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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 8859 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   6501. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 05, 2020 at 02:47 PM (#5961186)
flip
   6502. BrianBrianson Posted: July 05, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5961199)
In fairness, j'aime bien cussé. Really, they're the only French words I've learned, les Sacres.
   6503. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 05, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5961217)
President Donald Trump will be holding an outdoor rally in New Hampshire next weekend, his campaign announced on Sunday. After recent events hosted by the president in which face masks were markedly absent, this time the campaign said face masks will be handed out and their use will be “strongly encouraged” among those who attend. “There will be ample access to hand sanitizer and all attendees will be provided a face mask that they are strongly encouraged to wear,” the campaign said in a news release. Before his rally in Tulsa last month, Trump had notably refused to endorse the use of face masks. “I recommend people do what they want,” he said.
...
Face masks were few and far between on Friday when Trump addressed a crowd of supporters at Mount Rushmore. There also seemed to be no effort to socially distance any of the attendees. The next day at the White House, few who attended an Independence Day celebration were wearing masks either.

link
   6504. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 05, 2020 at 10:15 PM (#5961227)
Nick Cordero, a Broadway actor who starred in hits like Rock of Ages and Waitress, died on Sunday of complications from covid-19. The 41-year-old had been battling the virus since March.
...
Cordero was hospitalized with covid-19 at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles in March and was in the ICU for more than 90 days. He underwent a leg amputation in April; he was also put into a medically induced coma, which he woke up from in mid-May, and was waiting for a double lung transplant when he died.
link
   6505. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 05, 2020 at 10:49 PM (#5961229)
Nick Cordero, a Broadway actor who starred in hits like Rock of Ages and Waitress, died on Sunday of complications from covid-19. The 41-year-old had been battling the virus since March.


####, that's tough. So much for my comment last page about a lag between new cases and new deaths of a month seeming too long. The second half of July and August could be really, really ugly. And, of course, condolences to his friends and family. Just awful!
   6506. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 05, 2020 at 11:34 PM (#5961230)
Kiko --

In an interview with CBS This Morning's Gayle King in late April, fitness trainer Amanda Kloots gave details about husband Nick Cordero's health after he contracted the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The Broadway actor was put on a ventilator and had his right leg amputated due to complications with being connected to an extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) machine. He's been hospitalized for three months now, but is out of a coma and is COVID-19 negative, which is good news. The not-so-good news, Kloots said in an update with King, is that he most likely will need a double lung transplant.


Leaves behind a wife and 1 year old.

oops: coke to never forget; should have read up.
   6507. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 06, 2020 at 01:37 AM (#5961233)
Ten out of the 12 hospitals in Texas' Rio Grande Valley are now full

which makes outsourcing from Houston a little harder when The Valley is doing the same
   6508. Egregious Hidden Genitals (CoB). Posted: July 06, 2020 at 02:09 AM (#5961237)
They're just embers people ... and we've learned how to put out the flames.
   6509. baxter Posted: July 06, 2020 at 06:47 AM (#5961241)
From "The Guardian" available on Yahoo.com:

Think a 'mild' case of Covid-19 doesn’t sound so bad? Think again
by Adrienne Matei

https://www.yahoo.com/news/think-mild-case-covid-19-051726849.html
   6510. puck Posted: July 06, 2020 at 10:10 AM (#5961258)
Think a 'mild' case of Covid-19 doesn’t sound so bad? Think again


A big thing there is in whatever language the WHO is speaking there (medical, epidemiological), "mild" means (IIRC) no ICU or oxygen. So yeah, it includes a whole lot of other symptoms where most people would be sicker than they've ever been.
   6511. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 06, 2020 at 10:28 AM (#5961261)
Apologies if posted earlier, but this is a good article on the challenges of doing medical studies while a pandemic is going on.
   6512. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 06, 2020 at 11:47 AM (#5961288)
Obviously, it's not the actual number, but Worldometers just went over 3,000,000 total cases in the U.S. We're probably about a week away from the Worldometers number being 1% of the total U.S. population (or 10,000 per million as Worldometers scales things). U.S. deaths per million went over 400 (0.04%) over the weekend. The real numbers are probably more like 6-7% of the total population and 500-600 per million dead or something like that.
   6513. baxter Posted: July 06, 2020 at 01:17 PM (#5961298)
From the Washington Post available through MSN:

Scientists urge WHO to address airborne spread of coronavirus
by James McAuley, Emily Rauhala
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/scientists-urge-who-to-address-airborne-spread-of-coronavirus/ar-BB16mP9K?ocid=msedgntp

Also, there is a "Business Insider" story about transmission of COVID from one person to another when the people did not cross paths but use the same elevator at different times.

From the article: According to a new CDC study, the downstairs neighbor "likely became infected by using the elevator in the building" after the asymptomatic carrier had ridden it, the study authors wrote. They think transmission likely occurred when the neighbor touched surfaces and buttons in the elevator.
   6514. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 06, 2020 at 01:36 PM (#5961302)
A new large-scale serological study out of Spain. Overall about 5% of the Spanish population appears to have antibodies to the coronavirus, ranging from 10-11% in the Madrid area to 3% in outlying areas.
   6515. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 06, 2020 at 01:59 PM (#5961303)
All these states had these massive flare-ups said, Oh, crap, we have to reclose things. And so, what we saw in this jobs report was that, yes, if you completely ignore public health, you can rehire a bunch of people and try to restart the economy. But eventually the virus becomes this natural barrier to recovery. A lot of people warned this was going to happen. It should be crystal clear at this point to everybody that life is not going to go back to normal. And as a result, the economy is not going back to normal, no matter how hard Republicans wish it would.
link
   6516. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 06, 2020 at 02:12 PM (#5961304)
Sure, but if you admit reality you're suddenly someone who wants everyone out of work and starving and committing suicide until no one will fall ill.
   6517. Zonk. Person. Man. Camera. TV. Posted: July 06, 2020 at 06:20 PM (#5961349)
Sean Doolittle is really a sharp guy... a good guy...

