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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 8859 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   6901. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 12, 2020 at 05:59 PM (#5962439)
The wiki page says most people say Def Smith these days. I doubt that’s the influence of rap, but what do I know

The presidential voting shifts over time for the county are quite dramatic.
   6902. Lassus Posted: July 12, 2020 at 06:01 PM (#5962441)
Ah. I see RMc's still an asshole.
   6903. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 12, 2020 at 06:15 PM (#5962443)
San Francisco Chronicle @sfchronicle
JUST IN: More than 40 South Bay school principals are in quarantine after being exposed to COVID-19 during an in-person meeting to plan the reopening of schools.

San Francisco Chronicle @sfchronicle
Some members of the school board questioned Superintendent Stella Kemp’s decision to hold an in-person meeting.

“I know there may be some that question every decision we make but the reality is there is no road map for this pandemic,” Kemp said.
   6904. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 12, 2020 at 06:17 PM (#5962444)

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
BASH: "Yes or no: Can you assure students, teachers and parents that they will not get coronavirus because they’re going back to school?"

DEVOS: "Well, the key is that kids have to get back to school."

#CNNSOTU
   6905. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 12, 2020 at 06:18 PM (#5962445)
Edmundo, I'd say it turned earlier than some other areas. It went wit the general over egghead in 52 and 56, voted against the Catholic in 60, returned to the fold --barely, in 64 but by then LBJ had signed the Civil Rights Act. Then it never looked back. It went Hoover, but Al Smith was also a Catholic.

It may no longer by a dry county, but it's not very wet, either.
   6906. PreservedFish Posted: July 12, 2020 at 06:25 PM (#5962446)
BASH: "Yes or no: Can you assure students, teachers and parents that they will not get coronavirus because they’re going back to school?"

DEVOS: "Well, the key is that kids have to get back to school."


Be fair: this is an absurd question.

The only possible answer is "No." Not surprised that she doesn't say "no," because she probably has reasonable fears that it would generate an immediate headline and finger pointing and perhaps even outrage. Our media environment doesn't really allow for the type of nuance that's needed to make good decisions in complex situations. (Not that I suspect DeVos is generally one for nuance or good decisions).
   6907. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 12, 2020 at 06:26 PM (#5962447)
San Francisco Chronicle @sfchronicle
JUST IN: More than 40 South Bay school principals are in quarantine after being exposed to COVID-19 during an in-person meeting to plan the reopening of schools.


Sheer ####### brilliance.
   6908. Lassus Posted: July 12, 2020 at 06:27 PM (#5962448)
Be fair: this is an absurd question

Yeah, I agree with that.

But any non-evil person with half a brain could still have answered better.
   6909. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 12, 2020 at 06:38 PM (#5962450)
It's not just the media, Fish, though I agree. Where do you find people comfortable with uncertainty? Banishing it as been a national and global project for over a century (I don't mean science, I mean governance/administration) and stop to consider how much of the economy is based on selling security.

ETA

From James Downie's column in the WaPo

“We know that children get the virus at a far lower rate than any other part of the population,” DeVos claimed on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “There’s — there is no — nothing in the data that would suggest that kids being back in school is dangerous to them.”


I don't know if that's what prompted ash's question but, if it did, be fair, Fish: SHE ASKED FOR IT.

(And I'll be fair, too, You didn't have that context)
   6910. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 12, 2020 at 06:41 PM (#5962451)
Be fair: this is an absurd question.
"what newspapers do you read?"

"i'm illiterate and i get all my information from fox news, the daily stormer and rush limbaugh"
   6911. PreservedFish Posted: July 12, 2020 at 06:47 PM (#5962452)
“There’s — there is no — nothing in the data that would suggest that kids being back in school is dangerous to them.”

I don't know if that's what prompted ash's question but, if it did, be fair, Fish: SHE ASKED FOR IT.


Oooh, good point. I retract my comment. Not an absurd question, given what she said.
   6912. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 12, 2020 at 07:07 PM (#5962459)
My mom was also admitted to the hospital yesterday. She is doing well and expected to be discharged tomorrow, after two nights. My dad is still there, still having difficulties.

To repeat what I reported a long time ago in the covid thread: my democrat Dad didn't think covid was that big a deal, and was still going to stores 3 times a week. My GOP Mom hasn't been anywhere since early March. While in the hospital, he has told me a couple times over the phone "this thing is the real deal." UGH.

   6913. tshipman Posted: July 12, 2020 at 07:09 PM (#5962460)
Be fair: this is an absurd question.

The only possible answer is "No." Not surprised that she doesn't say "no," because she probably has reasonable fears that it would generate an immediate headline and finger pointing and perhaps even outrage. Our media environment doesn't really allow for the type of nuance that's needed to make good decisions in complex situations. (Not that I suspect DeVos is generally one for nuance or good decisions).


Even if unprompted, it's not an unfair question.

Either the government has to ensure that kids are safe, or they have to be transparent with people and lay out what the risks are.

