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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 9761 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   7601. bunyon Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:09 PM (#5963805)
It’s easy to crap on businesses (including universities) but shutting down for the fall will put many of them out of business. There is clearly no financial help coming so rolling the dice you’ll get lucky with virus beats certain financial ruin. If our society wants everyone to shut down we have to pay them. We won’t. We value money over lives. It’s that simple.
   7602. RJ in TO Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:14 PM (#5963806)
I thought I knew what university binge drinking was. And then I spent some time with students in England...
It's not technically binge drinking if you never stop.
   7603. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:21 PM (#5963807)
If our society wants everyone to shut down we have to pay them. We won’t. We value money over lives. It’s that simple.


Not everyone, but your point stands. I discovered today that instead of a desk copy for a text I'm teaching, I'll get a one-year subscription to an etext. Publisher operations seem to be from off-site or not happening.

Texas came out with new rules today for schools:

After initially announcing stricter measures limiting online schooling for students earlier this month, the Texas Education Agency has
released new parameters allowing students more education-from-home opportunities.
Per HoustonChronicle.com's Jacob Carpenter, Texas public school districts are now allowed to begin the coming school year with as many as eight weeks of online-only instruction.
Additionally, high school students with Internet access will be allowed to complete online coursework for up to 60 percent of each grading period.


Some ISDs that won't have to worry cover the last three counties in the state without a positive case:
Loving County, pop. 134, area 677 sq mi. School district closed when student population was 2 in 1970. More ghost towns (3)than populated settlements (1).
King County, pop. 296 in 913 sq mi, part of a district that serves 100 students in classes and 750 students virtually in normal years.
Borden County, pop. 641 in 906 sq. mi., 227 students and it puts up its 20 its teachers in Board-owned housing.
   7604. Jay Z Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:46 PM (#5963813)
It’s easy to crap on businesses (including universities) but shutting down for the fall will put many of them out of business. There is clearly no financial help coming so rolling the dice you’ll get lucky with virus beats certain financial ruin. If our society wants everyone to shut down we have to pay them. We won’t. We value money over lives. It’s that simple.


Even New Zealand has this issue. They have no tourism now. If those jobs are gone for good, what do those people do?

It is all going to be a balancing act between the mortality of the virus, economics, and emotional well being. Humans are social creatures, and shuttering schools, churches, all sports leagues big and small, all indoor bars and restaurants for good is a huge price. And we don't know the mortality of the virus yet. No percentages on the permanent damage said to occur, no real knowledge about whether you can get it again, how many would, what impact. If there aren't other solutions, and herd immunity in the long run makes COVID-19 have a waning, occasional impact, eventually I think we will live with that.
   7605. BrianBrianson Posted: July 18, 2020 at 01:06 AM (#5963822)
Well, Kiwis also aren't going anywhere, so they should still have domestic tourism. So, presumably more domestic tourism, though I don't know which way the net money flow goes.

We're resuming tourism in Europe. We'll see how it goes, but everyone I've talked to is taking their vacations in France/Italy (well, one's going to do the two weeks in isolation to go see family in Brazil, but that's highly exceptional). I'm thinking about Luxembourg or the Netherlands, since they're close and I've never been, but maybe it's wisest to just stay in France and go to Bretagne or Bordeaux or something, in case the situation does shift. Our R_0 in Paris is apparently very close to 1 at the moment, so they may indeed tighten down on us a bit.
   7606. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 18, 2020 at 01:08 AM (#5963824)
How much of what you learned in High School, do you use today? How much of what you learned in High School do you remember?


1. Typing - That was the best skill I learned in school, and it was on an electric typewriter. It's amazing how much quicker I can type than my friend who insists he's "fast" with the hunt-and-peck method.
2. Public speaking - I learned the basics for writing a speech and how to deliver it without sounding monotonous. It helps when I'm telling a story to my friends/family, and when I'm reading a book to my daughter.
3. Math - Being able to do calculations in my head by learning shortcuts and methods to speed it up or simplify it. People seem surprised when I can make fairly quick and accurate estimates for large numbers (like volume calculations, or interest calculations).

I enjoyed taking other courses that helped me become more well rounded (accounting, film studies, home economics). I did well in English and history and similar subjects as well, but that's mostly because I loved to read.

I was (and still am) just terrible at foreign languages (even though my dad was a bilingual tour guide when he was in high school). Even though I was able to waltz through physics, calculus, algebra, and geometry, for some reason the world of chemistry just did not click for me (and I don't remember even the basics like "moles" or "valence bonds").
   7607. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 01:31 AM (#5963825)
only one significant lesson. so much of what I studied was science and tech, but I drifted to the humanities.
   7608. Howie Menckel Posted: July 18, 2020 at 01:55 AM (#5963826)
"It's amazing how much quicker I can type than my friend who insists he's "fast" with the hunt-and-peck method"

no doubt.

but in the long run, will you be Sandy Koufax to your friend's Phil Niekro?

they were born - and remain alive - only 3 1/2 years apart.

fun fact, Niekro won 302 games after Koufax retired - hunt-and-pecking all the while.

   7609. manchestermets Posted: July 18, 2020 at 08:49 AM (#5963838)
I thought I knew what university binge drinking was. And then I spent some time with students in England...


You were in Nottingham right? I assume you did a Campus 14 (12 Halls of Residence bars, the main student union bar and the Sports centre bar) at some point. These are now banned by the university.
   7610. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 18, 2020 at 09:50 AM (#5963843)
Godammit, when are these governors going to be getting their apologies?

After the Recent Surge in Coronavirus Cases, Deaths Are Now Rising Too

Public health experts have pointed to a few factors that help explain why the death count was initially flat. Treatment has improved and young people, who are less likely to die from Covid-19, make up a larger share of new cases.

Additionally, more widespread testing means cases are caught sooner, on average. That means that the lag between diagnosis and death would be longer than in March, when tests were in critically short supply.

That lag may have come to an end last week, as the number of new deaths began to rise. Many of the states that reopened early are the ones seeing the biggest increases, while New York, the country’s hardest-hit city, has seen a 64 percent drop since June 1. ...


Oh, and the states with the highest positive test rates?

