty, yet it is not a state of licence: though man in that state have an uncontroulable liberty to dispose of his person or possessions, yet he has not liberty to destroy himself, or so much as any creature in his possession, but where some nobler use than its bare preservation calls for it. The state of nature has a law of nature to govern it, which obliges every one: and reason, which is that law, teaches all mankind, who will but consult it, that being all equal and independent, no one ought to harm another in his life, health, liberty, or possessions


Let the antivaxxers speak once of reason, not license
   13959. . Posted: September 17, 2021 at 05:44 PM (#6040166)
Early in Friday’s meeting, Peter Marks, a top FDA official in charge of the biologics center that decides on vaccine approvals, referred to the controversy that has arisen around authorizing boosters, and asked the panel to focus on “the science,” and not “operational issues.”

“We know that there may be differing opinions as to the interpretation of the data regarding the potential need for additional doses,” Marks said. “And we strongly encourage all the different viewpoints to be voiced and discussed regarding the data, which is complex and evolving.”

“As we proceed, I would ask that we do our best to focus our deliberations on the science related to the application under consideration today and not on operational issues related to a booster campaign or on issues related to global vaccine equity. If we stray into those latter topics, the chair and I will gently bring us back into the scope of this advisory committee meeting.”


Exactly the way it should proceed. Good on them. They did hear from an Israeli public health expert who noted that hospital capacity in Israel was brought to lower challenge by booster shots, but hospital capacity has nothing to do with whether a drug is "safe and effective."

The sentiment against general issue booster shots was overwhelming. The scientists have spoken clearly. If someone wants to get one, go for it, absolutely. But you're getting an essentially unapproved drug. People do do that with drugs -- go to Mexico or Switzerland and the like to get drugs the FDA hasn't signed off on -- so it's not unprecedented. As for me, I'll probably wait until actual, scientific real FDA approval free of material political pressure and some real evidence that the benefits I got from Moderna 1 and 2 have significantly deteriorated. I pay very close attention to chemicals I put in my body and Moderna 1 and 2 were effectively taken under emergency circumstances. Others' mileage may vary.
   13960. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 17, 2021 at 05:44 PM (#6040167)
Because Biden just announced a government vaccine mandate? And because prior to that Biden and the government were strongly suggesting to private companies that they should mandate vaccines?


So the people refusing to get vaccinated for the past 5+ months were doing so to protest a mandate that wasn't in place then and actually isn't yet in place now (and which allows for regular testing if you're not vaccinated)? Very noble and sane of them.
   13961. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 17, 2021 at 05:47 PM (#6040168)
Florida's latest weekly report came out, and this last week they had the same (actually slightly more) new deaths reported. Over 350 per day, and they've now averaged 350 per day for 3 weeks. Case numbers continue to drop quickly though, so this really should be the last week of such high death reports.

I recall Florida being slow to report deaths during other peaks as well, so maybe this is just a continuation of that trend.
   13962. . Posted: September 17, 2021 at 06:20 PM (#6040173)
So the people refusing to get vaccinated for the past 5+ months were doing so to protest a mandate that wasn't in place then and actually isn't yet in place now (and which allows for regular testing if you're not vaccinated)? Very noble and sane of them.


My injunction to colleagues during litigation is that we should know the other side's defense better than they know it. It's served me well. The politics equivalent is to go out and find sources that hold positions you disagree with, read them, and then figure out exactly how and why you disagree. I'd recommend that, too. Those of us with political lives that predate the internet and especially the Tribal Internet tend to find that that process comes naturally -- but it's very much out of favor. (In politics, that is -- not in serious litigation.)

As best I can tell, the "anti-vax sentiment" comes from some combination of the following (putting aside just sheer stupidity or actual insanity and the like):

1. Muh liberty. Enough said.
2. Muh freedom. Enough said.
3. The vaccine approval process was rushed. (I would note in this vein that many serious Dem politicians, including K Harris expressed dramatic reservations about a "Trump" vaccine.)
4. The FDA hasn't actually approved the drugs (it has now with Pfizer, but that was very recent. To this day, the two vaccines I took have not been formally approved by the FDA.).
5. It's not really a vaccine in the real sense of exposing your immune system to the virus; instead it works at the cell and protein level -- with still unknown medium and long term impact.
6. More recently -- it looks like the vaccines aren't really working as advertised, now particularly with the changing targets and waning effectiveness and booster demands.
7. There's no real control group as a drug going through the FDA process would have.
8. The side effects. (The side effects of Moderna 2 were very, very real; hit everyone I know, and hit some people worse than it hit me and it hit me pretty bad.)

