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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 6412 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   3901. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 24, 2020 at 05:45 PM (#5953276)
if places open up thinking these numbers are the best estimate, they will shut back down when deaths significantly exceed these estimates.

Maybe, maybe not. Hard do say what happens in this political climate. Water park opened illegally yesterday with the expected milling crowds (some for 2-3 hours outside the gate then squeezing through, and it appears that the Gov decided to look the other way
   3902. homerwannabee Posted: May 24, 2020 at 05:53 PM (#5953277)
OK, here's a question. Who are the higest WAR players since 1900 who have never played in a shortened season or had playing time interrupted by war?
The two main players I can think of is Adrian Beltre and Ichiro Suzuki.
   3903. Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 24, 2020 at 05:54 PM (#5953278)
it appears that the Gov decided to look the other way


There's no spike to blame for a shutdown.
   3904. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 24, 2020 at 06:02 PM (#5953280)
Gehrig? Mantle?
   3905. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 06:04 PM (#5953281)
Who are the higest WAR players since 1900 who have never played in a shortened season or had playing time interrupted by war?

Gehrig?
   3906. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 24, 2020 at 06:13 PM (#5953283)
or Hank Aaron?
   3907. Mefisto Posted: May 24, 2020 at 06:23 PM (#5953285)
Aaron played in 1972. Not much, but the question was zero.
   3908. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 24, 2020 at 06:31 PM (#5953287)
Forgot about that. Gehrig then.
   3909. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 24, 2020 at 06:39 PM (#5953289)
When I go to link I see 0.4% as best estimate, but that’s still way too low.
It's 0.4% of those with symptoms, but 35% asymptomatic, for 0.26% total IFR.
   3910. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 24, 2020 at 07:13 PM (#5953291)
Some potential for severe undercounting in Japan, which probably shouldn't be a surprise since they didn't do a lot of testing. Water under the bridge now, perhaps, because they seem to have mostly gotten over the virus for now anyway.

[Tokyo] suffered more than 200 excess fatalities from pneumonia and other coronavirus symptoms early in the outbreak, dwarfing the period's officially recorded 16 from the new disease.

Even more deaths could have been undercounted in April, whose numbers will not come out until next month.

The National Institute of Infectious Diseases tracks fatalities from flu-like illnesses by collecting data from public health departments around the country. The tallies include those who died from pneumonia.

Excess fatalities are calculated by comparing these figures against baselines derived from past data.

The newest numbers show 50 to 60 excess deaths a week for the five weeks starting Feb. 17, adding up to hundreds more fatalities than usual.

Weekly excess deaths exceeding the margin of error come to 20 to 30. The NIID does not publish the raw numbers.
   3911. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 07:21 PM (#5953293)
3909 that’s bonkers.
   3912. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 24, 2020 at 09:37 PM (#5953303)
For people who don't yet understand what masks are for, maybe this will help.
   3913. puck Posted: May 24, 2020 at 09:44 PM (#5953304)
So how much pee gets through a cloth mask? Is it worth anything for protective purposes for the wearer?

Edit: that will go right along with Stiggle's handle.
   3914. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 24, 2020 at 09:49 PM (#5953305)
Edit: that will go right along with Stiggle's handle.
never. forget.
   3915. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 24, 2020 at 10:06 PM (#5953308)
The CDC's "best estimate" came out squarely in the range found by our old friend Ioannidas in a recent "meta analysis" (really, just a survey of some studies that found results he liked), a preprint for which was made public just two days earlier. Some in the science community were not impressed. And really, it doesn't take a scientist to figure out that a 0.2%-0.4% IFR range for cases over the past few months is effectively impossible based in what we've seen across the world.

It looks like Epstein supposedly influencing the white house all over again. Even if not done directly, these are effectively "scientific" works commissioned to provide political cover (the causality arrow really goes the other way around).

   3916. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 24, 2020 at 10:35 PM (#5953311)
Forgot about that. Gehrig then.


Honus Wagner began in 1897. But his post 1900 career WAR is 120, 6 higher than Gehrig.
   3917. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 24, 2020 at 10:42 PM (#5953312)
#3915 yeah I just don’t get it. 0.2% of the entire NYC population has died even if you’re just using the “confirmed” deaths and ignoring the probables, let alone the excess mortality data. I mean, I get it, I just don’t know why these guys are sticking to these low numbers. If we listen to them and open up, the death rate is going to be multiples of what they are predicting. If you get something this wrong in business or academia maybe you become the butt of jokes; but when it involves people’s health and lives, you become a lot worse than that. Ioannidis should know given his role in exposing Theranos.
   3918. PreservedFish Posted: May 24, 2020 at 11:21 PM (#5953314)
Ioannidis : sloppy evidence :: Murray Chass : blogging.
   3919. Snowboy Posted: May 24, 2020 at 11:37 PM (#5953315)
I mentioned a couple pages ago that orders by governors in Kansas and Kentucky to close large religious services had been appealed and overruled in federal courts.

