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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 12714 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   201. Howie Menckel Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:53 AM (#5946540)
New York State Daily COVID-19 Death Toll, truncated version of post 197

April 9 - 799, the high

April 16 - 630

April 23 - 422

April 30 - 289
   202. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:53 AM (#5946541)
But I saw this week that the 25,000 to 60,000 flu deaths is an estimate, including lots of unexplained pneumonia and extrapolating even from that based on excess deaths and demographic factors to correct for the many people who never got tested, and the number of CONFIRMED flu deaths (to be compared to the 60,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths so far, and the further 60,000 to come in May and so on) has not been more than 15,000 in any of the last 6 years, and usually a lot less than that.


That is an excellent point. I saw that too. Comparing COVID deaths with flu deaths is terribly misleading.
   203. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:54 AM (#5946542)
This week, a nurse at Kings County – mythologic in her presence there for the last 30 years – died. So did a much-loved ICU doctor, also at King’s. At a few other hospitals around the city, more health care workers have passed away and one medicine attending—who has always been such a pleasure to work with—is on ECMO and I can’t imagine he’s going to make it. All of these deaths were caused by COVID19.

Tonight, a friend and colleague told me that an ER doctor in the city, who he has known since residency days, died by suicide. A 24 year old EMT did as well. Their deaths were caused by COVID-19, too.

I’m thinking back to something I wrote in the first week of these logs. “We’ll lose colleagues to this virus. Both to illness and possibly to moral injury later. I worry about everyone’s mental health.”

We’ve already gotten to ‘later.’ Later is now.
link
   204. Random Transaction Generator Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:54 AM (#5946543)
#190 posted what I was going to link (about flu deaths being MUCH lower than what everyone quotes).

If you knew that ~70,000 people died in 3 months from Covid19, but only 15,000 people died in 12 months from the flu, would you continue to use the flu as a comparison going forward?
   205. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:55 AM (#5946544)
What good does knowing if your odd of dying from COVID are 0.1% or 0.3% or 0.5% do? You didn't know what your odds of dying this year were before this started. Does it really matter if they've gone up 10%, 25%, or 50%?

All these odds are unknowable anyway, beyond an actuarial, large sample size average. You engage in risky behavior every day without knowing or calculating the odds.

Providing people with a false sense of precision does nothing to aid rational decision making.


It allows me - the individual - to make an informed decision and it DOES matter to me if my chances of dying rise appreciably. What's more - you're also assuming that I'm going to make the decision based on aggregate numbers. There are some early reports - by no means well-tested out - that, for example certain blood types might be more susceptible. Even if that's bunk - we'll certainly come to understand more about not just generic "underlying health conditions", but certain other elements that might mean the difference between a 10% larger chance of dying and a 50% larger chance of dying. We'll know it not just individually, but for purposes of friends, family, etc.

What you are suggesting is hideously totalitarian.

Someone else - with a very narrow and predetermined lens of criteria and prime movers - should make the decision for me because I might choose to take actions that at odds with that someone else's very narrow predetermination of what's best?

My lord. I'm trying VERY hard here not to OTP things, but I cannot help but notice that the parellels.

I'll even use this as my source

Cinematic though it may be -- the scene in episode 1 of Chernobyl as the party apparatchiks meet to discuss what to do and tell people about the explosion....

An elder of the committee, brilliantly played by Donald Sumpter, rises and tells the gathering, “When the people ask questions that are not in their own best interests, they should keep their minds on their labor and leave matters of the state to the state.” At the conclusion of his speech, he implores the men to seal the exits of the city and to have faith in Soviet socialism. For this, the committee rewards him with a standing ovation.


   206. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:55 AM (#5946545)
What does "actually reversing the curve until we have a vaccine" mean?

"Reversing the curve" must mean making it look like a bell curve, like one that starts at zero and then goes down to zero. Instead of one that stopped going on but stays flat forever.

What we are doing now is creating a plateau but not going to bring the curve down to zero because we aren't actually isolating people (we are sending people home to be with their families), we are barely doing contact tracing and we aren't doing widespread testing of health people to get a clear picture of where people can feel safe and where people can't. As a public health person I was telling people 6 weeks ago we are doing the shutdown temporarily until we can do those things and then start opening places up. Time keeps wasting. The technology for widespread testing may be delayed for technical reasons but there's no excuse for the other two.
   207. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5946546)
I'm all for providing the best risk mitigation advice we have that's consistent with a functioning society. I see no need to fixate on the exact odds of someone dying (which we won't ever know) or the total eventual death toll.


At this point there's no real point to even things like the daily governor's briefings with a bunch of numbers that don't really mean anything. It's time to move to the next phase.

He's talking about consigning hundreds of thousands to death, and how it would be easier to do if we weren't entirely sure exactly how many there would be. Yes, I find that disconcerting.


The vast majority of that disconcert stems from the fact that for this public policy decision and this public policy decision alone, you've decided to go with the verb grammatical construction, "consigning to death." That's a choice, not a mandate.

For a 30 YO who gets it and does not die, the disease will cut 10-15 years off their lifespan. When the next thing comes around, they now have the dreaded underlying condition.


Oh, stop it. Many people, 30 year olds and otherwise, get it and have no symptoms whatsoever. A bunch of people get it, have symptoms, and no lasting issues. The "everyone has 10-15 years cut off their lives" is just bullshit. Get it together. We need you.
   208. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5946547)
You know, this is the one reason I don't like posting under my real name. On this entire page, there is only one poster's real last name mentioned - and it's someone making a nasty comment about me, when I haven't even participated in the thread.

It's not a nasty comment, sir. Sorry if it came off that way. I'm still peeved that you said I'm not from Louisville, which is obviously an odd thing to be concerned about.
   209. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:00 PM (#5946548)
I take it that snapper has no response to those four articles I called to his attention in #177 and #178. Just to refresh his memory, here are the headlines without the previously provided links:

States Made It Harder to Get Jobless Benefits. Now That’s Hard to Undo. Systems that were devised to treat each case as potentially fraudulent are now rushing to deal with millions of newly unemployed people.

