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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 9769 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   9001. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 12, 2020 at 01:13 PM (#5969269)
Arizona logged 148 deaths today, second highest one-day total.
   9002. puck Posted: August 12, 2020 at 01:14 PM (#5969270)

The excuse is I'm white and so is Jesus, therefore laws do not apply to me.


Wasn't Jesus a swarthy, long haired, sandal-wearing, communist, furriner-loving, anti-temple hippie who consorted with various unsundry types like prostitutes, tax collectors and yankee fans?

Edited to add non xenophobe.
   9003. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 12, 2020 at 01:30 PM (#5969275)
Apparently puck is not a Texan; I'll pray for you.
   9004. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 12, 2020 at 01:45 PM (#5969279)
Pat Rapper's Delight can attend a game at one of the Metroplex's many fine stadia.

Metroplex? The soccer stadium is yet one of Frisco's many many oh so many fine stadia. I'm dying at the PR-speak from their marketing drone: "We polled our fans and more than half of [900] said that they would feel comfortable attending magic Toyota Stadium. They indicated that what they missed more than anything was that sense of community, that camaraderie, that soccer experience."

For a city that prides itself on branding itself as "Sports City USA," football games between any two of their high schools draw maybe 2000 in football-crazy Texas to the excruciatingly overbuilt -- for high school football -- soccer stadium and JerryDome II. Small crowds at the soccer stadium are like watching a football game in a mausoleum, and I imagine it'll be not much better for soccer. As a point of reference, our neighbor to the southeast is Allen, TX, home of a $60M dedicated HS FB stadium that seats 18K and is sold out for every game with a waitlist for season tickets, and not just because Kyler Murray played his high school ball there.
   9005. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 12, 2020 at 02:00 PM (#5969281)
Apoorva Mandavilli: One of my colleagues and dear friends, Roxanne Khamsi, actually first broke the story in Wired. She wrote about how among aerosol scientists, there was a pretty clear sense that this virus is, in fact, airborne, but there was a lot of resistance to the idea. So she dug a lot more into the historic studies that show how this has been true for the flu and other viruses.

Q: For a long time, WHO really was against people wearing masks. Also for a long time, it had a real reticence to talk about asymptomatic spread. So when you look at that, I wonder if you think it’s a WHO problem or more of a scientific problem.

A: It’s a little bit of both. It’s the kind of scientific expertise that WHO specializes in: certain kinds of scientists who are cautious and slow to move. I think, in this pandemic, that has not served them well. I don’t want to take away from all the great work they have done, but you’re right that they were a little hard to understand on the masks issue and on asymptomatic transmission.
...
There were people who thought, if you tell people to both wear a mask and wash your hands, they won’t be able to prioritize both

One of the only examples I’ve seen of that kind of thinking came from Seattle, where they did a modeling study and estimated that their activity in the community—shopping, going to church, all of those things—would need to be at about 70 percent of the pre-pandemic levels in order to do other things. This idea of a risk budget, if you will, where you take X amount of money or risk in this case from one pile and put it into the other. So if schools have this much percent, we should be bringing that down.
   9006. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: August 12, 2020 at 02:26 PM (#5969283)
After yesterday's announcement that Russia supposedly has a vaccine, a powerful intellect on my Facebook feed wrote, "I hope it doesn't get released before the election". When someone pointed out the election was still three months away and a vaccine could save thousands of lives, they responded, "That idiot [Trump] has already cost millions of lives! A few thousand more would be worth it if it gets him out of the White House!"

Uh-huh.

Then again, the Big XII is going ahead with football this fall (so are the SEC and ACC, apparently), so there's plenty of idiocy on both sides.
   9007. Lassus Posted: August 12, 2020 at 02:38 PM (#5969285)
It is cute that your "both sides" includes three massive football conferences on one side and one anonymous Facebook moron on the other side.
   9008. Greg Pope Posted: August 12, 2020 at 03:34 PM (#5969297)
After yesterday's announcement that Russia supposedly has a vaccine, a powerful intellect on my Facebook feed wrote, "I hope it doesn't get released before the election". When someone pointed out the election was still three months away and a vaccine could save thousands of lives, they responded, "That idiot [Trump] has already cost millions of lives! A few thousand more would be worth it if it gets him out of the White House!"

That's crazy. I'm vehemently anti-Trump but I hope we get a vaccine as soon as possible. As long as it's safe and effective. I would also be very happy if they come up with a treatment, even if it's hydroxychloroquine.

I am concerned the the administration will announce a vaccine before it's determined to be safe, but that's a different thing.
   9009. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 12, 2020 at 03:46 PM (#5969300)
I am concerned the the administration will announce a vaccine before it's determined to be safe, but that's a different thing.
and what if it's safe, but also ineffective?

or what if it's safe and effective, but it won't be ready to distribute nationwide until next march?


if whatever announcement winds up just being a propaganda tool, the people responsible ought to be crushed by an incoming democratic administration. revoke their licenses, sic the IRS on them, refer whatever gets dug up to the FBI. i've had enough of this emailboating bullshit. chop em up and feed em to the poor.
   9010. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 12, 2020 at 04:32 PM (#5969304)
“So shower heads—you take a shower, the water doesn’t come out,” he said in a speech last month. “So what do you do? You just stand there longer or you take a shower longer? Because my hair—I don’t know about you, but it has to be perfect.”

is this quote from:

A: paris hilton
B: perez hilton
C: ivanka trump
D: alex rodriguez
E: tomb rady
   9011. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 12, 2020 at 04:48 PM (#5969305)
Keith Pompey @PompeyOnSixers
NBA announces zero positive COVID-19 tests for fourth straight week inquirer.com/sixers/nba-pla… via @phillyinquirer
   9012. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 12, 2020 at 05:43 PM (#5969322)
After yesterday's announcement that Russia supposedly has a vaccine, a powerful intellect on my Facebook feed wrote, "I hope it doesn't get released before the election". When someone pointed out the election was still three months away and a vaccine could save thousands of lives, they responded, "That idiot [Trump] has already cost millions of lives! A few thousand more would be worth it if it gets him out of the White House!"


isn't this from one of the pearl-clutchers about "politicizing the thread"? But sure, random FB should be taken as a legitimate characterization of ... wait, of what exactly?


attending magic Toyota Stadium.

read enough university promotional material, it's water off a duck's back. Quack.
   9013. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 12, 2020 at 05:48 PM (#5969323)
a powerful intellect on my Facebook feed
who the #### talks like this?
   9014. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 12, 2020 at 05:48 PM (#5969324)
I do wonder whether people like that FL sheriff think about these things for more than a minute before doing them. If you have a security / identification concern, ask people to lift their masks briefly before they come in so that you can identify them, then allow them to wear the masks afterwards. Maybe masks don’t do anything, but they really can’t hurt.

Does anything suggest that masks don't help? Or was that a preemptive concession?

