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Monday, June 07, 2021

Every man is guilty of all the good he did not OMNICHATTER! for June 7, 2021

Scoreboards for the Major Leagues and all minor leagues,
courtesy of Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee).

Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: June 07, 2021 at 03:43 PM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: omnichatter

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   1. Shohei Brotani (formerly LA Hombre) Posted: June 07, 2021 at 04:36 PM (#6023020)
HOW WILL THE ANGELS LOSE TODAY?!
   2. JJ1986 Posted: June 07, 2021 at 04:39 PM (#6023022)
Was the baseball draft supposed to be today? Small schedule.
   3. Howie Menckel Posted: June 07, 2021 at 04:58 PM (#6023030)

Bob Nightengale

@BNightengale
·
11m

The Seattle #Mariners send prized prospect Jarred Kelenic back to Triple-A Tacoma after hitting .096 with 26 strikeouts in 23 games.

.........................

jury is still out 2 1/2 years later, but think of all the rollercoasters from:

December 3, 2018: Traded by the New York Mets with Gerson Bautista, Jay Bruce, Justin Dunn and Anthony Swarzak to the Seattle Mariners for Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz and cash.

At the time

Upside for Mets:

- Cano still a bigtime hitter at 2B

- underpaid stellar closer in EDiaz

- dump Bruce's contract


Downside:

- Kelenic a future Hall of Famer?

- Cano wildly overpaid and old, even w the M's chipping in there

- Dunn might a useful MLB SP

- Bautista a flier at P

- Swarzak was really good in 2017

The trade by the Mets was widely panned from the get-go - and even moreso after EDiaz sets sail on his all-time record 15 HR allowed in the 9th inning in 2019, while Cano spits the bit in the first half of that season. the needle on the failure level of this trade went to 11.

since:

- Cano raked in the second half of 2019 and in 2020 and then takes the Mets off the hook for his 2021 salary for PEDs

- EDiaz has mostly been fine in 2020-21

- Swarzak sucked and got traded

- Bautista has just sucked

- Kelenic "hit" .096 with a 10 OPS+ in 92 PA as a corner OF before getting demoted today

- But Dunn has been a reasonable back-of-rotation SP, which everyone needs these days, and could get even better

can't ever picture the Mets winning this trade, but the needle - at least for now - has dipped below 11
   4. Walt Davis Posted: June 07, 2021 at 06:38 PM (#6023045)
I didn't pan that trade. Once you include the cost of Bruce and Swarzak plus the money direct to the Mets, they were paying half of Cano's remaining salary. I'm never a big fan of trading for a closer but Diaz seemed like a pretty good one to be trading for. The Mets could expect pretty good value over the first 2-3 years. Kelenic was just turning 19 and, with rare exception, that's just too far away to have much confidence in any sort of projection.

That said, obviously he did quite well and developed into a top prospect and has a good chance of being a star (though less so if limited to LF) so there's still a good chance the Mets will seriously regret this. (Like all prospects, it's a shame he didn't get to play a full season in 2020.)

As it turns out, the Mets have a meager 2.9 WAR head start in value from that trade and probably not much more from Cano and Diaz has just one more year of control. That sort of value over 3-4 years isn't hard to find of course so the trade will not work out in the Mets favor. There's also the question of whether it was the right time to make a present-future trade. And then there's the question of why add Cano to a team that had McNeil. But it was an OK trade.
   5. salvomania Posted: June 07, 2021 at 07:43 PM (#6023059)
I'll never understand why a hitter ever swings at a wild reliever's pitches until he proves he can throw a strike.

With two on and two out, the Red Sox bring in Hirokazu Sawamura, who walks Jazz Chisholm on four pitches--three of them waaaayyy out---to load the bases, with the Marlins down by three.

Next batter Jesus Aguilar then takes the first pitch---ball one, fifth straight ball from a pitcher who has yet to throw a strike---then swings at the next three pitches, all of which were well out of the strike zone (the first one was in the dirt), and strikes out to end the inning, leaving the bases loaded.
   6. Howie Menckel Posted: June 07, 2021 at 08:35 PM (#6023073)
No. 5, I enjoyed your post and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

for all of the analytics that are out there, I have never seen anything published about how often dominating closers in particular throw actual strikes - you know, in the strike zone.

even more aggravating is when mediocre hitters whiff on bad pitches against someone as dominating as a Chapman or a Kimbrel.

why not just tell those batters to take every pitch, if there is a real possibility that the closer will throw four balls before he throws three strikes? even if you "settle" for a walk and a strikeout, that's a good tradeoff ahead of getting your good, veteran hitter to the plate with a man on base who actually might not K vs that closer.

