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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 6412 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   4601. PreservedFish Posted: June 02, 2020 at 01:23 PM (#5954924)
“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan told RAI television. “The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago.”


I read the same article yesterday. Tremendous news if true. But I felt a twinge of doubt when I read his next quote:

“We’ve got to get back to being a normal country,” he said. “Someone has to take responsibility for terrorizing the country.”


Emphasis mine.
   4602. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 02, 2020 at 01:31 PM (#5954925)
I saw that too. I don't have the link, but I recall thinking that if he's arguing that the virus has run its course, period, then someone needs to carry the news to Brazil, UK, Sweden.

I also thought that he may be seeing people less sick who would not have gone anywhere near a hospital for testing.

And that there is very likely a connection between the "terror" and the litigation of the virus.

As well as that he would n't have done well on the analogy section of the SAT. (Is there one on the MCAT?) Or did I miss the bombings and mass executions that were part of Italy's mitigation plan because I don't watch Fox?
   4603. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 02, 2020 at 01:34 PM (#5954926)


Probably needs more rigorous confirmation, but it certainly appears that there's been a mutation into something nowhere near as bad. This is also confirmed by things like the continuing downtrend of problems in states that are nowhere near as locked down as at the peak:


Perhaps this is pedantic but I don't think something happening in the U.S. can be confirmation of something happening in Italy. If the virus mutated in both places it would have happened independently.

But I'm skeptical of those claims about Italy. Isn't it likely that less sick patients, who would have stayed home rather than seek treatment two months ago when the hospitals were overflowing, are now more willing to seek treatment?
   4604. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 02, 2020 at 01:39 PM (#5954927)

as you no doubt saw, Dave, I agree.

I struct by how bad the science -- or perhaps the reasoning -- once again is, and reminded of a colleague who also teaches at the Med Cenert and told me he was shocked at the inability of MDs/ MDs-to-be to read and analyze scientific data.
   4605. . Posted: June 02, 2020 at 01:53 PM (#5954930)
But I'm skeptical of those claims about Italy.


I'm not sure why. They haven't had anything like exponential spread since they've liberalized. The difference between now and the dark times can't be explained or even close to explained merely by the characteristics of interaction of potential hosts. Nor would that explain the fundamentally different swabs. Something else is obviously going on.

But I'm skeptical of those claims about Italy. Isn't it likely that less sick patients, who would have stayed home rather than seek treatment two months ago when the hospitals were overflowing, are now more willing to seek treatment?


Why would that lead to a fundamentally different swab?
   4606. PreservedFish Posted: June 02, 2020 at 02:15 PM (#5954933)
It would if there were a direct relationship between severity of the disease and the degree to which it is shed by patients. But I don't think that's been established, nor should it be assumed.
   4607. PreservedFish Posted: June 02, 2020 at 02:21 PM (#5954935)
They haven't had anything like exponential spread since they've liberalized.


This too, however, is difficult to say. Restaurants and bars reopened on May 18, as did "travel within the same regions." Certainly, there hasn't been a big uptick in the last week or so, but one can't be too confident yet. We've only just now entered the period of time in which an upswing in infections would become obvious. We'll know a lot more in just a couple weeks.
   4608. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 02, 2020 at 02:22 PM (#5954936)
No place in the world has seen exponential spread once serious mitigation measures were put into place. Italy, like everywhere else now, has, post lockdown, very significant customary and compulsory social distancing, including compulsory mask wearing.
   4609. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: June 02, 2020 at 02:24 PM (#5954937)
I read the same article yesterday. Tremendous news if true.


From the Guardian, yesterday:

That prompted cries of disbelief from other experts and a warning from the government that it was too early to celebrate.

“Pending scientific evidence to support the thesis that the virus has disappeared, I would invite those who say they are sure of it not to confuse Italians,” health ministry under-secretary Sandra Zampa said in a statement.

National Health Council head Franco Locatelli said he was “baffled” by Zangrillo’s comments. “It’s enough to look at the number of new positive cases confirmed every day to see the persistent circulation in Italy of the new coronavirus,” he said.

The director of the prestigious Spallazani infectious diseases institute in Rome, Giuseppe Ippolito, said there was no scientific proof the virus had mutated or changed in potency.


I would await actual evidence in this case.
   4610. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: June 02, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5954943)
No place in the world has seen exponential spread once serious mitigation measures were put into place. Italy, like everywhere else now, has, post lockdown, very significant customary and compulsory social distancing, including compulsory mask wearing.


Three weeks after the next Milan derby with a full stadium, we'll have a pretty good idea whether the virus truly is less transmissible than it was in February/March.
   4611. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 02, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5954944)
This too, however, is difficult to say. Restaurants and bars reopened on May 18, as did "travel within the same regions." Certainly, there hasn't been a big uptick in the last week or so, but one can't be too confident yet. We've only just now entered the period of time in which an upswing in infections would become obvious. We'll know a lot more in just a couple weeks.

Google Global Mobility data on Lombardy:

8 days prior to May 18 vs. 8 days including and after May 18:

Retail and recreation - down 67% --> down 42% (this includes bars and restaurants)
Grocery and pharmacy - down 35% --> down 22%
Parks - down 36% --> up 16%
Transit stations - down 64% --> down 51%
Workplaces - down 41% --> down 33%

Basically, all activity is still *way* down there from the baseline, other than at parks.
   4612. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 02, 2020 at 02:55 PM (#5954946)
4611 -- and no data from the cellphones on masks. Didn't Gates turn on their cameras?
   4613. . Posted: June 02, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5954948)
And so starts the inevitable:

RALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolina's governor said Tuesday that the GOP must prepare for a scaled-back Charlotte convention because of the coronavirus pandemic, with the national Republican chairwoman responding that organizers would begin visiting other potential host cities.

Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, said in a letter to the top convention organizer and the national GOP chairwoman that he's happy to continue conversations over how to hold the convention safely, and is still awaiting a safety plan requested by North Carolina officials.

"The people of North Carolina do not know what the status of COVID-19 will be in August, so planning for a scaled-down convention with fewer people, social distancing and face coverings is a necessity," Cooper said in the letter.


"Gather to riot and loot, but not to engage in peaceful politics" ... probably not a great look.
   4614. . Posted: June 02, 2020 at 03:04 PM (#5954949)
No place in the world has seen exponential spread once serious mitigation measures were put into place.


Begs the question. (Multiple questions, actually.) The underlying mutation question still needs more scientific exploration, to be sure.

Basically, all activity is still *way* down there from the baseline, other than at parks.


Right, but hospitalizations and deaths are down by significantly more.
   4615. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: June 02, 2020 at 03:14 PM (#5954950)
nevermind
   4616. Greg Pope Posted: June 02, 2020 at 03:53 PM (#5954964)
If the virus mutated in both places it would have happened independently.

Yeah, I'm a little confused by the implication here. The virus isn't an iPhone where an update gets rolled out across every single one. It multiplies and moves with hosts. So if strain X was in Italy and then came to the US, then strain X is now in the US. And it's being transmitted all around. If there's been a mutation in Italy to strain Y, then there wouldn't be any reason to think that we'd see strain Y here, would there? Especially with all of the travel restrictions.

Unless there's some sort of evolutionary force at work. Like strain X is held in check by the policies, but strain Y is not, so we'd expect X to evolve into Y everywhere.
   4617. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 02, 2020 at 03:58 PM (#5954966)
nevermind

Great album

Here we are now, entertain us
I feel stupid and contagious
   4618. Nasty Nate Posted: June 02, 2020 at 04:04 PM (#5954967)
nevermind
Great album

Here we are now, entertain us
I feel stupid and contagious
It is now my duty to completely drain you
I travel through a tube and end up in your infection
Chew my meat for you
Pass it back and forth in a passionate kiss
From my mouth to yours
   4619. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: June 02, 2020 at 04:20 PM (#5954972)
So if strain X was in Italy and then came to the US, then strain X is now in the US. And it's being transmitted all around. If there's been a mutation in Italy to strain Y, then there wouldn't be any reason to think that we'd see strain Y here, would there? Especially with all of the travel restrictions.

Unless there's some sort of evolutionary force at work. Like strain X is held in check by the policies, but strain Y is not, so we'd expect X to evolve into Y everywhere.


Or seasonal effects, I guess. A virus with a strong tendency towards rapid mutation might survive longer but be less potent/transmissable in one variation at higher (summer) temperatures, but in turn be 'outcompeted' by a different strain in winter conditions.

A strong tendency towards mutation would surely be bad news for us humans, though, because it makes it harder to craft a vaccine or even treatments that reduce the virus' effectiveness. It would be a moving target. We should definitely hope that lower numbers of cases and deaths in Spain, Italy, France, and so on indicate that lockdown measures are effective, treatments are improving, capacity for PPE and ICU beds is developing, and people are modifying their non-lockdown behaviours - including getting tested earlier and more often. That would be a better long-term driver of survival than a capricious, mutable virus that could in a few months become a far deadlier threat.
   4620. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: June 02, 2020 at 04:22 PM (#5954974)
A friend of mine & I bought Nevermind on the day it was released (on cassette!), went to his dorm room to listen to it, and both immediately decided that it had too much chorus pedal on it and was a huge disappointment.
   4621. . Posted: June 02, 2020 at 04:30 PM (#5954975)
If there's been a mutation in Italy to strain Y, then there wouldn't be any reason to think that we'd see strain Y here, would there?


Sure there is, if as is entirely possible, the natural development of the virus upon contact with humans over a particular period of time is to mutate to strain Y.

There's no serious empirical support at this point for the theory that the spread and potency is purely a function of degree/frequency of potential host conduct with one another. Something more is going on, beyond any serious doubt.
   4622. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 02, 2020 at 04:35 PM (#5954977)

Sure there is, if as is entirely possible, the natural development of the virus upon contact with humans over a particular period of time is to mutate to strain Y.
The Epstein theory! We have come full circle.
   4623. PreservedFish Posted: June 02, 2020 at 05:02 PM (#5954983)
I think he's right to say that it's possible. Lots of things are possible. Viruses do mutate, and although I presume it's very wrong to say that all viruses would mutate to "strain Y," it's possible that evolutionary pressure will tend to push different strains of the virus in the same direction. Frankly none of us have the slightest idea about this ####.

At the same time, it is not at all surprising to hear that various authorities have condemned what those two Italian docs said. As I said, the comments smelled wrong. To say, for example, that the virus "clinically no longer exists" even as 300-500 new cases are identified daily, and up to 100 die, is such a dramatic overbid (and so obviously incorrect) as to raise suspicion about his judgement and/or motivations. The comment about "terrorizing" the country may be even worse.
   4624. Hysterical & Useless Posted: June 02, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5954984)
the natural development of the virus upon contact with humans over a particular period of time is to mutate to strain Y.


IANAScientist, but I don't think that's really how evolution works. Mutations happen, and those which prove useful to an organisms reproductive success tend to crowd out those that are less helpful, but they don't have an innate tendency to mutate toward a particular end result.

Any biology majors (or practicing biologists), please correct/amplify as necessary.