The opposite happened in California last Friday.
A federal appeals court has backed California Gov. Gavin Newsom's stay-at-home order [issued March 19] banning in-church services to blunt the spread of coronavirus, rejecting an argument from clerics that the governor is treading on their First Amendment right to free exercise of their religious beliefs.

The U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals issued a split 2-1 ruling denying the request for a temporary restraining order against Newsom's in-church service ban filed this month by the South Bay United Pentecostal Church in Chula Vista, California.

Link
   3920. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 25, 2020 at 01:21 AM (#5953317)
I mentioned a couple pages ago that orders by governors in Kansas and Kentucky to close large religious services had been appealed and overruled in federal courts.
The problem with the Orders is that they didn’t just ban “large religious services”, they purported to ban drive-in or otherwise socially-distanced religious services, while allowing numerous socially-distanced secular activities. That’s why they were overturned.
   3921. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: May 25, 2020 at 02:27 AM (#5953319)

Honus Wagner began in 1897. But his post 1900 career WAR is 120, 6 higher than Gehrig.


You have to give him Spanish-American War credit. :-)
   3922. Swoboda is freedom Posted: May 25, 2020 at 07:49 AM (#5953321)
Did Babe Ruth ever have an interrupted season?
   3923. baravelli Posted: May 25, 2020 at 08:15 AM (#5953322)
Yes, the 1918 schedule was shortened due to WWI.
   3924. BrianBrianson Posted: May 25, 2020 at 08:21 AM (#5953323)
1918

Edit: Câlisse, une coke.
   3925. PreservedFish Posted: May 25, 2020 at 08:37 AM (#5953324)
Counties won by President Trump in 2016 have reported just 27 percent of the virus infections and 21 percent of the deaths — even though 45 percent of Americans live in these communities, a New York Times analysis has found.
   3926. Howie Menckel Posted: May 25, 2020 at 08:54 AM (#5953325)
Yes, the 1918 schedule was shortened due to WWI.

and the 1919 season only had 140 games.
   3927. JJ1986 Posted: May 25, 2020 at 09:00 AM (#5953327)
Counties won by President Trump in 2016 have reported just 27 percent of the virus infections and 21 percent of the deaths — even though 45 percent of Americans live in these communities, a New York Times analysis has found.
How much of this is driven by New York?

   3928. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 25, 2020 at 09:08 AM (#5953328)
Nearly all of it, I’m sure, is driven by the NYC metro area. Not even worth bothering to check.
   3929. Tony S Posted: May 25, 2020 at 09:38 AM (#5953329)
My BF had an interesting observation this morning -- if we could actually SEE droplets in the air when we breathe, we would ALL be wearing masks unhesitatingly.
   3930. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:11 AM (#5953334)
Re 3925: It's a b*tch when smart people die and stupid people get to live, ain't it?
   3931. PreservedFish Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:40 AM (#5953337)
What the ####?
   3932. Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:46 AM (#5953338)
3930...Not all Trump supporters are stupid, you know that. The one's who aren't stupid are amoral pigs.
   3933. bunyon Posted: May 25, 2020 at 12:11 PM (#5953340)
My BF had an interesting observation this morning -- if we could actually SEE droplets in the air when we breathe, we would ALL be wearing masks unhesitatingly.

My wife and I were talking about this today, as well. An hour in the mask and it's clear how much moisture and #### we're breathing in and out.
   3934. PreservedFish Posted: May 25, 2020 at 12:19 PM (#5953342)
Imagine if you could smell them.
   3935. . Posted: May 25, 2020 at 12:25 PM (#5953344)
Trump won Staten Island (Richmond County).
   3936. Howie Menckel Posted: May 25, 2020 at 12:27 PM (#5953345)
Gloves - Or No Gloves

"NJ Advance Media has launched a daily coronavirus question, a service in which our reporters provide answers to commonly asked questions about the epidemic that has hit hard in New Jersey.

An answer to today’s question is provided by Dr. David Cennimo, an infectious disease specialist who teaches at the Rutgers New Jersey Medical School.

Q: Is it smarter to wear gloves or frequently wash your hands?

A: Wash your hands. Although there is no definitive data confirming that hand washing is necessarily better, gloves are just as contaminated as a person’s hands. If someone wears gloves for prolonged periods of time, and are touching their face or other surfaces with the gloves, they’re not helping themselves at all. Hence, washing hands or carrying hand sanitizer is an easier and more sensible solution."

