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Friday, December 09, 2011

ESPN: Crasnick: Rays sign Moore for 5/14

Electric Boogalongoria.

The Tampa Bay Rays have reached agreement with rookie pitcher Matt Moore on a guaranteed five-year, $14 million contract, according to a baseball source.

The deal includes multiple club options and could extend to eight years for a guaranteed $37.5 million and buy out two years of Moore’s free agency, the source said. It includes escalator clauses based on innings pitched and games started that could raise the overall value to $40 million.

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 09, 2011 at 04:38 PM | 64 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. Joey B. is counting the days to Trea Turner Posted: December 09, 2011 at 04:47 PM (#4011434)

Wow! This is probably going to be the biggest bargain in the game for the next five years.

2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 09, 2011 at 04:49 PM (#4011441)

Wow! This is probably going to be the biggest bargain in the game for the next five years.

Or he blows out his arm.

3. Joey B. is counting the days to Trea Turner Posted: December 09, 2011 at 04:52 PM (#4011446)

Or he blows out his arm.

He could blow out his arm, miss two entire seasons, and it would still probably be a really good deal for the Rays.

4. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: December 09, 2011 at 04:52 PM (#4011447)

Is buying out arb years really that new of an idea?

5. Greg K Posted: December 09, 2011 at 04:55 PM (#4011450)

Is buying out arb years really that new of an idea?

Honest question, how often has it been done 9 innings into a career?

6. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 09, 2011 at 04:55 PM (#4011451)

The bargain in years 1-3 is pretty much negligible - he'd be under team control for whatever salary they want then, anyway.

The bargain comes in those options on years 6-8. The Rays get the choice of locking up a guy who could well be a perpetual Cy Young candidate on a set of one-year options of no more than $12M per season. It's a crazy good deal.

Even if Moore blows out his arm, the Rays are only on the hook for $3M per year. Even for the Rays that's not terribly big money.

7. Nasty Nate Posted: December 09, 2011 at 04:56 PM (#4011452)

The deal includes multiple club options and could extend to eight years for a guaranteed $37.5 million

If they are club options, why call the money guaranteed?

Why would Moore sign this?

8. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 09, 2011 at 04:58 PM (#4011454)

Why would Moore sign this?

I think Longoria's contract was pretty obviously a mistake (by Longoria and his agent), but for a young pitcher in the heart of the "injury nexus", there's always the chance that $400k is the best contract you ever make. I'd be looking for a way to get some guaranteed money, too. The question is whether he had to give up all those option years to get the money.

If they are club options, why call the money guaranteed?

It's not written clearly, but I think Crasnick is trying to distinguish the $23.5M in team options from the incentive clauses that could escalate the cost of those options.

9. Nasty Nate Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:04 PM (#4011461)

but for a young pitcher in the heart of the "injury nexus", there's always the chance that $400k is the best contract you ever make.

This chance seems so small as to be negligible (easy for me to say, I know). I can't recall anyone so talented as Moore being so badly injured that they never get another contract. If he didn't sign and ended up needing TJ surgery next year it's not like the Rays would release him.

10. UCCF Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:08 PM (#4011470)

I can't recall anyone so talented as Moore being so badly injured that they never get another contract.

Mark Prior says hi, from his hospital bed.

11. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:12 PM (#4011477)

I can't recall anyone so talented as Moore being so badly injured that they never get another contract.

Roger Salkeld was a top 5 prospect two years running, threw 14 IP in the majors and blew out his arm. He never made more than the MLB minimum. Basically the same thing happened to Ryan Anderson a decade later.

Dustin McGowan still hasn't made more than the minimum in a season.

If you look at old BA top 20 lists, there's almost always a pitcher on there you barely remember, because he blew out his arm before he could make an impact.

12. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:12 PM (#4011480)

I can't recall anyone so talented as Moore being so badly injured that they never get another contract.

Mark Prior says hi, from his hospital bed.

