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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 9747 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   8901. Jay Z Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:38 PM (#5968852)
Not schools' fault they're being the only ones being responsible.


WI is not a particularly hard hit state as yet, as far as USA goes anyway. Case numbers went up into July, then leveled off. Case numbers in states tend to be crap anyway due to testing variations. Deaths have been fairly constant for months at 10-15 a day.

I don't think schools are decided on a case level at all, more administrator and parental concerns. In theory, here, if there is no particular spike but the constant 10-15 a day, schools will be closed the entire academic year, and June 2021 we're still in the same spot. With bars and restaurants open (for those who will go) the entire time.

It just doesn't work to decide these things on a case by case basis. Because the case numbers being high enough leads to people's fears which leads to other decisions being made. So the court mandated decision to have bars and restaurants wide open, then those businesses are hurting anyway because of lack of customers, and the ones that do go out get infected enough to keep everything else closed... the sequence of decisions or lack of them is not good.
   8902. RJ in TO Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:46 PM (#5968855)
Deaths have been fairly constant for months at 10-15 a day.
To check, this constitutes a not particularly hard hit state for the US? The last time Canada had more than 15 deaths in a day (as best I can tell) was July 16th, and the last time we had mode than 10 deaths in a day was July 30th. Even with these relative low death rates, and a positive test rate that's typically less than 1% on 40K tests a day, we're still seeing a lot of pushback on reopening schools, without at least some limitations on class size, masks, and doing whatever is possible to push online options.
   8903. RJ in TO Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:50 PM (#5968856)
Also, that's not intended to be a brag about "look how good Canada is doing," but rather noting the very different baselines our nations and states/provinces seem to be working from in terms of what is considered to be acceptable levels for reopening.
   8904. EddieA Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:51 PM (#5968857)
i'm surprised the ACC is on the fence, if only because it'd be hilarious for duke, wake forest and georger tech to force clemson to cancel their season.


This tickled me. The SEC has to play, even if it's just amongst themselves. Notre Dame was joining the ACC this football season so they would have a schedule. Would be interesting if Clemson could play Notre Dame in a best of 5 or 7 for the right to play the SEC champ. No other ACC schools and towns are so football dependent. I'd imagine they'd still have revenue. Maybe the SEC could opt Kentucky, Arkansas, and Missouri out and adopt Clemson and Notre Dame for the year.
   8905. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:56 PM (#5968858)
Also, that's not intended to be a brag about "look how good Canada is doing," but rather noting the very different baselines our nations and states/provinces seem to be working from in terms of what is considered to be acceptable levels for reopening.
america is run by morons, for somehow even dumber morons.
   8906. RJ in TO Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:58 PM (#5968861)
Also, in terms of "I'm not quite sure what they're thinking" news, Quebec students Grade 5 and up will be required to wear masks in hallways, but not classrooms
   8907. Hank Gillette Posted: August 10, 2020 at 02:59 PM (#5968862)
Does this control for the amount of testing? If not, it's useless, since in most places pretty much only people with symptoms got tested early on.


Good question. I don’t know if there was anywhere in the U.S. early on where there were enough tests available to be able to do random testing.

She doesn’t say exactly where the 15% comes from, just that a systematic review of earlier studies, before facial masking was widely practiced, placed the proportion of asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 at 15%.

She did give the example of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, where presumably everyone (or nearly everyone was tested), 20% of the people testing positive were asymptomatic. On a later, different cruise, all passengers were issued surgical masks and all staff provided N95 masks after the initial case of COVID-19 on the ship was detected. 81% of the infected patients were asymptomatic. The numbers may be small, but the difference is pretty dramatic.

It’s might be worth reading the article for yourself.

   8908. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5968864)
At first, the #WeWantToPlay movement seemed diametrically opposed to last week’s college football player movement—the #WeAreUnited front led by Pac-12 players who threatened to sit out of the coming season unless the conference agreed to a list of demands. As it turns out, though, both movements are aligned: The players who are tweeting #WeWantToPlay and #WeAreUnited are driven by the fact that college football’s decisions are being made without them.

On Sunday, a group of players from all five major conferences released a joint statement asking for both a 2020 season and individual players’ ability to opt out of that season. This group included some of the biggest-name players in the country, including Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields, Oregon offensive lineman Penei Sewell, Alabama running back Najee Harris, and Oklahoma State running back Chuba Hubbard. They requested the implementation of “universal mandated health and safety procedures” and “guaranteed eligibility whether a player chooses to play the season or not.”

At Clemson, a school where 37 players were infected, defensive end Xavier Thomas announced he will redshirt the season after complications from COVID-19 and a bout of strep throat left him with difficulty breathing. At Houston, defensive tackle Sedrick Williams opted out due to heart complications from the virus. While explaining his decision, Williams cited a story about former Florida State basketball player Michael Ojo, who died of a heart attack last week at age 27, reportedly after recovering from COVID.
Seeing pro sports carry on in the midst of a pandemic may feel strange, but the players involved are professionals who understand the risks, signed off on the health protocols, and decided to play in exchange for money. None of that would be true for a college football season.
   8909. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 03:16 PM (#5968867)
The Transportation Security Administration discovered roughly three times the number of firearms in carry-on bags last month compared to last year despite an immense drop in airline passengers due to the covid-19 pandemic.

“TSA is diligently working to ensure our employees and passengers are safe and secure while traveling during a pandemic, and yet we are noticing a significant increase in loaded firearms coming into checkpoints,” TSA Administrator David Pekoske said in a statement....“even more concerning” is that 80% of firearms discovered in airport checkpoints are loaded.
   8910. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 03:24 PM (#5968869)
Q: What sticks out to you in your memory from that time?

Of all the patients I took care of in New York, I only had one survive.


Q: What do you want people in Houston to know?

The units are completely full. I can tell you that the vast majority of the patients in my unit are COVID-positive patients. It’s very bad here, a lot of Houston is not taking it seriously. And I noticed that when I first came home from New York and I was in quarantine, a lot of people thought, “This is not as big of a deal as what happened in New York,” and “they’re only showing you the bad things on TV.” But the bad things are real. I have an older co-worker who is a nurse practitioner here in Houston—he worked in the ICU, and he himself now has COVID. And I can guarantee you that he wore the best PPE available to health care workers. He is the best NP I’ve ever worked with. And he’s fighting for his life. He’s not doing well. So when I see people here talk about how this is a hoax or make it political—it really is an insult to a lot of health care workers. We see people dying all the time.