Just saying we have to get back to school because we have to get back to school is the same kind of idiocy that led to things being opened up too early.
   6914. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 12, 2020 at 07:10 PM (#5962461)
Fauci told the Financial Times that he hasn’t briefed Trump on the pandemic for at least two months and he last saw Trump in person at the White House on June 2 as it has also become obvious that the administration is blocking television appearances.
Fauci’s supporters acknowledge that the 79-year-old head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases made lots of mistakes early on in the coronavirus crisis. But he was hardly alone. Case in point, Surgeon General Jerome Adams acknowledged Sunday that the administration was “trying to correct” earlier messaging that advised against wearing face masks. “We follow the science and when we learn more, our recommendations change,” he said. Adams went back in history to explain how these types of mistakes can happen: “Well, it’s important for people to understand that once upon a time, we prescribed cigarettes for asthmatics and leeches and cocaine and heroin for people as medical treatments. When we learned better, we do better.”
link
   6915. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 12, 2020 at 07:13 PM (#5962463)
Sorry Barry. Best wishes.
   6916. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 12, 2020 at 07:21 PM (#5962464)
The wiki page says most people say Def Smith these days. I doubt that’s the influence of rap, but what do I know

Must be those kids these days. I remember from my Texas History class in college in the late 80's that the prof referred to him as "Deef" Smith.
   6917. PreservedFish Posted: July 12, 2020 at 07:31 PM (#5962465)
Either the government has to ensure that kids are safe, or they have to be transparent with people and lay out what the risks are.


The former cannot be honestly stated. At best, you can promise that you are taking "every possible precaution." I agree that, ideally, DeVos would have attempted the latter.

Just saying we have to get back to school because we have to get back to school is the same kind of idiocy that led to things being opened up too early.


Well, when I say "we have to get back to school," you can assume that that includes a tacit "assuming that the infection spread is controlled to a certain degree." Naturally I'd pull my own kids out of school and support further school closures if my state were experiencing what Arizona/etc are right now. "We have to reopen schools" should mean "we have to reopen schools, assuming we can reopen anything."

But coming from the Trump Cabinet, I don't think you can assume that, and so yeah, it's probably the same kind of idiocy.
   6918. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 12, 2020 at 07:31 PM (#5962466)
Either the government has to ensure that kids are safe, or they have to be transparent with people and lay out what the risks are.

Just saying we have to get back to school because we have to get back to school is the same kind of idiocy that led to things being opened up too early.


Bingo, but then the transparency of the Trump administration is found only in its motives.
   6919. Jay Z Posted: July 12, 2020 at 08:28 PM (#5962471)
In case Covid19 didn't suck enough, it seems there are more and more reports that people can be infected more than once?

I've seen articles where Docs report patients who had it, tested negative and felt better, then got sick again weeks later and were sicker.


It seems more likely that the original infection was never really cleared.

I have also read articles of people who have slipped back into sick mode several times. So it's certainly possible that the original infection was never fully beaten back. I don't trust testing 100%.
   6920. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 12, 2020 at 08:53 PM (#5962473)
I don't trust testing 100%.
you shouldn't trust it 90%.

there's always going to be an error rate for these tests (in fact, the inaccuracy of early testing kits is a significant contributor to how america wound up so far behind the 8-ball early on), so unless you are asymptomatic, even if the covid test comes back negative, you have to assume the test was wrong and that you do have covid.


that may sound unreasonable, but it's the best way to limit the exponential growth of this virus.
   6921. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 12, 2020 at 09:12 PM (#5962480)
The move to treat Dr. Fauci, who has led the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases for decades, as if he were a warring political rival came as he has grown increasingly vocal in his concerns about the national surge in coronavirus cases, as well as his lack of access to Mr. Trump over the past several weeks.
...
It came just days after the White House called school reopening guidelines released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention overly restrictive, part of a pattern of the administration trying to sideline recommendations that could slow the reopening of the economy, which Mr. Trump views as vital to his flailing re-election effort.
...
A poll conducted for The New York Times by Siena College last month showed that 67 percent of Americans trusted Dr. Fauci when it came to the virus; only 26 percent trusted the president.


link

Time for an offsite press conference and resignation.
   6922. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 12, 2020 at 09:15 PM (#5962481)
As we consider opening schools:

A new study published in the Lancet, for example, found that children under 10 were less susceptible to the virus, but older children were just as likely to get the virus as adults.)
   6923. Tony S Posted: July 12, 2020 at 09:23 PM (#5962483)
Mayor, you're having serious unresolved italics issues again. :)
   6924. Tony S Posted: July 12, 2020 at 09:24 PM (#5962484)
.
   6925. Ron J Posted: July 12, 2020 at 09:37 PM (#5962485)
6923 He had open bracket I close bracket at the start of his second paragraph.
   6926. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 12, 2020 at 09:37 PM (#5962487)
This is the worst year for America in more than a half century; a stunning 87 percent of Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going and only 17 percent feel proud when thinking about the state of the nation, while 71 percent feel angry and 66 percent are fearful. Donald Trump’s presidency is so polarizing and such a catastrophe that a plurality or outright majority of Americans now oppose much of whatever he supports. The mood of the public is the most progressive it’s been in nearly 70 years. During the Trump era, the nation has moved to the left on a whole series of issues, including those that matter most to evangelical Trump supporters.
...
The greatest cost of the Trump years to evangelical Christianity isn’t in the political sphere, but rather in what Christians refer to as bearing witness—showing how their lives have been transformed by their faith.