ETA: PF got in 1st with the main point. Drink up, lad!
   4625. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 02, 2020 at 05:12 PM (#5954985)
As I said, the comments smelled wrong. To say, for example, that the virus "clinically no longer exists" even as 300-500 new cases are identified daily, and up to 100 die, is such a dramatic overbid (and so obviously incorrect) as to raise suspicion about his judgement and/or motivations. The comment about "terrorizing" the country may be even worse.


Or it may entitle him to honorary membership in the Hall of Cranks here
   4626. Snowboy Posted: June 02, 2020 at 05:18 PM (#5954986)
Ontario confirms 446 new COVID-19 cases, [Premier] Ford poised to extend state of emergency
Ontario reported 446 additional cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday as the legislature is expected to extend the province's state of emergency until June 30.

The 1.6 per cent increase in total cases comes as Ontario's network of about 20 labs processed 15,244 test samples yesterday, a second straight day below its own target of 16,000.

Yesterday, CBC News revealed that hundreds of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Toronto area were not flagged to public health officials because of a mixup between two hospitals. It meant that thousands of contacts of confirmed cases were not traced for weeks.
Exclusive: Hospitals failed to flag 700 positive COVID-19 tests to Ontario's public health units

The Ministry of Health's official death toll grew by 17 to 2,293. But the real COVID-19 death toll is at least 2,345, according to a CBC News count based on data from regional public health units.

About 79.5 per cent of all deaths were residents of long-term care homes. The province has tracked outbreaks of the novel coronavirus in 309 of Ontario's 630 long-term care facilities.
   4627. PreservedFish Posted: June 02, 2020 at 05:22 PM (#5954987)
Ontario reported 446 additional cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday


Oh, it's cool. That means that it clinically does not exist.
   4628. Lassus Posted: June 02, 2020 at 05:28 PM (#5954988)
Ask Doctor Period.
   4629. Snowboy Posted: June 02, 2020 at 05:28 PM (#5954989)
(Just FYI Ontario population: 13M, 14/km2. Italy pop: 60M, 206/km2)
   4630. Kiko Sakata Posted: June 02, 2020 at 05:36 PM (#5954992)
Barring something strange, it looks like tomorrow the UK is going to move ahead of Spain for 2nd(*) place and Sweden will pass France for 5th in per-capita deaths per Worldometers. They're both virtual ties right now. The U.S. is probably going to move up to 7th in a couple of weeks unless Brazil gets there first. As for actual death rate, given Brazil's ridiculously low reported # of tests (< 5,000 per million people) and insanely high positive test rate (58%), I wouldn't be shocked if it turned out they were already number one (they're 15th right now among "real" countries per Worldometers).

(*) excluding San Marino and Andorra which have reported a combined 93 deaths against a combined population of 111,180.
   4631. PreservedFish Posted: June 02, 2020 at 05:41 PM (#5954993)
Just FYI Ontario population: 13M, 14/km2. Italy pop: 60M, 206/km2)


Quiet, your context is blunting the impact of my surgical snark attack.
   4632. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 02, 2020 at 05:46 PM (#5954994)
The places where the vast majority of people actually live in Ontario probably look pretty similar to Italy in terms of density. Population density map.
   4633. Tony S Posted: June 02, 2020 at 05:46 PM (#5954995)
The comment about "terrorizing" the country may be even worse.


Yes, it was pretty foolish of him to say that -- it suggested an underlying agenda. Wonder why he couldn't resist.
   4634. Snowboy Posted: June 02, 2020 at 05:46 PM (#5954996)
It was well delivered PF, from behind your surgical mask!
   4635. Srul Itza Posted: June 02, 2020 at 06:01 PM (#5955000)
Ontario population: 13M, 14/km2[


While I largely agree with, is the latter a meaningful number?

Ontario is a very large province, some very large parts of which are largely empty, while the majority of the population is in Toronto and other areas close to the US border. For the majority of Ontario, the effective population density is a lot closer to the figure for Italy than for Ontario as a whole.

ETA: Should have read Dave's comment first
   4636. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: June 02, 2020 at 06:48 PM (#5955005)
IANAScientist, but I don't think that's really how evolution works. Mutations happen, and those which prove useful to an organisms reproductive success tend to crowd out those that are less helpful, but they don't have an innate tendency to mutate toward a particular end result.
I think the argument, if you can call it that, is that similar environments (humans in a first world country in the Northern Hemisphere) will put simlar evolutionary pressures on the virus and thus lead to similar results. This can absolutely happen in certain scenarios -- take a population of an organism, divide it in two, put both halves in separate deserts, and if they survive both populations wille eventually develop traits that lead them to need less water. The issue here is that my model scenario has one variable (dryness) that would exert overwhelming pressure, while the real world scenario (humans in first world countries) is so complex that it's all but impossible to imagine a single "direction" of evolutionary pressure.

(The above also ignores mutations that aren't affected one way or the other by evolutionary pressures and so can get through more or less randomly.)
   4637. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: June 02, 2020 at 07:42 PM (#5955010)
When thuggish Trump supporters armed to the teeth invaded government buildings because (as some explained) they were tired of not being able to buy garden supplies and get haircuts, Trump cheered them on. When Americans turned out to protest the killing of George Floyd, Trump called them “THUGS.” “The Governor of Michigan should give a little, and put out the fire,” Trump wrote about his supporters’ armed protests. “These are very good people, but they are angry. They want their lives back again, safely! See them, talk to them, make a deal.” These are good people, but grieving Americans demanding that police stop killing their countrymen are, in Trump’s discourse, sinister, “organized,” and “terrorists.”

link
   4638. Snowboy Posted: June 02, 2020 at 07:43 PM (#5955012)
Good points. Most of the reported cases, and the mixup/failure to report cases, are in the Toronto area, and that has a pop density more similar to Italy than the 13000 km2 mostly wide open spaces of Timiskaming.
But Premier Ford is going to extend the state of emergency for the entire province. And I was just giving the raw pop 13M/60M for sake of comparison. Ontario's daily rate of cases is higher than Italy now, and they're quite smaller by pop. (You know what I mean, 9000 deaths in India is not the same as 9000 deaths in Wyoming.) And I wanted to quote the info at bottom of article, as Dave Inge had reported on previous page 1/4 US covid deaths were in care homes, while Ontario (and much of Canada) it's been more like 4/5.