PREVIOUS CORONAVIRUS QUESTIONS

Is it safe to ride in elevators?

Can the virus be spread from swimming?

If I already had the coronavirus, am I now immune to it?

Is a face mask really effective in preventing the spread of the virus?
   3937. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 25, 2020 at 12:32 PM (#5953346)
Recent study estimates that 10% of Boston residents have antibodies. Worldometers says the state of Massachusetts has a 0.09% total death rate. So, 0.09% out of 10% equals about 1% - maybe more if Boston has a higher fatality rate than the state as a whole. Now that we appear to have settled on what seem to be a more consistently reliable set of antibody tests with proper sampling protocols, the results seem to have converged pretty consistently to an IFR of 1% (plus whatever you believe is appropriate re: excess mortality) - New York, Stockholm, now Boston all pretty much agree. Which makes the CDC estimate of 0.26% that Aunt Bea referenced last page (and in #3909 on this page) all the more inexplicably bizarre.
   3938. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 25, 2020 at 12:45 PM (#5953347)
#3937 IFR based on Spain’s antibody survey — the largest to date — was 1.2% based only on confirmed deaths in hospitals. Probably close to 2% if you include probable COVID deaths and deaths in nursing homes (2.6% in Catalonia when you include those numbers). It was pretty consistent across provinces — every province with a >4% infection rate had at least a 1.1% implied IFR.

It is like living in the twilight zone right now, where the science should be pretty much settled and the CDC and certain scientists who have the public ear are pushing some alternate reality.
   3939. PreservedFish Posted: May 25, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5953348)
What is the IFR if you look at places that were never considered hotspots? Do we have antibodies tests for them to begin with?
   3940. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 25, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5953349)
What is the IFR if you look at places that were never considered hotspots? Do we have antibodies tests for them to begin with?


New York state - and possibly also Sweden - released some results by region/county. The big problem is that no place that hasn't become a "hotspot" has an infection rate higher than about 3% (which, by the way, is pretty telling in a scary sort of way - it really only takes maybe 5% of your population to get infected for your hospitals to get overwhelmed and your dead to start piling up) and a 3% infection rate starts to run into serious problems with false positive rates. But that said, it's certainly plausible that the IFR would be lower in places with lower infection rates.

This shows NY antibody test results by region
And here, Worldometers breaks out NY deaths by county

I'm not familiar with how regions translate to counties and you'd have to look up populations to scale things. And the antibody results are as of like May 2nd, so there's a timing lag. But the data are there if somebody wanted to crunch some numbers (I think someone probably already did earlier in this thread).
   3941. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 25, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5953350)
Not all Trump supporters are stupid, you know that. The one's who aren't stupid are amoral pigs.

Thanks for clearing that up, bunkie.

Trump won Staten Island (Richmond County).

And my county, Orange: one of 200 or so (out of ~700) counties that voted for Trump after voting for Obama twice. We've had over 10K cases and some 360 deaths, more than about half the 50 states. (Well, at least some of the right people are dying, amirite...?)
   3942. Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 25, 2020 at 01:12 PM (#5953354)
(Well, at least some of the right people are dying, amirite...?)


You mean that every time a Trump supporter dies of COVID an angel gets its wings?
   3943. Jay Z Posted: May 25, 2020 at 01:17 PM (#5953356)
and the 1919 season only had 140 games.


But that was a scheduled 140 games. They played the full schedule, so doesn't count.
   3944. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 25, 2020 at 01:24 PM (#5953357)
But that was a scheduled 140 games. They played the full schedule, so doesn't count.


So, without his 17 game cup of coffee in 1994, would Alex Rodriguez count? 1995 was scheduled to be 144 games. And ARod was not affected by the work stoppage in 1994. He was sent down on Jul 30, with a .445 OPS, 2 weeks before the strike.
   3945. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 25, 2020 at 01:25 PM (#5953358)
What is the IFR if you look at places that were never considered hotspots? Do we have antibodies tests for them to begin with?

It's hard to have much confidence about such figures. If the antibody tests have even a modest false positive rate, then anywhere that has a very low infection rate (and especially places that didn't do a large number of antibody tests), the potential for false positives creates wide error bars around the results. Even in Sweden I think that's the case, given they only tested 1,100 people nationwide (they probably had only 20-30 positive antibody tests in Stockholm, depending on how weighted their survey was to that region. This was also just one of the problems with the early Santa Clara County study that came up with an IFR of 0.12-0.2%.)

