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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 9761 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   8701. Snowboy Posted: August 05, 2020 at 06:41 PM (#5968068)
I spent the day thinking "how did they get better in 3 days?" The article in the App didn't mention the sick people not going on with the team to Chicago, but still in q.
Flip?
   8702. Snowboy Posted: August 05, 2020 at 06:49 PM (#5968069)
Challenges still remain. It will have been a week since their last game, and the roster will be missing seven players, including three All-Stars -- right-hander Carlos Martínez, catcher Yadier Molina and shortstop Paul DeJong. Molina and DeJong were two of six players to announce Tuesday that they tested positive.


The above is in the fuller version online, it wasn't in the App version. Thanks for helping me figure that out.
   8703. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 07:07 PM (#5968072)
Judy, from ICE Fugitive Operations—they go out and do the actual arrests—is nothing like those ghouls from the horror stories you’ve seen on the news, wrenching crying children from their parents at the border and laughing about it. She’s a parent herself. “I’m not part of that separating families stuff, we don’t do that,” she says in one scene. In the very next she stands by while one of her officers pulls a hysterical 4-year-old girl off of her father’s leg.

   8704. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 05, 2020 at 08:10 PM (#5968076)
clearly, your projection system passes the "marcel" test.

Well, I think it does a lot more than that. Getting the past two weeks “right” gives me some confidence that the longer-dated forecasts and conclusions are correct.
   8705. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 08:37 PM (#5968078)
Well, I think it does a lot more than that. Getting the past two weeks “right” gives me some confidence that the longer-dated forecasts and conclusions are correct.
i don't know if it's meaningfully better than a marcel projection, but either way, the comparison to marcel wasn't meant as a slight.

we've seen a lot of laughably bad projections being released by experts and professionals during this pandemic, and even though beating marcel may not sound impressive, it is a surprisingly high bar that they are repeatedly failing to meet.
   8706. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: August 05, 2020 at 08:56 PM (#5968080)
Judy, from ICE Fugitive Operations—....

Why do you think this is a place to post about and link any and everything that aggrieves you?
   8707. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 09:15 PM (#5968083)
Why do you think this is a place to post about and link any and everything that aggrieves you?
because my grievances are more important to me than your passive-aggressive pettiness.
   8708. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 05, 2020 at 09:49 PM (#5968087)
Texas closed out the day with 236 deaths and 8706 new cases (State page) or 220 deaths 9625 new cases (Worldometer).
The Fort Bend County site noted that its 692 were a combination of new reports from the county plus backlog from the state.
God bless anyone trying to make sense of the numbers. Tho as the Post notes, Texas isn't alone in its data messes; That drop in new cases is muddied by reporting, testing snags in big states
   8709. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: August 05, 2020 at 10:02 PM (#5968090)
because my grievances are more important to me than your passive-aggressive pettiness.

So you're just a selfish POS.

(Was that passive-aggressive too?)
   8710. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 05, 2020 at 10:29 PM (#5968097)
While masks are not mandatory in the school’s reopening plan (the district notes that masks are not an enforceable part of the dress code), they are expected in any situation in which social distancing is not possible, such as class changes. The district plan also encourages parents to drive their children to school in private vehicles. Students who ride buses will have to sit one per seat unless they are in the same family.

As for what happens when there’s a case of the coronavirus in a child’s classroom, the district states it will notify parents only when their child has been within six feet for more than 10 minutes with a positive case.

Blount County, TN
   8711. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 10:29 PM (#5968098)
So you're just a selfish POS.

what principle do you think you're defending here?


if it's that important to you, feel free to post excerpts and links to articles that are pro-child abuse.
   8712. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 05, 2020 at 10:32 PM (#5968099)
stiggles, the politics thread was shut down by the site operators. Lets not try to make this the politics thread.
   8713. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 10:48 PM (#5968101)
stiggles, the politics thread was shut down by the site operators. Lets not try to make this the politics thread.

i cannot accept the assertion that child abuse and police brutality are political issues.

i understand if you don't want to see it in this thread because it detracts from tweeted videos of the republican president saying that the rona will go away in just a few weeks, but that doesn't make it "politics" or "political".
   8714. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 05, 2020 at 10:54 PM (#5968102)
Facebook has finally done the least it could do, for the first time ever deleting a post by Donald Trump for spreading misinformation about the novel coronavirus. Twitter in turn restricted Trump’s re-election campaign account from tweeting at all until it deleted an identical post.
...
In the specific clip that Facebook and Twitter said violated their policies, the president lied that children “are almost—and I would almost say definitely—but almost immune from this disease.” Trump added children “don’t have a problem, they just don’t have a problem.”

   8715. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: August 06, 2020 at 01:07 AM (#5968110)
feel free to post excerpts and links to articles that are pro-child abuse.

No, I don't feel free to do that, because this is not a thread about child abuse. (Cue your nonsense about how sending kids to school constitutes child abuse because in 70 years they might have health problems.). I'll save my pro-child abuse links for the appropriate forum.
   8716. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 06, 2020 at 06:26 AM (#5968114)
God bless anyone trying to make sense of the numbers. Tho as the Post notes, Texas isn't alone in its data messes; That drop in new cases is muddied by reporting, testing snags in big states

Blomberg, I think I said the other day that Texas’ “true” number is probably ~200-250 per day right now, once you get past the noise from the change in reporting methodology, errors and system outages. That’s where the trendline from before the reporting change would have taken them, and I don’t think they are quite at the point yet where the leveling off in new cases will translate to leveling off in deaths.

The Florida case numbers for the past week are definitely understated. I can see this in the CFRs for people diagnosed this week — the CFRs are higher in just about every age group (except 90+) implying that they reported a lower percentage of the cases this past week. My guess is cases were actually down 5-10% from the prior week.
   8717. Tony S Posted: August 06, 2020 at 09:15 AM (#5968124)
Well, this was not unexpected.

Managing the narrative is far, far more important to authorities than managing the pandemic.

Shooting the messenger is a time-honored American tradition, but this isn't deadly to just the messenger.

   8718. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 06, 2020 at 10:08 AM (#5968132)
No, I don't feel free to do that, because this is not a thread about child abuse. (Cue your nonsense about how sending kids to school constitutes child abuse because in 70 years they might have health problems.). I'll save my pro-child abuse links for the appropriate forum.
"i haven't murdered my wife yet, but only because it's against the law. i'll just wait to murder her until we're 5 miles off-shore."
   8719. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 06, 2020 at 10:43 AM (#5968139)
(Cue your nonsense about how sending kids to school constitutes child abuse because in 70 years they might have health problems.).


There are also the children who will die unnecessarily*, and the ones who will have to live with the guilt of having killed their parents or grandparents or teachers by spreading the illness to them.

*Estimates vary, and while the mortality rate for children is low, it’s not zero. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that it’s around 0.3%. There were a little over 300 kids in my high school graduating class, and around 1,400-1,500 for the high school as a whole. In the event of a widespread outbreak, well, you do the math...
   8720. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 06, 2020 at 10:51 AM (#5968140)
During the three month period from April to June 2020, Nintendo’s operating profits increased by 427.7 percent.