I haven't really bought any of this to date. With the changing goalposts and bait-and-switch re the booster shots and how long 1 and 2 would last, I'm paying much closer attention. The decision to take Moderna 1 and 2 was no decision -- it was an obvious choice to take them. It's now becoming less obvious as to 3, 4, 5, etc. We'll see how things go. I could be rushing in for 3 in a month; I may be fighting my employer six months from now on 3. My guides are the real data and the real science. I'm confident in my ability to figure them out.
   13963. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 17, 2021 at 06:47 PM (#6040175)
Alabama posted 192 deaths per Worldometer today after 76 yesterday. Even of some of that is catch-up, that's a lot of death for a state of 5M.
   13964. Lassus Posted: September 17, 2021 at 07:02 PM (#6040178)
It's hilarious scrolling up the thread and seeing "...it looks like the vaccines aren't really working as advertised..." and knowing exactly who the fuck keeps on with such garbage for like the fifth time.

8. The side effects. (The side effects of Moderna 2 were very, very real; hit everyone I know, and hit some people worse than it hit me and it hit me pretty bad.)
My wife, 49, and my in-laws, 79 and 83, all got Moderna without a peep of a side effect. That's as much evidence as you have here, so.

My guides are the real data and the real science.
OK
side effects of Moderna 2 were very, very real; hit everyone I know
Oh
   13965. . Posted: September 17, 2021 at 07:03 PM (#6040179)
Actually in my summary, I left out a biggie:

9. Natural immunity gives a previous COVID sufferer enough immunity that porting a vaccine on top of that is unnecessary, if not unhealthy. (There's actually evidence out of Israel that this is the case; Fauci was asked about it on CNN or MSNBC and punted the question.)
   13966. . Posted: September 17, 2021 at 07:05 PM (#6040180)
It's hilarious scrolling up the thread and seeing "...it looks like the vaccines aren't really working as advertised..." and knowing exactly who the #### keeps on with such garbage for like the fifth time.


They aren't really working as advertised to a not insignificant degree -- thus booster shots. But the more important point is that you've again attributed to me what I explicitly stated were things the other side was saying.(*) But I guess that's the internet.

Be non-tribal. Things will become clearer.

(*) I literally wrote that in my post, did I not?
   13967. . Posted: September 17, 2021 at 07:10 PM (#6040181)
My wife, 49, and my in-laws, 79 and 83, all got Moderna without a peep of a side effect. That's as much evidence as you have here, so.


They were extremely lucky then. Good for them. That wasn't anything like my experience, or the experience of anyone else I know. My experience was that I'm not having those side effects again for trivial benefit.

(But the more important point is that you've again attributed to me what I explicitly stated were things the other side was saying. But I guess that's the internet.)
   13968. Lassus Posted: September 17, 2021 at 08:42 PM (#6040192)
you've again attributed to me what I explicitly stated were things the other side was saying. But I guess that's the internet.

This is gold-medal level bad faith. Here is you stating "things the other side was saying":
The side effects of Moderna 2 were very, very real; hit everyone I know, and hit some people worse than it hit me and it hit me pretty bad.
So, the other side was saying how bad you and your friends and everyone you know got terrible side effects that my people were "extremely lucky" not to get? That's the other side's argument - using your words and your anecdotes - but not yours.

Christ, what a piece of work you are.
   13969. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:08 PM (#6040196)
9. Natural immunity gives a previous COVID sufferer enough immunity that porting a vaccine on top of that is unnecessary, if not unhealthy. (There's actually evidence out of Israel that this is the case; Fauci was asked about it on CNN or MSNBC and punted the question.)

Or, you know, it can give super-immunity
So who is capable of mounting this "superhuman" or "hybrid" immune response?

People who have had a "hybrid" exposure to the virus. Specifically, they were infected with the coronavirus in 2020 and then immunized with mRNA vaccines this year. "Those people have amazing responses to the vaccine," says virologist Theodora Hatziioannou at Rockefeller University, who also helped lead several of the studies. "I think they are in the best position to fight the virus. The antibodies in these people's blood can even neutralize SARS-CoV-1, the first coronavirus, which emerged 20 years ago. That virus is very, very different from SARS-CoV-2."

