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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 14266 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   301. Captain Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5946668)
I would totally go to see a sporting event at an empty stadium. I think it's a great idea.
   302. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5946669)
The NYT just ran a long story on Belarus with the obvious ability to walk around and talk to citizens. No hints whatever of that kind of devastation. I'd commend the story to subscribers, and you can probably get it even without subscribing.


Oh, I'm aware. My point is that it's still possible that there's an oncoming Belarusian holocaust. They appear not to have been much touched by the virus during the entirety of March, and while common sense self-motivated social distancing would not be able to prevent mass death, it could slow it considerably.

Just ran a touch of math - all numbers made up of course - but if Belarus had 200 COVID patients on April 1, with an R0 of 2.5, the entire country would basically be swamped by mid-June, but deaths (with 2 week lag) wouldn't hit the hundred-per-day mark (ie not even Sweden levels yet) until late May (assuming CFR of 1.5% now).

If self-motivated social distancing can shrink the R0 to 1.6, then the country does not get swamped until late August, and deaths wouldn't hit the hundred-per-day mark until July.

So it's entirely plausible that Belarus is going to get ruined, and just hasn't yet.

edit > going to rejigger numbers after looking up some Worldometers data
   303. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:03 PM (#5946671)
Talking about "the death rate" is just impossible. It depends entirely on age and other risk factors. It seems like the death rate is a lot higher in men for example. Is this independent of men having higher risk factors? Is this related to men with mild disease not going to the doctor, another known phenomenon? Deaths are easy to keep track of (though not immediately, it takes time). But what's the denominator?

And our knowledge of the death rate, or any rate, depends on who is being sampled. Because testing is being prioritized for this or that purpose, I don't know if any truly random testing has been done at all.

It seems like protecting employers from liability if their workers get sick is being explored . . . not so sure about the protections and incentives for the workers themselves.


I too have heard about Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump's priorities.

If the goal is to avoid widespread famine, and the risks to the workers who could prevent that famine are higher than usual, I would think capitalism would reward them for that in the guise of increased wages/life/disability insurance, etc. I agree that we have to have people in those jobs working, but that they are certainly working in conditions that are more dangerous than they were pre-COVID.


Wage increases are happening all over as employers try to keep people in jobs. Sheetz raised wages by $3 an hour over a month ago. Making it so people aren't afraid to go to the doctor for financial reasons... that's a much bigger ask.


   304. JimMusComp likes Billy Eppler.... Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:05 PM (#5946672)
As an Orange County NY* resident, I always say that "Upstate New York" begins at the sign that says "Welcome to Yonkers". - RMc
I grew up in Rockland. For us, upstate began at Harriman State Park. - Srul


I grew up in Port Jervis, NY. Family owned a restaurant in Sparrowbush called Scully's....

Left when I was 8 or 9 when the restaurant was solid, but still visited a lot - grandparents were there until they passed around 2010...
   305. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:08 PM (#5946673)
Worldometers has 163 total COVID cases in Belarus on April 1. Let's pretend there were 25x this many. So 4,075.

At R0 of 2.5, Belarus would still only be experiencing slightly less than 100 deaths per day right now. Deaths would reach an unavoidably prominent level (say 300 per day) in just a couple weeks.
At R0 of 1.6, Belarus would be experiencing less than 50 deaths per day. Deaths reach unavoidably prominent level in the second week of June.

They are currently reporting 5 deaths per day. Doubtful about that. But, you get the point.
   306. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:09 PM (#5946674)
Why is there eternal debate about "upstate New York", but not a similar level of scrutiny on what constitutes "Pennsyltucky"?
   307. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:10 PM (#5946675)


All indications from "THE DATA!!!" (TM) are that this thing is especially harsh to obese people. At least in NYC. The numbers are staggering.


Can you please provide this data? Of obese people who test positive for the disease, what percentage die?
   308. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:11 PM (#5946676)
Late returning here. Is Belarus the new Sweden? Because

Country  deaths/M   cases/M    tests/M
Sweden     263        2131      11
,833
Norway      39        1433      31.835
Denmark     79        1608      35.655
Germany     79        1952      30.400 


is a big bet on an uncertain future if all lives matter.

(data from Worldometers)
   309. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:13 PM (#5946678)
Alternatively, perhaps the dictator is correct, and all we need to combat COVID are vodka and ice hockey and hot saunas. I could get into that.
   310. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:14 PM (#5946679)


Why is there eternal debate about "upstate New York", but not a similar level of scrutiny on what constitutes "Pennsyltucky"?
because everything outside of philly and pittsburgh is "pennsytucky".
   311. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:16 PM (#5946680)
Immune function may also explain the sex-based differences in COVID-19 deaths. While men and women have roughly similar rates of COVID-19 infection, more men are dying from the disease in every country. In China, where the virus originated, 64 percent of the dead were men. In Italy, 63 percent of coronavirus deaths have been among men. Though American data is still being gathered, in New York City, the epicenter of the North American outbreak, men made up 55 percent of known COVID-19 hospitalizations but 62 percent of fatalities as of April 3.

link
   312. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:18 PM (#5946682)
Worldometers has 163 total COVID cases in Belarus on April 1. Let's pretend there were 25x this many. So 4,075.


Way too low. Using the antibody studies (*), they probably had an infection rate of at least 10% on April 1. That's a million cases. Five percent is 500,000. One percent -- way too low -- is 100,000.

The population density of Belarus is nearly double Sweden's. Minsk has double the population of Stockholm.

(*) The Bonn study was announced April 9, which means it probably did testing sometime on or before April 1. The phenomenon of huge understatement of cases based on antibody testing was established at least a/o April 1.
   313. base ball chick Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:18 PM (#5946683)
snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 12:25 PM (#5946584)

What mechanism are you imagining here? Because if the idea is you're going to tell people in their 30s and 40s that they have to eat in a restaurant and go to a mall at least once a week, that damn sure sounds totalitarian - a weird brand of totalitarianism to be sure, but totalitarianism nevertheless. And if that's NOT your idea, how are you going to get around the fact that most people approve of current shut-down restrictions and may well choose to continue to follow them even in the absence of being told they have to? Letting people open their restaurants doesn't actually help the economy if nobody is going to go to them anyway.