In its latest financial earnings statement, Nintendo revealed its year-on-year sales increased by 108.1 percent, while the company’s net profit is up 541.3 percent.
link
   8721. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 06, 2020 at 11:06 AM (#5968142)
Last week, Vice President Mike Pence and Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, missing only two of their fellow Horsemen of the Apocalypse, visited Thales Academy in Apex, North Carolina, touting the network of private schools for reopening and describing the network as “in the forefront of reopening schools in America.”
...
According to the Raleigh News & Observer, the entire fourth grade class at Thales Academy’s school in Wake Forest as well as teachers will have to quarantine for two weeks after one of their classmates tested positive for covid-19 last Friday. This isn’t the first time schools in the network have had students or teachers test positive for covid-19 since they reopened earlier in July—shortly after opening their doors for the school year, a staff member from Tennessee who was visiting its Raleigh campus was found to have covid-19, which forced the school to shut down for a day so it could perform a deep cleaning, and last week, a kindergartener at the private school’s Knightdale campus also tested positive for covid-19.
...
Thales Academy’s own experience shows why those “careful steps” aren’t enough. According to Clark, and as reported by the News & Observer, the fourth graders diagnosed with covid-19 showed no symptoms while at school and passed daily temperature and symptom checks
   8722. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 06, 2020 at 11:14 AM (#5968143)
Blomberg, I think I said the other day

Then God bless you, Dave, and I'll rely in your guidance. But it would be nice to have good, real-time infection numbers since they're supposed to drive policy.
   8723. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 06, 2020 at 11:20 AM (#5968144)
According to the Raleigh News & Observer, the entire fourth grade class at Thales Academy’s school in Wake Forest as well as teachers will have to quarantine for two weeks after one of their classmates tested positive for covid-19 last Friday.


If they followed the Georgia (within six feet for 15 minutes) or Tennessee (within six feet for 10 minutes) rule, they could go on like nothing happened. In fact, there's probably no reason why the infected kid can't keep attending under those rules.
   8724. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: August 06, 2020 at 11:23 AM (#5968145)
While masks are not mandatory in the school’s reopening plan (the district notes that masks are not an enforceable part of the dress code),


The district is willing to enforce a dress code, but not mask wearing? What a pathetic bunch of ####### #######.

EDIT: Nannie-bot is rather lax I see.
   8725. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: August 06, 2020 at 11:26 AM (#5968146)
Well, this was not unexpected.

Managing the narrative is far, far more important to authorities than managing the pandemic.

Shooting the messenger is a time-honored American tradition, but this isn't deadly to just the messenger.


Wow, that school administration is really behind on how online media works aren't they? Broadcast a clear, direct threat to all students and they don't figure ONE student will record and post it?
   8726. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 06, 2020 at 11:58 AM (#5968149)
According to data released today by the Department of Labor, about 500,000 more Americans went on unemployment between July 11 and 18, pushing that number above 31 million in total. In economics, it’s sometimes the case that big number equals good. This is not such a case.

   8727. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 06, 2020 at 12:02 PM (#5968152)
There are also the children who will die unnecessarily*, and the ones who will have to live with the guilt of having killed their parents or grandparents or teachers by spreading the illness to them.

*Estimates vary, and while the mortality rate for children is low, it’s not zero. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that it’s around 0.3%. There were a little over 300 kids in my high school graduating class, and around 1,400-1,500 for the high school as a whole. In the event of a widespread outbreak, well, you do the math...


It's difficult to have a rational conversation about anything that involves the death of children. I think you're looking at it the right way but the fatality rate you assume obviously affects the decision. I agree, if it was 0.3% you probably wouldn't send kids to school, at least not in places that had significant outbreaks -- not without waiting at least a bit longer for a vaccine.

But what if it's more like 0.03%? That's the rate for 5-14 year olds in FL if you assume a 3-week lag in death reporting, even if they identified every COVID case. In Sweden, they've reported only one COVID death under the age of 20. In NYC, the rate for 0-17 year olds is 0.07% and again, that's based on confirmed cases -- but we know they missed a large majority of the cases in NYC so the actual rate is lower.

I certainly think we should have an honest conversation about the risks of reopening schools vs. keeping them closed. And I'm not necessarily arguing for reopening them -- on another forum I argue with people on the other side who basically say that no children will die of COVID, which is obviously false. Plus there's the risk of kids contracting and spreading the disease throughout the community, a risk that we don't fully understand yet, and potential risk of other long-term health consequences.
   8728. PreservedFish Posted: August 06, 2020 at 12:07 PM (#5968154)
I was going to say. I think that 0.3% is wildly inaccurate.
   8729. Tony S Posted: August 06, 2020 at 12:31 PM (#5968156)
According to the Raleigh News & Observer, the entire fourth grade class at Thales Academy’s school in Wake Forest as well as teachers will have to quarantine for two weeks after one of their classmates tested positive for covid-19 last Friday.



If they followed the Georgia (within six feet for 15 minutes) or Tennessee (within six feet for 10 minutes) rule, they could go on like nothing happened. In fact, there's probably no reason why the infected kid can't keep attending under those rules.


Are there different rules for private vs. public schools?
   8730. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 06, 2020 at 12:45 PM (#5968157)
Are there different rules for private vs. public schools?

Leave room for the Holy Spirit.
   8731. BrianBrianson Posted: August 06, 2020 at 12:47 PM (#5968158)
Yeah, 0.3% is at least an order of magnitude too high. 0.3% is like the mortality rate for people in their 40s
   8732. tshipman Posted: August 06, 2020 at 12:54 PM (#5968160)
But what if it's more like 0.03%? That's the rate for 5-14 year olds in FL if you assume a 3-week lag in death reporting, even if they identified every COVID case. In Sweden, they've reported only one COVID death under the age of 20. In NYC, the rate for 0-17 year olds is 0.07% and again, that's based on confirmed cases -- but we know they missed a large majority of the cases in NYC so the actual rate is lower.


I think that the range is probably too wide.

There is probably a data-based case for sending kids younger than 10 back to school, assuming we can do stuff to keep teachers safe.

There is probably not a case for sending older kids back to school, and in particular late teens to early 20s seems to be particularly at risk of super-spreader events.
   8733. Tony S Posted: August 06, 2020 at 12:55 PM (#5968161)
The North Paulding High dress code. (Scroll down to page 10.)

It's pretty strict and detailed. But requiring a mask (until we get this pandemic under control) is somehow a bridge too far.
   8734. SoSH U at work Posted: August 06, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5968162)
Are there different rules for private vs. public schools?


Below are the rules for the Archdiocese of Chicago. My wife is a Catholic school principal here, and I can tell you there is no simple answer for schools, public or private. For every parent who doesn't want their child in school, there's another who insists on it.

All students over the age of 2 and school employees will be required to wear masks while indoors. Masks may only be removed during designated activities (such as lunch and recess) and only then if students remain physically distant.

Students will be assigned to a “cohort”, which will correspond to their homeroom class and will remain with those same classmates throughout the day. Students within a cohort will remain physically as far apart as possible to prevent the spread of illness.