In fact, these antibodies were even able to deactivate a virus engineered, on purpose, to be highly resistant to neutralization. This virus contained 20 mutations that are known to prevent SARS-CoV-2 antibodies from binding to it. Antibodies from people who were only vaccinated or who only had prior coronavirus infections were essentially useless against this mutant virus. But antibodies in people with the "hybrid immunity" could neutralize it.

Link
It will be interesting to see whether the same holds true in reverse; vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine, but then contracting breakthrough COVID. I imagine those studies are underway already.
   13970. . Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:12 PM (#6040197)
No, I said the other side is saying side effects as one of nine things I listed that the other side is saying. Parenthetically, I noted that I had significant side effects as did everyone I know.

You did the same "you're saying this" thing to the one about the vaccines not working as advertised.

You seem incapable (more likely, unwilling) of engaging with a list of contra arguments to yours and saying some of them are pure garbage, some of them have a smacking of truth but are overstated and also partly false, and therefore net-net you're not persuaded. Do you ever reason yourself to a position this way? I mean, Moderna 2 has significant side effects that you have to be lucky not to get. That's just the reality of it. Should that fact alone make one an "anti-vaxxer"? No, of course not -- that's crazy.

My decision to get the first couple rounds was not even really a "decision" in any serious sense. It was automatic. I was told and believed that Moderna 2 would have bad side effects and it did. Significantly worse than expected. Both of these things can be and are true at the same time.
   13971. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:12 PM (#6040198)
63 had the moderna, side effects were insignificant, same for my 68 yo sister and her husband.

How many of those people complaining are wishing they'd just gotten the virus? they dumb as you?



   13972. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:15 PM (#6040199)
In fact, these antibodies were even able to deactivate a virus engineered, on purpose, to be highly resistant to neutralization. This virus contained 20 mutations that are known to prevent SARS-CoV-2 antibodies from binding to it. Antibodies from people who were only vaccinated or who only had prior coronavirus infections were essentially useless against this mutant virus. But antibodies in people with the "hybrid immunity" could neutralize it.

please tell me this research was conducted in wuhan, china.
   13973. 57i66135 right now is attacking rest Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:16 PM (#6040200)
How many of those people complaining are wishing they'd just gotten the virus? they dumb as you?
clearly, not enough of them.
   13974. . Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:17 PM (#6040201)
How many of those people complaining are wishing they'd just gotten the virus? they dumb as you?


Yeah, Blomberg -- they're all saying they'd have rather got Covid than the side effects. That's exactly what they're saying. In fact, that's what I'm saying!!!! I'd have rather had Covid than Moderna!!!!

You got it. You're a smart feller.
   13975. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:24 PM (#6040204)
The side effects of Moderna 2 were very, very real; hit everyone I know, and hit some people worse than it hit me and it hit me pretty bad.

Small sample size, but of the 10 or 12 people I know who got the two Moderna shots, two of them were out of commission for about 36 hours, and after that their symptoms all disappeared. Everyone else, myself included, had a (very) slightly tender arm that was gone within a day, and no other side effects. FTR I'm 77, and everyone else I know who got Moderna is between about 35 and 80.
   13976. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:28 PM (#6040206)
My sister and her husband got Moderna. She was sick as a dog for about 3 days after shot one; nothing after shot two. Her husband didn't experience anything after either of his shots.
   13977. Lassus Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:38 PM (#6040208)
I mean, Moderna 2 has significant side effects that you have to be lucky not to get. That's just the reality of it.

This must be the real data and real science you were talking about. Just cite where you got it and I'll be on my way.
   13978. Tony S Posted: September 17, 2021 at 09:59 PM (#6040210)
I got Moderna, all three times. I'm in my late fifties. Each time I dealt with 24-36 hours of sluggishness and lethargy, and the sore arm lingered on another day or two. Not pleasant but not debilitating. The third round was a bit more intense, but still lifted quickly after the second day.

I have an 83-year-old tenant/housemate. Three Pfizers, zero side effects all three times. Bastid.
   13979. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: September 17, 2021 at 10:13 PM (#6040213)
don't feed the troll.
   13980. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 17, 2021 at 10:15 PM (#6040214)
Florida averaged 352 reported deaths per day this past week, basically the same as last week, even though cases declined another 25% and are only half what they were at the peak. That reporting lag is persistent, and probably means the IFR on the latest batch of cases is worse than I had originally estimated, perhaps as a result of overcrowded hospitals. Hard to say without the raw data they used to provide.