But in New York State, excluding NYC, Long Island, Westchester and Rockland Counties the antibody testing showed 3.3% of people were infected in the "rest of" the state. The IFR implied by that was 0.7% as of May 11, which was probably around 2 weeks after the antibody tests were conducted (I don't know the exact dates they were conducted). Again, this is just based on "confirmed" COVID deaths, as NYS does not disclose "probable" COVID deaths -- only NYC does that.

In Spain, if you just look at regions that had <2% of people testing positive for antibodies (Asturias, Canary Islands, Ceuta, Melilla, and Murcia), you get an implied IFR of 0.8%. This is an area with 4.8 million residents, an antibody rate of 1.6% and 609 deaths.

If you look at regions that had <3% testing positive for antibodies (the ones listed above, plus Andalucia, Balearic Islands, Valencia, and Galicia), the area expands to 22.3 million residents, 2.3% testing positive for antibodies, and 4,127 deaths -- again, an 0.8% IFR.

In Spain, the data above is based on deaths as of May 16, FYI. I have not brought it forward but it won't have changed very much. And once again, it only includes "confirmed" COVID deaths in hospitals.
   3946. JJ1986 Posted: May 25, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5953359)
RMc has become a very odd troll.
   3947. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 25, 2020 at 01:27 PM (#5953360)
You mean that every time a Trump supporter dies of COVID an angel gets its wings?

I'm imaging Nick Adenhart flying away, with a smile on his face.

Re 3946: You're misusing the word "troll". Again.
   3948. PreservedFish Posted: May 25, 2020 at 01:35 PM (#5953361)
Thanks for the very good response, Dave.
   3949. Jay Z Posted: May 25, 2020 at 01:41 PM (#5953363)
So, without his 17 game cup of coffee in 1994, would Alex Rodriguez count? 1995 was scheduled to be 144 games. And ARod was not affected by the work stoppage in 1994. He was sent down on Jul 30, with a .445 OPS, 2 weeks before the strike.


1995 was scheduled to be 162 games. If the union players had stayed out and the scabs played, it would have been 162 games, right? They only adjusted after the settlement.
   3950. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 25, 2020 at 01:46 PM (#5953365)
That's some pretty fine parsing.
   3951. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 25, 2020 at 01:50 PM (#5953366)
1995 was scheduled to be 162 games. If the union players had stayed out and the scabs played, it would have been 162 games, right? They only adjusted after the settlement.


And 1919 was supposed to be 154 games except that the owners were nervous about how many fans would turn out in the wake of World War I and the Spanish flu so they unilaterally shortened the season. I think both 1919 and 1995 count as "shortened" seasons for the purpose of this exercise. I mean, if the 2020 season gets played, they're going to release a revised official schedule beforehand. If the season then gets played as scheduled with no subsequent cancellations (outside of the occasional rainout), we'd all still consider that a "shortened" season right - heck, isn't that the basis of this conversation; that players active in 2020 will have all suffered through a "shortened" season.
   3952. bobm Posted: May 25, 2020 at 01:55 PM (#5953368)
Coronavirus: Revisiting other disrupted MLB seasons with baseball on hold in 2020

1918-19

In April of 1917, the U.S. declared war on Germany and thus entered World War I, then known as the Great War. The following year, U.S. Secretary of War Newton D. Baker issued a "work or fight" edict, in which able-bodied men were required to enlist or work in civilian industries deemed necessary to the war effort. By the midsummer, rosters were significantly compromised because of conscription. MLB was forced to end the 1918 regular season on Sept. 2 -- non-essential industry was to shut down by Labor Day -- and was allowed to resume only for the playing of the World Series over a span of two weeks. Teams wound up playing between 122 and 129 games that season rather than the scheduled 140 (prior to the season, owners had agreed to scale back from the usual 154 games because of the war effort).

Not long after the Red Sox defeated the Cubs in the 1918 World Series, the war ended. However, the global conflict reverberated into the following year, and the 1919 season didn't get underway until late April. As was the initial intent in 1918, the 1919 regular season was shortened to 140 games.

[Emphasis added]
   3953. Howie Menckel Posted: May 25, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5953370)
1919 "counts" as far as I see it - seems like the point is whether players had the opportunity to play a schedule of 154, or later 162, games.

a rainout or two for a 70-90 record, no that doesn't count.

to be fair, 1919 never had a 154-game schedule, while 2020 had a 162-game schedule.

hmm, NL 1900-03 and AL 1901-03 perhaps are the most interesting cases. they each only had 140-game schedules, like 1919.

so it's a little tricky.
   3954. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 25, 2020 at 02:04 PM (#5953371)
But that was a scheduled 140 games. They played the full schedule, so doesn't count.

