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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 9745 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   8501. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 01, 2020 at 12:46 AM (#5967285)
15 March: First COVID death in TX
01 May: 1,000th death
05 June: 2,000th death
28 June: 3,000th death
08 July: 4,000th death
14 July: 5,000th death
20 July: 6,000th death
   8502. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 01, 2020 at 01:35 AM (#5967288)
The camp implemented several precautionary measures against the virus, but stopped short of requiring campers to wear masks. The virus blazed through the community of about 600 campers and counselors, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Friday.
The staff and counselors gathered at the overnight camp in late June. Within a week of the camp orientation, a teenage counselor developed chills and went home.
The camp, which the C.D.C. did not name, started sending campers home the next day, and shut down a few days later. By then, 76 percent of the 344 campers and staffers whose test results were available to C.D.C. researchers had been infected with the virus — nearly half the camp.
Of the 344 campers and staff for whom test results were available, 260 tested positive. Of children ages 6 to 10, over half were infected; 44 percent of those ages 11 to 17 were infected, as were one-third of those ages 18 to 21. Only seven staffers were older than 22, and two of them tested positive.

If kids could get COVID this would be concerning.
link
   8503. BrianBrianson Posted: August 01, 2020 at 02:35 AM (#5967291)
I don't get why you think that the kids can get COVID is some kind of gotcha on science demonstrating that they're significantly less likely to catch or transmit it.

I get that we live in a profoundly unscientific age - it doesn't depress me because we always have, and it's (slowly) improving. But, whatever your partisan lean, trying to make a pandemic into a partisan battle is almost certainly going to make it worse.
   8504. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 01, 2020 at 07:42 AM (#5967293)
We know kids can get COVID. Florida has had >25,000 cases under the age of 15. But there is some indication that they do not contract or spread it as easily as adults, and lots of evidence that they are less likely to die from it than adults (FL has only reported 3 COVID deaths below age 15). The Georgia case study does remind us that being "less likely" to contract or spread it doesn't mean they're immune from it, especially when it comes to the conditions described in that case study, in a state like Georgia which has a lot of cases right now.
   8505. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2020 at 07:53 AM (#5967294)
whatever your partisan lean, trying to make a pandemic into a partisan battle is almost certainly going to make it worse.

this is a bad-faith accusation that is only ever thrown in one direction.

if you disagree on the merits, then feel free to disagree, but claiming "politicization" is a bullshit accusation that has zero value and only distracts from the discussion.
   8506. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2020 at 08:06 AM (#5967295)
We know kids can get COVID. Florida has had >25,000 cases under the age of 15. But there is some indication that they do not contract or spread it as easily as adults, and lots of evidence that they are less likely to die from it than adults (FL has only reported 3 COVID deaths below age 15). The Georgia case study does remind us that being "less likely" to contract or spread it doesn't mean they're immune from it, especially when it comes to the conditions described in that case study, in a state like Georgia which has a lot of cases right now.

kids, like adults, are less likely to contract covid when they're sequestered in their own homes. but we know that the places where covid spreads quickest among adults -- prisons, nursing homes, workplaces -- only have one corresponding children's institution: schools. but schools, unlike those adult institutions, were closed almost immediately when covid hit, and they have not been open since, which means that reopening them is a pandora's box, and we really have no idea what is going to happen as a result.

sure, it may be nothing. but it might also trigger a massive increase in the number of cases, leading into the fall, when covid is expected to get significantly more dangerous.

and while it's easy to dismiss any long term complications that children may develop as a result of covid (because we have literally no idea what the severity of those complications may be), we have literally no idea what the severity of those complications may be.
   8507. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 01, 2020 at 09:01 AM (#5967298)
The denialists are still having a field day blaming excess deaths on lockdowns. The problem is there is virtually no evidence for it. Excess deaths are very highly correlated to COVID deaths, and only show weak correlation to lockdowns.

Certain types of deaths, not directly related to COVID, potentially could be up (suicides, drug overdoses), but other types appear to be down (accidents, infectious diseases other then COVID).

For example, kids appear to be dying at a lower rate than average right now, most likely because they are not very susceptible to COVID and because the normal types of deaths they do experience (accidents, infectious diseases) appear to be down across the board.
   8508. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 01, 2020 at 09:23 AM (#5967303)
but schools, unlike those adult institutions, were closed almost immediately when covid hit, and they have not been open since, which means that reopening them is a pandora's box, and we really have no idea what is going to happen as a result.

Primary schools remained open in Sweden, a country which began with a significant outbreak, and yet all signs indicate they eventually got the outbreak under control. Antibody testing in late May indicated “only” 6% of the population had it (10% in Stockholm). I just find it hard to believe that would be possible if children were a major vector of transmission, although I think we still need more information to make firm conclusions. There were also few hospitalizations and only one death among young children, although I don’t have the stats handy right now on hospitalizations.

Sweden’s overall handling of the pandemic was poor, I am not denying that. And there is certainly a risk of opening things up to large groups of children in areas with an outbreak going on. But I do think that we need an evidence-based approach to these things.
   8509. Tony S Posted: August 01, 2020 at 09:26 AM (#5967305)
whatever your partisan lean, trying to make a pandemic into a partisan battle is almost certainly going to make it worse.


Unfortunately, the prevalence of science-denial is not equally distributed across the political spectrum. So it's hard to keep it from becoming a partisan battle to some extent, at least in the US.

   8510. PreservedFish Posted: August 01, 2020 at 10:08 AM (#5967309)
I'm currently expecting our school to be a mirror of MLB's experience. On day 2, there will be two Covid+ cases, and after untangling the web of contacts (classrooms, siblings), it will become clear that some 40% of the entire school needs to quarantine for 2 weeks. Then it happens again. By October there will be no in-person school and we'll be talking about January, but everyone will know that fall 2021 is the best case scenario.
   8511. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2020 at 10:35 AM (#5967313)
I'm currently expecting our school to be a mirror of MLB's experience. On day 2, there will be two Covid+ cases, and after untangling the web of contacts (classrooms, siblings), it will become clear that some 40% of the entire school needs to quarantine for 2 weeks. Then it happens again. By October there will be no in-person school and we'll be talking about January, but everyone will know that fall 2021 is the best case scenario.
even if it's not "your" school, it'll happen in dozens of others.