Arizona 25%
Florida 19%
South Carolina 18%
Mississippi 17%
Texas 16%
Alabama 16%
Georgia 15%


(Hmmmm, what do all of those states have in common? Asking for a friend.)
   7611. base ball chick Posted: July 18, 2020 at 10:16 AM (#5963845)
good morning gentlemen, hope all yall staying safe. hope barry's parents are doing better

Hysterical & Useless Posted: July 17, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5963720)

The American insistence on delaying foreign language instruction until middle school (or even letter) virtually guarantees that the non-immigrant population will remain monolingual.


- that's the point. why would you want REAL MURKINS speaking any language besides english?

Most of elementary/secondary education is about:
1) instilling basics (3Rs)


- yes. and not all of us got any idea how to teach them beyond - what is this letter and what is this number

2) exposing kids to different subject areas so they can (maybe) find something that interests them


- well, maybe. but i don't think real too many elem kidz get real too interested in anything skool. especially the poorer skools without music or art or computers or anything else

3) teaching them to show up on time


- YESSSSS
get up on time, go to bed on time and get there on time. which is how life really is. because one bad thing in all this covid no skool stuff is most parents letting kidz of all ages stay up all night on phones/games and then lettin them sleep all day to make up for it and that don't work at all when you got a job

- you left out (4) - learning how to work with other people. of course, most schools very segregated by ethnicity and $$$, so you don't learn to work with people who are different than you are and this is not exactly what leads to any sort of equal opportunity. you get a world which is like the ML front offices - a bunch of rich White males from rich White skoolz running everything

as for mrs devos - she spent the last 3 years trying to get public skoolz shut down and turn what's left into private religious indoctrination camps and suddenly she and the religious nuts want kidz back in skool? plz. this is all about having people to watch kidz so as the poorer ones can go back to work and risking their lives so as the economy will get better and trumpie-poo can puff out chest and crow about The Economy cuz poor lives don't matter a bit

- and really, the accurate question about the virus ans opening up is - what civilian casualty rate is going to be "acceptable"

as long as it appears to be just "culling the herd" meaning mostly the non-white, the obese, sick and the elderly, like, so what, like i said months ago, we got 330 million people. we could get rid of 5-10% without blinking an eye. and i bet this is where we are gonna go.

you get all the numbers to be sent to the govt before the CDC or anywheres else, you lie about them, you let the poor and old die at home BEFORE they get to the hospital, don't let them get an autopsy (VERY against the law in tejas) the "numbers" look better (oh yeah - you don't count the numbers in the prisons/jails because they mostly poor and non-white so who cares), we all say it's not so bad, we go back to the penn state way of life, and no probs.

oh yeah, let's not forget - we only count (some of the) deaths. we don't pay no nevermind to all the people who survive but ain't all the way back because they don't matter. we also ignore any covid positive in kids because almost none of them die and we don't therefore care if they happen to end up not what they was before they got infected. we also don't care if they give it to adults at skool because they too are disposable people
   7612. base ball chick Posted: July 18, 2020 at 10:37 AM (#5963848)
i forgot

some of the elem schoolz (also middle skoolz and high skools) here in yewstin are what they call "magnet" skoolz which means if your kidz are not zoned to that skool, you can apply to get your kidz sent there and a couple of them are foreign language magnet skools, meaning your kidz start learning different languages from first grade. so guess which kidz's parents apply them to magnet skoools and guess which (most) kidz are in the magnet programs?

and remember that the kidz gotta be bussed, which means you gotta have an adult get them to the bus stop and be there to get them back. not that this is different if your kidz go to the zoned skool... the days of your kidz walking to skool are LONG gone

but as i have noticed, if the kidz are not forced to speak the foreign language with adults, they don't really learn it at all even if they get an A in class. the only exception being the few kidz who are actually into being able to speak different languages. and at least with american english, if you don't start speaking it with other american english speaking people by age 7 at the latest, you are never really fluent and you always got at least a trace of accent. not sure how it is with other languages
   7613. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 18, 2020 at 10:58 AM (#5963849)
as long as it appears to be just "culling the herd" meaning mostly the non-white, the obese, sick and the elderly, like, so what, like i said months ago, we got 330 million people. we could get rid of 5-10% without blinking an eye. and i bet this is where we are gonna go.

If it’s any consolation, bbc, whites are dying of COVID at a slightly higher rate than minorities in Texas (relative to their portion of the population).
   7614. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 18, 2020 at 11:00 AM (#5963850)
Meanwhile, I am in a doctor’s waiting room right now and there is a woman here wearing her mask like a neck guard. It’s infuriating and I don’t know why the nurses don’t tell her to put it on properly.
   7615. base ball chick Posted: July 18, 2020 at 11:31 AM (#5963852)
Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 18, 2020 at 10:58 AM (#5963849)

If it’s any consolation, bbc, whites are dying of COVID at a slightly higher rate than minorities in Texas (relative to their portion of the population)


- not a consolation at all
i don't want to see White people dying of this neither.

every time we see a story on people who died of covid, it is almost always a Black person or Hispanic person and the news keeps saying that covid is attacking a higher percentage of non-Whites. and Whites are actually a minority population here in mah state - somewheres between 40-45%

every time we see/hear some kind of anti-mask group thing, it is almost always White people. like some rich thin White mask-free lady said to the atlanta paper (story when the state reopened) i'm not worried about catching the virus. we're not the demographic.

in mah not so umble opinyin, theres a lot of that kind of thinking goin on around here

anyone who won't wear a mask in a doctor's office where the sick people ARE, is stupid and selfish and the nurses SHOULD be telling her to put her mask on. i've gone with Husband to see his doctor and they won't let people in who are not wearing a mask and they have a sign saying that a mask must be worn over mouth and nose at all times. the doctor and nurses were all wearing N95s and face shields and the minute Husband and i left the room they were in there with spray and cleaning stuff and Husband only had his mask off for the minute it took the doctor to look at his nose and throat
   7616. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 18, 2020 at 12:16 PM (#5963856)
That’s another instance of faulty reporting. Hospitals had been required to report Covid info to both the Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) and the Center for Disease Control (CDC). The Administration just simplified the reporting, requiring a single-submission to HHS, while continuing the CDC’s full access to the data. No change, other than reducing unnecessary bureaucratic duplication, although most of the coverage has tried mightily to obscure that point.
What was that thing you were just saying about spinning, Clapper?
   7617. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5963860)
Nice county-by-county state of play, unpublished (for some reason) report distributed this week by the White House coronavirus task force,


QUESTION: Who are the people who are saying NO SCHOOLS MUST OPEN?

