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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 6410 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   4401. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 29, 2020 at 07:25 PM (#5954426)
Baseball is back...in the Czech Republic!
   4402. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 29, 2020 at 07:39 PM (#5954428)
Nate Silver makes a big deal about positive test rate being the best indicator of how many people have the virus, mostly because you can't just look at total positive tests if we keep testing more people every week that the last. He's definitely right, but fore the same reason, you can't just look at the rate, because the more you test, the more the testing reaches people that are less likely to have the virus. The best indicator is some combination of both. And of course it has to be region by region because the US is a big and pretty diverse place.

That said, it looks like the number of tests performed has actually plateaued, and even gone down slightly outside NY/NJ/CT. Maybe this was a memorial day thing. The rate testing positive has gone down a hair outside that area, so we are still slightly ahead of the curve. (Or were, 1-2 weeks ago, because I'm referring to 7-day averages and it takes a few days to show up as positive on a test.) One sneeze though, and we might find ourselves on the way back up again.

   4403. tshipman Posted: May 29, 2020 at 07:47 PM (#5954429)
Thanks for sharing that site. Georgia looks like an impending disaster.
   4404. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: May 29, 2020 at 08:04 PM (#5954433)
Thanks for sharing that site. Georgia looks like an impending disaster.

Georgia also supposedly had -74,189 COVID tests performed on 5/27, so... something might be wonky in the data there.
   4405. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 29, 2020 at 08:08 PM (#5954434)
Those must have been the antibody tests performed to that point. Subtracting them out must have thrown off the % shown as testing positive this last week.
   4406. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 29, 2020 at 08:16 PM (#5954436)
Those must have been the antibody tests performed to that point. Subtracting them out must have thrown off the % shown as testing positive this last week.
assuming anything about the information coming out of georgia seems likely to be a mistake.

   4407. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 29, 2020 at 08:29 PM (#5954440)
Just in case anyone here doesn't already know this, some states, including Georgia, were including the antibody tests in the "number of tests performed" category but not having a positive (or negative) antibody test count as a "case". Good way to show you have increased testing in the state while driving down the percent coming back positive. CDC was on board with the scheme.
   4408. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 29, 2020 at 08:48 PM (#5954443)
I don't hear much of the why can't we be more like Sweden anymore.

Well, you're comparing Sweden to France, and we're mostly re-opened in France now.


Tho in fairness to France, they didn't go looking for what they got; theirs was a fairly early asskicking that they seem to have tamped down.
   4409. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 29, 2020 at 10:16 PM (#5954450)
Georgia looks like an impending disaster.


Yeah. And the Covid situation is pretty grim too.
   4410. Lassus Posted: May 29, 2020 at 10:41 PM (#5954452)
Well done.
   4411. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 29, 2020 at 10:56 PM (#5954455)
In most US states, it is still very difficult to determine the number of excess deaths. First, CDC data is incomplete, and so incomplete over the last 3 weeks it probably shouldn't be used at all for this purpose over that time frame. Second, in most states the number of deaths is fairly low still such that the chosen baseline makes a big difference (as it does for Sweden). As such, excess deaths can be in the eye of the beholder.

For example, the New York Times shows 1700 excess deaths from March 15 through March 9 in Florida, which is fewer than the actual number of COVID-reported deaths during that time frame. Personally, looking at the data here I wouldn't have gone past April 25 without adding some adjustments.

Looking at weeks 11-17 alone (up until April 25), there were 31,224 deaths listed by the CDC in 2020, and 29,462 last year (+1800). There were about 28,700 in 2018, and under 27,800 in each of 2016 and 2017. So what's the baseline? Florida's population has gone up 1-2% per year in recent years (1% last year), so that explains most but not all the growth in deaths (growth of 4%, but deaths up by 6%). Taking an average of the last 4 years is 28,450 or so, and adding in 3% gives 29300. Adding 4% gives about 29,600. That would put excess deaths between 1600 and 1900 for the period ending April 25. There were about 1200 deaths (by date) through April 25, putting this estimate as an additional 400 to 700 (+33% to + 58%).

   4412. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 29, 2020 at 11:30 PM (#5954457)
So what is the NY Times doing? Not sure, but if you look at their charts, you'll see that for states like Florida they are assuming a baseline that is pretty far above the actual deaths that were recorded in Florida (in January and February) before the coronavirus hit, so might not be a very accurate baseline. The same is notably true for a number of other states, including California, Texas, Washington, Georgia and Alabama. (Also true for states like New York and New Jersey where it's not really relevant since excess deaths dwarf the choice of baseline.)

I'm not at all sure the best way to get a best estimate for the baseline, but any model that gives you an overcount is almost certainly wrong. The best I think you could realistically get, based on what we've seen across the world (including where they have done much more prolific testing than the United States) is a small undercount.
   4413. BrianBrianson Posted: May 30, 2020 at 07:05 AM (#5954464)
One people started quaratining (by law or by choice), some other kinds of deaths did go down. I believe the flu dropped off dramatically, for instance.

Other behaviours might modify it (for instance, if snowbirds stayed out of Florida, deaths might've been done).

Not sure either is likely the case here, but it's not impossible other deaths were down.
   4414. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 30, 2020 at 07:06 AM (#5954465)
(In reality, of course, Ion likely wouldn't sue BTF or Furtado because the number of eyeballs who see the things said about him is relatively small, and therefore the reputational damage relatively small, but that doesn't change the principle.)
I had originally posted a nasty response here. Then I deleted it because I decided that although FLTB doesn't deserve any charity in reading his posts, one could interpret what he was saying as merely discussing what he wishes the law was rather than what it is.

But upon reading further, I retract my retraction of my nasty response.

