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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 8842 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   6701. PreservedFish Posted: July 09, 2020 at 05:00 PM (#5961944)
flip
   6702. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 09, 2020 at 05:02 PM (#5961945)
We've been a very tight family bubble and have severely restricted our time with other people, but come fall, if we're able to, we'll send both kids to the heinous petri dish known as public school. There will be new strange sanitation and distancing rules in place, but come on.
Wipe the kids down before and after school? Use a hose? Ultraviolet light? Boarding school? Lots of ‘creative’ options, with more likely to reach the market soon.
   6703. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 06:10 PM (#5961962)
Houston Chronicle:

The Big Ten Conference announced Thursday it will not play nonconference games in football or several other sports this fall because of the coronavirus pandemic.

The league cited medical advice in reaching its decision, the biggest yet by a power conference, and added ominously that the plan would be applied only “if the conference is able to participate in fall sports.”
   6704. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 09, 2020 at 06:13 PM (#5961966)
Huh. They must have reliable data that the virus isn’t readily transmitted at conference games.
   6705. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 09, 2020 at 06:22 PM (#5961967)
republicanism is a death cult.


The CDC has largely been sidelined during the ongoing pandemic. Redfield is reportedly on thin ice with the White House for coronavirus testing debacles on the one hand and periodically contradicting Trump’s all-is-well narrative and supposedly counting too many coronavirus deaths on the other. In May, the CDC was reportedly stalled from releasing in-depth guidelines for businesses as states rushed to reopen and the president was busy proclaiming victory; it then took a week to post loosened guidelines and didn’t post the original set until days later. The rushed reopenings coupled with vague and contradictory messaging from health authorities are a big part of why confirmed cases in the U.S. have since surged to over three million.
...
“Our guidelines are our guidelines, but we are going to provide additional reference documents to aid basically communities in trying to open K-through-12s,” Redfield said on Good Morning America. “It’s not a revision of the guidelines; it’s just to provide additional information to help schools be able to use the guidance we put forward.”
...
According to NBC News, the additional materials being prepared are being issued by the White House, not the CDC, and will “include some of those issued by the CDC in May and recommendations from the American Academy of Pediatrics.” NBC News also reported that administration officials are considering a plan to “tie federal funding for schools to the pace of their reopening plans as part of congressional negotiations over a Phase 4 stimulus bill.”
   6706. PreservedFish Posted: July 09, 2020 at 06:48 PM (#5961972)
I am confident that the way that the White House is pursuing this is absolutely wrong, but I do agree that reopening public schools needs to be a priority. Shuttering them until there's a vaccine is unacceptable. If reopening schools means that we need to re-close restaurants and bars in order to counterbalance the infection risks, so be it.
   6707. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 09, 2020 at 07:02 PM (#5961975)
I am confident that the way that the White House is pursuing this is absolutely wrong, but I do agree that reopening public schools needs to be a priority. Shuttering them until there's a vaccine is unacceptable. If reopening schools means that we need to re-close restaurants and bars in order to counterbalance the infection risks, so be it.
define "priority"

there is no safe way to reopen schools while covid is spreading uncontrolled.
reopening schools while covid is already spreading uncontrolled is just recreating the plot from jaws.


   6708. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 07:20 PM (#5961979)
Shuttering them until there's a vaccine is unacceptable.


Inconvenient and unfortunate, certainly. But that sort of claim ought to be accompanied by an indication of what is to be done that is feasible and to include an acknowledgement of the risks involved. Otherwise, it sounds like you know who on Twitter -- speaking of unacceptable.

Others on this site have said that the elements in your "exchange" are unacceptable, though I'll not that it's not a swap in states where the bars are already closed.

The larger problem in many states and at the WH level, is that all people have done is yell "unacceptable" and "open 'er up" because it plays to the base. If we'd done that, we'd be much farther along.

I get where you're coming from, Fish, but I also talk to a lot of teachers who have serious misgivings be they aged, younger with condition,s pregnant, caregivers for elderly parents or whatever. What do you do with them? What do you do about already understaffed, overcrowded classrooms? I'd like to hear.

   6709. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 07:41 PM (#5961986)
addendum to 08 -- I forgot to mention the parents uncomfortable with sending their kids back. Katy, TX, is pretty hard Republican, but about half the parents aren't comfortable returning their kids to school:

More than 31,700 parents and guardians responded to the survey. Some areas of interest were:
49 percent of the parents and guardians “feel comfortable or somewhat comfortable” sending their child(ren) back for in-person instruction in the fall.
76 percent of participants “agree or strongly agree” that school employees need to wear face coverings, and 64 percent said students should wear them.
64 percent of parents and guardians said they would at least be “somewhat uncomfortable” with their children going to school on school buses. 44 percent of those participants said knowing the buses would be sanitized after each route would help them feel better about it.
   6710. Ron J Posted: July 09, 2020 at 08:28 PM (#5961994)
Mississippi state health officer Thomas Dobbs, “Mississippi hospitals cannot take care of Mississippi patients.”

EDIT: Mississippi statehouse shuttered for 2 weeks as dozens of lawmakers get coronavirus
   6711. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 09, 2020 at 08:44 PM (#5961996)
EDIT: Mississippi statehouse shuttered for 2 weeks as dozens of lawmakers get coronavirus
you forgot to add the obligatory:

republicanism is a death cult.
   6712. base ball chick Posted: July 09, 2020 at 08:44 PM (#5961997)
theres a LOT of parents not wanting to send their kidz back to skool and i'm one of em. he's seriously worried about missing his all important senior year. i'm seriously worried about him not keeping his mask on at all times and bringing home virus and getting his daddy sickern sick. they people who are worried but gonna do it anyhow are peoploe who gotta work or threy out on the street. and people with kidz who need any kind of IEP or tutoring. and young kidz won't pay no attention to the teacher on the intarnetz, just videos

gov republican abbott was too chickenpoopoo to shut down that stupid mask-less repub convention downtown so the mayor had to do it. of course he's getting sued because people got a right to not wear masks and get and spread disease iffn they want to

they trying to downplay how bad things are here with the - oh yea, x beds are still open in the state of texas. but srsly are you gonna keep shipping people in houston off to midland/odessa? cmon. the hospitals sending a lot of reaolly sick people home to sink or swim, too. that don't get mentioned real too much - there was something in thr chron the othr day abut how the dying at home deaths are up. well, yeah, duh

sigh
   6713. Srul Itza Posted: July 09, 2020 at 08:48 PM (#5961999)
Mississippi statehouse shuttered for 2 weeks as dozens of lawmakers get coronavirus



Expect shortly to hear someone say it is God's punishment for removing the Confederate emblem from the State Flag.
   6714. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 08:50 PM (#5962000)
BBC -- Did you notice that the Montgomery County Judge -- where they don't enforce masking -- said the GOP is welcome if they follow CDC guidelines?

Even the chickenshit are going chickenhawk.
   6715. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 09:01 PM (#5962002)
Texas numbers. From the early returns, I thought that Worldometer would put TX back in double-digit deaths today, but it sits at 102. Hidalgo, at the border, had 23 today, more than either Harris, Dallas, or Bexar.