I know who says all schools must open (even if we then say they don't mean it), but I've never met this phantom sibling of the PERPETUAL LOCKDOWN contingernt.

Anyone want to put up>?
   7618. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 18, 2020 at 12:54 PM (#5963861)
- not a consolation at all
i don't want to see White people dying of this neither.


I know, I just meant that hopefully people will start taking it seriously since it seems to be an equal opportunity killer.

In my experience in NYC, the people not wearing masks fall in all demographic groups.

The doctor’s office I was in was not one where you would expect to find particularly at-risk folks (it wasn’t an oncologist or something like that), but still in an indoor waiting area where the ability to social distance is limited, people should definitely be wearing their masks.
   7619. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 18, 2020 at 01:37 PM (#5963862)
That’s another instance of faulty reporting. Hospitals had been required to report Covid info to both the Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) and the Center for Disease Control (CDC). The Administration just simplified the reporting, requiring a single-submission to HHS, while continuing the CDC’s full access to the data. No change, other than reducing unnecessary bureaucratic duplication, although most of the coverage has tried mightily to obscure that point.

What was that thing you were just saying about spinning, Clapper?
Is there a single substantive aspect of my post that you dispute, Face? If you, or others, really think duplicative reporting requirements are a good idea, why don’t you repeat every post you make in another thread in the Primer Dugout? It would make about as much sense as requiring hospitals to submit covid data to HHS and separately to one of its sub-agencies, the CDC. Funny that the excerpt posted here, and much of the original reporting, leaves the impression that the CDC was cut out of the picture, but its access to the data remains unchanged. Apparently the inaccurate depiction of the HHS data collection policies doesn’t bother Face, it’s correct information that doesn’t fit his preferred narrative that he finds problematic.
   7620. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 18, 2020 at 01:42 PM (#5963864)
Nah, it’s more that 99 percent of your non-baseball posts are near-verbatim recitations of Republican talking points. It’s useful, though - means I don’t have to go to Breitbart or whatever to find out what the latest are.
   7621. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 18, 2020 at 01:56 PM (#5963866)
#7620, so no disagreement about the facts, you’re just upset that those facts may put the GOP or the President in a better light? Quite telling.
   7622. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 02:10 PM (#5963868)
The doctor’s office I was in was not one where you would expect to find particularly at-risk folks (it wasn’t an oncologist or something like that), but still in an indoor waiting area where the ability to social distance is limited, people should definitely be wearing their masks.


I really don't understand the lack of strict enforcement unless it's a locale where you get the Liberty or (and?) Death crowd. Heard the same thing the other week from a friend of my cousin's on Facebook. As for demographic of non-maskers, I find it to skew slightly white (other than the many homeless) but last week in HEB I saw 100% compliance. I'm hoping for that again as I head out.

Texas yesterday announced fewer than 10,000 new cases for the first time in a while (please be a trend), though a sickening 162 deaths. 27 posted late yesterday in Hidalgo County (pop. 775,000), after 22 the day before and 66 (with backfill, I hope) the day before that.
Harlingen is a border county, one county west of the Gulf, where the state finally founded a med school in 2013.
   7623. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 18, 2020 at 02:26 PM (#5963869)
Meanwhile, I am in a doctor’s waiting room right now and there is a woman here wearing her mask like a neck guard. It’s infuriating and I don’t know why the nurses don’t tell her to put it on properly.
As I’ve said before, those complying with most social distancing precautions may not be in the best position to assess how many people aren’t, but it does appear that mask discipline may be slipping, based on my recent forays to the grocery store and other necessary businesses. On Monday I saw maybe half a dozen people with noses uncovered - and it didn’t look like slippage - and about the same number with masks on their chin, which seems designed just to allow someone to quickly cover up if confronted. That’s probably double or triple the ‘mask violations’ spotted on comparable trips in previous weeks. And no, these weren’t older white males, quite the opposite. More people were using decorative bandannas as a fashion statement, even though they reportedly provide less protection. Granted, it was 92° that day, but masks are required indoors in Northern Virginia where I’m located.
   7624. PreservedFish Posted: July 18, 2020 at 02:35 PM (#5963870)
99 percent of your non-baseball posts are near-verbatim recitations of Republican talking points.


That's not fair. YC has a finely cultivated rhetorical style.
   7625. SoSH U at work Posted: July 18, 2020 at 02:39 PM (#5963871)
So if what you're saying is 100 percent accurate Claps, then hospitals have been burdened with this dual reporting scheme for four months, and the Trump administration is just getting around to streamlining the process. That doesn't strike me as a good light, though I suppose that if we can't actually flatten a curve, we can at least grade on one.
   7626. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 18, 2020 at 02:50 PM (#5963872)
So if what you're saying is 100 percent accurate Claps, then hospitals have been burdened with this dual reporting scheme for four months, and the Trump administration is just getting around to streamlining the process. That doesn't strike me as a good light, though I suppose that if we can't actually flatten a curve, we can at least grade on one.
what's more plausible:

-- the trump administration collected too much data.
-- they didn't like what the CDC was telling them and moved to cut them out of the decision making process.
   7627. PreservedFish Posted: July 18, 2020 at 03:11 PM (#5963875)
I haven't yet seen the reporting that supports Clapper's contentions, but even if he's right, it sure seems like changing horses midstream. There are tons of reports that hospitals and states are at the very least bothered by such change at this inopportune moment, with the crest of an epidemic wave breaking over much of the nation. At the moment I'm setting aside fears that the data will actually be manipulated. Instead I'll assume that this is just another awkward and petty but not necessarily evil result of the White House's natural tendency towards autocracy, and/or Trump's personal animus towards the CDC.
   7628. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 18, 2020 at 03:36 PM (#5963878)
I haven't yet seen the reporting that supports Clapper's contentions, but even if he's right, it sure seems like changing horses midstream. There are tons of reports that hospitals and states are at the very least bothered by such change at this inopportune moment, with the crest of an epidemic wave breaking over much of the nation. At the moment I'm setting aside fears that the data will actually be manipulated. Instead I'll assume that this is just another awkward and petty but not necessarily evil result of the White House's natural tendency towards autocracy, and/or Trump's personal animus towards the CDC.
If you haven’t seen anything supporting my contentions, that says something about the reporting, no? And maybe your efforts to find out the truth? Because the statement of the CDC Director isn’t hard to find:
As many of you know, CDC operates a system called the National Health Safety Network. This is an important surveillance system in our nation’s hospitals, which focuses on fighting antibiotic resistance.