(**) Once Furtado bans a YR and suspends an Andy based on the content of their posts, as opposed to running merely a fully-open bulletin board, he's a publisher under any serious definition of the concept. (He probably is merely by posting some articles for board commentary, and not others, but that's not necessary to figure out for this discussion.) With that status comes responsibility and hopefully will soon come the same legal responsibility of, say, the New York Times or the New York Daily News. The idea of open, freewheeling forums and democratic mass discussion was nice while it lasted, but that time has -- unfortunately -- long passed.
This is complete and utter ####### lies. To post it in the same comment in which he talks about "professional responsibilities enforced by sanctions for violations. If a lawyer had knowingly attributed that fake quote to Ion in a brief to a judge, he or she would be subject to suspension or disbarment" is beyond his usual level of trolling and fake lawyering. Not a word of this is true. Furtado is not a publisher by virtue of moderating under the only serious definition of the concept: the actual law.

The entire point of the CDA is to allow website operators to ban people based on the content of their posts without being liable. It's not an unforeseen byproduct. That was the reason the law was passed.
   4415. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 30, 2020 at 07:11 AM (#5954466)
Just in case anyone here doesn't already know this, some states, including Georgia, were including the antibody tests in the "number of tests performed" category but not having a positive (or negative) antibody test count as a "case".

Yikes, I knew they had been including antibody tests in the total tested, but I didn’t realize they weren’t including the positive tests as “cases”. Thanks for pointing that out.
   4416. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 30, 2020 at 07:14 AM (#5954467)
#4413 traffic deaths should be down as well. But those are a relatively small number compared to COVID deaths here, and even smaller in Europe.
   4417. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 30, 2020 at 07:37 AM (#5954469)
Georgia looks like an impending disaster.

Yeah. And the Covid situation is pretty grim too.


Please tell me you aren't hoping for a disaster, just so you can be proven right. (With some of these people I watch on TV...it's as if they're waiting around like the 1972 Miami Dolphins, with champagne corks ready to pop...)
   4418. . Posted: May 30, 2020 at 08:41 AM (#5954470)
I had originally posted a nasty response here.


And apparently decided to go with unlettered instead.
   4419. PreservedFish Posted: May 30, 2020 at 08:48 AM (#5954471)
Found on social media:

"THIS IS WHY YOU DON'T WANT TO WEAR THE MASK PEOPLE

My daughter. 19 years old. Healthy. Frontline worker at a grocery chain. Started feeling sick ... side and back pain. Nausea. Chest pain ... Rushed to ER. Quarantined... Turns out its pleurisy. An inflection [sic] of the outside of her lungs. They basically tell her. It's because she has been wearing a mask for over 8 hours a day 5-6 days a week. Breathing in her own bacteria. Carbon dioxide.. Caused an infection... But you won't see that on social media!"
   4420. Lassus Posted: May 30, 2020 at 09:34 AM (#5954475)
And apparently decided to go with unlettered instead.

And you continue to be unable to respond using actual quotes or citations rather than fantasy words, or worlds.
   4421. baxter Posted: May 30, 2020 at 09:46 AM (#5954477)
Re 4414,

Mr. N, I have a question in trying to understand the second to last paragraph in your post where you quote from the previous post the following:

"If a lawyer had knowingly attributed that fake quote to Ion in a brief to a judge, he or she would be subject to suspension or disbarment" (apologize about my inability to use the quote feature)

When you wrote "Not a word of this is true," were you referring to the above quoted language (as well as the other language you quoted)?

   4422. . Posted: May 30, 2020 at 09:58 AM (#5954478)
And you continue to be unable to respond using actual quotes or citations rather than fantasy words, or worlds.


The envious troll shall be feedeth no more.
   4423. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 30, 2020 at 11:03 AM (#5954483)
So this twitter guy does very interesting work with excess deaths using estimates from the latest CDC data. Unfortunately, he makes sweeping statements that are way too overconfident considering the limited data he is working from. For example, the links show the Memorial Day weekly data was even more incomplete than normal (compare one link's data to the other)--Florida would have been expected to have about 4,000 new deaths listed this week, but only had about 2000 (if you include their increase to the current week and all prior weeks).

I think that's how you end up with statements like this: "all-cause mortality in Florida has returned to totally normal levels", based on a large drop-off over the past 3 weeks. He actually shows all-cause mortality as being lower than the last couple years (which actually means below normal levels, since the baseline is actually increasing in Florida gradually by year). This would be a very surprising result, because Florida's actual reported COVID data (cases and deaths) has been holding fairly steady over the last 3 weeks.

edit: in other words, it's the same situation as the Sweden data all over again. It's hard to do a better job unless you look more deeply into the data sets, which is not really possible if you post data for 50 states and multiple countries as soon as the data comes out. I think he should not be extrapolating up to the most recent week from such limited and apparently (at least this week) irregular data.

edit2: it also appears to be why this same guy had projected, a few weeks ago, that we (as a country) would be at normal excess death levels by the end of May, but now projects that to be another couple weeks off. In a couple week,s it might be another couple weeks off...
   4424. Lassus Posted: May 30, 2020 at 11:09 AM (#5954484)
The envious troll shall be feedeth no more.

Not compelling, and proving the assertion.
   4425. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 30, 2020 at 11:22 AM (#5954485)
Where I am coming out on this is, if you are looking for trends in the COVID data, unless you are dealing with a locality that has a severe outbreak, you are probably better off looking at actual reported deaths than excess deaths, since the uncertainties in the excess deaths (both baseline and current deaths unrelated to COVID) swamp the signal, and especially swamp the weekly changes in the signal, which are even more minor.

