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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 9769 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   8801. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 08, 2020 at 06:40 AM (#5968417)
flip
   8802. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 08, 2020 at 07:02 AM (#5968418)
Auntbea, you wrote:

Link to recent Florida data and COVID tracking project. Looks like COVID Tracking is not double counting anyone, while Florida is double counting negative tests.

COVID Tracking Project is getting its data from that same Florida report, which is the same place I am getting my data.

On page 2, when they show "Number of People Tested Per Day" (57,272 on August 4, for example), that is potentially doublecounting -- they'll only count a person once on any given day, but if that same person was tested the day before as well, they'll be counted on both days.

However, on page 1, where FL shows 3,312,143 "Total Persons Tested" Negative, they are not doublecounting people from multiple days. You can see this by looking at the prior day's report, when they had 3,287,128 "Total Persons Tested" Negative. The increase on August 4 was not the 57,272 listed on page 2, it was a much smaller number -- 25,015. This is why I am confident they are not doublecounting negatives in the overall total. This is the negative test number that COVID Tracking Project is pulling each day.

It is possible that someone could test negative today who had COVID two months ago without being tested back then. For this reason, the percentage of the tested population who had COVID is probably a bit higher than the positive test percentage. This is almost certainly the case in New York, for example, where the positive test percentage is only 6.7% but antibody testing implies that about 14% of the state had it early on. That's why I excluded states like NY from this analysis. But for states like FL or TX where the vast majority of their cases are taking place post-May, I don't think that's a major factor.
   8803. Greg K Posted: August 08, 2020 at 07:43 AM (#5968420)
But it seems like every day I hear a story about some group of people or industry that's affected and I say, "I wouldn't have thought of that". Laundromats being vulnerable to coin shortages never crossed my mind. If I had thought about them at all, I probably would have assumed a revenue loss due to people not needing the same variety of clothes while in lockdown.

I just moved to a new place that has coin-operated laundry. I haven't handled paper bills or coins in months. So I got 100 loonies from the bank. Had never done that before.
   8804. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 08, 2020 at 07:56 AM (#5968422)


Good twitter thread on how (theoretically) substantial immunity (say, 10%+) in combination with social distancing can drive the R below 1 in a population. It's probably the best explanation why places like Arizona and Florida have started to turn down. There is abase level of immunity especially in the population most likely to spread it, allowing measures that, alone, would not be sufficient, to turn the tide.


Yes, I have looked at this. I still think that additional restrictions and better behavior as people see the headline numbers are a better explanation for why things have begun to decline. For example, Arizona shut down bars, clubs, and gyms on July 30 and the number of new caaes began to turn shortly afterwars. Miami-Dade imposed a mask requirement and curfew in July, as well as banning in-restaurant dining. Broward imposed similar limitations around the same time. Anecdotally, my old college roommate in Texas, who had been going to the gym regularly, stopped going when the local case numbers started to rise. But yes, I do think that at some point, the immunity rate within the community starts to have a significant impact as well. We may be at that point in some places now, I just don't think it's the primary driver.

This is also why reopening schools in these high-COVID communities is so risky. Even if students are pretty unlikely to spread it, it's not hard to see the act of reopening schools push the R0 from 0.9 to 1.0, or 1.0 to 1.1. If that happens in NY, you can close the schools again when you see the case numbers begin to rise at relatively low cost. But when the numbers are as high as they are in FL, every day counts.
   8805. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 08, 2020 at 08:53 AM (#5968424)
Yes, I have looked at this. I still think that additional restrictions and better behavior as people see the headline numbers are a better explanation for why things have begun to decline. For example, Arizona shut down bars, clubs, and gyms on July 30 and the number of new caaes began to turn shortly afterwars. Miami-Dade imposed a mask requirement and curfew in July, as well as banning in-restaurant dining. Broward imposed similar limitations around the same time. Anecdotally, my old college roommate in Texas, who had been going to the gym regularly, stopped going when the local case numbers started to rise. But yes, I do think that at some point, the immunity rate within the community starts to have a significant impact as well. We may be at that point in some places now, I just don't think it's the primary driver.
I think the reason to acknowledge immunity has some effect is that there is a whole (large) community of people seemingly willfully not understanding how one place that is currently taking mitigation actions at level X (say, Arizona) and has R below 1 for now, while another place taking mitigation action level Y which is greater than X (say, Australia) has R above 1 for now. They use this as evidence that mitigation efforts are effectively worthless when they are anything but.

You would hope that acknowledging background immunity has some effect, even though it is not the primary driver, would get these people to be more cooperative with mitigation efforts. I guess in reality it's probably the opposite--they'll just want to increase immunity as much as possible now so they can go back to their old lives, and they don't really care how many bodies they have to crawl over to get there.
   8806. Tony S Posted: August 08, 2020 at 08:57 AM (#5968425)
The suspended whistleblowing student in Georgia has been reinstated.

This isn't in the article, but I wouldn't be surprised if it occurred to some students that if they exposed their schools and got a suspension out of it, they (and their relatives) would be much safer from COVID.
   8807. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 08, 2020 at 08:59 AM (#5968426)
It is possible that someone could test negative today who had COVID two months ago without being tested back then. For this reason, the percentage of the tested population who had COVID is probably a bit higher than the positive test percentage. This is almost certainly the case in New York, for example, where the positive test percentage is only 6.7% but antibody testing implies that about 14% of the state had it early on. That's why I excluded states like NY from this analysis. But for states like FL or TX where the vast majority of their cases are taking place post-May, I don't think that's a major factor.
Right this is what I was trying to get at in my prior posts. Most of the positives in Miami-Dade came over a time period of just a few weeks, so it's not likely a big factor.

In light of this, it's very hard to understand how people can be throwing out high multipliers like 10x or more for Florida and Arizona. It could easily be that high in Podunk, Florida, but it's nowhere near that high in Miami-Dade, where a big fraction of the positive tests are coming from.
   8808. Tony S Posted: August 08, 2020 at 09:06 AM (#5968427)
Sturgis has begun. And right after that, schools will physically reopen in large swaths of the country.

We could be back to square one by early September.
   8809. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 08, 2020 at 09:09 AM (#5968428)
Sturgis has begun. And right after that, schools will physically reopen in large swaths of the country.