Cases set a new record at 11,394, more than 10 percent above yesterday. This isn't the trend line that opens schools.
   6716. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 09, 2020 at 09:03 PM (#5962003)
Expect shortly to hear someone say it is God's punishment for removing the Confederate emblem from the State Flag.


no, god only punishes gays and soldiers for attacks on institutional white supremacy.
   6717. base ball chick Posted: July 09, 2020 at 09:06 PM (#5962004)
Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 08:50 PM (#5962000)
BBC -- Did you notice that the Montgomery County Judge -- where they don't enforce masking -- said the GOP is welcome if they follow CDC guidelines?

Even the chickenshit are going chickenhawk


- yeh, i saw that. the county sheriff refuses to enforce the mask rules, if i remember rightly

so MANY stupid people. what is the problem with wearing a ****ing mask when you are inside a building???



   6718. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 09, 2020 at 09:21 PM (#5962009)
Cases set a new record at 11,394, more than 10 percent above yesterday. This isn't the trend line that opens schools.
You wouldn't think so, but that's still the plan. It feels like the administration is pushing towards full-on Sweden-style exposure. Sweden's covid fatality rate is at a beefy 7.4%.
   6719. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 09:30 PM (#5962011)
You wouldn't think so, but that's still the plan. It feels like the administration


And sitting here, I feel like a Swedish meatball.
   6720. PreservedFish Posted: July 09, 2020 at 09:56 PM (#5962013)
Blomberg:

Inconvenient and unfortunate, certainly. But that sort of claim ought to be accompanied by an indication of what is to be done that is feasible and to include an acknowledgement of the risks involved. Otherwise, it sounds like you know who on Twitter -- speaking of unacceptable.


Sorry, I wasn't prepared to mount a more robust argument. My position is that elementary schools should probably be THE priority, before bars, restaurants, cafes, movie theaters, whatever. This should be taken for granted and everything else should be planned around it. If I were running a state I'd get my doctors and scholars to give me the best damn guess on what % open schools raise "the curve" by, and start there. If I feel I can open some other stuff and still keep the curve "flattened" such that the hospitals could respond, then I'd consider what other stuff I could open. If testing numbers suddenly looked bad and I had to pivot and re-close, I'd close schools last, if I could help it.

My assumption is that it will be possible to keep some elements of society/economy re-opened going forward, and that full perpetual lockdown won't be required. And also that a certain percentage of disease spread is tolerable - that the goal remains to flatten the curve, not necessarily to squash it.

A scenario where schools are closed or 100% online, but people are still going out to bars and bowling alleys - that would be an absurdity and an injustice.

Although I do have little kids, we're also in a privileged position where keeping them home for an entire year wouldn't be backbreaking. So while I'd personally benefit from this plan, I don't need it. In fact, this is a question we've struggled with, and I absolutely get bbc's position. I have Type 1 diabetes and therefore appear to be something like 3x as likely to die or suffer severe illness as someone else my age. Still something of a longshot, but scary nonetheless. I'm constantly debating whether or not we should just go about regular life (with the obvious precautions), whether we should retain a family lockdown until vaccine, or whether I should go live in an igloo by myself for the next two years and let the fam act like normal people.

To me, opening schools is a more of a social imperative, both to educate the next generation and to free up the many, many parents that have had their hands tied by lack of childcare. Reports say that educational disparities have already been exacerbated by the few months of closed schools - there are massive difference between the families that have time and ability to foster out of school learning, and those that do not. Plenty of kids don't even have computers for their Zoom classes. Another year would be far worse.

I get where you're coming from, Fish, but I also talk to a lot of teachers who have serious misgivings be they aged, younger with condition,s pregnant, caregivers for elderly parents or whatever. What do you do with them? What do you do about already understaffed, overcrowded classrooms? I'd like to hear.


Yeah, this ####### sucks. I don't know. As an armchair administrator, I'll say that we should wave a magic wand that allows high risk teachers to stay at home with pay, and that we could otherwise creatively engage some of the great masses of newly unemployed to fill in the gaps. The truth is that I can't even begin to answer this, and the situation is aggravating because it has as much to do with America's shitty pre-COVID problems as it does the realities of the pandemic.
   6721. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 09, 2020 at 10:20 PM (#5962015)
Well, the 993 deaths reported Tuesday for the U.S. at Worldometers are looking less like holiday catch-up and more like just a regular Tuesday (which is always the highest day of the week, holiday or not). New deaths today 960 on the heels of 890 yesterday. Total deaths for the last seven days (July 3 - 9, 4,374) are now higher than not only the seven previous days (June 26 - July 2, 3,916), but also the seven days before that (June 19-25, 4,294).

One oddity about today's numbers. Four states were over 100 deaths today: California, for I believe the third day in a row; Texas, for the second day in a row; Florida, for the first time, but not a surprise (maybe a little surprised they got here this quickly). And New Jersey. New Jersey was averaging 26 deaths per day for the week ending July 6th. For the three days since then - 50, 64, 106. New Jersey's new case numbers have been relatively flat and relatively small for the last couple of months - their 7-day average for new cases slipped below 400 on June 19th and has stayed there ever since. I don't know if the state has changed its standard for calling a death "COVID" and is retroactively adding more cases or if they found some records they had missed several months ago in the heat of the crush they faced in March-April. No clue but it's odd.

But regardless of New Jersey, no question now that U.S. deaths are on the rise once again. Not unexpected news. But certainly bad news.

Oh, and 61,067 new cases nationwide. The U.S. hit 40,000 new cases for the first time on June 25th. They have been above 40,000 every day since. They hit 50,000 new cases for the first time on July 1st. They have been above 50,000 for 7 of the 9 days since then - the exceptions being July 4th (49,818) and July 5th (which was a Sunday and would have involved mostly reporting new cases identified on Saturday, July 4th). The U.S. hit 60,000 new cases for the first time yesterday and they've been above it ever since (which is only two days, but still). I thought some of these states were pulling back, reintroducing some restrictions, and what-not. I guess it takes some time for that to show up in the data.
   6722. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 09, 2020 at 10:23 PM (#5962016)
The Frisco, TX, school district (suburban North Dallas, where 2016 straight-ticket voters split 62/37 Trump) released last month a survey of district parents taken in late May about their preference for reopening plans.

44% of parents favored starting school normally with additional safety and health measures in place
33% were interested in a blended approach (some days on campus, some days online)
22% favored eLearning (100% online)

Now that was late May, and things have certainly changed here since then. OTOH, Frisco is an epicenter of the youth sports industrial complex ("Best Place to Raise an Athlete" raves Men's Journal magazine) and I wonder how many parents who have sunk tens of thousands of dollars (way more than 4 years of tuition and board at most schools) into years of travelball, summer camps, private tutoring, etc, are now wondering how their kid investment is going to get that prestigious D-I scholarship to Southwest Middle Nowhere State University if their sports season is cancelled. I wonder what a survey taken now would look like.
   6723. PreservedFish Posted: July 09, 2020 at 10:34 PM (#5962019)
Funny, I just clicked on Facebook and found a rejoinder to my position:

Teachers are not responsible for the recovery of the economy, babysitting children, or "getting us back to normal." Stop trying to guilt us into risking our lives for the government's failure to act.


