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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 8715 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   7401. bunyon Posted: July 16, 2020 at 11:27 AM (#5963344)
flip
   7402. Ron J Posted: July 16, 2020 at 11:29 AM (#5963345)
Worth noting that in early March Canada and the US were basically in the same place in terms cases per 100K.

Now every state has a higher rate of new cases than the Canadian average. And few states are doing better now than Canada was at its worst (Quebec late April to early May).

Now it is true that Canada's done an unusually bad job of protecting places like retirement homes. Even so, it offers a reasonably robust counter to the notion that nothing matters.
   7403. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 16, 2020 at 11:42 AM (#5963346)
Now it is true that Canada's done an unusually bad job of protecting places like retirement homes.


There is going to be hell to pay for this some time in 2021 or 2022. Some level of government (federal or provincial) is going to get reamed out, and I can see the end of privatization of retirement/long-term-care homes happening. It might even be a major policy issue for the next election.
   7404. Hot Wheeling American Posted: July 16, 2020 at 11:59 AM (#5963351)
The partisanship is a generational failure. Or, rather, several generations. The boomers, gen x and even the millenials have had ample opportunity to create a functional nation. We certainly had the foundation for one. We've failed (so far, I mean other generations of Americans have likewise failed). We can always pick ourselves up and put it together (as other generations did) but until we do, we're going to continue to see failure like we are living through. I generally agree you can't compare generations because the challenges they face and their circumstances differ. Maybe the "greatest generation" would have failed in the face of COVID-19 and we would have handled the Depression and WWII just as well. But the facts on the ground are, they handled their business and, so far, we have not.

Pandemics basically require collective action. Get enough people who refuse to observe the needed protocols and it doesn't really matter how rich or smart the country as a whole is. Of course, wars require the same things. Americans appear to be good at violent intervention but ask us to be patient or calm and we go to pieces. The Federal government can't force mask wearing at a small town walmart. Only the local police can do that. And our local police have, um, issues.


Throw The Bums Out

We are in the midst of a world-historic failure of governance. Why isn’t anyone in charge acting like they are responsible for it?

That very much includes our federal government, which clearly signaled by early March that it was neither willing nor able to do what was necessary to contain the pandemic nationwide. Months into the crisis, we still face inexplicable and inexcusable testing delays, evidence that the federal government never addressed its earliest and most catastrophic failure. Here in New York, where Cuomo would have us believe that we have made it to the other side of the mountain, where tests are ostensibly available to anyone who wants one, I would face, according to one of the city’s main swab test sources, a seven-day wait for results, severely limiting the test’s effectiveness as a way of tracking the spread of the virus.

The United States has the highest Covid-19 death toll in the world, and it is rapidly adding a staggering number of new cases every day. These are conditions that would lead to widespread resignations of public health officials in a functionally democratic country. Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Michael Brown resigned less than a month after Hurricane Katrina made landfall in Louisiana. So far, most of the people who’ve been forced out of public health jobs since the pandemic began have been those advocating for more forceful and effective government action.

...

It is not remotely the end of the pandemic. Cuomo can at least brag that he eventually got his state’s numbers down to a manageable level, after stumbling through the unmanageable months. Governors across the South and West have no excuse for their own numbers. They reopened without doing any of the things the countries that have successfully contained the coronavirus did. Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis both opened bars while the virus was spreading at rates their meager contract-tracing systems simply couldn’t handle. Now, we are living with the predictable consequences.

And yet, even as the situation spirals out of control, it is still difficult to imagine Abbott or DeSantis resigning. Abbott adopted Cuomo’s strategy of simply going on TV constantly, to act as a comforting and commanding presence during the crisis he is very much responsible for exacerbating. It worked a bit more effectively for Cuomo, but Abbott’s decline in popularity has not exactly been commensurate with his state’s growth of Covid-19 cases: A Dallas Morning News poll has Abbott’s favorability dropping from 61 percent in April all the way down to … 54 percent. His numbers on his handling of the pandemic are a bit worse, as “48% now approve of the way he’s handling the virus, compared with 40% who disapprove.” Texas, meanwhile, has had more confirmed cases of Covid-19 than Iran.

...

We have come to expect so little from our government that it will seem perfectly unremarkable if no major heads roll over a disaster for which leaders across the country all bear some direct responsibility. The U.S. may not be entirely exceptional in this—I don’t really expect Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ouster in the United Kingdom—but New Zealand’s public health minister resigned this month, for mistakenly allowing two (two!) British visitors still suffering from Covid-19 to leave quarantine without being tested. (New Zealand has seen 22 deaths from Covid-19, which is fewer than any state in the continental U.S. but Wyoming, which has had 21.)

...

If Donald Trump loses in November, our political system’s last true believers will think that the system worked precisely as it is supposed to: It held him accountable. But this is an ongoing catastrophe of government as a whole. Every day brings a new reason to feel outraged or numbed by the scope of the disaster. We haven’t begun to grapple with the breadth of it. Governors, big-city mayors, public health officials, and congressional leaders should be resigning in disgrace, firing those responsible, groveling for forgiveness, or fleeing town under cover of night.

...

If you believe, fundamentally, in the American system, if you oppose radicalism from either side, you’d better hope that project is possible. Unless and until the people in charge in the U.S. are scared of actually being held responsible for the outcomes of their actions and inaction, they’re going to keep dragging us up mountains and leaving us to die at the peaks./
   7405. Tony S Posted: July 16, 2020 at 12:00 PM (#5963352)
I wonder if, in this environment, any Democrat could have minimized the issue.


We'll never know. But any Democratic president (or even a different Republican one) would not have disbanded the pandemic-readiness team, would have probably bothered to read his/her daily security briefings, and would have listened to his/her advisers about the seriousness of this approaching pandemic. Maybe the problem wouldn't have gotten to the point where anti-mask factionalism would have become an issue. Maybe it still would have, even with all the front-line defenses fully engaged. But we'll never know.
   7406. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 16, 2020 at 12:08 PM (#5963353)
No matter what there would have been some push back and partisan nonsense, but Trump has had pretty much the worst possible response at every step of the way.
   7407. Jay Z Posted: July 16, 2020 at 12:12 PM (#5963355)
As far as differences in the political system go between the 1950s and now:

In the 1950s, look at the newspapers at convention time. You had lists of the individual electors so you could "score at home" who they voted for on each ballot. I remember seeing an index card of a state rep shooting for reelection, advertising how he lobbying to get a particular highway built.

Does it matter what my alderperson thinks about BLM? Is that a main part of their job? Today, seemingly it is. Even people running for those local offices, you're probably going to hear about what they think about national and global issues.

Then there is the protest culture that is so astroturfed, yet dutifully covered by the media as being "organic."

COVID-19 is a local problem in its impact. It prevents you from going to your local church, bar or restaurant, ballgame, shopping center, party. But we don't think locally so much any more, because hey, the internet.
   7408. Hot Wheeling American Posted: July 16, 2020 at 12:33 PM (#5963362)
Then there is the protest culture that is so astroturfed

Cite?
   7409. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 16, 2020 at 12:35 PM (#5963363)
Does it matter what my alderperson thinks about BLM? Is that a main part of their job?
I know what you mean, but because so much policing is local the opinion of local officials on BLM is at least as important as the opinion of Senate candidates on the matter. A better example might be global warming.
   7410. mike f Posted: July 16, 2020 at 12:36 PM (#5963365)
the fact that you find that plausible is an embarrassment.

