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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 8859 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   7101. Greg Pope Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:19 AM (#5962793)
god ####### dammit 2020.

The creator of the greatest sidekick in talk show history.

RIP.
   7102. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:21 AM (#5962794)
I don't know if the response would be been optimal under different leadership, but it is hard to imagine it would have been much worse (well Brazil or Sweden, maybe).
   7103. Ron J Posted: July 14, 2020 at 11:21 AM (#5962804)
#7102 Worth noting that Sweden's plan is the work of an epidemiologist. Granted, a polarizing figure within the discipline. Well, I guess polarizing is the wrong word. Sweden lucked into the only person in the field willing to adopt the route he did.
   7104. Der-K's emotional investment is way up Posted: July 14, 2020 at 11:39 AM (#5962807)
What a strange and terrible on its face idea that dude had. Even had it "worked", you still wouldn't have herd immunity for at risk populations because exposure wasn't being spread homogeneously (therefore, herd immunity wouldn't extend to them).
(I'm no epidemiologist but when I asked one about this they said "of course".)
   7105. Ron J Posted: July 14, 2020 at 11:45 AM (#5962809)
#7104 He's explicitly denied going for herd immunity. His idea seems to have been that once you have community spread, you have a set number of cases. All they were aiming to do was prevent the hospitals from ever being overwhelmed.
   7106. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 11:56 AM (#5962810)
Sweden lucked into the only person in the field willing to adopt the route he did.


Only because Trump and Johnson didn't know about him, but yes.
   7107. Ron J Posted: July 14, 2020 at 12:11 PM (#5962812)
All of you American who had plans for a Canadian summer vacation (come on, who doesn't want to see Northern Ontario in black fly season?) will have to wait. Looks like the border will stay closed to non-essential travel until August 21 at the earliest.

Not sure whether this will impact MLB's plans. And as far as I know, the NHL still hasn't officially announced Toronto or Edmonton as hubs. I know the Premier of Ontario is less and less enthused about granting exemptions.
   7108. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 12:20 PM (#5962816)
Good for Canada. Let Americans "virus-fatigue" themselves to death. We're doing that in TX.

Last evening I noted that Children's Hospital of Philadelphia is projecting 6,000 infections/day for Harris county alone (triple the largest daily total so far). Today I read that Mayor Turner is looking at a two-week shutdown, though is it enough?
“We have to acknowledge the fact that we opened too quickly, too soon,” Turner told KPRC on Saturday. “We have to acknowledge the fact that the numbers are continuing to rise. We have to recognize the fact that not everybody is going to put on this mask. Let’s just be real, even with the requirement. Knowing all of that and knowing what works, you’ve got to recalibrate.”

One area school system (Fort Bend County) announced that it's starting the semester online.
The deadline has passed for teachers to submit retirement notices; no word yet on how many did rather than risk being ordered into a classroom, but fewer teachers is not the right way to respond to this situation.
   7109. PreservedFish Posted: July 14, 2020 at 12:24 PM (#5962818)
The book on Sweden is not closed yet. If any of these various scenarios come true where we can't just apply a simple and effective vaccine, then it's likely that all those additional illnesses and deaths were always going to happen anyway.
   7110. PreservedFish Posted: July 14, 2020 at 12:25 PM (#5962819)
All of you American who had plans for a Canadian summer vacation (come on, who doesn't want to see Northern Ontario in black fly season?) will have to wait.


Actually, we were planning on driving to Nova Scotia. That's now officially dead, I guess, not that we had much hope for our plans.
   7111. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 14, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5962822)

Cuomo has now added Minnesota to the list of states from which visitors to NY have to self-quarantine for 14 days (as well as New Mexico, Wisconsin and Ohio), saying they have significant community spread now. I don't necessarily see it in the MN numbers I'm looking at, but that doesn't mean he's wrong.
   7112. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 14, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5962827)
Cuomo has now added Minnesota to the list of states from which visitors to NY have to self-quarantine for 14 days (as well as New Mexico, Wisconsin and Ohio),


New Mexico? Am I missing something? I very well could be but looking at their %-positive from yesterday was 4.4% and their numbers don't seem too high. Is there something specific I am missing?
   7113. Ron J Posted: July 14, 2020 at 01:28 PM (#5962829)
#7112 I'm guess it's simple proximity to Texas.
   7114. Ron J Posted: July 14, 2020 at 01:34 PM (#5962831)
Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins announced Monday that city leaders and commissioners will decline the federal government’s help with testing because wait times for coronavirus test results are too long.

Coronavirus testing at the Ellis Davis Field House was taking eight to 10 days to yield results.

   7115. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 14, 2020 at 01:35 PM (#5962832)
I'm guess it's simple proximity to Texas.


And Arizona. Maybe more so Arizona (my impression is that the Eastern part of Texas is worse than the Western part, but I could be wrong about that).
   7116. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 01:41 PM (#5962833)
Mostly correct, Kiko, but only because other than El Paso there's nobody in west Tx.
   7117. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 14, 2020 at 01:47 PM (#5962835)
I'm guess it's simple proximity to Texas.

Isn't that like lumping Boston in with Montreal or Philadelphia in with Buffalo? Proximity is kinda relative.

Edit: That works with Arizona as well
   7118. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 14, 2020 at 01:50 PM (#5962836)
could it be how New Mexico's flights typically get to NY? Maybe the flights have to go through either Arizona or Texas.
   7119. Lassus Posted: July 14, 2020 at 01:50 PM (#5962837)
All of you American who had plans for a Canadian summer vacation (come on, who doesn't want to see Northern Ontario in black fly season?) will have to wait. Looks like the border will stay closed to non-essential travel until August 21 at the earliest.
Actually, we were planning on driving to Nova Scotia. That's now officially dead, I guess, not that we had much hope for our plans.


We had a mid-August road trip planned from Central NY to PEI for 9 days or so that we cancelled back in April. I guess we did the right thing. We were going to do Nova Scotia as well, but we mercilessly over-planned our week in the UK last year and decided to scale back to JUST PEI in this case. Sadly, our intelligent planning was told to #### right the #### off.

