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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 9761 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   7501. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 09:07 AM (#5963568)


Thanks Inge, I just found that out and changed my original post. I'm surprised they would delete his account when many others far worse are given warnings. (Not including Trump; I understand the fine line they have to walk).


I still think he deleted his account. If an account is merely suspended I believe you can still see that it exists. But the news reports said it was suspended first.

FWIW, it's not clear to me that his son tested positive *after* his post. Not sure why people keep saying that. It's possible his son tested positive a while back and had a mild case, and now Woolery thinks it's a hoax because "it's just the flu" or something like that.
   7502. Zonk paid more than $750 in taxes last paycheck Posted: July 17, 2020 at 09:13 AM (#5963571)
It sure seems like one easy way to get the country on better footing would be so much of the public would simply stop putting so much trust in game show hosts... Whether asking couples questions about whoopee, scoring Meatloaf against Blago in running a car wash, or buying a vowel - we could probably avoid a lot of problems by leaving them to their niche of.... expertise.
   7503. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 09:20 AM (#5963573)

i suspect that teachers unions are prepared to go to war with state and federal governments if they feel like their personnel is being thrown into the incinerator.

Yes, one of my best friends is a public school teacher in CT (as is her husband) -- she said their colleagues are generally very against reopening.
   7504. Tony S Posted: July 17, 2020 at 09:22 AM (#5963574)
I have several friends who are teachers. A couple I know teaches in neighboring Montgomery County. They're close enough to retirement that they'll both just walk away if the county makes them return to the classroom.

I feel sorry for those who don't have that luxury.
   7505. Lassus Posted: July 17, 2020 at 09:39 AM (#5963578)
and I don't understand why people keep doubling down on it.

Dave - you're very clear here, and I get and don't disagree with much of what you've said.

But people keep doubling down on it simply because she actually used those words. I mean, she said it, so.
   7506. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 09:43 AM (#5963579)

But exactly how does the US reach the conditions you're talking about for a successful reopening of schools? Never mind what prep work is being done to address the logistical issues the mayor raised.


I don't think "the US" does anything. I've been pretty consistent throughout all of this that one-size-fits-all policies don't make sense. For example, I don't think it makes sense for Florida to reopen schools now -- IMO they should have gone back to a strict lockdown across the board (only essential businesses open) at least a couple of weeks ago.

But some of the states in the Northeast? New York has been averaging less than 700 cases per day, with 1.2% of tests coming back positive for over a month now. MA has averaged less than 250 cases with a 2.2% positive rate. At the very least, you'd think that they could consider reopening schools outside of the major cities.

CT has had less than 100 cases per day with 0.9% positive tests. Vermont has been averaging fewer than 10 cases a day with 0.8% positive tests; Maine less than 20 daily cases at 1.3%. Hard for me to understand why it's safe for Germany or Denmark and not for those places. Yes, this begs the question -- is it actually safe for Germany and Denmark? I'm not sure, which is why I'm not pushing hard for reopening, just saying it's not crazy to be talking about it in places like the above and a few others.
   7507. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 09:49 AM (#5963580)

But people keep doubling down on it simply because she actually used those words. I mean, she said it, so.

Where did she use the words that we have to "exclude science from decisions about school openings" (Mayor Blomberg, #7458)?

Where did she use the words that "the science is on our side, but even if it weren't, we shouldn't let it get in the way" (tshipman, #7479)?

The Trump administration says and does enough bad stuff that people don't need to go inventing stuff they didn't say or do.
   7508. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 09:54 AM (#5963582)

But some of the states in the Northeast? New York has been averaging less than 700 cases per day, with 1.2% of tests coming back positive for over a month now. MA has averaged less than 250 cases with a 2.2% positive rate. At the very least, you'd think that they could consider reopening schools outside of the major cities.


Germany has 95 new cases yesterday -- with a population 4x that of New York's. Denmark had 49 cases yesterday, with a population similar that of MA. So the Northeast still has incidence rates between 10 and 28 times as high as that of northern Europe.
   7509. Ron J Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:00 AM (#5963583)
#7500 Fair enough. Thanks.
   7510. PreservedFish Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:03 AM (#5963585)
With the likelihood that schools will be either closed or totally pathetic (eg ~8 hours per week in-person, the rest online), we are now exploring creative options. Looking at private schools, homeschooling, engaging grandparents on a scheduled basis, and perhaps the most promising, forming a tiny homeschooling collective with 2-3 other families with children of similar ages. What are other parents of kids aged 5-18 doing?
   7511. Greg Pope Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:15 AM (#5963587)
I have several friends who are teachers. A couple I know teaches in neighboring Montgomery County. They're close enough to retirement that they'll both just walk away if the county makes them return to the classroom.

I feel sorry for those who don't have that luxury.


In my state, being close to retirement is the worst time to walk away. At retirement teachers get 75% of the last 4 years average salary. But if you don't reach full retirement age (in teaching years), you go down something like 1.2 percent each year. If it was just that, then walking away would be a reasonable decision. But teachers can retire as early as 55 if they make their years. If you have your full years then you collect your pension right away. If you don't then you can't collect until you're 60. So if a teacher was 54 and retired, they'd have to wait 6 years before getting their pension. Teaching just the one more year gets them their pension immediately.
   7512. Ron J Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:17 AM (#5963589)
#7507 Her own words were "Science should not stand in the way". At best that's an extremely awkward turn of phrase. Particularly when directly tied to the President's wants on the matter.

Having said that, I personally would have less of a problem if that "should" was a "does" (I mean it's wrong, but … a sort of acceptable wrong in my mind.)

And if the argument really comes down to one badly chosen phrase then, well I'm glad nobody's keeping score of my badly chosen words.
   7513. Greg Pope Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:18 AM (#5963590)
What are other parents of kids aged 5-18 doing?

My 2 college aged kids are heading to campus in the fall. I have one still in high school, but she's a senior this year and has already locked up everything she needs to do (grades, SAT, ACT, etc). She's also pretty self-motivated so overall remote learning isn't really a problem. I know that answer doesn't help you.

If my kids were younger I'd definitely consider a small collective like you said. Find parents you trust to be safe and home school. In my case I could easily handle any math or science that needed to be done, so I'd have something to offer.
   7514. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:26 AM (#5963591)
Germany has 95 new cases yesterday -- with a population 4x that of New York's.

They had 584 the day before yesterday, and 486 the day before that (and I think New York tests 3x as many people per capita as Germany).

Denmark had 49 cases yesterday, with a population similar that of MA. So the Northeast still has incidence rates between 10 and 28 times as high as that of northern Europe.

Assuming the 49 is not an outlier and they're testing similar numbers of people, then Denmark has 1/4 the incidence rate of MA, 1/5 the rate of NY, 40% of CT, and 70% of Vermont and Maine. Not sure how you get 10-28x.

So can Vermont and Maine reopen? How about Upstate NY, where the incidence rate was previously 1/4 that of the state overall (not sure whether it still is, but if so then it's about the same as Denmark).

