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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 8859 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   6601. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 07, 2020 at 10:36 PM (#5961618)
Total deaths for the first week of July: 3,887
a week which happened to include a multi-day holiday weekend. as we've observed over the last 4 months, reported deaths lag significantly on weekends, so having an extra "weekend" day would be likely to depress that kind of number.
   6602. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 07, 2020 at 10:41 PM (#5961619)
including a multi-day holiday weekend, and as we've observed over the last 4 months, reported deaths lag significantly on weekends.


Yeah, today's death numbers obviously included a lot of catch-up from the weekend (see comment #6599). The question is whether today effectively included ALL of the catch-up. There were a few states that struck me as perhaps still lower than I'd have thought. We'll see if tomorrow settles back into the 600-700 range that we saw last Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, or whether we'll see more catch-up (and/or a clear uptick in the trend).
   6603. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 07, 2020 at 11:25 PM (#5961620)
Kiko, if the TX 85 is inflated, it's not by much coming after yesterday's 63, which tied the previous high. & we always do things in a big way heah, suh.
   6604. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 07, 2020 at 11:43 PM (#5961621)
Dr. Joseph Petrosino, chairman, Department of Molecular Virology and Microbiology at the Baylor School of Medicine, via Houston Chronicle.

"The mutation stabilizes the spikes. It actually makes them last longer. The spikes are stronger," Petrosino said. "This allows more opportunities to 'handshake with the host.'"
Petrosino said the research does not reflect that the mutated COVID-19 strain is more deadly.
"The data suggests that it is more contagious, but it does not lead to more deaths."
Petrosino said that there are growing early reports that immunity to this novel coronavirus isn't sustained for very long periods of time.
"Multiple reports suggest that some of the antibodies that are thought to be protective don't stay around too long."
He said this could potentially impact how people are vaccinated against COVID-19 in the future.
"We may need to vaccinate on an annual basis to make certain we are fully immunized before the next strain, potentially."
   6605. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: July 08, 2020 at 12:44 AM (#5961623)
Face masks were few and far between on Friday when Trump addressed a crowd of supporters at Mount Rushmore. There also seemed to be no effort to socially distance any of the attendees.


They weren't able to distance even if they wanted. The chairs were zip tied together.
   6606. Greg Pope Posted: July 08, 2020 at 10:06 AM (#5961651)
"We may need to vaccinate on an annual basis to make certain we are fully immunized before the next strain, potentially."


Vaccinating yearly is not really a problem. Make it part of the flu shot. I'm concerned that we may need to get vaccinated quarterly.

I'm also a little curious about antibodies vs. T-cells. I thought that antibodies for most diseases go away but the T-cells stick around and ramp up the antibodies quickly enough to prevent sickness.
   6607. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: July 08, 2020 at 10:44 AM (#5961659)
Gov DeWine of OH orders mandatory face coverings in specific counties of OH


I live in Hamilton County and work (well, when i used to have to go to the office) in Butler County, so, this affects me. It has been weird. In some parts of the area, most everyone already is wearing masks, in others, almost no one is wearing masks. This should be interesting. I have been wearing a mask everywhere. Got a lot of groceries yesterday, so, really won't have to do anything other than physical therapy a couple times a week for my shoulder. And that place already requires masks for everyone.
   6608. SoSH U at work Posted: July 08, 2020 at 10:48 AM (#5961661)
I live in Hamilton County and work (well, when i used to have to go to the office) in Butler County,


Well the sheriff in Butler County has announced he ain't enforcing no Commie Nazi mask law, or something to that effect.
   6609. PreservedFish Posted: July 08, 2020 at 10:50 AM (#5961663)
In some parts of the area, most everyone already is wearing masks, in others, almost no one is wearing masks.


The peer pressure effect must be huge in this. I bet that places that start off with 60% mask compliance eventually shoot up to 90%, and places with 40% mask compliance tumble down to 10%. This is probably some sort of well-studied sociological dynamic that I'm unfamiliar with.
   6610. Lassus Posted: July 08, 2020 at 11:11 AM (#5961669)
I'm concerned that we may need to get vaccinated quarterly.

I guess I don't find this that concerning.
   6611. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: July 08, 2020 at 11:46 AM (#5961674)
6609-Family in Wisconsin. Aunt's dad is dying because of a cancer but she doesn't want to make things worse with COVID by catching it as she is the one caring for him at home. (long story on why not in the hospital) She goes to Wal-Mart over the weekend and as she is walking in the parking lot to the store this guy she knows comes up to her and rips the mask off her face. My uncle was sitting in his truck and comes out of the truck and these two guys who if I get the story right on FB (FB totally sucks by the way) went to high school together are fighting in the parking lot. Over someone wearing a mask. Do I need to say wtf? Because wtf???
   6612. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 08, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5961679)

The peer pressure effect must be huge in this.


John Cole has posted that in his part of West Virginia, mask-wearing was around 10-20% but after the governor's order mandating masks, it went up to near 100%.
   6613. RJ in TO Posted: July 08, 2020 at 12:06 PM (#5961681)
I guess I don't find this that concerning.
The notion of having to get vaccinated quarterly is not particularly concerning. The act of having to coordinate getting everyone vaccinated quarterly is very concerning.
   6614. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: July 08, 2020 at 12:16 PM (#5961682)
where do you live SoSH?

And, yeah, Butler County is doomed. mixture of rednecks, country bumpkins, and white flight Cincy suburbs.
   6615. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 08, 2020 at 12:18 PM (#5961683)
Arizona has had more new virus cases (per capita) over the last week than any country in the world.

Here's a ranking that treats each U.S. state as a country:

1. Arizona
2. Florida
3. S. Carolina
4. Bahrain
5. Louisiana
6. Qatar
7. Oman

For more: https://t.co/I7kfZQJsF7 pic.twitter.com/p6clPAqrzu

— David Leonhardt (@DLeonhardt) July 8, 2020
   6616. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 08, 2020 at 12:20 PM (#5961684)
I disagree with @CDCgov on their very tough & expensive guidelines for opening schools. While they want them open, they are asking schools to do very impractical things. I will be meeting with them!!!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 8, 2020


republicanism is a death cult.
   6617. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 08, 2020 at 12:21 PM (#5961685)
I'm concerned that we may need to get vaccinated quarterly.

