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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 9768 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   8601. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 03, 2020 at 12:57 PM (#5967668)
Heh, Pirro should go into the bedrooms and tents of 8598 and see what masks can be used for.
   8602. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 03, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5967673)
In a survey conducted by Sturgis, more than 60% of its residents said that the rally should be postponed. But the pressures of the tourism business — plus the realization that plenty of riders will come to Sturgis even if the event is officially not happening — has prompted the city to attempt a scaled-back version of the original rally.

The majority wants to remain safe during a deadly worldwide pandemic.

The local death cult has tourism to worry about.
   8603. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: August 03, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5967674)
@Mayor Bloomberg

Fox News’ Pirro on vaccine: “And by the way, I’m older and I probably should be one of the people to be vaccinated. But I won’t. I’m not going to allow them to do that to me. And then the question is, will you be forced to do it?”


Death cult?

Death cult.
   8604. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: August 03, 2020 at 01:28 PM (#5967677)
Heidi Przybyla @HeidiNBC
"Caravans of Americans"

"Canada's border patrol has effectively prevented caravans of Americans — and their RVs and their campers — from surging across the border as they normally do each summer."


Next you'll tell me that they keep the unwashed, virus-ridden American hordes out without using a wall...
   8605. BrianBrianson Posted: August 03, 2020 at 02:59 PM (#5967698)
Honest question: Is it surprising that the largest known spread would be family? Someone catches it and a- or presymptomatically transmits it at home, right?


Especially with known, no. Families will spread it easily (spending lots of time indoors in close proximity, probably very few people are wearing masks at home), and they're going to be the easiest to trace.

Even once they're symptomatic, there aren't places to send family members away to avoid transmission. If I get infected, so will my wife and son, there's simply no hope of isolating one of us.
   8606. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 03, 2020 at 03:10 PM (#5967701)
If I get infected, so will my wife and son, there's simply no hope of isolating one of us
you don't have a car?
   8607. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 03, 2020 at 03:11 PM (#5967702)
   8608. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 03, 2020 at 04:39 PM (#5967715)
oh, for ##### sake

Filed to ESPN: Eagles coach Doug Pederson has tested positive for the coronavirus, according to sources. He relayed the news to the team tonight after a second positive test confirming the news.

— Tim McManus (@Tim_McManus) August 3, 2020
   8609. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 03, 2020 at 04:59 PM (#5967723)
Rodríguez was set for Boston’s delayed Opening Day start—only to be diagnosed with COVID-19 in July. The virus hit the pitcher hard. “I felt like I was 100 years old,” he told reporters afterward. “My body was tired all the time. Throwing up. Headaches. Like I said, all the symptoms.”
...
On July 23, Boston manager Ron Roenicke said “everybody” was confident that Rodríguez would recover sufficiently to pitch this season. That assessment was contradicted the very next week: Rodríguez was shut down for the season after a diagnosis of myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart that “weakens the heart, creates scar tissue and forces it to work harder to circulate blood and oxygen throughout the body,” according to the Myocarditis Foundation.
...
there is no certainty in a recovery at this point, despite the club’s optimism. Myocarditis following COVID “is obviously not something that the medical community has a lot of data on because the virus itself is new, much less in an athlete,” Bloom says.

link
   8610. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 03, 2020 at 05:07 PM (#5967725)
The first attempt to push back against the players came from Washington State head coach Nick Rolovich, who was recorded on a phone call with wide receiver Kassidy Woods. Woods told Rolovich that he was opting out of this season because he has sickle cell trait, a condition that puts him at increased risk of serious complications from COVID-19. Rolovich said he had no issue with that, but then asked whether Woods was “joining this Pac-12 unity movement” and said it would “be an issue if you align with them as far as future stuff.” For the rest of the call, Rolovich not-so-subtly told Woods that he could lose his scholarship if he was part of the unity group, rather succinctly showcasing why reform is so desperately needed. Rolovich is a millionaire with the power to strip a player’s non-monetary compensation on a whim if he feels like it. There’s no rule stopping him.
Let’s spell this out again: During a pandemic, thousands of unpaid athletes, who predominantly are Black, are being asked to risk their health to make money for their coaches and administrators, who overwhelmingly are white.
Washington State defensive lineman Lamonte McDougle tweeted Sunday that he supported the players threatening to sit out, but that not playing this season wasn’t an option for him. “If the NCAA wants to use me as a lab rat,” he wrote, “it is what it is.”
link
   8611. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 03, 2020 at 05:46 PM (#5967736)
Filed to ESPN: Eagles coach Doug Pederson has tested positive for the coronavirus, according to sources. He relayed the news to the team tonight after a second positive test confirming the news.

— Tim McManus (@Tim_McManus) August 3, 2020

In person, like Louie Gohmert?
   8612. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 03, 2020 at 05:50 PM (#5967737)

8609 the Rodriguez stuff is pretty scary. Maybe not life-or-death scary, but I can definitely understand players sitting out the season in light of the potential risk to long-term health and ability to earn a living.

On the transmission side, it looks like no Phillies tested positive after playing a heavily infected Marlins squad. (One staff member tested positive, two others did but it was later determined/claimed those were false positives.) Maybe some positive news there in terms of how likely one is to contract this thing simply playing baseball against an infected opponent.
   8613. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 03, 2020 at 05:53 PM (#5967739)
On the transmission side, it looks like no Phillies tested positive after playing a heavily infected Marlins squad. (One staff member tested positive, two others did but it was later determined/claimed those were false positives.) Maybe some positive news there in terms of how likely one is to contract this thing simply playing baseball against an infected opponent.
i would be very wary of promoting that conclusion.
   8614. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 03, 2020 at 05:54 PM (#5967740)
Lamonte McDougle
@ninetheslime
I agree with everything this movement is fighting especially the health concerns but not playing this season isn’t an option for me I got ppl that need to eat. so if the NCAA wants to use me as a lab rat it is what it is.

the new essential worker

8609 the Rodriguez stuff is pretty scary. Maybe not life-or-death scary

Nor for him, but for some functioning, otherwise healthy adults.
   8615. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 03, 2020 at 06:22 PM (#5967744)
A new study out Monday seems to confirm anecdotal reports from health care workers: Emergency rooms across the U.S. saw a massive decline in visits in March and April, possibly because people feared contracting covid-19 if they sought medical care.
...
The authors found that there was a clear decline in daily ER visits starting in March across all five states, relative to the months before. At the same time, there was an uptick in people who visited the ER and were then admitted for hospitalization. Between states, though, there were differences.
...
“Our new rallying cry is that hospitals are safe,” Melnick said. “Few hospitals outside of New York approached going over capacity during March and April 2020. That means a lot of people suffering from non-COVID illnesses and injuries may have stayed home and unnecessarily suffered or even died because they were too scared to come in.”
link
   8616. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 03, 2020 at 06:35 PM (#5967747)

FL reported 73 new deaths this morning. New cases and tests were down for two days straight but I believe that was due to a number of testing sites being closed since July 30 due to the Tropical Storm. They will probably be down for another couple of days as the closed sites don't reopen until August 5.