What's the incidence level where discussion of reopening isn't crazy?
   7515. Lassus Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:36 AM (#5963593)
“When he says open, he means open and full, kids being able to attend each and every day at their school,” she said. “The science should not stand in the way of this.”

Dave - If you're going to scold (which, as I already said, I wasn't entirely against), at least don't ignore the words she did use. I'm sorry I didn't reprint them, but I did NOT use any of the words you wrote in #7507.
   7516. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:39 AM (#5963595)

What's the incidence level where discussion of reopening isn't crazy?


Find a school system that has reopened successfully. That's the rate.
   7517. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:41 AM (#5963596)
I posted this elsewhere... NC's governor announced school reopening guidelines on Tuesday. Schools can opt for full remote learning. If they opt for in-person then they have to stay below 50% of capacity in both classrooms and buses, and everyone has to wear masks, including elementary school kids. How they accomplish this is left to the local districts.

It's been interesting how different districts are handing this. Wake County has a "virtual academy" parents can sign up for, and everyone else will be put in groups that go one week on campus, two weeks off. Lots of districts are putting kids in separate groups and doing every other day or something like that. Durham County is having all high schoolers (except ESL and special needs) go 100% virtual and K-8 100% in person, and will handle the capacity issue by using the high school buildings for K-8. The idea here mainly that parents of K-8 kids can't work when their kids are at home, but parents of 9-12 can. It seems to me that a big issue for K-8 is that with classes all half the size they suddenly need twice as many K-8 teachers. No idea how that's going to work.
   7518. BrianBrianson Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:52 AM (#5963600)
Comparing case numbers between countries is like comparing apples to horses. Hospitalisations or deaths are not awful, but cases is rubbish.
   7519. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 11:02 AM (#5963603)
Comparing case numbers between countries is like comparing apples to horses. Hospitalisations or deaths are not awful, but cases is rubbish.

Sort of agree. I think when the positive test % is extremely low it's not unreasonable to make such a comparison. This is more of a hunch, although it does seem anecdotally that places with low percentages are missing many fewer cases than places with high percentages.

But if you're going to compare them, get the numbers right.
   7520. Ron J Posted: July 17, 2020 at 11:08 AM (#5963605)
#7518 Agreed. Current rate of positive tests also carries signal (and may be more useful than hospitalizations).
   7521. Howie Menckel Posted: July 17, 2020 at 11:14 AM (#5963606)
CNN's Jake Tapper corrected a colleague last night who repeated the false meme:

“If I could just say, Sanjay, I think she was just trying to say that the science shouldn’t stand in the way because the science is on our side. I don’t know that all of the science is on their side - and certainly, this White House, their respect for science knows bounds, let’s put it that way, but I think that’s what she was getting at.”

CNN's Jim Acosta belatedly corrected his tweet. the original got 30,000 likes - the correction got 700.

I remember stoutly defending Obama in this space in 2012 after he literally said, "If you've got a business, you didn't build that" - and that was deliberately taken out of context by right-wing media.

here's the context:

"There are a lot of wealthy, successful Americans who agree with me – because they want to give something back. They know they didn't – look, if you've been successful, you didn't get there on your own. You didn't get there on your own. I'm always struck by people who think, well, it must be because I was just so smart. There are a lot of smart people out there. It must be because I worked harder than everybody else. Let me tell you something – there are a whole bunch of hardworking people out there. (Applause.)

If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you've got a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen. The Internet didn't get invented on its own. Government research created the Internet so that all the companies could make money off the Internet.

The point is, is that when we succeed, we succeed because of our individual initiative, but also because we do things together. There are some things, just like fighting fires, we don't do on our own. I mean, imagine if everybody had their own fire service. That would be a hard way to organize fighting fires."

...........

gee, that's kinda different, don't ya think?

this is a fine chance for some posters to take a deep breath and maybe consider if they want to pour gasoline on the disinformation fires raging everywhere. why wallow in that mire?
   7522. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2020 at 11:22 AM (#5963607)
The CDC's reports for total deaths again added a larger than expected number. The total deaths officially recorded by the CDC this week (74,000) were the most since the coronavirus hit. That's certainly the result of lumpy data reporting, but also implies that the totals recorded over the last few weeks were lower than they should have been, and more people are starting to die again. (This post is all about total deaths, not deaths listed as coronavirus only).

Based on the latest info, and adjusting for lag, excess deaths are estimated to have hit a low point the last two weeks of June, bottoming out at 4000-6000 per week. As mentioned, it's hard to know well until more weeks have passed due to lag, and the lumpy data makes it even more challenging. It could be a bit higher than 6000, but probably not much lower than 4000, since the official count for the week ending 6/20 is already just a few hundred below the baseline without accounting for any lag.


week ending     deaths during week     new deaths reported during week

4/4             71780                    
4/11            78480                  64646
4/18            76165                  71141 
4/25            73114                  72223            
5/02            68362                  64640
5/09            65626                  67743
5/16            62963                  70767
5/23            59717                  64562
5/30            57009                  62142
6/06            55526                  69249
6/13            53681                  62896
6/20            51898                  57476
6/27            49033                  57996   
7/04            42219                  56582 (adjusting for July 4)
7/11            24723                  57090
7/18                                   74717

   7523. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2020 at 11:27 AM (#5963609)
this is a fine chance for some posters to take a deep breath and maybe consider if they want to pour gasoline on the disinformation fires raging everywhere. why wallow in that mire?
Agreed. We’ve now got Yankee Clappper on record as stating that people who spin lose credibility. Let’s just embrace that and be satisfied.
   7524. Eudoxus Posted: July 17, 2020 at 11:34 AM (#5963611)
I've got 20+ years experience homeschooling my kids (in the "schools don't live up to our academic standards" wing of homeschooling). If anyone has questions about getting started, I'm happy to see if I have any helpful advice.
   7525. JJ1986 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 11:40 AM (#5963612)
It seems optimistic to think that people who lie and spin constantly deserve every benefit of the doubt.
   7526. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 11:41 AM (#5963613)

Dave - If you're going to scold (which, as I already said, I wasn't entirely against), at least don't ignore the words she did use.


Sure, to be clear I am not defending her statement, which was still problematic -- I certainly don't think "the science" supports opening schools in states where 5+% of the population might be walking around with COVID right now, for example (if you think states with high positive testing rates are only catching 1/10 cases, then AZ and FL could very well be over 5% with SC, AL, GA and TX not that far behind. 1/10 might be low, although that's about what it was in NY and Spain early on based on the antibody testing).
   7527. tshipman Posted: July 17, 2020 at 12:06 PM (#5963615)
In the best case scenario, you have someone who is lying about what the evidence shows on school opening. And you guys want to parse her words down so that you can avoid the plain truth of what she was saying.

I mean, I guess if it makes you feel better.
   7528. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: July 17, 2020 at 12:22 PM (#5963618)
In case anyone is curious, the CDC projection and my projections of total and excess deaths are below.

