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Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Empty Stadium Sports Will Be Really Weird

So, with the very likely possibility that baseball and basketball — at minimum — will be played to empty stadiums, it begs the question: Will it be as fun?

And before you answer, think about it for a second. No crowd noise. No intensity that builds for the home team or against the away team. Yes, the scoreboard will tell the tale, but the pressure is cranked up when you have a building full of crazy fans screaming their lungs out.

I get that it’s a business and that the money’s at the ML level, but considering crowds, distance from population centers, and the pleasures of relaxed fandom, I’ve been thinking that we might just run some mLs instead.

Mayor Blomberg Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:17 AM | 10153 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, fans, stadiums

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   9701. Greg Pope Posted: September 22, 2020 at 09:51 PM (#5978151)
I mean pretty much everybody dies of "heart stopped beating", right, they don't actually die of gunshot wounds or cancer or car crashes.

I think that unless you actually get an injury to the brain (like getting shot in the head or falling from a 10-story building), then the actual cause of death is "lack of oxygen to the brain".
   9702. Hot Wheeling American Posted: September 22, 2020 at 10:20 PM (#5978161)
Is PreservedFish ok?
   9703. Lassus Posted: September 22, 2020 at 11:13 PM (#5978180)
Is that a real question? He is, spending time on expat BTF.
   9704. Hot Wheeling American Posted: September 22, 2020 at 11:19 PM (#5978183)
Yeah, just hadn’t seen him here in a while and he had been a big time poster here, so I was wondering, though could have phrased it better.
   9705. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 23, 2020 at 10:09 AM (#5978235)
We are probably close to caught up after the Labor Day slow week (when the useful idiots again decided the virus "over" due to the slowdown of reporting). That week had 53,000 deaths added to the rolls, probably 9000 or so fewer than expected. The last two weeks have had about 7000 or so combined more than expected by my very rough estimate, so we are either caught up (back to normal CDC lag for this virus year) or are pretty close to it.

While we seemed to have peaked the week ending 7/25, it really was kind of a plateau for about a month, which has been followed by a slow dropoff. As mentioned, it remains to be seen if we are about to enter a new rising phase, but seems quite possible.

week ending       week ending     weeks          total
date of           actual date     back           deaths
report            of death                       recorded

7/08              7/04            1              13,314 (post-July 4 report effect)
7/15              7/11            1              15,492
7/22              7/18            1              16,321
7/29              7/25            1              17.405
8/05              8/01            1              16,771
8/12              8/08            1              15,719
8/19              8/15            1              16,664
8/26              8/22            1              15,268
9/02              8/29            1              16,387
9/09              9/05            1              11,500 (approximate. post-Labor Day effect)
9/16              9/12            1              14,321 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/19            1              15,491

7/15              7/04            2              31,214 (post-July 4 effect)
7/22              7/11            2              40,259
7/29              7/18            2              40,694
8/05              7/25            2              40,144
8/12              8/01            2              39,459
8/19              8/08            2              39,979
8/26              8/15            2              39,372
9/02              8/22            2              38,041
9/09              8/29            2              34,320 (post-Labor Day)
9/16              9/12            2              33,560 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/12            2              36,423

7/22              7/04            3              48.439
7/29              7/11            3              50,387
8/05              7/18            3              50,855
8/12              7/25            3              51,263
8/19              8/01            3              51,702
8/26              8/08            3              51,037
9/02              8/15            3              50,579
9/09              8/22            3              48,804 (post-Labor Day effect)
9/16              8/29            3              46,945 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/05            3              47.160

7/29              7/04            4              52,489
8/05              7/11            4              54,123
8/12              7/18            4              55,035
8/19              7/25            4              56,189
8/26              8/01            4              56,033
9/02              8/08            4              55,950
9/09              8/15            4              55,145
9/16              8/22            4              53,771
9/23              8/29            4              52,810

8/05              7/04            5              54,117
8/12              7/11            5              56,200
8/19              7/18            5              57,391
8/26              7/25            5              58,427
9/02              8/01            5              58,446
9/09              8/08            5              58,445
9/16              8/15            5              57,692
9/23              8/22            5              56,502

8/12              7/04            6              55,737
8/19              7/11            6              57,560
8/26              7/18            6              58,659
9/02              7/25            6              59,898
9/09              8/01            6              59,742
9/16              8/08            6              59,942
9/23              8/15            6              59.562

8/19              7/04            7              56,735
8/26              7/11            7              58,493
9/02              7/18            7              59,747
9/09              7/25            7              60,919
9/16              8/01            7              60,803
9/23              8/08            7              60,950

8/26              7/04            8              57,746
9/02              7/11            8              59,256
9/09              7/18            8              60,585
9/16              7/25            8              61,931
9/23              8/01            8              61,383

9/02              7/04            9              58,176
9/09              7/11            9              59,943
9/16              7/18            9              61,542
9/23              7/25            9              62.350

9/09              7/04           10              58,608
9/16              7/11           10              60,739
9/23              7/18           10              61,934

9/16              7/04           11              59,058
9/23              7/11           11              61,029

9/23              7/04           12              59,206
   9706. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 23, 2020 at 10:29 AM (#5978239)
Yeah, just hadn’t seen him here in a while and he had been a big time poster here, so I was wondering, though could have phrased it better.
I was thinking the same thing the other day. Obviously the most likely answer is always "just busy with other stuff or taking a break," but you do wonder these days.
   9707. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 23, 2020 at 10:50 AM (#5978245)
While we seemed to have peaked the week ending 7/25, it really was kind of a plateau for about a month, which has been followed by a slow dropoff. As mentioned, it remains to be seen if we are about to enter a new rising phase, but seems quite possible.

If it's easy to pull the answer from your data, when do you project 2020 deaths to surpass the total deaths in 2019?
   9708. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 23, 2020 at 11:11 AM (#5978251)
There were about 2.85 million deaths in 2019, and so far (extrapolating out to today) there have been about 2.42 million. With 60,000 or so a week going forward, maybe more in winter, we would be estimated to get there in the second week of November. Due to delays in reporting it probably won't be acknowledged until December.

We're at about 15-16% extra starting in mid-February. If this continues we will be about 13-14% extra on the year as a whole, or 375,000 to 400,000 excess deaths. Obviously a lot, but that's the same as about the last 6.5 to 7 weeks of the year in a normal year.
   9709. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 23, 2020 at 11:13 AM (#5978252)
Thanks for tracking all this. I find your information really useful given the new... politicization of attributing deaths to viruses.
   9710. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 23, 2020 at 12:10 PM (#5978271)
The CDC seems to be estimating less than 10% of the country has so far been infected.

Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said a majority of Americans remain susceptible to Covid-19.

Speaking to the Senate Health Committee on Wednesday, Redfield said, “CDC is in the process of a very large, sequential study across the entire United States, measuring serology.”

