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Baseball Primer Newsblog — The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Friday, October 21, 2011ESPN: Rapid Reaction: Rangers 2, Cardinals 1
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Posted: October 21, 2011 at 03:23 AM | 64 comment(s)
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1. GutsAnd now LaRussa has planted that seed of doubt in Motte's mind. Despite his superhuman run in the role, Motte now knows that if he lets men on base and LaRussa has a chance to deploy his parade of relievers, he will probably do so.
But is he in fact more likely to get Hamilton out? As was pointed out in the managing blunder thread, Motte has a non-trivial platoon split -- probably an ability level though there's no way to know. And I like Hamilton more against a power right-hander than a loogy (even a loogy who's lost a lot of his stuff).
A sac fly isn't the end of the world up by 1 in the top of the 9th (though since LaRussa had put the defense in, the Cardinals are not what you'd call favorites if the game goes long)
And then there's the whole question of who you want facing Young.
He is a subject matter expert, isn't he?
I don't fault LaRussa for pulling Motte there. If he leaves Motte in, and Motte loses the game on his own, there's permanent psychological trauma.
One of my biggest problems with LaRussa during the Izzy/Franklin eras was that he'd leave them hanging when it was clear they didn't have it - so I'm not faulting him here for having a quick hook in a 1-run game.
Hell of an NL-style pitcher's duel that was, featuring stellar defense, an RBI pinch-hit to open the scoring, a 9th inning comeback, agressive heads up baserunning, tying and go ahead sac flies. Sucks that my team blew a shot to be up 2-0, but historically speaking they've won 10 out of 12 WS when splitting the first 2, and lost (with a little help from Don Denkinger) the only WS when they held a 2-0 advantage.
I'm expecting some AL style HR derbies in games 3 and 4. I do feel good about Carpenter and Garcia serving as the firewalls in games 5 and 6, should Texas take the next 2.
Too often I see out calls at second if the throw beats the runner, regardless of whether the tag was applied in time or not.
I concur they should have let Punto hit as he was doing just fine swinging the bat up to that point*, but the turning point of the game was the Kinsler stolen base.
*I want advanced stats on bunts to evaluate the likelihood of 'success' on a conceded out - the way LaRussa calls for it so much, it's like he thinks there's a 99% chance it'll 'work' when it's far more like 65/35 - measured against the likelihood that a player accomplishes the same objective by swinging away.
It's like bringing in a LOOGY to face a LH batter - it's the "right thing to do".
Baseball Reference has a stat that almost tells you what you want to know: in his career Punto's successfully bunted 63% of the time, vs a league average success rate of 69%. The past two years he's been 10 for 10, so maybe he's improved a bit.
The problem is, that stat doesn't include situations like today where a batter fails to bunt until there's two strikes and then makes an out.
MGL and/or Tango did one, might be in the book. A lot of variables so it's difficult to say yes/no but the gist is that there's enough of a chance of a bunt base hit, an error, or an "unsuccessful" bunt ending up in a ball/strike/foul that it's not generally a truly bad play in a close game (and if I remember is good with 1st and 2nd and nobody out in this type of scenario). Granted, the funny bit of that is that you can nearly summarize the study as "there's enough screw-ups and luck on bunt attempts to negate the stupidity of the successful sac bunt." :-)
Looking forward to seeing how the Cards do against the lesser names in Texas' lefty-heavy rotation. I don't expect Lohse and Jackson (especially Edwin, who has been about as useless as a talented, 2-4-win starter could possibly be since coming to St. Louis) to hold the Rangers to two runs a game, but I doubt that will be necessary with all of the righty bats we'll be running out there. I'll be disappointed if the Cardinals don't put up double-digits in at least one of the three games in Arlington.
Who would have been covering first to take the throw? It would have kept the runner at first, and it would have been a tied game either way.
Tony LaRussa's Parade Of Single Batter Bullpen Micromanagement loses game 2 of the WS: UNIMAGINABLE!!!
Whatev.
It also would have been nice to keep Andrus at first. Kind of an odd whiff by Pujols.
Derek Jeter would have cut it off and made the throw home to save the game.
Boy did Texas play defense
I don't know that I would blame LaRussa for pulling Motte. Motte has 13 meltdowns, according to Fangraphs. His save percent isn't overwhelming (4 blown saves vs. 9 saves). If LaRussa sees something in how Motte has started the inning that makes him think that this could be a repeat, I can understand why he pulled him.