   8512. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2020 at 10:44 AM (#5967317)
A recent CDC report found that 19% of young people surveyed were not back to their normal health within 14 to 21 days after developing symptoms. In older age groups, the proportion was even higher.
...
The truth is, we don’t know what the long-term consequences of COVID-19 infection are. It’s clearly not something that everyone bounces back from. And since the disease was first identified in December of 2019, that means nobody on this earth has been recovered for more than seven months. We have no idea what COVID-19 recovery means after a year, or five years, or ten years. Are some people’s hearts just slow to recover, or will there be lifelong damage?
...
In the middle of our national discussion about whether and how to reopen schools, I think about this a lot. Since much of the pandemic has transpired while schools were closed, we don’t have a good sense of how often kids get sick, how often they get infected asymptomatically, and how often they are able to spread it to family members. We know some of them do get severely ill. But what about the kids who have a mild case or none at all? Could some of them end up with heart damage for life? We truly don’t know.

link
   8513. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 01, 2020 at 10:55 AM (#5967318)
The denialists are still having a field day blaming excess deaths on lockdowns. The problem is there is virtually no evidence for it.
If you think that’s a “problem,” you’ve been living under a rock for the past several years.
   8514. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 01, 2020 at 11:33 AM (#5967323)
I get that we live in a profoundly unscientific age - it doesn't depress me because we always have, and it's (slowly) improving. But, whatever your partisan lean, trying to make a pandemic into a partisan battle is almost certainly going to make it worse.


C'mon to Texas. It already is a partisan battle, and not only here. the new directives on schools are begging for something like this.
Less likely to die from it is a comfort ... if we open schools for the kids only.
Sweden chose not to do any looking into lessons from schools that had to close.
   8515. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 01, 2020 at 12:06 PM (#5967326)
There are signs, however, that the virus is spreading freely in much of the country. Experts are focused on upticks in the percentage of positive coronavirus tests in the upper South and Midwest. It is a sign that the virus could soon surge anew in the heartland. Infectious-disease experts also see warning signs in East Coast cities hammered in the spring.

“There are fewer and fewer places where anybody can assume the virus is not there,” Gov. Mike DeWine (R) of Ohio said Wednesday. “It’s in our most rural counties. It’s in our smallest communities. And we just have to assume the monster is everywhere. It’s everywhere.”

An internal Trump administration briefing document prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and obtained Friday by The Washington Post counted 453,659 new infections in the past week.

Thirty-seven states and Puerto Rico will probably see rising daily death tolls during the next two weeks compared with the previous two weeks, according to the latest ensemble forecast from the University of Massachusetts Amherst that combines more than 30 coronavirus models.
There are glimmers of progress. The FEMA report showed 237 U.S. counties with at least two weeks of steady declines in numbers of new coronavirus cases.
But there are more than 3,100 counties in America.


Report calls for a national, coordinated response, but guess what.
   8516. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2020 at 12:21 PM (#5967333)
Primary schools remained open in Sweden, a country which began with a significant outbreak, and yet all signs indicate they eventually got the outbreak under control. Antibody testing in late May indicated “only” 6% of the population had it (10% in Stockholm). I just find it hard to believe that would be possible if children were a major vector of transmission, although I think we still need more information to make firm conclusions. There were also few hospitalizations and only one death among young children, although I don’t have the stats handy right now on hospitalizations.

Sweden’s overall handling of the pandemic was poor, I am not denying that. And there is certainly a risk of opening things up to large groups of children in areas with an outbreak going on. But I do think that we need an evidence-based approach to these things.

the "evidence based approach" makes it clear that some percentage of america's 100,000 schools are going to be ###### by this mass reopening.

is it going to be your school? maybe. keep your fingers crossed.

is it going to be someone else's school? absolutely; it is a 100% metaphysical certitude that someone will get ###### for the republcian death cult.


is that worth being outraged by? i guess that depends on whether you care about the wellbeing of people other than yourself. oh, there i go politicizing another issue again.
   8517. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 01, 2020 at 12:22 PM (#5967334)
Report calls for a national, coordinated response, but guess what.
It's quaint that FEMA is still apparently preparing briefing documents.
   8518. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 01, 2020 at 12:40 PM (#5967336)
the "evidence based approach" makes it clear that some percentage of america's 100,000 schools are going to be ###### by this mass reopening.


The evidence based approach makes clear that not all 100,000 should be reopened. But it’s not clear that they should all remain closed, either.
   8519. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 01, 2020 at 12:41 PM (#5967337)
FL +179 this morning. 1,250 for the past 7 days. They’re already running at the midpoint of my range of 1,200-1,300 for the week beginning July 29.
   8520. puck Posted: August 01, 2020 at 12:50 PM (#5967339)
The evidence based approach makes clear that not all 100,000 should be reopened. But it’s not clear that they should all remain closed, either.


What sorts of things would it make sense to base the decision on? Levels of infections/rate of increase sort of stuff?

Seems like school districts around here (Denver metro area) vary. I think some are trying some variety of the hybrid, but I know some are starting remote only. And it doesn't necessarily track with income (e.g., with wealthier districts doing remote learning).
   8521. BDC Posted: August 01, 2020 at 12:56 PM (#5967341)
Apologies if you already posted this, Mayor Blomberg, but yes, it's a sharp partisan struggle in Texas. Greg Abbott's position on school closures:

In a statement Friday, Gov. Greg Abbott said local health authorities can shut down schools if there’s evidence of an outbreak after students return to campus — but cannot shut them down weeks before schools open.
But Abbott, who issued the statement with top education officials, said school districts could apply for waivers to keep their buildings closed beyond the state's eight-week maximum if they believe they need one. The Texas Education Agency will review those requests on a "case-by-case basis," according to the statement.


All quite muddled. No matter what the local conditions, schools must open (eight weeks into the year) and brave the virus: unless they ask to stay closed (and is the state really going to tell local districts to open if conditions are terrible?).

The logic of "You can't close unless people get sick" is a clear partisan gamble and clearly not driven by public-health concerns (which generally dictate preventative measures). Best case for Texas Republicans is that schools reopen, not much goes wrong, and people sense normality and confidence again by November. One hopes this happens, but the history of COVID so far is not promising. I guess they're aware the gamble could backfire in a gigantic way, but reckon they have to make it, or likely go down to defeat in quite a few races.
   8522. BrianBrianson Posted: August 01, 2020 at 12:57 PM (#5967342)


C'mon to Texas. It already is a partisan battle, and not only here. the new directives on schools are begging for something like this.
Less likely to die from it is a comfort ... if we open schools for the kids only.
Sweden chose not to do any looking into lessons from schools that had to close.


Restaurants are open in Texas. Movie Theatres are open in Texas. So yeah, less likely to die isn't flawless, but if you're letting your kids play with machine guns and grenades, but think knives are too dangerous, yeah, I'm going to say you're being a doofus.

