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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 9676 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   4101. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 08:15 PM (#5953699)
Sources said the highest-paid players would receive perhaps less than 40% of their full season salaries. For example, a player making $35 million in 2020 would make $7.8 million. A player making $10 million would make $2.9 million, and a player earning $1 million would receive $434,000 under the league's plan.


OK, if that's an MLB source, I totally get the lack of trust. It's an odd definition of (a) 40%, (b) star player, or (c) both
   4102. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 26, 2020 at 08:30 PM (#5953701)

They're basically being asked to play at half price for half a year, right? The half a year doesn't create any additional injury risk that they wouldn't take if they were being paid full salary, so it's "just" playing for half salary that they should have to evaluate.

MLBPA could potentially find a way to self-insure against this kind of risk for a year.
   4103. tshipman Posted: May 26, 2020 at 08:35 PM (#5953703)
The owners are asking players to share the risks and receive zero of the reward.

Are the owners going to write a check the next time a franchise sells for a record amount?

The role of capital is to assume risk and receive the reward. The players should insist on the prorated salary they are due per their contracts.
   4104. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 08:37 PM (#5953704)
half the half-year price. not half price
   4105. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 08:39 PM (#5953705)
The role of capital is to assume risk and receive the reward.


What a quaint nineteenth-century notion.
   4106. Srul Itza Posted: May 26, 2020 at 08:51 PM (#5953706)
No new cases in Hawaii for the third day in a row.

Curve, flattened. For now.
   4107. SoSH U at work Posted: May 26, 2020 at 09:13 PM (#5953709)
The half a year doesn't create any additional injury risk that they wouldn't take if they were being paid full salary,


Except for the whole reason for the half season in the first place. The players are absorbing all of that risk.
   4108. Egregious Hidden Genitals (CoB). Posted: May 26, 2020 at 09:19 PM (#5953711)
It might be time to split this country up.


I got there about a decade ago ...
   4109. Egregious Hidden Genitals (CoB). Posted: May 26, 2020 at 09:30 PM (#5953716)
It's unfortunate that there isn't a convenient geographic division. It would have to split into four or six countries, or more.


This thread needs to turn in this direction ...

   4110. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 09:32 PM (#5953717)
Beyond the COVID risk, they're taking the same risk for 1/4 the pay if they're highly paid. And if they're Betts or Pederson, this is their FA year, and they're risking even more.

There is zero risk for owners in any of this.

But there is about $1 Billion in TV revenue coming to them from the postseason.
The owners insist that it’s necessary for the players take a further salary reduction because they will lose money during the regular season without fans in attendance. Yet, the owners also would be guaranteed $777 million in postseason TV revenue, which would be inflated to about $1 billion with the postseason format expanded to 14 teams instead of 10.
   4111. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 09:33 PM (#5953718)
It would have to split into four or six countries, or more.

and include rescue flights as part of the treaty.
   4112. puck Posted: May 26, 2020 at 09:51 PM (#5953721)
No new cases in Hawaii for the third day in a row.

Curve, flattened. For now.


Any talk about how long they keep the visitor quarantine going?
   4113. Srul Itza Posted: May 26, 2020 at 10:11 PM (#5953723)
Any talk about how long they keep the visitor quarantine going?


No word on relaxing the out-of-state visitor quarantine. Before that happens, they have to figure out how to test arrivals and be ready for contact tracing. In typical Hawaii fashion, the planning is going quite slow.

For people already here, there is some thought to relaxing the inter-island quarantine, but nothing has been decided yet, because, in typical Hawaii fashion, the planning is going quite slow, even without the need for significant testing.

   4114. PreservedFish Posted: May 26, 2020 at 10:29 PM (#5953725)
The map of "counties won by Trump" doesn't look too dissimilar from the map of Hindus in India pre-partition. The West Coast and New England are our obvious Pakistan and Bangladesh, but I think all the liberals stuck in between will be forced to march to whichever is closest.
   4115. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: May 26, 2020 at 10:39 PM (#5953726)
The map of "counties won by Trump" doesn't look too dissimilar from the map of Hindus in India pre-partition. The West Coast and New England are our obvious Pakistan and Bangladesh, but I think all the liberals stuck in between will be forced to march to whichever is closest.

i'd guess that a graph of population density looks quite a bit different, though....
   4116. Dr. Vaux Posted: May 26, 2020 at 11:16 PM (#5953728)
I think it's as much geographic as political in this case. Maryland and Ohio, for example, have Republican governors who have responded to this crisis mostly appropriately. Of course, some would say that's political, because Republicans in the more northerly states are generally more moderate. Population density very possibly plays a role in that.
   4117. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 26, 2020 at 11:17 PM (#5953729)
Beyond the COVID risk, they're taking the same risk for 1/4 the pay if they're highly paid..

Same risk per game for half the salary per game is how I would look at it.
   4118. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 26, 2020 at 11:53 PM (#5953733)
I wouldn't, they don't get paid by game but by year.
   4119. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 27, 2020 at 12:09 AM (#5953734)
But the injury risk, the thing you’re worried about, is roughly proportional to the number of games they play.
   4120. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 27, 2020 at 12:16 AM (#5953735)
Seeing this article appear in a bunch of publications now...