TX reported only 37 deaths over the past two days. Hard to know what to make of their numbers given all of the recent noise. I suspect that when we look back in 2-3 weeks we'll see that there were actually 200-250 "reported" daily deaths happening this past week and that the number will start to decline in the next week or so. The peak that you see right now, when you look back at fatalities by date of death, was 191 on July 15, but the decline since then is almost certainly due to the reporting lag.
   8617. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 03, 2020 at 06:43 PM (#5967749)
Dave: Texas was offline yesterday to install new software. Remember, too, that they had been reporting as people died, now there's a lag between reporting and coroner's reports, while part of last week seems to have been catch-ups.
It begins to seem like the tests and deaths are 1-2 weeks old, which is, of course, would be a problem if Texas were trying to be proactive. But at least the headline numbers now look good for reopening schools. :/
   8618. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 03, 2020 at 08:06 PM (#5967775)
The first hour hits like a ton of bricks, with rapid-fire raids and the juxtaposition of the desolation on the faces of undocumented immigrants with the beaming expressions on the faces of the officers anxious to reach their quotas. Even the few reunions we do see are qualified in their joy—Erin is reunited with his young daughter after having been separated from her at the U.S.-Mexico border while seeking asylum. They board a bus to the next unknown stage in their journey; the episode ends with the camera focused on the young girl’s thousand-yard stare, a “souvenir” from her time spent in the shelter, where she says agents repeatedly told her she’d never see her father again.
what’s even more informative—and unnerving—is how readily ICE officers compartmentalize their feelings about the morality of their work and its legality. These agents—men and women; young and middle-aged; white, brown, and Black—all carry out the same orders, but for every one that blatantly brags about nabbing collaterals, another shrugs that they do this job “because somebody has to do it.” “Just following orders” is a common refrain, one that’s more rationalizing rhetoric than a denial. But the insights that Immigration Nation yields, which make it an essential if grueling watch, undermine “just following orders” as a defense
   8619. Jay Z Posted: August 03, 2020 at 08:10 PM (#5967777)
i would be very wary of promoting that conclusion.


It's probably 1/100th, more likely 1/1000th, that a ballplayer gets infected by a rival ballplayer during the course of playing the game, than gets it from a teammate, from a family member, from a bar/dance club/casino/ad hoc party.

Let's focus on the top of the list. Sturgis is a nice, juicy target coming up. The ballplayers aren't even complying all that well with the low hanging fruit. Focus on that.
   8620. base ball chick Posted: August 03, 2020 at 08:27 PM (#5967781)
i once saw a movie about aliens who gert disguised as peoploe but if you got special glasses yo9u could see they were teh evulll

it was called They Live

now, we got a bunch of shtttballz in govt here in tejas and i call it - They LIE. our Special Glasses is as simple as reading the chron

"Texas government’s tally is undercounting coronavirus cases by the thousands, according to the Houston Chronicle. The discrepancy shows up because the state is not collecting data from rapid testing sites, which report their numbers to local governments but not the state"

- oh i wouldn't worry about 1/4 meeeelyin people in sturgis on motor cycles seeing as how the NA got sense enuf to stay away and everyone else is White and we all know that White people b immune because of being White. and i am not getting why looie gohmert is even bothering to take HCQ seeing as how the virus is harmless and he got no symptoms anyhow

   8621. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 03, 2020 at 09:29 PM (#5967790)
Yeah, but it's almost like you can't blame Greg Abbott, more like Ann Richards (pbuh) was the shining exception to an illustrious history of hehheh olboyism

followup to 8620:
And the undercount is about to get worse. The federal government is rolling out a program to use thousands of antigen tests in nursing homes across the country — including Texas.
   8622. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 03, 2020 at 09:32 PM (#5967791)
Afternoon update: Houstonians not wearing masks will now face a $250 fine, Mayor Sylvester Turner announced Monday.
The move is a pivot from educating the public about wearing masks, Turner said. Now, Houston police officers will be tasked with issuing warnings to people who do not wear masks, as mandated by the state of Texas.
Anyone who does not heed the warning will be issued the citation.

I'll take it if all it does is give Dan Patrick a stroke.
   8623. baxter Posted: August 03, 2020 at 09:44 PM (#5967793)
I wonder if any of you have considered the issue of taking an elevator vs. stairs.
Initially, I thought, stairs, b/c the elevator is enclosed, air does not circulate as well; can be multiple people on it, surfaces are touched etc.

Then, someone opined I'm not taking stairs, people are huffing and puffing going up them, the virus is airborne and it may fall down the stairwell. This was opinion was not based any science. But, it raised issues I had not considered. A google search revealed no articles; just a general avoid a crowded elevator and take stairs recommendation.

Is there anything evidence-based to the contrary on that line of thought.

thank you in advance.
   8624. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 03, 2020 at 10:04 PM (#5967795)
I'm a stair taker because after I left NYC for the flatlands of Houston I grew to dislike elevators and their tendency (at least on my campus) to get stuck between floors. I suspect, too, that stairs are less used, despite that recommendation. I don't think it would "fall down the stairwell" as much as fall on the stairs (huffing and puffing is a function of going up, in which case, one is facing the risers), and it's probably wishful thinking to think the virus gets off the elevator when it reaches its floor.

My $0.02.
   8625. RJ in TO Posted: August 03, 2020 at 10:22 PM (#5967797)
Afternoon update: Houstonians not wearing masks will now face a $250 fine, Mayor Sylvester Turner announced Monday.
The move is a pivot from educating the public about wearing masks, Turner said. Now, Houston police officers will be tasked with issuing warnings to people who do not wear masks, as mandated by the state of Texas.
Anyone who does not heed the warning will be issued the citation.
On the one hand, it's good they're starting to take this seriously.

On the other hand, cops are going to be sporting great big boners over the thought of how they'll be able to use this to harass the #### out of minorities.
   8626. Srul Itza Posted: August 03, 2020 at 10:34 PM (#5967798)
I work on the 20th floor. I take the stairs. I did it long before COVID.

I rarely see anyone in there, and certainly not once you get past the 5th floor, unless they are just going down or up a couple of flights. Not much huffing and puffing. It may help that I get to the building before 7 a.m., although I also take them after my lunchtime meal.

Fact is, people who are likely to huff and puff probably don't do it more than once.

For the record, I do not huff and puff. The benefit of doing it twice a day, 6 days a week, for a few years.
   8627. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 03, 2020 at 10:42 PM (#5967800)
Dave: Texas was offline yesterday to install new software. Remember, too, that they had been reporting as people died, now there's a lag between reporting and coroner's reports, while part of last week seems to have been catch-ups.
It begins to seem like the tests and deaths are 1-2 weeks old, which is, of course, would be a problem if Texas were trying to be proactive. But at least the headline numbers now look good for reopening schools. :/


Thanks, yeah I saw the note about the system being down on Sunday, so I was expecting a higher number today. Like I said, the new system has been a mess in terms of trying to discern trends in what is going on. But you really can’t hide bodies for very long before they start to pile up, so I don’t think they are trying to manipulate the numbers with this — if they are it’s incredibly short sighted.
   8628. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: August 03, 2020 at 11:06 PM (#5967806)
Obituary of a random Texan you never heard of until now

It's a brutal statement, but every word of it is true.