In April, HHS leaders, with input from CDC, created a new system, called HHS Protect, that allows us to combine data through systems like NHSN, as well as other public and private sources. The data reported from hospitals that went into HHS Protect either came through the NHSN, directly to HHS Protect from the states, or through a system called TeleTracking.

What we have now asked is that, going forward, states provide data from hospitals directly through the TeleTracking system or directly to the HHS Protect system.

First, this reduces the reporting burden—it reduces confusion and duplication of reporting. Streamlining reporting enables us to distribute scarce resources using the best possible data.

TeleTracking also provides rapid ways to update the type of data we are collecting—such as adding, for instance, input fields on what kind of treatments are being used. In order to meet this need for flexible data gathering, CDC agreed that we needed to remove NHSN from the collection process, in order to streamline reporting.

This streamlining will allow the NHSN to increase its focus on another critical area for COVID-19, the nursing home and long-term care facility reporting needs—which, as we know, is also an absolutely central element of our pandemic response. All elements of our public health system are being stretched right now, and streamlining the hospital reporting system allows NHSN to concentrate its COVID-19 activity on the high-priority area of protecting the vulnerable in nursing homes.

To accomplish this, we have not changed the data ecosystem; we have merely streamlined the data collection mechanism for hospitals on the frontlines.

On the back end, whether collected by the CDC’s system, the third party vendor, or the states, the data ends up aggregated in the HHS Protect platform, where the CDC team and other federal response teams still have access to this information for their use in the response. Additionally, state and local public health departments also have access to this information in HHS Protect which allows them to access and use the same information that the federal response teams are using.

No one is taking access or data away from CDC.

I want to emphasize that having the fastest possible access to this data, as well as easy ways to analyze it, has very real benefits to our public health response. When we need to collect insights about emerging symptoms, for instance, which we are constantly learning more about, we can do that incredibly rapidly through TeleTracking.

This has no effect on CDC’s ability to use this data and continue churning out the daily data, the MMWRs, and the guidance we publish. In fact, the new infrastructure we have now actually provides our CDC team with easier access to a much broader variety of data sets than they would have without it.
Read the whole thing yourself. It should be obvious that much of the reporting distorted the streamlined reporting requirements in an attempt to put the Administration in a bad light, which many here were happy to ape, and now seemingly resist acknowledging that they were wrong. Quite similar to the coverage of the White House Press Secretary’s remarks on school openings, eh?
   7629. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 03:51 PM (#5963882)
State health leaders, public health experts and hospital officials warn that an abrupt change in how the Trump administration requires them to report coronavirus data will increase the burden on facilities already strained by the pandemic and could impede the distribution of critical medicines.
The opposition came after the Department of Health and Human Services notified governors and hospital leaders this week that it was changing the protocol for sending the federal government daily information about coronavirus patients, supplies and bed capacity. Administration officials say that replacing a data-collection system run by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would streamline reporting and lead to more efficient distribution of therapeutics, testing supplies and protective gear.
Officials also suggested that states might want to get the National Guard to assist hospitals — an idea the industry has condemned.

link

also
also
also
   7630. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 03:55 PM (#5963883)
To some, the change could have some merits. They say the CDC’s data system was built for tracking hospital-acquired pneumonias and urinary tract infections, for instance, and it wasn’t perfect for keeping up with coronavirus data.
The HHS system, however, was built specifically to track the Covid-19 pandemic and it will compile far more data than just what’s currently being produced by hospitals. Plus, hospitals were already reporting similar data through the TeleTracking system. The federal government has been using those reports to determine each state’s allocation of Gilead’s Covid-19 drug, remdesivir.
But there are major drawbacks, too: Hospitals are being asked to learn a new data system as they’re struggling to keep up with a raging pandemic. Streams of data that the CDC was making available to researchers and the public have suddenly been cut off, exacerbating fears that the Trump administration is trying to stomp out any evidence that the pandemic is worse than ever.


Statnews -- unsurprisingly the most comprehensive anlaysis I've seen

I'd probably be more confident in CDC opinions if their officials were available for questioning.
   7631. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:01 PM (#5963885)
This is interesting: Doctor argues that the mystery pediatric covid-19 response is simply codvid-19. Not that I have competence to judge, of course

(source: Statnews)
   7632. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5963887)
So if what you're saying is 100 percent accurate Claps, then hospitals have been burdened with this dual reporting scheme for four months, and the Trump administration is just getting around to streamlining the process. That doesn't strike me as a good light, though I suppose that if we can't actually flatten a curve, we can at least grade on one
You seem to be missing the point. HHS developed an improved data collection system, rolled it out in April, and after sufficient testing & experience with the new system eliminated the older less useful data collection effort. That’s how such things are supposed to work. Again, read the material linked in #7628, and ask yourself why the reporting put the info in such a different light.
   7633. SoSH U at work Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:19 PM (#5963894)
You seem to be missing the point.


It would have been easier to get that point had you brought it up one page back, rather than what you actually wrote (which is what I based my comment on).

Again, read the material linked in #7628, and ask yourself why the reporting put the info in such a different light.


I did. And then I read the link in 7630, which shows that many in public health have concerns about this rollout and what it will mean. Why hasn't that concern been reflected in your reporting?