I guess I don't find this that concerning.


If one is reality based and and has healthcare, no, it is not personally concerning. But beyond 6613, there is a significant number of people who can't or won't get the vaccine. That has consequences.

If it turns out to be annual, am I free th assume this is Bill Gates's way of making me get a flu shot?
   6618. tshipman Posted: July 08, 2020 at 12:27 PM (#5961687)
I think asking people to go to the doctor quarterly and get a vaccine is a pretty heavy lift.

It's a pretty large disruption to the day, and hard to schedule and expensive.
   6619. PreservedFish Posted: July 08, 2020 at 12:33 PM (#5961690)
You can get a flu shot at Walgreen's. But even if drop-in, low-effort vaccines were available, compliance would quickly sag.

And the furor over a new COVID vaccine is already fated to make the "debates" we've had in the last decade on the safety of vaccines look quaint by comparison, but asking people to do it quarterly will just make all that much worse.
   6620. RJ in TO Posted: July 08, 2020 at 12:35 PM (#5961693)
I think asking people to go to the doctor quarterly and get a vaccine is a pretty heavy lift.

It's a pretty large disruption to the day, and hard to schedule and expensive.
Up here, you can get your flu vaccine at a huge assortment of other locations, including at many locations of Shoppers Drug Mart, which is an enormous chain, and exists in more or less every town. Since most people drop in there fairly regularly anyway, for their prescriptions, cleaning supplies, toiletries, makeup, or food, it would be a minor disruption for the significant majority.

I'm not sure how well this sort of method would work within the states, due to the differences in medical systems and access.

Edit: Also, to get the flu vaccine up here, the cost is "free".
   6621. SoSH U at work Posted: July 08, 2020 at 12:44 PM (#5961695)
where do you live SoSH?


Northwest Indiana, but I used to live in SE Indiana, so I saw the Butler County sheriff's remarks from a friend down that way.

   6622. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 08, 2020 at 12:45 PM (#5961696)
Up here, you can get your flu vaccine at a huge assortment of other locations, including at many locations of Shoppers Drug Mart, which is an enormous chain, and exists in more or less every town. Since most people drop in there fairly regularly anyway, for their prescriptions, cleaning supplies, toiletries, makeup, or food, it would be a minor disruption for the significant majority.

I'm not sure how well this sort of method would work within the states, due to the differences in medical systems and access.


Drug stores in the U.S. offer flu shots. The other place that offers flu shots for a fair number of people in the U.S. is workplaces. That's where my wife has regularly gotten hers via at least two of her three previous employers. Since that's also where most people get their health insurance in the U.S., that probably would make the most sense financially - insurance companies and/or the employers themselves if they self-insure would have the financial incentive to encourage folks to get vaccinated. A few shots would be a damn sight cheaper than having to pay for 30 days on a ventilator and a double-lung transplant.

But sure, four times a year is a bigger ask than once a year.
   6623. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 08, 2020 at 12:48 PM (#5961699)
6620 - Here's a link filled with discount flu shot info. I'll just agree with the absent bbc and a fair bit of history and say that it's be a lot easier of "those people" could be conveniently excluded like they used to be.

I can get my flu shot free with an office visit, but under ACA I get one free visit a year. Outside of visits, there's a charge for flu shots; primary care visits are $20.
   6624. tshipman Posted: July 08, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5961700)
I understand that there's a wide infrastructure and distribution network for the flu shot.

Any hypothetical COVID vaccine wouldn't have that. I'd assume that at least in the short term, you'd have to go to the doctor's office.
   6625. Greg Pope Posted: July 08, 2020 at 12:55 PM (#5961701)
I think asking people to go to the doctor quarterly and get a vaccine is a pretty heavy lift.

It's a pretty large disruption to the day, and hard to schedule and expensive.


Yeah, this was my original point. I don't pay for the flu shot because of insurance, and I don't think that the COVID-19 vaccine will end up being expensive. Either through insurance (not everybody has that) or government subsidies.

But remembering to get it quarterly would be a big problem for me. I get an annual flu shot but there are signs everywhere and I have about 2 months timeframe to actually get it. Getting it on time if it's quarterly will be hard for me.
   6626. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: July 08, 2020 at 01:05 PM (#5961707)
but I used to live in SE Indiana


Batesville? I used to work in Batesville.
   6627. Srul Itza Posted: July 08, 2020 at 01:12 PM (#5961710)
I understand that there's a wide infrastructure and distribution network for the flu shot.

Any hypothetical COVID vaccine wouldn't have that


Why not? They put a new flu vaccine into that chain every year, as they guess which one will be most effective. Why could they not use the same apparatus for a COVID vaccine?
   6628. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 08, 2020 at 01:31 PM (#5961714)
71 Deaths today in Joisey after 50 yesterday; what's up with that?
   6629. tshipman Posted: July 08, 2020 at 01:43 PM (#5961719)
Why not? They put a new flu vaccine into that chain every year, as they guess which one will be most effective. Why could they not use the same apparatus for a COVID vaccine?


Who pays?
How do you produce enough volume for every minute clinic?

These are problems that are solved for the flu, but we don't even have a vaccine for COVID yet. The flu vaccine isn't patented by a given pharma company.
   6630. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 08, 2020 at 01:54 PM (#5961725)
I used to work in Batesville.


caskets?
   6631. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: July 08, 2020 at 02:07 PM (#5961730)
caskets?


almost. I worked for Forethought (which no longer exists) which was part of Hillenbrand's group of companies. They sold funerals basically as insurance polices. You picked your casket and everything, came to whatever terms there were, and then paid a monthly. I guess either until you paid off the expense, or died (the policy would cover the rest of the cost if you died before paying it off). Something like that. it was a long time ago, i was only there a little over a year, and i was just a lowly cobol/mantis programmer. Company sucked, but, I didn't mind Batesville so much.
   6632. SoSH U at work Posted: July 08, 2020 at 02:09 PM (#5961731)
Batesville? I used to work in Batesville.


