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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 6438 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   4001. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 25, 2020 at 10:52 PM (#5953475)
Flip
   4002. Cleveland (need new name) fan Posted: May 25, 2020 at 10:53 PM (#5953476)
"Like a Rock" by Bob Seager
   4003. Nasty Nate Posted: May 25, 2020 at 10:59 PM (#5953477)
What's the problem with using sex dolls as fake spectators in empty stadiums?
   4004. PreservedFish Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:01 PM (#5953479)
You're all wrong. Detroit's song must be the uplifting "Miracles," by favorite sons Insane Clown Posse.

I see miracles all around me
Stop and look around, it's all astounding
Water, fire, air, and dirt
####### madness, how do they work?

   4005. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:12 PM (#5953481)

####### madness, how do they work?


Mondegreen here?
   4006. Snowboy Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:12 PM (#5953482)
I think that was ####### magnets, how do they work?
And that's 4:22 of my life I'll never get back.
Well, less than that, I clicked X before they finished, if they ever did.
That was atrocious.
And I bought Run DMC's "Raisin' Hell" on vinyl in 1986, so I'm not opposed to rap or hip hop.
   4007. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:13 PM (#5953483)
What's the problem with using sex dolls as fake spectators in empty stadiums?
Some of the dolls were holding up signs with the sex toy company's name on it. I read somewhere the league has a rule against ads for adult toy companies, which would justify the fine the team received, if you couldn't find any other reason to fine them.
   4008. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:17 PM (#5953485)
Yes, another article mentions that they didn’t change the dolls’ clothing, which had logos of the sex toy makers on them. Not a big deal, although I find it amusing that so many fans could recognize them as sex dolls and apparently complained.
   4009. PreservedFish Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:20 PM (#5953486)
"Magnets" makes it even better!
   4010. NaOH Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:25 PM (#5953488)
puck Posted: May 25, 2020 at 10:39 PM (#5953470)
NaOH: will be interesting to see how they adapt. I imagine patio/outdoor seating would be pretty popular.

Are all your clients going to try to open up at 50% capacity?


Prior to the governor's announcement today, I was under the impression that Bohemian Biergarten would try to open in downtown Boulder. I haven't heard anything yet from some of the bigger area breweries I serve, but among those my guess is that Sanitas and Avery will open just by virtue of their indoor and outdoor spaces. Upslope is harder to judge just because of the layout of their spots. As you know, the weather is well-suited for outdoor dining/drinking, so I'd guess nearly everyone will do anything they can to expand customer capacity just because I would think not doing so is a mortal threat after the last two+ months.
   4011. Snowboy Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:27 PM (#5953489)
re 4009: got me. got us. LOL.
(Seriously, don't click that link.)
It's the video equivalent of this woman. And if you click that pic link, you are young around here.
Thanks for laugh, PF.
   4012. Hot Wheeling American Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:30 PM (#5953490)
Magnets was a whole thing!

Ten Years of ‘Miracles’
It was a watershed moment for internet culture, the sort of meme with real staying power even a decade later, and a precursor to music videos that rise to prominence by confounding and confusing their audience. Two years later, “Gangnam Style” would become the most-watched YouTube video, and music videos continue to leap-frog each other on their way up the YouTube ranks (“See You Again,” “Despacito,” and so on). Internet culture now chews up and spits out fodder at hyperspeed, but “Fuckin’ magnets, how do they work?” will persist forever.

...

In 2010 though, a time when Neil DeGrasse Tyson’s scientific pedantry was still cool, it was ridiculed at length: for its lack of scientific literacy, for its inane lyrics, and for its syrupy sweetness. At the same time, the music video and the song evoked a naive curiosity that is still prevalent all over the web, though in a more self-aware form, like Reddit’s r/ShowerThoughts, a database of faux-profound epiphanies that people had in the shower. (“If your shirt isn’t tucked into your pants, then your pants are tucked into your shirt.”)