I don't want to guilt anyone into anything - I wish that all employees in risky positions would be able to stay home if they preferred, with pay whenever possible (at least for those that are higher risk), and I'd gladly vote to make it happen for teachers.

I guess in my thinking, teaching is very close to an "essential" job. The quote is snide but the fact is that the schools do serve a very important role in "babysitting" kids and allowing parents to go make (and spend) money, among other things. That's how it always has been.
   6724. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 10:38 PM (#5962020)
My sense is that Katy is Houston's equivalent, $70M football stadium and all.
   6725. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 09, 2020 at 10:42 PM (#5962022)
I'll see your $70M football stadium and raise you not only one $120M MLS stadium that we "share" with the soccer team, but also the ~$150M domed stadium we built for Jerry Jones and "share" with the Cowboys.
   6726. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 10:55 PM (#5962025)
jesus! I'm surprised your coach isn't listed among the top salaries. (Katy's got 3 of the top 10).

The Frisco Bowl's hosted in the MLS stadium?
   6727. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 11:03 PM (#5962028)
Kiko,

It sounds like a fair number of those deaths are backfill.
   6728. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 09, 2020 at 11:03 PM (#5962029)
At the Hill’s Future of Healthcare Summit last year, the outlet’s editor-at-large Steve Clemons asked Dr. Anthony Fauci to describe his nightmare public health scenario. His answer: “[A] respiratory borne illness that spreads rapidly, that’s new, mainly, there’s no background immunity in the population, and that almost turns out to be a brand new pandemic influenza.”

The nation’s leading infectious disease expert went on to say that “when you have a respiratory illness that easily spreads, and has a high degree of morbidity and some degree of mortality, you could have a public health catastrophe.”


“I’m so sorry that I was so prescient when we had our last interview, Steve,” he told Clemons per Business Insider. “I really am very sorry about that. When we had our conversation last year, I said this is what I would be most worried about. I’m so sorry that it occurred, and occurred so quickly after that interview.”


link
   6729. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 09, 2020 at 11:05 PM (#5962030)
I'm surprised your coach isn't listed among the top salaries. (Katy's got 3 of the top 10).

I'm surprised too because we've also got 10 or 11 of them on the district payroll. Sure, we've got these two colossal palaces for the eternal glory of high school football, but attendance is about 2500 per game I would guess. But Jay Ajayi is a product of the district so it was all worth it.

The Frisco Bowl's hosted in the MLS stadium?

Indeed it is, as is the NCAA 1-AA football championship.
   6730. Jay Z Posted: July 09, 2020 at 11:10 PM (#5962032)
A scenario where schools are closed or 100% online, but people are still going out to bars and bowling alleys - that would be an absurdity and an injustice.


That has been my complaint all along.

I'm a parent. I do not go out to bars or restaurants as long as this is going on.

The bars and the restaurants are where this is being spread. It's not going to be the schools. Everything we know shows that kids do not transmit this to adults. Almost always the other way around, if kids get it. I will repeat this as often as necessary.

PreservedFish, you'd really pay the same amount for the inferior 100% virtual teaching? You wouldn't want your taxed lowered and positions cut? If it's a long term deal, the positions need to be cut.
   6731. PreservedFish Posted: July 09, 2020 at 11:19 PM (#5962033)
Huh? I thought I made it clear that virtual teaching is inadequate.
   6732. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 09, 2020 at 11:42 PM (#5962036)
Fish,

Thanks for the reply. I agree that it is absolutely desirable and overwhelmingly more socially valuable than bars and restaurants being open (but kids don't vote and waitstaff do?. I wonder if more creative use of teacher-ed students and alternative spaces (rec centers, public libraries, places of worship, high schools if those are held online) could have mitigated the risks, but no one seems to have been interested in thinking that far ahead. Much of the initial lifting on that has to come at the state level, at least in Texas, and probably in other states, to authorize the sort of changes I mentioned. But that hasn't happened. And it would take money to make it happen. I don't know if schools are liked and supported where you are; here not so much (except for those football teams Pat Rapper and I had been talking about/)

It's probably also worth noting that the lack of access to computers and Internet infrastructure is atypical for so-called first-world countries. Even so, we're ahead of what happened during the 1918-19 flu.
   6733. Jay Z Posted: July 09, 2020 at 11:42 PM (#5962037)
I don't want to guilt anyone into anything - I wish that all employees in risky positions would be able to stay home if they preferred, with pay whenever possible (at least for those that are higher risk), and I'd gladly vote to make it happen for teachers.


I guess if you'd vote to make it happen for teachers, you'd be fine with 100% virtual at the same pay. Or reduced pay? Kind of seems if some are willing to teach in person, they should get paid more.

It's also possible that people who hate paying for school will try to lever all of this into permanent 100% virtual at reduced tax rate.

Honestly, some of the pay is for "babysitting", being virtually present. The longer this goes on, economy is going to come into play.
   6734. Ron J Posted: July 09, 2020 at 11:46 PM (#5962038)
#6730 Thing is that everything we know is based on scenarios that are more cautious than what the US is likely prepared to do. Color me skeptical that we'd see small class sizes for instance.

And it's not that kids don't get it. I can think of at least 3 cases where entire classes have gotten it (Quebec, BC and a major outbreak in Israel) and I haven't actually looked -- these are incidents that I became aware of in passing. What I've seen is that best we can tell all things being equal kids are about half as likely to contract it and about half as likely to pass it on. (and yes, lots of weasel wording here because the truth is that there's a great deal of uncertainty here)

As things stand, I suspect nervous parents will help to keep class sizes somewhat smaller -- though of course keeping kids at home wouldn't be a good option for plenty of parents.

Dunno. I honestly hope I'm wrong here because I don't expect things to go well when schools attempt to reopen in places where the virus hasn't been at least minimally contained. And I think the pressure to reopen the schools will be too great for most places.
   6735. Jay Z Posted: July 09, 2020 at 11:48 PM (#5962039)
Even so, we're ahead of what happened during the 1918-19 flu.


The 1918-19 flu had three main peaks that only lasted a couple of months each. Economically that was probably easier to deal with. I expect things opened back up between the peaks. If COVID-19 drags and drags, we won't be able to do that, and it will likely get ugly.
   6736. PreservedFish Posted: July 09, 2020 at 11:57 PM (#5962041)
I guess if you'd vote to make it happen for teachers, you'd be fine with 100% virtual at the same pay.


No, I think virtual schooling sucks donkey nuts.

