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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 9806 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   9601. . Posted: September 15, 2020 at 04:43 PM (#5976561)
AuntBea, you (not you alone, of course) should recognize clearly and finally face the fact that using the "value of life" implied from all the COVID adjustments we've made, we're never going to open the sports arenas again. Getting to an "acceptable" risk of flu and vaccined COVID (*) means either ignoring it (as we do for things like how our meat gets on the table), lying/rationalizing (also a common endeavor, of the type that will probably cause the Big Ten today to change course on stopping football), or keeping the arenas empty or at the very least masked. Accepting the premises of COVID conservatism as valid for the purposes of logic and discussion, there's no possible case to be made to ever open up the arenas and pre-COVID life again. How is it proposed that we look at these kind of risk-reward questions the way we did pre-COVID ever again? (Or was changing the cultural perspective on risk-reward part of the COVID-conservative project all along?)

(*) I've never quite understood why a vaccine is somehow seen as an automatic, let's get back to normal, game changer. Again as I noted in the heat of March/April , we have a vaccine for the flu and still tens of thousands of flu deaths per season. (**) Why would a COVID vaccine be expected to reduce COVID deaths to zero??? Makes no sense. It's just being made up as it goes along. Which is why we saw the op-ed in the Times today.

(**) Which again led to false "flubro" accusations.
   9602. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 15, 2020 at 04:49 PM (#5976564)
My takeaway from the Economist article was similar to #9599.

But also that some of these gains against the flu can probably be maintained even without COVID-style restrictions. Better hygiene, getting vaccinated, staying home when you're sick -- these are relatively low hanging fruit and should come at minimal cost.
   9603. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 15, 2020 at 04:58 PM (#5976566)
Only about half of people get the flu vaccine. I expect more people to ultimately get a COVID vaccine once it's shown to be safe.

And my understanding is that the flu is whole family of viruses that mutate more quickly than COVID and therefore the vaccine is of more limited effectiveness. Basically there is some educated guesswork as to which strains of the flu to include in the vaccine each year but they're never 100% correct. I'm sure someone who is more of an expert can explain better than me.

   9604. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 15, 2020 at 05:01 PM (#5976567)
Scientific American @sciam
Scientific American has never endorsed a presidential candidate in our 175-year history—until now.

The 2020 election is literally a matter of life and death. We urge you to vote for health, science and Joe Biden for President.
   9605. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 15, 2020 at 05:03 PM (#5976568)
AuntBea, you (not you alone, of course) should recognize clearly and finally face the fact that using the "value of life" implied from all the COVID adjustments we've made, we're never going to open the sports arenas again.
Funny, I can't recall making an economic case for lockdowns or even social distancing on these pages. Also, personally speaking, I really don't care at all if we never have sports arenas open for crowds again. It's extremely far down on my list of things that I consider important in life, both on a personal and societal level.

That said, strictly on an economic basis, I also disagree. Flu kills like 40,000 people in an average year in the US. As 9602 says, probably with cheap, common sense prevention we can maybe reduce that by half. Add in thorough vaccinations and maybe we get it down 75-90%. There's likely not an economic case to be made to try to prevent the remaining deaths while making significant sacrifices to the economy.
   9606. . Posted: September 15, 2020 at 05:37 PM (#5976580)
Also, personally speaking, I really don't care at all if we never have sports arenas open for crowds again. It's extremely far down on my list of things that I consider important in life, both on a personal and societal level.


Fair enough, I was going to go back and edit and include things like movies, plays, schools, concerts, etc, but ran out of time. Same logic prevails.

But we're at the point now where it should just be faced: Barring some kind of unlikely natural miracle that wipes it out, COVID is here to stay, vaccine or otherwise, and there are going to be cases and deaths for as long into the future as we can see -- just as there have been with the flu. If the risk-reward standard that prevailed between March and September 2020 continues to prevail, American life with crowds is never coming back. The only way around it is ignoring, lying/rationalizing/euphemizing to and with ourselves, or changing the calculus back to something closely resembling January 2020.(*) This was always how it was going to be, which was the point I was always making with the flu "comparison."

We're nowhere close to cultural psychic normalcy yet; one can only hope that the election season is responsible for a lot of that.

Flu kills like 40,000 people in an average year in the US. As 9602 says, probably with cheap, common sense prevention we can maybe reduce that by half. Add in thorough vaccinations and maybe we get it down 75-90%. There's likely not an economic case to be made to try to prevent the remaining deaths while making significant sacrifices to the economy.


I can't tell whether this comment is intentionally limiting itself to the flu, but I'm talking not about the flu, but about COVID.

(*) There's really no rational calculus that would ever get us to the point of shedding the masks. Again barring a miracle, lack of a mask will be able to be linked with heightened COVID risk to others for decades.(**) The only way back will be the irrational, "we're sick of wearing these stupid masks and we're not going to do it anymore." Who knows when or if that will ever happen?

(**) No less than in 2020, a Twitter user in 2045 will be able to post a picture of someone not wearing a mask, calling him a selfish #######, and asking why he's threatening the poster's elderly parents or grandparents. Whether the user actually will or not is an open question, but the underlying template of possibility isn't going to change.
   9607. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 15, 2020 at 06:12 PM (#5976590)
We've probably been averaging over 9,000 excess deaths per week after we came down from the initial peak in April/May. That's more than 15% more deaths than we would have had otherwise. We might want to wait a bit (preferably while we make better than half-assed efforts) before we declare this thing solved enough that we can go back to normal.
   9608. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 15, 2020 at 06:58 PM (#5976595)
More from Caputo.