This is trivially obvious in places like Hawaii where there are so few deaths you could never identify trends using excess death data, but it is also true in places like Florida.
   4426. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 30, 2020 at 11:29 AM (#5954486)
Sweden finally broke it's streak of reported deaths (date of report) being higher than the same weekday a week prior. I think Sweden might be at an interesting point. If their deaths don't start dropping again soon (within a week or two) I wouldn't be shocked if they actually decided to increase restrictions (I wouldn't expect a full lockdown... just recommendations for increased vigilance/restrictions).
   4427. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 30, 2020 at 01:08 PM (#5954493)
Mr. N, I have a question in trying to understand the second to last paragraph in your post where you quote from the previous post the following:

"If a lawyer had knowingly attributed that fake quote to Ion in a brief to a judge, he or she would be subject to suspension or disbarment" (apologize about my inability to use the quote feature)

When you wrote "Not a word of this is true," were you referring to the above quoted language (as well as the other language you quoted)?
Well, obviously it's not good to make a factual misrepresentation in a brief. But lawyers don't get suspended or disbarred for doing that; that notion is like, "If a cop had been rude to a private citizen, he'd have been suspended or fired." That's just not how it works in the real world. But remember the important point here: there was no fake quote. It was accurate. It was lightly paraphrased, to be sure, and therefore should not have been in quotation marks. But it accurately conveyed what Ion said, despite FLTB's pretense. And the worst that would ever happen for accurately reporting a statement but inaccurately putting it in quotes is a "Be careful" admonition from a judge. (More likely the judge would look at opposing counsel who brought up that non-issue and say, "I'm a busy judge; don't waste my time with such pettiness.")


(The rest of FLTB's quote was far worse; as always, he doesn't know the law at all.)
   4428. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 30, 2020 at 01:22 PM (#5954496)
Friday at midnight, the Supreme Court rejected a church’s challenge to California’s COVID-19 restrictions by a 5–4 vote, with Chief Justice John Roberts joining the liberals. In a pointed opinion, Roberts indicated that he will not join conservative judges’ escalating efforts to override public health measures in the name of religious freedom
His opinion ends with a clear swipe at Kavanaugh: “The notion that it is ‘indisputably clear’ that the Government’s limitations are unconstitutional,” the chief justice wrote, “seems quite improbable.” Roberts went out of his way to telegraph his displeasure with the raft of lawsuits contesting COVID-19 restrictions as unconstitutional burdens on religious liberty. Even in borderline cases, he suggested, courts must defer to the people’s representatives if they decide the health crisis requires limitations on public assemblies.
link
   4429. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 30, 2020 at 01:34 PM (#5954497)
There's a good case to be made that there are fewer deaths being missed by the official data now, since testing has improved. For example, pretty much no cases were identified in the US before early March, so pretty much every death in February and the first two week of March was missed. In the last two week of March, as a country we may have only identified 10% of the deaths. (8000 or so versus the actual 800 identified, as supported by that Harvard study that said something similar). This would follow from the fact that the disease didn't just suddenly show up out of nowhere, but had been gradually increasing throughout February and early March in many places in the US. The testing quickly ramped up in late March though, and continued to rise throughout April and May, as the rate testing positive fell. As such, we might very well expect to be catching a higher percentage of deaths now. Maybe only 50% in early April when NYC was at its peak, to 2/3 by mid/late April, to 80% by early/mid may, potentially even 90% now. (Numbers just approximate guesses). If so, we might not expect to see huge undercounts in parts of the USA that have been diligent about testing and had later peaks.

Some recently complied data (paywalled) finds an excess a little over +25% over what was recorded.
   4430. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 30, 2020 at 01:44 PM (#5954498)
Actually it looks like we identified close to 4000 deaths in March after all (almost all the last week of March), so maybe that represented 1/3 to 1/2 of the total for March.
   4431. puck Posted: May 30, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5954499)
Are there sites that update the movement data based on people's cell phone tracking?

Curious how much has changed with states opening up.
   4432. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 30, 2020 at 02:04 PM (#5954500)
Here's one, puck

ETA: grading's uninteresting; the 40% cutoff means mostly Fs but there is data
   4433. PreservedFish Posted: May 30, 2020 at 02:06 PM (#5954501)
(The rest of FLTB's quote was far worse; as always, he doesn't know the law at all.)


His performance in the last page was a real doozy - capped off with the Trumpian tactic of accusing everyone else of trolling - but I'll say this for him: "The Decline" has never felt so real.
   4434. . Posted: May 30, 2020 at 02:30 PM (#5954506)
His performance in the last page was a real doozy - capped off with the Trumpian tactic of accusing everyone else of trolling


??

I didn't accuse *anyone* of trolling. I said one person made a false quote and he stood up and admitted it on his own. In the midst of that, based on far more than just that single quote, I then made a persuasive case that current law should be changed to make places like BTF and Twitter responsible for the falsehoods, slanders, and libels that may happen to get printed on their sites, just as "traditional" publishers are.(*)

As to the late-arriving stalky barge-in, if people want to throw him the occasional hobbit's toe or wren's liver, have at it.

(*) Twitter more than BTF, of course -- Twitter's a flat-out cesspool. I wouldn't say the same about BTF.
   4435. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 30, 2020 at 02:39 PM (#5954510)

capped off with the Trumpian tactic of accusing everyone else of trolling
IKYABWAI is like their family motto.
   4436. baxter Posted: May 30, 2020 at 02:46 PM (#5954511)
4427
Thank you for the explanation.
With regard to "a lawyer had knowingly attributing a fake quote...,"
I believe (as one in the same profession as you), it would subject the attorney to discipline (if reported to the bar). What would happen would depend on context, as does much in life and in the law. There is a disciplinary case in CA of a prosecutor including a defendant's confession (completely made up) in discovery to defense counsel.

If counsel deliberately changed the words in a quoted portion of a case, counsel could face discipline. I have never seen disbarment from that (based on my periodic readings of the bar disciplinary proceedings from my state). But, I have seen attorneys get sanctioned for citing unpublished opinions (these are written opinions from the intermediate appellate court; however, they are not included in the California Appellate reports, hence "unpublished").

Now, when you give an example of police officer being rude, you are talking about something I am more familiar with. I am not familiar with case involving police misconduct where a department terminated an officer for rudeness. But, if there is a complaint, the department is obligated to record it and investigate. The investigation may result in deeming the complaint unfounded. If founded, the department may take action (from what I have seen in county I work) from informal counseling, verbal reprimand, loss of pay, suspension, etc.