“The music video is not merely dumb, but enthusiastically dumb, endorsing a ferocious breed of ignorance that can only be described as militant,” the vlogger Zinnia Jones said in a breakdown of “Miracles” shortly after it debuted.
   4013. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:31 PM (#5953491)
"Magnets" makes it even better!
that's the joke.


fun fact:
the FBI has the insane clown posse on their watch list.
   4014. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:34 PM (#5953492)
I think that was ####### magnets, how do they work?
And that's 4:22 of my life I'll never get back.
Well, less than that, I clicked X before they finished, if they ever did.
That was atrocious.

in fairness:

it's not worse than "we didn't start the fire"
   4015. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:37 PM (#5953493)
"Like a Rock" by Bob Seager
Clearly the right answer.
   4016. Srul Itza At Home Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:44 PM (#5953494)
I have no idea what you people are talking about, but it makes me think of this.
   4017. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 25, 2020 at 11:46 PM (#5953495)
I have no idea what you people are talking about, but it makes me think of this.
clearly, pinkman was a juggaler
   4018. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 26, 2020 at 12:31 AM (#5953500)
Never listened to any ICP song before tonight, and was expecting the worst. "Miracles" didn't disappoint.

I was surprised to find some of their other songs not terrible. The horrorcore production on some of them is catchy and some of the lyrics mildly amusing.

Doubt I'll be venturing back into that world any time soon, but I'd put their entire catalog at only slightly worse than what I'm subjected to at the gym.

   4019. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: May 26, 2020 at 12:42 AM (#5953501)
As a life-long Michigander and someone who was a young teenager during the peak of ICP's popularity (around Michigan, anyway), it was inevitable that I be more familiar with their catalog than I care to admit. The whole Joker Card album gimmick they dragged out for nearly 10 years seemed brilliant to 13-year-old me. As I recall, I'd moved on to other shitty music by time the group "revealed" the final card.
   4020. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 26, 2020 at 01:10 AM (#5953504)
Excess deaths in Mexico City counted by one group to be near 8000 (up to May 20), where official COVID deaths were only around 2000.
   4021. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 26, 2020 at 01:25 AM (#5953505)
Supposedly about 40% of Swedes and 40% of Japanese live alone.
   4022. PreservedFish Posted: May 26, 2020 at 01:27 AM (#5953506)
Are you counting pillow spouses?
   4023. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: May 26, 2020 at 03:14 AM (#5953509)
That was atrocious.


You, sir, should have your children taken away.

That video stands along side the Sistine Chapel as one of the greatest works of humanity.
   4024. Slutty Nutkins (CoB). Posted: May 26, 2020 at 03:33 AM (#5953510)
Because ... every time I think ... that's dumb turned to 11 ... you can't get dumber than that?

I fed a fish to a pelican at 'Frisco bay
It tried to eat my cell phone,
he ran away
   4025. Eddo Posted: May 26, 2020 at 05:19 AM (#5953511)
Not great when your best defense is “but they were *used* sex dolls” :-)

Why does this need a defense? People weren't using the sex dolls in the stands. Hell, they weren't even near real people who might find them gross.

EDIT: I see this was asked and answered (from a league policy perspective). My fault for replying before I turned the page.
   4026. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: May 26, 2020 at 05:47 AM (#5953512)
Chart from another source: estimated/tested percentages of various populations showing antibodies for Covid-19: From AEI. Short summary: France, Sweden, Spain all around 5%. Paris, Wuhan around 10%. NYC around 20%.
   4027. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 26, 2020 at 08:35 AM (#5953513)
Detroit hospitals play "Don't Stop Believin."

Isn't there a... Detroit-ier song for there, rather than a Bay Area band?

Well, there's that odd "South Detroit" reference in the song... (Windsor?) :)


As a Michigander, I can tell you that there ain't no such place as "South Detroit". Detroiters refer to "East Side" and "West Side", but not north or south (except to say "8 Mile" and "Downriver").
   4028. PreservedFish Posted: May 26, 2020 at 08:35 AM (#5953514)
Well, that's terrifying.
   4029. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 26, 2020 at 08:56 AM (#5953520)
there ain't no such place as "South Detroit".

Well, that's terrifying.


I know. Be strong.
   4030. Zonk WARRIORS ALONE! Posted: May 26, 2020 at 09:08 AM (#5953524)
My company just extended its global Work From Home directive through the end of September, pending updates and reassessments in August...
   4031. . Posted: May 26, 2020 at 09:18 AM (#5953526)
You were given an invitation to improve upon said definition. Show us all where they're wrong.

Or just dispute the very existence of internet trolls.

Anything?


Isn't that what I already did?

