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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 9761 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   7201. Hank Gillette Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:58 AM (#5962983)
right now it is "we will let you do some of the steps concurrently as long as you understand that you could have wasted time and money if we cancel you on step 5 even though you are on step 8 right now"



Bill Gates reputedly said that he was financing a half dozen vaccine factories, knowing that four or five of them would be useless (at least for the vaccine), but he felt that in this situation wasting several billion dollars was worth it.

I really don’t know if that even makes sense, unless they have specific candidates and the manufacturing is so different you could not adapt one to a different vaccine.
   7202. Hank Gillette Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:24 AM (#5962986)
Good luck of course. For me, I would prefer to have an antibody test to verify my suspicions. However, given the tests' unreliability, I'll just keep going forward.
Speaking of unreliability, the CDC reports that having had a cold could cause a positive result to an antibody test.
A positive test result shows you may have antibodies from an infection with the virus that causes COVID-19. However, there is a chance a positive result means that you have antibodies from an infection with a virus from the same family of viruses (called coronaviruses), such as the one that causes the common cold.
I hope to hell that someone is working on an accurate antibody test.
   7203. Greg K Posted: July 15, 2020 at 06:14 AM (#5962987)
yeah, but you're going through hoops and loops to ignore the root of the problem.


public health officials offered advice and recommendations for a safe reopening that would have prevented these new waves of infections, as nearly every other western democracy has been able to.

instead of being brought into the decision making process, the republican death cult decided to ignore and ridicule those experts for months. and now, shock of all shocks: we're setting new records for viral infections.

if your goal is to prevent infections and to save lives, you need to greenlight the police to put billy clubs, rubber bullets and tasers, to the heads of anyone who refuses to wear a mask in public.



also fwiw, cycles of lockdowns and reopenings is not a problem: it's the system working like it's supposed to. being reactive to facts on the ground and changing on the fly in ways that protect the populace is a good thing.

I'm confused, because I agree with a fair amount of this and thought that's what I was saying...

Oh well.
   7204. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 07:38 AM (#5962990)

Never mind. Not worth it.
   7205. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 15, 2020 at 07:45 AM (#5962991)
I really don’t know if that even makes sense, unless they have specific candidates and the manufacturing is so different you could not adapt one to a different vaccine.
The discovery phase can be the biggest wild card in terms of time and success.
   7206. Tony S Posted: July 15, 2020 at 08:51 AM (#5962996)
Please get better soon, stiggles.

One problem with a pandemic is those autocratic countries that manipulate and conceal data.


Can't wait for the "I don't like Trump but..." crowd here to spin this data, er, "streamlining" into a brilliant idea that's good and necessary and has no underlying agenda.

Echoing what others have said, we would ALL be ecstatic if this virus just went away today and we can all go back to life as we used to know it. It's very human and normal to latch on to any little study, any little bit of information that suggests a light at the end of the tunnel. But such hopes need to be reality-based, or we're just setting ourselves up for chronic disappointment, not to mention putting our lives -- and those of others -- in danger.

We've dealt with major life-altering crises before -- the world wars, the Great Depression. We got through them, but by confronting them, not by wishing them away. Part of the problem here is that the boomer generation has never had to deal with anything of this scope and seriousness, so sacrificing for the common good is an unfamiliar concept to them. And they're the ones in charge.

As for tshipman's observation about these dishonest "studies" that keep getting foisted off to deny the scope and seriousness of this virus, I unfortunately don't see that changing anytime soon. It won't change until this virus kills -- not just infects, but kills -- a few people in the power structure. That hasn't happened yet.

   7207. PreservedFish Posted: July 15, 2020 at 09:14 AM (#5963001)
Can't wait for the "I don't like Trump but..." crowd here to spin this data, er, "streamlining" into a brilliant idea that's good and necessary and has no underlying agenda.


Is that an actual crowd here?
   7208. Lassus Posted: July 15, 2020 at 09:25 AM (#5963003)
Yeah, sort of an odd assertion for the room.
   7209. SoSH U at work Posted: July 15, 2020 at 09:31 AM (#5963006)
Is that an actual crowd here?


Surely you've heard the old saying, "Two's company, RMc's a crowd."

   7210. PreservedFish Posted: July 15, 2020 at 09:52 AM (#5963009)
RMc certainly doesn't defend Trump as brilliant. Neither does Clapper, who rarely even mentions Trump, an unavoidable result of his strict policy of never addressing anything bad that any Republican ever did ever.
   7211. SoSH U at work Posted: July 15, 2020 at 09:57 AM (#5963011)
RMc certainly doesn't defend Trump as brilliant.


No, but I don't know of any other poster who routinely fits in that "I don't like Trump but" space.
   7212. Tony S Posted: July 15, 2020 at 09:58 AM (#5963013)
There are elements here (more than one) who claim to dislike Trump, but somehow defend most everything he does and confine their criticism to those who oppose him. You'll see this happen with the new bypass-the-CDC edict.
   7213. . Posted: July 15, 2020 at 09:58 AM (#5963014)
We must continue to note that people's opinion of all of this is materially impacted by the fact that we have the internet. People wouldn't think the things they think without the internet, people wouldn't say the things they say without the internet. It's a malign force of the highest order; whatever gems or insights that might be added are entirely overwhelmed by the cesspool dreck.

Even that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world -- mass entertainment isn't always pretty, nor has mass politics ever been an academic seminar -- but it's now affecting great American institutions like the New York Times, which was correctly called out as the illiberal organ it's become in the resignation letter of one of its preeminent writers, a completely normal and sane and intelligent liberal who is somehow seen as something else because and only because of ... yes, the internet. I've been a subscriber to the paper virtually non-stop since the mid-1980s and while I certainly didn't agree with everything it printed, it was an outstanding piece of work and and outstanding institution. It's nothing of the sort anymore, which I shared with them orally in my rational, well-spoken and thoughtful, non-internet way for 10 minutes or so yesterday when I cancelled my subscription. I did express to them the hope that they would get back to what they used to be, but I can't say that I'm optimistic. It's just an extremely unfortunate development.