I would gladly add to my property tax bill (and to those of my neighbors in bigger houses) if it allowed school to carry on in person in a way that also allowed at-risk teachers to stay home. Naturally, any such solution would cost money. Maybe it's hiring some out of work bartender to be the proctor while beloved, aged and hypertensive Mrs. Jefferson teaches the class on a television screen from the comfort of her own home.
   6737. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 10, 2020 at 12:04 AM (#5962043)
I don't know if schools are liked and supported where you are; here not so much (except for those football teams Pat Rapper and I had been talking about/)

Oh, they're supported vigorously in Frisco... just that football is extra-specially supported. The baseball, softball, basketball, etc teams all play in perfectly cromulent high school athletic facilities. It's only football where no expense is spared. But our electorate also loves them some bond proposals for any reason at all.... schools, roads, a parking garage for city hall, a skateboard park, a municipal athletic center that rivals private-sector gyms in both scope and membership fees, you name it. The hardest part of any bond election here is just getting it to the ballot. I've been living here for over 20 years and the only tax/bond measure I can remember failing was when a school district election to raise the tax rate was being held on the same day they were celebrating the opening of said $150M domed stadium they had just paid to build. Bad optics or unlucky scheduling, take your pick. So they cried poor for a couple of years while overcrowding classrooms and raising student fees for everything out of spite then put the measure on the ballot again two years later, where it passed handily. Oh wait, a bond election for an arts theater failed too. The stage was too small for arena football, I guess.
   6738. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 10, 2020 at 12:36 AM (#5962045)
I guess if you'd vote to make it happen for teachers, you'd be fine with 100% virtual at the same pay. Or reduced pay? Kind of seems if some are willing to teach in person, they should get paid more.
It's also possible that people who hate paying for school will try to lever all of this into permanent 100% virtual at reduced tax rate.
Honestly, some of the pay is for "babysitting", being virtually present. The longer this goes on, economy is going to come into play.


That sounds believably American (provided we continue to finance stadia and sports coaches); we already expect teachers to buy supplies for students. It's a great way to further damage the economy, especially with of foreign college students down and the H-1B program suspended.

Sure, you could pay more -- hazardous duty pay -- but I believe we don't lower pay for firemen when during the hours they're not fighting fires. I don't know how K-12 works, but I can assure you that online college teaching is more work, less reward. I should get maid more for doing it.
   6739. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 10, 2020 at 12:59 AM (#5962047)
Sure, you could pay more -- hazardous duty pay -- but I believe we don't lower pay for firemen when during the hours they're not fighting fires. I don't know how K-12 works, but I can assure you that online college teaching is more work, less reward. I should get maid more for doing it.
just offer extra credit for turning assignments in early, and everything else will take care of itself.
   6740. Jay Z Posted: July 10, 2020 at 01:00 AM (#5962048)
we already expect teachers to buy supplies for students.


Not where I live. We are given a list and have to go shopping. We don't have an expense account, comes out of our pocket.
   6741. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 10, 2020 at 01:02 AM (#5962050)
So for 5 weeks, the CDC had been publishing excess deaths on Wednesday calculated by using totals through that very day, multiplied by a lag factor. This method tended to undercount the current week and the three weeks prior fairly significantly. They haven't been publishing the current weeks or prior week's estimate, have generally found a negative excess deaths for the week 2 weeks prior, and only a small amount for 3 weeks prior.

If you are a little intelligent about using their data, since it was consistent week-to-week, you were able to correct for this to at least get a decent(ish) number for 3 weeks ago. Complicating matters, they separately published updated weekly summary totals on Friday, but for this summary only used data through Thursday, which meant people calculating excess deaths own their own (rather than just using the CDC calculations) using this Friday publication data tended to undercount weekly deaths as well due to the missing day of data. But, at least the CDC's method was consistent for a few weeks in a row.

Cut to last week. The CDC again published their excess deaths on Wednesday, but used incomplete data for the week, showing weekly totals that only amounted to total deaths through a few days earlier (Sunday, more or less). Since they ended up using the same lag multiplier, their excess death totals were way low for last week. It was so ridiculous, they didn't even publish the 2 week's prior total (in this case, ending 6/20) like they usually do, since it would have been way below baseline (like, 20,000 deaths short or something ridiculous). The prior two weeks before that (6/13 and 6/6) also contained results that were way too low. To make matters worse, since Friday was a holiday, they published weekly deaths on Thursday, using Wednesday's data, which was a day short, so all the people calculating excess deaths on their own ended up with ridiculously low numbers.

Now this week they are at it again. Wednesday's report used figures through Sunday or Monday, again leading to ridiculously low numbers (though this time they actually published the prior week's numbers, showing 13,000 fewer deaths than average for the week ending June 27). And, unless they use corrected numbers in their weekly report tomorrow, they are going to have incomplete numbers also in their report tomorrow. You can see this if you add up the weekly totals on the July 9 report, which don't add up to the total at the top of the column. (If you are clicking on this link late, you can find the same report in CDC stacks after a few days.) For July 9 they were 16,000 short. Going back the last 6 weeks, except for a few days last week and this week, they have always added up exactly, so it appears to be a data error). The aggregate of the individual state totals adds up to the correct number, inclusive of the 16,000.

It's hard for me to comprehend the rank incompetence.
   6742. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 10, 2020 at 01:08 AM (#5962051)
It's hard for me to comprehend the rank incompetence.
it's not incompetence.
   6743. Hank Gillette Posted: July 10, 2020 at 01:23 AM (#5962052)
Huh. They must have reliable data that the virus isn’t readily transmitted at conference games.


They are going to limit games to ten schools or fewer. That could be problematical, since most of the major conferences have more than 10 members. The Big 12 is good with only 10 members, but the Big 10 has 14.
   6744. Hank Gillette Posted: July 10, 2020 at 01:25 AM (#5962053)
What do you do with them? What do you do about already understaffed, overcrowded classrooms? I'd like to hear.


Take a bunch of the money we’ve been wasting on military hardware that we will never use and spend it on education: more, less crowded schools, more teachers who don’t have to spend their own money for supplies for their students.

I know that is crazy-talk, but a man can dream.
   6745. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 10, 2020 at 01:30 AM (#5962054)
Take a bunch of the money we’ve been wasting on military hardware that we will never use and spend it on education: more, less crowded schools, more teachers who don’t have to spend their own money for supplies for their students.

I know that is crazy-talk, but a man can dream.
that's a padd'lin
   6746. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 10, 2020 at 01:31 AM (#5962055)
We don't have an expense account


Nor do teachers, and the tax deduction ain't much


They are going to limit games to ten schools or fewer. That could be problematical, since most of the major conferences have more than 10 members./quote]

They don't play all conference opponents anymore; haven't since things got large. Notre Dame would have been in a fix if they hadn't gone in with the ACC a few years back. Only one B10G game scheduled this year (Wisconsin).
   6747. Hank Gillette Posted: July 10, 2020 at 01:50 AM (#5962056)
I have a nephew who participated in protests in NYC back in May. He was arrested, and held in a cell for 10 hours (seven in handcuffs). He just moved to North Carolina preparing to start law school at Chapel Hill in the fall. Since two of his brothers live in the Raleigh-Durham area, he got tested for the coronavirus. He tested negative, but tested positive for antibodies (he was never sick).

Any idea how accurate the antibody tests are? I know it probably varies depending on who made them. I just don’t want him running around believing that he is immune if the test may have been inaccurate.
   6748. Hank Gillette Posted: July 10, 2020 at 01:56 AM (#5962057)
I have Type 1 diabetes and therefore appear to be something like 3x as likely to die or suffer severe illness as someone else my age. Still something of a longshot, but scary nonetheless.


I have Type A blood, and the claim is people with Type A get hit much harder than other blood types, plus I am over 65.

I also saw something about people with DNA inherited from Neanderthals may be at increased risk, which makes me wonder how Trump has avoided it.
   6749. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 10, 2020 at 02:12 AM (#5962058)
Hank,

Our findings come mainly from 38 studies that provided results based on the time since people first noticed symptoms.