In a forum not otherwise devoted to a particular topic -- say, a "New York Rangers" forum -- it's very difficult to actually be a "troll" as opposed to just being an #######. Let's take an example. If someone happens upon an otherwise public website and finds a significant majority faction avidly and loudly putting forward the proposition that steroid use in baseball is no big deal and that Champ Summers and Lee Lacy, just as Barry Bonds, also had late career surges, it isn't "trolling" in the least to push back on such nonsense. The pushback can be done in an #######-ish fashion, to be sure, but the mere questioning of that dogma isn't trolling, as the definition would appear to hold.

The problem is that groupthinkers get so devoted to the groupthink on the internet that they take any pushback as "inflammatory" and therefore as "trolling." That's what I meant by the definition being groupthink-reinforcing. The Jack Morris situation is another example. There are many around here, and around the internet in general -- so the definition is pretty massively overbroad.

Any ostensibly open internet forum will inevitably revert to groupthink on virtually every issue and dissent from that groupthink will therefore invariably be called "trolling." At this late date, it's like the Iron Law of the Internet.

   4032. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 26, 2020 at 09:21 AM (#5953527)

As an avid hip hop fan, I tried listening to ICP about 20 years ago...couldn't get into them but they had a few decent songs.

A couple of years ago, I was home in the middle of a weekday for some reason and turned on the t.v. to see this, which is still one of the strangest things I have ever seen on television.
   4033. . Posted: May 26, 2020 at 09:22 AM (#5953529)
As a Michigander, I can tell you that there ain't no such place as "South Detroit".


"Born and raised right here in Windsor."
   4034. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 26, 2020 at 09:39 AM (#5953534)
4 straight days where Sweden has had more deaths than it did exactly a week before. ICU cases also flat for the last 4 days after declining for weeks. Still early, so could be just a blip.
   4035. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: May 26, 2020 at 09:54 AM (#5953536)
There might be some impact of warmer weather and multiple public holidays in May and June resulting in less safe behaviour in many European countries. Including Easter, quite a few will have 6 public holidays in 10 weeks.
   4036. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 26, 2020 at 09:55 AM (#5953537)

4 straight days where Sweden has had more deaths than it did exactly a week before. ICU cases also flat for the last 4 days after declining for weeks. Still early, so could be just a blip.

Are you looking at date of reporting or date of death?
   4037. Howie Menckel Posted: May 26, 2020 at 10:15 AM (#5953539)
NHL players approve a 24-team 'playoff' that sends 7 teams home until the fall


"Under the plan, the top four seeds in each conference, as determined by their standings points percentage when the regular season was paused on March 12, would receive byes through a round of best-of-five, play-in series featuring seeds 5 through 12. Those play-in series would determine which teams advance to a traditional 16-team Stanley Cup playoff bracket, which would then have seven-game series.

Those top four teams in each conference won't sit idly by. The format calls for these teams to face one another to remain sharp ahead of the next round of the playoffs -- which had been a concern from the players. The top four teams would essentially play some form of a round-robin tournament that would reseed them before the round of 16."
   4038. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 26, 2020 at 10:18 AM (#5953540)
Day reported. This site though seems to back up the projections of a slight increase over the last few days.

edit: you can't use actual date of death unless you go back at least a week, since there are many delays in reporting.
   4039. BrianBrianson Posted: May 26, 2020 at 10:41 AM (#5953543)
My company just extended its global Work From Home directive through the end of September, pending updates and reassessments in August...


Yeah, I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of this. Nominally I was accepted into a programme that trains people with PhDs to teach high school - in England. They're proceeding for the moment like everything will be back to normal by mid august when they run a training camp, but I'd say that looks extremely unlikely. It's mostly for Brits (which I ain't) - normally they can do immigration sponsorship for math/physics teachers ... but I'm increasingly skeptical it can be done in time (or even that schools will be running normally enough in September to do an apprenticeship-type deal).
   4040. Ron J Posted: May 26, 2020 at 10:54 AM (#5953545)
I don't know what the future holds specifically for my work, but I predict fits and starts as to what's open when.

I need to get my Secret clearance renewed. I was in and out in under 5 minutes and never came very close to another human.

And yet actually making an appointment was a nightmare. Made initial appointment, got an email saying the government's guidance meant that they wouldn't be open when I was scheduled and did I want to reschedule? Repeat four times. With emails to other people who wanted/needed updates (I'm the guinea pig for updating clearances in the time of Covid-19 so a lot of people want regular status reports)

Mustn't moan too much. I'm spending a lot of time dealing with extra levels of approvals etc, but there are worse fates.
   4041. Eddo Posted: May 26, 2020 at 11:04 AM (#5953548)
My company just extended its global Work From Home directive through the end of September, pending updates and reassessments in August...