The main differences are:

1) the CDC has to keep adjusting upward each week, because it's estimate of lag is always too low (easily seen in the most recent weeks, where excess deaths are always estimated to be negative at first, but will soon move into positive territory. For example, next week the CDC will estimate a positive number for the week ending 6/27). I attempt to account for this using the CDC's own past history of upward adjustments over the last few months. If the CDC is getting better at not lagging behind (possible but not at all guaranteed, especially considering they just dumped a bunch of lagged deaths on us the past week), then my estimates for recent weeks will be slightly too high.

2) I have a slightly lower baseline estimate, calculated from a projection of total deaths expected in 2020, corrected for an average flu season (this correction tends to be more important in February/March, which is why the numbers there differ from the CDC.The difference in May and June is mostly due to the CDC lag factor above). I'm not sure how the CDC determines their baseline. My numbers for February/March are more similar to the Yale group's numbers.


week     CDC    AuntB  CDC     AuntB
ending  Total   Total  excess  excess

22-Feb  58788   58941   -485     684
29-Feb  58952   59201     93    1223 
07-Mar  59072   59444    504    1973
14-Mar  58193   58533     -5    1567
21-Mar  59097   59415   1265    2996
28-Mar  63264   63497   5903    7535
04-Apr  72596   72918  15786   17238
11-Apr  79528   79823  23270   24500
18-Apr  77329   77650  21646   22738
25-Apr  74348   74754  19272   20157
02-May  69652   70222  15233   16026
09-May  67052   67793  13104   13985
16-May  64632   65539  11068   12159
23-May  61727   62771   8473    9734
30-May  59403   60715   6350    7803
06-Jun  57485   59896   4596    7135
13-Jun  56004   58793   3294    6137
20-Jun  54636   58271   1967    5726
27-Jun  50743   58083  -1770    5645
04-Jul  44013   58678  -8317    6349




   7529. Ron J Posted: July 17, 2020 at 12:41 PM (#5963625)
#7527 I think it's a mistake to believe somebody is lying. Lots of people turn probabilistic statements (It seems to be true that young kids get Covid-19 less frequently. It … might be true that they spread it less efficiently) into absolutes. Kids don't get Covid.

I don't admire somebody as incurious as that, but I'm not sure she's arguing in bad faith.

I can see why somebody might not want to give her the benefit of the doubt, but I'm shading towards Dave's position.
   7530. tshipman Posted: July 17, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5963626)
#7527 I think it's a mistake to believe somebody is lying. Lots of people turn probabilistic statements (It seems to be true that young kids get Covid-19 less frequently. It … might be true that they spread it less efficiently) into absolutes. Kids don't get Covid.


There maybe is an effect with kids under 10. Teenagers seem to spread it just the same as adults. The Trump admin is seizing on the results from very small children, projecting them to teenagers and saying the science backs them up.

That is a lie.
   7531. PreservedFish Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:07 PM (#5963633)
I've got 20+ years experience homeschooling my kids (in the "schools don't live up to our academic standards" wing of homeschooling). If anyone has questions about getting started, I'm happy to see if I have any helpful advice.


I would be happy to benefit from your experience. I think if you message me through the site, it'll get to my real email address.
   7532. Ron J Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:10 PM (#5963635)
#7530 No that is an RDP level logic error. It is possible to be spectacularly -- provably -- wrong in good faith. Not all bad arguments are lies.

You assume she's aware that teenagers spread Covid as efficiently as adults. I'd bet your house she doesn't. And that literally tens of millions (minimum) of people also believe this.

Again, I don't admire someone in her position who's incurious as to the underlying facts
   7533. Jay Z Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:13 PM (#5963637)
Honestly, this is going to be a lost year academically for most kids. So if your kids don't learn much, they will be in the same boat as other American kids. We probably won't adjust for it either, just shrug our shoulders and move on, but that doesn't change what is going to be in the classroom when all of this is done.
   7534. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:14 PM (#5963638)
7486/7487 Meaning no offence but it's not like anybody here could fail to predict your position. I was genuinely surprised by Dave's and would genuinely like to understand his position.
i don't know why you'd think i'd take offense at being told i'm right so often that it's not surprising anymore.


i know what you were asking, and i don't think it's an unreasonable question, but the fact remains that as long as this administration is in place, there are no plans, no policies, no checkpoints, no guidelines that can be successfully implemented because those concepts are foreign (not an unintended usage) to this administration. it's like asking a dog to juggle flaming chainsaws; it's not what they do and they're not capable of it.
I don't admire somebody as incurious as that, but I'm not sure she's arguing in bad faith.

the only possible way that her comments were not in bad faith is if she's a complete ####### moron. i don't think that's a more likely, or a more generous, explanation.
   7535. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:15 PM (#5963639)


In the best case scenario, you have someone who is lying about what the evidence shows on school opening. And you guys want to parse her words down so that you can avoid the plain truth of what she was saying.

Nope, I want to avoid parsing and just focus on the merits of what she actually said. Parsing is the opposite of that.

This is the last post I'll make and then I'll drop the point:

If you're the average person who doesn't follow COVID news nonstop, and the Trump administration spokesperson says "The president has said unmistakably that he wants schools to open…and when he says open, he means open and full, kids being able to attend each and every day at their school. The science should not stand in the way of this...The science is very clear on this, that — you know, for instance, you look at the JAMA Pediatrics study of 46 pediatric hospitals in North America that said the risk of critical illness from COVID is far less for children than that of seasonal flu. The science is on our side here, and we encourage for localities and states to just simply follow the science, open our schools,"

and the media reports that quote as "The science should not stand in the way of this,"

how are you going to react? Are you going to dig in to see whether the science actually supports them? Or are you going to conclude that the media is untrustworthy, while the Trump spokesperson appears to know what she's talking about?

   7536. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5963640)

There maybe is an effect with kids under 10. Teenagers seem to spread it just the same as adults.

What are you basing that on? Honest question.
   7537. Eudoxus Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:23 PM (#5963645)
Honestly, this is going to be a lost year academically for most kids. So if your kids don't learn much, they will be in the same boat as other American kids. We probably won't adjust for it either, just shrug our shoulders and move on, but that doesn't change what is going to be in the classroom when all of this is done.

Yes, this would be my starting point for any homeschooling advice: relax. Even a full year with no academic content whatsoever isn't going to be a disaster. And even in the best of times, the academic density of a typical school class just isn't that high. One-on-one tutoring can be very information-rich, and you'll probably get a standard year's worth of content in almost accidentally. I've definitely seen some real homeschooling academic disasters, but never in cases in which the parents were committed to the education of their kids.

All that said, if your goal for the year is to get your kid ready to compete for a spot on the USA team to the International Math Olympiad, I'm happy to give some guidance for that, too.
   7538. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:23 PM (#5963647)
Dave with respect to your question about Numbers for Texas in COVID tracking Project vs. Worldometer.

Covid Tracking project agrees with the Texas state dashboard, which was updated last at 3:40 pm yesterday.

Worldometer continues to update after that time. Karris, Hidalgo, Bexar, and Tarrant are usually not in before 5 pm.