Of course not. I'm just for ending the blanket restrictions, and putting in place sensible rules so businesses can re-open with risk mitigation.

Book stores have been closed. With masks and hand sanitizers the risk there is near zero. Likewise any hard goods


- in mask news here in yewstin

the county judgte has ordered that everyoner over age 10 has to wear a mask. the gov and the cops say that people who don't do not ridk getting arrested, fined or thrown out. a lot of employees are wearing the mask only over their mouth, which defeats the entire purpose of it. i see a bunch of the anti-vaxxer/take mah gunz from mah cold dead body crowd refusing to wear masks - they got a right to infect and kill as many people as they dammm please

i also notice that almost no Black people, ESPECIALLY the females and elderly, are not wearing masks. some Black males are afraid that wearing masks gonna get them gunned down by cops and they got a point

- some strip club opened up last night claiming to be a restaurant because they serve food during the "entertainment" who i bet are not wearing masks, just like the drooling, panting clients

someone clue me in pls

why are people on tv not wearing pants? i mean, whaaaaa?
   314. Zonk demands an audit of your post Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:20 PM (#5946685)
So who gets to make those decisions? Because this seems like a pretty dangerous road to heading down.


Our elected officials, across Federal, State and Municipal Gov't.


At risk of contradicting my own self - because I’m agnostic about how a reopening should work - you realize your own contradiction here, right?

The idea that “our elected officials should make the decision”... but only so long as that decision meets your preference on both sides of open/don’t open and share data/don’t share data...
   315. Zonk demands an audit of your post Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:23 PM (#5946686)
Look, bbc...

Masks or pants... you can’t have both :-)
   316. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:25 PM (#5946688)
Way too low. Using the antibody studies (*), they probably had an infection rate of at least 10% on April 1. That's a million cases. Five percent is 500,000. One percent -- way too low -- is 100,000.

(*) The Bonn study was announced April 9, which means it probably did testing sometime on or before April 1. The phenomenon of huge understatement of cases based on antibody testing was established at least a/o April 1.


Germany and Belarus are different countries, right? What am I missing here?
   317. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:28 PM (#5946689)
Germany and Belarus are different countries, right? What am I missing here?


They are indeed. I'm not sure you're missing anything. You just back-of-the-enveloped an April 1 case number that's almost certainly far too low and I tried to explain why. One percent is an extremely conservative infection rate a/o April 1, and that's 100,000 cases. For Belarus to have had only 4000-ish cases then, it would have to have been essentially hermetically sealed from the world.



   318. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:29 PM (#5946690)
I'll remind that I live within driving distance of NYC in a place that has nearly 0% COVID. 14 positive cases, 34,000 people. Even if we apply the upper bound of the discredited Stanford study, 85x, it's at 3%. On May 1.
   319. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:33 PM (#5946693)

Just ran a touch of math - all numbers made up of course - but if Belarus had 200 COVID patients on April 1, with an R0 of 2.5, the entire country would basically be swamped by mid-June, but deaths (with 2 week lag) wouldn't hit the hundred-per-day mark (ie not even Sweden levels yet) until late May (assuming CFR of 1.5% now).

Right, PF. Certain people still seem not to grasp how exponential growth works. If you start with 200 cases, and it doubles every week, then after a month you only have 3,200 cases, and after 2 months you have 50-100k cases, but after 3 months you have 1.6 million cases.
   320. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:36 PM (#5946694)
i also notice that almost no Black people, ESPECIALLY the females and elderly, are not wearing masks.

the first people i saw around here wearing masks were black women.

truly, you are the best of us.
   321. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:38 PM (#5946695)
Right, PF. Certain people still seem not to grasp how exponential growth works. If you start with 200 cases, and it doubles every week, then after a month you only have 3,200 cases, and after 2 months you have 51,200 cases, but after 3 months you have 1.6 million cases.


It's not the principles of exponential growth that are the problem, it's the assumption that Belarus had only 200 cases on April 1. We're back into the inference, question begging phase again. You're searching out a "solution" to the Belarus conundrum rather than just analyzing it straightforwardly. Yes, it could be that for some inexplicable reason -- it's twice as dense as Sweden; it's largest city is twice as large as Sweden; there were no real travel restrictions that we know of (*)-- it just had way fewer cases than its neighbors. Just seems highly unlikely.

(*) Belarus/China visa-free agreement comes into force ... August 12, 2018.

   322. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:38 PM (#5946696)
Why is there eternal debate about "upstate New York", but not a similar level of scrutiny on what constitutes "Pennsyltucky"?


We can talk about how far south you have to go in Florida before you are no longer in "The South."
   323. Mike A Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:42 PM (#5946697)

We can talk about how far south you have to go in Florida before you are no longer in "The South."
As a North Floridian, I would go with Ocala as the tipping point.
   324. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:44 PM (#5946699)
Personally I'm lucky in that my wife and I can shop at a well stocked and uncrowded grocery store, and that we can easily distance ourselves pretty much 24/7. I do think, however, that it's a bit unseemly for anyone to be forced to work in conditions where it's demonstrably risky, such as in certain meat packing plants. It's doubly unseemly for the same government that would order them to return to work would at the same time try to shelter the plant owners from any subsequent liability. And it's triply unseemly for states to try to deny unemployment benefits for those workers who choose not to risk their lives until the risk issues have been much more seriously addressed.

Do you not see the inherent connection between you being able to shop and people working in the food supply chain? If everyone who works in food supply can collect $1000 a week sitting home, we'll all starve.


Unlike the workers at the meat plants, the workers at the grocery store we shop at (Trader Joe's) aren't being dragooned by your president into showing up, no matter what the working conditions. Here's an interview with an employee at one of their New York stores, and FTR the one we shop at in Maryland is far less crowded with much shorter lines, and distancing is strictly enforced. Plus masks are now required for everyone, both employees and customers.

I'm a Trader Joe's employee working during the pandemic in New York. Here's what I wish shoppers would do differently.
   325. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:46 PM (#5946700)
it's the assumption that Belarus had only 200 cases on April 1.


I changed to 4,000 in comment #305 after I realized the 200 assumption was impossibly low.

If they had 1 million infected, then they are probably underreporting deaths by 50:1. But who knows.

