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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 4874 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   3801. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 23, 2020 at 02:37 PM (#5953135)
Hey, there are only 728 PLANNED episodes. We'll probably all be dead before then.
hell, i didn't think we'd make it this long
   3802. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: May 23, 2020 at 02:37 PM (#5953136)
it was also not one in 1920, or 1820, or 1720 BC.


Damn Minoan kids with their Linear A tablets -- that's why Knossos was destroyed, you know.
   3803. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 23, 2020 at 03:13 PM (#5953140)
Certainly true in Texas in the Imperial College London and Children's Hospital of Philadelphia projections and the native stupidity of white Texans.
Blomberg’s continual efforts to selectively fault certain states (and even races!) seems to be based on nothing more than his own political preferences. Coronavirus Deaths Per 1M Population By State:
1. NY 1,495.4
2. NJ 1,247.6
3. CT 1,020.1
4. MA 896.2
5. DC 605.0
. . .
28. FL 104.0
. . .
41. TX 52.1
That’s less than 1/20th of the N.Y. rate for Texas.
   3804. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5953141)
I guess there's value in empathizing with Karl's position. It's about as much value as empathizing with my two year old who doesn't want to pick up his toys, or really really wants to watch another episode of Word Party.

It's about the same level of emotional maturity.
   3805. Hysterical & Useless Posted: May 23, 2020 at 04:18 PM (#5953142)
Dumbass kids


Redundant.
   3806. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 23, 2020 at 05:00 PM (#5953144)
3803 -- Hey #######, Did you pull your head out of the Foxverse long enough to look at the work?

Didn't think so.

Do you understand that forecast is not the same as present stats?

Of course not.

Is there anything you understand?

Didn't think so.
   3807. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 23, 2020 at 05:28 PM (#5953147)
#3806, Who are you trying to kid? You’ve spent this entire thread and the previous one trying to find reasons to criticize GOP governors, while ignoring the actions of some Democratic governors that greatly exacerbated the situation in their states. Do you think that hasn’t been noticed? Didn’t think so.
   3808. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 23, 2020 at 06:20 PM (#5953150)
The higher percentage of tests coming back positive, the more tests that country should be doing. It's likely that, on average, countries that have more cases per test, but test the same number per 1000 population, are undercounting cases (and deaths) by a greater percentage. In other words, countries like Iceland, Denmark, and New Zealand are probably identifying (and have identified in the past) a pretty high proportion of their cases (and deaths), while countries like Brazil and Mexico are not (and have not).

The US is somewhere in the middle (of those listed). We've tested a fair number of people per 1000 population, but our cases per test is still on the higher end.

Since these are cases and testing numbers as reported by the country, they won't be the same everywhere.

Country      Cases/Test     Tests/1000 population

Iceland        3.1%         170.7
San Marino    16.8%         117.0
Luxembourg     6.0%         106.7
Denmark        2.1%          90.9
Belgium        7.0%          66.4
Spain          9.3%          65.0
Ireland        8.3%          59.9
Russia         4.0%          57.6
Italy          6.8%          56.1
New Zealand    0.6%          53.1
Singapore     10.5%          50.4
UK             7.7%          49.4
USA           11.7%          43.1
Germany        5.0%          42.9
Canada         5.9%          37.7
Turkey         8.6%          21.5
France        13.2%          21.2
Sweden        15.8%          20.8
Netherlands   14.4%          18.3
South Korea    1.4%          15.9
Iran          17.1%           9.3
Ecuador       34.4%           6.0
Brazil        46.4%           3.5
India          4.6%           2.1
Mexico        31.0%           1.6
   3809. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 23, 2020 at 06:51 PM (#5953151)
AuntBea, isn’t it more relevant to look at recent testing percentages? In the US over the past two weeks I think about 6% of tests are coming back positive. Don’t know how that compares to other places.
   3810. PreservedFish Posted: May 23, 2020 at 07:00 PM (#5953152)
Russia 4.0%
Brazil 46.4%

And this very morning I was reading that they have the same number of cases. Would it be fair to assume that Brazil actually has 10x COVID cases as many as Russia?
   3811. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 23, 2020 at 07:19 PM (#5953153)
isn’t it more relevant to look at recent testing percentages? In the US over the past two weeks I think about 6% of tests are coming back positive.
Definitely, if your focus is how well we are doing on current testing. Most of the cases/deaths in Europe and the US happened over the last two months though, so if trying to roughly estimate how much undercounting there has been relative to other countries, you'd probably want something like the above.
   3812. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 23, 2020 at 07:27 PM (#5953154)
Russia 4.0%
Brazil 46.4%

And this very morning I was reading that they have the same number of cases. Would it be fair to assume that Brazil actually has 10x COVID cases as many as Russia?
Assuming the numbers from Brazil and Russia are accurate, or at least inaccurate in a similar way (probably not that likely), I would guess Brazil has not had 10x a many cases as Russia. Russia has tested 50+ per 1000 population, so they probably have found a higher proportion of their cases. Brazil has only tested 3.5 per 1000. It's unlikely that if Brazil had tested another 10,000,000 people they'd also test at 46% positive. Presumably they are testing mostly the most likely patients so far.

edited to correct a couple numbers.

   3813. PreservedFish Posted: May 23, 2020 at 07:39 PM (#5953155)
Oh, of course. It's not in any way a random sample.
   3814. puck Posted: May 23, 2020 at 08:06 PM (#5953158)
That seems amazing positive tests could be 30 or 40%. Weren't US tests coming back around 10% positive back when there were strict conditions for getting a test (e.g., having covid-like symptoms)?
   3815. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 23, 2020 at 08:28 PM (#5953159)
On April 30, West Bengal announced that 105 COVID-19 positive patients had died, but did not count 72 of them as they died due to comorbidities. On May 18, the Delhi government asked its hospitals not to take samples of dead people to test for COVID-19. Also, while the Delhi government’s official COVID-19 death toll was 68 until May 8, the number of such deaths in just two hospitals in the city that The Hindu accessed was 107. These COVID-19-specific stories along with the fact that India medically certifies only 22% of deaths (as of 2017) suggest that India may be undercounting its dead.
link

Adding another column, because generally you would think that deaths/case (CFR) would be positively correlated with cases/test, and negatively correlated with tests/1000. In other words, testing more of the population should bring down CFR. Similarly, if a high percentage of tests come out positive, most likely you are catching the worst cases so they should have a higher mortality.

