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Sunday, June 30, 2019

ESPN:Miller:Even for homer-happy 2019, offense is out of control at Coors Field

In 2017, the Denver Post profiled Tony Cowell, the Coors Field stadium engineer who…conceived of a humidor that would bring Coors Field’s extraordinary offensive environment to heel.

...It took 18 seasons after Cowell’s miracle cure for altitude, but Coors Field has fought back. Its Park Factor has been steadily rising, and this year it has reached a new post-humidor extreme. Nothing in that park is normal anymore.

Lots of stats in the article, such as oddball stuff like Charlie Blackmon’s splits (1.495 home OPS, .653 road OPS) but also more substantive stuff like this:

Rockies pitchers have a 3.90 ERA on the road, which is the fourth-lowest mark in baseball…Those same pitchers have a 6.45 ERA at home, which is the second-worst home ERA since at least integration (better only than the 1999 Rockies).

...If Rockies pitchers were giving up way more hard contact, that would be easily explained, but they actually have allowed a lower exit velocity at home, and according to Statcast’s xwOBA (.346 at home, .337 on the road), they’ve allowed similar quality of contact. Quality of contact is more complicated than that, but all of this together suggests that Rockies pitchers aren’t pitching worse at home, but that the same batted balls are doing far, far, far more damage in Colorado.

 

The park never really was normal even with the humidor seemingly working, but this season it’s back to the Blake Street Bomber days where every Rockie hitter looks like a star.  Even Ian Desmond (.856 OPS would be his career high in a full season) and light-hitting catcher Tony Wolters (.291 average, but no secondary skills resulting in a .741 OPS and 81 OPS+) look good when their stats flash on the stadium board.

The teams hitters have an 89 OPS+ and the pitchers a 104 ERA+.  The bullpen has been bad, but the park effects have again led all the talk radio guys to keep beating the drum of “this team hits, it needs more pitchers.”

puck Posted: June 30, 2019 at 10:03 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: bludgeon ball, colorado rockies, coors field

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: July 01, 2019 at 02:11 AM (#5857620)
In other pitching news, the Seattle Mariners have used 34 pitchers already. Looks like only two of them were position players. Last year AL, one team used 35 and two used 36, including any position players. The Ms seem a good bet to top that.
   2. puck Posted: July 01, 2019 at 08:58 AM (#5857651)
A meaningless 9th inning HR in a 10-4 game helped keep whatever Blackmon is doing at home alive. Raised his home OPS to 1.506.

The Dodgers are great business. The Rockies averaged over 46,000 for the 4 game series.
   3. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 01, 2019 at 09:09 AM (#5857659)
It's really something how broad-based the difference is. The Rockies have struck out 100 more times on the road, while walking 40 more times at Coors. For the pitchers, though, the K/W data is virtually the same, home or away.

   4. Misirlou gave her his Vincent to ride Posted: July 01, 2019 at 09:18 AM (#5857663)
Coors field aint got nothing on London. 25 R/G average this year.
   5. PreservedFish Posted: July 01, 2019 at 09:50 AM (#5857679)
In a comment here once someone demonstrated that, judged by OPS+ and ERA+, the Rockies have basically always had better pitching than hitting, going back to the beginning. It's crazy how much that conflicts with the reputation, even for those of us that are hyperaware of park effects.
   6. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 01, 2019 at 10:31 AM (#5857710)
In a comment here once someone demonstrated that, judged by OPS+ and ERA+, the Rockies have basically always had better pitching than hitting, going back to the beginning.