Stanford coronavirus research: Did politically-motivated scientists hype their speedy study?

Nowhere is the question over scientific conduct louder than at Stanford University, where a trio of researchers are accused of promoting faulty analysis and “tipping the scale” on antibody studies that they say proves the virus is more widespread and less lethal than we feared, and that public health restrictions are too strict.

And now the university, which has also come under fire, is investigating the veteran professors’ research, a significant step in a world that cherishes credibility and reputation.

...

When the Stanford team — Drs. Jayanta Bhattacharya, John Ioannidis and Eran Bendavid — released the first draft of their Santa Clara County-based preprint, the news was stunning. The nation’s first study of its type, it found that the virus was astoundingly 50 to 85 times more prevalent than presumed. But that meant the death rate was far lower.

Yet the project raised eyebrows from the start.

Even before they started collecting data, the researchers openly questioned “stay at home” orders. Ioannidis wrote a provocative article arguing that if COVID-19 is less deadly, widespread restrictions “may be totally irrational.” A Wall Street Journal editorial by Bhattacharya and Bendavid was entitled “Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?” Bhattacharya revisited that theme in the Hoover Institution and Fox Nation program “Questioning Conventional Wisdom.”

When their preprint was published, its conclusions backed the trio’s policy arguments – and it was saddled with statistical problems.

It failed to describe key calculations and made at least five material mistakes, according to Will Fithian, assistant professor in UC Berkeley’s Department of Statistics. The population-weighted intervals in a table were miscalculated. The authors plugged the wrong interval into a formula. They made two math errors in executing that formula. And, misreading their test kit’s manufacturer insert, they used the wrong numbers for the antibody test’s specificity.

...

Even more incriminating is an anonymous whistleblower complaint to Stanford, obtained by BuzzFeed, which asserts that microbiologist Taia Wang, who performed the team’s assays, refused to be an author and wrote that she didn’t trust their test. Respected Stanford pathologist Scott Boyd also tested their samples and then distanced himself from the work.


   4121. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 27, 2020 at 12:37 AM (#5953736)
I understand Dave not wanting to violate fair use, so here's from an ellipse,

Their Santa Clara County-based study was revised and republished on April 30, addressing many problems and estimating a new infection rate on the low end of the original range — but outside experts say it’s still flawed. They assert that there remains a serious methodological problem that, if corrected, would widen the “confidence interval,” or the range of possible infection rates.

Since then, questions have been raised about the project’s funding. Who is Bogan, a Palo Alto-based manager of global equity funds who left science two decades ago? . There are also suspicions about the role of David Neeleman, the JetBlue founder who is outspoken about lifting restrictions and said he “consulted” with the team. He also contributed $5,000 to Stanford for the researchers, according to BuzzFeed News.


In fairness, it's not only this study. The authors list a lot of scientific and political malpractice
   4122. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 27, 2020 at 01:06 AM (#5953740)
A breakdown of players' full-year and 82-game prorated salaries versus MLB's proposed salary cuts, according to sources.

Full-year    Prorated        Proposal
$563.5K      $285K           $262K
$1M          $506K           $434K
$2M          $1.01M          $736K
$5M          $2.53M          $1.64M
$10M         $5.06M          $2.95M
$15M         $7.59M          $4.05M
$20M         $10.1M          $5.15M
$25M         $12.7M          $6.05M
$30M         $15.2M          $6.95M
$35M         $17.7M          $7.84M 



and owners keep 80 percent of the projected $1B playoff tv revenue
   4123. BrianBrianson Posted: May 27, 2020 at 02:00 AM (#5953745)
I don't know how much theis bias matters, but that article is essentially totally wrong about how science works, and is so much hype I'm skeptical there's any real substance. It's an easy thing to do, I guess, with so many people having peered into the sausage making factory that is "Science" for their first time.

It's true that la COVID is pushing biomedical people to take up preprint servers somewhat faster than they otherwise would have, but they were among the last to the table (and while preprint *servers* are somewhat new - I guess, ~100% of the papers in my field were on preprint servers when I started my PhD 15 years ago - preprints have existed since time immemorial)

Otherwise, it is mostly a question of eyeballs - analysis errors creep into a lot of studies, and are harder to catch if you think you're getting the "right" answer (indeed, I once caught a factor of 2 missed in the first equation of a paper with 5 equations and 4 authors, *after* it had been accepted)

Some of the other criticisms are pretty obvious spaghetti flinging - yeah, it's great when you provide codes and data, but it's the exception rather than the rule, and providing data on medical studies is often a nightmare to try to do (though, ditto my field for a different reason, where Tbs are common, and Pbs are being planned for). You can always gripe methods aren't explained well enough. Effort is always duplicated (and should be - the usual gripe is that there's a "reproducability crisis" because people aren't spending enough time trying to duplicate each other to verify results). $5k might sound like real money, but a biomedical lab at Stanford wouldn't piss on you for that kind of money, I doubt you'd get to speak to anyone other than a call centre donation worker - it's be different if it was the English Department at the University of North Kenora)

Welcome to the sausage factory. You already love the sausage. But maybe don't try to eat raw ingrediants, or make a lunch out of just he nitrates.
   4124. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 27, 2020 at 02:14 AM (#5953746)
Tho I suppose $5K could easily enough have bought whoever actually wrote the editorial content that accompanied the preprint. Might have even been subcontracted to a grad student in English.
   4125. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 27, 2020 at 04:34 AM (#5953749)
The Stanford folks had a biased sample which they either were unaware of or lied about (author’s wife was emailing her friends telling them to go get tested, also incidentally making medically unsupported claims about what the antibody tests showed). That part isn’t even mentioned in the article.