This answer from him really struck me because as someone who has basically the same background in terms of what the "answer" is on Covid, it hits all the right points.

- There's so much we don't know.
- We should heed things experts have arrived at.
- We ought to consider things beyond individual wants.
   6518. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: July 06, 2020 at 06:20 PM (#5961350)
#### Pete Kozma
   6519. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 06, 2020 at 06:49 PM (#5961353)
I think I'm more impressed with the responses to the tweet of Doolittle's statement, having come to it directly from Chelsea Freeman's tweet on her husband.

   6520. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 06, 2020 at 06:55 PM (#5961354)
Texas Tribune poll suggests that the obvious is slowly sinking in for citizens of the Lone Star

[Texans are] less optimistic about getting activities like social gatherings and sporting events back to normal. While 21% think that we’re already at the point where things can return to normal or will be in the next few weeks, 30% thought that was the case in April. Then, 41% thought things would be back to normal within the next few months; that’s fallen to 22%. Now, most think it will be back to normal in the next year (29%) or in a year or more (26%).
A large majority of voters (65%) say it would be unsafe to send their kids to school right now.


balance that against the indicatons that the poll shows twice as many Texans not taking precautions as in April, when the spread was far less.
   6521. Hank Gillette Posted: July 06, 2020 at 07:01 PM (#5961355)
All those linemen lined up face to face then colliding violently and breathing hard. Tackling runners and both going down in a close embrace, breathing hard. Running backs plunging through the line leading to pileups with six to ten players in a big heap, with everyone breathing hard.

Do you have a side gig writing romance novels?


I would hope that if I was writing erotica, I could do better than that.

Unless I was writing gay S&M erotica, where it might fit in.


   6522. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: July 06, 2020 at 08:30 PM (#5961374)
“I recommend people do what they want,” [Trump] said.

Leadership during a crisis.
   6523. puck Posted: July 06, 2020 at 10:09 PM (#5961390)
FC Dallas was expelled from the MLS tournament, which I've mentioned in other threads. They were reported to have tested twice before the flight left. Then upon arrival at the Disney World resort, the league tests everyone in the party and they are supposed to quarantine in their rooms.

7 players tested positive after arriving in Orlando. There's not a lot detail on how they think it happened, other than the virus wasn't far enough along to have tripped the pre-flight tests.

So, that kinda sucks. There's an incubation period during which the tests don't pick up the virus...how long is it?
   6524. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 06, 2020 at 10:43 PM (#5961391)
incubation is 5-6 days but infection to symptom can be two weeks.
   6525. puck Posted: July 06, 2020 at 10:53 PM (#5961393)
So there's possibly 5-6 days when the test won't pick it up?

Yikes. How is MLB going to do this?

   6526. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 06, 2020 at 11:05 PM (#5961396)
So there's possibly 5-6 days when the test won't pick it up?

Yikes. How is MLB going to do this?
on top of a pile of money, with many beautiful ladies.
   6527. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 07, 2020 at 12:40 AM (#5961405)
So, this is pretty ####### stoopid

The [US] government announced Monday that international students will not be allowed to stay in the country if the institution in which they're enrolled is holding online-only courses this fall, and those failing to comply with the rules will risk deportation.

Students on F-1 and M-1 visas who face such a situation "must depart the country or take other measures, such as transferring to a school with in-person instruction to remain in lawful status," the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency said in a news release.

Those who violate the rules "may face immigration consequences including, but not limited to, the initiation of removal proceedings," the agency said.
   6528. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 07, 2020 at 01:27 AM (#5961408)
you missed the best part:
“The bigger issue is some of these countries have travel restrictions on and they can’t go home, so what do they do then?” Theresa Cardinal Brown, the director of immigration and cross-border policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, told CNN. “It’s a conundrum for a lot of students.”


   6529. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 07, 2020 at 02:19 AM (#5961412)
Theresa Cardinal Brown


Hey, you can't fool me, there's no female cardinals.

Trump's getting good at leaving money on the table. That's what happens with these students, some of whom would rent rooms in cities and towns, all of whom would have spent for food and entertainment. (Think of all the money he lost on MAGA masks.)

International students are increasingly important to universities' survival, but numbers never recovered from the 2016 election.
   6530. Hank Gillette Posted: July 07, 2020 at 03:33 AM (#5961413)
So, that kinda sucks. There's an incubation period during which the tests don't pick up the virus...how long is it?


The question I have is whether someone infected can transmit the disease before they test positive on a test? If so, that really makes controlling things much harder.
   6531. BrianBrianson Posted: July 07, 2020 at 06:00 AM (#5961415)
Well, I went for a COVID test today. I have probably a sinus infection, but some of the symptoms overlap*, so the office was quite insistent I not return without one.

They really stick that Q-tip into your brain, eh? Not gonna lie, I cried.
   6532. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 07, 2020 at 08:48 AM (#5961420)
I guess the answer to the riddle is just "Americans are bad" and I should feel dumb for being a bit confused, but it does confuse me that sports are going in Europe and in the USA there just seems to be so many problems. And schools are going to open/have been open in Europe and in USA it's big old "who knows".