PSA: However, the neck gaiters that I've seen MLB players using on the field are not recommended; it may instead help spread COVID.
   9015. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 12, 2020 at 05:49 PM (#5969325)
who the #### talks like this?

weak intellects. Next?
   9016. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 12, 2020 at 05:53 PM (#5969326)
PSA: However, the neck gaiters that I've seen MLB players using on the field are not recommended; it may instead help spread COVID.
if that's the study i think it is, it's not at all conclusive.

(i think) the purpose of the study was not to gauge the overall effectiveness of various interventions, it was to establish a protocol that could be used later for that purpose.
   9017. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 12, 2020 at 06:02 PM (#5969328)
Then again, the Big XII is going ahead with football this fall (so are the SEC and ACC, apparently), so there's plenty of idiocy on both sides.
Yep. Three major college conferences going ahead with football in front of hundreds of thousands of fans on one side, and one random comment from your Facebook feed on the other side. Both sides.
   9018. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 12, 2020 at 06:10 PM (#5969330)
Nearly three dozen current and former members of a federal health advisory committee — including some appointed or reappointed by Health Secretary Alex M. Azar — are warning that the Trump administration’s new coronavirus database is placing an undue burden on hospitals and will have “serious consequences on data integrity.”
The advisers, all current or former members of the Healthcare Infection Control Practices Advisory Committee, issued their warning in a previously unpublished letter obtained by Sheryl Gay Stolberg, a Washington correspondent for The New York Times.

Can't claim no one saw it coming.
   9019. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 12, 2020 at 06:12 PM (#5969331)
Does anything suggest that masks don't help? Or was that a preemptive concession?

Pre-emptive concession, I guess. Just trying to follow his "logic".

PSA: However, the neck gaiters that I've seen MLB players using on the field are not recommended; it may instead help spread COVID.

Yeah, I have read a number of concerns about that "study", or at least how it's been interpreted in the media. I also don't know why they described that one as a "neck fleece" when it wasn't made out of fleece, but rather a "polyester spandex material" according to this article in the WaPo. I would assume that the specific material used is more important than the fact that it was a neck gaiter.
   9020. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 12, 2020 at 06:38 PM (#5969333)
"In the end, I think we all have to do what's best for our individual conferences," [The Big-12's] Bowlsby said. "We're not all similarly situated. In the case of the Pac-12, they've got a really tough situation in Southern California, two of their flagship schools there, and San Francisco's been a hot spot off and on. Each league has to make its own decisions.


Yeah, California. Not Arizona, or even Texas, Colorado, or Iowa, which all have higher death rates than California. He was fine talking about his scientists, but then he got into what he's learned. There's a bit of that going around.
   9021. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 12, 2020 at 06:44 PM (#5969334)
I also don't know why they described that one as a "neck fleece"

that's why i went with gaiter, not that i know what a gaiter is, either.
   9022. Hysterical & Useless Posted: August 12, 2020 at 07:55 PM (#5969344)
Why would you want to prevent people from wearing them except to make a dumb political point?

Those dumb political points won't make themselves, ya know.
   9023. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 12, 2020 at 08:22 PM (#5969348)
I would assume that the specific material used is more important than the fact that it was a neck gaiter.

Ok, I'm a little more fashion forward now. Yeah, they can be wool or whatever, but not in summer.
The problem is that, yes, spandex lets too much through.
   9024. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 12, 2020 at 09:44 PM (#5969355)
So apparently when the dust had settled yesterday, Texas went over 200 deaths yesterday with 220 per Worldometer, followed by 225 today without a report from Hidalgo County as of yet. Beyond that, California had its 3rd highest two-day total today, Arizona logged 148, Georgia 105. Mississippi's COVID death rate has now caught the UK's, which is no small or admirable feat. Louisiana seems like it may cross 1000 per million deaths by Labor Day.

Edit: After I posted, Hidalgo reported, so TX logged 257, which is probably a Worldometer record for days when it was not also logging the state's backlog.
Sigh.

News from South Texas:

EDINBURG– The Hidalgo County Commissioners Court approved several measures Tuesday to supplement staffing needs by the Hidalgo County Health and Human Services Department in its fight against the COVID-19 virus. Eddie Olivarez, who heads the Health Department, expressed gratitude for the court’s action, but warned that this is likely to result in a short-term increase in the number of reported positive cases.“This expected jump in the number of reported cases only means that, with the help of Commissioners Court, our department will become more efficient at reporting new cases. It does not mean that the rate of infection is suddenly growing,” Olivarez said.
Olivarez explained that local, state and federal protocol requires his staff to follow several specific steps when a positive case of the pandemic is reported to them. This includes inputting information about the patient; securing legal isolation orders for the patient; and fulfilling all state and federal protocol for positive cases.
“Multiply this process by hundreds of new cases each day and there is physically not enough time each day to input all of these cases,” Olivarez explained. “This results in a backlog of cases that need input into our system and, ultimately, reported publicly.”
To meet that growing backlog, the Health department has secured help from other county departments as well as gotten permission to hire additional temporary staff. But after five months of battling the pandemic, the structure to support the staff is reaching its limits.


   9025. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 12, 2020 at 10:02 PM (#5969358)
Picture I just got from a friend vacationing on the Georgia coast. Remember that big car carrier that tipped over last September with 4,000 Hyundais on board? It's still there. pic.twitter.com/RUjHRi1nLE

— Mark Schirmer (@MarkSchirmer1) August 12, 2020
   9026. puck Posted: August 12, 2020 at 11:34 PM (#5969364)
And Pat Rapper's Delight can attend a game at one of the Metroplex's many fine stadia.


Well that is some bullshit. (The game, not Pat Rapper.) FC Dallas played there tonight. Fans were supposedly required to sign a waiver they would not sue if they contracted Covid19.
   9027. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 13, 2020 at 12:48 AM (#5969369)
Well that is some bullshit. (The game, not Pat Rapper.) FC Dallas played there tonight. Fans were supposedly required to sign a waiver they would not sue if they contracted Covid19.

Preview of the College Football season.
   9028. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 13, 2020 at 01:06 AM (#5969370)
Harris County path to school reopening
The recommendations for phased-in school reopening are based on the county threat level system indicators. COVID-19 metrics for Level 1 include that the county records more than 400 new COVID-19 cases per day, remains above a 5 percent test positivity rate or continues to have more than 15 percent of hospital beds filled with COVID-19 patients, all across a two-week period, according to the roadmap posted to the ReadyHarris website. All the indicators must be met for the threat level to change, Hidalgo said.
...
School districts can start to reopen for in-person instruction once conditions improve. Once metrics are met and the county threat level moves to Level 2 or Code Orange, schools are recommended to reopen at 25 percent capacity or 500 students; once the threat level moves to Level 3 or Code Yellow, schools may progress to reopening with 50 percent capacity or 1,000 students, and so forth.