Caputo told staffers that his series of false accusations on Facebook Live this weekend — which included unfounded allegations that the Centers for Disease Control was harboring a “resistance unit” — reflected poorly on HHS’ communications office. He blamed his recent behavior on a combination of physical health issues and the toll of fielding death threats against his family. Caputo also acknowledged that he had never read one of the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports, despite his team's ongoing efforts to try to edit those documents.
...
Caputo also disputed anonymous White House criticism about his mental health — saying that some of his comments have been taken out of context — and concluded the meeting by encouraging his staff to listen to music by the Grateful Dead.
   9609. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 15, 2020 at 07:44 PM (#5976620)
Not a random sample, but a very large one. Only 2.5% of blood donors had antibodies for COVID at the end of August.
   9610. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 16, 2020 at 12:11 AM (#5976838)
On Monday, news broke that a whistleblower was claiming that a doctor at an ICE detention facility was giving a high number of hysterectomies to detained women, often without informed consent from the patients. Today, Prism reported that they have identified the doctor performing the non-consensual hysterectomies as gynecologist Mahendra Amin, who is based in Douglas, Georgia. Amin, who is an immigrant, has a relationship with the Irwin County Hospital in Georgia, where the Irwin County Detention Center takes some detainees for treatment.
...
“I’ve had several inmates tell me that they’ve been to see the doctor and they’ve had hysterectomies and they don’t know why they went or why they’re going,” the nurse said in the complaint, noting that other ICDC nurses also expressed concern about the gynecologist, whom she referred to as “the uterus collector.”

   9611. Hank Gillette Posted: September 16, 2020 at 12:55 AM (#5976848)
Caputo is full-on dangerously nuts apparently. Only the best people.


Unquestioning loyalty to him is the only criterion that matters to Trump.

Being dangerously nuts is just a bonus.
   9612. BrianBrianson Posted: September 16, 2020 at 06:09 AM (#5976851)
Which is good as a sanity check, even if it's not random (presumably, at least, people who feel sick aren't giving blood), and lines up well with the ~4% of Americans have had it I get from deaths on the back of my enveloppe.
   9613. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 16, 2020 at 11:13 AM (#5976930)
A tad higher than expected for reported deaths this week, but not enough ti make up for Labor Day delays yet. At best we are halfway there. The numbers for 2 and 3 weeks back are still quite low, indicating a backlog.

The last peak was the week of 7/25, so we are now 8 weeks out from that. If I had to guess, I would say another 2-3 weeks before we hit the bottom (on actual date of death. Reported deaths maybe 2 weeks longer). That means my guess is cases and hospitalizations will start leveling off pretty soon before going back up. Very hard to know at this point though.

week ending       week ending     weeks          total
date of           actual date     back           deaths
report            of death                       recorded

7/08              7/04            1              13,314 (post-July 4 report effect)
7/15              7/11            1              15,492
7/22              7/18            1              16,321
7/29              7/25            1              17.405
8/05              8/01            1              16,771
8/12              8/08            1              15,719
8/19              8/15            1              16,664
8/26              8/22            1              15,268
9/02              8/29            1              16,387
9/09              9/05            1              11,500 (approximate. post-Labor Day effect)
9/16              9/12            1              14,321 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)

7/15              7/04            2              31,214 (post-July 4 effect)
7/22              7/11            2              40,259
7/29              7/18            2              40,694
8/05              7/25            2              40,144
8/12              8/01            2              39,459
8/19              8/08            2              39,979
8/26              8/15            2              39,372
9/02              8/22            2              38,041
9/09              8/29            2              34,320 (post-Labor Day)
9/16              9/12            2              33,560 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)

7/22              7/04            3              48.439
7/29              7/11            3              50,387
8/05              7/18            3              50,855
8/12              7/25            3              51,263
8/19              8/01            3              51,702
8/26              8/08            3              51,037
9/02              8/15            3              50,579
9/09              8/22            3              48,804 (post-Labor Day effect)
9/16              8/29            3              46,945 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)

7/29              7/04            4              52,489
8/05              7/11            4              54,123
8/12              7/18            4              55,035
8/19              7/25            4              56,189
8/26              8/01            4              56,033
9/02              8/08            4              55,950
9/09              8/15            4              55,145
9/16              8/22            4              53,771

8/05              7/04            5              54,117
8/12              7/11            5              56,200
8/19              7/18            5              57,391
8/26              7/25            5              58,427
9/02              8/01            5              58,446
9/09              8/08            5              58,445
9/16              8/15            5              57,692

8/12              7/04            6              55,737
8/19              7/11            6              57,560
8/26              7/18            6              58,659
9/02              7/25            6              59,898
9/09              8/01            6              59,742
9/16              8/08            6              59,942

8/19              7/04            7              56,735
8/26              7/11            7              58,493
9/02              7/18            7              59,747
9/09              7/25            7              60,919
9/16              8/01            7              60,803

8/26              7/04            8              57,746
9/02              7/11            8              59,256
9/09              7/18            8              60,585
9/16              7/25            8              61,931

9/02              7/04            9              58,176
9/09              7/11            9              59,943
9/16              7/18            9              61,542

9/09              7/04           10              58,608
9/16              7/11           10              60,739

9/16              7/04           11              59,058
   9614. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: September 16, 2020 at 11:23 AM (#5976934)
An analysis of America's efforts to control COVID-19.
   9615. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 16, 2020 at 11:52 AM (#5976946)
US crossed 200,000 deaths on Worldometer yesterday, is comfortably over 500 deaths/M and has the UK, at 10th in per capita deaths within its sights. Florida in particular keeps humming along in deaths/day, leaving me to wonder if COVID death rates might be a prediction for which way a state goes in November.
   9616. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 16, 2020 at 11:53 AM (#5976948)
Even with what appears to be a lingering big Labor Day effect for the 8/29 week, the CDC still has excess deaths for that week significantly above baseline already, and likely to rise by at least another 4000 (and maybe by more).
   9617. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 16, 2020 at 03:05 PM (#5977003)
Across 13 countries surveyed, a median of just 15% say the U.S. has done a good job dealing with the coronavirus outbreakhttps://t.co/4EwVHhz4Gl pic.twitter.com/DPV7AOqKUg