Are Americans and/or American leadership really that much worse than others? Is it truly that simple? Feel free to just tell me "yes" but I'm honestly interested in any other explanations if they happen to exist.
   6533. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 07, 2020 at 08:57 AM (#5961423)
Are Americans and/or American leadership really that much worse than others? Is it truly that simple?


Yes.
   6534. SoSH U at work Posted: July 07, 2020 at 08:59 AM (#5961424)
I'd like to think there's another explanation, but Vlad's answer is the correct one.
   6535. Tony S Posted: July 07, 2020 at 09:13 AM (#5961425)

Trump's having a masks-optional rally in New Hampshire on Saturday, so either (a) his campaign has received conclusive data that the recent protests didn't spread the virus, or (b) he just doesn't care about his own voter base.
   6536. Ron J Posted: July 07, 2020 at 09:18 AM (#5961426)
#6532 Yes, Americans and American leadership did a lousy job so far. Maybe not the top tier -- that's Brazil -- but still impressive.
   6537. BrianBrianson Posted: July 07, 2020 at 09:20 AM (#5961427)
American deaths per capita are still well under France/Italy/Spain/UK/Belgium/etc - there's still a little time to get your act together. Spend it wisely.
   6538. Ron J Posted: July 07, 2020 at 09:36 AM (#5961428)
#6537 Sure. But that's just a variation of Arizona having a much lower death rate than NYC. Luck of the draw as to who got to learn what worked the hard way.

I've been impressed by what I've read on the medical front though. The frontline people made serious efforts to be prepared. I'm very concerned though that the system may collapse under the current load of cases. And while we haven't seen too many disasters in retirement communitie sand the like in the current flare ups, I'm not optimistic.
   6539. Ron J Posted: July 07, 2020 at 09:43 AM (#5961430)
Melbourne in stage 3 lockdown (more than 90% of new cases in Australia reported there. It's not currently bad -- 191 cases yesterday -- and they don't want to see rapid growth)

From 11.59pm on Wednesday 8July, if you live in the Metropolitan Melbourne or Mitchell Shires, you will be unable to leave your home, unless it is for:

Shopping for essentials
Work
Exercise
Medical and care giving
You can’t exercise outside of your shire

That's not exactly hard lockdown (though people are of course encouraged to work from home if at all possible)
   6540. bunyon Posted: July 07, 2020 at 10:02 AM (#5961432)
We're still a long way from the end of COVID and there is plenty of time for places that seem to have their #### together to lose control (again, in places). But the key distinguishing feature of the American response and elsewhere is that pretty much everywhere else the government (and the citizens) have tried to learn from others. We have absolutely not done that in the USA. There is no adaptability at all and the response has been driven by faith and greed more than logic.

Because the federal government and most state governments have decided against enough financial support of the people, the people have to work. So we have to be open. Because we're open, we're going to get a bolus of COVID. Will it be bad? Those on the right say that as you bring the age of cases down, the mortality rate goes down. They say that the mortality rate has been exaggerated. Well, we're going to find out.

It's possible that, in the end, the US will not have more deaths per capita than elsewhere. I wouldn't bet that way, of course, but given the behavior of a wealthy and significant chunk of my fellow citizens, that's where our chips are.


Also, as a concrete example of not learning, my home state, NC, has been sort of middle of the pack. We're not doing great, but we're not a disaster, either. Our policies have been somewhat middle of the road as well. We have a D governor pushing as much as he can for restrictions and who slowed opening when we got a spike. The GOP Council of State (we're gerrymandered out the ass) is pushing today to follow the policies of Texas, Florida and Arizona. I can see the argument for that six weeks ago, but if you can't see that that is an error today, you're either stupid or aren't seeking wisdom.

This dovetails with the attempted expulsion of foreign students. The US has depended on immigrants to push our science and technology to the top. We don't build the A-bomb or land on the moon without immigrants (our two flagship achievements). On a smaller scale, American science loses thousands of important breakthroughs if we don't have immigrants in our labs.

What you see right now is the future of American science and engineering without them. The rest of the world addressed a crisis and has begun a recovery. We're still mired in the muck trying to convince ourselves we like it here.
   6541. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 07, 2020 at 10:05 AM (#5961433)
Are Americans and/or American leadership really that much worse than others? Is it truly that simple? Feel free to just tell me "yes" but I'm honestly interested in any other explanations if they happen to exist.


I don't think so, but small mistakes, occurring early, have outsized effects in this kind of thing. You need to be both lucky and capable to avoid major Covid-19 casualties, but for nations who were neither, the effect seems to be outsized. And until those mistakes are acknowledged to be mistakes, they will continue to be made.

Article from The Atlantic - No technique works if it isn't used, as Larry Niven says. You can have the best diet plan ever conceived, but if you don't follow it, what's the point? You can have world-leading medical care and playbooks for every stage of a pandemic, but someone has to push the button (and others have to avoid blocking the pusher of the button) to start the process.
   6542. PreservedFish Posted: July 07, 2020 at 10:13 AM (#5961434)
It's unclear to me how uniquely awful Americans have been, at least in comparison to our Western European friends. Every once in a while I'll see a photo of Brits crowding a bar or a beach that looks just like a scene from Texas or Florida.
   6543. Ron J Posted: July 07, 2020 at 10:25 AM (#5961436)
#6542 John Apter, chair of the Police Federation for England and Wales, warned that it was "crystal clear" that drunk people cannot observe social distancing.