Sweden isn't the only place you can get school data from. We get very similar answers across Europe and Asia, with pretty clear evidence the younger the kids are, the less schools are contributing to spread. Any place doing a near total lockdown, it's probably worth closing schools, at least for kids whose parents are also confined at home. If the list of things open is something like food stores, pharmacies, doctors & hospitals, and support services, then closing schools except for kids of parents who work in those places. Otherwise ... if opening schools allows parents to work from home rather than return to the office, you're probably reducing spread that way. If you're letting people come into the office ... that's putting people way more at risk than schools are. My son was allowed to return to school two weeks before I was allowed to return to work, which let me start getting work done at home.

Past that ... some people will no doubt treat it as a partisan issue. But when you do, you're abandoning any pretense that you're interested in the best outcomes, you're only interested in your "team" "winning". And the excessive focus on schools, instead of more significant transmission vectors, is probably a net negative for outcomes.
   8523. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5967343)
The evidence based approach makes clear that not all 100,000 should be reopened. But it’s not clear that they should all remain closed, either.

who's making the decision on which schools opens and which stay closed?

oh right; it's trump and devos. they seem like eminently honest, intelligent, trustworthy and caring people.


for some clarity: i wouldn't trust obama and duncan with decisions of this magnitude. like ####### hell i'd trust anyone in this ghoulish administration.



the cost of getting this decision wrong is gargantuan, but does it seem to you like that cost is weighing on anyone who is pushing for it?

and do you want to be the person on the 6 oclock news sobbing and saying "i knew it was dangerous, but i didn't think it would happen to meeeee"?


unless you have literally no other option, and unless you're willing to be that person, sobbing, with your child on a ventilator and doctors telling you they're not coming back, the only responsible decision is to pull your kid out until this is under control.
   8524. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 01, 2020 at 01:22 PM (#5967349)
Yes, BDC, I have been posting pretty regularly about TX, as I'm here in Houston. I was surprised, yesterday, to hear you're headed back into the classroom. Of the LibArts faculty where I am, only one person chose hybrid, and he's reconsidering even that choice, I do think. It may be different up there, our students are nontraditional and we have no on-campus housing to speak of.
Everything with schools was looking reasonable until Paxton wrote that idiotic letter and Abbott quivered.

There are two movie locations open in Harris COunty, Brian, both one the outer periphery's mass death before masks tracts, only as of this weekend. Restaurant occupancy is very low in Houston; almost all takeout. OTOH, Classes are 8 hours in building a day, which neither restaurants nor movies are -- this ain't France, n'est ce pas? -- and contact is more sustained for teachers with students. Not only that, but activity levels in US schools are inevitably higher than with movies and restaurants (save Chuck E. Anyone going there deserves to die).

Best out come, as BDC noted, is not the ####### that Austin is decreeing, Brian. Should I just ####### smile and congratulate them to show I'm post partisan? #### that. Harris County is an island of sanity in a sea of death cult.

But I suppose there are good people on both sides, eh?
   8525. tshipman Posted: August 01, 2020 at 01:46 PM (#5967355)
The evidence based approach makes clear that not all 100,000 should be reopened. But it’s not clear that they should all remain closed, either.


The problem is that there's no leadership, or objective standards based in safety. Instead, everything is based on some kind of short-term political calculation.

No one should have to deal with closed schools. We should be capable of crushing this by staying at home for 4 ####### weeks, and then everyone would be able to go back to school.
   8526. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: August 01, 2020 at 02:20 PM (#5967365)
The logic of "You can't close unless people get sick" is a clear partisan gamble and clearly not driven by public-health concerns (which generally dictate preventative measures). Best case for Texas Republicans is that schools reopen, not much goes wrong, and people sense normality and confidence again by November. One hopes this happens, but the history of COVID so far is not promising. I guess they're aware the gamble could backfire in a gigantic way, but reckon they have to make it, or likely go down to defeat in quite a few races.


I posted this over in Discord ... but this just seems such a bizarre gamble ... if it bleeds, it leads ... and some kids and teachers ARE going to get the VID and die.

It's just math.
   8527. base ball chick Posted: August 01, 2020 at 02:29 PM (#5967368)
the "religion" skoolz (meaning none of Those Icky Darkies exfcept the 2 or 3 allwed in to show - ahem - diversity) are insisting on in person indoctrination. besides, rich White people don't get covid. they're not the demographic

i don't believe that children are somehow magically immune to getting the stupid virus. makes ZERO sense. now i can get taht they might could not show as many symptoms, or no symptoms, but that does not mean they can't give it to anyone else.

as i keep telling my son, it is who you GIVE it to outside of skool that is what is a problem

i am seriously frightened

and we are just talking about eh kidz. not their parents. not their granny who is gonna be looking after them when they get out of skool. not the teachers, especially the older ones. not the rest of the support staff.

from what i can tell, the restaurants are pretty much all doing a very good takeout bidness. i wouldn't agree to sit in a restaurant and eat if you gave me free food
   8528. PreservedFish Posted: August 01, 2020 at 02:31 PM (#5967369)
We should be capable of crushing this by staying at home for 4 ####### weeks, and then everyone would be able to go back to school.


It's remarkable that nobody is even talking about this as a possibility. It's so obviously called-for. Hard lockdown, smash the curve, the start over with re-opening, this time maybe with less brazen idiocy.
   8529. base ball chick Posted: August 01, 2020 at 02:43 PM (#5967372)
nobody is talking about it because there is a large percent of the population who will refuser to do it because it is their right to get infected and to infect and kill other people

it might could help if the media - at least the media here in houston - would start showing White patients dying of covid insteasd of endless talking about how this is a disease of dark skinned people
   8530. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: August 01, 2020 at 02:47 PM (#5967373)
One of my dad's friends from college lives in TX. Dad was talking to him about dealing with the virus, opening the schools and the guy just dropped "kids have to learn about death sometime"

If that is the mindset holy ####.
   8531. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 01, 2020 at 02:47 PM (#5967374)
It's remarkable that nobody is even talking about this as a possibility.


Oh, people most definitely are. It's not within an Overton Window dominated by Murdoch on one hand and, on the other hand, outfits like the Times, which fits Phil Ochs's classic definition of the liberal: Ten percent to the left of center in good times, ten percent to the right of center when it affects them personally.

Jeremy: No death no Christianity. QEfuckinD
   8532. RJ in TO Posted: August 01, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5967380)
It's remarkable that nobody is even talking about this as a possibility.
You guys can't even get people to wear masks. Why talk about something that's clearly beyond impossible? You might as well talk about giving everyone a free unicorn.
   8533. Eudoxus Posted: August 01, 2020 at 03:06 PM (#5967383)
It's remarkable that nobody is even talking about this as a possibility.