As to the internet, the best thing to do at this point for all of us is to make like Number Six and resign. There are better ways.
   7214. BrianBrianson Posted: July 15, 2020 at 10:10 AM (#5963016)
We've dealt with major life-altering crises before -- the world wars, the Great Depression.


Who's this "we", Grandpa?
   7215. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 10:31 AM (#5963018)
Some of these people have businesses that are going to be crushed, if not outright destroyed by the above.

Musicians and other entertainers.

I'm a semi-professional level musician, but have many friends who play in regional orchestras (and one who is a principal in a major orchestra) and those folks are just ###### after spending basically their entire lives honing their craft. Many of these groups operated on razor-thin margins before COVID, but now even if the performances were to come back, how long with the groups be able to hang on with venues at 25% or 50% capacity? Even if they were allowed to fill a venue, would they be able to given the demographics of orchestra audiences?

As for me, I've had a TV taping and a couple of high-profile gigs "postponed," first from March to July and now to September. Actually I'll be surprised if they happen this year, if ever. The stars of the show are in their late 70's and announced last year that this year would be their last year of touring. Although the show must go on and I'm sure they wouldn't want to go out like this, how long would they be able to hold on until things clear up?
   7216. Lassus Posted: July 15, 2020 at 10:36 AM (#5963020)
Knowledge is apparently not power.
   7217. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 15, 2020 at 11:00 AM (#5963022)
Knowledge is apparently not power.


Not for the country that once had a Know Nothing Party.
   7218. Lassus Posted: July 15, 2020 at 11:01 AM (#5963024)
I'm a semi-pro classical singer and yes, everything is ###### for actual classical musicians. I've at least only lost supplemental income, but real pros? It's very very bad.
   7219. PreservedFish Posted: July 15, 2020 at 11:04 AM (#5963025)
If you want to talk about declining standards at the NY Times, can we discuss the difficulty of the crossword? A Saturday puzzle used to be an almost insurmountable challenge, but now I finish them 50% of the time. Although I suppose maybe I've gotten better at it, but that seems hardly likely, what with the way I've let my brain atrophy on BTF for hours every day.
   7220. DCA Posted: July 15, 2020 at 11:09 AM (#5963028)
the New York Times, which was correctly called out as the illiberal organ it's become in the resignation letter of one of its preeminent writers

Barf. Bari Weiss may be correct in her assessment of the inside of the Grey Lady (I've not been following the soap opera of staff politics) but she's hardly preeminent. Everything that I've read from her is familiar mediocrity that fancies itself well-thought. I don't imagine that she'll be missed.
   7221. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 11:11 AM (#5963030)
in the resignation letter of one of its preeminent writers, a completely normal and sane and intelligent liberal who is somehow seen as something else because and only because of ... yes, the internet.


Are we talking about the columnist who took a four-month trip to Australia and returned with the conclusion that there is no racism in Australia?
   7222. Lassus Posted: July 15, 2020 at 11:19 AM (#5963031)
There are better ways.

What does this actually mean?
   7223. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 15, 2020 at 11:20 AM (#5963032)
Excess deaths so far have shown a lower amount for weeks ending 6/20, 6/27, and 7/4. Potentially some of that is July 4 reporting. Regardless, as best we can tell so far, the excess deaths did reduced over time in the month of June, and probably the last week of June and first week of July were in the 2000-4000 range nationwide. We won't have a very good idea for at least 3-4 weeks.


Date of report    week ending    (weeks back)   total counted deaths (USA)

5/28              5/23            1              14,955 (after memorial day, so reporting may be extra laggy)
6/03              5/30            1              15,332
6/10              6/06            1              14,037
6/17              6/13            1              16,558
6/24              6/20            1              15,221
7/01              6/27            1              16,520
7/08              7/04            1              13,314 (possible post-July 4 report effect)
7/15              7/11            1              15,492

6/03              5/23            2              35,991
6/10              5/30            2              35,744
6/17              6/06            2              38,045
6/24              6/13            2              35,666
7/01              6/20            2              36,035
7/08              6/27            2              31,694 (possible post-July 4 report effect)
7/15              7/04            2              31,214 (still low, maybe 7/4 was the low point as for reported deaths)

6/10              5/23            3              48,488
6/17              5/30            3              48,712
6/24              6/06            3              47,521
7/01              6/13            3              47,305
7/08              6/20            3              44,367 (same)
7/15              6/27            3              42,450 (same)

6/17              5/23            4              53,843
6/24              5/30            4              52,225
7/01              6/06            4              51,959
7/08              6/13            4              50.554
7/15              6/20            4              49.536

6/24              5/23            5              55,755
7/01              5/30            5              54,302
7/08              6/06            5              53,397
7/15              6/13            5              52.508

7/01              5/23            6              57,238
7/08              5/30            6              55,143
7/15              6/06            6              54,904

7/08              5/23            7              58,141
7/15              5/30            7              56,571

7/15              5/23            8              59,400

   7224. Zonk paid more than $750 in taxes last paycheck Posted: July 15, 2020 at 11:24 AM (#5963034)

Are we talking about the columnist who took a four-month trip to Australia and returned with the conclusion that there is no racism in Australia?


I thought it was the one who conducted a twitter jihad on a NYT freelancer who used the "F word" on twitter a few years ago.

Possible they're the same person, though - they look alike.
   7225. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 15, 2020 at 11:39 AM (#5963037)
Most Canadians support shutdown if 2nd wave of coronavirus.

...
The survey, conducted by Ipsos for exclusively Global News between July 8 and July 10, found 77 per cent of Canadians anticipate there will be a second wave of the novel coronavirus, despite efforts to stem its spread.

...
What's more, 83 per cent of Canadians said they would support shuttering most non-essential businesses if the country does experience a second wave.

...
Canadians also appear to be playing it safe when it comes to face masks amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the survey, 71 per cent of respondents said they wear a face mask when they enter an indoor public space such as a grocery store or bank.
Seventy-nine per cent of Canadians said they would be supportive if their municipality made it mandatory to wear face masks.
Eighty-two per cent said they feel fewer people would contract the virus if everybody wore a mask.