Much of the evangelical movement, in aligning itself with Donald Trump, has shown itself to be graceless and joyless, seized by fear, hypocritical, censorious, and filled with grievances.
...
"[trump is] everything I’ve been trying to say isn’t what the church is all about. But sadly, maybe it is.”

trigger warning: death cult.
   6927. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 12, 2020 at 09:41 PM (#5962488)
sorry guys, thanks Ron
   6928. puck Posted: July 12, 2020 at 09:48 PM (#5962489)

It seems more likely that the original infection was never really cleared.

I have also read articles of people who have slipped back into sick mode several times. So it's certainly possible that the original infection was never fully beaten back. I don't trust testing 100%.


I guess it was discussed here earlier, I missed that. I don't know if I can find the article, and it was just one doc. But he talked about a 6 week gap when the patient felt fine and a negative test result.

Mostly I read about people who don't go back to feeling 100%.
   6929. Howie Menckel Posted: July 12, 2020 at 10:11 PM (#5962493)
The COVID Tracking Project
@COVID19Tracking

A better milestone. New York City saw at least one COVID-19 death on every day since mid March. That's 120+ days. Yesterday, after months of communal effort by the people of the city, New York City finally reported 0 new deaths.
5:48 PM · Jul 12, 2020
   6930. Jay Z Posted: July 12, 2020 at 10:21 PM (#5962495)
The COVID Tracking Project
@COVID19Tracking

A better milestone. New York City saw at least one COVID-19 death on every day since mid March. That's 120+ days. Yesterday, after months of communal effort by the people of the city, New York City finally reported 0 new deaths.
5:48 PM · Jul 12, 2020


I am hopeful for New York. And Sweden I guess, also on the same long downward trend.

So much we really don't know, hopeful that if an area has it bad that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I can't believe it's all just hand washing and social distance in NYC.
   6931. Howie Menckel Posted: July 12, 2020 at 11:01 PM (#5962498)
I can't fully figure out the contrasting death rates, so far at least - north vs south.

Northeast nursing homes explains a lot, but not all.

indoor NYC area in March vs South outdoors in summer - except SxSW is people are heavily indoors, too, which with AC is an issue.

mask usage and social distancing in our suburbs seems phenomenal - except for the outlaw bars that pop up, get on social media, and get shut down the next day.

and for heavily-congested NYC to have zero is just amazing.

I have taken it as if you lose enough souls in your community, you just look for what can slow it down. the fight is just not there.

yet I'm sure there are more reasons. we're so early in this process of learning.
   6932. base ball chick Posted: July 12, 2020 at 11:16 PM (#5962501)
cases here in yewstin are eggsploding. the hospitals are full and overflowing. the county judge and mayor are freaking and want to shut the city back down before the refrigerator trucks are lined up outside the ERs. and yet still too many people are refusing to wear masks and the bar owners are suing to open back up so as there can be even more disease and death

i'm a lot more scared than i was in march/april

i think we all gonna hafta wear masks for quite a while

   6933. base ball chick Posted: July 12, 2020 at 11:17 PM (#5962502)
barry so sorry to hear about your mama too. i hope she and your daddy get better soon
   6934. EddieA Posted: July 12, 2020 at 11:31 PM (#5962505)
i'm a lot more scared than i was in march/april


This is logical. Way more carriers to be exposed to.
   6935. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 12, 2020 at 11:58 PM (#5962508)
The CDC adjusted it's IFR "best estimate" from he ridiculously low 0.26%, to the more plausible 0.65%. While 0.65% would not have been plausible for NYC, considering that it is possible the IFR has dropped significantly since March/April, it is at least plausible now, if (IMHO) not particularly likely, once excess deaths are taken into account.
   6936. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:02 AM (#5962509)
i'm a lot more scared than i was in march/april

i think we all gonna hafta wear masks for quite a while


I'm scared that we're going to go through cycles of mask and premature "It's gone! Open up!" Cuomo's been rightly cautious, and the State's seen a significant drop in active cases over the past few weeks.
   6937. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:46 AM (#5962512)
published on february 26:
In the summer and fall of 2014 — less than a year before he officially launched his presidential bid — Donald Trump posted about 100 mostly panicked tweets about the Ebola virus. Many of them attacked then-President Obama for his handling of the outbreak, and some of them went as far as to accuse the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) of lying about what was going on.