— Pew Research Global (@pewglobal) September 15, 2020
   9618. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 16, 2020 at 04:11 PM (#5977027)
Herd immunity in NYC? Probably not. The white collar workers have been barely tapped yet. Send them back to work and they get the virus.
   9619. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 16, 2020 at 04:40 PM (#5977042)
A bit hard to estimate state excess deaths right now due to extra delays in reporting, but let's try:

(per 1000)

New York          2.10
New Jersey        2.05
D.C.              1.75
Louisiana         1.65
Connecticut       1.60
Mississippi       1.60

Arizona           1.25
Delaware          1.25
Massachusetts     1.20
Michigan          1.15
South Carolina    1.10
Alabama           1.10
Illinois          1.00
Maryland          1.00
Florida           1.00
Rhode Island      1.00
   9620. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 16, 2020 at 05:16 PM (#5977053)
Herd immunity in NYC?


I believe a herd mentality is a prerequisite for any meaningful immunity.
   9621. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 16, 2020 at 09:40 PM (#5977106)
Meanwhile, in Pragertopia:

Perhaps the best way to measure the real damage of the coronavirus is to measure excess deaths. There appears to be mounting evidence that excess deaths have either returned to normal or dropped below normal. If so, the crisis is over…
   9622. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 16, 2020 at 11:34 PM (#5977123)
Ummm, what is Dennis Prager, and is he also forecasting fewer, smaller wildfires in years to come because the forests have herd immunity from already being burned?
   9623. Hysterical & Useless Posted: September 17, 2020 at 09:33 AM (#5977149)
I'd been a blood donor for many years, until year before last when I was told my iron level was too low. Per my doctor, it was in the normal range but the Red Cross had raised their standard. But in August I was able to give blood again, and the RC even sent me an email telling me where my blood had been sent to be used. Which I thought was a pretty cool little marketing tool.

Point being that since they used it I guess my blood wasn't tainted.
   9624. SoSH U at work Posted: September 17, 2020 at 10:42 AM (#5977158)
I'd been a blood donor for many years, until year before last when I was told my iron level was too low. Per my doctor, it was in the normal range but the Red Cross had raised their standard. But in August I was able to give blood again, and the RC even sent me an email telling me where my blood had been sent to be used. Which I thought was a pretty cool little marketing tool.


Spurred by this, I just looked at my Red Cross portal for the first time following my donation late last month. And, very much to my surprise, I tested positive for coronavirus antibodies.
   9625. BrianBrianson Posted: September 17, 2020 at 10:43 AM (#5977160)
Okay, you joke, but we do controlled burns to decrease the risk of massive wildfires. Otherwise, wildfires do tend to be quasi-periodic.
   9626. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: September 17, 2020 at 11:15 AM (#5977170)
Spurred by this, I just looked at my Red Cross portal for the first time following my donation late last month. And, very much to my surprise, I tested positive for coronavirus antibodies.


Unclean!
   9627. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 17, 2020 at 11:27 AM (#5977174)
SoSH, where are you located?

I'm in NYC. If there really are 30%+ of us that have had the virus by now, a significant fraction of people like me will have had to have gotten it. If I were to test positive for antibodies, there won't have been any obvious source, or any symptoms.
   9628. SoSH U at work Posted: September 17, 2020 at 11:34 AM (#5977177)
Chicago area now, but I would have been in Northwest Indiana at the time I would have contracted it. If I had it, I was either entirely or mostly asymptomatic (there was a brief period very early when I was a little under the weather. That was shortly after my wife had a really bad illness that she figured was COVID-19. I was always skeptical of her assessment given where she was and just how little spread was there at that time. Now, I'm thinking it's possible she really did have it).
   9629. bunyon Posted: September 17, 2020 at 11:39 AM (#5977178)
SoSH, I'd say likely.

Does the RC test every sample for coronavirus antibodies? Donating usually makes me feel like hell but I'll go this afternoon if so.
   9630. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: September 17, 2020 at 11:42 AM (#5977180)
SoSH, I don't even know what I should say. Sorry? Good thing you had it? Your wife must've had it.

Strange times.

The Red Cross does appear to be testing all donations for antibodies:
https://www.redcrossblood.org/donate-blood/dlp/covid-19-antibody-testing.html
   9631. SoSH U at work Posted: September 17, 2020 at 11:43 AM (#5977182)
Does the RC test every sample for coronavirus antibodies? Donating usually makes me feel like hell but I'll go this afternoon if so.


I think that's the goal, though I'm not sure that has happened.

I always feel loopy when I do the double-red donations (which I did earlier in the pandemic, since I wanted to limit my trips out), but not when I give the standard donation.

   9632. SoSH U at work Posted: September 17, 2020 at 11:43 AM (#5977183)
SoSH, I don't even know what I should say. Sorry? Good thing you had it? Your wife must've had it.


Congrats, I think.
   9633. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: September 17, 2020 at 11:48 AM (#5977190)
double
   9634. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 17, 2020 at 12:09 PM (#5977199)
CDC's best estimate for excess deaths is 235,000 or 263,000 (depending on how you handle weekly negatives), as of 3 weeks ago, with the prior two weeks (4 and 5 weeks ago) very incomplete still. That puts the actual estimate, up through today, at about 265,000-300,000.

My own estimate (again, through today) is right about at the top of that range. Probably 295,000 or so.