Mark Prior got $1,000,000 from the Padres in 2008.

13. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:12 PM (#4011482)

Mark Prior says hi, from his hospital bed.

He tried to wave, but what's left of his rotator cuff burst into flames.

And then Marcus Giles ran into him.

14. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:14 PM (#4011485)

Mark Prior got $1,000,000 from the Padres in 2008.

More importantly, Prior signed a major league contract out of college. He made close to $14M in his baseball career.

15. Steve Sparks Flying Everywhere Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:16 PM (#4011489)

The Rays offered Moore financial security for the rest of his life (if he spends his money wisely). I'd do that exact same thing.

16. dlf Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:17 PM (#4011493)

I remember more than three decades ago when, coming off his remarkable rookie campaign in the very begining of the free agency era even before it was clear that it would take 6 years of service time to become a FA, Mark Fidrych signed a three year deal for about $250,000 (total, not per annum) announcing that he took less money to be assured of becoming fully vested in the pension plan.

17. Diamond Research Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:17 PM (#4011494)

And Mark Prior has made at least $12.8M in his career.

[Matt C beat me to it]

18. Nasty Nate Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:18 PM (#4011497)

Thanks MCoA, I underestimated how severe some of these arm injuries can be.

19. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:28 PM (#4011511)

Honest question, how often has it been done 9 innings into a career?

And 10 post season innings.

Has any starting pitcher, at any point in his career, had more post season than regular season innings?

After 2008, David Price had 14 regular season and 5.2 post-season.

20. ray james Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:32 PM (#4011514)

21. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past

Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:35 PM (#4011519)

The Rays offered Moore financial security for the rest of his life (if he spends his money wisely). I'd do that exact same thing.

Exactly. It's easy for us to sit here and say he signed too cheap, but we're playing the game of life with Monopoly money. Moore is living it.

Suppose I give you a guaranteed income stream that is Moore's minimum. But wait, then I offer you the chance to bet it all to make a lot more money. Now the odds are in your favor, but there is a definite chance that you will lose it all. So, do you take the $14 mill or wager it?

Before you answer, one more name to add to the sad story list:
Brien Taylor.

22. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:41 PM (#4011530)

This chance seems so small as to be negligible (easy for me to say, I know). I can't recall anyone so talented as Moore being so badly injured that they never get another contract.

well I see people have beaten me to this....

Justin Thompson, Joe Mays
and there were close calls, guys who would have lost a ton of $ had they been injured/lost effectiveness just a year or two earlier, Dontrelle Willis, Ben Sheets, Kazmir, Wang...

I think the odds are that this is/will be a bad deal for Moore, but OTOH there is a definite non-zero chance of implosion before arb/Fa eligibility that would make this a good deal for him

23. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:44 PM (#4011535)

Exactly. It's easy for us to sit here and say he signed too cheap, but we're playing the game of life with Monopoly money. Moore is living it.

Wait, isn't it the opposite? We all could lose our jobs and not be able to pay our bills. Moore's got the Monopoly money now.

24. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:44 PM (#4011536)

Roger Salkeld was a top 5 prospect two years running, threw 14 IP in the majors and blew out his arm. He never made more than the MLB minimum. Basically the same thing happened to Ryan Anderson a decade later.

Dustin McGowan still hasn't made more than the minimum in a season.

If you look at old BA top 20 lists, there's almost always a pitcher on there you barely remember, because he blew out his arm before he could make an impact.

Oh yeah, definitely. Or he just faded away because of minor injuries.

One I was reminded of by his recent signing with the Phillies is Scott Elarton. In mid-1999 he seemed like the future ace of an Astros rotation that would also have young guns Wade Miller and Tony McKnight. Then he had surgery after surgery, eventually missed 2002 and most of 2003, became a mediocre starter, got injured a couple more times, seemed like he was going to be a good reliever, then got put on the Indians' restricted list for mysterious personal reasons.