I agree that this should be taken more seriously. (I'm very much not an economist, so I'm probably missing obvious stuff, but I think we should have considered having the initial lockdown be much harder, and coupled with (a) a national moratorium on all rent/mortgage/debt collection, and (b) a ban on eliminating any jobs during the lockdown. That might mitigate some of the economic impact of the hard lockdown.)

But four weeks isn't enough, I suspect -- infections will be working their way through households during lockdown. Two months would probably do the job, though. Presumably you don't get all the way down to zero, but numbers are then low enough that a sane and well-organized society can get a test-and-trace regime going to squash any new outbreaks.
   8534. base ball chick Posted: August 01, 2020 at 03:07 PM (#5967384)
Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: August 01, 2020 at 02:47 PM (#5967373)

One of my dad's friends from college lives in TX. Dad was talking to him about dealing with the virus, opening the schools and the guy just dropped "kids have to learn about death sometime"

If that is the mindset holy ####.


- yeah because it is not like they have never seen/heard of anyone dying before and their school doesn't bring in "death counselors" if a couple of kids die in a car wreck

- it's seriously about - it's a problem of people with dark skin, not our problem cuz to our kind it's just a cold/flu. not that it exists in the first place

- it's also - Those Virus Nutz are bent on keepin us away from our bars/likker/sex. I offered a certain male i know a pocket p***y if he was so miserable but he looked at me with shock and horror that i even knew about such a thing. u don't get it - he told me. so educate me - i told him. he said - nevermind
   8535. PreservedFish Posted: August 01, 2020 at 03:56 PM (#5967395)
You guys can't even get people to wear masks. Why talk about something that's clearly beyond impossible? You might as well talk about giving everyone a free unicorn.


That is a very fair response.
   8536. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2020 at 04:11 PM (#5967400)
One of my dad's friends from college lives in TX. Dad was talking to him about dealing with the virus, opening the schools and the guy just dropped "kids have to learn about death sometime"

If that is the mindset holy ####.

fun fact:
republicanism is a literal death cult.
   8537. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: August 01, 2020 at 04:57 PM (#5967405)
It's remarkable that nobody is even talking about this as a possibility. It's so obviously called-for. Hard lockdown, smash the curve, the start over with re-opening, this time maybe with less brazen idiocy.
Yes, but people want their freedom.

Are there any early projections on possible spread from schools?
   8538. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 01, 2020 at 05:17 PM (#5967410)
Fun fact for lawyers

Tampons and pads are no longer contraband at the upcoming bar exam for aspiring lawyers in Texas.
Pausing a practice that critics called retrograde and discriminatory, the state’s board of law examiners said in late July that test takers will be allowed to bring feminine hygiene products in clear plastic bags with them to the grueling, multiday exam that’s needed to obtain a law license. It’s unclear if the policy will remain in place for a later exam, in February; the board’s executive director, Susan Henricks, said the board doesn’t know the “conditions” under which the test will take place due to the pandemic.


Texas!
   8539. base ball chick Posted: August 01, 2020 at 05:20 PM (#5967411)
and i want the freedom to go on living with my Husband in as good health as he is now. not to mention my parents and aunties and uncles and cousins and friends and their parents and families

all it takes is people wearing masks and not being, well, dismissive because we're not White
   8540. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 01, 2020 at 05:34 PM (#5967416)
With its new math Texas added another 269 today for a total of 6837 deaths, but they're waiting on certificates rather than logging deaths as hospitals report them. (Who needs real-time reporting when you can graph it to look like the death rate is falling?)
OTOH, Worldometer started the day at 6,998 deaths and has blown past 7K with the large counties still to report.

Oh yeah, 9,539 new cases or ~1400 above last Saturday.
   8541. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2020 at 05:49 PM (#5967420)
Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva became the latest lawmaker to test positive for the coronavirus, he confirmed Saturday. Grijalva, a Democrat whose district includes parts of the Phoenix and Tucson areas, had been in self-isolation since Texas Republican Rep. Louie Gohmert tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday. The two had been at a hearing together on Tuesday. “I currently have no symptoms, feel fine, and hope to make a quick and speedy recovery,” Grijalva said.
...
“While I cannot blame anyone directly for this, this week has shown that there are some Members of Congress who fail to take this crisis seriously,” he said. “Numerous Republican members routinely strut around the Capitol without a mask to selfishly make a political statement at the expense of their colleagues, staff, and their families.”

link
   8542. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 01, 2020 at 05:53 PM (#5967421)
. . . Texas added another 269 today for a total of 6837 deaths . . .
For context:
Coronavirus deaths by state:
1. New York. 32,771
2. New Jersey 15,903
. . .
8. Texas 7,266
9. Florida 7,022

Deaths per 1M population:
1. New Jersey 1790.4
2. New York 1684.6
. . .
18. Florida 326.9
. . .
28, Texas 259.6
   8543. base ball chick Posted: August 01, 2020 at 05:58 PM (#5967422)
y'know, deaths are NOT the only thing to look at seeing as how there are a whole lot of people who are not dead but still suffering from the virus. just because you are not quite dead enough for the icu doesn't mean nothing is wrong
   8544. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 01, 2020 at 06:08 PM (#5967426)
8543 - only if you consider other persons as legitimate objects of concern.
   8545. Tin Angel Posted: August 01, 2020 at 06:11 PM (#5967427)
Yes, BDC, I have been posting pretty regularly about TX, as I'm here in Houston.


Mayor, what have the strip clubs been like in Houston since reopening?
   8546. Jay Z Posted: August 01, 2020 at 06:15 PM (#5967429)
For schools I would just tie it to the community level. Because the kids all have parents, if the kid brings it into the school, the kid is getting it from the parent most likely, the more parents that have it, the more kids that have it...

"All lives matter" or some similar phrase that hasn't been politicized. More meat packing plant workers than kids have died of Covid. I'm sure far more doctors and nurses. Everyone matters.

That teacher in Arizona was teaching on-line. And she apparently got COVID outside of teaching, so it had nothing to do with schools anyway.

But we actually have to prioritize. If you prioritize keeping bars and restaurants open, so people can go out and party and spread the virus, then you can't open schools because too many cases... we are all interconnected, we are finding out.
   8547. base ball chick Posted: August 01, 2020 at 06:15 PM (#5967430)
there is only a drive thru one far sd i know and the strippers are all wearing masks and don't come near the customers
   8548. Tin Angel Posted: August 01, 2020 at 06:22 PM (#5967431)
#8547 This was linked in another thread.
   8549. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 01, 2020 at 06:24 PM (#5967432)
Mayor, what have the strip clubs been like in Houston since reopening?