A few outliers below: notably Iceland, Russia, Singapore, Turkey, and everyone at the bottom of the table (Iran, Ecuador, Brazil, India, Mexico) seem to be undercounting deaths by more than others.

edit: to a lesser extent, it looks like the US might be undercounting deaths slightly, relative to some of its peers.


Country      Cases/Test    Deaths/Case (CFR)    Tests/1000 population

Iceland        3.1%           0.5%                170.7
San Marino    16.8%           6.3%                117.0
Luxembourg     6.0%           2.7%                106.7
Denmark        2.1%           5.0%                 90.9
Belgium        7.0%          16.3%                 66.4
Spain          9.3%          10.2%                 65.0
Ireland        8.3%           6.5%                 59.9
Russia         4.0%           1.0%                 57.6
Italy          6.8%          14.3%                 56.1
New Zealand    0.6%           1.4%                 53.1
Singapore     10.5%           0.1%                 50.4
UK             7.7%          14.8%                 49.4
USA           11.7%           5.2%                 43.1
Germany        5.0%           4.6%                 42.9
Canada         5.9%           7.6%                 37.7
Turkey         8.6%           2.8%                 21.5
France        13.2%          15.8%                 21.2
Sweden        15.8%          12.0%                 20.8
Netherlands   14.4%          12.9%                 18.3
South Korea    1.4%           2.4%                 15.9
Iran          17.1%           5.5%                  9.3
Ecuador       34.4%           8.5%                  6.0
Brazil        46.4%           6.3%                  3.5
India          4.6%           2.9%                  2.1
Mexico        31.0%          11.2%                  1.6

   3816. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2020 at 09:16 PM (#5953162)
I think we should be cautious with respect to speculation on the amount of cases in Brazil.

While the positive rate is quite high, their death rate is actually relatively low: just 6.3% of their reported tests are deaths.

Maybe that's just the time lag, or maybe it's faking the reporting in other ways.

It's clear that things are quite bad in Brazil. It's not clear if they're on pace to be the worst hit nation in the world or just the top 5.
   3817. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 23, 2020 at 09:34 PM (#5953163)
   3818. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 23, 2020 at 09:36 PM (#5953164)
Same chart, but for US states. Them differences here are not as extreme, but it is notable that the red states seem to have a lower CFR, implying they are undercounting deaths by more (even accounting for the higher "cases/test" in many blue states


States with the most current cases/deaths

State     Cases/Test    Deaths/Case (CFR)    Tests/1000 population

New York      22.3%           7.9%                 84.9
Massachusetts 17.6%           6.9%                 75.6
Louisiana     11.8%           7.3%                 67.6
New Jersey    26.7%           7.2%                 65.2
Connecticut   19.2%           9.2%                 58.4
Illinois      14.9%           4.4%                 57.0
Michigan      10.6%           9.6%                 51.4
Georgia        9.3%           4.3%                 42.7
Washington     6.6%           5.3%                 40.5
Florida        5.8%           4.5%                 40.0
Maryland      19.6%           4.9%                 38.4     
California     6.1%           4.1%                 38.4
Indiana       14.3%           6.4%                 31.9
Pennsylvania  17.6%           7.2%                 31.5
Virginia      13.8%           3.2%                 30.2
Texas          6.4%           2.8%                 30.0
Ohio           9.9%           6.2%                 27.1
Colorado      16.2%           5.5%                 25.7 

and some states with fewer cases/deaths overall, but who seem to be undercounting deaths significantly.

Tennessee      5.3%           1.7%                 54.7
Nebraska      14.4%           1.2%                 43.2
Iowa          13.6%           2.6%                 39.4
South Dakota  13.3%           1.1%                 37.9
Kansas        11.7%           2.3%                 26.2

   3819. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 23, 2020 at 09:37 PM (#5953165)
I think we should be cautious with respect to speculation on the amount of cases in Brazil.

While the positive rate is quite high, their death rate is actually relatively low: just 6.3% of their reported tests are deaths.
I suspect that this is a massive underreporting of deaths (more so than other countries relative to reporting of cases). This is especially the case since they've barely tested anyone and the number testing positive is very high. It's likely that they are, like probably India, being very stingy on what a COVID "death" is.
   3820. PreservedFish Posted: May 23, 2020 at 09:39 PM (#5953166)
I'm sure tomorrow's front page of the Times is going to thrill Our Dear Leader.


Wow.
   3821. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2020 at 10:03 PM (#5953170)
I suspect that this is a massive underreporting of deaths (more so than other countries relative to reporting of cases). This is especially the case since they've barely tested anyone and the number testing positive is very high. It's likely that they are, like probably India, being very stingy on what a COVID "death" is.


Probably. It's likely that they will be the single worst hit country, but it's hard to tell now, and may be hard to tell forever.
   3822. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 23, 2020 at 10:03 PM (#5953171)
   3823. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 23, 2020 at 10:17 PM (#5953172)
golf clap
   3824. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 23, 2020 at 10:44 PM (#5953174)
I don’t think it is likely that Singapore is undercounting deaths by very much. I explained why last night. Any thoughts on that post?
   3825. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 23, 2020 at 10:48 PM (#5953176)
Suicides On The Rise Amid Shelter-In-Place Order:
Doctors at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek say they have seen more deaths by suicide during this quarantine period than deaths from the COVID-19 virus. The head of the trauma in the department believes mental health is suffering so much, it is time to end the shelter-in-place order.