Socialism for investors, capitalism for everyone else. With the Federal Reserve backstopping risky corporate debt, the U.S. economy has made itself thoroughly addicted to cheap credit and government rescues

Meatpackers Welcome Trump Order; Others Question Virus Risks

Trump push to keep meatpacking plants open comes as pork producers profit from China trade deal


From that last article:

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump’s executive order this week requiring American meatpacking plants to stay open during the coronavirus pandemic is raising new questions about the United States’ massive meat exports, particularly the export of pork to China.

Trump’s order was meant to prevent what meat processors have claimed is an imminent breakdown in the nation’s food supply chain, resulting from the closure of several major meat processing plants that had become hotbeds for coronavirus infections. The president invoked the Defense Production Act, a law intended for wartime usage, to designate the meatpacking industry as part of the nation’s “critical infrastructure.”

Since it was signed late Tuesday, the order has drawn outcry from workers rights activists and effusive praise from the meat industry. Unions said it gave plant owners a green light to ignore worker safety if it interferes with a plant’s ability to stay open and avoid liability if workers get sick or die.

“These are essential workers, they’re not sacrificial lambs,” said Stuart Appelbaum, president of the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union, which represents between 10,000 to 15,000 poultry workers in the South and Midwest. He said states are now stripped of the power to close a plant for deep cleaning, a move that helps stop the spread and keeps workers safe.

“People should know when they are going to work, they are working in a safe environment. You have to prioritize the American people, not the product,” he said. ...


In the event that snapper has me on Ignore, maybe someone else might copy those two previous comments along with the links, since they obviously speak to the questions that we've been discussing.
   210. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:01 PM (#5946550)
No one serious is going to buy the "oops, all that stuff we told you about flu deaths -- forget about it." And if it's true that the CDC was BSing everyone about flu deaths -- they weren't but we can go with it -- their credibility in re anything COVID is necessarily shot.
   211. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:04 PM (#5946551)
It allows me - the individual - to make an informed decision and it DOES matter to me if my chances of dying rise appreciably. What's more - you're also assuming that I'm going to make the decision based on aggregate numbers. There are some early reports - by no means well-tested out - that, for example certain blood types might be more susceptible. Even if that's bunk - we'll certainly come to understand more about not just generic "underlying health conditions", but certain other elements that might mean the difference between a 10% larger chance of dying and a 50% larger chance of dying. We'll know it not just individually, but for purposes of friends, family, etc.

What you are suggesting is hideously totalitarian.

Someone else - with a very narrow and predetermined lens of criteria and prime movers - should make the decision for me because I might choose to take actions that at odds with that someone else's very narrow predetermination of what's best?

My lord. I'm trying VERY hard here not to OTP things, but I cannot help but notice that the parellels.


Sorry, these are collective decisions; like in a war. I see no moral right to protect oneself at all costs while asking meat-packers, and grocery workers, and delivery men, and cops, and EMTs, and medical professionals, to expose themselves daily for your benefit.

The lock down is far more totalitarian that making collective decisions that will lead to casualties without sharing the details.
   212. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:05 PM (#5946552)
At this point, it's hard to even make a rational argument that there's an actual "emergency" afoot, and I hope people start challenging the powers exercised by sole officials upon healthy people under the guise that there is. The only real "emergency" was early-on when knowledge was scarse and at the time when hospital capacity was seriously threatened. Now, no. It's a very serious situation, but in no serious sense is it an "emergency."

I won't go so far as to use the word "fascism" as Elon Musk did, but the powers need to be taken away.
   213. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:06 PM (#5946553)
In the event that snapper has me on Ignore, maybe someone else might copy those two previous comments along with the links, since they obviously speak to the questions that we've been discussing.

What point are you making? I'm advocating for shared risk. We all go back to work (shopping, eating out, etc.), not just the meat-packers. Exceptions for the elderly and others at very high risk granted.
   214. bob gee Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:07 PM (#5946554)
200: There are times when the stock market acts unusual because of the participants involved.

One example: Some company was at 10 when the year started. It has been slowly going down for the whole year, and everyone knows the stock or industry is in trouble and likely to go bankrupt. It's down to about $1 or so. The stock announces bankruptcy (and we'll assume it's 99% certain), opens the next day at 30c or so - and then over the next few days, goes up to $1, or $2, or even $3. The likelihood of bankruptcy hasn't changed. But all the people who were short at $10, 9, etc. cover since the news happened - and why hold out for the last 5%? It bounces. Then lots of others - either speculators waiting for the bounce, or people who don't know that the stock will eventually be worth 0 - jump in. It pushes it up hard that day, which brings in more gamblers. And it bounces.
   215. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:08 PM (#5946555)
I'm advocating for shared risk. We all go back to work, not just the meat-packers.

You're advocating for increasing the risk, not just to me but also to those meat-packers. That's the way a virus works.
   216. Hot Wheeling American Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:11 PM (#5946558)
If you knew that ~70,000 people died in 3 months from Covid19, but only 15,000 people died in 12 months from the flu, would you continue to use the flu as a comparison going forward?

My man...you've got to remember to think like a troll.
   217. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:11 PM (#5946559)
If it's too dangerous for civilian meat-packers, put national guard or active military in the plants. They have to operate; there's essentially no choice. You could probably cut a bit of capacity, but that's it.
   218. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:12 PM (#5946560)
Sorry, these are collective decisions; like in a war. I see no moral right to protect oneself at all costs while asking meat-packers, and grocery workers, and delivery men, and cops, and EMTs, and medical professionals, to expose themselves daily for your benefit.

The lock down is far more totalitarian that making collective decisions that will lead to casualties without sharing the details.


Why do you assume I'm asking anything to DO anything?

I explicitly said I haven't the faintest clue what the best decision regarding SIP is.

I'm talking solely and exclusively about your statement about hiding information.

I actually want meat-packers, grocery workers, delivery men, cops, EMTs and medical professionals to have the same data I want. I want them to at bare minimum - be able to make the same decision in their own contexts.