Fine so far, but
Gov. Greg Abbott has said local officials lack authority to shut down campuses to curb COVID-19 infections, leaving school districts to navigate their own paths toward the new school year. In accordance with guidance from the Texas Education Agency that was later backed by Abbott, school districts can delay reopening for in-person instruction for the first eight weeks of the year, which is what most Houston-area districts have done. School districts that close down for more than five days due to an outbreak could risk losing state funding, though.

about which
Hidalgo said the county's roadmap is meant to offer superintendents, families and school employees clear guidance that is designed to put schools back on track for a sustained reopening. She added the roadmap was created with the help of local and public health leaders and based on the research of local, state, national and international school reopening models.

or, "Sure; just don't say we didn't warn you."
   9029. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: August 13, 2020 at 05:27 AM (#5969372)
Testing of 100,000 people in England between mid-June and mid-July suggests that around 6% of the population has antibodies to the virus. The data implies an asymptomatic rate of just over 32%, and the implied infection rate is several times higher in London than the North (where some local lockdowns have been implemented). Story here.
   9030. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 13, 2020 at 07:48 AM (#5969375)

Testing of 100,000 people in England between mid-June and mid-July suggests that around 6% of the population has antibodies to the virus. The data implies an asymptomatic rate of just over 32%, and the implied infection rate is several times higher in London than the North (where some local lockdowns have been implemented). Story here.

Interesting, thanks. I wonder whether everyone who had been infected would still have antibodies at that point.

They estimate an 0.9% IFR outside of care homes (I guess they didn't test people in care homes).

England is also reducing its estimate of COVID deaths. Not sure whether this would affect the IFR but probably not materially:

A review of how deaths from coronavirus are counted in England has reduced the UK death toll by more than 5,000, to 41,329, the government has announced.

The recalculation is based on a new definition of who has died from Covid.

Previously, people in England who died at any point following a positive test, regardless of cause, were counted in the figures.

But there will now be a cut-off of 28 days, providing a more accurate picture of the epidemic.

This brings England's measure in line with the other UK nations.

New counting method
The new methodology for counting deaths means the total number of people in the UK who have died from Covid-19 comes down from 46,706 to 41,329 - a reduction of 12%.

And figures for deaths in England for the most recent week of data - 18 to 24 July - will drop by 75%, from 442 to 111.

   9031. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 13, 2020 at 07:58 AM (#5969376)
I ran my weekly update of the Florida numbers. One positive thing I would note is that cases reported over the past two weeks don't seem to have a higher CFR so far than cases from June/July at the equivalent point in the reporting timeframe. Last week it looked higher but after two weeks the CFRs have largely fallen in line. I still find this a bit puzzling given that we know testing was artificially constrained during Tropical Storm Isaias, but it would be very positive to learn that the overall case count really did decline ~17% per week over the past two weeks. I still think the numbers will increase for another week or so from here, but not as much as before.

There are alternative explanations, of course. The reporting of deaths may have also been slowed down by the storm and whatever else is delaying the reporting of tests. That would also help explain why the past week's fatality total was about 150-200 below my estimate. I don't think that's what's happening based on what's happening with the cases from other weeks, but you never know. It's also certain that fatality reporting isn't as smooth as I've modeled it. Maybe they just had a couple of slow days and are going to catch up shortly. We'll eventually find out.
   9032. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 13, 2020 at 08:52 AM (#5969383)
double post.
   9033. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 13, 2020 at 08:56 AM (#5969384)
Typical. Removing deaths from the COVID rolls is entirely political. For whatever dumb reason, the reported deaths still hold way more weight in people's conception of how bad the problem is than they should, and governments can easily downplay the problem just by not reporting deaths. We're seeing this all over the world and all over this country.

It's a double win, too, because if the deaths aren't attributable to the virus, they must be from the lockdown. So let's all get back to school and work.

The UK's excess deaths are already a higher percentage than almost anywhere else in western europe, so it's not particularly convincing that they should be taking more COVID deaths off the rolls, though it is consistent with what they have been doing so far. Expect it not to get better going forward.
   9034. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: August 13, 2020 at 09:06 AM (#5969386)
Typical. Removing deaths from the COVID rolls is entirely political. For whatever dumb reason, the reported deaths still hold way more weight in people's conception of how bad the problem is than they should, and governments can easily downplay the problem just by not reporting deaths. We're seeing this all over the world and all over this country.


It's worth noting that in this case, the methodology for England is being moved in line with the methodology that already existed for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. It was considered a significant ####-up that any death after a positive Covid-19 test was considered a Covid-19 death, including car accidents (I don't know if there actually were any in that category).

The best measure - apart from excess deaths - in the UK is probably the ONS numbers, which count all deaths for which Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. That number remains in the 55-60k range for the UK, I think. Given that the UK is rather vulnerable to a winter resurgence for a number of reasons, re-working the methodology now might also be a way to try cushion the perception of a possible/likely future second wave.

EDIT: My mistake, around 51k up to the end of July for the ONS numbers. Still very poor, and I have my theories as to why.
   9035. Tony S Posted: August 13, 2020 at 09:06 AM (#5969387)
North Paulding is up to 35 cases.

This is just ONE school that's being followed closely because of the hallway-picture kerfuffle. This scenario is likely being repeated everywhere schools have physically opened.

Have a good semester.
   9036. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: August 13, 2020 at 09:27 AM (#5969388)
According to CDC projections, Michigan's experiencing about 300 excess deaths/week throughout late June and July, while only reporting about 70 COVID deaths a week at that time, a large percentage difference.

Also according to CDC projections, Pennsylvania's experiencing like 500-1,000 excess deaths/week throughout late June and July, and only reporting about 100 COVID deaths a week at that time.

Much larger rate of difference than those states had before. I don't have any grand theory of what's happening there, or any theory, really. I'm sure some under-counting still happens but I'm not sure how it would get so much worse.
   9037. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: August 13, 2020 at 09:28 AM (#5969389)
random FB should be taken as a legitimate characterization of ... wait, of what exactly?

Because randos on the "good side" are just isolated nuts, whilst randos on the "bad side" are proof positive of the way every last one of 'em really think, those racists.

Beyond that, California had its 3rd highest two-day total today, Arizona logged 148, Georgia 105. Mississippi's COVID death rate has now caught the UK's, which is no small or admirable feat. Louisiana seems like it may cross 1000 per million deaths by Labor Day.

No cheering in the press box, please.
   9038. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 13, 2020 at 09:31 AM (#5969390)

It's worth noting that in this case, the methodology for England is being moved in line with the methodology that already existed for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. It was considered a significant ####-up that any death after a positive Covid-19 test was considered a Covid-19 death, including car accidents (I don't know if there actually were any in that category).