It takes 7-14 days (median) for deaths to be reported, so you can know 15,000 off of that if you want to compare to current reported deaths. CDC currently thinks the excess deaths are 25% to 40% higher than the reported deaths (once you account for the extra lag that the CDC still refuses to adjust for, but that shows up in their numbers over time).
   9635. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: September 17, 2020 at 12:22 PM (#5977206)
An actual US success story: After being one of the hardest-hit regions in May, the Navajo Nation appears to have brought the coronavirus under control (after being forced to sue the US government to release COVID-19 funding).
   9636. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 17, 2020 at 12:28 PM (#5977207)
We are just over 6 months into the virus (at least as far as deaths go). You can't really extrapolate out to a year, for all sorts of reasons. However, the estimates of being 10x as deadly as an average flu (40,000 deaths per year) might have been too rosy, even with the mitigation efforts that have been put into place so far.
   9637. Lassus Posted: September 17, 2020 at 01:17 PM (#5977226)
However, the estimates of being 10x as deadly as an average flu (40,000 deaths per year) might have been too rosy

Does this really track? I can't find a general "per month" statistic, but I don't really see how the next six months worth of deaths are going to equal the last six months of deaths. What am I missing?
   9638. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: September 17, 2020 at 01:36 PM (#5977235)
Actual confirmed flu deaths (using the same criteria as confirmed COVID-19 deaths) range from 3,500 to 15,500 per year. We're already well over 10x that number this year. If we take the mean, 9000 deaths, we're at over 20x the number of deaths right now.
   9639. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 17, 2020 at 01:59 PM (#5977241)
Does this really track? I can't find a general "per month" statistic, but I don't really see how the next six months worth of deaths are going to equal the last six months of deaths. What am I missing?
Nothing? I already said you can't necessarily extrapolate out to a year, and said "may" be too optimistic. That said, if we really are close to 300,000 excess deaths, we could have half as many in the next 6 months and still 10x would have been too rosy. Don't forget, we also haven't been through a winter of this yet.

edit: my rough estimate of excess deaths per month:
March: 17,000
April: 88,000
May: 45,000
June: 27,000
July: 49,000
August: 45,000
   9640. Lassus Posted: September 17, 2020 at 02:28 PM (#5977250)
I can't really answer Slivers, as I wasn't using his numbers.

I understand the excess deaths numbers, I always just feel really weird leaning heavily on them. I likened them to defensive metrics earlier, at least in my own limited mind. (Does the 40,000 per year figure cited for flu comparison also use excess deaths? Is that why the number is so vastly different from Sliversesseseses'?)

Anyhow, I'm not trying (but probably failing) to be combative or annoying, I freely admit I push back on things that seem subjectively like a bit of a bleak oversell.

EDIT: Also, how did June's excess death number end up so low?
   9641. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 17, 2020 at 03:04 PM (#5977269)
(Does the 40,000 per year figure cited for flu comparison also use excess deaths?
Yes, I think so. At the very least it definitely does not use confirmed cases (and thus deaths), which as 9638 notes, are much lower.

edit: the method is actually more complicated, most likely because the incidence of flu is fairly low (20,000-60,000 per year), or 600-2500 per week (1%-4% of normal deaths per week) which could often hide in the margin of error of the baseline. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm

At any rate:


Why doesn’t CDC base its seasonal flu mortality estimates only on death certificates that specifically list influenza?
Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates. There may be several reasons for underreporting, including that patients aren’t always tested for seasonal influenza virus infection, particularly older adults who are at greatest risk of seasonal influenza complications and death. Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified because the influenza virus is only detectable for a limited number of days after infection and many people don’t seek medical care in this interval. Additionally, some deaths – particularly among those 65 years and older – are associated with secondary complications of influenza (including bacterial pneumonias). For these and other reasons, modeling strategies are commonly used to estimate flu-associated deaths. Only counting deaths where influenza was recorded on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact.


   9642. bunyon Posted: September 17, 2020 at 03:17 PM (#5977275)
I always feel loopy when I do the double-red donations (which I did earlier in the pandemic, since I wanted to limit my trips out), but not when I give the standard donation.

I have no idea why I feel the way I do. No reason for it, really. I'm very large and generally healthy except for the chronic illness (T1D). But it wipes me out. I kept at it for years, figuring it was needed. But as I got older I just couldn't do it.
   9643. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 17, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5977277)
You might not like excess deaths, and it's possibly an oversell, but if so, not by that much.

However, actual reported deaths have many more problems than excess deaths (are much more like defensive metrics, if you will), so if you want to be skeptical of the mortality numbers, you should start there.
   9644. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 17, 2020 at 03:33 PM (#5977283)
However, the estimates of being 10x as deadly as an average flu (40,000 deaths per year) might have been too rosy, even with the mitigation efforts that have been put into place so far.


Doesn't this depend on what we mean by "10x as deadly as an average flu"? The flu is hugely seasonal, so 40,000 flu deaths in one year is essentially the same as 40,000 flu deaths in six months, if we're talking about the six months of the year where people are actually getting (and dying from) the flu. I tended to interpret the "10x as deadly" as from the perspective of an individual who contracted said disease - if I get COVID, my odds of dying are 10x my odds of dying if I get the flu. Although the fact that COVID is apparently NOT as hugely seasonal as the flu certainly affects the odds of me actually contracting COVID vis-a-vis the flu.
   9645. Lassus Posted: September 17, 2020 at 03:38 PM (#5977285)
I have no idea why I feel the way I do. No reason for it, really. I'm very large and generally healthy except for the chronic illness (T1D). But it wipes me out. I kept at it for years, figuring it was needed. But as I got older I just couldn't do it.

Wait. We can give blood? I... well, I've been assuming otherwise since 1983. But... I guess I never asked?