“The preliminary results on the first round show that a majority of our nation – more than 90% of the population – remains susceptible,” he said.
“It varies in different geographic parts from states,” he said. “We’ll have that finalized and probably published in the next week or so.”

“But it does show that a majority of Americans are still susceptible to this virus,” Redfield said.


If we put the country at exactly 10% as of today, we would have an IFR of right around 1% using excess deaths. (280,000-300,000 now, plus another 30,000 to 50,000 over the next 4 to 6 weeks for those currently infected)
   9711. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 23, 2020 at 12:54 PM (#5978278)
I have tried to pretty much tune out all the political back-and-forth over COVID, so I apologize if this is a dumb question or has been addressed on previous pages:

This morning I was on a call with a client who I believe may be a Trumper, or at least Trump-tolerant. He was complaining about how, at least in Illinois, they test everyone who dies for COVID and then count it as a COVID death if the result is positive, regardless of whether "it was some gangbanger in Chicago who had his brains splattered on the sidewalk by a bullet." (As I said, he may be a Trumper.)

Is this actually a thing in the way they count deaths, or is it yet another Trumper disinformation talking point?
   9712. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 23, 2020 at 01:10 PM (#5978283)
Apparently it is not very common in most places, but can be done if desired. Here is a recent article about NY.

Cough, fever, chills — with fall fast on the way, symptoms alone won’t be useful in distinguishing Covid-19 from similar-looking cases of the flu. That means routinely testing for both viruses will be crucial — even, perhaps, after some patients have already died.

That will at least be true in New York, where officials recently announced a ramp-up in post-mortem testing for the coronavirus as well as the flu. Deaths linked to respiratory illnesses that weren’t confirmed before a person died are to be followed up with tests for both viruses within 48 hours, according to the new regulation.
...

The regulation doesn’t apply to all deaths — just those suspected of being linked to a respiratory illness.

That means the new rules on post-mortem testing probably won’t change coronavirus case numbers much, if at all. Since the announcement, made last Sunday, the Wadsworth state lab has not yet received a request to process a post-mortem test, Mr. Rhodes said.
...
A number of pathologists noted that while coronavirus testing for sick patients is just about ubiquitous in medical settings in other states, combination testing that includes the flu, including post-mortem testing, is not as common and may need to be considered.


Also, as far as I'm aware, pretty sure it is not true that everyone who is positive for COVID when they die counts as a virus death. A famous case is George Floyd (ruled a homicide, not a COVID death).
   9713. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 23, 2020 at 01:18 PM (#5978284)
I have tried to pretty much tune out all the political back-and-forth over COVID, so I apologize if this is a dumb question or has been addressed on previous pages:

This morning I was on a call with a client who I believe may be a Trumper, or at least Trump-tolerant. He was complaining about how, at least in Illinois, they test everyone who dies for COVID and then count it as a COVID death if the result is positive, regardless of whether "it was some gangbanger in Chicago who had his brains splattered on the sidewalk by a bullet." (As I said, he may be a Trumper.)

Is this actually a thing in the way they count deaths, or is it yet another Trumper disinformation talking point?

when someone says that "6 million jews didn't die in the holocaust", they don't mean it was 5.8 million.
   9714. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: September 23, 2020 at 01:26 PM (#5978286)
Yeah, I figured it was the usual lying. I'm not seeing anything about widespread post-mortem testing on the IDPH website. It looks like he was taking the Trumper "but 94% comorbidities!!" line to its (il)logical extreme.
   9715. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: September 23, 2020 at 01:42 PM (#5978289)
CDC continues to estimate around 200+ excess deaths a week in Michigan, even though all the reporting sites are only saying about 100 or less COVID deaths a week. So now they are under-counting worse than at the peak of the pandemic in the state? Or something else is happening?
   9716. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 23, 2020 at 02:07 PM (#5978295)
These are the actual excess death count (no lag adjustment at all) as listed by the CDC, weekly, from 7/4 - 9/5

182 104 85 108 169 84 226 110 98 71 = 1237 in 10 weeks, or 124 per week on average. This is without ANY lag adjustment, so the estimated numbers are certainly going to be higher, probably 100 per week on average more, unless Michigan is much better than the rest of the country with delayed reporting. That matches your 200+.

Actual deaths reported for weeks ending 7/18-9/17 is about 650 (2-week delay assumed for convenience), so only a little more than half the excess so far actually reported, and much less than the 225 per week or so indicated as estimated by the CDC. So yes, it seems they have gotten much worse about reporting deaths, or something else entirely is going on. This can't be chalked up to lag adjustments though, because the raw numbers are already almost double the reported numbers. It could be that there was something strange going on in prior years to depress the baseline, but that seems a little unlikely. Most likely is that Michigan is having major delays in reporting and there will be a big catch-up day at some point, like there was on September 9. Could be Michigan is just being much more picky about what a COVID death is now though, for political or other reasons, including because deaths are now arising in different types of counties (e.g., before mostly in urban areas and now not).

   9717. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 23, 2020 at 02:40 PM (#5978303)
Interesting that Michigan has come up. Denialists now in full swing claiming that all deaths in Michigan are cross-checked to those who have ever tested positive, and if they show up in both lists, it counts as a COVID death. Of course, this is completely wrong. Michigan cross-checks those who have COVID already listed as a "contributing factor" on their death certificate against the registry of known COVID cases. Then, if they are not already counted as a COVID death (which in most cases they probably would be, since COVID is listed as a contributing factor), they are added to the count.

The key difference is that COVID already had to be listed as a contributing factor on the death certificate, and that this person already didn't count as a covid death.


*Note on deaths (09/22/20): Regular reviews of death certificate data maintained in Vital Records reporting systems are conducted by MDHHS staff three times per week. As a part of this process, records that identify COVID-19 infection as a contributing factor to death are compared against all laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Michigan Disease Surveillance System (MDSS). If a death certificate is matched to a confirmed COVID-19 case and that record in the MDSS does not indicate the individual died, the MDSS record is updated to indicate the death and the appropriate local health department is notified. These matched deaths are then included with mortality information posted to the Michigan Coronavirus website. As a result of the most recent assessment, today’s data includes 3 additional deaths identified by this methodology.
   9718. Ron J Posted: September 23, 2020 at 02:50 PM (#5978306)
Interesting video on the logistical challenge of Delivering the Covid Vaccine

Wendover Productions does consistently good work. Highly recommended.
   9719. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 23, 2020 at 05:13 PM (#5978331)
Dr. Anthony Fauci challenges Sen. Rand Paul’s representation of herd immunity to COVID-19 in parts of the U.S.: “This happens with Senator Rand all the time...if you believe that 22% is herd immunity, I believe you’re alone in that.”

https://t.co/xjvdEeEay6
pic.twitter.com/RLJMvvM0BX

— ABC News (@ABC) September 23, 2020

   9720. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: September 23, 2020 at 07:32 PM (#5978344)
Re 9718: Thanks for this. It gives me hope.
   9721. Ron J Posted: September 23, 2020 at 07:45 PM (#5978345)
9721 This is the kind of thing the US can do better than anybody. I don't insist that they will or won't. Merely that tough logistical challenges are something that there's a track record of overcoming.
   9722. PreservedFish Posted: September 23, 2020 at 08:37 PM (#5978352)
Hello. Glad I happened to lurk here tonight.

