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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 8756 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   6401. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 02, 2020 at 01:35 PM (#5960725)
Your vaccine scorecard.

The Onford/AstraZenica vaccine combined phase 2&3 trial began 20 June
   6402. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 02, 2020 at 01:39 PM (#5960727)
It's way too optimistic to think a (safe and effective) vaccine will be available by November,

I have worked on a handful of studies (3-5% maybe) in my career where the FDA has said that the data was too obvious to ignore vs the benefit of ending the study early. Those were without a crisis but they were also smaller affected populations.
   6403. phredbird Posted: July 02, 2020 at 01:49 PM (#5960728)

i'm curious.

does anybody think we will actually have any professional or intercollegiate sports at all this year?

with this latest surge i just don't see it.

the thing i keep coming back to in my mind is that if i was an athlete i simply would not want to be out on the playing fields. ryan zimmerman took a pass today.

football? forget it. i wouldn't even want to be on a tennis court. look at djokovic.

i'm happy to be talked off the ledge, so ... anybody?
   6404. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 02, 2020 at 01:54 PM (#5960729)
Latest NFL report I've seen is shortened season and waivers for fans attending games
   6405. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 02, 2020 at 01:56 PM (#5960730)
does anybody think we will actually have any professional or intercollegiate sports at all this year?

I think games will be played in basically all the sports.

I think we'll see a completed season in few to none. Most likely none. Maybe the NBA can race thru the playoffs and finish. MLB playing 60 seems extremely unlikely. Playing all 60 and full playoffs nearly impossible.

   6406. Yardape Posted: July 02, 2020 at 01:59 PM (#5960731)
i'm curious.

does anybody think we will actually have any professional or intercollegiate sports at all this year?


I guess it depends on what you mean by "professional sports", but NASCAR and the PGA have both been holding events, and the NWSL (women's pro soccer) started their bubble tournament last weekend.
   6407. puck Posted: July 02, 2020 at 02:02 PM (#5960732)
does anybody think we will actually have any professional or intercollegiate sports at all this year?


We'll find out soon. NWSL has started their tournament. The Orlando team pulled out just before the tourney started when they had a number of players and staff test positive.

Next is MLS, their bubble tourney in a Disney resort in Orlando starts July 8. The Dallas team somehow had 6 players and a coach/staff test positive *after* entering the bubble. That's on top of 3 players who tested positive before the team left for Orlando. Supposedly everyone who got on the plan tested negative.

I guess we'll see what happens to MLB with these outbreaks. Seems like it will be difficult.
   6408. Srul Itza Posted: July 02, 2020 at 02:07 PM (#5960736)
I cannot see how this election is not a landslide victory for the Democrats.


Look again.

The Republicans who now say they will not vote for Trump, will look at the ballot, and vote for Trump because Republicans.

The Stupids who voted for him last time will vote for him.

The Young, who are now supposedly active, will again vote in lower number because Young.

Now, I think Biden has a good chance of winning. But Hillary's supporters looked at the polls and declared victory before voting started. How did that turn out, again?

History repeats itself, the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.

   6409. Ron J Posted: July 02, 2020 at 02:11 PM (#5960737)
does anybody think we will actually have any professional or intercollegiate sports at all this year?

In the US? Yeah. Elsewhere? French Open has already announced plans with 60% seating capacity.
   6410. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 02, 2020 at 02:14 PM (#5960738)
does anybody think we will actually have any professional or intercollegiate sports at all this year?


Having lived in the South for 8 years of my life I cannot imagine what amount of risk would be unacceptable to your average college football fan in the southern states. I honestly never understood it, and it is not just the meatballs and yahoo's it is everyone and all education levels.
   6411. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 02, 2020 at 02:24 PM (#5960740)
The Republicans who now say they will not vote for Trump, will look at the ballot, and vote for Trump because Republicans.


Fully expect hardliners to vote with their party. That's what, 33-35% of voters?

The Young, who are now supposedly active, will again vote in lower number because Young.

I have not idea what the young turnout will be vs last election, but I can almost guarantee the senior vote will be less. Having no idea how busy I will be on election day this year but not wanting to chance missing the vote I will be absentee balloting this year for sure.

Now, I think Biden has a good chance of winning. But Hillary's supporters looked at the polls and declared victory before voting started. How did that turn out, again?

I am not looking at polls, it is an opinion. I did not think Hillary was a good candidate, she is/was a very divisive person and while Biden was not my first, second or third choice for the Democratic representative for this election he is not a bad candidate. While I did not think Hillary was a good candidate I did not give Trump much of a chance, so I get not counting the chickens before they hatch.
   6412. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 02, 2020 at 02:49 PM (#5960744)
Some players can't get to the bubble soon enough:

Cubs' Jose Quintana hurt washing dishes, has surgery
The team said the 31-year-old was injured at his home in Miami, suffering a laceration on his left thumb that required five stitches.
"This morning in Chicago, Quintana underwent microscopic surgery on his left thumb to further determine the extent of his injury," the team said Thursday in a statement. "The procedure identified a lacerated digital sensory nerve in his left thumb, which was surgically repaired."
   6413. phredbird Posted: July 02, 2020 at 04:07 PM (#5960766)

sorry if i dismissed things like NWSL, NASCAR and golf. none of those are really on my radar.

i'm ruminating on the big ones.

i'm still not convinced we aren't seeing the start of a cascade towards nothing.

i will concede that things might START, but finish ... ? i dunno.

as for the french open, what is going to happen if one player tests positive? they'll keep going? really?

and really, if the french open shuts down, i think the US Open is doomed.

i get that fans will watch, and that football fans all over would attend those games. i just think the impetus towards shutting down will come from the athletes as they see the reality of the spread — we already have seen some of that — and maybe from the stewards of the sports. for instance, MLB vs MLBPA is a contentious thing. is there legal exposure in there somewhere for the owners if the players all start getting sick? are waivers going to neutralize that? have the players agreed to one?

my apologies if this stuff has been covered elsewhere in the thread, i have not been keeping up.