We could be back to square one by early September.
not a bad time or place for greenland to declare war with a massive first strike, and then immediately surrender to canadia.
   8810. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: August 08, 2020 at 09:17 AM (#5968431)
Declare war and immediately surrender? Didn't the Duchy of Grand Fenwick try that?
   8811. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 08, 2020 at 09:43 AM (#5968434)
Declare war and immediately surrender? Didn't the Duchy of Grand Fenwick try that?
is that some french province?
   8812. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 08, 2020 at 10:06 AM (#5968436)
there’s currently dozens of unmasked bedminster patrons the president has invited to the bedminster ballroom where he’s scheduled to hold his press conference - a number drinking wine. btw here’s the NJ regulations for golf courses
https://t.co/Ybq5deiojA
pic.twitter.com/XFXUr3GVQK

— Justin Sink (@justinsink) August 7, 2020
Awaiting @POTUS presser in Bedminster. Many members of his club are here not social distancing and not wearing masks.

A club official just told the crowd to “spread out a little bit” because “the tweets are going out” about their noncompliance with NJ regulations
pic.twitter.com/bzyLVwqS0u

— Toluse Olorunnipa (@ToluseO) August 7, 2020
Trump's paying Bedminster customers boo when a reporter points out that many of them aren't wearing masks, violating New Jersey law. Trump defends them by describing them as "peaceful protesters" of the media, then ends the news conference to a round of applause.
pic.twitter.com/5DVow55B1G

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 8, 2020
   8813. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 08, 2020 at 10:51 AM (#5968442)

In light of this, it's very hard to understand how people can be throwing out high multipliers like 10x or more for Florida and Arizona. It could easily be that high in Podunk, Florida, but it's nowhere near that high in Miami-Dade, where a big fraction of the positive tests are coming from.


People throw out the very high multipliers because they have an agenda, or they just haven't given it enough thought. Or both.
   8814. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 08, 2020 at 12:25 PM (#5968452)
The latest directive from Gov. Greg Abbott limits occupancy to no more than 50% of a stadium’s capacity. Many athletics officials seized on that number, including UT-Austin Athletics Director Chris Del Conte as recently as last week. With a capacity of 100,000, the University of Texas at Austin's Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium could potentially seat up to 50,000 fans.
But UT’s Board of Regents has called for further rolling back the limit to only 25% of stadium capacity. Del Conte has said all season ticket holders will be guaranteed a seat even with limited capacity, presumably reducing student seating.
Need to keep tabs on the latest coronavirus news in Texas? Our evening roundup has you covered.
...
Texas A&M University’s Kyle Field has the capacity for nearly 110,000 fans. In a media briefing last week, Athletics Director Ross Bjork said he expects up to 55,000 fans could attend any given game this season with the new capacity rules.
With limited seating, Bjork also said all season ticket holders would be prioritized while student seating would be reduced.
...
Social distancing and mandatory face coverings will be requirements at both UT-Austin and A&M games, athletics officials have said.

Social distancing and 50 percent capacity at A&M? Another Aggie joke?
TTU and UH also plan on 25 percent capacity; 15,000 in Lubbock, 10,000 in the Bayou City.

Dr. Mark Escott, Austin’s interim public health authority, has expressed concern with even the scaled-back plan for fans that UT-Austin athletics officials have set.
“If the prevalence of disease on game day is similar to today, with 25,000 fans we can expect more than 100 of those fans to be COVID-19 positive ... and then it multiplies,” Escott wrote in a tweet after UT-Austin officials said they were considering a 25% capacity. “Let's stick to watching football on TV this Fall!”
But in a media briefing earlier this week, UT-Austin interim President Jay Hartzell said that local health officials will not have much say in how many fans will be able to attend games.



   8815. puck Posted: August 08, 2020 at 12:49 PM (#5968454)
UT-Austin interim President Jay Hartzell said that local health officials will not have much say in how many fans will be able to attend games.


That's nice. I guess we have to hope being outside helps a lot. With tailgating (I assume that will still be allowed) they can stagger the entrances to the stadium some, but the stadium exits will be a #### show.


I actually saw a concert last night. It seemed pretty safe; the local dinner theater had a concert in their parking lot. They marked out squares in the parking lot for each group. There ended up being 6-10' between parties. The first row was a pretty good distance from the singers. Very sub optimal for the energy of the performance, but the theater said it had to jump through a lot of hoops to get permission, so they were optmizing safety.
   8816. puck Posted: August 08, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5968455)
So...covid19 can do neurological damage, too? This thing is sounding worse and worse.

And many “long-haulers,” or COVID-19 patients who have continued showing symptoms for months after the initial infection passed, report neurological problems such as confusion and difficulty concentrating (or brain fog), as well as headaches, extreme fatigue, mood changes, insomnia and loss of taste and/or smell.

...Now a study of 60 COVID-19 patients published in Lancet this week finds that 55% of them were still displaying such neurological symptoms during follow-up visits three months later. And when doctors compared brain scans of these 60 COVID patients with those of a control group who had not been infected, they found that the brains of the COVID patients showed structural changes that correlated with memory loss and smell loss.


   8817. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 08, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5968456)
The linked interview with Dr. Michael Osterholm, epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, from 8816 is a suitably grim companion to 8816.

And of course tailgating is still allowed. Jesus, man, football! ;) The concert sounds carefully planned, but of course that's a different crowd from football/tailgating.
   8818. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 08, 2020 at 01:08 PM (#5968457)
U of Iowa announced yesterday that IF we host games, they are limited to 10k to 15k per game (14 to 21% capacity).

They are dumping the 40k season tickets sold, and selling all tickets as single game tickets. Social distancing and other BS included.

I've missed 4 home games in the last 19 seasons, and I'm not going to any this year.

   8819. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 08, 2020 at 01:33 PM (#5968462)
With the MAC’s 12 schools facing a significant financial burden by trying to maintain costly coronavirus protocols, and the uncertainty that campuses can be opened safely, the conference’s university presidents made the decision to cancel all fall sports — including soccer and volleyball — and explore making them up in the spring season.
   8820. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 08, 2020 at 01:40 PM (#5968464)
That's nice. I guess we have to hope being outside helps a lot.

Probably not when there's people all around you anyway sitting in the same place for 3+ hours while screaming and pounding some suds.


With tailgating (I assume that will still be allowed) they can stagger the entrances to the stadium some

Oh yeah, that too. Where the superfans will start congregating as early as maybe Friday night but definitely Saturday morning.

