Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 6521 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Page 64 of 66 pages ‹ First  < 62 63 64 65 66 > 
   6301. PreservedFish Posted: June 28, 2020 at 01:05 PM (#5959981)
flip
   6302. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 28, 2020 at 01:05 PM (#5959982)
Ron DeSantis is STILL waiting for his apology.

The Florida coronavirus death rate is 157.9 per 1M, less than 10% of that of New York (1,616.5). Both states had 26 deaths new deaths in their latest report; New Jersey had 34. Those who have spent the last 3 months faulting Florida while giving New York a pass have shred their own credibility.


Florida recorded 9,585 new cases yesterday, while New York recorded 703 on Friday, the latest number available. For those same dates, Florida had 24 deaths, while New York had 16.

More to the point, Florida's new cases graph shows a steep incline, tripling in the last five days with new records being set daily, while New York's have been steadily declining since peaking over 2 months ago.

The critical mistake was made when Trump gave passengers arriving from Europe a three day grace period before halting air travel from that continent. That set off a panic rush over the next 72 hours that resulted in the explosion of cases in New York, and to a lesser extent in other major destination cities. Florida largely escaped that initial hit largely due to the accident of geography, but we're now seeing the contrast between states that accepted lockdowns and mask requirements vs. states that pretended that everything was somehow going to magically turn out okay, and relied on purely voluntary measures.

I doubt if De Santis is likely to be getting many apologies soon, certainly not from Floridians who are seeing skyrocketing rates of infection thanks to his unbelievably stupid rush to re-open.
   6303. PreservedFish Posted: June 28, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5959983)
“This is not a pandemic,” Hotze said. “If this was a pandemic, why didn’t all of us get the virus?”


Pan is Greek for "all." Checkmate, uneducated libtards.
   6304. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 28, 2020 at 01:11 PM (#5959984)
How does Hotze keep his license?

I doubt if De Santis is likely to be getting many apologies soon, certainly not from Floridians who are seeing skyrocketing rates of infection thanks to his unbelievably stupid rush to re-open.


Has he done the Greg Abbott, "Gee, if only someone had told me this would happen" routine yet?
   6305. Hot Wheeling American Posted: June 28, 2020 at 01:14 PM (#5959986)
For all my Maine freaks in the house:

@NotThatHilary:
Wharf Street last night, just in case you were wondering where the next Maine COVID outbreak was gonna come from
   6306. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: June 28, 2020 at 01:29 PM (#5959990)
Re 6303: Heck, Greece has less than 200 COVID deaths so far. (Here in NY, in April, we were averaging that about every six hours...)
   6307. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 28, 2020 at 01:39 PM (#5959993)

6305 - Not good, but not Liverpool
   6308. Kiko Sakata Posted: June 28, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5959994)
For all my Maine freaks in the house:


####### it!
   6309. Kiko Sakata Posted: June 28, 2020 at 02:03 PM (#5959995)
According to this source, Palm Beach County, Florida is at 100% capacity in its ICUs. The same source says that the same is true for the entire state of Arizona.
   6310. PreservedFish Posted: June 28, 2020 at 02:16 PM (#5960001)
I actually noped out of the hardware store yesterday because it was the busiest place I've been since mid-March.
   6311. base ball chick Posted: June 28, 2020 at 02:18 PM (#5960003)
kiko

not sure how good that source is because it says that dallas county texas has only 5% of ICU beds occupied and i KNOW that is dead wrong. here in yewstin, we about full up
   6312. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 28, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5960014)
not sure how good that source is because it says that dallas county texas has only 5% of ICU beds occupied and i KNOW that is dead wrong. here in yewstin, we about full up


Yep, but we're pushing it by creating beds on the fly.
   6313. Random Transaction Generator Posted: June 28, 2020 at 03:30 PM (#5960017)
“This is not a pandemic,” Hotze said. “If this was a pandemic, why didn’t all of us get the virus?”


If I know my history, there will be an article in the newspaper before the end of July about him coming down with it (and either dying or going to the hospital)....
   6314. Ron J Posted: June 28, 2020 at 04:01 PM (#5960020)
#6313 Well the guy organizing the Maryland protest group has tested positive. He's feeling pretty lousy but not ICU bad.
   6315. Snowboy Posted: June 28, 2020 at 04:04 PM (#5960021)
On the last page, there was some talk about testing. I went for a covid test this morning, they did a throat swab.

Signed up on the provincial health website. Submitted a self-assessment survey about my health, but even if you answer "no" to all of the questions about your symptoms, they still let your book an appointment. A screen opened with all of the available time slots, every half hour, some slots were ghosted they must have been already full. Picked a time, they emailed me a confirmation.*

Testing was done at a health diagnostic center that years ago was a children's hospital. We pulled into a garage that could hold four vehicles, I assume it was formerly the ambulance bay. We lined up in our vehicles and never got out of them, so there was built-in social distancing. Nurses with gown/mask/faceshield came around and examined id. They went inside, emerged with a swab vile that had your info already on the label, you rolled down window, tilted your head back, said "ahhhhhh" and then they told me to self-isolate if developed symptoms, go to hospital if it ever got severe, and they'd call me in a few days.

I don't have any symptoms, haven't had any since I was slightly ill in January.
1) Thought I'd get tested for my own satisfaction. I've been in isolation since March, but returned to the workplace (airport) two weeks ago.
2) Govn't now says anyone can get tested here, so why not? Cost me nothing but an hour of my time, there and back. Helps them meet their # goals.
3) Selfishly, and for my employment, I hope it comes back negative, and that flight traffic bounces back (with full mask-wearing compliance.) I think it also works statistically: if they only test people who are sick, numbers will show a higher infection rate. To get a more representative sample of society, people with no symptoms should also be tested. (As discussed, I could still be positive and either pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic.)
4) I'll get an antibody/blood/serology test whenever they're available. I've already downloaded the contact tracing app for phone. I would like to know if I'm sick or have been sick, come into contact with someone who's sick, and I've got nothing to hide.

* I think there was something in the fine print about "no symptoms" clients could be bumped if there was an outbreak/emergency need to test people who had symptoms, or were healthcare/shelter workers, first responders, etc. Nurse asked me if I had any symptoms, I said no, then she asked if I was a health care worker, I said no. She paused, so I inserted "but I work in the airport terminal with passengers and their baggage all day" and she nodded me ahead.
   6316. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 28, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5960022)
I doubt if DeSantis is likely to be getting many apologies soon, certainly not from Floridians who are seeing skyrocketing rates of infection thanks to his unbelievably stupid rush to re-open.