In opting for Rhodes he's accepting that allowing 1 run is the single most likely scenario (since Rhodes [probably] has a greater chance of getting Hamilton out, but has a much higher chance of allowing a productive out) while minimizing (or seeking to) the chance of allowing 2 or more runs.
Texas challenged the Cards to make PLAYS. The steal attempt. The cutoff
Good to see someone stress St Louis for a change
Runner on third, no out? TLR is a sharp enough guy to know that that run is probably scoring and preventing the second run is key.
Unfortunately for TLR and the Cardinals, preventing the second run wasn't a function of who is pitching but cutting the ball off and holding Andrus to first. Once there were runners second and third, most plays that would see the runner home from third see the runner from second moving to third. Man on third, one out? That run is still quite likely to score.
IOW, I think going to Rhodes would have been the good move had it been first and thrid and you're trying to get a double play out of Hamilton. But in the situation, you either go for the strikout or - be ready to gasp - walk Hamilton and use Motte the rest of the way.
I haven't seen Motte enough to know, but I didn't think he looked bad. He gave up a pop up that should have been an out* and a base hit. Okay, I know people say "But he hadn't given up a hit in, like, forever!" and, therefore, somehow, he didn't have it. But pitchers will give up hits. All of them. Put it this way: if Andrus leads off with a sharp line drive hit, do you pull him? Because in that 9th, that was the only thing you can put on him: he gave up one sharp line drive. The Kinsler hit was a dink and Andrus advanced on a bad relay throw.
Anyway, I'm glad it went the way it did because it keeps the series alive. I don't think you can really ask for a better first two games.
* Count me among those that think the guard the lines/move the OF back is silly. Play defense. If you give up a double, you give up a double, but you do that a lot less than you give up singles. As they say, there is no clock. The best thing a defense that needs three outs can do is maximize their chance of getting outs.
The inning went to h*ck when the Cards defense didn't make the 'almost' plays.
Good for the Rangers in forcing the issue and credit them again for leveraging the situation into runs versus a RUN.
Yeah, this is the nuts of it. Not getting either a sacrifice or throwing out Kinsler and then screwing up the cutoff. This is what doomed them.
Cardinal pitching gave up one legitimate hit, a doinker that is probably caught in any other inning and two fly balls.
HW, I'm not completely sold on walking Hamilton, just that I think it would be a defensible move in the situation. As said, it probably doesn't end up mattering either way. Men on 2nd and 3rd with no outs is a bad strategic place to be.
I thought Lynn should have been more agressive in pitching to Young. I know it sounds like secodn guessing now, but I would have challenged him more with fastballs. But give Young credit, he took a tough pitch and did what he needed to do.
Nobody was covering first, but that's irrelevant.
When Andrus singled to center, Kinsler ran through a stop sign at 3rd and was in danger of being picked off had Pujols not missed the cutoff throw. From my angle on the 1st base line, it looked like Pujols would have been able to get him at 3rd. With Andrus taking 2nd on the play, it still takes a base hit to tie.
Does he really? Motte is more of a strikeout pitcher than Rhodes at this stage of his career, but Hamilton also strikes out more against lefties than righties, and Motte strikes out more righties than lefties. Once you figure all that stuff in, it's probably pretty close either way.
I feel much like kaput in #20, from the opposite cheering section. I was philosophical when the ninth inning started, but I felt, hey, two low-scoring one-run losses that a few balls bouncing this way and that could have moved either way is great start to the World Series, and no bad reflection on the Rangers even if they come home 0-2. And then a few balls bounced the other way. I love games where neither team quits and both continually have chances. In another thread this morning people are bemoaning the "randomness" of postseasons like this one, but as you actually watch the games unfold, who cares how "random" the eventual outcome is? It's wonderful sports.
I don't think this reporter actually watched the game.
Yes, that was a great game. Both of the games so far. I hope the rest of the series is this close.
Possible, but I think it doubtful he gets him.
Simillarly, I'm not sure how deep and to the line Holliday was playing compared to his normal alignment, but he was nowhere near that dink. That ball might have just been destined for a grassy landing.
And I agree with the comments on the quality of the games. Let's get five more of these.
Those blown save numbers from Motte are misleading. JM didn't become the closer until late August, and upon quick glance at bb-ref, didn't appear in a 9th inning save chance until then. So I think it better to look at the blown save/hold ratio. Which was 3/17. And the one blown save Motte had as a closer was the result of a dropped fly ball that would have been the last out. (Although he didn't get the BS in the meltdown against the Mets in the last week of the season.)