But to equate a complaint, whether made to a police department formally, or someone complaining to friends after a traffic ticket to a lawyer making something up in a brief is a very big false equivalency. People complain (rightly or wrongly, I offer no opinion) about police frequently (in my area of practice), but I have NEVER seen a falsification in a brief of a quote. Yes, the falsification might get sloughed off, but it certainly would depend on context (who made it, the lawyer's history before the bench officer, etc.)

I belabor this point because I take your posts seriously and when they contain legal analysis about areas with which I am unfamiliar, I often accept your interpretations. I am not familiar with the civil liability of internet platform providers for the content displayed on websites (other than I believe it's very limited), so I am relying on your interpretation. When you do discuss areas of law with which I am familiar and your interpretation differs from mine, it may make me question my interpretation, but it also makes me question yours.

You describe putting something in quote marks as "a light paraphrase." I disagree very strongly with you on that one. You would be welcome to make that explanation to a judge and see where it gets you.

I read post 4335, it does use the word ballpark (to my surprise; I had read the preprint, but hadn't remembered the quote). The other passage was not a quote, as the original poster acknowleged.

I agree with your underlying conclusions, but the reasoning important also.


   4437. baxter Posted: May 30, 2020 at 02:46 PM (#5954512)
Delete double post, first post is verbose enough
   4438. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 30, 2020 at 02:50 PM (#5954513)
Please tell me you aren't hoping for a disaster, just so you can be proven right. (With some of these people I watch on TV...it's as if they're waiting around like the 1972 Miami Dolphins, with champagne corks ready to pop...)


When did you have your sense of humor removed?
   4439. . Posted: May 30, 2020 at 02:54 PM (#5954514)
With regard to "a lawyer had knowingly attributing a fake quote...,"
I believe (as one in the same profession as you), it would subject the attorney to discipline (if reported to the bar).


Of course it would. If a lawyer that worked for me knowingly put something like that in a brief and I found out, I'd recommend his/her firing and the recommendation would be accepted in less than ten seconds.

I belabor this point because I take your posts seriously and when they contain legal analysis about areas with which I am unfamiliar, I often accept your interpretations.


Might be time for a reboot on that one.
   4440. puck Posted: May 30, 2020 at 03:07 PM (#5954515)
Here's one, puck

ETA: grading's uninteresting; the 40% cutoff means mostly Fs but there is data


Thanks! That's good. The "difference in encounter density" is interesting. Might be better than miles travelled, as there's a lot of spread out areas here (CO).
   4441. BrianBrianson Posted: May 30, 2020 at 03:53 PM (#5954520)
#4413 traffic deaths should be down as well. But those are a relatively small number compared to COVID deaths here, and even smaller in Europe.


I'm not sure how familiar you are with European traffic, but it's totally unfathomable by North American standards. I've twice lived on streets in Europe that wouldn't be considered adequate driveways in North America ...maybe the one in France, but in England our street was maybe six feet across, traffic went in two ways, and on the end that connected to another street, a ten foot high hedge was ~18 inches from the corner. You couldn't see oncoming traffic. You could only stop, trust oncoming traffic could see you, then turn onto the street.
   4442. BrianBrianson Posted: May 30, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5954521)
Tho in fairness to France, they didn't go looking for what they got; theirs was a fairly early asskicking that they seem to have tamped down.


Maybe, though the "how badly things have turned out for you is mostly a reflection of how badly off you were on March ~15 when everyone started quarantining" is not a popular narrative, though I suspect it's part of the truth. How amenable the people are to anti-disease measures, and how much you're actually doing post-reopening, probably do matter.

We'll seee.
   4443. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 30, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5954522)
The CDC's own "average" estimate for excess deaths, seemingly through May 16, is 129,000 (you can download the spreadsheet to see this). It's hard to figure exactly how they came about that number though. It seems to be accounting for an estimated 20,000 more deaths that have not been recorded yet for February through May 16, due to lags in data. I have no idea if that is a reasonable estimate, but in certain locations, like Georgia, it is clearly insufficient, since it shows deaths below historical average all of a sudden starting in mid-May. It is also seems to show too few excess deaths in March, and, if you use January and February as a control, starts with a baseline that is slightly higher than deaths that were being recorded the first two months of the year (by about 5,000).

With two more weeks booked now, the CDC's current estimate should be around 145,000 I would guess.

Based on these numbers, and the logic that we should potentially have fewer excess deaths now than we did before, I might estimate excess deaths over COVID-labeled deaths (including probables) in the US at around +25%-+60% or so. It seems hard to get to to much less than that unless a lot more places than I realize are using the "probable" label.
   4444. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 30, 2020 at 04:26 PM (#5954523)
Thanks! That's good. The "difference in encounter density" is interesting. Might be better than miles travelled, as there's a lot of spread out areas here (CO).


TX, too. Must be 70 counties where you could get everybody in one building and maintain 6-12 feet.
   4445. baxter Posted: May 30, 2020 at 04:48 PM (#5954524)
4439 You move the goalposts. A lawyer would be subject to discipline by the regulatory agency for lawyers, in California the state bar.

What the lawyer's employer would do is meaningless.

You did have an accurate quote to support your argument, the part that included the word "ballpark" (I'm surprised to find that word in scientific article, but scientific articles aren't my field).

If the science proceeds the way Branson has described on these pages, maybe that Santa Clara paper is not as egregious as I thought. The sampling methodology (along with the disclosure regarding the sharing of the study link) troubles me.

The point that more people had the virus than the ones who got tested seems obvious, particularly given that many people are asymptomatic. But how many people that is remains unclear. Perhaps a consensus will emerge. Then maybe a heretic scientist will upset the consensus.
   4446. . Posted: May 30, 2020 at 05:06 PM (#5954525)
4439 You move the goalposts. A lawyer would be subject to discipline by the regulatory agency for lawyers, in California the state bar.

What the lawyer's employer would do is meaningless.