Britain had a rough time with pub reopening. Loads of fights. Lots of reports of vomiting in the street. It seems like a lot of people were determined to catch up on their drinking. (I guess they had a tougher time getting booze while in lockdown)
   6544. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 07, 2020 at 10:27 AM (#5961438)
It seems like a lot of people were determined to catch up on their drinking. (I guess they had a tougher time getting booze while in lockdown)


Drinking cultures are quite different around the world - I suspect there was no shortage of booze at home in the UK, but the social element of going to a pub (and then to a club, if possible) is certainly a multiplier. As well as a source of hookups.
   6545. RJ in TO Posted: July 07, 2020 at 10:30 AM (#5961439)
Loads of fights. Lots of reports of vomiting in the street.
So basically every Saturday night in the UK.

Also, you can get booze anywhere in the UK, so there's no way there was a problem with shortages at home.
   6546. Ron J Posted: July 07, 2020 at 10:38 AM (#5961440)
#6545 I was puzzled that they seemed so determined to make up for lost time. Maybe it doesn't count as drinking without a punch up at the end?
   6547. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 07, 2020 at 11:03 AM (#5961444)
But that's just a variation of Arizona having a much lower death rate than NYC. Luck of the draw as to who got to learn what worked the hard way.


I don't buy that as a complete reason. NY had plenty of time to learn from Italy and Spain. The whole "If you love your neighborhood bar, go there now" is probably a bigger reason than bad luck. The current spike is because of a failure to learn a lesson for sure, but NY was more than just unlucky.
   6548. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 07, 2020 at 11:10 AM (#5961445)
#6545 I was puzzled that they seemed so determined to make up for lost time. Maybe it doesn't count as drinking without a punch up at the end?


There are all sorts of associated rituals, with fascinating regional variations:

- 'Pre-gaming' the drinking with some early drinks at home, while you wait for the women in the group to get ready
- Arguing over which pub to go to first, and then going to the same one you always go to
- Finding a place to eat (often curry houses), which has an added level of challenge at the present
- Getting into a club after 10pm
- The inevitable intra- and inter-group arguments up to fistfights
- Various members splitting off if they meet up with someone promising
- The battle to find a taxi willing to take your group despite the risk of a cleaning bill (somewhat skewed by Uber's arrival on scene)
- The social media fallout

So glad that I've aged/married out of this particular social expectation.
   6549. Hank Gillette Posted: July 07, 2020 at 11:13 AM (#5961446)
Are Americans and/or American leadership really that much worse than others? Is it truly that simple? Feel free to just tell me "yes" but I'm honestly interested in any other explanations if they happen to exist.


Yes.

Trump abdicated responsibility for leading the fight against COVID-19. It’s f*cking stupid to have 50 different states trying to figure out how to respond to a pandemic. It’s true that the response in Wyoming could be much different from New York or California, but Trump left the states to struggle with obtaining protective equipment, leading them to bid against each other, raising prices. Trump’s excuse was that he was not a “shipping clerk”. Sorry, but that is what the federal government is supposed to do: obtain supplies in a crisis for the nation, and allocate them fairly and based on need. What’s worse, there were reports that the federal government was confiscating shipments of medical supplies that the states had procured, and then distributing them in a non-transparent manner. Maryland bought a large number of tests from South Korea, but did not announce it until they were in the state and safely hidden from the feds.

Trump whined that he was not left with enough equipment by the previous administration. That may be true, but he had three years to bring the medical emergency reserves up to where they should have been, and as far as I can tell, he did not add a single mask to the emergency supply. It’s the second week in July, and we still don’t have enough testing capacity, and Trump and Pence keep lying and saying that we do. We also still have a critical shortage of N95 masks, which are the only ones that can give reasonable protection against the virus. Not only are the completely unobtainable by civilians, but there appears to be a coming shortage for medical personnel in the states that are having rapid increases in new cases and hospitalizations. Trump should have used his emergency powers to ramp up the production of masks, gowns, and other protective equipment. Instead, he ignored the situation. He did order Ford and GM to convert some of the manufacturing capability to make ventilators, but too late to help out New York, and it’s unclear whether other states are going to need the extra ventilators (but they will need masks, gloves, and gowns).

While New York seems to have their situation more or less under control (after devastating losses) states that made only token efforts to shut down and get the population to socially distance themselves, such as Texas, Florida, and Arizona, are finding alarming numbers of new cases, even with the inadequate testing. It’s no coincidence that all three states have Republican governors who Trump encouraged to minimize the danger of the pandemic. Houston was reportedly close to full capacity of their ICU beds a week ago. Their response: stop reporting the numbers and whether they had reached capacity. The death rate has been steadily decreasing, but once the hospitals reach their ICU capicity, that is going to change.

Frankly, Trump appears to be bored with the pandemic, and is openly hoping that it will go away without any action from him. He is more interested in holding rallies (where people are placed close together, with very few wearing masks), because he craves the adulation from crowds more than he wants to do his job. He wants to coerce people into going back to work, even when it is unsafe, hoping for a rebound in the economy that he can tout in his bid for reelection.

I’m 68 years old (which also makes me high risk for dying should I be infected), so I have lived through a number of presidents and remember every one since John F. Kennedy. I have disagreed with many of them, but I have never seen such a dereliction of duty as Donald Trump has shown in the matter of this pandemic. He proved himself unfit for office before that, showing ignorance, incompetence, racism, and corruption, but his inaction in these past few months has caused tens of thousands of Americans to die unnecessarily. It bears pointing out that the administration as a whole has failed, because he has forced out many competent people to be replaced with sycophants and toadies who are loyal to him, but without the qualifications to do the job.