The best measure - apart from excess deaths - in the UK is probably the ONS numbers, which count all deaths for which Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. That number remains in the 55-60k range for the UK, I think. Given that the UK is rather vulnerable to a winter resurgence for a number of reasons, re-working the methodology now might also be a way to try cushion the perception of a possible/likely future second wave.
All fair. But plenty of people have died of coronavirus more than 28 days after testing positive, including Herman Cain, so this artificial cutoff just seems designed to reduce numbers. If they really want to get a more accurate count there are much better ways to do it, but almost all of these other ways will increase the numbers, not reduce them.
   9039. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 13, 2020 at 09:34 AM (#5969391)
All fair. But plenty of people have died of coronavirus more than 28 days after testing positive, including Herman Cain, so this artificial cutoff just seems designed to reduce numbers. If they really want to get a more accurate count there are much better ways to do it, but almost all of these other ways will increase the numbers, not reduce them.
it's not the fall that kills you; it's the landing.
   9040. Tony S Posted: August 13, 2020 at 09:51 AM (#5969393)
I saw a whacked-out post in my Facebook feed showing a video featuring some doctor with some outlandish claims about "demon sperm" and how some gynecological issues are caused by "evil deposits from the spirit husband". She also claimed to cure COVID with hydroxychloroquine and that masks weren't necessary. But luckily, this was just some isolated random internet nut spouting off loony crap, and no one with any authority or influence picked up on this and spread it around as if it had any merit or credibility. And hardly anybody watched that video anyway, much less shared it.
   9041. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: August 13, 2020 at 09:54 AM (#5969394)
Well that is some bullshit. (The game, not Pat Rapper.)

IDK. That remains constantly up for debate.


FC Dallas played there tonight. Fans were supposedly required to sign a waiver they would not sue if they contracted Covid19.

They were going to allow around 5000, but the number I'm seeing is 2900 actually showed up for the game, enough for players to hear fans not saying "Booo-urns" when players from both teams knelt for the anthem.
   9042. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 13, 2020 at 10:41 AM (#5969397)
“I’ll tell you guys the same way I told my players,” Bell said, via The Athletic. “You know, my dad passed away in 2008; my biological mom OD’d in 2012. And to be honest with you, this is probably a tougher day than both of those days.”

   9043. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 13, 2020 at 10:42 AM (#5969398)
North Paulding is up to 35 cases.

This is just ONE school that's being followed closely because of the hallway-picture kerfuffle. This scenario is likely being repeated everywhere schools have physically opened.

Have a good semester.


35 people now testing positive out of 2,500 or is 1.4%. Do we know if they required students to be tested before returning to school? Because if they didn't, then in a county where 0.25% of the population has tested positive in the past two weeks, 1.4% seems well within the realm of expectation. Not trying to minimize it but it doesn't necessarily mean that the students contracted/spread it within the school.

I guess my other point is just that any school that opens in Georgia right now should have expected to have a non-trivial number of people walking around with COVID when they reopened. If 35 people testing positive means you're going to move to a hybrid learning model (as North Paulding has), you probably should have been doing that all along.
   9044. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 13, 2020 at 10:52 AM (#5969399)
If 35 people testing positive means you're going to move to a hybrid learning model (as North Paulding has), you probably should have been doing that all along.
yes. this is correct.
   9045. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 13, 2020 at 11:05 AM (#5969402)
Youyang Gu's methodolgy is a mess. The Florida rate that came out to 0.15% implied IFR was based on a whopping 110,000 cases per day (7-day average) at the peak (10x multiplier for all of Florida). Strangely on his site he now claims the maximum on any day was 72,000, which is quite a bit less, meaning he probably wouldn't have Florida as less than about 0.25% now. Put excess deaths in there, and you are back up at 0.35% to 0.4%. (A 10x multiplier for Florida must have meant something like 12x for Miami-Dade, which would have put it at close to 60% now (40% to 85% confidence interval). With his revisions, maybe Miami-Dade could be at 35% (20% to 55% confidence interval.)

Another weird one is that he claims the average time between infection and reported date of infection is 2 weeks, but we know for Florida the average time difference between actual date of death and reported date of death is at least 10 days or so. That leaves no time (ok, 4 days) between when you first get reported as infected and actual date of death. Impossibly low.

The biggest problem, of course, is that the multipliers appear to be based on antibody studies performed for the original peak in March/April, when testing was 1/4 or less what it is over the last month or two, and was performed differently (including now mixing in antibody tests) so there's no reason to think the same relationships hold. Also, a lot of the antibody surveys were done on populations that had very low overall infection rates, meaning their accuracy was low.

So what does he say if you point to more recent antibody surveys that don't back up huge 20-50% infection rates in the most affected states and counties? Without a hint of irony, that antibody surveys are unreliable.
   9046. RJ in TO Posted: August 13, 2020 at 11:07 AM (#5969403)
35 people now testing positive out of 2,500 or is 1.4%. Do we know if they required students to be tested before returning to school? Because if they didn't, then in a county where 0.25% of the population has tested positive in the past two weeks, 1.4% seems well within the realm of expectation. Not trying to minimize it but it doesn't necessarily mean that the students contracted/spread it within the school.
If 1.4% of people testing positive is reasonably within the realm of expectation, and you're going to stuff all those people into a fairly confined space without taking any notable precautions, you're quickly going to have a lot more than 1.4% testing positive.

I guess my other point is just that any school that opens in Georgia right now should have expected to have a non-trivial number of people walking around with COVID when they reopened. If 35 people testing positive means you're going to move to a hybrid learning model (as North Paulding has), you probably should have been doing that all along.
Duh.
   9047. pikepredator Posted: August 13, 2020 at 11:08 AM (#5969404)
no one with any authority or influence picked up on this and spread it around as if it had any merit or credibility. And hardly anybody watched that video anyway, much less shared it.


Reminds of the Biden-Sanders elbow-bump way back on Mar 15th, in front of an empty room. Ha! They sure look foolish now for publicly modeling social distancing.

NBA is doing well. As they should.

Re: MLB I appreciate Plutko's candor from the Indians as well. A little bit of peer pressure to do the right thing goes a long way. At least, I hope it both encourages players to follow the rules and opens the door for other players to speak out when their teammates don't keep their end of the agreement.
   9048. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 13, 2020 at 11:12 AM (#5969405)
A few thoughts on England:

- I don't think any hard-and-fast cutoff date makes sense
- Some people really do die more than 28 days after diagnosis, as noted above. So if you're going to have a cutoff, that seems too short.
- Counting everyone who dies after a COVID diagnosis, you might get a more accurate total count, but you might also misattribute when those deaths happened. i.e. it doesn't change the fact that you undercounted early on, but it might lead you to believe you have more cases in the community right now than you actually do
- At least several US states that I follow have a more robust death certificate review and reconciliation process rather than just setting a cutoff date. This might result in more of a delay in reporting of deaths, but ultimately a more accurate one. (I'd want to see how those compare to excess deaths when all is said and done. Probably too early to tell right now.)
- I think you also want the media and general public to have faith in your statistics. There's a lot of conspiracy theories about hospitals and states inflating death counts for whatever reason. But having a policy that anyone who dies after a COVID diagnosis is a "COVID death" I think adds fuel to that fire. It might be better to have a slightly lower provisional number that people believe, than a higher one that people don't believe. Over the longer term, you can get a more accurate picture through the reconciliation process mentioned above.
   9049. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 13, 2020 at 11:15 AM (#5969406)

If 1.4% of people testing positive is reasonably within the realm of expectation, and you're going to stuff all those people into a fairly confined space without taking any notable precautions, you're quickly going to have a lot more than 1.4% testing positive.