   6414. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 02, 2020 at 04:14 PM (#5960768)
I expect the NFL to be able to sneak in a 10-game season or something that starts in November. I don't think we'll see any of the other major team sports until 2021.
   6415. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 02, 2020 at 05:55 PM (#5960789)
football? forget it. i wouldn't even want to be on a tennis court. look at djokovic.

Djokovic was partying at a club without a shirt on, let alone a mask. I doubt it was the tennis that got him.
   6416. Srul Itza Posted: July 02, 2020 at 06:00 PM (#5960790)
Biden ... is not a bad candidate.


Biden is okay as a politician, accepting that they all have some warts.

As a candidate -- he is not so hot. The less he talks, the more his support grows.

AND THAT is my last OTP comment for the week. I will stifle myself.
   6417. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 02, 2020 at 06:02 PM (#5960791)
AND THAT is my last OTP comment for the week. I will stifle myself.


Yeah, sorry for starting that. Was venting and didn't think about it going OTP.
   6418. puck Posted: July 02, 2020 at 06:33 PM (#5960795)
The less he talks, the more his support grows.


Where is Chauncey Gardner when you need him?
   6419. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 02, 2020 at 06:43 PM (#5960797)
Biden is okay as a politician, accepting that they all have some warts.

As a candidate -- he is not so hot. The less he talks, the more his support grows.

he's not the change we need; he's the change we deserve.
Where is Chauncey Gardner when you need him?
the mid-90s running back?
Having lived in the South for 8 years of my life I cannot imagine what amount of risk would be unacceptable to your average college football fan in the southern states. I honestly never understood it, and it is not just the meatballs and yahoo's it is everyone and all education levels.
it will take literal military intervention to prevent college football from happening this year.


   6420. phredbird Posted: July 02, 2020 at 08:23 PM (#5960803)
oops
   6421. phredbird Posted: July 02, 2020 at 08:25 PM (#5960804)

Djokovic was partying at a club without a shirt on, let alone a mask.


... which was a function of his general disdain about preventative measures during a tennis tournament he organized. if you are rafael nadal do you want to be in the same locker room with him and his pals?

the same general question comes to mind about all these other sports. will NBA players stay in the 'bubble' in the middle of one of the epicenters of covid spread? they're not all on the same page about prevention.

MLB letting games go on in different states is a disaster waiting to happen.

still doing my debbie downer thing, i guess. my apologies, i'll stop.
   6422. Sebastian Posted: July 02, 2020 at 08:43 PM (#5960805)
Soccer’s doing okay. Germany restarted after a two month break and finished the respective seasons of the first and second division last weekend. The only hiccup were a couple of players from second tier Dynamo Dresden, who tested positive shortly before the season restarted. That team had to sit out the first two weeks, which made them miss three rounds of fixtures that they had to play on a tighter schedule. Some leagues ended their championships during the break (France, Scotland, possibly a Belgium) but the big ones are back in action and are looking to finish up their domestic seasons by the end of July. All those matches are played without spectators. One of the Scandinavian countries allowed a very small contingent of supporters into the stadium for a cup tie in the last few days. They had to halt the match for half an hour, because fans didn’t adhere to distancing guidelines.

Oh, and Formula One will kick off their long delayed season on Sunday. Sports can be done, but it’s not that straightforward.
   6423. puck Posted: July 02, 2020 at 08:57 PM (#5960806)
So is it a thing going around that the number of positives are so high because the totals count every positive test, even if there are multiple positives from the same person? Heard that at work today, from "a friend of my wife's, who's a nurse."
   6424. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 02, 2020 at 09:28 PM (#5960809)
but they'd so that with negatives, too, which are the larger fraction of all texts.
   6425. Cleveland (need new name) fan Posted: July 02, 2020 at 09:37 PM (#5960810)
So is it a thing going around that the number of positives are so high because the totals count every positive test, even if there are multiple positives from the same person? Heard that at work today, from "a friend of my wife's, who's a nurse."