The Devil's Theory of Park Effects, as coined by Bill James in the 1980's, when remarking that the Cubs and Braves typically had better pitching than hitting, despite playing in parks that hid it, and leading their front offices to always be looking for better pitchers -- even though that was the strength of the team -- because they mistakenly thought their hitting was good enough.
   7. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 01, 2019 at 10:49 AM (#5857716)
The Rockies have never really had a great pitcher, aside from Ubaldo Jimenez for a brief time, but they've got some really good ones whose work is largely disguised by the park. German Marquez has a better career ERA+ than Gerrit Cole. Jon Gray has a better career ERA+ than Dallas Keuchel.
   8. Moeball Posted: July 01, 2019 at 02:25 PM (#5857839)
Bud Black really has his work cut out for him trying to get the best usage out of the pitching staff without all the arms blowing up. The high pitch counts every game have got to be murder on the arms. I have noticed, however, that it's not just in Denver or London that a lot of starting pitchers are really struggling lately, with many games seeing the starters not even able to make it beyond the 3rd inning before they've already allowed 5 or 6 runs. I wonder what's going on? Is it just the weather warming up that's causing balls to carry really well? It's looking like a major onslaught on pitchers right now, with the exception of guys like Sherzer, Verlander, Greinke and maybe a couple of others who seem to be pitching as well as ever. BTW, speaking of the 3 pitchers referenced above, I'm coming to the conclusion all will be bound for Cooperstown when they finally hang it up for good. They've had pretty exceptional careers. I'm constantly reminded of how my Padres could have drafted Verlander but they wanted Matt Bush instead!
   9. Sweatpants Posted: July 01, 2019 at 03:05 PM (#5857865)
The Rockies have never really had a great pitcher, aside from Ubaldo Jimenez for a brief time, but they've got some really good ones whose work is largely disguised by the park.
Some of their '90s-'00s seasons are crazy. Pedro Astacio 1999, 5.04 ERA, but a 17-11 W-L record, and there wasn't anything lucky about the W-L. He genuinely did pitch well that season.
   10. SoSH U at work Posted: July 01, 2019 at 03:19 PM (#5857875)
The high pitch counts every game have got to be murder on the arms.


Which is why I'll never understand the desire to turn pitchers' parks into places more offense-friendly to appease the batters. A park that suppresses offense has got to be better for winning ballgames.

   11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 01, 2019 at 03:39 PM (#5857885)
Which is why I'll never understand the desire to turn pitchers' parks into places more offense-friendly to appease the batters. A park that suppresses offense has got to be better for winning ballgames.


Too extreme either way is going to be bad. Hitter's parks wear out your pitchers. Pitcher's parks frustrate your developing hitters and make them develop bad habits.
   12. SoSH U at work Posted: July 01, 2019 at 03:48 PM (#5857887)
Too extreme either way is going to be bad. Hitter's parks wear out your pitchers. Pitcher's parks frustrate your developing hitters and make them develop bad habits.


It can be bad if you're a bad organization. If you're a good one, it shouldn't be a problem. And, in fact, there are plenty of hitters who have developed just fine in pitchers parks.
   13. Sean Forman Posted: July 01, 2019 at 03:51 PM (#5857890)
You have to be a bit careful with team OPS+ as we exclude pitcher hitting when computing the league average.
   14. . Posted: July 01, 2019 at 04:01 PM (#5857893)
It's really something how broad-based the difference is. The Rockies have struck out 100 more times on the road,


Isn't this practically proof positive that moving back the fences would greatly aid in doing away with TTO baseball? The discrepancy can only seemingly be chalked up to approach and the approach difference can seemingly only be chalked up to ballpark dimension and the concomitant perceived higher relative value of a ball in play. At home, the Rockies are relatively K-averse because of the massive field size; on the road, with far smaller expanses of open green, they revert to oafball. It's really a stunning piece of data.
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 01, 2019 at 04:26 PM (#5857903)
It can be bad if you're a bad organization. If you're a good one, it shouldn't be a problem. And, in fact, there are plenty of hitters who have developed just fine in pitchers parks.

David Wright famously struggled with his approach after Citi Field opened. The Mariners and Padres both struggled to develop hitters when their parks were extreme.

I think your best bet is a slight pitchers park with one dimension or quirk that favors a certain type of hitter. Old Yankee Stadium is probably the best example of this being exploited by a team.
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 01, 2019 at 04:27 PM (#5857905)
Isn't this practically proof positive that moving back the fences would greatly aid in doing away with TTO baseball? The discrepancy can only seemingly be chalked up to approach

No. Pitchers famously struggle with feel and breaking pitches in Colorado.
   17. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 01, 2019 at 04:29 PM (#5857909)
The discrepancy can only seemingly be chalked up to approach


I think "only" overstates it. My understanding is that the thin air in Denver affects pitches. Specifically, I thought I read that it was harder to throw a breaking ball in thin air - I'm not a physicist, but less air resistance, right? It could be that Colorado batters strike out more on the road because they're more vulnerable to good breaking pitches, having gotten used to pitches not breaking as much in their home games.
   18. John DiFool2 Posted: July 01, 2019 at 04:37 PM (#5857914)
You have to be a bit careful with team OPS+ as we exclude pitcher hitting when computing the league average.