Has he done the Greg Abbott, "Gee, if only someone had told me this would happen" routine yet?


I guess Trump never told Abbott or DeSantis that viruses could be so complicated.
   6317. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: June 29, 2020 at 07:26 AM (#5960089)
these memoirs also suggest that Trump doesn’t trust some members of his administration because he simply doesn’t understand them. Their behavior springs from a commitment to principles he not only doesn’t possess but can’t. Some of these principles have to do with morality, which Trump lacks, but others require a long-term or big-picture perspective of which he also seems incapable. According to Bolton, Trump “believed he could run the Executive Branch and establish national-security policies on instinct, relying on personal relationships with foreign leaders.” Everything is personal and therefore ephemeral. Even without the ####-stirring that Trump regularly engaged in with his staff, his fundamental rudderlessness can only have left them to their own devices and at cross-purposes with one another.
i'm sure this dynamic had no impact on murica's deathly pandemic response.
   6318. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 29, 2020 at 08:10 AM (#5960090)
There's sadly a fairly large contingent of people who think any type of social restriction is unnecessary and uncalled for, because the virus just naturally burns itself out after infecting (say) 10-15% of people at a mortality rate of (say) 0.2%.

Some news from the real world: the deaths from Iran's second wave have gradually been growing, and they just had their highest recorded deaths in a day ever. I'm actually a bit skeptical (because it seems likely they were undercounting by an even larger factor the first time around), but regardless it's clear the virus didn't just burn through Iran and go away.
   6319. Swoboda is freedom Posted: June 29, 2020 at 08:36 AM (#5960095)
#6313 Well the guy organizing the Maryland protest group has tested positive. He's feeling pretty lousy but not ICU bad.


The worst part of the story is he is refusing to help contact tracers. So he may have infected others, but won't do anything. Also, the dude has diabetes and has had several strokes. He is the walking billboard of someone who should be more careful.
   6320. BrianBrianson Posted: June 29, 2020 at 09:40 AM (#5960101)
So, I was also pretty skeptical of Iran's numbers at first, but given what we've learned, I think it makes sense to at least be more open to the idea they weren't any worse than anyone else (i.e., maybe they were undercounting by the same ~50% that everyone was in February/March). Notably, only 3.3% of Iran's population is over 65, while the US is abut 13%, and in France we're almost at 20%. So, given what we've learned about who lives and who dies, their intrinsic case fatality rate may be significantly lower.

Or not. But it's worth thinking about;
   6321. Tony S Posted: June 29, 2020 at 09:50 AM (#5960105)
Europe is partially reopening its borders to visitors from selected countries. The US is not one of them.

The full list of approved places provided to the New York Times on Friday includes Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, Morocco, New Zealand, Rwanda, Serbia, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia, Uruguay, Andorra, San Marino, Monaco, and the Vatican.


Rwanda.

One of the most impoverished countries in the world has done a better job of controlling the pandemic than the US.

   6322. Random Transaction Generator Posted: June 29, 2020 at 10:02 AM (#5960110)
4) I'll get an antibody/blood/serology test whenever they're available. I've already downloaded the contact tracing app for phone. I would like to know if I'm sick or have been sick, come into contact with someone who's sick, and I've got nothing to hide.


It seems that if you donate blood to the Red Cross, they will do the antibody test as well. I'm considering donating blood now just for that purpose.
I used to be a regular blood donor a LONG time ago, but I got mono back in 2000 and that meant I couldn't donate for a while. I got out of the habit and never went back, and I'm hoping I'm allowed to donate again.
   6323. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 29, 2020 at 10:25 AM (#5960115)
Spain, Italy, and the UK had 500-600 reported deaths per million after two months of deaths. Belgium had around 800 per million, but probably so did Spain, Italy and the UK. Iran reported about 80 per million. To be 50% undercounting, there'd have to have been 1/6 to 1/7 the number of deaths in Iran than those other places. Even with a big demographic difference that doesn't seem particularly likely.

Also, population in Iran over 65 has been rapidly increasing and was probably 6.5% in 2020.
   6324. Random Transaction Generator Posted: June 29, 2020 at 10:25 AM (#5960116)
Re: 6322

I'm mistaken. Canada Blood Services won't notify the individual donors about their antibody results, and are simply using them (anonymized) as part of a larger Canada-wide government study.
   6325. BrianBrianson Posted: June 29, 2020 at 10:44 AM (#5960121)
I grabbed 65 because the data was easy to grab to illustrate the point. In both Italy and Austria, the median age of people who died was around 80. 3.6% of the Italian population is over 80, Iran is around 0.5%

Like ... Okay, maybe it's better to do a proper model, but OOMing it, it doesn't seem totally out of the question. 6-7% of Iran is 65+, that's only ~30% of Italy's fraction - so we're halfway to a 1/6 factor. The difference gets bigger towards older ages, so that factor probably is an underestimate.

I get the instinct not to totally trust numbers from Iran. I didn't at all, back on the Ides of March. And, I'm not definitely saying you should. But ... they don't look obviously wrong, when you consider what we now know. So I definitely think it's worth reconsidering whether they're really bunk, or actually about what you'd expect.
   6326. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 29, 2020 at 11:16 AM (#5960133)
It would be very surprising if true, considering what we know about Iran's regime and the rest of the world's reporting. The baseline for Iran isn't Western Europe or the US, where maybe there is a 50% or less undercount, it's probably more like the rest of the world, where the undercount is almost certainly far higher.

There were also many other signs that pointed to an undercount, such as the official statements by public officials often not matching, even closely, the official numbers, the way the virus seemed to infect a very high number of public officials, the very low testing, and the suspicious trend of death numbers, that didn't match other countries with early outbreaks.
   6327. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 29, 2020 at 02:16 PM (#5960191)
After bars were shut down a second time during the pandemic, the Texas Bar and Nightclub Alliance announced on Sunday plans to sue the state over what they call discrimination.


So that people can do the things shown in the accompanying video.
   6328. BrianBrianson Posted: June 29, 2020 at 04:09 PM (#5960229)
Well, every was undercounting early on, so it'd be surprising if they weren't. But - okay, whether it's 30% or 50% or 70% - I'll put on my astronomer's hat and say those all sound like the same number to me.