(Apologies if this was posted earlier.)
   8629. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 03, 2020 at 11:31 PM (#5967812)
Thanks, yeah I saw the note about the system being down on Sunday, so I was expecting a higher number today

The rest of henote said that they'd back-door those, not announce an aggregated one-day total.
But you really can’t hide bodies for very long before they start to pile up

This here's the west, pilgrim. I don't have any actual idea whether the motive is corrupt or plain old incompetence, though with the state's well-earned reputation from back when Rs were Ds and school-reopening nigh. Worldometer showed 114, with the good news being that Hidalgo had been reporting fewer deaths for each of the past 5 days. Worldometer is now a day behind, so tomorrow they'll jump from "today's" 12 to 26 -- which is still much better than 40-60.


On the other hand, cops are going to be sporting great big boners over the thought of how they'll be able to use this to harass the #### out of minorities.

I'll risk naivete here. I don't think Turner will let it happen, he hasn't totally forgotten where he came from, or Chief Acevedo, who is trying to build a reputation after a 2019 cop massacre that revealed just how filthy the drug crimes unit was and resulted in dozens of convictions being vacated.
That little shitshow ended the no-knock warrant here, which happens when you kill two innocent (white) people in their late 50s, and their dog, and get a couple cops shot in the process, all on the word of an imaginary informant and then plant the wrong kind of drugs with someone paying attention. (And let's not get into the history of the crime lab.)
The union head is a piece of ####, but I'm not sure who other than QAnoners take him seriously.
   8630. BrianBrianson Posted: August 04, 2020 at 01:06 AM (#5967821)
I wonder if any of you have considered the issue of taking an elevator vs. stairs.


I haven't seen anything, and what we do know about transmission probably means the answer will have a lot of "it depends". What're the stairs like, elevator like, in terms of ventilation and occupancy (and surfaces you're touching)? My office has a one person at a time in elevators rule, which might not be practical in a lot of places. We're also quite strict about wearing masks in shared spaces, so they'd probably be okay. But apart from maybe one or two largely disused buildings, nowhere has more than a flight of stairs to ascend, so few people are going to be breathing hard either. I'm assuming that wouldn't be true in a lot of places either.

There is at least one case of transmission that's believed to come from surface contact in an elevator: Here, but I would imagine living in the same building there are other plausible surfaces they both could have touched. If you're touching public surfaces, bring a bottle of vodka or soap or something.
   8631. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 04, 2020 at 06:10 AM (#5967827)
2020 america, you #############:

Can I breastfeed after being hit by teargas? Do I need to wait? Should I “pump and dump?”

   8632. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 04, 2020 at 06:11 AM (#5967828)
.@jonathanvswan: “Oh, you’re doing death as a proportion of cases. I’m talking about death as a proportion of population. That’s where the U.S. is really bad. Much worse than South Korea, Germany, etc.”@realdonaldtrump: “You can’t do that.”

Swan: “Why can’t I do that?”
pic.twitter.com/MStySfkV39

— Axios (@axios) August 4, 2020
   8633. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 04, 2020 at 07:50 AM (#5967831)
The child on the far left is just six years old, with a 14-year-old girl to the right of her, a 17-year-old after that, and a 12-year-old on the far right. The 12-year-old was handcuffed but the 6-year-old girl was not, at least by the time Wurtz had started filming. The children can be heard on the video wailing and crying, wondering what’s happening to them. At least one of the children screams, “I want my mommy.”

The cops issued a written apology online, but their letter included a lengthy portion that tried to justify pulling weapons on kids.
...
The police department has offered to pay for any therapy sessions the children may need from the trauma of their encounter with so many cops, which eventually included over a dozen officers, according to local news reports.

the "good apples" have rotted
   8634. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 04, 2020 at 08:26 AM (#5967835)
   8635. BrianBrianson Posted: August 04, 2020 at 09:39 AM (#5967840)
Well, the BBC got some anonymous data they apparently trust, reporting the undercounting in Iran was about 2/3rds, decreasing from basically ~100% in Jan/Fev, to about ~50% now (for those who struggle with English, that'd make the total number of deaths about thrice what was reported, and currently running about twice reported) BBC

There's some attempt to suggest it was deliberate underreportting because they now seem to have a pretty detailed accounting of who died where and when, but given it's known there was after the fact recounting that apparently hasn't been widely distributed, I'd hold off on drawing firm conclusions about how much is deliberate. Still, if current undercounting is ~50%, that's much higher than (at least most?) Western countries, but I'm unsure where most countries stand at the moment.
   8636. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 04, 2020 at 09:44 AM (#5967842)
There's some attempt to suggest it was deliberate underreportting because they now seem to have a pretty detailed accounting of who died where and when, but given it's known there was after the fact recounting that apparently hasn't been widely distributed, I'd hold off on drawing firm conclusions about how much is deliberate. Still, if current undercounting is ~50%, that's much higher than (at least most?) Western countries, but I'm unsure where most countries stand at the moment.
it's more accurate than texas.
   8637. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: August 04, 2020 at 10:11 AM (#5967843)
The German Bundesliga has announced that they are ready to re-open their doors to some spectators as and when the official guidance allows. No alcohol, tickets tied to individual attendees, spacing between spectators. I was listening to commentary of a socially-distance trial run for a cricket game in the UK a couple of weeks back - an interview with one attendee kind of gave the game away when he was asked whether he was having fun. "Well, we've been able to get beer in," he replied, and then repeated the point later on. Still, that's cricket for you.

Our local ice-hockey team has welcomed the delay of the start of their season to November as giving them a better shot at getting spectators into our 10k-seater venue. I don't think we'll be among the first through the doors, but good luck to them. Germany's rate continues to be elevated over a few weeks ago - 7-day average of around 700 per day is the most since May, but it's taken about a month to double, so not reaching critical status yet.
   8638. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 04, 2020 at 10:34 AM (#5967846)
The Iran data cited refers to a systematic undereporting of known/identified COVID-symptom deaths. It's not directly related to excess deaths, which could be significantly higher. The BBC article mentions that the new numbers are comparable to excess deaths, but gives no citation for that, so it's hard to know what that actually means. My best guess is that it matches the undercount percentage reported in mid-June for very early in Iran, so may have limited relevance here. As far as I know there have been no further excess death numbers released for Iran, and none covering most of the time period covered by the latest BBC report.


Mathematically there is more than one way to express a concept. The most well-known numbers at the moment are total reported cases and deaths, so expressing other figures in relation to these is perfectly natural and intuitive, and for most people the easiest way to be immediately understood.

Global Death toll could be 60% higher than reported.

Heavily cited JAMA study done for March-May:

Findings In this cohort study, the number of deaths due to any cause increased by approximately 122 000 from March 1 to May 30, 2020, which is 28% higher than the reported number of COVID-19 deaths.
...