   7226. puck Posted: July 15, 2020 at 11:41 AM (#5963038)
Musicians and other entertainers.

Classical is going to be very rough. One of the last public things I attended before Rudy Gobert Day was a classical concert the Monday that week. I remember looking around even then wondering if attending was smart. It was packed, and of course classical audiences skew very old.

I noticed the Met opera has already cancelled up through 12/20/2020. I'm in CO; the CO Symphony has cancelled through November. We go to a few regional groups, they've not even announced any schedule for next season with everything being up in the air.
   7227. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:09 PM (#5963045)

The actual study of the first round of NY State antibody testing results was just published the other day. Based on the specificity and sensitivity of the tests used, they estimate that the actual infection rates were a bit higher than the measured rates (14.0% vs. 12.5% statewide, 22.7% vs. 20.2% in NYC).

They estimate that this is the infection rate through March 29, as

With a study midpoint of April 23, and literature estimates of mean 4 days from infection to the symptom onset and mean 21 days from the onset to IgG detection, results represent cumulative incidence through approximately March 29


They calculate an implied IFR of 0.6% based on reported deaths as of April 17 (a 19-day lag time between infection and death). Obviously, what you assume for the lag (both between infection and antibody detection and infection to death) has a huge effect on the implied IFR. Given that we now know that subsequent rounds of antibody testing did not show much increase in the positive rate (12.5% from the testing on April 23, 12.3% on May 1, 13.4% on June 13), but confirmed deaths in NYS have nearly doubled since April 17, I think it's likely that the vast majority of those who died were already infected by the time of the first antibody study. So the IFR is probably close to double that 0.6% figure based on confirmed deaths (and higher if you include probable or excess deaths).
   7228. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:16 PM (#5963048)
stiggles, sorry about your illness. good luck beating it.

Eric L, sorry to see your county ignored, like so many.

our local school district voted last night to begin the year 100% online. we may return to class if numbers get better, but Murica.

my dad was moved to the ICU and intubated this morning.

this sucks.

   7229. SoSH U at work Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:19 PM (#5963050)
Sorry to hear that BLB. Praying for his recovery.

   7230. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:35 PM (#5963055)
Barry, so sorry to hear that, best wishes for your dad and your family.


---
The "I don't like Trump but ..." crowd is definite thing; most intone that, some are drive-by concern-trolls.

   7231. Howie Menckel Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:37 PM (#5963057)
Philip Rucker
@PhilipRucker
·
8m
Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt -- who rarely wears masks and resisted a statewide mask mandate, has aggressively pushed to reopen his state, and attended Trump's Tulsa rally -- announces he has tested positive for COVID-19
   7232. PreservedFish Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:39 PM (#5963059)
I say "I don't like Trump, but..." on occasion, when I feel it to be appropriate. I don't think that makes me part of a crowd.
   7233. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:43 PM (#5963061)
Fish, I don't think anyone had you in mind.
   7234. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:43 PM (#5963062)

Nate Silver on Twitter:

A lot of countries that had once seemed to have COVID under control are now having issues. Israel is the one where things have spun very out of control. Others here may be more containable.


He shows charts of Israel, Croatia, Australia and Japan, although other than Israel the case counts in the others are still pretty low relative to overall population size.
   7235. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:48 PM (#5963063)
I'd be interested to know where the Croatian problem is located. Tourists affecting Istria and Dalmatia, or in the less-touristed areas?
   7236. PreservedFish Posted: July 15, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5963064)
And Israel's bump has unfortunately been linked to schools. The report I saw was that students did not at all adhere to the new safety protocols, which is unsurprising. But bad news for anyone that was hoping that kids did not really get/spread the virus.
   7237. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 01:05 PM (#5963068)

As to the internet, the best thing to do at this point for all of us is to make like Number Six and resign. There are better ways.


Well sorry to see you go then.
   7238. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 01:09 PM (#5963071)
Best wishes to Barry and stiggles, and anyone else sick and/or with sick loved ones.
   7239. BrianBrianson Posted: July 15, 2020 at 01:24 PM (#5963073)
I say "I don't like Trump, but..." on occasion, when I feel it to be appropriate. I don't think that makes me part of a crowd.


Part of it is probably that we mostly discuss things where we disagree or have at least different perspectives, not much to say when we all agree.

I don't like Trump per se, but stopped clocks, blind squirrels ...
   7240. Srul Itza Posted: July 15, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5963075)
If you want to talk about declining standards at the NY Times, can we discuss the difficulty of the crossword? A Saturday puzzle used to be an almost insurmountable challenge


That is an exaggeration. I have done the NY Times crossword 6 days a week for around 40 years, and I have bailed on maybe 3 Saturday puzzles in that time. I started doing them in high school, and it became regular for me in late 1980 when I started my first job. Fortunately, the local paper carries the NY Times puzzle.

Some weeks are harder than others, but the more you do them, the more you get locked in.
   7241. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:20 PM (#5963087)

And Israel's bump has unfortunately been linked to schools. The report I saw was that students did not at all adhere to the new safety protocols, which is unsurprising. But bad news for anyone that was hoping that kids did not really get/spread the virus.


I'm not sure if that's certain yet, although there seems to be some strong indications in that direction.

According to the WSJ:

Epidemiological surveys by Israel’s health ministry showed that after Israel opened its entire school system without restrictions on May 17, a spike in infections occurred among the country’s youth that later spread to the general population. Government figures also showed that in the month of June schools were the second-highest known place of infection outside people’s own communities.

In early May, when infections ebbed, the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reopened much of the Israeli economy and society, including the schools, in a push to revive business activity and get Israelis back to work. After a phased return to the classroom, the government imposed few restrictions on schools.

Israel’s top public health official, Siegal Sadetzki. resigned last week in protest of the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, including the school re-openings.

“Much of the source of the second wave stems from the opening of the education system in a way that was not adapted to corona and mass-gatherings,” she said in a Facebook post explaining her resignation.

While some argue the schools were a major contributor to the overall surge, others say it is difficult to separate them from the broader reopening.

Israeli authorities allowed for the quick resumption of large gatherings like weddings and prayer services. There was little enforcement of rules requiring masks in public.