Next town up 74 (or 46). Greensburg. You know, home of the Tree.
   6633. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: July 08, 2020 at 02:14 PM (#5961735)
Next town up 74 (or 46). Greensburg. You know, home of the Tree.


ah, yes.

   6634. Srul Itza Posted: July 08, 2020 at 03:36 PM (#5961763)
You picked your casket and everything, came to whatever terms there were, and then paid a monthly. I guess either until you paid off the expense, or died (the policy would cover the rest of the cost if you died before paying it off)


Gives a whole new meaning to "Lay Away Plan"
   6635. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 08, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5961765)
In Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS. The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 8, 2020
republicanism is a death cult.

We don’t want the guidance from CDC to be a reason why schools don’t open,” Pence said
   6636. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 08, 2020 at 04:15 PM (#5961766)

"The White House today indicated that the CDC will announce next week that Coronavirus is a hoax, it's always been a hoax." -- RDP
   6637. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 08, 2020 at 04:44 PM (#5961770)
56 Florida hospital ICUs have hit capacity


At least 56 intensive care units in Florida hospitals reached capacity on Tuesday, state officials said. Another 35 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less, according to the Agency for Health Care Administration in that state.

Georgia surpassed 100,000 reported coronavirus cases, becoming the ninth state to pass the mark.

In California, the number of hospitalizations across the state were at an all-time high and the virus positivity rate jumped more than 2% in Los Angeles.

Hospitals in Texas and Florida are flooded with critical Covid-19 patients and some local and state officials have made face coverings mandatory.

Texas reported more than 10,000 new cases on Tuesday, marking the highest single day total in the state since the pandemic began.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, said Tuesday the death rate among coronavirus patients has lowered but Americans shouldn't take comfort in it.

"It's a false narrative to take comfort in a lower rate of death," Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during a livestream with Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama. "There's so many other things that are very dangerous and bad about this virus, don't get yourself into false complacency."



   6638. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 08, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5961771)
I get a free flu shot every year from my employer. A while back someone ran the numbers in corporate America and realized that "free" flu shots paid for themselves in worker lost time and so many employers offer them on site. It is suepr easy to get them and if Covid shots were the same way sign me up for as often as I need. If I have to go somewhere else, that is a harder ask. I likely would, but it would be harder.
   6639. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 08, 2020 at 04:59 PM (#5961774)
6637 -- Perhaps DeSantis can visit those hospitals in search of his apology.
   6640. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 08, 2020 at 04:59 PM (#5961775)

caskets?


Worst. The Graduate remake. Ever.
   6641. Howie Menckel Posted: July 08, 2020 at 05:51 PM (#5961780)
National theater chains and privately-owned gyms are filing separate lawsuits in NJ over being left out of the list of reopenings that is pretty broad at this point.

if there is any "science" to what Gov. Murphy is using to pick and choose, he has forgotten to offer it publicly for the past four months.

I can't imagine why a movie theater can't be open to 25 pct max capacity, with at least 60 minutes between movie showings for recleaning purposes.

I wouldn't get within 100 yards of a gym, personally, but I've seen the renovations on TV.

visits by appointment only so no overcrowding, you choose your preferred equipment in advance, plexiglass all over, and so forth.

NJ Governors are said to have the most powerful out of the 50, so it's possibly he can do damn near anything he wants.

Murphy, the first to mandate masks inside all stores back in March, now is saying he also will mandate masks outdoors as well. but he's very vague on it and the pushback is liable to come from far more than MAGA-hat wearers.

he's pretty much admitting it won't be enforced outdoors, though.
   6642. Laser Man Posted: July 08, 2020 at 06:18 PM (#5961786)
I can't imagine why a movie theater can't be open to 25 pct max capacity, with at least 60 minutes between movie showings for recleaning purposes.
Shouldn't be a mystery - it's believed to be high risk to have a large group of people indoors inside the same room for an extended period of time. Having over 100 people inside a theater for 2+ hours seems like a bad idea.
   6643. PreservedFish Posted: July 08, 2020 at 06:30 PM (#5961788)
Also, "recleaning" should probably properly involve an air filtration of some sort that I imagine movie theaters do not have.
   6644. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 08, 2020 at 06:36 PM (#5961790)
Aside from which, 60 minutes for the cleaning? Come back to the real world. But I guess you you're shilling for the preznit nothing's too unreasonable.
   6645. PreservedFish Posted: July 08, 2020 at 06:48 PM (#5961791)
Right, I'm amused by the idea that 25% max capacity is advanced as a magic number exactly one sentence after putting the word science in scare quotes.

Howie, do you think Gov. Murphy is just being arbitrary or actually nefarious? I'm guessing that this is his actual best guess as to what the right thing to do is.
   6646. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 08, 2020 at 07:06 PM (#5961798)
Note forward to Kiko, who speculated (#6599) that record deaths yesterday were weekend catch up

At the moment, CA is at 119 today vs 118 yesterday, with Riverside and San Diego, among others, not reporting.

TX is at 97 vs 85 with Bexar (San Antonio) among other counties not yet reporting. Looks like it will cross 100.

Mississippi had 30 vs 44, so a 1/3 drop, and Arizona dropped considerably (if the tally is complete) from 117 to 36.

   6647. bob gee Posted: July 08, 2020 at 07:29 PM (#5961804)
Ivy League won't play any sports in the rest of 2020; will re-evaluate starting up the winter sports in January.

https://www.si.com/college/2020/07/08/ivy-league-postpone-fall-sports-hopeful-football-spring

   6648. Greg Pope Posted: July 08, 2020 at 07:43 PM (#5961805)
it's believed to be high risk to have a large group of people indoors inside the same room for an extended period of time. Having over 100 people inside a theater for 2+ hours seems like a bad idea.

Yeah, this is it. We seem to have a pretty good idea of how this spreads. It's not so much touching things as it is breathing the same air. Even if you require masks, there's no way to enforce that people wear them the whole time.

So as much as I love going to the movies, I don't see myself attending for quite a while. Which is unfortunate. I think I've paid my AMC Stubs subscription through 2024. And I've already missed my birthday free popcorn and soda.
   6649. SoSH U at work Posted: July 08, 2020 at 07:55 PM (#5961807)
Ivy League won't play any sports in the rest of 2020; will re-evaluate starting up the winter sports in January.