Really?
   9646. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 17, 2020 at 03:56 PM (#5977288)
Doesn't this depend on what we mean by "10x as deadly as an average flu"? The flu is hugely seasonal, so 40,000 flu deaths in one year is essentially the same as 40,000 flu deaths in six months, if we're talking about the six months of the year where people are actually getting (and dying from) the flu. I tended to interpret the "10x as deadly" as from the perspective of an individual who contracted said disease - if I get COVID, my odds of dying are 10x my odds of dying if I get the flu. Although the fact that COVID is apparently NOT as hugely seasonal as the flu certainly affects the odds of me actually contracting COVID vis-a-vis the flu.
The conversation was (I think) about total societal impact, so a year for a year comparison of total mortality seems quite fair. And individuals wouldn't really come into it.

That said, if you want to compare IFR, I think the comparison is similar. Supposedly 8% of people get a symptomatic case of the flu in a normal year, and twice that many or more get the flu, including asymptomatic. That's about a .075% mortality rate, maybe less. 265k-300k deaths in the US for 6 million known COVID cases (going back a month, means we have a mortality rate of 0.9-1% (IFR) so far if we use a 5x case multiplier (9% of the US so far infected, as of a month ago), 0.45-0.5% IFR if we use a 10x case multiplier (18% of the US so far infected, as of a month ago) and 1.5%-1.65% IFR if we use a 3x case multiplier (5.5% of the country infected, as of a month ago. The total number infected is probably not this low, but throwing it in here because of the Red Cross antibody survey, and it is close to the estimated excess mortality IFR numbers for NYC, from March-May, and the numbers for Spain).
   9647. SoSH U at work Posted: September 17, 2020 at 04:31 PM (#5977306)

Wait. We can give blood? I... well, I've been assuming otherwise since 1983. But... I guess I never asked?

Really?


I feel like I'm missing some reference here.
   9648. bunyon Posted: September 17, 2020 at 04:52 PM (#5977312)
Wait. We can give blood? I... well, I've been assuming otherwise since 1983. But... I guess I never asked?

Really?


Well, I do tell them. There was confusion once about having possibly taken beef insulin but I found out that wasn't considered an issue. Of course, as I say, I feel like hell afterwards without good reason, so...maybe not?

I feel like I'm missing some reference here.

####### healthy bastards. Serves you right to miss some things.
   9649. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 17, 2020 at 06:02 PM (#5977327)
Don Moynihan @donmoyn
The USPS had a plan to send 5 reusable facemasks to every household in early April. Even had a press release ready.

The White House blocked the plan.

“There was concern...that households receiving masks might create concern or panic."
https://washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/09/17/usps-trump-coronavirus-amazon-foia/
   9650. Srul Itza Posted: September 17, 2020 at 07:21 PM (#5977340)
I feel like I'm missing some reference here.


T1D -- Type 1 Diabetes
   9651. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 18, 2020 at 01:29 AM (#5977421)
SO apparently the new WH strategy is to beat COVID-19 in the courts

Quick recap: We posted a public letter saying, basically: "Scott Atlas is giving the president bad advice. It will hurt people."
Today, we got this love note from @SWAtlasHoover
.I stand by everything we said.
More facts, more science. Less Kasowitz.


Scott Atlas hires? is loaned? trump attorney Marc Kassowitz to sue Stanford Medical faculty.
   9652. Ron J Posted: September 18, 2020 at 08:11 AM (#5977427)
An example of different standards in action. Ottawa's population is just under 1.4 million. Our daily new Covid-19 case count has been in the general range of 40 for a while. I think most places in the US would settle.

The province has announced some new restrictions:

The government will limit social gatherings in Ottawa, Toronto and the Peel region to 10 people inside and 25 people outside. Down from the previous limit of 50 people inside and 100 outside. I was going to say that this won't affect most people, but ... My sister's best friend decided to cancel her husband's celebration of life.

Ontario also introduced legislation to raise fines for breaking the rules, with a minimum fine of $10,000 for party organizers and $750 for anyone who attends the event.

So far no new restrictions on businesses.

It's not currently bad (though I know the wait to get tested is terrible right now though. Heard reports of all day waits at some places) and most would really like it to not get bad so there's general support for the legislation and for the government.
   9653. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 18, 2020 at 08:58 AM (#5977434)
The number of reported active cases in my county/health unit here in London Ontario has spiked from 9 on Monday up to 30 yesterday, and I'm sure there is a backlog/surge coming from a bunch of kids testing positive at Western University.
Ontario has jumped from 1.01 new cases/100k people on September 7 to 1.77 new cases/100k people yesterday.

I fully expect restrictions to be announced some time next week, and possibly a lock down again by mid October (if things don't slow down).
   9654. BrianBrianson Posted: September 18, 2020 at 09:20 AM (#5977437)
How're the mask wearing and soap availability in Ontario? My media/family/friends are very mask focussed, but I never hear-tell of soap, which is widely deployed in France (and essentially mandatory in some grocery stores).

Early on soap was a huge focus, now I don't seem much hear-tell of it in Anglo media (and I don't follow franco-Ontarien media; though I might iffen someone had good recommendations)
   9655. Greg Pope Posted: September 18, 2020 at 10:04 AM (#5977441)
Wait. We can give blood? I... well, I've been assuming otherwise since 1983. But... I guess I never asked?

The American Red Cross allows you to donate with diabetes:

Donors with diabetes who take any kind of insulin are eligible to donate as long their diabetes is well controlled.