Bummed, though. Was really looking forward to it.
   7120. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5962840)
The book on Sweden is not closed yet. If any of these various scenarios come true where we can't just apply a simple and effective vaccine, then it's likely that all those additional illnesses and deaths were always going to happen anyway.


So Norway would pull even?
   7121. Ron J Posted: July 14, 2020 at 01:58 PM (#5962841)
#7118 That makes a lot of sense.
   7122. Lassus Posted: July 14, 2020 at 02:03 PM (#5962843)
I'm happy to lump Buffalo and Philadelphia together as cities I don't want to visit.
   7123. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 02:24 PM (#5962846)
I'm happy to lump Buffalo and Philadelphia together as cities I don't want to visit.
for you, guy. for you.
   7124. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 02:27 PM (#5962847)
Stripping away someone’s visa for the crime of, uh, staying indoors during a pandemic that requires social distancing wouldn’t only be a gut punch to the tech companies that rely on this outsourced labor, but to the American educational system writ large. As the Washington Post reported last week, close to 400,000 student visas were issued for the 2018 school year—and as we’d pointed out with our own coverage at the time, the two schools that spearheaded the initial lawsuit against the DHS, MIT and Harvard, have thousands of students a piece who are either on F-1 visas or nonimmigrant visas. Since then, around 60 other universities have filed their own brief to back the suit, and 17 states wrote their own separate suit over the order.

link
   7125. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 02:33 PM (#5962848)
In a country where health coverage has long been treated as a luxury, linked to certain kinds of white collar employment, the coronavirus has made health coverage an amenity fewer can afford. That’s according to the early findings of a study released this week conducted by the nonpartisan consumer advocacy group Families U.S.A., which found that during the early stages of the pandemic a staggering 5.4 million laid off Americans lost their health insurance in a matter of weeks. That’s a historic drop off and nearly 40 percent higher than during the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009. And it’s not over—the pandemic is getting worse, not better and the economy might not be far behind.
the country’s health infrastructure is once again creaking, and more and more Americans don’t have health insurance to protect them against ruin, physical or financial. It should not surprise you that the portions of the country that have the highest rates of uninsured, according to the Families U.S.A. study, are states that refused federal help in expanding Medicaid as part of Obamacare. “In the 37 states that expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, 23 percent of laid off workers became uninsured,” the study found. “The percentage was nearly double that—43 percent—in the 13 states that did not expand Medicaid, which include Texas, Florida and North Carolina.”
There are now eight states in the country where more than 20 percent of the population below the age of 65 does not have health insurance: Texas (29 percent); Florida (25 percent);[...]

trigger warning: death cult.
   7126. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 02:36 PM (#5962849)
The Chinese government is accused of detaining more than a million people from the Uighur and other ethnic groups in reeducation camps and prisons in Xinjiang. According to an AP report last week, China has been forcing IUDs, sterilization, and abortion on ethnic minorities in Xinjiang, even as it encourages many members of the majority Han ethnic group to have more children, a practice that has been described as “demographic genocide.”

Not everyone in the U.S. is so bothered by this.

link
   7127. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 02:42 PM (#5962850)
A controversial, highly influential study involving the drug hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for covid-19—one that helped launch months of research and failed clinical trials—has now been sharply criticized within the pages of the same scientific journal that published it.
...
the decision by Raoult’s team to exclude from the study’s final results six patients who took hydroxychloroquine, including four whose condition worsened, one of whom eventually died during the study period (none in the control group died).
...
Another new paper, also published yesterday, similarly criticizes the French study, noting that “this trial has several major methodological issues, including the design, outcome measure and the statistical analyses.”
...
There are still die-hard supporters of the drug, including President Trumprug
link
   7128. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 02:57 PM (#5962851)
Abbott initially dismissed the uptick in cases, saying that it was a result of more testing — a sign that things were going well — not a cause for alarm. Then he played down the cases, explaining that the uptick was confined to jails, meatpacking plants and nursing homes and therefore not a concern for the wider population. When it became clear that young adults were driving the surge, he admonished individual groups to take more personal responsibility for protecting themselves. On June 12, he told reporters that he was concerned but not alarmed. On June 17, he clarified his mask-ordinance ban, saying that county leaders could order businesses to order customers to cover their faces. But by then, mask wearing itself had become a cultural flash point, every bit as contentious as business closures and rapid reopenings.


And when Turner and Hidalgo and other big-city mayors and urban-county judges pushed back, it was all about making the GOP look bad, the usual suspects said.
Bullshit, they make themselves look bad.
   7129. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 03:03 PM (#5962852)
And when Turner and Hidalgo and other big-city mayors and urban-county judges pushed back, it was all about making the GOP look bad, the usual suspects said.
Bullshit, they make themselves look bad.
...and not a single person complained about abbott "politicizing" legitimate critique and dissent.


because "politicization" is not a real thing; it's just a red herrig that gets shat into conversations by people who know they're wrong on the merits.
   7130. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 03:10 PM (#5962854)
The Texas Tribune reported that Nueces County, which includes Corpus Christi, has requested a refrigerated morgue trailer to accommodate a surge in deaths. Travis County is also in the process of procuring a similar trailer, and Cameron County bought a 53-foot refrigerated trailer in preparation for a surge.

Last week, the Houston Chronicle reported that a refrigerated trailer was briefly needed at Houston Healthcare Northwest. Memorial Hermann Health System is also deploying trailers "as needed," while Baylor St. Luke’s Medical Center has one on site that has not been used yet.


   7131. Karl from NY Posted: July 14, 2020 at 03:12 PM (#5962856)
#7104 He's explicitly denied going for herd immunity. His idea seems to have been that once you have community spread, you have a set number of cases. All they were aiming to do was prevent the hospitals from ever being overwhelmed.

That idea of a set number of cases is herd immunity. He has to deny it because nobody can say it or else get screamed down for desiring death -- but the actions and results were the path to get to herd immunity on a time frame for the medical system to handle.