I'm also not sure the 2 + measures there account for the fact that the ballpark in question is not part of the team's road parks.
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 01, 2019 at 04:38 PM (#5857915)
I think "only" overstates it. My understanding is that the thin air in Denver affects pitches. Specifically, I thought I read that it was harder to throw a breaking ball in thin air - I'm not a physicist, but less air resistance, right?

Also, the very low humidity makes the baseballs tighter and slicker. Hence the humidifier.
   20. SoSH U at work Posted: July 01, 2019 at 04:50 PM (#5857922)
David Wright famously struggled with his approach after Citi Field opened. The Mariners and Padres both struggled to develop hitters when their parks were extreme.


If an established hitter such as David Wright struggled upon arrival at Citi Field, that's on David Wright and the Mets. That simply shouldn't happen.

But sure, what exactly was David Wright doing in Willets Point that he shouldn't have been doing? What are these bad habits that he picked up, and why?

The Mariners and Padres both struggled to develop hitters when their parks were extreme.


Except when the Mariners didn't. Bret Boone and Mike Cameron became better hitters in Cascadia than they ever were before (and they were the guys who were supposed to struggle, being mid-range righthanded power hitters). Ichiro had no trouble adjusting. And Arod, Edgar saw no ill effects from the move.

The Mariners started having trouble developing hitters when the Mariners became the terrible organization they are today. Bringing in the fences hasn't exactly turned them into a talent development factory.

And the Pads have an almost uniterrupted 50-year history of not developing much talent. Identifying the Extreme Mission Field Effect isn't going to be easy.

If your club is well run, the ballpark shouldn't be an issue in developing hitters. Because the message is largely the same whether you're playing in a canyon or a bandbox - swing at good strikes, don't swing at balls, swing hard. Your homers elsewhere might be doubles (and occasionally, long outs) in your new digs. But the approach shouldn't really change.



   21. . Posted: July 01, 2019 at 05:08 PM (#5857929)
No. Pitchers famously struggle with feel and breaking pitches in Colorado.


Coors Field was the median NL park in strikeouts last year.
   22. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 01, 2019 at 05:21 PM (#5857934)
If your club is well run, the ballpark shouldn't be an issue in developing hitters.

Strike hitters and put in pitchers and you could say the exact same thing.

There's no reason ever to have an extreme park in either direction. Keep the park factor between 97 and 103 and you're fine.
   23. SoSH U at work Posted: July 01, 2019 at 05:36 PM (#5857939)
Strike hitters and put in pitchers and you could say the exact same thing.


That would be an excellent comeback, if my position was based on the idea that pitchers' parks helped develop pitchers.

That's not why I think it's better. Playing in a pitcher's park helps keep your pitchers of all ages healthier - fewer pitches thrown equals fewer visits to Doc Andrews' Labrum Fix-Up Shop.


   24. bobm Posted: July 01, 2019 at 05:58 PM (#5857949)
Just for fun, not adjusting for quality of pitching staff:

For single team seasons, For 2019, All Teams in Major Leagues, For any choice in Ballpark Platoon Splits, sorted by greatest babip for this split