Why yes, I am angry.
   6550. Hank Gillette Posted: July 07, 2020 at 11:15 AM (#5961447)
- Finding a place to eat (often curry houses), which has an added level of challenge at the present


I’m not in the least interested in the drinking rituals, but I do wish we had curry houses here in the states.
   6551. PreservedFish Posted: July 07, 2020 at 11:15 AM (#5961448)
NY was dumb and unlucky and also a victim of national lack of preparedness. Di Blasio told people to go to their favorite bar on March 15th - at that point NYC only had 1,000 identified cases but in reality likely had, what, 100,000 cases or even more? We did not have the testing capacity to even know that NYC was about to be the American epicenter. And bars were shut down like 36 hours later, so that particular comment, as terrible as it was, couldn't have done all that much harm.

To prevent that early and totally unmonitored spread they would have had to do something awesome weeks previous, at which point it would have been difficult to have already learned anything important from Italy, other than the fact that spread outside of Asia was a thing that was happening. Italy only surpassed 1,000 known cases on February 29.

The lawyer that was said to be the "superspreader" that really got the ball rolling in NYC had not visited Italy or China, and may have contracted the virus in Florida, where there was as yet little or zero evidence of community transmission. He first felt ill on February 22 - how many coronavirus tests had been administered nationwide at that point? That's the real failure and that's where a different regime could have plausibly made a big difference. A government that was on top of #### would have caught that guy, and the other guys like him. But hindsight is 20/20. They could've been monitoring literally everyone connected with China and Italy for illness symptoms and still missed that dude.

This isn't to excuse the stupidity of the NY leadership, which likely resulted in thousands of additional deaths, or of Western nations in general. But if you're wondering why NYC instead of Los Angeles or DC (or Berlin), I think the answer is mostly luck and mostly intrinsic factors (density, transportation etc), not local government failures.
   6552. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 07, 2020 at 11:36 AM (#5961450)
And bars were shut down like 36 hours later, so that particular comment, as terrible as it was, couldn't have done all that much harm.

Completely disagree. We are seeing that places like that are close to the worse place when it comes to spread. 1,000 cases when testing was not prevalent and only the sickest were being tested meant that all the asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic were packing the bars.

It was a dumb comment at the time and most thought so. It is probably a major reason for the huge numbers in cases in NYC area.

My company started to work from home a week before March 15th and my area had less than 100 cases and my state was around 100. The lesson to be learned was much earlier than March 15 and the place with the most cases in the US had its mayor encourage everyone to go out and pack the bars.
   6553. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 07, 2020 at 11:39 AM (#5961451)
I’m not in the least interested in the drinking rituals, but I do wish we had curry houses here in the states.


They are wonderful places, and particularly for people in their late teens/20s who can really pack away a big meal (soaking up the booze is a major plus), and where the value proposition is just outstanding. Brick Lane in London isn't really Indian food (mostly Bangladeshi owners), but it's still a place to be fed very well for very little, especially by London standards.

Also gives me an excuse to link to Going for an English
   6554. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 07, 2020 at 11:43 AM (#5961452)
Also, reporting that Jair Bolsonaro has tested positive for Covid-19. The ironies, they continue to compound.
   6555. PreservedFish Posted: July 07, 2020 at 11:46 AM (#5961454)
Not going to defend Di Blasio's comment. It was awful then, and in hindsight it's basically murderous. But to identify it as a "major reason" for the spread in NYC, you'd have to prove that his comment actually inspired tons of people to go out to bars, which I find doubtful. I think NYC was already ###### by that point.
   6556. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 07, 2020 at 11:55 AM (#5961457)
I just take issue with the "bad luck" that gets tossed around. Before Italy and Spain we saw what was happening in China. While I completely agree that we had no federal leadership on this once it hit Washington state we should have started to think about shutting things down. We were screening people in our airports on February 2nd so we knew pretty damn early that once here we were in for trouble.

New York did not learn the early lessons and it paid for it. The southern states and Arizona did not learn from the early lessons and will pay for it. It's the same thing, an arrogance of "Well that was there, not here".

That type of attitude is prevalent at all corners of the world and the people live through it 1st always think the 2nd people should have known better. And the 2nd people think the 3rd should have known better etc all the way down to the bottom of the list. Each group thinks they are unique and have their reasons why they were different when their not. NYC failed to learn their lesson, the south failed to learn their lesson instead of pointing fingers and back slapping for where both groups perceived they did better "We handled it better after we found it", "We protected the most vulnerable" we need to quit being arrogant and plan for the 2nd wave and maybe we can prevent it.

Seeing Gov. Andrew Cuomo say #### like "The tables have turned." and taking a political jab instead of sympathy or empathy is disgusting.
   6557. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 07, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5961460)
But to identify it as a "major reason" for the spread in NYC, you'd have to prove that his comment actually inspired tons of people to go out to bars, which I find doubtful. I think NYC was already ###### by that point.


There were photo's of packed bars and other anecdotal evidence. It is the same proof that seems to work for finding people in other states as being idiots.

Also, just before the words "major reason" was the word probably. I am making conjecture here based on what we know about the spread of the virus.
   6558. Ron J Posted: July 07, 2020 at 12:07 PM (#5961464)
#6556 Sure, NYC could have done better. But since it didn't it served as a lab for places like Texas etc (IE the places where it's now spreading).

The US has always been terrible at prevention and pretty good at treatment and this is another case in point.

Swap Texas and New York in terms of timelines and Texas would have the higher death rates -- and cases would almost certainly be surging in New York now.
   6559. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 07, 2020 at 12:12 PM (#5961466)
Swap Texas and New York in terms of timelines and Texas would have the higher death rates -- and cases would almost certainly be surging in New York now.


100% agree. I am not trying to point fingers and say someone did it better than someone else. The higher death rate is for sure more of a product of "It happened here first".