Drive-thru! (knock yrself out with the double-entendres)

By the way, I was once told they became a big thing here for NASA support, as it were.

   8550. base ball chick Posted: August 01, 2020 at 06:24 PM (#5967433)
jay z

we kept the kidz inside, so lots of them if they got it, asnd we got no idea because they have not been tested real too much, they got it from a parent/GP adult family friend

but you know that as soon as you get the kidz together, wearing masks is not gonna be real too good - i see adults do stuff like pull down masks and wipe mouth/noses with the back of they hands - well, things are gonna go the other way. and teachers ARE at high risk from the kidz
   8551. bigglou115 is not an Illuminati agent Posted: August 01, 2020 at 06:25 PM (#5967434)
@8538. More and more I'm hearing people refer to the bar exam as professional hazing. While I don't quite go that far, there have been a few cases were I'm certain I knew something off the top of my head only because it was on the bar, stuff like that proves my point.

A clear plastic bag. Ffs. They spend 3 years teaching you how to look stuff up in law school, then the big test is memorize everything.
   8552. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 01, 2020 at 06:37 PM (#5967437)
Jay, the difference between the NT and TX guidance is rather significant. So, yes, localize, but provide guidance.
   8553. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2020 at 06:44 PM (#5967438)
But we actually have to prioritize. If you prioritize keeping bars and restaurants open, so people can go out and party and spread the virus, then you can't open schools because too many cases... we are all interconnected, we are finding out.
100.
For schools I would just tie it to the community level. Because the kids all have parents, if the kid brings it into the school, the kid is getting it from the parent most likely, the more parents that have it, the more kids that have it...
i think that much is too optimistic. as MLB is finding out, by the time the testing shows up to indicate that schools need to be closed, the damage will already have been done.
   8554. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 01, 2020 at 07:14 PM (#5967442)
I offered a certain male i know a pocket p***y if he was so miserable

Used or new? Asking for a friend.
   8555. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 01, 2020 at 07:30 PM (#5967446)
More and more I'm hearing people refer to the bar exam as professional hazing.
That’s exactly what it is.
   8556. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2020 at 07:33 PM (#5967449)
when the #### did matisse thybulle turn into mr glass.
   8557. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 01, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5967450)
shake milton with a sharp elbow to a TJs neck. nice.
   8558. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 01, 2020 at 07:59 PM (#5967451)
More and more I'm hearing people refer to the bar exam as professional hazing.
Nationwide ~ 20% flunk every year, and considerably more in some states, usually those that allow grads of non-ABA accredited law schools to take the exam. Jurisdictions admitting folks this year via ‘Diploma Privilege’, especially those who have previously failed the bar, are letting some in that would never make it in a normal year. Those folks may the only ones with fond 2020 memories.
   8559. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 01, 2020 at 09:05 PM (#5967462)
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
6h
Wrong! We have more cases because we have tested far more than any other country, 60,000,000. If we tested less, there would be less cases. How did Italy, France & Spain do? Now Europe sadly has flare ups. Most of our governors worked hard & smart. We will come back STRONG!


   8560. bigglou115 is not an Illuminati agent Posted: August 01, 2020 at 11:36 PM (#5967483)
@8558, I've seen enough idiot lawyers on my day that I think some sort of filter is necessary, anybody can get through law school if they're determined. When I was actively trying cases we all knew when certain lawyers walked in that their clients were just sunk.

But a memorization test is a terrible barometer of how successful someone will be at the practice of law.

I've met one lawyer who didn't go to an ABA. He took the bar in Alabama and passed, which let him sit for the Arkansas bar. One of the smartest guys I know, but readily admits that it was Barbri and not his law school that got him through it.
   8561. Jay Z Posted: August 02, 2020 at 01:30 AM (#5967487)
i think that much is too optimistic. as MLB is finding out, by the time the testing shows up to indicate that schools need to be closed, the damage will already have been done.


Just like MLB, the damage is done before the kids ever get to the school.

USA is failing at this. 150K dead. The message is not getting through. I am willing to look at everything.

China may be autocratic, but they seem much more scientific about this. Rather than partisan politics, willful ignorance on the one side and clickbait headlines on the other. I think separating the school issue from the larger community is a mistake. They are tied. People are trying to separate them now, and I don't think it works.

For a MLB player I sincerely think their #1 priority is conduct with teammates and off the field. They are people, that is what they need to focus on. Rather than worrying about someone getting infected during a game, when we are not worrying about the bigger picture.

If another 100K die of COVID-19 in the USA, I guess I'm not going to care how many of them are teachers. Just worry about reducing the 100K number. It's all about teachers and kids dying now, because like Trump, we're bored with the doctors, nurses, and meat packing workers dying.

Schools need to be folded into a comprehensive societal strategy, rather than trying to generate more clickbait.
   8562. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 02, 2020 at 01:56 AM (#5967488)
Yes. Clickbait/denialism is one axis of the problem, the other, as I sort of read you suggesting, is a cultural investment in STEM approaches that lacks curiosity about the larger stories the numbers and vectors are part of. If schools become problematic sites, for example, one might ask what changed with the virus or with kids, or one might co back and see just how much kids were insulated from the virus by parental choices, the fact that some parents are more lax about the risks of their own behavior than they are about their kids' (which is not to deny 8530, or the woman who sent her high-risk teen to a church party then pumped her full of hydroxy while believing COVID a hoax).

A comprehensive -- or, perhaps better, coordinated -- national response is reasonable -- national does not need to mean one size fits all -- but I'm afraid that requires 180s that wont happen.\, which is the danger of narratives without numbers.

   8563. Hank Gillette Posted: August 02, 2020 at 02:10 AM (#5967489)
y'know, deaths are NOT the only thing to look at seeing as how there are a whole lot of people who are not dead but still suffering from the virus. just because you are not quite dead enough for the icu doesn't mean nothing is wrong


You are absolutely right. The focus on deaths is probably because it is a lot harder to dispute that someone is dead, not that it keeps doubters from claiming that something other than COVID-19 was the cause of death. I had someone on Twitter claim that the people with COVID-19 who developed pneumonia and then died should not be counted as COVID-19 deaths, but pneumonia deaths.
   8564. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 02, 2020 at 10:34 AM (#5967498)
Wrong! We have more cases because we have tested far more than any other country, 60,000,000. If we tested less, there would be less cases. How did Italy, France & Spain do? Now Europe sadly has flare ups. Most of our governors worked hard & smart. We will come back STRONG!