Brian, is it normal for a study author to write an op-Ed in a national newspaper about a paper when it is still in pre-print stage, and not disclose that they were an author?

The direct money part is the least compelling part to me. $5,000 didn’t buy off a bunch of Stanford doctors, I don’t think.
   4126. BrianBrianson Posted: May 27, 2020 at 05:12 AM (#5953751)
Depends on what you mean by "normal", maybe? Press releases typically happen when papers are published, but it's becoming more and more common at early stages (due to preprint servers, conference presentations). Indeed, even if you wanted to keep the press out, it's becoming harder and harder - I have a colleague who proposed using some radio telescope to examine some unusual object ('Oumuamua, I think) for evidence of radio signals from alien technology - it was obviously a longshot but would be a big deal, so take a flier. And some "since it's a federal facility/funding, everything gets published" way the proposal caught the attention of some reporter and he received an enormous amount of flak.

Otherwise - I've never written a popular article (but I have been interviewed for some, on my own work and that of others). Beyond that - if your name is openly on both articles, "disclosing" you authored them both is a weird use of "disclosing", to my ears. The Op-Ed doesn't try to represent the study as a separate authority, but is, as I read it, essentially the same argument but aimed at a lay argument. The authors of the Op-Ed are very open they're making an argument. If I were me, I'd probably link my scientific study for self-promotional purposes, but no, I don't see anything sneaky there. It reads like they're probably wrong, but not dishonest (of course, they can be hard to distinguish - it's obvious now that using NBA players as a sample is going to make you way underestimate the case fatality rate, but I'm not sure how obvious that was in the middle of March - they had a lot of testing and so could seem like an obvious quasi-control group).

It's possible, of course, they're dishonest, but I don't see anything that looks like evidence they're anything other than plain wrong, and getting a very high level of public scrutiny in a process that's always mess but not usually of so much public interest. If you were wrong about what were low surface brightness galaxies and what were noise, but convinced you were right, you'd act similarly and only a couple dozen people would care.
   4127. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: May 27, 2020 at 06:48 AM (#5953753)
The owners are asking players to share the risks and receive zero of the reward.

The owners proposed a 50/50 revenue split for this year, which would have given the players a reward if revenues are higher than anticipated. But the players said no.

There is no way around the fact that revenues will be way down on a 1/2 schedule played in front of no fans. Maybe revenues will be 1/4 of last year, maybe it's more like 1/3, I don't know. But for the players to keep sticking with the pure prorated argument ignores the economic reality of the situation.

If the players simply don't believe the owners' numbers and think they are negotiating in bad faith, then we are truly screwed for not only this year but the next CBA.
   4128. Rally Posted: May 27, 2020 at 08:03 AM (#5953754)
There is no way around the fact that revenues will be way down on a 1/2 schedule played in front of no fans. Maybe revenues will be 1/4 of last year, maybe it's more like 1/3, I don't know. But for the players to keep sticking with the pure prorated argument ignores the economic reality of the situation.


Maybe I'm missing something, but shouldn't revenue be EASIER to project than normal if we actually had a start date? If they were trying to do a full re-open with fans then you don't know if you can get enough brave souls to pack stadiums, or 30% capacity, or if every game looks like a Marlins game.

But we know what fan attendance will be - zero. All the revenue will come from TV. I don't think baseball has to wait until they find out how much advertising they can sell on a game by game basis for that, they have already negotiated TV contracts. So they should be able to project what the revenue will be based on pro-rating those contracts, that is if they had an agreed upon start date.
   4129. Captain Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 27, 2020 at 08:17 AM (#5953755)
The players shouldn't take that deal.
   4130. Ron J Posted: May 27, 2020 at 08:34 AM (#5953756)
4129 Well you should almost never take the first offer in any kind of negotiations. From an entity that has literally never negotiated in good faith ...

MLB is trying to win the PR fight -- and it will. It's never helped in the negotiations, but they are dealing with a new set of negotiators so you never know.
   4131. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 27, 2020 at 08:36 AM (#5953757)
MLB is trying to win the PR fight -- and it will.


Yeah. "We know you lockdown-addled wretches want to see baseball again, but the millionaire players won't come back unless we pay them more millions...!"
   4132. Zonk is UP-playing! Posted: May 27, 2020 at 08:53 AM (#5953760)
   4133. Mefisto Posted: May 27, 2020 at 09:18 AM (#5953762)
No word on relaxing the out-of-state visitor quarantine. Before that happens, they have to figure out how to test arrivals and be ready for contact tracing. In typical Hawaii fashion, the planning is going quite slow.

For people already here, there is some thought to relaxing the inter-island quarantine, but nothing has been decided yet, because, in typical Hawaii fashion, the planning is going quite slow, even without the need for significant testing.