Go to both sites, go to the Texas by county numbers, compare that to Harris county's own site. Go down the list and compare by counties, Worldometer to county dashboards.

As to your question: Yes, I think Maine and some of Upstate NY should reopen schools.But Under what conditions? How do you prepare for those conditions? If it takes more room, where do you fins it? If it takes more teachers, where do you find them? Do parents have an option?

   7539. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:24 PM (#5963648)
Of all the elements of pre-pandemic life I miss, using a public restroom is the strangest. I’ve never once derived joy from sitting on a disconcertingly damp toilet seat or hovering above a tangle of someone else’s waste. And yet, on several occasions over the past few months—including one humiliating afternoon that found me squatting behind a car in the parking lot of a sculpture garden—I’ve found myself longing for these essential amenities of public life. Without private, sanitary spaces to pee outside the home, our worlds dramatically contract.
...
To poop or deal with menstrual products, it may be worth it to hold out for a dedicated restroom. But urinating is a less demanding endeavor. For people with penises, it’s easy enough to make do behind a bush or a dumpster. For the rest of us, there are STPs.
...
On a recent road trip, in an effort to find a way to safely enjoy my summer without baring my butt on the side of I-95, I put four other STPs to the test. I limited my search to devices that were reusable and didn’t retain urine; I didn’t want to create unnecessary waste or carry around a bottle full of pee.

2020 america
The GoGirl added a light veneer of panic to my casual outdoor pee. The instructions encouraged me to press the funnel firmly to my body to make a “seal.” But when I tried to do that, it crumpled and folded under the pressure of my hands, making it impossible to effectively maintain the funnel’s shape. A compromised funnel meant I found myself with a bit of pee on my body instead of the grass.
...
“It has a lot of give” is not a thing I want to be able to say of the one thing standing between me and a leg covered in piss.
...
I had to fully pants myself at the edge of a parking lot at a New Jersey rest stop to get the GoGirl to work
...
I still needed to use toilet paper after peeing through the funnel, which left me holding two things with pee on them
The pStyle is easy to move and adjust, though people who aren’t used to peeing standing up may want to practice their end-of-stream finesse. Keep a wide stance.
...
Don’t plan on being discreet with this one—it’s 7.5 inches long, way too big for most pockets.
I didn’t get any pee on my pants while using the Tinkle Belle, but I almost got vomit on my shirt when I uttered its name aloud.
The benefits of the Tinkle Belle and the pStyle easily exceeded that threshold. Peeing in a parking lot will never feel dignified, but at least now I’ll get to keep my pants on

   7540. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5963649)
Honestly, this is going to be a lost year academically for most kids. So if your kids don't learn much, they will be in the same boat as other American kids. We probably won't adjust for it either, just shrug our shoulders and move on, but that doesn't change what is going to be in the classroom when all of this is done.


Honestly, this is going to be a lost year for most people in their professional, personal, and/or academic lives. Millions of people are out of work. Plenty of people remain employed but will lose out on opportunities that would have existed if not for the pandemic. How many birthday parties, holidays, dinners, graduations, weddings, and other events are we all going to collectively lose out on? On top of that, one lost year seems somewhat optimistic to me. It could very well be two or three lost years. We will collectively be a poorer society - economically, socially, and culturally - and that's before taking into account the final death toll. I have some hopes that new opportunities may be available at the end for those of us who survive.

To be clear, I'm not pushing to reopen businesses and society. I'm simply noting that we are going to lose years of our lives trying to save lives. It's the right trade-off, but it's still a trade-off.
   7541. tshipman Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:32 PM (#5963650)
and the media reports that quote as "The science should not stand in the way of this,"

how are you going to react? Are you going to dig in to see whether the science actually supports them? Or are you going to conclude that the media is untrustworthy, while the Trump spokesperson appears to know what she's talking about?


Which report most accurately describes the Trump admin's position?

The story friendly quote is considerably more accurate.
   7542. Srul Itza Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:36 PM (#5963651)
#7479 Actually I don't see any other way to parse what she said.


And that was your first mistake: trying to "parse" statements of a dissembling, somewhat incoherent spokeswoman for a wholly dishonest, utterly incoherent President.

   7543. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:43 PM (#5963653)
Mike Pence, 14 July: "And let me also say, CDC, from as early as March, issued guidance for — for safely operating schools and has been issuing additional guidance since then. And later this week, we anticipate that Dr. Redfield and the team at CDC will issue additional guidance for parents, for the operation of facilities. But to be very clear: We don’t want CDC guidance to be a reason why people don’t reopen their schools; that we’re going to respect whatever decisions are made on campuses like this, across the state of Louisiana."

Same two-step: the science supports and we don't want the science to be a reason ...

If the science is on your side, how can it prevent schools from opening? Really, I don't understand how those sentences work as a logical unit.
   7544. Srul Itza Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:44 PM (#5963654)
i think the reason why they're not actively out in front of the "preparations" going on is because they know they have veto power over all of this.


How do you know they aren't working? Have you canvassed every school district in America? There are an awful lot of them.

Out here (one school district for entire State and public worker unions immensely powerful), we are opening schools with some in class and some out, and some part time, and the Union and the State have come to agreement on social distancing in the classes. Of course, everything can change between now and then, as we have a spike in cases that still leaves us in a better position than most anywhere else.
   7545. BrianBrianson Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:50 PM (#5963655)

As to your question: Yes, I think Maine and some of Upstate NY should reopen schools.But Under what conditions? How do you prepare for those conditions? If it takes more room, where do you fins it? If it takes more teachers, where do you find them? Do parents have an option?


These are probably something that should mostly be left to individual schools, since they're all a little different, and what the communities can/can't support will differ a bit too (like the point about bussing made earlier, that kind of stuff). It'll take some (STIMULUS!) money.

Man, I hate how much this thread is making me praise Tory premiers, but Ontario provincialising school funding so that each board gets the same money, rather than local taxes meaning poor communities have no money for schools is ... probably a good idea.
   7546. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:51 PM (#5963656)
Really, I don't understand how those sentences work as a logical unit.


The inability of high officials to speak and write clearly is something particularly glaring in this administration.
   7547. Zonk paid more than $750 in taxes last paycheck Posted: July 17, 2020 at 01:54 PM (#5963658)
Agreed. We’ve now got Yankee Clappper on record as stating that people who spin lose credibility. Let’s just embrace that and be satisfied.


Eh...

I've got Starship on record and they still sound like ####.
   7548. PreservedFish Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:01 PM (#5963660)
Yes, this would be my starting point for any homeschooling advice: relax. Even a full year with no academic content whatsoever isn't going to be a disaster. And even in the best of times, the academic density of a typical school class just isn't that high. One-on-one tutoring can be very information-rich, and you'll probably get a standard year's worth of content in almost accidentally. I've definitely seen some real homeschooling academic disasters, but never in cases in which the parents were committed to the education of their kids.

All that said, if your goal for the year is to get your kid ready to compete for a spot on the USA team to the International Math Olympiad, I'm happy to give some guidance for that, too.