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Excess deaths provide an estimate of the full COVID-19 burden and indicate that official tallies likely undercount deaths due to the virus. The mortality burden and the completeness of the tallies vary markedly between states.


edit: what is the "~100%" in relation to in post 8635?
   8639. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 04, 2020 at 10:43 AM (#5967847)
Florida reported 245 deaths this morning. 1,286 for the past week. I had predicted 1,200-1,300 a week ago (my "model" actually had 1,240 as the best estimate).

So two weeks ago, I predicted 1,000-1,100 (1,067 best estimate) and the actual number was 998.
A week ago, I predicted 1,200-1,300 (1,240 best estimate) and the actual number was 1,286.

My original best estimate for this week was 1,279 but that was assuming a constant number of cases; I had revised it down slightly due to fewer cases reported last week.

It will get a bit tougher now with the noise in the testing data this past week.
   8640. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 04, 2020 at 11:42 AM (#5967850)
Sorry, I actually jumped the gun in #8639 -- my estimate was for the 7 reporting days ending tomorrow, not today. So I'll give a real update tomorrow.
   8641. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 04, 2020 at 12:30 PM (#5967857)
8632 -- How am I supposed to tell the diff between the real thing and the parody? That sounds like the discussion of the inaugural crowd overdubbed with Spinal Tap.
Also, couldn't have been 245 in Florida. "It's going down in Florida" in 8632
   8642. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 04, 2020 at 12:39 PM (#5967861)
“It’s like the landlord and the tenant,” he rambled in a press conference. “And, uh, without a lease, the tenant doesn’t have the value. We’re sort of in a certain way the lease.”

is the above stated quote describing:

A: the lend/lease act of 1941
B: a landlord threatening to illegally evict a tenant
C: the concept of taxation without representation
D: a small time loan shark trying to talk his way out of a racketeering charge.
E: something from the bibble.
   8643. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 04, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5967862)
For the one being lease among you all, he shall be great
   8644. Swoboda is freedom Posted: August 04, 2020 at 12:54 PM (#5967863)
The lease shall be first and the first lease.
   8645. mike f Posted: August 04, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5967867)
Breweries in Florida are now getting around the on site consumption ban by getting food licenses and selling Hot Pockets. So don’t adjust those numbers too far down, Dave.
   8646. Lassus Posted: August 04, 2020 at 01:42 PM (#5967869)
Global Death toll could be 60% higher than reported.

I know it's just subjective whining, but I hate stories and headlines like this.
   8647. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 04, 2020 at 01:44 PM (#5967872)
Breweries in TX can be open only if 51 percent of their onsite revenue comes from food, so the breweries with legit restaurants attached (not at all surprising with the local food scene) have the option to open. That's a revision of an initial ruling that specified 51 percent of all sales.
   8648. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 04, 2020 at 02:38 PM (#5967879)
Why Texas’ coronavirus data comes with caveats

It’s hard to collect good numbers on an unknown virus, and Texas health officials have made errors. But experts say the state’s coronavirus data is useful as long as users understand its limitations.


Watch Gov. Greg Abbott address the need for more hospital beds in the Rio Grande Valley at 2:45 p.m.

The governor will be speaking at the McAllen Convention Center, which was recently converted into a hospital to help meet the region's needs during the coronavirus pandemic.


that's a stat
   8649. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 04, 2020 at 02:52 PM (#5967882)
   8650. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 04, 2020 at 03:32 PM (#5967887)
“It is shocking to see this decline in cognitive functioning among baby boomers after generations of increases in test scores,” study author Hui Zheng, professor of sociology at The Ohio State University, said in a statement released by the university. “But what was most surprising to me is that this decline is seen in all groups: men and women, across all races and ethnicities and across all education, income and wealth levels.”

Baby boomers are already known to experience more chronic health problems than earlier recent generations did at their age
   8651. BDC Posted: August 04, 2020 at 05:13 PM (#5967893)
Breweries in TX can be open only if 51 percent of their onsite revenue comes from food, so the breweries with legit restaurants attached (not at all surprising with the local food scene) have the option to open. That's a revision of an initial ruling that specified 51 percent of all sales.

Sounds like my plan to sell five-cent beers in combos with $6.95 pretzels is ripe for development.
   8652. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 04, 2020 at 05:47 PM (#5967895)
Another 245 fatalities announced by the State of TX site today, not to be outdone by FL. I think it's likely that Worldometer will not cross 200 for the day (unless Hidalgo County releases Tuesday numbers early and Worldometer includes them). Hidalgo County includes McAllen (see 8648). The State site reported 9167 new cases; Worldometer seems set to go over 10,000.
   8653. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 04, 2020 at 07:21 PM (#5967902)
BlackAzizaNANsi @Freeyourmindkid
This is the first day of school in Paulding County, Georgia.

https://twitter.com/Freeyourmindkid/status/1290626349426671617
   8654. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 04, 2020 at 07:45 PM (#5967904)
Late Tuesday afternoon, the negotiators emerged from the day’s negotiating session feeling a little more upbeat. Marginal movement had been achieved.

“We’re not at the point of being close to a deal,” Mnuchin told reporters. “But we did try to agree to set a timeline.”
   8655. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 04, 2020 at 07:54 PM (#5967906)
Texas now at 207 Worldometer; streak of days below 200 ends at 2. Also over 11,000 cases. 4th highest number of new cases in one day, and likely to stay that way unless another 350 cases surface in late reporting.
   8656. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 04, 2020 at 10:21 PM (#5967924)
Where zombie narratives often feature a handful of destructive, treacherous humans who see the plague as an opportunity, it’s rare that they feature those characters in positions of power which they use to actively keep the public from believing in a plague for months on end as millions of people across globe the are infected. It’s comforting to imagine that public health officials, governmental bodies, and news organizations would all do the responsible thing in the face of a pandemic and immediately get to the important work of launching coordinated initiatives to keep the public informed and largely unharmed (see: other apocalypse scenarios). But the unfortunate reality is that when faced with an actual plague, countries like the U.S. have botched their early opportunities to keep the death rate down, a very real kind of horror that would benefit from fictional examination in the future (real-world examination should, of course, be a high priority).

   8657. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 05, 2020 at 12:17 AM (#5967945)
Re the photo in 8563
The superintendent said the main photo circulating on social media has been taken out of context.
“Some individuals on social media are taking this photo and using it without context to criticize our school reopening efforts,” Otott said. “Under the COVID-19 protocols we have adopted, class changes that look like this may happen, especially at a high school with more than 2,000 students.”
The superintendent said the district has more than 33,000 students who are currently learning in person and virtually and that they anticipated adjustments will be needed.
"The Department of Public Health state exposure to COVID-19 occurs after 'Being within 6 feet of sick person with COVID-19 for about 15 minutes," Otott said.
“One area where we have received a good deal of feedback is mask use in our schools. Wearing a mask is a personal choice and there is no practical way to enforce a mandate to wear them. What we will do is continue to strongly encourage all students and staff to wear masks.”

Well ok then.
   8658. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 05, 2020 at 12:54 AM (#5967948)
New very large antibody study in Italy. Finds only about 2.5% testing positive for antibodies. Some caveats though--biggest one is antibody detectibility likely fades over time. Also selective sampling (almost 60% of the 150,000 people selected for the study chose not to participate).