I recently saw this revelation that makes all the sense in the world. Herd immunity takes effect at 1 - 1/R0. Call it 75% if R0 is 4, when 3 out of 4 spreads don't happen because the target is resistant, then the infection count will go down. But that's not 75% of people, that's 75% of potential spread events. Spreadable events can be very asymmetric among people, compare a retail food worker or transit conductor to a tech work-from-homer. If 25% of people account for 75% of potential spread events and they all already had it, then that's herd immunity at a much lower threshold than 1 - 1/R0 would seem to indicate. (We did mention the idea of asymmetric spread upthread somewhere, but it just clicked for me today on seeing another writeup somewhere.)

This is what happened in New York. NY's numbers went and stayed down not because New Yorkers are good at lockdowns and masking, it went down because all the high-interaction people already had it. That curve of washing out after roughly 25% antibody prevalence has played out everywhere - Italy, Spain, France, London, NY, NJ. Brazil is now nearing that. CA/TX/FL are up currently not because it's a "second wave", it's because they never had a first. They will rage for another few weeks and then gradually subside just like NY and everywhere else did.
   7132. PreservedFish Posted: July 14, 2020 at 03:14 PM (#5962857)
Karl, do you have a link? Sounds suspicious to me.

Days ago someone sent me a very, very long article that argued something similar, and I couldn't make it through the whole thing.
   7133. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 14, 2020 at 03:15 PM (#5962858)
That curve of washing out after roughly 25% antibody prevalence has played out everywhere - Italy, Spain, France, London, NY, NJ.


Nowhere in Spain has 25% antibody prevalence. In the Madrid area, it is at 10-11%. In Barcelona, it is around 7%.
   7134. BrianBrianson Posted: July 14, 2020 at 03:15 PM (#5962859)
How you evaluate Sweden's outcome depends a lot on how you decide what countries to compare it to. There are various probably reasonable choices, but it's pretty clear it's hard to be ... whatever the equivalent of double-blind is.
   7135. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 14, 2020 at 03:27 PM (#5962860)
7131 is another of those theories that says all efforts to contain the virus are ill-advised and counterproductive.

In this case, the "theory" (more like a justification for doing noting) says that if we let the virus it run its course it will top out at 20-25% of the population, killing 0.2%. That's .04 or .05% of the population, which is only 130,000-170,000 people. In other words, we are basically there--we just have to stop doing anything about it and it will go away.
   7136. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 03:27 PM (#5962861)
Karl, are you saying that NY, NJ should just open everything up again because they got their 25%?

That would be an interesting experiment, not one I'd order.

And NOBODY is arguing this is a second wave. At least nobody serious.
   7137. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 14, 2020 at 03:31 PM (#5962862)
This is what happened in New York. NY's numbers went and stayed down not because New Yorkers are good at lockdowns and masking, it went down because all the high-interaction people already had it.


But the number of "high-interaction people" and the number of potential spreader events aren't static. I think it's plausible that, essentially, virtually everybody who was still interacting in public in NY City - bus drivers, delivery drivers, cops, etc. - was exposed to COVID-19 by the end of April (although that's at odds with various antibody test results that were reported by Gov. Cuomo). But perhaps 50-75% of the population of New York City was not interacting with other people and was therefore never exposed - not because such people never interact with people, but because these people were able to go into full lockdown (or flee the city).

This leads to the same danger as the idea of locking down the elderly and vulnerable while everybody else just goes about their business and takes their chances with the disease. That only works if you've driven the numbers all the way down to zero before re-introducing the locked-down population. Otherwise, you just suddenly have a brand new population with no immunity as soon as you open things back up.
   7138. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 14, 2020 at 03:59 PM (#5962865)

This is what happened in New York. NY's numbers went and stayed down not because New Yorkers are good at lockdowns and masking, it went down because all the high-interaction people already had it. That curve of washing out after roughly 25% antibody prevalence has played out everywhere - Italy, Spain, France, London, NY, NJ. Brazil is now nearing that. CA/TX/FL are up currently not because it's a "second wave", it's because they never had a first. They will rage for another few weeks and then gradually subside just like NY and everywhere else did.


Sorry, this makes little sense. First off, *none* of those places had anywhere close to 25% antibody rates except for NYC. Antibody prevalence in Spain was 5%, Sweden 6% (Stockholm 10%), NY State overall 12%, Boston 10%.

Look at the four most populous regions of Spain -- their antibody prevalence rates ranged from 2.5% (Valencia), 2.7% (Andalucia), 5.4% (Catalunya), 11.3% (Madrid). Yet they all basically followed the same curve in terms of fatalities, peaking within a few days of each other.

Frankly, it doesn't even make sense that every country/region would have the same percentage of "high interaction" people. But I feel pretty confident that the range of such people isn't 25% in NYC, 11% in Madrid, 5% in Catalunya, and 2-3% in Andalucia/Valencia.
   7139. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 04:03 PM (#5962866)
CA/TX/FL are up currently not because it's a "second wave", it's because they never had a first. They will rage for another few weeks and then gradually subside just like NY and everywhere else did.


Of course, that's not even a testable hypothesis given that states have rolled back their re-openings.
   7140. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 14, 2020 at 05:02 PM (#5962870)

The Trump admin has withdrawn the rule about foreign students losing their visas if they only take online classes.
   7141. Karl from NY Posted: July 14, 2020 at 05:58 PM (#5962877)
Karl, do you have a link? Sounds suspicious to me.

I found it from Reddit a day or two ago, didn't save the link. It was poorly written so I restated it in what I thought were better words.

The argument itself doesn't need any particular source - it's just logic. If R0 is 4 but 75% of possible spreads meet resistance, the spread no longer increases. If X% of people account for 75% of interactions, then herd immunity occurs at X% rather than 75%. I'm advancing that argument in general, not necessarily the specifics of antibody or high-interaction rates. (There's also evidence that antibodies don't tell the whole story of resistance, there are other factors like previous coronavirus infections, past immunizations like MMR, T-cell immune system response working before any detectable level of antibodies. I left that part out to simplify the argument but now I see I have to bring it in.)