Schools will provide new pick-up and drop-off procedures, walking routes within the buildings and other measures to limit the physical interaction of students.

Parents will be asked to take their children’s temperatures daily. Temperature checks will also occur as students enter the school building every day.

Schools will adhere to infection protocols, requiring any student who presents symptoms of COVID-19 and/or tests positive for the virus to quarantine and seek medical attention before returning to class.

Finally, families who are not ready for their children to return to classrooms will still have the option for online learning.
   8735. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 06, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5968163)
... and there's also the range of outcomes below death but worse than flu for kids as well. But navigating that uncertainty is only one of many things we as a society didn't prepare for over the summer ... most obviously, there was little concerted effort to thing through online education or simply getting kids access to devices and broadband or wifi. In part, it was more pleasant to believe that the virus would go away, as things do, even when it was obvious by the summer's start that it wouldn't, and in part because no money was made available for equipment and training.
   8736. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 06, 2020 at 01:02 PM (#5968164)
Newsweek @Newsweek
50% of white Americans would vote for Trump if election were held today

Absolutely no one should be shocked by this
— Jemele Hill (@jemelehill) August 6, 2020
   8737. Jay Z Posted: August 06, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5968165)
There are also the children who will die unnecessarily*, and the ones who will have to live with the guilt of having killed their parents or grandparents or teachers by spreading the illness to them.


Sorry, not going there with the guilt.

Girlfriend lives in a more remote area. Yes, they take COVID-19 less seriously there. Her daughter is going to be a senior in high school. Has her own car and part time job. GF is divorced so daughter is not always there.

Daughter went to a party where some of the kids contracted COVID-19. Daughter got tested and is negative, as did my GF. Grandpa is in an old age home that has been on lockdown since March. So no physical contact with his family since then.

You need to be conscious of what we are attempting. Yes, I think the equation is different for someone young than for 40-50-60+. It just is. With Spanish Flu, the peaks were about a couple of months, those were the times when actions mattered. With COVID-19, it's been close to 5 months already, and apparently you need to keep shelter in place or close to it on a permanent basis to prevent spread. That is FAR different than what we have attempted in the past to my knowledge. So I don't think the guilt trips will take hold, and they shouldn't.
   8738. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 06, 2020 at 01:49 PM (#5968169)
With COVID-19, it's been close to 5 months already, and apparently you need to keep shelter in place or close to it on a permanent basis to prevent spread.

No, that's not true. Too many European countries who had plans and stuck with them prove otherwise. The president has been the greatest obstacle to sane policy, and many governors have followed his lead. Add in the conspiracy theorists, evangelicals, "libertarians," and people who can't/wont pay attention, and you get the US.

But don't worry, one day you'll wake up and will have disappeared, as things do. You won't even remember that it happened.
   8739. pikepredator Posted: August 06, 2020 at 01:53 PM (#5968171)
With COVID-19, it's been close to 5 months already, and apparently you need to keep shelter in place or close to it on a permanent basis to prevent spread.


Disagree. At least here in the US, it's been five months of a haphazard, uncoordinated response that included our leader telling people to revolt against governors that tried to enforce hunkering down and wearing masks, because soon it would "go away like magic." That's not how it works.

Shelter in place (or close to it) on a permanent basis isn't required. What is? Locking down hard for a period of time (4 weeks, maybe?), and then as a society, being smart about wearing a mask and keeping our distance/sanitizing/contact tracing, while re-opening in a pragmatic way. Sharing information about what is working, acknowledging we are learning on the fly, so mistakes will be made (and said mistakes aren't failures of science). It requires a disciplined application of scientific knowledge to keep COVID-19 at bay, and America isn't the place for that right now.
   8740. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: August 06, 2020 at 01:58 PM (#5968173)
Newsweek @Newsweek
50% of white Americans would vote for Trump if election were held today

Absolutely no one should be shocked by this
— Jemele Hill (@jemelehill) August 6, 2020


I am kind of shocked. At least by my facebook feed, this seems low to me.
   8741. Jay Z Posted: August 06, 2020 at 02:02 PM (#5968174)
Disagree. At least here in the US, it's been five months of a haphazard, uncoordinated response that included our leader telling people to revolt against governors that tried to enforce hunkering down and wearing masks, because soon it would "go away like magic." That's not how it works.


No, but that's what someone in the USA has to live with.

In New Zealand, teenagers don't have to worry about "you killed grandma." Here, they do.
   8742. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 06, 2020 at 02:06 PM (#5968175)
In New Zealand, teenagers don't have to worry about "you killed grandma." Here, they do.


In New Zealand they have functional government. They also have good health care for all citizens. They also have cops that don't kill people, particularly brown people for no good reason. Same in Germany and lots of other civilized countries.

But if you want to be part of the problem, then jump in with both feet, as you did.
   8743. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 06, 2020 at 02:31 PM (#5968177)
I am kind of shocked. At least by my facebook feed, this seems low to me.
you don't block enough people.
   8744. Ron J Posted: August 06, 2020 at 02:31 PM (#5968178)
With COVID-19, it's been close to 5 months already, and apparently you need to keep shelter in place or close to it on a permanent basis to prevent spread.


You can look to your neighbor to the north. Starting from the same basic point as the US, Canada is largely reopened with minimal issues. 95 new cases yesterday in Ontario (13.6 million pop). Key being setting (and adhering to) targets before each stage of reopening.

   8745. pikepredator Posted: August 06, 2020 at 02:50 PM (#5968179)
In New Zealand, teenagers don't have to worry about "you killed grandma." Here, they do.


I assume it's meant to wake people up - but I'm all too aware it won't work, any more than any other attempts to get people to take precautions has worked. The ongoing spread of COVID in the US (and thus the recent uptick in cases and deaths) is mostly due to the masses of people who aren't taking any precautions and are flaunting/rejecting the advice of public health professionals. Certainly, those people have no obligation to feel any remorse or to care at all about the people who remain out of work, who've gotten sick, who've died as a result of the community spread caused by their collective behavior . . . but I think it's hard for people who do care about the well-being of others to grasp that utter lack of remorse. And so the people who care hope that, by pointing out "hey, by going about your regular lives and going to beaches without masks and stuff, you're helping this thing spread like wildfire and people are dying", other people will start to care. What the mask-wearers don't realize is how futile their efforts are. Those responsible for massive community spread don't GAF about the hundreds of thousands who've gotten sick recently. They honestly believe that wearing masks make people sick, that China is responsible for all this, and/or that being asked to wear a mask to protect fellow Americans is an attack on freedom.

A large portion of the people who are angry we aren't getting back to normal faster are the same people responsible for the resurgence that is preventing us from getting back to normal faster. It's dizzying, like watching a small child who gets angry that they can't pick up the rock that they keep kicking out of reach just before they try again to pick it up.
   8746. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 06, 2020 at 03:01 PM (#5968182)
A large portion of the people who are angry we aren't getting back to normal faster are the same people responsible for the resurgence that is preventing us from getting back to normal faster. It's dizzying, like watching a small child who gets angry that they can't pick up the rock that they keep kicking out of reach just before they try again to pick it up.
the problem is a lack of immediate feedback. when you touch a stove, it's hot; when you shove a paperclip into a power socket, you move to a new foster home. there's nothing like that here. when you refuse to wear a mask, there's noone around to hit you with a rolled newspaper, or to stab you in the calf with a lawn dart.

as a result, the people who are most to blame for america's failures don't even consider that they're responsible for this.
   8747. Jay Z Posted: August 06, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5968183)
But if you want to be part of the problem, then jump in with both feet, as you did.