So, without his 17 game cup of coffee in 1994, would Alex Rodriguez count? 1995 was scheduled to be 144 games.

Good point. You might say that the only reason it was 144 games was because of the carryover of the strike through 1995. But then since A-Rod didn't get called up from Tacoma until the 1995 season was two weeks old, you could say that the strike didn't affect his streak.
   3955. baxter Posted: May 25, 2020 at 02:05 PM (#5953372)
Re 3925, article in NYT which is available on MSN, an interesting perspective urban/rural, discusses population density:

What the Coronavirus Revealed About Life in Red vs. Blue States

Link on MSN:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/what-the-coronavirus-revealed-about-life-in-red-vs-blue-states/ar-BB14yb1n?li=BBnb7Kz
   3956. puck Posted: May 25, 2020 at 02:18 PM (#5953374)
From the 3955 article:

In the country as a whole, outbreaks in conservative rural counties are rising, but not on a scale that would close the gap in the virus’s impact on red and blue counties.


That is interesting. Is that because there's not enough population density? Are most of the rural outbreaks in confined spaces like meat packing plants, prisons and nursing homes, as that article seems to suggest, and does that not spread further into the community to the degree it would an urban setting? Seems like rural folks would still go to restaurants, church etc, which could lead to spread of the virus.
   3957. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 25, 2020 at 02:25 PM (#5953376)
Going back to this:

Recent study estimates that 10% of Boston residents have antibodies. Worldometers says the state of Massachusetts has a 0.09% total death rate. So, 0.09% out of 10% equals about 1% - maybe more if Boston has a higher fatality rate than the state as a whole.

I dislike using the data like this because infection and fatality rates can vary so widely by city or county within any given state. And I think this is another one of the problems with some of the early studies from Europe that purported to show a very low IFR. They would only do tests in one town, and then extrapolate those antibody results to a broader region to estimate an IFR. I think that unless you have fatality data and randomly sampled antibody testing covering the same region, you can't calculate an IFR.

That being said, we do have Mass. data by county, and Boston is ~85% of the population of Suffolk County. So I'll allow it in this case, just mentally add some larger-than-normal error bars. Suffolk County has a population of 803,907 people as of 2019 and currently has 838 deaths. If you extrapolate 10% positive antibody tests to the county, you get 80,391 infected.

However, the article notes that they excluded people who had already tested positive for COVID from the antibody testing. So I think you need to add the county's 17,417 positive COVID tests to that denominator, which would get you to 97,808 previously or currently infected. And Suffolk County has had 838 deaths, which implies an 0.86% IFR. As more people die, that number will go up a bit.

Which is basically a long-winded way of saying that I agree with Kiko's earlier post :)
   3958. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 25, 2020 at 02:29 PM (#5953377)
Delaware's an interesting counter-point to the urban-rural thing. Delaware is, of course, tiny, so it only has three counties. (I have relatives living in all three, which is why I care about this.) Here's Delaware's COVID-19 page.

Northern Delaware is New Castle county. This contains Wilmington, which is by far Delaware's largest city, and borders New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, very close to Philadelphia, and reasonably close to Baltimore. It has a population density of 1,311.6 people per sq. mi. (land area only). It has 3,436 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 149 deaths. Those work out to 0.6% and 0.027% of the population, respectively.

The middle of Delaware is Kent county. It's pretty rural, but includes Dover as well as Rehobeth Beach, the largest resort in the state. It has a population density of 308.5 people per sq. mi. It has 1,356 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 56 deaths, which are 0.75% and 0.031% of the population, respectively.

Southern Delaware is Sussex county, which is entirely rural. According to Wikipedia, the largest "city" in Sussex County Delaware is Seaford, which is barely a town, much less a "city". My parents lived there for many years and Delino Deshields Sr. graduated from Seaford High School. Per Wikipedia, Seaford, Delaware has a population of 7,861 people.

Sussex County has a population density of 250 people per sq. mi. It has 4,118 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 126 deaths, which are 1.76% and 0.05% of the population, respectively.

What I've heard from folks in the area (I grew up in Wicomico County, Maryland, which is directly south of Sussex County, Delaware) is that the chicken processing plants in the area have been the primary source of outbreak there.
   3959. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 25, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5953382)
Actually, Boston reports 618 COVID deaths and 12,511 cases. And a population of about 690k. So that gets you to an IFR of ~0.75% based on reported data to date.
   3960. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 25, 2020 at 02:58 PM (#5953383)
If it's chicken factories, then how's your home county doing? Isn't Perdue in Salisbury?
   3961. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 25, 2020 at 03:11 PM (#5953386)
If it's chicken factories, then how's your home county doing? Isn't Perdue in Salisbury?