"Personally I think it's time," said Dr. Mike deBoisblanc. "I think, originally, this (the shelter-in-place order) was put in place to flatten the curve and to make sure hospitals have the resources to take care of COVID patients. We have the current resources to do that and our other community health is suffering." The numbers are unprecedented, he said. "We've never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time," he said. "I mean we've seen a year's worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks."
The article doesn’t include the actual numbers, but a year’s worth of suicide attempts would seem like a lot.
   3826. base ball chick Posted: May 23, 2020 at 10:54 PM (#5953177)
so you think a hundred thousand+ covid deaths are no big deal and they were just trash anyhow, but the suicides and attempts - now you wail over those?

and why, now, are millions of covid deaths so preferable to you?
   3827. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 23, 2020 at 10:57 PM (#5953179)
Definitely, if your focus is how well we are doing on current testing. Most of the cases/deaths in Europe and the US happened over the last two months though, so if trying to roughly estimate how much undercounting there has been relative to other countries, you'd probably want something like the above.

Sorry, I thought that’s what you were focused on when you wrote

The higher percentage of tests coming back positive, the more tests that country should be doing....

The US is somewhere in the middle (of those listed). We've tested a fair number of people per 1000 population, but our cases per test is still on the higher end.


There is a dated narrative out there that the US lacks testing capacity. But the number of tests coming back positive nationwide is now around 5-6%. There is some concern, at least from NY officials, that the narrative actually discourages people from seeking tests because they still think that testing capacity needs to be conserved for the very sick or front-line workers. That may be the case in some states, but not most of them at this point (at least among those that aren’t juicing the numbers). If more people sought out testing, the percentage would likely come down and we’d be catching a higher proportion of actual cases.
   3828. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 23, 2020 at 11:03 PM (#5953180)
We’ve seen 2-3 years worth of suicides in the number of reported COVID deaths in the past 2+ months, nationwide. Probably 3-4x in terms of actual COVID deaths. We should take both the suicides and the COVID deaths very seriously.
   3829. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 23, 2020 at 11:04 PM (#5953181)
3826 - Well, in 2018 the suicide rate was 2x higher for whites than for non-indigenous disposables,

and men die by suicide more than 3x as frequently.

which is not to say that we shouldn't be concerned about suicide. (Hey, I fit the profile.)
   3830. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 23, 2020 at 11:08 PM (#5953182)
Preliminary results from the 1059 patients (538 assigned to remdesivir and 521 to placebo) with data available after randomization indicated that those who received remdesivir had a median recovery time of 11 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 9 to 12), as compared with 15 days (95% CI, 13 to 19) in those who received placebo (rate ratio for recovery, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.55; P<0.001). The Kaplan-Meier estimates of mortality by 14 days were 7.1% with remdesivir and 11.9% with placebo (hazard ratio for death, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.47 to 1.04). Serious adverse events were reported for 114 of the 541 patients in the remdesivir group who underwent randomization (21.1%) and 141 of the 522 patients in the placebo group who underwent randomization (27.0%).


New England Journal of Medicine
   3831. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 23, 2020 at 11:27 PM (#5953183)
I think we should be cautious with respect to speculation on the amount of cases in Brazil.

While the positive rate is quite high, their death rate is actually relatively low: just 6.3% of their reported tests are deaths.

Maybe that's just the time lag, or maybe it's faking the reporting in other ways.


Brazil is probably in my top 10 countries of whom I'm skeptical of data, but if you simply take the numbers at Worldometers, the time lag is almost certainly a huge factor. Worldometers shows 347,398 cases as of "yesterday" (May 23, Worldometers works on GMT). Go back two weeks (to May 9) and they're showing only 156,061 cases. Given their low test rate and high positive rate, it's possible that there's a shorter lag between testing and dying in Brazil than elsewhere, but a HUGE number of Brazil's cases are extremely recent.
   3832. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 23, 2020 at 11:30 PM (#5953185)
That makes sense about Singapore, except that they are still likely undercounting deaths pretty significantly even with all that. It's highly unlikely nobody from the worker dorms has died from coronavirus, and also highly unlikely that they have identified all cases outside of the worker dorms. You'd pretty much need all that to be true for their numbers to make sense.

I can sign how they might not be undercounting by a factor of 10, but I'd very surprised if it weren't by a factor of something like 4 or 5.

edit: Of course, as mentioned by others above, there is also the recency factor, which we saw in the South Korea data to be a huge thing... 0.7% at one point became 2.4% without really any new spread to speak of (edit: actually this isn't really true, since a pretty high proportion of the earlier cases were from the largely young and female religious group, whereas the follow-on cases were likely more evenly spread throughout the population). Factor that in and maybe Singapore is only undercounting by a factor of 2 or 3 (though it still seems a bit of a stretch), which wouldn't be much out of line with Europe.
   3833. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 23, 2020 at 11:39 PM (#5953186)
so you think a hundred thousand+ covid deaths are no big deal and they were just trash anyhow, but the suicides and attempts - now you wail over those?

and why, now, are millions of covid deaths so preferable to you?
I linked to the article in #3825 without expressing any opinions, much less those you just make up.
   3834. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 23, 2020 at 11:41 PM (#5953187)
That makes sense about Singapore, except that they are still likely undercounting deaths pretty significantly even with all that. It's highly unlikely nobody from the worker dorms has died from coronavirus, and also highly unlikely that they have identified all cases outside of the worker dorms. You'd pretty much need all that to be true for their numbers to make sense.


Worldometers cites this article as their source for Singapore. The article includes this:

Twenty-three patients have died from Covid-19 complications here and nine who tested positive have died from other causes.