Perhaps. It depends on how effectively kids transmit the virus.
   9050. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 13, 2020 at 11:42 AM (#5969407)
It's worth noting that in this case, the methodology for England is being moved in line with the methodology that already existed for Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. It was considered a significant ####-up that any death after a positive Covid-19 test was considered a Covid-19 death, including car accidents (I don't know if there actually were any in that category).
I'm having a real hard time imagining the car accidents and others of that sort. On the larger issue, 28 days is very short and also leaves no room for COVID-induced syndromes. That the new count is in line with other UK countries does not make it correct.

It might be better to have a slightly lower provisional number that people believe, than a higher one that people don't believe.
Although that assumes reasonable arguments against particular modes of calculation, which is very little of what's going on in this country, Dave, and it doesn't help matters to treat ideologues and conspiracy theorists as reasonable people.

“I’ll tell you guys the same way I told my players,” Bell said, via The Athletic. “You know, my dad passed away in 2008; my biological mom OD’d in 2012. And to be honest with you, this is probably a tougher day than both of those days.”
Go the Big-12/SEC route: football team doesn't go to classes, players and coaches tested 3x week, students get occasional tests from what's left over and faculty ... pffft. Useful reminder of the business those universities are in.
   9051. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 13, 2020 at 12:13 PM (#5969411)
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) on Wednesday compared the difficulties of reopening public schools for the 2020-21 academic year during the coronavirus pandemic with obstacles faced by the U.S. Navy SEAL team that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011.
Victims to be buried at sea?
   9052. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 13, 2020 at 12:28 PM (#5969412)
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) on Wednesday compared the difficulties of reopening public schools for the 2020-21 academic year during the coronavirus pandemic with obstacles faced by the U.S. Navy SEAL team that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011.
if governator desantos was 1/10th the leader that barack obama was (is, i guess), this might be an apt comparison.
   9053. Bret Sabermatrician Posted: August 13, 2020 at 12:34 PM (#5969414)
9033. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 13, 2020 at 08:56 AM (#5969384)
Typical. Removing deaths from the COVID rolls is entirely political. For whatever dumb reason, the reported deaths still hold way more weight in people's conception of how bad the problem is than they should, and governments can easily downplay the problem just by not reporting deaths. We're seeing this all over the world and all over this country.

It's a double win, too, because if the deaths aren't attributable to the virus, they must be from the lockdown. So let's all get back to school and work.


My priest posted a similar article to the one about the lockdown causing a large percentage of deaths in the UK. He's been anti-lockdown since the start. It took most of what I had not to reply, since he controls my daughter's education for 1 more year. The study is BS. It presupposes people didn't go to the hospital because of the lockdown instead of there being a deadly virus making the rounds. Its like saying I'm not eating onions because they're not selling them, while conveniently ignoring that they're not selling them because of the current salmonella outbreak.

Also, the local USL One (3rd tier) soccer team is allowing fans into games starting Saturday. Masks are required unless you have food or drinks. Alcohol is served. They say they have a "social distancing algorithm" for tickets, whatever that means. Up to 2,000 fans, although 2,000 would mean a pretty much full stadium, so I'm not sure they've really worked out their math.
   9054. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 13, 2020 at 12:57 PM (#5969416)

Although that assumes reasonable arguments against particular modes of calculation, which is very little of what's going on in this country, Dave, and it doesn't help matters to treat ideologues and conspiracy theorists as reasonable people.

You're never going to convince the ideologues and conspiracy theorists, but I think the goal is to inform the people who maybe don't follow this stuff 24 hours a day. If there's enough noise out there about the numbers, a lot of people will just tune out the whole thing rather than dig into the details. So if you put out a flawed metric, you at least need to have a good and pithy explanation of what it means and how it's supposed to be used. I feel like a lot of times scientists just throw these numbers and studies out there without thinking about how the public will interpret them.
   9055. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 13, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5969417)
I feel like a lot of times scientists just throw these numbers and studies out there without thinking about how the public will interpret them.
That's fair.
   9056. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 13, 2020 at 01:02 PM (#5969419)
You're never going to convince the ideologues and conspiracy theorists, but I think the goal is to inform the people who maybe don't follow this stuff 24 hours a day. If there's enough noise out there about the numbers, a lot of people will just tune out the whole thing rather than dig into the details. So if you put out a flawed metric, you at least need to have a good and pithy explanation of what it means and how it's supposed to be used. I feel like a lot of times scientists just throw these numbers and studies out there without thinking about how the public will interpret them.
the president of the united states is the largest source of noise in this pandemic. there's no possible way to combat that until president "maybe we should try freebasing chlorox" has been removed.

   9057. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 13, 2020 at 01:02 PM (#5969420)
double p'd
   9058. Mefisto Posted: August 13, 2020 at 01:06 PM (#5969421)
@9028: "Houston Chronicle reports *5,500* excess deaths in Texas BEYOND the official COVID death toll through July.

One hard-hit county isn't even bothering to test bodies because of the cost."
   9059. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 13, 2020 at 01:24 PM (#5969422)
The CDC has Texas at 15,000 excess deaths through the end of July, but that will go up due to insufficient CDC lag adjustment, certainly by at least 1,000-2,000 when all is said and done. (Easy to see this by looking at week to week CDC reports for Texas.) Texas is currently at 9300 deaths, and some of those must have been assigned a date of death in August, so the current CDC estimate is probably about 8,000 beyond what is currently reported, through July. There seems to be quite a backlog in Texas though, so maybe that number will go down.

In other words, that Houston Chronicle number is almost certainly too low right now, but might not end up being too low if Texas has a lot more back fill to do.
   9060. DCA Posted: August 13, 2020 at 01:27 PM (#5969423)
Perhaps. It depends on how effectively kids transmit the virus.

This is a high school. The students are, for most medical purposes, grown-ups. Not kids.

And even if not, there are plenty of adult staff members sharing the building with them.
   9061. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 13, 2020 at 01:28 PM (#5969424)
Reading the Daily Update from the Chronicle of Higher Ed today, it's a mix of two things:
1. Schools that announced in May that they'd be face to face (or hybrid) reversing course, and
2. Outbreaks from move-in parties.
Also: UCONN canceled its football season
   9062. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: August 13, 2020 at 01:38 PM (#5969427)
It depends on how effectively kids transmit the virus.

Outbreaks from move-in parties.
Seems like kids go out of their way to be quite effective in transmitting the virus.
   9063. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 13, 2020 at 02:02 PM (#5969439)
Update: It has been almost 24 hours since #Belarus fell largely offline after a series of worsening internet disruptions during Sunday's elections.

Real-time network data confirm the incident is ongoing, limiting freedom of expression and assembly

https://t.co/JcBhvhgVcR
pic.twitter.com/Siz33QIFqU

— NetBlocks.org (@netblocks) August 10, 2020
   9064. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 13, 2020 at 02:54 PM (#5969446)
This is a high school. The students are, for most medical purposes, grown-ups. Not kids.

I don't know if that's true. There was a South Korean study that indicated young children (<10) transmitted the disease about half as effectively as adults, while children above 10 transmitted it as effectively as adults. However, I believe they only looked at symptomatic children, so we don't know whether the findings apply to asymptomatic children. And children are more likely to be asymptomatic, so that's a relevant difference.