America is now confronting the possibility — or even likelihood — of a coronavirus outbreak within its borders. The novel virus and Covid-19, the disease it causes, could quickly become President Trump’s problem, and it’s instructive to look back at what had to say about Ebola and Obama’s response to it.

Spoiler alert: None of it is reassuring.
Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) & @CNN are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible. Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape! @CDCgov.....

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 26, 2020
   6938. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:50 AM (#5962513)

Bob Garcia @bgarciaivsports
The year 2020 sucks on so many levels.
   6939. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:07 AM (#5962515)
Texas reports 10,410 patients hospitalized due to coronavirus, a 25% increase from a week ago.

8,196 new cases were reported on July 12. There were 63,130 viral tests reported on July 11. That made the positivity rate — the percentage of positive cases to viral tests conducted over seven days — 16.3%.

3,192 Texans have died as of July 12 — 80 more than the day before and 555 more than a week ago.


link
   6940. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:33 AM (#5962516)
On Friday, DeSantis said Florida’s rise in new cases was due to the fact that the virus has been in Florida longer because of a “flatter curve,” according to the Tampa Bay Times.

“When you have a flatter curve, which Florida has — I mean if you look at the Northeast, they went boom ... Florida, Texas, we’re just much flatter,” DeSantis said. “It means it goes on longer, and so you know we said you wanted a flatter curve but this is drawn out over a longer period of time.”

florida man believes the definition of "exponential growth" is debatable.
   6941. Tin Angel Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:18 AM (#5962519)
“When you have a flatter curve, which Florida has — I mean if you look at the Northeast, they went boom ... Florida, Texas, we’re just much flatter,” DeSantis said. “It means it goes on longer, and so you know we said you wanted a flatter curve but this is drawn out over a longer period of time.”


Whenever I think my opinion of most politicians couldn't get any lower, they actually speak and disprove it.
   6942. BrianBrianson Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:31 AM (#5962521)
You're funny Lisa. Really enjoy the pizzazz with which you can string a sentence together. :-)


She sure is, trying to claim Texas is huge in a thread where it seems half of us are Ontarians.
   6943. Greg K Posted: July 13, 2020 at 05:10 AM (#5962523)
If Texas isn't huge then why are Texas mickeys so big? Answer me that!
   6944. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 05:41 AM (#5962524)
#6943 because the Ontario mickeys were too hard to stock.
   6945. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 13, 2020 at 07:21 AM (#5962528)
Man, 30, Dies After Attending a ‘Covid Party,’ Texas Hospital Says .... “I thought this was a hoax,” the man told his nurse, a hospital official said.

A 30-year-old man who believed the coronavirus was a hoax and attended a “Covid party” died after being infected with the virus, according to a Texas hospital.

The man had attended a gathering with an infected person to test whether the coronavirus was real, said Dr. Jane Appleby, chief medical officer at Methodist Hospital in San Antonio, where the man died.

She did not say when the party took place, how many people attended or how long after the event was the man hospitalized with Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The man was not publicly identified.

The premise of such parties is to test whether the virus really exists or to intentionally expose people to the coronavirus in an attempt to gain immunity.

Dr. Appleby said the man had told his nurse that he attended a Covid party. Just before he died, she said the patient told his nurse: “I think I made a mistake. I thought this was a hoax, but it’s not.”
   6946. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 07:24 AM (#5962529)
We had been discussing how we might not be able to rely on sustained immunity. Good summary of the biggest study on the matter available here -- Guardian article.

Key points:

Smallish study (over 90 patients and healthcare workers)

Blood tests revealed that while 60% of people marshalled a “potent” antibody response at the height of their battle with the virus [around 3 weeks after onset -- RJ], only 17% retained the same potency three months later. Antibody levels fell as much as 23-fold over the period. In some cases, they became undetectable.

That's … beyond discouraging.

   6947. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2020 at 07:31 AM (#5962530)
Are there still lots of people that think it's a hoax? Or is it limited to the bleeding edge of lunacy?
   6948. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2020 at 07:33 AM (#5962531)
We propose that [Noncompliance with social distancing] may be associated with the limitation in one’s mental capacity to simultaneously retain multiple pieces of information in working memory (WM) for rational decision making


Duh
   6949. BrianBrianson Posted: July 13, 2020 at 07:34 AM (#5962532)
If Texas isn't huge then why are Texas mickeys so big? Answer me that!


I have no answer for this.
   6950. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 07:46 AM (#5962533)
#6947 Haven't seen any recent polling on the matter, but it's tough to convince somebody who believes something like covid=hoax with facts. So I'd think it's still in the range of around 1/8 of Americans think it's a hoax.
   6951. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 13, 2020 at 08:21 AM (#5962536)
This thread is so illuminating! I had never heard of Canadian nor Texas mickies before.
   6952. mathesond Posted: July 13, 2020 at 08:35 AM (#5962540)
If Texas isn't huge then why are Texas mickeys so big? Answer me that!