This isn't mere goalpost moving - it's complete and utter goalpost inversion... You're the one suggesting data not be made available in case they decide maybe that 10 bucks an hour isn't enough to go into the meat-packing plant or run a cash register.
   219. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:12 PM (#5946561)
What we are doing now is creating a plateau but not going to bring the curve down to zero because we aren't actually isolating people (we are sending them home to be with their families), we aren't doing contact tracing and we aren't doing widespread testing of health people to get a clear picture of where people can feel safe and where people can't. As a public health person I was telling people 6 weeks ago we are doing the shutdown temporarily until we can do those things and then start opening places up. Time keeps wasting. The technology for widespread testing may be delayed for technical reasons but there's no excuse for the other two.

okay, let's take this point by point:

'bring the curve down to zero' -- will never happen. it would require a successfully implemented (can i stop right there?) worldwide (how about here?) effort to ensure that there is no trace of the virus anywhere, in order to guarantee that it will not just spark up again. and even then, there's so much waste from this thing around the world, that even in this best case scenario, it would only be a matter of time before some anarchists (terrorists, cia, huge chavez) weaponize it, and start this whole thing up all over again.

'contact tracing' -- we're too far gone for that right now. it would have been effective near the start of this outbreak; and it can be effective again, if we get the transmission rates down, but right now, it's as far off as packing stadiums for minor league baseball games.

'where people can feel safe' -- this is the wrong mentality to have. people cannot fall back into the habit of 'feeling safe'. they need to take active precautions, possibly for the rest of their lives. washing their hands repeatedly throughout the day; wearing face masks in public (...if you're white); no nosepicking, or yawning, or sneezing, or coughing; calling out sick from work. these are not things that can go "back to normal".
   220. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:14 PM (#5946562)
it would only be a matter of time before some entity (terrorists, cia, huge chavez) weaponized it, and start this whole thing up all over again.

This is a poor argument, because it's only a matter of time before we have a vaccine.

'contact tracing' -- we're too far gone for that right now.

Nope, not when we have 25% unemployment.
   221. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:15 PM (#5946563)
You're advocating for increasing the risk, not just to me but also to those meat-packers. That's the way a virus works.

Short-term, but not in aggregate. Again, a vaccine is two years away, if it ever comes. Everyone is going to be exposed. Best to do it in a controlled manner so as not to overwhelm medical resources, and not to destroy the economy.

A phased approach with distancing/mask/disinfection protocols in place will produce no more total COVID deaths than a six month lock down followed by a re-opening. The later will cause more total deaths because of the economic distress.
   222. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:15 PM (#5946564)
I explicitly said I haven't the faintest clue what the best decision regarding SIP is.


You've just indicted SIP massively, then. If it's not blatantly obvious that SIP is the right decision, it's not.
   223. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:15 PM (#5946565)
What point are you making? I'm advocating for shared risk. We all go back to work (shopping, eating out, etc.), not just the meat-packers. Exceptions for the elderly and others at very high risk granted.


What mechanism are you imagining here? Because if the idea is you're going to tell people in their 30s and 40s that they have to eat in a restaurant and go to a mall at least once a week, that damn sure sounds totalitarian - a weird brand of totalitarianism to be sure, but totalitarianism nevertheless. And if that's NOT your idea, how are you going to get around the fact that most people approve of current shut-down restrictions and may well choose to continue to follow them even in the absence of being told they have to? Letting people open their restaurants doesn't actually help the economy if nobody is going to go to them anyway.
   224. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:16 PM (#5946566)
Short-term, but not in aggregate. Again, a vaccine is two years away, if it ever comes. Everyone is going to be exposed. Best to do it in a controlled manner so as not to overwhelm medical resources, and not to destroy the economy.
THIS!! THIS IS THE CONTROLLED MANNER!!!!!!!!

what in the actual literal #### are you?
   225. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:17 PM (#5946567)
The best data would be what's really going on in Belarus. Under the premises of strict lockdown types, it should be nearing charnel house status by now. Is it? Sure doesn't seem to be.
   226. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:17 PM (#5946568)
Why do you assume I'm asking anything to DO anything?

I explicitly said I haven't the faintest clue what the best decision regarding SIP is.

I'm talking solely and exclusively about your statement about hiding information.

I actually want meat-packers, grocery workers, delivery men, cops, EMTs and medical professionals to have the same data I want. I want them to at bare minimum - be able to make the same decision in their own contexts.

This isn't mere goalpost moving - it's complete and utter goalpost inversion... You're the one suggesting data not be made available in case they decide maybe that 10 bucks an hour isn't enough to go into the meat-packing plant or run a cash register.


If information is speculative, of dubious accuracy, and likely to cause panic, rather than rational decision making, the Gov't has no obligation to share it.

What if all the food workers decide to go home? Are we willing to allow famine in the cause of "informed" decision making?

   227. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:19 PM (#5946569)
And if it's true that the CDC was BSing everyone about flu deaths


They weren't. They were reporting flu deaths in a responsible way, estimating them based on logic to arrive at their best guess. With COVID, it is only confirmed cases being cited*. So the comparisons are not apt. We know there are far, far more COVID deaths than the official confirmed cases, just like we know there are and were far, far more flu deaths than the official confirmed cases. And yet people, for whatever reason, continue to insist on comparing confirmed COVID deaths with estimated flu deaths.

*And sometimes not even that many. If a non-permanent resident dies of COVID in Florida, it is not reported as a COVID death. And Florida I am sure leads the nation in non-permanent residents.
   228. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:19 PM (#5946570)
THIS!! THIS IS THE CONTROLLED MANNER!!!!!!!!

No, no it's not. 25% of the workforce in unemployed. That's not controlled. It's not sustainable, and in the long-run will do more damage than COVID.
   229. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:19 PM (#5946571)
If information is speculative, of dubious accuracy, and likely to cause panic, rather than rational decision making, the Gov't has no obligation to share it.

What if all the food workers decide to go home? Are we willing to allow famine in the cause of "informed" decision making?


Sigh.

“When the people ask questions that are not in their own best interests, they should keep their minds on their labor and leave matters of the state to the state.”
   230. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:19 PM (#5946572)
THIS IS THE CONTROLLED MANNER!!!!!!!!