the closer and manager will notice the gambit soon enough - but who cares? now he knows he either has to throw the ball over the plate - and even a hard fastball might get hit if it's a strike - or expect to hand over another walk.
   7. The Duke Posted: June 07, 2021 at 09:16 PM (#6023083)
I see it all the time with rookies and veterans alike. They just want to swing the bat. And they probably assume that a lifetime of experience says they get paid more for hitting than walking

That’s why Grandal’s approach bears watching. He’s doing exactly what Howie says and when they finally throw him a strike he hits a home run
   8. Walt Davis Posted: June 07, 2021 at 09:33 PM (#6023090)
why not just tell those batters to take every pitch

Back when Bruce Sutter first came up ... batters hadn't seen a proper split-finger before and I don't know if anybody's ever had one that broke as much as Sutter's. (Many later ones were faster than his.) There'd be this 85 MPH pitch coming right down the middle, of course you swing at that, then somehow it's at your ankles when it arrives. Chuck Tanner reportedly told his hitters to simply stop swinging at Sutter -- he really had no other effective pitch. If it actually happened, after poking through game logs, looks like it was 1978 as Sutter did have 10 BB in 6.2 IP vs Pitt that year. He only walked 24 in 92 IP against everybody else. Eventually Sutter realized he could also start the pitch out up too high and have it drop in for a strike. We only have looked/swung/fouled strike data for Sutter in his last season so who knows.

Now, Mitch Williams ... my first move would have been to get the hell out of the batter's box and hope for the best, the idea of swinging never would have crossed my mind.
   9. Howie Menckel Posted: June 07, 2021 at 09:34 PM (#6023091)
great point on Grandal - it took a guy who can't hit a bull in the ass with a handful of sand, as the saying goes (though when he does, it sometimes goes a long way), to be willing to try it.

as a catcher, he'd have a good sense of this - and enough rapport with the staff to doublecheck that it would work.

Grandal has a stellar 129 OPS+ even though his AVG is a pathetic .153.

in 159 PA, he has an absurd AL-leading 45 walks.

imagine: if pitchers actually throw strikes, how could a guy hitting .153 be leading the league in BB in a league where pitchers don't bat?

and yes, Grandal also has 9 HR in 111 AB.

P.S. Grandal has showed this tendency in his previous years, just less extreme.

his "162 G average" stats are .237, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 89 BB, 116 OPS+

.153 AVG be damned - this guy is a productive part of the offense (with a minor ding for not being the ideal runner on base, if not quite a "base clogger").
   10. Walt Davis Posted: June 07, 2021 at 09:52 PM (#6023099)
Voros's little discovery continues to be pretty amazing. If anybody might be unhittable, you'd think it would be Aroldis Chapman. His career BABIP is 281 which is better than the average 297 ... but he's only had about 1000 BIP against him for his career so that's just 16 fewer IP hits over 570 innings. Kimbrel is at least down at 263 -- also just over 1000 BIP so about 35 fewer hits.

All-time BABIP leaders:

2000+ IP: Messersmith 243 (Catfish, Hoyt, Palmer, Hough)
1000+ IP: Still Andy (Catfish, Mike Norris, Sid Fernandez, Hoyt)
500+ IP: Percival 232 (Rex Barney, Clippard, Andy, Herb Score)

I assume you have no idea who Rex Barney is either. Debuted at 18 in 1943 for the Dodgers tossing a few ineffective innings. Into the military for two years. Came back for two not very good years as a swingman (130 IP) then moved into the rotation for 247 IP of 129 ERA+ at age 23. Then an average-ish swingman (140 IP) at 24 and just 34 bad innings at 25. May have gotten hurt, register shows just 17 more minors IP after age 25. The low BABIP came in handy given his 6.2 BB/9.

Now back to your regularly scheduled "only 3 games today" Omnichatter.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: June 07, 2021 at 09:57 PM (#6023103)
It's only 23 PA but Albert might have noticed what Grandal is doing. In the first 121 PA of this year, Albert had 3 BB. He now has 3 BB in those last 23 PA. He has just 5 hits but that's 1 double and 3 HR. Only 23 PA, but 250/348/750.
   12. Howie Menckel Posted: June 07, 2021 at 10:27 PM (#6023119)
10:

Barney is not THAT obscure. he started and lost Game 5 of the 1947 WS (though he got a rare whiff of DiMaggio with the bases loaded), and another in 1949. in between, he had a no-hitter. he was a character in that epic Dodgers era that has been well-chronicled, and was the only Dodgers pitcher ever to no-hit the archrival Giants at the Polo Grounds.

and he is fondly remembered in Baltimore as the PA announcer through the 1970s, 1980s, and most of the 1990s.

he also has a SABR bio - which is more than Frank Tanana can brag about, last I checked.

Rex earned two Purple Hearts and a Bronze Star and even met General Patton.