Compensating for something, I guess.
   6953. Tony S Posted: July 13, 2020 at 09:04 AM (#5962541)
I mean if you look at the Northeast, they went boom


Yes, Ron, they did go boom. And they took action, and now they're doing much better.

Luckily for you, it didn't hit your state as hard right away, giving you valuable time to observe, learn, prepare, and take appropriate action. So Florida wouldn't go boom as well.

What did you do with that luxury of extra lead time?

   6954. Greg Pope Posted: July 13, 2020 at 09:18 AM (#5962542)
Blood tests revealed that while 60% of people marshalled a “potent” antibody response at the height of their battle with the virus [around 3 weeks after onset -- RJ], only 17% retained the same potency three months later. Antibody levels fell as much as 23-fold over the period. In some cases, they became undetectable.

That's … beyond discouraging.


I asked this before, but if there was an answer I missed it. What about the T-Cells (or maybe B-Cells)? I thought that it would be expected that antibodies decrease, but there are T-Cells that know about the disease and they either fight it or produce antibodies. And those stay around a lot longer, maybe even permanently.

Is it just that the antibody decrease is faster than expected?
   6955. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 09:35 AM (#5962545)
#6954 I think the answer is that nobody really knows. There is evidence that successfully fighting off the virus actually depletes T-Cells. And severe cases seem to be inversely correlated with the patient's T-Cells count. And that asymptomatic people seem to have high T-Cell counts. Cause or effect or coincidence? Nobody knows.
   6956. mike f Posted: July 13, 2020 at 10:09 AM (#5962550)
I have also read articles of people who have slipped back into sick mode several times. So it's certainly possible that the original infection was never fully beaten back. I don't trust testing 100%.

I still feel the same mild symptoms I did in March (I’m an otherwise healthy 37 year old). And I still haven’t received my antibody test results a month after testing. I’m donating blood tomorrow to get another antibody test. I wanted to donate plasma but can’t without antibody test results. And I live an hour from DisneyWorld. Florida is truly a shitshow.

Are there still lots of people that think it's a hoax? Or is it limited to the bleeding edge of lunacy?

Based on my local Nextdoor and Facebook groups, there’s a strong “this will just disappear after the election” contingent out there. Also a lot of chalking up the increase in Florida to the same person testing positive multiple times (as if a patient gets tested multiple times a day). And skepticism to any reported numbers like ICU availability. And lots of “if the mask works, why 6 feet? If 6 feet works, why the mask”. Etc etc.
   6957. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 13, 2020 at 10:18 AM (#5962554)
And lots of “if the mask works, why 6 feet? If 6 feet works, why the mask”.


"If seatbelts work, why airbags? If airbags work, why seatbelts?"

or, if they are so inclined

"If armour-piercing bullets work, why automatic rifles? If automatic rifles work, why armour-piercing bullets?"
   6958. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 11:17 AM (#5962567)
Apologies for going political but it's weird rather than partisan and this seems like the place for it.

China announces sanctions on Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio (and a couple of others). This may not be very impacting on their lives. I think it means they can't install Tik Tok (though Tik Tok claims it's not under China's control. This may be the test case)
   6959. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 13, 2020 at 11:58 AM (#5962577)
At least 62 U.S. Marines have tested positive for coronavirus at American military bases in Japan, according to a new report from the Japan Times. It’s not yet clear whether the U.S. service members brought covid-19 with them from overseas or if they were infected while in Japan. But either way, authorities in Japan are not happy with the high number of infections.
...
Japan identified roughly 373 new coronavirus cases yesterday and 410 the day before that, a troubling spike for a country that was identifying fewer than 100 per day just a couple of weeks ago. But those numbers pale in comparison to the outbreak in the U.S., which currently has the worst pandemic in the world.The U.S. identified 60,719 cases yesterday, and 66,786 cases on Saturday, a new daily record for both the country and the world. Florida alone reported 15,299 new cases on Sunday, a new state record.
...
Most wealthy countries around the world have banned U.S. citizens from visiting during the pandemic and it’s not clear when Americans might be able to travel freely again.

exporting democracy and the black plague, since 1968.
   6960. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:15 PM (#5962581)
Most wealthy countries around the world have banned U.S. citizens from visiting during the pandemic and it’s not clear when Americans might be able to travel freely again.


America First, indeed.
   6961. tshipman Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:18 PM (#5962582)
China announces sanctions on Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio (and a couple of others). This may not be very impacting on their lives. I think it means they can't install Tik Tok (though Tik Tok claims it's not under China's control. This may be the test case)


No one over the age of 19 can install it anyways.
   6962. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:21 PM (#5962583)
No one over the age of 19 can install it anyways.
it's actually very popular among catholic priests, boy scout leaders and pedophiles.
   6963. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:29 PM (#5962585)
The anti-mask rally took place on Saturday at 33 & Melt, a bar and restaurant in Windermere, Florida that’s owned by Carrie Hudson, an activist who believes the coronavirus pandemic is little more than media-driven hype. Reuters and Canada’s Global News both published videos of the demonstration on YouTube, which shows county officials speaking with Hudson about the county’s mandatory mask order.
...
Hudson, who reportedly offered 100 free meals to people who visited the restaurant without a mask, was backed up by protesters who clearly savored the publicity.

oh, the caucasity
“I will never back down and I love all my guests,” the restaurant said on its Facebook page Sunday. “If the media hadn’t mentioned Covid would have [sic] known is was [sic] even a thing?”