It's still the case that if you assume things went about the same as the worst hit countries (including that everyone was undercounting by a factor of a couple-ish), you get answers that aren't totally dissimilar from what they reported. Just doing an age correction, their total deaths are in the same ballpark as the hardest hit countries, their death curve is ... better than the US, but worse than say, France. If I came into it with no priors, I don't think I'd see anything suspicious in their numbers, any more than anyone else.
   6329. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 29, 2020 at 04:32 PM (#5960232)
The shape of the Iran curves didn't match those of any other hard-hit places, like Hubei, Italy, and Spain (they shot up as quickly, but then stopped at a lower level and stayed closer to flat for much longer), and the anecdotal reports were in many ways worse. They also admittedly had hospitals full of people that were untested and thus not listed as coronavirus cases. There was and is plenty of reason to be suspicious of their early reported numbers.

Incidentally, in multiple localities across the world the excess deaths are (or at least were in April) several times, potentially 10 times higher than reported deaths, including notably in Ecuador and Indonesia. So in parts of Western Europe and the US you might be talking about 50-100% more (by excess) at the start of the pandemic, and 20-50% more now. In certain other parts of the world, it could have been as high as 1000% early and maybe only half that now. Easily an order of magnitude (which should impress even an astronomer).
   6330. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: June 29, 2020 at 08:02 PM (#5960281)
RJ Marquez @KSATRJ
JUST IN: San Antonio Mayor @Ron_Nirenberg announces another large amount of new #COVID19 cases in Bexar County with 650 cases, 10,797 total. - More than 20% of week’s lab results are positive. - 881 patients in local hospitals, 274 in intensive care. #KSATnews
   6331. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 29, 2020 at 08:26 PM (#5960283)
Texas will top 6000 again today as long as Hidalgo County reports,
   6332. Eudoxus Posted: June 29, 2020 at 10:21 PM (#5960300)
Texas did indeed top 6000. 508 new cases in Austin today. Hospitalizations up to 368 (from 80 on June 6). ICU admissions at 121 (up from 36 on June 6).

I find the recovery numbers on the local COVID dashboard confusing. They switched about three weeks ago to estimated recoveries, which I think are just calculated using some set of time since positive testing. (With longer timeframes for hospitalization cases.) Today we had 391 recoveries logged. But we've only in the last few days gone above 300+ new cases a day - two weeks ago we had 140 new cases. So I'm not sure how their recovery estimates are getting these numbers. (It's not a single-day artefact -- recovery numbers are consistently higher than new case numbers two weeks earlier. Not that the effect is enough to keep active cases stable -- we've gone from 532 active cases on June 6 to 2731 today. I think maybe the explanation is that the "new cases" they are reporting each day aren't actually all from that day -- old cases are getting logged in, and thus drop out as "recovered" sooner? But then it would be nice to get actual day-by-day numbers so that I can see more clearly what's going on.)
   6333. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: June 29, 2020 at 10:38 PM (#5960303)
Where are the ICU admission numbers for Texas? I haven't been able to find a source.
   6334. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 29, 2020 at 10:39 PM (#5960304)
It'd also be nice to know what the threshold for recovery is, as well.
   6335. PreservedFish Posted: June 29, 2020 at 10:44 PM (#5960307)
I've been ignoring the recovery numbers, ever since I noticed that some countries weren't reporting them at all. The standards, where they actually exist, must be hugely inconsistent.
   6336. Eudoxus Posted: June 29, 2020 at 11:03 PM (#5960311)
My local county's dashboard lists ICU and ventilator numbers.

I agree the recovery numbers are junk data. (I think it's really just a calendar counter for our dashboard -- no "standards" at all.) But one of the numbers I calculate is daily new cases as a percentage of active cases, rather than as a percentage of total cases to date. (We've been hitting 30%+ for that number recently.)
   6337. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 29, 2020 at 11:05 PM (#5960312)
Pat, Speaking just of TMC (the Medical center in Houston) Phase 1 beds are 95 percent occupied, 1/3 of them COIVD. For Phase 2 and 3, the numbers are 74 percent / 28 percent, and 57 percent, 20 percent.

When I looked up the definitions, the first thing I found was this article from today,
Claiming confusion, Texas Medical Center changes how it reports ICU capacity amid COVID-19

   6338. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: June 29, 2020 at 11:21 PM (#5960314)
Thanks, 6336 and 37. I wish the state would publish similar numbers for ICU admissions like they do for ICU capacity by Trauma Service Area.
   6339. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 30, 2020 at 12:01 AM (#5960318)
Me, too, Pat; but in my 25 years here I've never had the sense that TX has much of a tradition of, or interest in, transparency.
   6340. BrianBrianson Posted: June 30, 2020 at 01:14 AM (#5960322)
Easily an order of magnitude (which should impress even an astronomer).


Naw, I've done the calculation do estimate the energy density of dark matter from the Casimir effect.



Otherwise, there's obviously undercounting everywhere, but really, limiting yourself to three or so specific data points that you know shouldn't be a great fit for comparison, it's not surprising if they look a little different. (I looked at a bunch of countries to see if there was a very close fit - but eventually figured it was pointless - differently places do have a variety of curves, presumably depending on local factors). We know our priors should be that Iran should have a significantly lower case fatality rate (I wouldn't want to be too exact, but something between 1/3rd (using over 65s) and 1/6th (using over 80s), is where I'd stick your priors. And, if you think Iran is undercounting by an order of magnitude or more, they'd be probably the hardest hit country, which you should want to regress to the mean if you don't trust your data, and they'd be experiencing their second wave, so they'd be running even farther away from everyone else.
   6341. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 30, 2020 at 07:19 AM (#5960330)
The main prior here is not demographics, because many countries have had almost no one die, regardless of the country's age curve. There's also very little reason to think countries like Italy and Iran should have about the same number of cases per capita overall. That's not a particularly useful assumption.

From reports from the ground, reports from hospitals, officials, etc., Iran was significantly worse than all its neighbors, and very likely in worse shape than any other country early, including Spain and Italy. Of course, it's very hard to know for sure. If you want to talk demographics, Iran has close to 2% over 80. NYC (where 0.33% of the remaining population is now dead) is only a little more than twice that at 4%.

By "order of magnitude" I wasn't saying Iran was undercounting by a factor of 10, though I guess it's not completely impossible. If I had to guess, I'd put it more in the range of other places like Peru, which by our best estimates have been undercounting by a factor of 4 or so. That's an order of magnitude higher than the US, which is "only" undercounting by maybe 30-40%. Also, I'd be surprised if the undercounting in Iran hasn't come down since early on, as it has in most other countries once they became more capable of testing and otherwise familiar with the problem.