Any counterarguments need to explain this: why is NY/NJ staying stable while CA/FL/TX are flaring up? By far the most direct explanation is that NY/NJ already got to effective herd immunity. The lockdown rules are now similar enough (NY/NJ have relaxed, CA/TX increased) that that can't account for a 10x difference in present per-capita.

7131 is another of those theories that says all efforts to contain the virus are ill-advised and counterproductive.

Not necessarily all efforts. Flattening the curve to stay within medical system capacity still does make sense.

But yes, that is my general point. Containment is only ever temporary. You have to keep the lockdowns in place forever if you refuse to go to herd immunity. Or you can get over it in a few months like NY and Sweden did and Brazil is currently heading towards.
   7142. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 05:58 PM (#5962879)
7140 - a bridge too far for even Bully Barr?
   7143. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 06:01 PM (#5962881)
Well, ####, Reddit. Then in the face of such scientific prowess I withdraw all objections. Just point me to the COVID party and I'll do my share.
   7144. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 14, 2020 at 06:29 PM (#5962890)
It's not a binary between lockdowns and no lockdowns. Pretty sure there are reasons besides herd immunity that it is not currently spreading much in NYC. NYC still has aggressive containment, including no gatherings of over 50 people, indoor dining, or gyms. Nobody has been back to my office in midtown since March.

Subway ridership is still down 80%!

edit: if you are saying that it's more difficult for the virus to spread in an environment where more people are immune, well that's basically a tautology. Saying that NYC is at effective herd immunity is a much stronger statement, and almost certainly wrong.
   7145. PreservedFish Posted: July 14, 2020 at 06:30 PM (#5962891)
Karl, I submit that if this phenomenon were well-established, we would have heard about it before now.

"It's just logic" doesn't really cut it for me, because the logic relies on something that I've never even considered and have absolutely no way of evaluating, the idea that a minority of people conduct the majority of interactions. It also contradicts our understanding of disease spread, that is, that prolonged indoor encounters are the primary vector, which makes it less likely that bus drivers and baristas are responsible for the spread of the epidemic in NYC.

Any counterarguments need to explain this: why is NY/NJ staying stable while CA/FL/TX are flaring up?

Behavior. And unknown factors.

By far the most direct explanation is that NY/NJ already got to effective herd immunity.

Oh stop it, this is far too pat. Facile. Why did Germany have so much less death than Belgium? Why did Japan not experience an epidemic? Some of these things are just total unknowns. If you think you've hit on a theory that explains everything, you're guaranteed to be wrong.
   7146. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: July 14, 2020 at 06:39 PM (#5962893)
It's just mind boggling that there continue to be new and creative ways to soft pedal the risks of this virus.
   7147. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 14, 2020 at 06:59 PM (#5962894)

Any counterarguments need to explain this: why is NY/NJ staying stable while CA/FL/TX are flaring up? By far the most direct explanation is that NY/NJ already got to effective herd immunity. The lockdown rules are now similar enough (NY/NJ have relaxed, CA/TX increased) that that can't account for a 10x difference in present per-capita.

1. There's a lag at every step along the way between people's behavior --> infection --> symptoms --> test results --> fatalities.
2. The restrictions actually are still quite different between these various locations. NYC has never allowed indoor dining, for example, while Texas still allows it. NY never reopened gyms, in Texas they've been open since late May. Texas didn't require masks until July 2; NY has required them all along.
3. Personal behavior matters as much as, if not more than, the actual rules. Google mobility data shows NY activity was down 40% in June; Texas only 24% (across retail, entertainment, transit stations and workplaces).
4. If NY was much more locked down than TX through April-May, which it was, then it's possible Texas was starting from a higher level of infection a month ago.
5. Over a month, relatively small differences in R0 can make a big difference in total cases. If average time of transmission is 7 days, a state with an R0 of 1.1 will see cases increase by about 60% over 35 days. A state with an R0 of 1.5 will see cases increase by 760% over the same time period.
   7148. tshipman Posted: July 14, 2020 at 07:25 PM (#5962898)
At this point, the bad arguments offered in bad faith just make me angry.

The entire country needs to do a hard lockdown for 3-4 weeks. Every day that we don't do that is another interminable day that drags on with more cases and more preventable deaths because crayon-eating morons have to proffer another stupid theory instead of taking their medicine.

I cannot state strongly enough how disgusted I am with this garbage.
   7149. Jay Z Posted: July 14, 2020 at 07:30 PM (#5962900)

1. There's a lag at every step along the way between people's behavior --> infection --> symptoms --> test results --> fatalities.
2. The restrictions actually are still quite different between these various locations. NYC has never allowed indoor dining, for example, while Texas still allows it. NY never reopened gyms, in Texas they've been open since late May. Texas didn't require masks until July 2; NY has required them all along.
3. Personal behavior matters as much as, if not more than, the actual rules. Google mobility data shows NY activity was down 40% in June; Texas only 24% (across retail, entertainment, transit stations and workplaces).
4. If NY was much more locked down than TX through April-May, which it was, then it's possible Texas was starting from a higher level of infection a month ago.
5. Over a month, relatively small differences in R0 can make a big difference in total cases. If average time of transmission is 7 days, a state with an R0 of 1.1 will see cases increase by about 60% over 35 days. A state with an R0 of 1.5 will see cases increase by 760% over the same time period.


We really don't have the data to work with though. Data on the state wide or even country wide level is pretty much crap. Slapping a lot of preferred suppositions on crap is like polishing a turd.

Take Sweden. I don't live in Sweden, don't really know what they did or are doing. From a distance they were famous for changing very little, so maybe they're as good a control group as we can hope for.

Sweden has a similar death arc to New York. Quick run-up, then slow decline. Peak deaths around April 15.

For cases, slow run up until April 10th, about 500 cases a day there. Then always above 500, but more or less steady just a bit above 500. Then in late May a significant slope upward past 1,000 around the middle of June, then staying there until the end of the month. Then a steep decline to below 500 as of today.

