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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 8842 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   7001. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:05 PM (#5962625)
Flip
   7002. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:08 PM (#5962626)
#6999 Just the sheer rush. We've never seen a vaccine brought to production in anything close to this time frame.

And the last time we tried it was Ford and the Swine Flu and the only reason that wasn't an epic disaster is that the Flu didn't return as predicted.
   7003. Greg Pope Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:12 PM (#5962627)
Curious as to why you think corners are being cut? Or is this more of a prediction?

Is it even possible that corners are not being cut? When they first started talking about a vaccine, they said 12-18 months. What I didn't realize until later is that 1.5 years would be by far the fastest vaccine ever developed. Most vaccines are on the level of 5 years. How can we possibly get one in 1.5 years without cutting corners?

Now, maybe some of those corners are OK to be cut. Maybe we're too cautious normally. Maybe they normally take 5 years because 3 companies are each working on 28 vaccines so their resources are split. And now we've got 40 companies working on 1 vaccine each. I guess it's conceivable that corners are not being cut, but it strikes me as extremely unlikely.

Even more so if something is announced in October, because I will feel that it's politically motivated. It would mean that we beat 18 months by a full year. But that one is more of a prediction.
   7004. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:17 PM (#5962629)
Mouse -- Not disagreeing with your concern, rather the idea that Cuomo and DeSantis aren't any different. (And let me say again that my County Judge in Harris Co, Lina Hidalgo, was the only county exec to call up to Hing County WA and ask questions to prepare.)


I have no idea where I said anything about either Cuomo or DeSantis, so I am not sure what you are saying.
   7005. RJ in TO Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:18 PM (#5962630)
Curious as to why you think corners are being cut? Or is this more of a prediction?
These things usually have multi-year development processes, rather than the targeted < 1 year goal for this one. It means there's all sorts of risks with side effects being missed, or reduced effectiveness, or problems with the manufacturing and so on.

To be clear, I don't think anyone is saying these companies aren't doing their best, but we all know when people rush they're more likely to make mistakes or miss things.
   7006. bunyon Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:18 PM (#5962631)
It comes down to probabilities. Corners will be cut. But when the regs say do "X" that doesn't mean not doing X results in disaster. It's not like X is ever "Don't include a known poison with the dose". Doing X makes things a few percent safer. You can cut quite a few corners. You just don't know which. If you cut them all, disaster. If you cut most but it turns out none were critical in the specific case, you're fine.

It's a crap shoot. But, yeah, despite being in a high risk group, I'm not signing up for an October vaccine.
   7007. SoSH U at work Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:19 PM (#5962632)
I have no idea where I said anything about either Cuomo or DeSantis, so I am not sure what you are saying.


I think that should have been directed at Biscuit.

   7008. Howie Menckel Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:21 PM (#5962633)
"Gov. Phil Murphy announced on Monday that the state would lift the 50 percent capacity limit that has been enforced on NJ Transit and private carrier buses, trains, light rail and Access Link.

That order has been in effect since March to help mitigate the spread of the virus but will be lifted on Wednesday, July 15 at 8 p.m."
   7009. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:23 PM (#5962634)
But Florida=NYC is a gross false equivalency.


I am not trying to equivocate in the least. If anything I am advocating we quite equivocating. The lesson that needs to be learned is we are not different, the northeast is not filled with one type of person and the rest of the country another. Mistakes were made and excuses followed, equivocating does nothing to the learning process.

We were screening people at airports the first week of February, so we knew this was dangerous more than a month before acting on it. So to me the uncertainty of the virus should mean more precautions should have been taken. When you don't know the path in front of you more caution is necessary, so even that "bad luck" was poor decision making. It was an arrogance based off of ignorance but an arrogance nonetheless. I don't know why we watched another country go into martial law and thought to ourselves "That wont happen here". That part is what makes the northeast the same as the south/southwest, the arrogance of "that wont happen here". No they are not equal in magnitude but they are equal in the decision making process.

I have lived in 4 very different parts of the country and one thing I have learned is that while each place was different I was more amazed on how alike the people were.

Finally, I think DeSantis is doing the worse job of all Governors so my point has never been NY=Fl.
   7010. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:30 PM (#5962635)
It was an arrogance based off of ignorance but an arrogance nonetheless. I don't know why we watched another country go into martial law and thought to ourselves "That wont happen here".


Fair. This arrogance/ignorance was obviously bolstered by our non-experiences with SARS and various bird flus. These things seem to rise and disappear in the East with some regularity. But I'm sure there was no good reason to think that that was a pattern we could bank on.
   7011. Howie Menckel Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:31 PM (#5962636)
since 7009's observation sounded vaguely familiar....

from the NY Times

"For many days after the first positive test, as the coronavirus silently spread throughout the New York region, Mr. Cuomo, Mr. de Blasio and their top aides projected an unswerving confidence that the outbreak would be readily contained.

There would be cases, they repeatedly said, but New York’s hospitals were some of the best in the world. Plans were in place. Responses had been rehearsed during “tabletop” exercises. After all, the city had been here before — Ebola, Zika, the H1N1 virus, even Sept. 11.

“Excuse our arrogance as New Yorkers — I speak for the mayor also on this one — we think we have the best health care system on the planet right here in New York,” Mr. Cuomo said on March 2. “So, when you’re saying, what happened in other countries versus what happened here, we don’t even think it’s going to be as bad as it was in other countries.”

“We can really keep this thing contained,” Mr. de Blasio said at a news conference about virus preparations in late February.

That tone continued even after the first positive case was announced on March 1.

“Everybody is doing exactly what we need to do,” said Mr. Cuomo, seated with Mr. de Blasio, at a news conference on March 2. “We have been ahead of this from Day 1.”

.............