Yes, Perdue's in Salisbury. I just checked Maryland's numbers. Wicomico County has 892 confirmed cases and 22 deaths. Using Wikipedia's population estimate (103,609), that's 0.86% and 0.021%. For Baltimore city, they have 4,888 cases, 234 deaths (225 confirmed, 9 probable), and (per Wikipedia) a population of 620,961, which works out to 0.79% and 0.038%, respectively. So, Wicomico County has a slightly higher overall rate of COVID-19 than the city of Baltimore, but a lower death rate. Which either means they're catching a higher percentage of actual cases in Wicomico County - which is plausible; I would guess that once they find a case in a chicken processing plant, they try to test everybody in the plant - or that the folks who catch it in Wicomico County tend to be younger - which I would also guess is true, since you're not likely to find a lot of 80-year-olds working in chicken processing plants.

But overall, Wicomico County seems to be doing better than Sussex County, Delaware (but probably worse than New Castle, at least in terms of cases). Although since they're in different states, I'd be a bit more cautious about comparing the raw case totals.

My sister was a nurse at the hospital in Salisbury for several years and she's still in touch with a lot of people who still work there. I haven't heard about overcrowding or filling up, but they're definitely dealing with a steady stream of COVID cases. My sister's shared several videos on Facebook of patients being released - they play "Here Comes the Sun" throughout the hospital whenever a COVID patient gets discharged.
   3962. Howie Menckel Posted: May 25, 2020 at 03:42 PM (#5953393)
My sister's shared several videos on Facebook of patients being released - they play "Here Comes the Sun" throughout the hospital whenever a COVID patient gets discharged.

about a month ago I saw that a New Jersey hospital was doing that. pretty emotional moments for all concerned. I hope they do it all over the country - hell, world.
   3963. Laser Man Posted: May 25, 2020 at 04:13 PM (#5953398)
Different cities play different songs when their Covid-19 patients are discharged. In Philly, it's the theme from "Rocky." Detroit hospitals play "Don't Stop Believin." University Hospital in Newark plays "Who Says You Can't Go Home?" by Bon Jovi. A hospital in Boston plays "Happy" by Pharrell Williams. It does seem like most hospitals do play a special song to celebrate a Covid patient going home.
   3964. Lassus Posted: May 25, 2020 at 04:14 PM (#5953399)
What is the IFR if you look at places that were never considered hotspots? Do we have antibodies tests for them to begin with?

I saw my doctor last week, who I generally trust as honest and smart, and he said Oneida County (Utica/Rome) didn't have a lot of antibody tests around and that they were mostly crap.

Has anyone heard any of the latter?
   3965. Lassus Posted: May 25, 2020 at 04:24 PM (#5953400)
Re 3946: You're misusing the word "troll". Again.
ORLY?
In internet slang, a troll is a person who starts flame wars or upsets people on the Internet by posting inflammatory and digressive,[1] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses
So, tell the internet how the internet's definition of "internet troll" doesn't meet this standard for below. Oughtta be good.
Re 3925: It's a b*tch when smart people die and stupid people get to live, ain't it?
   3966. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 25, 2020 at 04:24 PM (#5953401)
I'm afraid to ask what songs they play if somebody dies.
   3967. McCoy Posted: May 25, 2020 at 04:25 PM (#5953403)
Macarena
   3968. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 25, 2020 at 04:41 PM (#5953404)
I’m afraid to ask what song they play if someone dies


Liza Minelli’s version of “New York, New York”
   3969. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 25, 2020 at 04:49 PM (#5953406)
Staten Islanders with masks drive out non-mask wearing person in grocery store. #Coronavirus

pic.twitter.com/iPQwk7lD9y

— McAuley (@McauleyHolmes) May 25, 2020
   3970. puck Posted: May 25, 2020 at 05:11 PM (#5953410)
Is there any info the rough proportions of levels of illness with covid-19 infections? Granted, fatality rates and hospitalizations are hard enough to track. But there are people who develop pneumonia but don't have to be admitted to an ICU. Then there are what seem like many people (most of us probably know someone like this) had what is like a flu from hell. Rode it out at home with some combo of fever, chills, extreme fatigue, stomach problems, extreme headaches, and were basically useless (unable to work, be a parent etc.) for 2-3 weeks as a result.

Even that latter thing alone is no small thing when so few employees have sick leave. 3 weeks is many people's entire year of PTO.
   3971. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 25, 2020 at 05:22 PM (#5953412)
Staten Islanders with masks drive out non-mask wearing person in grocery store. #Coronavirus



Oooooh, in Trumpcountry
   3972. . Posted: May 25, 2020 at 05:33 PM (#5953415)
The definition in 3965 seems unsurprisingly to be almost entirely groupthink-reinforcing.
   3973. Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 25, 2020 at 05:50 PM (#5953416)

3972...Occasionally the group gets it right.
   3974. Greg K Posted: May 25, 2020 at 06:09 PM (#5953418)
I think there's a degree of intent built in.