All is well with me. The answer is that I was invited to the Discord chat site, dipped my toe in, and have ever since been enjoying my time over there, and don't really have time to contribute to two online communities at the same time, so have neglected this place.

Around the time I made the shift there was a very acrimonious thread on BTF about ... I don't remember, a baseball player that refused to kneel for the national anthem or something? It was a bitter and ugly flamewar, with many ugly opinions expressed, and it gave me kind of a sour feeling about BTF.

The Discord site, although explicitly dedicated to politics, is by contrast (and to my surprise) actually much chummier. More importantly, it seems to better facilitate off-topic talk, which has always been my favorite topic anyway. More music and food talk.

Given how moribund baseball talk has been here for years, and how little attention I've paid to baseball this year, I've just found myself wanting to go over there instead of here. The Discord community has its own issues, of course - there are a few famous BTF personalities that make one want to drive one's head into a wall - and maybe I'll get tired of it. But that's where I've been lately. I'm not here in an effort to proselytize or anything, but if someone wants an invite, feel free to email me through the BTF site. I think it works.

I still lurk this thread because of the uncommonly clear-eyed and rational commentary, by AuntBea and others.
   9723. PreservedFish Posted: September 23, 2020 at 08:52 PM (#5978354)
As for my coronavirus update: six months into this thing my entire county still has never had any evidence of community transmission. Fewer than 5 cumulative cases in my town. Mask adherence is very high. School is open 4 days a week, 1 day online, and they are taking everything very carefully. I expected cases to rise over the summer, with the influx of tourists, but they did not. Maine did a good job communicating expectations to tourists. We still feel safe seeing our parents and having reasonably distanced outings with other families. We've participated in every step of the lockdowns and new regulations, but at the same time the pandemic feels strangely distant. We still haven't forgotten that this could all change quickly, as it did in Northern Maine, a more remote area than we live in, where a single wedding turned into a superspreader event.

School re-opening has been a godsend - while the April was idyllic for us, to spend so much time together as a family, by July we were at each other's throats constantly.
   9724. BrianBrianson Posted: September 24, 2020 at 04:43 AM (#5978421)
@9711 - note also, the murder rate in the US is 0.005%/year, and the COVID death rate in the US is ~0.1% over the last year.

Indeed, Americans largely only die from the kinds of old age diseases that COVID is likely to exacerbate. Adding in the ~5% of murder victims who've had COVID would only change the number of COVID deaths by ~0.3%; you couldn't make a meaningful fudge out of it anyhow. Suicides might let you fudge it by 1%, accidents by ~3%. Those slight fudges wouldn't be worth your time.
   9725. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: September 24, 2020 at 06:22 AM (#5978423)
The UK's Office for National Statistics has published these 10 charts to illustrate the year in Covid-19 data.

It includes many of the same messages we've heard before, but I found the first chart particularly interesting, in that it demonstrates that there was no increase in excess deaths in January-February (suggesting that the virus was unlikely to be in wide circulation before March, or at least not having the same impact on mortality rates) and that, once Covid-related deaths are excluded, the excess death rate looks pretty normal in the short-term - indicating that, so far as we can tell from this position, the lockdown neither saved nor cost non-Covid lives in large numbers.

Since the impact on the UK's health services is likely to have hit cancer treatment and detection, as well as other matters of long-term treatment, however, I wouldn't be surprised at all for that picture to change.

   9726. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: September 24, 2020 at 07:56 AM (#5978427)
(Tough logistical challenges are) the kind of thing the US can do better than anybody.

Yes. This is why I remain cautiously optimistic...unlike some.
   9727. Tony S Posted: September 24, 2020 at 09:00 AM (#5978431)
Fewer than 5 cumulative cases in my town. Mask adherence is very high.


I remain at a loss as to why a simple message like this is resisted by so many in this country.

   9728. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 24, 2020 at 09:32 AM (#5978434)
There's talk about Manaus having been so infected that herd immunity became a very significant factor in slowing down the virus. Manauas is a city with a young population that may have had 0.2% or more of the entire population as excess deaths through late June, when the estimates of the total number infected were 50% or less. Put it together and you have 0.4% or more IFR. The age curve for the city is in the preprint, and for Manaus it shows only about 1% over 80, 2% more over 70, and 5% more over 60. Making only an adjustment for age (which is a bit suspect, but it is a place to start), you'd probably want to multiply that by 3.5 or so to match NYC (4% over 80, 6.5% more over 70, 10.5% more over 60), which would translate to an IFR of about 1.4%. So, well within the realm of possibility, and not really an indication that IFR is low.
   9729. pikepredator Posted: September 24, 2020 at 09:50 AM (#5978438)
This is why I remain cautiously optimistic...unlike some


I'd be more optimistic if Trump didn't immediately label Birx "pathetic" (like a petulant sixth-grader would) when she tells the truth, and if he didn't feel the mock Fauci any time he points out that things could be going better. The ongoing attempts to paper over the not-so-rosy truth in favor of a false narrative that doesn't match the facts and is killing tens of thousands . . . doesn't inspire optimism.
   9730. Lassus Posted: September 24, 2020 at 11:19 AM (#5978452)
I remain at a loss as to why a simple message like this is resisted by so many in this country.

Maybe RMc's new optimism will have him chime in.
   9731. Srul Itza Posted: September 24, 2020 at 01:00 PM (#5978480)
The ongoing attempts to paper over the not-so-rosy truth in favor of a false narrative that doesn't match the facts and is killing tens of thousands . . . doesn't inspire optimism.



But it does inspire RMc to parrot Trumpista talking points.
   9732. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 25, 2020 at 11:19 AM (#5978700)
The CDC's preliminary estimates have the highest seroprevalence for any state at 24%, and apparently few states above 15%.
   9733. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 25, 2020 at 11:42 AM (#5978704)
I haven’t been following the FL numbers as closely lately, since work has been busy and FL stopped making the data available in Excel format in early September (I don’t think there’s anything nefarious there — it’s still available in PDF format). But looking at things with a week left in September, my takeaways are:

1. Actual cases declined more quickly than I expected at first, but have flattened out more recently. I ran 3 scenarios when I did my analysis, FL has tracked pretty close to my middle scenario (with about 6% more cases than the middle scenario since July 22).