My daughter's DIII school canceled all fall sports today. So, just as her brother missed out on his senior season of high school baseball this spring, she's lost her final season of college soccer. This breaks my heart a hell of a lot more than a lost season of MLB ever could.
   6650. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 08, 2020 at 07:55 PM (#5961808)
I used to work in Batesville.


This will be the first year in the last 12 or so that our extended clan won't be heading out to Freudenfest in neighboring Oldenburg. It's the first one since my dad passed -- he spent his summers there with his grandparents and uncles in the 1930s. The head of the committee is the son of my dad's uncle's best friend and bonded with my dad and that connection got us the privilege of drinking from the setup crew's keg the night before the festival opened. We traveled from the Philly area, booking a dozen or so rooms in the Hampton Inn in Batesville 364 days in advance. We got a number of cousins to come -- we had representation from CA, CO, FL, MO, MA, IL, MI and the tri-state area.

This would have been a sad but celebratory Freudenfest, but we can't have it. #### you, COVID.
   6651. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 08, 2020 at 07:59 PM (#5961810)
Right, I'm amused by the idea that 25% max capacity is advanced as a magic number exactly one sentence after putting the word science in scare quotes.

Howie, do you think Gov. Murphy is just being arbitrary or actually nefarious? I'm guessing that this is his actual best guess as to what the right thing to do is.
don't mind bagdad howie; he voted for aleppo.
   6652. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 08, 2020 at 08:04 PM (#5961812)
I wouldn't be surprised to see 60,000 cases by July 7th as well.


Missed it by a day. New cases today at Worldometers as I type this: 61,332

Of course, generally the numbers reported today (the 8th) are from the day before (the 7th), so I was kind of right.
   6653. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 08, 2020 at 08:10 PM (#5961813)
Took longer than expected, but deaths seem to be on the rise again. Cases are at a record high.

Iran is having a "second wave", where reported cases started to pick up very early in May, and topped out a month later. Reported deaths started to pick up in early to mid June, 4 to 6 weeks later, and don't seem to have topped out yet.

In the US cases started to pick up in early/mid-June. The pick up is likely still in front of us. Hospitalizations in the South and West have basically doubled in the past 3 weeks or so, and that's without including Forida.

If Iran is any indication (a big "if", no doubt), could be a rough several weeks ahead of us.
   6654. Tony S Posted: July 08, 2020 at 08:31 PM (#5961816)
Our county fair, scheduled for September, has been officially cancelled. It's the proper thing to do, but it still makes me sad. It's one of our local defining events, and fun for all.

They've canceled before -- in 1918 (the Spanish flu), and a couple of the WWII years.

On the plus side, mask usage is pretty much the norm indoors. The local Costco and Wegman's, at least, enforce it for their staff and for customers. And if a local business doesn't require one, I don't go in.
   6655. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 08, 2020 at 09:00 PM (#5961818)
Texas now at 121 deaths today vs 85 yesterday, which had been a record. Also a new record with another <10,000 cases.
California at 150 v. 118 yesterday.
In those states, yesterday wasn't a holiday-weekend effect.


   6656. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 08, 2020 at 09:33 PM (#5961825)
Our county fair, scheduled for September, has been officially cancelled.

State Fair of Texas also got scrubbed yesterday. First time since WWII.
   6657. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 08, 2020 at 09:34 PM (#5961826)
That Donald Trump rally inside Tulsa’s BOK Center on June 20 has now resulted in precisely what the president and his re-election campaign were repeatedly warned about, according to Tulsa County’s top health official: a coronavirus spike in the city.

Per the Associated Press, Tulsa City-County Health Department Director Dr. Bruce Dart said on Wednesday the county has seen almost 500 new cases of the virus in the past two days—261 on Monday and 206 on Tuesday—which falls a little over two weeks after Trump’s Juneteenth weekend rally in the city. Statewide, Oklahoma set a record for new cases at 858 on Tuesday and a second-place record of 673 new cases on Wednesday. Tulsa County accounts for around 4,571 (25.5 percent) of the state’s 17,893 confirmed cases.
...
“Our epidemiologists and contact tracers are inundated with following up with Tulsa County residents who are confirmed positive as the numbers have been extremely high in recent days,” the Tulsa Health Department’s Leanne Stephens told CNN. “Yesterday, we set a new single day case high and you can see on our website where the trends are moving.”

The Trump rally involved over 6,000 attendees, was indoors, and reporters noticed that the vast majority of attendees predictably did not wear masks. The Washington Post reported that the Trump campaign directed the removal of thousands of social distancing stickers on seats inside to create the appearance of a larger crowd. Meanwhile, a reporter present at the rally and two Trump campaign staffers who attended tested positive for the virus afterwards, while four members of a Trump advance team and two Secret Service tested positive right before and did not attend. Other attendees including Kimberly Guilfoyle and Herman Cain also tested positive following the rally.


republicanism is a death cult.
   6658. Srul Itza Posted: July 08, 2020 at 09:41 PM (#5961827)
That Donald Trump rally inside Tulsa’s BOK Center on June 20 has now resulted in precisely what the president and his re-election campaign were repeatedly warned about, according to Tulsa County’s top health official: a coronavirus spike in the city.


The next Lincoln Project ad practically writes itself. I bet it will be up in 24 hours
   6659. Hank Gillette Posted: July 08, 2020 at 10:13 PM (#5961829)
Our county fair, scheduled for September, has been officially cancelled. It's the proper thing to do, but it still makes me sad. It's one of our local defining events, and fun for all.


A lot of pain is being spread around. The best thing we can say about the cancellation is that it will leave more people alive to attend future county fairs.

The pandemic is displaying real-life application of the “marshmallow experiment”.
   6660. tshipman Posted: July 08, 2020 at 10:18 PM (#5961830)
Took longer than expected, but deaths seem to be on the rise again. Cases are at a record high.

Iran is having a "second wave", where reported cases started to pick up very early in May, and topped out a month later. Reported deaths started to pick up in early to mid June, 4 to 6 weeks later, and don't seem to have topped out yet.