In reality, we have no idea of the real number. The WHO has no idea. Nobody in Belarus has any idea.

My refrain in all of this is that we just don't know. Could Belarus have .1% infected even while Germany has 10% infected? Yes. Could Belarus have a .2% death rate while Lombary has a 4% death rate, for unaccountable reasons? Yes. Fog of war. Does Belarus teach us anything? Not really, no, not yet.
   326. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5946701)
Lockdownism has reached the probably inevitable point where it can't really be falsified. And at that point we leave the realm of "science" altogether and get back into the inevitable realm of politics.
   327. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5946702)

They are indeed. I'm not sure you're missing anything. You just back-of-the-enveloped an April 1 case number that's almost certainly far too low and I tried to explain why. One percent is an extremely conservative infection rate a/o April 1, and that's 100,000 cases. For Belarus to have had only 4000-ish cases then, it would have to have been essentially hermetically sealed from the world.

Belarus has very limited tourism and trade. ~100,000 tourists visit per year, compared with ~60 million in Italy and 80+ million in Spain/France. It does about $60 billion of trade per year, compared with $900 billion in Italy, $650 billion in Spain, and $1.15 trillion in France.
   328. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:50 PM (#5946703)
I'm not a lockdownist, I'm a believer in Socratic wisdom.
   329. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:54 PM (#5946704)
That's not hermetically sealed from the world. It has less interaction, most likely, with the rest of the world than some richer and bigger countries. Travel is open, in and out. There is international trade, international travel, international tourism.

The lack of lockdown would itself drive up the expected April 1 number and all the components that would go into estimating it. April 1 was 2-4 weeks into the rest of the world's lockdown.
   330. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:57 PM (#5946705)
I wait perhaps 10 minutes to get into my local TJs and and less for HEB. Yesterday, all but two people I saw on line and in the store had masks. It's much nicer than the NY experience, on all sides.

As for "Oh hey, are you getting this item restocked?" or "Oh, when are you getting this again?" — the answer is yes: we restock every day. Nope, unh-unh. Not true. Not even in normal times, to say nothing of the seasonals, and April is a pivot month, even in states that lack seasons.
   331. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:57 PM (#5946706)
Belarus had 2,500 Chinese tourists visit in May 2019.

What do you think the number was in the middle of winter? A few hundred per month? Maybe a little more for New Year's?

Tourism between China and Belarus is on the same order of magnitude as tourism between the West and North Korea.
   332. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:58 PM (#5946707)
Belarus has very limited tourism


Quick, complete this sentence: "The think in Belarus I most want to see is _____."
   333. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:58 PM (#5946708)
I'm not a lockdownist, I'm a believer in Socratic wisdom.


That's cool. There's nothing wrong with the realm of politics; all the stuff about how we "just have to do what the science says" was silly anyway. Science can tell us how to make a hydrogen bomb, but can tell us nothing about whether to use it or how to manage its existence. And if all we did was listen to the public health types there would be no boxing, little to no football, little to no steak frites. Thanks, but no thanks.
   334. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:59 PM (#5946709)
When 2,500 tourists is national news ....
   335. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5946711)
Maybe a decade ago I was looking at a map and decided that Belarus was in fact literally the last country on earth that I had interest in visiting. I mean, I'd probably rather go there than Yemen at the moment, but in peacetime Yemen would win in a landslide. Not even close.
   336. bunyon Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:07 PM (#5946715)
My wife spent a few days in Belarus once and said it was the creepiest place she's ever been. Not that it has anything to do with the random numbers flowing from all sides above but it is not a place anyone with sense should want to go.
   337. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:08 PM (#5946716)
Belarus had 2,500 Chinese tourists visit in May 2019.

What do you think the number was in the middle of winter? A few hundred per month? Maybe a little more for New Year's?

Tourism between China and Belarus is on the same order of magnitude as tourism between the West and North Korea.
wasn't there a movie about the belarussian tourist industry a few years ago? i think it was called...uh...hostel?
   338. base ball chick Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:10 PM (#5946717)
pikepredator Posted: May 01, 2020 at 01:54 PM (#5946664)

Rather than pay them $1,000/month or whatever to stay home, let's pay them extra to go to work,


GASB!!!!!

pay Those Icky Poor People extra money???!!! dontchu understand that is stealing money from the very pockets of the ultrabillionaires??? who need more and more money to feed their money addiction???!!!

what COULD you be thinkin???!!!
   339. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:11 PM (#5946718)
I looked, Fish, and, well, there's an apartment wthat Lee Harvey Oswald lived in, so I suppose there's a deep-state covid-hoax rabbit hole to descend. Otherwise ...
   340. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:12 PM (#5946719)
Belarus had 2,500 Chinese tourists visit in May 2019.


Even this is kind of extraordinary. I realize there are a certain percentage of people that try and get every passport stamp that they can, and I also realize that it's a very small number in perspective, but it's still 2,500 people that need to explain themselves.
   341. we all water; we all 57i66135 Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:13 PM (#5946720)
Even this is kind of extraordinary. I realize there are a certain percentage of people that try and get every passport stamp that they can, and I also realize that it's a very small number in perspective, but it's still 2,500 people that need to explain themselves.
they needed organs; belarus has many orphans.
   342. Srul Itza Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:14 PM (#5946722)
Belarus is an interesting test case


Thing about Belarus is, they have a good isolation situation:

Nobody really wants to go there.

The people there can't afford to do much travelling anyway.

So covid probably was slow in arriving.

[This is an exaggeration, but with a grain of truth]
   343. Hot Wheeling American Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:16 PM (#5946723)
@david_j_roth:
Everyone is on a knife edge every day, the biggest bosses are outright saying they don't care if their workers live or die, and somehow the people screaming the loudest and getting the angriest are financially secure oldsters who think skipping a haircut is being in the gulag.

The extent to which Americans blame ourselves for the failure and callousness of cruel, lazy elites is sad. But the inability of the most coddled people in the nation's history to deal with even a modicum of inconvenience is hilarious. Respect yourselves, just a little bit.
   344. Esmailyn Gonzalez Sr. Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:16 PM (#5946724)
301. Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 01, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5946668)
I would totally go to see a sporting event at an empty stadium. I think it's a great idea.