So either they got a lot better at preventing deaths, or the case data is crap. Probably both. Many, likely most, cases not recorded in the early days due to lack of testing. So there's a big mountain of positive cases likely missing from March and April in particular.

I can't realistically project data like that. I certainly wouldn't try to apply any beliefs I had about the behavior of Swedes over the time period.
   7150. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 14, 2020 at 07:32 PM (#5962903)
I know it's a stupidly minor point, but using 6pm eastern as the cutoff for daily counts in the US makes almost no sense, and leads to lumpier data than is necessary. Almost everything reported on any given day happened on some earlier day anyway, so the only thing that really matters is being consistent day to day as much as possible. Having an artificial deadline in the middle of the day on the West Coast just means some days you get almost double the counts, and other days you get none of them (when states miss the deadline for reporting). Having a midnight pacific cutoff would solve almost the entire problem. If counts aren't officially totalled until 8am eastern a few hours later, what's the problem? At least the data day to day would be consistent.
   7151. Ron J Posted: July 14, 2020 at 07:45 PM (#5962905)
#7149 Sweden's had very low testing rates. I wouldn't rely on their cases data for much.
   7152. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 07:58 PM (#5962906)
At the height of New York’s pandemic in late March, an emergency room doctor at Maimonides Medical Center in Brooklyn named Cameron Kyle-Sidell posted a video on YouTube decrying the risks of relying on “a medical paradigm that is untrue.” Kyle-Sidell’s cri de coeur, which has drawn more than 800,000 views to date, now looks prescient: One study in New York City found that 88 percent of COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators died.

“What was happening at the bedside was so stark that it’s always been hard for me to accept the possibility that somehow we weren’t causing a significant amount of morbidity with our initial practice,” said Kyle-Sidell in a recent interview.
link
   7153. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:02 PM (#5962907)
I know it's a stupidly minor point, but using 6pm eastern as the cutoff for daily counts in the US makes almost no sense,

Small note: Worldometer uses 9 pm EDT as its flip time, but it does seem to go back and supplement late-reporting TX counties.

Speaking of TX. 10,720 new cases, 129 deaths. Better than without the state's mild rollback, not as good as getting serious. Sort of worst of both worlds. Then again, the GOP brand is proving that government is doomed to failure, so they're proving their point.
   7154. Karl from NY Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:03 PM (#5962908)
The entire country needs to do a hard lockdown for 3-4 weeks.

You don't understand what you're proposing. This gets nowhere. The virus starts right back up again as soon as you unlock.

You can't beat the virus with lockdowns. It just doesn't work that way. It's never going to zero and it starts right back up again as soon as any people ever interact.

We have to learn to live with it and understand the concept of acceptable risk. The only way out is through.
   7155. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:06 PM (#5962909)
We have to learn to live with it
Well, except for all the people who die.
   7156. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:08 PM (#5962911)
Yeah I wasn't referring to Worldometers, which is trying to account for the entire world. I was more referring to the US counts which mostly cut off at 6pm Eastern.
   7157. Karl from NY Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:14 PM (#5962914)
Behavior. And unknown factors.


How in the world do you think hand-wavey "unknown factors" is more likely than an actual logical argument presented with at least possible support for the data? Of course the argument and numbers for herd immunity are far from conclusive, and we'd want to know more before we relax all the lockdowns in NY/NJ/etc. But I bet the long run bears me out here, I predict that at least NYC will see no significant resurgence at any stage of reopening.


Why did Germany have so much less death than Belgium? Why did Japan not experience an epidemic?


This is a valid question. It seems that these societies have managed to keep R0 around 1 by behavior. These are known to be two of the most obedient rule-following societies in the world. Canada too follows this pattern, and perhaps the UK. But these places have to keep up their isolating behaviors forever.
   7158. greenback used to say live and let live Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:15 PM (#5962915)
1. There's a lag at every step along the way between people's behavior --> infection --> symptoms --> test results --> fatalities.

There's an extra step apparently after fatalities to reported fatalities.
   7159. PreservedFish Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:15 PM (#5962916)
This gets nowhere.


Except in Florida, Texas, Arizona, etc, places that are probably about to experience overwhelmed medical systems. A hard lockdown might well flatten the curve and save lives.

I don't see a reason to call for a hard lockdown in other parts of the country, particularly in places like where I live - there is still zero evidence of community transmission in my home county.

I'm hopeful that with reasonable adherence to masking, hygiene and distancing recommendations, and a halt on in-restaurant dining and such for the foreseeable future, we can make peace with a new normal that might last 2+ years. But if it does not work, I'm ready to call for more hard lockdowns.
   7160. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:18 PM (#5962917)
How in the world do you think hand-wavey "unknown factors" is more likely than an actual logical argument presented with at least possible support for the data? Of course the argument and numbers for herd immunity are far from conclusive, and we'd want to know more before we relax all the lockdowns in NY/NJ/etc. But I bet the long run bears me out here, I predict that at least NYC will see no significant resurgence at any stage of reopening.

aim smaller.


it doesn't matter if you think you're right because if you are wrong, the fallout would be calamitous. the risk/reward ratio in your stated position is a jumbling tower of death.
   7161. Laser Man Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:18 PM (#5962918)
You can't beat the virus with lockdowns. It just doesn't work that way. It's never going to zero and it starts right back up again as soon as any people ever interact.
Then how do you explain today's numbers (from Worldometers, at 8:15 ET) from other countries?
Germany - 330 cases, 5 deaths
Canada - 331, 8
Japan - 352, 0
South Korea - 33, 0
Italy - 114, 17
Spain - 666, 3
USA - 64,427 cases, 872 deaths

The virus will not "just start right back up again" after a lockdown if there are no (or few) active infections to spread the disease.
   7162. tshipman Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:18 PM (#5962919)
This is a valid question. It seems that these societies have managed to keep R0 around 1 by behavior. These are known to be two of the most obedient rule-following societies in the world. Canada too follows this pattern, and perhaps the UK. But these places have to keep up their isolating behaviors forever.


WAAAAAH, I MIGHT HAVE TO WEAR A MASK.