Seems like a lot of risks were being taken across the board.
   7242. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:30 PM (#5963088)
I want to defend Karl from NY here for just a little bit, because I thought some of the comments were a bit unfair.

I dont see what is logically wrong with the proposition that the citizens of a given city/region are going to fall into a continuum based on how many social interactions they are likely to have. Say you have:

shut ins >>> shy people >>> people who go to work but dont interact much >>>>>>>> Police, bus drivers etc.

THere's no reason to think these different groups are NOT going to have different numbers to get to herd immunity. Sadly, no one really seems to have addressed this in any sort of intellectually honest way. About the closest was PF who claimed that this logic made no sense. I think it does and you can tell me why Im wrong. Here's quote from PF


"It's just logic" doesn't really cut it for me, because the logic relies on something that I've never even considered and have absolutely no way of evaluating, the idea that a minority of people conduct the majority of interactions. It also contradicts our understanding of disease spread, that is, that prolonged indoor encounters are the primary vector, which makes it less likely that bus drivers and baristas are responsible for the spread of the epidemic in NYC


First of all what is logically wrong with the idea that a minority of people conduct the majority of interactions? Isnt that obvious? There are cab drivers and bus drivers and subway riders adn all sorts of people who are going to have more social interactions than other types of people. Right? Why would you have no way to evaluate that? This sounds like a Bill James article where he doesnt have good defensive numbers so he just throws up his hands and rates all 3b by offense alone or some such.


It also contradicts our understanding of disease spread, that is, that prolonged indoor encounters are the primary vector, which makes it less likely that bus drivers and baristas are responsible for the spread of the epidemic in NYC


Wtf does this mean? Are not bus drivers and baristas considered "indoors?" I thought baristas work at coffee bars and most of those are indoors. Bus drivers might be thought to be out of doors, but they are working in an enclosed vehicle right? Does that not put them is a similar position to people who work in enclosed buildings.

Really there's nothing he's said about a social continuum that would contradict how disease spreads.

What was Karl's "crime" ? LIke a lot of people with new ideas, he went way to far with and start to extend the analysis to all sorts of things that werent indicated: like saying NY should re open right now, or that Europe had already achieved herd immunity, or that nothing more needs to be done we can re open now, or that lock downs dont work.

Yeah he made a number of silly claims taking it all too far. So what the response of the rest of the primates:

You all jumped on his ass and pointed out the obvious mistakes without address the core contention.

Dave pointed out that 25% immunity has not been achieved in SPain, Italy etc. So OK that part of what Karl is saying probly wrong.

KIko said:


But the number of "high-interaction people" and the number of potential spreader events aren't static.


what does this have to do with anything? So its not static? SO fukcin what? You adjust the model to account for that I guess?

another sort of half baked response:


edit: if you are saying that it's more difficult for the virus to spread in an environment where more people are immune, well that's basically a tautology.


He's not saying that. He's saying there's a continuum of society that is based on how many interactions they have. And herd immunity would vary for each part of that continuum. That doesnt seem logically incorrect. You seem to have just made up some straw man here.



Oh stop it, this is far too pat. Facile. Why did Germany have so much less death than Belgium?


Yes you're right PF. IT is too facile. And Karl goes too far in making sweep claims about all this.


It's just mind boggling that there continue to be new and creative ways to soft pedal the risks of this virus.


This is echoed by shipman, greenback, AB and probably Kiko too. I dont feel its fair to accuse him of being a denier or whatever we call the Trump loonies/death cult people.

He made the cardinal sin of anyone who comes out with a new and controversial theory: he didnt make sure that every argument that he offered was air tight. It wasnt so you all jumped on the bad parts without addressing the good parts.

Can you address the basic core idea, now?


   7243. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:34 PM (#5963090)
Please get better soon, stiggles.
not dead yet.
Part of it is probably that we mostly discuss things where we disagree or have at least different perspectives, not much to say when we all agree.

I don't like Trump per se, but stopped clocks, blind squirrels ...
no, what people are calling out is not the "blind squirrel/found nut" situation; it's a pattern that some posters have, of giving the benefit of the doubt to trump to explain why...[name a thing], despite no reasonable explanation existing, other than corruption, idiocy, perversion, moral hazard, incompetence, racism, sexism, homophobia, transphobia, white supremacy, christian supremacy, and more.


my dad ranted for years about "solyndra", and how that was some underhanded payoff to obama's political cronies...and yet i never hear a peep from him about trump funneling tens of millions of public dollars (it may even be in the 9 digit range at this point) into his own pockets by means of charging federal agencies for the use of his properties while he stays there (more than any other president in history, btw...no peeps about that, either, though he can still go off from time to time about obama taking michele to see hamilton in NYC with HIS federal tax dollars).
   7244. BrianBrianson Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:40 PM (#5963092)
Bus drivers might be thought to be out of doors, but they are working in an enclosed vehicle right?


If you're on the ball, no. When we got out of quarantine, the buses were retrofitted so drivers were entirely isolated from the rest of the bus, and had open windows.
   7245. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:43 PM (#5963093)
Barf. Bari Weiss may be correct in her assessment of the inside of the Grey Lady (I've not been following the soap opera of staff politics) but she's hardly preeminent. Everything that I've read from her is familiar mediocrity that fancies itself well-thought. I don't imagine that she'll be missed.

the new york times has an institutionalist bias that goes beyond any of its other inclinations, real or perceived.

the idea that it's some bastion of liberalism needs to get taken out back and laid to rest alongside old yeller.
   7246. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:45 PM (#5963094)
“Much of the source of the second wave stems from the opening of the education system in a way that was not adapted to corona and mass-gatherings,” she said in a Facebook post explaining her resignation.

While some argue the schools were a major contributor to the overall surge, others say it is difficult to separate them from the broader reopening.


Named some, unnamed others?; not exactly quality journalism.


Are not bus drivers and baristas considered "indoors?"


Yes, but they do not have prolonged interaction with customers, and the passage you cite emphasizes the prolonged nature of the interaction as an important factor, which is the state of play now.