He's thrown 1065 major-league innings and made $8 million for those couple years as a mediocre starter, and a few seasons at the minimum. But, you know, Matt Moore is already going to get more than that.

25. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:46 PM (#4011539)

[19]

Has any starting pitcher, at any point in his career, had more post season than regular season innings?

I was about to say Francisco Rodríguez, but then I reread and saw "starting" pitcher.

26. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:47 PM (#4011540)

Bill Pusipher - $676,500 in career earnings. Now, with today's higher league minimum, that might nudge up to $2 mil or so, but still.

27. Nasty Nate Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:51 PM (#4011549)

Honest question, how often has it been done 9 innings into a career?

And 10 post season innings.

Has any starting pitcher, at any point in his career, had more post season than regular season innings?

Matt Moore.

"My roommate says, "I'm going to take a shower and shave. Does anyone need to use the bathroom?" It's like some weird quiz where he reveals the answer first." - Mitch Hedberg

But seriously, good question . Moore might be the only one.

28. John Northey Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:54 PM (#4011555)

Another plus for Moore is he knows the Rays have a major incentive to keep him A) healthy and B) in the majors. The Jays did something smaller with Roy Halladay way back and it looked really bad when he had that 10.64 ERA but it gave the Jays a strong incentive to do whatever it took to get Halladay back to where they wanted him. It worked out pretty good for both parties I'd say.

29. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:54 PM (#4011558)

Man, looking at Cots the Rays have several awesome contracts. Besides this and Longoria they have the option to keep Shields locked in through 2014, Zobrist through 2015, and Davis through 2017. What's next, Price signing an extension at 5/40?

30. aberg Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:56 PM (#4011563)

Part of Moore's motivation must be that he was a later draft pick and got a bonus of just over $100k. Guys who were drafted in the first round already got life-changing money, but this may be his first bite at the apple.

31. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:58 PM (#4011566)

For some reason I thought Jon Matlack was the answer to both "Has any starting pitcher had more post-season than regular season innings" and "Who threw the last out of the 1969 World Series and then was traded for Jesse Orosco". Is he the answer to ANY trivia question?

32. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 09, 2011 at 05:59 PM (#4011569)

What's next, Price signing an extension at 5/40?

Trade Price for Alonso and Mesoroco, then lock up those guys.

33. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: December 09, 2011 at 06:01 PM (#4011574)

Man, looking at Cots the Rays have several awesome contracts. Besides this and Longoria they have the option to keep Shields locked in through 2014, Zobrist through 2015, and Davis through 2017. What's next, Price signing an extension at 5/40?

In 2014, the Rays will have Zobrist, Shields, Longoria, Davis, and Moore for about $32 mil, plus Price who will still be arb eligible.

34. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: December 09, 2011 at 06:03 PM (#4011578)

Is he the answer to ANY trivia question?

Name a Mets pitcher who's name is only one letter away from being a long running TV series. And it's not the Golden Girls.

35. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: December 09, 2011 at 06:05 PM (#4011581)

Name a Mets pitcher who's name is only one letter away from being a long running TV series.

Pete Falcone Crest?

36. Diamond Research Posted: December 09, 2011 at 06:06 PM (#4011583)

#5, can't forget he has been brought along slowly (some would say painfully slowly) by the Rays. Lots of guys were much younger than Moore when they made a big splash in the post season. Valenzuela for one.

37. Perry Posted: December 09, 2011 at 06:07 PM (#4011586)

Then there's the saga of Matt Harrington, once drafted 7th overall, who basically never made a dime, and when last heard of was working at Costco. But that (mostly) wasn't injuries.

38. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: December 09, 2011 at 06:11 PM (#4011593)

Wowow. Moore's agent should be drawn and quartered. What is Friedman sprinkling in these guys' drinks?