What the hell.
   8748. Srul Itza Posted: August 06, 2020 at 03:23 PM (#5968186)
Hawaii Department of Health this morning reported two new coronavirus-related deaths today on Oahu, bringing the statewide death tally to 29.

An elderly female resident at a Pearl City nursing home and an elderly man, both had underlying health conditions and were hospitalized when they died, officials said.

“The passing of this man really demonstrates how rapidly and invisibly COVID-19 is spreading through our communities, particularly on O‘ahu and particularly associated with clusters,” State Epidemiologist Sarah Park said in a news release. “A close contact of this individual attended a spin class at a gym taught by a person linked to the Hawaiian Airlines cluster.”


This is pretty small beans everywhere else, but out here, after going from May 3 to June 27 without a fatality, to have 9 since July 13, and having triple digit cases every day, is getting people very much on edge. Me included.
   8749. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 06, 2020 at 03:30 PM (#5968187)
Governor DeWine of Ohio Tests Positive Before a Planned Trump Visit

Throw him out of the party; he's never bowed to his leader.
   8750. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 06, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5968188)
The Unique U.S. Failure to Control the Virus

Good analysis. trigger alert: contains science, reason, and suggestions that the US isn't utopia.

The huge demand for tests has overwhelmed medical laboratories, and many need days — or even up to two weeks — to produce results. “That really is not useful for public health and medical management,” Ms. Rivers added. While people are waiting for their results, many are also spreading the virus.
In Belgium recently, test results have typically come back in 48 to 72 hours. In Germany and Greece, it is two days. In France, the wait is often 24 hours.

It's less than 24 hours here if you're an essential baseball or basketball worker.
   8751. BrianBrianson Posted: August 06, 2020 at 03:53 PM (#5968189)

There is probably a data-based case for sending kids younger than 10 back to school, assuming we can do stuff to keep teachers safe.

There is probably not a case for sending older kids back to school, and in particular late teens to early 20s seems to be particularly at risk of super-spreader events.


No, it depends on what else you're doing. If the infection is raging and you're closing everything buy grocery stores and pharmacies, the data suggests you can probably throw the elementary school kids on that list.

If the strip clubs and casions are open, you might as well open the high schools, because closing them won't make a meaningful difference.

If you're somewhere in between ... elementary schools are safer to open than high schools, but look at exactly where you are and what the trade offs are to decide if one, both, or neither are in your best interests (though, yeah, if you're letting adults congregate indoors, closing elementary schools is probably silly)
   8752. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 06, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5968190)
If the strip clubs and casions are open, you might as well open the high schools, because closing them won't make a meaningful difference.

that's a godawful attitude to have.

but then again, i guess it's the same reason why, whenever anti-gay priests happen to get arrested while having sex with a male prostitute in some by the hour motel, they also happen to be high on meth and coke and bath salts. in for a penny, and whatnot. still, a terrible ####### attitude to have.
   8753. BrianBrianson Posted: August 06, 2020 at 04:06 PM (#5968192)
So, I did try to figure out what the actual fatality rate for people under 20 was, but every data set I found was obviously shot noise dominated so I eventually gave up.

But I love data, so in France, for instance, with ~30k COVID deaths, last I saw 3 of those were aged 0-9, and 4 were aged 10-19. There's around 8 million French people aged 0-9, and the infection rate overall is 5-10%, call it ~3% for 0-9s, or ~250 000, so a case fatality rate of about ~0.001% That's probably good to within a factor of a few, but don't trust it beyond order unity uncertainty, for sure.

Them serving to spread to others is a larger concern, but if you're opening les bars et les ballets, the adultes sont bien fucké du même.
   8754. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: August 06, 2020 at 04:22 PM (#5968194)
They also have cops that don't kill people, particularly brown people for no good reason. Same in Germany and lots of other civilized countries.


It may be truer than in some other countries, but here in Germany, I wish that were truer still. German law-enforcement is generally heavy-handed but not too often unnecessarily violent; however, there have been some horror stories.
   8755. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 06, 2020 at 04:24 PM (#5968195)
American Academy of Pediatrics

Summary of Findings Reported on 7/30/20:

(Note: Data represent cumulative counts since states began reporting)
Cumulative Number of Child COVID-19 Cases*
338,982 total child COVID-19 cases reported, and children represented 8.8% (338,982/3,835,573) of all cases
Overall rate: 447 cases per 100,000 children in the population

Change in Child COVID-19 Cases, 7/16/20 – 7/30/20
97,078 new child cases reported from 7/16-7/30 (241,904 to 338,982), a 40% increase in child cases

Testing (8 states reported)
Children made up 3%-11.3% of total state tests, and 3.6%-18.4% of children tested were tested positive

Hospitalizations (20 states and NYC reported)
Children were 0.6%-3.7% of total reported hospitalizations, and 0.6%-8.9% of all child COVID-19 cases resulted in hospitalization

Mortality (43 states and NYC reported)
Children were 0%-0.8% of all COVID-19 deaths, and 20 states reported zero child deaths
In states reporting, 0%-0.3% of all child COVID-19 cases resulted in death

The underlined datum is interesting. More kids in circulation over the summer, or something else?


   8756. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 06, 2020 at 04:26 PM (#5968196)
there have been some horror stories

I seem to recall some rogue sect of the police in one area uncovered a couple years ago that was targeting primarily Turks.
   8757. Tony S Posted: August 06, 2020 at 05:04 PM (#5968201)

Power-tripping overgrown adolescents gravitate to police forces everywhere. It's not a singularily American phenomenon. (Doesn't mean it's not a problem, of course.)
   8758. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 06, 2020 at 05:15 PM (#5968203)
I seem to recall some rogue sect of the police in one area uncovered a couple years ago that was targeting primarily Turks.
secret police? in germany? that's unpossible.
   8759. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 06, 2020 at 05:23 PM (#5968206)
It really cannot be understated how much the president hates the Postal Service; as far as his personal obsessions go, it ranks only a bit below Crooked Hillary and Fake News CNN. He’s long accused USPS of giving a sweetheart shipping deal to Amazon, which he also despises, because CEO Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post. In 2018, his administration unveiled a plan to eventually privatize the agency, an idea many conservatives support, though the Treasury Department eventually walked it back a bit. This April, Trump called USPS a mismanaged “joke” and said he wouldn’t approve any coronavirus bailout money for it unless it massively raised its postage rates on packages.

It’s not 100 percent clear why Trump loathes America’s mail carriers so strongly. There’s the Bezos factor, of course. There’s the fact that he’s fairly close to UPS, which he’s called “one of the most amazing companies on Earth,” and has long lobbied for the Postal Service to raise package prices (which would let private shippers steal some of its business away).
...
USPS is reportedly trying to almost triple what it charges states to mail ballots to voters.