Taken at face value, IFR would have been around 1.7%, supposedly, 2.4% if you take into account excess deaths. Higher in Lombardy. Based on the fading of antibodies and the other factors, the actual numbers could be quite a bit lower. Samples were collected from end of May to mid-July, so 2.5-4+ months after the peak in Italy.
   8659. BrianBrianson Posted: August 05, 2020 at 01:34 AM (#5967950)

edit: what is the "~100%" in relation to in post 8635?


I'm not sure exactly what you're asking, but I was just trying to describe that (given the data in the BBC article), they went from missing pretty much all the deaths in Jan/Feb, to it looks like around half now-ish, rather than say, a constant fraction.
   8660. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 07:43 AM (#5967954)
Wearing a mask is a personal choice and there is no practical way to enforce a mandate to wear them

"we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas"
   8661. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 08:56 AM (#5967961)
It takes a lot of strategy to defeat this Luciferian Cabal that has been in power. I think a lot of [Trump’s] first term has been preparation for taking down that Cabal, so that we can roll out the energy technologies,” explains Monroe.

"one person’s descent into the quasi-religion of QAnon"

   8662. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 08:59 AM (#5967962)
Trump: "There are those that say, 'You can test too much.' You know that."@jonathanvswan: "Who says that?"

Trump: "Read the manuals. Read the books."

Swan: "Manuals? What manuals?"

A real exchange with the president.https://t.co/45kuGhFZf4 pic.twitter.com/YL1qKdw8sr

— Jenna Amatulli (@ohheyjenna) August 4, 2020
   8663. Ron J Posted: August 05, 2020 at 09:05 AM (#5967963)
#8660 The Philippines is violently enforcing mask rules (and I doubt anybody is advocating this) with … indifferent results. Mask rules work if you get buy in and not otherwise.
   8664. Ron J Posted: August 05, 2020 at 09:14 AM (#5967964)
Interesting results from New Zealand that show the limits of unemployment stats. They've currently got a low unemployment rate. So unexpectedly low (about 4% -- they were expecting more than double that) that some people did a deeper dive. Turns out that what seems to have happened everywhere it was possible hours have been cut rather than cutting jobs. Hours worked are down 10% nationally.
   8665. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 09:18 AM (#5967966)
#8660 The Philippines is violently enforcing mask rules (and I doubt anybody is advocating this) with … indifferent results. Mask rules work if you get buy in and not otherwise.
on a related note:
The Ramona S. Diaz documentary A Thousand Cuts covers a group of intrepid Filipino journalists—led by the unshakable Maria Ressa—who for years now have been suffering near-constant harassment and undercutting from the controversial crime-fighting President Rodrigo Duterte and his followers. The framing of those attacks might seem awfully familiar to American viewers. Ressa and her team at the website Rappler have been accused of being unpatriotic for criticizing their country’s extrajudicial killings of Filipino citizens. They’ve been called “presstitutes,” who only publish negative stories because they’re being paid by the enemies of the state. When provoked, Duterte’s army of online defenders suggest possible solutions to his Rappler problem, such as: arrest the journalists, bomb their offices, and rape Ressa. It’s all become disturbingly ugly.
...
A Thousand Cuts follows Ressa as she travels to the U.S. for conferences on press freedom, getting feted by the likes of Amal and George Clooney, then shows her returning to the Philippines and getting arrested at the airport.


   8666. Ron J Posted: August 05, 2020 at 09:28 AM (#5967969)
#8665 Right. But that's kind of the point. Duerte has directed a provably brutal police to enforce mask rules. With no particular success.

Now you can argue that this is a consequence of the current state of the Philippines and I wouldn't disagree.
   8667. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 05, 2020 at 09:29 AM (#5967970)
Early indications are that deaths topped out the week of 7/18, but may have stayed about level for the week of 7/25, and stated to fell in the week ending 8/01. (Still early though for CDC data, so this could change.) If this is correct, we should see reported deaths about level this week as last week, and maybe slightly less.

More confirmation that deaths bottomed out in the middle of June: the week ending June 13 or June 20.

CDC provisional all-cause mortality Wednesday reports (because the CDC uses similar Wednesday numbers for their excess death calculations)
Date of report    week ending    (weeks back)   total counted deaths (USA)

5/28              5/23            1              14,955 (after memorial day, so reporting may be extra laggy)
6/03              5/30            1              15,332
6/10              6/06            1              14,037
6/17              6/13            1              16,558
6/24              6/20            1              15,221
7/01              6/27            1              16,520
7/08              7/04            1              13,314 (possible post-July 4 report effect)
7/15              7/11            1              15,492
7/22              7/18            1              16,321
7/29              7/25            1              17.405
8/05              8/01            1              16,771

6/03              5/23            2              35,991
6/10              5/30            2              35,744
6/17              6/06            2              38,045
6/24              6/13            2              35,666
7/01              6/20            2              36,035
7/08              6/27            2              31,694 (possible post-July 4 report effect)
7/15              7/04            2              31,214 (still low, maybe 7/4 was the low point as for reported deaths)
7/22              7/11            2              40,259
7/29              7/18            2              40,694
8/05              7/25            2              40,144

6/10              5/23            3              48,488
6/17              5/30            3              48,712
6/24              6/06            3              47,521
7/01              6/13            3              47,305
7/08              6/20            3              44,367 (same)
7/15              6/27            3              42,450 (same)
7/22              7/04            3              48.439
7/29              7/11            3              50,387
8/05              7/18            3              50,855

6/17              5/23            4              53,843
6/24              5/30            4              52,225
7/01              6/06            4              51,959
7/08              6/13            4              50.554
7/15              6/20            4              49.536
7/22              6/27            4              51.448
7/29              7/04            4              52,489
8/05              7/11            4              54,123

6/24              5/23            5              55,755
7/01              5/30            5              54,302
7/08              6/06            5              53,397
7/15              6/13            5              52.508
7/22              6/20            5              52,933
7/29              6/27            5              53,401
8/05              7/04            5              54,117

7/01              5/23            6              57,238
7/08              5/30            6              55,143
7/15              6/06            6              54,904
7/22              6/13            6              54,315
7/29              6/20            6              54.280
8/05              6/27            6              54,514

7/08              5/23            7              58,141
7/15              5/30            7              56,571
7/22              6/06            7              56,398
7/29              6/13            7              55,275
8/05              6/20            7              55.420

7/15              5/23            8              59,400
7/22              5/30            8              57,962
7/29              6/06            8              57,050
8/05              6/13            8              56.349

7/22              5/23            9              60,330
7/29              5/30            9              58,334
8/05              6/06            9              57.695

7/29              5/23           10              60,641
8/05              5/30           10              58.803

8/05              5/23           11              60,881
   8668. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 09:46 AM (#5967971)
Early indications are that deaths topped out the week of 7/18, but may have stayed about level for the week of 7/25, and stated to fell in the week ending 8/01. (Still early though for CDC data, so this could change.) If this is correct, we should see reported deaths about level this week as last week, and maybe slightly less.
that call is very premature. i understand your instinct to continue hoping we've turned the corner, but it's the wrong lens to use here.

firstly, you're using CDC data, and as has been noted in this thread, the CDC was cut out of the mandatory reporting loop by the white house. maybe they're still able to collect accurate data despite that, but it raises significant questions about the data's provenance.

secondly, from what i can tell in your data, only ~30% of attributable deaths are reported in the first week. that means even if the data is accurate, it's too soon to draw meaningful conclusions from it.

thirdly, and most importantly: even if the data is correct, data doesn't matter in light of situations like the photo in [8653]. there will be no end to the dying as long as scenes like the one in [8653] are common, across (wide swaths of) the country.
   8669. Tony S Posted: August 05, 2020 at 09:52 AM (#5967972)
Late Tuesday afternoon, the negotiators emerged from the day’s negotiating session feeling a little more upbeat. Marginal movement had been achieved.