I mentioned Howie's multiple positive test theory a couple days ago. It's very popular in medium sized town Florida. I haven't seen any information to validate it. Nothing from health care workers (including multiple family members), social media, etc. Logically, it makes no sense. Why would you waste a positive test on someone that's still symptomatic? Who would qualify for daily tests, if not health care workers? The only reference to a daily test I've heard is from a Trevor Bauer interview. I don't think the MLB and NBA are driving Florida's positive test rate.

As for the pandemic itself, I don't see any reason to think FL and TX are going to avoid being NY or Italy.

I'm not disagreeing, but even Florida isn't monolithic. Large counties (Broward and Dade, at least) are taking it more seriously than the rest of the state. My elementary school aged nephews in Broward are starting distance learning in August. Somehow DeSantis isn't as dumb as Kemp. As bad an idea as I think opening the theme parks is, they're requiring masks and distancing in lines. Etc.
   7411. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 12:43 PM (#5963370)
I thought there would be a response to my Atlantic link in 7356, as it sounds similar to the hotly discussed Karl 25% rule.


Barry -- puck posted it in the 7200 page and there was some discussion at the time.As I recall the article, there was one modeler whose numbers were 20 percent but the consensus was that it seemed too low.
The other downside is that other than wishcast studies, no place seems close to 20 percent yet.
   7412. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 12:50 PM (#5963374)
And yet, even as the situation spirals out of control, it is still difficult to imagine Abbott or DeSantis resigning.

-- from 7404

Rubbish. It is flat out impossible to imagine resignation. On what grounds? Science? They don't believe in it. Failure of governance? Their job is to prove that government is the problem (the GOP slogan since RR.) COVID-19 is their opportunity to succeed beyond their wild3est dreams. Perhaps you are the person who DeSantis will finally get his apology from.

mentioned Howie's multiple positive test theory a couple days ago.

--from 7410

If anything, given the GOP's projection of their own behavior, I'd be looking for vans of COVID-negative people being retested. Even flown in from Utah and Wyoming to Florida to get tested and cast early votes for Trump.

I've seen a lot of discussion recently about Wayfair selling children, but I haven't seen except for two posts here, any discussion of extra texts. I find i disgusting that we are allowing kidnapped children to be sold and shipped online.

And please note that Kansas finally found election fraud: from a REPUBLICAN CONGRESSMAN. Speaking of projection.
   7413. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5963376)

#7407 -- I think it's not just the Internet. 24-hour cable news, the decimation of local newspapers, increased political influence of the evangelical Christian movement, all of these things have resulted in much more focus on national issues and "cultural divide" issues that wasn't there before.
   7414. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5963377)
boop.
   7415. Laser Man Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:02 PM (#5963378)
I think Howie's question between Florida and NY is related to the Case Fatality Rates. The CFR for New York is 32,495 deaths/430,277 cases = 7.6%, while Florida's is only 4,677/315,775 = 1.5%. While there probably have been slight improvements in treatments, this difference is probably due to testing.

In NY back in March and April, testing was only performed on the sick, and very few asymptomatic cases were found. So a much higher percentage of the cases resulted in fatalities. Florida and New York are doing around 60K tests/day now, but were only doing around 10K-20K in March/April. As testing increases, the CFR will keep decreasing, and will eventually drop to the expected IFR of 0.5-1.0% if all positive cases are detected.
   7416. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:03 PM (#5963381)

Anyway, I think if Hillary (or Obama or any other D) was President, even if the early stages of this pandemic had played out exactly the same way, things would look very different today. That's because the right-wing outrage machine would be losing their sh*t 24 hours a day blaming her for the pandemic, which was obviously a super dangerous Democrat/Commie/Muslim plot to kill Republicans. The same people protesting for the right to get their hair cut and not wear a mask in public would be hiding in their basements or stocking up their bunkers.

Meanwhile, the blue states who had seen how bad things had gotten at the outset would probably still be taking proper precautions -- ultimately, it seems like a lot of places only take it seriously once they've been hit hard, but once they have been they remain pretty diligent about it. There hasn't (yet) been a real second wave that has taken hold in any of the countries or states that were super hard hit early on, because they start to shut back down at any sign of a resurgence. Louisiana, if you consider them to have been hard hit at the beginning, may be an exception soon; we'll see.

Maybe I'm wrong about all of the above. I acknowledge that it's a counterfactual we can't know.
   7417. Jay Z Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:03 PM (#5963382)
#7407 -- I think it's not just the Internet. 24-hour cable news, the decimation of local newspapers, increased political influence of the evangelical Christian movement, all of these things have resulted in much more focus on national issues and "cultural divide" issues that wasn't there before.


Evangelicals have much less power than they once did. The Bowling Alone syndrome, where all group efforts are suffering for lack of members. Their numbers are declining just like everyone else's.
   7418. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:09 PM (#5963383)


I think Howie's question between Florida and NY is related to the Case Fatality Rates. The CFR for New York is 32,495 deaths/430,277 cases = 7.6%, while Florida's is only 4,677/315,775 = 1.5%. While there probably have been slight improvements in treatments, this difference is probably due to testing.


I think it's mostly testing and the lag, combined with some skewing towards younger cases. The skewing towards younger cases may just be a consequence of more testing -- more young people with mild symptoms are being tested right now than at the beginning of the pandemic, when you had to have more serious symptoms to get tested, which obviously meant older people were more likely to get tested. But I do think older people are being more careful than younger people now, whereas when most of New York got infected, nobody was taking any real precautions regardless of age. So older people, while still getting infected at higher rates than they were a few weeks ago, in places like FL, are probably comprising a smaller percentage of the *actual* cases as well the confirmed cases.

   7419. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:10 PM (#5963384)
Evangelicals have much less power than they once did. The Bowling Alone syndrome, where all group efforts are suffering for lack of members. Their numbers are declining just like everyone else's.

But less national political power than they did in the 1950s?
   7420. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:11 PM (#5963385)
Also: given the ratio of cases to deaths in Florida, either

(a) those same people are dying several times, or
(b) COVID is more deadly in FL than we imagined (new high per Worldometer today).
   7421. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:13 PM (#5963387)
Evangelicals have much less power than they once did. The Bowling Alone syndrome, where all group efforts are suffering for lack of members. Their numbers are declining just like everyone else's.


You are confusing numbers and power. They are much more entrenched within the GOP.
   7422. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5963390)
And How Wheels's request for cite that BLM is astroturfed is quite reasonable. Soros? Bill Gates? What bogie?
   7423. Laser Man Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5963391)
I think it's mostly testing and the lag
Right, the lag is the other big reason for the current low CFR. Unfortunately, these 10K cases/day that Florida is having now will probably result in 100+ deaths/day a few weeks later.
   7424. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:25 PM (#5963393)

You are confusing numbers and power. They are much more entrenched within the GOP.