It's just another example of the point and potential ramification. You're right of course that employer discipline is meaningless to bar discipline (*) (beyond the fact that the faking party would likely point to the loss of job as punishment already received by way of arguing for a lesser sanction. The argument is made all the time in white-collar law enforcement matters with spotty success; I have no idea how well it plays to state bar disciplinary boards.)

The point that more people had the virus than the ones who got tested seems obvious, particularly given that many people are asymptomatic.


It seems obvious now, but it was anything but then. In any event, the hypothesis needed significant scientific confirmation and Ion/cohorts got that started. (Actually, if memory serves, they came after Bonn, but first in the US.)


(*) More precisely, the fact that an employer finds something worthy of termination isn't relevant to whether that same thing also violates state bar disciplinary rules.
   4447. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 30, 2020 at 05:17 PM (#5954527)
The point that more people had the virus than the ones who got tested seems obvious, particularly given that many people are asymptomatic. But how many people that is remains unclear. Perhaps a consensus will emerge. Then maybe a heretic scientist will upset the consensus.


I think this touches at an implicit assumption in the discussion on this subject. There's no reason to think "a consensus will emerge" on the specific question of how many "more people had the virus than the ones that got tested" because the answer is obviously highly dependent on the availability of tests. In the Santa Clara study, they concluded that 85x as many people were infected than had gotten positive tests. Setting aside how that number was derived, it was a plausible answer for Santa Clara because even taking the number of positive tests and multiplying by 85 that still was only about 3% of the population that had it. But it is not possible the number of actual cases in, say, the state of Massachusetts is 85x the number of positive tests in the state of Massachusetts because, per Worldometers, there have thus far been 13,972 positive tests per million people in Massachusetts. If you multiply 13,972 times 85, though, that would imply there were actually 1,187,620 coronavirus cases per 1,000,000 people in Massachusetts. This is obviously impossible. But that does not mean that the correct multiplier couldn't be 85 in Santa Clara or in Brazil or India or some other place. But not Massachusetts (or New York or New Jersey or a few other places in the U.S. and several places in Europe, et al.).

Now, what could (maybe even "should") be more constant across areas is the IFR. So, it could be reasonable to extrapolate a well-estimated IFR from, say, Santa Clara, and assume it would hold in Massachusetts (or vice versa). But only if you understand the first point - the rate of infection and the discrepancy between positive tests and actual cases - will be highly specific to a specific region and, even within that region, to specific sub-areas or specific sites (or specific self-selected populations) which may have much wider or poorer access to testing (and/or wider or sparser access to the virus itself).
   4448. . Posted: May 30, 2020 at 05:25 PM (#5954528)
In the Santa Clara study, they concluded that 85x as many people were infected than had gotten positive tests.


I'll leave it to the audience to decide how pedantic this is and will offer no editorial comment:

Fifty to 85 times, not 85 times.
   4449. Laser Man Posted: May 30, 2020 at 05:37 PM (#5954529)
It seems obvious now, but it was anything but then
I think this has been obvious for a long time, but the challenge has been to determine the correction factor. Worldwide, and in the United Staes, the CFR has been around 6% for a long time. But the consensus was that the IFR was actually around 1%, implying that only 1 in 6 cases was being detected. Most experts felt that the ratio of infections to positive cases was 5-10x; the Stanford paper stated that the ratio was 50-85x. That is why the paper was noteworthy.
   4450. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 30, 2020 at 06:25 PM (#5954532)
National Guard Says No 'Child Soldiers' Were Deployed to Control Protests
here's a fun headline from idi amin's america
   4451. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 30, 2020 at 06:25 PM (#5954533)
The Santa Clara paper did not just posit a 50-85x multiple on actual cases to reported cases. It also posited an IFR of 0.12-0.2%, but acknowledged various reasons why that might be too high. It did not acknowledge that it might be too low. At least that was true of the preprint; I haven’t read the revised version yet.
   4452. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 30, 2020 at 06:29 PM (#5954535)
The Santa Clara paper did not just posit a 50-85x multiple on actual cases to reported cases. It also posited an IFR of 0.12-0.2%, but acknowledged various reasons why that might be too high. It did not acknowledge that it might be too low. At least that was true of the preprint; I haven’t read the revised version yet.
"preprint"
   4453. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 30, 2020 at 06:56 PM (#5954539)
We were discussing asymptomatic/undiagnosed cases, underreporting of cases, and the potential effect on the fatality rate on the first page of the old coronavirus thread on March 2. The notion that it wasn’t obvious in mid-April, when the Santa Clara preprint was released, is ridiculous. Their assertion of 50-85x, and the way that some used that data (including the study’s authors and some people here) to argue that the true IFR of the disease was really 0.1-0.2%, when the actual numbers nationwide were probably more like 5-10x and 0.75-1.5%, was likely more damaging to the country’s understanding of the disease than it was elucidating. At the very best I think it was a giant waste of time, but a good lesson in statistics and the weaknesses in scientific publishing and journalistic practices.
   4454. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 30, 2020 at 07:44 PM (#5954546)
This is one reason why it is very hard to use the CDC data for recent excess death calculation:

Previous analyses of provisional data completeness from 2015 suggested that mortality data is approximately 27% complete within 2 weeks, 54% complete within 4 weeks, and at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8). Pneumonia deaths are 26% complete within 2 weeks, 52% complete within 4 weeks, and 72% complete within 8 weeks (unpublished). Data timeliness has improved in recent years, and current timeliness is likely higher than published rates.
   4455. baxter Posted: May 30, 2020 at 09:18 PM (#5954551)
4453 Yes, more, but not like 85x (or 50x) as has been pointed out repeatedly, b/c the amount of dead when multiplied out (as a fraction of cases) exceeded the population.

There had to be an undercount if people were asymptomatic, had the disease w/o even being aware of it; would have had no reason to be tested; indeed would not meet the criteria to receive a test.