On this we agree.

not to destroy the economy.

The lockdown isn't destroying the economy. In fact, it's trying to save the economy. There are plenty of graphs floating around the Internet showing how dinner reservations, for example, collapsed ahead of the lockdown. The longer we draw this out, the worse off the economy is.
   231. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:20 PM (#5946573)
Andy, please stop baiting snapper. It's tedious and unseemly. Stop trying to get this thread shut down.
   232. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:20 PM (#5946574)
The market's rationality or irrationality is beside the point unless the point is that what the market measures is the paramount value for the society as a whole. Some of us do not accept that premise, though, yes, a full discussion takes us away from covid.
   233. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:20 PM (#5946575)
Nope, not when we have 25% unemployment.
well, if we can hire and train 100,000 people by the fall, then yeah, contact tracing may be a viable option at that point.

now: try to sell that idea to mitch mcconnell.
   234. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:20 PM (#5946576)
Because if the idea is you're going to tell people in their 30s and 40s that they have to eat in a restaurant and go to a mall at least once a week, that damn sure sounds totalitarian - a weird brand of totalitarianism to be sure, but totalitarianism nevertheless.


How can anyone possibly interpret what he's saying to be ... this? Going back to work means the restaurants are allowed to open again, with sensible restrictions. If no one wants to go back to them, then that's their choice and at that point they'll go out of business. But they won't be put out of business by whimsical and arbitrary government fiat. Big, huge, massive difference.

But I'll let snapper speak for himself on it. I certainly wouldn't support anything like forced shopping, forced restaurant attendance and the like.
   235. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:21 PM (#5946577)
With COVID, it is only confirmed cases being cited*.


No, it's not.

We know there are far, far more COVID deaths than the official confirmed cases, just like we know there are and were far, far more flu deaths than the official confirmed cases.


No, we don't.

And yet people, for whatever reason, continue to insist on comparing confirmed COVID deaths with estimated flu deaths.


No one has done this. People have tried to place COVID in the context of other fatal contagious diseases, and within the mechanisms and premises of public policy decision-making around other fatal contagious diseases. That's it.
   236. philphan Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:24 PM (#5946580)
OK, enough of these unimportant questions like how many people should die and how little people should know. The more important questions are:
1. Do Zonk and Crispix owe me Cokes when I posted that SciAm piece in the dead thread, or are Cokes thread-limited?
2. I have seen several photos of guys doing video meetings or reports (including a reporter with Good Morning America) while not wearing pants. But where the heck is Smitty in all of this?
   237. Ron J Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:24 PM (#5946581)
Snapper, I'll take you slightly seriously when you (and others advocating this type of approach) actually share in the risk.

Right now you are very much in "rich man's war, poor man's fight" territory.
   238. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:25 PM (#5946582)
now: try to sell that idea to mitch mcconnell.

Yeah. I would say the states could train that people on their own, but it's clear states are running into resource constraints.

There are two really frustrating aspects to this. One is the lack of will to address this directly, and that's a direct product of some weird political motivations. The second is this weird idea that the economy will be rainbows and butterflies if everyone just blindly trusts Donald Trump's judgment about whether it's safe to go to a baseball game.
   239. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:25 PM (#5946583)
No, no it's not. 25% of the workforce in unemployed. That's not controlled. It's not sustainable, and in the long-run will do more damage than COVID.


Are you going to force people to go to movies, restaurants, shopping malls, get on planes? Because if not, opening up will improve that 25% by very little.
   240. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:25 PM (#5946584)
What mechanism are you imagining here? Because if the idea is you're going to tell people in their 30s and 40s that they have to eat in a restaurant and go to a mall at least once a week, that damn sure sounds totalitarian - a weird brand of totalitarianism to be sure, but totalitarianism nevertheless. And if that's NOT your idea, how are you going to get around the fact that most people approve of current shut-down restrictions and may well choose to continue to follow them even in the absence of being told they have to? Letting people open their restaurants doesn't actually help the economy if nobody is going to go to them anyway.

Of course not. I'm just for ending the blanket restrictions, and putting in place sensible rules so businesses can re-open with risk mitigation.

Book stores have been closed. With masks and hand sanitizers the risk there is near zero. Likewise any hard goods.

Construction has been stopped. Again, with masks, workers can spread out just fine and do their job at 80% to 90% efficiency.
   241. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:25 PM (#5946585)
1. Do Zonk and Crispix owe me Cokes when I posted that SciAm piece in the dead thread, or are Cokes thread-limited?


Coke touchlessly sent :-)

I missed it.
   242. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:26 PM (#5946586)
Belarus is an interesting test case, but it too will be difficult to analyze.

"Belarusians, who in large part are well informed reading independent online outlets and social media, have started to implement social distancing across the country.
In Minsk, the metro feels empty, hand sanitisers are everywhere and a lot of restaurants are closed. In Vitebsk, too."

The government is also apparently conducting some contact tracing (!), according to an April 21 WHO release, which also mentions that the country was just entering the "community transmission phase."
   243. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:27 PM (#5946587)
I'm just for ending the blanket restrictions, and putting in place sensible rules so businesses can re-open with risk mitigation.

Oh, you're for a lot more than just that.
   244. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:27 PM (#5946588)
No, no it's not. 25% of the workforce in unemployed. That's not controlled. It's not sustainable, and in the long-run will do more damage than COVID.
speaking of sustainable:

here's a fun little graph for all of the coal diggers and oil humpers around here.
   245. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:27 PM (#5946589)
Snapper, I'll take you slightly seriously when you (and others advocating this type of approach) actually share in the risk.

Right now you are very much in "rich man's war, poor man's fight" territory.


Well the Governor of NY won't let me. I'd show up to work tomorrow if asked, I'd go out to dinner.

We're currently in "rich man's war, poor man's fight", 100%. The people required to work and take risks are predominantly working class. The professional class is sitting fat and happy at home. My approach makes that less true.
   246. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:28 PM (#5946590)
speaking of sustainable:

here's a fun little graph for all of you coal diggers and oil humpers.