Yeah, I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of this

Yep. My company just extended the remote working through August for our offices in Europe and the Americas, intending to do a rotation of departments to minimize office usage starting in September.
   4042. PreservedFish Posted: May 26, 2020 at 11:28 AM (#5953553)
I'm just weirded out by the likelihood that infection risks are going to be a lot worse in a month or two.
   4043. Random Transaction Generator Posted: May 26, 2020 at 11:42 AM (#5953559)
The company I work for (contract, but they are hiring me on full-time at the end of June) sent out a survey to all their employees (across Canada) and asked who would voluntarily return to work in the office if they were re-opened on June 1st.

The result was 18% of the people would return to work in the office.

I said no on the survey, and to the director of my department when he asked us individually. I said the trend line for cases in Ontario is going back up, so I'd rather not work around other people. I believe everyone else on my team in my building also said no to returning in June.

I suspect it will remain voluntary until September, and they'll reassess then.
   4044. RJ in TO Posted: May 26, 2020 at 11:53 AM (#5953561)
Our office, when it re-opens, will apparently be having only one third of staff on site each week, with the other two thirds continuing to work remotely. They have not yet set a date and, given the rising trend lines in Ontario noted by Random Transaction Generator, I also don't expect that date to be before September.
   4045. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 01:08 PM (#5953570)
So, we just crossed 100,000 on Worldometer, and will do so today on whatever Wikipedia uses. Sweden, as AuntBea noted, continues in rough shape; whatever they officially say, I suspect they wouldn't mind a do over.
   4046. Ron J Posted: May 26, 2020 at 02:16 PM (#5953592)
4045 The woman who held Tegnell's job before him has said that Sweden got it wrong. She had backed Tegnell until Sunday.
   4047. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 26, 2020 at 02:20 PM (#5953594)
My wife's employer, a global insurer, announced the office will remain closed until at least Labor Day. And probably at 25% staffing when it does open.
   4048. puck Posted: May 26, 2020 at 02:25 PM (#5953597)
I mentioned my office forced everyone back in. The owners aren't here (convenient). I'm hearing about how everyone's kids are hanging out with all their friends. Thanks, boss, great idea. No problem sitting in small room with everyone and their families, and their families' friends.
   4049. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 02:45 PM (#5953603)
Ron J -- thanks, hadn't heard that. I admire the honesty and the assumed lack of a twitter outburst in its wake.
   4050. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5953605)
My university announced its plan for the fall:

All classes must be designed for in-person and on-line, including online in-person sessions for students who choose not to come and ready to be switched from one modality to the other and back at a moment's notice.

Obviously, the big bucks has nothing to do with planning, leadership, integrity, competence, or simple humanity.
   4051. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 26, 2020 at 02:53 PM (#5953608)
I mentioned my office forced everyone back in. The owners aren't here (convenient).
That's just ####### evil.
   4052. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 26, 2020 at 03:13 PM (#5953614)
Jason Furman, Chair of Obama‘s Council of Economic Advisers, is touting what passes these days for an optimistic economic recovery scenario:
Furman’s case begins with the premise that the 2020 pandemic-triggered economic collapse is categorically different than the Great Depression or the Great Recession, which both had slow, grinding recoveries. Instead, he believes, the way to think about the current economic drop-off, at least in the first two phases, is more like what happens to a thriving economy during and after a natural disaster: a quick and steep decline in economic activity followed by a quick and steep rebound.

The Covid-19 recession started with a sudden shuttering of many businesses, a nationwide decline in consumption and massive increase in unemployment. But starting around April 15, when economic reopening started to spread but the overall numbers still looked grim, Furman noticed some data that pointed to the kind of recovery that economists often see after a hurricane or industrywide catastrophe like the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Consumption and hiring started to tick up “in gross terms, not in net terms,” Furman said, describing the phenomenon as a “partial rebound.” The bounce back “can be very very fast, because people go back to their original job, they get called back from furlough, you put the lights back on in your business. Given how many people were furloughed and how many businesses were closed you can get a big jump out of that. It will look like a V.”
That would be better than a years long downturn, but it will be a while before any pattern emerges. Obviously, there’s a political aspect that is the main focus of the article, but the disaster-recovery comparison seemed worth a mention on its own.
   4053. McCoy Posted: May 26, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5953618)
He's a V recovery proponent. Not too many of those.