I believe that the UK does not allow it. Also, remember that the ARC is not the only place to donate blood. They are a national organization, but many places have a local blood center. Although the local blood center may have different rules about donating. Lassus, where do you live?
   9656. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 18, 2020 at 11:19 AM (#5977455)
EDIT: Also, how did June's excess death number end up so low?
Mostly because the country was at its most shut down in April and May, and as a result, reached its nadir for daily new infections in late May.
   9657. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 18, 2020 at 12:25 PM (#5977473)
Mostly because the country was at its most shut down in April and May, and as a result, reached its nadir for daily new infections in late May

Wait, there's an actual reason why places like Canada are doing so much better?
   9658. Ron J Posted: September 18, 2020 at 12:45 PM (#5977477)
#9654 Mask wearing ... very good in stores. Not so much outdoors. Hand sanitizers are now widely available.
   9659. Swoboda is freedom Posted: September 18, 2020 at 02:11 PM (#5977502)
I lived in the UK in the 1990's so cannot donate blood due to mad cow disease.

I was in the 2 gallon club too.
   9660. Greg Pope Posted: September 18, 2020 at 03:15 PM (#5977513)
I lived in the UK in the 1990's so cannot donate blood due to mad cow disease.

Yeah, unfortunately that one's still in effect.
   9661. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 18, 2020 at 03:20 PM (#5977515)
#9654 Mask wearing ... very good in stores. Not so much outdoors.
Is outdoor mask-wearing really supposed to be a thing? As I understand it the data are pretty clear that the odds of getting enough of a dose to get infected from casual contact in an outdoor setting are pretty much nil. "Casual contact" meaning not things like large crowds at stadiums or motorcycle rallies or whatnot.
   9662. Tony S Posted: September 18, 2020 at 03:34 PM (#5977517)

The only time I wear a mask outdoors is when I'm in a densely occupied area. That doesn't happen very often -- I tend to avoid such situations to begin with.

   9663. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 18, 2020 at 03:42 PM (#5977519)
So the CDC replaced its guidance on testing with guidance on testing that it actually wrote.
   9664. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 18, 2020 at 04:44 PM (#5977528)
So the CDC replaced its guidance on testing with guidance on testing that it actually wrote.
science:
The CDC’s new language is to the point. For those who know they’ve come into recent close contact with someone who has a documented infection from the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2—close contact meaning spending at least 15 minutes 6 feet or closer to the person—the CDC now simply states: “You need a test.”

for anyone who forgets why the CDC changed their guidance to something that was completely nonsensical, let us remember:

Anthony Fauci—head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and leading member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force—revealed that final changes to the language were made while he was under anesthesia for a surgery to remove throat polyps.

On Thursday, the NYT reported that the CDC was not only forced to accept the changed guidelines but that the changes were made without going through the CDC’s standard scientific review process. The NYT also reported that scientists at the CDC strenuously objected to the new guidelines but were told by senior staff in an email obtained by the NYT that: “We do not have the ability to make substantial edits.”

   9665. RJ in TO Posted: September 18, 2020 at 05:26 PM (#5977540)
How're the mask wearing and soap availability in Ontario? My media/family/friends are very mask focussed, but I never hear-tell of soap, which is widely deployed in France (and essentially mandatory in some grocery stores).

Early on soap was a huge focus, now I don't seem much hear-tell of it in Anglo media (and I don't follow franco-Ontarien media; though I might iffen someone had good recommendations)


Masks are mandatory in stores, and in reasonable use elsewhere. At least in my neighborhood, most people wear them when they're heading anywhere further than the mailbox. For hand soap/sanitizer, I thought most grocery stores were making it available on entry (and attempting to wipe down cart handles/whatever), although I have no idea how accurate this understanding is as I haven't been in a grocery store in about six months, instead relying on curbside pickup/delivery for everything.
   9666. Ron J Posted: September 18, 2020 at 06:04 PM (#5977547)
#9661 You'll often see groups of people outdoors without masks. Nowhere near as problematic as the same situation indoors but still not great.

Unrelated: Apparently the stats show the single largest cause of new infections in the Ottawa area is social gatherings and the largest single group right now isn't the kids but 30-40 year olds.

One school (in another area) has had to close after a teacher with symptoms chose to go to school -- and subsequently tested positive. Sigh.
   9667. Ron J Posted: September 18, 2020 at 06:13 PM (#5977549)
#9665 I'm slightly more venturesome. Hand sanitizer varies between nearly always available and no admittance without using our hand sanitizer. Had a friend get into an argument with store security when she wanted to use her hand sanitizer rather than the one the store supplied (She doesn't like the idea of touching the pump)

Among the places requiring hand sanitizer use are Home Hardware, Staples, Canada Computing, Farm Boy.

They're cleaning frequently but not as obsessively as early days. Many stores are closing an hour early and opening an hour late to allow for more cleaning. And to handle restocking without having to work around customers.
   9668. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 18, 2020 at 08:27 PM (#5977570)
I was wondering why parts of Queens seemed to have lower levels of virus incidence than expected for NYC, based on economic status. This article from May attributes it in part to cultural response by Asians. 23% of Queens is Asian, and they are more dense in certain zipcodes than in others.
   9669. Lassus Posted: September 18, 2020 at 08:43 PM (#5977574)
Although the local blood center may have different rules about donating. Lassus, where do you live?

Hell.

I mean, Utica area, NY. Also...

as long their diabetes is well controlled.

Heh. Well....
   9670. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 18, 2020 at 08:59 PM (#5977577)
   9671. Greg Pope Posted: September 18, 2020 at 11:17 PM (#5977623)
Utica area, NY.

I think that’s Red Cross only. No regional centers there.
   9672. BrianBrianson Posted: September 19, 2020 at 01:17 AM (#5977643)
Is outdoor mask-wearing really supposed to be a thing?