   8760. Snowboy Posted: August 06, 2020 at 05:55 PM (#5968211)
Interesting [8734] SOSH_U about Chicago catholic schools intend to open for attendance with guidelines, restrictions, recommendations, etc.
I read yday that Chicago public schools will start the school year all virtual
So many different opinions, and divisions, about this virus. Even within the same city.
   8761. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: August 06, 2020 at 06:27 PM (#5968215)
Newsweek @Newsweek
50% of white Americans would vote for Trump if election were held today
I'm surprised it's that low. On most of my feed, people aren't mad that the President lies everyday, they're mad that the media keeps reporting the lies.
   8762. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 06, 2020 at 08:03 PM (#5968220)
Robert Mackey @RobertMackey

The White House is playing "Live and Let Die" before Trump's arrival at a thinly disguised campaign event in Ohio that the state's governor cannot attend because he just came down with Covid-19, the disease that killed over 1,400 Americans yesterday.

twitter.com/RobertMackey/status/1291453071428472832
   8763. Srul Itza Posted: August 06, 2020 at 09:10 PM (#5968225)
And the other shoe drops in Hawaii. My office reports as follows:

Governor David Ige -
New COVID mandates include:
• 14 day quarantine for inter-island travel. (effective Tuesday August 11)
• Oahu - will reinstate restrictions. Not a total shutdown; more targeted efforts.
• Strategy is to eliminate large uncontrolled gatherings (indoors and outdoors)
• We all need to be vigilant and take personal responsibility.
• That means wearing our mask, avoid large gatherings, staying home when sick, keep your children home when sick.

Dr. Bruce Anderson, Dir of Health
• We fully expect to see 200 cases today.
• Its projected intensive care units and state hospitals may be overrun by end of month.
• The projections for neighbor islands are better.
• We are approaching a health care crisis.
• The current situation is much more serious that we projected.
• Every person must wear a mask and practice social distancing.

Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell
• At recommendation of Dept of Health, we need to clamp down hard on large gatherings.
• ACTIVE CARE DO NOT GATHER ORDER.
• Eff. Aug 7th - Sept 5th:
o ALL C&C PARKS WILL BE CLOSED
o All pools will be closed; private tennis courts/pools closed
o ALL STATE PARKS ON OAHU will be closed.
o ALL BEACH PARKS ON OAHU will be closed.
o No activities will be allowed in the beach or the park.
o You will be allowed to walk through the park to get into the ocean.
o Restrooms will be open.
o All camp grounds are closed. Botanical gardens closed.
o All team sports in parks are suspended.
o Indoor sports - bowling alleys.
o Fitness centers - can stay open. But no group classes.
o Restaurants - kitchen staff must wear masks.
• HPD will step up enforcement.


Honolulu Police Chief Susan Ballard
• We have setup COVID enforcement hotline.
• Report COVID issues at 723-3900.
• Email address to report incidents hpdcovidenforce@honolulu.gov
• In addition to regular patrol, there will be 160 officers 24/7 doing strategic enforcement.
• We have done education and warnings. We will now issues citations and arrests.
• Chief begged the public to PLEASE follow the rules.
   8764. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 06, 2020 at 09:17 PM (#5968226)
The White House is playing "Live and Let Die" before Trump's arrival at a thinly disguised campaign event in Ohio


Complain when he lies, complain when he tells the truth. No pleasing some people. ;)
   8765. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 06, 2020 at 09:18 PM (#5968227)
Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell
• At recommendation of Dept of Health, we need to clamp down hard on large gatherings.


LA County is looking at turning off electricity in places that have large crowds.
   8766. BrianBrianson Posted: August 07, 2020 at 01:09 AM (#5968240)
The underlined datum is interesting. More kids in circulation over the summer, or something else?


The data I looked at didn't show a noticeable increase in total tests over that period, nor really enough in the number of positive tests to explain it. From those numbers, kids are far less likely to get tested than the rest of the population (by a factor of 2x-5x), so it's possible they're getting tested more, due to back to school anxieties or whatnot, I don't have granular enough data to see that.
   8767. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 07, 2020 at 07:14 AM (#5968243)

The underlined datum is interesting. More kids in circulation over the summer, or something else?


From the data in the report, it doesn't look like there was a big sudden increase beginning July 16 -- it looks like there was a pretty steady increase throughout April-May (kids were 2.0% of cases as of April 16, steadily increasing to 9.0% of cases reported for the week ending May 21). Then remained constant at around 9% for several weeks, before a jump to 12.2% the week of June 18 (kids getting tested before going to camp?). Since then it's ranged from 10.6% to 12.4% each week.

I suspect it's some combo of more children getting infected as things begin to open up more over that time period (a lot of dumb teenagers having parties if the news is to be believed), and more testing available means that kids with mild / asymptomatic cases are able to get tested now, whereas earlier in the pandemic you had to be more sick to get a test.

They seem to define "children" as 0-19 for most states, since that's the age bucket that's available. I'm guessing those age groups are about 25% of the overall population, so children are still less likely to have a positive test than the country overall.
   8768. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 07, 2020 at 07:20 AM (#5968244)
The U.S. State Department issued a new travel warning for New Zealand this week, warning Americans to exercise “increased caution” because the country poses a “health risk” due to the covid-19 pandemic. In reality, New Zealand hasn’t had community spread of the coronavirus in months and has just 23 active cases of the disease, all in New Zealanders returning from overseas who are currently in quarantine. Meanwhile, the U.S. has the worst coronavirus outbreak in the world.
If you’ve followed international news at all, you know this new advisory from the Trump regime makes absolutely no sense. New Zealand has identified just 1,569 cases and 22 deaths since the pandemic began
Putting aside the State Department’s new health warnings, Americans aren’t even allowed to visit New Zealand right now. In fact, very few countries are permitting Americans to enter, with Mexico, Turkey, and Croatia being three of just a handful of places where U.S. passport holders can travel freely. Even Canada has banned Americans from entering their country, a restriction that will be in place until at least August 31.

charlie sheen has hiv. winning.
   8769. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 07, 2020 at 07:20 AM (#5968245)

And the other shoe drops in Hawaii. My office reports as follows:


Stay safe, Srul. Hawaii is hopefully taking these actions early enough that they can nip things in the bud before they get out of control. And hopefully by taking action now, the restrictions won't need to be maintained as long.

It's going to be interesting watching places like Hawaii, and places that are having a "second wave" -- Japan, Australia, Hong Kong, Spain. I mean, all of those places would still be among the safest in the US right now, but there's a certain glee among some in the pro-virus crowd (I don't know how else to describe those people) at these outbreaks*. It would be great to see those locations demonostrate that when the outbreak is small enough, you can contain it with less heavy-handed measures over shorter periods of time.

Hong Kong seems to be doing a pretty good job -- they were reporting 100-150 cases per day a week ago, now that's down to 80-90. Too early to tell with the other places, as the numbers still seem to be slowly increasing.