For instance a bunch of economists see a lot of furloughed and temporary laid off workers turning into permanently out of work once the dust settles.

There is around 10 million restaurant workers and millions of those are going to be out of work for awhile. Millions in other hospitality industries as well.

Right now there are a lot of businesses that are behind the 8n ball in terms of debt with no real hope of getting out of from under it.
   4054. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 26, 2020 at 03:29 PM (#5953620)
He's a V recovery proponent. Not too many of those.


Yeah, they're getting a lot harder to find. I'm a professional economist and tracking other peoples' forecasts it's still very much the case that virtually everybody's forecast of the economy is worse than it was a week earlier; still waiting for things to level off in that regard. We're basically thinking about it as a "natural disaster" as he suggests, but the danger is that natural disasters sometimes cause recessions. And it's going to be really hard to just flip the switch and turn everything back on - if you open up but your customer base (or a key part of your supply chain) is still locked down, you being open doesn't help a whole lot (see, e.g., Sweden's economy vis-a-vis its neighbors). I tend to think that the economy has probably just about bottomed out right now (or, more precisely, maybe a couple of weeks ago) but even that feels a little optimistic these days and I suspect growth is going to be erratic and frustratingly low probably for the rest of this year at least. But nobody really knows so if you want to argue that I"m being pessimistic, I'm not going to argue too strongly against you (heck, I hope you're right).
   4055. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 26, 2020 at 03:30 PM (#5953621)
My son wanted to resume his friends gathering for games in my basement. I shut that talk down, especially since here in MN things are still getting worse. Right now it feels like I won't be comfortable being fully back in the before days until I am vaccinated or the disease is basically gone from my state - but that could change.

And a V recovery counts on behavior bouncing back rapidly. Seeing as how events in October and November are being canceled and I know huge chunks of people in the same boat as me, well I am not optimistic.
   4056. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 26, 2020 at 03:31 PM (#5953622)
Right now there are a lot of businesses that are behind the 8n ball in terms of debt with no real hope of getting out of from under it.

You would hope there will be a lot of restructuring there. Who wants to take possession of a vacant restaurant or hotel property right now? I'd assume the same with commercial rents. Better to miss three months, and then get half, than to have a vacant space for three years.
   4057. McCoy Posted: May 26, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5953624)
The shutdowns are already happening. Restaurants and hotels that weren’t in the best Of shape before this have closed. Others that were the In better shape are in trouble right now.
   4058. Ron J Posted: May 26, 2020 at 03:45 PM (#5953627)
   4059. Dr. Vaux Posted: May 26, 2020 at 03:46 PM (#5953628)
Hospitality and tourism are big parts of the economy. Even if other segments force their employees back to on-site work and they risk getting sick to keep their jobs, they're still not going to go to restaurants and amusement parks and concerts.

Mayor Bloomberg, are they telling you that you have to have an asynchronous, online version of each course ready to go as well as a provision for synchronous? That's ridiculous! Synchronous is fine, and then you can still let students participate virtually if they choose to after the return to on-site that hopefully doesn't happen during the fall semester unless there's a medical miracle but apparently still will because of political pigheadedness and idiocy.

My college let us choose whether to list each of our classes as synchronous or asynchronous, and we've already been told that classes that start asynchronous will stay that way. I guess we're lucky.
   4060. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5953630)
Thanks Ron, I had looked it up, but I really appreciate your coming back to it..
   4061. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 26, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5953633)
I think more likely we see deflation than we see a V recovery.

   4062. Howie Menckel Posted: May 26, 2020 at 04:06 PM (#5953635)
Dow closed today at its highest level since March 10 - the point at which Tom Hanks and the NBA/Goebert made this disaster all too real.

was just over 25,000 all day - dancing at around +666 for a while - but closed +529.

per CNBC:

"Carnival shares jumped 12.7%. MGM Resorts climbed 8.6%. United Airlines and Southwest Airlines rose more than 11% each.