In short, we're screwed.
Concerns abound about whether young people, who have been a catalyst for the surge in coronavirus cases this summer, will abide by social distancing guidelines as they return to campus in the fall. And when it comes to college football Saturdays, not much about the normal game day tailgating scene is social distancing-friendly.

Are fraternity brothers and sorority sisters going to put parties on hold in the name of containing the spread?

"Absolutely not," predicts Zulema Avila, a rising junior at Louisiana State University who is worried about the student body returning to campus in the fall.

"Even if they don't allow spectators inside the (stadium), there's still going to be tailgates, there's still going to be apartment parties and Greek life parties," Avila, a member of the Delta Zeta sorority, told USA TODAY

And what does LSU have to say?
“We need football,” LSU head coach Ed Orgeron said at a roundtable this month, calling the sport the “lifeblood of our country. I don't think we can take this away from these players, take this away from our state and our country … It gets everything going, it gets the economy going, the economy of Baton Rouge, the economy of the state of Louisiana."

In case you had any lingering doubts about whether public health policy decisions would be made by public health policy experts or college football coaches.
   8821. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 08, 2020 at 02:20 PM (#5968469)
In case you had any lingering doubts about whether public health policy decisions would be made by public health policy experts or college football coaches.
i trust ed orgeron a hell of a lot more than i'd trust daboo sweeney
   8822. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 08, 2020 at 02:45 PM (#5968473)

Probably not when there's people all around you anyway sitting in the same place for 3+ hours while screaming and pounding some suds.

Well, it's still better for them to do that outdoors than indoors.

“We need football,” LSU head coach Ed Orgeron said at a roundtable this month, calling the sport the “lifeblood of our country.

I find comments like this kind of astonishing. People are losing their actual lives but don't worry about that because football is the "lifeblood of our country"?
   8823. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 08, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5968478)
I find comments like this kind of astonishing. People are losing their actual lives but don't worry about that because football is the "lifeblood of our country"?
keep in mind: this is ed orgeron.
   8824. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 08, 2020 at 03:48 PM (#5968497)
C'mon Dave, Football is so necessary to the well being of city, state, and nation that UH subsidizes the Coogs to the tune of $30M a year -- in a good year. Tilman Fertitta sees to that. If the school is smart, they'll tell the students to watch on TV and cater to the season-ticket holders who pay for parking and buy more food, thus lose maybe only 2/3 of stadium revenue.

If they go to a bowl game, they're screwed unless it's local or close enough to rent 10 buses, go up in the morning and come home at night.
   8825. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 08, 2020 at 03:50 PM (#5968498)
i trust ed orgeron a hell of a lot more than i'd trust daboo sweeney

They would seem to be cut from the same cloth.
Swinney said he created a T.I.G.E.R.S. acronym for players and coaches that stands for "This Is Gonna End Real Soon." He also said he's planning only for the most optimistic version of events. ... "I'll leave it to the smart people to figure out the doomsday scenarios. We've got one scenario, and that's to run down that hill and kick it off in the valley."

Swinney pointed to American ingenuity as the basis for his outlook. "This is America, man. We've stormed the beaches of Normandy. We've sent a rover out on Mars and walked on the moon," Swinney said. "This is the greatest country. We've created an iPhone where I can sit here and talk to people in all these different places. We've got the smartest people in the world. We're going to rise up and kick this thing in the teeth and get back to our lives."

America! #### yeah!

   8826. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 08, 2020 at 03:57 PM (#5968500)
He's not alone. University administrators equally screwed the pooch. Many schools announced in May they were coming back ftf and they've been walking back all summer. Now the Times runs this headline: Weeks Before Classes Start, Colleges Make Reopening Plans

Both schools' and teams' reckless decisions are dollar driven.
   8827. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 08, 2020 at 04:22 PM (#5968505)
They would seem to be cut from the same cloth.
but ed orgeron's love for football is so pure and true, whereas daboat squinty's is corrupted by the jesus and the chicken fillets.
   8828. strong silence Posted: August 08, 2020 at 04:31 PM (#5968507)
What is the ratio of asymptomatic people to positive cases?
   8829. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 08, 2020 at 04:45 PM (#5968511)
Are you asking what percentage of those with a positive test never show symptoms? Or are you asking what percent of people who have the virus never show symptoms, or something else?

For the latter, it's probably 20-50%. No one is really sure. No idea about the former.

There's also the number of infectious people that haven't yet shown any symptoms, which supposedly could be as high as 80% or higher of all people who get infected.
   8830. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 08, 2020 at 05:02 PM (#5968513)
Also: Based on CDC studies, about 60% of cases are transmitted by those without symptoms, notes UC Davis.
   8831. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 08, 2020 at 05:26 PM (#5968521)
Looking at the clip of Stanton's HR today, the NYY haven't; gotten the hang of mask up in the dugout or stay distant, the savages.
   8832. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 08, 2020 at 05:33 PM (#5968522)
In the last week or so, in Arizona the serology tests have been coming back 15% positive. Two big points: antibodies don't show up immediately, and of course selective sampling (as far as I know the serology tests are just from people who chose to get them on their own, not as part of a designed survey). We'd have to assume that, as of 3-4 weeks ago, the total number of infected in Arizona was well below 15%. That doesn't put much of a limit on it, but it does mean that a 10x multiplier for reported cases is probably impossible.
   8833. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 08, 2020 at 07:46 PM (#5968541)


Also: Based on CDC studies, about 60% of cases are transmitted by those without symptoms, notes UC Davis.


But that's presumably people without symptoms *yet*. Not necessarily cases that remain asymptomatic throughout the course of the infection.

I also suspect symptomatic vs. asymptomatic is more of a gradient than a binary. Are all these cases really asymptomatic, or are the symptoms just very mild?
   8834. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 08, 2020 at 07:50 PM (#5968542)
As the death toll from the coronavirus in the United States passes the 160,000-mark, a new poll makes it clear that even if there were a safe and effective vaccine many Americans would refuse to get it. If a vaccine approved by the Food and Drug Administration were offered for free, 35 percent of Americans say they would not get vaccinated, according to a Gallup poll. And those who would refuse the vaccine are more likely to be Republican. While 81 percent of Democrats said they’d get vaccinated if a free, FDA-approved vaccine were available, only 47 percent of Republicans said the same. Independents are in the middle of the two, with 59 percent saying they would accept the vaccine.
...
In late May, a different poll found that only around half of Americans would definitely get vaccinated.

link
The FDA has said it could approve a vaccine as long as it is at least 50 percent effective.

as long as 50% of people in a given trial live past 6 weeks, there will be a vaccine approved before election day.
   8835. Tony S Posted: August 08, 2020 at 08:25 PM (#5968550)
Is the FDA still relatively independent, or has it become as politicized as, say, the DOJ? Because I might be in that 35% if that's the case.