In the US cases started to pick up in early/mid-June. The pick up is likely still in front of us. Hospitalizations in the South and West have basically doubled in the past 3 weeks or so, and that's without including Forida.

If Iran is any indication (a big "if", no doubt), could be a rough several weeks ahead of us.


I don't think it's accurate to describe this as a second wave. New York is still down, in both new cases and new deaths, with no signs of a rise.

In CA, Texas and FL, the shape is basically a brief rise, a plateau, then the standard exponential growth curve starting.

This is still the first wave.
   6661. Hank Gillette Posted: July 08, 2020 at 10:20 PM (#5961831)

So as much as I love going to the movies, I don't see myself attending for quite a while. Which is unfortunate. I think I've paid my AMC Stubs subscription through 2024. And I've already missed my birthday free popcorn and soda.


I don’t see myself going to anywhere with large crowds in enclosed structures for a long time. Even after a vaccine is approved and widely distributed (
   6662. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 08, 2020 at 10:22 PM (#5961832)
This is still the first wave.
yup.
   6663. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 08, 2020 at 10:29 PM (#5961833)
****,

Our First Lady is right.
If schools around our Nation choose not to re-open soon, our children will miss so much more than just an education. The Invisible Enemy has already taken so much from our Country, and we cannot allow it to take away our kids’ childhood too.
As your President, I will not stand for that. America needs to get back on track.
It’s important that EVERY American comes together at a time like this to send a united message that SCHOOLS MUST RE-OPEN IN THE FALL. I’m calling on YOU to make a public statement and add your name to stand with your President and our First Lady.
The Radical Left (the cancel everything party) will try and keep our schools closed FOREVER. We need 1 MILLION signatures to show them where Real Americans stand.
   6664. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 08, 2020 at 10:56 PM (#5961835)
Whether it is a first or second wave was not the point of my post. I also have no idea if Iran is like the US, where almost all their new cases are in a different geographic area than their older cases. My point was (supposed to be) that now that the world has gotten more familiar with the virus, it might be the case that deaths lag cases by 4 to 6 weeks, rather than the apparent 2 weeks or so (in reality probably longer) we saw early in this pandemic.

One reason might be that people are now taking longer to die. This is probably part of it, but personally I think the beginning of the pandemic in places like NYC and Italy was going on long before anyone knew about it, and the climb in cases was much slower than people realized, and likely topped out very soon after lockdown. If true, the dramatic rise in cases we saw right before lockdown in places lie NYC would mostly have been an artifact of a dramatic rise in testing, which continued after lockdown making cases appear to rise even further (even though they had stopped rising soon after lockdown). In early places like Wuhan, Northern Italy and NYC, deaths topped out about 3-4 weeks after lockdown. If they are now topping out 4-6 weeks later something definitely seems to have changed--potentially better treatment is reducing the IFR and keeping people alive longer.
   6665. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 08, 2020 at 11:43 PM (#5961841)
One reason might be that people are now taking longer to die. This is probably part of it, but personally I think the beginning of the pandemic in places like NYC and Italy was going on long before anyone knew about it, and the climb in cases was much slower than people realized, and likely topped out very soon after lockdown. If true, the dramatic rise in cases we saw right before lockdown in places lie NYC would mostly have been an artifact of a dramatic rise in testing, which continued after lockdown making cases appear to rise even further (even though they had stopped rising soon after lockdown). In early places like Wuhan, Northern Italy and NYC, deaths topped out about 3-4 weeks after lockdown. If they are now topping out 4-6 weeks later something definitely seems to have changed--potentially better treatment is reducing the IFR and keeping people alive longer.


I think it's mostly a matter of testing capacity so cases are being caught earlier and more often. Identifying new cases earlier leads to a longer lag from positive test to death - back in March and into April, the protocol in most places limited testing to only people showing clear symptoms and as things got worse, the reality was that testing became limited to only those with severe symptoms. Identifying a larger share of cases leads to a lower apparent IFR. It's been said that initially testing was missing 90% of cases which is consistent with, say, New York, where daily cases peaked on April 10th at 10,059 per day (7-day moving average) and daily deaths peaked on April 13th - just three days later (lack of testing) - at 956, which is an implied IFR of 9.5%. But, of course, we know the real IFR is only about 1% (probably a bit higher including excess deaths, but, of course, the 956 doesn't include excess deaths). But if you multiply 10,059 cases times 10, that would drop the IFR to 0.95%, which is pretty accurate.

Today is the first day where there were more deaths over the last seven days than over the seven days (July 2-8) before that (June 25-July 1). Deaths over the last seven days are about 5.4% higher than deaths over the previous seven days. Cases were first higher full week over full week for the week ending June 9th (June 3-9 vs. May 27-June 2). That's 29 days earlier and cases were 6.5% higher in the week ending June 9th than in the week ending June 2nd.

Comparing both sets of death numbers to cases 29 days earlier, deaths are running about 2.6% of cases. So, whereas in April, we were only catching maybe 10% of all cases, now, it could just be that we're catching more like 35-40% of cases if we think the "observed" IFR is just below 1% - maybe we're catching as many as half of cases if we think the IFR is as high as 1.3%.

If testing hasn't improved very much since early June, we might expect that 2.6% to carry forward. If part of the increase in cases since then is because of increased testing, though, then we'd expect that 2.6% to fall still more.

As to what that means going forward, 2.6% of 62,000 cases would be about 1,600 daily deaths, which would still be less than the April peak when the U.S. was reporting 2,200 deaths per day for a little while. Of course, if that 62,000 (61,848 to be precise) new cases today becomes 85,000 new cases a week or two from now, then we could get back to that April level (2.6% of 85,000 is 2,210). Hopefully not.
   6666. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 08, 2020 at 11:56 PM (#5961842)
As to what that means going forward, 2.6% of 62,000 cases would be about 1,600 daily deaths, which would still be less than the April peak when the U.S. was reporting 2,200 deaths per day for a little while. Of course, if that 62,000 (61,848 to be precise) new cases today becomes 85,000 new cases a week or two from now, then we could get back to that April level (2.6% of 85,000 is 2,210). Hopefully not.

a few things to keep in mind when thinking of death rates:

we know what the worst case scenarios look like: hospitals overflow; healthcare workers get sick; the workload snowballs; things start to collapse.

when we talk about peak hotspot death rates, those are a function of that control spiral. if the ICU space is preserved, if the healthcare personnel is protected, if the workload is kept to a reasonable level, we should not see those NYC/ITA-lombardy death rates approached in any other setting again.