Grow the #### up.
   7163. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:23 PM (#5962920)
Germany - 330 cases, 5 deaths


Germany's curve = Sweden's without the corpses

And can we pleasepleasepleaseplease stop pretending that nothing ####### changed in Sweden. Holy #### that's insane crap.
   7164. Tony S Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:25 PM (#5962921)
If you think masks are uncomfortable, you're going to hate ventilators.
   7165. RJ in TO Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:29 PM (#5962922)
The virus will not "just start right back up again" after a lockdown if there are no (or few) active infections to spread the disease.
Or, if it does "just start right back up again", it will be with small enough numbers to manage things via like contact tracing and targeted lockdowns.

Pretty much all of Ontario outside of the GTA will be going to Stage 3 of the reopenings because we've been able to maintain low numbers of cases despite the loosening of "lockdown" restrictions, and the GTA has been in Stage 2 of the reopenings for a while now while keeping numbers low. When there have been notable outbreaks (primarily at farms, or at a couple nail salons in Kingston), the small number of background cases has meant they've been able to quickly track these outbreaks back to the source and check/quarantine people as needed to reduce the risk of further spread, without having to roll back to earlier stages of the lockdown.
   7166. base ball chick Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:40 PM (#5962924)
ah personally don't see why ah don't got the right to not wear a mask. ah kin ketch diszeeze if ah want to and spread it to as many folks as ah want to. they ketch it, it's their problem. sez so in da Bible somewheres, ah iz dead certin

who cares about the overflowing hospitals - they lyin anyhow to get more of mah taxpayer money - well, if ah paid taxes that is ah mean. and folks in the rural areas be dyin by the truckload (hahaha) because they got no hospital to go to and the big ones already full. kinda like we bring nyc here

we got a population of 330 million if you count all them Icky Furrinerz here in our land of Freedumdums

anything so long as ah kin go out to mah bars and drink and screw the night away and besides, it only kills Those Icky Negroes and Those Icky Messikinz and

um

wait

nevahmind
   7167. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:49 PM (#5962926)
A Pasadena (TX) bar openly defied Gov. Greg Abbott's order for all bars to remain closed due to skyrocketing COVID-19 cases by hosting a "Texas Bars Fight Back Rally" this weekend.
It was a shocking scene on Sunday at Chuters Dance Hall & Saloon in Pasadena; a dance floor full of patrons - many not wearing masks - danced to a live band as the alcohol flowed, breaking several COVID-19 state health protocols.


Goin' back to it's Sundown Town roots.
   7168. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:54 PM (#5962927)
A Pasadena (TX) bar openly defied Gov. Greg Abbott's order for all bars to remain closed due to skyrocketing COVID-19 cases by hosting a "Texas Bars Fight Back Rally" this weekend.
It was a shocking scene on Sunday at Chuters Dance Hall & Saloon in Pasadena; a dance floor full of patrons - many not wearing masks - danced to a live band as the alcohol flowed, breaking several COVID-19 state health protocols.

swat em.


(this is not a reference to the online culture of swatting; this is just a call to get those military cosplayers off their asses so they can crack some heads in a way that benefits society)
   7169. base ball chick Posted: July 14, 2020 at 09:00 PM (#5962929)
who do you think all those buttmunches refusing to wear masks and trying to spread disease ARE?
   7170. Greg K Posted: July 14, 2020 at 09:01 PM (#5962930)
This is a valid question. It seems that these societies have managed to keep R0 around 1 by behavior. These are known to be two of the most obedient rule-following societies in the world. Canada too follows this pattern, and perhaps the UK. But these places have to keep up their isolating behaviors forever.

I don't know, it seems to me that Canada and many places in Europe are in the process of relaxing restrictions as we speak. Maybe they are opening themselves up to inevitable outbreaks by doing so, but the pattern we see could just as easily be - nations that imposed strict lock downs as early as possible are able to successfully execute gradual re-openings, whereas nations and regions that didn't or couldn't are stuck going through phases of poorly co-ordinated cycles of lockdowns and re-openings.

To me, the lockdown explanation seems more credible across multiple nations and regions than the herd immunity theory, which seems designed to explain New York, but requires unique carve outs for every other place.
   7171. PreservedFish Posted: July 14, 2020 at 09:17 PM (#5962931)
Karl, it is not "hand-wavey" to acknowledge the existence of unknowns. It's wisdom.
   7172. puck Posted: July 14, 2020 at 09:33 PM (#5962933)
Are the California infections coming more from southern Cal than Northern Cal? Sorry for being lazy. I assume someone here knows of the top of their head.
   7173. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 09:34 PM (#5962934)
Fish, I'm not convinced that jurisdictions who couldn't or dind't close early enough are going through poorly co-ordinated cycles. FL and TX were not originally hit hard, but they rushed t reopen when people were saying that the data didn't justify it. NY and NJ couldn't act early enough, but are handling reopening much better.
   7174. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 09:35 PM (#5962935)
puck -- yes, especially LA County; Imperial is punching way above its weight.
   7175. baxter Posted: July 14, 2020 at 09:38 PM (#5962936)
7145 Re Japan

I wonder what the prevalence of obesity (a risk factor in type 2 diabetes; US at 36% obesity, just below Kuwait; Japan 4.3%; Germany 22.3% per ProCon.org) in the US has to do with infection/illness/fatality; also higher blood sugar; also a genetic factor, such prevalence of Type A blood in Japan (wrong on that one, apparently a balanced distribution of that blood type in Japan).

Consuming industrially manufactured food (a staple in the American diet), including starches and sugars, leads to diabetes.