   6964. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:31 PM (#5962586)
Also a lot of chalking up the increase in Florida to the same person testing positive multiple times (as if a patient gets tested multiple times a day).


I'd go for the fun of it only if it's the one where they drill for oil in my brain.
   6965. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:35 PM (#5962587)
#6959 China's actually reacting to a case in Inner Mongolia. The World Health Organization says the outbreak (5 cases in the last two years) is "well managed"
   6966. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:37 PM (#5962588)
Carrie Hudson


need to bookmark this name for the inevitable Carrie Hudson has covid-19 and is in the hospital story that will be coming in a couple of weeks...
   6967. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:41 PM (#5962589)
Are there still lots of people that think it's a hoax? Or is it limited to the bleeding edge of lunacy?
"human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so"
   6968. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:50 PM (#5962591)
The Washington Redskin era is over. No clarity on what will replace it

On Sunday, two people with knowledge of the team’s plans said that the preferred replacement name has been held up by trademark issues, which is why the team couldn’t announce the new name Monday
   6969. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5962592)
I was thinking about how life would change if there is no long term immunity or a truly useful vaccine. My brain kind of broke. I can't imagine just living normally with a couple of million people dying of the disease a year, but I can't imagine just shutting planet Earth down.

If the second and repeat incidents of the disease are worse than the initial course (which is possible) then a couple million a year could be on the low side.

I know our culture and response to the situation would evolve, but I just don't know how.
   6970. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5962593)
If Florida were a country, it would be the fourth highest in the world in reporting new cases. The state would rank 10th in the list of nations with the most cases, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

And, “We’re at an ICU capacity of 103% and then if you just carve out the Covid ICU, it’s at 180%. That’s a 26% increase from last Monday” -- CEO of Memorial Hospital West in Pembroke Pines, Florida. (if there's a free space in the hospital, they're setting something up)

   6971. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 12:57 PM (#5962594)
#6969 Some form of New Zealand solution. Get the virus under control locally (hah) and a no excuses 2 week quarantine for visits from outside the bubble.

And given what's happening in the US, Americans can largely forget about travelling elsewhere.

Not the end of the world. In a very real sense it reflects the way the world worked before convenient mass travel.
   6972. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5962595)
Luckily for you, it didn't hit your state as hard right away, giving you valuable time to observe, learn, prepare, and take appropriate action. So Florida wouldn't go boom as well.

What did you do with that luxury of extra lead time?


Statements like this make me think that a second wave is going to hit hard. If you think this same quote does not apply to the northeast then you are kidding yourself. The death rate might have been a matter of luck but the northeast didn't learn from China, Italy, and Spain so they did nothing with that extra time.

It's heartening to see most of the northeast get this under control, it shows it can but done, but if you think the first wave was just bad luck and not a matter of behavior then the you will not learn from this when the second wave hits you in the fall/winter. You don't learn from stuff by chalking it up to luck.

Quite pointing fingers at the next guy for not learning from the first guy, especially when you a not the first guy but more like the third guy.
   6973. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:02 PM (#5962596)
John Gonzalez: A quote from my wife, who had no advanced warning we were watching this movie or that it even existed: Is this The Fast and the Furious … but with Kelsey Grammer?
(Obviously it’s Kelsey Grammer growling, “You want to bet on a dude ####### an alligator?”)
The man has terrible politics, but he is a thespian.

   6974. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:04 PM (#5962597)
I was thinking about how life would change if there is no long term immunity or a truly useful vaccine. My brain kind of broke. I can't imagine just living normally with a couple of million people dying of the disease a year, but I can't imagine just shutting planet Earth down.


What are the chances of this situation three or five years from now? Even if there is no long term immunity and vaccines are merely somewhat effective (meaning it cuts down on the chances and severity, but the vaccine is nothing close to a guarantee that you won't contract the disease), then aren't the chances pretty good that more effective treatments will emerge? It will still be life altering, but eventually people will start to move back toward life pre-covid, even if we never arrive at that point again.
   6975. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:05 PM (#5962598)
I was thinking about how life would change if there is no long term immunity or a truly useful vaccine. My brain kind of broke. I can't imagine just living normally with a couple of million people dying of the disease a year,


Humanity got used to people dying of polio and TB before there were treatments. We're pretty good at turning a blind eye to mass death.
   6976. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:07 PM (#5962599)
#6969 Some form of New Zealand solution. Get the virus under control locally (hah) and a no excuses 2 week quarantine for visits from outside the bubble.