I do think some people have handled it poorly and some have handled it well, but I put both NY and Texas as handled it poorly.

   6560. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 07, 2020 at 12:13 PM (#5961468)
Also, reporting that Jair Bolsonaro has tested positive for Covid-19. The ironies, they continue to compound.
no. it's only ironic if he dies.
   6561. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 07, 2020 at 12:14 PM (#5961469)
boop
   6562. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 07, 2020 at 12:15 PM (#5961470)
Seeing Gov. Andrew Cuomo say #### like "The tables have turned." and taking a political jab instead of sympathy or empathy is disgusting.
yes, andrew cuomo is a miserable ####. anyone familiar with his "politics" from before this already knew that.

it is only in comparison to king shitlord that he was able to appear to be anything other than a sniveling piece of garbage.
   6563. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 07, 2020 at 12:18 PM (#5961471)
Not going to defend Di Blasio's comment. It was awful then, and in hindsight it's basically murderous. But to identify it as a "major reason" for the spread in NYC, you'd have to prove that his comment actually inspired tons of people to go out to bars, which I find doubtful. I think NYC was already ###### by that point.

"this wildly irresponsible comment wasn't literally murder": 2020.
   6564. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 07, 2020 at 12:24 PM (#5961475)
yes, andrew cuomo is a miserable ####. anyone familiar with his "politics" from before this already knew that.


I don't follow NY politics, so it was new to me. If that is just who he is it is very unfortunate for the people of his state.
   6565. PreservedFish Posted: July 07, 2020 at 12:34 PM (#5961478)
Biscuit Pants 6556: Fair points. When I say "NYC had bad luck" I suppose I mean that within the context of the national response in Feb-March.
   6566. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 07, 2020 at 12:39 PM (#5961480)
Fair points. When I say "NYC had bad luck" I suppose I mean that within the context of the national response in Feb-March.


Which of coarse is probably what I should have assumed. This board is not filled with the typical person and I may have been projecting a bit.
   6567. Obo Posted: July 07, 2020 at 12:54 PM (#5961487)
Regarding Cuomo, the resignation of Andy Byford, the highly-capable and highly-visible head of NYC's subways, was largely blamed on clashes with Cuomo. The Governor does not like sharing the spotlight.
   6568. Ron J Posted: July 07, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5961490)
#6560 I loathe Bolsonaro, but I'd certainly settle for sick as hell for a couple of months.
   6569. PreservedFish Posted: July 07, 2020 at 01:13 PM (#5961496)
Did Boris Johnson's bout with COVID-19 substantially change or improve the government reaction in the UK? He notably flip-flopped from downplaying the virus to taking it seriously.
   6570. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 07, 2020 at 01:15 PM (#5961497)
Did Boris Johnson's bout with COVID-19 substantially change or improve the government reaction in the UK?


Didn't he come out and focus on losing weight after his bout? or was that before.
   6571. Hank Gillette Posted: July 07, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5961499)
Also, reporting that Jair Bolsonaro has tested positive for Covid-19. The ironies, they continue to compound.


This could be his “come to Jesus” moment, and if he survives he may take COVID-19 seriously.

I don’t know what it would take to get Trump on board. Having his son’s girlfriend being infected is probably not enough. It would take Ivanka catching it, or the stable genius himself, and even then if he lived he’d probably say that people just have to tough it out the way he did.
   6572. PreservedFish Posted: July 07, 2020 at 01:25 PM (#5961502)
Didn't he come out and focus on losing weight after his bout? or was that before.


Yes. He now supports anti-obesity measures like sugar taxes. But I don't know if that's actually changed anything. He's the PM, but he's just one guy, and his backers probably don't share his newfound enthusiasm for the nanny state. Not that a soda tax is going to make a dramatic overnight difference in COVID outcomes, anyway.
   6573. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 07, 2020 at 01:28 PM (#5961504)
It would take Ivanka catching it, or the stable genius himself, and even then if he lived he’d probably say that people just have to tough it out the way he did.

I would honestly think that any sitting president would be getting convalescent plasma every two weeks or so. So I guess I am not sure what it would take for him to change his thinking on this.
   6574. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 07, 2020 at 01:28 PM (#5961505)
This could be his “come to Jesus” moment, and if he survives he may take COVID-19 seriously.


His press conference suggested not, sadly.

Did Boris Johnson's bout with COVID-19 substantially change or improve the government reaction in the UK?


Weirdly, it seems maybe yes? Some reporting suggests that it made Johnson much more cautious about allowing re-opening, and slowed the process of easing lockdown measures. That had some weird effects around communication at times.
   6575. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 07, 2020 at 01:31 PM (#5961507)
Sure, NYC could have done better. But since it didn't it served as a lab for places like Texas etc (IE the places where it's now spreading).


And we're emulating some of it, thank you very much.

#6532 Yes, Americans and American leadership did a lousy job so far. Maybe not the top tier -- that's Brazil -- but still impressive.


Brazil is trump without the independent resources of the US to save his ass.

Trump's having a masks-optional rally in New Hampshire on Saturday,


But he's also selling masks, so he belatedly realized how much money he passed up.

Didn't [BoJo]come out and focus on losing weight after his bout?