   8911. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 03:30 PM (#5968871)
According to reports, Nebraska and Iowa are the only two Big Ten schools to vote in favor of playing football this season.https://t.co/LVniDVVzu3 pic.twitter.com/PekNdCMSZY

— 247Sports (@247Sports) August 10, 2020
   8912. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 10, 2020 at 03:31 PM (#5968872)

What percentage of Americans is covered in that "we"? Seriously, Dave.

Well, I was talking about the regular posters in this thread. But even the COVID minimizers that I talk to don't claim that kids can't get it.

The community spread the virus without schools being opened at all. Keeping schools closed isn't going to change that....The question with particular segments of society is the level of increased spread, if any, the activity creates, and the measures that may be put into place to combat that.

The second sentence I think hits the nail on the head. In most states, the R0 is estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.2 right now. If opening schools changes the R0 from 0.9 to 1.0 or 1.0 to 1.1, that has a big impact on the course of the pandemic in any given locality. In areas with very few cases, maybe it makes sense to reopen schools with active monitoring of community spread and whether any of that is driven by the schools. If you realize that you need to close them, you can probably do so with relatively limited damage. But if you already have a lot of active cases, reopening seems pretty risky to me -- especially if you're one of the states that just started to get things back under control within the past few weeks.

The initial studies were done in response to those who believed that schools would be a particular hotbed for cultivating COVID-19, because kids are the perfect petri dish for incubating all diseases. I think that belief has been proven to be false.

There was a German study done based on schools in Saxony, but Saxony had 7 cases per million residents per day at the time of the reopening. It might be a good indicator of what would happen in places that largely have the virus under control, not sure that places like TX/FL/GA should expect the same results. Are there other studies you're thinking of?
   8913. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 10, 2020 at 03:49 PM (#5968876)
If you want to go back a few months, as Clapper did a few weeks ago, you can produce a Guardian link saying kids won't get it. A bit later, kids are only half as likely. A few days ago, Covid-19 may spread more easily among children than thought, report warns.

But sure, stay with the early predictions and forget what we've learned since. Enjoy the summer COVID-free lull before the second wave comes in late November.
   8914. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 04:53 PM (#5968887)
Mark Giannotto @mgiannotto
If the Big Ten shut down, it could have "a profound effect" on the AAC, commissioner Mike Aresco says on @929espn "We want to play because we don't think there's no medical reason not to play at this point."
this guy should have his college degree taken away.
   8915. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 10, 2020 at 05:32 PM (#5968893)
Jason Munz @munzly
Memphis predident M. David Rudd on @929espn says he’s been a little surprised by the various conference’s 180 over the last few days.
He blames it on a “lack of uniformity and national leadership on this.”

I'd like to think he didn't just notice.
   8916. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 10, 2020 at 08:44 PM (#5968931)
Texas Schools' new high-stakes testing dilemma
The number of Texans being tested for the coronavirus has fallen sharply in recent weeks, a trend that has worried public health experts as officials consider sending children back to school while thousands more Texans are infected each day.
In the week ending Aug. 8, an average 36,255 coronavirus tests were administered in Texas each day — a drop of about 42% from two weeks earlier, when the average number of daily tests was 62,516.
At the same time, the percentage of tests yielding positive results has climbed, up to 20% on average in the week ending Aug. 8. Two weeks earlier, the average positivity rate was around 14%.


Meanwhile
Since March, the Trump administration has pushed thousands of migrant children back to their home countries without legal screenings or protection, citing the risk that they could be carrying COVID-19 into the United States.
But by the time the children are boarded on planes home, they’ve already been tested for the virus — and proven not to have it.
Court documents, and information given by Immigration and Customs Enforcement to congressional staff last week, reveal that the Trump administration has agreed to test every child in its custody before sending them back to their home countries under the expulsion policy.
   8917. Tony S Posted: August 10, 2020 at 09:47 PM (#5968946)
Life is close to normal in New Zealand.

With the virus under control in the island nation, Radio New Zealand's Colin Peacock said life is really quite ordinary.

"Shopping, movies, entertainment, going to bars," he said. "We can dance as close as we like to each other in nightclubs as late as we like. So everything is just fine in that regard, and business is carrying on as normal."


They took their medicine, sacrificed for a little while, and now their economy's doing just fine.

Deferred gratification. What a concept.

   8918. Lassus Posted: August 10, 2020 at 10:27 PM (#5968955)
I feel like the United States is chock full of dangerous morons; but a comparison to new Zealand isn't really fair on any level.
   8919. Tony S Posted: August 10, 2020 at 10:30 PM (#5968956)
I feel like the United States is chock full of dangerous morons; but a comparison to new Zealand isn't really fair on any level.


NZ certainly has some built-in advantages in dealing with the virus, but (a) other island nations haven't done nearly as well, and (b) while they certainly must have a few science-deniers and anti-mask loons, they have no influence on national policy.
   8920. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 10, 2020 at 10:49 PM (#5968960)
There’s been a decline in testing in FL too. I’m not sure what’s driving it — the hurricane was the obvious cause last week, but yesterday looked like a “hurricane day”.

FWIW even just in the first week you could see a definite uptick in the CFRs in Florida after they reduced the testing during the hurricane. They were clearly missing more cases than normal, because the fatality rates for each age group, which have followed a rough but consistent pattern for almost 2 months, spiked in a bunch of the age groups. Didn’t really see any change in the very young groups, where deaths are so rare that there isn’t much of a pattern, and in the 90+ age group where I suspect most diagnoses are coming from doctors/hospitals, not standalone testing facilities (since most of those cases are quite serious, you’re less likely to miss them.)
   8921. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 10, 2020 at 11:02 PM (#5968963)
I can't find the link (an interview with someone at Harvard, perhaps?), but I recently read a suggestion that the initial low transmission rate among children was an artifact of methodological assumptions: because their symptoms typically are less serious, they're less likely to be thought of as index cases.
   8922. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 10, 2020 at 11:12 PM (#5968965)
ANd the Mountain West canceled its football season, if that's not logged in this thread.
   8923. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 10, 2020 at 11:15 PM (#5968967)
I can't find the link (an interview with someone at Harvard, perhaps?), but I recently read a suggestion that the initial low transmission rate among children was an artifact of methodological assumptions: because their symptoms typically are less serious, they're less likely to be thought of as index cases.


can i just take a second to point out that i was the earliest, loudest and most consistent voice around here pushing back on the idea that children are invulnerable to covid?

okay. carry on.
   8924. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 10, 2020 at 11:45 PM (#5968973)
ok, here it is, William Hanage (Assoc. Prof. Epidemiology, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, 15 July),

The difficulty in answering the question is a general one, which is that our ability to observe transmission is altered by the actions that we take and indeed the state of the pandemic outside. So, for instance, a simple example of this. Household studies have typically found that children are rarely infected and rarely transmit. But those household studies all suffer from bias, which is that they start by identifying a person who was infected and then testing the people around them. Now, because children are much less likely to have severe disease or even noticeable symptoms at all, that means that an adult is more likely to be identified as the index case. And then when you go around then and you sample the kids, you find the kid and you assume that the adult must have transmitted to the kid.