If you're being deliberately provocative because you get off on getting a reaction out of people, you're a troll.
If you're being deliberately provocative to stir people out of their complacent acceptance of the status quo, you're fighting the good fight (or possibly just an arrogant jackass).
   3975. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 25, 2020 at 06:16 PM (#5953419)
If you're being deliberately provocative to stir people out of their complacent acceptance of the status quo, you're fighting the good fight


Except it doesn't seem to be an effective strategy, so no
   3976. Greg K Posted: May 25, 2020 at 06:22 PM (#5953421)
Yeah, apologies if I wasn't clear....the "possibly" in parenthesis was meant to be something of an understatement.
   3977. Howie Menckel Posted: May 25, 2020 at 07:03 PM (#5953428)
Different cities play different songs when their Covid-19 patients are discharged. In Philly, it's the theme from "Rocky." Detroit hospitals play "Don't Stop Believin." University Hospital in Newark plays "Who Says You Can't Go Home?" by Bon Jovi. A hospital in Boston plays "Happy" by Pharrell Williams.


I love all of these. and "New York, New York" at least starts off with a bang: "Start spreadin' the news, I'm leavin' today........"
   3978. Lassus Posted: May 25, 2020 at 07:17 PM (#5953432)
Detroit hospitals play "Don't Stop Believin."

Isn't there a... Detroit-ier song for there, rather than a Bay Area band?


The definition in 3965 seems unsurprisingly to be almost entirely groupthink-reinforcing.

It's literally the internet's definition, from Wikipedia. Feel free to find me a definition you like better, or make one up. I'd be interested what is come up with.
   3979. Tony S Posted: May 25, 2020 at 07:28 PM (#5953435)
Detroit hospitals play "Don't Stop Believin."

Isn't there a... Detroit-ier song for there, rather than a Bay Area band?


Well, there's that odd "South Detroit" reference in the song... (Windsor?) :)

   3980. SoSH U at work Posted: May 25, 2020 at 07:29 PM (#5953436)
Isn't there a... Detroit-ier song for there, rather than a Bay Area band?


Kick out the Jams.
   3981. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 25, 2020 at 07:30 PM (#5953437)
Isn't there a... Detroit-ier song for there, rather than a Bay Area band?


I'm Shakin' by Jack White
   3982. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 25, 2020 at 07:31 PM (#5953438)
I’m afraid to ask what song they play if someone dies


Liza Minelli’s version of “New York, New York”

No, that would have been be the cause of death.
   3983. Snowboy Posted: May 25, 2020 at 07:32 PM (#5953439)
Well, there's that odd "South Detroit" reference in the song... (Windsor?) :)


Damn Canadian hijackers ;)
   3984. Lassus Posted: May 25, 2020 at 07:39 PM (#5953442)
I guess I would go for one of a billion Motown classics.
   3985. . Posted: May 25, 2020 at 08:24 PM (#5953444)
3978:

Oh it is the internet’s definition. No surprise there — the arc of the internet’s moral universe very much bends toward groupthink. Definitions and principles will therefore be built around that.
   3986. puck Posted: May 25, 2020 at 08:31 PM (#5953445)
Restaurants in CO will open dining rooms Wed 5/27; 50% of capacity or 50 people max, whichever is fewer.

Sounds like attendance has been sparse in other states where this has been done.
   3987. RJ in TO Posted: May 25, 2020 at 08:50 PM (#5953447)
Sounds like attendance has been sparse in other states where this has been done.
Is that surprising? I'd have to imagine most people would still be very reluctant to go back to normal dining out. Also, for restaurants where 50 people max is less than half their capacity, I can't see most of them bothering to open their dining rooms, as the additional staffing/utilities/overhead costs plus the risk to their staff seem almost guaranteed to make it a money losing proposition.
   3988. Ron J Posted: May 25, 2020 at 08:55 PM (#5953449)
Yeah, I enjoy the pub a half block away and I'll give them some takeout business. But there's no way I am eating at a sitdown place in the foreseeable future.
   3989. Lassus Posted: May 25, 2020 at 08:55 PM (#5953450)
#3985 - You were given an invitation to improve upon said definition. Show us all where they're wrong.

Or just dispute the very existence of internet trolls.