* One guy I follow still claims that Florida has handled things well, while Japan (which is reporting 1/6 the number of cases as Florida with 6x the population) is proof that "you can't hide from the virus".

I will say, the fact that Japan is having a second wave that began in July makes me think it was a very good thing they postponed the summer Olympics.
   8770. Tony S Posted: August 07, 2020 at 08:52 AM (#5968249)
The U.S. State Department issued a new travel warning for New Zealand this week, warning Americans to exercise “increased caution” because the country poses a “health risk” due to the covid-19 pandemic. In reality, New Zealand hasn’t had community spread of the coronavirus in months and has just 23 active cases of the disease, all in New Zealanders returning from overseas who are currently in quarantine. Meanwhile, the U.S. has the worst coronavirus outbreak in the world.


Is there any country the US doesn't have a travel advisory for? (Just giving the trump sycophants an out if they want to rationalize away the New Zealand warning.)
   8771. puck Posted: August 07, 2020 at 09:53 AM (#5968250)
Hong Kong seems to be doing a pretty good job -- they were reporting 100-150 cases per day a week ago, now that's down to 80-90. Too early to tell with the other places, as the numbers still seem to be slowly increasing.


Given the population density of most of Hong Kong, and compared to how the US is doing, that seems like a great second wave.
   8772. puck Posted: August 07, 2020 at 10:03 AM (#5968252)
So is the idea in Hawaii that this rise in cases is from people relaxing the social distancing, allowing the low level of infections in the state to grow? As opposed to people bringing infections in via flights?
   8773. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 07, 2020 at 10:10 AM (#5968253)
Given the population density of most of Hong Kong, and compared to how the US is doing, that seems like a great second wave.

Yep. Their second wave involves about 1/2 as many daily cases as NYC, now that NYC has largely gotten things under control. Not that they should be celebrating yet. They had a long stretch with basically no cases, I wonder whether they can get back to that or are they going to be stuck at this level.
   8774. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 07, 2020 at 10:43 AM (#5968265)

FL +120 yesterday and +180 today. Those are big declines from one week ago and bring the 7-day total down to 1,085. I would be surprised if we don't see the rolling total back up over the next few days, but here's hoping this is the beginning of a downward trend.
   8775. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 07, 2020 at 10:54 AM (#5968268)
Very likely this week will end up with fewer reported deaths nationally than the last. Hard to know for sure, but my guess is this downward trend will continue for the next few, maybe several weeks. Might be a slow decline though.
   8776. I am going to be Frank Posted: August 07, 2020 at 10:56 AM (#5968269)
My sister-in-law just got hired as a lab technician doing COVID tests for one of the big testing companies. The whole process was to sign up for a 'hiring event' (basically a job fair) and speak to a supervisor not in her department for 30 minutes (in person, wearing a mask). She received an offer in two days, including a signing bonus. That's it. Of course, she has to get a drug and background test, but that's just normal HR procedures. This is in NJ where we have been past the peak for a while - we hope. Of course NJ labs can test samples from other states, but it's an obvious failure that five months in, the scrambling continues.
   8777. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 07, 2020 at 11:27 AM (#5968275)
I would be surprised if we don't see the rolling total back up over the next few days, but here's hoping this is the beginning of a downward trend.

Possibly today, probably not til after the weekend, I take it you're assuming some lag from the hurricane.
Texas logged 236 deaths on Worldometer; 306 on the state site. Either site gives a slight week-over-week drop in cases; looks like stepped-up enforcement and stay-at-home directives in some counties may work.
   8778. RJ in TO Posted: August 07, 2020 at 11:29 AM (#5968276)
Even Canada has banned Americans from entering their country,
This is only kind of true, in that the border is closed to non-essential travel, so you can't just hop up for a vacation, but there are still large numbers of people crossing the border daily. Much like the lockdown wasn't really a lockdown, the border closure isn't really a full closure of the border.
   8779. Srul Itza Posted: August 07, 2020 at 01:48 PM (#5968298)
So is the idea in Hawaii that this rise in cases is from people relaxing the social distancing, allowing the low level of infections in the state to grow? As opposed to people bringing infections in via flights?


Some may have come in from flights, but there are a lot of local clusters, arising from bars, funerals, and other gatherings.

So at this point it does not matter how it got here; it is well entrenched, and more restrictions are necessary to slow the spread.

One sad aspect is that Micronesians and other non-Hawaiian Pacific Islanders make up 4% of our population, but 23% of COVID cases. They live in multi-generational households, and they are a very close community.

   8780. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 07, 2020 at 02:13 PM (#5968308)
Q: Why is there a coin shortage?
There are a few reasons, and they’re all connected to the pandemic.

The U.S. Mint, which produces coins, had been working at a limited capacity because of employee safety measures.
...
There’s also an exchange problem: Some people have been avoiding going to banks, where they might otherwise have converted their coins into cash. Others might not have wanted to linger in grocery stores to use coin kiosks. This roadblock in the flow of coins led to a “significant” reduction of the number of coins that banks sent to the Federal Reserve, which manages the distribution of coins around the country.
...
All of this added up to a real problem when businesses started to open and banks began ordering more coins, which the Fed didn’t have stockpiled in high enough numbers. According to the Fed, there is a projected monthly gap of 2.3 billion to 3.5 billion coins for the rest of the year.
Laundromats have been one of the hardest-hit businesses. Brian Wallace, the president and CEO of the Coin Laundry Association, said a large number of the 30,000 laundromats in the U.S. are vulnerable, given that some 56 percent accept quarters as their only form of payment.
   8781. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 07, 2020 at 02:18 PM (#5968310)
Possibly today, probably not til after the weekend, I take it you're assuming some lag from the hurricane.

Well, FL already reported its number for today, but yeah, those were the deaths that were counted yesterday.

When I say that the running weekly total will increase, I just mean that they'll report a number that was higher than that of from 7 days earlier. Whether it's a weekend or weekday doesn't really affect that, although they're probably less likely to report a big jump on a Sunday or Monday. This past Sun/Mon the numbers were pretty low, however, so it's possible we'll see a big jump from that.

There's always some fluctuation in the daily numbers, even in the weekly numbers; not sure what drives that but the hurricane could very well have affected things the past few days. Or maybe last Wed/Thurs were just abnormally high reporting days. Right now it's mostly about counting the backlog and less about the number of people dying each day. Hard to know what drives that timing.

For context, if you look at FL's tally of deaths by the actual date of death, and compare that to how many they had reported by that point, you can basically see how many unreported deaths they had at any given point of time (that they know about right now). Looking back I can see that they had 2,080 unreported deaths as of July 13 (6,461 people had died by that point, but they had only reported 4,381). Even that understates it because they add additional deaths from before-July 13 to the total every day, even now. The backlog was actually higher than 2,080 then, and it's almost certainly higher now.

The actual number of people dying there now is probably declining, given the declining case numbers and hospitalizations for the past couple of weeks. But we don't know what the actual number is at this point. I would guess that it peaked around 200-225 per day sometime in late July, and the actual number right now is 160-180.
   8782. Greg Pope Posted: August 07, 2020 at 02:44 PM (#5968316)
Laundromats have been one of the hardest-hit businesses. Brian Wallace, the president and CEO of the Coin Laundry Association, said a large number of the 30,000 laundromats in the U.S. are vulnerable, given that some 56 percent accept quarters as their only form of payment.