By March 5, Mr. de Blasio seemed to acknowledge the virus had spread beyond control. “You have to assume it could be anywhere in the city,” he said.

Still, not wanting to cause undue alarm, he told New Yorkers to go on with their normal lives, which left many confused about the danger they faced.

The city’s health commissioner, Dr. Oxiris Barbot, had sought to reassure commuters, in early February, that “this is not something that you’re going to contract in the subway or on the bus.” The mayor reiterated the point several times in early March.

...............

"The governor and the mayor emphasized [in April] that they had no misgivings about their initial handling of their response. They said that their efforts spurred the Trump administration to act more decisively to curb the outbreak. New York was the first state to obtain federal approval for its own coronavirus testing.

“Every action I took was criticized at the time as premature,” Mr. Cuomo said in an interview. “The facts have proven my decisions correct.”
   7012. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:32 PM (#5962637)
Ron J -- an approximation; agree. We'll make our accommodations, by age and necessity.
   7013. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:34 PM (#5962638)
Just the sheer rush. We've never seen a vaccine brought to production in anything close to this time frame.

These things usually have multi-year development processes, rather than the targeted < 1 year goal for this one. It means there's all sorts of risks with side effects being missed, or reduced effectiveness, or problems with the manufacturing and so on.

Is it even possible that corners are not being cut? When they first started talking about a vaccine, they said 12-18 months. What I didn't realize until later is that 1.5 years would be by far the fastest vaccine ever developed. Most vaccines are on the level of 5 years. How can we possibly get one in 1.5 years without cutting corners?


I do think that while the normal time table is 1.5 years having one come out in 11 months -13 months does not necessarily mean corners are being cut. one of the issues with the time frames of trials is getting people into your trial, that can take months. That is pretty much gone here. The FDA has stated they want the normal 6 months worth of stage 2/3 participant data that comes with a vaccine trial. The first stage 2/3 trial in America started last week I believe. Another is getting materials, one of the current trials I am working on cannot get the materials it needs because of a shortage due to manufacturing being diverted to more pressing needs due to the pandemic. Material shortage actually is a big one that will not be happening here, since it will be pretty much everyone's top priority.

If the FDA announces that they are relaxing the standards I will get worried but so far they have stated they are sticking to them.
   7014. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:34 PM (#5962639)
“Excuse our arrogance as New Yorkers — I speak for the mayor also on this one — we think we have the best health care system on the planet right here in New York,” Mr. Cuomo said on March 2. “So, when you’re saying, what happened in other countries versus what happened here, we don’t even think it’s going to be as bad as it was in other countries.”


And this, obviously, was a fatal misunderstanding. Doctors treat the ill. They don't stop the spread.
   7015. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:36 PM (#5962640)
Mouse -- not to belabor, but you wrote

#6989/6990, yeah, but those are short term solvable problems. If the vaccine just doesn't work, then that is a real problem.


At leaast on my screen, I'm 6989 and, yes, I was responding to Biscuit Pants, not disagreeing with anything you said.
   7016. puck Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:39 PM (#5962641)
And it turns out the US's coronavirus response is coming up against the limitations of the fax machine.



What century is this again?


HIPAA has kept the fax machine alive. I don't know about large organizations but with places like doctor's offices and small clinics, they end up sending faxes because of the difficulties of managing the secure transfer of data over the internet.
   7017. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:39 PM (#5962642)
Not disagreeing with your concern, rather the idea that Cuomo and DeSantis aren't any different.

Not equivocating them in any way other than to state they both made mistakes. If they were up for the same office I would be comparing the two, and at this point there is a single person in this country that I think has been a bigger tool than DeSantis and he's in the white house.

   7018. Srul Itza Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:40 PM (#5962643)
could we return to total disregard and keep the death toll at 2MM/year


Not total disregard, but not lockdown, either.

It will be a poorer world, for sure.
   7019. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:44 PM (#5962645)
“So, when you’re saying, what happened in other countries versus what happened here, we don’t even think it’s going to be as bad as it was in other countries.”

You don't even have to quote Cuomo on this. We had a few people in the prior thread saying the same kinds of things. First about other countries, and then about NY.
   7020. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:45 PM (#5962646)
Master Pants, I think you're misusing the word "equivocate."
   7021. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:47 PM (#5962647)

We were screening people at airports the first week of February, so we knew this was dangerous more than a month before acting on it.


Were we? When my friend had to evacuate Italy, there were basic questions in Rome (have you been in an affected area) and a temperature check, but he said there was nothing in the US when he returned, and that was late February/early March.
   7022. Hank Gillette Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:47 PM (#5962648)
Blood tests revealed that while 60% of people marshalled a “potent” antibody response at the height of their battle with the virus [around 3 weeks after onset -- RJ], only 17% retained the same potency three months later. Antibody levels fell as much as 23-fold over the period. In some cases, they became undetectable.


Is that atypical? My layman’s understanding is that as long as the body’s immune system “remembers” the disease, if a new infection occurs, the immune system will ramp up and produce new antibodies. Is this totally wrong?
   7023. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:47 PM (#5962649)
Master Pants, I think you're misusing the word "equivocate."
well ####, I've been misusing that my entire life and you are the first person to tell me. Thanks!
   7024. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5962650)
I admit to being caught off-guard by the severity of the coronavirus spread in the West. It definitely got real for me, all of a sudden, the day that the NBA suspended its season. By that point, no action could have wholly prevented the debacle in NYC, although action certainly could have attenuated it.

But I'm also just a guy, so there was no imperative for me to take it seriously before that.
   7025. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5962651)
Were we? When my friend had to evacuate Italy
We were, but at the time it was just people coming from China
   7026. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:48 PM (#5962652)
#6996 Yeah. I mentioned Winnipeg. They're doing great now but if they'd had the terrible luck to be in the first wave they'd still be dealing with the consequences.
san francisco had two of the earliest confirmed cases in north america, and they managed to escape the worst case scenario (until [6903] anyway; ####### public school system).