I guess it's possible that somebody died in a car crash driving home from their COVID test but that proportion seems like they're being pretty stingy with their COVID death numbers. I also wonder if they're only counting citizen deaths. The article talks quite a bit about migrant workers testing positive, so they're obviously including them in the denominator. But they don't mention a specific number of deaths among "migrant workers staying in dormitories".
   3835. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 24, 2020 at 12:10 AM (#5953188)
So, I'm a numbers geek, so I tend to play around at Worldometers some. I just clicked to rank countries by new cases reported yesterday. I know, new cases by day is a very sketchy way to compare countries (or states) but it's kind of a fascinating glimpse at how COVID-19 is spreading across the world. Here's the top 15 countries ranked by new cases yesterday (May 23):

1. USA
2. Brazil - we've discussed them
3. Russia
4. India - per-capita they're still relatively low, but there are over a billion people there, of course
5. Peru
6. Chile
7. Mexico - they recently passed Canada in total deaths
8. UK - hey, a familiar face!
9. Saudi Arabia
10. Bangladesh
11. Iran - they're in the midst of a second wave
12. Pakistan
13. Qatar
14. South Africa - do the presence of Chile and South Africa suggest COVID-19 does track the traditional "flu season"?
15. Turkey
   3836. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: May 24, 2020 at 12:16 AM (#5953189)
My former church in San Jose just issued a statement that despite the President’s guidance, it is not morally or ethically correct to meet in person until either the Governor or local authorities determine it can be done at low risk to the congregation. Bravo, pastor Bryan.

My current church (in dark edit - red Loomis) has been completely silent about the president’s guidance but plans to continue meeting via zoom only.
   3837. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: May 24, 2020 at 12:28 AM (#5953190)
I linked to the article in #3825 without expressing any opinions


To use your memorable and original phrasing, who are you trying to kid?
   3838. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: May 24, 2020 at 12:30 AM (#5953191)
I linked to the article in #3825 without expressing any opinions


To use your memorable and original phrasing, who are you trying to kid?
   3839. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 24, 2020 at 12:53 AM (#5953192)
also w/o linking to the hospitals statement, whic hcontradicts the doctor's sentiments.
   3840. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 24, 2020 at 01:06 AM (#5953193)
Iceland is interesting because they have basically no current cases (pretty much everyone has recovered). They also only have 10 deaths out of 1804 cases. Their number of cases is skewed away from the over 70 group though, so maybe they got lucky and/or smart about preventing old people from getting it in the first place--only about half as many over 70 than expected were infected. Bring that up to average for the population and you are over 1%. Still, it's highly unlikely they found all the infections--it's very likely they missed at least half of them, so that drops the number back down again considerably. On the other hand, they have a small population and 10 deaths is a very small number, so all kinds of things could change it dramatically. Again, just overall health of the populace, not identifying a few deaths from blood clotting or whatever else, being a bit stingy with counting who dies of coronavirus, or just dumb luck, and they would be back in line with the rest of Europe.

An alternate theory would be that older people got it at about the same rate as everyone else in Iceland (except for very young people, which appear to be getting it at a lower rate all across the world), but these old people were just identified at a lower rate, for whatever reason. Maybe the way testing worked in Iceland fewer old people, or at least fewer infected old people, got tested in the first place. If so, this selection bias would have prevented the identification of some old people with the virus, and so when they died their deaths were never recorded as coronavirus.

Whatever the reason, in countries with high CFRs, like Spain, we certainly see the opposite effect. The known incidence of the virus "skews old" in that old people make up a significantly higher percentage of the group that has tested positive with a swab test than they do of the entire population. In Iceland the known incidence "skews young" (at least skews away from the oldest people). We already think in places like Spain this is almost entirely a result of who was being tested rather than a true reflection of the incidence of the virus across the population. For example, Spain's antibody survey shows only a very slight skewing to the older half of the population (and, like everywhere else, a larger skewing away from the very young).
   3841. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 24, 2020 at 01:29 AM (#5953194)
Jesse Lehrich @JesseLehrich

HALF of Fox News viewers believe Bill Gates is plotting to use a mass vaccination campaign against COVID-19 to implant microchips in people & track their movements.

only 26% say that's false.
https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-shows-coronavirus-conspiracy-theories-spreading-on-the-right-may-hamper-vaccine-efforts-152843610.html



... and every one of them still carries their iphone/android everywhere they go.
   3842. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: May 24, 2020 at 01:59 AM (#5953197)
. and every one of them still carries their iphone/android everywhere they go.
Wellduh, if Windows Phone had been successful, Bill Gates never would have had to create COVID.

   3843. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: May 24, 2020 at 02:12 AM (#5953198)
Holy crap, I cut-pasted the link above, and it’s terrifying. The previous quotes were only a small part of the madness.
As a result, only half of Americans (50 percent) now say they intend to get vaccinated “if and when a coronavirus vaccine becomes available
A majority of Trump voters say either that they plan to skip the shot (29 percent) or that they aren’t sure (27 percent)
Another example with dire implications is hydroxychloroquine. A majority of Fox News viewers (53 percent), along with nearly half of Trump voters (49 percent) and Republicans (44 percent), think the antimalarial drug is an effective treatment against COVID-19
Asked what’s worse — 200,000 more elderly Americans dying of COVID-19 over the next year or 30 million Americans being unemployed for the next year — 73 percent of Trump voters say the latter.
There is a parallel sentiment among some evangelicals to resist vaccination out of fear it would constitute the “mark of the beast” mentioned in the Book of Revelation.
(!!!)

We are truly ######.
   3844. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: May 24, 2020 at 02:17 AM (#5953199)
@Karl from NY
And ... I don't mean this *personally* ... I MEAN THIS PERSONALLY.

#### YOU.

My father was born in 1939 ... mother?

1942.

######## like you will likely kill them both.
   3845. Welcome to Gator Hammock (CoB). Posted: May 24, 2020 at 02:25 AM (#5953200)
   3846. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 24, 2020 at 03:29 AM (#5953201)
Very interesting thread here that gets into excess deaths in Brazil, the USA, and Europe. Not sure where the Brazil excess deaths comes from, but it appears highly suspect. Also, the Brazil data for the last three weeks appears to be incomplete (the last two weeks so incomplete they were not charted). Recent incomplete data is a much bigger deal for Brazil than Europe at the moment, since the virus has accelerated in Brazil recently and is decelerating in most of Europe. So, suspect data and still too early anyway. We're going to have to wait for better info on excess deaths in Brazil.