"Everybody goes there, it's not crowded enough" - Yogi Berra or something
   345. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:17 PM (#5946725)
Monty Bennett’s sprawling hospitality company is the biggest known beneficiary of the government’s small-business relief program. The Texas conservative has remained unwilling to return his loans even as public anger builds over large companies getting the funds — a fact now drawing the scrutiny of a key lawmaker.

Hotels and subsidiaries overseen by Mr. Bennett’s firm, Ashford Inc., have applied for $126 million in forgivable loans from the Paycheck Protection Program. According to company filings, about $70 million of that has been funded...


Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton finally found something the feds did that they won't sue for.
   346. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:17 PM (#5946726)

I'm not trying to #### on Belarus -- I'd probably enjoy visiting Minsk, for example. But certain people seem determined to overstate how quickly and widely the virus likely spread in the early stages, and this is just another potential example.
   347. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5946728)
"Everybody goes there, it's not crowded enough" - Yogi Berra or something


"It's getting early late in Belarus."
   348. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5946730)
But certain people seem determined to overstate how quickly and widely the virus likely spread in the early stages, and this is just another potential example.


This is my point, and I offer Maine as another example - a few hundred miles from the American epicenter, and the virus is all but nonexistent just north of Portland. You really can't say "Well if Germany had X%, Belarus must have had at least Y%."

Belarus could be in the throes of post-apocalyptic horror next month. Or not at all.
   349. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:27 PM (#5946734)
#343
Let not young souls be smothered out before
They do quaint deeds and fully flaunt their pride.
It is the world’s one crime its babes grow dull,
Its poor are oxlike, limp and leaden-eyed.
Not that they starve, but starve so dreamlessly;
Not that they sow, but that they seldom reap;
Not that they serve, but have no gods to serve;
Not that they die, but that they die like sheep.

-Vachel Lindsay
   350. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:30 PM (#5946735)
The official number in Belarus on April 1 was 163. First confirmed case was a traveler from Iran -- massive hotspot -- in Minsk on February 28. Arrived in Minsk from Baku February 22. In terms of at least the official narrative, COVID got to Minsk before it got to NYC.
   351. Lassus Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5946737)
I grew up in Port Jervis, NY. Family owned a restaurant in Sparrowbush called Scully's....

I grew up going to the Jarvis Public Library in Rome NY (where I could have tossed adolescent or teen Manfred off a 60s architecture landing, or given him smallpox, sorry guys).

Who knows who Jervis was - your NY quiz. Anyone?
   352. Zonk demands an audit of your post Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:35 PM (#5946738)
One of the dev vendors we work with is based in Belarus.... the leads - in context, the people we work with directly who manage development resources back in Belarus - are all external to Belarus.

I like the leads I work with. We don’t talk governance/politics, but they’re good people.
   353. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:35 PM (#5946739)
Yeah but you think NYC had it in December!

Anyway, if literally one dude had it on Feb 22, the numbers check out:

22-Feb 1
29-Feb 3
7-Mar 6
14-Mar 16
21-Mar 39
28-Mar 98
4-Apr 244

This is with infection increasing 2.5x every 7 days. Total infections by April 4: 406

I'm still content with my guess of 4,000 on April 1. I mean, it could be wildly incorrect, but it's an at least partly educated guess.
   354. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:36 PM (#5946740)
This is my point, and I offer Maine as another example - a few hundred miles from the American epicenter, and the virus is all but nonexistent just north of Portland. You really can't say "Well if Germany had X%, Belarus must have had at least Y%."

Yes, and this cuts both ways. A friend of mine from Massachusetts shared a map showing how all these other states have only tested 1-2% of their population, and can't they get their act together?

I was like, which state do you think is missing more cases right now, Massachusetts (~20% of tests coming back positive) or Montana (~3% of tests coming back positive)? Montana tested 386 people yesterday and only 2 came back positive.
   355. Lassus Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:37 PM (#5946741)
Lockdownism has reached the probably inevitable point where it can't really be falsified.

The endless assertions/opinions as fact.
   356. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:40 PM (#5946742)
JUST GIVE ME THE DATA, DAMN IT!!!!

A Massachusetts dad was so enraged that a jogger wasn’t wearing a face mask, he pulled a knife on the guy and ordered him to cross the street, police said.

Michael Nichols, 43, was arrested Thursday on a charge of assault with a deadly weapon following an investigation into the April 20 incident, police said.

Nichols and his two kids were walking along a sidewalk when he allegedly pulled out a knife and told the jogger to cross the street. The 29-year-old man, also of Cambridge, later told detectives he was about 30 to 40 feet away from Nichols at the time, according to a police report.

“Get the f— on the other side of the street,” Nichols said, the jogger told police.

Nichols brandished a silver pocketknife, the jogger told investigators. He then crossed the street and called cops, the police report shows.
   357. base ball chick Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:41 PM (#5946743)
dave,

as mah state has proved - iffn yew don't test em, yew keep the numbers low
   358. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:41 PM (#5946744)
As a North Floridian, I would go with Ocala as the tipping point.


I generally use I-4. Ocala horse country is definitely south. Tampa is southish. Orlando less so, Daytona more so. And the interior south of Orlando until the lake is still pretty southern. Sebring is pretty southern.
   359. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 03:59 PM (#5946752)
Also I know less about math than most of youse, and it's possible that I'm making critical and embarrassing errors. Likely, even.
   360. Lassus Posted: May 01, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5946754)
I knew quite a few Belarussan musicians in the early 90s, a lot of them as conservatory students in CA. Strings, mostly. I haven't followed it much since, only except I had to go around it in 2007 on my way from Moscow to Poland because I didn't realize I needed a visa. Whoops.
   361. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 04:09 PM (#5946756)

Even this is kind of extraordinary. I realize there are a certain percentage of people that try and get every passport stamp that they can, and I also realize that it's a very small number in perspective, but it's still 2,500 people that need to explain themselves.

It sounds like it is a subsidized tour promoted by the Belarus government, targeting people who might be interested in doing business in Belarus (they "attended assembly lines at Belarusian industrial giants", among other activities.)