“We’re not at the point of being close to a deal,” Mnuchin told reporters. “But we did try to agree to set a timeline.”


Forcing working Americans to choose between getting COVID or going broke leads to more civil unrest, which leads to disturbances, which gives the current government something to run against.
   8670. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 10:03 AM (#5967976)
The federal EITC is something that low- and moderate-income working Americans can qualify for. It happens to be the nation’s largest means-tested anti-poverty program, providing an average of $3,191 to millions of eligible families with children. This year, because of a technical glitch with the IRS platform some used to claim the stimulus check, many of these families now have no way to file taxes. This means there’s also no immediate way to claim their EITC payments. The IRS has outlined ways that they can claim their payments. But straightening this out may take several months, and many of the recipients don’t have those months to spare.

What Charles didn’t understand at the time is that the non-filer portal does not provide access to the EITC. In fact, it makes it more challenging for households to claim it at all. The portal is designed to file simple tax returns for those who, like Charles, earn little enough that they are not actually required to file taxes. However, since the IRS does not permit a single person to e-file two tax returns in the same year, Charles was left without a way to claim the EITC in the near future. In June, when her money still hadn’t arrived, Charles sought assistance at a local low-income taxpayer clinic to file taxes and claim her credit. Like millions of others, she was denied. The IRS said she had already filed taxes via the portal and couldn’t do so again electronically.

What’s happening to Charles is happening all over the country


   8671. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 05, 2020 at 10:39 AM (#5967983)

With respect to Iran, it sounds like they are saying the government under-reported the "known" COVID deaths by 2/3 up through July 20. They supposedly knew of 42,000 deaths but they only reported 14,405. How much the "unknown" deaths are above the government's "known" figures remains an open question, but if true the article does confirm what many people have suspected.

I would add that I'm not sure that the secret official data is measuring the same thing as the reported official data. Based on the BBC's chart, there's a drop-off in the secret data in the first half of July which isn't reflected in the official data at the time or since. That implies to me that the secret data is based on date of death, whereas the official data is based on reporting date. If you had access to that same data in a month, you might see that the secret data showed 50,000-60,000 had died by that point. Although I wouldn't call that "underreporting" -- even places that aspire to report all COVID deaths have a reporting lag built in. Eventually if/when deaths decline, the reported data catches up to the actual data.
   8672. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 05, 2020 at 10:39 AM (#5967984)

firstly, you're using CDC data, and as has been noted in this thread, the CDC was cut out of the mandatory reporting loop by the white house. maybe they're still able to collect accurate data despite that, but it raises significant questions about the data's provenance.


Being cut out of the loop shouldn't apply to all-cause mortality, only COVID data, so it shouldn't be relevant here. I guess you never know though.

secondly, from what i can tell in your data, only ~30% of attributable deaths are reported in the first week. that means even if the data is accurate, it's too soon to draw meaningful conclusions from it.


Right, this is a huge deal for the most recent week (currently the week ending 8/1), a pretty big deal for the week prior (the week ending 7/25), and a smaller deal for the weeks before that. For the week ending 7/25 we should already have at least 60% of the data. For the week ending 7/18 we should have at least 80% of the data. The excess death data so far is supporting the case and hospital data so far though, so it looks like the decline is likely real.


thirdly, and most importantly: even if the data is correct, data doesn't matter in light of situations like the photo in [8653]. there will be no end to the dying as long as scenes like the one in [8653] are common, across (wide swaths of) the country.


I'm only talking about a local peak. If deaths take a long time to go down based on such scenes, or even goes back up to another local peak, that isn't directly relevant to what I was talking about. In no way am I suggesting that the coronavirus is even close to over and people no longer need to be diligent. By the time this is all said and done there are likely to be at least several hundred thousand Americans dead, and many more with permanent health problems. Current excess mortality count is getting close to 250,000 now.
   8673. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 05, 2020 at 11:05 AM (#5967987)

Following up on #8639:

Florida reported 225 deaths this morning. 1,294 for the past week. I had predicted 1,200-1,300 a week ago.

So two weeks ago, I predicted 1,000-1,100 and the actual number was 998.
A week ago, I predicted 1,200-1,300 and the actual number was 1,294.

My original best estimate for this week, when I first ran the analysis 2 weeks ago, was 1,279. But that was assuming a constant number of cases; I had revised it down slightly due to fewer cases being reported last week.

It will get a bit tougher now with the noise in the testing data this past week.
   8674. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 01:20 PM (#5968002)
Aaron Rupar @atrupar
Holy ####. Trump says, "My view is the schools should open. This thing is going away. It will go away like things go away, and my view is that schools should be open."

He then falsely claims kids are "almost immune" from Covid. Just stunningly irresponsible stuff.


https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1290985999942778880
   8675. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: August 05, 2020 at 01:46 PM (#5968010)
This thing is going away. It will go away like things go away


He's not wrong -- I can guarantee that it will go away -- for sure when the last human is dead.
   8676. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: August 05, 2020 at 02:07 PM (#5968013)
Not necessarily true. It can spread to other primates; also to cats, ferrets, and golden hamsters. It might not be over until the last golden hamster has gone to the exercise wheel in the sky.
   8677. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 05, 2020 at 02:17 PM (#5968015)
It can spread to other primates; also to cats, ferrets, and golden hamsters.
You left out marlins and cardinals.
   8678. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 02:28 PM (#5968017)
More than 20 years ago, a Black man was given a life sentence for stealing a pair of hedge clippers. Last week, the Louisiana Supreme Court denied that man a request to have his sentence reviewed citing prior bad acts, most of which were nonviolent. Only one of the seven justices on the bench agreed that his sentence should be reviewed—the Black one.
...
Fair Wayne Bryant was 38 years old when he was arrested in Shreveport, La., and has now spent nearly 23 years at Louisiana State Penitentiary at Angola, which happens to be America’s largest maximum-security prison and one that sits on land that used to be home to a slave plantation.
...
“If he lives another 20 years, Louisiana taxpayers will have paid almost one million dollars to punish Mr. Bryant for his failed effort to steal a set of hedge clippers.
...
In the years following Reconstruction, she wrote, Southern states introduced extreme sentences for petty theft, such as stealing cattle and swine, that criminalized recently freed African Americans who were still struggling to come out of poverty.

Much like Black Codes before them, they allowed states to sentence people to forced labor. Under these laws, the Black prison population in the Deep South exploded starting in the 1870s.