Interesting points on the thread:

Lockdown-expected curves were plotted against excess deaths and in some places recorded deaths (adjusted so that the peaks were on the same scale, even if excess deaths were 25-100% greater). Not all the peaks in each location correspond that closely to what you would expect from a theoretical model based on when "lockdowns" went into effect. That probably shouldn't really be a surprise, because lockdowns aren't really an on/off switch and are only one component of social distancing.

Excess deaths for each US state are estimated based on extrapolating from incomplete CDC data (non-existent for the last 2 weeks, and incomplete for the previous 12 or more weeks). There will be some error doing it this way, but it does allow for ersatz "up to date" (as of two weeks ago) data on excess deaths in each state. It also shows that excess deaths correspond (in time) with coronavirus deaths, and not with lockdowns, highly suggesting that they are related to the disease and not to the lockdowns.

Some states are back to levels, or were never above levels, that are not clearly distinguishable from baseline deaths for prior years, and others remain pretty well above. Important note, though, is that since a lot of the data is extrapolated from incomplete data over the last 4-12 weeks (and doesn't include the last 2 weeks), there is still quite a bit of room for error.

The US as a whole is growing in population each year, so the total number of deaths generally increases as well. This is different from NYC, which is not growing in recent years. This makes comparison of NYC to an average of the last 5 (or more) years a pretty fair way to determine excess deaths in NYC, while the same cannot really be said of the US as a whole. The comparison is better done to the maximum of recent years, or an average of the last several with an adjustment. Either way, according to the estimates by these extrapolations of the CDC data, from weeks 9 to 20 excess deaths were over 50-75% of recorded deaths. 120,000-140,000+ v 80,000. Again, potentially a bit of error due to extrapolating from incomplete CDC data.
   3847. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 24, 2020 at 06:16 AM (#5953203)
Re 3817: Clearly, the Times is hoping this front page will have a "shock and awe" effect, hopefully enough so that the People will rise up and hang Trump from the nearest tree. But it'll more likely have the opposite effect...I mean, is anybody actually going to read an entire page of names? More likely, they'll just roll their eyes and discard it.
   3848. JJ1986 Posted: May 24, 2020 at 06:41 AM (#5953204)
Re 3817: Clearly, the Times is hoping this front page will have a "shock and awe" effect, hopefully enough so that the People will rise up and hang Trump from the nearest tree.
Clearly.
   3849. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: May 24, 2020 at 06:56 AM (#5953206)
apropos of nothing, I loved my windows phone back in 2012-2013. I'd gladly go back to it if it had the app support.
   3850. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: May 24, 2020 at 07:01 AM (#5953207)
Seems like the Times is hoping people will be talking about the front page of a newspaper (remember those?). Seems like it worked.
   3851. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 07:45 AM (#5953210)
That seems amazing positive tests could be 30 or 40%. Weren't US tests coming back around 10% positive back when there were strict conditions for getting a test (e.g., having covid-like symptoms)?

I don’t think so. It peaked around 22% nationwide (Rolling 7-day average). 30-40+ percent In various boroughs of NYC.
   3852. PreservedFish Posted: May 24, 2020 at 07:53 AM (#5953211)
But it'll more likely have the opposite effect...I mean, is anybody actually going to read an entire page of names?

I don't think it's necessary to actually read the entire page to get the point.
   3853. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 24, 2020 at 08:12 AM (#5953212)
Seems like the Times is hoping people will be talking about the front page of a newspaper (remember those?). Seems like it worked.

Naah. Everybody who reads the NYT already despises Trump. (Then again, it's an appropriate day to be preaching to the converted!)
   3854. BrianBrianson Posted: May 24, 2020 at 08:50 AM (#5953214)
That's not what's being suggested. Rather, it's "any press is good press"
   3855. Tony S Posted: May 24, 2020 at 09:10 AM (#5953215)
As a result, only half of Americans (50 percent) now say they intend to get vaccinated “if and when a coronavirus vaccine becomes available
A majority of Trump voters say either that they plan to skip the shot (29 percent) or that they aren’t sure (27 percent)
Another example with dire implications is hydroxychloroquine. A majority of Fox News viewers (53 percent), along with nearly half of Trump voters (49 percent) and Republicans (44 percent), think the antimalarial drug is an effective treatment against COVID-19
Asked what’s worse — 200,000 more elderly Americans dying of COVID-19 over the next year or 30 million Americans being unemployed for the next year — 73 percent of Trump voters say the latter.
There is a parallel sentiment among some evangelicals to resist vaccination out of fear it would constitute the “mark of the beast” mentioned in the Book of Revelation.
(!!!)


Can we continue to claim to be a first-world country?

Years ago I remember seeing a videoclip of Saddam Hussein visiting an Iraqi town. This local older woman went berserk at his presence, whooping and hollering in a rapturous joy and doing everything she could to touch the hem of his garment.

I thought... really, lady? Saddam?

It makes more sense to me now. Massive ignorance breeds toxic personality cults.
   3856. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 09:28 AM (#5953216)
Asked what’s worse — 200,000 more elderly Americans dying of COVID-19 over the next year or 30 million Americans being unemployed for the next year — 73 percent of Trump voters say the latter.

I don’t think this is completely crazy, although people don’t usually talk about it this bluntly. 200,000 dead is a horrible tragedy. 30 million unemployed (18% unemployment assuming they don’t mean 30 million incremental, in which case it would be higher) for a year is another Great Depression, with incredibly difficult to predict socioeconomic and political effects throughout the world.