:: https://t.co/hhwYOrnWZn

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 1, 2020
moving past the wrongly consistent messaging of the rest of the tweet: who put that word in this person's tweet? that usage of that word does not exist in that vocabulary.

is he...learning...to empathize with others?
   8565. Ron J Posted: August 02, 2020 at 11:05 AM (#5967502)
I suspect this will be of interest: Study

Comparisons of all-cause mortality between European countries and regions: January to June 2020 (From the UK's Office for National Statistics). There's a lot here. And the methods used are clearly spelled out for anybody wanting to check -- or apply the methods elsewhere.

   8566. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: August 02, 2020 at 12:12 PM (#5967510)
moving past the wrongly consistent messaging of the rest of the tweet: who put that word in this person's tweet? that usage of that word does not exist in that vocabulary.


It's just the adjectival version of 'sad', which, in the usage of Trump, has very little to do with sorrow.
   8567. BrianBrianson Posted: August 02, 2020 at 12:25 PM (#5967512)
But we actually have to prioritize. If you prioritize keeping bars and restaurants open, so people can go out and party and spread the virus, then you can't open schools because too many cases... we are all interconnected, we are finding out.


If you prioritise keeping bars and restaurants open, you have essentially zero chance of damping the spread of the virus. Takeaway and Delivery are okay (or at least, people have to get food somehow, so those things carry a little risk, but so do grocery stores, or whatever else, you can't have zero risk no matter what you do). Outdoor dining, especially in rural-er areas where tables can be spread out, probably isn't that bad. Indoor restaurants, or bars? Then, #### it. You don't "manage" risk by giving up smoking so you'll have more money to spend on absinthe to drink while you're skidooing in the mountains. If you don't clamp down on the big risks, there's little sense on clamping down on the small ones.
   8568. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 02, 2020 at 12:31 PM (#5967513)
It's just the adjectival version of 'sad',

adverbial.
Takeaway and Delivery are okay

You can do it contactless at a lot of places. Pull up, open a car door, someone comes out and outs it in the car. My fish store does exchanges in the parking lot; looks like The Wire.
   8569. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 02, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5967516)
Then there's the Arizona approach:
This is my choice, but I’m starting to wish that it wasn’t. I don’t feel qualified. I’ve been a superintendent for 20 years, so I guess I should be used to making decisions, but I keep getting lost in my head. I’ll be in my office looking at a blank computer screen, and then all of the sudden I realize a whole hour’s gone by. I’m worried. I’m worried about everything. Each possibility I come up with is a bad one.
The governor has told us we have to open our schools to students on August 17th, or else we miss out on five percent of our funding. I run a high-needs district in middle-of-nowhere Arizona. We’re 90 percent Hispanic and more than 90 percent free-and-reduced lunch. These kids need every dollar we can get. But covid is spreading all over this area and hitting my staff, and now it feels like there’s a gun to my head. I already lost one teacher to this virus. Do I risk opening back up even if it’s going to cost us more lives? Or do we run school remotely and end up depriving these kids?


Also: Arizona has the third-lowest spending per pupil to begin with.
   8570. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 02, 2020 at 02:44 PM (#5967531)
Only school districts in Iowa counties where the two-week average of positive new coronavirus tests is at least 15% will be allowed to operate completely online under state guidance issued Thursday.


Triple the 5 percent hot-spot definition used by CDC. Local control by death cult is not wise.
   8571. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 02, 2020 at 02:50 PM (#5967534)
Thanks, Mayor, I almost posted that about our state. 15% is ridiculous. The guideline was written to be impossible to meet.

not just a couple days at 15%. They demand TWO WEEKS of 15%.

it is a death cult. wtf.

and, if that ridiculous level is somehow met....

Only once a county surpasses a positivity rate of 15% will a district in that county be allowed to petition the state education and public health departments for a two-week waiver to conduct 100% online or remote learning. Waivers must be renewed.


Two weeks! Two weeks to beat the virus and get back to normal!!


   8572. base ball chick Posted: August 02, 2020 at 03:08 PM (#5967541)
I’m worried. I’m worried about everything. Each possibility I come up with is a bad one


- i feel just like that arizona superintendent

seems like theres a whole lot of people who have decided that since the kidz are not gonna DIE from it and most won't even have to miss skool - who cares about does it damage them in the long run cuz who cares it's not here now - the rest of the people near kidz are just gonna hafta take their chances with this stupid virus as it spreads ike a wildfire. and as long as DEATHS don't get too high with White people under 60, well then, it's just too bad for the dark skinned ones. unless, of course, it is the school's support staff. or your own housekeeper. or something

- as for houston, the school bus drivers must be terrified. they are either White people over 60 or people of color

i have not been able to find out if this stupid virus is killing higher numbers of POOR urban Whites. or wealthy Blacks/hispanics who live in upper class neighborhoods, who have no health problems
   8573. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 02, 2020 at 05:06 PM (#5967560)
“I don’t think he plans to leave the White House. He doesn’t plan to have fair and unfettered elections. I believe that he plans to install himself in some kind of emergency way to continue to hold onto office,” Democratic Rep. James Clyburn says about Pres. Trump. #CNNSOTU pic.twitter.com/q0CgdTwWcX

— State of the Union (@CNNSotu) August 2, 2020
it worked for giulianni
   8574. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 02, 2020 at 05:40 PM (#5967568)

Sorry I haven't been able to respond to some of the posts from this weekend. Have been in various parts of Virginia doing some good social-distanced visits with my wife's family. I will say that I have been impressed by the level of mask usage here. I can understand why they haven't completely eradicated the virus here but also why they haven't had the same level of outbreaks that we are seeing in other parts of the South.

We should be capable of crushing this by staying at home for 4 ####### weeks, and then everyone would be able to go back to school.

I think it takes longer than 4 weeks. Granted, NY/NJ/CT were starting from a worse position than any state is right now, but we locked down in late March and it took until early June to get the positive test rate under 2% in those areas. Maybe under 2% isn't your goal, maybe other states that aren't in as bad a shape will have an easier time eradicating this thing, maybe less urban areas will have an easier time than NYC, etc. But I think you're talking about more like 8 weeks in places like AZ/FL/SC/MS/So Cal., not 4 weeks.
   8575. Ron J Posted: August 02, 2020 at 05:55 PM (#5967569)
And then there's Jair Bolsonaro: Face up to it - you will probably all get coronavirus.