Anyway, PF, we were talking about Stockholm infection and death rates. Reported COVID deaths in Stockholm are 1,417. Stockholm believes they're around 25% infected today, so were probably ~12.5% 2 weeks ago. ~312,500 people. I assume reported deaths among the currently infected will increase by 50-100%, so you start to get to 0.7%-0.9% IFR. Those numbers aren't crazy to me.

If that math is correct (it might not be!) the worst is still to come for them, especially if it continues to double every two weeks from here.
   362. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 04:18 PM (#5946760)
67 deaths today in Sweden.
   363. Random Transaction Generator Posted: May 01, 2020 at 04:33 PM (#5946765)
So I took the numbers from the worldometers site, chose "Yesterday" (so everyone's numbers are up to date), and then dumped the data into a spreadsheet. From there, I removed China (since their numbers are suspect), and I removed the ships that were listed.

When I did the calculation of total deaths (229,176) and divided it by the total cases (3,220,338), it gives me a total fatality rate of 7.12%

The nations sorted by fatality rate (with at least 10,000 cases are):

Belgium 15.65%
UK 15.63%
France 14.58%
Italy 13.61%
Sweden 12.26%
Netherlands 12.20%
Spain 10.25%
Mexico 9.73%
Indonesia 7.83%
Brazil 6.91%
Iran 6.37%
Canada 5.98%
Ireland 5.98%
Switzerland 5.87%
Romania 5.86%
USA 5.83%
Poland 5.00%
Germany 4.06%
Portugal 3.95%
Austria 3.78%
Ecuador 3.61%
India 3.31%
Japan 3.05%
Peru 2.84%
Turkey 2.64%
Ukraine 2.51%
S.Korea 2.29%
Pakistan 2.19%
Chile 1.42%
Israel 1.39%
Russia 1.01%
UAE 0.84%
Saudia Arabia 0.71%
Belarus 0.63%
Singapore 0.09%
Qatar 0.07%

China's listed fatality rate is 5.59%.

   364. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 04:43 PM (#5946766)
I think that's more of a measure of testing protocols and availability than it is of lethality. The places at the top are the places that got swamped and couldn't often spare the tests to use them on people that weren't already ill, or highly highly likely to have contracted the virus. The nations on the bottom, the opposite - the virus has not really taken hold yet, or they had enough tests to use them liberally (S Korea).
   365. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 04:45 PM (#5946767)


If that math is correct (it might not be!) the worst is still to come for them, especially if it continues to double every two weeks from here.


I should add, I don't really think it will continue to double every 2 weeks there. (I'm not even sure it has been doubling every two weeks -- it probably was a month ago but not sure that it still is given some of the restrictions and voluntary precautions people are taking.)

I'm less sure of one-size-fits-all rates of spread or prescriptions for shutdowns than I am about the data for the fatality rate, and there's still a pretty wide range around the fatality rate in my opinion.
   366. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 01, 2020 at 04:50 PM (#5946768)
An update on the effort to disinfect the NYC subway - they aren’t starting until May 6, when the subway will close from 1:00-5:00 AM:
New York’s 24/7 subway system will shutter nightly from 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. to facilitate coronavirus cleaning, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Thursday in a historic move. … The nightly closures — the likes of which have never been imposed for an extended period of time on the system — will take effect in the early hours of May 6 and don’t yet have an established end date.
That’s a full 8 weeks from when the cancellation of mass gathering began. Eight weeks of running death trains, first with millions and even now carrying hundreds of thousands. The NYC Metro Area has less than 7% of the country’s population, but more than half of the coronavirus deaths. Those who have used any excuse to criticize the feds or red state governments may want to focus a bit of their attention on where the real problem is.
   367. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 04:50 PM (#5946769)
I should add, I don't really think it will continue to double every 2 weeks there.

Me neither. Thanks for the comment though. You're right, the numbers are within the ballpark of what we would've expected.
   368. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 01, 2020 at 05:06 PM (#5946770)
That’s a full 8 weeks from when the cancellation of mass gathering began. Eight weeks of running death trains, first with millions and even now carrying hundreds of thousands. The NYC Metro Area has less than 7% of the country’s population, but more than half of the coronavirus deaths.

Have other cities with subway systems and far fewer cases been running their trains under non-"death train" conditions in your opinion? What's the important factor in trains being not death trains?
   369. Howie Menckel Posted: May 01, 2020 at 05:11 PM (#5946771)
Locals only, please

POINT PLEASANT BEACH, N.J. (AP) — American taxpayers helped pay for the sand on the Maryland Avenue beach, a popular spot on the New Jersey shore that was devastated by Superstorm Sandy and that has since been rebuilt and maintained with federal money.

Slated to reopen in mid-May, the plan was for only residents of Point Pleasant Beach to use it, at least at first.

But on Friday afternoon, New Jersey’s governor threw cold water on that plan, which is also being used by some shore towns around the country as they inch back toward resuming normal activities in the midst of the coronavirus outbreak.
   370. base ball chick Posted: May 01, 2020 at 05:12 PM (#5946772)
and in more wonderful news from my state with all the low numbers of covid cases - from channel 2 news: (not fox)

"In Texas, more than 40% of the state’s coronavirus deaths are linked to long-term care facilities, according to an analysis of government data, yet health authorities have refused to name sites with known cases or even reveal the total number of infections across all centers"


- they are also saying that apparently children "can't" or is it "don't" transmit a covid infection to adults. how is that even possible, especially if they are coughing or sneezing
   371. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 01, 2020 at 05:24 PM (#5946774)
Have other cities with subway systems and far fewer cases been running their trains under acceptable non-"death train" conditions in your opinion?
They would appear to be doing something different, since their results are so much better, no? Haven't seen any reports of other cities allowing the homeless to take over the subways - you’d think it’d be in the news if it was happening. Not sure about disinfecting trains, but isn’t that an obvious priority if you’re going to continue to run the trains? Especially in a ‘hot spot’? I just don’t see how NYC could cut back on train service so much that it made social-distancing impossible for the remaining essential-worker ridership, allow the homeless to abandon the shelters in favor of the subway, skimp on cleaning/disinfecting, and not expect a very poor result. Yet, De Blasio & Cuomo seem to get less criticism here than those officials who have allowed folks to walk on the beach (without apparent adverse consequences).
   372. Srul Itza Posted: May 01, 2020 at 05:27 PM (#5946775)
"The think in Belarus I most want to see is _____."