Even Mexico, a country with similar age demographics, which is larger, has had a serious case of the virus for a shorter time, and was never reported to be as hard hit, has reported 70% more deaths per capita than Iran, and probably few think Mexico hasn't been undercounting by a larger factor than Western Europe and the USA.
   6342. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 30, 2020 at 08:58 AM (#5960335)
I wouldn’t say that Iran is definitely undercounting by that much, but I would say that there’s simply no way to get reliable information from there. Anecdotally they were less locked down than Italy, but daily deaths stopped increasing about a week or two earlier than Italy’s did. That seems unlikely to me, and combined with satellite images that showed mass burial pits for bodies of COVID patients, it makes me skeptical of their numbers.

OTOH I was talking to a colleague whose in-laws live in Iran, and he told me they were back at work about a month ago (maybe longer) and they didn’t seem to think things were that bad. So who knows?
   6343. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 30, 2020 at 09:41 AM (#5960340)
Iran's own parliamentary report indicated they were severely undercounting. (Not by 4 times, mind you, but considering it is Iran and few other countries have gone so far officially, it is pretty striking). Based on everything we know now, frankly I's be shocked if they haven't undercounted by at least double Western Europe. I'm fairly certain its much higher, though of course we can't know (at least, not yet).
   6344. BrianBrianson Posted: June 30, 2020 at 11:27 AM (#5960354)
Some it might be language - if we assume the Iran's internal report is roughly correct, I'd call that the sort of undercounting we should expect, because it's the kind of ballpark everyone was in February/March. But you're calling it "severely undercounting". Iran would be anomalous if they weren't undercounting by some factor like that, especially in February/March.

But 10x I think stretches plausibility - that'd make Iran the highest number of deaths per capita (but behind the US and possibly Brésil in total deaths), and they're on their way up.

So, like of course we can't really be confident. If their internal numbers (that it sounds like weren't really produced for publicity?) suggest they were undercounting by ~50%, I think that's pretty plausible. I think my initial guess centered there. If total deaths are really 3x the official count, also plausible. But undercounting by 90+% is starting to get pretty implausible (numbers I've found have ~1% of Iran over 80, which is 1/7th Italy say). If Iran were really undercounting by 10x, they should be approaching herd immunity now, not entering a second wave.
   6345. Laser Man Posted: June 30, 2020 at 12:41 PM (#5960369)
The countries who were hit hardest by the first wave of coronavirus seem to be the ones with very high travel and tourism - Spain, Italy, France, USA, UK. Iran doesn't really fit in that group, so should we expect their numbers to be among the highest in the world?
   6346. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 30, 2020 at 01:23 PM (#5960377)
“We are now having 40-plus thousand new cases a day. I would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day if this does not turn around. And so I am very concerned,” Fauci said in response to questioning from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)
   6347. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 30, 2020 at 01:28 PM (#5960380)
Two new studies published in the New England Journal of Medicine describe hundreds of cases of MIS-C (Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children) as a side effect of COVID-19. One of the studies, led by Boston Children’s Hospital and based on targeted surveillance in pediatric health centers across the U.S., reported that 80 percent of the children who developed the condition required intensive care while 20 percent required mechanical ventilation; 88 percent were hospitalized and four children died. The other study, based in the state of New York, also reported that 80 percent of the patients studied were admitted to an intensive care unit, with two deaths.

The study coming from Boston Children’s concluded that, “Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children associated with SARS-CoV-2 led to serious and life-threatening illness in previously healthy children and adolescents.”
   6348. Tony S Posted: June 30, 2020 at 01:51 PM (#5960384)

Mayor -- "the condition" refers to MIS-C, not COVID, correct?
   6349. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 30, 2020 at 02:12 PM (#5960385)
Tony -- yes:

We report on 186 patients with MIS-C in 26 states. The median age was 8.3 years, 115 patients (62%) were male, 135 (73%) had previously been healthy, 131 (70%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR or antibody testing, and 164 (88%) were hospitalized after April 16, 2020. Organ-system involvement included the gastrointestinal system in 171 patients (92%), cardiovascular in 149 (80%), hematologic in 142 (76%), mucocutaneous in 137 (74%), and respiratory in 131 (70%). The median duration of hospitalization was 7 days (interquartile range, 4 to 10); 148 patients (80%) received intensive care, 37 (20%) received mechanical ventilation, 90 (48%) received vasoactive support, and 4 (2%) died. Coronary-artery aneurysms (z scores ≥2.5) were documented in 15 patients (8%), and Kawasaki’s disease–like features were documented in 74 (40%). Most patients (171 [92%]) had elevations in at least four biomarkers indicating inflammation.
   6350. BrianBrianson Posted: June 30, 2020 at 02:37 PM (#5960389)
@6345

Iran was one of the first outbreaks - maybe the first real outbreak, so they kinda drew a real short straw. China and Iran have strong trade relations these days, for the obvious reasons, and the first case was apparently from an Iranian merchant who travelled to China. I'm not sure how much tourism from Iran to China and vice versa there is, but obviously the sort of cultural reluctance you or I might experience travelling to those places is not there for them (though, I did spend two months in China).
   6351. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: June 30, 2020 at 03:05 PM (#5960400)
Was there any talk in here I missed about 5% of the 300 NBA players tested last week showing up positive? Doesn't that seem extremely higher? IDK about all models but this one, which hasn't done too badly, has 0.5% of the population currently infected. https://covid19-projections.com/us

Isn't that a big discrepancy? Or just small sample of invincible feeling young men that aren't worried about getting sick?
   6352. Laser Man Posted: June 30, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5960406)
[6350] Iran was trying to increase tourism from China before the coronavirus started, but they were still only averaging about 4000-5000 Chinese visitors per month in 2019. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of travelers from China typically visited the U.S. or Italy each month. It just seems unlikely to me that Iran would be one of the the world's largest outbreaks.
   6353. Kiko Sakata Posted: June 30, 2020 at 03:30 PM (#5960411)
IDK about all models but this one, which hasn't done too badly, has 0.5% of the population currently infected. https://covid19-projections.com/us


Your link seems to be self-contradictory. The title of the bottom graph says "Total Infected: 5.2% (As of Jun 30)". Which would exactly match NBA players (assuming the 5% for NBA players includes previous infections and/or is based on antibody testing).