   7176. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 09:50 PM (#5962937)
who do you think all those buttmunches refusing to wear masks and trying to spread disease ARE?
oh, i know.

but the most effective way to dismantle the tools of white supremacy is to turn them against themselves.
   7177. PreservedFish Posted: July 14, 2020 at 09:55 PM (#5962938)
7175: Very possible. But of course Japan is also the oldest of all countries, or nearly so. While diabetes (and general metabolic disfunction) is a definite risk factor for bad COVID outcomes, age remains by far the most significant risk factor. And if there's any research saying that metabolic conditions make one more meaningfully more likely to contract and spread the illness, I haven't seen it. I think better hygiene probably explains a lot. Ultimately I think many of the quirks of disease spread are unknowable, inexplicable.
   7178. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:02 PM (#5962939)
I don't know, it seems to me that Canada and many places in Europe are in the process of relaxing restrictions as we speak. Maybe they are opening themselves up to inevitable outbreaks by doing so, but the pattern we see could just as easily be - nations that imposed strict lock downs as early as possible are able to successfully execute gradual re-openings, whereas nations and regions that didn't or couldn't are stuck going through phases of poorly co-ordinated cycles of lockdowns and re-openings.

To me, the lockdown explanation seems more credible across multiple nations and regions than the herd immunity theory, which seems designed to explain New York, but requires unique carve outs for every other place.

this is the wrong lens to use when looking at reopenings.

america was supposed to go through a phased reopening. guidelines were set by the CDC and reopening was supposed to be based on the facts on the ground, so that each state could move at a safe speed. unfortunately for everyone, republican death cultists blew through all of those checkpoints and guidelines and stoppages and rollbacks, so they could send their date rapist children to spring break to binge drink, vomit and cough all over everyone.
   7179. Greg K Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:09 PM (#5962940)
That's sort of what I had in mind as an example of a poorly co-ordinated re-opening.
   7180. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:10 PM (#5962941)
The thing about Europe is all of the hard-hit countries in Europe also had vast regional differences. I mentioned Spain earlier. In Italy, Lombardy has about 1/6 the nation's population but nearly 40% of the country's reported COVID cases and 1/2 of the nation's reported COVID deaths. In France, Ile-de-France (which includes Paris) has 18% of the population but 38% of the COVID hospital deaths. In the UK, England has reported ~60% more COVID deaths per capita than Scotland and 2.4x as many as Northern Ireland. In Sweden's latest antibody testing, Stockholm had a 10% infection rate while the second-most populous county had a rate of 2.7%.

So this notion that they all got to ~25% infection rate and then the pandemic burned out is just ridiculous on its face. They all had vastly different infection rates between cities and regions, just like the US, and if this "theory" made any sense then we'd see the pandemic continuing to rage in all of these countries until, say, Rome caught up to Milan, or Marseilles caught up to Paris, or Vastra Gotaland caught up to Stockholm. I can't believe I've spent any time responding to it.
   7181. baxter Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:25 PM (#5962944)
7177 I thought I had seen something about that, here (I saw a reference on MSN, Yahoo, one of those sites):

Study links abnormally high blood sugar with higher risk of death in COVID-19 patients not previously diagnosed with diabetes

Date:
July 10, 2020
Source:
Diabetologia
Summary:
New research from Wuhan, China shows that, in patients with COVID-19 but without a previous diagnosis of diabetes, abnormally high blood sugar is associated with more than double the risk of death and also an increased risk of severe complications.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200710212247.htm
   7182. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:27 PM (#5962945)

Today was the first day in a week that newly reported deaths in the US were down vs. a week earlier. A decent chunk, but certainly not all, of that was Washington State somehow reporting negative deaths today (they didn't actually report negative deaths, but their cumulative total went down for some reason which I haven't looked at yet).
   7183. PreservedFish Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:27 PM (#5962946)
7181 - Yes, I saw the same report just this morning. COVID makes the blood sugar go haywire. There are reports that it basically causes diabetes, which is bananas. And acute hyperglycemia predicts bad outcomes. But advanced age is still a much bigger risk factor for severe complications and death.
   7184. Howie Menckel Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:28 PM (#5962947)
I see that a video clip from MSNBC yesterday has gone viral:

NBC News/MSNBC medical correspondent Dr. John Torres: "Would you let your kids go back to school?"

Dr. Patel: "I will. My kids are looking forward to it."

Dr. Raszka: "Yes, period."

Dr. Lighter: "Absolutely. As much as I can ... Without a hesitation, yes."

Dr. Creech: "I have no concerns about sending my child to school in the fall."

Dr. Maldonado: "I would let my kids go back to school."

MSNBC anchor Craig Melvin looked stunned as he noted, "They all said yes."

.................

(all but Creech are from Hillary-voting states. Lighter is from NY and Patel is from NJ)
   7185. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:36 PM (#5962949)
One problem with a pandemic is those autocratic countries that manipulate and conceal data.
The Trump administration has ordered hospitals to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all Covid-19 patient information to a central database in Washington beginning on Wednesday. The move has alarmed health experts who fear the data will be politicized or withheld from the public.
The new instructions were posted recently in a little-noticed document on the Department of Health and Human Services website. From now on, the department — not the C.D.C. — will collect daily reports about the patients that each hospital is treating, the number of available beds and ventilators, and other information vital to tracking the pandemic.
... the Health and Human Services database that will receive new information is not open to the public, which could affect the work of scores of researchers, modelers and health officials who rely on C.D.C. data to make projections and crucial decisions.


Link
   7186. Eric L Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:37 PM (#5962950)
Three weeks ago I posted that my little border county was blowing up. The response was crickets. Yes it’s Imperial County and we are only in the news when we are dying. I live 2 blocks from the main hospital. We see the emergency tents, we hear the choppers, we have overloaded mortuaries. This is drearily predictable. Diabetes, obesity, and hypertension are endemic here and we are on a main transportation corridor to Mexico. And it’s 110 every day. Yes, we are having fun.
   7187. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:48 PM (#5962951)
That's sort of what I had in mind as an example of a poorly co-ordinated re-opening.

yeah, but you're going through hoops and loops to ignore the root of the problem.


public health officials offered advice and recommendations for a safe reopening that would have prevented these new waves of infections, as nearly every other western democracy has been able to.

instead of being brought into the decision making process, the republican death cult decided to ignore and ridicule those experts for months. and now, shock of all shocks: we're setting new records for viral infections.

if your goal is to prevent infections and to save lives, you need to greenlight the police to put billy clubs, rubber bullets and tasers, to the heads of anyone who refuses to wear a mask in public.