Antibody tests one week after first symptoms only detected 30% of people who had COVID‐19. Accuracy increased in week 2 with 70% detected, and was highest in week 3 (more than 90% detected). Little evidence was available after week 3. Tests gave false positive results in 2% of those without COVID‐19.

Results from IgG/IgM tests three weeks after symptoms started suggested that if 1000 people had antibody tests, and 50 (5%) of them really had COVID‐19 (as we might expect in a national screening survey):
‐ 58 people would test positive for COVID‐19. Of these, 12 people (21%) would not have COVID‐19 (false positive result).
‐ 942 people would test negative for COVID‐19. Of these, 4 people (0.4%) would actually have COVID‐19 (false negative result).

If we tested 1000 healthcare workers (in a high‐risk setting) who had had symptoms, and 500 (50%) of them really had COVID‐19:
‐ 464 people would test positive for COVID‐19. Of these, 7 people (2%) would not have COVID‐19 (false positive result).
‐ 537 people would test negative for COVID‐19. Of these, 43 (8%) would actually have COVID‐19 (false negative result).

We did not find convincing differences in accuracy for different types of antibody test.

How reliable were the results of the studies of this review?
Our confidence in the evidence is limited for several reasons. In general, studies were small, did not use the most reliable methods and did not report their results fully. Often, they did not include patients with COVID‐19 who may have had a false negative result on PCR, and took their data for people without COVID‐19 from records of tests done before COVID‐19 arose. This may have affected test accuracy, but it is impossible to identify by how much.
   6750. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 10, 2020 at 07:12 AM (#5962065)
I also saw something about people with DNA inherited from Neanderthals may be at increased risk, which makes me wonder how Trump has avoided it.


Racist!
   6751. Tony S Posted: July 10, 2020 at 09:35 AM (#5962073)
The bars and the restaurants are where this is being spread. It's not going to be the schools. Everything we know shows that kids do not transmit this to adults. Almost always the other way around, if kids get it. I will repeat this as often as necessary.


Has this been studied to the point where such a conclusion can be drawn?

Because I doubt this is an isolated occurrence.

Or this.
   6752. PreservedFish Posted: July 10, 2020 at 09:56 AM (#5962076)
No. "Everything we know shows that kids do not transmit this to adults" is a huge exaggeration. It would be more accurate to say "our scanty evidence suggests that kids might be less likely to transmit the virus."
   6753. Jay Z Posted: July 10, 2020 at 11:07 AM (#5962086)
Or this.


That was a virtual school with three adult teachers in the room only. No kids.
   6754. Howie Menckel Posted: July 10, 2020 at 11:13 AM (#5962088)
also:

"Byrd had asthma and several other health issues."

she was 61.

that article has absolutely nothing to do with kids - and everything to do with those in the dangerous zone absolutely having to isolate. a tragic loss, as she sounds like she was a wonderful teacher.
   6755. Jay Z Posted: July 10, 2020 at 11:46 AM (#5962092)
also:

"Byrd had asthma and several other health issues."

she was 61.

that article has absolutely nothing to do with kids - and everything to do with those in the dangerous zone absolutely having to isolate. a tragic loss, as she sounds like she was a wonderful teacher.


It's three people doing virtual. My church has more people involved with the virtual broadcasts (eight or so.) The victim was high risk, but as far as number of people three is one more than a married couple living together.
   6756. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 10, 2020 at 12:00 PM (#5962096)

Help Stop the Spread of COVID-19 in Children
Tips to Protect Children During a COVID-19 Outbreak
Updated June 28, 2020
   6757. Eudoxus Posted: July 10, 2020 at 12:02 PM (#5962097)
40 out of 50 states now have per capita death rates above 100 per million. (I remember when that seemed like a terrible level to reach. It's so easy inadvertently to goalpost shift when thinking about this.) I think Hawaii is the only of the remaining ten that I would be confident will stay under 100. 17 states between 100 and 200; I suspect all of them will go above 200 eventually. (Side note: Wisconsin is kind of a weird outlier. Currently at 139, while being bordered by Iowa (235), Minnesota (271), Illinois (578), and Michigan (628).

On virtual teaching: I do think the quality level is at least somewhat tied to remediable technology issues. I've been doing a bunch of one-on-one meetings with graduate students via Zoom. Those are basically fine -- close to 90% of normal educational value, I'd say. Occasionally there are points when being able to write stuff down would be more useful, but Zoom whiteboard is a workable substitute for that. I've also been doing high-level math-for-high-schoolers stuff with groups of about 10 students; that's much less satisfactory. The online whiteboard tools are just too small to do any substantial math, and it's too hard to track audience and math-on-whiteboard at the same time. But a second monitor, a portable whiteboard, and a good camera I could aim at the whiteboard and easily zoom in and out would, I think get me from current ~50% online value up to at least 75%. I wait with bated breath to see whether we are, as a nation, going to invest in such resources for our teachers.
   6758. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 10, 2020 at 12:16 PM (#5962105)
I agree with PF that opening the schools should be priority #1. We need the pillars of society to remain in place.

Frankly, bars/nightclubs/taverns/saloons should close for 2 years. Restaurants in-room dining just about the same thing.

The fact that we're opening bars and restaurants and movie theaters and other bullshit, then once again have to shutdown "elective" surgeries (Texas) and dental offices is insane. The whole world sees us as a bunch of morons.

As for compromised teachers, they need to retire. We somehow force Amazon, Walmart, and millions of other employees to work through this. I don't see why teachers are a special case.

This all really really really ####### sucks.

Side note: My 79 year old father was admitted to the hospital overnight with probable covid. Obese, 40+ year smoker (he did quit ~10-12 years ago), diabetic. I do not feel confident in his chances.

This all really really really really ####### sucks.


   6759. Ron J Posted: July 10, 2020 at 12:19 PM (#5962106)
#6758 Best wishes for your father. Yes, this really sucks.
   6760. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 10, 2020 at 12:20 PM (#5962107)
Good luck to your dad, Barry.
   6761. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 10, 2020 at 12:21 PM (#5962109)
Really sorry to hear about your dad, Barry, and best wishes.
   6762. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 10, 2020 at 12:30 PM (#5962110)
As for compromised teachers, they need to retire.


By the time the lawsuits are done, that's a very expensive plan. It also neglects the fact that large numbers of parents are not comfortable sending their kids to school, and in Texas that is very much a reasonable position. And it neglects to answer the question, where do you suddenly get those replacement teachers from? Factor in that people, including teachers, will get COVID and have to self-isolate, how big is your pipeline, anyway? Amazon can get away with it because those are no-skill jobs. If that's what you want for public ed, well ...

Yes, Texas has stopped elective surgeries again because Texas led the way in the chant I keep hearing here, that Amurka needs to get back to work and doesn't need a plan because we're Amurkins. And so the state tore up plans in place in counties that are now serious hotspots without poor facilities; the state party is appealing the Houston Mayor's directive to cancel the in person convention, and the TEA yesterday dropped directives that school planning, such as it is, into chaos.
   6763. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 10, 2020 at 12:51 PM (#5962112)
40 out of 50 states now have per capita death rates above 100 per million. (I remember when that seemed like a terrible level to reach. It's so easy inadvertently to goalpost shift when thinking about this.) I think Hawaii is the only of the remaining ten that I would be confident will stay under 100.