Southwest got a boost from a UBS upgrade to buy. The analyst said the airline has a “clearer path for domestic travel recovery.” Separately, Macy’s said it has seen “greater demand than we expected” in its reopened stores. Macy’s shares gained 6.4%."
   4063. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 04:07 PM (#5953636)
Dr. Vaux,

This for fall. Essentially they're telling us they think bimodal for everything (word of the month), plus reduced attendance (25% or so per meeting for what are mostly once-a-week classes), while having the class suitable for listening by the students at home, which if we're all in masks becomes interesting, as does blackboard use for those of us dinosaurs who don't like to be leashed to powerpoint.

They're also telling us that they're not making the decision: that departments and programs and teachers will; we just collect checks for making your lives miserable. Cal State had guts; these guys are more like puck's boss.

It's a new admin that has taken over the old admin's response to everything from flood to 9/11: We're open but attendance is optional and students can't be penalized for missing anything important from that class (if there actually was anything important).
   4064. Zonk WARRIORS ALONE! Posted: May 26, 2020 at 04:32 PM (#5953641)
As someone who does have a 401K plus some external investments, I am thrilled to see the "markets" actually having done a "V" - albeit, as a conservative investor, worried that it's a mirage.

As someone who recognizes that using the "markets" means jack #### to the majority of people - but also wants the abomination to lose this fall - I also heartily approve of trumpeting the "markets" as evidence of a "V".
   4065. McCoy Posted: May 26, 2020 at 04:33 PM (#5953642)
Re 4062.

The airlines got hammered in the first quarter so a "big" percentage gain nowadays is largely because they cratered. Same with the other stocks mentioned. Volatility is to be expected
   4066. McCoy Posted: May 26, 2020 at 04:36 PM (#5953643)
   4067. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 04:47 PM (#5953648)
Right, McCoy. And the other side of that is how many Billions Zuckerberg, Bezos, and Buffett each made in the past two months. #MAGA
   4068. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 26, 2020 at 04:52 PM (#5953650)
Colorado's ski resorts have been allowed to reopen.
   4069. Zonk WARRIORS ALONE! Posted: May 26, 2020 at 04:53 PM (#5953651)
Open, don't open...

The fact is - not only can we NOT have nice things.... We don't deserve nice things.
   4070. McCoy Posted: May 26, 2020 at 04:55 PM (#5953652)
Well, they all lost billions the weeks leading up to the gains.
   4071. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 26, 2020 at 05:01 PM (#5953655)
As someone who does have a 401K plus some external investments, I am thrilled to see the "markets" actually having done a "V" - albeit, as a conservative investor, worried that it's a mirage. As someone who recognizes that using the "markets" means jack #### to the majority of people . . .
Zonk wrongly thinking he’s unique, again. 55% of American workers participate in a retirement plan. Lots of folks have pensions, 401(K)s, IRAs & individual investments that include stocks.
   4072. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 05:01 PM (#5953654)
4070 -- Yes, McCoy, that's what I meant when I said "the other side."

It's a concept familiar to all of us here: selective endpoints.

But I don't expect Arte Moreno to bring anyone back.
   4073. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5953656)
rosanne cash
@rosannecash
·
4h
My daughter lives in Nashville & wore her mask to buy groceries. Guy yells at her: ‘Liberal #####!’ Back story: she nearly died of H1N1. She was in the ICU for a week, on a ventilator for 3 days. She CANNOT get covid. The ignorance & hatred is so painful. She’s trying to survive.
   4074. Zonk WARRIORS ALONE! Posted: May 26, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5953657)
As someone who does have a 401K plus some external investments, I am thrilled to see the "markets" actually having done a "V" - albeit, as a conservative investor, worried that it's a mirage. As someone who recognizes that using the "markets" means jack #### to the majority of people . . .
Zonk wrongly thinking he’s unique, again. 55% of American workers participate in a retirement plan. Lots of folks have pensions, 401(K)s, IRAs & individual investments that include stocks.


Clapper wrongly thinking he's being insightful.

My 401k - like most people's - is something I won't be touching; indeed, cannot touch without penalty - for 15 years.

Like everyone's, I prefer it to go up rather than down.

But - it has zero impact on what I eat, where I live, and how well I live.

EDIT: Of course, I should go easier on Clapper. He's unfamiliar with how retirement funding for the private sector works...
   4075. Snowboy Posted: May 26, 2020 at 05:07 PM (#5953658)
from the link in 4069 (edit: and 4073) (a tweet about someone who is immuno-compromised, and was attacked at grocery store for wearing a mask)
I thought one of the replies was quite good: say to the attacker "I work in a Covid unit. So I would stand back unless you want to be infected."
   4076. Ron J Posted: May 26, 2020 at 05:21 PM (#5953661)
4073 We were having a discussion about our Strat league earlier today. Nine members. I'm 64 and three are older than me. We're all reasonably healthy for our age, but Covid-19 is bad news for our age bracket.