   7027. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:50 PM (#5962654)
could we return to total disregard and keep the death toll at 2MM/year
not without a decent vaccine, treatment that is much more effective, or very early detection with quarantine (that is adhered too). Preferably all three. If so, then maybe people could go about their lives with minimal disruption.

Probably over 1.5 million dead now worldwide (with China basically untapped and India, so far as we now barely tapped). If not 1.5 million, then close to it.
   7028. Srul Itza Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:51 PM (#5962655)
In terms of the vaccine, I think we are going to see more than one coming out, given the number of companies and countries working on it.

I think there is a good chance that some corners will be cut, and that one or more of them will be a disaster.

I think that we are not likely to see a working vaccine until some time next year, but with the effort being put in, it is possible to get one earlier than has been done before. We have tools that we did not use to have in terms of manipulating RNA and DNA.

Here is a thought experiment: China develops a working vaccine faster than others because they don't worry about the test subjects who are forced to take it. Would you use a working vaccine that was developed by means that would otherwise be considered a crime against humanity?
   7029. Eudoxus Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:51 PM (#5962656)
It's not like there's some kind of mystery about how we could deal with a highly infectious and highly lethal disease widespread in the population. We do an actual global super-serious lockdown: everyone stays in their homes 100% of the time for 3 months or so. (And really stay -- not "only go out for jogging", not "don't go out but we won't enforce it", but "go out and nasty people with guns will great you".) We simply abandon all genuinely non-essential parts of the economy (not the made-up U.S. versions of "essential", but really just "get some subsistence food produced" essential), have a small group of people outside lockdown who distribute food to everyone. The virus burns through individual households, and then it's done. There's still a worry about virus reservoirs, so post-lockdown there's a tiered aggressive response plan in place: as soon as there's sign of a new case, the local town/city gets the full super-lockdown, the region gets travel-restricted, the country gets international travel stopped, until things are back under control.

Of course there's a question of whether it's worth paying that cost. (I don't even think it's obvious what the answer to the question is if the alternative is an additional two million deaths a year.) But it's not inevitable that we'd have to live with the situation forever.
   7030. Howie Menckel Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:53 PM (#5962658)
Master Pants, I think you're misusing the word "equivocate."

well ####, I've been misusing that my entire life and you are the first person to tell me.


for all intensive purposes, everybody misuses it
   7031. Hank Gillette Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:57 PM (#5962659)
And it turns out the US's coronavirus response is coming up against the limitations of the fax machine.


I never understood the continued existence of fax machines once email became nearly ubiquitous.
   7032. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 13, 2020 at 02:58 PM (#5962661)
Is it even possible that corners are not being cut? When they first started talking about a vaccine, they said 12-18 months. What I didn't realize until later is that 1.5 years would be by far the fastest vaccine ever developed. Most vaccines are on the level of 5 years. How can we possibly get one in 1.5 years without cutting corners?

the biggest difference is that trial vaccines are being mass-produced while still they're being tested, just in case they work. that's the most obvious "corner" that's being "cut" right now, and there are no meaningful public health drawbacks to it.


i'm sure other corners getting cut in other places, too, and there is an immense amount of political pressure being put on these companies right now.

i also agree that we'll have no idea whether any long-term side effects will result from whichever vaccines eventually get released to the public. personally, i won't be among the first in line, but the risk of side-effects is probably overblown, relative to the risk that a vaccine won't be able protect you for a meaningful length of time.

   7033. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:00 PM (#5962662)
Equivocate does kind of almost mean what Biscuit Pants thought it meant - you are describing an equivalence, it's just that the emphasis is on the mealy-mouthed way you're doing it. Instead of making a judgment ("this is equal to that"), you are implying that "this is equal to that" by refusing to make a judgment. Great word!
   7034. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:00 PM (#5962663)
Apologies if this has been posted already, but the CDC quietly changed its “best estimate” IFR a few days ago — from 0.26% to 0.65%.

Their range went from 0.1-0.5% previously to 0.5-0.8% now.

Link.

Only place that I have seen reporting the change is National Review
   7035. Hank Gillette Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:01 PM (#5962664)
To be clear, I don't think anyone is saying these companies aren't doing their best, but we all know when people rush they're more likely to make mistakes or miss things.


I think the “corner cutting” may be that it takes time to verify both the effectiveness and safety of a vaccine. There is really no way to shorten those times without increasing the risks.
   7036. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5962666)
Here is a thought experiment: China develops a working vaccine faster than others because they don't worry about the test subjects who are forced to take it. Would you use a working vaccine that was developed by means that would otherwise be considered a crime against humanity?

the person who created synthetic fertilizer pulled a billion people out of starvation...and also made bombs, landmines and other military explosives a new feature for wars in the 20th century and beyond.
   7037. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:03 PM (#5962667)
I don't know how the FDA determines how long a Phase III trial should go. I'll ask my wife, she does this stuff for a living.
   7038. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:04 PM (#5962668)
I think that we are not likely to see a working vaccine until some time next year, but with the effort being put in, it is possible to get one earlier than has been done before.


If I were to bet I would put 60/40 odds against on December being when it hits and 50/50 odds in January with February being the most likely month of a vaccine being widely available. If corners are to be cut, then we are looking at somewhere in October.

That is based on nothing but a combination of hope and strong leaning towards best case scenario happening.
   7039. Eudoxus Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:06 PM (#5962669)
A thing that's puzzling me about the numbers recently. A lot of places are showing a kind of "plateauing" pattern. Look at the daily death numbers for Brazil, for example. There's a classic exponential curve from late March to the beginning of June. And then things just stay at the same level from then on -- running about 1000 deaths a day, with a little bouncing around. Or Iraq: sharp exponential curve up to about June 25, and then pretty flat since then.