If we use television as an analogy, the NFL doesn't get ratings anywhere near as good as they did in the 70s and 80s, but because all other television ratings have cratered even more, they have just as much or more clout than they did then.
   7425. mike f Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:28 PM (#5963394)
No, his question was if a single person could test positive 15 times and that writ large was juicing the numbers in Florida. This is a common conspiracy theory used by COVID deniers. I’m not saying it’s impossible, just highly unlikely. Sorry, I had to log out to quote it:
...there finally are so many tests going on that there are people - waiting to get out of hospitals or back to work - who could test positive 5, 10, 15 times but go in as 5, 10, or 15 different people in the data.
   7426. Srul Itza Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:43 PM (#5963398)
No, his question was if a single person could test positive 15 times and that writ large was juicing the numbers in Florida


Right up until then, I was willing to give Howie the benefit of the doubt, in the face of much sniping he received.

Trying to sell that conspiracy theory, though, when the fact is that even with increased testing it appears that many people are not able to get tests, AND that it is taking a week or more to get test results back, is over the line.
   7427. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:51 PM (#5963400)
...there finally are so many tests going on that there are people - waiting to get out of hospitals or back to work - who could test positive 5, 10, 15 times but go in as 5, 10, or 15 different people in the data.


1. They're called charts. Every patient has onew and every test is coded.
2. What the #### are you running COVID tests on someone who has it for? S/he has it.
3. Oh, wait, you're testing until the antibodies are gone and its safe to send them home after three months?

That's worse than the truther theory. Trolls are trolls.
   7428. deleuze68 Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5963402)
It's actually the opposite in Florida - they're juicing the negatives to lower the positivity rate. They are doing this by only counting the first positive test as a positive case. All subsequent positives from the same person are discarded. Meanwhile every negative including multiples from the same person are counted.

This is the best article I could find on the matter https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-positivity-rate-florida-paints-rosy-pandemic-picture-20200715-cpwwngaefzdnpitbs7buh7zsei-story.html
   7429. Eudoxus Posted: July 16, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5963403)
The updated version of the "multiple positive tests" theory seems to be: states are asking positive testees who they've been in contact with recently, listing all of those people as "probable COVID", and adding them to the state's positive case count.
   7430. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 02:08 PM (#5963406)
The updated version of the "multiple positive tests" theory seems to be: states are asking positive testees who they've been in contact with recently, listing all of those people as "probable COVID", and adding them to the state's positive case count.


Also those the infected have prayed for. I mean, why not.

It's actually the opposite in Florida - they're juicing the negatives to lower the positivity rate. They are doing this by only counting the first positive test as a positive case. All subsequent positives from the same person are discarded. Meanwhile every negative including multiples from the same person are counted.


Right, anything the FOX/Trump crowd accuses "the left" of doing is something they themselves are doing.
   7431. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 02:09 PM (#5963407)

Right, the lag is the other big reason for the current low CFR. Unfortunately, these 10K cases/day that Florida is having now will probably result in 100+ deaths/day a few weeks later.

Florida is already at 100+ for the past three days, and averaging 96 deaths per day over the past week.

The real question now is whether the 10,000 *confirmed* cases per day means the state really has 20k new people getting infected per day, or 50k+. We know they're not catching every case -- no place ever does. In NY and Spain, the ratio of actual cases to confirmed cases was something like 8-10x based on the antibody testing results that were released back in May (and remember the Santa Clara study that claimed it was 50-85x?). I am *reasonably* confident that, given the amount of testing that most states are doing now, such ratios are probably not as high today. But we have no idea what they really are. The best way to estimate is unfortunately, the number of people who have died, and that we won't know for another several weeks due to the lag.
   7432. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 02:23 PM (#5963410)
Actually, Florida had 4,626 confirmed deaths as of yesterday. Using the NY study, which found an 0.6% IFR using a 19-day lag, that means Florida had ~771k cases 19 days ago. Let's call it 500k-1 million. Well, Florida only had 123k confirmed cases 19 days ago. So their actual number of cases was probably 4-8x what they had confirmed up to that point.

Now, they are testing a lot more people than they were 19 days ago, so that ratio may have come down. But the positive test rate hasn't really changed, so it's possible the proportion of missed cases hasn't either.

Ugh. I started writing that hoping to reassure myself that things in Florida weren't quite as bad as some people fear...but I actually made myself more worried than I was before.
   7433. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 16, 2020 at 02:37 PM (#5963412)
The partisanship and politicization of absolutely everything up to and including a deadly virus isn't surprising at all. It all goes back to the death of the fact.

The concept that what we think of as facts are often subjective and should be examined critically originated with the academic left but was weaponized by the right, which I think has been pleasantly astonished over the last maybe 15-20 years to find out exactly how much they could get away with in terms of what people will believe. It turns out people will believe whatever confirms their existing ideology, to the greatest extent they are allowed to. Without the concept of objective facts to act as a constraint, people filter anything and everything through their existing frameworks. Given that any separation between morality and politics has pretty much been erased, of course everything becomes political and partisan.
   7434. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: July 16, 2020 at 02:54 PM (#5963416)
Trying to sell that conspiracy theory, though, when the fact is that even with increased testing it appears that many people are not able to get tests, AND that it is taking a week or more to get test results back, is over the line.


My son might have been exposed on Jul 4. He found out on Jul 6 and called for a test that day. They couldn't fit him in until Jul 13. We are still waiting for the results. CNN anchor Victor Blackwell reported yesterday that he has been waiting 13 days for his results. That sort of testing system is useless.
   7435. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5963417)
I think folks are being a bit tough on Howie -- he asked a question, which wasn't crazy given how poor and inconsistent the reporting is in many places.

But anyway, Florida discloses two number each day -- the number of new cases and the number of new positive tests. The latter is always higher, so yes there are people testing positive multiple times. But they aren't being included in the case count.

And the number of multiple positives isn't really that significant anyway. In aggregate, the number of positive tests in Florida has been 25% more than the number of cases (393k vs. 316k). As noted in 7432, they are definitely missing many more cases than they would be double-counting, even if they were double-counting.
   7436. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 03:03 PM (#5963418)

I think folks are being a bit tough on Howie -- he asked a question, which wasn't crazy given how poor and inconsistent the reporting is in many places.


He asked a truther talking point. Didn't ask about people getting retested to juice the negatives. Didn't ask about states cooking their results, which actually does happen. It's a pattern
   7437. RJ in TO Posted: July 16, 2020 at 03:15 PM (#5963421)
I think folks are being a bit tough on Howie -- he asked a question, which wasn't crazy given how poor and inconsistent the reporting is in many places.
Howie is always just asking questions.
   7438. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 03:26 PM (#5963423)

Howie asked the other day what's going on in Georgia. Here is my best guess (I wish I could post charts here because this is all very easy to show graphically):

Georgia is one that people have been expecting to blow up for a while for a variety of reasons -- their governor made some dumb comments early on about not knowing asymptomatic people could transmit the disease, long after this was widely known by just about everybody else on the planet. They were one of the earliest states to being reopening. They had some well-publicized cases of the state presenting data that appeared to be manipulated to look better.