That seems about right. Current (reported) deaths in the U.S. are a tick under 0.04% of the total population. At a 1% IFR that'd imply 3.5 - 4.0% of the U.S. population had the disease. Allow for the fact that there's a 2-3 week lag between infection and death and the infection rate has skyrocketed by 30-60% over the last couple of weeks and it's not hard to get up to 5% of the total U.S. population has had the disease.
   6354. Laser Man Posted: June 30, 2020 at 03:54 PM (#5960418)
[6353] That link says that 5.2% have been infected at some time, but only 0.5% are currently infected. So if you test all 500 NBA players today, you would only expect 0.5% to test positive. They weren't given an antibody test. But it's a small sample size, and probably a group that has been more socially active (workouts, scrimmages) than the general population.
   6355. Kiko Sakata Posted: June 30, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5960422)
That link says that 5.2% have been infected at some time, but only 0.5% are currently infected.


That latter number seems low to me. One of the things that makes COVID-19 so bad is that it sticks around for weeks. Something like one-quarter of the total U.S. cases per Worldometers were reported in the last three weeks. I'd be a little surprised if less than 1% of the U.S. population didn't currently have COVID-19. Which, yes, is quite a bit lower than 5% of NBA players. No idea if that difference is statistically significant though; you'd kind of expect the cases to be clumped together at least somewhat.
   6356. Howie Menckel Posted: June 30, 2020 at 04:31 PM (#5960436)
NYC, NJ and Philly have tapped the brakes on their 25 pct capacity indoor dining programs based on outbreaks elsewhere and slowing decreases locally (NJ had 47 COVID deaths Monday to FL 58, so NJ still perplexing owns the per-capita edge).

NJ was supposed to open those on Thursday, but now has postponed indefinitely. Restaurant owners are fuming because they bought extra food inventory to use in the first week that now will spoil, adding yet more debt to their precarious bottom lines.

Atlantic City casinos will reopen beginning on Thursday - but no smoking, eating, or drinking. that's a rally-killer for many gamblers.

AC's unemployment rate is 33 pct, highest in the state and maybe the nation.

The city's casinos were "only" down 65 pct in May 2020 vs May 2019, compared to 100 pct in almost all other states. That's mostly because NJ is one of a handful of states that offer online casino gambling.

Look for more widespread legalization of online casino and mobile sports betting nationwide in the next 12 months, as legislators search in desperation for "voluntary taxes."
   6357. PreservedFish Posted: June 30, 2020 at 04:35 PM (#5960437)
Given the right circumstances, it would take only one early COVID sufferer to engulf an entire nation in the epidemic. Exponential growth and all that. If my 25 seconds of work in Excel are correct, given an R0 of 2.5 and an infection interval of 7 days, it takes about 80 days for 1 person to grow into 1,000,000 total infections. A New Yorker reporter spoke to anonymous Iranian doctors who claimed that the infection reached the country as early as December.
   6358. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: June 30, 2020 at 04:35 PM (#5960438)
Atlantic City casinos will reopen beginning on Thursday - but no smoking, eating, or drinking.
So, only the truly hardcore gambling addicts.
   6359. Howie Menckel Posted: June 30, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5960441)
I thought the truly hardcore gambling addicts were the ones who smoke, eat, and drink as part of their experience?
   6360. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: June 30, 2020 at 08:03 PM (#5960478)
Texas currently sitting at 7400+ new cases today with most of the high-case counties reporting. Previous single-day high was 6200 six days ago. Surprise! Harris County (Houston) is not posting a crazy high number relative to the rest of the state. Today that honor falls to Bexar County (San Antonio).

Bexar (San Antonio) +1268
Harris (Houston) +693
Tarrant (Ft. Worth) +605
Dallas +601
Travis (Austin) +558
   6361. PreservedFish Posted: June 30, 2020 at 08:09 PM (#5960481)
Several studies have found that smoking protects one from COVID - perhaps it should be encouraged rather than outlawed.
   6362. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: June 30, 2020 at 09:26 PM (#5960495)
Some it might be language - if we assume the Iran's internal report is roughly correct, I'd call that the sort of undercounting we should expect, because it's the kind of ballpark everyone was in February/March. But you're calling it "severely undercounting". Iran would be anomalous if they weren't undercounting by some factor like that, especially in February/March.

But 10x I think stretches plausibility - that'd make Iran the highest number of deaths per capita (but behind the US and possibly Brésil in total deaths), and they're on their way up.

So, like of course we can't really be confident. If their internal numbers (that it sounds like weren't really produced for publicity?) suggest they were undercounting by ~50%, I think that's pretty plausible. I think my initial guess centered there. If total deaths are really 3x the official count, also plausible. But undercounting by 90+% is starting to get pretty implausible (numbers I've found have ~1% of Iran over 80, which is 1/7th Italy say). If Iran were really undercounting by 10x, they should be approaching herd immunity now, not entering a second wave.


50% undercount is not plausible. That's basically the USA. I'd give that about a 1% chance of being right.

And there's zero reason to assume Iran's internal report is roughly correct. It's a string indication that even they internally recognized that they had a serious undercounting problem and were willing to risk the ire of the internal government and the censure of the world over it.

Italy was almost certainly underocuting by at least 80% the first month of their outbreak. The USA itself was probably undercouning by 400% or more very early on (in February and March, when hardly any deaths were counted). Spain, since they have stopped counting completely, might still be undercounting by 80%. It strains credibility that Iran is only at 50%.

Which country do you think should have the highest per capita? the UK is probably at 1000 per million now. Spain, Belgium, and Italy are all close to that. Iran 10x would only be a little bit more. Peru, with only 1% of its population over 80, might have more per capita than all of them, and doesn't seem to be slowing down any time soon. Iran at 10x would not be out of step with these countries.

Personally I would think 4x or 5x is more likely than 10x to be around the actual number, but 50% is just not likely at all.


   6363. Mayor Blomberg Posted: June 30, 2020 at 09:52 PM (#5960499)
Pat, Houston was high yesterday, possibly with multi-day catch-up totals. Bexar's today after yesterday's surprising 650 (see 6330) is discouraging.

Dallas County's 20 deaths, even if it includes come catch-up is likewise grim. (As is my go-to pizza place being closed.)
   6364. Howie Menckel Posted: July 01, 2020 at 01:03 AM (#5960512)
Several studies have found that smoking protects one from COVID - perhaps it should be encouraged rather than outlawed.


interesting. does that include marijuana?
   6365. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 01, 2020 at 01:20 AM (#5960513)
Quick scan suggests the inverse correlation held up about as well as the efficacy of HCQ and the decreasing incidence of the virus in warmer weather.

But I'll still consume smoked salmon.
   6366. BrianBrianson Posted: July 01, 2020 at 02:37 AM (#5960516)
The USA itself was probably undercouning by 400% or more very early on


Or, uhm, this is also not how English works. If the US was undercounting by 400%, it would be covered in zombies.