Contrast that with Italy, which peaks and comes right back down (not as fast as one might have hoped, but there's a clear negative slope). Or New York, which shows the same shape.

I guess there are two separate questions here: (i) why is the increase stopping in "plateau" locations, and (ii) why aren't the numbers going back down. I can think of various possible explanations for this. Maybe lockdowns were better in Italy and NY -- elsewhere we're doing just enough to keep R_t at 1, but not enough to drop things back down? Maybe there are still up-and-down bell curves, but in plateau locations we're getting the effect of a large area in which the peak of the bell curve is moving around, and the summation of the various bell curves is flat? I'll do some diving into the data to see if I can work anything out, but I wanted to see if anyone else had ideas.
   7040. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:06 PM (#5962670)
That is based on nothing but a combination of hope and strong leaning towards best case scenario happening.
my tots and pears are with you.
‘No Way To Prevent This,’ Says Only Nation Where This Regularly Happens
   7041. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:07 PM (#5962671)
I don't know how the FDA determines how long a Phase III trial should go.
It's different for different types of drugs. They have stated the 6 months as a minimum they like to see for vaccines but I don't work in that area so I do not know what is typical and when they make exceptions.
   7042. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:15 PM (#5962674)
If corners are to be cut, then we are looking at somewhere in October.


Halving the Phase 2/3 trial time? That's pretty serious cutting, no?
   7043. Greg K Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:19 PM (#5962677)
To be safe, I only ever use "equivocate" or any words derived therefrom in the following sentence:

"No offense, son, but that's some weak-ass thinking. You equivocating like a ############."
   7044. bunyon Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5962678)
Halving the Phase 2/3 trial time? That's pretty serious cutting, no?

It's not cutting a corner, it's walking straight through the wall.
   7045. Greg Pope Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:25 PM (#5962681)
Here is a thought experiment: China develops a working vaccine faster than others because they don't worry about the test subjects who are forced to take it. Would you use a working vaccine that was developed by means that would otherwise be considered a crime against humanity?

Russia has already developed one.
   7046. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:26 PM (#5962682)
Halving the Phase 2/3 trial time? That's pretty serious cutting, no?

Yes. I have worked on trials that they have said the data is looking better than expected so you can end your trial early but those were for Cancer trials that showed really good returns and Cancer is measured in a lot shorter time-frames than something we would be giving a healthy person. So I have no idea what a trial would need to look like to shorten a vaccine trial. I chose October as a month that I would be very surprised to see it public. At least from an American pharmaceutical. If I remember right England (Cambridge?) spoke of starting trial earlier than we did and I heard of a company in both Russia and Germany that said they were working on it earlier than I heard of one here. Russia has a very different way of doing some of their viral studies, they use Macrophages a lot more than we do, so I don't expect the US to use theirs even if they are first.

Edit: apparently not Cambridge but Imperial College London
   7047. Greg Pope Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:26 PM (#5962683)
I do think that while the normal time table is 1.5 years having one come out in 11 months -13 months does not necessarily mean corners are being cut.

But normal time table isn't 1.5 years. It's 5 years, from everything I've read. 1-1.5 years was already assuming taking down as many barriers as possible.
   7048. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:27 PM (#5962685)
Maybe lockdowns were better in Italy and NY -- elsewhere we're doing just enough to keep R_t at 1, but not enough to drop things back down? Maybe there are still up-and-down bell curves, but in plateau locations we're getting the effect of a large area in which the peak of the bell curve is moving around, and the summation of the various bell curves is flat?


I think some combination of those two is quite likely, and I suspect that increased travel helps 'top up' community spread. As the initial wave in the West its down, people start travelling again, and aren't necessarily minded to change their plans that much. Didn't Disneyworld just re-open? People are going to come from out of state to Florida even if Florida is in effective lockdown. We saw similar in New Zealand - despite eliminating community spread, new cases popped up from travellers arriving and not entirely respecting quarantine.
   7049. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:28 PM (#5962686)
Russia has already developed one.
Had not seen that before posting.
   7050. Greg Pope Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:29 PM (#5962687)
the biggest difference is that trial vaccines are being mass-produced while still they're being tested, just in case they work. that's the most obvious "corner" that's being "cut" right now, and there are no meaningful public health drawbacks to it.

So that's sort of what I said. If it's just a matter of "it takes 5 years to develop a vaccine due to resources", then doing it in 18 months might not be cutting corners in this case. Maybe the companies have dropped everything else, built new labs, gathered enough test subjects, etc. If it's "We'll do Phase 3 in half the time" or "FDA approves even though steps 5, 8, and 10 were skipped", then that's different.
   7051. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:31 PM (#5962688)
I read somewhere (maybe here) that the previous record for a vaccine was something like 4 years.
   7052. Greg Pope Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:32 PM (#5962689)
So I have no idea what a trial would need to look like to shorten a vaccine trial. I chose October as a month that I would be very surprised to see it public.

And I chose October because the current administration has a vested interest in getting a vaccine out in October. As someone else here pointed out, a vaccine that is available in mid-October gives a morale boost before November 3, without much chance of side effects being noticed before that date.
   7053. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:37 PM (#5962691)
On the Russian vaccine in 7045

Clinical trials on two formulations of the vaccine candidate were launched last month at Sechenov University, with 18 people vaccinated on June 18, followed by a second group of 20 people vaccinated on June 23, TASS reported.


After you, please.
   7054. Howie Menckel Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:39 PM (#5962692)
I hope you Southern Californians got your summer haircut already - Gov Newsom just ordered 30 counties to cease indoor operations for fitness centers, places of worship, personal care services, gyms, hair salons and barbershops plus malls.