We already "homeschooled" in the spring, if you ignore the 60-90 minutes per week my daughter was in Zoom class, and we were very hands off. It was practically summer vacation.

But after 6 months of summer vacation mode, it'll be time for at least a hint of structure. I don't imagine doing more than an hour of pure academic work per day, and maybe not even that. But I'd like to do something. And it might be nice to structure the chores, art projects, cooking, exercise etc that we also do that is also a clear part of homeschooling.
   7549. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:09 PM (#5963662)
But after 6 months of summer vacation mode, it's time for at least a hint of structure. I don't imagine doing more than an hour of pure academic work per day, and maybe not even that. But I'd like to do something.

focus on the application of information, rather than the collection of it.

botany. (grow plants and log the results)
caligraphy. (hand-eye coordination, plus ooh, fancy)
simpsons plots (put a tooth in some cola, and then block out the sun with a giant metal shade)
baking (scale recipes up and down for bonus points)
model kit building (more hand-eye coordination)


   7550. Greg K Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:12 PM (#5963664)
history (sit quietly for 70 hours and listen to a podcast on 17th century England)
   7551. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:16 PM (#5963665)
These are probably something that should mostly be left to individual schools, since they're all a little different, and what the communities can/can't support will differ a bit too (like the point about bussing made earlier, that kind of stuff). It'll take some (STIMULUS!) money.


Not ragging on you in particular Brian, but as someone in education who has watched institutions deal with the problems, the idea that I'm sure it works and they'll figure it out is wishing away the problem not addressing it.
   7552. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:20 PM (#5963666)
But after 6 months of summer vacation mode, it'll be time for at least a hint of structure. I don't imagine doing more than an hour of pure academic work per day, and maybe not even that. But I'd like to do something.


Fish -- have you looked at what's available on some of the home-school sites?
   7553. PreservedFish Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:23 PM (#5963667)
No. Not at all. Don't know where to begin.
   7554. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:23 PM (#5963668)
Fish -- have you looked at what's available on some of the home-school sites?
"from 1 to 6000: a complete history of earth science"
   7555. PreservedFish Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:30 PM (#5963673)
I'm definitely ready to watch a lot of The Simpsons, though.
   7556. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:33 PM (#5963676)
Eh...

I've got Starship on record and they still sound like ####.
Well yeah. Of course. The additional warmth and sonic texture of vinyl does nothing for a band like Starship, who recorded their greatest work in the early digital era. CD is the format that allows Starship to shine in all their crisp, processed glory.
   7557. Eudoxus Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:34 PM (#5963677)
"from 1 to 6000: a complete history of earth science"

Sure, there's tons of that. But there's also lots of great stuff. A couple of starting recommendations. For math, the online problem system Alcumus has thousands of great problems and a (kind of) fun built-in quest system. (Via the best-thing-on-the-internet-for-math Art of Problem Solving site.) For science, the dozens of TOPS units offer a wide variety of nicely done hands-on experiment-oriented introductions to science, designed to use common household items.

I think in general the crucial elements of a good education are (i) do hard math problems and (ii) read good literature. Spend 30 minutes a day on one and 60 minutes a day on the other, and everything else will take care of itself.
   7558. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:38 PM (#5963678)
Do your kids, or could they, have any interest in baseball? The early Bill James Abstracts have a lot of good examples of critical thinking, problem solving with data, etc.
   7559. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:39 PM (#5963679)
Fish, Check your email.
   7560. bunyon Posted: July 17, 2020 at 02:54 PM (#5963686)
Speaking as a professional educator (higher ed science), I fully endorse telling parents to relax. Kids under 13 or so just make sure they read at or above level and can handle math. Over summers as a kid, my folks got me a set of World Books and I had to do one report a day. I forget the summer, maybe 8 or 9. And I think it was just to keep me busy and out of their hair. But it made me do a little work and construct arguments, draw conclusions, etc.

Do that and you're fine. At that age, the important thing is just to learn to do some work. It probably would be a good time to get them into a foreign language if you're so inclined.

This all gets harder at older ages if you don't have the background to go hard in a given area. But there are plenty of resources.

What I heard from friends is that a lot of teachers just dumped a ton of homework on the students and that strikes me as exactly the wrong thing to do. Make it interesting, keep them engaged for a few hours a day and chill.
   7561. Srul Itza Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:01 PM (#5963688)
Honestly, this is going to be a lost year academically for most kids.


How much of what you learned in High School, do you use today? How much of what you learned in High School do you remember?

How much of what you "learned" in High School turned out to be wrong?

Now take it back to Middle School?

Reading, Writing, simple arithmetic, some history and civics -- this can be taught by parents. I was reading and doing simple math before I got to kindergarten.

The issue is not a lost year academically, as much as it may be a lost year of socialization -- turning the little monsters into citizens.

Frankly, it comes down to the parents and the environment they create. If you can inspire your kids to read, and see to it that it is not just crap that they read, they will do okay.
   7562. PreservedFish Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:04 PM (#5963689)
What I heard from friends is that a lot of teachers just dumped a ton of homework on the students and that strikes me as exactly the wrong thing to do. Make it interesting, keep them engaged for a few hours a day and chill.


Exactly what happened to us. The teachers were trying hard in a new situation, so I don't blame them. But they just unloaded a truck of worksheets with zero guidance on what to do. We let our daughter pick and choose for a while, and then just gave up on it entirely. It would have been much better to get a very small amount of work, with clear expectations on actually finishing it.
   7563. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:04 PM (#5963690)
How much of what you learned in High School, do you use today? How much of what you learned in High School do you remember?

How much of what you "learned" in High School turned out to be wrong?
When I think back on all the crap I learned in high school, it's a wonder I can think at all.
   7564. Srul Itza Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:13 PM (#5963694)
Really, I don't understand how those sentences work as a logical unit.


You have to start by understanding the Mike Pence has never worked as a logical unit.
   7565. Srul Itza Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:16 PM (#5963695)
The inability of high officials to speak and write clearly is something particularly glaring in this administration.


It is a natural outgrowth of the inability of high officials to think clearly -- or at all -- in this administration
   7566. Srul Itza Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5963698)
When I think back on all the crap I learned in high school, it's a wonder I can think at all.


I came thisclose to using that quote.
   7567. BrianBrianson Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:26 PM (#5963704)
Not ragging on you in particular Brian, but as someone in education who has watched institutions deal with the problems, the idea that I'm sure it works and they'll figure it out is wishing away the problem not addressing it.


"Education", of course, covers a lot of things, but a lot of it is like everything, "it depends". My son's school was phased open and it seemed to go pretty well. Education (especially primary and secondary) has a bad habit of giving people mandates and responsibilities without giving them resources or authority - that of course is not condusive to good outcomes here. But one size fits all solutions probably aren't wise.

   7568. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5963710)
How much of what you learned in High School do you remember?


I have a particularly good memory for such things -- I can vividly remember entire lessons from Junior High, High School and college.
   7569. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5963711)

I think in general the crucial elements of a good education are (i) do hard math problems and (ii) read good literature. Spend 30 minutes a day on one and 60 minutes a day on the other, and everything else will take care of itself.


wow. For a one sentence summary of education, this is a pretty good starting point.