...unless i'm wrong. because that's also possible, i guess. some people may just get it worse than others, and they're going to die regardless of the quality of care they receive, and in amounts comparable to those first pandemerica hotspots.
   6667. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 09, 2020 at 12:02 AM (#5961843)
if the ICU space is preserved, if the healthcare personnel is protected, if the workload is kept to a reasonable level


I don't know: the anecdotal evidence would suggest those "ifs" aren't happening though. See, for example, comment #6637. God knows I'm not rooting for death. But there's nothing magical about Houston or Phoenix or Atlanta or Los Angeles (or dozens of small towns that I've never heard of throughout the South and West) that would make them immune to what happened in New York City.
   6668. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 09, 2020 at 12:16 AM (#5961844)
Re: 6665, I think I might have gotten my dates mixed up. The first week-over-week increase in new cases was June 13th or 14th, so the lag's only 24 or 25 days. The basic story's the same, though (including the 2.6%).
   6669. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 09, 2020 at 12:18 AM (#5961845)
I don't know: the anecdotal evidence would suggest those "ifs" aren't happening though. See, for example, comment #6637. God knows I'm not rooting for death. But there's nothing magical about Houston or Phoenix or Atlanta or Los Angeles (or dozens of small towns that I've never heard of throughout the South and West) that would make them immune to what happened in New York City.

things are not nearly as bad as NYC.

to be clear: that's not a relevant standard for success; in fact, it's the standard for catastrophic failure. but i do think it's reasonable to point out that none of the current hotspots, bad as they may seem, approach that level. for now.
   6670. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 09, 2020 at 12:41 AM (#5961847)
if the ICU space is preserved, if the healthcare personnel is protected, if the workload is kept to a reasonable level, we should not see those NYC/ITA-lombardy death rates approached in any other setting again.

Looking at the official numbers for Texas, South Texas looks like a bomb about to go off (provided you don't count Houston as "South Texas," but it certainly has its own issues too).

For reporting purposes, the regions of Texas comprising the Gulf Coast (except for Houston's region which has a small bit of Gulf Coast frontage) to the top of the Big Bend area in Southwest Texas and including the area along the Louisiana border north of Beaumont has a combined population of 7 million people.... almost the size of NYC. Their combined stats through today are hospitals at 84% capacity, 3610 CV+ hospitalizations, and 153 available ICU rooms.

About 2/3 of those available ICU rooms are in the San Antonio region. If we exclude that, we get a region whose population is 4.1 million (same as Los Angeles) whose stats are hospitals at 82% capacity, 2196 CV+ hospitalizations, and 57 available ICU rooms.

About half of those remaining 57 rooms are in the Brownsville region. If we drop that one too, the remaining region has a population of 2.7 million (same as Chicago) with stats of 78% hospital utilization, 1017 CV+ admissions, and 32 available ICU beds.

Per Worldometers, Texas fatalities the last 3 days have gone from 63(*) to 85(**) to 121(**).


* tied existing daily record
** set new daily record

   6671. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 09, 2020 at 01:09 AM (#5961849)
Looking at the official numbers for Texas, South Texas looks like a bomb about to go off (provided you don't count Houston as "South Texas," but it certainly has its own issues too).
i could be wrong, and i can't find the exact numbers atm, but my recollection is that NYC was at 250-400% ICU capacity before they were able to get supplementary facilities in place. that's including significant rationing of care and a massive shortage of supplies, equipment and personnel.

i can't imagine that things anywhere in america will get as bad as they were in NYC.
   6672. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 01:10 AM (#5961850)
provided you don't count Houston as "South Texas,

We're not, but we can only take so much overflow from elsewhere, and we've been running a patient swap meet out of the Med Center for at least a week.

I think the salient differences between March/April and now, NYC and Texas are:
1. Even if compliance is not what we wish, it's a lot better than what the NY metro area was like through early March; things that raise eyebrows now were common then. Controls were relaxed, but never fully lifted and a good number of people were still behaving as if the rules had not been relaxed.
2. That swatch of TX you describe contains three counties with population-densities of <1 person/sq. mi. and several with <10/sq mi. Only three counties in the state exceed densities of 2,000/sq mi, which is 25% of Staten Island's: Harris (2400), Dallas (2700), Tarrant (2100) using rounded 2010 figures.

The Valley concerns me a lot. It's poor and severely neglected. The cities' good fortune is that they're islands of density (Tarrant + Dallas counties = Harris [each ~4 million], not the dense sprawl of the NY or LA SMSAs.)


Thanks ElRoy!
   6673. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 09, 2020 at 01:13 AM (#5961851)
Close the italics tag, Mayor!

Close the tag!!!!

You’ll all thank me in the morning.
   6674. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 09, 2020 at 07:46 AM (#5961857)
The Nashville vs Chicago game that was supposed to happen yesterday in the MLS restart tournament got postponed because 5 Nashville players tested positive for COVID and four more had "inconclusive" tests. They haven't made an announcement yet but I'd suspect that Nashville will be removed from the tournament just like Dallas was on Monday. With a rate of losing a team every two days, MLS should crown as its champion whichever team remains uninfected on August 24.
   6675. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 09, 2020 at 08:43 AM (#5961860)
The Nashville vs Chicago game that was supposed to happen yesterday in the MLS restart tournament got postponed because 5 Nashville players tested positive for COVID and four more had "inconclusive" tests. They haven't made an announcement yet but I'd suspect that Nashville will be removed from the tournament just like Dallas was on Monday. With a rate of losing a team every two days, MLS should crown as its champion whichever team remains uninfected on August 24.