Sturgis isn't exactly a hotbed of mask compliance. Shocking.
   8836. Tony S Posted: August 08, 2020 at 09:05 PM (#5968556)
Latest on New Zealand.

I can see why the US State Department issued a travel advisory there. They'd hate for us to find out that there are more effective ways of dealing with the virus.

(Not that NZ would let Americans in, anyway.)
   8837. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 08, 2020 at 09:39 PM (#5968559)
this commercial is why donald trump is president.

/politics
   8838. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 08, 2020 at 10:09 PM (#5968562)
8333 -- yes, and quite likely; fro all I know, one of my mild allergy bouts was COVID.

8335 -- I have no idea if Trump got it away from the pharmaceutical industry.
   8839. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 08, 2020 at 10:18 PM (#5968564)
After peaking at 17.4% on 7/16, Texas's 7-day positive test rate started slowly declining to 12.1% on 7/31. From that point, the direction turned almost straight up and checks in today at a state record 19.4%.

Are you ready for some football?
   8840. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 09, 2020 at 12:25 AM (#5968582)
Greater Houston has had peaks of 22 percent positive (late June) 25 percent positive (mid July) and 23 percent (early August)
   8841. Tony S Posted: August 09, 2020 at 08:57 AM (#5968588)
Nine COVID cases in North Paulding High.

Six students, three staff members.

And this is just one school that happened to get caught, then tried to shoot the messenger.

   8842. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 09, 2020 at 09:00 AM (#5968589)
There's every reason to think the undercounting of coronoavirus deaths in India is massive.

First, even in a normal year, the cause of many, even most, deaths is not recorded..

Second, we don't have official total mortality numbers for recent years, and presumably won't get it for this year either.

Third, undercounting of actual and suspected cases is already known to be common and systematic, so should already be much higher than it is in Europe and the US.

Put it all together and it seems highly unlikely that India is counting more than 1/3 of their COVID deaths, and the undercount could be far higher.

In Mexico, which appears to be significantly better than India at identifying and counting deaths in a normal year, one recent estimate had them as counting only less than 1/3 of their deaths.

An analysis across 20 of Mexico’s 32 states found that 71,315 extra deaths occurred from March 15 to June 27, 55% higher than expected based on previous years data, according to a study presented over the weekend by health authorities. Some 22,400 of those were tallied as Covid-19 deaths.




   8843. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 09, 2020 at 12:02 PM (#5968600)
After peaking at 17.4% on 7/16, Texas's 7-day positive test rate started slowly declining to 12.1% on 7/31. From that point, the direction turned almost straight up and checks in today at a state record 19.4%.

Is Texas including antigen test results in its case counts now? If you download their excel file, they show a separate column for antigen tests as of 2 days ago. However those test numbers are not included in the total tests displayed on their dashboard or in the COVID Tracking Project data. I suspect they may be including antigen cases in the case count*, but not including the tests in the numbers that everyone is using.

Basically, if you just looked at the daily change in the dashboard numbers, you'd think they had a 57% positive rate yesterday. But if you include the antigen tests, that comes down to 30%. Still very high, but not obviously incorrect like the 57% number.

7-day average would be 18.3% if you include the antigen tests, instead of 19.3%. There's still an upward trend, but I suspect there's something screwy going on with the numbers. Basically, the increase in the positive testing rate is almost entirely due to the denominator, i.e. the number of tests. The average daily case counts have stayed about the same while the number of tests has plummeted, which is a red flag to me about the data more than the results.

* Even though they say they aren't including "probable" cases, and my impression is that antigen tests aren't as accurate as PCR tests so it may be more correct to describe those positives as "probable" cases.
   8844. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 09, 2020 at 12:58 PM (#5968606)

By the way, looking at the Texas Excel file download I see they are now including deaths by date of death in there. This is helpful because you can look back and see how big the "known" backlog was at any given point in time. I.e., based on the deaths that we know about today, we can see that as of July 23, *at least* 7,144 people had died of COVID, but the state was only reporting 4,521. That's 2,623 unreported deaths at that point in time. It also means that Texas had reported *at most* 63% of its actual deaths at that point. The backlog may have grown in absolute size since then.

Eventually, once the pandemic is over, you'd expect reported deaths to catch up to actual deaths (at least the "known" COVID deaths -- there are obviously also "unknown" COVID deaths that will never be reported as such). But as long as cases are growing and for some period of time after they begin to decline, that backlog will continue to grow (at least in absolute terms).

For what it's worth, Texas' backlog looks about as bad as Florida's on an absolute and percentage basis.
   8845. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 09, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5968607)
Unless it's changed within the last 7 days, Texas is not counting antigen tests. Texas, unlike 27 other states, excludes the results of increasingly popular, rapid COVID-19 tests from the numbers it reports publicly. That said,
conflicting guidance from the Texas Department of State Health Services created confusion among local health departments about what test results to report. A reliance on faxed test results has created a paper backlog that makes it impossible for the state to do its own tally.

If your politics is based on hatred and distrust of bureaucracy, you'll suck at governing. Though the State AG took time out from delaying his own, years-old criminal trial to protect a statue of a slaveholder at TAMU and overrule local protections against evictions.
---

I see they are now including deaths by date of death in there

Yes, I believe that came about with the shift to death certificates, which happened at the same time that over a thousand (iirc) new deaths were added in the space of a few days.
   8846. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 09, 2020 at 03:27 PM (#5968638)
The next area of tremendous concern is the Midwest and Upper Midwest. It is clear now that from Indiana, through Ohio and into Kentucky and Missouri, as well as northward into Illinois and Michigan, there is substantial increased risk throughout the region. And an interesting pattern is emerging that we see in other worsening locations: even as some areas of these states appear to stabilize, risk is concentrating in the large cities and their collar counties. This includes Louisville, Ky., and St. Louis and Kansas City, Mo., which we’ve noted before, and now Milwaukee, Chicago, Indianapolis and Detroit. It makes you wonder whether the return of newly infected individuals from summer vacations is concentrating risk in their urban neighborhoods. That is a pattern to watch closely as we approach Labor Day, as we would not be surprised to see vacation areas ebb while city epidemics continue to grow.