The underestimating of the infection fatality rate was much worse than a waste of time.
   4456. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 30, 2020 at 09:29 PM (#5954552)
The group that had the data posted in the Washington Post earlier found an undercount of about 35% (not the 35% I mentioned earlier). Data is here.
   4457. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 30, 2020 at 09:53 PM (#5954557)
Looking at their data further, they have a 95% confidence interval of +27% to +42%. Even at the upper end, this data says we identified 50% of the deaths prior to the end of March (and at the lower end it assumes about 2/3). These seems pretty optimistic, which makes me wonder if their baseline is still off, at least for March and earlier. Plenty of evidence to suggest it is too high for January/February, because before cornoavirus hit (Jan/Feb), it estimated 10,000-20,000 deaths more than were actually recorded. If you assume a lower baseline to adjust for this as well, you get to around +50%.
   4458. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: May 30, 2020 at 10:36 PM (#5954559)
One of my cats died today. It broke my heart, and now I can't help but fear that, considering the way this thread has gone, Ioannidis will publish a study saying that there will be no more cat deaths for the BBTF/CV19 crew.
   4459. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 30, 2020 at 10:43 PM (#5954560)
Sorry, man. Been through a few of those and I've got a 15 y.o. now. Mourn it, then visit Petfinder, depressing as it is to think about how many cats are looking for homes.
   4460. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 30, 2020 at 11:10 PM (#5954561)
   4461. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 30, 2020 at 11:22 PM (#5954562)
greenback, sorry about your cat. it sucks.
   4462. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 30, 2020 at 11:26 PM (#5954563)
Previous analyses of provisional data completeness from 2015 suggested that mortality data is approximately 27% complete within 2 weeks, 54% complete within 4 weeks, and at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8). Pneumonia deaths are 26% complete within 2 weeks, 52% complete within 4 weeks, and 72% complete within 8 weeks (unpublished). Data timeliness has improved in recent years, and current timeliness is likely higher than published rates.


I pulled down the CDC mortality data by week from here.

It's really cool data - it gives total deaths by week by state for all of 2019 and 2020 (through the week ending May 16th when I pulled it down - I assume it updates weekly; not sure when) and also breaks out deaths by some broad categories (it breaks out "Natural" and "COVID" among others). But WOW is it clearly sketchy in some places.

For example, for the 52 weeks of 2019 and the first 9 weeks of 2020 (through the week ending Feb 29), the state of Connecticut reported between 537 and 734 deaths every week. Bit of a range, mostly seasonal (all of the numbers under 600 were last summer). But they report 11 weeks since then, for which the number of deaths in Connecticut were, in order, 198-191-216-243-222-360-475-299-39-0-0. It appears that nobody died in the entire state of Connecticut from May 3 - May 16 of this year.

Oh, and I mentioned that the CDC breaks out COVID as one of its causes of death, right? Here's Connecticut's COVID deaths in the same weeks: 0-0-0-42-146-346-467-295-39-0-0.

Which leaves Connecticut's non-COVID deaths over these 11 weeks as 198-191-216-201-76-14-8-4-0-0-0. Which, um, seems pretty unlikely.

Anyway, this is fascinating data. But, realistically, it's going to be awfully hard to draw particularly detailed conclusions about excess deaths for several months if not a year or two. (And while the Connecticut data, for example, is obviously unusable right now, the problem is that there are other states where the data is not OBVIOUSLY unusable yet, but probably really is - especially when what you're looking for - excess deaths - would actually work to HIDE the problem.)

   4463. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 30, 2020 at 11:43 PM (#5954565)
Yeah it's weird about the Connecticut data in that set--big portions of it just seems to be missing. Also, I think it's just very hard to use the data up through 5/16 for almost any state because the correction for underreporting is just too severe that you could get very different results with some minor changes to the assumptions. Data through 5/9 is a little more reliable, and through 5/2 is pretty good at this point with only minor adjustments.

Another weird thing is that the data set the Washington Post guys used (also linked above) is very similar to the CDC data for the first 15 or so weeks of 2020, but not exactly the same, and it's not at all obvious why there's a difference.

Ultimately, I go back to my main point above--excess deaths are very useful to get a general sense of the magnitude of the problem, but that's only clearly true if they dwarf the selection of baseline. That's not really the case right now in most of the states that are at issue today, like Georgia and Florida. And, if you are looking for trends in the data in these states, probably the reported data is superior right now anyway.
   4464. Ron J Posted: May 30, 2020 at 11:59 PM (#5954566)
Greenback, sorry about your cat. I know how much it hurts to lose a furry friend.
   4465. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 31, 2020 at 12:29 AM (#5954568)
Greenback, I’m so sorry about your cat. Thank you for giving him/her a good home.
   4466. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 31, 2020 at 12:49 AM (#5954569)
Michael Lee @MrMichaelLee
I’ve got to say 2020 is hitting on every type of traumatic event possible - pandemic, economic devastation, unimaginable unemployment, protests across the country - & we ain’t even halfway through it yet
   4467. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 31, 2020 at 01:30 AM (#5954570)
More evidence that the adjustment of the CDC upward due to udnercounting have not in the past been sufficient (noting that this is a singular event, so it is difficult to know ahead of time that adjustments should mimic what we experienced in a normal year: a month ago the same estimator on twitter had Week 15 as about 70,000 deaths. It's already at 74,000, and the CDC estimates that it will reach 78,000. The 70,000 estimate (from 60,000 at that time) turned out to be off by a factor of about 2 or more.

Probably a bad idea to assume we can accurately read up-to-date trends in the all-cause mortality data.
   4468. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: May 31, 2020 at 02:48 AM (#5954572)
ok one more. Same analyst keeps saying that Florida is back to normal excess death levels. Last week he said that as of 5/9, but clearly this week as of 5/9 that's not true, and he's now saying it was true as of 5/16. Florida's data has been slower to be reported than expected and it's throwing off the analysis. He doesn't remember because for him the story has been that Florida is back to normal "as of two weeks ago", and that story remains true based on the most recent numbers.