Even if this was true, how many people are having multiple tests within the time it takes to make a positive/negative decision on the original test? It would have to account for a tiny fraction of the 50K+ daily positive tests we are experiencing this week.
   6426. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 02, 2020 at 09:43 PM (#5960811)
On June 16, Vice President Mike Pence bragged that the U.S. was seeing an average of 20,000 new infections a day, a decline from the April high of about 30,000 new daily cases. Since Pence’s boast, the U.S. has recorded more than 30,000 new cases on every day but four. Six days ago, the country reported more than 40,000 daily cases for the first time. Now it has smashed through the 50,000 mark.


cases not tests
   6427. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 02, 2020 at 10:01 PM (#5960816)
Most shocking virus news I've seen:

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Thursday ordered that face coverings must be worn in public across most of the state, a dramatic ramp-up of the Republican's efforts to control spiking numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases and hospitalizations.
-- Houston Chronicle
   6428. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 02, 2020 at 11:12 PM (#5960822)
Most shocking virus news I've seen:

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Thursday ordered that face coverings must be worn in public across most of the state, a dramatic ramp-up of the Republican's efforts to control spiking numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases and hospitalizations.
-- Houston Chronicle

my heatfelt thoughts and prayers go out to all those who feel like they've been infected by this decision.
   6429. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 02, 2020 at 11:20 PM (#5960824)
I am not looking at polls, it is an opinion. I did not think Hillary was a good candidate, she is/was a very divisive person and while Biden was not my first, second or third choice for the Democratic representative for this election he is not a bad candidate. While I did not think Hillary was a good candidate I did not give Trump much of a chance, so I get not counting the chickens before they hatch.
she wasn't evil.


the fact that tens of millions of white americans either couldn't tell the difference between evil and not evil, didn't care about the difference between evil and not evil, or actively preferred evil to not evil, is the only meaningful take away from the 2016 election.
   6430. puck Posted: July 02, 2020 at 11:20 PM (#5960825)
but they'd so that with negatives, too, which are the larger fraction of all texts.


I didn't mean is that what's really going on with the counting, as it does not seem to be the case. I just thought that was a weird rumor to be going around, and wondered if that is how the right is now trying to explain everything away. It's the reverse of what the fired Florida health dept person said about how Florida was counting tests.
   6431. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 02, 2020 at 11:23 PM (#5960826)
So is it a thing going around that the number of positives are so high because the totals count every positive test, even if there are multiple positives from the same person? Heard that at work today, from "a friend of my wife's, who's a nurse."


I've seen this a couple of times on Facebook from friends of my friends (I assume) responding to my friends - i.e., I haven't seen this claimed by anybody I actually know (although my brother-in-law is very strongly in the "this is a strong flu exaggerated by the Democrat Party to ruin Trump's economy" camp). To be honest, I hadn't really understood what they were claiming because, as #6425 says, who would take two separate tests mere days apart? I mean, I can see somebody who got the disease several weeks ago taking a test to see if they've recovered and finding out, "Nope, sorry, you still have the disease a month later". But how many of these people do these folks imagine are out there? And, for that matter, having thousands of people testing positive a second time weeks after testing positive the first time would seem to fairly severely undermine the whole "it's no big deal" thing anyway.
   6432. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 02, 2020 at 11:41 PM (#5960829)
Didn't think you did, puck. But it would be one response.
   6433. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: July 03, 2020 at 12:06 AM (#5960831)
So is it a thing going around that the number of positives are so high because the totals count every positive test, even if there are multiple positives from the same person? Heard that at work today, from "a friend of my wife's, who's a nurse."

My impression is more in the other direction - that many states are reporting positives as a percentage of total samples instead of as a percentage of people tested, which counts multiple negatives from people who are tested multiple times (because they work in positions requiring regular testing, or whatever else).
   6434. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: July 03, 2020 at 12:15 AM (#5960832)
Anecdotally I know of two people who showed symptoms, tested negative, got worse, self quarantined and then tested positive 5+ days later. One may have infected my mother In law, who tested negative today but was definitely exposed between person #2’s first and second test.

I don’t know why you’d get a second test if you tested positive?
   6435. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: July 03, 2020 at 12:38 AM (#5960837)
Testing positive could mean you're about to spend the next month in a cell. I could see where some people would want to avoid that kind of consequence -- presumably these are the same people who were congregating in large groups that where shamed on Twitter -- and a negative test may be a way out.
   6436. EddieA Posted: July 03, 2020 at 04:56 AM (#5960844)
Very doubtful about multiple positive tests. Probably everywhere in the country, they are tracked diligently so that it's cases. Brother had it and has been marked as recovered and says the health department contacts him daily to see how he and his family are doing - obviously they have tied test results to a specific person.
   6437. BrianBrianson Posted: July 03, 2020 at 05:33 AM (#5960846)
I agree it seems very implausible that someone would have multiple positive tests. Multiple negatives are more plausible.

But, as always, other than as a kind of lower bound, tests positive percentages and total positives tests are tough to interpret, since who is getting tested is liable to keep changing.
   6438. BrianBrianson Posted: July 03, 2020 at 05:42 AM (#5960847)
Iran at 300 million actual dead



There's a missing per in that clause, I take it?


Now who's an apologist for Iran?

Apart from which, Bea seems pretty pretty determined to disagree with me because I'm not mindlessly critical of Iran. @6395 tries to disagree with me by suggesting real deaths are 2.5-3x official, when my initial estimate was that they were probably 1.5x-3.5x official (though I've shifted towards 2x-4x given their internal counting showing they undercounted by ~45% by missing a lot of outside of hospital deaths - so, uhm, I guess you can accuse me of moving goalposts if you're desperate to disagree).
   6439. Ron J Posted: July 03, 2020 at 09:41 AM (#5960853)
I'll be interested to see/hear how July 4 plays out given restrictions on public gatherings.

One thing I hadn't thought about. People are going to set their fireworks off regardless of what the rules say. If they can't do it where they normally would they'll do it some place stupid.