Children's Hospital of Phi'delphia modeling
   8847. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 09, 2020 at 04:06 PM (#5968643)
Even in a country that stands apart from the world for its horrific failures, there have been as many leadership bungles as there are states: Some failed to heed early warnings. Others refused to learn the lessons of outbreaks that came before theirs. Still others played politics instead of following science. And then there’s Georgia.
   8848. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: August 09, 2020 at 05:12 PM (#5968656)
Even in a country that stands apart from the world for its horrific failures

I'm sure the author of this piece has left the nasty ol' USA behind and is living elsewhere...right? Right...?
   8849. SoSH U at work Posted: August 09, 2020 at 05:21 PM (#5968660)
I'm sure the author of this piece has left the nasty ol' USA behind and is living elsewhere...right? Right...?'


If you don't like our coronavirus response, leave you dirty commie.
   8850. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 09, 2020 at 06:07 PM (#5968663)
trigger warning: republican death cult.

Aziz aNANsi @Freeyourmindkid
Per the Georgia Department of Health, schools are required to classify anyone who has been within 6 feet of a covid victim for 15 mins or more as a close contact. Theresa Lyons, who sits on the Paulding County BOE, suggested students change seats every 14 mins to get around this.
https://twitter.com/Freeyourmindkid/status/1292220720777494531

@MooreForGeorgia received a tip that a Paulding County school board member tested positive for Covid, didn't tell anybody about it, and went out to lunch a few days later.

North Paulding High School has cancelled face to face classes until Wednesday due to the high number of Covid cases within the school.



   8851. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 09, 2020 at 06:28 PM (#5968665)


I'm sure the author of this piece has left the nasty ol' USA behind and is living elsewhere...right? Right...?


Most countries won't let us in right now, due to the aforementioned failures.
   8852. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 09, 2020 at 06:36 PM (#5968666)
OK, so I found out that what I thought was the "date of death" in the Florida database is actually...something else that doesn't seem to match up with anything. But I found an actual source for the "date of death" info. And when I earlier said that Florida's reporting backlog had reached 2,000 deaths a few weeks ago, the number was really more like 1,100.

This doesn't factor into my estimates for future reporting or anything like that, I just thought it was interesting to note. But I felt it important to correct myself now that I know I was wrong before.

Also, that means when I said earlier that Texas' backlog was about as bad as Florida's...well, it's actually a lot worse.
   8853. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 09, 2020 at 07:29 PM (#5968673)
it’s true that the stockpile of pandemic supplies was depleted and that the government’s system for producing virus tests wasn’t designed for such heavy demand. So why, for the first three years of his presidency, did Trump do nothing about it? He often brags that he spent $2 trillion to beef up the military. But he squeezed the budget for pandemics, disbanded the federal team in charge of protecting the country from biological threats, and stripped down the Beijing office of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
...
In March, at a Fox News town hall, Bret Baier asked Trump why he hadn’t updated the test production system. “I’m thinking about a lot of other things, too, like trade,” Trump replied. “I’m not thinking about this.” In May, ABC’s David Muir asked him, “What did you do when you became president to restock those cupboards that you say were bare?” Trump gave the same answer: “I have a lot of things going on.”
...
Not until March 11, six weeks after blocking travel from China, did Trump take similar action against Europe...Two months later, based on genetic and epidemiological analyses, the CDC would confirm that Trump’s action had come too late, because people arriving from Europe—nearly 2 million of them in February, hundreds of whom were infected—had already accelerated the spread of the virus in the United States
...
The second step was to gear up production of masks, ventilators, and other medical supplies... when Azar requested $4 billion to stock up, the White House refused. Trump dismissed the outcry for masks and ridiculed Democrats for “forcing money” on him to buy supplies. “They say, ‘Oh, he should do more,’ ” the president scoffed in an interview on Feb. 28. “There’s nothing more you can do.”
...
From Feb. 14 to March 11, [Fauci] warned in a dozen hearings, forums, and interviews that the virus might be spreading “under the radar.” But Trump wasn’t interested. He liked having a low infection count—he bragged about it at rallies—and he understood that the official count would stay low if people weren’t tested
...
The CDC would later acknowledge that due to woefully insufficient testing, the overwhelming majority of infections had gone undiagnosed. Models would show that by mid-February, there were hundreds of undetected infections in the United States for every known case. By the end of the month, there were thousands.
....
When Azar briefed him about the virus in January, Trump called him an “alarmist” and told him to stop panicking.
...
“By April,” he explained, “in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.” ... There’s no evidence of Trump peddling the warm-weather theory prior to Feb. 7, when he had an overnight phone call with Xi. Immediately after that call, Trump began to promote the idea. Later, he mentioned that Xi had said it. When Fauci, Messonnier, Azar, and Redfield were asked about the theory, they all said it was an unwise assumption, since the virus was new. The American president, against the judgment of his public health officials, was feeding American citizens a false assurance passed to him by the Chinese president.
...
On Feb. 25, when Messonnier said Americans should prepare for school and workplace closures, the stock market plunged. Trump, in a rage, called Azar and threatened to fire Messonnier. The next day, the president seized control of the administration’s press briefings on the virus.