2. COVID deaths have been a bit lower than I would have expected given those case numbers. As of 9/23, I would have expected 14,100-14,700 fatalities but the actual number was 13,782. There had been 5,457 deaths already reported by the time I did my analysis, so I was ~5-10% high in terms of expected fatalities reported from that point until today.

3. It looks like this is driven by the fact that the CFRs for August cases are coming in lower than for June/July cases once you control for age. This may be due to better medical treatment or more testing identifying a higher proportion of cases, but I don’t know for certain.

4. Some of it also appears to be due to a slowdown in reporting in late August through Labor Day. Reported fatalities tracked below my estimates through most of August but since Labor Day they have tracked higher, implying a catch-up effect. For example, I would not have expected to still see days of 200+ deaths being reported this late in September, as we saw on Tuesday.

In any case, it looks like my estimates were directionally accurate but a bit high. It’s good that the fatality rates have trended down a bit, although as stated above, I do worry that some of that is due to a longer than normal reporting lag.
   9734. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 25, 2020 at 12:40 PM (#5978719)
Well that's convenient. I'd been watching this week's FL numbers and wishing Dave were still reporting. Thanks Dave!
   9735. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 25, 2020 at 02:38 PM (#5978747)
QAnon is a vast far-right conspiracy theory that claims a number of notable politicians and celebrities are actually devil-worshipping pedophiles running a global child sex ring with the goal of extracting an imaginary drug called “adrenochrome” that can only be produced by torturing children


when you put it like that ...


Originally the theory was that Hillary Clinton was molesting people in a basement because it came from the Podesta emails and all that, but the new generation just skip the Podesta emails and go straight for [the idea that] Justin Bieber is screaming for help in this ‘Yummy’ [music] video. He’s trying to tell us something about these [powerful] people, and it’s that they’re eating children and babies, and they’re using hot dogs or pizzas as symbols
   9736. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 25, 2020 at 04:20 PM (#5978781)
Sweden, where a shutdown-free pandemic response prompted a global debate, is seeing another wave of covid-19 cases, with the country’s state epidemiologist warning this week that it was heading in the “wrong direction” as winter approaches.

Sweden’s public health body recorded 554 new covid-19 cases Thursday — the highest since early July — and 417 on Friday, according to its online tracking tool, capping off what epidemiologist Anders Tegnell had warned would be a “record week” for new cases.


Oh, man, poor Sen "Dr" Rand.
   9737. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 25, 2020 at 05:28 PM (#5978802)
in related news:
adam22 @adam22
Ron Paul just had a stroke while on live stream. Holy ####

https://twitter.com/adam22/status/1309545416237621249
   9738. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 25, 2020 at 06:21 PM (#5978811)
But the nature of that conspiracy plays very differently in 2020 than it did in 2013, and the results are catastrophic. (Spoilers for both versions of Utopia follow.) As the characters discover, the reason the comic book contains clues to things that haven’t yet happened is that it was drawn by one of the architects of a plan designed to stave off planetary collapse as the population rises and the fossil fuels run out.
...
it’s impossible to enjoy a story where the heroes convince themselves that shadowy forces have manufactured a phony pandemic to trick people into taking a dangerous vaccine when those exact beliefs are helping to kill hundreds of thousands of Americans
   9739. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: September 25, 2020 at 10:05 PM (#5978854)
Sweden, where a shutdown-free pandemic response prompted a global debate

I hate this reporting. It sounds like they did absolutely nothing.

They actually:

It closed universities and banned gatherings of more than 50 people, including sports events, and discouraged domestic travel. But most bars, restaurants, schools, salons, and stores were allowed to remain open, with largely voluntary social distancing

And their GDP got hammered basically the same as their neighbors anyways.
   9740. MY PAIN IS NOT A HOLIDAY (CoB). Posted: September 26, 2020 at 12:15 AM (#5978881)
‘It’s like every red flag’: Trump-ordered HHS ad blitz raises alarms

The health department is moving quickly on a highly unusual advertising campaign to "defeat despair" about the coronavirus, a $300 million-plus effort that was shaped by a political appointee close to President Donald Trump and executed in part by close allies of the official, using taxpayer funds.

The ad blitz, described in some budget documents as the "Covid-19 immediate surge public advertising and awareness campaign," is expected to lean heavily on video interviews between administration officials and celebrities, who will discuss aspects of the coronavirus outbreak and address the Trump administration's response to the crisis, according to six individuals with knowledge of the campaign who described its workings to POLITICO.

Senior administration officials have already recorded interviews with celebrities like actor Dennis Quaid and singer CeCe Winans, and the Health and Human Services Department also has pursued television host Dr. Mehmet Oz and musician Garth Brooks for roles in the campaign.


Seriously, they should have gone for Randy, not Dennis. If there's anything that 2020 needs, it's Star Whackers ...
   9741. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 26, 2020 at 02:56 AM (#5978894)
I hate this reporting. It sounds like they did absolutely nothing.

I mostly hate it and have regularly corrected it, but In honor of dr Rand, I was happy to let it go this time, though I hope it didn't circuituously lead to Pappy Paul's stroke (or was it a Trump imitation?).

Seriously, they should have gone for Randy, not Dennis. If there's anything that 2020 needs, it's Star Whackers ...

Hell, they're getting the future Ronald Reagan
   9742. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 26, 2020 at 09:59 AM (#5978907)
Q: If the American public knows what an EUA is, it’s because of two very significant failures in recent months. There was an EUA for hydroxychloroquine and for convalescent plasma—the therapy in which they use blood from people who recovered from COVID-19. And they turned out to not really be effective. In this particular case, there could be mistrust of the issuing of an EUA.

A: I think you can only imagine there would be mistrust. The job of the FDA is to stand between pharmaceutical companies and the American public to make sure that the American public doesn’t receive products that are either ineffective or unsafe. In this case, they received both. So the FDA did fail us, twice.

But I think there are two things that stand in defense of a vaccine. One is the Data and Safety Monitoring Board. Vaccines are not treatments—they’re preventives. And you’re giving them mostly to healthy people. That’s different than giving hydroxychloroquine or convalescent plasma to people who were in hospital. And secondly, Stephen Hahn, who’s the FDA commissioner, has said that he will rely on the FDA vaccine advisory committee. Both the Data and Safety Monitoring Board and the vaccine advisory committee are composed primarily of people who don’t have government affiliations and don’t have any associations with the pharmaceutical industry. They typically have historically always given unvarnished, honest thoughts about how they see these vaccines. So I think as long as those two systems are in place we will have what has happened for us for the last 70 years with vaccines: clear evidence of safety and efficacy data that this vaccine is going to be a value.

Q: So to your mind, a face mask is more effective at this point than a vaccine?