As a result, only half of Americans (50 percent) now say they intend to get vaccinated “if and when a coronavirus vaccine becomes available

A majority of Trump voters say either that they plan to skip the shot (29 percent) or that they aren’t sure (27 percent)


This is the danger of falsely telling people it’s no more dangerous than the flu over and over again. If this holds, it will be more difficult to achieve herd immunity whenever a vaccine is developed.
   3857. McCoy Posted: May 24, 2020 at 09:31 AM (#5953217)
30 million unemployed nowadays is a lot different than a high unemployment in 1930.

For starters the fundamentals are different. Secondly we have safety nets nowadays and v the political will to take care of the unemployed. We're not going to have a dust bowl and a great migration of homeless.
   3858. Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 24, 2020 at 09:37 AM (#5953218)

Asked what’s worse — 200,000 more elderly Americans dying of COVID-19


Ok so let's change the question: How many children are we willing to sacrifice for better unemployment numbers? Or people in their teens? 20's? 30's, 40's 50's, etc?

They're dying, too. Not at the same #'s as the elderly, but still. Isn't it 60/40 elderly and then everyone else?

Whatever the proportion, the question supposedly asked of Trump voters is not the reality.
   3859. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 09:48 AM (#5953219)
For starters the fundamentals are different. Secondly we have safety nets nowadays and v the political will to take care of the unemployed. We're not going to have a dust bowl and a great migration of homeless.

We might. Then again, a not-ideal-but-still-pretty-good recovery from a nowhere-near-as-bad recession in 2008 ultimately led us to President Trump. Who knows what this one will lead us to?

30 million unemployed in the US means a global recession at the very least. More people will likely starve in Africa. Governments may fall in Europe and the Middle East.

I think it’s very rational to fear those uncertainties.
   3860. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 09:55 AM (#5953220)
They're dying, too. Not at the same #'s as the elderly, but still. Isn't it 60/40 elderly and then everyone else?

IDK about nationally or how people define elderly, but in NY:

95% of deaths are 50+
85% of deaths are 60+
65% of deaths are 70+
   3861. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 24, 2020 at 10:00 AM (#5953221)
200,000 more elderly Americans dying of COVID-19 over the next year or 30 million Americans being unemployed for the next year

#whynotboth
   3862. Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 24, 2020 at 10:03 AM (#5953222)
I think that we're a healthier population these days than, say, 30 or 40 years ago, so the term "elderly" has to be redefined. Let's go with 75.
   3863. Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 24, 2020 at 10:09 AM (#5953223)
#whynotboth


If there's a "second wave" of deaths that gets us to 200K (or more) then you will have the same economic damage. Too many people won't feel safe going out to restaurants etc. Supermarkets and the like will do well. Many industries will suffer greatly with no chance of ever getting back to the revenue they saw pre-COVID.
   3864. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 10:11 AM (#5953224)

I think that we're a healthier population these days than, say, 30 or 40 years ago, so the term "elderly" has to be redefined. Let's go with 75.

I doubt that's how most of the respondents to the question thought about it. Anyway NYS doesn't disclose in increments of 5 years so #3860 is the best I got. But I think it provides a pretty accurate picture. Most of the deaths are over 70. But still a decent number in the 50-70 bracket. And not zero in the 0-50 bracket, either.
   3865. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 10:33 AM (#5953225)

Twenty-three patients have died from Covid-19 complications here and nine who tested positive have died from other causes.

Thanks for that. So they are probably being a bit conservative in their reported count relative to other countries.

I also wonder if they're only counting citizen deaths. The article talks quite a bit about migrant workers testing positive, so they're obviously including them in the denominator. But they don't mention a specific number of deaths among "migrant workers staying in dormitories".

They are definitely counting migrant worker deaths. They give a full accounting of the outcomes of all their cases (I'm giving percentages below but you can find the raw totalshere:

0.03% currently in ICU (8 people)
2.26% admitted to general hospital wards
3.70% discharged from hospital wards
52.95% in "Care Facilities" which means quarantined in certain facilities and hospitals that have been designated for such purpose, but not actually admitted to the hospital for treatment
40.98% completed isolation
0.07% "demised" (that's the 23 reported above)

(Incidentally, I'm not sure where the 9 who died from other causes fit into the above. Unless they died after being released from isolation or discharged from the hospital, there's something a bit off in the accounting.)

So recency is certainly one reason for the lower death count -- more than half of their cases have still not been fully resolved yet.

But my understanding is that they are basically trying to test *everyone* who lives in the worker dorms (~323,000 people). They're still adding hundreds of new worker dorm cases per day, so they clearly haven't reached that goal yet. But they are probably undercounting their cases a lot less than most other countries.

And like I said, the folks in the worker dorms are mostly young men working jobs like construction/factories/ports. Probably not a lot of obesity/diabetes/etc. in that group. So you'd expect their CFR to be very low. Not zero of course, but very low relative to places with a broader outbreak. It's likely they missed some deaths early on, 2-3x underreporting seems plausible to me but we have no way of knowing.
   3866. Hot Wheeling American Posted: May 24, 2020 at 10:36 AM (#5953226)
A second hairstylist who worked while symptomatic potentially exposed 56 clients to Covid-19, officials say
Two Missouri hairstylists potentially exposed 140 clients to coronavirus when they worked for up to eight days this month while symptomatic, health officials said.

The Springfield-Greene Health Department announced Saturday that a second hairstylist tested positive for coronavirus, and may have exposed 56 clients at the same Great Clips salon.

A day earlier, it had said another hairstylist with coronavirus at the same salon potentially exposed 84 customers and seven coworkers.

Both stylists had symptoms while at work, officials said. They did not provide details on their conditions or when they tested positive.
   3867. The Mighty Quintana Posted: May 24, 2020 at 11:45 AM (#5953227)
Weekly Journalist - I still have a Windows Phone. It still functions nicely, although I fear I may have to upgrade soon due to Uber app no longer working. But, where am I going these days?
   3868. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 12:06 PM (#5953228)
since the virus has accelerated in Brazil recently and is decelerating in most of Europe.