New Jersey, in spite of being the birthplace of the iconic "GYM TAN LAUNDRY" meme, has yet to reopen the former. not sure of the other two.
   7055. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:42 PM (#5962693)
Maybe the companies have dropped everything else, built new labs, gathered enough test subjects, etc. If it's "We'll do Phase 3 in half the time" or "FDA approves even though steps 5, 8, and 10 were skipped", then that's different.
right now it is "we will let you do some of the steps concurrently as long as you understand that you could have wasted time and money if we cancel you on step 5 even though you are on step 8 right now"

If they skip steps I will suspect one of two things, politics, and if the second wave is, lets say 5x worse, then they could think the risk is worth it. I really hope we don't have to make choices like that.
   7056. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5962695)
a vaccine that is available in mid-October gives a morale boost before November 3, without much chance of side effects being noticed before that date.
Sadly, I think we will see at least an attempt to do this.
   7057. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 13, 2020 at 03:51 PM (#5962697)
And I chose October because the current administration has a vested interest in getting a vaccine out in October. As someone else here pointed out, a vaccine that is available in mid-October gives a morale boost before November 3, without much chance of side effects being noticed before that date.

and i hope someone in joe biden's camp makes it clear that there will be hellfire and brimstone waiting for any company that makes such an announcement within 8 weeks of election day.

the biggest mistake hillary clinton made in 2016 was not viciously attacking james comey for being the attention seeking shitheel that everyone knew he was.
   7058. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:01 PM (#5962701)
A little-noticed statement last week by the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un indicates that no more arms talks will be held anytime soon and even that the deal Kim offered at last year’s summit with President Donald Trump in Hanoi, Vietnam—to shut down one nuclear reactor in exchange for the lifting of all U.S. sanctions since 2016—is now off the table.

Kim Yo-jong, first vice director of the Workers’ Party of Korea’s Central Committee and a woman of steadily growing power who has spoken on her older brother’s behalf several times in recent months, said on Friday that another summit with Trump would be “unpractical” and “not serve us at all.”


the face of hope for peace in the korean peninsula.

during the three weeks when Kim Jong-un was unseen in public and rumored to be dead earlier this year, she appeared as the face of the ruling family. But it is very unusual for her to be issuing a policy statement of this magnitude, especially now that her brother is back in the public eye. (He is still not seen in public as much as before, raising questions about his health.)
(did anyone else forget that this happened?)
   7059. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:01 PM (#5962702)
and i hope someone in joe biden's camp makes it clear that there will be hellfire and brimstone waiting for any company that makes such an announcement within 8 weeks of election day.


and all c-suite families and Directors' families must be publicly inoculated.
   7060. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:04 PM (#5962703)
There's a non-zero probability that since massive corners are being cut the first vaccine will be a disaster
Are corners being cut, or is it more emphasis & funding for vaccine research? Priority reviews & decisions, rather than bureaucratic delays? I wouldn’t discount the effects of a Manhattan Project type of effort, along with researchers & government officials being more motivated than they might otherwise be. A bit of luck wouldn’t hurt, either.
   7061. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:10 PM (#5962704)
The politicization of the vaccine is going to be a shitshow. However it happens.
   7062. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:13 PM (#5962706)
The politicization of the vaccine is going to be a shitshow. However it happens.

where was the concern for "politicization" when republican mobs started threatening public health officials (armed with assault rifles in front of these peoples' homes, no less) for recommending that people wear face masks in public?

   7063. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:23 PM (#5962711)
[7066] fair. redacted.
   7064. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:24 PM (#5962712)
where was the concern for "politicization" when republican mobs started threatening public health officials (armed with assault rifles in front of these peoples' homes, no less) for recommending that people wear face masks in public?

Um, in like every other comment I've made? The insane political push against masks and social distancing is one of the most distressing things I've ever seen, and I've commented on it here effusively.
   7065. Esmailyn Gonzalez Sr. Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:26 PM (#5962714)
#6996 Yeah. I mentioned Winnipeg. They're doing great now but if they'd had the terrible luck to be in the first wave they'd still be dealing with the consequences.


One active case as of today.
   7066. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:28 PM (#5962716)
7063 those numbers are ridiculously wrong and I have tried to flag it as misinformation to Quora. For states that report cumulative hospitalizations, there have been 264k hospitalizations and 88k deaths. That implies only 2 additional hospitalizations per death, not 19. Now, some of the state data looks a bit questionable to me — a few states showing deaths equal to 75% of those hospitalized, which is definitely not correct. But the median rate for all states reporting is 26% so it’s probably more like 3-4 additional hospitalizations per death, not 19.
   7067. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:32 PM (#5962718)
And then going from there — he claims in his sourcing that 19% of those hospitalized have permanent heart damage. If 5% of those hospitalized die (his number) then that means only ~4 people with hear damage for every death, not 18. And if, say, 26% of those hospitalized die (see my post 7066) then it’s only 0.7 with heart damage for every person who dies — again, not 18.
   7068. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:38 PM (#5962719)
7063 those numbers are ridiculously wrong and I have tried to flag it as misinformation to Quora. For states that report cumulative hospitalizations, there have been 264k hospitalizations and 88k deaths. That implies only 2 additional hospitalizations per death, not 19. Now, some of the state data looks a bit questionable to me (a few states showing 75% of those hospitalized died, which is definitely not correct). But the median rate for all states reporting is 26% so it’s probably more like 3-4 additional hospitalizations per death, not 19.

so, i blanked the excerpt, but i do wonder what those numbers would look like like if they weren't wishcasted by a devoted admirer of the IMHE model.
   7069. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:44 PM (#5962720)
Um, in like every other comment I've made? The insane political push against masks and social distancing is one of the most distressing things I've ever seen, and I've commented on it here effusively.