It's easy to gloss over the tiny numbers that don't really affect whether the U.S. is reporting 600 or 800 or 900 deaths per day. But Montana, for instance, reported 3 deaths today and 2 deaths yesterday. Doesn't sound like much. But that's as many deaths as they reported from April 30th through June 25th - and pushed Montana ahead of Alaska in death rate (still 3rd-lowest in the U.S.).
   6764. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 10, 2020 at 01:16 PM (#5962114)
I wait with bated breath to see whether we are, as a nation, going to invest in such resources for our teachers.


I admire your faith, Eudoxus! I think that some of us, as wealthy suburban school districts may do that (if there's money left over from the football stadium) but in the cities where connectivity is itself a myth? In poor rural districts? There's a yuuuuge gap between the talk of the social and economic value of education (all true!) and the actuality.

(10 years ago, I set up a second monitor of an editing project I was doing, and I never took it down. It very much helps with online teaching.)
   6765. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 10, 2020 at 01:16 PM (#5962115)
Last page y'all touched on how everyone seems to be personally loosening up.

Even though we've been very careful, we let our 17 year old go back to work as a camp counselor for the city Summer camp. Her mental health was terrible during lockdown. She has worked 30+ hours a week for the last 4 weeks, and probably will the rest of the Summer. She and all her coworkers wear face shields, the kids all wear masks. To enroll your child, you had to commit to a 5-week session, to minimize turnover. Most Summer programs you pick and choose individual weeks. They spend as much time as possible outside, which has been difficult with the recent heat.

So, we're taking that large risk.

Both our kids struggled with virtual learning, and the negative mental health aspects of being home constantly. All in all, I'm in favor of getting back to school as soon as possible.

Maybe I'm insane. A 17 year old in town died of rumored covid.

All we're left with is bad choices.
   6766. Tony S Posted: July 10, 2020 at 01:33 PM (#5962122)

I admire your faith, Eudoxus! I think that some of us, as wealthy suburban school districts may do that (if there's money left over from the football stadium) but in the cities where connectivity is itself a myth? In poor rural districts? There's a yuuuuge gap between the talk of the social and economic value of education (all true!) and the actuality.


Bill James touched on something similar to this in one of his Abstracts. He was commenting on those who wring their hands at the fact that baseball players make more money than cancer researchers. Don't have the actual quote handy (my old Abstracts were lost in a move...grrrr), but it went something like "We, as a society, are far more interested in having winning baseball teams than we are in finding a cure for cancer. We might like to claim we don't, but it is inevitable that our actual values are ultimately expressed in dollars and cents. Our economic priorities don't reflect what our values should be; they reflect what our values actually are." Again, not an exact quote, but that's the gist of it.

We see this in the wages we pay our EMT workers, which was discussed a couple weeks ago. We see this in the way school districts allocate their resources, as you pointed out. And we're seeing this in our response to COVID, which has varied widely among jurisdictions in this country.


   6767. Ron J Posted: July 10, 2020 at 01:47 PM (#5962126)
#6766

One of the unwritten laws of economics is that it is impossible, truly impossible, to prevent the values of society from manifesting themselves in dollars and cents. This is, ultimately, why we pay athletes so much money: that it is very important to us to be represented by winning teams. The standard example is cancer research; letters pop up all the time saying that it is absurd for baseball players to make twenty times as much money as cancer researchers. But the hard, unavoidable fact is that we are, as a nation, far more interested in having good baseball teams than we are in finding a cure for cancer. ... Dollars and cents are an incarnation of our values. Economic realities represent not what we should believe, not what we like to say that we believe, not what we might choose to believe in a more perfect world, but what our beliefs really are. However much we complain about it, nobody can stop that truth from manifesting itself.

EDIT: I should note though that teachers as a whole make a lot more money than baseball players. It's just that there a way more teachers splitting their share.

Cancer research though. … Honestly not sure.
   6768. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 10, 2020 at 02:00 PM (#5962132)
Laissez les bon temps rouler!
Louisiana is now one of the leading states in the nation for most new coronavirus cases. ... It’s a trajectory that could spark another shutdown. But you wouldn’t know it by listening to state Rep. Danny McCormick.

“The Constitution is being shredded before our very eyes,” McCormick claimed in a video he released this week railing against the new mandate to wear a mask in public in Shreveport. In the video, McCormick says mask mandates — one of the key preventative measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, especially in urban hotspots such as Shreveport — are an attack on “liberty.” Then he attempts to destroy a mask with a chainsaw. (at 0:17 in the following video) McCormick also makes the goading claim that people who don’t wear masks will be treated like “Jews in Nazi Germany.” (at 1:20 in the following video)


VIDEO: Louisiana State Rep Danny McCormick Chainsaws a Facemask

Continuing.....
Congressman Clay Higgins represents Lake Charles and Calcasieu Parish, one of the most worrying regions in the state, and has repeated conspiracy theories about the coronavirus, made false claims about the efficacy of masks, and called wearing a mask part of the “dehumanization of the children of God.”


Also in Lake Charles yesterday....

Lake Charles hospitals reach ICU bed limit as COVID-19 cases surge in SWLA

But perhaps all is not totally lost.
For Lake Charles mayor Nic Hunter, the time has come to plead with the public to take the advice of local health leaders.

“God help us if we've come to a point in our society where during the middle of a pandemic,” he said, “if we want to know medical or scientific information, we are trusting a meme on Facebook, or what my brother-in-law overheard at the supermarket, more than guys like (lead physicians at local hospitals) Dr. Tim Haman and Dr. Mac Jordan.”
   6769. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: July 10, 2020 at 02:16 PM (#5962133)
Take a bunch of the money we’ve been wasting on military hardware that we will never use and spend it on education: more, less crowded schools, more teachers who don’t have to spend their own money for supplies for their students.

The problem is that when you give money to "schools", most of it doesn't filter down to the classroom; it gets absorbed by the (if you will) "educational-industrial complex", winding up in some administrator's pet project/pocket. This is especially true of colleges, where tuition has increased ten-fold since 1970...after you adjust for inflation. (In a bizarre coincidence, colleges have a lot more administrators than they did back then.) I'm glad I went to college in the 80s, back when it was still possible to pay for tuition with a part-time job.

virtual schooling sucks donkey nuts

I want this on a T-shirt. Now.
   6770. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 10, 2020 at 02:16 PM (#5962134)
Then he attempts to destroy a mask with a chainsaw.


His AR-15 must be out for repairs.
   6771. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 10, 2020 at 02:22 PM (#5962137)
One of the unwritten laws of economics is that it is impossible, truly impossible, to prevent the values of society from manifesting themselves in dollars and cents.


Yep.

And one state over from here, Nic Hunter's a good man (on this, anyway) fighting a losing battle.
   6772. base ball chick Posted: July 10, 2020 at 02:34 PM (#5962142)
. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 10, 2020 at 02:00 PM (#5962132)
Laissez les bon temps rouler!