Are he and Joe West the same person?
   6576. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 07, 2020 at 01:59 PM (#5961515)
Bolsonaro’s press secretary, energy minister, and national security adviser have all previously been diagnosed with the disease. On Saturday, the president attended what appeared to be a chummy and maskless Fourth of July party hosted by the U.S. ambassador.
...
he was hospitalized early last year with symptoms of pneumonia related to a stab wound he received during his presidential campaign
...
Speaking a few feet away from journalists on Tuesday, and at one point removing his mask so reporters could see his face, Bolsonaro said he was feeling “fine,”

anything less than death is insufficient.
   6577. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 07, 2020 at 02:21 PM (#5961519)
And bars were shut down like 36 hours later, so that particular comment, as terrible as it was, couldn't have done all that much harm.
Are we really going to pretend that the bar comment was the only thing contributing to the problems in NYC? How about not disinfecting the subway, cutting back service so trains were still packed during rush hour, and essential workers couldn’t socially distance? Letting the homeless take over the subways as they fled the shelters? Requiring nursing homes to admit covid-19 positive patients? The result speaks for itself - a death rate far above the national average, as much as 10 times higher than the states some here are fixated on. Not to mention credit for seeding ~ two-thirds of the outbreaks elsewhere.
   6578. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: July 07, 2020 at 02:47 PM (#5961526)
   6579. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 07, 2020 at 03:00 PM (#5961532)
better late than totally spineless
   6580. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: July 07, 2020 at 03:09 PM (#5961534)
6579--Is that in reference to DeWine? Asking because that guy is getting totally crushed from every direction. His own party is outraged that he has been slow to re-open state while Dems who have actually said good things about him until his Health person, Dr Acton resigned. They thought DeWine didn't do enough to support Dr Acton who was getting harrassed online.
   6581. PreservedFish Posted: July 07, 2020 at 03:21 PM (#5961537)
Clapper, I've already acknowledged many times, including on this page, that local gov't decisions in NY likely caused thousands of deaths. What else do you want? Not every comment can be comprehensive.
   6582. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 07, 2020 at 03:28 PM (#5961540)
Not every comment can be comprehensive.

Can you expand on this?
   6583. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 07, 2020 at 03:30 PM (#5961542)
6579--Is that in reference to DeWine? Asking because that guy is getting totally crushed from every direction. His own party is outraged that he has been slow to re-open state while Dems who have actually said good things about him until his Health person, Dr Acton resigned. They thought DeWine didn't do enough to support Dr Acton who was getting harrassed online.
never forget that republican activists have a long and continuing history of threatening and murdering healthcare workers.
   6584. Red Menace Posted: July 07, 2020 at 03:49 PM (#5961545)
until his Health person, Dr Acton resigned. They thought DeWine didn't do enough to support Dr Acton who was getting harrassed online.


Not just online. They were protesting outside her house. And 6583 adds ominous context.
   6585. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 07, 2020 at 03:50 PM (#5961546)
Clapper, I've already acknowledged many times, including on this page, that local gov't decisions in NY likely caused thousands of deaths. What else do you want? Not every comment can be comprehensive.
Come on, you know he only makes that comment (again and again and again) for the purpose of whatabouting.
   6586. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 07, 2020 at 03:51 PM (#5961547)
Indians Keep Franmil Reyes Away From Camp For Partying Without A Mask:
The Cleveland Indians are keeping outfielder Franmil Reyes away from training camp after they spotted him on social media attending a weekend holiday party without wearing a mask. Manager Terry Francona said Reyes is not in any trouble with the team. But by not practicing social distancing or wearing a mask he exposed himself -- and his teammates -- to infection, and the team is being overly cautious.

Francona said Reyes, who was traded to Cleveland last season from San Diego, will have to be retested for the virus "when it's appropriate."

"He's not in the penalty box," Francona said. "It's just the way we have to operate right now. So, hopefully we'll see him soon."
Partying with people outside his bubble seems like a significant problem, mask or not. Harder to keep players healthy if they are going to engage in such activities. The 2020 plan could work, but I think players, and those with access to them, will have to take it more seriously than Reyes apparently did.
   6587. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 07, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5961548)
Yeah, it's about DeWine. Abbott, too, is getting kicked from every direction. One recent guess is that he'll pull the plug on the in-person convention just to undercut the uprising against him for the mask order and asking that bars close -- I can't say shutting them because some of his own county judges are looking the other way with the support of the militias that he's always courted.

Both Abbott and DeWine had pretty good first responses (iirc), but blew it this time around because of pressure from their parties.

   6588. SoSH U at work Posted: July 07, 2020 at 04:19 PM (#5961555)
Yeah, it's about DeWine.


Well, as the father of an Ohio college student, I don't think that statement was remotely close to accurate. And I certainly wasn't a DeWine supporter before COVID-19.

   6589. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 07, 2020 at 04:27 PM (#5961559)
elaborate?
   6590. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 07, 2020 at 04:51 PM (#5961563)
an Ohio college student
An Ohio college student, or The Ohio college student?
   6591. SoSH U at work Posted: July 07, 2020 at 04:52 PM (#5961564)

elaborate?


On March 4, DeWine shut down a fitness expo planned for Columbus expected to attract 60,000 people. The state had no reported cases at the time.

I picked up my daughter from school on March 14, the day before DeBlasio's "Drink Up, Johnny," instruction. Ohio had, I think, 3 cases when he shut down all education facilities.

He hired Acton to be his state health department director because she had experience in public health, to be best prepared for a pandemic.

They weren't as quick to reopen as Texas or Florida or most anywhere else outside the NE corridor. Whatever advantage Texas has in response to the pandemic can only be ascribed to luck.

I'm sure it's possible he could have done more to protect Acton from the misogynistic "open up" hordes, but I'm not sure what it was. He made it clear on multiple times that any ire should be directed his way. When she resigned, it was over his objections.

I don't agree with pretty much any of his other policy objectives, but it's hard to find too much fault here, or to lump him in with Abbott, who only looks good because he's, figuratively speaking, standing next to Patrick.