...
Trump’s eruption brought his subordinates into line. Shortly after the president’s angry call to Azar, Redfield told Congress that “our containment strategy has been quite successful.” At her next briefing, for the first time, Messonnier praised Trump by name. She parroted his talking points: that the United States had “acted incredibly quickly, before most other countries” and had “aggressively controlled our borders"
...
On Feb. 26 and Feb. 27, Trump denounced CNN and MSNBC for “panicking markets” by making the crisis “look as bad as possible.” He dismissed their reports as “fake” and tweeted, “USA in great shape!” At a rally in South Carolina on Feb. 28, he accused the press of “hysteria,” called criticism of his virus policies a “hoax,”
...
On a March 6 visit to the CDC, the president argued that instead of “going out and proactively looking to see where there’s a problem,” it was better to “find out those areas just by sitting back and waiting.” A proactive CDC testing program, lacking presidential support, never got off the ground.
...
On Feb. 24, Trump’s health advisers decided it was time to act. But they couldn’t get a meeting with Trump, because he was off to India to discuss another trade deal. When he returned, he blew up at Messonnier for talking about closing schools and offices. The meeting to discuss mitigation was canceled.
...
The CDC would later calculate that in the three weeks from “late February to early March, the number of U.S. COVID-19 cases increased more than 1,000-fold.” And researchers at Columbia University would find that the final two-week delay in mitigation, from March 1 to March 15, had multiplied the U.S. death toll by a factor of six. By May 3, the price of that delay was more than 50,000 lives.
...
On March 23, a week after he announced the mitigation guidelines, Trump began pushing to rescind them....“If it were up to the doctors, they may say, ‘Let’s keep it shut down,’ ” he shrugged. But “you can’t do that with a country, especially the No. 1 economy.” The next day, the stock market soared, and Trump took credit.
...
In April, he claimed that doctors who reported shortages of supplies were faking it. When an acting inspector general released a report that showed supplies were inadequate, Trump dismissed the report and replaced her. When a Navy captain wrote a letter seeking help for his infected crew, Trump endorsed the captain’s demotion. The letter “shows weakness,” he said
...
To block Fauci from disputing Trump’s assurances that the virus was “going away,” the White House barred him from doing most TV interviews. In June, when Fauci said resuming professional football would be risky, Trump rebuked him. “Informed Dr. Fauci this morning that he has nothing to do with NFL Football,” the president tweeted.
...
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.


trigger warning: republican death cult.
   8854. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 09, 2020 at 07:55 PM (#5968680)
Yesterday in Lake Charles, LA: Boaters parade Prien Lake to show support for President Trump
LAKE CHARLES, La. (KLFY) Hundreds showed support for President Trump Saturday in a boat parade along Prien Lake. ... The boats, most of them, had full display of Trump 2020, and Keep America Great flags and supporters were chanting ‘4 more years.’ The event lasted approximately one hour.

Three days earlier, also in Lake Charles: Governor on COVID-19: ”The situation is serious across the state and it is most serious in Lake Charles.”
Earlier this week, a Lake Charles City Council member proposed a resolution to ask the governor to let this area jump ahead to Phase Three to help save businesses. The governor says no.

“The part of the state that’s actually doing the worst right now is Lake Charles. So, if I were ever going to consider making an exception for a region or a parish, it certainly wouldn’t be for Lake Charles right now, and really that demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding of what the situation is. The situation is serious across the state and it is most serious in the Lake Charles area,” he said.
   8855. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 09, 2020 at 10:32 PM (#5968716)
Tailgaiting at LSU home games will be rebroadcast asthe next season of Survivor.
   8856. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 09, 2020 at 10:48 PM (#5968719)
Tailgaiting at LSU home games will be rebroadcast asthe next season of Survivor.
it's alright
   8857. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 09, 2020 at 11:35 PM (#5968725)
Tailgaiting at LSU home games will be rebroadcast asthe next season of Survivor.

May have to wait on that until next spring.
Dominoes started falling in earnest Saturday when the Mid-American Conference postponed fall sports. The Big Ten followed with an announcement that it was pausing its scheduled progression to full-pads football practices. A well-placed source told SI Saturday, “I think by the end of the week the fall sports will be postponed in all conferences.”

Even that timetable might be accelerated. Sources told SI on Sunday that the Big Ten is moving toward a decision to cancel the 2020 fall season, while engaging other Power 5 conferences on a uniform decision to be announced later this week.

"In the next 72 hours college football is going to come to a complete stop,” one industry source said.

If it indeed comes to pass, I half expect Gov. Abbott to compel UT and A&M to play a 12-game alternating home-and-home schedule this fall.
   8858. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 09, 2020 at 11:37 PM (#5968726)
so my U just got around to announcing, but not yet publicly, that as long as we're in the highest level of COVID-crisis everything but labs and studio classes are online. That should probably carry over to level 2, but at the very least it goes to show that the inevitable is always waiting for one with an axe for the budget.
   8859. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 10, 2020 at 12:21 AM (#5968727)
8857 - Little did Dabo know that "This" was the season. And what player going into the draft will play a bowl game if they try the spring season, maybe even championship games?

& I wonder what D'Eriq King is thinking now.
   8860. Tony S Posted: August 10, 2020 at 09:12 AM (#5968740)
America 2020.

North Paulding High School sophomore Hannah Watters told CNN she and her family and friends have been receiving screenshots of group chats with threatening language against her.

One message said “I know where this girl lives,” she said. Other threats included, “We’re going to jump every girl named Hannah in the tenth grade,” and, “Hannah is going to have a rough day at school on Monday,” Hannah told Boris Sanchez Sunday night on CNN’s “Newsroom.”


   8861. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 10, 2020 at 09:44 AM (#5968744)
Mob threatens 15 year old for posting a real life picture of school hallway.
   8862. SoSH U at work Posted: August 10, 2020 at 09:47 AM (#5968745)
“Hannah is going to have a rough day at school on Monday,”


This spirited schoolmate will have to wait until Wednesday to exact revenge, as the school will be closed today and tomorrow to clean up all the COVID.
   8863. Tony S Posted: August 10, 2020 at 09:54 AM (#5968746)
This spirited schoolmate will have to wait until Wednesday to exact revenge, as the school will be closed today and tomorrow to clean up all the COVID.


Also known as "hygiene theater".
   8864. PreservedFish Posted: August 10, 2020 at 10:08 AM (#5968750)
"Hannah cares about our safety. Let's get her!"
   8865. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 10:15 AM (#5968752)
"Hannah cares about our safety. Let's get her!"
dean wormer.
   8866. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: August 10, 2020 at 10:34 AM (#5968762)
This is an interesting discussion of a recent Nature article that looked at where pandemic simulations got things wrong. Among the discrepancies -- the United States was predicted to have among the best pandemic responses (and therefore lower-than-average number of cases and deaths) instead of one of the worst. The accompanying links are interesting too.
   8867. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 10:36 AM (#5968764)
This is an interesting discussion of a recent Nature article that looked at where pandemic simulations got things wrong. Among the discrepancies -- the United States was predicted to have among the best pandemic responses (and therefore lower-than-average number of cases and deaths) instead of one of the worst. The accompanying links are interesting too.
for three years we got lucky; our luck ran out.
   8868. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 10, 2020 at 11:14 AM (#5968774)
Back even before IHME and Fauci claimed we would have 60,000 deaths (in the case of Trump, less) in the USA, the white house and Birx predicted 100,000-240,000 deaths. By excess deaths we are very likely past that already, and maybe at 250,000 or higher now.