Louisiana is now one of the leading states in the nation for most new coronavirus cases. ... It’s a trajectory that could spark another shutdown. But you wouldn’t know it by listening to state Rep. Danny McCormick.

“The Constitution is being shredded before our very eyes,” McCormick claimed in a video he released this week railing against the new mandate to wear a mask in public in Shreveport. In the video, McCormick says mask mandates — one of the key preventative measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, especially in urban hotspots such as Shreveport — are an attack on “liberty.” Then he attempts to destroy a mask with a chainsaw. (at 0:17 in the following video) McCormick also makes the goading claim that people who don’t wear masks will be treated like “Jews in Nazi Germany.” (at 1:20 in the following video)


- bangs head repeatedly

i really can't say what i think should be done to people who won't wear masks because i'm pretty sure it is against mah religion and fer SHER i'd get banned



Congressman Clay Higgins represents Lake Charles and Calcasieu Parish, one of the most worrying regions in the state, and has repeated conspiracy theories about the coronavirus, made false claims about the efficacy of masks, and called wearing a mask part of the “dehumanization of the children of God.”


- "dehumanization"??? srsly wot?????



Also in Lake Charles yesterday....

Lake Charles hospitals reach ICU bed limit as COVID-19 cases surge in SWLA

- but fer god's sake don't wear masks, social distance or stay out of bars

But perhaps all is not totally lost.

For Lake Charles mayor Nic Hunter, the time has come to plead with the public to take the advice of local health leaders.

“God help us if we've come to a point in our society where during the middle of a pandemic,” he said, “if we want to know medical or scientific information, we are trusting a meme on Facebook, or what my brother-in-law overheard at the supermarket, more than guys like (lead physicians at local hospitals) Dr. Tim Haman and Dr. Mac Jordan.”


- and this hunter guys is a repub too. maybe not all hope is lost for that party

i guess the heat ain't killing offn this virus like it was supposed to. it is a hunnert degrees - feels like 120 according to the weather report - and even the Dogz are not real too enthusiastic about going out

   6773. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 10, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5962149)
Both my parents have covid. This sucks. Mom with bad cold symptoms, so far.
   6774. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 10, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5962151)
I'm sorry to hear that, BLB. Hoping for the best here.
   6775. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 10, 2020 at 03:26 PM (#5962152)
I'm sorry, Barry. Best of luck to both of them and to you.
   6776. SoSH U at work Posted: July 10, 2020 at 03:29 PM (#5962154)
Sorry for the news BLB. Best wishes.

   6777. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: July 10, 2020 at 03:39 PM (#5962157)
Sorry to hear that Barry. Good luck to them and to you.
   6778. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 10, 2020 at 03:42 PM (#5962158)
i really can't say what i think should be done to people who won't wear masks because i'm pretty sure it is against mah religion and fer SHER i'd get banned
if i haven't gotten banned yet, i doubt there's much you could do to get banned, either.
   6779. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 10, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5962162)
All we're left with is bad choices.


Yes, and this is where good planning starts.
Good luck to both parents, Barry, and strength to you & your family.


A 17 year old in town died of rumored covid.

it happens more than we like to admit. There's comfort for many in believing that it gets only the people who's "lived their lives."
   6780. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 10, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5962164)
BLB best wishes. And may you and your circle choose wisely between additional risk and sanity.
   6781. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 10, 2020 at 04:25 PM (#5962167)
Here is what’s going to keep #BlueJays players in their stadium/hotel bubble this summer:

Per multiple sources, players have been told penalty if seen outside ballpark is $750,000 fine and potential jail time.

— Scott Mitchell (@ScottyMitchTSN) July 10, 2020
   6782. RJ in TO Posted: July 10, 2020 at 04:35 PM (#5962169)
Here is what’s going to keep #BlueJays players in their stadium/hotel bubble this summer:

Per multiple sources, players have been told penalty if seen outside ballpark is $750,000 fine and potential jail time.

— Scott Mitchell (@ScottyMitchTSN) July 10, 2020
Good. I hope the same applies to any visiting teams, although my preference would be for the Jays to instead play their games in the US instead this season, rather than importing a rotating set of players every couple days.
   6783. DonP stopped lurking Posted: July 10, 2020 at 05:26 PM (#5962179)
In May San Quentin prison had zero cases. 121 inmates were transferred there from the Chino prison, which was in the middle of an outbreak. Now San Quentin has 1300 cases and has had 7 deaths! Unbelievably horrendous handling of that transfer.
   6784. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 10, 2020 at 05:47 PM (#5962181)
Thanks for the kind words, everyone.

Thank goodness for modern medicine, hopefully they can work their magic.
   6785. Hank Gillette Posted: July 10, 2020 at 06:02 PM (#5962185)
I should note though that teachers as a whole make a lot more money than baseball players. It's just that there a way more teachers splitting their share.

Cancer research though. … Honestly not sure.


Counting the 40 man rosters, there are 1200 MLB players (I doubt there are more than a handful of active players that are not on a 40 man roster making big bucks).

I would guess that there are more the 1200 people doing cancer research, although some of them may not be full time.


This is more about the numbers.

There is a lot of competition to get into medical school, but 19,552 graduated from a U.S. medical school in 2018.
In 2017, 12,592 people were awarded doctorates in Life Sciences ( Includes agricultural sciences and natural resources; biological and biomedical sciences; and health sciences).

Only a small percentage of these doctors and PhDs will go into cancer research, but you have 30,000 new potential researchers every year. A medical doctor’s and researcher’s career is much longer than a baseball players. It is harder by an order of magnitude to succeed in MLB, even when success is defined as playing in one or more ML games.

If you asked fans, most of them would say that cancer research is more important than baseball. But most of them don’t spend that much money on baseball, and there aren’t that many obvious ways to increase money for cancer research by individuals. You could donate to the American Cancer Society or similar organizations, but the ACS spends only about 20% of the money it takes in on research.

I think comparing baseball and cancer research in not comparing apples to oranges, but comparing apples to spiders. There is no way to make a meaningful comparison. The laws of economics, even with owners’ efforts to breaks them are going to mandate that the best baseball players are going to make huge amounts of money.

Bill James is a very smart man, but he has what I think are some crazy ideas. Working for a baseball team has really warped his thinking. He recently said that he didn’t think baseball players were worth more than around $500,000 a year, and the really important personnel were in the front office.

I know this post is all over the place, but I hope it makes at least a little sense.
   6786. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 10, 2020 at 06:04 PM (#5962186)
Hmmm, this isn't good:

From the Harris County Public Health Dept's COVID-19 Page
Testing Site Update - Sites will close at 12 PM on Friday, July 10 due to heat advisory. Normal hours will resume on Sat, July 11 unless otherwise noted. Testing codes dated July 10 may be used when sites reopen.


Tomorrow, Sunday, and Monday will all be hotter than today; Tuesday will be the same as today. I get the problem -- even if you circulate testers in and out of a/c, you've got lines of people if it's not drive up (an environmental disaster in its own right) -- but that's a lot of testing time to lose.
   6787. Hank Gillette Posted: July 10, 2020 at 06:11 PM (#5962188)
The problem is that when you give money to "schools", most of it doesn't filter down to the classroom; it gets absorbed by the (if you will) "educational-industrial complex", winding up in some administrator's pet project/pocket.