Is there a point? That's a symptom of the economic devastation going on.
   247. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:29 PM (#5946591)
Book stores have been closed. With masks and hand sanitizers the risk there is near zero. Likewise any hard goods.

Construction has been stopped. Again, with masks, workers can spread out just fine and do their job at 80% to 90% efficiency.
Right now you are very much in "rich man's war, poor man's fight" territory.
spot on.
   248. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:29 PM (#5946592)
Of course not. I'm just for ending the blanket restrictions, and putting in place sensible rules so businesses can re-open with risk mitigation.


And hiding data.

Back off that, and while we may not agree on the other specifics about restriction lifting and the exacting definitions of sensible rules - I can live with it regardless.

I am perfectly willing to accept least bad options. I just oppose trying to find an even worse one.
   249. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:29 PM (#5946593)
Belarus is an interesting test case, but it too will be difficult to analyze.


Right, but at this point, if lockdown theory was really accurate, there would be bodies strewn in streets, mass graves, crematoria, etc. That dog doesn't seem to be remotely barking.
   250. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:30 PM (#5946595)
Is there a point? That's a symptom of the economic devastation going on.
the increasing demand for renewable energy is a symptom of economic devastation?
   251. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:30 PM (#5946596)
We're currently in "rich man's war, poor man's fight", 100%. The people required to work and take risks are predominantly working class. The professional class is sitting fat and happy at home. My approach makes that less true.

Your approach will kill more of the working class. Lots and lots more.
   252. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:31 PM (#5946598)
We're currently in "rich man's war, poor man's fight", 100%. The people required to work and take risks are predominantly working class. The professional class is sitting fat and happy at home.


They continue to be completely oblivious to that obvious truth. It's not just working class; it's thousands of small-business owners outside the favored rent-seeking business class.
   253. JL72 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:33 PM (#5946600)
putting in place sensible rules so businesses can re-open with risk mitigation.


How can that be done if the data is being hidden?
   254. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:34 PM (#5946601)
I suppose we could just hide economic data.
   255. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:34 PM (#5946602)
How can that be done if the data is being hidden?
first, we need to create the data by ensuring that as many people as possible are put in danger.

then, if we don't like the data, we can ignore it.
   256. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:35 PM (#5946603)
Belarus has 10 million people. If COVID mortality is 0.5%, and 7 million catch it to create herd immunity, it's 35,000 bodies. I cannot guess how easy or difficult it would be for "Europe's last dictatorship" to minimize devastation on that scale.

Belarus may never lock down, but it's possible (likely?) that citizens are already taking precautions that they did not take in Italy and Spain and NYC in the critical early days of the spread of the disease. Who knows.

It's good news if the country does not get overrun. Still seems early, however.
   257. Ron J Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:36 PM (#5946604)
Snapper, there's no reason you couldn't volunteer at a retirement home. Or work at Amazon. Both are desperate for people.
   258. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:37 PM (#5946605)
Right, but at this point, if lockdown theory was really accurate, there would be bodies strewn in streets, mass graves, crematoria, etc. That dog doesn't seem to be remotely barking.


Perhaps not, if the country didn't receive a 'lethal dose' of COVID until April. And like Brazil, it appears that the people might be enforcing their own mitigation strategies, despite the defiant inactivity of dear leader.

Naturally if Belarus never has a big problem, it's a huge point in favor of "COVID ain't that bad," along with Japan.
   259. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:38 PM (#5946606)
Belarus has 10 million people. If COVID mortality is 0.5%, and 7 million catch it to create herd immunity, it's 35,000 bodies. I cannot guess how easy or difficult it would be for "Europe's last dictatorship" to minimize devastation on that scale.


The NYT just ran a long story on Belarus with the obvious ability to walk around and talk to citizens. No hints whatever of that kind of devastation. I'd commend the story to subscribers, and you can probably get it even without subscribing.

Belarus may never lock down, but it's possible (likely?) that citizens are already taking precautions that they did not take in Italy and Spain and NYC in the critical early days of the spread of the disease. Who knows.


Yes, exactly -- and people here would have taken similar precautions, and will if we ease the lockdowns. Kind of the point here.

It's good news if the country does not get overrun. Still seems early, however.


Not really sure it is that early, but it's a flexible term.
   260. Ron J Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:40 PM (#5946607)
#258 I will point out that Japan just extended their state of emergency.
   261. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:43 PM (#5946610)
If COVID mortality is 0.5%,


Sorry, Fish, I missed this one. I think we'd all agree that avid lockdownians would insist -- and have insisted on these here threads -- that the mortality rate is at least double 0.5$. So we'd be taking about something like 75 to 150 thousand deaths in Belarus.
   262. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:46 PM (#5946612)
"lockdown theory"? What's the theory? I mean, reducing the amount of contact between people reduces the spread of things between people. I don't know what else to say.

The unpredictability of where outbreak is spreading may indicate that it depends on "superspreader events" rather than each person having a similar likelihood of spreading the virus. Unfortunately we don't know which people might be superspreaders personally. We do know that big crowded events are guaranteed to have spread. Aside from nursing homes and hospitals the spread is happening in clusters, in places where people are still forced to be in crowded indoor areas. Prisons and warehouses and meatpacking plants. If we hadn't shut down big public events do you know how many more clusters there would be? At this point I do think we can say that trying to avoid all contact is overboard.

Even though Belarus is still having soccer matches fan turnout is something like 10% of what it normally is (based on this article from 3 weeks ago in stadiums that were already far from full. Plenty of distancing there.
   263. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:48 PM (#5946613)
The unpredictability of where outbreak is spreading may indicate that it depends on "superspreader events" rather than each person having a similar likelihood of spreading the virus. Unfortunately we don't know which people might be superspreaders personally. We do know that big crowded events are guaranteed to have spread. Aside from nursing homes and hospitals the spread is happening in clusters, in places where people are still forced to be in crowded indoor areas. Prisons and warehouses and meatpacking plants. If we hadn't shut down big public events do you know how many more clusters there would be? At this point I do think we can say that trying to avoid all contact is overboard.
and churches.
   264. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5946614)
Andy, please stop baiting snapper. It's tedious and unseemly. Stop trying to get this thread shut down.