A: Yes. I think a face mask and social distancing mean that you are very, very unlikely to come in contact with the small droplets that contain the virus. Therefore, you’re not going to be infected. If you choose not to wear a mask, then you might be. Maybe you’re thinking, It’s OK because I’m vaccinated, but I think the best of vaccines will be, let’s say, 75 percent effective against moderate to severe disease. I think Dr. Fauci would be happy with that. But that means that one out of every four people who is vaccinated could still get moderate to severe disease, the kind of disease that causes you go to the hospital or go to the morgue.

No vaccine is 100 percent effective And I think when you wear a mask and you stand apart from somebody, that’s much closer to 100 percent effective than a vaccine will be.
   9743. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 26, 2020 at 06:37 PM (#5979023)
It appears now that cases started leveling off 2-3 weeks ago, and might be on the rise now. It's partly but not solely a matter of testing more. Hospitalizations appear to have started leveling off a week or so ago. If we follow the earlier form, deaths should start leveling off as well in a couple weeks. Maybe 2 more down weeks, three at most probably unless this trend reverses very soon.

Just in time for winter.
   9744. mike f Posted: September 26, 2020 at 08:26 PM (#5979032)
And for DeSantis to declare we’re in phase 3 and all restaurants and bars can go to 100% capacity.
   9745. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 26, 2020 at 11:37 PM (#5979083)
Apparently channeling the Beastie Boys, DeSantis has signed a students' Bill of Rights to Party.

That's right, they now have got a License to Ill.

(Not mine, a Twitter joke.)
   9746. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 27, 2020 at 12:01 PM (#5979119)
Nobel laureate (Levitt) apologizes for getting excess deaths hopelessly wrong (three weeks after it became baltantly obviously but still better late than never).

Yom Kippur is a day of reckoning & atonement. US excess death is tricky due to delays I was warned about. covid_weeex seems to trend to baseline a month later than I predicted on 25 Jul. I was wrong & apologize.

I have learned so much & hope we can all be wiser now.


Seems like a good apology!

But is it? He originally said that, in late July, that excess deaths would be 0 as of late August. This turned out to be obviously wrong in early September, but Levitt doubled down on September 10, and has finally corrected himself now after the data lag corrections have become too impossible to ignore each week. Now, he is doubling down yet again, by claiming that excess deaths will go to 0 "a month later than originally predicted", i.e., around late September which is right about now. This is flatly contradicted by all available data, and will be eliminated as a possibility in about two to three weeks, when we have most of the excess death data for this week.

It never ends with these guys. I said years ago on this site about a famous political prognosticator, who was continually wrong in his predictions, that making accurate predictions was only a very minor consideration for him. The main goal was to influence current policy by "predicting" in a way that always favored the desired course of action. In fact, these are not predictions in any meaningful sense of the word, they are advocacy for certain political and societal approaches, that for the most part, are not concerned with whether they match up with reality. The consequences for being proven wrong in the future are minimal compared to the advocacy gain today. We've seen this over and over and over again with the coronavirus (which, coincidentally, is now being called "over" for at least the third time.

   9747. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 27, 2020 at 03:12 PM (#5979155)
Georgia health officials have decided to withhold information about coronavirus infections at each school, saying the public has no legal right to information about outbreaks that the state is investigating.

The Georgia Department of Public Health started requiring weekly reports from the schools last month and initially said it might share the information with the public. The decision not to reveal the number of COVID-19 case counts and related quarantines and “clusters” means the only recourse for parents and teachers trying to gauge the risk is the willingness of their local school system to publicize its own data.
...
In mid-September, the agency agreed to produce the data, but this week reversed itself
   9748. Lassus Posted: September 28, 2020 at 08:12 AM (#5979316)
Maybe you’re thinking, It’s OK because I’m vaccinated, but I think the best of vaccines will be, let’s say, 75 percent effective against moderate to severe disease. I think Dr. Fauci would be happy with that. But that means that one out of every four people who is vaccinated could still get moderate to severe disease, the kind of disease that causes you go to the hospital or go to the morgue.

No vaccine is 100 percent effective And I think when you wear a mask and you stand apart from somebody, that’s much closer to 100 percent effective than a vaccine will be.
I think this figure sounds like one dude's editorial READ ME READ ME horseshit.
   9749. Lassus Posted: September 28, 2020 at 08:39 AM (#5979321)
Maybe that's harsh, but it sounded really negative. Maybe 75% is all we'll get I guess.
   9750. BrianBrianson Posted: September 28, 2020 at 08:56 AM (#5979323)
Yeah, I had no idea how effective vaccines actually are. It's surprisingly tough to dig out what should be the obvious first question. It looks like Polio vaccines are 95-99% effective, the rabies vaccine is ~97% effective, the smallpox vaccine is ~95% effective, yellow fever is ~100% effective (seriously, it's tough to estimate, but probably ~99.99999% effective), cholera is 50%~60% effective, typhus is maybe ~75% (but, with wide uncertainties), influenza is ~50% ...

So, the best vaccines are, in effect, completely effective, and the worst are ~50%. I think it's perhaps not crazy to think the expected effacacity could be ~75% (though if everyone gets vaccinated, the effect is much stronger, yes, since you're 75% less likely to get it if you're exposed, but you'd also be less likely to be exposed, since other people also will be less likely to have it.
   9751. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 28, 2020 at 09:09 AM (#5979328)
I think 75% would allow life to go back to normal for the vast majority of people (once you saw cases decline as a result of the vaccine). If you were a high risk person you might still take additional precautions, especially until the cases were basically eliminated.
   9752. Ben Broussard Ramjet Posted: September 28, 2020 at 09:30 AM (#5979330)
Self-described 'long and nerdy' Twitter thread on different types of vaccine technology and where the current candidates for Covid-19 look in the near-term.

EDIT: Notes that some vaccines are less effective among the elderly, and that short-term side-effects (particularly fever) seem to occur more often in children.
   9753. Lassus Posted: September 28, 2020 at 10:10 AM (#5979337)
Coronavirus vaccine: Johnson & Johnson jab shows response in 98% of test participants
Researchers said 98 per cent of participants in the study whose data was available had neutralising antibodies, which help the body fight off pathogens, a month after they received the vaccine.

The vaccine is unique in that it is delivered in a single shot, rather than in two doses. The reduced time needed to deliver the vaccine could simply its distribution.

The report written based on the trial, which was released on the medical website medRxiv, has not been peer reviewed, according to Reuters.

Nearly 1,000 healthy adults participated in the clinical trial, which began after Johnson & Johnson saw that the vaccine provided strong immune protection when tested on monkeys.
   9754. mike f Posted: September 28, 2020 at 10:27 AM (#5979340)
   9755. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: September 28, 2020 at 06:39 PM (#5979465)
But it does inspire RMc to parrot Trumpista talking points.

*snort*

The closer we get to the election, the more I dislike Trump. (And the more I hope he wins, just to tick your kind off!)

Apparently channeling the Beastie Boys, DeSantis has signed a students' Bill of Rights to Party.