It's required by law where I am in public streets, parks, and the like, with a €135 fine. Each city is allowed to set their own locations where it's required; over the course of the first week of that we went from nowhere, to a few high traffic spots, to everywhere. Compliance ain't great, and I'm not sure any fining is actually taking place, but it's certainly improved over how it was before it was mandated. Obviously, like, cafés and kebab shops with outdoor seating and people removing masks are better than indoors, so I'm not too critical (and like, I have to wear a mask in my suddenly shared office with one guy, same guy, all day, five meters away, but we can each lunch together in the canteen no mask one meter away, with 100 other people; okay, policies and practices ain't perfect)
   9673. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 19, 2020 at 01:59 AM (#5977646)
Only 2.4% of adult Virginians were found to have antibodies between June 1 and August 14 (i.e., a little over 200,000 people if applied to all Virginia, and fewer actually, if you only count adults). Midpoint is about July 7, by which time there had already been about 3100 excess deaths (1900 reported). Using reported deaths you get an IFR of just under 1%, with excess deaths over 1.5%. Of course, antibodies fade, but how much depends on who you ask. Some studies say only a very little (10% over 3 months) and some say a lot more. Also, the survey was not completely random, though it was intended to be representative.

By June 1 there had been 45,000 official cases, but if you want to go back a couple weeks to adjust for delays in antibodies showing up in the blood, it was as few as 30,000. By August 1 it was 90,000. Halfway through, about 60,000.
   9674. manchestermets Posted: September 19, 2020 at 09:28 AM (#5977653)
I believe that the UK does not allow it.


Essentially, people whose diabetes is treated with insulin can't donate, others can. There are some other exceptions, but that's the basic story.

https://www.diabetes.co.uk/can-people-with-diabetes-give-blood.html
   9675. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 20, 2020 at 07:19 PM (#5977799)
Probably too early to say for sure, but it's possible the pandemic is starting to pick up steam again in the US. Cases are up slightly and percent testing positive is basically flat over the last two weeks, indicating a very slight uptick. Also, for the first week since mid-July, hospitalizations seem to have dropped significantly less than 10% (closer to 5%). Combined, these are an indications that the virus spread has been increasing over the last 2-3 weeks. We should have a much better idea in a week or two if we have hit the temporary bottom, are continuing to go down, or are going back up. Even if this is the bottom, which is by no means certain, reported deaths probably will decrease for the next 2-4 weeks, after which we might see an uptick again.
   9676. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: September 21, 2020 at 06:15 AM (#5977862)
A big week for the UK, where we're expecting to hear that further suppression methods and maybe even a partial re-lockdown are on their way, based upon cases rising from a 7-day average of about 1k/day in late August to 3.5k/day now. The briefing being given now by the government's chief medical and scientific officers states that antibody tests suggest only about 8% of the UK as a whole have antibodies, with perhaps double that in London. Considering how hard the UK was hit in spring, that's disappointing for those hoping that the UK would somehow be close to herd immunity by now.
   9677. puck Posted: September 21, 2020 at 10:37 AM (#5977888)
Probably too early to say for sure, but it's possible the pandemic is starting to pick up steam again in the US.


Seems like there are spikes in college areas (e.g., Boulder county, where U Colorado Boulder is). My worry is how much it spreads from those cases.
   9678. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 21, 2020 at 11:43 AM (#5977905)
Yeah, in Florida at least the cases have begun to flatten/trend upwards slightly again, but the average age of cases has declined a bit, implying that the increase in cases may be partly due to spread at colleges/schools (or just increased testing of that population).
   9679. RJ in TO Posted: September 21, 2020 at 12:48 PM (#5977914)
My worry is how much it spreads from those cases.
That will happen around Thanksgiving.
   9680. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2020 at 01:46 PM (#5977927)
Apparently not only would those who died of COVID have their lives shortened by mere "weeks or months", their death was a mercy.

Would they almost certainly have died within weeks to months? And were their lives when they DID die something most healthy adults can't even imagine? Yes.


The denialists are disgusting people. Just absolutely ####### disgusting.

(Just as a reminder, as I've noted repeatedly, the close to 300,000 excess deaths are above and beyond any persons who would have died "within weeks to months" anyway.)
   9681. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 21, 2020 at 01:54 PM (#5977928)
The denialists are disgusting people. Just absolutely ####### disgusting.

death cult gonna death cult.
   9682. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 21, 2020 at 01:57 PM (#5977932)
9680 where is that quote from?
   9683. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 21, 2020 at 02:23 PM (#5977935)
Berenson twitter.
   9684. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 21, 2020 at 05:31 PM (#5977956)
Who?
   9685. Ron J Posted: September 21, 2020 at 07:14 PM (#5977971)
Red Berenson? Old St. Louis Blues center.
   9686. Tony S Posted: September 21, 2020 at 08:54 PM (#5977986)
The denialists are disgusting people. Just absolutely ####### disgusting.


Funny how they're suddenly embracing euthanasia. I'll bet this time last year it was the Worst Affront To Human Dignity Ever.
   9687. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 21, 2020 at 10:26 PM (#5977993)
Yeah, I know if I were a 29 year-old former miL hockey player now coaching youth hockey I'd much rather be dead. What sort of future could he have at that point? I mean, he was already married? Good thing the kids gave it to him.
   9688. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 21, 2020 at 10:35 PM (#5977995)

One of the Trump administration’s flacks at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases secretly trashed the agency under the persona “streiff” for the right-wing blog RedState, according to a Monday report by the Daily Beast. He is now planning to “retire.”

The official in question, public affairs specialist William B. Crews, wrote on RedState that the agency’s chief and public face of the White House coronavirus task force, Dr. Anthony Fauci, is “attention-grubbing and media-whoring.”
“I think we’re at the point where it is safe to say that the entire Wuhan virus scare was nothing more or less than a massive fraud perpetrated upon the American people by ‘experts’ who were determined to fundamentally change the way the country lives and is organized and governed,” Crews wrote in a June post on RedState.

“If there were justice,” he added, “we’d send and [sic] few dozen of these fascists to the gallows and gibbet their tarred bodies in chains until they fall apart.”