Iran's internal estimate puts it undercounting by 40%-50%. Considering their age pyramid, this makes them pretty much where the hardest hit countries are - Iran at 200-300 per million is total infections in Italy or the UK or Italy at 1000-2000 per million. So I'm putting Iran in the ballpark with the hardest hit countries on Earth, and you're putting them at by far the highest. I don't think 3x or 4x is terribly implausible (indeed, if they internal review found they were undercounting by ~50%, that sets a new minumum, so we should adjust our priors up) - they got hit very early on, which had pretty much the first real massive outbreak, so being the worst hit is plausible. But by 10x, you need ~50% of Iranians to have contracted it, so it's straining the limits of how much they could've undercounted by (and that they're in a second wave should shift your priors away from 50+% having been infected)
   6367. Swoboda is freedom Posted: July 01, 2020 at 09:34 AM (#5960530)
Atlantic City casinos will reopen beginning on Thursday - but no smoking, eating, or drinking.


How about the prostitutes? Have they reopened them as well? (no pun intended)
   6368. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 01, 2020 at 12:37 PM (#5960548)
Have they reopened them as well? (no pun intended)


The least believable statement ever on BBTF!
   6369. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 01, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5960550)
No pun achieved.
   6370. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 01, 2020 at 02:45 PM (#5960577)
CDC estimate of excess came out again, but rather than use death totals through today (the day of the report) the way they have done for the past 4 weeks, they only used numbers through Monday, and those numbers were also incompolete (so really, through Sunday). Thus the new excess total calculated by the CDC is meaningless.

However, we still have actual counts through today, so adding those to the table from last week:

As last week, looks like there may continue to be a slow decrease in excess deaths from May 23-Jun 20, though now the drop from 5/23 to 5/30 looks a tad bigger.

Date of report    week ending    (weeks back)   total counted deaths (USA)

5/28              5/23            1              14,955 (after memorial day, so reporting may be extra laggy)
6/03              5/30            1              15,332
6/10              6/06            1              14,037
6/17              6/13            1              16,558
6/24              6/20            1              15,221
7/01              6/27            1              16,520

6/03              5/23            2              35,991
6/10              5/30            2              35,744
6/17              6/06            2              38,045
6/24              6/13            2              35,666
7/01              6/20            2              36,035

6/10              5/23            3              48,488
6/17              5/30            3              48,712
6/24              6/06            3              47,521
7/01              6/13            3              47,305

6/17              5/23            4              53,843
6/24              5/30            4              52,225
7/01              6/06            4              51,959

6/24              5/23            5              55,755
7/01              5/30            5              54,302

7/01              5/23            6              57,238

   6371. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 01, 2020 at 03:00 PM (#5960583)
Or, uhm, this is also not how English works. If the US was undercounting by 400%, it would be covered in zombies.
Oh come on. If I count one death and there were 5, that's a 400% undercount. Feel free to define your own terms if you like.


Iran at 200-300 per million is total infections in Italy or the UK or Italy at 1000-2000 per million
No. Iran has close to 2% of its population over 80. Spain has 5-6%. UK at tad less. Italy a tad more. NYC (ok, a city, so not really comparable. but still) is at 4%. You are way off.

Peru, with just 1% of their population over 80, was estimated to have 3.5x the reported deaths 1 month ago (19,000, or 600 per million). By your logic that should be impossible, inconceivable. And Peru could have double that now (1200 per million). since they now have double the number of reported deaths they had a month ago. (I'd guess they aren't quite that high, but it's possible.)

Your mistake is that you are assuming that these countries all have about the same number of cases per capita, when there is no reason to assume that is correct, and in fact, plenty of reason to think it is not correct. And, even if it were correct, it still doesn't explain Iran, who would, if actual deaths were 50% more than reported deaths, woiuld have only a little more than half the deaths you would expect.
   6372. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 01, 2020 at 05:59 PM (#5960629)

1437 cases reported in Harris County Texas today. That's enough to put he county #15 among nations, and number 9 among US states, provided NC and OH are done reporting.
   6373. Tony S Posted: July 01, 2020 at 06:46 PM (#5960635)
Roll Tide.

Maybe we really should have let them secede...
   6374. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 01, 2020 at 06:55 PM (#5960640)
Heck, if I had to live in Alabama, I might join them.
   6375. never forget: the pee tape is 57i66135 Posted: July 01, 2020 at 07:11 PM (#5960641)
The idea that the continued spread is the result of beleaguered people selfishly going out for a drink is wrong, too. America’s failure is not merely about regular people making poor choices. It is not for lack of actual solutions that we are still here, it is for lack of will and organized governmental effort to actually carry those solutions out. A Nobel prize winning economist has suggested that if we scale up testing enough—everybody gets a nasal swab every two weeks, with health care and other frontline workers getting tests more frequently—we could return to almost-normal. Instead, we’re in danger of plummeting back into a testing shortage. We could figure out how to extend government relief so that businesses that feel pressure to reopen could instead stay shut, and keep relief aid for the unemployed going, which would essentially provide systematic support for continued social distancing. We could have a president who sets an example by wearing a mask, as basically every other Republican has come around to suggesting.

Instead, we are here. Which, for me, is the same 10 by 10 room, only now, I’m watching as other Americans start to understand what it is like to be so horrifically close to a disease that we could control, but are choosing not to control. Maybe we’ll all get angrier, soon; maybe then we’ll finally do more about it.
link
   6376. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 01, 2020 at 08:19 PM (#5960644)
Texas 7772 cases, Hidalgo county (440 yesterday) not reporting. Likely to top 8000 today.
   6377. Eudoxus Posted: July 01, 2020 at 08:45 PM (#5960648)
Everyone calm down. Apparently the whole pandemic is over. Oh, sure, there's a "spike" in cases, but where's the spike in deaths? One of those rare bits of writing in which the argumentation would probably be improved by throwing in a few uses of "sheeple".

"True, deaths might surge again at some future date, but that’s a trivial logical truth." (Actual quote)
   6378. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 01, 2020 at 09:25 PM (#5960654)
Eudoxus -- Have you looked at his personal page? I mean, his photo perfectly captures the smug #### you of the line you quote, but the page puts him in the far extreme of batshit.

And TX tallied 8240 cases good for fourth place among countries. Harris County alone placed 18th among countries.