the exit.
   373. Srul Itza Posted: May 01, 2020 at 05:37 PM (#5946777)
I'm not trying to #### on Belarus


Why not? Who'd notice?
   374. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 01, 2020 at 05:37 PM (#5946778)
369 -- Howie, Do Jersey beach towns still use badges/passes to regulate access?
   375. Laser Man Posted: May 01, 2020 at 06:06 PM (#5946782)
Haven't seen any reports of other cities allowing the homeless to take over the subways - you’d think it’d be in the news if it was happening. Not sure about disinfecting trains, but isn’t that an obvious priority if you’re going to continue to run the trains? Especially in a ‘hot spot’?
For what it's worth, New York seems to be the only state that has seen a steady decrease in deaths/hospitalizations/cases over the last month. As Howie has been posting, NY peaked at 799 deaths on April 9, and has seen that number drop weekly to 630, 422, and 289 today. That peak on April 9 makes sense with the "New York Pause" that started in late March. And the rate of Covid positive tests has shown a nice drop too, from a high of ~60% at the end of March to <20% now.

NY Positive Test Percentage
   376. Howie Menckel Posted: May 01, 2020 at 06:08 PM (#5946783)
369 -- Howie, Do Jersey beach towns still use badges/passes to regulate access?

they have been, yes, in spite of questionable legality. we'll see tomorrow.
   377. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 01, 2020 at 06:08 PM (#5946784)
FDA authorizes experimental drug remdesivir for emergency use in COVID-19 patients



The Food and Drug Administration just authorized the emergency use of remdesivir, an experimental antiviral drug, to treat COVID-19.

Emergency authorization does not mean that the drug is FDA-approved, a standard that only comes after a detailed review showing that a drug can safely and effectively treat a particular disease. The agency can issue an emergency use authorization (EUA) for unapproved medical products that may help treat a life-threatening disease when no approved alternatives are available, and that’s what it did here.

The authorization does not mean the drug was proven to work by the FDA’s usual benchmarks but that “the known and potential benefits of remdesivir when used to treat COVID-19 outweigh the known and potential risks of such products,” according to the agency’s authorization letter.

Under the authorization, the drug can be used to treat patients who are hospitalized with a severe enough case of the disease that they need to be given supplemental oxygen or placed on a ventilator.

Pharmaceutical company Gilead, which makes remdesivir, previously announced that it plans to give away its entire existing supply of the drug — enough to treat over 140,000 patients. Gilead said in a press release that the US government will be in charge of distributing remdesivir to hospitals, but it is still unclear when the company will start to ship the drug under the new authorization.

   378. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 06:20 PM (#5946787)
FDA authorizes experimental drug remdesivir for emergency use in COVID-19 patients



Excellent news.
   379. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 06:24 PM (#5946788)
NYC deaths peaked on April 7, 17 days after the shelter-in-place order took effect. I recall reading that the average COVID death takes 18 days from infection to death. That does not sound like a coincidence, and if you want to show that there's blood on the two Democrats' hands, I don't see why you need to go beyond that. If they had acted earlier, fewer people would have died. There can't be much doubt about that.

Not sure, however, why YC is so obsessed with the subway - the problem is very ugly, but that the subway system has become so empty as to provide harbor for the homeless in the weeks after the city successfully flattened the curve doesn't sound like a major contributor to the original problem. From what I can find MTA did not begin to cut service until March 25, several days after the shelter-in-place order began. And from that point onward, the infection began to abate.
   380. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 06:36 PM (#5946790)
Laser Man beat me to it.

I've written before, but I think that NYC was ######. I think that by the time anyone in America was ready to do anything serious about the virus, NYC already had a huge amount of illness, far bigger than anywhere else. On March 7, there were 24 confirmed cases. In the next week they found another 2,000, and the week after that almost 20,000. How many real cases do you think there really were on March 7? Tens of thousands?

(This is why I think SBB's Chinese restaurant story is at least kinda plausible.)

Cuomo and De B could have pushed one direction instead of the other, and would have saved lives. Perhaps thousands of lives. But NYC was going to be the epicenter no matter what. It would have taken a federal decision to close the borders long before anyone was ready to do that. Would have required extraordinary foresight.
   381. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 06:46 PM (#5946791)
To be clear, I'm not blaming Trump. I don't think any American politician would have done that.
   382. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:01 PM (#5946793)
Not sure, however, why YC is so obsessed with the subway
The word “whatabout” comes to mind.
   383. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:05 PM (#5946794)
"The thing in Belarus I most want to see is _____."


Live sports. They're one of only two countries (Nicaragua) that never suspended their soccer league. (Although I think the matches are being played in empty stadia...)
   384. Hot Wheeling American Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:05 PM (#5946795)
To be clear, I'm not blaming Trump. I don't think any American politician would have done that.

I'm relatively on board with that, but...what have really done since mid-March other than local SIP orders? I don't see much blame for things done pre-March (even though there was plenty of intel and knowledge this was coming), but it seems as though we've just been crossing our fingers that this...just goes away. 'It's going to disappear' - the US COVID-19 Plan

And The Yankee Clapper provides updates on NYC because The Yankee Clapper is a bad faith actor and it's a liberal city.

@JeremyKonyndyk:

Welcome to May.

As I feared, the federal government wasted April much as it wasted February.

That is a harsh assessment given how much the country has been suffering. But without competent federal leadership, the best we are managing is to tread water. Some stats:

US cases, April 1: 25.1k
US cases, April 30: 29.5k

We have spent the month of April on a plateau. Daily counts fluctuating between 25-30k, no longer rising but not definitively declining.

Testing has been stuck as well. After surging in March, growth slowed in April (per
@COVID19Tracking data):

First week of April averaged 144k tests/day.
Last week of April averaged 220k tests/day.

At those levels, antibody surveys suggest we're only finding <1 in 10 cases.

As @trvrb laid out here, this leaves our national R0 stuck at around 1, despite the immense pain the lockdowns are imposing.

That's certainly better than an R of 3 (3 new cases for each existing). But it doesn't put us on a path to containment.