If students are really as effective spreaders as adults, we'll find out soon enough with all of the schools being reopened.

Outbreaks from move-in parties.
Seems like kids go out of their way to be quite effective in transmitting the virus.


Oh, I'm pretty sure college-aged "kids" can definitely transmit the virus as effectively as adults. Probably true of 17-18 year-olds too. Not sure as you go younger than that - I'm sure it's not a binary thing where suddenly kids hit a certain age and then they're spreaders. 16-year-olds probably less likely than 18 year-olds but more likely than 14-year-olds, etc.
   9065. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 13, 2020 at 03:08 PM (#5969449)
Oh, I'm pretty sure college-aged "kids" can definitely transmit the virus as effectively as adults. Probably true of 17-18 year-olds too. Not sure as you go younger than that - I'm sure it's not a binary thing where suddenly kids hit a certain age and then they're spreaders. 16-year-olds probably less likely than 18 year-olds but more likely than 14-year-olds, etc.
the difference might be something as simple as children under 10 being too short to transmit it effectively in passing to people who are taller than them.
   9066. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 13, 2020 at 05:41 PM (#5969477)

@9028: "Houston Chronicle reports *5,500* excess deaths in Texas BEYOND the official COVID death toll through July.

I can't access the article since I've used up my free allocation. What do they mean by "through July"? Do they mean that, as of July 31, Texas had reported 5,500 fewer deaths than are shown up to that point. Or do they mean that, as of today, Texas is reporting 5,500 fewer deaths up to July 31?

I noted the other day that if you look at the "deaths by date of death" that Texas reports, there was a very large backlog based on their own reported numbers. As of July 25 (when the backlog is currently shown to have peaked), they had reported 4,885 deaths but now we know that the actual toll was at least 7,692 as of that date. That puts the backlog at at least 2,807. It will probably still grow from there as they report additional COVID deaths from pre-July 25. And we will probably find out that the backlog actually peaked later than July 25. So, >50% of the 5,500 could just be deaths that hadn't been attributed to COVID *yet* but subsequently have been.

Unless they mean that even based on reporting as of today, Texas is understating deaths through July by 5,500. In which case that would be 5,500 on top of the numbers that have already been reported.

(And yes, AuntBea, I saw your post about the 15,000 number from the CDC. Obviously all of the above is small potatoes compared to that.)
   9067. bob gee Posted: August 13, 2020 at 06:15 PM (#5969483)
9066 here is the quote from the chron article: "Between the beginning of the local pandemic and the end of July, 95,000 deaths were reported in Texas, according to U.S. Centers for Disease Control data. Based on historical mortality records and predictive modeling, government epidemiologists would have expected to see about 82,500 deaths during that time.

The CDC attributed more than 7,100 deaths to COVID-19, but that leaves roughly 5,500 more than expected and with no identified tie to the pandemic. "
   9068. Srul Itza Posted: August 13, 2020 at 06:20 PM (#5969485)
355 new cases today in Hawaii, and a 10.5% positive result rate. The previous high was 231. 2 more fatalities, for a total of 40, but that number is going to go up very fast, I fear.


86 cases are from OCCC, the local jail (i.e., not the penitentiary). So in the last couple of days, the total cluster there is 116 -- 24 staff and 92 inmates. Another cluster of 20 cases at the Institute for Human Services -- a homeless shelter.

And again, all of this is happening with a supposed 14 day quarantine for out of state travelers, which has shut down tourism here, which is the economic driver for the State. I expect further restrictions to go back into effect fairly soon.


   9069. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 13, 2020 at 06:48 PM (#5969494)
9067:

The 95,000 is the actual deaths recorded by the CDC (not projected deaths) for the 5 months from March - July. There will be more added to this total because of lag.

The 82,500 is actually not the expected number (baseline) that would be seen for these 5 months. Rather, it is the actual expected number (91,000 or so) less the expected lag as applied to the baseline. Close to half of that lag is for the last week of July alone, where so far Texas had only recorded 2800 deaths. This method of calculating excess deaths--using actual deaths and putting a lag factor on the baseline--is the one that has been used by the Washington Post/Yale team that went around a couple months ago.

The 7100 I believe is from the actual assigned date of death for Texas deaths, as currently logged by the CDC.

So why is this way short for Texas the way I was calculating it? For 2 reasons: First, 12,500 is less than 15,000. I can't speak to the way the reducing the baseline method works, but it seems suspect when you have a very large number of deaths over the baseline, because even if the ratio to the baseline stays the same, the count will be lower since the baseline itself has been artificially reduced. Second, both ways (using actual deaths versus reduced baseline, or using adjusted deaths versus actual baseline) don't take into account the fact that the CDC has not adjusted enough for lag in any COVID week so far for the vast majority of states.

As an example of the second, going back 2 weeks, through half of July, the CDC estimated 10,700 excess deaths. Now, for those same weeks (through half of July), the estimate is 11,500. That's not even a very large adjustment--in some hotspot cases in some weeks it has been significantly larger.
   9070. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 13, 2020 at 07:06 PM (#5969499)
And 221 recorded deaths today in TX, still early in the reporting window, although including 32 deaths from Hidalgo cCounty reported yesterday after 8 Central. Daily entries (Worldometer): Houston - 34; Dallas and Tarrant 13 and 11; El Paso 20 (uncharacteristically high); Val Verde 23 (on top of 49 to date co certainly some back-filling).
the state dashboard entered 255 new deaths. Its Trend lines I can see frustrating the low-comprehension citizen. Cases appear to be logged as confirmations are received, this a fairly steady climb. Next to that is the fatality curve, which appears to represent only 128 deaths since 5 August.

   9071. bob gee Posted: August 13, 2020 at 07:07 PM (#5969502)
9069 AuntBea - Thank you for the further information.

   9072. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 13, 2020 at 07:39 PM (#5969510)
As an example of the problem with the "reduce the baseline" method when you have high weekly deaths like we do in Texas right now:

For the weeks ending 7/18 and 7/25, the CDC estimates close to 2400 excess deaths for Texas. the final numbers might well end up even higher, due to further lag, but let's use 2400 for the sake of argument. If we assume the same number for the final week of July (the last week for the report above) and we use the "reduce the baseline" method, we can barely reach 2400, because only 2800 deaths so far have been recorded by the CDC for Texas for that week (as of Wednesday, when the excess death report came out). To get to 2400, you'd have to reduce the baseline 90% of the way, from 4000 to 400 (i.e., 2800-400 = 2400). The baseline lag for 2 weeks ago is not close to 90% in prior years.