Florida might have returned to a normal number of deaths by now, but based on the date we are getting from tests/cases/deaths, it seems pretty unlikely. Like it was for Sweden, this would have been a good opportunity to look behind the numbers to see if they matched up with data from other sources, and if there might be something else going on. Chance not taken.

On this note, his latest estimate for the week ending 5/30 is about 51,000 deaths. That would be below the expected number, for the last week of May, even if there were no coronavirus at all. Obviously something wrong there--it's an extrapolation of the steep downward trend coming off the peak weeks, when clearly we are now very close to flat (still slightly downward in deaths, but not nearly at the same rate any more, and arguably flat in cases/testing).

If you take out NY/NJ/CT/MA, then cases, tests, and percent testing positive have all plateaued in the last two weeks. That means deaths are likely to plateau outside those states as well. With delays in reporting it might take another week or two before we see that.
   4469. PreservedFish Posted: May 31, 2020 at 08:09 AM (#5954573)
Michael Lee @MrMichaelLee
I’ve got to say 2020 is hitting on every type of traumatic event possible - pandemic, economic devastation, unimaginable unemployment, protests across the country - & we ain’t even halfway through it yet


We're still missing environmental devastation and a major act of war/terrorism.
   4470. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: May 31, 2020 at 08:20 AM (#5954574)
The Australian wildfires were pretty bad as far as environmental devastation goes.
   4471. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 31, 2020 at 08:20 AM (#5954575)
One of my cats died today. It broke my heart, and now I can't help but fear that, considering the way this thread has gone, Ioannidis will publish a study saying that there will be no more cat deaths for the BBTF/CV19 crew.


Second! Motion carried!

I've lost two. Brought them both to the vet, and...they never came home. Sigh.

We're still missing environmental devastation and a major act of war/terrorism.


Patience.
   4472. PreservedFish Posted: May 31, 2020 at 08:26 AM (#5954576)
The Australian wildfires were pretty bad as far as environmental devastation goes.

Sorry, yes. I was thinking about America only. Environmental devastation and war are global constants.
   4473. . Posted: May 31, 2020 at 08:44 AM (#5954579)
On the theme of obvious, I wouldn't say that the intelligent, ahead of their time, reasoned speculations of maybe like ten or 20 (*) pretty smart and informed people on a baseball message board make those speculations "obvious" when we're talking about society at large. Although they were pretty clear, it still took society at large time to discover them. Along that same theme, here's a clip from Maureen Dowd's column today:

“The shareholders of Facebook decided, ‘If you can increase my stock tenfold, we can put up with a lot of rage and hate,’” says Scott Galloway, professor of marketing at New York University’s Stern School of Business.

“These platforms have very dangerous profit motives. When you monetize rage at such an exponential rate, it’s bad for the world. These guys don’t look left or right; they just look down. They’re willing to promote white nationalism if there’s money in it.(**) The rise of social media will be seen as directly correlating to the decline of Western civilization.”


On the merits, Dowd argues for the banning of Trump from Twitter. I wouldn't have a problem with that (***), just so long as the same principles applied to Trump are applied across-the-board.(****) There's no reason for an iota of confidence that they would be.

(*) Or whatever.

(**) And, while of course left unsaid, extremely willing to promote leftist drivel, including that with avowedly violent yearnings or propensities. They're complete cancers on the culture and the country.

(***) Naturally, since I wouldn't have a problem with Twitter ceasing to exist.

(****) As always, content-based restrictions and actions violate every principle of fair procedures and process and access to the levers of government and power -- and are therefore to be condemned. Anyone interested in the underpinnings of my process/procedures-based philosophy should start with John Hart Ely's "Democracy and Distrust."
   4474. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: May 31, 2020 at 09:05 AM (#5954580)
I’ve got to say 2020 is hitting on every type of traumatic event possible - pandemic, economic devastation, unimaginable unemployment, protests across the country - & we ain’t even halfway through it yet


How quickly we have forgotten impeachment.
   4475. Ron J Posted: May 31, 2020 at 09:51 AM (#5954581)
May be of interest to those interested in modeling Covid-19.

Interview with Karl Friston

It's a little vague, and kind of hand wavey at some points. But he discusses using concepts inspired by Richard Feynman to build models (and claims that to date they have been very accurate for the UK)

Worth the read I think.
   4476. gef, talking mongoose & vexatious litigant Posted: May 31, 2020 at 11:06 AM (#5954584)
How quickly we have forgotten impeachment.


And murder hornets.

(Add in, of course only for me, getting my car stolen in Atlanta in early March.)
   4477. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 31, 2020 at 11:55 AM (#5954586)
Oh, ye of little faith. Hurricane season doesn't start until tomorrow (even if once again we've already had our first named storms) and wildfire season starts in earnest the second half of the summer.

For consolation, a least through 30 April we're having our deadliest tornado season since the devastating 2011. And we have an election coming. Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
   4478. Ron J Posted: May 31, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5954593)
On the short list for most infuriating outbreak. New Brunswick went from 0 active cases to 150+ people exposed and 2 in the ICU due to one person.

A doctor went on a personal trip to Quebec (the center of the outbreak in Canada) and did not self-isolate on return (required by provincial rules if you travel outside the province). Instead he went straight back to work. 8 of his patients have tested positive and they're scrambling to contact everybody else he's been in contact with. After working for two weeks.

He's been suspended. The RCMP is investigating whether criminal charges are merited
   4479. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 31, 2020 at 01:33 PM (#5954594)
We're still missing environmental devastation and a major act of war/terrorism.
Dogs and cats, living together.
   4480. Lassus Posted: May 31, 2020 at 03:08 PM (#5954599)
"The rise of social media will be seen as directly correlating to the decline of Western civilization.”
It is surely a plague that will destroy civilization.
   4481. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 31, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5954604)
an update: I am permanently blind in my left eye, and the docs absolutely refuse to let me go back to work for they say six weeks. I’m definitely not allowed to be near smoke or gas.