   8869. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 10, 2020 at 12:07 PM (#5968786)
Big Ten cancelling football, after trying to get the other P5 conferences to all cancel. Announcement tomorrow.


   8870. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 12:19 PM (#5968789)
On Monday, the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association released a report finding that over 97,000 children in the U.S. tested positive for coronavirus in the last two weeks of July


when trump says literally anything, it's wrong.
   8871. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 10, 2020 at 12:23 PM (#5968793)
Barry, does that mean other P5 are going forward or still quivering?
   8872. PepTech Posted: August 10, 2020 at 12:36 PM (#5968794)
He suggested that the virus could be killed by injecting disinfectants.
To be fair, if a virus host injects disinfectants, they won't be subsequently spreading it around.

So what he says is true. From a certain point of view.
   8873. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 10, 2020 at 12:40 PM (#5968795)

We always knew kids could get COVID. I don't know why this is surprising to anyone.

There's been some debate about how effective kids are at spreading the virus (to each other, to adults, etc.). The Georgia summer camp case study from a few weeks ago seemed to demonstrate that if you put kids in an environment that is practically *designed* to spread COVID, they will spread it.

Not sure what North Paulding tells us -- if you open a school in a county where 0.24% of people have tested positive in the past two weeks, and after a week of school about that percentage of your school test positive, isn't that pretty much what you'd expect? Maybe we'll find out over the next few days if there was a big outbreak at the school or it was basically limited to the cases we know about. That would be more helpful information.
   8874. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 10, 2020 at 12:47 PM (#5968796)
Not sure what North Paulding tells us -- if you open a school in a county where 0.24% of people have tested positive in the past two weeks, and after a week of school about that percentage of your school test positive, isn't that pretty much what you'd expect? Maybe we'll find out over the next few days if there was a big outbreak at the school or it was basically limited to the cases we know about. That would be more helpful information.
Did they pre-screen all the students? If not, and this just reflects background caseload, then it seems they should have expected this and really had no plan at all.
   8875. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 10, 2020 at 12:52 PM (#5968797)
Sam Houston State University recently delivered an important message to its faculty: The campus cannot meet federal guidelines for their safety during the pandemic.
Then, in the same memo, professors were told they must report to work in person.
“Social distancing is not possible on a college campus at all times,” Richard Eglsaer, provost at the Texas institution, wrote in the July 22 memo, which was obtained by The Chronicle. He added, “It will not be possible to meet CDC guidelines to the letter in all situations.”
Nevertheless, the university is reopening under a “hybrid” model that allows students to share a classroom with their professors at least once a week.
Faculty who wish to work remotely face an uphill battle. They must be “physically unable to teach,” Eglsaer wrote, and simply having a high-risk medical condition “does not qualify.”


TDC: Texas Department of Corrections/Texas Death Cult. Same thing.
   8876. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:07 PM (#5968801)
We always knew kids could get COVID. I don't know why this is surprising to anyone.


What percentage of Americans is covered in that "we"? Seriously, Dave. And of that fraction, what percent thinks you have to be next to a person with COVID for at least 10 or 115 minutes, depending on the state (ref 8723). And always seems like an oversell going back to the first month or so of the outbreak.
   8877. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:08 PM (#5968803)
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/bigten/2020/08/10/big-ten-votes-against-college-football-season-due-coivd-concerns/3332196001/

The Big Ten presidents have voted against conducting a season in the fall, three people with knowledge of the decision confirmed to the Detroit Free Press.

The people requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the decision. A formal announcement is expected on Tuesday, the people said.

The situation remains fluid as the details of what happens with a spring season remains unclear.

Coming during a tense week of emergency conference meetings, the vote signals college football's inability to grapple with the health and safety measures needed to combat the widespread transmission of the coronavirus while potentially leading to a domino effect of similar moves across the Power Five.

This article says it was 12-2, with Iowa and Nebraska as the only in favor: https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sports/college/iowa/football/2020/08/10/big-ten-football-cancels-season-iowa-college-football/3334949001/

The presidents voted, 12-2, to end the fall sports in the conference. Only Nebraska and Iowa voted to play, Dan Patrick said on his radio show Monday.

   8878. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:09 PM (#5968804)
Twitterheads are saying B10 and P12 are cancelling, B12 and ACC on the fence, and SEC trying to convince them to keep playing.
   8879. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:10 PM (#5968805)
Personally, I want as much to happen as possible, while still making good choices. I would like to see fanless CFB.
   8880. Jay Z Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:13 PM (#5968806)
We always knew kids could get COVID. I don't know why this is surprising to anyone.

There's been some debate about how effective kids are at spreading the virus (to each other, to adults, etc.). The Georgia summer camp case study from a few weeks ago seemed to demonstrate that if you put kids in an environment that is practically *designed* to spread COVID, they will spread it.

Not sure what North Paulding tells us -- if you open a school in a county where 0.24% of people have tested positive in the past two weeks, and after a week of school about that percentage of your school test positive, isn't that pretty much what you'd expect? Maybe we'll find out over the next few days if there was a big outbreak at the school or it was basically limited to the cases we know about. That would be more helpful information.


The schools issue has become politicized now.

The reports way back when were that opening schools did not increase community spread. If you have a lot of COVID-19 cases in your community, yes, some will be in your schools.

Also, many states have done just fine in increasing community spread during the summer months, with schools closed.

The initial studies were done in response to those who believed that schools would be a particular hotbed for cultivating COVID-19, because kids are the perfect petri dish for incubating all diseases. I think that belief has been proven to be false.

Places like here, the issue is being discussed via click bait. My desire would be to base all openings and closing on community spread and priorities. Schools should be a bigger priority than bars and restaurants. However, school openings were decoupled from other openings, so we have schools closed, bars and restaurants open.
   8881. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:15 PM (#5968807)
Twitterheads are saying B10 and P12 are cancelling, B12 and ACC on the fence, and SEC trying to convince them to keep playing.
i'm surprised the ACC is on the fence, if only because it'd be hilarious for duke, wake forest and georger tech to force clemson to cancel their season.
   8882. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:22 PM (#5968810)

Also, many states have done just fine in increasing community spread during the summer months, with schools closed.


That doesn't argue for opening schools, but precisely the opposite.
   8883. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:38 PM (#5968814)
Twitterheads are saying ... SEC trying to convince them to keep playing.

And in the least surprising news of the day.....
   8884. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:42 PM (#5968815)
That doesn't argue for opening schools, but precisely the opposite.