“Pig Laws were largely designed to re-enslave African Americans,” Johnson wrote.

   8679. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 05, 2020 at 02:36 PM (#5968018)

Following up on post #8409:

During the discussion, Dr. Eduardo Oliveira, executive medical director of critical care services at the Central Florida division of AdventHealth, said that recovery of hospitalized COVID-19 patients has improved in the past few months.

At this point, about 5% of patients who are hospitalized with COVID-19 symptoms will die, though.

“There were a lot of things we’ve learned over time in caring for those patients,” Oliveira said.



Based on the data I have, this is categorically false. Sure, treatment may have improved a bit. For people hospitalized in FL from March-May, the death rate was 22%. In June, that declined to 14%. Definite improvement.

The first week of July, it was 14%, the second week it was 13%, the third week it was 9%, and the fourth week it was 5%.

So, do we think that Florida doctors miraculously found the cure for COVID in mid-July? Or is this just the usual lag in deaths and reporting?

Tune back in next week to find out...


There's a problem with the Florida data file today, but using yesterday's file we can see that in fact it was only the lag, not an improvement in outcomes:

A week ago, the fatality rate for hospitalized cases from June was 14%. It's now 16%.
The rate for cases from the first week of July was 14%, it's now 16%.
The rate for cases from the second week of July was 13%, it's now 16%.
The rate for cases from the third week of July was 9%, it's now 14%.
The rate for cases from the fourth week of July was 5%, it's now 9%.
And the rate for cases from the past week is 5%.

Basically, the death/hospitalization rate in Florida appears to be 5% in the first week, 9% in the second week, 13-14% in the third week, up to 16% after that. The rate for recent weeks just looks like it has come down due to the lag in deaths/reporting.
   8680. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 02:58 PM (#5968020)
The real problem is not the understandable foibles of individual people. The real problem is the decades long near-total neglect of our public health apparatus; the lack of any coherent national strategy for dealing with the virus; and corporations claiming “we are all in this together,” and then prioritizing their bottom lines instead of their employees and customers. In reframing things this way, I have actually found myself quite touched by the scale and durability of the response of the American people. Citizens and public health officials were able to quickly initiate and maintain a months-long quarantine, significantly slowing the spread of COVID-19. People lost their businesses and received sparse government aid; workers in warehouses and food delivery took on risk, and, instead of getting adequate support, were celebrated as “essential”; health care providers worked countless hours often without PPE in grim settings to provide care and solace. A significant portion of the American people have engaged in a beautiful and heroic communal project. But individual actions work when they are supported by institutions, and contribute to a larger plan. Leaders have failed to turn the initial success into the remission that has been achieved in much of the world—that’s what deserves our outrage.

Since the government has failed at its job, it’s now up to us to pick up the slack as best we can.
   8681. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 05, 2020 at 03:18 PM (#5968023)
The real problem is the decades long near-total neglect of our public health apparatus; the lack of any coherent national strategy for dealing with the virus; and corporations claiming “we are all in this together,” and then prioritizing their bottom lines instead of their employees and customers.
Yes, but...with regards to individuals, I think you have to distinguish between people who are trying to make a good-faith risk assessment based on the highly imperfect information available (Should I go to an outdoor restaurant? What about sitting indoors if they are only seating at 25% capacity with tables distanced? etc.), as opposed to the many individuals who are brazenly ignoring the information we do have in order to make a political statement. They're a big part of the problem too, and deserve a fair share of blame.
   8682. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 03:36 PM (#5968029)
Yes, but...with regards to individuals, I think you have to distinguish between people who are trying to make a good-faith risk assessment based on the highly imperfect information available (Should I go to an outdoor restaurant? What about sitting indoors if they are only seating at 25% capacity with tables distanced? etc.), as opposed to the many individuals who are brazenly ignoring the information we do have in order to make a political statement. They're a big part of the problem too, and deserve a fair share of blame.
true, and i think that's a big part of the reason why i give more benefit of the doubt to the marlins players who went to a strip club, as opposed to the neonazis who threatened to overthrow michigan's state government.
   8683. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 05, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5968030)
Eh, I would say going to a strip club falls into the “clearly stupidly risky” category rather than the “good faith risk assessment” category - especially for people who know they are working in close proximity to others every day. Not as bad as the deliberately flouting people, but not blameless either.
   8684. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 04:53 PM (#5968037)
Q: If a kid came into your classroom sick, are you empowered to say, “Come back when you’re feeling better”?

A: No, I would have no power. I would send them to the office and if the nurse was in the building. And that’s another thing: We have two nurses in our school district for 2,400 kids in five buildings. And I’m sure there are no funds to hire any more.
   8685. Kiko Sakata Posted: August 05, 2020 at 04:53 PM (#5968038)
Eh, I would say going to a strip club falls into the “clearly stupidly risky” category rather than the “good faith risk assessment” category - especially for people who know they are working in close proximity to others every day. Not as bad as the deliberately flouting people, but not blameless either.


I don't know. You and I (well, I, I guess I can't speak for you) have spent hours per day for months here, reading at least summaries of the latest and greatest research and discussed the relative merits of a variety of possible behaviors in good faith with other well-informed people. I think it's probably safe to say that Marlins players have not done that. Now, based on our discussions and what-not, it's clear that there are a variety of activities that are legally open in a variety of locales that absolutely should not be - e.g., strip clubs in Georgia.

But how much blame should somebody have who looks around and sees, "Okay, some things are closed; these are clearly unsafe; I won't do them. But some things were closed but are now open. Presumably, this means that I can now do these things safely. Oh, look, my favorite Atlanta strip club is open; it must be safe. Awesome!" I mean, yeah, from our perspective, this looks like a terrible idea that went predictably badly. But I think more blame falls to the "experts" who decided it was safe to let a strip club open up during a pandemic than to folks who somewhat understandably equate "open" with "must be safe".
   8686. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 05, 2020 at 05:14 PM (#5968040)
Same forecaster's (Youyang Gu) estimations of total cases and IFR is out. As expected, the multiplier for cases is based solely on the test positivity rate, which, frankly, if used alone, is a very poor way to estimate true number of infections.

On this page, we introduce a simple square root function to estimate the true prevalence of COVID-19 in a region based on only the confirmed cases and test positivity rate: true-new-daily-infections = daily-confirmed-cases * (16 * (positivity-rate)^(0.5) + 2.5). We will also introduce the implied infection fatality rate (IIFR), which is a metric derived by taking a region’s reported deaths and dividing it by the true infections estimate (after accounting for lag).


As expected, he is using reported deaths rather than excess, which will put him off by a significant factor. You could quibble with the lag used (28 days from reported case to reported death), but it's not unreasonable. The biggest problem, by far, is the function that determines multiplier solely from positive test percentage. This is obviously insufficient both theoretically and empirically. Theoretically it must be deficient because it doesn't take into account the background prevalence and the test saturation. For example, testing 5 people and getting 1 positive is massively different from testing 5 million people and getting 1 million hits. Similarly, testing 5 people and getting 1 hit in an environment where you expect approximately 1% of people have been infected is massively different from getting the same result in an environment where you expect approximately 50% of people have been infected. (There is a bit of circularity in that last point, but it's still critical for new infections estimates purposes). Those are just two obvious factors--there are certainly many more (such as differences in how tests are conducted and reported across states and across times).