There is some truth to that, but you could say the same thing about the money we spend on defense.

I don’t have an answer. Many people are easily corrupted by money. There should be better ways to allocate money for the things society find to be important, but even in a more perfect scenario, there is going to be money wasted. Some weapons programs just don’t pan out, and this is not discovered until a lot of money is spent.

The same for educational initiatives. We’ve had public education in the U.S. for well over 100 years. You would think that by now we would know what works and what doesn’t work effectively to teach students, but apparently we don’t.
   6788. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 10, 2020 at 06:20 PM (#5962189)
The laws of economics, even with owners’ efforts to breaks them are going to mandate that the best baseball players are going to make huge amounts of money.

Interesting post. At least the "laws of economics" portion needs some refinement, I think, at least to reflect that flows of money are directed by individual and corporate interests. Salaries are not driven by difficulty but by the availability of money -- hockey is hard, success at women's basketball is not proportionally easier to the extent salary differences would imply; US women's soccer likely is harder to succeed at then men's soccer -- so the salaries reflect where people spend their own and their corporate dollars.
Perhaps you didn't mean it that way, but I too often hear "the laws of economics" invoked as if their ontological status were equivalent to the laws of gravity and inertia.
As for Bill James, send him to the showers, no, wait!
   6789. Hank Gillette Posted: July 10, 2020 at 06:20 PM (#5962190)
I think Hawaii is the only of the remaining ten that I would be confident will stay under 100.


Hawaii had their new cases down to the low single digits by May, but since June, the number of new cases has exploded. The actual raw number are still pretty small, but the last three days (through yesterday) they have had 41, 23, and 36 new cases.
   6790. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 10, 2020 at 06:41 PM (#5962193)
you could say the same thing about the money we spend on defense.


or COVID vaccines, cancer research, starting pitchers, launching spacecraft, ... It's not corruption, it's demand for new things with no guarantees.
   6791. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 10, 2020 at 06:43 PM (#5962194)
Some of my friends who vociferously think teachers should be paid more than baseball players don't like it when I point out the median salary for public school teachers is far greater than the median salary for professional baseball players in this country.
   6792. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 10, 2020 at 06:57 PM (#5962197)
Cute, Pat. Did you crunch the numbers for hourly equivalents?
   6793. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 10, 2020 at 07:17 PM (#5962200)
We’ve long known how essential college football is to the college sports economy, but now that the coronavirus has threatened to cancel a season, we’ve heard administrators be frank about exactly how much they need it. Hundreds of multimillion-dollar businesses would be thrown into peril by the season’s cancellation, and the powers that be are on the record about it. So what would the players get for saving all of these businesses? You know the answer: nothing.

Instead of protecting their players, schools are protecting themselves, as programs such as Ohio State, Tennessee, and Indiana reportedly asked athletes to sign waivers that clear them of legal responsibility if students get the virus. On Wednesday, Ohio State paused its voluntary workouts because of the growing number of athletes who had tested positive, though it didn’t share the numbers publicly.
...
When Clemson’s football team reported to campus in mid-June, only two players tested positive for the coronavirus. After a few weeks of voluntary practice, 37 tested positive. In spite of this, the program has not stopped practicing.
seven Division I football players have died as a result of offseason workouts since 2014, the most recent being Jordan McNair at Maryland in 2018. Given that no NFL players have died during workouts since Korey Stringer in 2000, these deaths seem preventable. Yet they’re often treated as freak accidents rather than parts of a pattern of avoidable tragedy. It’s tough to believe that college football will take the necessary steps to keep players from getting COVID when the sport has failed to take the necessary steps to keep players from dying in practice.


link
   6794. Howie Menckel Posted: July 10, 2020 at 08:28 PM (#5962204)
Bill James touched on something similar to this in one of his Abstracts. He was commenting on those who wring their hands at the fact that baseball players make more money than cancer researchers. Don't have the actual quote handy (my old Abstracts were lost in a move...grrrr), but it went something like "We, as a society, are far more interested in having winning baseball teams than we are in finding a cure for cancer. We might like to claim we don't, but it is inevitable that our actual values are ultimately expressed in dollars and cents. Our economic priorities don't reflect what our values should be; they reflect what our values actually are."


I'd love to see this pitch dissected by a panel of economists and debating experts.
   6795. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 10, 2020 at 08:36 PM (#5962205)
U of Houston doesn't have that problem. It loses tens of millions a year, but its Billionaire Investor regent who took the athletic budget away from the president to protect football.
   6796. PreservedFish Posted: July 10, 2020 at 08:42 PM (#5962206)
Ron J:
One of the unwritten laws of economics is that it is impossible, truly impossible, to prevent the values of society from manifesting themselves in dollars and cents.... Dollars and cents are an incarnation of our values. Economic realities represent not what we should believe, not what we like to say that we believe, not what we might choose to believe in a more perfect world, but what our beliefs really are. However much we complain about it, nobody can stop that truth from manifesting itself.


This seems imprecisely expressed, to such an extent that it might be just wrong.

Watching baseball is fun, and watching cancer research is not. Because baseball is fun to watch, it can monetize the pursuit in a way that cancer research cannot. Most of the billions of dollars that baseball earns is paid by advertisers (directly or indirectly), not by regular folk buying tickets or merchandise or even paying for parking or sustenance at the ballpark. This isn't money that fans directly pay to help their teams win or even to have a pleasant diversion, it's money that businesses pay to take advantage of the fans' captive eyeballs.

Rereading your quote, I think what you've stated is actually a tautology, and probably a self-serving one for economists. "Money reveals all ultimate truths." But you don't prove this, you just assert it. I wonder if it can be proved.

Anyway, the National Cancer Institute gets $6.4 billion annually from the federal government. Not sure how many additional millions or billions are raised via charity, but I imagine it's substantial. Cancer research does indeed at least approach MLB revenue. One might argue that tax allocations don't neatly reflect our deep-seated cultural values, but I would say the same thing goes for the advertising dollars that represent some >50% of MLB revenue.
   6797. Tony S Posted: July 10, 2020 at 08:45 PM (#5962207)
As for Bill James, send him to the showers, no, wait!


TBF, comparing Bill James today to the Bill James of the Abstracts era is like comparing Elvis In Concert to The Sun Sessions.
   6798. Tony S Posted: July 10, 2020 at 08:49 PM (#5962208)
Rereading your quote, I think what you've stated is actually a tautology, and probably a self-serving one for economists. "Money reveals all ultimate truths." But you don't prove this, you just assert it. I wonder if it can be proved.


That wasn't Ron J's quote; he was transcribing the actual Bill James quote from one of his abstracts that I alluded to in the previous post. It's an interesting discussion, either way.
   6799. PreservedFish Posted: July 10, 2020 at 08:53 PM (#5962209)
Oh, thanks for the correction. I suppose Bill won't be defending himself on here then.
   6800. Srul Itza Posted: July 10, 2020 at 09:16 PM (#5962211)
Hawaii had their new cases down to the low single digits by May, but since June, the number of new cases has exploded


Yes, but the number of fatalities has stayed very low. To date, 19 in the entire state.
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