But to my point at the time, despite all this, their numbers never looked that bad. Their new daily case counts remained flat through mid-June, even as they gradually increased their testing. So their actual new cases were probably going down during the lockdown, and then staying roughly flat for a while after that.

Why is that? I'm not sure. Even after they began to open up, Google mobility data shows people largely continued to stay home. To be fair, the same is true in Florida -- if you plot FL, GA, and CT on a chart, you would have a hard time distinguishing them.

But beginning in mid-June, their case counts and positive test rates began to tick upwards. Basically just a few days, maybe a week after they did in Florida, and not quite to the same extent so far. Due to the lag, deaths continued to decline for a while even as cases increased, which was puzzling.

But now we are seeing reported deaths start to rise. They are a week or two behind Florida, so there's a bit more of a lag between case reporting and fatality reporting there. But the trend is pretty clear over the past few weeks. The Georgia data looks very similar to Florida, except a week or two later and *maybe* not quite as bad.
   7439. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 03:35 PM (#5963426)
He asked a truther talking point. Didn't ask about people getting retested to juice the negatives. Didn't ask about states cooking their results, which actually does happen. It's a pattern

Would you rather he not ask, and simply believe the point (or wonder whether to believe it, thereby doubting the real news)?

I don't understand why people feel the need to make it personal. That's all. You make it personal and people start to feel that an attack on their ideas is an attack on their person, and they'll defend both. (Many people act that way even when you only attack the ideas, but I haven't seen Howie do that.)
   7440. Greg K Posted: July 16, 2020 at 03:37 PM (#5963427)
I think measuring how much people are actually interacting (as opposed to just looking at government directives) is a significant factor, but very difficult to get a handle on. Or knowing with any kind of accuracy how many people are wearing masks.

Which isn't to say that government directives don't have a significant influence on mobility, or business operations, or mask-wearing...they do. But I imagine group behaviour varies across populations. Two locations might have the same official line on masks, but the people living there could be wearing them at very different rates. I've seen these things estimated through surveys, or mobility tracked by phones...and those are probably useful estimates (and the best we're likely to ever get). But I think part of any explanation for why here and not there might be difficult to measure group behaviours.
   7441. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 03:43 PM (#5963430)
Meanwhile, the real concern about data cooking

Coronavirus data has already disappeared after Trump administration shifted control from CDC

All distraction from the actual issues. Thanks, FOX.
   7442. Howie Menckel Posted: July 16, 2020 at 03:50 PM (#5963432)
apparently I am getting a lot of attention today, but mostly from people I am blocking.

to 7439's point (I see that one!): I remember a few years ago that a few posters here would get upset if I didn't refer who made a particular observation - instead I just clipped a quote from a post and went from there.

it kind of opened my eyes. what difference does it make who raised a particular point? why not just focus on the point?

well, it turns out, because so many posters here love to "make it personal." fortunately, there is a simple solution to that - and I highly recommend it. in fact, I welcome your "erasing" of my posts on your feed.

we now resume our regularly-scheduled Howie bashing.

:)
   7443. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 16, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5963433)
But now we are seeing reported deaths start to rise. They are a week or two behind Florida, so there's a bit more of a lag between case reporting and fatality reporting there. But the trend is pretty clear over the past few weeks. The Georgia data looks very similar to Florida, except a week or two later and *maybe* not quite as bad.
My friend is a doctor near Atlanta. He reports that things are really bad on the ground there.
   7444. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 04:23 PM (#5963438)

I don't understand why people feel the need to make it personal. That's all.


I think it's the opposite of personal.

On the internet, you meet two kinds of interlocutors. The first is more or less open to an evenhanded dialogue about various topics. The second poses as the first, but in fact is more interested in argumentation, showing off their supposed superior rhetorical skills, and otherwise shitstirring. Their goal is either to create chaos by embroiling everyone else in an argument, in which case they can bask in their own feelings of superiority at how easily everyone else is manipulated, or people ignore or block them, in which case they can play the martyr and accuse everyone else of bad faith and closemindedness. The second type is not one to subject their own beliefs to critical analysis. They know what they think, and they see everyone else as chumps.

The second type of poster outnumbers the first type by between 10 to 1 and 20 to 1, depending on where you visit.

Now, those who have wasted numerous hours debating the second type online quickly recognize that these folks tend to have the same approach. They advance similar talking points, similar bogus analysis, similar 'logical arguments', similar rhetorical strategies. This helps because the sooner you can identify them, the sooner your online community can ignore them. Consider it a virtual social antibody response.

As a result, when someone on a board presents a talking point or argument that is characteristic of bad faith actors, the antibody response activates. Now, maybe the person is of the second type, or maybe they are someone of the first type who has unwittingly picked up on a bad faith argument advanced somewhere else online and doesn't realize it is the fruit of a poisoned tree. Those people may inadvertently trigger a negative reaction against them. Then again, see point #2 on the relative prevalence of the two types of posters.
   7445. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 04:30 PM (#5963440)
I've got some very sincere questions about the 20 percent argument. Maybe they're stupid questions. If they are, please explain why.

1. If Sweden achieved immunity at 7,610 cases/M, why can't NJ (20,524/M) and NY (22,152/M) just let it rip? and why is AZ still so hot at (18,494/M)?
2. Luxembourg has 1/3 the death/M at a slightly higher infection rate? Why are we not looking there?
3. Given that Norway, which has reopened on limits similar to Sweden's has seen only 50 percent more infections in July than Sweden has seen DEATHS, why should we look to Sweden?
4. Much of the argument for Sweden, as I understand it, is premised on how much better they'll do in a second wave in the absence of a vaccine? But do we know enough about the length of COVID-19 immunity -- or the actual infection rate (esp. if the antibody test picks up other coronaviruses) to be sure?

ETA: and after reading 7444, let me stress: I've been vexed by these questions every time something "Sweden!" is posted, and I don't understand the data or the logic that keeps Sweden popping up. Please, Explain me.
   7446. Laser Man Posted: July 16, 2020 at 04:39 PM (#5963442)
[7445]I'm certainly not advocating any Sweden position, but the raw case numbers don't reflect the different testing levels. New York has tested 253 per 1000 people, while Sweden has only tested 67 per 1000. So Sweden's infection rate could actually be higher than New York (state).
   7447. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 04:42 PM (#5963443)

to 7439's point (I see that one!): I remember a few years ago that a few posters here would get upset if I didn't refer who made a particular observation - instead I just clipped a quote from a post and went from there.

Howie, to be clear, the first line in my 7439 was a quote from someone else's post. For some reason when I posted from my phone the italics tags didn't work.
   7448. PreservedFish Posted: July 16, 2020 at 04:55 PM (#5963445)
Few are now pointing to Sweden as a preferred outcome. But if you believe that the coronavirus is going to burn through the world before there's a vaccine, then Sweden is something a success story, because they've weathered the first storm without allowing their hospitals to get totally overwhelmed. Their rate of Covid death, although high in comparison to neighbors, is sustainable. I think the idea is that absent crippling interminable lockdowns, every nation will eventually tally the same types of numbers as Sweden, and so Sweden did well to get it over with. But honestly, I think it's mostly inertia ... Sweden was the Great Experiment against which we could judge all other nations. So people keep reaching to it as a comparison, even if we're not sure what it's actually showing us anymore. I predicted months ago that Sweden's results would be impossible to interpret and would emerge as a kind of Rorschach test, with people seeing whatever they want to see. That might have been wrong - I think the results have actually been bad enough that most people are ready to call it a failure - but it's probably still at least partially right.
   7449. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: July 16, 2020 at 05:04 PM (#5963447)
Their job is to prove that government is the problem (the GOP slogan since RR.)