They might pass NY in a couple of weeks, although it will take longer for them to pass on a per capita basis.
   13981. nick swisher hygiene Posted: September 17, 2021 at 10:23 PM (#6040215)
Look, y’all, the fact is that Mr. Period just has a more nuanced, sophisticated understanding of the vaccine question than you do. He’s done more research, weighed more factors, looked at all sides of the question. You gotta give it up for him! (If he’d stop posting, it might almost be worth it..)
   13982. Tony S Posted: September 17, 2021 at 10:27 PM (#6040216)
Maryland has not had a great week -- 8767 new cases over the last seven days, way up from 6982 the previous week, a bit up from 8488 the week before. There might be some holiday-weekend under-reporting in the middle there.

That said, I would hope that the effects from Labor Day and the new school year have made their mark by now. I guess we'll see what happens next week. The far west and the eastern shore remain the worst hotspots.
   13983. baxter Posted: September 17, 2021 at 10:57 PM (#6040220)
What type of test determines whether one has had COVID in the past? Does being vaccinated affect the outcome/accuracy of the test?

I thought I had COVID last year before I got vaccinated; never got tested, just quarantined, rested and recovered.
   13984. Mike A Posted: September 17, 2021 at 11:17 PM (#6040223)
So, speaking of the South, my Governor Brian Kemp said this today:

"...That's basically how the AIDS vaccine works. People wouldn't take it early on cause it was mandated. They started educating people and now it's doing a lot of good out there."

This is now several times he's spoken out against vaccine mandates because of what happened with the (non-existent) AIDS vaccine. The only thought is Kemp is somehow conflating the HPV vaccine with a HIV vaccine. But no one seems to have corrected him on this point. Remember this is the guy who figured out COVID asymptomatic transmission a month after everyone else.

And now Kemp's asking for 'good ideas' to stop the Georgia COVID spread. So where is this Idaho place again?
   13985. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 17, 2021 at 11:29 PM (#6040225)

What type of test determines whether one has had COVID in the past? Does being vaccinated affect the outcome/accuracy of the test?


You could take an antibody test. There are different tests that detect antibodies from infection vs. vaccination so you'd have to make sure you were taking the right one. Depending on how long ago you had COVID, the antibodies might not show up on the test anymore, so testing negative wouldn't mean you'd never been infected, I think.
   13986. SoSH U at work Posted: September 18, 2021 at 12:07 AM (#6040236)
You could take an antibody test. There are different tests that detect antibodies from infection vs. vaccination so you'd have to make sure you were taking the right one. Depending on how long ago you had COVID, the antibodies might not show up on the test anymore, so testing negative wouldn't mean you'd never been infected, I think.


That was my experience with Red Cross antibody testing. I tested positive twice last year for antibodies after giving blood. The third time I gave blood, it came back some degree of inconclusive.
   13987. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 18, 2021 at 02:38 AM (#6040246)
15 July CDC info on vaccination and antibody tests here

If you test positive
A positive antibody test result shows you may have antibodies from a previous infection or from vaccination for the virus that causes COVID-19.
Some antibodies made for the virus that causes COVID-19 provide protection from getting infected. CDC is evaluating antibody protection and how long protection from antibodies might last. Cases of reinfection and infection after vaccination have been reported, but remain rare. But getting vaccinated, even if you have already had COVID-19, can help your body make more of these antibodies.
You may test positive for antibodies even if you have never had symptoms of COVID-19 or have not yet received a COVID-19 vaccine. This can happen if you had an infection without symptoms, which is called an asymptomatic infection.
Sometimes a person can test positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies when they do not actually have those specific antibodies. This is called a false positive.
Talk with your healthcare professional about your test result and the type of test you took to understand what your result means. Your healthcare professional may suggest you take a second type of antibody test to see if the first test was accurate.

If you test negative
You may not have COVID-19 antibodies. This could be because you have not had an infection with the virus that causes COVID-19 or have not received a COVID-19 vaccine.
Antibody testing is not currently recommended to determine if you are immune to COVID-19 following COVID-19 vaccination.
Some antibody tests will only detect antibodies from infection, not from vaccination with the virus that causes COVID-19.
You could have a current infection, been recently infected, or been recently vaccinated. It typically takes 1 to 3 weeks after infection or vaccination for your body to make antibodies. If you are infected, you may get sick and spread the virus before you develop antibodies.
Some people may take even longer to develop antibodies, and a small portion of people who are infected or vaccinated may never develop antibodies.
Sometimes people test negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies when they have those specific antibodies. This is called a false negative.
Talk with your healthcare professional about your test result and the type of test you took to understand what your result means.
   13988. . Posted: September 18, 2021 at 06:32 AM (#6040248)
This must be the real data and real science you were talking about. Just cite where you got it and I'll be on my way.