******

I think this board did a pretty good job of recovering from the initial groans and knee jerk reactions to actually discussing some of the issues that Howie brought at an honest intellectual level.

I could probably do without reading about his personal moments of glory on the congressional softball fields, but I dont think he's a troll. If someone really is a troll, then sure I can see being dismissive of what they are saying. But then I think proper primate protocol would be to call them and have a vote or a roll call of some sort to say "X" is a troll can we just put him on ignore?

As for Betsy Devos, I think her comment Re: science shouldnt stand in the way, is another example of dealing with stuff in an intellectually honest way. I think its quite possible she just used a clumsy choice of words. I can see in her own addled way that she meant that the science is on their side



She very clearly is not saying science supports re-opening in the fall. She is saying that the science doesn't matter.


YOu know this is just absolute bul ####. The notion that there's only one possible way to read the Devos quote is just stoopid.

I get that the normal way "should not stand in the way" comes up in a context where you are bringing up possible obstacles to a course of action. And generally these obstacles are opposing your plan of action. So yeah, reading it quickly, it sounds like she's poo pooing science. And given the administrations known predilections, its entirely possible that Trump or his minions may have actually discussed that behind closed doors: that science will not stand in the way of our stoopid agenda.

So yeah, she's probably reiterating some phrase she heard behind closed doors. God knows she seems like a total doosh and she obviously goes on TV without any sort of preparation and starts parroting talking points without even addressing anything. We saw that performance last weekend.

BUt given the rest of her comments, its clear she's trying to say the science is on their side. Akward turn of phrase but there's nothing inherent in the phrase "should not stand in the way" that mandates that it be read as poo pooing science.

Consider something like when Oppenheimer was worried the A bomb might catch the oxygen in the atmosphere on fire and so incinerate the world or a vast portion thereof...

"The issue of catching atmospheric oxygen on fire should not stand in the way of deploying the A bomb vs Japan."

Awkward? Yes. But still an alternative way to use the phrase.


******

Im really surprised no one has mentioned, that I saw, where the TRump administration is now going to prevent hospitals from reporting Covid data to the CDC.

Trumps doing his own 30 for 30 show here and no one's going to comment on that?

He really is acting like a dictator or narcissist or whatever. What could possibly go wrong with that plan, Trump? It's not like concerned officials aren't going to attempt to work around that. It's not like the media isnt going to sieze on that one and show how little you care about people.

And it's not like 100,000 Covid deaths are just going to go away and no one will notice, right?

And it's not like you're not going to piss off thousands of dedicated professionals who will continue to think even less of you and work to deliberately undermine you. No that will never happen.

Also Georgia's about to blow up, as someone mentioned in passing yesterday.
   7570. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:39 PM (#5963715)
Sunday, she's repeating what Mike Pence said, just about word for word, a day or two earlier.
I know I circulated the CDC notice in some venues. But it'd be wrong to imply anything about it, right?

Do you have a source for the Oppenheimer quote?
   7571. Hysterical & Useless Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5963720)
It probably would be a good time to get them into a foreign language if you're so inclined.

The earlier, the better. The American insistence on delaying foreign language instruction until middle school (or even letter) virtually guarantees that the non-immigrant population will remain monolingual.

no one has mentioned, that I saw, where the TRump administration is now going to prevent hospitals from reporting Covid data to the CDC.

Sunday, pretty sure that was noted here Tuesday or Wednesday, because when my wife saw the headline in the Times yesterday morning I already knew about it. And this is where I get all my COVID news.
   7572. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:52 PM (#5963721)
I dont have time to scroll back and find it, but i think one person was saying their school is proposing going on some sort of schedule where certain grades show up two days a week and another grade shows up in other days.

Isnt this sort of half measure really dangerous? For instance if an outbreak occurs then you don't even have time to warn/quarantine the other half of kids where the outbreak didnt occur Cause you've basically got them overlapping schedules to such an extent that if you do manage to trace an outbreak, the response time is so lagging that you're probably going to infect the other half of kids as well.

ANd/or you're not going to be able to trace the source of the outbreak again because you've got one batch of kids who at in the cafeteria on wed and another batch on thurs. And who knows where it started.

IT seems far more prudent to schedule it as two weeks on/two weeks off or something like that. Haravard/Princeton I guess are going for a freshman/junior one semester and senior/soph another.

Either way, I dont think opening colleges is at all prudent, given that students are coming from all regions of the country. Hi schools maybe in a few very safe areas, I guess.
   7573. Greg Pope Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:15 PM (#5963728)
How much of what you learned in High School, do you use today? How much of what you learned in High School do you remember?

How much of what you "learned" in High School turned out to be wrong?


I think this is missing something. Sure, I probably don't remember all that much from my history or literature classes. But the math and physics were the building blocks for my engineering degree. And, more importantly, taking all of the high school classes helped me decide what I liked and what I didn't. I liked math, physics, and chemistry. I didn't like literature or history*. I mean, just because I don't remember learning long division doesn't mean that it wasn't important.

*I very much enjoy reading and learning history now.
   7574. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:18 PM (#5963730)

Do you have a source for the Oppenheimer quote?


I cant recall if it was Oppy or Teller. It should be easy to google, the story goes that Oppy (or Teller or whomever) was dreadfully worried about this. So he wrote a letter direct to FDR telling him his concerns. FDR calls Los Alamos and Teller tells him, yeah not to worry that wont happen.

I forget which principals form which part.
   7575. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:21 PM (#5963732)

Sunday, pretty sure that was noted here Tuesday or Wednesday


oh sorry, Ive been playing catchup in this sub, so I probably missed a few days.
   7576. Jay Z Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:22 PM (#5963733)
I dont have time to scroll back and find it, but i think one person was saying their school is proposing going on some sort of schedule where certain grades show up two days a week and another grade shows up in other days.

Isnt this sort of half measure really dangerous? For instance if an outbreak occurs then you don't even have time to warn/quarantine the other half of kids where the outbreak didnt occur Cause you've basically got them overlapping schedules to such an extent that if you do manage to trace an outbreak, the response time is so lagging that you're probably going to infect the other half of kids as well.

ANd/or you're not going to be able to trace the source of the outbreak again because you've got one batch of kids who at in the cafeteria on wed and another batch on thurs. And who knows where it started.


I am guessing the cafeterias will not be used by anyone.

The schedules are usually Group A Monday Tuesday, Wednesday no one, Group B Thursday Friday. The two groups will not mix, and you've got at least a day off between the two. (Don't know if they are worried about actual classroom transmission, on objects and stuff... I do not think that is a big risk of infection with COVID-19 if it is at all.)

You've got the teacher in common, the teacher could transmit between one group and another.

If you do two weeks on two weeks off, that makes your "off time" less valuable. With two days on, five days off, you have a more limited time frame together, then five days off, someone gets sick during those five days, you shut down, but maybe you missed getting infected. With a lot longer block of time together, that seems harder.