I've gotta say, there are a whole bunch of things that I never would have thought of, that seem obvious in retrospect. Everybody could tell that a lockdown would decrease the value of the travel and restaurant industry. It was slightly less obvious that companies like Amazon and Netflix would see increases. But still predictable.

But it seems like every day I hear a story about some group of people or industry that's affected and I say, "I wouldn't have thought of that". Laundromats being vulnerable to coin shortages never crossed my mind. If I had thought about them at all, I probably would have assumed a revenue loss due to people not needing the same variety of clothes while in lockdown.
   8783. Ron J Posted: August 07, 2020 at 04:00 PM (#5968329)
#8782. I had two important video conferences today. I thought about putting on work attire but instead I just disabled my video. As did everybody else.
   8784. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 07, 2020 at 04:01 PM (#5968332)
AuntBea, if you're still around I was thinking about your comments recently about trying to determine the undercount of cases.

One thing that occurred to me is that the percentage of people who have COVID in the tested population almost has to be higher than the percentage of people who had COVID in the untested population, at least for states that didn't get hit hard early on.

For example, Florida has tested 3.9 million people and roughly 518k have tested positive (13% positive). I'm pretty sure there's no doublecounting going on here -- if you get tested twice, they only count that as one person tested. If you get tested twice and only one of those comes back positive, you're included in the "positive" category.

Only 21.5 million people live in Florida, which means 17.6 million people haven't been tested yet. Well, if the number of actual cases is 10x the number of reported cases, that means there are 4.7 million people who had or have COVID amongst those who haven't been tested. (Which means something like 15% of the people not tested had it.)

Which would mean the positive percentage among those who *weren't* tested is 27% (4.7/17.6) while the positive percentage amongst those who *were* tested is only 13%. Even acknowledging that people who get tested might be more likely to be taking proper precautions against the virus in their daily lives, I don't think it's possible that a higher percentage of the untested people have had it than the tested people.

If you assume that the percentage of untested people who have had it is equal to the percentage of tested people (13%), that pretty much caps the multiplier at 5.5x. I think I had previously said I thought the multiplier in FL was 4-6x. Based on the above, I'd guess it's closer to the bottom end of that range. Even a 4x multiplier assumes 8.8% of the untested people have had it, which still sounds high to me, but at least sounds mathematically possible.

NOTE: I don't think you can apply this analysis to someplace like New York, where testing capacity was severely constrained at the worst point in the outbreak and where we are now testing a ton of people when very few people have it. In NY, only 6.6% of people tested have been positive, even though the antibody testing indicated something like 12% of the state had it by some point in May.
   8785. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 07, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5968333)
#8782. I had two important video conferences phone calls today. I thought about putting on work attire pants but instead I just disabled my video. As did everybody else.
ftfy
   8786. RJ in TO Posted: August 07, 2020 at 04:05 PM (#5968335)
#8782. I had two important video conferences today. I thought about putting on work attire but instead I just disabled my video. As did everybody else.
The disabling video has been standard at my company since before COVID-19. No one wants to spend a meeting looking at a bunch of other engineers.
   8787. RJ in TO Posted: August 07, 2020 at 04:07 PM (#5968336)
Also, 57i66135's correction is also fairly accurate.
   8788. Laser Man Posted: August 07, 2020 at 04:20 PM (#5968341)
[8784] That's an excellent point, and the same thing applies at the national level. The U.S. has about 5M positive cases in ~60M tests, for around 8% positivity. If the entire population showed an 8% positivity rate, that would be 26.5M cases, meaning that we are missing 21.5M cases. That leads to a case multiplier of about 4-5x, which seems like it has to be an upper limit.
   8789. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: August 07, 2020 at 04:50 PM (#5968347)
For example, Florida has tested 3.9 million people and roughly 518k have tested positive (13% positive). I'm pretty sure there's no doublecounting going on here -- if you get tested twice, they only count that as one person tested. If you get tested twice and only one of those comes back positive, you're included in the "positive" category.


Do we know this? Are the individual tests complete with identifier (SSN?) reported to the state and the state compares the newly reported test result against its existing historical database to check for multiple tests per person? Some people are tested in different sites, I would assume. Based on the shitshow that the US has been with the COVID-19 response, I would not be terribly sure of this.
   8790. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 07, 2020 at 05:01 PM (#5968351)
#8788 I think you'd want to look at it on a state-by-state basis. You pretty much have to exclude places like NY, NJ, CT, MA. from the analysis -- they probably had a multiplier of ~10x early on. I'd even be willing to believe the whole country had a 10x multiplier in March-April, since the top 5 states were probably in that ballpark and they had more than half the deaths (and therefore likely more than half the cases) in that time period.

But if you start looking at it state-by-state, yeah, I bet you'd find the maximum multiplier can't be more than like 6x nationwide, and is probably more like 4-5x.
   8791. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 07, 2020 at 05:16 PM (#5968353)


Do we know this? Are the individual tests complete with identifier (SSN?) reported to the state and the state compares the newly reported test result against its existing historical database to check for multiple tests per person? Some people are tested in different sites, I would assume. Based on the shitshow that the US has been with the COVID-19 response, I would not be terribly sure of this.


I don't know how they're cross-checking it, but for Florida it's pretty clear that they are not doublecounting the positive tests. Each day, they give the number of positive tests and the number of new cases (the former being a larger number since it includes people who previously tested positive). Their total cases number goes up each day by the number of new cases, not the number of positive tests.

It's less clear when it comes to negative tests, but the numbers only make sense if they're not doublecounting the negative tests in their Total Persons Tested number.

Not sure if every state is doing it this way, but I assume FL is following some sort of CDC guidance on this. NY uses the same terminology as FL, for example ("Total Persons Tested", "Total Tested Positive").

I imagine the number of people testing positive in more than one state is very small and not worth worrying about.
   8792. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 07, 2020 at 06:27 PM (#5968368)

OK, I ran the analysis excluding the 10 states (plus DC) that got hit disproportionately hardest early on*. In those 40 states, the maximum multiplier would be 6.1x. If you assume the top 10 + DC had a multiplier of 10x, that basically caps the multiplier at 6.9x nationwide. (To believe in a 10x multiplier in those 40 states, you'd have to believe that 16% of the untested people in those states have had COVID, even though only 8.6% of the tested people had it.)

I like to do this kind of "what do you have to believe" analysis with extreme theories about the virus. Some people like to claim the IFR is <0.3%, but also that herd immunity comes at 20%, not realizing that this would mean that a number of states are already at herd immunity and a bunch of others will get there very soon.