The core idea of the post was that you have to get a certain level of infection and then all settles. The problems are (1) it has settled in other countries that didn't attain that desired level, (2) it is not settling in UH, which has a higher infection rate than Sweden. and (3) that the idea of Sweden without Restrictions, is FALSE FALSE FALSE.
   7247. tshipman Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:55 PM (#5963099)
He made the cardinal sin of anyone who comes out with a new and controversial theory: he didnt make sure that every argument that he offered was air tight. It wasnt so you all jumped on the bad parts without addressing the good parts.

Can you address the basic core idea, now?


Can we stop with pretending that history started yesterday? Karl has made a series of posts and half-baked theories jumping to whatever shiny object he gloms on to. It has no good faith basis.

The idea itself doesn't fit the data. Lockdowns, and adherence to lockdowns and other mitigation measures, do a much better job of explaining what is going on. Japan, Germany, South Korea, these are all direct contradictions of the theory.
   7248. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5963100)


The core idea of the post was that you have to get a certain level of infection and then all settles.


That cant be the core idea of Karl's post because that's Herd Immunity idea. That's already out there.
   7249. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5963101)
trigger warning: politics in the raw
Dave Weigel @daveweigel
Turnout in recent Texas Democratic runoffs:

2012: 236,305
2014: 200,992
2018: 432,180
2020: 955,735

Doesn’t mean Cornyn is vulnerable, but the days of TX Dems just pre-conceding every statewide race are probably over.
   7250. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:58 PM (#5963102)

Can you address the basic core idea, now?


I did in 7180, which you didn't address. Karl's post is not supported by the observed facts. He could have found that out with 5 minutes of Googling. He simply doesn't seem to have put much thought into it, so why should we?


what does this have to do with anything? So its not static? SO fukcin what? You adjust the model to account for that I guess?


I don't want to speak for Kiko, but I think his point is that lockdowns affect the number of people who are interacting.

I think the notion that modeling the right herd immunity level is more complicated than simply 1-1/R0 is correct. I think the idea that herd immunity is achieved at 25% is preposterous.
   7251. Greg Pope Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:59 PM (#5963103)
the new york times has an institutionalist bias that goes beyond any of its other inclinations, real or perceived.

the idea that it's some bastion of liberalism needs to get taken out back and laid to rest alongside old yeller.


I don't know enough about the New York Times, but Trump has succeeded in getting CNN branded as completely left wing, despite plenty of analysis showing that they're fairly middle of the road.
   7252. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:59 PM (#5963104)
trigger warning: republican death cult
Rex Chapman @RexChapman
Mike Pence: "We don't want CDC guidance to be a reason why people don't reopen their schools."

Rolling on the floor laughingRolling on the floor laughingRolling on the floor laughingExploding headExploding headExploding headFace with symbols over mouthFace with symbols over mouth
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1283153317095505920
   7253. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:07 PM (#5963105)
interesting interactive map to show covid risk in various counties in the US:

https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/map-shows-county-by-county-risk-of-encountering-covid-19-at-an-event/287-eb7f93e1-c68c-4007-aee6-89fd44ae7796

I think they were debating TX and NM a few posts upthread in re: NY quarantine for out of state travelers entering the state. NM does have some hot spots and west Tex also has some serious hot spots as well.
   7254. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:09 PM (#5963107)
7242 - And let's remember the source, too, OK? Some random guy on Reddit.
   7255. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:12 PM (#5963109)
I think the idea that herd immunity is achieved at 25% is preposterous.


HE's not saying that is he? I guess baristas and people who visit them would need to be at 75% or so. Whereas various others would be somewhat lower.
   7256. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:13 PM (#5963111)
HE's not saying that is he? I guess baristas and people who visit them would need to be at 75% or so. Whereas various others would be somewhat lower.


But you're pretending that quick interactions like that are spreader events. they're not.
   7257. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:17 PM (#5963112)
And let's remember the source, too, OK? Some random guy on Reddit.


BUt that's not fair intellectually. It shouldnt matter where the idea comes from. It should be addressed logically instead of just shouted down.
   7258. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:19 PM (#5963113)
A barista is indoors all day with various people coming in. Several carriers could come in, shed virus, that the baristas eventually inhale. The viral load could be compiled through many encounters.
   7259. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5963114)
I think the idea that herd immunity is achieved at 25% is preposterous.

HE's not saying that is he?

He said pretty much exactly that:

This is what happened in New York. NY's numbers went and stayed down not because New Yorkers are good at lockdowns and masking, it went down because all the high-interaction people already had it. That curve of washing out after roughly 25% antibody prevalence has played out everywhere - Italy, Spain, France, London, NY, NJ. Brazil is now nearing that.

   7260. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:21 PM (#5963115)


I did in 7180, which you didn't address.


I thought I did, but I'll try again. I totally agree w/ you that what happened in Europe does not in any way support the idea. I thought i said this much but maybe not.

Another thing you said there was that we would expect the outbreak to rage until Rome to caught up to Milan and Marseille caught up to Paris. But my understanding is that these places have gone on lockdown and taken other safeguards, so there is really no way to test whatever Karl's theory is right? Cause that theory can only be tested in the raw, and not many places, other than maybe Miami or Tex are gonna let this virus go through without attempting to lockdown.

OR am I missing something? LIke did they not do lockdown in Rome or Marseille?
   7261. RJ in TO Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:21 PM (#5963116)
BUt that's not fair intellectually. It shouldnt matter where the idea comes from. It should be addressed logically instead of just shouted down.
He is attributing the idea to a guy on Reddit, when he can't provide the link, and admits he's also rephrasing it anyway because he felt the original Reddit post expressed it unclearly. There is nothing there to address - we don't have the original post, and we don't know how Karl's reinterpretation may have changed the intended meaning.
   7262. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5963117)
It is actually. Some random guy on Reddit has a theory, shows no work, nothing that Karl is even willing to quote.
And Karl is Karl, and his sources of information on anything any time he goes on a rant is nothing but reddit and facebook.
Look, I get the guy has some ... issues ... and that motivates his posts, but it doesn't mean that there's any reason to take seriously a "theory" all the particulars of which are wrong and that adds up to, "Hey, whatabout ...?"