I don't see that working. Either part, but especially getting the virus under control locally. New Zealand had every advantage possible and managed it, but the US has approximately none of those advantages and is way too large to be a local anything. So unless you are going to create state bubbles or something I don't see how that would work in reality.

And if it does, no more tourism outside your locality ever again. That is a huge change with massive unpredictable consequences to culture and the economy.
   6977. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:15 PM (#5962600)
And it turns out the US's coronavirus response is coming up against the limitations of the fax machine.
   6978. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:15 PM (#5962601)
Hong Kong Disneyland announced on Monday that it would close its gates to visitors again due to a recent spike in novel coronavirus infections, according to a statement obtained by CNN. Hong Kong identified 41 new cases on Monday, and 38 cases on Sunday—a concerning outbreak by the standards of most wealthy countries. By contrast, Walt Disney World in Florida reopened over the weekend while the state broke a new record for most cases in a single day: 15,299 new covid-19 infections.
...
“As required by the government and health authorities in line with prevention efforts taking place across Hong Kong, Hong Kong Disneyland park will temporarily close from July 15,” the statement reads

cut that meat! cut that meat!
   6979. Greg Pope Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:16 PM (#5962602)
I was thinking about how life would change if there is no long term immunity or a truly useful vaccine.

And given what's happening in the US, Americans can largely forget about travelling elsewhere.

Not the end of the world. In a very real sense it reflects the way the world worked before convenient mass travel.


Mrs. Pope and I had always planned to travel after retirement (which is still a dozen years away). However, good circumstances at work over the last 10 years meant that we could start our travel earlier. I'm very thankful for that since it never really occurred to me that we would be unable to travel later due to these kind of circumstances.

As for this pandemic, I don't see it lasting. Even if there's no long term immunity, there will be a vaccine of some sort. It's too similar to other viruses to think that it won't happen. Now, if (as we discussed several pages ago) we need to get shots every 3 months, then it might take a little longer to get it eradicated. But I would be concerned about other pandemics. What if something similar evolves, but it mutates like the flu? We certainly could be shut down with respect to world travel.
   6980. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5962603)
And it turns out the US's coronavirus response is coming up against the limitations of the fax machine.


What century is this again?
   6981. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5962604)
#6976 Hence the (hah). But there are places in Canada that have essentially eliminated community transmission and aim to keep things that way. None of the more populous provinces though. But Manitoba for instance (no new cases for 12 days) could carry on as close to normal as possible if they require people from outside the province to self-isolate.

And they've been diligent. I know of a few cases where people returning from outside the province have been found out for not following the procedures. Winnipeg's not huge, but a city of 700K+ with no virus.

It's possible, though I can't imagine any place in the US being as successful as Winnipeg (which went into lockdown with something like 6 reported cases -- and stayed in lockdown for months with very low totals)

   6982. Tony S Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5962605)
Statements like this make me think that a second wave is going to hit hard. If you think this same quote does not apply to the northeast then you are kidding yourself. The death rate might have been a matter of luck but the northeast didn't learn from China, Italy, and Spain so they did nothing with that extra time.

It's heartening to see most of the northeast get this under control, it shows it can but done, but if you think the first wave was just bad luck and not a matter of behavior then the you will not learn from this when the second wave hits you in the fall/winter. You don't learn from stuff by chalking it up to luck.

Quite pointing fingers at the next guy for not learning from the first guy, especially when you a not the first guy but more like the third guy.


I'm not the least bit naive about a second wave hitting the northeast. I do hope we have better, more informed leadership the second time around. But the farther down you are in the sequence, the less excuse you have for things exploding. With every wave we have more information about what works and what doesn't. I will say this: Mask-wearing is common here, and required by most establishments. Even in rural areas. There are anti-mask idiots in Maryland, but they're the minority.
   6983. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:23 PM (#5962606)
#6980 Be fair. The prototype relied on the Pony Express.
   6984. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:25 PM (#5962607)
#6982 We've got plenty of people who don't want to wear masks. But you're not getting into any business in the city without one.
   6985. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:25 PM (#5962608)
Nice graphics and county-level data from the Harvard Pandemics Explained website.
   6986. bunyon Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5962609)
The Spanish Flu went away. This will too. A lot of people may die between now and then but life will get back to "normal".

(Normal may mean that we wash our hands more and live, eat and work less densely than before. Normal is always changing. But humanity will not stay "locked down" for the rest of eternity.)
   6987. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5962610)
It is likely a vaccine will work, if only for a limited time span. But it is not a certainty.
   6988. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:29 PM (#5962611)
One thing I hadn't thought of. Apparently even if there was a vaccine today there aren't nearly enough vials. And there's the whole issue of logistics chains that have to be solved.