Inter-island flights seem pretty easy to allow under the circumstances.

As for out-of-state, HI probably should be advertising right now in NZ, Iceland, Taiwan, and maybe a few other places with no real risk. Let those folks in.
   4134. Captain Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:09 AM (#5953767)
4131...Your concern for the billionaire owners is noted.
   4135. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:13 AM (#5953768)
It will not surprise me in the slightest if the owners screw the pooch and fumble away this opportunity because they are unwilling to swallow short term losses.

Baseball has a massive opportunity. They have been losing mindshare for a long time. This is a chance to be the sport that is playing. To introduce and re-introduce your game to millions of sports and entertainment hungry people. This is their chance to take a bad situation and turn it into a long term marketing success and grow their sport.

The owners can easily afford to use this season as a loss leader and add to the value of MLB for years to come.
   4136. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:26 AM (#5953770)
Baseball has a massive opportunity. They have been losing mindshare for a long time. This is a chance to be the sport that is playing. To introduce and re-introduce your game to millions of sports and entertainment hungry people. This is their chance to take a bad situation and turn it into a long term marketing success and grow their sport.

The owners can easily afford to use this season as a loss leader and add to the value of MLB for years to come.
In this spirit, how about the owners compromise on pay and the players agree to stop obstructing meaningful pace-of-play changes?
   4137. Zonk is UP-playing! Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:29 AM (#5953771)
The owners can easily afford to use this season as a loss leader and add to the value of MLB for years to come.


I wonder how monolithic the owners actually are?

My guess would be that the overwhelming majority of owners - say 2/3? more? - can easily afford to use this season as a loss leader.

However, how many Wilpons are there? How many Nutting?
   4138. Howie Menckel Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:30 AM (#5953772)
This is a chance to be the sport that is playing.

?????

you mean aside from NBA, NHL, MLS, and PGA Tour and NASCAR? (among others)
   4139. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:32 AM (#5953774)
you mean aside from NBA, NHL, MLS, and PGA Tour and NASCAR? (among others)


The NBA is playing right now? Those other leagues are playing? Someone tell my TV.
   4140. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:32 AM (#5953775)
The first league to get back, especially starting a season from the start and not trying to restart a season, has a huge advantage.
   4141. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:36 AM (#5953776)
Your concern for the billionaire owners is noted.

I was showing disdain, not concern. (Google "sarcasm" when you get a chance.)
   4142. . Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:38 AM (#5953780)
4131...Your concern for the billionaire owners is noted.


Actually, if our objective is simply for billionaires to give their money away, far better than they give it to somewhere like St. Jude's than to people like Addison Russell or Gerrit Cole. It's almost surely a net-net detriment for society for young arrested development guys to have the money than it is for a "billionaire." It's just a very strange thing to glom onto this issue, involving a few hundred employees in an entirely niche, un-representative industry, as something meaningful and worthy of all manner of garment-rending. If it's just anti-billionaire-ism, there are far better outlets and causes for the impulse.

Society would be far better off if MLB salaries were capped at like a million dollars a year and the "excess" profits given to worthy charities.

?????

you mean aside from NBA, NHL, MLS, and PGA Tour and NASCAR? (among others)


Yeah, that was quite the bizarre comment. By the time MLB will be getting rolling, all indications are that the Stanley Cup playoffs will be starting. NASCAR is already going, and the PGA Tour is starting up two weekends after this next one. Not to mention the Bundesliga and (soon, apparently, La Liga). Probably just another uninformed commentator who just *has* to have an opinion.
   4143. Ron J Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:50 AM (#5953782)
Now this is the sign of Covid-19 truly out of control. In Columbia they've started to use cardboard beds that can double up as coffins.

EDIT: Correction, on reading past the headline they have been designed but not deployed yet.
   4144. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: May 27, 2020 at 11:05 AM (#5953785)
Is that Colombia the country, Columbia, SC, Columbia University...?
   4145. Ron J Posted: May 27, 2020 at 11:08 AM (#5953787)
Columbia the country. Might be bigger news if it was a thing in the US.
   4146. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 27, 2020 at 11:16 AM (#5953792)
Is that Colombia the country, Columbia, SC, Columbia University...?
Give RonJ a break, he's Conadian.
   4147. Hysterical & Useless Posted: May 27, 2020 at 11:40 AM (#5953805)
Depends on what you mean by "normal", maybe? Press releases typically happen when papers are published,


But according to the posted excerpt, the authors had gone public with their stance re: the prevalence and potential mortality of covid-19
before they started collecting data
.
I realize you can't really do research without having some sort of thesis going in, but when you essentially announce your result before beginning work, some might raise an eyebrow.
   4148. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 27, 2020 at 11:51 AM (#5953811)

Press releases typically happen when papers are published, but it's becoming more and more common at early stages (due to preprint servers, conference presentations).


Sure, Brian, but this wasn't that, it was a policy statement based on the unvetted and problematic study.

shouldn't revenue be EASIER to project than normal if we actually had a start date? If they were trying to do a full re-open with fans then you don't know if you can get enough brave souls to pack stadiums, or 30% capacity, or if every game looks like a Marlins game.