Where's the part of the theory that's accurate or believable?
   7263. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5963118)

But you're pretending that quick interactions like that are spreader events. they're not.



I didnt think those were necessarily quick. I was thinking more like the guy at Starbucks is working in an enclosed room for an 8 hour shift with lots of people in the room. But I guess starbucks is doing only carryout now in most places. So that's not really a good example then I guess.
   7264. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:25 PM (#5963119)
But my understanding is that these places have gone on lockdown and taken other safeguards, so there is really no way to test whatever Karl's theory is right


Do you want to address the fact that Sweden wasn't laissez-faire, just less restricted than countries that had better results with fewer deaths?

Also, while we're at it, what good is building this immunity if it's temporary?
   7265. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:26 PM (#5963120)
I didnt think those were necessarily quick. I was thinking more like the guy at Starbucks is working in an enclosed room for an 8 hour shift with lots of people in the room. But I guess starbucks is doing only carryout now in most places. So that's not really a good example then I guess.


Bingo! Even so, Barista and coffee-drinker aren't in close proximity during the time coffee-drinker is sitting @ table with his iPhone.
   7266. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:27 PM (#5963122)

A barista is indoors all day with various people coming in. Several carriers could come in, shed virus, that the baristas eventually inhale. The viral load could be compiled through many encounters.


IM confused, because the above is what I was assuming initially. Bloomburg denies that baristas are exposed in a significant way because the interaction is short time. Is he denying it because baristas are only doing carry out these days, or because he doesnt account for them being in a room all day?
   7267. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:27 PM (#5963123)
Fun Fact: UK poised to pass Andorra in COVID death rate by month's end.
   7268. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5963124)

Where's the part of the theory that's accurate or believable?


I thought it was very clear what I said originally. There is a continuum of people in any given region/city who have various levels of social interaction. like:

shut ins>> shy people >>>people who taxi to work/low interactions >>>>>>>etc etc >>>>>>>>>> people who go to parties

Can we forget who posted the idea, forget what history they have, forget what the politics are, and just focus on that core idea. Does it have any merit? I think the repercussion is that you'd need to get to X% for that population on the right hand of the spectrum. LIke 75% or 80% but that number wouldnt be the same for the rest.

Right? Because as soon as that right hand group hits 75% the numbers should decline. That would be before the other groups get to 75% should there should be some sort of "effective" herd immunity reached before you get to the exact R0 - 1/R0 pt. Yes or no?

I quite agree 25% doesnt seem to be the number, and Europe doesnt seem to fit, and NY doenst seem to fit. I agree with everything else that's been said EXCEPT for that one core idea.
   7269. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5963125)
IM confused, because the above is what I was assuming initially. Bloomburg denies that baristas are exposed in a significant way because the interaction is short time. Is he denying it because baristas are only doing carry out these days, or because he doesnt account for them being in a room all day?


Spread is based on longer-term exposure to an infected person, or to someone who literally spits out his order. That's the problem. I don't Starbucks because I've got my own superautomatic, but I do wonder what the setup is at Starbucks now. Most stores I shop at have plexiglass spit-guards.

Now, you put an infected barista who yells over machines to customers from 2-3 feet, you have a spreader. You have someone who is masked or soft spoken having a brief interaction and taking a credit card, that's not high risk ... unless, I suppose, a large number of customers are infected and that's statistically VERY unlikely.
   7270. BrianBrianson Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5963126)
Where's the part of the theory that's accurate or believable?


In the very literal sense, my great aunt Violet, who was just out of chemo and has thus chosen not to get within ~30 feet of another human since March, nor be in the same building as one, is irrelevant for the numerator of the spread of COVID, but gets included in the denominator. (My grandmother leaves groceries on her porch, so she could nominally contract it I guess, but can't really spread it at all).

Like, Karl is at least largely wrong. But it's technically correct that not all humans are equal in their likelihood of contracting and spreading the virus.
   7271. RJ in TO Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:35 PM (#5963128)
Ontario reported 111 new cases yesterday, with no deaths. Stage 3 reopening of the province outside the GTA is still on schedule for Friday.

Canada as a whole reported 222 new cases, although I'll admit I'm unclear as to whether or not those numbers include Quebec, as I know they had at least temporarily shifted away from daily reporting, but I'm fairly sure that got quickly shouted down. The country as a whole reported 3 new deaths.
   7272. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:36 PM (#5963129)

HE's not saying that is he?

He said pretty much exactly that:


Im not agreeing with what he said there, that NY achieved somes sort of herd immunity at 25%. For various reasons I dont agree.
   7273. deleuze68 Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:37 PM (#5963130)
Regarding schools re-opening I just don't understand how they could possibly function in any reasonable manner, even in low spread communities.

Assuming: 1) a child or teacher who displays covid symptoms should immediately get tested and isolate at home while awaiting results; 2) there is no way to distinguish between common cold symptoms and covid symptoms; 3) testing infrastructure remains severely under developed resulting in testing result lags of several days; and 4) children are going to continue passing around their germs in their usual manner
- taking into consideration all of this who is going to be left in the classroom after a couple of weeks of school? Any sniffles and you're out for at least a few days. How often do teachers catch a cold during the school year.- how many days lost will this equate to just by virtue of waiting around for test results? I know my niece would have missed about a quarter of the school year just by displaying symptoms pretty much once a month. Or are we just going to risk it and assume a cold is just a cold until more serious symptoms develop or there is an obvious outbreak?
   7274. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:38 PM (#5963131)
(1) Aside from "people who party" the "spreaders" like hypothetical baristas and bus drivers are people who keep getting replaced by others, so you'rre racking up the deaths.

(2) The superspreaders spread to lots of people -- by definition -- ho have large scale cumulative effects, racking up the deaths. How many layers down do you suppose you have to go? And is an interaction of 3-5 minutes with a superspreader really more dangeroud than working in a crowded office of 20-percenters for eight hours?

I think not.
   7275. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:39 PM (#5963132)

Bingo! Even so, Barista and coffee-drinker aren't in close proximity during the time coffee-drinker is sitting @ table with his iPhone.