(edited, I had a few words in the wrong place about the location of US covid deaths)
   4639. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 02, 2020 at 07:49 PM (#5955013)

Since Brian's not here to point it out, allow me to note the shitstorm a week or two ago when a couple of scientists claimed to find a new strain of the virus, namely a mutation on one of the spikes.
Quickly, the Internet lit up with scientists incensed that journalists didn't know what a strain is and, worse, that every time the term is misused nature sees to it that two puppies die.
It has also been suggested, earlier than the above, that the "strain" that traveled to the US via Europe was more lethal than the one that came to the West Coast supposedly directly from China.

Carry on.
   4640. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 02, 2020 at 08:13 PM (#5955021)
4637 - And mast night he called out the Armed Forces on American citizens to have a path cleared so thatt he might blaspheme God in front of an Episcopal church, a denomination of which he is not a member.
   4641. Ron J Posted: June 02, 2020 at 08:25 PM (#5955024)
#4638 and most of the remaining cases are happening at meat packing plants or the oil sands.
   4642. Cleveland (need new name) fan Posted: June 02, 2020 at 08:34 PM (#5955026)
This can absolutely happen in certain scenarios -- take a population of an organism, divide it in two, put both halves in separate deserts, and if they survive both populations wille eventually develop traits that lead them to need less water.


While it is true that both organism will evolve to use less water, they won't evolve in the same way. They will become two separate species. They will not remain the same species with independent evolution of the new traits.

Since Brian's not here to point it out, allow me to note the shitstorm a week or two ago when a couple of scientists claimed to find a new strain of the virus, namely a mutation on one of the spikes.


It is certainly possible that mutated strains will/have appear. Transmissibility of the new strain (and luck) will determine if it dies out, takes over, or co-exists with the current strain. Lethality of the new strain will likely be independent of the transmissibility because this virus already has a long transfer period when the host isn't showing any signs of the virus. There is no real evolutionary pressure the evolve to a less lethal version which for example would happen if the virus was only transmitted by people showing symptoms and it kills quickly once symptoms appear. So by chance a new strain may be less lethal, but no guarantees.
   4643. baxter Posted: June 02, 2020 at 08:45 PM (#5955028)
For consideration:

Coronavirus May Be a Blood Vessel Disease, Which Explains Everything
Many of the infection’s bizarre symptoms have one thing in common
Dana G Smith

Link to website Elemental:
https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2

   4644. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 02, 2020 at 09:28 PM (#5955030)
There is no real evolutionary pressure the evolve to a less lethal version which for example would happen if the virus was only transmitted by people showing symptoms and it kills quickly once symptoms appear. So by chance a new strain may be less lethal, but no guarantees.


By and large the same people arguing that there is a natural evolution of the virus to lesser lethality are the ones saying that it is has always been very widespread with only a very small percentage of cases identified.

If a large number of people are already getting and transmitting the virus with no ill effects, it makes you wonder where this environmental pressure is supposed to have come from.
   4645. PreservedFish Posted: June 02, 2020 at 10:26 PM (#5955034)
We're all talking out of our butts on this subject. In 1 month, and certainly in 2 months, we'll have a damn good idea about whether or not the re-openings have ushered in a second wave. Even then, though, we'll be basically unable to interpret the data, because there are so many unknowns. It's absolutely plausible that the virus itself isn't as powerful as it was months ago. That one or more BTF members have offered glib explanations doesn't change that. It's also absolutely plausible that it's just as strong as ever, and ready to roar back as soon as it's given the chance, that indeed it will become obvious in the next week or two that it has done exactly that. We don't know.
   4646. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 02, 2020 at 11:30 PM (#5955043)
We're all talking out of our butts on this subject. In 1 month, and certainly in 2 months, we'll have a damn good idea about whether or not the re-openings have ushered in a second wave. Even then, though, we'll be basically unable to interpret the data, because there are so many unknowns. It's absolutely plausible that the virus itself isn't as powerful as it was months ago. That one or more BTF members have offered glib explanations doesn't change that. It's also absolutely plausible that it's just as strong as ever, and ready to roar back as soon as it's given the chance, that indeed it will become obvious in the next week or two that it has done exactly that. We don't know.

Not sure we're going to get that type of info yet. I mean, which week was the reopening event that was going to cause the virus to start spreading exponentially? (Nationwide Google Mobility Data; change in activity vs. baseline):

Dates   Retail*  Parks Transit Workplaces
2
/15-3/11 6.6  16.7  2.1  0.8 
3
/12-3/22 (18.32.6  (24.5) (20.0)
3/23-4/27 (42.3) (14.3) (49.9) (45.5)
4/27-5/(33.96.4  (43.4) (41.9)
5/4-5/10 (29.67.1  (41.0) (39.0)
5/11-5/17 (28.916.0  (40.0) (37.3)
5/18-5/24 (24.328.9  (36.7) (35.6)

Includes bars and restaurants


And of the people who have started going to those establishments again, many of them are wearing masks and practicing social distancing.