An apartment building near my nephew was burned down by some clown setting of fireworks nearby. (Canada Day festivities) And the local cops had to break up a huge gathering of people who'd pooled their fireworks since the official fireworks were cancelled.
   6440. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 03, 2020 at 11:46 AM (#5960861)
For anyone desperate for some bat-and-ball action, the England cricket team is wrapping up an intrasquad game today and is streaming it live on ecb.co.uk. No sound, and limited replay. But if you've ever wanted to see the sport, at least this is freely available without location constraints - and there should be some aggressive batting as Team Stokes tries to push for a win.
   6441. Swoboda is freedom Posted: July 03, 2020 at 11:47 AM (#5960862)
My wife works in an ER. A couple of year back, some idiot lost his thumb and had bad burns on his hand from a fireworks accident. M80.
   6442. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 03, 2020 at 12:27 PM (#5960867)
One thing I hadn't thought about. People are going to set their fireworks off regardless of what the rules say. If they can't do it where they normally would they'll do it some place stupid.


That's covered her3e in TX. They're the same place
   6443. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 03, 2020 at 12:32 PM (#5960868)
Bea seems pretty pretty determined to disagree with me because I'm not mindlessly critical of Iran
Like I would waste all this effort trying to convince someone to be mindless. Sheesh.

my initial estimate was that they were probably 1.5x-3.5x official (though I've shifted towards 2x-4x given their internal counting showing they undercounted by ~45% by missing a lot of outside of hospital deaths - so, uhm, I guess you can accuse me of moving goalposts if you're desperate to disagree).
Well, maybe this is half the disconnect. That degree of undercounting is far more than western europe that it's not really on the same scale (its's about 5x greater). It lines up much better with the rest of the world that is not western europe or the US, like I said from the beginning. Your quote is the following, which, if "anyone else" means western europe, is not correct. The below is what started this.

So, I was also pretty skeptical of Iran's numbers at first, but given what we've learned, I think it makes sense to at least be more open to the idea they weren't any worse than anyone else (i.e., maybe they were undercounting by the same ~50% that everyone was in February/March).


Also, I have NOT suggested the real deaths are 2.5x to 3x the reported number. Please do not put words in mouth. What I said was that by your logic of assuming the same per capita infection as UK/Spain/Italy and that deaths should occur pro rata per case by the percent of the population over 80, Iran still seems to be undercounting by a factor of 2.5 to 3. As I've said, I think your two assumption are poor (for example, they don't work at all for Peru) and Iran's actual deaths are higher, maybe on the order of 5x what has been reported.
   6444. Ron J Posted: July 03, 2020 at 12:51 PM (#5960871)
New candidate for dumbest performance in a video conference.

I think everybody whose done a conference has a story. Mine is nothing more than overly casual clothing and a really bad case of Covid hair in a meeting that my boss's boss happened to join us for.

Some clown actually took a shower during a video conference. Well he says he was trying to multi-task and didn't realize he was still in the meeting. Still an impressive achievement.
   6445. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 03, 2020 at 12:54 PM (#5960872)
I've heard those stories of profs walking out of a lecture sill mic-ed up; usually involves a urinal.
   6446. Ron J Posted: July 03, 2020 at 01:09 PM (#5960873)
#6445 I can see it. We all have so much to learn when it comes to video conferencing and working from home.
   6447. Swoboda is freedom Posted: July 03, 2020 at 02:13 PM (#5960880)
I've heard those stories of profs walking out of a lecture sill mic-ed up; usually involves a urinal.


That was Naked Gun.
   6448. PreservedFish Posted: July 03, 2020 at 02:59 PM (#5960884)
I had a boss that would insist on bringing conversations/lectures into the bathroom when he needed to piss, like LBJ. I wonder how his Zoom hygiene is.
   6449. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 03, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5960887)
The economy adapts to the times. Along the lines of the Mega-Pack of TP, the 99-Pack Of Beer!
   6450. Srul Itza At Home Posted: July 03, 2020 at 03:53 PM (#5960890)
Deleted -- went OTP by reflex Sorry
   6451. Srul Itza At Home Posted: July 03, 2020 at 03:55 PM (#5960891)
I just thought that was a weird rumor to be going around


As rumors go, this barely rates a 4 on the weird-o-meter.
   6452. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 03, 2020 at 04:58 PM (#5960899)
Was there any talk in here I missed about 5% of the 300 NBA players tested last week showing up positive? Doesn't that seem extremely higher? IDK about all models but this one, which hasn't done too badly, has 0.5% of the population currently infected. https://covid19-projections.com/us


Following up on this conversation from last page and bringing it back to baseball, John Heyman tweeted that MLB testing found 38 positives out of 3,185 tests, which is 1.2%. Seems reasonable, I suppose. That's obviously more than just players as 3,185 tests works out to more than 100 per team.
   6453. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 03, 2020 at 05:04 PM (#5960900)
MLB testing found 38 positives out of 3,185 tests . . .
Other reports break that down as 31 players and 7 staff members. Unclear whether that includes the prior testing or just the current re-opening batch.
   6454. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 03, 2020 at 08:26 PM (#5960924)
Looks like almost certainly another 8,000 case day in Texas when all is reported; four 7300+ reported so far and five counties that accounted for 1,000 combined yesterday still outstanding.
   6455. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 03, 2020 at 09:16 PM (#5960932)
I've heard those stories of profs walking out of a lecture sill mic-ed up; usually involves a urinal.

That was Naked Gun.