i know i quoted you, but my comment wasn't specifically directed towards you.

also, there's a difference between disagreeing on the merits of an issue and disagreeing with the "politicization" of the merits of an issue. i don't get the impression that you care about the politics of a person who isn't wearing a mask; you just want them to wear a ####### mask.
   7070. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:47 PM (#5962721)
The politicization of the vaccine is going to be a shitshow. However it happens.
I am truly starting to wonder if there is anything that would not be politicized at this point. I just hope in the future I don't have to vote for the pro-puppy party over the pro-kitten party or I will be labeled "part of the problem".
   7071. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:52 PM (#5962722)
#7039:

Contrast that with Italy, which peaks and comes right back down (not as fast as one might have hoped, but there's a clear negative slope). Or New York, which shows the same shape.

I guess there are two separate questions here: (i) why is the increase stopping in "plateau" locations, and (ii) why aren't the numbers going back down. I can think of various possible explanations for this. Maybe lockdowns were better in Italy and NY -- elsewhere we're doing just enough to keep R_t at 1, but not enough to drop things back down?
Late in the peak of Italy's outbreak I was listening to a podcast (Talking Politics) with a semi-regular contributor from northern Italy. She and a couple of family members left their little village and went for a walk in a forest with no other people in it, where they were discovered by the police and forced to return home. I think that Italy's quarantine was much more of a true quarantine than any American version has been.
   7072. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:55 PM (#5962723)
7070 -- Vote that way and you are the problem
   7073. Laser Man Posted: July 13, 2020 at 04:57 PM (#5962724)
We were, but at the time it was just people coming from China
Screening is not the same thing as testing. Screening will not catch asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic cases. Even now, is the U.S. giving Covid tests to any passengers that arrive from overseas? Or are they just being asked to sef-quarantine for 14 days?
   7074. Ron J Posted: July 13, 2020 at 05:04 PM (#5962726)
#7073 I know temperature checks were part of the initial plans in a lot of places. Dusting off the playbook from SARS (where temperature checks work very well)

But I'm pretty sure that even now the US isn't testing passengers.
   7075. Greg K Posted: July 13, 2020 at 05:12 PM (#5962727)
Are corners being cut, or is it more emphasis & funding for vaccine research? Priority reviews & decisions, rather than bureaucratic delays? I wouldn’t discount the effects of a Manhattan Project type of effort, along with researchers & government officials being more motivated than they might otherwise be. A bit of luck wouldn’t hurt, either.

My understanding of the Oxford vaccine is that they are allowing preliminary results from one stage to be used for the next one as if they were final. Though admittedly, my knowledge of this comes entirely from Economist articles I've perused.
   7076. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 13, 2020 at 05:16 PM (#5962729)

#7073 I know temperature checks were part of the initial plans in a lot of places. Dusting off the playbook from SARS (where temperature checks work very well)

I think the problem with temperature checks for COVID vs. SARS is that people take longer to show symptoms of COVID, more cases are asymptomatic, and asymptomatic people can still spread the disease. That being said, temp checks are much better than no temp checks -- my office is employing them as well as the doctor who I had to go to a few weeks ago.
   7077. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 05:19 PM (#5962733)
Based on the first counties to report today, I was about ready to say the cases were down, although deaths were up.

Then Harris County came in above 2000 new cases for the first time.
   7078. puck Posted: July 13, 2020 at 05:34 PM (#5962738)
I never understood the continued existence of fax machines once email became nearly ubiquitous.


There were pockets such as real estate and law that hung onto it out of inertia in people's work flows.

But faxes are huge in health care. Generally speaking, companies' HIPAA guidelines don't allow emailing patient data across the internet without enforcing end to end encryption. So people send faxes instead.
   7079. Laser Man Posted: July 13, 2020 at 06:15 PM (#5962743)
I think the problem with temperature checks for COVID vs. SARS is that people take longer to show symptoms of COVID, more cases are asymptomatic, and asymptomatic people can still spread the disease.
Right, so if countries are serious about limiting the spread of the virus from incoming travelers, the solution is either a fast Covid test, and/or a strict quarantine. Temperature checks and questionnaires are not enough by themselves.
   7080. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 13, 2020 at 06:20 PM (#5962744)
I think the problem with temperature checks for COVID vs. SARS is that people take longer to show symptoms of COVID, more cases are asymptomatic, and asymptomatic people can still spread the disease.
also, temperature checks are effective at screening people who have fevers...which is not an evergreen symptom of covid.
   7081. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 13, 2020 at 06:51 PM (#5962746)
American Airlines has said it is investigating after Senator Ted Cruz was photographed in apparent violation of its policy mandating use of face masks during the coronavirus pandemic by all passengers and crew on Sunday, per CBS News.
...
Cruz was flying to Granbury, Texas to attend a GOP fundraiser on Sunday evening. A spokesperson for Cruz’s office told CBS that the senator was in fact in possession of a mask—something that’s unpopular in certain wings of the Republican Party—but he had merely removed it to drink a beverage, something that American’s policy makes an exception for... However, a second shot shows Cruz hanging out at a gate, similarly mask-free.


trigger warning: death cult.
   7082. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 13, 2020 at 07:22 PM (#5962749)
I guess there are two separate questions here: (i) why is the increase stopping in "plateau" locations, and (ii) why aren't the numbers going back down. I can think of various possible explanations for this. Maybe lockdowns were better in Italy and NY -- elsewhere we're doing just enough to keep R_t at 1, but not enough to drop things back down?

Probably, yes. The Google mobility data is certainly imperfect, but I have been looking at the average of changes in activity at Retail and Entertainment locations, Transit stations, and workplaces for the month of April, when most places were probably at peak lockdown.