But we're not dying, so let's go!
   6379. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 01, 2020 at 09:43 PM (#5960657)
Houston hospitals are now feeling the impact of the recent surge in COVID-19 patients. According to Houston Chronicle's data team, Tuesday marked the highest single-day increase in COVID-19 cases for the state to date with more than 7,000 new cases reported.

Harris Health Systems, the public health system which operates Ben Taub and LBJ hospitals is now transferring COVID-19 patients to other healthcare facilities in outlying areas like Kingwood and the Woodlands. According to Harris Health Systems officials, 49 percent of the patients in Ben Taub's ICU are COVID-19 positive. Combined ICUs at Ben Taub and LBJ Hospitals are now at 85 percent capacity.

"We are now transferring out COVID-19 patients on a daily basis, because we don't have the internal capacity to manage them," said Charlie McMurray-Horton, the associated administrator of Clinical Integration and Transformation of Harris Health.


But as the guy quoted in 6377 would no doubt say, anyone who winds up in a public hospital is trivial.
   6380. PreservedFish Posted: July 01, 2020 at 09:52 PM (#5960659)
William M. Briggs is a senior contributor to The Stream, author of Uncertainty, blogger at wmbriggs.com, philosopher and itinerant scientist. He earned his Ph.D. from Cornell University in statistics.


For a guy with a PhD in statistics, he puts an awful lot of weight in data that he acknowledges is incomplete.
   6381. Eudoxus Posted: July 01, 2020 at 09:56 PM (#5960660)
Eudoxus -- Have you looked at his personal page? I mean, his photo perfectly captures the smug #### you of the line you quote, but the page puts him in the far extreme of batshit.

Oh, he's (kind of) from my field. How embarrassing, if not wholly surprising.
   6382. Ron J Posted: July 01, 2020 at 10:08 PM (#5960661)
Masks mandatory in all enclosed public spaces in Toronto. (And all of the smaller places in Toronto's orbit)

Well "mandatory" as the mayor says it won't be aggressively enforced (except on public transit). Businesses will be able (and encouraged) to enforce a "No mask, no service" policy.

EDIT: Mandatory masks coming to Ottawa next Monday as well. My nephew does outreach and he'll have to have a face shield as well.
   6383. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 01, 2020 at 10:18 PM (#5960662)
He is the kind of guy who helps to explain why Texas is in the mess it is.

Abbott spent the last 20 years egging on this asshattery and has been successful enough that the state lege is dominated by that faction. Now he's stuck trying to act quasi-rationally and is getting his ass kicked by his own side.

Asked for permission to return to work at home, "Abbott dismissed the idea, saying the official was asking to “force poverty” on people" (Texas Tribune). So now reps in his own party is suing him over the bar closure, hospitals are awash in COVID patients (MD Anderson is now taking COVID patients with cancer instead of treating cancer) and they are losing money, but a true Republican would rather be dead than poor (as Clapper attested).

But like so many people making the argument, Abbott doesn't give a #### for the workers who may be poor but only because the economy and the polity have failed them, his concern is with the folks who are his base, his contributors, and need disposable people. They may be dead but they won't be poor, and after all they'd be that way soon enough.
   6384. BrianBrianson Posted: July 02, 2020 at 09:26 AM (#5960674)
Oh come on. If I count one death and there were 5, that's a 400% undercount. Feel free to define your own terms if you like.


Not if you speak English, no; If there are five cases and you count one, that's an 80% undercount. In France, we undercounted COVID deaths in December by 100% - there was (at least) one death, and we counted zero;

No. Iran has close to 2% of its population over 80.


I can't figure out where you're getting this number. It was 1.22% in 2011, and 1.37% in 2016. Maybe 1.5% today. In Italy in 2016, 6.7% of people were over 80, Spain was 6.0% then. So, in 2016, Italy was 4.9x, Spain 4.4x

Your mistake is that you are assuming that these countries all have about the same number of cases per capita


I didn't assume this, I postulated it was a reasonable centre for your priors. Could Iran have by far the highest number of per capita cases? Sure, it could, but our priors should caution us against that. It could be. But if you assume their real death count was 2-3x their official count you infer an infection rate that looks like the worst of Europe. Of course it could be higher (indeed, since they got hit first), but by 10x is ... not herd immunity, probably, but maybe getting close, which clashes with a second wave.

Though I agree probably pretty much everywhere undercounting is likely to be decreasing (and probably the lag is going down), which complicates things.
   6385. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 02, 2020 at 10:23 AM (#5960681)
https://news.yahoo.com/arizona-tells-pence-it-needs-additional-500-healthcare-workers-as-covid-19-cases-soar-212413231.html

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey told Vice President Mike Pence on Wednesday that the state needed an additional 500 health care workers as the number of cases of COVID-19 continues to set records there.

On Wednesday, the state said that 28.3 percent of residents tested over the past 24 hours were positive for the disease caused by the coronavirus, the highest percent of any state in the nation.

As of Wednesday, 85 percent of the state’s inpatient hospital beds were in use, and 89 percent of its ICU beds were occupied.

Last week, Pence hailed the “truly remarkable progress” the country had made against COVID-19.

At the same time, Pence acknowledged the rise in COVID-19 cases across the Sun Belt, including in Arizona. Over the last 14 days, the number of cases of the disease have risen nationwide by 82 percent.

   6386. Ron J Posted: July 02, 2020 at 10:41 AM (#5960684)
#6385 In Canada we actually used Armed Forces personnel to cover gaps in long term care facilities in both Ontario and Quebec.
   6387. Ron J Posted: July 02, 2020 at 10:46 AM (#5960687)
Another quarantine screwup. This time in Australia. Two people who were released from quarantine have subsequently tested positive elsewhere. One is the first positive test in three months in the Northern Territories so they're pretty sure he was positive before getting there.
   6388. PreservedFish Posted: July 02, 2020 at 10:51 AM (#5960689)
28.3 percent of residents tested over the past 24 hours were positive


Wow. That's really high. Have they restricted testing to only those showing obvert symptoms?
   6389. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 02, 2020 at 12:02 PM (#5960706)
New cases in Florida today broke 10,000 at Worldometers. I think this makes Florida only the second state to report 10,000 cases in a single day (New York did so seven times in April).
   6390. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 02, 2020 at 12:03 PM (#5960707)
PF, I don't know the reasons why, but Arizona's positive test rate has been climbing and climbing:

https://covidactnow.org/us/az?s=60788

Their infection rate is DOWN to 1.21, after peaking at 1.36 in early June.
   6391. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 02, 2020 at 12:27 PM (#5960715)
Well, to be fair, Pence hailed the truly remarkable progress we've made containing the virus and reopening the country.