   7634. baxter Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:25 PM (#5963897)
Re 7630

thanks for the link, but I did not understand in the following paragraph, the language "although this finding..." (which is a link):

Kids tend to have prominent gastrointestinal symptoms. They tend to have fewer respiratory symptoms (likely due to fewer of the cellular particles that facilitate viral entry into cells of the respiratory tract) and higher likelihood of low blood pressure, although this finding is strongly correlated with severe disease in adults as well. They tend to have decreased heart pumping function during Covid-19, drawing similarities with other pediatric inflammatory conditions. And the older the child, the more the disease resembles the inflammatory syndrome witnessed in adults.

--
I did not understand what correlated with severe disease in adults (I also read the study linked in that phrase). It reads to me that low blood pressure correlates with severe disease in adults. If not that, then which phenomenon?

Thank you in advance to anyone who is interested.
   7635. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:28 PM (#5963898)
And then I read the link in 7630, which shows that many in public health have concerns about this rollout and what it will mean. Why hasn't that concern been reflected in your reporting?
That linked article concedes that the new covid-specific system provides far more and better data, but may require a bit more work. That doesn’t actually seem like a real “public health concern”. Any system that provides more data usually requires more work by someone.
   7636. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:36 PM (#5963899)
   7637. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:41 PM (#5963901)
Canada won't let the Toronto Blue Jays play in Toronto (or anywhere else in Canada)
good.

when the government threatened players with a 750,000 fine for breaking quarantine, that was a pretty strong sign that they didn't want this to happen. it's better to make that kind of statement explicit, rather than just hoping people are smart enough to take the hint.



now, what are they doing about the NHL? because that will be no less of a shitshow.
   7638. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:43 PM (#5963903)
this is a reasonable response to the pandemic.

stromtrooping into state capitals with rocket launchers and assault rifles is not.
   7639. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:45 PM (#5963904)
baxter, the use of "higher" is a bit confusing but I take it to mean that children are more likely to have low bp than are adults, except in cases of severe adult disease. So children on the whole have a greater incidence of low bp from COVID-19 than adults on the whole.
   7640. RJ in TO Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:47 PM (#5963906)
when the government threatened players with a 750,000 fine for breaking quarantine, that was a pretty strong sign that they didn't want this to happen.
My understanding is that the government didn't threaten the players specifically, but rather this would be the maximum fine allowed under the Quarantine Act, and it was important to make it clear to the players and the Jays organization what they were signing up for.
   7641. baxter Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:51 PM (#5963907)
7639 Thank you; I did find the language confusing.
   7642. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 04:51 PM (#5963908)
Canada won't let the Toronto Blue Jays play in Toronto (or anywhere else in Canada)

The new border war. Can we reclassify players as merchandise and get them in under NAFTA?


baxter -- in grad school I had at least one colleague who wrote the articles published by doctors at the med school. He did enough to be listed as an author.
   7643. Ron J Posted: July 18, 2020 at 05:13 PM (#5963910)
7637 NHL might be different in that it's a hub setup.

Here's what the minister making the decision said:

In a statement Saturday, Marco Mendicino, the Minister of Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship, said, "unlike pre-season training, regular season games would require repeated cross-border travel of Blue Jays players and staff, as well as opponent teams into and out of Canada."

"Of particular concern," he continued, "the Toronto Blue Jays would be required to play in locations where the risk of virus transmission remains high."

"Based on the best-available public health advice, we have concluded the cross-border travel required for MLB regular season play would not adequately protect Canadians’ health and safety," said Mendicino. "As a result, Canada will not be issuing a National Interest Exemption for the MLB’s regular season at this time." (Door left open for the playoffs)

On a semi-related note, was just talking with a friend who lives in Arizona. She was tested 11 days ago and still does not have her test result.
   7644. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: July 18, 2020 at 05:17 PM (#5963912)
That linked article concedes that the new covid-specific system provides far more and better data, but may require a bit more work. That doesn’t actually seem like a real “public health concern”. Any system that provides more data usually requires more work by someone.


So, you're saying they got better information, and developed a better procedure? Interesting. Here's Trump speaking to Chris Wallace yesterday on the subject of mask wearing:

"In the beginning, Fauci said 'Don't wear a mask.' Our great Surgeon General said 'Don't wear a mask.' Now all of a sudden, they want everyone to wear a mask? It's ridiculous!"
   7645. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: July 18, 2020 at 05:21 PM (#5963913)
On a semi-related note, was just talking with a friend who lives in Arizona. She was tested 11 days ago and still does not have her test result.


My son tested Monday, after waiting a week to get the test. He had a possible exposure on Jul 4. No results yet. Suppose he gets a positive result on Monday? What do we do with that information? He has been essentially quarantined for 2 weeks and has never had symptoms.
   7646. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 18, 2020 at 05:24 PM (#5963915)
said Mendicino. "As a result, Canada will not be issuing a National Interest Exemption for the MLB’s regular season at this time." (Door left open for the playoffs)


On the off chance that everyone in the AL East is below .500 and a 0-0 record gives Toronto the division crown?
   7647. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: July 18, 2020 at 05:38 PM (#5963917)
I've only gotten through 2 posts and **already** this thread is magic:


7601. bunyon Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:09 PM (#5963805)
It’s easy to crap on businesses (including universities) but shutting down for the fall will put many of them out of business. There is clearly no financial help coming so rolling the dice you’ll get lucky with virus beats certain financial ruin. If our society wants everyone to shut down we have to pay them. We won’t. We value money over lives. It’s that simple.

7602. RJ in TO Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:14 PM (#5963806)
I thought I knew what university binge drinking was. And then I spent some time with students in England...

It's not technically binge drinking if you never stop.
   7648. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: July 18, 2020 at 05:40 PM (#5963918)
stromtrooping into state capitals with rocket launchers and assault rifles is not.


Which state capitals are we talking about?
   7649. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 05:48 PM (#5963919)
the designation of Portland, OR, is incorrect, the description of the action is not.
The action is surprisingly out of keeping with the creed of the States' Rights party that's cheering it on.
   7650. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 05:49 PM (#5963920)
That's not fair. YC has a finely cultivated rhetorical style.


So did YR.
   7651. Random Transaction Generator Posted: July 18, 2020 at 05:52 PM (#5963922)
now, what are they doing about the NHL? because that will be no less of a shitshow.