                                              
Rk                    Split Year  G BAbip   PA
1     as LHBBOS-London Stad 2019  4  .442   58
2     as RHBBOS-London Stad 2019  4  .434  135
3    as RHBKCR-TD Amer Park 2019  2  .389   57
4       as LHBCOL-Coors Fld 2019 82  .365 1522
5       as RHBCOL-Coors Fld 2019 82  .345 1852
6          as LHBPIT-PNC Pk 2019 72  .333 1294
7      as LHBWSN-Natls Park 2019 79  .331 1130
8      as LHBNYM-Citi Field 2019 74  .327 1097
9      as RHBCHW-Guaranteed 2019 80  .323 1818
10      as LHBBOS-Fenway Pk 2019 80  .321 1185
11    as RHBTEX-Rangers Bpk 2019 86  .319 1733
12   as LHBKCR-KauffmanStad 2019 80  .319 1272
13      as RHBBOS-Fenway Pk 2019 80  .317 1948
14    as LHBATL-SunTrust Pk 2019 82  .314 1371
15    as RHBATL-SunTrust Pk 2019 82  .314 1858
16     as RHBMIA-Marlins Pk 2019 88  .312 2214
17   as RHBTBR-TropicanaFld 2019 82  .305 1872
18   as LHBPHI-CitizensBank 2019 88  .304 1235
19   as RHBNYY-Yankee Stad3 2019 90  .303 2352
20   as RHBBAL-Camden Yards 2019 84  .303 1985
21    as LHBSEA-T-Mobile Pk 2019 84  .301 1488
22      as LHBMIL-Miller Pk 2019 90  .301 1614
23    as LHBDET-Comerica Pk 2019 83  .301  975
24   as LHBMIN-Target Field 2019 80  .301 1365
25    as LHBTEX-Rangers Bpk 2019 86  .300 1587
26   as RHBCIN-GreatAmer BP 2019 74  .299 1581
27       as LHBSDP-Petco Pk 2019 88  .299 1007
28     as LHBCHW-Guaranteed 2019 80  .298 1222
29    as LHBARI-Chase Field 2019 78  .296 1287
30    as RHBDET-Comerica Pk 2019 84  .296 2212
31     as RHBWSN-Natls Park 2019 80  .296 1955
32         as RHBPIT-PNC Pk 2019 72  .295 1574
33      as RHBMIL-Miller Pk 2019 90  .295 1839
34    as RHBSEA-T-Mobile Pk 2019 84  .293 1840
35    as RHBSFG-Oracle Park 2019 86  .292 1819
36    as LHBSFG-Oracle Park 2019 86  .292 1464
37    as RHBARI-Chase Field 2019 78  .291 1720
38   as LHBTBR-TropicanaFld 2019 82  .291 1225
39    as RHBCHC-Wrigley Fld 2019 90  .291 2055
40   as RHBHOU-MinuteMaidPk 2019 88  .290 2035
41     as LHBLAA-Angel Stad 2019 82  .289 1387
42     as RHBNYM-Citi Field 2019 74  .288 1741
43   as RHBKCR-KauffmanStad 2019 80  .288 1801
44    as LHBCHC-Wrigley Fld 2019 90  .287 1318
45   as LHBNYY-Yankee Stad3 2019 90  .287  973
46   as LHBSTL-Busch Stad 3 2019 84  .287 1106
47         as RHBTokyo Dome 2019  4  .286  132
48   as RHBPHI-CitizensBank 2019 88  .285 2135
49    as LHBCLE-Progressive 2019 86  .285 1700
50   as RHBMIN-Target Field 2019 80  .284 1739
51   as LHBCIN-GreatAmer BP 2019 74  .284 1194
52    as RHBCLE-Progressive 2019 86  .282 1491
53    as RHBLAD-Dodger Stad 2019 86  .280 1767
54    as LHBLAD-Dodger Stad 2019 86  .280 1426
55   as RHBSTL-Busch Stad 3 2019 84  .279 2047
56     as RHBLAA-Angel Stad 2019 82  .278 1788
57   as LHBBAL-Camden Yards 2019 84  .277 1304
58   as RHBOAK-Oakland Col. 2019 82  .277 1885
59   as LHBHOU-MinuteMaidPk 2019 88  .277 1297
60     as LHBMIA-Marlins Pk 2019 88  .273 1120
61     as LHBTOR-Rogers Ctr 2019 82  .272 1272
62       as RHBEs Monterrey 2019  8  .270  211
63     as RHBTOR-Rogers Ctr 2019 82  .269 1871
64       as LHBEs Monterrey 2019  8  .268  104
65       as RHBSDP-Petco Pk 2019 88  .263 2186
66   as LHBOAK-Oakland Col. 2019 82  .256 1225
67         as LHBTokyo Dome 2019  4  .167   50
68   as LHBKCR-TD Amer Park 2019  2  .154   23


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/1/2019.
   25. bobm Posted: July 01, 2019 at 06:02 PM (#5857951)
For cumulative team seasons, From 2009 to 2019, All Teams in Major Leagues, For any choice in Ballpark Platoon Splits, sorted by greatest babip for this split