As PJ O'Rourke put it, "Republicans say government doesn't work, then they get elected and prove it."

the right-wing outrage machine would be losing their sh*t 24 hours a day blaming (Hillary) for the pandemic

Luckily, in real life, the left wing has been scrupulously even-handed about our actual president's role in the situation.

Given that any separation between morality and politics has pretty much been erased, of course everything becomes political and partisan.

I hate living in a world in which everything is about politics, which means everything's about Trump. (I mean, we'll get rid of Trump eventually, but the stink of politics will be with us forever and ever, g@ddamn.)
   7450. tshipman Posted: July 16, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5963448)
I think 7444 is part of it.

Part of it for me is also just fatigue. Various types have learned that if they just keep offering up bad arguments, it takes time to debunk them.

That debunking dominates the conversation, crowding out potentially more interesting or useful conversation. There is no good conversation to be had in debunking arguments that are not made in good faith.

There are nearly infinite resources on the internet. If someone really did have a good faith question about repeated positive tests, they could read any one of the dozens of good articles explaining that. Or they could read it in this thread, where it was discussed and debunked previously.
   7451. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 05:19 PM (#5963458)
7450 -- the ability to see the refutation depends on the poster's blocking policy

and thanks for the answers so far on the Swedish model
   7452. Greg Pope Posted: July 16, 2020 at 05:49 PM (#5963470)
I hate living in a world in which everything is about politics, which means everything's about Trump. (I mean, we'll get rid of Trump eventually, but the stink of politics will be with us forever and ever, g@ddamn.)

Seth Meyers had a snippet where he suggested that Biden's slogan should be "Elect me and you won't hear a thing from me for 4 years". I could sign on for that.
   7453. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 06:15 PM (#5963475)
Not sure where Worldometers gets its numbers from.


Dave, they have a source column for each entry. One source of discrepancy may be that Worldometer enters info by date of report not by date of occurrence.

Thus, yes, Hidalgo County TX's 's 66 likely was an aggregate update, substantially higher than it was earlier in the day. Some counties (I believe Ector, TX) is one, only report on certain days.

If it takes multiple days to get a result, what is the meaning of any day's worth of tests? They're apparently not people who were tested today or yesterday.
   7454. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 06:47 PM (#5963479)
Many people who don’t want COVID-19 to be the terrible crisis that it is have clung to the idea that more cases won’t mean more deaths. Some Americans have been perplexed by a downward trend of national deaths, even as cases exploded in the Sun Belt region. But given the policy choices that state and federal officials have made, the virus has done exactly what public-health experts expected. When states reopened in late April and May with plenty of infected people within their borders, cases began to grow. COVID-19 is highly transmissible, makes a large subset of people who catch it seriously ill, and kills many more people than the flu or any other infectious disease circulating in the country.

The likelihood that more cases of COVID-19 would mean that more people would die from the disease has always been very high. Even at the low point for deaths in the U.S., roughly 500 people died each day, on average. Now, with the national death numbers rising once again, there’s simply no argument that America can sustain coronavirus outbreaks while somehow escaping fatalities. America’s deadly summer coronavirus surge is undeniable. And it was predictable this whole time by looking honestly at the data.
   7455. Ron J Posted: July 16, 2020 at 08:01 PM (#5963483)
Regarding school openings, some alarming numbers from Israel. According to testimony by Udi Kliner, the health ministry’s deputy director of public-health services:

1,400 Israelis were diagnosed with the disease last month. Of those, 185 caught it at events such as weddings, 128 in hospitals, 113 in workplaces, 108 in restaurants, bars, or nightclubs, and 116 in synagogues, according to Kliner, while 657 —which is to say 47 percent of the total — were infected by the coronavirus in schools.

Things have gotten worse in the intervening period.

According to the education ministry, 2,026 students, teachers, and staff have contracted COVID-19, and 28,147 are in quarantine due to possible contagion.

Now I think it's clear that Israel got spectacularly bad results because they didn't prepare in any way. They appear to have adopted the whole "kids don't get Covid" as policy and just opened everything. At the same time they opened everything else up.

Schools are going to open in the US real soon now. I hope things are reasonably planned, but … not optimistic.
   7456. PreservedFish Posted: July 16, 2020 at 08:31 PM (#5963485)
How the heck do they know where people catch it?
   7457. RJ in TO Posted: July 16, 2020 at 08:34 PM (#5963488)
How the heck do they know where people catch it?
Presumably, with smaller numbers of positives to trace, they're able to identify the order of contraction, and likely points of contact.
   7458. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 08:46 PM (#5963490)
And that is why the press secretary had to.exclude science from decisions about school openings
   7459. Ron J Posted: July 16, 2020 at 08:54 PM (#5963492)
#7456 Interesting question that the ministry of health has refused to answer directly. As one specialist said:

“There is no transparency regarding the statistics. The data is not being made available to epidemiologists, so it is impossible to gauge precisely, but we saw many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in middle schools— it is very possible that caused the outbreak.”

As always when there is a lack of transparency there are rumors that Shin Bet is involved somehow. It's definitely involved in contact tracing.
   7460. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 08:57 PM (#5963494)
As always when there is a lack of transparency there are rumors that Shin Bet is involved somehow. It's definitely involved in contact tracing.


bing!
   7461. PreservedFish Posted: July 16, 2020 at 09:00 PM (#5963495)
I mean, I have no reason to doubt that the virus was raging through the schools there, but the quote smacks of false precision. Exactly 108 in restaurants, bars or nightclubs, yeah right.
   7462. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 09:21 PM (#5963499)
If so, then so is the entire contact-testing model -- and I'll not say that it isn't. It's a connect the dots puzzle, and the connection has to happen somewhere.
   7463. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 16, 2020 at 09:26 PM (#5963500)
Hidalgo County, pop 856,707 did not have an eye-popping 66 reported deaths today. But it did have 22, which led the state.

Daily totals from Worldometer; total deaths agree with the County's dashboard.
   7464. Ron J Posted: July 16, 2020 at 09:35 PM (#5963501)
#7461 I'd expect anybody here to read the "ish" into the numbers. I genuinely doubt there was any agency wide goal served in misrepresenting the numbers. I know I treated the numbers as a very educated guess.
   7465. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 16, 2020 at 11:27 PM (#5963512)
Regarding school openings, some alarming numbers from Israel.
Germany seems to have had the opposite experience - German study finds low infection rate at schools.
   7466. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: July 16, 2020 at 11:39 PM (#5963513)
German has had 201,000 cases total. We had over 1/3 of that today.
   7467. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 16, 2020 at 11:47 PM (#5963514)
And that is why the press secretary had to.exclude science from decisions about school openings
Deliberately distorting the Press Secretary’s remarks is weak sauce, whether by Blomberg or an equally biased ‘reporter’. The comment wasn’t that the science should be ignored, or was an obstacle, but that science supported reopening schools for the fall:
You know, the President has said unmistakably that he wants schools to open. And I was just in the Oval talking to him about that. And when he says open, he means open in full — kids being able to attend each and every day at their school.