Reading the Beastie Boys Book; made me go back and listen to Paul's Boutique for the first time in 30 years. Still great.
   9756. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 28, 2020 at 07:26 PM (#5979471)
[CDC chief, Dr. Robert Redfield is] not very happy about Dr. Scott Atlas, a Hoover Institute fellow with no public health expertise that the White House brought on in August to advocate a “herd immunity” approach—which is just as bad an idea as it sounds.

Atlas was specifically brought on at Trump’s request to provide alternative counsel to Fauci and White House Coronavirus Task Force chief Dr. Deborah Birx, according to the Post. Fauci said on Monday that the U.S. needs to “double down” on social distancing and lockdown measures, while CNN reported last week Birx has been so wary of the White House and Atlas’s efforts to drop pandemic control measures that she has considered tendering her resignation. Birx is now on the road gathering ground-level reports on the virus, providing an opportunity for Atlas to win more influence. Fauci told CNN the task force is meeting less often.

   9757. Random Transaction Generator Posted: September 28, 2020 at 08:59 PM (#5979481)
The closer we get to the election, the more I dislike Trump. (And the more I hope he wins, just to tick your kind off!)


Torch your own country to own the libs? That's prime MAGAt, right there.
   9758. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 28, 2020 at 09:19 PM (#5979483)
Torch your own country to own the libs? That's prime MAGAt, right there.

that's some cancerous #### right there. if only there was some way to remove the cancer ...

9755. Starring Bradley Scotchman as RMc Posted: September 28, 2020 at 06:39 PM (#5979465)
[ Ignored Comment ]
   9759. Dr. Vaux Posted: September 28, 2020 at 09:27 PM (#5979485)
Yup, ignoring people makes them not exist.

Lucky for me, I don't mind his posts or yours. Of course, you certainly have the right to ignore whoever you want. (Though I understand that the live and let live philosophy is now considered oppression in some circles.)
   9760. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 28, 2020 at 10:10 PM (#5979487)
Yup, ignoring people makes them not exist.

clearly not, since someone else quoteposted it.
Lucky for me, I don't mind his posts or yours. Of course, you certainly have the right to ignore whoever you want. (Though I understand that the live and let live philosophy is now considered oppression in some circles.)

some people just want the trains to run on time.
   9761. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: September 29, 2020 at 06:33 AM (#5979499)

Reading the Beastie Boys Book; made me go back and listen to Paul's Boutique for the first time in 30 years. Still great.


You gave up on listening to one of the best albums of it's time after a little over a year?
   9762. Lassus Posted: September 29, 2020 at 10:19 AM (#5979516)
The closer we get to the election, the more I dislike Trump. (And the more I hope he wins, just to tick your kind off!)
Torch your own country to own the libs? That's prime MAGAt, right there.


RMc is also a great dismantling of how the libs are responsible, the libs made this happen. No, you're just petty and spiteful.
   9763. Srul Itza Posted: September 29, 2020 at 12:33 PM (#5979544)
NFL now joining the real world: 8 positive tests for the Tennessee Tuxedos.
   9764. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 29, 2020 at 02:15 PM (#5979573)
You gave up on listening to one of the best albums of it's time after a little over a year?


The libs made him do it.
   9765. Srul Itza Posted: September 29, 2020 at 11:37 PM (#5979711)
Is nobody going to talk about how Trump dismantled Biden tonight?
   9766. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2020 at 12:21 AM (#5979718)
I don't know, man, Trump's betting odds went down, and are at the lowest they've been in a while. Immediate new polls and articles do not seem favorable to Trump at all. Not particularly favorable to Biden either, but Trump especially seems not to have fared very well.

Remember also, Trump is behind in the polls and even betting odds right now. Battling to a draw doesn't really help him.

(I didn't watch the debate.)
   9767. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 30, 2020 at 12:40 AM (#5979720)
(I didn't watch the debate.)
great decision.
   9768. BrianBrianson Posted: September 30, 2020 at 01:06 AM (#5979721)
This is the Coronavirus thread, buddy. Politics thread was thrown into the depths of hell, for reasons.

I understand the NHL's season actually went very well for COVID management. My boys didn't win, however, so I'm still pro throwing Bettman into the depths of hell, as well.
   9769. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 30, 2020 at 01:57 AM (#5979724)
I only watched about half the debate and don't claim to represent the average swing voter, but it didn't really seem like anyone dismantled anyone. Trump came off badly in his demeanor and on a number of issues, but Biden missed a few opportunities to put him away. I think Trump made the mistake of setting the bar too low for his opponent with all of his pre-debate bluster -- in a way, Biden may have won simply by showing the country that he's not an addled dementia patient.
   9770. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2020 at 10:50 AM (#5979745)
Back to the coronavirus. In a sign of how much the thread has slowed down, this is the second weekly update on the same page.

Now we are completely caught up from the Labor Day effect, so are back to a "normal" CDC lag. 53,000 deaths the week of Labor Day was maybe 9000 to 10,000 below expected. The last 3 weeks have erased that deficit completely, so it's a good week to take stock of where we are. Superficially it seems we may have hit the bottom and on our way back up again, but due to the catch-up of reporting after Labor Day it's probably too early to say that for sure. Hospitalizations seem to be on a slow rise now though, so it could easily be true.

                  week ending     weeks          total
Date of           actual date     back           deaths
report            of death                       recorded

7/08              7/04            1              13,314 (post-July 4 report effect)
7/15              7/11            1              15,492
7/22              7/18            1              16,321
7/29              7/25            1              17.405
8/05              8/01            1              16,771
8/12              8/08            1              15,719
8/19              8/15            1              16,664
8/26              8/22            1              15,268
9/02              8/29            1              16,387
9/09              9/05            1              11,500 (approximate. post-Labor Day effect)
9/16              9/12            1              14,321 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/19            1              15,491
9/30              9/26            1              16,957 

7/15              7/04            2              31,214 (post-July 4 effect)
7/22              7/11            2              40,259
7/29              7/18            2              40,694
8/05              7/25            2              40,144
8/12              8/01            2              39,459
8/19              8/08            2              39,979
8/26              8/15            2              39,372
9/02              8/22            2              38,041
9/09              8/29            2              34,320 (post-Labor Day)
9/16              9/12            2              33,560 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/12            2              36,423
9/30              9/19            2              38,746

7/22              7/04            3              48.439
7/29              7/11            3              50,387
8/05              7/18            3              50,855
8/12              7/25            3              51,263
8/19              8/01            3              51,702
8/26              8/08            3              51,037
9/02              8/15            3              50,579
9/09              8/22            3              48,804 (post-Labor Day effect)
9/16              8/29            3              46,945 (lingering post-Labor Day effect)
9/23              9/05            3              47.160
9/30              9/12            3              48,073