OK, but what does anyone other than owners and accountants know about revenue from team-owned networks?
   4149. RJ in TO Posted: May 27, 2020 at 11:54 AM (#5953815)
I realize you can't really do research without having some sort of thesis going in, but when you essentially announce your result before beginning work, some might raise an eyebrow.
Especially when the results of your initial study show that roughly 200% of New York City residents had already caught COVID-19, based on your estimated fatality rates.
   4150. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 27, 2020 at 11:58 AM (#5953817)
And in other COVID news

France is no longer allowing hydroxychloroquine as a treatment.

France on Wednesday revoked the authorization allowing hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for Covid-19 patients, a day after halting the use of the malaria drug in clinical trials. Both steps come on the back of moves by the World Health Organization to temporarily remove the drug from global trials over safety concerns.


NY Times live update (no implied promise of link's long-term accuracy)
   4151. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 27, 2020 at 12:12 PM (#5953822)
France is no longer allowing hydroxychloroquine as a treatment.
####, now Trump's gonna bomb France.
   4152. Lassus Posted: May 27, 2020 at 01:05 PM (#5953845)
Especially when the results of your initial study show that roughly 200% of New York City residents had already caught COVID-19, based on your estimated fatality rates.

Herd immunity closer than you think, negative Nancys!
   4153. bunyon Posted: May 27, 2020 at 01:09 PM (#5953848)
Herd immunity closer than you think, negative Nancys!

Herd immunity is 70-100% so the bastards overshot.
   4154. PreservedFish Posted: May 27, 2020 at 01:19 PM (#5953852)
New York, New York, so good they infected it twice
   4155. Srul Itza Posted: May 27, 2020 at 02:04 PM (#5953868)
As for out-of-state, HI probably should be advertising right now in NZ, Iceland, Taiwan, and maybe a few other places with no real risk. Let those folks in.


That has been suggested, but so far, no takers.

Latest word is re=starting tourism in July
   4156. RJ in TO Posted: May 27, 2020 at 02:28 PM (#5953878)
I can't see the Hawaii/Iceland route as being all that big a revenue driver.
   4157. Zonk is UP-playing! Posted: May 27, 2020 at 02:46 PM (#5953880)
I can't see the Hawaii/Iceland route as being all that big a revenue driver.


Is volcanology not a big tourism driver?
   4158. RJ in TO Posted: May 27, 2020 at 02:54 PM (#5953884)
According to my detailed notes, not really.
   4159. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 27, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5953885)
As with many other things, the coronavirus crisis has played havoc with state bar exams scheduled for July 2020. Various options, or combinations of options, are in play - going ahead with in-person exams, moving to on-line exams, postponing the exam to the Fall, and granting a Diploma Privilege to allow graduates to practice, under supervision, until the exam is given. Nevada just became the 1st State to offer an open-book, online Bar Exam. I really don’t see how anyone could graduate from law school but flunk an open-book bar exam, but I’ve been told that standards may have declined in recent decades. Not sure how other states that go with online bar exams can effectively prevent them from being “unofficially open-book” either, but apparently remote proctoring is now a thing.
   4160. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 27, 2020 at 03:11 PM (#5953889)
The entire concept of a closed-book bar exam seems pretty antiquated and silly to begin with. It serves very little purpose other than as a kind of hazing ritual. Unfortunately the legal profession is still rife with that kind of thinking.
   4161. Ron J Posted: May 27, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5953896)
4160 What -- I though it was routine for judges to demand you make your case immediately. If you can't give them the relevant case law on the spot from memory what kind of lawyer are you?
   4162. Srul Itza Posted: May 27, 2020 at 03:26 PM (#5953897)
The real push was to include Australia with New Zealand, as we do get a sizable number of Australian tourists. The Big Markets in order, of course are the U.S. West, U.S. East, Japan, Canada and Australia

ETA rough 2019 numbers -- US West 4.6 million, US East 2.2 million, Japan 1.5 million, Canada 500,000, Australia 300,000, Korea 225,000, Europe 140,000
   4163. Greg Pope Posted: May 27, 2020 at 03:32 PM (#5953900)
Not sure how other states that go with online bar exams can effectively prevent them from being “unofficially open-book” either, but apparently remote proctoring is now a thing.

A couple of years ago my son had an issue and had to take a test remotely for a college class. He had to log into the college's software and enable his camera. When test time came, he had to show the proctor a 360 degree view of the room to make sure there were no books, materials, or other people. He had to sit with the camera on him, and also a view of the door to the room.

This required one proctor per student. So it probably wouldn't work for the bar.
   4164. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: May 27, 2020 at 03:38 PM (#5953901)
i'm not generally a supporter of eugenics, but these people make me want to reconsider that position:

Yahoo News and YouGov recently polled U.S. adults on their coronavirus beliefs and found that only 40 percent of respondents believe it’s false that “Bill Gates wants to use a mass vaccination campaign against COVID-19 to implant microchips in people that would be used to track people with a digital ID.” ***The other 60 percent say it’s true or are “not sure.”***
...
If you’re worried about location tracking, look no further than your cellphone. Phones are bona fide tracking devices; people use their GPS functions all the time to find their friends or map their routes. There are serious, worrisome privacy violations that can come from companies collecting and sharing your GPS data, yet we willingly give up that information daily. As Slate’s politics editor Tom Scocca puts it: “Bill Gates doesn’t have to implant a tracker in you because Steve Jobs got you to buy one yourself.”