   13. Snowboy Posted: June 07, 2021 at 10:41 PM (#6023122)
I'm as upset as anyone by baseball selling its soul to gambling, betting sites, and allowing sportsbooks to build bricks'n'mortar facilities *AT* their ballparks (ie Nats.) I think I read here that there was some betting which was ballpark-only, using wifi on phone that was only within ballpark. Wanna talk about opening the door to a wolf in sheep's clothing?

I know I'm a boy, but I'm also old. I want Pete Rose to be in the Hall of Fame, and not have had a gambling problem. I want Shoeless Joe to be in the Hall of Fame, because he took money like everyone else but he never earned it, he never played badly. But I accept that these two great players are not in the Hall of Fame, because gambling is a scourge that can easily corrupt sports.

(I'm not a prude. I've sold "Split the Pot" [50/50] tickets at Great American Ballpark for the Reds and their charities, so I've been involved in gambling. I've brought a pocket full of $1s to a game, and bet on the outcome of a pitch or an at-bat, that is gambling. I've put money down at Caesar's Palace on a team for the outcome of the season, that is gambling. I can walk to the corner store here in Canada, and put money down in a government administered betting program on any major sports game happening tomorrow, that's totally gambling. But I strongly object to MLB entering into partnerships with betting houses and gambling establishments.)

If it means anything (and it does not help me or change my mind, but I mention it FYI) for all the hand-wringing I have been doing about baseball selling its soul, I've been watching hockey playoffs, and the NHL has also sold its soul to gambling. On the boards and *painted into the ice* (prime advertising space) we can see ads in all arenas (Boston, Edmonton, Vegas, Montreal, New York. etc, all) for BETWAY. We've also seen "Fanduel Sportsbook" and "Draftkings Sportsbook" on the boards. We've seen commercials during games for bodog.net and pointsbet.net, and various local casinos, and the even more nefarious "in-game" 15 second ads for bet99.net or reads by the PBP announcer (with a quarter page graphic) for "Sports Interaction - Canada's Oddsmaker" Oh yeah, and "William Hill" on the boards.

I've only seen one ad on the boards for a vehicle: Honda
And only one ad for a car rental: Enterprise
But when it comes to gambling sites, they are plentiful and multiple in every arena.
Unofficially Gary Bettman and Rob Manfred accept cash, debit, credit card, money order, pieces of silver, nuggets of gold, and casino chips as payment. Any and all welcome.
   14. Howie Menckel Posted: June 07, 2021 at 11:56 PM (#6023127)
the NBA already is similar, and the NFL will be this fall as well - more than you might be expecting.

two possible consolations I have mentioned before, since I am familiar with this topic:

- the backlash among traditional fans across Europe in recent years to the absolute bombardment of gambling ads - on soccer jerseys, billboards, all over stadiums, and so on - has cost that overaggressive sector dearly in terms of outright bans and/or major limitations. American sports executives - particularly in the NFL, which has the most to lose - claim they have noticed and will proceed with caution. but if there is backlash here as well, don't be surprised if elected officials don't jump in.

- there already was a massive amount of gambling on sports in the US long before my NJ (sorry) opened Pandora's Box with a 2018 Supreme Court win nullifying a (pretty clearly unconstitutional, on "commandeering" grounds, that not one Justice found palatable) 1992 federal law granting Nevada near full monopoly status. the most popular estimate was $150 billion a year wagered, but maybe it was $100 billion a year or maybe it was $400 billion a year. point being, concerns about fixing of games and such is not particularly different now than it was five years ago. NJ (and NY visitors not able to legally bet south of the Catskill Mountains) bet almost $1 billion a MONTH already. they'll top that milestone in September with the return of football.

as you are Canadian, no doubt you know that until this year, your country only allowed parlay - multi-game longshot - wagering. and that, too, is going to change last I checked.

I continue to expect the fallout within a couple of years to be one traditional telecast, and one parallel one designed especially for gamblers. the younger generation expects/demands such options pretty much everywhere. it would be foolish to alienate a growing market.
   15. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 08, 2021 at 12:08 AM (#6023129)
I want Shoeless Joe to be in the Hall of Fame, because he took money like everyone else but he never earned it, he never played badly.
Not to detract from the remainder of #13, but Jackson played very poorly in the games that were thrown, but very well in the games the Black Sox tried to win when they didn’t get the payoff they expected. That makes his overall performance look OK, but it’s not really exculpatory.
   16. Snowboy Posted: June 08, 2021 at 01:43 PM (#6023190)
Thanks for the feedback, Howie and Clapper.
When I check my innocent little fantasy team lineup on CBSSports, it informs me that ARI@OAK starts at 9:40p. And ARI +193 / OAK -213
It seems to have gone from underground/Vegas-only to pervasive in a hurry.

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