* the states that had the greatest proportion of their deaths reported by May 15. I know, kind of arbitrary, but this excluded CO, CT, DC, DE, HI, MA, MI, NJ, NY, VT and WA. Change the analysis to assume that the top 15 states + DC had a multipler of 10x, and it doesn't really move the needle that much. The nationwide "cap" goes up from 6.9x to 7.2x.
   8793. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 07, 2020 at 06:40 PM (#5968370)
Do we know this? Are the individual tests complete with identifier (SSN?) reported to the state and the state compares the newly reported test result against its existing historical database to check for multiple tests per person? Some people are tested in different sites, I would assume. Based on the shitshow that the US has been with the COVID-19 response, I would not be terribly sure of this.


But if that's the case, why wouldn't they likewise be multiple-counting negative tests? Over the course of 4+ months, it seems to me more likely that people will have accrued multiple negatives than multiple positives. (Ridiculously SSS, I personally know no one who has tested positive, but have one colleague who had 2 or 3 negatives before getting another diagnosis.)
   8794. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: August 07, 2020 at 06:45 PM (#5968371)
8791, thanks Dave. That makes sense and I agree that anybody testing at two sites, even in state, would just be rounding errors.
   8795. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 07, 2020 at 09:03 PM (#5968380)
I'm not so sure how much you can infer from these numbers, since states probably count these differently from each other, differently over time, and some states also mix in antibody tests (I think). Here's an article on Florida from a month ago--not sure if it is still accurate

However, maybe there is some hope for Florida (and maybe other states if they count the same way). Despite what the below says, the ACTUAL worldometer and COVID Tracking Project data from Tuesday, July 14 (which appears to be the day they are referring to below) shows 45,669 new tests and 9194 new cases, which implies no double counting of positives or negatives, and (if we can believe the article), anyone who has already tested positive for the virus doesn't count as a positive or negative if they get tested again.

So, if we test 15,000 people a day in Miami-Dade for a month, with 20% positive, that's 1/6 of the population tested and 90,000 positive out of 450,000. If the other 5/6 have to be at most 15% positive, that leaves at most 337,500, or less than 5x multiplier. However, since this is happening over a month, not all of them would have necessarily have needed to test positive at the same time, so maybe the multiplier could be a little higher. Also, of course, Miami-Dade has been testing for more than a month.

(Numbers are for example purposes only, but should be in the right ballpark, if we are analyzing this correctly. Miami-Dade's totals are: 19.2% positive out of 622,000, which is a bit under 1/4 of the total population. The vast majority of tests, at a higher positive rate, have come over the last 5 weeks or so.)

A second article, this one more recent from Miami-Dade, just seems to make it more murky.

Even if this is correct, I think this analysis depends on a short enough time period where you can more or less assume if a person is negative (whether tested or not) during part of the period they will still be negative during the rest of the period.

However you look at it, a 10x (or more) multiplier in Miami-Dade seems impossible. That would be just under 50% positive, the vast majority newly positive over the last 5-6 weeks, with the testing only showing 20% or so positive each day.




“We only count the positive test once,” Alina Alonso, the head of the Palm Beach County Department of Health, told Palm Beach County commissioners on July 7.

“We do count the negative tests more than once because there are reasons for people testing negative and getting multiple test results. But the positives by name are only captured once,” she said.

...
On Tuesday, he estimates that at least 21,000 of the day’s approximately 53,700 negative tests were likely retests, since 45,753 people were tested for the first time that day, but about 67,000 tests were reported.

   8796. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 07, 2020 at 09:32 PM (#5968384)
Link to recent Florida data and COVID tracking project. Looks like COVID Tracking is not double counting anyone, while Florida is double counting negative tests.

According to COVID Tracking, over 18% of Floridians have now been tested, and over 17% of Americans.
   8797. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 07, 2020 at 09:55 PM (#5968389)
A novel coronavirus outbreak at a Missouri City (TX) nursing home, outside of Houston, has killed 17 residents, according to data from state officials.
City officials issued a press release this week raising alarm over 19 deaths that they said occurred at the Paradigm at First Colony Nursing Home but nursing home officials told The Texas Tribune that the number is incorrect and declined to provide the correct number.
The city also reported that the facility has 24 infected staff members and the nursing home reported 11 currently infected residents who are in stable condition.


Timed well to the announcement of select, limited visiting privileges in the state. Policy: Visitors are now allowed to see their loved ones indoors through plexiglass barriers in assisted-living facilities where no residents currently have COVID-19 and there have been no confirmed cases among staff for two weeks. Physical contact between visitors and residents is not allowed, state officials said. In nursing homes, staff must be tested weekly and only outdoor visits are permitted.

And TX crossed 8,000 deaths today on the DHS website (for the day: 293 deaths announced by DHS, 228 on Worldometer) but positives are down week-on-week.
   8798. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 07, 2020 at 10:23 PM (#5968395)
Last weekend, Falwell Jr. posted a photograph to his Instagram account in which he posed with his arm around a pregnant woman with a bare midriff at a private party on a yacht. The college president’s shirt is pulled up and his pants are unbuttoned, revealing a triangle of underwear. He’s holding a glass of what appears to be an alcoholic beverage, though he referred to it in the caption as “black water.”
In a bizarre, brief interview with a Virginia radio station on Wednesday, he said he had “apologized to everybody” and that he had promised his children, “I’m gonna try to be a good boy from here on out.”

A poster on Reddit compiled Falwell Jr.’s potential violations in the yacht photograph and an accompanying video, and calculated that a student captured in the same scene could have accrued more than $9,000 in school fines and 900 hours of required service, and possible expulsion.

Falwell Jr. began 2020 by calling for parts of Virginia to secede from the state and join West Virginia. As the coronavirus crisis encroached, Falwell Jr. initially dismissed it as “hype,” and called a Liberty parent who questioned him on Twitter a “dummy.”
“This is an incredible shock,” Jordan said. “Many of us who have been close to Liberty for years never thought this board of trustees would take this action, or any type of discipline, against Mr. Falwell.”
   8799. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 07, 2020 at 11:44 PM (#5968401)
The state's COVID-19 positive test rate on Thursday reached the second-highest rate since the pandemic began, according to a Houston Chronicle analysis of state data. For the second day in a row, the rate jumped and is now at 17.05 percent.
Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner said earlier this week that the city's positive test rate is still hovering at around 15 percent. Local health authorities and public officials have repeatedly said that they want Houston's positive test rate to decrease to about 5 percent before reopening schools or scaling back any stay-home measures.


So HISD wouldn't be allowed to open under Iowa rules, either. For comparison, Broome Co NY is at 4.1 percent, Sullivan at 3.6 percent, Niagara at 3.1 percent. The rest of the state ranges between 0 and 1.6 percent.
   8800. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 08, 2020 at 01:02 AM (#5968407)
Good twitter thread on how (theoretically) substantial immunity (say, 10%+) in combination with social distancing can drive the R below 1 in a population. It's probably the best explanation why places like Arizona and Florida have started to turn down. There is abase level of immunity especially in the population most likely to spread it, allowing measures that, alone, would not be sufficient, to turn the tide.

Most likely we'll see a second wave in all these states. Not because those who are immune will lose their immunity, but because people will pull back to a lower level of social distancing as the virus subsides, and we'll start the cycle all over again. The good news is the second and third waves in any population are likely to be less intense as it will take less social distancing effort to send R back below 1.
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