As yet no travel restrictions for people coming from Brazil to the US.
   3869. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 24, 2020 at 12:21 PM (#5953231)
Excess deaths in Italy for March/April were 19,000 higher (+68%) than the official COVID totals, according to Italy's National Social Security Institute. Not clear whether that same ratio would continue into May, where the virus now more contained in Italy.
   3870. Ron J Posted: May 24, 2020 at 12:28 PM (#5953232)
3866. At least the first one kept meticulous records and worked masked. The second one also worked masked.

Sadly you are not going to keep people from coming to work sick.

Well in Canada at any rate there have been businesses shut down for not sending sick employees home. I doubt that happens in the US.
   3871. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 24, 2020 at 12:34 PM (#5953234)
A majority of Trump voters say either that they plan to skip the shot (29 percent) or that they aren’t sure (27 percent)

This is the danger of falsely telling people it’s no more dangerous than the flu over and over again. If this holds, it will be more difficult to achieve herd immunity whenever a vaccine is developed.


Does that mean yesterday's bipartisan consensus has been canceled?
   3872. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 24, 2020 at 12:39 PM (#5953235)
Dave is talking like there's a choice between massive deaths or depression.

May I introduce Nouriel Roubini ...
   3873. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 24, 2020 at 12:40 PM (#5953236)
Asked what’s worse — 200,000 more elderly Americans dying of COVID-19

COVID Silver Lining: the latest GOP Social Security fix.
   3874. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: May 24, 2020 at 12:57 PM (#5953237)
COVID Silver Lining: the latest GOP Social Security fix.


They have to up their game — ~60M Americans receive SS. These “gains” are a mere rounding error.
   3875. bobm Posted: May 24, 2020 at 01:19 PM (#5953239)
[3817] I'm sure tomorrow's front page of the Times is going to thrill Our Dear Leader.

U.S. Deaths Near 100,000, an Incalculable Loss


Isn't that a contradiction in terms? 100,000 is by definition calculable.
   3876. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: May 24, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5953240)
What does it represent?
   3877. Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 24, 2020 at 01:35 PM (#5953241)
What does it represent?


The cost of getting back to business?
   3878. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 24, 2020 at 02:08 PM (#5953242)
U.S. Deaths Near 100,000, an Incalculable Loss

Isn't that a contradiction in terms? 100,000 is by definition calculable.


Kinda like when people misuse the word "decimate".
   3879. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 02:33 PM (#5953245)
Listen to some of the comments from young people interviewed by the media, about that HS graduating class that took that group picture with hundreds of kids, no masks: "If someone feels that they're safe enough not to wear masks, I'm fine with it."
The thing is, people have been misled into thinking that masks are primarily about personal safety, rather than about protecting others. (I mean, if it's an N95, it's about your own safety. But the cloth masks are mostly about everyone else's.)
   3880. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 02:35 PM (#5953246)

U.S. Deaths Near 100,000, an Incalculable Loss

Isn't that a contradiction in terms? 100,000 is by definition calculable.
It would be a contradiction if you thinking counting the number of dead is the same as calculating the loss. (Hint: no.)
   3881. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: May 24, 2020 at 02:57 PM (#5953247)
Today's stats: in the CVS there were 6 customers, none of them wearing masks. I then went to the Walgreen's a block away, where there were six customers, all wearing masks.

The thing is, people have been misled into thinking that masks are primarily about personal safety, rather than about protecting others.
Yeah. This should be a moment for people to show their selflessness and community spirit, but the word hasn't gotten out somehow.
   3882. Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 24, 2020 at 03:03 PM (#5953248)
The thing is, people have been misled into thinking that masks are primarily about personal safety, rather than about protecting others. (I mean, if it's an N95, it's about your own safety. But the cloth masks are mostly about everyone else's.)


FWIW, I know that the masks are about the safety of others. It hasn't been kept a secret. Lots of people, especially kids, don't pay attention to things like that, and certainly aren't thinking about being a carrier of disease and who may, directly or indirectly, be the cause of someone else's getting sick from it.
   3883. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 24, 2020 at 03:25 PM (#5953253)
Yeah. This should be a moment for people to show their selflessness and community spirit, but the word hasn't gotten out somehow.
"somehow"...

The president just retweeted someone calling the first woman nominee of either major political party in the US “a skank” a few hours after another Scarborough murder allegation on the weekend the country closes in on 100K coronavirus deaths. pic.twitter.com/5H2E63kWOn

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) May 24, 2020


The president called one prominent female Democrat fat and another a "skank" tonight and it won't get nearly the coverage of Joe Biden saying something dumb because the bar for Trump is subterranean and we've normalized having an ignorant monster as president

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 24, 2020
   3884. puck Posted: May 24, 2020 at 03:26 PM (#5953254)
I wonder if it's less people don't know what masks are supposed to be accomplishing than they just discount the risks.

Maybe they don't know about the possibility of asymptomatic spread but more likely people discount it as a possibility or probability. Karl is frustrated with his missing social life, would go somewhat out of his way to go to store that allowed no masks, yet does not see himself as a risk. And he's one of the conscientious social distancing/mask objectors.

My company decided to force everyone back into the office despite us being able to work remotely (we are an IT company), w/no masks required. The reasoning? One, the state and county guidance now allows it, and two, one of the owners talked to a Doc at a local hospital who said they had no Covid patients at that hospital. So the boss just doesn't see covid as a risk any more. Though every winter flus and colds spread around the office because it's a small space with employees on the phone a lot and with a single small kitchenette and bathroom.