Activity in Spain was down 80%
Activity in Italy was down 75%
Activity in NY/NJ was down 61% (CT only down 49%)
Activity in the US overall was down 46%
Activity in Brazil was down 50%

I will say that the mobility data doesn't seem to be that causal in terms of which states are seeing outbreaks in the US now. Florida doesn't look much different from Minnesota, for example, but the COVID testing results and fatalities have moved in very different directions.
   7083. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 13, 2020 at 07:33 PM (#5962750)
I will say that the mobility data doesn't seem to be that causal in terms of which states are seeing outbreaks in the US now. Florida doesn't look much different from Minnesota, for example, but the COVID testing results and fatalities have moved in very different directions.
exponential growth cannot start from zero. it needs a "seed" in order to take hold.
the more "seeds" a place has, the more likely it is to have a "superspreader event" where the population of infected persons explodes.
two people can be quarantined effectively. hell, even without quarantine, maybe you just get lucky and noone else happens to catch it.
the odds of getting lucky go down significantly with each successive additional seed.


two caveats:
-- well-considered public health efforts can increase the chances of getting lucky and staying lucky, but a big factor of this simply comes down to the number of seed cases at the outset.

-- having seen what NYC has done, we do know that even the worst covid outbreaks can be reigned in. that means "luck" and "seed population" are not the end-all, be-all. but it's the largest factor, imo, when comparing the disparate outcomes between most localities.



*say you what you will about my tendency to drag "politics" into politics, and to call certain other posters worthless ####### shitstains, but you cannot assert that 57i66135 posts are wholly devoid of relevant content.
   7084. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 09:09 PM (#5962761)

I will say that the mobility data doesn't seem to be that causal in terms of which states are seeing outbreaks in the US now. Florida doesn't look much different from Minnesota, for example, but the COVID testing results and fatalities have moved in very different directions.


At what time point are you looking, Dave. When Children's Hospital of Philly and Royal College of Medicine (London) called the outbreaks in TCx, FL, GA, and maybe AZ back in May the mobility difference was evident. That's what they used.
   7085. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2020 at 10:25 PM (#5962766)
Florida doesn't look much different from Minnesota, for example


Wonder how big an influence tourism is.
   7086. Srul Itza Posted: July 13, 2020 at 10:32 PM (#5962768)
Governor Ige announced today that he intends to extend Hawaii's 14 day quarantine of out-of-state travelers through the end of August, instead of stopping it at the end of July. There was a lot of talk about testing tourists in advance of arriving and other safety protocols, but pretty much nothing had been put in place, and even the planning was not moving forward with anything approaching urgency, so this is not a real surprise. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.

Meanwhile, we added 22 new cases, and 3 cases to our fatality total, which is the most we've ever had in one day:

An elderly Kauai woman who died in Arizona, while receiving treatment for several months for underlying medical conditions
A woman who had been a resident of a care home, who died in an Oahu hospital Sunday morning
An elderly Oahu man with underlying medical issues

As a semi-elderly Oahu man, I am not encouraged.
   7087. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 13, 2020 at 10:40 PM (#5962770)
7084 I’m charting the entire period from mid-March until July 7.(which is as far as the Google data goes right now). If I showed you FL vs MN, or FL vs CT, you wouldn’t be able to guess which was which. If I showed you TX vs. OH, again you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference. If you can link to an article about those studies that you refer to I’d be interested in taking a look. The Imperial College model from May predicted the following states would have the worst outbreaks using cell phone data, they came up with the following list:

In 24 states, however, the model shows a reproduction number over 1. Texas tops the list, followed by Arizona, Illinois, Colorado, Ohio, Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa, Alabama, Wisconsin, Mississippi, Tennessee, Florida, Virginia, New Mexico, Missouri, Delaware, South Carolina, Massachusetts, North Carolina, California, Pennsylvania, Louisiana and Maryland.


A pretty mixed bag there — some that indeed saw rapid growth, some that didn’t.

I am not saying that behavior has nothing to do with the spread, I just think there is some luck involved and Google data is probably not measuring the right behaviors (or I’m not looking at the data correctly). For example, Google isn’t measuring mask usage or social distancing at any of these locations, just whether people are going there.

Also, the Google data is showing change from a baseline level of activity. So if the baseline in, say, FL involved more COVID-spreading behavior, then an equivalent decline from the baseline might still result in faster spread there.
   7088. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 11:03 PM (#5962771)
Thanks Dave. I meant Imperial not Royal (what's a colonial democrat know about that stuff). Its a very mixed bag of states; MA is doing very well.

I don't have a link handy, and when I want to Children's Hospital I stumbled on their projected cases 4 weeks out by county page, saw that they underbid today for Harris County (some of that might be weekend lag, I hope) but they're predicting it to be 300 percent of today's number by 2 August and decided not to play any longer.
   7089. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 13, 2020 at 11:20 PM (#5962772)
All the President’s Lies About the Coronavirus

Soon to be outdated, but someone had to collect them.
   7090. Howie Menckel Posted: July 13, 2020 at 11:35 PM (#5962773)
has anyone figured out what is and isn't happening in Georgia for the past 3 months?

haven't seen a good analysis
   7091. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 13, 2020 at 11:48 PM (#5962774)
“We spent months saying that there were certain things that were essential, and that included fast food restaurants, it included Walmart, it included Home Depot,” the governor said at a news conference in Jacksonville with U.S. Secretary of Labor Eugene Scalia. “But if all that is essential, than educating our kids is absolutely essential. ... If you can do these things, we absolutely can do the schools.”