also fwiw, cycles of lockdowns and reopenings is not a problem: it's the system working like it's supposed to. being reactive to facts on the ground and changing on the fly in ways that protect the populace is a good thing.
   7188. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 10:51 PM (#5962952)
7177 I thought I had seen something about that, here (I saw a reference on MSN, Yahoo, one of those sites):

Study links abnormally high blood sugar with higher risk of death in COVID-19 patients not previously diagnosed with diabetes

Date:
July 10, 2020
Source:
Diabetologia
Summary:
New research from Wuhan, China shows that, in patients with COVID-19 but without a previous diagnosis of diabetes, abnormally high blood sugar is associated with more than double the risk of death and also an increased risk of severe complications.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/07/200710212247.htm

for what's it's worth, since i first became symptomatic about 3 weeks ago, i've noticed that my respiratory system clogs up with substantially more severity when my blood sugar is high.
   7189. baxter Posted: July 14, 2020 at 11:28 PM (#5962959)
7188 Hope you make it through OK.
I had not noticed whether you had disclosed a positive result, have you?
I had symptoms in March, that I did not attribute to COVID until recently talking to someone who had nearly identical symptoms and a + test.
   7190. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2020 at 11:42 PM (#5962961)
7188 Hope you make it through OK.
i made peace with my own mortality quite a long time ago.
I had not noticed whether you had disclosed a positive result, have you?
nope.
   7191. baxter Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:20 AM (#5962964)
Good luck of course. For me, I would prefer to have an antibody test to verify my suspicions. However, given the tests' unreliability, I'll just keep going forward.
   7192. Karl from NY Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:23 AM (#5962965)
Forget it, I'm out of this thread. Nobody wants to hear anything against the lockdown-forever narrative. You guys go on and keep eating up all the media hysteria.
   7193. SoSH U at work Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:28 AM (#5962966)
Forget it, I'm out of this thread. Nobody wants to hear anything against the lockdown hysteria narrative. You guys enjoy living no life for the next two years. Enjoy never eating in a restaurant again. Enjoy being masked up for the rest of your damn lives.


No one enjoys this ####. But, from here, you seem to be guilty of taking positions based on what you want to be true, rather than what seems most likely given the evidence at hand.

I would like nothing more than for you to be correct that the hardest hit places are mostly in the clear. I just doubt that's true.

   7194. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:49 AM (#5962968)
Good luck of course. For me, I would prefer to have an antibody test to verify my suspicions. However, given the tests' unreliability, I'll just keep going forward.
for me, it's a combination of the unreliability of the testing, but also that even if a result comes back negative, it wouldn't change the fact that i'm going to stay in tight isolation until these symptoms go away.

going out is just not worth the risk of infecting someone i come in contact with.
   7195. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:59 AM (#5962972)
Forget it, I'm out of this thread. Nobody wants to hear anything against the lockdown-forever narrative. You guys go on and keep eating up all the media hysteria.
other countries have ended their lockdowns (to various degrees) successfully. as more countries get this under control, they are able to join them.


but you're right about this: noone wants to hear anything about your ####### death cult. how ####### hard is it to understand that first: you get the outbreak under control and then second: you phase out of lockdown. this shits not hard. just ####### do it ####### right.
   7196. BrianBrianson Posted: July 15, 2020 at 01:08 AM (#5962973)
You won't (and can't) lockdown forever. But they can help get things under control to do other stuff. And no where can go back to complete normal (indeed, it looks like Macron is going increase the mask-wearing mandate for us, because we've been a bit sloppy and things are starting to trend a bit badly for us), so if you're selling a "hey, look at Europe/Asia, maybe we can do nothing" narrative, yeah, that's borked.

It's true politicising doesn't help. I'm not surprised doctors in New York or New Jersey would send their kids to school, that's probably okay, especially if they're young. I've seen a lot of friends/family in Ontario panicking and such about school openings in Ontario in Septembre, , which seems to be entirely absorbing American partisan politics - Ontario looks to be in great shape for school re-opening in September. Texas or Arizona ... not so much.

But masks and soaping and standing apart and not doing the ####### bis is going to remain necessary for quite a while. Herd immunity may come ... by vaccine or otherwise .. but we're miles away.
   7197. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 01:21 AM (#5962974)
Ontario looks to be in great shape for school re-opening in September. Texas or Arizona ... not so much.


Read that right after "Ontario [...] seems to be entirely absorbing American partisan politics" and laughed since here in Texas that's a total Dummycrat comment :P
   7198. the virus could be killed by injecting 57i66135 Posted: July 15, 2020 at 01:45 AM (#5962975)
school openings in Ontario in Septembre
BURN THE WITCH !!!
   7199. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: July 15, 2020 at 01:51 AM (#5962977)
No one enjoys this ####. But, from here, you seem to be guilty of taking positions based on what you want to be true, rather than what seems most likely given the evidence at hand.


This is what I've been seeing from people who seem unwilling or unable to come to terms with what seems to be true: That we're in this for a while and there's no easy out; that life as we knew it, in many ways, will cease to exist, at least for a long while.

I get it. Some of these people have businesses that are going to be crushed, if not outright destroyed by the above. Sounds silly, but personal trainers, for instance, have already seen their income decimated by the lockdowns. Not nearly as many people signing up for coaching if gyms aren't open. So, almost as a means of coping, it's easier for them to lean into the notion that this is overblown and politics is what's guiding the call for things like re-opening rollbacks and mask mandates.

While I understand that having this mindset makes it easier to believe that things will return to "normal" sooner than if we're all in deep #### with this virus, it ultimately feels like kicking the can down the road and putting off the inevitable. We can demand things re-open and "hope for the best," but people for the most part aren't going to be rushing out to pack restaurants, movie theaters, and shopping centers if there's good evidence that the virus is still very much out there and affecting large swaths of people.
   7200. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:20 AM (#5962979)
Indeed, in a recent interview Tegnell was boasting about how little Swedes were out and about compared to other countries that relaxed things. Other than the UK, I don't know how true the claim is but he's certainly admitting that it's not status quo ante in Sweden.
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