   4165. McCoy Posted: May 27, 2020 at 03:39 PM (#5953902)
In this day and age I don't know why any test is closed book.
   4166. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: May 27, 2020 at 03:40 PM (#5953904)
In this day and age I don't know why any test is closed book.
cosine.
   4167. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: May 27, 2020 at 04:12 PM (#5953912)
In this day and age I don't know why any test is closed book.

The bar exam is kind of like a hazing ritual.

I really don't know a good way to be a gatekeeper for people entering the profession. Bar exams are basically a test of your ability to memorize material (that's less relevant to lawyering than you might guess) but that skill is not entirely unrelated to being competent at your job.
   4168. Zonk is UP-playing! Posted: May 27, 2020 at 04:20 PM (#5953918)
A couple of years ago my son had an issue and had to take a test remotely for a college class. He had to log into the college's software and enable his camera. When test time came, he had to show the proctor a 360 degree view of the room to make sure there were no books, materials, or other people. He had to sit with the camera on him, and also a view of the door to the room.

This required one proctor per student. So it probably wouldn't work for the bar.


The idea of overkill, inefficiency, and ticky-tack glommering ever being a bridge too far is a bet that the legal profession will beat the spread on every day of the week and twice on Sunday....
   4169. BrianBrianson Posted: May 27, 2020 at 04:22 PM (#5953919)
Sure, Brian, but this wasn't that, it was a policy statement based on the unvetted and problematic study.


I gather you probably haven't read the editorial, but I did, largely because I hadn't paid it any mind and didn't know much about it. It reads as very reasonable - they make some estimates of estimates of what they think and why, which are explained reasonably clearly and explicitly labelled as arguments and hypothesis. It has the appropriate qualifications, stuff like "If we’re right about the limited scale of the epidemic". Indeed, their underlying premise - that we were underestimating the number of infections - was correct, but it was only by a factor of about two, not the 10x - 100x they got, from numbers they acknowledged weren't great, but were the best they thought they could do at the time.

Honestly, read the editorial. From a purely science, I don't care about partisan posturing (which isn't a posture - I'm a Canadian who lives in France, the partisan implications of COVID "skepticism" for me are totally different for me from what they are for you), there's nothing odd or unusual, except the amount of public interest, it reads like normal science being done in the normal way by some people who ultimately turned out to be wrong (but really, made not crazy estimates but were probably biased by their reluctance to see a once in a century event - a reasonable reluctance, really). And the criticisms are mostly obviously bunk.

Were they wrong? Yeah. Well, my PhD advisor used to say "If you're not wrong at least half the time, you're not trying hard enough". They were right that we were underestimating the number of infections, but wrong when they try to correct, they over-corrected. Like, this really is how we do science, and the only way we know to make it work. Welcome to the sausage factory. If you come in only interested in winning a partisan fight, you have no chance of making sausage.

And the sausage is ####### delicious. It's our only chance of getting out of this ###########. Without it, we'd be flaggelating ourselves in the street hoping that was a cure.
   4170. BrianBrianson Posted: May 27, 2020 at 04:28 PM (#5953920)
before they started collecting data

.
I realize you can't really do research without having some sort of thesis going in, but when you essentially announce your result before beginning work, some might raise an eyebrow.


Again, a bit, sausage, but it's not unusual to do the kind of estimates you see in their editorial before you actually try to do a study, and kind of trap yourself into a way of thinking were you end up catching some biases and errors but not others because you get the results you expect ... it happens to everyone (very famously, it happened to Eddington when he thought he had confirmed Einstein's prediction of gravitational lensing from GR, but had way underestimated his error bars and confirmed jack ####, for instance).

This is an excellent example of why you shouldn't ever really believe a single study, but look at the bulk of the literature, the reviews, synthesis, and consensus. It's very easy to get things wrong, it's much much harder to get the same wrong answer from different directions.
   4171. Hysterical & Useless Posted: May 27, 2020 at 04:53 PM (#5953927)
Thanks, Brian. I very much appreciate your expertise and sense of perspective.
   4172. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 27, 2020 at 05:14 PM (#5953933)
Wired.


“If we prolong these measures too long, the premature deaths from that policy could be 100-fold larger than what we see with Covid-19 itself,” Ioannidis told me. The fear of leaving home to go to a hospital is alone almost certainly leading to thousands of unnecessary deaths from heart attacks, strokes and cancer.

Other epidemiologists’ assessment of Ioannidis’ claim, that staying at home will likely kill far more people than Covid-19, might best be summed up the way physics giant Wolfgang Pauli is said to have dismissed the lesser work of a colleague: It’s not even wrong. To be promoted to wrong, the Ioannidis position would have to be based on data and analysis that scientists could argue over. Even allowing his 0.1 percent fatality rate for the disease—which most epidemiologists think is way too low, but not beyond-the-realm-of-possibility low—there is almost no data to go on for the likely cost in human life of the lockdown. We know Covid-19 is killing tens of thousands of people, and that staying at home is slowing the spread; but we know virtually nothing about the number deaths caused by staying at home. As such, what Ioannidis is promoting simply isn’t science, says Loren Lipworth, a Vanderbilt University epidemiologist. “It’s impossible to do that risk-benefit analysis,” she says. “It’s just relying on anecdote and common sense.” In other words, Ioannidis is pitting his gut against the collective data-driven wisdom and analysis of medicine and public health.