Maybe I am reading too much into this data, but we still look a lot more like a nation on lockdown than one that has opened up.
   4647. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 03, 2020 at 12:10 AM (#5955044)
Dave's numbers, aligned but not enlarged

Dates      Retail*  Parks  Transit Workplaces
2
/15-3/11    6.6    16.7      2.1      0.8 
3
/12-3/22  (18.3)    2.6    (24.5)   (20.0)
3/23-4/27  (42.3)  (14.3)   (49.9)   (45.5)
4/27-5/3   (33.9)    6.4    (43.4)   (41.9)
5/4-5/10   (29.6)    7.1    (41.0)   (39.0)
5/11-5/17  (28.9)   16.0    (40.0)   (37.3)
5/18-5/24  (24.3)   28.9    (36.7)   (35.6

   4648. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 03, 2020 at 01:32 AM (#5955045)
Thanks Mr. Mayor.
   4649. BrianBrianson Posted: June 03, 2020 at 02:36 AM (#5955047)
Even in cities, Ontario ain't Italy. Far less reliance on public transit, less crowded living conditions ... sure, it ain't like the people of Ontario are spread evenly from Moose Factory to ... damn, I used to know a woman who was from two hours south of Kenora, and her home town would work really well here, but I forget the name. F' it, it ain't like Ontarians are spread evenly from Cornwall to Kenora.

The ~1/4 of American deaths being in nursing homes is a bit odd and I am prone to wondering how much it reflects a cultural thing. In Europe the numbers I've seen for this have been 40~50%; could it be a reflection of who ends up in nursing homes, or how deaths are matched to locations?
   4650. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 03, 2020 at 03:16 AM (#5955048)
If you read the article I posted yesterday, it notes that the 1/4 was just nursing homes and did not include assisted living facilities, and the data was not complete. A separate WSJ analysis of state-by-state data shows closer to 40% of deaths being in nursing homes or assisted living facilities. And even that data is incomplete so the actual number is likely a bit higher.
   4651. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: June 03, 2020 at 03:24 AM (#5955049)
A study of blood donors in the Netherlands has found that around 5.5% of them have developed antibodies against the new coronavirus, blood donation firm Sanquin said today. The study, conducted among 7,000 donors between May 10 and 20, gives an indication of what percentage of the Dutch population may have already had the disease. A similar study in April showed antibodies in 3% of Dutch blood donors.


Guardian liveblog again. The Netherlands is a very densely populated country that's been hit pretty hard, so the above stats are concerning in terms of the possible impact of a second wave in late summer or afterwards.
   4652. Ron J Posted: June 03, 2020 at 07:14 AM (#5955051)
Tegnell admits too many have died


Anders Tegnell defends strategy but says there is ‘potential for improvement’
   4653. PreservedFish Posted: June 03, 2020 at 07:16 AM (#5955052)
Maybe I am reading too much into this data, but we still look a lot more like a nation on lockdown than one that has opened up.


Thanks. I hadn't seen those precise numbers. You're right.
   4654. Lassus Posted: June 03, 2020 at 07:27 AM (#5955053)
Oneida County COIVD-19 Dashboard

If you click on 3-day rolling average of positive tests, we've been steadily above April's numbers for quite awhile. And we're opening up as well. People are simply caring less.
   4655. . Posted: June 03, 2020 at 07:49 AM (#5955055)
Time series of positive tests is meaningless data.
   4656. Tony S Posted: June 03, 2020 at 08:13 AM (#5955056)
If you click on 3-day rolling average of positive tests, we've been steadily above April's numbers for quite awhile. And we're opening up as well. People are simply caring less.


It's the social equivalent of prematurely laying off the antibiotics because you're feeling better.
   4657. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: June 03, 2020 at 08:18 AM (#5955057)
If you click on 3-day rolling average of positive tests, we've been steadily above April's numbers for quite awhile. And we're opening up as well. People are simply caring less.


But the % is going down, if I read that right? So increased positive tests could be a result of a higher number of total tests (or better tests which more accurately detect lower viral load, I guess).

Anders Tegnell defends strategy but says there is ‘potential for improvement’


From the article, he says, “If we were to encounter the same disease again knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would settle on doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,” - to me, given that the majority of Western Europe chose a different strategy than Sweden with pretty much the same information available, he skirts around the possibility that a better course of action should have been selected at the time even without that increased understanding.

Which is understandable - he's closely associated with the strategy chosen, and it doesn't sound like Swedish public opinion has rounded on him yet. The fact that 'Sweden’s death rate per capita was the highest in the world over the seven days to 2 June', according to the article, does make a fairly good case that they could have done better, particularly with Sweden's in-built advantages.
   4658. . Posted: June 03, 2020 at 08:31 AM (#5955058)
If the thing has mutated to a less damaging form, which it appears to have done, Sweden can certainly be second-guessed for not contemplating that in their original calculus as a possibility.
   4659. Ron J Posted: June 03, 2020 at 08:33 AM (#5955059)
Also from the Guardian:

Major study under review

The intro:

Governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company Surgisphere, whose employees appear to include a sci-fi writer and adult content model, provided database behind Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine hydroxychloroquine studies


There may be adequate explanations but right now it really doesn't look good.
   4660. . Posted: June 03, 2020 at 08:37 AM (#5955060)
Hydroxy-whatever, an FDA-approved drug in common use for years and years, becoming known as "the drug touted by Trump" and all the science being corrupted in an effort to "prove Trump wrong" is a national and international embarrassment. There might be no better single emblem of our implacable divisions than this episode.