They are doing a two-city bubble (Toronto and Edmonton) to handle the eastern and western conference playoffs.
So there won't be any inter-city travel until the Stanley Cup finals, and players/teams are not allowed to leave the bubbles.
   7652. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: July 18, 2020 at 05:55 PM (#5963923)
The action is surprisingly out of keeping with the creed of the States' Rights party that's cheering it on.


Surprisingly?

Have you been paying attention to *that* party for the last 30+ years.

States >>>>>>>>>>> Coastal Gubmint liberals >>>>>>>>>>>> cities and towns.

I might have the last two reversed.
   7653. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: July 18, 2020 at 05:58 PM (#5963924)
That's not fair. YC has a finely cultivated rhetorical style.


No he doesn't ... he vomits Fox News talking points.
   7654. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 18, 2020 at 06:05 PM (#5963926)
Marco Rubio is honoring John Lewis by making his profile picture a photo of him with Elijah Cummings pic.twitter.com/NKa40nRAEr

— Rob Flaherty (@Rob_Flaherty) July 18, 2020


   7655. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: July 18, 2020 at 06:05 PM (#5963927)
Even New Zealand has this issue. They have no tourism now. If those jobs are gone for good, what do those people do?


Cannibalism?

It's a win-win situation!

(well, lose-win situation ...)

((But it *does* solve **two** problems at once!))
   7656. Howie Menckel Posted: July 18, 2020 at 06:06 PM (#5963928)
yes, there is little comparison of what the NHL plans and what MLB plans.

now, there's no guarantee that the NHL version works, either - but it's a far different approach.
   7657. Greg K Posted: July 18, 2020 at 06:10 PM (#5963929)
Maybe the Canadian NHL teams can play amongst themselves and award the Stanley Cup to the best of the bunch. Like in the good old days before they let foreigners into the league!
   7658. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 06:38 PM (#5963933)
Surprisingly?

at the risk of drilling a rabbit hole, abortion has been the great exception (and, back when GHWB was VP, national drinking age). Otherwise, medicaid expansion, ACA, school standards, voting rights.civil rights enforrcements, the backlash against Ruby Ridge and Waco, all were carried out in the name of states rights. this is a new phase/overreach that goes beyond and around federalizing the national guard (e/g/ the Altgeld-Cleveland controversy. We're back to the Red scare and the Portland Soviet.

Not to deny your point that ALEC has been focused on state sovereignty against both cities and the feds.
   7659. Laser Man Posted: July 18, 2020 at 06:47 PM (#5963936)
At least two states, Missouri and Idaho, had trouble with the new TeleTracking system, and were unable to submit their hospitalization data on Friday. Here is Missouri's statement (Note: Not a blue state)

Please note, due to the abrupt change in data measures and the reporting platform issued by the White House on Monday, July 13, and effective Wednesday, July 15, MHA and the State of Missouri will be unable to access critical hospitalization data during the transition. While we are working to collect interim data, situational awareness will be limited. It is uncertain whether we will be able to produce all data included in this regional dashboard on Wednesday, July 22.

Missouri Hospital Association
   7660. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 06:47 PM (#5963937)
ARIZONA: 147 reported deaths today. 30 above its previous daily high
   7661. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 06:54 PM (#5963938)
Idaho also isn't a blue state & recently its numbers haven't been small potatoes.
   7662. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 07:31 PM (#5963945)
This NASEM report on school repoening is interesting for its honesty about the cost of the detail it goes into.
The emphasis is on grades K-5.
The report says the cost of implementing these COVID-19 precautions will be very high, totaling approximately $1.8 million for a school district with eight school buildings and around 3,200 students, and that staffing is mlikely to be a major challenge -- they're proposing cutting class sizes by more than half (10/cohort). It's not clear to me that staffing cost is factored into the estimate.

--
Another study (link w/in link)suggests that 10-19 year olds are proficient virus-spreaders, tho I'd like to hear from others with stats credibility. I do reading comprehension.
   7663. Hysterical & Useless Posted: July 18, 2020 at 08:10 PM (#5963949)
- you left out (4) - learning how to work with other people.


bbc, that's advanced-level stuff, only for the kids who are going to be working in offices.

If you let working-class people learn how to work together, they do counterproductive things like (1) forming unions, (2) organizing community services, and (3) campaigning for politicians who aren't offended by 1 & 2.
   7664. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 18, 2020 at 08:24 PM (#5963950)

Idaho also isn't a blue state & recently its numbers haven't been small potatoes.


Idaho doesn't do small potatoes.
   7665. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 18, 2020 at 09:11 PM (#5963959)

Stathead dream of Florida cases, including by 5 year increments.
   7666. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 18, 2020 at 10:55 PM (#5963973)
DeSantis is STILL waiting for his apology....

Florida Coronavirus Map and Case Count - Updated 7:21 PM, July 18

Total cases: 337,561
Deaths: 4,894

And beginning in the middle of June, the daily numbers graph looks like an ascent of Mt. Everest.
   7667. SoSH U at work Posted: July 18, 2020 at 11:01 PM (#5963974)
DeSantis is STILL waiting for his apology.


Andy, that horse? She's dead.
   7668. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 18, 2020 at 11:06 PM (#5963975)
DeSantis is STILL waiting for his apology....
in case anyone is unaware of the origins of this, here you go.

tl;dr: mission accomplished again.
   7669. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 18, 2020 at 11:31 PM (#5963979)
Shannon Watts @shannonrwatts
A man shopping at a Washington state Kroger pulled a loaded revolver from a holster and pointed it at a fellow shopper who asked him to put on a mask. The man with a gun said COVID-19 is a hoax. Police wrestled him to the ground and disarmed him. #waleg
   7670. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: July 18, 2020 at 11:55 PM (#5963980)
A man shopping at a Washington state Kroger pulled a loaded revolver from a holster and pointed it at a fellow shopper who asked him to put on a mask. The man with a gun said COVID-19 is a hoax. Police wrestled him to the ground and disarmed him. #waleg


Clapper must be so proud.
   7671. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 19, 2020 at 12:04 AM (#5963981)
‘No mask, no entry. Is that clear enough? That seems pretty clear, right?’