And he hailed the truly remarkable progress we've made recontaining the virus after we reopened the country.

Rinse and repeat.
   6392. PreservedFish Posted: July 02, 2020 at 12:38 PM (#5960716)
Seems like we're reopening the virus and recontaining the country.
   6393. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 02, 2020 at 12:45 PM (#5960717)
Well, to be fair, Pence hailed the truly remarkable progress we've made containing the virus and reopening the country.

This whole last month has been a political shitstorm (longer but am giving some benefit of the doubt here). I cannot see how this election is not a landslide victory for the Democrats. The Republicans gambled on containment and failed horribly. I would not have made the gamble and criticized them for doing so while acknowledging if they pulled it off it could mean re-election for them.

The only thing that can save the Republicans in my opinion is a vaccine 3+ weeks before election, even then I am just being generous.

I consider myself an independent but in truth have been drifting further left as the right seems to give center stage to more and more divisive people intent on pulling this country apart in seemingly every way possible.
   6394. Tony S Posted: July 02, 2020 at 12:58 PM (#5960718)

Bumper sticker today: ALL LIVES MATTER. WEAR A MASK.
   6395. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 02, 2020 at 12:58 PM (#5960719)
Iran at 300 million actual dead (versus there 130 reported) would not be at all in line with western europe. It would be more like 160-200 million. (20-50% undercount).

The UK, now with close to 1100 people dead per million, is at 4.8% population over 80, probably about 3x Iran. If they had an equal number infected as Iran (never one of my assumptions, by the way) and everything else were the same, you would expect 350 or more per million in Iran. Actual numbers, as of today, are 132 per million, so easily a factor of 2.5 or 3. In other words, not very close at all to what they've reported.

This analysis also relies on some dubious assumptions, most of which imply an even bigger undercount, such as that people in Iran die younger for reasons completely uncorrelated with being susceptible to covid, and that the medical care is equal to western europe. Of course, the assumption that the same number are infected in Iran as places in western europe is also unfounded. It also completely ignores places like Peru, which on a comparison basis (if deaths were pro rata with people over 80 would have to have 5x-7x as many people infected per capita than western europe.




   6396. Hot Wheeling American Posted: July 02, 2020 at 12:59 PM (#5960720)
The only thing that can save the Republicans in my opinion is a vaccine 3+ weeks before election, even then I am just being generous.

Can't wait to not jump at the opportunity to be first in line for the rushed-to-market Trump Vaccine and get bad faith lumped in with the anti-vaxxers.
   6397. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 02, 2020 at 01:07 PM (#5960721)
Can't wait to not jump at the opportunity to be first in line for the rushed-to-market Trump Vaccine and get bad faith lumped in with the anti-vaxxers.


I really don't expect the vaccine that quick, the FDA has currently said that they will not lower their standards for this vaccine. Which has a minimum of 6 months of data from a phase 2/3 trial as it's most limiting factor time-wise. So if we do get it before the election it will either be through rushed political pressure or the data being too obvious to ignore. I really hope we have a scenario of too obvious to ignore but not holding my breath.

   6398. Tony S Posted: July 02, 2020 at 01:15 PM (#5960722)
I really don't expect the vaccine that quick, the FDA has currently said that they will not lower their standards for this vaccine. Which has a minimum of 6 months of data from a phase 2/3 trial as it's most limiting factor time-wise. So if we do get it before the election it will either be through rushed political pressure or the data being too obvious to ignore. I really hope we have a scenario of too obvious to ignore but not holding my breath.


It's way too optimistic to think a (safe and effective) vaccine will be available by November, even if Rand Paul says that if we close our eyes and believe it will come true. But it's not unrealistic to hope for some sort of treatment before then. In fact, death rates have been drifting down in large part because social distancing and mask-wearing were lessening the pressure on hospitals, who were better able to care for COVID patients as a result. That's been blown out of the water now...
   6399. PreservedFish Posted: July 02, 2020 at 01:19 PM (#5960723)
The only thing that can save the Republicans in my opinion is a vaccine 3+ weeks before election, even then I am just being generous.


Oh please. Nothing would shock me. It's still anybody's game. So much weird #### can still happen that could swing the odds this way or that.

the FDA has currently said that they will not lower their standards for this vaccine.


Ahem, I think you mean the deep state will allow people to die in order to frustrate Trump's chances at re-election.
   6400. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 02, 2020 at 01:25 PM (#5960724)
Iran at 300 million actual dead


There's a missing per in that clause, I take it?
Page 64 of 66 pages ‹ First  < 62 63 64 65 66 > 

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
tshipman
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogEmpty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird
(6521 - 7:01pm, Jul 06)
Last: Hank Gillette

NewsblogCleveland Indians look into changing name amid pressure
(140 - 6:47pm, Jul 06)
Last: winnipegwhip

NewsblogWith baby on the way, Trout unsure if he'll play
(51 - 6:44pm, Jul 06)
Last: Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 7-6-2020
(23 - 6:18pm, Jul 06)
Last: Nasty Nate

NewsblogOT – NBA Revival Thread 2020
(465 - 6:04pm, Jul 06)
Last: Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1928 Results
(2 - 4:48pm, Jul 06)
Last: DL from MN

NewsblogCovid-19 test delays impacting multiple teams
(14 - 4:43pm, Jul 06)
Last: Karl from NY

Newsblog8th? BBTF Central Park Softball Game: October 3
(54 - 4:00pm, Jul 06)
Last: Hysterical & Useless

NewsblogNats’ Ryan Zimmerman, Joe Ross among first MLB players to opt out of 2020 season
(6 - 3:54pm, Jul 06)
Last: Itchy Row

NewsblogBill James: Why We Need Runs Saved Against Zero
(181 - 3:30pm, Jul 06)
Last: Rally

NewsblogDodgers pitcher David Price opts out of 2020 MLB season
(14 - 2:19pm, Jul 06)
Last: Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew

NewsblogOT Soccer Thread - Spring 2020
(367 - 1:03pm, Jul 06)
Last: Mefisto

NewsblogYankees’ Masahiro Tanaka hit in head by Giancarlo Stanton line drive
(16 - 11:08am, Jul 06)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogOT - Catch-All Pop Culture Extravaganza (July 2020)
(2 - 9:39am, Jul 06)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogAre there graves under Tropicana Field parking lots? Archaeologists want to find out
(8 - 3:02am, Jul 06)
Last: John Northey

-->

Page rendered in 0.9306 seconds
46 querie(s) executed