This election season is shaping up to be an absolute disaster, with very little chance of a free and fair election and an essentially zero chance that the election will be perceived as free and fair. There might be enough institutional strength to survive, but this could be it.
   4661. Ron J Posted: June 03, 2020 at 08:57 AM (#5955064)
#4656 Pretty much what the vibe I'm getting. Doesn't help that the local stats are ... well they aren't terrible but they also aren't where you'd want to be when contemplating more ambitious reopening.
   4662. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: June 03, 2020 at 09:06 AM (#5955065)
Elsewhere, the UK has officially passed 50,000 deaths, though in excess death terms the actual number is expected to be ten thousand or more greater.

Today the UK Government announced quarantining for all arrivals into the country. But it's a weird approach: 14 days, but at a place nominated by the traveler, and with only cursory checks and a relatively small fine to apply. The timing and the rigour of this - given that almost every other country has a healthier population than the UK in these terms - seems miscalculated. Other countries, earlier in the pandemic, forced arrivals to go to specific hotels where they could be actively monitored.

Meanwhile, Germany has relaxed travel restrictions for people coming in from the rest of Europe, though it has kept 'warnings' in place for some of the countries with the worst ongoing infection rates. Like the UK.
   4663. Biscuit_pants Posted: June 03, 2020 at 09:24 AM (#5955066)
becoming known as "the drug touted by Trump" and all the science being corrupted in an effort to "prove Trump wrong" is a national and international embarrassment. There might be no better single emblem of our implacable divisions than this episode.


I sincerely hope this stuff was not politically motivated. If the drug does end up having benefits and was stopped because of this group then that is the worse part of science and politics.

While I hope it IS a viable option for Covid-19, it is more likely this database exaggerated results and did not make them up (hoping they not made up) and the drug will still not be considered an option.

I see stuff like this all the time though (again assuming not made up), so many studies or even experts that get quoted are not checked out for accuracy if it already agrees with what the prevailing opinion is at the time. I have dug through lots of claims that are said to have been validated only to come up empty after everyone assumed it was validated.

As BrianBrianson has been saying don't take the results of a single study at face value. I would add don't take multiple studies at face value if they all have a single underlying assumption that has not been validated.
   4664. Biscuit_pants Posted: June 03, 2020 at 09:27 AM (#5955067)
14 days, but at a place nominated by the traveler
Is Buckingham Palace on the list of approved sites? I would be ok staying 14 days there, even longer if they insist.
   4665. Lassus Posted: June 03, 2020 at 10:08 AM (#5955071)
Hydroxy-whatever, an FDA-approved drug in common use for years and years, becoming known as "the drug touted by Trump" and all the science being corrupted in an effort to "prove Trump wrong" is a national and international embarrassment. There might be no better single emblem of our implacable divisions than this episode.

Thanks, Dr. Nick!


Time series of positive tests is meaningless data.

So what's meaningful data, on the county level?
   4666. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 03, 2020 at 10:21 AM (#5955073)
Rolling average of positive test rate has been pretty flat the last few days. Outside of NY/NJ/MA/CT the 7-day rolling average has been flat the last 2 weeks, and has been rising (very slowly) the last few days.
   4667. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 03, 2020 at 10:26 AM (#5955076)
Tegnell is responding to the fact that ICU bed usage and coronavirus care sessions are barely dropping the last couple weeks, and projected deaths for the last two weeks are pretty much flat.
   4668. Sunday silence Posted: June 03, 2020 at 10:53 AM (#5955078)
A lot of assumptions have been made about if/when we'll get a vaccine. Well here's a story that might mean its sooner than you think:

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-06-02-20-intl/h_decaa1c10fc7e884fd9f60dfa0a41548
   4669. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: June 03, 2020 at 11:05 AM (#5955080)
So they're making the vaccine in large quantities before we even know if it works. I have concerns that will lead to pressure to ensure it is approved, regardless of efficacy.
   4670. Biscuit_pants Posted: June 03, 2020 at 11:15 AM (#5955084)
So they're making the vaccine in large quantities before we even know if it works. I have concerns that will lead to pressure to ensure it is approved, regardless of efficacy.


That happens a lot for anticipated blockbuster drugs, it is just usually you don't know the immediate demand and don't want to be stuck with an expiring inventory. Doing it before a single phase III trial is a bit fast and since it has already gone a bit political I guess I see your point though.

Edit: To be fair to them, if phase II is going extremely well I can see the optimism before a phase III.
   4671. Ron J Posted: June 03, 2020 at 11:19 AM (#5955086)
#4669 Or before we know it's safe. Remember the 1976 vaccination program that inflicted Guillain-Barré syndrome.
   4672. . Posted: June 03, 2020 at 11:30 AM (#5955088)
So what's meaningful data, on the county level?


Hospitalizations and deaths.
   4673. . Posted: June 03, 2020 at 11:33 AM (#5955090)
The vaccine is going to be yet another point of political division. There are going to be a bunch of holdouts and then the Twitter mobs will get involved and all the rest will follow. And then quite possibly a round of "Well, we can't open up more even though we have a vaccine because not enough people have gotten vaccinated."

This is what happens when everything in society is politicized.

This is what Decline looks like. This is a dictionary-picture caliber version of what Decline looks like. Improvement starts with the end of Twitter, the end of Facebook, the end of around-the-clock political outrage theater. I have no idea how those things happen. It's probably impossible.
   4674. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 03, 2020 at 11:36 AM (#5955091)

Fauci has consistently said we'd start making the vaccine (and potentially more than one different vaccine) before we knew whether they would work, so that whichever one(s) did work could be rolled out as quickly as possible after that. He said this in his Senate testimony and acknowledged that there was financial risk in doing so, and nobody raised any concerns that I recall.
   4675. Biscuit_pants Posted: June 03, 2020 at 11:41 AM (#5955094)
and potentially more than one different vaccine


It is going to be so hard to choose from all the different flavors. I'll probably think about it for way to long and end up going with vanilla.
   4676. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: June 03, 2020 at 11:44 AM (#5955095)
It is going to be so hard to choose from all the different flavors. I'll probably think about it for way to long and end up going with vanilla.