The other thing about it is that the closure of schools and other interaction, other actions that people have taken as part of social distancing, limit the opportunity of children to make contacts along which the virus could transmit. So, we’re not seeing the types of interactions that we might expect if schools are opened. We also have to make some very, very clear distinctions between age groups. Because my reading, of the evidence I’ve seen so far, is that younger children are, roughly speaking, about half as likely to become infected, as adults are. Maybe a little bit less likely to transmit, but that’s not as clear of a data point. And then that’s very different when we move to high schoolers. So in high schoolers, and it’s difficult to say exactly what happened in this, but probably whether Israel’s been having trouble with its reopening. They opened the high schools with large class sizes. And then they had a large number of outbreaks linked to schools. It’s very difficult to know whether or not that’s due to the schools themselves or just the schools reflecting what was going on in the community outside.
   8925. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 11, 2020 at 01:20 AM (#5968976)
Interesting. You’re rarely going to know who infected who within a specific household; it seems strange that researchers would assume that transmission went in one direction without specific evidence to that effect. Still, if you have a lot of households where the adult was infected and the child wasn’t, but very few where the child was infected and not the adult, that might lead you to believe that children were less likely to transmit it. (His second paragraph raises a valid concern with drawing that conclusion, of course.)

Anyway, for better or worse we have a lot of experiments beginning now with schools opening. Hopefully people are studying them. I would certainly love to find out that in fact the risk is low.
   8926. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 11, 2020 at 01:54 AM (#5968982)
Lower grades it might be, Dave. From what I read, upper grades are a much greater risk. I enjoyed the suggestion about attribution and fine it credible because all disciplines and methodologies must have assumptions.
I noticed today that my school's criminology program is offering a course, Homicide: Theory into Practice," which I hope is about detection not execution.
   8927. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 11, 2020 at 02:20 AM (#5968983)

FYI, someone the other day was asking what percentage of cases are asymptomatic. I don't know the answer, but I was looking back at the Spanish antibody study just now and about 1/3 of the people who had antibodies had been asymptomatic. About half were asymptomatic or only had 1-2 symptoms.
   8928. BrianBrianson Posted: August 11, 2020 at 03:34 AM (#5968984)
The South Korean household study isn't the only thing pointing this way - I certainly buy that we're not yet sure how much kids are less likely to transmit COVID because they're less likely to have it, and how much because when they do have it they transmit it less effectively. It's also true that "kids" sometimes means 0-17.99999 years of age, and we should think of it as some kind of continuum where by you teens or twenties you're like an adult.

There are definitely other studies that support the conclusions kids aren't transmitting it as much as adults. The cross-country "what measures slowed the growth of infections" analyses (generally) found school closures had small effects if any, which points the same way (but of course, we can have some skepticism of how well things could be sorted, given the number of possible confounding variables)

There's also something to be aware of in how you tend to react when data looks like what you expect vs. when it looks like what you don't expect, but that cuts both ways.
   8929. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: August 11, 2020 at 05:49 AM (#5968985)
The Scottish Premier League season is now at risk after a Celtic player took a 'secret' trip to Spain, did not self-isolate on return, and went on to play a game with the team. Ducking out for a couple of beers or a home visit to a friend or relative - I get it, though it's a dumb move. Hopping on a return flight? That's quite a big failure of distancing.
   8930. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: August 11, 2020 at 08:18 AM (#5968988)
Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 10, 2020 at 10:49 PM (#5968960)
There’s been a decline in testing in FL too. I’m not sure what’s driving it — the hurricane was the obvious cause last week, but yesterday looked like a “hurricane day”


There's also a decline in testing here in South Carolina. Testing is down from around 9-10k per day to 6-7k. Positives are down from 1800-2000 to about 1000 per day (700 yesterday). The percent positive is also down from 18-20% to 12-15% during the same time frame. The only explanation that isn't conspiratorial is that enough municipalities finally enacted mask ordinances that it started to make a dent in transmission, so people don't feel the need to get tested as much.

My daughter starts in person school Monday at a local Catholic school. Masks are mandatory unless you fill out an opt-out waiver. There doesn't have to be a medical basis for using the waiver. I enjoy the idea that a Catholic school, of all schools, feels like they can't enforce a mandatory requirement.
   8931. Lassus Posted: August 11, 2020 at 08:23 AM (#5968989)
but (a) other island nations haven't done nearly as well

Hmmmm... Iceland? Madagascar? Guam? Some of the Bahamas are doing great (Eleuthera, one of our favorite vacations, very close to FL, apparently has no cases.) Which island nations aren't doing well?
   8932. Lassus Posted: August 11, 2020 at 08:28 AM (#5968990)
I enjoy the idea that a Catholic school, of all schools, feels like they can't enforce a mandatory requirement.

They're totally lost without their obsession on girls and their clothes.


   8933. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: August 11, 2020 at 08:41 AM (#5968993)
Which island nations aren't doing well?


Great Britain seems like the most obvious example. They did manage to get the rate down to a few hundred cases in June, but now, like much of their nearest peers, it's on the way back up again. Ireland, similar.
   8934. Lassus Posted: August 11, 2020 at 08:55 AM (#5968996)
Great Britain seems like the most obvious example

Heh. Whoops. I knew there was a big one I was forgetting.
   8935. Tony S Posted: August 11, 2020 at 08:57 AM (#5968997)
Great Britain seems like the most obvious example. They did manage to get the rate down to a few hundred cases in June, but now, like much of their nearest peers, it's on the way back up again. Ireland, similar.


Same story, more or less, with Iceland and Japan. Taiwan is the island country that's approached New Zealand's success.

The Philippines has been a disaster.
   8936. Lassus Posted: August 11, 2020 at 09:04 AM (#5968998)
I think it would be hard to put The Philipines in that category of countries. It's a 7600-island country.