To get to 2400 expected deaths in Texas by adjusting reported deaths rather than baseline, you only have to increase the 2800 reported deaths by a factor of about 2.3 (or looked at it inversely, 55% reduction from expected deaths), a pretty normal adjustment for the COVID period.

edited to clean up mistakes.
   9073. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 13, 2020 at 07:59 PM (#5969514)

The New York Times @nytimes

The number of U.S. residents who have died since March is now more than 200,000 higher than it would be in a normal year. This suggests that the official death counts may be substantially underestimating the overall effects of the coronavirus.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1293769274675298305
   9074. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 13, 2020 at 08:22 PM (#5969518)
The CDC's current estimate through 3 weeks ago is 220,000, which means around 250,000 going up through today.
   9075. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 13, 2020 at 09:00 PM (#5969531)
The 204,000 number going around uses the CDC data slightly differently, but it's also effectively as of 3 weeks ago, so if you want to be very conservative you could say at least 225,000 as of today.
   9076. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 13, 2020 at 09:38 PM (#5969542)
The owners of a popular Friendswood bar have been arrested during an investigation after police say they allegedly overserved patrons, according to a release from the Friendswood Police Department.
Police say the Friends Pub located at 2407 W. Parkwood Avenue has been linked to several DWI arrests and a series of disturbances over recent weeks. Friendswood Police Chief Bob Wieners told KPRC about a third of the department's DWI arrests made in July have been linked to patrons at the pub.
The bar has stayed open in defiance of Gov. Greg Abbott's mandate to close down bars for the second time in an effort to stem the spread of the novel coronavirus. Under Abbott's order, bars and establishments that receive more than 51 percent of their gross receipts from the sale of alcoholic beverages must not operate at this time.
Because bars are more important than anything but football.
Especially them as cater to local shitkickers.
   9077. puck Posted: August 14, 2020 at 10:24 AM (#5969588)
Article on contract tracing. Some states make some data public.

Example from NJ:

he speed and completeness of contact tracing is key to its effectiveness. If 100% of new cases were reached within 24 hours of diagnosis, and 100% gave a complete list of close contacts, that could curb transmission dramatically.

But in reality, public health workers don't have that level of success. In New Jersey, these data show that public health workers reached only 44% of new cases within 24 hours, and nearly half of those reached refused to provide contacts.


This country really sucks at the pandemic game.
   9078. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: August 14, 2020 at 11:20 AM (#5969595)
The Guardian liveblog today had feedback from a couple of people asked to self-isolate after arriving back from European countries removed from the 'travel corridor' list. Apparently the process is: you get information at your point of arrival back into the UK, or maybe you don't, because not all the points are set up. You are requested (not instructed) to self-isolate and provide contact details. The contact will be in the form of a phone call asking if you're at home. You will probably want to answer 'Yes', regardless of where you are (the person in question was out). Congratulations! You've self-isolated successfully.
   9079. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 14, 2020 at 11:31 AM (#5969596)
FL +229 today. It sort of looks like they were aggressive with the reporting 2 weeks ago and maybe pulled forward some of the deaths they would have otherwise reported later. Then things dropped back down and are steadily increasing again. At some point in the next couple of weeks I’d think they’ll start to decrease if the decline in cases is real.

But that big reporting week a couple of weeks ago might have caused me to overestimate how high the peak was. Maybe it was “only” ~160-170 per day instead of ~200 per day.
   9080. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 14, 2020 at 12:16 PM (#5969602)
It appears the main way to present total tests, positive tests, and fraction positive is by, in each case, unique persons total (i.e., not by day). So for example, yesterday Florida had 89,000 tests (PCR + antigen), with 9500 positive. However, they only had 38,000 new persons tested, with 6200 new positives (16%).

Total persons tested and total persons positive is really important information, but it's not very good at giving a snapshot of the current situation. Lots of reasons why not--the most important is that more than half of the people tested have already been tested before, so even if they show up with a first time positive test, they won't show up in the denominator.

Florida also tracks number of first time positives out of total people tested in a day. Yesterday that number was 8%--and is still might be high if comparing to NY in March/April because it includes anitgen results.

Bottom line is a current multiplier should probably be based on 8% positive rate, not 16%, and should also take into account the increased extent of daily testing. Done this way you won't get a multiplier anywhere near 10x--probably closer to 3-4x.
   9081. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: August 14, 2020 at 12:50 PM (#5969607)
My Dad has been on a vent for 30 days, so the 28 day reporting limit can go %$@#@!!. I hope this means he is guaranteed to survive.

We are visiting Dad tomorrow for the first time since it all happened. He is at a specialty hospital now.

Take care everyone. If 2020 wasn't bad enough, Iowa got hammered by the Derecho.

Cedar Rapids is a complete disaster zone, most residents still without power 4 days later, and it may be 5 to 7 days to get it back. National news doesn't seem to care.

https://medium.com/@bjkap/its-worse-in-cedar-rapids-than-you-know-33b4c9b9c7fe


Most power lines and poles are down. Let’s be clear about what this means. In every neighborhood, on every block, powerlines are down and poles are snapped in half. Powerlines are draped over garages, nestled in broken branches, strung five feet high over roads, laying across the street, across the sidewalk, they are everywhere. If they turned the power back on the city would burn.

   9082. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 14, 2020 at 12:53 PM (#5969608)
Good luck BLB. Stay safe and prayers for your father’s health.
   9083. Ron J Posted: August 14, 2020 at 01:02 PM (#5969611)
In quite possibly the least surprising Covid news, all patrons of a Toronto strip club need to get tested after one of the strippers tests positive.

Estimate is 550 clients. And of course they may have infected others.
   9084. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 14, 2020 at 01:46 PM (#5969618)
Barry, I'm so sorry to hear he's still on the ventilator. take care of yourself.

Also in the days news, Stanford yesterday decided not to house first and second year students on campus.
UNC System is being sued by faculty and staff over its reopening plans.
More colleges flip to online rather than hybrid.

And this guy doesn't like the SEALs name being taken in vain by politicians.
   9085. RJ in TO Posted: August 14, 2020 at 01:52 PM (#5969621)
In quite possibly the least surprising Covid news, all patrons of a Toronto strip club need to get tested after one of the strippers tests positive.

Estimate is 550 clients. And of course they may have infected others.
There's going to be a lot of questions from spouses about the sudden need for a COVID test.

The 550 clients is apparently from over a 4 day period, which is somehow both more and less people that I would have expected.
   9086. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: August 14, 2020 at 02:17 PM (#5969625)
Interesting anecdote I heard from a social worker who works at a nonprofit that provides resources and counseling to at risk families. Their goal is to help people get by and intervene to help reduce the number of children removed from homes due to abuse. Referrals typically come from CPS as a last chance kind of thing.

Compared to a typical year, the number of referrals received have dropped by about 75%. Meanwhile, the number of removals has actually increased year over year.

It’s not easy to say exactly where the system is breaking down, but her hypothesis is that since mandated reporters (such as day care workers and teachers) have less time with the kids, and can’t provide early intervention, the abuse is past the point of no return by the time the CPS finds out about it and help isn’t possible. Basically Covid is keeping families from getting the help they need, at a time when stresses are peaking, causing more children and parents to face life-altering changes and creating a massive drain on society that will be felt for many years.

Thanks, Trump.