We’ve certainly had enough rocky road!
   4677. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 03, 2020 at 11:44 AM (#5955097)
On a relative basis (for the purposes of determining trends), number of new cases in combination with the rate testing positive should be a good indicator of a locality's recent trajectory. It's less useful as a comparison across localities, and close to useless in determining the absolute magnitude of current infections.
   4678. . Posted: June 03, 2020 at 11:47 AM (#5955098)
Fauci has consistently said we'd start making the vaccine (and potentially more than one different vaccine) before we knew whether they would work, so that whichever one(s) did work could be rolled out as quickly as possible after that. He said this in his Senate testimony and acknowledged that there was financial risk in doing so, and nobody raised any concerns that I recall.


Is the aim here to administer a vaccine that might not even work? That seems like an ... odd public health idea.

The vaccine thing has "shitstorm" written all over it. The civic life of the country is completely broken.
   4679. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 03, 2020 at 11:48 AM (#5955099)

The hydroxychloroquine trial at the VA hospitals did not involve Surgisphere, right? That's where we tested the drug on a bunch of veterans and those who took the drug ended up dying in higher numbers.
   4680. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 03, 2020 at 11:57 AM (#5955102)
Is the aim here to administer a vaccine that might not even work? That seems like an ... odd public health idea.

The vaccine thing has "shitstorm" written all over it. The civic life of the country is completely broken.


???

The aim is to produce a vaccine that works as confirmed by clinical trials and is approved by the FDA, and have it ready to be rolled out upon approval rather than have to wait to ramp up production after approval. The money “wasted” on an unsuccessful vaccine that never gets used is trivial compared to the economic loss of being unable to more fully return to normal economic activity for an extra 6 months or however long it takes to ramp up production. Not to mention the lives that could be saved from having a vaccine available earlier.
   4681. Ron J Posted: June 03, 2020 at 11:58 AM (#5955103)
#4679 Don't think they were involved in the Brazilian study that bailed early after a number of deaths either.

Still concerning. Actually doubly so. How do you get something published in Lancet if there's no openness about methodology or your database?

Yeah, I get that corners can be cut on time sensitive topics. Still the potential for abuse is obvious.
   4682. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: June 03, 2020 at 12:02 PM (#5955104)
This election season is shaping up to be an absolute disaster, with very little chance of a free and fair election and an essentially zero chance that the election will be perceived as free and fair.

It's funny how everybody I talk to, left or right, are absolutely certain that the election is being rigged by the other side. Righties complain about phony ballots, lefties squawk about voter suppression. (And, of course, Russians, Russians, Russians...!) Their side would never stoop so low, of course...unless they have to.

No matter who wins, half the country will despise him, and will never believe that he was elected legitimately. Scary.
   4683. Howie Menckel Posted: June 03, 2020 at 12:13 PM (#5955105)
Dow is up another 400+ points today, has now cleared the 26,000 mark.

up 43 percent off its late-March lows.
   4684. Biscuit_pants Posted: June 03, 2020 at 12:29 PM (#5955107)
Don't think they were involved in the Brazilian study that bailed early after a number of deaths either.


Having been a part of studies in which there was a high mortality rate (late stage cancers) a couple of sites closing because of too many deaths does not always mean the drug doesn't work. It does mean that it is not a "miracle" drug most likely but it could just mean that it is effective but only marginally so.

Also, this appears to be where data is stored and not necessarily the collecting of it. If the VA or Brazilian study got loaded into this database those pieces of data could be used in papers.
   4685. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 03, 2020 at 12:38 PM (#5955109)

Back to Tegnell for a second:

In an interview with the Dagens Nyheter daily, Tegnell subsequently said he still believed “the basic strategy has worked well. I do not see what we would have done completely differently … Based on the knowledge we had then, we feel we made the appropriate decisions.”


I can't fathom this statement. Had Sweden set up an information embargo against Denmark, Germany, and Norway?
   4686. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 03, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5955116)
Dow is up another 400+ points today, has now cleared the 26,000 mark. up 43 percent off its late-March lows.
Interesting, but haven’t we been assured that it only matters when the stock market goes down?
   4687. Ron J Posted: June 03, 2020 at 12:58 PM (#5955118)
#4685 I believe Tegnell's argument has been that the real failure in Sweden is with the Senior homes and that this is (mostly) unrelated to the more controversial policies like allowing shops to stay open.
   4688. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 03, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5955120)
Governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company Surgisphere, whose employees appear to include a sci-fi writer and adult content model, provided database behind Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine hydroxychloroquine studies There may be adequate explanations but right now it really doesn't look good.
Reportedly, their data doesn’t match any official data, and those releasing data haven’t had any contact or even heard of Surgisphere. I suppose I can [barely] fathom people doing fake science for political or financial reasons, but how does that get past The Lancet? Some detailed explanations seem appropriate, and perhaps some heads should roll.
   4689. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: June 03, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5955121)
Interesting, but haven’t we been assured that it only matters when the stock market goes down?


Depends on the capital letter in parenthesis after the president's name. (It also works this way for the amount of homelessness and a bunch of other things.)
   4690. bobm Posted: June 03, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5955126)
Fauci has consistently said we'd start making the vaccine (and potentially more than one different vaccine) before we knew whether they would work, so that whichever one(s) did work could be rolled out as quickly as possible after that. He said this in his Senate testimony and acknowledged that there was financial risk in doing so, and nobody raised any concerns that I recall.