I guess I hadn't really kept in my brain how Iceland had done, which I thought was actually pretty good all along.
   8937. Tony S Posted: August 11, 2020 at 09:10 AM (#5968999)
Guam?


Their governor tested positive for the virus the other day.

Guam is part of the US, though, so it doesn't have much say over comings and goings.
   8938. SoSH U at work Posted: August 11, 2020 at 09:12 AM (#5969000)
I enjoy the idea that a Catholic school, of all schools, feels like they can't enforce a mandatory requirement.


As I mentioned a few pages back, that isn't the case with the Archdiocese of Chicago.
   8939. Ron J Posted: August 11, 2020 at 09:17 AM (#5969001)
There's a Washington Post article here that has a link to studies of asymptomatic infections. The results are wildly variable.
   8940. Tony S Posted: August 11, 2020 at 09:18 AM (#5969002)
Well, crap. I jinxed them.

Hopefully they can smother this quickly.
   8941. Lassus Posted: August 11, 2020 at 09:28 AM (#5969005)
The results are wildly variable.

I feel like we're getting this a lot.
   8942. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 09:30 AM (#5969007)
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Tuesday the country had approved a largely untested vaccine for the coronavirus, which will be part of a widespread voluntary inoculation effort in October. The announcement comes even though the drug developed by the Gamaleya Institute in Moscow has not completed the clinical trial phase of development, meaning it has only been used on a small scale. Russian scientists have also failed to publish any of their scientific research that backs up their claim. That hasn’t stopped Putin from using the drug as a propaganda tool, telling a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, “It works effectively enough"
   8943. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 11, 2020 at 09:43 AM (#5969010)
Dangerously high estimates of number of infections have been making the rounds. It's dangerous because it will lead a certain segment of the population to believe the mitigation efforts we have made so far have been next to worthless, and that we are near herd immunity in many counties and states.

I'd like to see estimates using this method for the border counties in Arizona, which are now at 5.5% of the population as confirmed cases, with a very high percent positive test. They must be up in the 60-70% range, with 95% confidence interval from 40% to 90%. This means they are already at true herd immunity (i.e., with zero mitigation), which makes absolutely no sense.
   8944. DCA Posted: August 11, 2020 at 09:55 AM (#5969012)

8925: Interesting. You’re rarely going to know who infected who within a specific household; it seems strange that researchers would assume that transmission went in one direction without specific evidence to that effect. Still, if you have a lot of households where the adult was infected and the child wasn’t, but very few where the child was infected and not the adult, that might lead you to believe that children were less likely to transmit it. (His second paragraph raises a valid concern with drawing that conclusion, of course.)

It's actually the first paragraph that raises this exact concern. There may be many households with a positive kid and negative adults, but the kid is asymptomatic so they don't include those households in the sample. That's the exact bias he talks about.

You would have to randomly select households from the population to test (not from confirmed covid cases which is the usual method) in order to do what you propose.
   8945. Lassus Posted: August 11, 2020 at 11:31 AM (#5969028)
[error]
   8946. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 11, 2020 at 11:53 AM (#5969033)
To follow up on 8943, different Arizona counties have very different rates of coronavirus infection, yet all counties, not just the ones with the high rates, are experiencing fewer cases and newly infected per day in the past few weeks. That indicates behavior not background immunity is what is driving the changes.
   8947. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 12:47 PM (#5969050)
6 weeks ago:
Officials in states across the US have reacted with alarm to the Trump administration’s plan to end federal support for some Covid-19 testing sites, warning it could cause further spread of a disease that is already surging back and calling the move “irresponsible”.

The White House confirmed on Wednesday it will no longer fund 13 testing sites, including seven in Texas, despite that state reporting record highs in the number of coronavirus cases.


6 weeks ago:
President Donald Trump now says that he was not kidding when he told rallygoers over the weekend that he asked staff to slow down coronavirus testing, undercutting senior members of his own administration who said the comment was made in jest.

"I don't kid, let me just tell you, let me make it clear," Trump told a reporter on Monday, when asked again if he was kidding when he said Saturday he instructed his administration to slow down coronavirus testing.

The President then sought to highlight the US coronavirus testing numbers and asserted that "by having more tests, we have more cases."


today:
"There’s been a decline in testing in FL too. I’m not sure what’s driving it"
   8948. Tony S Posted: August 11, 2020 at 01:01 PM (#5969053)

Texas has decided to bury its head in the sand.

If I don't step on the scale, I'm not overweight.

Apparently certain governors have calculated that the virus is more likely to affect communities and constituencies less likely to vote for them, so why not throw the gates open.
   8949. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 11, 2020 at 01:13 PM (#5969057)
The only explanation that isn't conspiratorial is that enough municipalities finally enacted mask ordinances that it started to make a dent in transmission, so people don't feel the need to get tested as much.

It's like there's science or something behind the recommendations.
   8950. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 11, 2020 at 01:21 PM (#5969061)
Florida:
Although they still make up a relatively small number of the more than 8,000 total coronavirus deaths in the state, the number of younger adults who died of the disease quadrupled last month, underscoring a bitter mathematical reality: As more and more young people test positive for the coronavirus, more of them will die.
   8951. puck Posted: August 11, 2020 at 02:30 PM (#5969071)
Explosion of cases in New Zealand. Well, 4 cases, same family. They are doing the contract tracing.
   8952. Srul Itza Posted: August 11, 2020 at 02:43 PM (#5969077)
Also, in terms of "I'm not quite sure what they're thinking" news, Quebec students Grade 5 and up will be required to wear masks in hallways, but not classrooms


In a classroom, you can move the desks far enough apart, and have the students stay in their seats, such that social distancing rules apply.

In the Hallways, as people move around, that is a lot harder.

I am not saying this is a great idea, but there is a logic to it. They wear the masks until they get to their properly spaced desks, take them off, and then put them on when they leave.
   8953. Srul Itza Posted: August 11, 2020 at 02:54 PM (#5969078)
In most states, the R0 is estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.2 right now.


Hawaii at 1.38

We are seriously F'd.
   8954. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 11, 2020 at 03:05 PM (#5969080)
"We believe we can mitigate it down to a level that makes everyone safe," Wolfe told The Daily. "Can we safely have two teams meet on the field? I would say yes. Will it be tough? Yes. Will it be expensive and hard and lots of work? For sure. But I do believe you can sufficiently mitigate the risk of bringing COVID onto the football field or into the training room at a level that's no different than living as a student on campus."