Rather, it looks like US-style lockdowns are enough to freeze transmission in place (R=1) but not enough to drive it down (R<1).

Which suggests that without further measures (more on that in a sec), we could remain on this plateau for quite a while.

That of course would be devastating. This plateau produced nearly 60k American deaths in March, just from the officially recorded figures. Actual excess mortality was considerably higher.

So for each month we remain on the plateau, we risk losing more Americans than we lost in nearly a decade in Vietnam. If we spend May like we spent April, we will blow past 100k dead in weeks.

If we relax the restrictions too early, death tallies could be much worse.

There is simply no way out of our current predicament without a much more aggressive approach. Distancing, as painful as it is, is not enough.

We must, must, must scale up testing and tracing as well. Without that we are stuck.

And alongside that, we must surge attention and support toward the kind of places that are now producing the largest volumes of new cases - unsafe workplaces and unsafe care facilities.

The way forward is very clear: test, trace, isolate, protect. Putting that infrastructure into place can bring down cases to a manageable level, enable us to relax lockdowns, and move to a posture of sustainable suppression.

But that will be tough to deliver without the feds.


The states have vital roles, but they can't do it on their own. They need a functioning federal partnership - resources, guidance, technical advice, operational support.

Instead they have to hide their tests and PPE to avoid the feds confiscating them.

So it is hard to be optimistic (I'm sorry). We are stuck in an untenable holding pattern as long as federal leadership means vague slide decks and empty assurances rather than test kits, PPE, and accountability.

The feds lost February by ignoring the domestic threat and failing to prepare.

They've lost April by failing to lay the foundation for a safe exit from the lockdowns.

Will they lose May as well?
   385. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:11 PM (#5946796)
For what it's worth, New York seems to be the only state that has seen a steady decrease in deaths/hospitalizations/cases over the last month.


It ran roughshod over what are far and away the most vulnerable members of the herd and has run out of many of the easiest targets and thus lost some of its lethality. Sad and tragic human story in many dimensions, but epidemiologically, this is what happened. It's certainly not the only relevant factor, but it's a big one.

(Although I think the matches are being played in empty stadia...)


Not by government order.

There is simply no way out of our current predicament without a much more aggressive approach. Distancing, as painful as it is, is not enough.

We must, must, must scale up testing and tracing as well. Without that we are stuck.


Nope. People are quickly running out of patience with the bait and switch and want to start re-opening. The curves have been flattened and it's time to move on to the next phase. The lockdownites have now lost even the WHO:

The World Health Organization lauded Sweden as a “model” for battling the coronavirus as countries lift lockdowns — after the nation controversially refused restrictions.

Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies expert, said Wednesday there are “lessons to be learned” from the Scandinavian nation, which has largely relied on citizens to self-regulate.

“I think there’s a perception out that Sweden has not put in control measures and just has allowed the disease to spread,” Ryan told reporters. “Nothing can be further from the truth.”

Ryan noted that instead of lockdowns, the country has “put in place a very strong public policy around social distancing, around caring and protecting people in long-term care facilities.”

“What it has done differently is it has very much relied on its relationship with its citizenry and the ability and willingness of its citizens to implement self-distancing and self-regulate,” Ryan said. “In that sense, they have implemented public policy through that partnership with the population.”

He said the country also ramped up testing and had adequate capacity in hospitals to handle any outbreaks.

“I think if we are to reach a new normal, Sweden represents a model if we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have lockdowns,” Ryan said.


(This is why I think SBB's Chinese restaurant story is at least kinda plausible.)


Appreciated, but it's not really the "Chinese restaurant story." I'd think the same thing whether or not I went to Chinatown. The Chinatown trip was never more than a possible piece of an integrated narrative.

   386. Lassus Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:22 PM (#5946798)
People are quickly running out of patience with the bait and switch

Always a conspiracy to find.


We must, must, must scale up testing and tracing as well. Without that we are stuck.
Nope.


If scaling up testing and tracing is part of opening up, are you against that as well?
   387. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:25 PM (#5946801)
To be clear, I'm not blaming Trump. I don't think any American politician would have done that.

That's possible, I guess.

Would have required extraordinary foresight.

This really isn't though. We had enough insight into what was happening in Wuhan, and the playbook for pandemic response is well established enough, that we knew the appropriate actions to take. How many politicians would stick their necks out like that, and shut down foreign travel? Probably not many, as you say, but given the intelligence he was provided, ideally the American President leads the rest of the world to meet with the Chinese government in early February, and works some arrangement out where anyone who "belongs" outside China (e.g. French family on vacation in Beijing) can be quarantined humanely either near a Chinese airport or in their home country before returning to normal life.

Last I had read, the New York virus seems to have arrived from Europe. That additional leap should have given us time. Certainly New York had more time than Seattle, and now Washington has 30% fewer deaths than flyover state Indiana.
   388. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5946803)

It ran roughshod over what are far and away the most vulnerable members of the herd and has run out of many of the easiest targets and thus lost some of its lethality. Sad and tragic human story in many dimensions, but epidemiologically, this is what happened.


The idea that the most vulnerable were hit and now the disease will be less lethal is completely unsupported by any evidence.

NYC has 8.4 million people. It seems that ~25% were infected (let's say 20-30%), and ~1% of those died (~0.7%-1.5% depending on what you think of the excess death numbers). There's no evidence that it was the most physically vulnerable ~25% who were infected (there's some evidence it was the most economically vulnerable, but that's not the same thing), and no reason to believe that if people from the remaining ~75% were infected, the disease would be any less lethal.
   389. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5946804)
We had enough insight into what was happening in Wuhan, and the playbook for pandemic response is well established enough, that we knew the appropriate actions to take. How many politicians would stick their necks out like that, and shut down foreign travel?


Correct, "foresight" was an oversimplification. It would have taken some foresight combined with extraordinary courage/initiative.
   390. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:39 PM (#5946805)
edit > deleted an obnoxious comment I had submitted, in my continuing effort to promote good dialogue, not bad dialogue
   391. . Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:42 PM (#5946806)
It really shouldn't be necessary to have to re-litigate the concept of differences in vulnerability to both infection and death, as well as symptoms, within the relevant herd.
   392. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:43 PM (#5946807)
Appreciated, but it's not really the "Chinese restaurant story." I'd think the same thing whether or not I went to Chinatown. The Chinatown trip was never more than a possible piece of an integrated narrative.