Wearing masks to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, he wrote last month, is “a political statement” akin to “wearing the red ribbon when AIDS was a huge deal, and we were supposed to believe that you can have an epidemic without having casual transmission of a virus (sorry, in most areas of the world’s landmass outside a San Francisco bathhouse, butt sex is not considered ‘casual’).”
   9689. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 21, 2020 at 11:07 PM (#5977998)
9688 - Well, at least he understands COVID-19 as well he understands AIDS. Graduate of the Pat Robertson College of science knowleddge by any chance?
Not a terrible country while it lasted.
   9690. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 21, 2020 at 11:09 PM (#5977999)
9688 - Well, at least he understands COVID-19 as well he understands AIDS. Graduate of the Pat Robertson College of science knowleddge by any chance?
Nice country while it lasted.

ETA: Lindsey Graham is proof enough that it's common practice at the White House.
   9691. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: September 22, 2020 at 01:42 PM (#5978048)
Back home today after 4 days in Southwest Louisiana helping Mom clean up after Hurricane Laura once she had returned home earlier in the week. Thankfully, not a lot of structural damage to her house, but she needed a few trees taken down and having her back fence stood back up until it can be replaced in addition to some general maintenance inside the house. It would not surprise me for Calcasieu Parish to again become the national epicenter of new cases based on my small observational sample of mask usage in grocery stores being about 50/50 and almost non-existent among customers in a busy hardware store where employees were even only around 50/50.

My drive back to Dallas took me through large parts of very rural Southwest Louisiana and East Texas, where political signage on display would indicate an overwhelming Trump victory in 6 weeks as I would not be entirely sure anyone else was even running. Particularly popular was a sign/flag (including one flying subservient to only the Stars and Bars) reading TRUMP 2020 NO MORE BULLSHIT which got me thinking, "Are they saying Trump is going to stop his incessant bullshitting if re-elected?" because if they think Trump is putting a stop to someone else's bullshit while providing none of his own.... well..... bless their hearts.
   9692. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 22, 2020 at 02:39 PM (#5978055)
From the duh files via 538:

Out of those surveyed, 74 percent of economists said the U.S. would be in a better economic position now if lockdowns had been more aggressive at the beginning of the crisis. Among that camp, the most commonly cited reason was that early control over the virus would have allowed a smoother and more comprehensive return to economic activity later on. “More aggressive lockdowns would have [gotten] the country in a better position (health wise) as we head into fall and winter,” said Andrew Patton, a professor of economics and finance at Duke University.


Of course, there's more money to be made in a downturn if you have it to start with.
   9693. pikepredator Posted: September 22, 2020 at 02:49 PM (#5978058)
What sort of future could he have at that point? I mean, he was already married? Good thing the kids gave it to him.


What's worse is that all it says was "tested positive at the time of death" - he didn't actually die of COVID. More likely he died of acute respiratory failure coupled with a high fever, or something. I mean pretty much everybody dies of "heart stopped beating", right, they don't actually die of gunshot wounds or cancer or car crashes.

Hold the phone . . . I just realized COVID is just the tip of a vast conspiracy iceberg to blame the deaths of millions all sort of innocuous things, when in reality it's either blood loss, stopped breathing, or heart stoppage that account for almost 100% of all deaths.

I need to go make some YouTube videos pronto, the world needs to know the truth!
   9694. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 22, 2020 at 03:50 PM (#5978069)
Jennifer Wright @JenAshleyWright
Imagine if Republicans had moved on COVID as quickly as they're moving to replace RBG.
   9695. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 22, 2020 at 04:28 PM (#5978080)
NYTimes estimate for excess deaths to August 29 is 258,000. Correcting for their last-reported weeks over-dropoff, and adding in 3 more weeks to get to last Saturday, and you get about 280,000 to 285,000. A tad less than my 295,000 I estimated, but in the same range. Pretty much exactly within the 265,000-300,000 that the CDC's estimates imply (again, projected out to last Saturday).
   9696. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: September 22, 2020 at 04:46 PM (#5978085)
England is now going to close pubs and restaurants at 10pm nightly, which is going to be interesting for 8.15pm Premier League game kickoffs, where 10pm will be the last five minutes or so of the the matchup. I can't imagine too many crowds dispersing nonchalantly when asked when their team is clinging onto a lead in the 86th minute. Hospitalisation rates seem to be quadruple what they were a month or so ago, suggesting that - considering the NHS' minimal overhead for the average winter season - this is the best shot the UK has at a lockdown-free Christmas. (And after that, up go the borders with the EU . . .)
   9697. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 22, 2020 at 05:05 PM (#5978091)
England is now going to close pubs and restaurants at 10pm nightly, which is going to be interesting for 8.15pm Premier League game kickoffs, where 10pm will be the last five minutes or so of the the matchup. I can't imagine too many crowds dispersing nonchalantly when asked when their team is clinging onto a lead in the 86th minute.
Last 10-15 minutes with VAR!
   9698. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 22, 2020 at 05:11 PM (#5978092)
Last 10-15 minutes with VAR!
i thought they brexiteered to get rid of the vat.
   9699. puck Posted: September 22, 2020 at 08:51 PM (#5978130)
Boulder County CO added a graph to their Covid stats page to show how much of the spike was due to CU Boulder students.

Rolling 5 day average showing the recent spike

Positive or probable, CU vs non-CU

Boulder County has a population of around 325,000.

In the latest in Covid experiments, I guess we'll now see how much CU students mingle with the townies.

   9700. Hank Gillette Posted: September 22, 2020 at 09:51 PM (#5978149)
Boulder County CO added a graph to their Covid stats page to show how much of the spike was due to CU Boulder students.
It looks as though over 60% of their cases are people under 30, although all the deaths have been people 50+.
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