Anything?
   3990. RJ in TO Posted: May 25, 2020 at 08:59 PM (#5953451)
There's a Chinese restaurant near here that's been around for probably close to 30 years. It's a huge space, to the point where they can handle multiple wedding receptions at the same time. A big part of their business is dim sum on weekends, where they're normally absolutely packed. They're basically doomed now, as their space is too big to survive on takeout only, they can't pack the house like they need to in order to make a profit and, even if they could, there's no one who would want to get dim sum from the push carts that circle the restaurant under the current circumstances.
   3991. NaOH Posted: May 25, 2020 at 09:30 PM (#5953454)
Puck:
Restaurants in CO will open dining rooms Wed 5/27; 50% of capacity or 50 people max, whichever is fewer.


RJ:
I'd have to imagine most people would still be very reluctant to go back to normal dining out. Also, for restaurants where 50 people max is less than half their capacity, I can't see most of them bothering to open their dining rooms, as the additional staffing/utilities/overhead costs plus the risk to their staff seem almost guaranteed to make it a money losing proposition.


It might not be wise to underestimate the desire of Coloradans to go out. I took a walk with a friend today on a basic trail and we probably saw hundreds of other walkers, bikers, and joggers. (With few exceptions, people were all either wearing a face covering or pulled one up when approaching others.) Being outside is a frame of mind along the Colorado Front Range. And in terms of restaurants, what puck noted is separate from the state and local actions to enable outdoor seating—closing streets, repurposing adjacent parking lots, etc. I know among my restaurant-type customers, some can put this to use and some can't, and what will determine that is likely tied more to the layout of their space and the street and lots around them.
   3992. Howie Menckel Posted: May 25, 2020 at 09:56 PM (#5953456)
I live a half-mile from a restaurant/bar where they have a "garage door" front wall exactly for days like this one was - mid-70s, no humidity, sun's a shining in North Jersey.

they could easily just use one-third of the outdoor tables and one-half of the 'borderline' ones that get fresh air but aren't at the bar.

make it one-hour reservations only, no lines allowed outside. masks unless eating or drinking, and so on.

virtually 100 pct cooperation here re masks inside and social distancing.

we already got our asses kicked 'round here, with more than 1.5 pct of my county already officially infected from this and with the bulk of the more than 11K deaths in the state being in this region. as I have mentioned before, 9-11 and Hurricane Sandy, too, hit so hard - along with the universal hits like this and the 2008 economic collapse. the region seems willing to compromise.

feud developing between bitter D rivals the Gov and the state Senate President on how quickly to further 'loosen the spigot.'

June will be an interesting month in many states like this one.
   3993. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 25, 2020 at 09:57 PM (#5953457)
The Ignore function is your friend, folks.
   3994. Howie Menckel Posted: May 25, 2020 at 10:07 PM (#5953462)
since the point was raised, yes, ignore has been my friend here of late. it's like a disinfectant on the thread.

but enough about the virus

:)
   3995. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 25, 2020 at 10:35 PM (#5953469)
For some lighter COVID-related news:

SKorean Soccer Team Accused of Putting Sex Dolls in Seats

SEOUL, South Korea — A South Korean soccer club has apologized after being accused of putting sex dolls in empty seats during a match.

FC Seoul expressed “sincere remorse” over the controversy, but insisted in a statement that it used mannequins — not sex dolls — to mimic a home crowd during Sunday's 1-0 win over Gwangju FC at the Seoul World Cup Stadium....

FC Seoul said it was attempting to add “an element of fun” with the mannequins. The team said it was repeatedly reassured by Dalkom, the company that produced the mannequins, that they weren’t sexual products.

But when providing its products for the stadium, Dalkom reused some of the mannequins it previously supplied to another company, FC Seoul said.

The club's statement didn’t directly address criticism of why it chose to work with Dalkom, which does manufacture sex dolls, according to the company’s website, or why nearly all the mannequins at the stadium were female in design.


Not great when your best defense is “but they were *used* sex dolls” :-)

   3996. puck Posted: May 25, 2020 at 10:39 PM (#5953470)
NaOH: will be interesting to see how they adapt. I imagine patio/outdoor seating would be pretty popular.

Are all your clients going to try to open up at 50% capacity?
   3997. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: May 25, 2020 at 10:43 PM (#5953471)
Isn't there a... Detroit-ier song for there, rather than a Bay Area band?

Gotta be Detroit Rock City.
   3998. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 25, 2020 at 10:46 PM (#5953472)

“Reason to Live” may be a bit too on-point, but something by KISS would also work for Detroit.
   3999. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 25, 2020 at 10:48 PM (#5953473)
Coke to 3997.
   4000. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 25, 2020 at 10:49 PM (#5953474)
KISS is a NYC band.
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