7/29              7/04            4              52,489
8/05              7/11            4              54,123
8/12              7/18            4              55,035
8/19              7/25            4              56,189
8/26              8/01            4              56,033
9/02              8/08            4              55,950
9/09              8/15            4              55,145
9/16              8/22            4              53,771
9/23              8/29            4              52,810
9/30              9/05            4              52,108

8/05              7/04            5              54,117
8/12              7/11            5              56,200
8/19              7/18            5              57,391
8/26              7/25            5              58,427
9/02              8/01            5              58,446
9/09              8/08            5              58,445
9/16              8/15            5              57,692
9/23              8/22            5              56,502
9/30              8/29            5              55,288

8/12              7/04            6              55,737
8/19              7/11            6              57,560
8/26              7/18            6              58,659
9/02              7/25            6              59,898
9/09              8/01            6              59,742
9/16              8/08            6              59,942
9/23              8/15            6              59.562
9/30              8/22            6              58,092

8/19              7/04            7              56,735
8/26              7/11            7              58,493
9/02              7/18            7              59,747
9/09              7/25            7              60,919
9/16              8/01            7              60,803
9/23              8/08            7              60,950
9/30              8/15            7              60,819

8/26              7/04            8              57,746
9/02              7/11            8              59,256
9/09              7/18            8              60,585
9/16              7/25            8              61,931
9/23              8/01            8              61,383
9/30              8/08            8              61,795

9/02              7/04            9              58,176
9/09              7/11            9              59,943
9/16              7/18            9              61,542
9/23              7/25            9              62.350
9/30              8/01            9              61,740

9/09              7/04           10              58,608
9/16              7/11           10              60,739
9/23              7/18           10              61,934
9/30              7/25           10              62,574

9/16              7/04           11              59,058
9/23              7/11           11              61,029
9/30              7/18           11              62,107

9/23              7/04           12              59,206
9/30              7/11           12              61,184

9/30              7/04           13              59,301
   9771. BrianBrianson Posted: September 30, 2020 at 11:15 AM (#5979748)
Uhm, Bea, do you mean 50k deaths per month?
   9772. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2020 at 11:49 AM (#5979754)
These are total death figures (not excess), so it's actually 53,000 total deaths that were reported in the week that included Labor day (Thursday before to Wednesday after). The following three weeks have been 63,000+, 65,000+, and 64,000+, for an average a little over 64,000.

For reference, the expected number for late August and early September is a little over 52,000 per week.
   9773. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2020 at 12:21 PM (#5979756)
Excess deaths per 1000 people, projected out through the end of this week (10/3/2020). A rough estimate, as always, due to all the reporting lag. Probably about 18 states now have at least 1 excess death per 1000 people.

New York          2.10
New Jersey        2.05
D.C.              1.80
Louisiana         1.65
Mississippi       1.65
Connecticut       1.60

Arizona           1.30
Delaware          1.25
Michigan          1.20
Massachusetts     1.20
South Carolina    1.15
Alabama           1.10
Florida           1.10
Maryland          1.05
Illinois          1.05
Georgia           1.00
Rhode Island      1.00
Texas             1.00
   9774. Srul Itza Posted: September 30, 2020 at 12:46 PM (#5979767)
(I didn't watch the debate.)


Neither did I. ;-)

   9775. Mayor Blomberg Posted: September 30, 2020 at 01:29 PM (#5979782)
Appalachian State (Boone, NC) recorded its first student COVID death today.

(Wouldn't have watched the "sh1tshow" [--Dana Bash] anyway, but happy to have been teaching.)
   9776. bunyon Posted: September 30, 2020 at 02:45 PM (#5979828)
The App State student was a healthy 19 year old before contracting COVID-19 on campus (well, he was a student on campus, not sure where he got it).

I've wondered if this will change our approach. We're in spring planning at the moment and doing well. I'm certainly in far greater danger going to the store than being on campus. Students are wearing masks and distancing. Parties are small and quiet and less frequent than at the start. There is definitely a group feeling that we can do it.

But having a student die 70 miles away underscores that it's not a game and that students, while not a high risk are not guaranteed health and recovery if they contract the disease. I suspect we'll continue on but I'm sure it created a stir in the administration.
   9777. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 30, 2020 at 03:22 PM (#5979855)
Florida reported 173 deaths today, making that 704 for the past week. That's the third week in a row that they were above where I would have expected based on the case numbers, after a number of weeks being below my forecasts. It looks like there was simply a longer reporting lag beginning in mid-August for whatever reason -- maybe a bunch of people were on vacation then, who knows? But since they're still reporting deaths from late July and early August this late in September, it seems like the CFR for August cases will probably turn out to be pretty close to the June and July CFRs, maybe a bit lower -- but just reported over a longer period of time.

If I have time I'll try to dig in a little bit more in the coming days.
   9778. Lassus Posted: September 30, 2020 at 03:35 PM (#5979871)
My two small snooty school case study shows good control. Vassar with 6 active cases, and Hamilton the star with ZERO at any point since the start of the school year. (Granted, the latter is in the middle of goddamned nowhere, my backyard.)
   9779. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: September 30, 2020 at 03:46 PM (#5979877)
   9780. AuntBea odeurs de parfum de distance sociale Posted: September 30, 2020 at 04:21 PM (#5979906)
That is a very interesting study. Regardless of how you feel about partial herd immunity, it seems abundantly clear by now that behavior can make a huge difference in transmission rates, between having the virus peter out, never really take off, or explode. It makes a lot more sense that transmission rates can be wildly different in different locales if they are mainly driven by small minority of superspreader activities rather than by every interaction between any two people.
   9781. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: September 30, 2020 at 05:20 PM (#5979956)

I did a summer program at Hamilton College when I was in high school. I remember it being a lovely campus.
   9782. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 30, 2020 at 05:26 PM (#5979959)
there have not been many things in 2020 that make me hopeful for the future (or the present, for that matter), but seeing jim ####### gaffigan turn into che p. robespierre is definitely around the top of that fictional list
Jim Gaffigan @JimGaffigan

An interesting theory of why Trump doesn’t denounce white supremacy is he a racist pig and nobody with any sense of decency should support or vote for him. #Debate2020 ##debates I’m so embarrassed he is the President
   9783. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 30, 2020 at 06:23 PM (#5979970)

Aaron Rupar @atrupar
"In Europe, they live, they have forest cities, they're called forest cities. They maintain their forest, they manage their forest. I was w/ the head of a major country, it's a forest city. He said, 'Sir, we have trees that are far more - they ignite much easier than California'"
   9784. Adam M Posted: September 30, 2020 at 06:58 PM (#5979978)
che p. robespierre


What does the p. stand for?
   9785. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 30, 2020 at 07:49 PM (#5979987)
What does the p. stand for?
co-founder of the black panther party, huey p. newton.
   9786. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 30, 2020 at 07:56 PM (#5979992)
I did a summer program at Hamilton College when I was in high school. I remember it being a lovely campus.