Financial risk? $1.2 billion is walking-around money at this point for the Oxford vaccine. (a viral vector based on a weakened version of the common cold containing the genetic material of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.) I know it is different and more predictable, but at smaller stakes we work ahead based on predictions of the new flu vaccine strains each year.

NY Times: $1.2 Billion From U.S. to Drugmaker to Pursue Coronavirus Vaccine

nytimes.com
$1.2 Billion From U.S. to Drugmaker to Pursue Coronavirus Vaccine
The Trump administration announced a grant to AstraZeneca, which has licensed a potential vaccine that is in trials by Oxford University.

By David D. Kirkpatrick
May 21, 2020


There is no proven treatment or vaccine against the virus, and infectious-disease experts also warn that many vaccine candidates take years to perfect. Some fail or cause such severe side effects that human trials are halted.

But even before any are approved, governments and other organizations like the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation are spending millions of dollars to prepare for the manufacturing of several potential vaccines to make them broadly available as soon as possible.

In a separate statement, AstraZeneca said it had reached agreements with several governments and other organizations to produce at least 400 million doses, had “secured manufacturing capacity for one billion doses,” and will begin its first deliveries in September.

AstraZeneca said it was also discussing deals for simultaneous production by other companies, including the giant Serum Institute of India, a major supplier of vaccines to the developing world.

The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority at H.H.S. is distributing billions of dollars to companies to develop vaccines, including the latest funding to AstraZeneca. The authority, known as Barda, has already agreed to provide up to $483 million to the biotech company Moderna and $500 million to Johnson & Johnson for their separate vaccine efforts. It has also agreed to provide $30 million to a coronavirus vaccine effort by the French company Sanofi, building on a larger contract announced last December for making flu inoculations. [...]
   4691. Howie Menckel Posted: June 03, 2020 at 01:25 PM (#5955127)
looks like barbershops and hair salons can reopen in NJ at limited capacity on June 22.

I'm picturing logging in to check my waiting time.

instead of "15 minutes" it will probably be more like "30 DAYS."

but it's a start.

outdoor dining allowed as of June 15. I have a good outdoor place 2 minutes away, and likely will check it out.
   4692. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 03, 2020 at 01:28 PM (#5955129)
I would be cautious about using the Dutch information as blood donors may not be a representative sample of the population. If it was representative, it would imply an IFR of 0.6% based on 5,977 confirmed COvID deaths in the Netherlands. Actual IFR would be higher as their death total only includes those who have tested positive, I believe. Not sure if it includes nursing homes — there is a relatively high proportion of 85+ deaths if they don’t.
   4693. . Posted: June 03, 2020 at 01:30 PM (#5955131)
The aim is to produce a vaccine that works as confirmed by clinical trials and is approved by the FDA, and have it ready to be rolled out upon approval rather than have to wait to ramp up production after approval. The money “wasted” on an unsuccessful vaccine that never gets used is trivial compared to the economic loss of being unable to more fully return to normal economic activity for an extra 6 months or however long it takes to ramp up production. Not to mention the lives that could be saved from having a vaccine available earlier.


Got it. Makes sense.
   4694. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: June 03, 2020 at 01:37 PM (#5955132)

The aim is to produce a vaccine that works as confirmed by clinical trials and is approved by the FDA,


That's the aim, I agree. The more you short-circuit the process the greater the chance of something bad happening. Most people seem willing to take the risk, but there is a risk.
   4695. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 03, 2020 at 01:51 PM (#5955136)
According to FT, the Netherlands has undercounted deaths by as large a fraction as any developed nation. Excess deaths are now estimated at over 10000.
   4696. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 03, 2020 at 02:10 PM (#5955138)
Along the same lines, Sweden will officially pass France today on deaths per million, but likely passed them earlier due to undercounting. Sweden is now probably pulling up to the Netherlands, and has maybe passed them as well. That leaves only the UK, Spain, Italy, and Belgium. Not necessarily in that order.

Then there is potentially Iran, Ecuador, Peru, Brazil, and who knows maybe some others.
   4697. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: June 03, 2020 at 02:49 PM (#5955142)
Peru may need some exceptional treatment in this kind of counting because they have an outbreak of dengue fever ongoing, I seem to recall. So their excess deaths measures would be muddied.
   4698. Sunday silence Posted: June 03, 2020 at 03:36 PM (#5955145)

It would if there were a direct relationship between severity of the disease and the degree to which it is shed by patients. But I don't think that's been established, nor should it be assumed...


Well I think this is an interesting pt. THe last I recall, its been a few weeks, was that it was more dangerous in the expiration form (aerosol) rather than in the droplet form from people sneezing and coughing. Maybe Im forgetting but that's one story I recall.

OK now its further interesting. If the virus is being rewarded by greater reproduction rates through that stage (respiration from asymptomatic carriers) then that could explain how the virus might mutate into less lethal strain. Right? A less lethal strain mutates, it gets passed on in great numbers through the respiration path, this happens a lot for asymptomatic carriers. It reproduces further crowding out the more deadly strain. Now its mutated into something more transmissable but less lethal

I fully understand that its way to early to put any credence into what the Italian guy was saying about this thing being over. And my interpretation might be flawed. But this is interesting no?
   4699. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 03, 2020 at 04:08 PM (#5955153)
Sure, if it’s more transmissible when people are less symptomatic, then it could evolve to induce fewer symptoms. Or it could evolve to be more transmissible in symptomatic people. Or it could not evolve at all, or it could evolve in unanticipated ways. I don’t know enough to say which of these would be more likely.
   4700. . Posted: June 03, 2020 at 04:10 PM (#5955155)
The asymptomatic nature of the thing was always strange and surprising, so it wouldn't be any great shock if it mutated and evolved in strange and surprising ways.
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