We've got another currently doing chemo. Another who has done chemo and another who's been told that because of past issues Covid-19 is really bad news.

Sad, but I can't see any way to resume play. Or even get together for a draft.
   4077. Tony S Posted: May 26, 2020 at 05:23 PM (#5953662)
My daughter lives in Nashville & wore her mask to buy groceries. Guy yells at her: ‘Liberal #####!’


She's wearing a mask, bothering no one, and some idiot takes offense at this. And this kind of thing doesn't seem to be some isolated incident.

It might be time to split this country up.
   4078. Zonk WARRIORS ALONE! Posted: May 26, 2020 at 05:26 PM (#5953663)
It might be time to split this country up.


Not without an arbitrator fairly splitting up the holy, blessed "markets" and who gets what.... We are - obviously - not a community property nation.
   4079. Dr. Vaux Posted: May 26, 2020 at 05:38 PM (#5953665)
It's unfortunate that there isn't a convenient geographic division. It would have to split into four or six countries, or more.

while having the class suitable for listening by the students at home, which if we're all in masks becomes interesting, as does blackboard use for those of us dinosaurs who don't like to be leashed to powerpoint.


Indeed, what to do about the board is going to be the big issue if and when I have to broadcast a class that I'm teaching from onsite. I figure I'll have to do on my screen what I would normally do on the board. I managed to do that this spring, so I guess I'll continue doing it. It's stodgier in some respects, but workable.
   4080. McCoy Posted: May 26, 2020 at 05:40 PM (#5953666)
More like it's time to round up the first wave of people that need to stand next to the wall. .
   4081. Zonk WARRIORS ALONE! Posted: May 26, 2020 at 05:43 PM (#5953667)
   4082. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 05:46 PM (#5953668)
One of the things I learned, Vaux, is that my teaching has a physical dimension I never realized it had. It was hard to incorporate whiteboard into my online because my use of the board is mostly unplanned, a spontaneous reaction to thinking/talking.responding to students/moving around the room, and without motion everything changes. I suppose I sort of knew this from the difference between my grad and undergrad classes, but I'd never thought it through.
   4083. Dr. Vaux Posted: May 26, 2020 at 06:06 PM (#5953670)
I had the same experience. I think that part of why the whole thing was so mentally taxing, aside from the context that necessitated it, was that the lack of movement made me feel more useless--and probably did actually make me more useless.
   4084. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 26, 2020 at 06:09 PM (#5953671)
My 401k - like most people's - is something I won't be touching; indeed, cannot touch without penalty - for 15 years.
. . .
But - it has zero impact on what I eat, where I live, and how well I live.
Well if the markets have zero impact on Zonk, or even his 401(K), I guess that settles it. Never mimd the millions of current retirees dependent on that income stream, or those who may be retirement eligible within a few years and who are making decisions about their plans. All that matters is that Zonk doesn’t care.
   4085. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 26, 2020 at 06:22 PM (#5953675)

I don't really see the argument for a V-shaped recovery. I mean, it may look more V-like than 2008. But there's a lot of things that you won't be able to just turn back on. I don't see international travel coming back soon at anywhere near full capacity, and domestic travel will be depressed as well. And even if industries predicated on face-to-face gatherings -- restaurants, bars, concerts, ballgames, etc. -- reopen it's going to be at much reduced capacity. I just don't see how those things won't have a broader impact across the economy than is currently priced in. But I'm not a stock-picker so this isn't advice.
   4086. Zonk WARRIORS ALONE! Posted: May 26, 2020 at 06:29 PM (#5953676)
My 401k - like most people's - is something I won't be touching; indeed, cannot touch without penalty - for 15 years.
. . .
But - it has zero impact on what I eat, where I live, and how well I live.
Well if the markets have zero impact on Zonk, or even his 401(K), I guess that settles it. Never mimd the millions of current retirees dependent on that income stream, or those who may be retirement eligible within a few years and who are making decisions about their plans. All that matters is that Zonk doesn’t care.


I see reading comprehension for Clapper is on par with quoting skills and his familiarity with how the private sector works.