Everything until that last sentence ...
But it looks like the All Clemson Conference is going ahead.
New Reports that the B1G voted this afternoon to cancel fall. PAC12+2 meets later in the day
   8955. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 11, 2020 at 03:30 PM (#5969084)
It seems Georgia may have set a record for reported deaths today. Not a good look for a state being bullheaded about their school reopening plans.

edit: I guess it depends on who is counting, but regardless it is a high day. Florida set a record too.
   8956. Captain Joe Bivens, Elderly Northeastern Jew Posted: August 11, 2020 at 03:32 PM (#5969085)
8942...That smells of...collusion? It's a less crazy theory than what Aubrey Huff is peddling about wearing masks. Low bar, I know, but still.
   8957. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: August 11, 2020 at 04:02 PM (#5969089)
So SC reported 900+ new cases, but only 4500 tests. That's more than 50% less tests than they were reporting about 3 weeks ago per day. The positive rate was back at 20%. It just seems odd that testing has dropped so far, so fast. There hasn't been a real ramp down that correlates to other states/countries that had their COVID taste first.
   8958. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 04:08 PM (#5969091)

@Brett_McMurphy
Pac-12 has canceled fall football season, source told @Stadium. “We’re done,” source said. Official announcement at 4:30 p.m. ET
   8959. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 04:09 PM (#5969092)
Justin Baragona @justinbaragona
Lou Holtz tells Fox News that college football needs to play amid coronavirus pandemic this fall: "Let's move on with our life! When they stormed Normandy, they knew there were going to be casualties -- there were going to be risks."
https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1293267651591012352
   8960. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 11, 2020 at 04:15 PM (#5969098)
Lou Holtz

Hasn't he done enough damage yet?
   8961. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 11, 2020 at 04:37 PM (#5969100)
It seems Georgia may have set a record for reported deaths today. Not a good look for a state being bullheaded about their school reopening plans.
edit: I guess it depends on who is counting, but regardless it is a high day. Florida set a record too.

Second highest days for TN and Alabama
   8962. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 11, 2020 at 04:47 PM (#5969101)

Is there a shortage of some chemical that is required in the testing process? A few states have seen a big dropoff in testing numbers recently.
   8963. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 11, 2020 at 04:53 PM (#5969103)
Are these counted tests of new unique people? Maybe they've run through a big fraction of the people who want to be tested, leaving fewer unique candidates. They could be retesting a larger and larger fraction of the population who have already been tested before.
   8964. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 11, 2020 at 05:04 PM (#5969106)
A couple of those dropping in recent weeks seem to have had upticks. Texas, Arizona, Florida, Missisippi, South Carolina not among them. The one that doesn't fit in that group but has been dropping a lot is Washington, which posted a string of very low test, 100 percent positive days.
   8965. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: August 11, 2020 at 05:10 PM (#5969108)

Hasn't he done enough damage yet?


Holtz should have stuck to linguistics.
   8966. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 11, 2020 at 05:21 PM (#5969111)
Lou's son Skip is the head coach at the only school whose football program I follow in the very least bit, that being Louisiana Tech. I'd prefer they not have to bury any of their players this fall, but maybe that's just me.
   8967. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 11, 2020 at 07:33 PM (#5969132)
Has treatment really gotten any better? NY state had 90,000 hospitalizations and 42,000 excess deaths. Florida (about the same population) so far has had 32,000 hospitalizations and, if you count excess deaths out to today, probably at least 12,000 excess deaths. More of the currently hospitalized in Florida are likely to die, so that's a pretty similar ratio. The Arizona ratio might be a tad lower, with 19,000 hospitalizations and 8,000 excess deaths.

The Connecticut ratio is a tad higher, and the New Jersey and Massachusetts ratios are much higher, but so is the Mississippi ratio. I didn't check other states.

Hospitalization data is not that reliable, admittedly, but there doesn't seem to be a strong dropoff in ratio of hospitalized to dead, which implies treatment hasn't been a major factor in reduction to IFR, if indeed there has even been a significant reduction at all.
   8968. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 11, 2020 at 07:36 PM (#5969133)
Texas will not set a record today, and may actually come in under 200 on Worldometer, although it was 220 on the State's dashboard, which logs death certificates.
Since Worldometer is a better snapshot of the moment, that's good news.
   8969. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 08:20 PM (#5969137)
Has treatment really gotten any better?
it's hard to believe it could have gotten worse.

it seems like cases are being caught earlier, less invasive protocols are being implemented (nasal canulas instead of ventilators, for instance), PPE isn't literally getting salvaged out of the trash (bag included).


otoh, state governments in some of the current hotspots would rather give speeches about covid being some democrat fake news scam, rather than treating it like a serious public health crisis. and so yeah, it makes some sense that outcomes in some of those places will lag behind less-deathculty localities.
   8970. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 11, 2020 at 09:07 PM (#5969141)
Per the latest version of its Community Standards Enforcement Report, which covers the Q2 period of April 2020 to June 2020, Facebook took action on 1.7 million pieces of content that violated its policies on suicide and self-injury in Q1, but just 911,000 in Q2. (That number is down from 5 million in Q4 2019.) While enforcement against content in violation of Facebook policies on child nudity and sexual exploitation rose from 8.6 million to 9.5 million, it was way down on Instagram, where the number fell from around 1 million to just over 479,000. Enforcement of rules prohibiting suicide and self-injury content on Instagram also plummeted from 1.3 million actions in Q1 to 275,000 actions in Q2. Instagram increased enforcement against graphic and violent content, but on Facebook that category fell from 25.4 million actions in Q1 to 15.1 million actions in Q2.

Facebook Vice President of Integrity Guy Rosen wrote in a blog post that the lower number of actions taken was the direct result of the coronavirus

Keep in mind that this is all according to Facebook, which has recently faced accusations it turns a blind eye to rule violations that are politically inconvenient as well as an employee walkout and advertiser boycott pressuring the company to do more about hate speech and misinformation
   8971. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 11, 2020 at 09:28 PM (#5969144)
Texas will not set a record today, and may actually come in under 200 on Worldometer, although it was 220 on the State's dashboard, which logs death certificates.
Since Worldometer is a better snapshot of the moment, that's good news.