In practice the results make no sense either, finding, for example, currently 50% of Miami-Dade as having been infected, and half of those in the past few weeks, and an IFR in Miami-Dade of around 0.1%. Furthermore, the results break down totally with mini-stress tests. For example, the storm in Florida reduced positive tests by 50%, but ALSO reduced positive test rate. In other words, as soon as the storm hit, the estimates of new infections per day in Florida (reported, not acquired, which had to have happened before the storm) immediately fell 50%. Since we know the actual number of new infections cannot have changed much in a day, this shows that how tests are performed has a huge effect on the multiplier.

The results don't pass the smell test. It should be a red flag that the implied IFR dropped from 0.6% to 0.25% over the course of a few weeks when the main thing that was changing was that the number of tests being performed was massively increasing in the US.
   8687. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 05:31 PM (#5968046)
   8673. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 05, 2020 at 11:05 AM (#5967987)

Following up on #8639:

Florida reported 225 deaths this morning. 1,294 for the past week. I had predicted 1,200-1,300 a week ago.

So two weeks ago, I predicted 1,000-1,100 and the actual number was 998.
A week ago, I predicted 1,200-1,300 and the actual number was 1,294.

My original best estimate for this week, when I first ran the analysis 2 weeks ago, was 1,279. But that was assuming a constant number of cases; I had revised it down slightly due to fewer cases being reported last week.

It will get a bit tougher now with the noise in the testing data this past week.
clearly, your projection system passes the "marcel" test.
   8688. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 05, 2020 at 05:33 PM (#5968048)
But how much blame should somebody have who looks around and sees, "Okay, some things are closed; these are clearly unsafe; I won't do them. But some things were closed but are now open. Presumably, this means that I can now do these things safely. Oh, look, my favorite Atlanta strip club is open; it must be safe. Awesome!" I mean, yeah, from our perspective, this looks like a terrible idea that went predictably badly. But I think more blame falls to the "experts" who decided it was safe to let a strip club open up during a pandemic than to folks who somewhat understandably equate "open" with "must be safe".

Right; he's thinking in a highly patriotic Economy First! fashion.
   8689. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 05, 2020 at 05:48 PM (#5968050)
As mentioned on a prior page, for Miami-Dade to have been 50% infected already implies zero mitigation by the populace, which flies in the face of the rest of the study, which sensibly points out that the virus recedes when people's mitigation behaviors, in combination with the background immunity, cause R to go below 1. This appears to be what we are seeing in places like Arizona. Probably the most important factor is the change in behavior, but another important factor is that a lot of the people with the most risky behavior have now already gotten infected, can't get infected again, and going forward won't be able to pass it on as well, making it harder for the virus to propagate.

For example, if you think 10-15% of Arizona has gotten the virus now, it's likely to have been a high percentage of the people most at risk (say 50% of the top 10%, 25% of the next 10%, and 10% of the nest 30%, and 5% of the next 50%). Take out 50% of the people most likely to get infected or infect others, and the virus becomes harder to spread. Combine that with a rise in mitigation and you send R below 1.
   8690. Snowboy Posted: August 05, 2020 at 06:01 PM (#5968053)
I got caught up on the Cardinals situation. 13 players&staff; tested positive, so they quarantined for five days. They've now had two straight days without a positive test, so now they're out of q. and traveling to their next series.
How often is MLB testing? It seems to me that everyone got better within three days? The article didn't say if any of them were sick enough to go to hospital. But unless the Cards have a vaccine, that seems like a pretty quick and good result. And it can't be "well, that's what we'd expect from professional athletes" because not all of them were, many were staffers.
   8691. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 06:09 PM (#5968054)
We still don’t know what — if any single factor — is behind the explosion. First, it was declared purely an accident. Then the U.S. president told reporters, without showing any evidence, that he believed it to be an attack. However, what we do know is this: somehow 2,750 metric tons of confiscated explosive ammonium nitrate were being stored since 2014 in an unsecured warehouse close to a busy port, residential buildings, and a populated downtown city. According to the New York Times, officials were aware of the risks but did nothing to address it. Six years of mismanagement, one second to burn.

   8692. Kiko Sakata Posted: August 05, 2020 at 06:17 PM (#5968056)
13 players&staff; tested positive, so they quarantined for five days. They've now had two straight days without a positive test


I mean, hopefully, yay, everybody's healthy. But man, this just goes against everything I thought we knew about this disease. I thought this thing lasted for at least a couple of weeks and occasionally lingered for a month or more. It really makes me wonder how accurate these tests are, although with 13 guys, what are the odds of 13 false positives and/or 13 false negatives?

EDIT: Or is that just saying that they had two days with no NEW positives and the team is traveling, but without the 13 guys with the COVID?
   8693. Snowboy Posted: August 05, 2020 at 06:30 PM (#5968059)
Good q, Kiko. Made me check. Standby, I'll post a link and excerpt.
   8694. Hot Wheeling American Posted: August 05, 2020 at 06:33 PM (#5968060)
Love coming here everyday to slate.com
   8695. Laser Man Posted: August 05, 2020 at 06:33 PM (#5968061)
[8692] The 7 Cardinals players who tested positive are not traveling with the team, and are not part of the "no positive test" group. Those 7 players will be replaced on the roster this weekend.
   8696. Snowboy Posted: August 05, 2020 at 06:34 PM (#5968062)
   8697. Snowboy Posted: August 05, 2020 at 06:37 PM (#5968063)
<dble post>
   8698. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 05, 2020 at 06:37 PM (#5968064)
Just wanted to reiterate how the supposed "harvesting effect" (the virus kills only those about to die anyway) remains contradicted by the data. NYC, the one place in the country you would really expect to see this effect if anywhere, still hasn't had a week since February where the total deaths are less than expected. If the harvesting effect were a major factor we'd have expected catch up weeks where there were fewer deaths than expected by now.
   8699. Snowboy Posted: August 05, 2020 at 06:38 PM (#5968066)
ST. LOUIS -- After five days quarantined in their downtown Milwaukee hotel, after learning that nearly a fourth of their roster and a significant portion of their staff had tested positive for COVID-19, and after having to rework the regular-season schedule to play 55 games in 52 days, the Cardinals received good news Tuesday evening.

They had been cleared to get back on the baseball field.

In the final step needed to leave their hotel and travel again, the Cardinals’ test results returned negative for the second straight day Tuesday. After 13 members of the traveling party tested positive for COVID-19 over the weekend and left Milwaukee to quarantine at home, the rest of the team will fly back to St. Louis]


Kiko, thanks for catching that. I read the story on the At-Bat app. Online is a fuller version, and author is more clear and full. It's no NEW positives for two days. And as Laser Man has added, the sick players are not traveling, and are presumably still sick.
   8700. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 06:39 PM (#5968067)
Love coming here everyday to slate.com
in fairness, i do leave out most of the cooking recipes.
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