The science should not stand in the way of this. And as Dr. Scott Atlas said — I thought this was a good quote — “Of course, we can [do it]. Everyone else in the…Western world, our peer nations are doing it. We are the outlier here.”

The science is very clear on this, that — you know, for instance, you look at the JAMA Pediatrics study of 46 pediatric hospitals in North America that said the risk of critical illness from COVID is far less for children than that of seasonal flu.

The science is on our side here, and we encourage for localities and states to just simply follow the science, open our schools. It’s very damaging to our children: There is a lack of reporting of abuse; there’s mental depressions that are not addressed; suicidal ideations that are not addressed when students are not in school. Our schools are extremely important, they’re essential, and they must reopen.
Quite different from what #7458 claimed.
   7468. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 11:56 PM (#5963515)
Dave, they have a source column for each entry. One source of discrepancy may be that Worldometer enters info by date of report not by date of occurrence.


Sure, but they don’t screen cap it like Covid Tracking Project does. So there’s no way to go back and check whether the dashboard they’re sourcing from actually listed 154 new deaths that day, since the dashboard is dynamic and updates daily.

Texas itself claims to have reported 110 new deaths the day that Worldometers says 154. Since the state is consistently reporting at around the same time each day, and you can audit those numbers historically, I choose to go by those rather than Worldometers in terms of daily or weekly trends.
   7469. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 16, 2020 at 11:58 PM (#5963516)
And that is why the press secretary had to.exclude science from decisions about school openings

You can’t post things like this and call other people trolls.
   7470. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 17, 2020 at 12:02 AM (#5963518)
German has had 201,000 cases total. We had over 1/3 of that today.
That’s irrelevant to whether schools and children are transmission sources. The German study says they aren’t:
Tests were carried out in several schools where there had been known outbreaks of the virus, and 24 of the participants had at least one confirmed coronavirus case in their household. Nonetheless, only one of those 24 participants was found to have antibodies, the study noted.
Maybe we need more studies, but this one differs from the recently posted unlinked Israeli info.
   7471. Howie Menckel Posted: July 17, 2020 at 12:33 AM (#5963520)
And that is why the press secretary had to.exclude science from decisions about school openings

You can’t post things like this and call other people trolls.


that "quote" completely dominated Twitter for hours today and was RT'd by countless influencers.

I was too busy with, well, work to dive into it.

that press gal is unreliable enough (as an understatement) to make it plausible. but I am surprised at the way it was pitched across mainstream media.

this is an extreme example, but I hope others find it instructive - rather than zoning in against (Dave) for not toeing the authorized line.

if you totally fell for this meme, it might be worth thinking about who lured you there.

(and this is not about the wisdom of when and where schools should reopen, which is a different topic.)
   7472. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 12:42 AM (#5963521)
Several large school districts — including in Houston, Los Angeles and San Francisco — said this week that they would open the academic year with online classes, bucking pressure from President Trump and his administration to get students back into classrooms.
Kayleigh McEnany, the White House press secretary, said Thursday that Mr. Trump still wants to see schools reopen.
“When he says open, he means open and full, kids being able to attend each and every day at their school,” she said. “The science should not stand in the way of this.”
“The science is on our side here,” Ms. McEnany said, adding that the United States is an “outlier” among other countries sending children back to school. But no other country has decided to try and send children back to school with the virus continuing to surge, and relatively little is still known about the role children play in transmitting the illness.
link

---
The science is absolutely standing in the way of it.

0-10 is one thing for cases. But school age starts at 6.
10-19 do catch COVID - I cited that somewhere above. See also the Israeli report cited a few above.

That's driving decisions in TX that even Greg Abbott isn't raising a peep about. In fact, the TEA backed off its initial tough stance yesterday. https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/15/texas-schools-closed-public-health/

So much of this discussion focuses on students. Are teachers important? See what happened after the In person meeting in SF?


Texas itself claims to have reported 110 new deaths the day that Worldometers says 154.

For the work you do with the numbers and absolutely use tracking project.
What worldometer does manage to do is to capture the deaths as reported, not as reported by day, e.g. the 66 from Hidalgo County.
When those deaths "disappear" because not reported IRT, it fuels the questions about inflated infection numbers (one theory launched in a FOX interview is that the feds pay more for COVID patients therefore hospitals make more money from juicing the pandemic than doing their regular work.)

--
yes, I should have linked the full quotation. my bad

   7473. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 12:46 AM (#5963522)
Sweden?
Bucking a global trend, Sweden has kept day care centers and schools through ninth grade open since COVID-19 emerged, without any major adjustments to class size, lunch policies, or recess rules. That made the country a perfect natural experiment about schools’ role in viral spread that many others could have learned from as they reopen schools or ponder when to do so. Yet Swedish officials have not tracked infections among school children—even when large outbreaks led to the closure of individual schools or staff members died of the disease.


staff members died of the disease
large outbreaks
closure of schools

but no data.
   7474. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:03 AM (#5963523)
just a reminder: eugenics was the public policy for sweden re:"undesirables" until the mid-1970s.

it's very possible that elements within their decision making hierarchy simply view covid deaths as "thinning the herd", and so they're unconcerned by any numbers that come out of this outbreak.
   7475. tshipman Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:41 AM (#5963525)
I don't understand how the additional context helps that quote by the press sec.

She very clearly is not saying science supports re-opening in the fall. She is saying that the science doesn't matter.
   7476. Ron J Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:20 AM (#5963526)
#7475 She is also claiming that the science backs their view. Yeah, it's not actually true but plenty of people honestly believe it's as simple as kids don't get covid. See (examples that are very much not on point for the US right now) and of course ignore inconvenient data points.
   7477. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:22 AM (#5963527)
She says two things that are not on all fours with each other.

1. “The science should not stand in the way of this.”
2. “The science is on our side here.”

Still, the claim that the science is on the side of opening is not substantiated. Yes, school-aged childr3en are significantly less likely to die. But they are only somewhat less (you might think that adjective an underbid, ok) likely to become infected. Do we have any data on spread by what what one group of scientists called "paucisymptomatic" children?
Also, is deaths the only meaningful measure here? What about the disruption when students have to stay home, even if they're not hospitalized? I found the switch very disruptive last spring.
Further, just to restate, schools include teachers. What happens when they get sick? What happens if we decide aged, high-risk, and pregnant teachers and staff should stay home? I assume you know that many, perhaps most, school systems have trouble retaining teachers -- and the ones that suffer worst, if this matters, are the ones with the most at-risk children.
& bus drivers: I read the other day that in a lot of places they're retired people: 80% of Houston school bus drivers are seniors with health issues and most are afraid to return to work.

Look, I hate online ed. I dread having to do it this fall. I'd prefer to see U of Phoenix-type schools shuttered. I think the insistence on computers at all levels of the K-12 is detrimental to actual, meaningful learning. But there's a village involved in any school.