   8576. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 02, 2020 at 06:00 PM (#5967570)
Florida reported 62 deaths today. First time with a week-over-week decline since last weekend. I don't know how much the storm and normal weekend reporting variability has to do with it. They're still at 1,234 over the past 7 days.
   8577. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 02, 2020 at 06:22 PM (#5967574)
i have not been able to find out if this stupid virus is killing higher numbers of POOR urban Whites. or wealthy Blacks/hispanics who live in upper class neighborhoods, who have no health problems

I do believe the answer is always going to be class-inflected: the definition of essential labor comprehends lots of poor folk, they're less likely to be able to work at home, to have space to isolate, to have access to really good medical care, more likely (I think) to have comorbidities (from stress, diet, environment)
- as for houston, the school bus drivers must be terrified. they are either White people over 60 or people of color

I believe I red a month ago they're retiring.
I think it takes longer than 4 weeks. Granted, NY/NJ/CT were starting from a worse position than any state is right now, but we locked down in late March and it took until early June to get the positive test rate under 2% in those areas.

I don't think regions not in NY shape will take that long if they get as serious as NY did, but I have very little confidence in that condition being met:
testing czar Adm Brett Giroir, declined on Sunday to call for a national mandate for wearing facial masks in public, explaining that such a mandate could backfire.
“You really need to have mask-wearing at a very high degree,” Giroir said on NBC’s Meet the Press. “There’s a debate whether a mandate is an affirmative thing.
“The public health message is, we’ve got to have mask-wearing.”

I have no idea whet the bolded phrase means.


   8578. tshipman Posted: August 02, 2020 at 06:55 PM (#5967578)
I think it takes longer than 4 weeks. Granted, NY/NJ/CT were starting from a worse position than any state is right now, but we locked down in late March and it took until early June to get the positive test rate under 2% in those areas. Maybe under 2% isn't your goal, maybe other states that aren't in as bad a shape will have an easier time eradicating this thing, maybe less urban areas will have an easier time than NYC, etc. But I think you're talking about more like 8 weeks in places like AZ/FL/SC/MS/So Cal., not 4 weeks.


Sure. The fact of the matter is that every week where this doesn't happen is basically a waste. Whether it's 4 weeks or 8 weeks, it doesn't matter. It's a finite period of time that if we just took our medicine, would be over with soon.
   8579. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: August 02, 2020 at 07:58 PM (#5967585)
From a practical standpoint, yes, we could lockdown (for real) and still beat this thing. Or at least keep it in abeyance until the government set up a true test, trace and tracking system.

But that's not going to happen. The national government won't order it, you wouldn't get enough state governments on board, and if by some miracle you did, we all know the national government would use the time to do nothing, meaning the reduction would be temporary.
   8580. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 02, 2020 at 08:36 PM (#5967589)
From a practical standpoint, yes, we could lockdown (for real) and still beat this thing. Or at least keep it in abeyance until the government set up a true test, trace and tracking system.
i'm impressed that you were able to finish typing this without breaking out into a fit of hysteria.
   8581. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 02, 2020 at 08:44 PM (#5967591)
Greenfield-Central Junior High School resumed classes last week, bringing students back into school buildings for the first time since March. The Indianpolis Star reports that midway through the first day, the local health department informed school officials that a student had tested positive for covid, forcing Greenfield-Central to follow its protocol for such a situation, prepared entirely without guidance from the state’s health department. That protocol involved isolating the student and ordering everyone who came into contact with them to quarantine for two weeks, The New York Times says.
...
teachers’ unions in many districts are urging state and local governments to extend school closures, The New York Times reports. Some, like the American Federation of Teachers, have authorized union members to strike if key safety conditions—like required mask usage, updated ventilation systems—are not met.

link
   8582. tshipman Posted: August 02, 2020 at 08:59 PM (#5967592)
But that's not going to happen. The national government won't order it, you wouldn't get enough state governments on board, and if by some miracle you did, we all know the national government would use the time to do nothing, meaning the reduction would be temporary.


Why not?

I mean, why should we just accept terrible performance? Why argue about stupid bullshit like, how safe can we make an unsafe thing like in person education for teenagers?

Why can't we demand better?
   8583. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 02, 2020 at 09:00 PM (#5967593)
Why can't we demand better?
are you unfamiliar with the phrase "death cult".
   8584. Ron J Posted: August 02, 2020 at 10:19 PM (#5967599)
#8252 You can demand all you like but without the states getting more or less on the same page there are always going to be reservoirs of infection. And no, a federal program won't help (sorry, incorrect. It would clearly help but it would merely mitigate the situation, not solve it) if it's not being enforced at the state and local levels. And that's not going to happen in far too many places.
   8585. base ball chick Posted: August 02, 2020 at 10:35 PM (#5967601)
tshipman Posted: August 02, 2020 at 08:59 PM (#5967592)

I mean, why should we just accept terrible performance?


- there is no reason why we SHOULD but the reason why we WILL is because there is a large number of people who can say - to hell with everyone else, ima get mine.

Why argue about stupid bullshit like, how safe can we make an unsafe thing like in person education for teenagers? Why can't we demand better


- some of us just might could demand better but as long as the percent of people who think that if covid exists at all it is just a cold, or some females having sex with demons in their sleep or it's judst a disease of POC, or some such, is high enough to keep enough congressmaroons/state maroons/local maroons in power, then won't nothing be done
   8586. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 03, 2020 at 01:30 AM (#5967605)
Given that it typically takes years to develop a vaccine, the timetable for the initiative, called Operation Warp Speed, was incredibly ambitious. With tens of thousands dying and tens of millions out of work, the crisis demanded an all-out public-private response, with the government supplying billions of dollars to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, providing logistical support and cutting through red tape.
It escaped no one that the proposed deadline also intersected nicely with President Trump’s need to curb the virus before the election in November.
The ensuing race for a vaccine — in the middle of a campaign in which the president’s handling of the pandemic is the key issue after he has spent his time in office undermining science and the expertise of the federal bureaucracy — is now testing the system set up to ensure safe and effective drugs to a degree never before seen.

“There are a lot of people on the inside of this process who are very nervous about whether the administration is going to reach their hand into the Warp Speed bucket, pull out one or two or three vaccines, and say, ‘We’ve tested it on a few thousand people, it looks safe, and now we are going to roll it out,’” said Dr. Paul A. Offit of the University of Pennsylvania, who is a member of the Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory committee.
“They are really worried about that,” he added. “And they should be.”

link
Dr. Stephen Hahn, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, has not ruled out emergency approval of a vaccine.
“We would consider using an emergency use authorization if we felt that the risks associated with the vaccine were much lower than the risks of not having a vaccine,” he told The Journal of the American Medical Association in an online interview.