On schools, DeSantis cited CDC studies to stress that children under 18 don’t generally spread the disease, adding that he “would not hesitate” putting his own children in school if they were school-age. His children are 3, 2, and 3 months old.
...
Thursday, there were reports Thursday of 82 children and staff at a Missouri sleep-away camp being infected.

trigger warning: death cult.
   7092. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 14, 2020 at 01:16 AM (#5962777)
   7093. BrianBrianson Posted: July 14, 2020 at 02:55 AM (#5962778)
We were screening people at airports the first week of February, so we knew this was dangerous more than a month before acting on it. So to me the uncertainty of the virus should mean more precautions should have been taken. When you don't know the path in front of you more caution is necessary, so even that "bad luck" was poor decision making.


This is because these things aren't happening in a bubble. Yeah, we have limited abilities to do serious lockdowns, whatever else, but if we did it every year or so real fatigue would set it. Nevermind that the longer we're locked down, the more you have to start adding stuff to the "essentials" list - during quarantine, my son asked me if optometrists were open, but of course I wasn't sure; they're not essential on a day to day basis, but on a week to week, or month to month? At some point, yeah. Ditto clothing stores, or appliance stores - we can say a lot of stuff is inessential, but essentials are spread across a lot of places. Air conditioners are a mostly a luxury, but get a summer heat wave and it can kill off a lot of people - we might've had more excessive deaths in the 2003 heat wave than we did from COVID.

So, of course hindsight is 2020 (Ha!), but we're not going to transition to a place were this can never happen again, except by tech. Even the Wuhan lockdown only worked because you could support them externally from a much larger economy. And, of course, lockdowns won't always work - diseases can have animal reservoirs, they can be virii that can remain dormant forever on surfaces and such, all kinds of issues.

I know there's no way, really, to divorce yourself from what you know, and consider counterfactuals on other probable ways this could have played out, but really, in January/February approaching this like SARS or MERS probably was the most intelligent way to do it. New pathogens are identified a few times a year, and global responses like what have turned out to be necessary for this really aren't feasible.

It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life.
   7094. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:30 AM (#5962784)
I am hardly an expert, but I can speak to Minnesota and how people have behaved. Here in the major metro area (Twin Cities), mask usage has been high and people have taken the pandemic pretty seriously. I have done some traveling to the outer reaches of the metro area (up to an hour in a couple of different directions) and as soon as you leave the cities mask usage drops and it is clearly taken less seriously.

One thing both urban and rural areas agree on though is outdoor activities. We don't get much warm weather up here on the tundra, so when it gets warm we go out. Hunting, fishing, boating, biking, you name it. So it doesn't surprise me that Minnesotans are pretty mobile. But the mobility is to get to places where we can enjoy the out of doors.

If I had to guess Florida has several disadvantages relative to Minnesota, even given roughly the same mobility data. Floridians have tourism, many metro areas, are traveling from one indoor location to the next air-conditioned location. Since the dense population centers in MN are taking it seriously, there is much less tourism, and much of the travel is to get to outdoor activities, I suspect the virus has a much harder time getting "purchase" in MN relative to Florida. Also, I think that Florida is probably older than Minnesota on average.

All that is just guesses and anecdotal observations though.
   7095. PreservedFish Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:33 AM (#5962785)
but really, in January/February approaching this like SARS or MERS probably was the most intelligent way to do it.


Impossible for me to say. China's response in Wuhan was obviously commensurate with them taking it very, very seriously as a tremendous threat. But interpreting their actions was as much a question of Sinology and statecraft as it was of epidemiology.

Nevertheless, South Korea remains the shining example of a country that took this ####### seriously and dealt with it ####### effectively with basically zero information to go on other than their own interpretations of what was going on in China. That's a dense country that got the bug early and crushed it.

It's tough to imagine a counterfactual where the US shuts down all international travel in mid-February, based only on what we knew about Wuhan. But it's not tough to imagine one where they have robust testing capacity by that point, and guidelines to deploy that capability effectively, and therefore substantially dulled the peaks we had in March and April.

The math on prevention has been forever changed by this event - in the future hopefully it'll be no big thing to marshal funding/labor for manufacturing a gazillion tests for the next potential epidemic weeks before we learn if it'll actually be a serious problem or not.
   7096. Tony S Posted: July 14, 2020 at 09:13 AM (#5962787)
It's tough to imagine a counterfactual where the US shuts down all international travel in mid-February, based only on what we knew about Wuhan. But it's not tough to imagine one where they have robust testing capacity by that point, and guidelines to deploy that capability effectively, and therefore substantially dulled the peaks we had in March and April.


If the NSC pandemic response team that had been left in place by previous administrations had not been disbanded, we might have had a much more effective initial response.
   7097. Tony S Posted: July 14, 2020 at 09:33 AM (#5962789)
Wonder how big an influence tourism is.


My guess is that individuals who are taking multi-day, long-distance trips (out of pleasure, not necessity) are, as a group, less likely to take the virus seriously.

   7098. Ron J Posted: July 14, 2020 at 09:36 AM (#5962790)
#7096 Color me skeptical.

First of all, expertise is only useful if it's listened to. Maybe the team gets listened to but …

Second, consider what happened in England. So much of what went wrong there came from faithfully following a plan for the wrong pandemic. Yes, leadership didn't help, but neither did the advisory team.
   7099. Tony S Posted: July 14, 2020 at 09:43 AM (#5962791)
#7096 Color me skeptical.

First of all, expertise is only useful if it's listened to. Maybe the team gets listened to but …

Second, consider what happened in England. So much of what went wrong there came from faithfully following a plan for the wrong pandemic. Yes, leadership didn't help, but neither did the advisory team.


Well, it is possible that your home insurance policy might not cover all the damage if you have a fire. But if you cancel it, you won't have any coverage at all.
   7100. Greg Pope Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:18 AM (#5962792)
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