                                                      
Rk                    Split From   To    G BAbip    PA
1     as LHBBOS-London Stad 2019 2019    4  .442    58
2     as RHBBOS-London Stad 2019 2019    4  .434   135
3    as RHBKCR-TD Amer Park 2019 2019    2  .389    57
4        as LHBPHI-BBT Park 2017 2018    4  .382    49
5        as RHBPHI-BBT Park 2017 2018    4  .371   100
6    as RHBMIN-Est HBithorn 2010 2018   10  .358   239
7        as HBMIL-Miller Pk 2017 2017    6  .348   237
8       as LHBCOL-Coors Fld 2009 2019 1701  .335 27810
9       as RHBCOL-Coors Fld 2009 2019 1702  .330 39083
10      as LHBBOS-Fenway Pk 2009 2019 1699  .319 28915
11      as LHBMIN-Metrodome 2009 2009  164  .315  3043
12      as RHBBOS-Fenway Pk 2009 2019 1700  .313 36977
13    as RHBDET-Comerica Pk 2009 2019 1702  .311 39095
14   as LHBFLA-SunLife Stad 2009 2011  474  .310  7401
15       as LHBEs Monterrey 2018 2019   14  .310   213
16   as LHBKCR-KauffmanStad 2009 2019 1699  .310 28950
17   as RHBFLA-SunLife Stad 2009 2011  474  .309 11134
18    as LHBARI-Chase Field 2009 2019 1689  .309 26738
19   as LHBMIN-Target Field 2010 2019 1531  .308 27588
20    as RHBTEX-Rangers Bpk 2009 2019 1708  .306 38569
21   as LHBARI-SydneyCricGr 2014 2014    4  .306    59
22    as RHBARI-Chase Field 2009 2019 1694  .306 38497
23    as RHBATL-SunTrust Pk 2017 2019  406  .305  8353
24   as RHBMIN-Target Field 2010 2019 1534  .304 31309
25     as LHBATL-Turner Fld 2009 2016 1294  .304 22489
26    as LHBATL-SunTrust Pk 2017 2019  406  .303  7362
27    as RHBATL-Ft Bragg Pk 2016 2016    2  .303    49
28      as LHBMIL-Miller Pk 2009 2019 1704  .302 24766
29     as LHBWSN-Natls Park 2009 2019 1696  .302 26995
30   as RHBKCR-KauffmanStad 2009 2019 1700  .302 35929
31    as LHBCLE-Progressive 2009 2019 1704  .302 34342
32   as LHBSTL-Busch Stad 3 2009 2019 1700  .301 25896
33     as RHBWSN-Natls Park 2009 2019 1698  .301 37608
34   as LHBCIN-GreatAmer BP 2009 2019 1689  .300 26015
35         as RHBPIT-PNC Pk 2009 2019 1688  .300 39250
36    as LHBTEX-Rangers Bpk 2009 2019 1705  .300 27073
37    as LHBSFG-Oracle Park 2009 2019 1707  .300 27935
38     as LHBMIA-Marlins Pk 2012 2019 1214  .298 18568
39         as LHBPIT-PNC Pk 2009 2019 1682  .298 24984
40    as LHBCHC-Wrigley Fld 2009 2019 1709  .298 26359
41      as RHBMIN-Metrodome 2009 2009  164  .298  3335
42    as RHBCLE-Progressive 2009 2019 1700  .298 30540
43     as RHBCHW-Guaranteed 2009 2019 1700  .298 39185
44     as RHBMIA-Marlins Pk 2012 2019 1214  .298 27439
45   as LHBHOU-MinuteMaidPk 2009 2019 1696  .297 24836
46    as LHBDET-Comerica Pk 2009 2019 1688  .297 25643
47      as RHBMIL-Miller Pk 2009 2019 1710  .296 40384
48   as RHBSTL-Busch Stad 3 2009 2019 1704  .296 38759
49   as LHBBAL-Camden Yards 2009 2019 1695  .296 27609
50     as RHBATL-Turner Fld 2009 2016 1294  .295 26642
51   as RHBHOU-MinuteMaidPk 2009 2019 1702  .295 39547
52   as LHBPHI-CitizensBank 2009 2019 1712  .295 30225
53    as RHBCHC-Wrigley Fld 2009 2019 1710  .295 38756
54   as RHBBAL-Camden Yards 2009 2019 1698  .295 37504
55    as RHBSFG-Oracle Park 2009 2019 1708  .295 36352
56     as LHBTOR-Rogers Ctr 2009 2019 1690  .294 25265
57   as RHBNYY-Yankee Stad3 2009 2019 1710  .294 33959
58   as RHBPHI-CitizensBank 2009 2019 1712  .293 35146
59       as LHBSDP-Petco Pk 2009 2019 1695  .293 26626
60     as LHBLAA-Angel Stad 2009 2019 1693  .292 25584
61    as LHBLAD-Dodger Stad 2009 2019 1704  .292 26437
62     as LHBCHW-Guaranteed 2009 2019 1692  .292 25446
63    as LHBATL-Ft Bragg Pk 2016 2016    2  .292    30
64   as LHBNYY-Yankee Stad3 2009 2019 1706  .290 31104
65   as RHBTBR-TropicanaFld 2009 2019 1708  .290 35684
66   as RHBCIN-GreatAmer BP 2009 2019 1692  .289 38815
67     as LHBNYM-Citi Field 2009 2019 1698  .289 29366
68    as RHBLAD-Dodger Stad 2009 2019 1708  .288 37204
69     as RHBNYM-Citi Field 2009 2019 1700  .287 35080
70     as RHBLAA-Angel Stad 2009 2019 1702  .287 38737
71     as RHBTOR-Rogers Ctr 2009 2019 1696  .287 39447
72    as LHBSEA-T-Mobile Pk 2009 2019 1709  .287 30168
73   as RHBARI-SydneyCricGr 2014 2014    4  .286   103
74       as RHBEs Monterrey 2018 2019   14  .283   322
75   as RHBOAK-Oakland Col. 2009 2019 1698  .283 36031
76   as LHBOAK-Oakland Col. 2009 2019 1695  .282 27999
77    as RHBSEA-T-Mobile Pk 2009 2019 1710  .281 33909
78   as LHBMIN-Est HBithorn 2010 2018   10  .281   193
79   as LHBTBR-TropicanaFld 2009 2019 1703  .280 28391
80       as RHBSDP-Petco Pk 2009 2019 1702  .280 37264
81         as RHBTokyo Dome 2012 2019    8  .248   186
82         as LHBTokyo Dome 2012 2019    8  .184   140
83   as LHBKCR-TD Amer Park 2019 2019    2  .154    23
84     as HBARI-Chase Field 2018 2018    1  .000     1