Then you have all the people posting facebook memes about it being a just a flu or an outright hoax.
   3885. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 24, 2020 at 03:28 PM (#5953255)
My company decided to force everyone back into the office despite us being able to work remotely (we are an IT company), w/no masks required. The reasoning? One, the state and county guidance now allows it, and two, one of the owners talked to a Doc at a local hospital who said they had no Covid patients at that hospital. So the boss just doesn't see covid as a risk any more. Though every winter flus and colds spread around the office because it's a small space with employees on the phone a lot and with a single small kitchenette and bathroom.

call your union rep.
   3886. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 03:44 PM (#5953256)

The article doesn’t include the actual numbers, but a year’s worth of suicide attempts would seem like a lot.
Not only are there no numbers, but they switched from suicides to suicide attempts in mid conversation.
   3887. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5953258)

FWIW, I know that the masks are about the safety of others. It hasn't been kept a secret.
To be clear, I was not talking about anyone here; I was making an observation about the general population.
   3888. bobm Posted: May 24, 2020 at 03:54 PM (#5953259)
It would be a contradiction if you thinking counting the number of dead is the same as calculating the loss. (Hint: no.)

It's irrelevant what I think. The Times clearly indicates counting the number of dead relates to calculating the "lives lost". Their online article states:
Read about the lives lost [...] Remembering the Nearly 100,000 Lives Lost to Coronavirus in America


   3889. puck Posted: May 24, 2020 at 04:01 PM (#5953260)
call your union rep.


Yup. Are there even unionized IT people? The topic brings up slashdot flashbacks.
   3890. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 24, 2020 at 04:06 PM (#5953262)
The CDC sadly seems to have become almost completely corrupted by politics. CDC's "best estimate" of the IFR is apparently 0.26%, with a maximum for their parameter range of 0.80%. The Imperial college finds about 0.95% (roughly) for US states, apparently if ignoring excess deaths (they estimate 16% of NY state has been infected, and only about 30,000 dead). I guess that's how the CDC estimates only 500,000 dead if we just go balls out (or "unmitigated") from this point forward. 0.26% IFR with 55% getting infected before herd immunity = 500,000.

In related news, outside of the tri-state area hospitalizations may be increasing.

   3891. Srul Itza At Home Posted: May 24, 2020 at 04:07 PM (#5953263)
I think that we're a healthier population these days than, say, 30 or 40 years ago


Healthier? Maybe.

More obese and prone to diabetes -- definitely.

So we give back with one hand what we take with the other.
   3892. Srul Itza At Home Posted: May 24, 2020 at 04:09 PM (#5953264)
Two Missouri hairstylists potentially exposed 140 clients to coronavirus when they worked for up to eight days this month while symptomatic, health officials said.


FREEDOM!
   3893. Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 24, 2020 at 04:10 PM (#5953265)
To be clear, I was not talking about anyone here; I was making an observation about the general population.


Yeah. It's going to be a long time before I linger in any areas where other people linger.
   3894. Srul Itza At Home Posted: May 24, 2020 at 04:15 PM (#5953267)
It's irrelevant what I think.


At last, something we agree on. If only you would act on it.
   3895. bobm Posted: May 24, 2020 at 04:16 PM (#5953268)
It's irrelevant what I think.

At last, something we agree on. If only you would act on it.


Well, that's nice.
   3896. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 24, 2020 at 04:20 PM (#5953269)
The CDC sadly seems to have become almost completely corrupted by politics.

from november 15, 2016:


Her key insight: When you stay in your job and perform lesser evils, you are supporting the administration, even if in your own mind you abhor it. Your own mind is irrelevant: If you participate, you support.

There’s an obvious objection to her insight: Enough people aren’t going to act “irresponsibly” and refuse support. Supporters are always waiting in the wings. In fact, the new boss may be yearning to drive away the conscientious nonpolitical civil servants to make space for hard line replacements. Why give in? Why exile yourself? Or, if you’re a job-seeker: Why let the bad guy get the job?

Arendt’s answer is this: In the nightmare scenario, you are deluding yourself to think you can turn the train or even slow it down. Maybe you could in an administration committed to the rule of law. But that is not the nightmare scenario we are talking about.
   3897. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 24, 2020 at 04:47 PM (#5953272)
Two Missouri hairstylists potentially exposed 140 clients to coronavirus when they worked for up to eight days this month while symptomatic, health officials said.

FREEDOM!


If you keep posting this enough times, eventually it will be viewed as the ironic, incisive social commentary that it is.

Or not.
   3898. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 05:18 PM (#5953273)
Dave is talking like there's a choice between massive deaths or depression.

That was the question the poll asked of people. You apparently want people to answer a poll question that wasn’t asked. I agree that it’s a false tradeoff.

Does that mean yesterday's bipartisan consensus has been canceled?

We were discussing the politics of mask wearing. Do you have updated numbers on that?

Anyway, I drove into Manhattan yesterday to deal with some things at our apartment. Was pleasantly surprised that just about every person I saw on the street had a mask on—definitely an increase since the last time I went in, about a month ago. OTOH I stopped at a gas station on the way back upstate—about half the customers inside were not wearing masks. Both people working the registers were wearing masks that only covered their mouths. Granted I was in a county that is in Phase 1 reopening. But the statewide mask requirement has not been lifted in those areas.
   3899. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 05:27 PM (#5953274)
The CDC sadly seems to have become almost completely corrupted by politics. CDC's "best estimate" of the IFR is apparently 0.26%, with a maximum for their parameter range of 0.80%. The Imperial college finds about 0.95% (roughly) for US states, apparently if ignoring excess deaths (they estimate 16% of NY state has been infected, and only about 30,000 dead). I guess that's how the CDC estimates only 500,000 dead if we just go balls out (or "unmitigated") from this point forward. 0.26% IFR with 55% getting infected before herd immunity = 500,000.

When I go to link I see 0.4% as best estimate, but that’s still way too low. Their best estimate CFR is 1.3% for people 65+, which is insane. They are going to get people killed *and* further tank the economy because if places open up thinking these numbers are the best estimate, they will shut back down when deaths significantly exceed these estimates.
   3900. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 05:28 PM (#5953275)
You don’t even need to use excess death numbers to get to IFRs in the 1-1.5% range.
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