   7478. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:31 AM (#5963529)
I don't understand how the additional context helps that quote by the press sec. She very clearly is not saying science supports re-opening in the fall. She is saying that the science doesn't matter.
That is simply not true - the full quote is quite clear. Pretending otherwise is pure spin, and quite costly to the credibility of those doing the spinning.
   7479. tshipman Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:35 AM (#5963530)
#7475 She is also claiming that the science backs their view. Yeah, it's not actually true but plenty of people honestly believe it's as simple as kids don't get covid. See (examples that are very much not on point for the US right now) and of course ignore inconvenient data points.


She's saying something more like, the science is on our side, but even if it weren't, we shouldn't let it get in the way.
   7480. Ron J Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:57 AM (#5963531)
#7479 Actually I don't see any other way to parse what she said.
   7481. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:46 AM (#5963533)
She's saying something more like, the science is on our side, but even if it weren't, we shouldn't let it get in the way.

No she isn’t. I mean, that’s clearly what the President and most of the administration believe, but it’s not what she said.

———————
(Separate thought)

Sweden had schools open for months and “only” got to 6% of their population infected. To me, that sort of indicates that of course kids can get it and transmit it, but they are not the major vectors for spread that some fear. And that maybe it’s not crazy to reopen them — start with reduced capacity, And have proper precautions in place, online choices available for those who are at risk or don’t feel comfortable, and contingency plans to go back online quickly if it an outbreak happens or if new data emerges.

I mean, don’t do it in places like Florida or Arizona where the disease is currently running rampant. But in NY or CT, where there are very few cases and other workplaces are starting to reopen? I don’t know, I’m not pushing for it, especially after the Israel situation, but it doesn’t strike me as crazy. Especially given that online learning seems to have been a disaster for many.

Enough countries in Europe are now doing it, I believe, that we should know more by the time the school year starts here. So I think we should follow and respond to the data that emerges from that, not necessarily prejudge one way or another.

If you’ve been here for more than a minute you should know that I take COVID as seriously as just about anyone. So please don’t think I’m trying to minimize it here, or defending the administration’s response or position.
   7482. BrianBrianson Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:47 AM (#5963534)
Yeah, the Israel result is concerning, but it's at least somewhat outlying - school reopenings in France didn't look like that at all, for instance. Denmark, Spain, Belgium re-opened fairly quickly too, without huge outbreaks. But in all cases, there's at least some modifications to behaviour.

And it's presented as something as a false dichotomy. The virus of course will spread in schools, and kids can catch it, but it spreads less well in schools (at least for pre-teens), and is typically less serious for them. So there isn't really some "the Science says do this:" answer. It'll depend on what you're doing at schools, which schools you're talking about, and where the society as a whole is. If everything else is open, keeping schools closed is probably stupid. If you're in near-full lockdown, keeping schools closed is probably wise. And of course it's not a decision in isolation; if sending your kid to school enables you to work from home rather than in a big open plan office, that's probably a net positive. If you should be in lockdown but you're not ... well, school closings are probably irrelevant.

If you're opening schools - keeping classes segregated from one another, soap, soap, soap, masks where plausible, outdoors if possible, etc, can all increase their safety.

But yeah, it's quickly becoming a partisan issue, so "left" identifying individuals want to keep schools closed even where there's little virus and other things are open, and "right" identifying individuals want to open schools where the virus is out of control and the response is three omnishambles ####### in a sack.

But again with the Doug Ford comparison, if Trump had come out all

Okay, Folks. They're saying you're gonna have to wear masks. Well, what are you some kind of #####, can't handle a mask? Me, I like it - makes me feel like Batman, which, let's face it, I basically am. Well, maybe I'm more of an Iron Man type, come to think of it. You know - trust me folks - they asked me to play Bruce Wayne in the Batman movie, but i was too busy making LOTS of MONEY; If, like me, you're a super genius business man - or woman - 'cause women can be great at business now, just like my good friend Karen something - well, folks, Great News, we've got Make American Great Again masks available on our merchandise site, less than twenty dollars, great quality - made in America, 'cause we've got to get that American Worker back to work; That's how you know they're of great quality, not like the terrible ones that come out of CHINA that we don't need anyways.

And so on, so forth, foreign virus, I'm the only one you can trust, need to close the borders to keep out the foreigners full of disease the Democrats want to invite in, blah, blah, blah, bring work to America, what wimp is afraid of washing their hands, whenever I'm at a GREAT AMERICAN FACTORY those guys get dirty, they use the best soaps, blah blah blah ...

He'd probably be in position to be favoured to get re-elected.
   7483. Ron J Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:18 AM (#5963535)
#7481 Serious question. You disagree with 7479. How do you square the “The science should not stand in the way of this.”

Is it as simple as it being an awkward restating of “The science is on our side here.” ?
   7484. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:28 AM (#5963536)
The virus of course will spread in schools, and kids can catch it, but it spreads less well in schools (at least for pre-teens), and is typically less serious for them
we do not know the long term effects of this, so noone can rightly claim that covid is less serious for kids, when they will have to live with the consequences (where they exist) for the rest of their much longer, and possibly decades shortened, lives.
No she isn’t. I mean, that’s clearly what the President and most of the administration believe, but it’s not what she said.
it's also not what they believe, either.


it is beyond hypocritical for them to argue that "the science agrees with us" when they choose to ignore any and all evidence that doesn't. picking and choosing which facts you like is not how the scientific process works.
Further, just to restate, schools include teachers. What happens when they get sick? What happens if we decide aged, high-risk, and pregnant teachers and staff should stay home? I assume you know that many, perhaps most, school systems have trouble retaining teachers -- and the ones that suffer worst, if this matters, are the ones with the most at-risk children.
& bus drivers: I read the other day that in a lot of places they're retired people: 80% of Houston school bus drivers are seniors with health issues and most are afraid to return to work.
i suspect that teachers unions are prepared to go to war with state and federal governments if they feel like their personnel is being thrown into the incinerator.

i think the reason why they're not actively out in front of the "preparations" going on is because they know they have veto power over all of this. school administrations are responsible for providing a safe working environment, but if that safe environment is not provided, i cannot imagine that the unions will abide it.
   7485. Ron J Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:29 AM (#5963537)
#7482. That's the point. Sweden's awkward to use as an example as they appear to have made a concerted effort to not get any useful data.

And for places that have done a decent job of containing things before opening, well there have been a couple of outbreaks, but it looks … an acceptable situation. You can deal with problems if they arise.

But exactly how does the US reach the conditions you're talking about for a successful reopening of schools? Never mind what prep work is being done to address the logistical issues the mayor raised.
   7486. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:38 AM (#5963538)
#7481 Serious question. You disagree with 7479. How do you square the “The science should not stand in the way of this.”

Is it as simple as it being an awkward restating of “The science is on our side here.” ?

their definition of "science" is not science and therefore, any invocation of "science being on our side" is null from the outset. crackpot theoreticians are on their side; anti-vaxxing conspiracy theorists are on their side; republican economists are on their side (thanks for your service, DOW 36000 guy); but the opinions of actual, respected scientists are not welcome in this white house.