As has been pointed out earlier in this thread, Ioannidas just released a preprint of a survey of antibody studies, effectively including all the ones with low numbers (including some with ridiculously impossible low numbers) and rejecting all the ones with higher numbers. I'm pretty sure that's not science, not even bad science.
   4173. PreservedFish Posted: May 27, 2020 at 05:29 PM (#5953939)
It's all part of the process, AuntBea! Some sausage makers try to cut corners by putting lungs and sawdust and rancid horse meat into the sausage - that's why we have USDA inspectors and third party auditors, to catch them and trigger recalls.
   4174. Zonk is UP-playing! Posted: May 27, 2020 at 05:35 PM (#5953940)
In this day and age I don't know why any test is closed book.


I still see lots of trogs on social media demanding that I RT, like, and share that I 'agree that cursive should be a class again'... to which I sometimes respond "Don't your rickets give you enough trouble keeping your jolapy running while you while away the time praying that the sun god won't be angry with you and come back in the morning?"

Friggin pointless. It was an actual class for me and it regularly kept me from getting all A's.... and I used to constantly argue with the teachers that it was damn waste of time because far from "needing it" in the real world, I would be typing it on a keyboard.

Well, screw you, Mrs Wells - you dumb old bag.... I was right. I vaguely recall you bet me that 4th grade me didn't know what I was talking about, so I really ought to sue your friggin estate for my winnings. Because I was right. The only thing I "write" any more is my signature, which has devolved into a fanciful scribble.
   4175. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 27, 2020 at 05:38 PM (#5953942)
Ioannidis says that in Italy, there is "quite some debate" about whether the 99% with co-morbidities would have died anyway "if not immediately, then perhaps in a few days, in a few weeks, or in a few months".

edit: oops, I had my numbers wrong, but the point still holds. Too many people have died to fit into a few months worth of deaths, not only in Lombardy, but also NYC, and even if no one else dies in NYC for the next few months.

34,000 people died in NYC from March 11 to May 17, which is more than would die in "a few months" for all reasons. (It's about 7 months worth of normal deaths, so no one else could in NYC, for any reason, until October.)
   4176. PreservedFish Posted: May 27, 2020 at 05:43 PM (#5953944)
You know who else once made "factually incorrect" statements? Copernicus. Galileo. Darwin. Dean. Mayer. Hormel.
   4177. Srul Itza Posted: May 27, 2020 at 05:52 PM (#5953946)
I used to constantly argue with the teachers that it was damn waste of time because far from "needing it" in the real world, I would be typing it on a keyboard.


Most useful class in high school, for me, was typing.
   4178. Captain Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: May 27, 2020 at 06:10 PM (#5953949)
far better than they give it to somewhere like St. Jude's


I see what you did there. ;-)

( I know you meant "that" and not "than". I think.)
   4179. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: May 27, 2020 at 06:32 PM (#5953956)
The entire concept of a closed-book bar exam seems pretty antiquated and silly to begin with. It serves very little purpose other than as a kind of hazing ritual. Unfortunately the legal profession is still rife with that kind of thinking.

It would be great if it was a one-time thing and not state dependent, but alas I am taking the Delaware bar this year. I graduated 16 years ago. Not having the ability to waive in is some bullshit.
   4180. flournoy Posted: May 27, 2020 at 06:43 PM (#5953958)
I think there is value in closed-book tests. There's a difference between knowing an answer and knowing how/where to find the answer. That said, I certainly agree that a lot of tests would be more effective as open-book if the questions were well formulated.
   4181. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: May 27, 2020 at 07:39 PM (#5953972)
Other industries have come up with creative ways to resume. Some in the film industry have continued to work by relying on a quarantine bubble plan that keeps everyone involved together and isolated for the entire duration of a production. Entire teams and staff were put under mandatory isolation in order to compete in the Bundesliga. Other leagues will likely follow suit, but it may be impossible to enforce. Some Bundesliga coaches and players still broke the rules. English Premier League team Manchester City says it will be finding a way to discipline Kyle Walker after he was caught breaking quarantine rules and hosting a sex party. Unless a viable preventative plan comes to professional soccer—or if players and staff understand and consciously volunteer to risk exposing themselves to the real continued danger of infection—we shouldn’t bother with the unnecessary charade of celebrating goals six feet apart.
your move, mike trout.
   4182. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: May 27, 2020 at 07:55 PM (#5953976)
4137: allegedly there are 9-10 owners who have decided its better with no season than a half season.

   4183. Traderdave Posted: May 27, 2020 at 08:22 PM (#5953981)
Most useful class in high school, for me, was typing.


The only F I ever got on a report card was in typing.
   4184. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 27, 2020 at 08:23 PM (#5953982)
English Premier League team Manchester City says it will be finding a way to discipline Kyle Walker after he was caught breaking quarantine rules and hosting a sex party.
If Scott Boras represented Walker, I’m sure he would explain that Walker can have sex while maintaining social distancing, because he’s just that well endowed.
   4185. Howie Menckel Posted: May 27, 2020 at 08:34 PM (#5953985)
Most useful class in high school, for me, was typing.

in my HS typing class, half the typewriters were manual and the other half were electric.

the rule was that midway through the semester, everybody switched from one to the other.

well, I lucked into the electric side first, and had no interest in moving to 1950s manual.