OK Im not sure Baristas are relevant to the issue I wanted to address but just to be tie this up.

My understanding is that the aerosol form of this can travel up to 30 feet and linger for hours. I guess ventilation then plays a huge role in this. If the barista is in the same room it could be dangerous, depending on the ventilation in the room. NO?
   7276. bunyon Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:40 PM (#5963134)
I don’t think herd immunity will be 25%. But there are reasons to believe it’s not as high as we’ve thought. It’s complicated. There is still a lot we just don’t know about the virus. Modeling averages is false. Whether that is good news or bad is hard to say. This was an interesting read.

Link
   7277. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:40 PM (#5963135)
Or are we just going to risk it and assume a cold is just a cold until more serious symptoms develop or there is an obvious outbreak?


As stiggles would say, trigger warning: republican death cult
   7278. RJ in TO Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:40 PM (#5963136)
I quite agree 25% doesnt seem to be the number, and Europe doesnt seem to fit, and NY doenst seem to fit. I agree with everything else that's been said EXCEPT for that one core idea.
So apart from the data not actually matching, it's plausible? If you agree the 25% doesn't make sense, and New York doesn't make sense, and Europe doesn't make sense, then what makes sense? It's just arguing for herd immunity, which people have generally agreed is a thing, while deliberately underestimating the impacts necessary to achieve herd immunity.
   7279. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:42 PM (#5963137)
And is an interaction of 3-5 minutes with a superspreader really more dangeroud than working in a crowded office of 20-percenters for eight hours?


IM sorry, can you explain yourself a bit more clearly? Is your issue here with the labels I gave to the proposed continuum chart I made? LIke you wish to put people workign in a crowded office on the right hand side with those who party?

Is that what you're trying to convey?
   7280. tshipman Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:42 PM (#5963138)
Sure if we ignore every actual claim Karl made, his argument totally makes sense.
   7281. SoSH U at work Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5963140)
Canada as a whole reported 222 new cases, although I'll admit I'm unclear as to whether or not those numbers include Quebec,


Not that again.
   7282. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:51 PM (#5963141)

IM sorry, can you explain yourself a bit more clearly? Is your issue here with the labels I gave to the proposed continuum chart I made? LIke you wish to put people workign in a crowded office on the right hand side with those who party?


I'm actually not buying into the whole continuum idea.* But I am saying that the evidence indicates that longer contact is an important factor and thus going into home depot for 30 mins is much less risky than getting your hair cut for 30 mins.

* Here's my deepest problem with your rescue of this "theory." Logical doesn't matter. Factual does. It's like when the Trumpers and concern trolls show up warning that we'll have lots of suicides from a lockdown-induced downturn. You show them that it hasn't happened int the past and it isn't happening now. they'll fins some article that consists of one guy conflating suicides and attempts and offering no statistics and in response they'll say, "it's logical." Or they'll tell you that the lockdown is worse for the economy than what Sweden did. Then Walt comes along and presents data that refutes it. But wait, "it's logical."


   7283. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5963142)
What was Karl's "crime" ? LIke a lot of people with new ideas, he went way to far with and start to extend the analysis to all sorts of things that werent indicated: like saying NY should re open right now, or that Europe had already achieved herd immunity, or that nothing more needs to be done we can re open now, or that lock downs dont work.



So you're saying he had some good ideas at first but then went too far? :-)


Right? Because as soon as that right hand group hits 75% the numbers should decline. That would be before the other groups get to 75% should there should be some sort of "effective" herd immunity reached before you get to the exact R0 - 1/R0 pt. Yes or no?


In any case, the fact that not everyone interacts with everyone else is why herd immunity kicks in at ~70% rather than 100%. The variable interaction is already being accounted for.
   7284. puck Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5963143)
There is a different herd immunity article on the Atlantic, it's different from Karl's but somewhat similar in effect (claiming a lower percentage of infectiosn to reach herd immunity. Haven't had time to read it all. It's not a great article...takes a while to get to the point.

That’s exactly what Gomes’s work attempts to do. She describes a model in which everyone is equally susceptible to coronavirus infection (a homogeneous model), and a model in which some people are more susceptible than others (a heterogeneous model). Even if the two populations start out with the same average susceptibility to infection, you don’t get the same epidemics. “The outbreaks look similar at the beginning. But in the heterogeneous population, individuals are not infected at random,” she told me. “The highly susceptible people are more likely to get infected first. As a result, the average susceptibility gets lower and lower over time.”

Effects like this—“selective depletion” of people who are more susceptible—can quickly decelerate a virus’s spread. When Gomes uses this sort of pattern to model the coronavirus’s spread, the compounding effects of heterogeneity seem to show that the onslaught of cases and deaths seen in initial spikes around the world are unlikely to happen a second time. Based on data from several countries in Europe, she said, her results show a herd-immunity threshold much lower than that of other models.

“We just keep running the models, and it keeps coming back at less than 20 percent,” Gomes said. “It’s very striking.”



The article goes on, with plenty of people arguing that heterneity is likely a factory, but the infection rate will be much higher than 20% before herd immunity sets in.

Some of the same counterarguments apply...what if plenty of more susceptible people are social distancing, then stop...etc.
   7285. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:53 PM (#5963144)
It's just arguing for herd immunity, which people have generally agreed is a thing, while deliberately underestimating the impacts necessary to achieve herd immunity.


And it doesn't answer the question of if herd immunity is a sustainable thing for COVID-19 absent a vaccine.
   7286. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 03:59 PM (#5963146)
then what makes sense? It's just arguing for herd immunity


Its not that simple.

For instance what is said in posts 7270 and 7276. The article linked in 7276 is quite interesting, one upshoot is that how we live (what precautions we take) influences what the effective herd immunity ratio will be. That's not obvious and its not trivial.
   7287. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5963147)

So you're saying he had some good ideas at first but then went too far?



I mean from an intellectual stand point, its real interesting how people can make cogent arguments then shoot themselves in the foot. For instance, the avatar guy will sometimes make interesting points that no one else will even bring up, then he'll bring up some stoopid irrelevant point and everyone remembers the source and then they just dimiss him.
   7288. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:04 PM (#5963148)

Sure if we ignore every actual claim Karl made, his argument totally makes sense.