These anecdotes continue to confuse me. Models like this say 1% of USA is currently infected, but in these groups like MLS and NBA that are theoretically taking great pains to not be infected, many many more than 1% seem to be infected. I don't have any grand "what this means" pronouncement here, it just confuses me.

Maybe it's that MLS and NBA players are actually not trying to not be infected compared to the average population.

EDIT - Maybe the answer (maybe this is obvious) is that one of them gets it from who knows and then it is easy to spread amongst teammates.
   6676. Tony S Posted: July 09, 2020 at 08:49 AM (#5961861)
i can't imagine that things anywhere in america will get as bad as they were in NYC.


We're only as strong as our weakest link. Unless the Northeast builds a big wall around itself, AND resists the temptation to open up recklessly, the current explosion in the sunbelt states will boomerang back north eventually.
   6677. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 09, 2020 at 09:11 AM (#5961864)
in these groups like MLS and NBA that are theoretically taking great pains to not be infected, many many more than 1% seem to be infected.


I thought just over 1% of NBA players and staff tested (~3500 people) came back positive.
   6678. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 09, 2020 at 09:17 AM (#5961865)
These anecdotes continue to confuse me. Models like this say 1% of USA is currently infected, but in these groups like MLS and NBA that are theoretically taking great pains to not be infected, many many more than 1% seem to be infected. I don't have any grand "what this means" pronouncement here, it just confuses me.

Maybe it's that MLS and NBA players are actually not trying to not be infected compared to the average population.

EDIT - Maybe the answer (maybe this is obvious) is that one of them gets it from who knows and then it is easy to spread amongst teammates.
There are about 2,000 people who are supposed to be in the MLS bubble. I'll make up a number and say that there are 35 people related to each team, or 910 total. So with a randomly spread 1% infection rate (it's not randomly spread, but work with me) you'd expect 9 cases relating to the teams. Testing pulls a Star Trek Voyager season 4 and gets Seven of Nine, meaning two of these slip through testing outside of the bubble. Then with the realities of athletic training and competition those two infect other people on their teams, and you have the situation MLS is in now. I don't think any step in that chain is remotely implausible.

Also -- soccer players are young, fit, wealthier than most other people in their age brackets, and very international. They were dispersed all over everywhere before coming into the MLS bubble, doing god knows what. It wouldn't be at all surprising if they have a high infection rate than the country in general.
   6679. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 09, 2020 at 10:14 AM (#5961871)
Thanks, makes sense.
   6680. puck Posted: July 09, 2020 at 10:25 AM (#5961875)
One note about MLS--I believe all the positive tests so far were upon arrival at the bubble. Vast majority (all but 2-4 or something) of tests within the bubble came from those two teams. Teams had instructed players to take precautions.

There was additional reporting that other teams were pissed at FC Dallas for the number of positives and wanted them out. Supposedly Nashville is getting the same treatment; expelling them could help the tournament format (it would cut the number of teams from 25 to 24) as well. OTOH this is Nashville's first year as a MLS club.
   6681. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 09, 2020 at 11:20 AM (#5961879)
Apparently, Florida got jealous of all the other "cool states" reporting triple-digit deaths in one day - Arizona on Tuesday, Texas on Wednesday, California both days. New record for Florida today - 119 deaths. Previous record was 83 back in April; previous recent high was 68.
   6682. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 11:57 AM (#5961884)
Mayor Sylvester Turner yesterday directed the agency that manages the GR Brown Convention Center to cancel the state GOP's convention. That's 6,000 people not congregating maskless in Houston. Some disgruntled folk say Turner saved Abbott having to cancel the convention to quash the revolt against his moves to slow the virus's spread.
Asked why he waited so long to act, Turner explained that he knew the politics of his action would willfully be misread, and he hoped the GOP might come to its senses (heh).


I see, too, that NJ now has an outdoor mask rule.
   6683. Hank Gillette Posted: July 09, 2020 at 12:58 PM (#5961887)
These anecdotes continue to confuse me. Models like this say 1% of USA is currently infected, but in these groups like MLS and NBA that are theoretically taking great pains to not be infected, many many more than 1% seem to be infected. I don't have any grand "what this means" pronouncement here, it just confuses me.


Another possibility is that much more than 1% of the U.S. is infected.

This is why we need massive testing; so we do not have to rely so much on models.
   6684. Howie Menckel Posted: July 09, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5961889)
Nashville also is now out of MLS bubble
   6685. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: July 09, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5961892)
I have reached a new level of confusion in both my comprehension of the pandemic and how to modify my own behavior. I live in Ohio, which is currently seeing a spike. My fiancee and I had certainly eased back on the extreme social distancing we followed for the first few months. We ate outside at restaurants a few times, saw more friends in outdoor settings (and with fewer than ten people; usually just us and another couple), and even let a handful of friends into our apartment so long as we trusted they were following social distancing measures. We wear masks whenever we are inside any place that is not our apartment. Due to the recent surge, we are on the cusp of reverting to serious social distancing, meaning no contact with friends and no trips outside the house except for walks/exercise, the grocery store, and the drugstore.

But earlier this week, I exchanged messages with my friend who is a resident physician. He took everything about as seriously as anyone I knew for the first few months. His wife went on voluntary furlough from her job to look after their son so they could completely eliminate contact with family and friends who helped with childcare. He does not have any political leanings or a penchant for conspiracy theories that would bias him against a second shutdown or a return to extreme social distancing. His advice to me was wear a mask and use your best judgment, but he has no plans to return to the social distancing we practiced in the spring. An anecdote, even from a medical professional, is not data.

That said, I have no idea what to do now. My personal preference is to return to serious social distancing, which is possible for my fiancee and me since we are both working from home for the foreseeable future. However, with a few exceptions, almost everyone we know has loosened up their personal behavior at least a little bit. I'm so afraid of getting someone else sick, but I'm also afraid of hunkering down and someone we know coming down with a severe or deadly case and us never seeing them again. Our most at-risk relatives are still secluded, but I know plenty of middle aged folks that are taking fewer precautions. How do I balance protecting everyone's health when they aren't doing the same for themselves? It's giving me a lot of anxiety.
   6686. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 09, 2020 at 01:30 PM (#5961896)
Co-sign the post above. I was telling my wife the other night that it was easier, and even in some ways less stressful, a few months ago when the rule was just that nobody could do anything, rather than now having to try to make individual decisions on everything based on very little reliable data.