To be fair, this is the kind of challenge that the US is normally exceptional at.
   6989. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:29 PM (#5962612)
6982 - Yes. The point is that Cuomo is, if anything, taking heat for reopening too slowly; evidence of learning on his part. Meanwhile, DeSantis is excited about the GOP conventioneers coming to a state that's going "boom," and Abbott is contemplating getting serious.
   6990. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:31 PM (#5962613)
#6987 There's a non-zero probability that since massive corners are being cut the first vaccine will be a disaster.

And a minimum of 1/5 will refuse the vaccine.
   6991. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:35 PM (#5962614)
#6989/6990, yeah, but those are short term solvable problems. If the vaccine just doesn't work, then that is a real problem.
   6992. Greg Pope Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:36 PM (#5962615)
#6987 There's a non-zero probability that since massive corners are being cut the first vaccine will be a disaster.

And a minimum of 1/5 will refuse the vaccine.


Yeah, I'm the furthest thing from an anti-vaxxer, but I'm very concerned about this. I fully expect an announcement in mid-October from the administration that a vaccine is ready, and I will be very nervous about it.

I mean, the reason that i believe in vaccines is because I trust the process that creates them. You know, science. But I don't have a lot of faith that this vaccine will be as science-driven as it should be.

On the other hand, I don't want to catch COVID-19.
   6993. Srul Itza Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:39 PM (#5962616)
I can't imagine just living normally with a couple of million people dying of the disease a year


In 2017, approximately 58 million people died worldwide, of all causes.

As sorry and callous as it is to say, we could almost certainly absorb another 2 million deaths. Now, the add-on effect of people being permanently disabled, and the loss of life due to hospital beds being in short supply is another issue -- one the third world has always had to deal with. We can to some degree expand our hospital capacity, provided the whole world or the whole country does not turn into March-April New York. The end result, of course, is always a poorer, more closed off world, unless we start to get control.

Polio is not a good analogue -- pre-vaccine epidemics were nowhere near this. TB is closer, since (if you can believe the CDC . . . ):

In 2018, 1.7 billion people were infected by TB bacteria — roughly 23% of the world’s population. TB is the leading infectious disease killer in the world, claiming 1.5 million lives each year.

   6994. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:52 PM (#5962617)
Mouse -- Not disagreeing with your concern, rather the idea that Cuomo and DeSantis aren't any different. (And let me say again that my County Judge in Harris Co, Lina Hidalgo, was the only county exec to call up to Hing County WA and ask questions to prepare.)

   6995. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:53 PM (#5962618)
I think biscuit pants' point is well worth considering. However, the answer is yes, there's a huge goddam difference between the lessons that NYC had to draw on, and the lessons that Florida had to draw on.

As I showed previously, by the time NYC had to act on the "lessons" of Italy and Spain, those countries had just barely been touched by COVID. On February 29, a day by which probably about a zillion New Yorkers had the bug, Italy had 1,000 known cases and fewer than 50 deaths. Spain had fewer than 100 known cases and wasn't really even on the radar yet.

NY's supposed superspreader caught the disease from parts unknown - he didn't have any known interactions with anyone from China or Italy - and he got sick in late February, at a point when even South Korea had something like 500 known infections. I'm not in a position to evaluate how much we should have learned from the singular example of China.

Doesn't mean that NY (and the West generally) couldn't have done better - obviously they could have and should have. But Florida=NYC is a gross false equivalency.
   6996. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2020 at 01:54 PM (#5962619)
And this quote from biscuit pants - but if you think the first wave was just bad luck and not a matter of behavior then the you will not learn from this when the second wave hits you in the fall/winter - doesn't accurately represent what anyone here is saying. When people talk about "bad luck" in NYC/Lombardy/Madrid they're talking about the bad luck that these places had to have been given a lethal dose of the virus at a point when (a) testing was basically nonexistent and (b) we were still being told that masks were useless and (c) our understanding of asymptomatic spread was still conjecture and rumor and (d) other areas with the same exact immigration/testing/etc policies had the good luck not to have received a bad dose of the virus.
   6997. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:00 PM (#5962620)
Srul -- We're already over half-a-million deaths in less than half a year, worldwide (I'll let AuntBea and others decide how much that is under-counted) but a lot of "we" - at least firstworld "we") are not living normally. Yes, we can statistically absorb the deaths, and the earth may even thank us for dying, but could we return to total disregard and keep the death toll at 2MM/year?
   6998. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:02 PM (#5962622)
#6996 Yeah. I mentioned Winnipeg. They're doing great now but if they'd had the terrible luck to be in the first wave they'd still be dealing with the consequences.
   6999. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:03 PM (#5962623)
There's a non-zero probability that since massive corners are being cut the first vaccine will be a disaster.


Curious as to why you think corners are being cut? Or is this more of a prediction?
   7000. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:04 PM (#5962624)
#6997 I think a good chunk of the world will adapt if Mouse's worst fears come to pass.

Different people will tolerate different levels of risk.

Won't be the same as before, but it'll be an approximation.
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