The death news is good, but is the declining official caseload good? Reported tests have been steadily declining for two weeks and today were down almost 50% from about 3 weeks ago while the positive test rate has doubled from 12% on 7/31 to 24% today. It's the embodiment of the Trumpian strategy, "If you don't have so much testing, you'll have fewer cases."
   8972. gef, talking mongoose & suburban housewife Posted: August 11, 2020 at 09:37 PM (#5969146)
Lou's son Skip is the head coach at the only school whose football program I follow in the very least bit, that being Louisiana Tech.


A campus I spent a few hours on back in the day; a friend of mine got a master's in microbiology or something of the sort there back in '81 or so.
   8973. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 11, 2020 at 09:46 PM (#5969149)
According to Worldometer, today had the most reported deaths since May. There may have been a small catch-up effect as a result of the storm last week. Potentially last week was a tad low and this one will be a tad high, making them more or less equal (since last week was expected to be higher than this week, and at or above the peak of 2 weeks ago.)
   8974. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 11, 2020 at 11:26 PM (#5969164)
Gov. Greg Abbott, meeting with leaders in Texas’s sprawling Gulf Coast region to discuss his Covid-19 strategy, strongly suggested Tuesday that hospitalizations and cases from the virus remained far too high to allow a swift relaxation of business closures and other restrictions.

Good man, he's learning@
Mr. Abbott has set a 10 percent positive test rate as a fundamental goal in countering the coronavirus. Positive rates should be at or below 5 percent for at least 14 days before a state or country can safely reopen, according to the World Health Organization.

But not nearly fast enough. Ten percent was the criterion he used for the previous reopening. Fortunately, I have no life.

And Pat Rapper's Delight can attend a game at one of the Metroplex's many fine stadia.
   8975. Srul Itza Posted: August 11, 2020 at 11:32 PM (#5969165)
Gov. Greg Abbott, meeting with leaders in Texas’s sprawling Gulf Coast region to discuss his Covid-19 strategy, strongly suggested Tuesday that hospitalizations and cases from the virus remained far too high to allow a swift relaxation of business closures and other restrictions.


Texas GOP responds:

Burn the Heretic!
   8976. Hank Gillette Posted: August 12, 2020 at 12:49 AM (#5969174)
It seems Georgia may have set a record for reported deaths today. Not a good look for a state being bullheaded about their school reopening plans.

edit: I guess it depends on who is counting, but regardless it is a high day. Florida set a record too.


Texas has passed Massachusetts for fourth place in total deaths. Florida is likely to pass Massachusetts tomorrow.
   8977. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: August 12, 2020 at 06:00 AM (#5969180)
Great Britain seems like the most obvious example. They did manage to get the rate down to a few hundred cases in June, but now, like much of their nearest peers, it's on the way back up again. Ireland, similar.


To add to this point, today the UK GDP for Q2 was released, with a drop of 20.4% (helped by a rebound in June). That's the worst of the G7 nations, though Canada and Japan are still to release final data. It's also worse than pretty much all EU nations., including Spain and Italy. So the UK response has really been close to the worst of both worlds: very high excess death numbers - though not the worst per-capita in Europe - and very significant economic damage.

Further evidence that the choice in governing is not a simple tradeoff between economy and health.
   8978. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: August 12, 2020 at 06:17 AM (#5969181)
We are seriously F'd.

Y'know, whenever I get into too good of a mood, I just read this thread for a few minutes. Kay-reist almighty.

I can't help but wonder what this thread would've looked like had there been a Dem (or indeed anybody who wasn't you-know-whom) in the White House. Even if the situation was exactly the same, the tone probably would've been more much more upbeat, even optimistic. (And any criticism would've been couched as, "The President is doing all s/he can, but those ####### anti-science troglodyte Republicans are ####### everything up!")
   8979. Ron J Posted: August 12, 2020 at 07:05 AM (#5969182)
#8978 Maybe, but there are a fair number of Ontario residents in the thread and Doug Ford hasn't been getting reflexive push back and Ford's very much a conservative populist.

And Republican governors aren't all panned. I think pretty much all Ohio residents feel that DeWine's done a good job. (Though yes, anti-science troglodyte Republicans are in play there)

Nor will you find any reluctance to criticize Cuomo for instance. The most positive things you'll hear are on the order of, doing OK now but ...

And the quote you're responding to is in response to the current state in Hawaii. Not exactly a bastion of Republicanism.

   8980. Tony S Posted: August 12, 2020 at 08:02 AM (#5969183)
** double post **

   8981. Tony S Posted: August 12, 2020 at 08:09 AM (#5969186)
More genius from Florida.

Mind you, this esteemed law enforcement officer isn't just not enforcing mask orders. He's outright banning them marks of the beast.

The excuse is anti-police sentiment, or something. I know there are activists out there who say the police are trying to kill us, but I never expected a sheriff himself to come out and confirm it so nakedly.

   8982. Tony S Posted: August 12, 2020 at 08:24 AM (#5969190)
More Sturgis.

On Sunday, Pinard said he visited a local bar but left after people there were participating in a "sneeze contest."


"It was to see who can sneeze the furthest out," he said. "People were laughing and applauding. I said what the heck, they think it's fake," Pinard said, referring to COVID-19.


The bright side is that Sturgis attendees skew young, trim, and athletic, with no underlying health conditions. So the impact will be minimal.
   8983. PreservedFish Posted: August 12, 2020 at 08:50 AM (#5969192)
Question for anybody:

Positive rates should be at or below 5 percent for at least 14 days before a state or country can safely reopen, according to the World Health Organization.


Suppose you were the Covid Czar of your state. Would you use 5% as a threshold? Something else?

   8984. Ron J Posted: August 12, 2020 at 09:17 AM (#5969196)
#8983. Ontario's plans don't have a 5% threshold. Instead there are four tests that have to be met for each region (to move to the next stage -- if you get to Stage 3 schools are deemed safe to reopen -- pending any developments)

Virus spread and containment:

• A consistent two–to-four week decrease in the number of new daily COVID-19 cases.
• A decrease in the rate of cases that cannot be traced to a source.
• A decrease in the number of new COVID-19 cases in hospitals.

(These are the key metrics. A big change here can result in an area being moved back a stage -- RNJ )

Health system capacity:

• Sufficient acute and critical care capacity, including access to ventilators, to effectively respond to potential surges
• Ongoing availability of personal protective equipment (PPE) based on provincial directives and guidelines.

Public health system capacity

• Approximately
90 per cent of new COVID-19 contacts are being reached by local public health officials within one day, with guidance and direction to contain community spread.
(I don't think Ontario has ever reached this -- RNJ)

Incidence tracking capacity

• Ongoing testing of suspected COVID-19 cases, especially of vulnerable populations, to detect new outbreaks quickly.
• A shift to new and other ways of testing and contact tracing to promote widespread tracking of cases.