I wasn't trying to bait snapper or anyone. Note that I haven't even responded to him. But the articles I linked to all raise points that are absolutely central to the crisis we're in, and they involve fundamental questions of ethics every bit as much as they involve trying to adjudicate among conflicting projections as to when it's safe to re-open.

Personally I'm lucky in that my wife and I can shop at a well stocked and uncrowded grocery store, and that we can easily distance ourselves pretty much 24/7. I do think, however, that it's a bit unseemly for anyone to be forced to work in conditions where it's demonstrably risky, such as in certain meat packing plants. It's doubly unseemly for the same government that would order them to return to work would at the same time try to shelter the plant owners from any subsequent liability. And it's triply unseemly for states to try to deny unemployment benefits for those workers who choose not to risk their lives until the risk issues have been much more seriously addressed.

I don't think any of the above represents any kind of an attempt to shut down any thread.
   265. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5946617)
Prisons and warehouses and meatpacking plants. If we hadn't shut down big public events do you know how many more clusters there would be? At this point I do think we can say that trying to avoid all contact is overboard.


Sweden and Japan and Belarus have prisons, nursing homes, warehouses, meatpacking plants (*), and churches.

(*) One of Belarus's claims to be "Perfection in all ways." Beef sausages with prunes aren't really my thing, but hey -- that's me.
   266. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5946618)
I cannot guess how easy or difficult it would be for "Europe's last dictatorship" to minimize devastation on that scale.

Belarus may never lock down,


or maybe the lockdown is effectively baked into your description of White Russia?
   267. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5946619)
I do think, however, that it's a bit unseemly for anyone to be forced to work in conditions where it's demonstrably risky, such as in certain meat packing plants. It's doubly unseemly for the same government that would order them to return to work would at the same time try to shelter the plant owners from any subsequent liability. And it's triply unseemly for states to try to deny unemployment benefits for those workers who choose not to risk their lives until the risk issues have been much more seriously addressed.
"tragedy is when i cut my finger; comedy is when you fall down a sewer and die"
   268. Karl from NY Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:56 PM (#5946621)
Mask wearing was, as far as I could tell, universal. I didn't see an employee or worker without one, at least inside the store.
An employer can mandate mask wearing on their private premises, both for workers and customers, even if the state or local government isn't currently doing so.
   269. Karl from NY Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:58 PM (#5946624)
The LIRR (Long Island Railroad) at its furthest point is about 120 miles from NYC.
Tiny nitpick, Montauk is 120 miles from Penn Station in Manhattan - not strictly speaking from NYC which would be measured from the Queens border.
   270. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5946625)
Snapper, there's no reason you couldn't volunteer at a retirement home. Or work at Amazon. Both are desperate for people.

I have a job, and am still working full-time.

And hiding data.

Back off that, and while we may not agree on the other specifics about restriction lifting and the exacting definitions of sensible rules - I can live with it regardless.

I am perfectly willing to accept least bad options. I just oppose trying to find an even worse one.


Hiding data if it serves no useful purpose but to inflame fears. Not data on "do X, don't do Y". If the best estimate of mortality changes from 0.2% +/- 0.1% to 0.3% +/- 0.2%, that's not useful to anyone in making real life decisions.

The media loves it's disaster porn; it's good for ratings. No need to fuel it.

Personally I'm lucky in that my wife and I can shop at a well stocked and uncrowded grocery store, and that we can easily distance ourselves pretty much 24/7. I do think, however, that it's a bit unseemly for anyone to be forced to work in conditions where it's demonstrably risky, such as in certain meat packing plants. It's doubly unseemly for the same government that would order them to return to work would at the same time try to shelter the plant owners from any subsequent liability. And it's triply unseemly for states to try to deny unemployment benefits for those workers who choose not to risk their lives until the risk issues have been much more seriously addressed.

Do you not see the inherent connection between you being able to shop and people working in the food supply chain? If everyone who works in food supply can collect $1000 a week sitting home, we'll all starve.

   271. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:02 PM (#5946626)
Andy's in his social security drawing years and still hasn't figured out that food doesn't make itself.
   272. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:07 PM (#5946628)
Hiding data if it serves no useful purpose but to inflame fears. Not data on "do X, don't do Y".


A determination you want to make based on your own exceedingly vague and narrowly focused perceptions about consequences - not backed up with data that I've seen yet.

I suppose you'll probably need at least a committee to make this determination of what data serves no useful purpose but to inflame fears.

You'll need a name for it.

You could call a "soviet".
   273. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:11 PM (#5946630)
The media loves it's disaster porn; it's good for ratings. No need to fuel it.


And they love us all trapped inside, bored out of our minds, far better-placed to consume their product.
   274. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:12 PM (#5946631)
A determination you want to make based on your own exceedingly vague and narrowly focused perceptions about consequences - not backed up with data that I've seen yet.

I suppose you'll probably need at least a committee to make this determination of what data serves no useful purpose but to inflame fears.

You'll need a name for it.

You could call a "soviet".


You never answered my question. How is selective release of information totalitarian, and forcing people to shutter their businesses, churches, and remain in their homes, and not be allowed to assemble not 10 times more so?

The rights to free exercise of religion, assembly, movement, and commerce have been trampled, and you're worried about the (non-existent) right to have all the infomation the Gov't possesses, regardless of its reliability.
   275. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:15 PM (#5946632)
If the best estimate of mortality changes from 0.2% +/- 0.1% to 0.3% +/- 0.2%, that's not useful to anyone in making real life decisions.

This precisely describes why millions of people stopped smoking. It also captures the rise of seat belts.

And to be clear the IFR for diabetics over the age of 60 is not 0.2% to 0.3%.

That also doesn't get to the fact that you're simultaneously speaking in terms of collective decisions and quantifying the impacts at the individual level. A 0.1% increase in the IFR means you're sentencing ~200,000 people to their deaths for a theoretical improvement in the economy. No, that's not a decision that should be left to a faceless bureaucrat.
   276. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:15 PM (#5946634)
If the best estimate of mortality changes from 0.2% +/- 0.1% to 0.3% +/- 0.2%, that's not useful to anyone in making real life decisions.