One was the Humanities Core Course I TA'd for
   6456. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 03, 2020 at 10:48 PM (#5960939)
FYI, for anybody tracking data. The L.A. County Department of Public Health reports that "Public Health will be improving our data processing systems and will not report data beginning on Friday, July 3rd until Monday, July 6th." L.A. County reported 2,204 cases and 55 deaths on July 2nd. So the numbers at Worldometers, for example, might be under-reported by something like that for the next few days.

Even beyond that, I would guess that the numbers for the next three days will probably be a bit low because of the holiday weekend. Following up #6454, for example, Worldometers' number for Texas for today was 7,343 but showed no new cases (or deaths) in eight counties that have at least 1,000 total cases (and several smaller counties).

I'm going to predict that Tuesday, July 7th will be the first day with 1,000 deaths at Worldometers in almost a month due to catch-up from the holiday weekend. Even if true, I think it will take several days beyond that to see if the trend in deaths will have finally started to increase or not.

Even with all that, total cases reported today were 54,904, the third straight day above 50,000, on the heels of six straight days above 40,000, the first of which was the first day with over 40,000 new cases in the U.S. in the history of the pandemic. I wouldn't be surprised to see 60,000 cases by July 7th as well. When Dr. Fauci suggested that cases could hit 100,000 a day, I thought he was being a bit hyperbolic, but man, exponential growth is really something.
   6457. Hank Gillette Posted: July 03, 2020 at 11:18 PM (#5960941)
It seems to be undeniable that while U.S. infections are hitting new heights, deaths are still declining. Any theories on that? Is it just that deaths are a lagging statistic and haven’t reached the new heights yet, or is it that many/most of the newer reported infections are younger people, and thus more likely to survive?

Earlier cases were for the most part people who were unaware of the danger, or older people nursing homes who had the virus brought to them by relatives or caretakers. New cases seem to be people who had the information to protect themselves but chose to ignore it, almost daring the virus to infect them.

I am quite sick of the stories of people who ignored advice to distance themselves, caught the virus, and then talk about how sorry they are. Learn from other’s mistakes, people.
   6458. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 03, 2020 at 11:25 PM (#5960943)
I'd hazard that three factors are fairly uncontroversially present,

1.Younger average age; in part because we've learned to protect the elderly.
2.Hospitals are not (yet) overwhelmed, as they were in the Northeast. Remember, though, deaths lag infection.
3.Hospitals have a better sense of what works and doesn't.

Obvious caveat is that we don't know the severity of the damage it leaves behind in people who recuperate.

ETA: The numbers Kiko cites from LA are a higher ratio of positives to deaths than I'm used to seeing in Texas (or Florida)/ I'm not sure what that indicates.
   6459. puck Posted: July 03, 2020 at 11:35 PM (#5960945)
This trend of younger folks catching covid19 in big numbers isn't great for fall college plans. Maybe the students will be willing to live with it, but the faculty must include plenty of people who shouldn't be risking it (people 50-70, with the risk factor conditions).

What are elementary/middle/high schools going to do? There seems to be a belief young children don't spread it readily to adults, but I assume there's some spread. And then what about teenagers?
   6460. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 03, 2020 at 11:37 PM (#5960946)
Is it just that deaths are a lagging statistic and haven’t reached the new heights yet, or is it that many/most of the newer reported infections are younger people, and thus more likely to survive?


I think both of these are probably true - well, the former is definitely true. I also think that there is a LOT more testing going on than several months ago, so 40,000 reported cases today aren't the same as, say, 30,000 reported cases in April. That said, I don't think there's much, if any, more testing capacity today than there was, say, 10 days ago, so the jump from 35,000-ish per day to 57,000 per day or whatever is probably real.

It makes sense to me that the first wave of cases would be young folks - people going out to bars or parties or protests - and the older folks who are more likely to die may not get it until the next round when the young folks pass it along to their families and acquaintances or what not. But that's just a guess.

Several pages ago, I wrote about investigating the lag between cases and deaths and how it had increased over time - which is consistent with more testing so people are getting caught earlier in the cycle. At the time I wrote that, the optimal lag looked to be something like 28 days. But over the past week or two, the correlation between deaths and cases 28 days earlier weakened considerably and now the optimal lag seems to be more like 35 days. Which seems a bit implausibly long to me - sure, it takes awhile to go from infection to death, but over a month? It also kind of feels like the correlation is kind of running away - if the lag keeps increasing by a week every 7 days or so it'll just never catch up.

I don't know. As I said above, I don't think this weekend is going to tell us anything. And at least early next week is probably also not going to tell us anything because one or two days of high death numbers could just be catch-up from the weekend (assuming the weekend numbers are low, of course - I mean, if 1,000 deaths get reported tomorrow, on a Saturday that's also a national holiday, with L.A. county not reporting anything, sure, THAT will tell us something). If all of this is going to lead to exponential growth in deaths, just with some lag, I think it'll show up by the week of July 13-17 (Tuesday July 14th would likely be the peak day that week). But even if we do start to see growing numbers of deaths, I don't think we'll see death numbers get as bad as they were in April, but I really don't know.
   6461. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: July 03, 2020 at 11:56 PM (#5960949)
That said, I don't think there's much, if any, more testing capacity today than there was, say, 10 days ago, so the jump from 35,000-ish per day to 57,000 per day or whatever is probably real.