(This last seems more aspirational too -- RNJ)


   8985. RJ in TO Posted: August 12, 2020 at 09:23 AM (#5969198)
• A shift to new and other ways of testing and contact tracing to promote widespread tracking of cases.

(This last seems more aspirational too -- RNJ)
This is at least partially related to the COVID tracking app that was recently released, and which both the federal government and Ontario provincial government are promoting.
   8986. RJ in TO Posted: August 12, 2020 at 09:31 AM (#5969202)
#8978 Maybe, but there are a fair number of Ontario residents in the thread and Doug Ford hasn't been getting reflexive push back and Ford's very much a conservative populist.
I am certainly not a fan of Doug Ford in general, but I do (as do the other people I know who are also not generally fans of Doug Ford) think he's done a solid job with responding to the pandemic. He reacted quickly, has worked to increase testing capacity and acquire supplies for medical services, has put out a structured plan for reopening which he's generally stuck with, and listened to his experts. He's also been open about supporting and encouraging mask use. I am a bit concerned about his push to reopen the schools in September for onsite learning, and he has made some personal missteps with respect to traveling to his cottage at a time when he was telling others not to, but his overall performance has been strong.

I'll also be interested to see whether or not he'll be willing to actually pull back the reopening/reapply restrictions if cases start to spike in specific regions.
   8987. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 12, 2020 at 09:45 AM (#5969212)

Has treatment really gotten any better? NY state had 90,000 hospitalizations and 42,000 excess deaths. Florida (about the same population) so far has had 32,000 hospitalizations and, if you count excess deaths out to today, probably at least 12,000 excess deaths. More of the currently hospitalized in Florida are likely to die, so that's a pretty similar ratio. The Arizona ratio might be a tad lower, with 19,000 hospitalizations and 8,000 excess deaths.

As I mentioned a week or so ago, the death/hospitalization rate in Florida did improve from April through June -- it was like 27% for April cases, 20% for May cases, and 16-17% in June. July looks similar to June right now but will probably come in a bit higher when all the deaths are counted.

I think this is due to a combination of

- better treatment
- cases (and therefore hospitalizations) skewing younger
- a lower threshold for hospitalization, resulting in more mild cases being hospitalized

I could look into #2 if I had more time, which I don't right now. Not sure how to assess the other two.

One thing to note is that the percentage of cases that die without hospitalization has come down quite a bit from the early months. That makes me think that Florida was identifying a much higher proportion of cases in June/July than they were earlier, and/or that more people who wouldn't have gotten hospital care before are getting it. The latter in itself would indicate that care has improved -- more people who would have died outside of hospitals are at least getting hospital care.
   8988. Ron J Posted: August 12, 2020 at 09:48 AM (#5969214)
#8986 Well he did stick to his guns in terms of moving regions to step 3, despite a fair amount of pressure to approve Windsor-Essex earlier. And Windsor-Essex is the obvious test case for reversing gears too.

I'm ... cautiously optimistic. Among other things, when he's taken a "them's the rules" stance he's gotten strong backing.
   8989. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 12, 2020 at 09:53 AM (#5969216)
Early indications are that deaths topped out the week of 7/18 or 7/25 (as others here have noted as well), started to fell in the week ending 8/01, and continued to fall in the week ending 8/08. (Still early though for CDC data especially for the last 3-4 weeks, so this could still change.)

Middle of June was definitely the low point for excess deaths.

CDC provisional all-cause mortality Wednesday reports (because the CDC uses similar Wednesday numbers for their excess death calculations)
Date of report    week ending    (weeks back)   total counted deaths (USA)

5/28              5/23            1              14,955 (after memorial day, so reporting may be extra laggy)
6/03              5/30            1              15,332
6/10              6/06            1              14,037
6/17              6/13            1              16,558
6/24              6/20            1              15,221
7/01              6/27            1              16,520
7/08              7/04            1              13,314 (possible post-July 4 report effect)
7/15              7/11            1              15,492
7/22              7/18            1              16,321
7/29              7/25            1              17.405
8/05              8/01            1              16,771
8/12              8/08            1              15,719

6/03              5/23            2              35,991
6/10              5/30            2              35,744
6/17              6/06            2              38,045
6/24              6/13            2              35,666
7/01              6/20            2              36,035
7/08              6/27            2              31,694 (possible post-July 4 report effect)
7/15              7/04            2              31,214 (still low, maybe 7/4 was the low point as for reported deaths)
7/22              7/11            2              40,259
7/29              7/18            2              40,694
8/05              7/25            2              40,144
8/12              8/01            2              39,459

6/10              5/23            3              48,488
6/17              5/30            3              48,712
6/24              6/06            3              47,521
7/01              6/13            3              47,305
7/08              6/20            3              44,367 (same)
7/15              6/27            3              42,450 (same)
7/22              7/04            3              48.439
7/29              7/11            3              50,387
8/05              7/18            3              50,855
8/12              7/25            3              51,263

6/17              5/23            4              53,843
6/24              5/30            4              52,225
7/01              6/06            4              51,959
7/08              6/13            4              50.554
7/15              6/20            4              49.536
7/22              6/27            4              51.448
7/29              7/04            4              52,489
8/05              7/11            4              54,123
8/12              7/18            4              55,035

6/24              5/23            5              55,755
7/01              5/30            5              54,302
7/08              6/06            5              53,397
7/15              6/13            5              52.508
7/22              6/20            5              52,933
7/29              6/27            5              53,401
8/05              7/04            5              54,117
8/12              7/11            5              56,200

7/01              5/23            6              57,238
7/08              5/30            6              55,143
7/15              6/06            6              54,904
7/22              6/13            6              54,315
7/29              6/20            6              54.280
8/05              6/27            6              54,514
8/12              7/04            6              55,737

7/08              5/23            7              58,141
7/15              5/30            7              56,571
7/22              6/06            7              56,398
7/29              6/13            7              55,275
8/05              6/20            7              55.420
8/12              6/27            7              55,733

7/15              5/23            8              59,400
7/22              5/30            8              57,962
7/29              6/06            8              57,050
8/05              6/13            8              56.349
8/12              6/20            8              56,180

7/22              5/23            9              60,330
7/29              5/30            9              58,334
8/05              6/06            9              57.695
8/12              6/13            9              56,886

7/29              5/23           10              60,641
8/05              5/30           10              58.803
8/12              6/06           10              57,985

8/05              5/23           11              60,881
8/12              5/30           11              58,966

8/12              5/23           12              61,027
   8990. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 12, 2020 at 10:00 AM (#5969218)
One thing to note is that the percentage of cases that die without hospitalization has come down quite a bit from the early months. That makes me think that Florida was identifying a much higher proportion of cases in June/July than they were earlier, and/or that more people who wouldn't have gotten hospital care before are getting it. The latter in itself would indicate that care has improved -- more people who would have died outside of hospitals are at least getting hospital care.
Or alternatively, they just aren't calling these COVID deaths as readily any more, though they are still showing up as excess deaths.