The best estimate of mortality from COVID-19 is somewhere between 1% and 3.5%. Yes, that's a huge range, but it also falls entirely outside of your imaginary numbers. If you want to judge the rationality of the actions of people and government, you should at least be honest about what they're reacting to.
   277. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:17 PM (#5946637)
The best estimate of mortality from COVID-19 is somewhere between 1% and 3.5%.


And, again, no - this is not true. Every antibody testing effort shows otherwise. There's a verrry slim chance that the final mortality rate might look something like 1%, but even then it would be counting a bunch of deaths that are really health system breakdown deaths like in Bergamo. There's literally zero chance it's 3.5% and continuing to cite that as a serious possibility is a fear-causing disservice.
   278. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5946639)
This precisely describes why millions of people stopped smoking.
anyone else remember when republicans flipped their shits over various governments banning smoking in restaurants? oh, and trans fats. and gays. so many things that those people flip their shits over. there's never an end to it.
It also captures the rise of seat belts.
that one's ralph nader.
That also doesn't get to the fact that you're simultaneously speaking in terms of collective decisions and quantifying the impacts at the individual level. A 0.1% increase in the IFR means you're sentencing ~200,000 people to their deaths for a theoretical improvement in the economy. No, that's not a decision that should be left to a faceless bureaucrat.
how about an orange-faced politician?
   279. Lassus Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5946641)
Is the stock market irrational?

Do you mean other than every 10 minutes?
   280. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:24 PM (#5946642)
--
   281. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:24 PM (#5946643)
The best estimate of mortality from COVID-19 is somewhere between 1% and 3.5%. Yes, that's a huge range, but it also falls entirely outside of your imaginary numbers. If you want to judge the rationality of the actions of people and government, you should at least be honest about what they're reacting to.

Across the entire population? No one believes that. I've been seeing IFRs in the 0.1 to 0.7% range, and not everyone will get infected. The deaths rates for the younger, healthier people who should be resuming activity will obviously be lower than the average.
   282. Lassus Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5946644)
207. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5946546)
A bunch of people get it, have symptoms, and no lasting issues.

See? Why aren't you people listening to the experts, like this guy?
   283. Zonk Can Sell Culture Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:27 PM (#5946645)
You never answered my question. How is selective release of information totalitarian, and forcing people to shutter their businesses, churches, and remain in their homes, and not be allowed to assemble not 10 times more so?

The rights to free exercise of religion, assembly, movement, and commerce have been trampled, and you're worried about the (non-existent) right to have all the infomation the Gov't possesses, regardless of its reliability.


You keep wanting to talk about something other than your data sharing ideas. If you want to argue that SIPs and lockdowns were wrong/bad/whatever from any direction, have at it - I'm not interested in participating because as I've said now three times, I don't know the answer. I know there are multiple competing concepts that need to be weighed to arrive at the best answer - but I don't make any claim to knowing what that best answer is.

In any case -

The only question I saw that you previously asked me was:

What if all the food workers decide to go home? Are we willing to allow famine in the cause of "informed" decision making?


I'll admit, I did not answer - but my answer is pretty straight-forward... Offer them more money or some sort of other benefit to entice them to do their own cost/benefit analysis and decide to undertake the risk. Hell, I've helped butcher livestock before in my younger days... I'm sure the skills of prepping for a hog roast don't readily translate to industrial level meatpacking, but there's a number where I'd I'd take a second job on the cutting floor. It's an extraordinarily high number, but it's certainly a number that exists.

My sole and only north star in this entire discussion is that I do not want anyone else - and now, increasingly least of all YOU making the determination for me (and multiple "me" by everybody else) as to what I need to know and what I am capable of synthesizing to make my own, individual determinations.

Sell your Best Interests Collectivism elsewhere. I want no part of it.
   284. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:30 PM (#5946646)
Across the entire population? No one believes that. I've been seeing IFRs in the 0.1 to 0.7% range, and not everyone will get infected.


I don't know what to tell you. Confirmed COVID deaths in New York City are already 0.15% of the population - not of those infected; of the entire population. That number's going to go up as people are still dying and doesn't include excess mortality that would increase that by 50-100%. Antibody testing suggests no more than a quarter and possibly as low as 10-15% of NYC have gotten it.

And what's your basis for "not everyone will get infected"? If you're thinking of asymptomatic cases, then you're double-counting that when you try to lower the mortality rate from observed values. If you're not thinking of that, is there any evidence that a meaningful share of the population has some natural immunity to the disease? I sure haven't seen anything like that.
   285. Lassus Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:31 PM (#5946647)
The media loves it's disaster porn; it's good for ratings. No need to fuel it.

This insanity of the omnipotent, all-controlling MEDIA is never-ending.

PEOPLE love disaster porn. People IN THIS THREAD love disaster porn. People watching horror movies, AIRPORT '75, KING KONG all loved disaster porn. You are not being manipulated by something that runs on your own likes and dislikes.
   286. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:40 PM (#5946650)
   287. JL72 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:40 PM (#5946651)
If the best estimate of mortality changes from 0.2% +/- 0.1% to 0.3% +/- 0.2%, that's not useful to anyone in making real life decisions.


So who gets to make those decisions? Because this seems like a pretty dangerous road to heading down.

And I still don't understand how folks are supposed to make proper decisions to mitigate risk if the data about that risk is kept hidden.
   288. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:41 PM (#5946652)

"Belarusians, who in large part are well informed reading independent online outlets and social media, have started to implement social distancing across the country.
In Minsk, the metro feels empty, hand sanitisers are everywhere and a lot of restaurants are closed. In Vitebsk, too."


From Procopius' account of the pandemic in Constantinople, 542:

During that time it seemed no easy thing to see any man in the streets of Byzantium, but all who had the good fortune to be in health were sitting in their houses, either attending the sick or mourning the dead. And if one did succeed in meeting a man going out, he was carrying one of the dead. And work of every description ceased, and all the trades were abandoned by the artisans, and all other work as well, such as each had in hand. Indeed in a city which was simply abounding in all good things starvation almost absolute was running riot. Certainly it seemed a difficult and very notable thing to have a sufficiency of bread or of anything else; so that with some of the sick it appeared that the end of life came about sooner than it should have come by reason of the lack of the necessities of life.