I've already "cited" my experience, and others have said the same thing. Nothing lasted, and I never said they did, but it put me out of commission for around 36 hours and my fever got into the 101s.(*) Couldn't work, felt like I got hit by a truck. That was other colleagues' experiences also. That's the body's immune system reacting as intended, of course, so technically and pedantically I suppose if it will make you happy it could be called not even "side effects" but instead "the impact of the vaccine." Supposedly the flip side isn't necessarily true -- i.e., that if you don't have these "side effects" it doesn't necessarily mean your body *isn't* engaging in an effective immune response. Color me skeptical on the latter point, but it really isn't worth a discussion. Obviously being able to tell yourself during the 36 hours that "this is happening because your immune system is strong and the vaccine is working on it" can help get you through pretty easily. Still not something I'd do again for trivial benefit.

Here's a representative article if you insist:

Artilce


(*) A work colleague's got into the 103s.
   13989. . Posted: September 18, 2021 at 06:33 AM (#6040249)
Look, y’all, the fact is that Mr. Period just has a more nuanced, sophisticated understanding of the vaccine question than you do. He’s done more research, weighed more factors, looked at all sides of the question.


Beats the needy support group echo chamber, that's for sure. Try it sometime. It's healthier.

But it is kind of hilarious that things like research and exploring relevant factors and all sides of questions have now been morphed into support group subjects of ridicule.(*) Stay strident, my friend.

(*) "Hey, everyone -- look over there at the guy who's interested in what other people think. What a LOSER!!!!!!"
   13990. Lassus Posted: September 18, 2021 at 10:49 AM (#6040261)
My guides are the real science and the real data
Supposedly the flip side isn't necessarily true -- i.e., that if you don't have these "side effects" it doesn't necessarily mean your body *isn't* engaging in an effective immune response. Color me skeptical on the latter point, but it really isn't worth a discussion.


You're a dishonest hack. Your statement that it was rare and lucky NOT to get side effects from Moderna was dishonest hackery. Your attempt to counter that I said Moderna had no side effects, as opposed to the fact that being lucky NOT to get them was false (what I actually said) is dishonest hackery. You touting science and data as your proving ground is dishonest hackery when, as above, you show clearly don't give a shit what science says about the lack of side effects.

The people who know you in real life know you're a dishonest hack. I'm sure you think otherwise. You're wrong.
   13991. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 18, 2021 at 11:21 AM (#6040265)
Is it controversial to say that the vaccines have side effects? No. My side effects were as advertised, maybe a bit more intense than I expected but gone within 36 hours (I got J&J, not Moderna). Likely a lot better than getting COVID, and certainly a lot better than transmitting it to my elderly contacts.

Is any of this germane to the discussion at hand? No.

SBB likes to twist arguments in irrelevant directions; because of his history people often take the bait and argue with him rather than simply ignoring him or saying “Yes, but so what?” I’m sometimes guilty of this as well. But in this case it’s transparently obvious.
   13992. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 18, 2021 at 01:14 PM (#6040276)
Southern Baptist Convention now requires coronavirus vaccines for new missionaries

And the band played The World Turned Upside Down
   13993. Tony S Posted: September 19, 2021 at 08:52 AM (#6040390)
Southern Baptist Convention now requires coronavirus vaccines for new missionaries


The shape of the pushback will be interesting. The "but muh freedom" argument doesn't usually apply to church authority, obedience to which is seen (among that crowd) as the ultimate virtue.
   13994. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 19, 2021 at 12:00 PM (#6040398)
A spoke3sman for the National Association of Religious Broadcasters, a Southern Baptist, was fired for advocating vaccination four weeks ago.
   13995. . Posted: September 19, 2021 at 12:25 PM (#6040402)
Only in the era of post-2014 tribalist echo chambers could the obvious and widespread existence of Moderna 2 side effects become "dishonest hackery." It's not merely that there is this widespread existence of side effects; it's also that, as Fauci and others have explained, the product essentially works by getting the body to respond through said side effects.

Just a very strange set of affairs.