FWIW, testing has increased steadily even in recent weeks. Per the COVID Tracking Project, for the Friday-to-Friday weeks ending in:

6/12/20: 3.24 million tests
6/19/20: 3.47 million
6/26/20: 3.80 million
7/3/20: 4.40 million (not sure if the holiday weekend had an accelerating effect here but usually things lag on holidays, rather than coming in quicker)
   6462. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 03, 2020 at 11:59 PM (#5960950)
Thanks, Eric. That's a bigger increase than I expected.
   6463. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 04, 2020 at 12:12 AM (#5960952)
This trend of younger folks catching covid19 in big numbers isn't great for fall college plans. Maybe the students will be willing to live with it, but the faculty must include plenty of people who shouldn't be risking it (people 50-70, with the risk factor conditions).


Puck, There are going to be some faculty who have no choice, Ian Bogost wrote about in Georgia. There absolutely will be pressure on faculty in at least some public and private institutions.
that said, I just received an email from a colleague here in Houston who is reconsidering his choice to teach f2f. He's in his 60s but he is, as most of us are, a dedicated teacher who passionately believes in the value of f2f meetings. The problem is, we won't have anything like that, and the protocols made it easier for me to make my decision -- that and the fact that I expected this peak since May because I read the Children's Hospital of Philly and Royal College of Medicine studies.

The same administrators who have been pushing the resistant to go on line because it's "just as good" now want faculty in the classroom because it's obviously so much better. Neither argument has anything to do with educational quality; they're both driven by revenue concerns.

K-12 is a harder issue. I don't think distance ed at lower levels is of much value, and children at home need parents at home. But teachers come and go (I was told about 20 years ago that the average shelf-life of a teacher is 5 years), and they shew younger. There aren't any good answers, and I don't think most K-12 systems have given any answer they can't reverse.
   6464. BrianBrianson Posted: July 04, 2020 at 01:21 AM (#5960954)
Please do not put words in mouth. What I said was that by your logic of assuming the same per capita infection as UK/Spain/Italy


It's very ironic to try to assert for the umpteenth time I said something I obviously have not said right after saying "please do not put words in my mouth".

Undercounting today in Western Europe is probably pretty low, but it was ~50% or more in March , especially before it was recognised what was happening in nursing homes (which the Iranian government report suggested was a big part of their problem). So there's some issue of who is and who isn't reconning their numbers, and how?for instance, a mid-march article suggesting it was ~75% in Italy
   6465. BrianBrianson Posted: July 04, 2020 at 01:30 AM (#5960955)
K-12 is a harder issue. I don't think distance ed at lower levels is of much value, and children at home need parents at home. But teachers come and go (I was told about 20 years ago that the average shelf-life of a teacher is 5 years), and they shew younger. There aren't any good answers, and I don't think most K-12 systems have given any answer they can't reverse.


K-12 is a big spread, but so far the two "analyse the impact of countermeasures" articles I've seen have both said school closings had a negligible effect, and you'll have a lot more data from Europe and such as our schools have largely been open a long time now.

This weighs heavily in my mind when thinking about retrospective analyses because if it turned out school closings were critical and we hadn't done them, I suspect (but can't prove) that a lot of people would be suggesting it had been obvious all along and how could the experts have been so stupid, in a way that would parallel some of the mask discussions or travel ban discussions or whatever.

But ... I have no answers. Only questions.
   6466. Hank Gillette Posted: July 04, 2020 at 01:50 AM (#5960956)
Several pages ago, I wrote about investigating the lag between cases and deaths and how it had increased over time - which is consistent with more testing so people are getting caught earlier in the cycle. At the time I wrote that, the optimal lag looked to be something like 28 days. But over the past week or two, the correlation between deaths and cases 28 days earlier weakened considerably and now the optimal lag seems to be more like 35 days.


Considering that early on, only people with clear symptoms were getting tested (and even many with symptoms could not get tested), it makes sense that the lag would increase. I assume that many people getting tested now (in the areas where testing is not in short supply) are asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic which would indicate either a mild case or a longer period before getting the symptoms that would have gotten them tested two or three months ago. If we had enough testing, doctors might be able to get a better estimate of how long between infection and death (assuming the worst outcome).

The NY Times had an article that gave explanations that were much the same as what you listed. I don’t know that treatment has improved, per se, but the article mentioned that some treatments were more effective when given early in the course of the disease, which makes those leaders who ask for less testing responsible for unneeded deaths.

In other news, Kimberly Guilfoyle, a top fundraiser in the Trump campaign, and Donald Trump Junior’s current squeeze, has tested positive for COVID-19.
   6467. Hank Gillette Posted: July 04, 2020 at 01:56 AM (#5960957)
This trend of younger folks catching covid19 in big numbers isn't great for fall college plans. Maybe the students will be willing to live with it, but the faculty must include plenty of people who shouldn't be risking it (people 50-70, with the risk factor conditions).


The NY Times had an article talking about this. A lot of the colleges and universities are being real dicks about this. One school was only allowing teachers who were over 65 or having one of seven specific risk factors to opt-out of face to face instruction. It’s still one or two months before colleges start their fall term, and that is an eternity with this pandemic. It’s pretty likely that some things will change before then.

I hestitate to mention this, but the New York Times is currently offering a year’s online subscription for $52, which is a good deal compared to their normal rate of about $15 a month.
   6468. puck Posted: July 04, 2020 at 01:56 AM (#5960958)
Puck, There are going to be some faculty who have no choice, Ian Bogost wrote about in Georgia. There absolutely will be pressure on faculty in at least some public and private institutions.