How great a risk can the virus be if it's not worth doing anything serious about in the meantime -- even mandating masks?
   8587. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 03, 2020 at 02:35 AM (#5967608)
“Contact tracing is the wrong tool for the wrong job at the wrong time,” said Dr. David Lakey, the former state health commissioner of Texas who helped oversee the Ebola response in Dallas in 2014.

“Back when you had 10 cases here in Texas, it might have been useful,” said Dr. Lakey, who is now the chief medical officer for the University of Texas System. “But if you don’t have rapid testing, it is going to be very difficult in a disease with 40 percent of people asymptomatic. It is hard to see the benefit of it right now.”

Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the C.D.C. who is a strong advocate for robust contact tracing programs, largely agreed that it is impossible to do meaningful or substantial contact tracing with huge numbers of cases. He noted that when testing results lag as much as they have, it becomes almost impossible to keep up with the high volume of infected individuals and those who have been in contact with them.

link
   8588. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: August 03, 2020 at 04:29 AM (#5967610)
Factoid alert! The Swiss government published a breakdown of where it believes new infections occurred during July:

Family: 216 cases 27.2%
Hospital care personel: 17 cases 2.1%
Other: 99 cases 12.5%
School: 2 cases 0.3%
Work: 69 cases 8.7%
Private parties: 24 cases 3.0%
Disco/Clubs: 15 cases 1.9%
Bar/Restaurant: 13 cases 1.6%
Demonstrations/Events: 1 case 0.1%
Spontaneous people gatherings: 17 cases 2.1%
Unknown: 4 cases 0.5%
Information missing: 316 cases 39.8%

(Unsourced, I'm afraid.)
   8589. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 03, 2020 at 07:51 AM (#5967614)
The person overseeing America’s national covid-19 testing strategy, Adm. Brett Giroir, admitted on Sunday that tests and contact tracing are of “limited utility” when an outbreak of disease is raging in a completely uncontrolled manner. Unfortunately, the coronavirus pandemic is completely out of control in the vast majority of the U.S.—the country with the worst outbreak in the world.

“When you have a widespread, multifocal outbreak where many people are asymptomatic, testing and tracing are of limited utility versus public health policy measures, like mask wearing, like closing indoor crowded spaces,” Giroir told NBC News’ Meet the Press.
...
“Wear a mask, avoid crowded indoor places, use good hygiene, and avoid crowds,” Giroir said.

In reality, other democratic wealthy countries around the world are not experiencing “multifocal” and uncontrolled outbreaks. The virus is really only widespread and uncontrolled in countries like India that suffer from extreme poverty and middle-income countries like Brazil that suffer from authoritarian leaders.

Masks are important, but you can’t stake your entire future on the goodwill of your country’s worst people.
things
   8590. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: August 03, 2020 at 10:25 AM (#5967628)
In reference to 8588, if over 50% of the cases are Other, Unknown and Information Missing, what good is listing the breakdown?

BBR, this is not a dig at you but the Swiss government.
   8591. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 03, 2020 at 10:42 AM (#5967632)
Masks are important, but you can’t stake your entire future on the goodwill of your country’s worst people.


Instead, we put them in the White House.
   8592. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 03, 2020 at 10:44 AM (#5967633)
yeah, the breakdown in 8588 is disappointing. Sure, they can track family transfer because its primarily people living together. And work, where they force you to show up at a certain time and a certain place. Everything else is basically shrugging their shoulders.
   8593. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: August 03, 2020 at 11:23 AM (#5967638)
In reference to 8588, if over 50% of the cases are Other, Unknown and Information Missing, what good is listing the breakdown?

BBR, this is not a dig at you but the Swiss government.


Yes, the subtext of the forum post I grabbed it from was that contact tracing isn't really effective enough yet - at least in Switzerland - to rely on as a tool for planning re-opening. The one piece of relatively positive news, that school transmission was a very small proportion of cases, is mitigated by the fact that it was July. Some schools were open, but probably for a limited time, with limited class sizes, and maybe mostly outside. It's Switzerland. Go climb an Alp.
   8594. Random Transaction Generator Posted: August 03, 2020 at 12:11 PM (#5967653)
From recent antibody testing, it seems the province of Ontario's infected rate is only 4x the number of confirmed cases.

The findings suggest that the true number of people sickened by COVID-19 in Ontario is closer to 160,000, more than four times the official tally. While that might sound high, it actually means the province is doing a “fantastic” job at catching infections, one epidemiologist says — and a much better job than other jurisdictions. Recent U.S. research has estimated the true caseload there at six to 24 times higher.

The presence of antibodies to the virus was higher in certain age groups and some parts of the province, including Toronto, according to the Public Health Ontario study. But the overall low numbers attest to Ontario’s success in stifling the initial wave of the pandemic, the scientists say.

“When you think about what the numbers mean, it really suggests that our social distancing and our public health measures have been really effective at preventing widespread infection in the population,” said Shelly Bolotin, a Public Health Ontario scientist and University of Toronto professor who led the study.
   8595. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 03, 2020 at 12:12 PM (#5967656)
In reference to 8588, if over 50% of the cases are Other, Unknown and Information Missing, what good is listing the breakdown?

Honest question: Is it surprising that the largest known spread would be family? Someone catches it and a- or presymptomatically transmits it at home, right?
   8596. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 03, 2020 at 12:14 PM (#5967657)
“When you think about what the numbers mean, it really suggests that our social distancing and our public health measures have been really effective at preventing widespread infection in the population,” said Shelly Bolotin, a Public Health Ontario scientist and University of Toronto professor who led the study.

Sure, rub it in.
   8597. Ron J Posted: August 03, 2020 at 12:29 PM (#5967659)
And "family" needs to be broken down one step further to be useful. Who was the first person in the family to get it and where did they get it?
   8598. Tony S Posted: August 03, 2020 at 12:41 PM (#5967664)
Oh boy.

A gathering of 250,000 people in one place. It's probably a good guess that mask usage will be spotty at best.

What could go wrong?
   8599. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: August 03, 2020 at 12:47 PM (#5967666)
Fox News’ Pirro comes out firmly against masks: “What is the point of the mask? The point of the mask is to basically kinda dehumanize. It’s to frighten people...It’s exactly what the anarchists and the protesters need...There are all kinds of subliminal messages to that mask.”


Seriously

@Stiggles ... Republican Death Cult.
   8600. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 03, 2020 at 12:57 PM (#5967667)
Heidi Przybyla @HeidiNBC
"Caravans of Americans"

"Canada's border patrol has effectively prevented caravans of Americans — and their RVs and their campers — from surging across the border as they normally do each summer."
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