Usually if I had to stay home I’d spend a lot of time amplifying folk but reading hurts today

— Linda Tirado (@KillerMartinis) May 30, 2020
Police just raided the gas station we were sheltering at. After shouting press multiple times and raising my press card in the air, I was thrown to the ground. Then another cop came up and peppered sprayed me in the face while I was being held down. pic.twitter.com/23EkZIMAFC

— Michael Anthony Adams (@MichaelAdams317) May 31, 2020
This is the moment Minneapolis Police fired on our CBS News crew with rubber bullets. As you can see, no protesters anywhere near us- we all were wearing credentials and had cameras out. Our sound engineer was hit in the arm. #cbsnews pic.twitter.com/UAy7HYhGnL

— Michael George (@MikeGeorgeCBS) May 31, 2020
   4482. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: May 31, 2020 at 06:50 PM (#5954610)
So much winning.
   4483. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 31, 2020 at 07:22 PM (#5954613)
Trump, Lacking Clear Authority, Says U.S. Will Declare Antifa a Terrorist Group


So much for good people on both sides; its a choice: embrace fascism or be an enemy of the people.
   4484. puck Posted: May 31, 2020 at 07:30 PM (#5954614)
   4485. Tony S Posted: May 31, 2020 at 07:31 PM (#5954615)
Antifa isn't even a formal organization. This gutless coward in the White House is just trying to deflect attention from his own myriad failures.

If opposing fascism is a being a terrorist, then we were the terrorists in WWII...

To circle this back to COVID, BLM is scheduling a protest march in my own town on Friday. The flyer explicitly says, "Masks are required for this event." I still think it's too much close contact with too many people, masks or not, and don't endorse this gathering, sympathetic as I might be to the message.
   4486. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 31, 2020 at 07:41 PM (#5954617)
If opposing fascism is a being a terrorist, then we were the terrorists in WWII...

I hope you're not looking for him to disagree.
   4487. Tony S Posted: May 31, 2020 at 07:49 PM (#5954618)
Bizarre, we're sending hydroxychloroquine to Brazil?


Either Brazil has the highest incidences of lupus and malaria in the world, or it's the one major country with even worse national leadership than the US.
   4488. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: May 31, 2020 at 08:14 PM (#5954620)
Antifa isn't even a formal organization. This gutless coward in the White House is just trying to deflect attention from his own myriad failures.

And this is how Trump wins in November.

Thanks a lot.
   4489. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: May 31, 2020 at 08:21 PM (#5954622)
I would probably take Trump over Bolsonaro.
   4490. Tony S Posted: May 31, 2020 at 08:25 PM (#5954623)
I would probably take Trump over Bolsonaro.


I guess scurvy is probably worse than rickets. :)
   4491. Mayor Blomberg Posted: May 31, 2020 at 08:41 PM (#5954626)
I would probably take Trump over Bolsonaro.

cage match?
   4492. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 31, 2020 at 09:29 PM (#5954628)
And this is how Trump wins in November.

Thanks a lot.
gtfoohwtbs
   4493. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 31, 2020 at 09:46 PM (#5954629)
Either Brazil has the highest incidences of lupus and malaria in the world, or it's the one major country with even worse national leadership than the US.
there's a good chance it's also part of a kickback scheme. misappropriation of "emergency" funds is one of the easier ways for corrupt governments to launder huge amounts of money into the pockets of their benefactors before any pesky oversight can kick in.
   4494. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: May 31, 2020 at 09:48 PM (#5954630)
A tanker truck barreled through thousands of peaceful protesters in Minneapolis as the crowd rushed out of the way. The driver was arrested and officials said no one was hit, though some protesters told local media that they had seen people with injuries.
https://t.co/FohD5ehXFA
pic.twitter.com/E6hssu9yaQ

— The New York Times (@nytimes) June 1, 2020
   4495. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 31, 2020 at 10:11 PM (#5954633)
Antifa isn't even a formal organization. This gutless coward in the White House is just trying to deflect attention from his own myriad failures.

If opposing fascism is a being a terrorist, then we were the terrorists in WWII...
Antifa opposes fascism in the same way that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is a democratic republic.
   4496. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 31, 2020 at 10:13 PM (#5954634)
The tanker truck did not barrel through anyone. Watch the video. It did exactly the opposite.

EDIT: The video posted above, from that angle, makes it hard to see. Try this link. You can see that it drives through the crowd after the crowd parts, and then stops as soon as it gets to an actual person.
   4497. Laser Man Posted: May 31, 2020 at 10:15 PM (#5954635)
Has Brazil been posting detailed numbers about their total number of coronavirus tests? According to Worldometers, they have 514,869 positive cases out of 930,013 total tests, for an astonishing positive test rate of 55%. I'm guessing that the total test number is inaccurate, but who knows?
   4498. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: May 31, 2020 at 10:50 PM (#5954636)
there's a good chance it's also part of a kickback scheme. misappropriation of "emergency" funds is one of the easier ways for corrupt governments to launder huge amounts of money into the pockets of their benefactors before any pesky oversight can kick in.
well it’s a good thing we have safety nets like independent inspectors general to prevent that from happening.
   4499. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: May 31, 2020 at 10:52 PM (#5954637)
cage match?
i’d pay my 39.95 to see that. I’d even chant “USA USA” if Trump wins.
   4500. baxter Posted: May 31, 2020 at 11:08 PM (#5954639)
4496 What do you think would have happened if those people had not run out of the way? People ran out of the way to avoid being hit. You make it sound as if the truck inched through the crowd. Barreling is an apt adjective for what the truckdriver did. He could have killed someone, especially if one had tripped in scrambling out of the way.

There is a jury instruction that says it is a fact that two people witnessing the same event can see if differently, so I would encourage people, if interested, to watch the video for themselves.

But, I have to tell you Mr. N your factual pronouncements lead me to reconsider your judgement, which, I had frequently entertained quite seriously. You may not care about my opinion, certainly your prerogative, but it really does undercut the accuracy of your judgments.
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