Yeah, pretty crappy for the faculty. It's probably not easy to quit--with universities facing the same thing, there's probably not a lot of hiring going on...and changing jobs often means changing cities as well. So instead you get to risk your health.
   6469. Hank Gillette Posted: July 04, 2020 at 01:57 AM (#5960959)
But ... I have no answers. Only questions.


It’s the people who have answers but no questions that scare me.
   6470. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 04, 2020 at 01:58 AM (#5960960)
Only one way to see if those findings hold up with the demographic shift in patients; glad I won't be part of it.
   6471. PreservedFish Posted: July 04, 2020 at 07:00 AM (#5960963)
   6472. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: July 04, 2020 at 07:29 AM (#5960964)
Biden has a good chance of winning.

He may well disprove the old political saw, "You can't beat somebody with nobody."
   6473. McCoy Posted: July 04, 2020 at 07:56 AM (#5960965)
A .37 correlation? That’s not much.
   6474. PreservedFish Posted: July 04, 2020 at 10:14 AM (#5960974)
True. Sloppy characterization on my part.
   6475. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: July 04, 2020 at 11:43 AM (#5960991)
A .37 correlation? That’s not much.

.37 is pretty good for a single-factor regression in a problem as complicated as the spread of a pandemic.
   6476. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: July 04, 2020 at 12:10 PM (#5960996)
In other news, Kimberly Guilfoyle, a top fundraiser in the Trump campaign, and Donald Trump Junior’s current squeeze, has tested positive for COVID-19.

And millions are thinking, "Gettttiiing closer! Feelin' sick yet, Donnie...?!"

It’s still one or two months before colleges start their fall term, and that is an eternity with this pandemic. It’s pretty likely that some things will change before then.

My wife teaches at the other end of the spectrum: K-2. Nobody has any idea what's going on, or even if schools will re-open in the fall (this is upstate NY).

I hesitate to mention this, but the New York Times is currently offering a year’s online subscription for $52

I will not hesitate to mention I'd rather set $52 on fire than spend it on the NYT.

Strong correlation between restaurant dining (as measured by in-person credit card spending) and disease spread.

The wife and I have already turned down three invites to go to dinner this weekend. Nope. Not until there's a vaccine, folks (and maybe not even then).
   6477. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 04, 2020 at 12:27 PM (#5960998)

Yeah, pretty crappy for the faculty. It's probably not easy to quit--with universities facing the same thing, there's probably not a lot of hiring going on...and changing jobs often means changing cities as well. So instead you get to risk your health.


I at least have the good fortune of being on sabbatical for the next year.
   6478. Ron J Posted: July 04, 2020 at 12:43 PM (#5961003)
#6476 I've gone to a family dinner (nice steakhouse got permission to convert part of their parking lot to a patio) and eaten out at my local pub. Patio again. Well distanced. Good mask discipline from the staff. Electronic menus (a nice touch I thought)

All in all I'd rate my dining experiences as roughly as risky as grocery shopping or food delivery.

On the other hand I do see a fair amount of worrisome behaviour from patrons. Basically people not staying at their tables and not staying masked as they get together in fair sized groups. So I only go off peak time and make sure my table is far away from the spots they tend to congregate.
   6479. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 04, 2020 at 12:47 PM (#5961004)
In other news, Kimberly Guilfoyle, a top fundraiser in the Trump campaign, and Donald Trump Junior’s current squeeze, has tested positive for COVID-19.
She did attend the rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, last month. Several campaign staff and Secret Service personnel have tested positive for the coronavirus since that rally. Herman Cain, the former Republican presidential hopeful who was also at the rally, was hospitalized with the coronavirus on Wednesday.

Although Guilfoyle may not have had direct contact with the president in recent days, she was around a lot of his supporters. Guilfoyle had not traveled on Air Force One as she and Trump Jr. were in the upper Plains region hosting fundraisers over the past few days. Guilfoyle has “been with a lot of the campaign donors” recently, a source tells CNN. She was at an event in Montana that lasted from Tuesday until Thursday and another one in South Dakota from Thursday to Friday. Sources tell CNN Guilfoyle was not seen wearing a mask at either of the events.
link
   6480. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 04, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5961007)
So we know SdeB is not at a public U in Texas, where a no-sabbatical policy is written into the state constitution.
   6481. Eudoxus Posted: July 04, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5961012)
Puck, There are going to be some faculty who have no choice, Ian Bogost wrote about in Georgia. There absolutely will be pressure on faculty in at least some public and private institutions.


I'm currently scheduled to teach my undergrad classes in the fall in what my institution is calling "hybrid" mode, which basically means half of the content online (probably asynchronous recorded lectures) and half face to face. The face to face half I'm hoping to do outdoors.

But I'm also increasingly skeptical that there's going to be any non-online teaching happening here in the fall. If things stay anything like what they've been recently, I'm going to unilaterally move my classes online. The odds that anyone in the administration finds out are low. And in any case, as far as I can tell it's always been up to me what the details of the meeting format of my classes are.
   6482. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 04, 2020 at 01:40 PM (#5961014)
Eudoxus -- what do you see as the likelihood of a football season (which I've always thought one of the drivers of on-campus sessions in TX?
   6483. Tony S Posted: July 04, 2020 at 01:44 PM (#5961015)
   6484. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 04, 2020 at 03:36 PM (#5961031)
11,458 new cases in Florida today. Celebrating the 4th with a new record
   6485. Eudoxus Posted: July 04, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5961034)
Eudoxus -- what do you see as the likelihood of a football season (which I've always thought one of the drivers of on-campus sessions in TX?