Excess deaths not identified as COVID deaths were supposed to come down as we got better at identifying COVID cases. They have not come down, and in fact are higher than ever (except for very early on in March and the first week of April maybe.) This tells me that the current states are either 1) less likely to try to identify deaths with COVID after the fact, or 2) are classifying COVID cases as non-COVID deaths if there is another cause they think is more likely. We know NY City was very inclusive about calling something a COVID death, and their excess deaths are only 15% higher than their COVID deaths. The states where the outbreaks are now appear to have a mich higher proportion of excess deaths not identified as COVID.
   8991. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 12, 2020 at 10:06 AM (#5969222)

Suppose you were the Covid Czar of your state. Would you use 5% as a threshold? Something else?

I might use that a threshold for partial reopening. I'd want to see it lower before full reopening, but the right level probably depends on a bunch of factors (how much testing are we doing, are cases trending downward, are we contact tracing cases, etc.).

   8992. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 12, 2020 at 10:08 AM (#5969223)
The states where the outbreaks are now appear to have a mich higher proportion of excess deaths not identified as COVID.
can't hide the bodies.
   8993. Random Transaction Generator Posted: August 12, 2020 at 10:11 AM (#5969226)
I agree with my fellow Ontarians. I was very much against Doug Ford and his government, and I thought that his plans to gut the health care and educational system was infuriating. His stance on the environment is terrible.

That said, I have nothing but praise for him and the government with how he's handled things so far during the pandemic. The obvious misstep at the beginning ("Go and enjoy your March break vacation plans") was quickly reversed, and he's been as close to model leader as you can be during this situation. He's been tough when required, and he's worked well with the federal government when that was needed, too.

The whole school thing is an issue that I don't think has a correct answer at this point in Ontario. If there were still outbreaks and high numbers (like in the southern US), I would be vehemently against going back to school in September. However, the numbers in Ontario (and in my county especially) are low enough that the danger may be sufficiently mitigated. A 7-day rolling average of 5.5 cases per million people in Ontario, and just 33 yesterday. There are only 14 active cases in my county (~500,000 people). Assuming this trend continues, I won't feel so worried about my daughter (and my wife, a teacher) going back to school (with the mask/shield/washing protocols in place) in 3 weeks.

If there is a flare up, then pull the plug and wait for it to get under control again.

When this is all said and done, I'll have no problem going back to hating Doug Ford and his conservative/populist government for their other policies.
   8994. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 12, 2020 at 10:17 AM (#5969229)

Or alternatively, they just aren't calling these COVID deaths as readily any more, though they are still showing up as excess deaths.

That's a possibility as well. Good point.

How have excess deaths as a percentage of reported COVID deaths tracked over time? I know you said that they are now higher than ever, but was there a period when that percentage declined before it began to rise again?

I know you've linked to it in the past, but can you provide a link to wherever you're getting the data in #8989? Also, have you tracked the data prior to 5/23 or did you only start there?
   8995. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 12, 2020 at 10:36 AM (#5969235)
I know you've linked to it in the past, but can you provide a link to wherever you're getting the data in #8989? Also, have you tracked the data prior to 5/23 or did you only start there?
All of this particular data is from the CDC daily update for provisional deaths. You can get past days by going to CDC stacks, though some dates are annoyingly missing. These reports go back to around April 10, and each report starting the week ending 2/1, so you can pretty much reproduce the chart for the whole coronavirus period if you are so inclined. I started 5/23 to show that excess deaths had started to plateau at that point, though it turned out they were still declining a bit at least until mid June.

Excess deaths as a percentage of reported deaths is harder to calculate, but the simplest way is probably to take the CDC's excess death numbers from here, noting that recent weeks (especially the last 2 or 3 they have listeed) are even more undercounted than the CDC indicates, and then compare to the COVID counts the CDC has for those weeks using the COVID death data from the provisional death table, noting again that recent weeks will have undercounted COVID deaths.

Regardless of how you do it, you will see that the undecount was very high in March, came down throughout April, and was at its lowest in May (early, mid, or even late May, depending on your baseline). It then rose more or less steadily throughout June. It's pretty hard to say yet for July, but seems to be at least as high as June.
   8996. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 12, 2020 at 11:57 AM (#5969255)
Thanks Auntbea.
   8997. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 12, 2020 at 12:28 PM (#5969257)
More genius from Florida.

Mind you, this esteemed law enforcement officer isn't just not enforcing mask orders. He's outright banning them marks of the beast.

The excuse is anti-police sentiment, or something.


The excuse is I'm white and so is Jesus, therefore laws do not apply to me.
   8998. Lassus Posted: August 12, 2020 at 12:35 PM (#5969260)
I can't help but wonder

We are aware you can't.
   8999. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 12, 2020 at 12:42 PM (#5969261)
FL reported +212 today, 1,147 for the past week. The latter is below what I had expected for this week, which is a positive sign. Cases and positive test rate are back up today, which is less good. Will keep watching the numbers, although I suspect it will take another week or two to really know what’s going on.

Based on the latest data, actual deaths peaked on July 16 at 172 (7-day peak of 1,114 ending July 21), right around the time that reported cases peaked. They’re still adding to that, however (that same weekly peak was 1,077 as of yesterday), so it was certainly higher than that and probably a bit later. If not that much higher/later than reported deaths should probably be starting to decline rather than continuing to increase like I had expected.

————————

I do wonder whether people like that FL sheriff think about these things for more than a minute before doing them. If you have a security / identification concern, ask people to lift their masks briefly before they come in so that you can identify them, then allow them to wear the masks afterwards. Maybe masks don’t do anything, but they really can’t hurt. Why would you want to prevent people from wearing them except to make a dumb political point?
   9000. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 12, 2020 at 01:12 PM (#5969268)
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