39. Nasty Nate Posted: December 09, 2011 at 06:13 PM (#4011595)

Name a Mets pitcher who's name is only one letter away from being a long running TV series. And it's not the Golden Girls.

Neil Allen
Tom "Leave it to" Seaver

40. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: December 09, 2011 at 06:15 PM (#4011597)

Neil Allen

Trying to figure this one out.

Alien?

Alpen?

Ah, Ellen.

41. Nasty Nate Posted: December 09, 2011 at 06:20 PM (#4011604)

Yes, Ellen. I only know who Neil Allen is because of that documentary about the origins of rotisserie baseball.

42. Schtoopo Posted: December 09, 2011 at 06:58 PM (#4011653)

The Rays offered Moore financial security for the rest of his life (if he spends his money wisely). I'd do that exact same thing.

So, if you're Moore, how do you invest it? Given that I'm economically illiterate, I have really no idea how you do that. I would assume that if you want to be conservative, you invest in bonds or something and live off the interest. Of course, I suppose you have to take inflation into account. So, anyway, what kind of annual return could Moore expect from $14M?

43. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: December 09, 2011 at 07:09 PM (#4011668)

So, if you're Moore, how do you invest it? Given that I'm economically illiterate, I have really no idea how you do that. I would assume that if you want to be conservative, you invest in bonds or something and live off the interest. Of course, I suppose you have to take inflation into account. So, anyway, what kind of annual return could Moore expect from $14M?

Well obviously he wouldn't be getting all that $14 million at once, but that just makes me wonder - do you think the league or the union would have any objection if Moore agreed to sign this contract but insisted on, say, ~$12 million up-front and league-minimum contracts each of the subsequent 4 years?

44. Nasty Nate Posted: December 09, 2011 at 07:17 PM (#4011677)

do you think the league or the union would have any objection if Moore agreed to sign this contract but insisted on, say, ~$12 million up-front and league-minimum contracts each of the subsequent 4 years?

The Rays would presumably be the ones with the problem with it and wouldn't agree unless they got some concession from Moore in return. Certainly the union wouldnt mind...

45. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 09, 2011 at 07:22 PM (#4011685)

do you think the league or the union would have any objection if Moore agreed to sign this contract but insisted on, say, ~$12 million up-front and league-minimum contracts each of the subsequent 4 years?

Arbitration is generally decided on comparison so I think the MLBPA would dislike it as his arb years would be league minimum. I don't understand the process enough to know how impactful such an obvious exception would be but I can see the union being less than enthused.

46. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: December 09, 2011 at 07:23 PM (#4011690)

So, if you're Moore, how do you invest it? Given that I'm economically illiterate, I have really no idea how you do that. I would assume that if you want to be conservative, you invest in bonds or something and live off the interest.

He seems like a bonds guy to me, obviously no appetite for risk if he was willing to sign this deal. Man, talk about selling yourself short.

47. Schtoopo Posted: December 09, 2011 at 07:38 PM (#4011710)

I assume there have been more than a few primer threads discussing how players best invest their money. If anyone could point to them, I'd be quite interested to read them.

48. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: December 09, 2011 at 07:44 PM (#4011718)

So, if you're Moore, how do you invest it? Given that I'm economically illiterate, I have really no idea how you do that. I would assume that if you want to be conservative, you invest in bonds or something and live off the interest.

I'm partial to dividend paying blue chip stocks. It gives income and some capital appreciation. AT&T for example, is currently paying nearly 6%. After taxes, agent fees, expenses, house, and a few toys, say he's got $5 mil left after year 5 and at that point owns about 170,000 shares of AT&T. That would provide about $300,000 annually in dividend income.

Of course you wouldn't want to put all your nest egg into one stock, but that's just an example.

The thing is, he wouldn't be able to make any substantial investments until year 4 (I'm assuming any big money doesn't kick in until arb years), and by then he'd have a pretty good idea what his future earnings would look like, if his options are likely to get picked up, and he could tailor his savings and investments accordingly.

49. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: December 09, 2011 at 07:45 PM (#4011721)

I assume there have been more than a few primer threads discussing how players best invest their money. If anyone could point to them, I'd be quite interested to read them.

Type "Lenny Dykstra" in the search box. And then cover your eyes.

That's actually a topic I don't recall seeing discussed here. Could be wrong on that though.

50. Athletic Supporter's aunt's sorry like Aziz Posted: December 09, 2011 at 08:14 PM (#4011763)

I assume there have been more than a few primer threads discussing how players best invest their money. If anyone could point to them, I'd be quite interested to read them.

One word: plastics.

51. Joey B. is counting the days to Trea Turner Posted: December 09, 2011 at 08:32 PM (#4011789)

Anyone who thinks that bonds are a risk-free investment obviously needs to pay much closer attention to the news of the world.

52. MM1f Posted: December 09, 2011 at 08:45 PM (#4011798)

I think Longoria's contract was pretty obviously a mistake (by Longoria and his agent), but for a young pitcher in the heart of the "injury nexus", there's always the chance that $400k is the best contract you ever make. I'd be looking for a way to get some guaranteed money, too. The question is whether he had to give up all those option years to get the money.

Agreed. I would sign the deal too. Lifelong financial security at age 23 would be an irresistible proposition. The gain of going from rich to "epic rich" isn't worth the risk of blowing my arm out and never making even a million dollars in baseball.

53. McCoy Posted: December 09, 2011 at 08:54 PM (#4011805)

The Rays with each passing year make the Rockies's decision to give a young Tulo a 31 million dollar contract look more and more foolish.

54. Danny Posted: December 09, 2011 at 10:00 PM (#4011879)

Wow! This is probably going to be the biggest bargain in the game for the next five years.

The Rays likely won't be saving much, if any, money over the next 5 years. Jered Weaver had a 120 ERA+ prior to his first year of arb, when he got $4.3M. Then he put up a 132 ERA+ in 224 inning in 2010, making the All-Star team and receiving CYA votes, and lost in arbitration after asking for $8.8M. So despite being a very good starting pitcher with no injury problems, Weaver only got $13M through his first 5+ years. Of course, if Moore goes Timmy and wins back to back CYAs, he'll be a huge bargain in years 4 and 5.

As MCoA said in post 6, the real savings comes in the options for years 6-8. Weaver will make $46M over years 6-8, while Moore may only make $26.5M.

55. Jose is an Absurd Sultan Posted: December 09, 2011 at 10:27 PM (#4011912)

Agreed. I would sign the deal too. Lifelong financial security at age 23 would be an irresistible proposition. The gain of going from rich to "epic rich" isn't worth the risk of blowing my arm out and never making even a million dollars in baseball.

The other thing Moore has going for him is he will be 30 years old when this is done. As Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson have shown that age is still young enough to get yourself a big bag o' cash to play with. He gets the security with this deal and he still will have a shot at the big-mega-ridiculous payday down the road.

This isn't his only kiss at the pig.

56. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 09, 2011 at 10:32 PM (#4011927)

As MCoA said in post 6, the real savings comes in the options for years 6-8. Weaver will make $46M over years 6-8, while Moore may only make $26.5M.

True, but that's a high class problem for Moore to have. If Tampa gets the savings, it means Moore has ~$40M in career earnings, and a likely huge FA payday coming up.

57. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: December 09, 2011 at 10:43 PM (#4011944)

I wonder if they have made a similar offer to Hellickson and he turned it down. If not, I can see him being a bit peeved. "Hey, Rookie of the Year over here. What am I, a potted plant?"

58. Greg Pope Posted: December 09, 2011 at 10:48 PM (#4011949)

Yeah, we don't know the negotiations and if he could have gotten a chunk of money at shorter years that may have been better. But honestly, what's the rate of attrition of young pitchers?