But it all depends on COVID-19 and the variability of infections. It might not matter.
   7577. Hysterical & Useless Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:30 PM (#5963734)
How much of what you learned in High School, do you use today? How much of what you learned in High School do you remember?

How much of what you "learned" in High School turned out to be wrong?

I think this is missing something.


Most of elementary/secondary education is about:
1) instilling basics (3Rs)
2) exposing kids to different subject areas so they can (maybe) find something that interests them
3) teaching them to show up on time

with number 3 generally being considered the most important. Those clocks won't punch themselves!
   7578. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:31 PM (#5963735)

Sunday, she's repeating what Mike Pence said, just about word for word, a day or two earlier.


She repeats a lot of stuff. Like a parrot.

She's annoying.
   7579. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 17, 2020 at 04:45 PM (#5963742)
Im really surprised no one has mentioned, that I saw, where the TRump administration is now going to prevent hospitals from reporting Covid data to the CDC.
That’s another instance of faulty reporting. Hospitals had been required to report Covid info to both the Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) and the Center for Disease Control (CDC). The Administration just simplified the reporting, requiring a single-submission to HHS, while continuing the CDC’s full access to the data. No change, other than reducing unnecessary bureaucratic duplication, although most of the coverage has tried mightily to obscure that point.
   7580. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 05:44 PM (#5963751)
Dave with respect to your question about Numbers for Texas in COVID tracking Project vs. Worldometer.

Covid Tracking project agrees with the Texas state dashboard, which was updated last at 3:40 pm yesterday.

Worldometer continues to update after that time. Karris, Hidalgo, Bexar, and Tarrant are usually not in before 5 pm.

Go to both sites, go to the Texas by county numbers, compare that to Harris county's own site. Go down the list and compare by counties, Worldometer to county dashboards.



Thanks Blomberg. I honestly didn't know Worldometers did county level data so I appreciate the heads-up. I got your email as well.

I continue to use COVID Tracking Project in large part because you can download the entire historical data every day. I have various charts and things that build off that feed which is very helpful. They don't include "probable" deaths if they aren't reported by the state, so Worldometers has a bit higher totals for, say, New York (where the city reports "probables" and state doesn't). But I actually appreciate the consistency.

As to your question: Yes, I think Maine and some of Upstate NY should reopen schools.But Under what conditions? How do you prepare for those conditions? If it takes more room, where do you fins it? If it takes more teachers, where do you find them? Do parents have an option?

Those are all good questions to which I don't have the answers. But important things that should be answered before deciding whether to reopen in any given district. Ultimately, like I said, I'm not pushing for reopening -- I just think decisions whether to reopen schools should be driven by the actual data, and not be one-size-fits-all or dogmatic on either side.

--------------------------------------------

One point not schools-related. Arizona, which saw its weekly positive testing rate rising significantly throughout June, rolled back some of its reopenings on June 30, shutting down movie theaters, bars, gyms, and water parks and further limiting the size of gatherings (although they still permit gatherings up to 50). Their testing rate continued to increase until July 10, peaking at 27.6%, but has been declining since then, to 22.8% yesterday. Weekly deaths have continued to rise, which is not surprising given the lag.

This is some further support for the notion that open vs. locked down is not binary, and that the specifics of what's open and what isn't, along with other factors like personal behavior, actually make a difference.
   7581. sunday silence (again) Posted: July 17, 2020 at 05:50 PM (#5963753)
Bloomberg: here is part of the story as Bethe relates it and Teller with concerns:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/bethe-teller-trinity-and-the-end-of-earth/

I know Ive read at some pt there was a letter sent to Roosevelt.

Wikipedia mentions something like that:

Teller also raised the speculative possibility that an atomic bomb might "ignite" the atmosphere because of a hypothetical fusion reaction of nitrogen nuclei.[note 1] Bethe calculated that it could not happen,[33] and a report co-authored by Teller showed that "no self-propagating chain of nuclear reactions is likely to be started."[34] In Serber's account, Oppenheimer mentioned the possibility of this scenario to Arthur Compton, who "didn't have enough sense to shut up about it. It somehow got into a document that went to Washington" and was "never laid to rest".[note 2]
   7582. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:00 PM (#5963754)
trigger warning: republican death cult.
The report states that localities in the red zone should tell residents to “wear a mask at all times outside the home and maintain physical distance,” close all gyms and bars, and ban gatherings involving ten or more individuals. Many of those states have done the exact opposite, rushing to reopen shuttered businesses, institutions, and public spaces. Some of those states, such as California, are now backpedaling; others are doubling down, like Georger, where Governor Brian Kemp issued an executive order banning local mask-wearing mandates and exempting schools from bans on gatherings. Kemp’s administration is also suing Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms over the city’s mask mandate.

The report’s assessment of Georger is blunt: “Disease trends are moving in the wrong direction in Georger with record numbers of new cases occurring in urban, suburban and rural areas. Test positivity continues to increase. The number of tests has increased, but more tests are needed.”
...
Confusion has reigned as the federal government continues to punt responsibility for dealing with the brunt of the outbreak to states and send wildly mixed and self-contradictory guidance.
..
Meanwhile, Donald Trump has proclaimed that the U.S. will never shut down again, sidelined the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and politicized its research, promoted conspiracy theories that doctors and the CDC are lying about the outbreak to hurt him politically, and is still moving forward with a reckless plan demanding schools fully reopen with or without fully implementing CDC guidance on how to do so safely.

   7583. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:06 PM (#5963755)
Dave, I'm glad you pushed me on the question as well, because I knew there were discrepancies but never sat down to discover why.

I completely agree on opening schools where possible but find the logistics daunting when we get beyond kids in a room. Colleges have it easier, but still are doing poorly, mostly (I think) not because of stakeholder or political pressure, but from not wanting to admit that there are no available good answers and acknowledging limits.

Lockdown's never (or very rarely) been total in this country, and I think it would be less yet if people behaved better. I was not impressed by the NYT graphic today about how likely it is that five people in close proximity would all be masked.
   7584. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:10 PM (#5963757)
I am guessing the cafeterias will not be used by anyone.


That's a serious problem in a lot of inner-city schools. You may recall it was a major reason why DeBlasio wanted to keep schools open -- and caught hell for it.
   7585. Laser Man Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:16 PM (#5963759)
That's a serious problem in a lot of inner-city schools.
Schools would still serve food, but it would probably be a carry-out service where students pick up the food and eat at their desk, or in some other space where they can be physically distanced.
   7586. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:26 PM (#5963763)
The Trump administration is rebuffing House Democrats' effort to hear testimony from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield on safely reopening schools during the coronavirus pandemic.
House Education and Labor Committee Chairman Bobby Scott (D-Va.) sent Redfield a letter last week asking him or a CDC designee to testify at a hearing on how K-12 public schools can reopen for in-person classroom instruction this fall. But on Friday, Scott said his panel had been informed that the Trump administration would not allow CDC testimony at the hearing planned for next week.
...
A senior administration official said that Redfield has already testified before Congress at least four times in the last few months.