But, being the friendly sort - allow me to help out.

First, with a time horizon beyond 3/5/pick your confines and also a believer in dollar cost averaging, no. The near-term swings in the "markets" are not something that concern me, nor should they be. That will change in 10-15 years, but for now - any market swings are purely a matter of "Golly, it would be great if the curves just always pointed forever upwards" because hey, while "set it and forget it" is good advice, who doesn't like to look.

Second, and more importantly - since we are mimding retirees and very concerned about their well-being, a retiree really shouldn't have a portfolio - tax advantaged or not - focused on growth. A retiree - or near retiree - should be very conservatively balanced towards stable value, which means a lot more bonds than someone like me. Retirees and near-retirees who are appropriately balanced are likely far worse hurt by the prevailing interest rates, to say nothing of the idea.... "some people" have about moving the fed rate to a negative value. My suggestion would be that anyone who is concerned about retirees being able to live comfortably is that they should be outraged over.... some people.... demanding the Fed slash rates to negative territory.

You're welcome, Clapper.

Let me know if I can be of further assistance.
   4087. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 06:37 PM (#5953679)
Thanks Zonk (even if I'm not The Clap Man)

This seems like a good rime to repost a link to Nouriel Roubini, "A Greater Depression?"

to get another set of data points in the discussion
   4088. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 26, 2020 at 06:37 PM (#5953680)
If the markets actually didn’t mean jackshit to a majority of people, news of the stock market decline wouldn’t have been so prominently featured here and elsewhere in March. Zonk said something stupid, and arrogantly continues to double-down. Sad.
   4089. McCoy Posted: May 26, 2020 at 06:42 PM (#5953681)
Zonk is right
   4090. Zonk WARRIORS ALONE! Posted: May 26, 2020 at 06:45 PM (#5953682)
If the markets actually didn’t mean jackshit to a majority of people, news of the stock market decline wouldn’t have been so prominently featured here and elsewhere in March. Zonk said something stupid, and arrogantly continues to double-down. Sad.


Oh Clapper... You poor dear.

Was it the 409k thing that got you all muddled about who uses what for what purposes?
   4091. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 26, 2020 at 06:46 PM (#5953683)
"A Greater Depression?"

I find it incredible how much true reality people can ignore. 40M unemployment claims in the last couple months.

Does everyone think 40M are suddenly going to be hired Q3?

Unemployment will be over 10% for a long, long time.

This is gonna be a long, long ride.
   4092. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 06:55 PM (#5953684)
#### Main Street. If the market means nothing to you, you ain't rich enough to be an American.
   4093. JJ1986 Posted: May 26, 2020 at 07:11 PM (#5953685)
MLB has made an absurd proposal to the players:
Sources: Under MLB proposal to players, a player making $35 mil in 2020 would make about $7.8 mil. A player making 10 mil would get about 2.9 mil and a player making a mil would make $434k.
   4094. tshipman Posted: May 26, 2020 at 07:21 PM (#5953687)
A 78% haircut for the star players?
That's MLB's proposal?
   4095. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 26, 2020 at 07:21 PM (#5953688)
Revenues are gonna be a half of a half. A quarter. Those salaries are roughly in line with that. Yet the players won't accept reality.

No chance at a season.
   4096. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 07:32 PM (#5953689)
If you're Mookie Betts, are you going to risk a career-ending injury for $5M, or ~$2M if you're Joc Pederson.
   4097. Ron J Posted: May 26, 2020 at 07:40 PM (#5953691)
4095 I will repeat what I said before. Any negotiator understands the concept of half a loaf. But exactly why would the PA trust MLB? They have a well established history of flat lying (think Bud Selig's congressional testimony) and otherwise negotiating in bad faith.

If they're offering a slice of a diminished pot it will require them to offer up strong verification procedures. And if they're offering a flat cut they need to make a convincing case. And since they have literally never told the truth in any negotiations they are going to have a hard time doing so.
   4098. Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 26, 2020 at 07:56 PM (#5953695)
If you're Mookie Betts, are you going to risk a career-ending injury for $5M, or ~$2M if you're Joc Pederson.


Is he on a 1 year deal? If yes, then no, I wouldn't. (I haven't paid attention to signings. Of course I know he was traded. And I know what the return was!)
   4099. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 08:03 PM (#5953696)
Joe, Both become FA at the end of the year.
   4100. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 08:15 PM (#5953698)
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