And given the way Holliday has played LF, I am not sure he catches Kinsler's hit even if he is playing normally. I get nervous whenever a ball is hit to him.
I would have left Motte in. LaRussa has had the golden touch this postseason, but that was a classic overthink.
Right. There needs to be a K/rate for both batters and pitchers for PAs when the batter makes at least 1 bunt attempt.
Punto may have been 10 for his last 10, but I can almost guarantee you none of those pitchers threw 100MPH.
I was thinking about the gods last night when Molina's beautiful throw on Kinsler was to the front of base, allowing Kinsler to sneak in the back door. Against the Phillies, his key throw was to the back of the bag to get Rollins. I can picture a "Clash of the Titans" scene where Zeus blows the one throw from behind and the other from CF, to add/subtract 6" from the tbrows.
:-D That, or he still can't believe LaRussa relieved Motte ...
BOO the IBB! !!!
Two outstanding games, but for me, I'm hoping the next three games involve the Rangers opening up a 10 run lead in the first and then gradually pulling away from there.
Really worried about the corpse of Josh Hamilton in the games to come... Wash's unshakeable loyalty and confidence in his players is probably, in part, why his teams avoid distractions and play hard for him, but Hamilton looks crippled out there and probably shouldn't even be in the lineup, let alone hitting 3rd.
Yes. Terrific game, lots to talk about today. I think this is shaping up to be an epic series.
And Feliz really did settle down after walking Yadier. He threw only four called balls to the remaining three hitters in the inning.
I think you ask Punto to square, but you'd hope he doesn't try to bunt a pitch that's out of the zone. Then again, I've never turned to drop down a bunt on a 100-mph pitch, so I'm not sure how easy that particular determination is.
Tony LaRussa's Parade Of Single Batter Bullpen Micromanagement loses game 2 of the WS: UNIMAGINABLE!!!
Whatev.
This was my reaction. After all the articles after Game 1 of how genius LaRussa is, I expected some blowback after Game 2. Silly me.
I HATE the IBB so I will oppose in almost every situation
BOO the IBB! !!!
Let's be baseball strategy soulmates, Harvey. Ask the fellow Sox Chatter posters how many times I complain about the stupidity of IBBs...
based on what my eyeballs have told me over the years, it's really effing hard.
Called it!
Attempted linkage won't work, but Passan has a column up on Yahoo ripping Pujols.
Agreed. It's bothersome, to say the least, that our 5-6-7 hitters are better than our 2-3-4 hitters.
Yep. Fortunately lineup construction isn't THAT big a deal, but getting your best 9 players in that lineup is, and I'm not convinced the injured Hamilton is one of those guys.
I wonder if it simply a matter of a different perspective on the incoming pitch. It seems that even guys with normally good strike zone awareness flail wildly at bad pitches when they try to bunt. With no strikes, you should only be trying to bunt really buntable balls. Get a little less selective with one strike. I've also never understood not bunting with two strikes - if you think it's the right play and you think your guy can bunt, do it. If you don't think he can bunt, don't ask him to.
Most bad bunts I see are guys trying to bunt balls that are hard to bunt because they seem to forget that, while they are trying to sacrifice, there isn't necessarily a big hurry in doing so. No one seems to want to take a pitch when bunting which just seems odd.
So, my theory is that when squared around, the view of the pitch changes so much that they don't know when it will be a strike or ball or, indeed, if it's going to bounce in the dirt.
Weird. my #1 observation with bunting lately seems to be that guys square around to bunt, then pull it back and take a strike right down the middle. Maybe it's just been random luck, but I seem to have noticed that a lot in the last couple years.
The actual skill of bunting the ball, they seem okay with. It's more pitch selection I think.
Small samples and not paying real close attention caveats, of course.
That's what I was getting at. I imagine that the squaring-up process does change the vantagepoint such that you don't have the same grasp of the zone, a problem that's exacerbated with someone throwing as hard as Feliz. You'd like Punto to just pull the bat back on those Feliz pitches that were out of the zone - but it's probably much easier said than done. And as Tom said, if you're planning to sacrifice, you don't want to be taking a buntable pitch and leaving yourself with just one strike* to work with.
* Assuming you're not letting him bunt with two strikes, which seems the general rule unless pitchers are at the plate.
Must have been the fastest he's moved in months. Seriously, how does he get a pass for the Manny B. Mannyesque hustle he exhibits on every play (including his botched cut-off)?
Seriously, how does he get a pass for the Manny B. Mannyesque hustle he exhibits on every play
Wha?
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