I’ll never understand what’s so hard about putting on a mask for a few minutes. It’s common sense. It’s a requirement now in North Carolina. But this is a conservative place, and there are only 900 people in this town. We try hard to get along. We’re a small general store, and we didn’t want to end up in one of those viral videos with people spitting or screaming about their civil rights. We put a sign outside — an appeal to kindness. “If you wear a mask, it shows how much you care about us.”
We found out how much they cared. It became clear real quick.


Good Country People.
   7672. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 19, 2020 at 12:11 AM (#5963982)
Clapper must be so proud.
Misirlou, why don’t you try to contribute some substance, rather than taking pot shots at me over something I had nothing to do with? If some here were a bit more self-aware, they might realize that their silly ad hominem attacks just demonstrate their inability to address actual substance.
   7673. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: July 19, 2020 at 12:15 AM (#5963983)
Because you continue to support, excuse, and defend this behavior on behalf of the current administration. Trump being adamantly against wearing a mask and the quoted behavior is not unrelated. The biggest thing we could do to gets out of this predicament is for everybody to wear a mask in public. Your guy is the biggest obstacle in this. If you do not support this, then say so.


   7674. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 19, 2020 at 12:17 AM (#5963984)
7670 - Hope they charge him with bioterrorism, like cops in TX did the kid who licked the ice cream and put it back.
   7675. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 19, 2020 at 12:24 AM (#5963985)
Because you continue to support, excuse, and defend this behavior on behalf of the current administration. Trump being adamantly against wearing a mask and the quoted behavior is not unrelated.
it's like the anti-abortion movement, which gave (and continues to give, in fact) support and encouragement to people like the olympic bomber eric rudolph (who spent his time preparing for his callup to the big time by bombing abortion clinics) and that shitheel who assassinated an abortion provider in church.


they live for stories like this. they get to play the victim in public and then laugh about it when they jerk off in the shower into their stepmothers' washcloth.
   7676. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 19, 2020 at 12:36 AM (#5963988)
Because you continue to support, excuse, and defend this behavior on behalf of the current administration. Trump being adamantly against wearing a mask and the quoted behavior is not unrelated. The biggest thing we could do to gets out of this predicament is for everybody to wear a mask in public. Your guy is the biggest obstacle in this. If you do not support this, then say so.
If you have a problem with my posts, you ought to be able to respond to their substance, but you are seldom up to the task. Instead, you continually try to tie me to unrelated matters which I haven’t discussed, or positions I haven’t taken. Seems rather trollish. Try to do better, or you and others could even stop injecting politics into every possible thread and then whining when someone offers a different opinion.
   7677. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 19, 2020 at 12:55 AM (#5963990)
Good Country People.
You mean like these folks? Actually, Queens, NYC is more urban, IMHO. Lots of problems in urban areas, but they seem to go largely unmentioned by our mythical ‘Mayor’.
   7678. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 19, 2020 at 12:59 AM (#5963991)
They're ########. Unlike you, I can say the maskless people are ######## and mean it. Ife wou weren't so busy trying to turn everything thing into Q-Anon, you'd see that I criticize widely anyone going maskless.

But yes, be butthurt, you're so good at it.

And be sure not to respond to the science on CIVID and adolescents or the data no longer available at cdc or the red stats with issues with the new reporting since that's all substance and you're so good at ad hominems.

   7679. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 19, 2020 at 02:55 AM (#5964000)
Of coruse, the difference between the Astorians, the paler faces doing the same in St Mark's Place, also in the Post, but you didn't choose that

and the clown in WA, the people in NC or this Karen in Queens, is that the revellers are not getting in anybody's face, not being aggressive, are they?

Or does that distinction not matter in your world?
   7680. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: July 19, 2020 at 07:06 AM (#5964006)
Re 7672-73-76: Because whenever someone on the Wrong Side does something stupid, it's the fault of everybody on the Wrong Side, personally, and they should all just shut up. (This would theoretically also be the case of the Correct Side, but nobody on the Correct Side ever does anything stupid...because if they did, they'd be on the Wrong Side, wouldn't they?)
   7681. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: July 19, 2020 at 07:35 AM (#5964007)
Re 7672-73-76: Because whenever someone on the Wrong Side does something stupid, it's the fault of everybody on the Wrong Side, personally, and they should all just shut up. (This would theoretically also be the case of the Correct Side, but nobody on the Correct Side ever does anything stupid...because if they did, they'd be on the Wrong Side, wouldn't they?)
even if other people's #### stinks, it is not socially acceptable for you to rut in your own fetid waste.


####### hack.
   7682. Tony S Posted: July 19, 2020 at 09:04 AM (#5964009)
A man shopping at a Washington state Kroger pulled a loaded revolver from a holster and pointed it at a fellow shopper who asked him to put on a mask. The man with a gun said COVID-19 is a hoax. Police wrestled him to the ground and disarmed him.


You don't wish COVID-19 on anyone, but there are edge cases.
   7683. Tony S Posted: July 19, 2020 at 09:11 AM (#5964011)

On a semi-related note, was just talking with a friend who lives in Arizona. She was tested 11 days ago and still does not have her test result.


My son tested Monday, after waiting a week to get the test. He had a possible exposure on Jul 4. No results yet.


Hang on. Help is on the way.
   7684. BrianBrianson Posted: July 19, 2020 at 09:19 AM (#5964012)
That does seem slow. I got an appointment about a half hour after I called for a COVID test (the Q-tip in the brain one), and the results were emailed to me I think about 24-28 hours later.
   7685. puck Posted: July 19, 2020 at 12:01 PM (#5964017)
CO's gov Polis was on Meet the Press and said:

The national testing scene is a complete disgrace. So, every test we send out to private lab partners nationally, Quest, Labcorp, seven days, eight days, nine days — maybe six days if we're lucky. Almost useless from an epidemiological or even diagnostic perspective.“


I assume those companies are overhwelmed.

He also said they were trying to build up state testing resources:

"Fortunately, our state lab has done yeoman's work. We're running three shifts a day there, 24 hours a day. So while some are still sent out of state, and unfortunately that takes a long time and we can’t count on it and our country needs to get testing right, we're trying to build that capacity in Colorado."