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/1/2019.
   26. puck Posted: July 01, 2019 at 08:42 PM (#5858004)
You have to be a bit careful with team OPS+ as we exclude pitcher hitting when computing the league average.


Isn't 89 still a below league average OPS+?

I didn't mean to imply 89 and 104 were both compared to 100 being average.

   27. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 02, 2019 at 01:01 PM (#5858212)
Isn't this practically proof positive that moving back the fences would greatly aid in doing away with TTO baseball? The discrepancy can only seemingly be chalked up to approach and the approach difference can seemingly only be chalked up to ballpark dimension and the concomitant perceived higher relative value of a ball in play. At home, the Rockies are relatively K-averse because of the massive field size; on the road, with far smaller expanses of open green, they revert to oafball.

Coors field was the worst field for Ks in MLB from 2013-2017. It was also the best park for BABip and the 4th best park for HR over that time period. So pointing the arrow of causation from high BABip to low Ks based on that one example seems questionable.

That being said, I ran some simple calcs using the data from that page, and in fact BABip factor does have a very negative correlation with K factor -- -67.8%, actually. (HR factor has a 21.5% positive correlation with K rate.) You'd want to look at more data to test the hypothesis, and it does indicate that doing other things to increase BABip might have a similar effect to moving back the fences--reducing HR doesn't necessarily need to be the goal.

Anyway, it wasn't obvious to me that the data would show that, so thanks for asking the question.
   28. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 02, 2019 at 02:47 PM (#5858288)
Isn't this practically proof positive that moving back the fences would greatly aid in doing away with TTO baseball?

Replacing TTO-ball with a slew of 15-12 games that take 4-1/2 hours to play might be a case of the cure being worse than the disease.
   29. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 02, 2019 at 04:30 PM (#5858365)

Replacing TTO-ball with a slew of 15-12 games that take 4-1/2 hours to play might be a case of the cure being worse than the disease.


I don't see why that would be the outcome if you moved the fences back at sea level parks. If you moved the fences back at an altitude where the ball carried like normal, you'd see higher BABip but fewer HR.

Most low-K parks tend to be high run-scoring environments for obvious reasons, but there are exceptions along the lines I discussed in post #27. Nationals Park is 4th in the league in BABip factor, but only 21st for HRs and 13th for overall run scoring. And it ranks 20th in the league for Ks.
   30. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: July 02, 2019 at 08:57 PM (#5858460)
Keep the park factor between 97 and 103

It doesn't work like that.
   31. BrianBrianson Posted: July 02, 2019 at 09:03 PM (#5858464)
Man, you guys are easily trolled.

I you really hate Ks, strikeout = inning over. That'd change the calculus.

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