Yep, understood.
   393. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:49 PM (#5946809)
Not sure, however, why YC is so obsessed with the subway - the problem is very ugly, but that the subway system has become so empty as to provide harbor for the homeless in the weeks after the city successfully flattened the curve doesn't sound like a major contributor to the original problem. From what I can find MTA did not begin to cut service until March 25, several days after the shelter-in-place order began.
Reports indicate that ridership is ~ 10% of pre-coronavirus levels, but’s that’s still 500,000+ per day. It’s also reported that service has been cutback so severely that during rush hour - when many essential workers are going in or coming home - the trains are about as crowded as they were in ‘normal times’. That the subways are full of homeless people during non-rush times, and only disinfected every 3 days, increases the already serious risk of virus transmission. Doesn’t make sense that this wasn’t addressed until 8 weeks into the crisis, IMHO. Metro NYC coronavirus cases/deaths may be coming down because most people are able to shelter-in-place and avoid the subway like the plague, but those who must continue using the subway, and those they come in contact with, are being put at what certainly seems to be high risk.
   394. PreservedFish Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:50 PM (#5946811)
Doing the math backwards, and probably making the same errors as I always do, but let's pretend NYC had 20,000 people infected in the first week of April. With an R0 of 2.5 I'm getting Patient Zero around January 22nd.

However, the math also checks out for the "super spreader" theory, if one man can indeed infect dozens.
   395. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:58 PM (#5946813)

They would appear to be doing something different, since their results are so much better, no?

I won't defend how NYC has handled the subway -- the subway was a mess even before the pandemic*. But what are the other cities that rely as much on the subway as NYC and have had a less severe outbreak? Nowhere else in the U.S. even comes close to meeting the first qualification, so it's hard to evaluate the second.

* it's worth noting that Andy Byford, the MTA head who previously ran the London Tube and was managing the turnaround of the NYC subway, with reasonably positive results, resigned in late January for unclear reasons (it was reported that he had butted heads with Cuomo, although he denied it). I wonder, would NY have managed this any better if he had still been in charge.

I've written before, but I think that NYC was ######. I think that by the time anyone in America was ready to do anything serious about the virus, NYC already had a huge amount of illness, far bigger than anywhere else. On March 7, there were 24 confirmed cases. In the next week they found another 2,000, and the week after that almost 20,000. How many real cases do you think there really were on March 7? Tens of thousands?

Cuomo and De B could have pushed one direction instead of the other, and would have saved lives. Perhaps thousands of lives. But NYC was going to be the epicenter no matter what. It would have taken a federal decision to close the borders long before anyone was ready to do that. Would have required extraordinary foresight.


I think if Cuomo had the foresight and displayed the type of leadership then that he's shown over the past month, he might have been able to convince New York to go on an earlier lockdown and saved a lot of lives. I don't know that Di Blasio could have done it even if he had the foresight to believe it was necessary.
   396. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 07:59 PM (#5946814)
Correct, "foresight" was an oversimplification. It would have taken some foresight combined with extraordinary courage/initiative.

It didn't help that the WHO was basically saying it was racist to stop travel from China. And other chimed in on that same note.

China should have shut down all flights from China when COVID was discovered.
   397. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 08:14 PM (#5946816)
If mass transit was the main vector of transmission then it’s unlikely that the elderly were disproportionately infected.
   398. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: May 01, 2020 at 08:21 PM (#5946817)

I've written before, but I think that NYC was ######. I think that by the time anyone in America was ready to do anything serious about the virus, NYC already had a huge amount of illness, far bigger than anywhere else. On March 7, there were 24 confirmed cases. In the next week they found another 2,000, and the week after that almost 20,000. How many real cases do you think there really were on March 7? Tens of thousands?


A simple model that circulated back in March showed that declaring a lockdown even 1 day earlier resulted in a 40% drop in the total number of cases. That's the power of the exponential function.
   399. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 01, 2020 at 08:54 PM (#5946820)
That the subways are full of homeless people during non-rush times, and only disinfected every 3 days, increases the already serious risk of virus transmission.


I don't see why the homeless would be more likely to spread the virus than any other people. The issue is crowding of people in general. And not disinfecting surfaces. Agreed that the cleaning being neglected is pretty pathetic.

They would appear to be doing something different, since their results are so much better, no? Haven't seen any reports of other cities allowing the homeless to take over the subways - you’d think it’d be in the news if it was happening.


It would not be in the news if it was happening, except the local news. What happens in New York becomes national news.

A simple model that circulated back in March showed that declaring a lockdown even 1 day earlier resulted in a 40% drop in the total number of cases. That's the power of the exponential function.


I don't think you can use the word "showed" for something in a theoretical model. But yeah, people were absolutely pulling their hair out over De Blasio saying "Go to a movie! Support the economy!" what was it, maybe four days before saying the opposite. Four days of exponential increase.
   400. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 01, 2020 at 09:06 PM (#5946821)
I was like, which state do you think is missing more cases right now, Massachusetts (~20% of tests coming back positive) or Montana (~3% of tests coming back positive)? Montana tested 386 people yesterday and only 2 came back positive.


The results in Montana have inspired me to think my earlier statement that "we are not going to get the curve back to zero, we are just going to stay at a plateau" may be wrong. Just like there is no "death rate" among all humans in general, there is no one curve across the nation. Each state, each city has its own curve and most of them intervened before it was too late. Montana, Maine, Vermont. I think they can safely open up except for large public gatherings. This list does not include Georgia or Texas.

I don't know why the best source for this information is a Twitter account called Magilla Gorilla 39, but this is pretty impressive. The number of cases in Montana went up, and then a few days after people started isolating, it went down again. Caveat that this depends on the amount of testing done, but there isn't any LESS testing done than there used to be.

They have been lucky to not have any major clusters in any one place due to big nursing homes or negligible employers like the meatpacking plants in Nebraska and South Dakota, so you can see the curve extremely clearly. Although who knows, maybe they would have done even better without the debunked dogma of lockdown theory.
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