I have no inside scoop on the football plans, but I have to believe they'll move heaven and earth to make some kind of football happen. The financial incentives to keep up the brand loyalty are just too strong. Maybe some form of football in the stadium with no audience with all the surrounding parking lot decked out with giant video screens and available for socially distanced tailgating?
   6486. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 04, 2020 at 04:38 PM (#5961039)
Maybe some form of football in the stadium with no audience*

* Luxury suites excepted
   6487. Srul Itza Posted: July 04, 2020 at 06:30 PM (#5961051)
I have eaten out three times in the past month. But these are all high-end establishments -- excellent mask discipline by staff; tables reasonably far apart; and younger, foolish crowd thinned out by the prices. Of course, it also helps to be in the State with the lowest per capita infection rate in the country.
   6488. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 04, 2020 at 09:08 PM (#5961083)
I have to think major college football will do everything they can to play. Maybe conference games only. Maybe no fans. No bowls. No playoffs.
   6489. Hank Gillette Posted: July 05, 2020 at 02:03 AM (#5961123)
I have to think major college football will do everything they can to play.


I can’t think of a better major sport for spreading the virus. All those linemen lined up face to face then colliding violently and breathing hard. Tackling runners and both going down in a close embrace, breathing hard. Running backs plunging through the line leading to pileups with six to ten players in a big heap, with everyone breathing hard. I really see no way that this can be done safely, since scores of college teams are not going to be in a bubble.
   6490. Hank Gillette Posted: July 05, 2020 at 02:04 AM (#5961124)
I will not hesitate to mention I'd rather set $52 on fire than spend it on the NYT.


It’s not an either-or situation.
   6491. gef, talking mongoose & vexatious litigant Posted: July 05, 2020 at 09:35 AM (#5961140)
I will not hesitate to mention I'd rather set $52 on fire than spend it on the NYT.


I like newspapers that don't pay staffers to help lie the U.S. into war.
   6492. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 05, 2020 at 10:03 AM (#5961141)
This trend of younger folks catching covid19 in big numbers isn't great for fall college plans. Maybe the students will be willing to live with it, but the faculty must include plenty of people who shouldn't be risking it (people 50-70, with the risk factor conditions).
My dad is semi-retired faculty, meaning he's officially retired but still teaches when his department has a need, which they always do. He and pretty much everyone he knows who's in the same position have said that they won't be teaching anymore, which has suddenly put a strain on a bunch of departments that have long been relying on retired faculty working as adjuncts. The university is also increasing the number of classes taught so they can decrease class size, which just makes the problem worse.
   6493. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 05, 2020 at 10:26 AM (#5961143)
All those linemen lined up face to face then colliding violently and breathing hard. Tackling runners and both going down in a close embrace, breathing hard. Running backs plunging through the line leading to pileups with six to ten players in a big heap, with everyone breathing hard.
Do you have a side gig writing romance novels?
   6494. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 05, 2020 at 11:56 AM (#5961150)
The university is also increasing the number of classes taught so they can decrease class size, which just makes the problem worse.


Which is something we're not doing and never will until we become the first college to win the lottery. We just lose faculty and don't replace them.
   6495. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 05, 2020 at 12:21 PM (#5961154)
“Now we have tested almost 40m people. By so doing, we show cases, 99% of which are totally harmless. Results that no other country can show because no other country has the testing that we have, not in terms of the numbers or in terms of quality.”


Three guesses, first two don't count.
   6496. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 05, 2020 at 12:40 PM (#5961158)
I like newspapers that don't pay staffers to help lie the U.S. into war.

ding ding ding
   6497. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 05, 2020 at 01:36 PM (#5961166)
My hometown in the news!

July 5, 2020 at 10:57 AM CDT - Updated July 5 at 10:59 AM
LAKE CHARLES, La. (KPLC) - In a new report from a New Orleans-area investigative reporter, Lake Charles showed the most new positive cases per capita in the United States last week.

According to Fox 8′s Lee Zurik, who has been tracking COVID-19 data since the pandemic struck, the Lake Charles metropolitan tops the list of new positive cases per capita with 406 new cases per 100,000 residents over the last week.
   6498. Tony S Posted: July 05, 2020 at 01:38 PM (#5961169)

If confederate statues could get COVID, our national response to the pandemic would be swift, complete, and effective.
   6499. Tony S Posted: July 05, 2020 at 02:06 PM (#5961178)
Sign o' the times.


You've got to be a certain level of subhuman to do this:

“Do you know how hard it is to work a summer rush in a face mask? With a line of customers to the door, some waiting outside, online orders dinging on a tablet, the phone ringing off the hook — and then have a customer throw a temper tantrum in the store calling the girls ‘paranoid’ or ‘anti-American’ or even worse – CUSS AT THEM! (Does it feel good to make a 16 year old girl cry in the bathroom? Or sob on her way home from work? Does that make you feel better about Covid? How would you feel if someone did this to your child?)” Mootown Creamery wrote.
   6500. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 05, 2020 at 02:21 PM (#5961181)
6499 -- that there's a Patriot, yee-haw!
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