Well that's part of being intellectually honest and debating issues in a fair way. Not just shouting people down who you dont like or dont like their politics or some other thing they said was stoopid.
   7289. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:04 PM (#5963149)
puck -- thanks. very interesting article. & yes, I didn't see anyone making arguments to let 'er rip, especially becasue of what we still don't know about the length of immunity

“During the last few months, we’ve started talking about ‘natural herd immunity’ and what would be used to block future waves,” says Shweta Bansal, an associate professor at Georgetown University who studies how social interactions influence infectious diseases. She worries that many people conflate academic projections about reaching herd immunity with a “let it run wild” fatalism. “My view is that trying to take that route would lead to mass death and devastation,” she says.
...
For all the mysteries of how this virus affects our bodies and immune systems, and all the heterogeneity involved in the complex modeling of outcomes, Bansal believes that heterogeneity of behavior is the key determinant of our futures. “That magic number that we’re describing as a herd-immunity threshold very much depends on how individuals behave,” Bansal says, since R0 clearly changes with behaviors. On average, the R0 of the coronavirus currently seems to be between 2 and 3, according to Lipsitch. But if we all sealed ourselves in isolation pods today, the R0 would drop to zero. There would be no more deaths.


and then,

Parts of the world are illuminating a third way forward, something in between total lockdown and simply resuming the old ways of life. It happens through individual choices and collective actions, reimagining new ways of living, and having the state support and leadership to make those ways possible.


Well, ####, down here in Texas I'm doomed.
   7290. Biscuit_pants Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5963150)
“We just keep running the models, and it keeps coming back at less than 20 percent,” Gomes said. “It’s very striking.”

This is what I both love and hate about infectious disease research/medicine in general. All of our understanding is built on past understanding which is built upon some good and flimsy models/studies.

So this line of thinking can be at the same time dangerous and enlightening depending on multiple factors. I know I will treat it as dangerous until a lot more is known about the spread of this particular virus.
   7291. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5963151)
My understanding is that the aerosol form of this can travel up to 30 feet and linger for hours.


Under lab conditions.
   7292. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:06 PM (#5963152)
It's like when the Trumpers and concern trolls show up warning that we'll have lots of suicides from a lockdown-induced downturn. You show them that it hasn't happened int the past and it isn't happening now.


Yeah that was great wasn't it? Wasnt that a Snapper theory?
   7293. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:08 PM (#5963154)
Snapper + Howie (<-- concern troll)
   7294. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:09 PM (#5963155)

Under lab conditions.


well what's your understanding then? For instance how dangerous is it to work an 8 hour shift in wharehouse with say a dozen people?
   7295. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:10 PM (#5963156)
After attacks by Trump aides, Fauci says focus should be on the virus rather than ‘games people are playing.’

As Trump administration officials have increasingly sought to undermine him in recent days, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert and one of the most trusted federal officials working on the pandemic, made his most pointed remarks yet on Wednesday addressing tensions with the White House.

“I cannot figure out in my wildest dreams why they would want to do that,” Dr. Fauci said in an interview with The Atlantic on Wednesday. “I think they realize now that that was not a prudent thing to do, because it’s only reflecting negatively on them.”
   7296. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:10 PM (#5963157)

* Here's my deepest problem with your rescue of this "theory." Logical doesn't matter. Factual does.


what would I have to do to show you that not all people in a society are exposing themselves to the same number of people? WOuld I pull out an almanac that shows that X% of people ride the subway and X% take a taxi to work? Isnt this obvious?
   7297. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:15 PM (#5963158)
For all the mysteries of how this virus affects our bodies and immune systems, and all the heterogeneity involved in the complex modeling of outcomes, Bansal believes that heterogeneity of behavior is the key determinant of our futures. “That magic number that we’re describing as a herd-immunity threshold very much depends on how individuals behave,” Bansal says, since R0 clearly changes with behaviors. On average, the R0 of the coronavirus currently seems to be between 2 and 3, according to Lipsitch. But if we all sealed ourselves in isolation pods today, the R0 would drop to zero. There would be no more deaths.
fun fact:

the guinnea worm has still not been eradicated after 40 years of a concerted global effort to do so, and despite having a clear and actionable plan.
Yeah that was great wasn't it? Wasnt that a Snapper theory?
i think there was a poster a few months back who thought his wife was going to kill him if they couldn't go out in public anymore. i haven't seen them around recently.
   7298. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:18 PM (#5963159)
well what's your understanding then? For instance how dangerous is it to work an 8 hour shift in wharehouse with say a dozen people?


I am not a doctor -- wait, I am, but a PhD in English isn't what you want here -- but masked up, maintaining distancing, good air circulation, breaks when needed probably not too bad. Depends on the size of the warehouse, of course.

The guys at the auto repair across the street from me have been working steadily, three of them. They mask up when talking to customers and, I assume, with each other, but when they're under the hood they don't seem to be masked (I would be, but I'm older). There are fans in the shop and two open bays. Works for them, but I think 8 would be a bad idea.
   7299. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:20 PM (#5963160)

what would I have to do to show you that not all people in a society are exposing themselves to the same number of people? WOuld I pull out an almanac that shows that X% of people ride the subway and X% take a taxi to work? Isnt this obvious?


What prior epidemics are you using as your model for this?
   7300. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 15, 2020 at 04:23 PM (#5963164)
what would I have to do to show you that not all people in a society are exposing themselves to the same number of people? WOuld I pull out an almanac that shows that X% of people ride the subway and X% take a taxi to work? Isnt this obvious?


No, that is observable = factual. It's when one goes from that to talking number s based on logical deductions. That one model quoted in 7290 is "logical" and of course the modeler likes it. All the other modelers are like, "Possible, yeah, but in practice, I'll go for double that."

There's a shitload of deaths between 20% and 40%, and there's no evidence (a) that he putative threshold is correct (b) has been achieved, (c) is constant from place to place, or (d) better than what nest-door Neighbor Norway did and less than 10% the deaths.
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