I assume CO is not unusual in the US in this regard.

How is pooled testing supposed to work? Do they do batches of 4 (or thereabouts) and then re-test individual samples if a batch has a positive?

   7686. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 19, 2020 at 12:11 PM (#5964018)
yes, puck. I'm pretty sure I know that becasue I read it here. May be batches of more than 4.

From the SFChron on waits: "The recent surge of coronavirus infections in California is driving up demand for testing and triggering a resurgence in testing delays, forcing many people to wait up to a week to get tested. Others are waiting up to two weeks to get test results back."
   7687. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: July 19, 2020 at 12:30 PM (#5964020)
From the SFChron on waits: "The recent surge of coronavirus infections in California is driving up demand for testing and triggering a resurgence in testing delays, forcing many people to wait up to a week to get tested. Others are waiting up to two weeks to get test results back."


testing is pointless under those conditions.
   7688. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 19, 2020 at 12:38 PM (#5964022)
For many purposes, yes. Either you a quarantine while waiting or you risk spreading COVID. More fundamentally, the "daily cases" numbers announced each day are a week or so old, so states and localities are in effect not adjusting in real time.

What's the MLB wait time?
   7689. Ron J Posted: July 19, 2020 at 12:46 PM (#5964023)
#7688 MLB was planning on daily turn around. That's what the UFC had when they had the problem with their first card. They were able to retest everybody and have the results within a day.

Pretty much required to make their strategy work.
   7690. Greg Pope Posted: July 19, 2020 at 01:04 PM (#5964027)
How is pooled testing supposed to work? Do they do batches of 4 (or thereabouts) and then re-test individual samples if a batch has a positive?

Yes. Usually it will be something like 25 samples. My earlier example was that you can test 100 people by doing 4 tests. Then even if 2 of those test positive you do 50 more tests. So you’ve tested 100 people with 54 tests. If you are at the point that you average only one of the 4 tests positive then you use 29 tests for 100 people.

The test has to be sensitive enough and accurate enough for this to work.
   7691. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: July 19, 2020 at 01:07 PM (#5964028)
For many purposes, yes. Either you a quarantine while waiting or you risk spreading COVID. More fundamentally, the "daily cases" numbers announced each day are a week or so old, so states and localities are in effect not adjusting in real time.


So, like I said, my son had a possible exposure 15 days ago, found out and called for a test 2 days later, got his test a week later, and has now been waiting 6 days and counting for a result. he has been quarantining at home all that time while to this day having no symptoms. Even if he gets his result tomorrow, and it says positive, what do we do with that information? The original guidance when this all started was quarantine for 14 days. if you have no symptoms by then, go on with your life. well, he has done that. At this point, the test adds no value. It was a complete waste of time and resources.
   7692. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 19, 2020 at 01:08 PM (#5964029)
7689, too bad essential workers arent that essential.

Meanwhile, the maskholes are going to greater lengths to demonstrate their antisocial nature

Anti-mask protesters are finally covering up as the coronavirus gets deadlier. But instead of a mask that actually does anything, they're using masks made of yarn, mesh and lace.
KHOU posted a report from Indianapolis showing how these ineffective masks have grown in popularity as wearing masks become more of a political statement. President Donald Trump finally sported his own mask on July 11.
   7693. RJ in TO Posted: July 19, 2020 at 01:13 PM (#5964031)
At this point, the test adds no value. It was a complete waste of time and resources.
The test still adds value in terms of identifying spread, and giving better ideas as to the possible outcomes of contracting it.

However, you're right, in that it doesn't do much good for him.
   7694. PreservedFish Posted: July 19, 2020 at 01:17 PM (#5964032)
If he finds out he already had it, it could get him back into the dating game quicker
   7695. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 19, 2020 at 01:51 PM (#5964033)
always the silver lining! nice, Fish.
   7696. puck Posted: July 19, 2020 at 02:38 PM (#5964040)
Yes. Usually it will be something like 25 samples. My earlier example was that you can test 100 people by doing 4 tests.


So if a state gets to levels like TX, FL, AZ are now, won't most batches of 25 tests have a positive?
   7697. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 19, 2020 at 02:43 PM (#5964041)

So, like I said, my son had a possible exposure 15 days ago, found out and called for a test 2 days later, got his test a week later, and has now been waiting 6 days and counting for a result. he has been quarantining at home all that time while to this day having no symptoms. Even if he gets his result tomorrow, and it says positive, what do we do with that information? The original guidance when this all started was quarantine for 14 days. if you have no symptoms by then, go on with your life. well, he has done that. At this point, the test adds no value. It was a complete waste of time and resources.

I agree, it has little-to-no value if one has no symptoms. However if he had developed symptoms he'd likely still be sick, and then it would have been good to know whether it was COVID. That being said, that kind of turnaround time is terrible.

My wife had a doctor's appointment a couple of weeks ago. She'd had a mild cough for a few days so they gave her a COVID test then and there. IIRC she got the results within 4 or 5 days (she was negative). Still not ideal, but better than your son's experience.

If they hadn't given her a test at her doctor's, she was going to get one through a local testing site later that day. I believe it took her one day to make the appointment -- she had an online consultation with a doctor regarding her symptoms and then they scheduled the appointment for the next day. This is all in NYC.
   7698. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: July 19, 2020 at 02:45 PM (#5964042)
So if a state gets to levels like TX, FL, AZ are now, won't most batches of 25 tests have a positive?


Not just most. essentially all. At a 30% positivity rate, there is a 99.99% chance at least 1 in a sample of 25 is positive.
   7699. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: July 19, 2020 at 02:47 PM (#5964043)
However if he had developed symptoms he'd likely still be sick, and then it would have been good to know whether it was COVID.


Oh sure. I agree. I guess I'm saying that if his experience is common, getting tested while not symptomatic seems useless.
   7700. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 19, 2020 at 02:52 PM (#5964044)

Oh sure. I agree. I guess I'm saying that if his experience is common, getting tested while not symptomatic seems useless.

Yep. If you don't get the test for a week, then I'm not sure what the point of taking it is, other than for public health reporting purposes. If you get the test shortly after potential exposure, then it's possible you'll take it before you know whether you've been exposed.
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