   7487. always extremely 57i66135, but never enough Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:41 AM (#5963539)
But exactly how does the US reach the conditions you're talking about for a successful reopening of schools? Never mind what prep work is being done to address the logistical issues the mayor raised.

vote democrat.


republican politicians do not have the instincts or the political will to do what is necessary to get this outbreak under control. they need to be thrown out on their asses in november for america to have chance at getting back to "normal".
   7488. Ron J Posted: July 17, 2020 at 05:47 AM (#5963540)
7486/7487 Meaning no offence but it's not like anybody here could fail to predict your position. I was genuinely surprised by Dave's and would genuinely like to understand his position.
   7489. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:00 AM (#5963541)
But exactly how does the US reach the conditions you're talking about for a successful reopening of schools?


In fact I'd argue there's two separate questions: what's the measure by which we decide it's time to re-open, and how do you achieve that measure?

For the first, other countries have targeted no more than 50 new new cases per 100,000 population per week. That's obviously affected by testing quality and quantity, so an additional measure of % tests positive is needed.

The second is how do you reach those conditions. Sadly, I suspect the current answers of testing, partial lockdowns, and voluntary social distancing at the best we can get so far. The problem is that I don't think you can open schools and do that work simultaneously - you need to drive down the infection rate, then re-open.
   7490. Ron J Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:05 AM (#5963542)
77,300 new case in 24 hours. Previous high had been 67,800.

This is not a trend I like since I don't think there's any catch up involved.
   7491. BrianBrianson Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:35 AM (#5963546)
But exactly how does the US reach the conditions you're talking about for a successful reopening of schools? Never mind what prep work is being done to address the logistical issues the mayor raised.


Probably, it's not that helpful to talk about the US as a single entity for this?

But either you do real lockdowns, get everyone wearing masks, get hand sanitiser dispensers everywhere, get some actual template for financially supporting people so they don't turn up to work, then reopen schools and other stuff with some limitations to keep contact somewhat reduced until there's a vaccine. I can't say exactly how long lockdowns need to be, but if they're pretty strict, ~10 weeks is probably the upper limit. I wouldn't be surprised if it's actually much shorter. If you've done them well and your caseload is low, you might not need them anymore. New Jersey might be there, for instance, or Hawaii. Arizona appears not to be, etc. Probably with local flexibilities to address things as they come up or can be organised. My son's school, for instance, staggered arrival times so parents wouldn't interact so much picking up/dropping off the rugrats (it's sufficiently urban that everyone walks to school). Put up fences in the schoolyards so classes couldn't play together, limiting how many kids each kid interacted with, to limit the likelihood of multiclass outbreaks.

Or you say \"#### it, I don't give a ####\", and just let the virus burn through the population, and dig some mass graves. But if you're going that way, closing schools doesn't make much sense, because you're doing a lot of worse stuff. And without everyone pulling together ... well, that's probably this boat.

   7492. Ron J Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:41 AM (#5963547)
#7489 Pretty much where I stand.

Not that I think it's possible in the US right now, but I think it might be possible to reopen schools with a partial lockdown -- and masking.
   7493. Ron J Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:50 AM (#5963548)
#7491 Sadly it appear the plan in many places will be to hope for the best. This is a time I really hope I'm wrong either in course of action or results.

I don't think we'll see mass graves, but Texas has already started to prepare morgue trucks. (FEMA has sent 22) And that shocks me.
   7494. Zonk. Person. Man. Camera. TV. Posted: July 17, 2020 at 07:12 AM (#5963551)
That is simply not true - the full quote is quite clear. Pretending otherwise is pure spin, and quite costly to the credibility of those doing the spinning.


Clapper is right.

Your credibility can go from 15 to 0 really quickly. It’s going to disappear. One day it’s like a miracle—it will disappear. Especially now that we're in the warmer weather? It will just fade away.
   7495. BrianBrianson Posted: July 17, 2020 at 07:56 AM (#5963554)
Of course, mass graves was probably chosen a bit for effect, in practice, morgue trucks or the like are probably more likely (but, if hospitals get swamped in several places at once, I don't think it's totally impossible).

But, any effective response requires mass buy-in. Maybe not total, but the large majority of people. And institutional willingness to take the necessary steps. And people to believe they'll be backed up by those institutions. Without all of that ... well, if you can't stop it, you can only hope for the best. And how to get that in the US, at the moment, I don't know. I certainly can't do it.
   7496. bob gee Posted: July 17, 2020 at 08:52 AM (#5963560)
Chuck Woolery's (EDIT) Twitter account was deleted, unknown if it was by him or Twitter (EDIT). His son tested positive for Covid-19.

"To further clarify and add perspective, Covid-19 is real and it is here. My son tested positive for the virus, and I feel for of those suffering and especially for those who have lost loved ones" he tweeted.

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/507663-chuck-woolery-deletes-twitter-account-after-announcing-his-son-has-coronavirus

You can find the tweet Trump retweeted. I wish more people would take it seriously before they (or those they care about) get it.

   7497. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 08:53 AM (#5963562)

4. Much of the argument for Sweden, as I understand it, is premised on how much better they'll do in a second wave in the absence of a vaccine? But do we know enough about the length of COVID-19 immunity -- or the actual infection rate (esp. if the antibody test picks up other coronaviruses) to be sure?



I would assume that "antibody tests pick up other coronavirus antibodies" is something that's included when they measure the specificity (false positive rate) of the test. Now, I know there has been some cause to question whether the tests are as accurate as they claim -- this was an issue with the Santa Clara study, for example. They claimed the test they use had a 99.5% specificity (0.5% false positive rate) but others found it might be as high as 2 or 3%. Given that only ~4% of their sample tested positive, and the sample size was relatively small, the potential error there was huge.

But you also have to worry about false negatives. The NY state study I linked to the other day said their test had a sensitivity of 87.9% -- so basically a false negative rate of 12%.

If your population has no or very few cases, obviously such a test will have more false positives than false negatives. But at a certain point, false negatives become as big of an issue as false positives. Without knowing what test Sweden is using it's hard to say whether they're at that point, but if 6% of people there tested positive (per the latest round of testing), our best estimate is probably only a bit below that -- just with a fairly wide confidence interval.
   7498. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 08:54 AM (#5963563)


Chuck Woolery deleted his Twitter account.


Supposedly his account was suspended first for spreading misinformation.
   7499. bob gee Posted: July 17, 2020 at 08:59 AM (#5963565)
Thanks Inge, I just found that out and changed my original post. I'm surprised they would delete his account when many others far worse are given warnings. (Not including Trump; I understand the fine line they have to walk).
   7500. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 09:01 AM (#5963566)

#7481 Serious question. You disagree with 7479. How do you square the “The science should not stand in the way of this.”

Is it as simple as it being an awkward restating of “The science is on our side here.”?


She said "The science should not stand in the way of this" and then spoke another 5 or 6 sentences explaining why she thought the science supported reopening schools. So yeah, it's sort of an introductory statement to the broader thought. But more importantly, nowhere does she say that even if the science didn't support reopening schools, they would still want to do it. I mean, I think that's the case, since that's been the administration's position on reopening everything else. But it's not what she said and I don't understand why people keep doubling down on it.
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