For those who think Moore is making a mistake, think of something you're decent at but not great. Say something that you can do 60% of the time. I'm a decent bowler and I can get a strike 60% of the time. If you gave me $14 million dollars and then told me I could bet $13 million (even odds) on one throw, there's no way I take it. Sure, rate of return is greater, but there's no way I'm risking a 40% chance of losing the $13 million.

59. MM1f Posted: December 09, 2011 at 11:00 PM (#4011970)

I wonder if they have made a similar offer to Hellickson and he turned it down. If not, I can see him being a bit peeved. "Hey, Rookie of the Year over here. What am I, a potted plant?"

I actually thought about Hellickson as soon as I heard about this deal. I, too, wondered if the Rays offered a similar deal and I couldn't decide.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Rays thought he was a riskier bet than Moore to be a good pitcher 5-8 years down the road. He is a stocky, control-oriented righty. A damn good one, but still. His natural talent isn't as obvious or overwhelming as Moore's and he isn't as likely to become an ace.

60. Diamond Research Posted: December 09, 2011 at 11:00 PM (#4011971)

I wonder if they have made a similar offer to Hellickson

Hellickson is in Boras' camp. Boras will get him to the open market as quickly as possible.

61. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: December 09, 2011 at 11:13 PM (#4011983)

Hellickson is in Boras' camp. Boras will get him to the open market as quickly as possible.

OK. Still, that Rays staff is going to be fun to watch for the next 3-4 years. I never thought I'd say this, but David Price may be no better than the 4th starter in that rotation.

62. The District Attorney Posted: December 09, 2011 at 11:18 PM (#4011989)

I never thought I'd say this, but David Price may be no better than the 4th starter in that rotation.

Shields is very likely to be traded.

63. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past

Posted: December 10, 2011 at 05:20 AM (#4012290)

Exactly. It's easy for us to sit here and say he signed too cheap, but we're playing the game of life with Monopoly money. Moore is living it.

Wait, isn't it the opposite? We all could lose our jobs and not be able to pay our bills. Moore's got the Monopoly money now.

OK, I need to rephrase that. I meant tht we're playing a game with MOORE'S life - so the money isn't real to us.

We are judging what Moore should do from the sidelines - it isn't our own money that we are risking, it is a number on paper to us that will never be in our own bank account, no matter whether or not Moore blows out his arm. So we are telling this guy what to do without fear of real consequences. We won't miss out on the $14 million in the small chance that Moore fails as a MLB player, so it is easy to say "take the chance". Moore will live a very good life on this money. If he is a perennial Cy Young contender, he can bemoan the lack of multiple Bentleys in his garage. But he won't be working at Costco.

64. Something Other Posted: December 10, 2011 at 06:25 AM (#4012324)

Suppose I give you a guaranteed income stream that is Moore's minimum. But wait, then I offer you the chance to bet it all to make a lot more money. Now the odds are in your favor, but there is a definite chance that you will lose it all. So, do you take the $14 mill or wager it?

This is a big part of the point. If you give me even 3 to 1 odds on my first 14m in baseball salary, I wouldn't take it. I'm not sure even 7 to 1 would persuade me, as chicken as that seems.

As MCoA said in post 6, the real savings comes in the options for years 6-8. Weaver will make $46M over years 6-8, while Moore may only make $26.5M.

True, but that's a high class problem for Moore to have. If Tampa gets the savings, it means Moore has ~$40M in career earnings, and a likely huge FA payday coming up.

I can miss things in these kinds of scenarios, but isn't this more than just a sop, but something to legitimately factor in? Whenever it turns out the deal wasn't particularly good for Moore, it means he's likely in line for a huge payday?

Wowow. Moore's agent should be drawn and quartered. What is Friedman sprinkling in these guys' drinks?

Why? He's pitched 19 innings in the majors. He's very far from a sure thing.

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ESPN: Crasnick: Rays sign Moore for 5/14

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