And for those who are actually interested in actual news and data, the CDC announced yesterday that Moderna's efficacy in preventing hospitalization has waned a mere one percentage point after four months. Pfizer's has waned considerably more -- 14%. That's obviously a "relevant" factor in all this.
   13996. Tony S Posted: September 19, 2021 at 01:17 PM (#6040404)
A Montana county health official wrote an inflammatory column in a local online publication.

The column featured incendiary assertions like these:

I think medicine in general struggles to explain complex subjects in a media environment where only sound bites are heard and only a few characters are read. Nuance and long explanations are difficult. So I want to be clear with my patients in my community: The COVID-19 vaccines are incredibly SAFE and are incredibly EFFECTIVE. If you have not gotten vaccinated yet, do not wait, GO GET VACCINATED.


He closed with the worst kind of unhinged propaganda:

I want to say to my community again, clearly, with no hesitation or wavering: The mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are safe and are effective. They will help keep you from getting severe COVID, they will help keep you out of the hospital if you get COVID, and they will help reduce your chances of getting sick in the first place. If you have not gotten vaccinated, I urge you to get vaccinated now.


Fortunately, the good people of Montana have been rescued from the wild rantings of this radical. He has been forced to resign from his post.

Alaska and Idaho have implemented death panels. It's a pretty fair guess who's next.



   13997. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2021 at 02:07 PM (#6040406)
I mean, Moderna 2 has significant side effects that you have to be lucky not to get. That's just the reality of it.
The CDC's website shows systemic reactions (i.e., not localized to the injection site) as being 72% or 82% (depending on age group) with a placebo being 30% or 40%. That indicates half the people had no systemic reaction to the second shot. I'm not going to parse what it means to be "lucky", but it appears fewer than 50% of those getting the 2nd shot had anything worse than a mild headache as a result of the shot.

They also break down the results by severity, and 10-15% of people had "Grade 3" or worse symptoms, generally the types of symptoms that "prevent daily activity" (not just make it much less pleasant, but pretty much knock you off your feet for a day and in bad cases require medical intervention). Definitely nothing to sneeze at, so if you were in that 10-15% you might be quite hesitant to take it again.
   13998. . Posted: September 19, 2021 at 02:48 PM (#6040413)
I was in the 10-15%. (No need for medical intervention, knocked completely off feet, unable to really even function, fever in the 101s.) My immediate direct report was in the 10-15%. Three people who work for me directly were in the 10-15%. I personally know of no one who got Moderna 2 who was not in the 10-15%. I do take the testimony of people here, as well as the percentages you cited, as valid. It appears as though my sample is not fully representative, but at the end it doesn't really matter, particularly given the fact that the way the vaccine works is by prompting the bodily reaction that generates these side effects.

And you hit on it in your last sentence. Going through that every six months because my current immunity/protection has waned by a handful of percentage points from its current "extremely high" is a non-starter. (As of now, it essentially hasn't waned at all; for Pfizer it has.) Expecting people to do that is a non-starter. It's moot anyway because the FDA hasn't even evaluated Moderna 3 yet, much less approved it. It's also the case that the more and more the emergency wanes, the less and less I'm going to personally rubber stamp an FDA EUA. That doesn't remotely mean I wouldn't do it, nothing close to that, but it does mean that circumstances have changed pretty significantly since April. We'll see where events go.

I take the FDA 16-3 nuke of mainstream Pfizer 3 Friday as the "true, non-political, scientific" baseline. Any quick deviation from that will rightly be seen as per se political.
   13999. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 19, 2021 at 02:50 PM (#6040414)

If the grade 3 side effect hits 10-15% of all takers, they're the definition of unlucky.

And as Dave asked above, since when is vaccines have side effects news? Shingles, tetanus, rabies, flu.

but, yes, Troll.
   14000. . Posted: September 19, 2021 at 02:59 PM (#6040415)
Rabies, lol.

Sure thing, Ronald. Whatever you say.

The claim above was that Lassus's people had not a "peep" of side effects. It wasn't that they had side effects short of grade 3, you abject doltish idiot.

And as Dave asked above, since when is vaccines have side effects news?


Since you and Lassus misleadingly pretended they didn't exist, for utterly inexplicable (*) purposes.

(*) Well, not really inexplicable. Anyone with a working brain knows why you did that. You were probably lying anyway, which is even weirder -- but it doesn't really matter whether you were or not. It's perfectly clear why you carry on in this way.
Page 140 of 141 pages ‹ First  < 138 139 140 141 > 

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
rr
for his generous support.

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Page rendered in 1.1079 seconds
48 querie(s) executed