The Hill

But a spokesman for the House Education and Labor Committee said the panel had requested testimony from any CDC official, not necessarily Redfield.
"We asked for anyone at CDC who could testify at the hearing. The invite was not for Dr. Redfield or no one," the official said.
House Education and Labor Chairman Bobby Scott said the testimony from CDC officials is critical to understanding how scientists would manage the reopening of US schools.

CNN

One possible interpretation of earlier words.
   7587. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:30 PM (#5963765)
I cant recall if it was Oppy or Teller. It should be easy to google, the story goes that Oppy (or Teller or whomever) was dreadfully worried about this. So he wrote a letter direct to FDR telling him his concerns. FDR calls Los Alamos and Teller tells him, yeah not to worry that wont happen.


sunday, I saw an account in Scientific American where Teller raised the question, but it was quickly scientifically answered.
Teller at Los Alamos put a very good calculator on this problem, [Emil] Konopinski, who was an expert on weak interactors, and Konopinski together with [inaudible] showed that it was incredibly impossible to set the hydrogen, to set the atmosphere on fire. They wrote one or two very good papers on it, and that put the question really at rest. They showed in great detail why it is impossible. But, of course, it spooked [Compton]. Well, let me first say one other thing: Fermi, of course, didn't believe that this was possible, but just to relieve the tension at the Los Alamos [Trinity] test [on July 16, 1945], he said, "Now, let's make a bet whether the atmosphere will be set on fire by this test." [laughter] And I think maybe a few people took that bet. But, for instance, in Compton's mind it was not set to rest. He didn't see my calculations. He even less saw Konopinski’s much better calculations, so it was still spooking in his mind when he gave an interview at some point, and so it got into the open literature, and people are still excited about it.


ok. just saw your second response; thanks!
   7588. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:33 PM (#5963766)
One possible interpretation of earlier words.
if you want scientists to agree with you, all you need to do is gag the ones that don't.
   7589. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:36 PM (#5963767)
is this a good time to up tsar bomba, which had such a large nuclear plume that it broke through the earth's atmosphere when it was tested?
   7590. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:47 PM (#5963768)
The Missouri Christian summer camp Kanakuk, which is now in its 94th year of operation, likes to declare every year its “Best Summer Ever.” This year, that title will be tough to claim. Camp sessions opened on May 30 with an impressive roster of new safety measures in place, including new low-contact drop-off procedures, new air filtration systems, daily temperature checks, quarantine protocols, and more. But on June 26, the camp notified parents by email that there were two positive COVID-19 cases at K-2, one of its six camp locations. Over the next few days, the number of diagnoses climbed to 82. K-2 shut down, and parents from 10 states scrambled to pick up their children early.

About 6.5 million young people will participate in overnight or day camps this summer, the American Camp Association has estimated. That’s down from 26 million in a typical summer.
...
campers were assembled in a single large group to receive the news about the diagnoses, furthering their exposure. She said kids gathered again that same night for a “mosh-pit-style” dance party

When Kanakuk canceled all KampOut sessions this summer, citing safety concerns, she decided to send her children to Kanakuk’s sleep-away camp for the first time: “For us, the risk of COVID-19 versus the chance of them having more time with Jesus, it was hands down: the chance to have more of Jesus.”
“I think everything they’re trying to do is awesome. It’s just impossible as a sleep-away camp to make it safe,” said Jason Newland, a Missouri pediatric infectious disease specialist who has sent his three children to Kanakuk multiple times over the past decade. This year, he said, it was an easy decision to keep them home. “To me, once they have 82 cases in K-2, you’re just asking for the same thing happening in the other campuses,” he said. “Why don’t we just be safe and stop everything?” Instead, the camp’s other locations will apparently remain open for the rest of the summer.

kamp kunakak kids kontrakt kovid, k****
   7591. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 06:58 PM (#5963770)
K-2 is for teenagers aged 13-18, 2 & 4 week stays. Inauspicious.
   7592. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 17, 2020 at 07:11 PM (#5963774)
My sister lives near Penn State. The big summer thing is the Arts Festival in July which attracts crafts people from up and down the East Coast, dozens of entertainers, and probably the equivalent of a football Saturday's worth of attendees for an extended weekend. Of course it was cancelled, but apparently many of the students, who have to rent apartments year round, decided that they had had enough of Mom and Dad (and likely vice versa) and flocked back to town last weekend (a month early). She says the local paper is just full of pictures of students waiting in line to get into the reduced capacity bars, with no distancing nor masks.

This week, the governor restricted bars that don't serve food, mainly driven by spikes in Pittsburgh determined (however that was) to be driven by bars.

Look for a spike in Centre County, PA coming in the next week or two.
   7593. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 07:17 PM (#5963778)
What sort of semester is PSU planning for?
   7594. PreservedFish Posted: July 17, 2020 at 07:25 PM (#5963779)
I highly recommend the This American Life episode on drinking at Penn State. One of the interviewees, a guy that lives near Frat Row, has a great quote in there about how before moving to his home on the party circuit he didn't understand the depths of human depravity.
   7595. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 08:39 PM (#5963791)
Is that the one where the woman narrates fratboys peeing outside her house at night? I remember that story because I lived through something similar but not that bad ... and no one ever called in-town Houston "Happy Valley" to my knowledge.
   7596. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 08:42 PM (#5963793)
It sure seems like one easy way to get the country on better footing would be so much of the public would simply stop putting so much trust in game show hosts

Exception for Alex Trebek? He's Canadian, after al.
   7597. Howie Menckel Posted: July 17, 2020 at 08:49 PM (#5963795)
I have two nieces who graduated from Penn State in recent years - both a year early.

neither knows if a football is blown up or stuffed, as the old line goes. one of them had the dorm closest to the stadium, which was not a draw for her.

they eventually got into attending the "white out" home games, for socializing.

they weren't drinkers before arriving, and they didn't turn into ones while attending.

one majored in hospitality and the other in nursing - apparently two of their best majors.

it is interesting how varied campus experiences can be.

I knew a sportswriter for years who, whenever a group went out, would stick to Diet Cokes.

not so unusual in that environment - except that usually it was a recovering fellow making that wise choice.

after many years, this guy tells me that he had never tried alcohol. ok.

then I remembered his alma mater: Marquette. In Milwaukee.

kind of amazing - and I loved it.

nothing wrong with people marching to their own drummers - wherever they may be.
   7598. catomi01 Posted: July 17, 2020 at 09:44 PM (#5963802)
nothing wrong with people marching to their own drummers - wherever they may be.


I was a drummer in college...which is incidentally where I met most of my drinking companions...Band Nerd parties in college can get loud.
   7599. PreservedFish Posted: July 17, 2020 at 09:58 PM (#5963803)
Is that the one where the woman narrates fratboys peeing outside her house at night?


I think so, but I think it had more to do with finding condoms and tampons and vomit and such on her lawn.
   7600. Greg K Posted: July 17, 2020 at 09:59 PM (#5963804)
I thought I knew what university binge drinking was. And then I spent some time with students in England...
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