I figured out that there were a couple of more electric typewriters than manual. so on the day that everyone had to switch, I stood up - "To Tell The Truth" game show style - as if I was switching.

when the dust settled, just about everyone had flipped from one mode to the other - nobody noticed my gambit.

#stillcrazyafteralltheseyears
   4186. Greg K Posted: May 27, 2020 at 09:07 PM (#5953991)
I still see lots of trogs on social media demanding that I RT, like, and share that I 'agree that cursive should be a class again'... to which I sometimes respond "Don't your rickets give you enough trouble keeping your jolapy running while you while away the time praying that the sun god won't be angry with you and come back in the morning?"

I remember Typing being a class in high school. I bet they don't teach the kids that anymore!
   4187. Greg K Posted: May 27, 2020 at 09:08 PM (#5953992)
I see some other people remember typing as well.....apparently the most memorable class there is.
   4188. puck Posted: May 27, 2020 at 09:12 PM (#5953994)
Gee Howie, if you'd gone for the manuals, I could picture you in a pressbox pecking away at a manual typewriter.

(How long ago was that era?)

I had a typing class too, same deal, half of them were manual, half electric. My Dad worked for IBM and would occasionally buy an IBM typewriter--when he brought home the selectric with the built-in correction tape, that was mind blowing.

I guess typing class with real typewriters must age us.
   4189. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 27, 2020 at 09:33 PM (#5953998)
in my HS typing class, half the typewriters were manual and the other half were electric

the rule was that midway through the semester, everybody switched from one to the other. . . .
Landed a then state-of-the-art IBM Selectric - the only one is the classroom - back when I took typing in HS, just by noticing that only 1 row of desks had electrical outlets. Didn’t have to switch, either - the rest of the class had to live with manual typewriters for the whole semester.
   4190. Ron J Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:04 PM (#5954000)
4183 Me too. In my defense I grew an absurd amount the year I took typing and had so little coordination that I could barely walk. In retrospect just really bad timing.
   4191. McCoy Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:14 PM (#5954002)
I took keyboarding in high school. Absolut did not want to but my parents made me. At the time I had been on computers for years and I was really good at the old hunt and peck.

Our keyboarding class had old double disc drives no hard drive Tandys with the old graphic setup of brown or black color. The sides they used for the class had a flaw in that if you just mashed a bunch of keys together it wouldn't be able to handle tracking errors. So your report would come out with like 100 words a minute and 3 errors.

Despite not really wanting to learn the proper style I eventually learned it and became more proficient with it than hunting and pecking. Which is nice considering that Swype is now supplanting typing.
   4192. McCoy Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:16 PM (#5954003)
I remember in 1986 my cousin's family buying a word processer which was basically a hybrid of a typewriter and computer. It also had the auto correct tape that we all found mesmerizing.
   4193. Zonk is UP-playing! Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:26 PM (#5954004)
I found typing to be a mostly valuable class in HS, too... though, it was still not quite progress enough for me as rather than focusing faster and faster touch typing - or ideas like typing solely with your thumbs, I also had to learn how to put discreet marks on the page to plan for footnotes.... I was annoyed by this as well, because a computer was already learning how to handle this, but my complaints were met with a “we can always have you perfect that lower case cursive r you never mastered....”

That’s when I learned to accept some progress is better than backwardness.
   4194. Dr. Vaux Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:30 PM (#5954005)
What in tarnation is Swype?
   4195. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:46 PM (#5954009)
I took typing in summer school after 10th grade.

Paid for it myself.
   4196. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:56 PM (#5954012)
That said, I certainly agree that a lot of tests would be more effective as open-book if the questions were well formulated.


My umpire exams every year are open book, and the questions are most definitely not well formulated. Every year several have to be thrown out. On the last one I had a question concerning the modified DH rule: "At the pre-game plate conference, Coach A of team B says Player C will pitch and DH for himself. True or False?" Well, since I was not privy to that hypothetical conversation, I have no idea if it happened or not, and the rule book doesn't help me here.
   4197. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 27, 2020 at 11:00 PM (#5954013)
The only F I ever got on a report card was in typing.
How does that happen? Repeatedly inserting obscenities into “The quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog”?
   4198. McCoy Posted: May 27, 2020 at 11:00 PM (#5954014)
Swype is what all you Apple users don't have yet because the patents haven't expired.

You can on a phone or tablet simply dragging your finger across the screen and the software can figure out what word you're trying to type.
   4199. Greg K Posted: May 27, 2020 at 11:09 PM (#5954015)
I had pretty good typing technique, but about 5 or 6 years ago I broke a finger. Learned to type without it, but now that it's healed I can't re-learn how to type normally.
   4200. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: May 27, 2020 at 11:28 PM (#5954017)
The only F I ever got on a report card was in typing.
Maybe it was a typo.
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