And, to put all in a word, it was not possible to see a single man in Byzantium clad in the chlamys, and especially when the emperor became ill (for he too had a swelling of the groin), but in a city which held dominion over the whole Roman empire every man was wearing clothes befitting private station and remaining quietly at home. Such was the course of the pestilence in the Roman empire at large as well as in Byzantium. And it fell also upon the land of the Persians and visited all the other barbarians besides.


When it's bad, people will social distance on their own, even without a lockdown order.
   289. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:43 PM (#5946654)
And what's your basis for "not everyone will get infected"?


Snapper can speak for himself, but the answer is: The well-known principles of herd immunity.

There's also no reason one would project current (vastly overstated) mortality rates to the future given the fact that we've barely begun to develop treatments. Even if it's 1% now -- it isn't, but we can go with it -- that doesn't mean it will stay 1%.

This will violate rr's meta rule pretty badly, but we're sort of at the point where the primary board faction is literally taking and making every single assumption (*) in the direction of the worst possible place. When that happens, it's usually not because that's the most sensible approach, but because they want to do that.

(*) Oh, Arizona's badly understating their deaths, it could be 20X that; antibody studies mean NYC could be as low as 10%; the mortality rate could be as high as 3.5%; every 30 year old who gets it will have his life expectancy shortened by 10-15 years; the scientists who did the antibody studies are all biased or corrupt. The list just goes on virtually endlessly. Talk about DISASTER PORN!! It's here every day. It's a yearning at this point.
   290. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:45 PM (#5946655)

So who gets to make those decisions? Because this seems like a pretty dangerous road to heading down.


Our elected officials, across Federal, State and Municipal Gov't.
   291. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:46 PM (#5946657)
There's no data being "hidden" but in any event, no, we don't always just release and obsess over "the data." We don't release a bunch of IQ data and then sit around obsessing about it, because we don't want a bunch of racists misusing it. Though obviously misplaced fear isn't as bad as racism, the principle is the same.
   292. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:47 PM (#5946658)
PEOPLE love disaster porn. People IN THIS THREAD love disaster porn.

Correct. 100%. The media loves it because the people love it and will tune in.

There's a huge contingent of humans that relishes being in dramatic and dangerous times, as long as they are safe in their living rooms.
   293. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:47 PM (#5946659)
When it's bad, people will social distance on their own, even without a lockdown order.


Indeed. A lot of the unhappiness about relaxing the lockdown orders is from small businesses who would rather be ordered to shut down (force majeure, maybe get out of paying rent) than allowed to open and then not have enough business anyway. And from employees who won't be able to collect unemployment anymore if their jobs reappear but they don't want to go to work because the job is now too unsafe, without tips or without sales commissions.

And now we get back to "politics". Can't avoid it.
   294. Srul Itza Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:49 PM (#5946660)
If you're under about 45 and otherwise in good health -- no hypertension, no obesity, no diabetes, e.g.
. . .you are in a dwindling majority. Roughly 40% of all Americans over 20 are obese.
   295. "bothsidesism" word 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:49 PM (#5946661)
Our elected officials, across Federal, State and Municipal Gov't.
yes, i too can't wait for january 2021, when president jane lynch nationalizes the entire american health care industry by executive order.
   296. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:51 PM (#5946662)
Roughly 40% of all Americans over 20 are obese.


All indications from "THE DATA!!!" (TM) are that this thing is especially harsh to obese people. At least in NYC. The numbers are staggering.
   297. pikepredator Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:54 PM (#5946664)
Offer them more money or some sort of other benefit to entice them to do their own cost/benefit analysis and decide to undertake the risk.


This is what I've been thinking. It seems like protecting employers from liability if their workers get sick is being explored . . . not so sure about the protections and incentives for the workers themselves. "Hazard" pay, such as it is, may not be enough as these are non-typical hazards about which I think we agree there isn't enough data to make a risk assessment that doesn't have rather large error bars.

If the goal is to avoid widespread famine, and the risks to the workers who could prevent that famine are higher than usual, I would think capitalism would reward them for that in the guise of increased wages/life/disability insurance, etc. I agree that we have to have people in those jobs working, but that they are certainly working in conditions that are more dangerous than they were pre-COVID.

Rather than pay them $1,000/month or whatever to stay home, let's pay them extra to go to work, since they are vital to our survival.
   298. Ron J Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:55 PM (#5946665)
294 He's offering a variation of the "no real people will be harmed" argument. And ignores data from (for instance but not limited to) NYC MTA employees.

I get why people ignore it -- doesn't line up with their preferred narrative. But it's a random sample of non elderly people and the death rate is not tiny.
   299. Ron J Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:56 PM (#5946666)
Sigh. I think I'll have to step out of the thread for a while. I'm pretty clearly not helping the atmosphere here.
   300. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5946667)
The NYT just ran a long story on Belarus with the obvious ability to walk around and talk to citizens. No hints whatever of that kind of devastation. I'd commend the story to subscribers, and you can probably get it even without subscribing.


Oh, I'm aware. My point is that it's still possible that there's an oncoming Belarusian holocaust. They appear not to have been much touched by the virus during the entirety of March, and while common sense self-motivated social distancing would not be able to prevent mass death, it could slow it considerably.

Just ran a touch of math - all numbers made up of course - but if Belarus had 200 COVID patients on April 1, with an R0 of 2.5, the entire country would basically be swamped by mid-June, but deaths (with 2 week lag) wouldn't hit the hundred-per-day mark (ie not even Sweden levels yet) until late May (assuming CFR of 1.5% now).

If self-motivated social distancing can shrink the R0 to 1.6, then the country does not get swamped until late August, and deaths wouldn't hit the hundred-per-day mark until July.

So it's entirely plausible that Belarus is going to get ruined, and just hasn't yet.
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