Please tell me what to do, internet people!
   6687. puck Posted: July 09, 2020 at 01:30 PM (#5961897)
Nashville had 9 confirmed positives.

For the other 24 clubs in the MLS tourney, it was reported that there were 4 positives from 2 clubs:

@SoccerInsider
MLS testing update: 4 out of 1,888 players, coaches, referees, club staff, league staff and other individuals tested positive. All four came from two clubs. No other details available.
10:42 PM · Jul 8, 2020
   6688. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 09, 2020 at 01:33 PM (#5961898)
How do I balance protecting everyone's health when they aren't doing the same for themselves? It's giving me a lot of anxiety.


XKCD too.
   6689. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 01:42 PM (#5961899)
My personal preference, and those of most friends/colleagues has been to be a few steps behind on reopening and ahead on backing off; in Houston that's effectively meant no changes for me since the start of things. The way I look at it, of not seeing someone because they get a bad case is a real possibility, so is getting it from them unless you're all taking precautions when you see them. How much risk are you comfortable with?

ETA: I've found myself reflecting that the Humanities was once concerned with just these questions: how we live lives in the absence of certainties, but that we've strayed from that when we collectively need it. So we have administrators pretending they are making decisions based on solid information and students bemoaning the fact that decisions haven't already been made about the fall, and no one wanting to speak the truth: We don't know. That's how life works.
   6690. Tony S Posted: July 09, 2020 at 02:10 PM (#5961902)
But earlier this week, I exchanged messages with my friend who is a resident physician. He took everything about as seriously as anyone I knew for the first few months. His wife went on voluntary furlough from her job to look after their son so they could completely eliminate contact with family and friends who helped with childcare. He does not have any political leanings or a penchant for conspiracy theories that would bias him against a second shutdown or a return to extreme social distancing. His advice to me was wear a mask and use your best judgment, but he has no plans to return to the social distancing we practiced in the spring. An anecdote, even from a medical professional, is not data.


I'm in a similar boat. My BF is a retired physician and takes the pandemic seriously (not the least because he checks several of the extra-risk boxes himself). After not seeing each other for maybe three months, he's come up three times over the last month or so, and we both wear masks indoors, while maximizing our time together outdoors. He came up last week for a birthday celebration with a mutual friend, and we did the whole thing in our friend's backyard, even in the searing heat. We're doing this again today for HIS birthday. I've physically hung out with others who (a) are serious about masks and social distancing, and (b) agree that we stay outdoors as much as possible. We've done a lot of hikes around state parks. That's a "quaranteam" of four or five people, and so far it's worked OK. I'm very reluctant to go any further, though.
   6691. Tony S Posted: July 09, 2020 at 02:34 PM (#5961904)
   6692. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 02:53 PM (#5961906)
Tony -- I've never understood how that couldn't be the case as long as breathing is the primary way the virus enters the body.
   6693. Ron J Posted: July 09, 2020 at 03:04 PM (#5961910)
#6691 I'd have to read the full report, but what I saw didn't address the commonly cited issue with masks -- in effect that our behaviours (fidgeting in particular) raises the risk of transmission. Mask to hand to face.

They do state that transmission from surfaces is fairly uncommon so maybe that's covered. But if the assumption is that we'll be highly disciplined about touch our face … that's just ignoring reality.
   6694. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 09, 2020 at 03:21 PM (#5961915)
I've at least gotten better about not touching other people's faces when I'm out and about.

I kid, but many years ago I briefly dated a girl who my friends and I ended up referring to as "Face Grabber!" (said with this intonation) because of her, er, overly enthusiastic greetings. We were joking that she has to be a superspreader somewhere.
   6695. PreservedFish Posted: July 09, 2020 at 03:31 PM (#5961919)
The probable re-opening of schools in September is going to explode a lot of this awkwardness regarding social distancing. We've been a very tight family bubble and have severely restricted our time with other people, but come fall, if we're able to, we'll send both kids to the heinous petri dish known as public school. There will be new strange sanitation and distancing rules in place, but come on. And at that point not inviting my mother-in-law into our home, or requiring a 5-year old to wear a mask for an outdoor playdate in a public park, will seem totally ridiculous, as our "bubble" will have grown so large as to be basically meaningless, encompassing the entire community.

Although it might become even more important for mother-in-law to stay away.
   6696. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 03:47 PM (#5961922)
from, 6691
“Studies in laboratory conditions now show the virus stays alive in aerosol form with a half-life on the scale of hours. It persists in the air,” Ristenpart said. “That’s why you want to be outdoors for any social situations if possible. The good air flow will disperse the virus. If you are indoors, think about opening the windows. You want as much fresh air as possible.”


No indication of how lab conditions differ from "the petri dish known as ... school," but makes me feel better in my choice not to teach f2f in a room that's been in use all day. And I do think about opening the windows all summer, and how, were I not in Houston, I would. But it's 95 and feels like 106.
   6697. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 09, 2020 at 03:51 PM (#5961925)
And I do think about opening the windows all summer, and how, were I not in Houston, I would. But it's 95 and feels like 106.


Yeah, this isn't completely it, but I don't know that it's a coincidence that new cases are stable and/or declining in the Northeast and Upper Midwest where this time of year is "get outside as much as possible" season and cases are soaring in the South and Southwest where this time of year is "never leave the air conditioning if at all possible" season.
   6698. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: July 09, 2020 at 04:33 PM (#5961934)
6697--Don't think how the virus mutates gets enough attention in media. I mean there were some stories especially end of June/July but think this is important for public to get. Because people need to understand why some things need to change. If you are getting attacked and the enemy adjusts his fire you have to adapt. Anyway, think mutation gets not enough discussion.
   6699. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 04:45 PM (#5961938)
on mutatiom see #6604
   6700. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: July 09, 2020 at 04:57 PM (#5961942)
6699--I know. I am just saying in the general public discussion mutation is not discussed enough IMO. All I am sharing.
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