   9087. Hysterical & Useless Posted: August 14, 2020 at 02:20 PM (#5969626)
Only those who got lap dances being tested, all others successfully maintained 2 meter distance?
   9088. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: August 14, 2020 at 02:32 PM (#5969628)

The concern about abuse going unreported due to kids not being in school is something that I have heard from the "open the schools" crowd. I don't think it's an invalid concern. It's certainly something that public officials should be trying to find solutions for, regardless of whether they're reopening schools or not. As we've seen, just because your school is open today, doesn't mean it will be tomorrow.
   9089. Sleepy was just “inspecting the bunker”, y’all Posted: August 14, 2020 at 02:35 PM (#5969631)
yeah, the argument (observation?) isn’t that we should be opening the schools now, it’s that by failing to get the virus under control so that schools could open safely, the federal government has created a new problem that will need to be solved.

The person I talked to is very much against opening schools until it is safe to do so.
   9090. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 14, 2020 at 02:40 PM (#5969634)
Here’s how this works.

First, frequent testing catches the vast majority of cases. Someone who is infected but gets a false negative and slips through the cracks is likely to be caught the next time they’re tested. For a test that misses 20 percent of positive cases, the chance of an infected person getting two false negatives in a row may be as low as 4 percent. It’s like bailing a boat with a leaky bucket: You just have to bail more quickly to get the job done.

Second, most people who get false-negative results are unlikely to be contagious. Antigen-based screening tests are good at detecting the high virus levels needed to be contagious. By design, screening tests sacrifice accuracy where it matters least to achieve low costs, speed and ease of use.

Finally, those who get a screening test need to know how to interpret the results. Diagnostic tests can tell you whether you’re infected with a high level of certainty. An inexpensive screening test is not as certain, but is still useful. For example, a positive result would mean that you have a high chance of being contagious, in which case you may want to take a diagnostic test for confirmation and quarantine if possible in the meantime. A negative result would mean that you have a low chance of being contagious, but it couldn’t be ruled out. In this case, it would still be important to stay vigilant about COVID-19 transmission.

While screening tests are not as accurate as diagnostic tests, they are a big improvement over flying blind because they provide useful information about whether someone is contagious. The weather report may not be able to tell you with certainty whether it will rain or not, but it can tell you whether it’s a good idea to bring an umbrella.

   9091. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 14, 2020 at 02:44 PM (#5969636)
Interesting anecdote I heard from a social worker who works at a nonprofit that provides resources and counseling to at risk families. Their goal is to help people get by and intervene to help reduce the number of children removed from homes due to abuse. Referrals typically come from CPS as a last chance kind of thing.

Compared to a typical year, the number of referrals received have dropped by about 75%. Meanwhile, the number of removals has actually increased year over year.

It’s not easy to say exactly where the system is breaking down, but her hypothesis is that since mandated reporters (such as day care workers and teachers) have less time with the kids, and can’t provide early intervention, the abuse is past the point of no return by the time the CPS finds out about it and help isn’t possible. Basically Covid is keeping families from getting the help they need, at a time when stresses are peaking, causing more children and parents to face life-altering changes and creating a massive drain on society that will be felt for many years.

Thanks, Trump.

one of the things we already knew about homeschooling (in america, anyway) is that it has a much higher incidence of student-teacher sexual misconduct than public schooling.
   9092. Mayor Blomberg Posted: August 14, 2020 at 02:53 PM (#5969638)
NPR:
more than a third of Americans (35%) say they won't get vaccinated when a vaccine comes available; 60% say they will. There are huge splits by education and party on this. Those with college degrees are 19 points more likely to get vaccinated than those without (72% to 53%), and Democrats are 23 points more likely than Republicans (71% to 48%).


Will 70 percent plus people who have antibodies be enough?
   9093. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 14, 2020 at 03:02 PM (#5969642)
Will 70 percent plus people who have antibodies be enough?
generally, yes, but that assumes that A: the distribution of a vaccine will be smooth and efficient, and B: the people who refuse to get vaccinated will be equally dispersed throughout society, rather than gathered together in diseased clusters.


neither of those things are very likely in america.
   9094. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 14, 2020 at 04:23 PM (#5969655)
Earlier today, I received an Apple Watch notification that made me gasp out loud. A quick glance at the alert, which was from Canada’s official covid-19 exposure-tracking app, stopped me in my tracks. I immediately assumed the worst, but instead, the app was instead letting me know I hadn’t been exposed to the virus over the past week. This unexpected feature wasn’t as reassuring as the app’s creators probably thought it would be.
...
Based on a fairly simple and straightforward installation process, I assumed I wouldn’t hear a peep from the app unless I had been potentially exposed to the virus, otherwise it would just run silently in the background until it needed my urgent attention. Today I learned the hard way that that isn’t the case

the simpsons did it.
   9095. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: August 14, 2020 at 04:25 PM (#5969656)
According to a report from Bloomberg, independent pizza parlors all over the United States are experiencing pepperoni shortages and price hikes as the covid-19 pandemic takes a toll on meat supply chains.

   9096. mathesond Posted: August 14, 2020 at 05:24 PM (#5969668)
9094: So did xkcd
   9097. Eudoxus Posted: August 14, 2020 at 05:28 PM (#5969670)
12 days from the start of the fall semester, and campus is seeing some real hygiene theater. The university has invested in paper signs in our building, marking stairwells as "up only" or "down only", labeled the elevator as "maximum two passengers", and put signs on all of the water fountains saying not to use. (So as to avoid, I guess, another one of those massive water fountain coronavirus outbreaks we've seen so many of.) That should nicely balance out the 25,000 spectators that 25% attendance football games will bring, along with thousands of undergraduates in dorm rooms. No sign yet of anything so bold as, for example, leaving the building doors open so that everyone doesn't have to push the same door handle, or retrofitting of the air conditioning system. But at least I get to work out a new plan for having water available in my office on these pleasant 107 degree days.

Meanwhile, Navajo Nation has reached a death rate of 2650 per million, which I believe more or less equals that of New York City. (See? It's the 0.26% IFR rate confirmed.) Hidalgo County in the Rio Grande Valley is at 1050 per million and not showing much sign of slowing down. Louisiana is at 954 per million and will pass Rhode Island in the next day or two to crack the New England hold on the top positions. Wild-guess-style projection says Louisiana will probably pull ahead of Connecticut and Massachusetts, both in the 1200s, but that New York and New Jersey are less likely.
   9098. Tony S Posted: August 14, 2020 at 05:28 PM (#5969671)

Well, if a "vaccine" is rush-released bypassing the usual safety and effectiveness controls, I probably wouldn't be getting it, either. At least not right away.
   9099. RJ in TO Posted: August 14, 2020 at 05:38 PM (#5969676)
Yeah, some clarification is needed as to whether people mean they won't take any vaccine, or they won't take the first vaccine available. I can certainly see being reluctant about the latter, given how much of a rush there has been to create one. For people in the former category, I think they're idiots (with the exception of those who have legitimate complicating medical issues that could make the vaccine unsafe).

I have not seen polling for Canada about those willing to take/not take the vaccine, but would expect the percentage of people who would be willing to be higher.
   9100. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: August 14, 2020 at 05:45 PM (#5969677)
NYC excess deaths is about 0.32%. Bronx was 0.4% or something.

Navajo nation could be as high or higher than both of those (no idea if they are keeping track of excess deaths).
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