   6592. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: July 07, 2020 at 04:57 PM (#5961567)
6591--good post. Only thing on Dr Acton is that DeWine could have confronted the state reps and senators who were feeding the frenzy. The governor absolutely said Dr Acton is doing great. What he did not do as the governor and state leader of his party was to tell people in his party to STFU. That is an observation. I am sure that job is super tough in this environment
   6593. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 07, 2020 at 05:02 PM (#5961568)
On Sunday, Iran’s newly elected Parliament, heavily dominated by hard-liners, heckled Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, accusing him of selling out the country by negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal with the United States—a deal that U.S. President Donald Trump has since revoked, resulting in the reimposition of economic sanctions that the deal was beginning to lift in exchange for the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program. On Monday, the parliamentarians called President Hassan Rouhani for harsh questions about the country’s many economic and security issues.
...
It’s a point that the Trump administration, and the Israeli government, should absorb. If they are responsible for the fires and explosions of recent weeks, as part of their “maximum pressure” campaign to disrupt and destabilize the Iranian regime, they should know that the successors to Rouhani and Zarif are not likely to be the Western-leaning young people who have occasionally protested in the streets or the dissident members of the Homeland Cheetahs (if such a group really exists). They are more likely to be the elite military and security forces themselves, whose longtime distrust of the West has been intensified by Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal—and who, if they come to power, will crack down harder on domestic dissent and push faster on a military buildup against the U.S. and its allies.
this is fine.


it seems like israel's stated position re:iran is that the world is only big enough for one of us. iran appears to be readying itself politically to bring that to fruition.
   6594. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 07, 2020 at 05:02 PM (#5961569)
SOSH -- not disagreeing. I write in 6587, "Both Abbott and DeWine had pretty good first responses (iirc), but blew it this time around because of pressure from their parties."

Abbott's more of a clown, but TX is more of a clownshow. (*& I recall Connie Schultz praising DeWine early on)
   6595. Howie Menckel Posted: July 07, 2020 at 05:09 PM (#5961570)
Alex Putterman
@AlexPutterman
Gov. Lamont just said Connectixut recorded zero COVID-19 deaths yesterday, the first day since March that has been the case.
2:00 PM · Jul 7, 2020

....................

NYS reported 9 deaths.

sucks to be a (un)employee at an upstate NYS commercial casino, though.

Cuomo just bounced casinos out of allowing for even 25% capacity - even though NJ Gov Murphy allowed just that in Atlantic City beginning last week (albeit no sitdown dining, booze, or smoking). NYS casinos shuttered indefinitely.

not sure if any of those 4 casinos will survive now, partly because Cuomo doesn't like online gambling.

so Jan-May 2020, NYS casinos got zero in online casino revenues vs $338M for AC casino operators.

NYS casinos produced just under $2M from sports betting Jan to mid-March. AC operators cashed $96M (almost 90% of that from mobile sports betting) in the first 5 months (though only about $12M of it in April/May sports drought).

number of positive test results yesterday in Sullivan County, where a Catskills casino - the nearest one to Manhattan, a mere couple of hours drive away - is located was ...... 1.
   6596. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 07, 2020 at 06:59 PM (#5961596)
I’m not in the least interested in the drinking rituals, but I do wish we had curry houses here in the states.


I wouldn’t mind being able to walk down the road for a kebab, either.
   6597. Laser Man Posted: July 07, 2020 at 09:40 PM (#5961611)
Setting aside New York's actions early in the Coronavirus outbreak, one thing they have done very successfully is reduce their test positivity and infection rates. New York had a 50% positive test rate on April 1, reduced it to ~13% on May 1, down to ~2% on June 1, and now have it down below 1%. Using the numbers on rt.live, New York brought their Rt infection rate down below 0.70 in late April/early May, although it has started to climb back up again recently.

Most of the South and Southwest states are currently over 10% positivity right now - how long will it take them to get to the 1-2% level?
   6598. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 07, 2020 at 09:50 PM (#5961613)
Texas set a record for cases 9,414 cases with Hidalgo Co. prominent among those not reporting) and 85 deaths.
That's a day after crossing 9,000 cases in a day for the first time and tying the record for deaths at 63.

hmmm, Houston Chronicle says TX had 10,028 and over 9,000 hospitalizations.
   6599. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 07, 2020 at 10:32 PM (#5961616)
Quoting myself (#6456):

I'm going to predict that Tuesday, July 7th will be the first day with 1,000 deaths at Worldometers in almost a month due to catch-up from the holiday weekend. Even if true, I think it will take several days beyond that to see if the trend in deaths will have finally started to increase or not.

.... I wouldn't be surprised to see 60,000 cases by July 7th as well.


Final totals for July 7th: 55,442 new cases and 994 deaths.

So, not THAT close to 60,000 new cases (which, in my defense, I didn't predict, just said it wouldn't surprise me). JUST missed on deaths - which is just as well; I'd certainly rather be wrong and be wrong in that direction.

As for "I think it will take several days ... to see if the trend in deaths will ... increase or not", I think that's still true.

Total deaths for the first week of July: 3,887
Total deaths for the last week of June: 4,025

But total deaths for the week of June 25 - July 1: 3,882

As for today, that was the most deaths reported by Worldometers since June 10th (998). Today appears to have seen one-day highs for (at least) Arizona (117), Texas (85), and Mississippi (44). California (118) missed its one-day high by three (April 22nd). That said, I suspect that none of those are legitimate one-day totals; Arizona, for example, had reported just 1 death the previous day.
   6600. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 07, 2020 at 10:34 PM (#5961617)
Using the numbers on rt.live
paid actor.
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