When a thing is "politicized" it argues for whatever you want it to argue for.
   8885. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:46 PM (#5968816)
That doesn't argue for opening schools, but precisely the opposite.
this fireworks factory has had a lot of accidents recently; we're going to start production on flamethrowers next week.
   8886. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:48 PM (#5968817)
In most parts of the country, aren't bars and restaurants outdoor only, or indoor at reduced capacity?

I'm sympathetic to schools taking these types of approaches (outdoor only and/or reduced capacity), especially in areas where the spread is more or less controlled at the moment. The strong negative reaction to some of these school openings is that they don't seem to be making anything more than token efforts even if they are in hot zones.
   8887. Jay Z Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:50 PM (#5968818)
That doesn't argue for opening schools, but precisely the opposite.


How?

The community spread the virus without schools being opened at all. Keeping schools closed isn't going to change that.

Closing one element of society isn't going to keep people from contracting the virus. Time marches on. A limited number of children are going to die from contracting COVID-19. Closing all schools isn't going to make that number zero. Because kids are going to get it from their parents, the pods and ad hoc daycares that are being set up in lieu of a protracted school closing period, and so on. Same with baseball players or anyone else. Cancel the season, players are still going to contract COVID-19 all on their own. The question with particular segments of society is the level of increased spread, if any, the activity creates, and the measures that may be put into place to combat that.
   8888. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:52 PM (#5968819)
The community spread the virus without schools being opened at all. Keeping schools closed isn't going to change that.

this fireworks factory has had a lot of accidents recently; we're going to start production on flamethrowers next week.
   8889. Hank Gillette Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:52 PM (#5968820)
What is the ratio of asymptomatic people to positive cases?


This is not a direct answer to your question, but this article is fascinating for several reasons.

One is that some people seem to have a partial immunity to COVID-19. Researchers are not sure what is causing this: whether certain other vaccines also help the body fight the novel coronavirus, or possibly that antibodies created fighting off a cold help provide partial immunity (not exactly crazy; most colds are caused by coronaviruses).

Another big takeaway is that when mask use increases, so does the number of asymptomatic cases:

In an article published this month in the Journal of General Internal Medicine, Gandhi noted that in some outbreaks early in the pandemic in which most people did not wear masks, 15 percent of the infected were asymptomatic. But later on, when people began wearing masks, the rate of asymptomatic people was 40 to 45 percent.


Past research on other, non-lethal viruses suggests that getting hit with a smaller viral load makes you less sick than a larger one (which seems logical, but viruses aren’t always logical). The chain of logic then suggests that masks are providing at least partial protection by reducing the viral load and leading to less severe infections.

It’s possible that we could get this under some sort of control if we could only get universal use of masks. Good luck with that!

   8890. Hank Gillette Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:55 PM (#5968821)
“We need football,” LSU head coach Ed Orgeron said at a roundtable this month, calling the sport the “lifeblood of our country.”


This brings to mind the quote by Upton Sinclair:
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”
   8891. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:56 PM (#5968822)
Gandhi noted that in some outbreaks early in the pandemic in which most people did not wear masks, 15 percent of the infected were asymptomatic. But later on, when people began wearing masks, the rate of asymptomatic people was 40 to 45 percent.
15 percent of who?

people who were tested? meaning people whose symptoms were severe enough to warrant being tested at a time when testing was extremely scarce? or, i guess medical personnel and other professionals in high risk vocations such as meatpacking, playing basketball, or interacting with donald trump?

It’s possible that we could get this under some sort of control if we could only get universal use of masks. Good luck with that!
vote democrat.
   8892. Jay Z Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:56 PM (#5968823)
In most parts of the country, aren't bars and restaurants outdoor only, or indoor at reduced capacity?


Where I live, WI, there are no restrictions. Republican legislature got Republican judges to overturn Democratic governor's Safer At Home order on a party line vote. Wisconsin has virtually nothing right now. Local communities and businesses may pass their own restrictions.

So in WI, bars and restaurants are wide open. Schools are on a district by district basis, most are going virtual.
   8893. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5968824)
In an article published this month in the Journal of General Internal Medicine, Gandhi noted that in some outbreaks early in the pandemic in which most people did not wear masks, 15 percent of the infected were asymptomatic. But later on, when people began wearing masks, the rate of asymptomatic people was 40 to 45 percent.
Does this control for the amount of testing? If not, it's useless, since in most places pretty much only people with symptoms got tested early on.
   8894. Hank Gillette Posted: August 10, 2020 at 01:59 PM (#5968825)
There's every reason to think the undercounting of coronoavirus deaths in India is massive.


You mean it’s not that India actually has a low COVID-19 death rate because they are treating everyone with chloroquine?
   8895. puck Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:08 PM (#5968832)
The initial studies were done in response to those who believed that schools would be a particular hotbed for cultivating COVID-19, because kids are the perfect petri dish for incubating all diseases. I think that belief has been proven to be false.


I have not been able to keep up on this. What has been proven false? That schools result in more spread than the overall community spread? Or does it go even further, that "kids" have been shown to not even contribute to community spread?

And as for "kids" -- is there any difference among age groups in regard to susceptibility to contracting the disease and spreading it, or is the same for kindergarten through 18 year old high school students?

   8896. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:09 PM (#5968834)
So in WI, bars and restaurants are wide open. Schools are on a district by district basis, most are going virtual.

Not schools' fault they're being the only ones being responsible.
   8897. Hank Gillette Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:22 PM (#5968841)
Personally, I want as much to happen as possible, while still making good choices. I would like to see fanless CFB.


How are you going to make good choices if you play football? Unlike baseball, where there is limited physical contact with opposing players, football is all about physical contact. One asymptomatic lineman could take out the entire backfield of the opposing team.
   8898. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:24 PM (#5968843)
How are you going to make good choices if you play football? Unlike baseball, where there is limited physical contact with opposing players, football is all about physical contact. One asymptomatic lineman could take out the entire backfield of the opposing team.
or, hear me out: if you don't test anyone, then noone will test positive.
   8899. Jay Z Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:31 PM (#5968848)
I have not been able to keep up on this. What has been proven false? That schools result in more spread than the overall community spread? Or does it go even further, that "kids" have been shown to not even contribute to community spread?


My understanding of the studies was that opening schools did not increase the rate of spread in a community.
   8900. Jay Z Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:32 PM (#5968850)
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