Hamilton College has the kind of classic-looking central campus that TV and film directors use as a 10-second establishing shot to indicate "COLLEGE" to the audience, before cutting to a scene inside a room.

However, I think they absorbed another college a few decades ago with brutalist concrete buildings. So the entirety of the campus is a little schizo. But I will defer to Lassus on this.
   9787. ramifications of an exciting 57i66135 Posted: September 30, 2020 at 08:39 PM (#5980010)
The Onion @TheOnion
Stunned Pundits Criticize Trump For Refusing To Denounce His Base
https://bit.ly/2HKTjBy
   9788. Jay Z Posted: September 30, 2020 at 10:16 PM (#5980049)
The App State student was a healthy 19 year old before contracting COVID-19 on campus (well, he was a student on campus, not sure where he got it).

I've wondered if this will change our approach.


Actually, he was taking all of his classes online. So how do you change the approach to that?
   9789. Srul Itza Posted: September 30, 2020 at 10:27 PM (#5980052)
It's a day for bad college news:


A University of Hawaii West Oahu student has died after contracting coronavirus.

Jezreel Lowie B. Juan died on Friday, the university said in a statement.

Juan had transferred to the West Oahu campus in 2019 as a junior after attending Honolulu Community College. A university spokeswoman today said they did not have Juan’s age or hometown.

....

The statement said Juan was not on campus and did not expose the university community to the virus.



It's not that this is a campus thing that concerns me. It is that we are talking about young people, who are not supposed to have this happen.

I mean, 26 seniors died at the Yukio Okutsu State Veterans Home in Hilo, but you expect to hear about these nursing home catastrophes, they are depressingly common.

But college kids? Not supposed to happen.
   9790. Jay Z Posted: September 30, 2020 at 11:20 PM (#5980085)
I mean, 26 seniors died at the Yukio Okutsu State Veterans Home in Hilo, but you expect to hear about these nursing home catastrophes, they are depressingly common.

But college kids? Not supposed to happen.


They're connected. They're both related to community spread.

The USA is at 200,000+ Covid-19 deaths and counting. The vast number of those are going to be seniors and/or comorbidities. A small number will be the young and healthy.

But the more seniors that die, the more young people that die (in lesser proportion.) It's just math.
   9791. bunyon Posted: September 30, 2020 at 11:22 PM (#5980086)
There are a LOT of college kids, Srul. If they all get it, quite a few will die.

But sort of in keeping with the LA Times article above, our contact tracing suggests most of our cases are from “large” gatherings. Dining halls, classes, and dorm neighbors aren’t a problem. Maskless parties and roommates are.

I had missed that the App State student was fully online.
   9792. BrianBrianson Posted: October 01, 2020 at 12:55 AM (#5980117)

But college kids? Not supposed to happen.


Why not? The mortality rate for college kids is quite low, enough that it's hard to measure, but I think it's around 0.1% And, as noted, there are a lot of college age kids.
   9793. Jay Z Posted: October 01, 2020 at 02:20 AM (#5980131)
This is CDC IFR Data:
0-19 years: 0.0003% 3 per 1,000,000 infections
20-49 years: 0.02% 2 per 10,000 infections
50-69 years: 0.5% 5 per 1,000 infections
70+ years: 5.4% 54 per 1,000 infections

Swiss study:
5-9 years: 0.0016%
10-19 years: 0.00032%
20-49 years: 0.0092%
50-64 years: 0.14%
65+ years: 5.6%
All: 0.64%

It's all around the same. Typically 40 and above is where it starts to take off. We don't know total number of infected of course, case numbers are usually crappy.

   9794. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 01, 2020 at 03:12 AM (#5980133)
Yeah, my sense is that the IFR is 5-10x higher for people in their 80s than for people in their 60s. And it’s 5-10x higher for 60s than 40s. For people in their 20s the fatality rate is de minimus, but if you get enough people infected there will be a few deaths.
   9795. Lassus Posted: October 01, 2020 at 08:12 AM (#5980138)
However, I think they absorbed another college a few decades ago with brutalist concrete buildings. So the entirety of the campus is a little schizo. But I will defer to Lassus on this.

Good memmory! Kirkland College was built across the street in some available woods as a woman's college. The 1968 ("A few decades" for old people, maybe - :-) ) main modern brutalist building in full effect in the Wiki article. They ended up merging after a lot of legal battles in 1978. Definitely a pretty place, their US News ranking has shot up a lot in the last couple of decades. They were however #2 after Brown in the 1980 Preppy Handbook list for top preppy colleges.

We hung out at Hamilton to play pool and gawk at girls when I was in high school. My wife's father was hired by Kirkland College in 1971 as an art teacher and professor and was only last year managed to be forced out into retirement. Big baseball fan, used to watch the Boston Braves.
   9796. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 01, 2020 at 08:34 AM (#5980141)
We hung out at Hamilton to play pool and gawk at girls when I was in high school.

That sounds like more fun than the 90% male computer science class I took there during that summer in high school :)

(Actually, the class was awesome and it was a great group of guys. We played a lot of soccer when we weren’t in class, and there were a decent number of girls in some of the other summer classes on campus.)
   9797. Lassus Posted: October 01, 2020 at 08:40 AM (#5980142)
Did you walk into town at all? (I didn't live there, I was 10 miles out.) And then have to walk BACK UP THE HILL HA HA HA HA.

If I may divert from death for a moment, what year and from where did you arrive?
   9798. Lassus Posted: October 01, 2020 at 09:34 AM (#5980156)
Speaking of locality, I know this is happening everywhere and is not anything close to any kind of unique stupidity, but perhaps the commonality is worthy of note: Dozens exposed, 9 test positive in COVID-19 cluster in Oneida County
The first case, whom the health department refers to as adult one in family A, had started showing symptoms Sept. 16, she said, but continued to go out into public, making a trip to the Department of Motor Vehicles on Sept. 24, she said.

He also continued to attend worship services at Bethel Baptist Church in Prospect, participate in church activities and act as an assistant coach for a youth football team, Picente said.
The church and the coach of the football team, which practices at the Northern Community Sports Complex in Holland Patent, have refused to cooperate with the county’s investigation, Ellis said. Instead of providing health department workers with a list of names, they referred them to their lawyers, she said.
Dumb, selfish, pathetic, imbecilic motherfuckers.
   9799. bunyon Posted: October 01, 2020 at 09:45 AM (#5980157)
A lot to consider. It fits pretty well with what we're observing on campus. And suggests we're one stupid bad day from disaster.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/?fbclid=IwAR2t3jdfxw-yoR_X292njm-iTMgwSug3Ay4V5UbLnygBMuKiOrXLzjQYaIA
   9800. Lassus Posted: October 01, 2020 at 10:29 AM (#5980169)
flip

Great article, bunyon -
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