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Monday, March 14, 2022

Excited’ Seattle Mariners acquire Cincinnati Reds All-Star OF Jesse Winker and 3B Eugenio Suarez

The Seattle Mariners acquired All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker from the Cincinnati Reds, the teams announced on Monday.

Winker and third baseman Eugenio Suarez are headed to Seattle in exchange for right-handed pitcher Justin Dunn, outfielder Jake Fraley, 2019 second-round pick Brandon Williamson, a left-handed pitcher and a player to be named later.

On a loaded offense in Cincinnati last season, Winker was a fixture in the lineup, appearing in 110 games with 423 at-bats. He finished with 24 home runs, 71 RBIs and 235 total bases.

“We’re incredibly excited at the chance to acquire two All-Star caliber players,” Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto said. “Jesse has been one of the premier offensive players in the league over the past two seasons, while Suarez brings a long track record as a power hitter.”

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 14, 2022 at 06:42 PM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: eugenio suarez, jesse winker, mariners, reds

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   1. WKRP in Cincinnatus Posted: March 14, 2022 at 06:56 PM (#6067772)
At least the Reds will be profitable!
   2. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: March 14, 2022 at 07:43 PM (#6067780)
Dunn is a 25 yo with a 3.94 career ERA (100 innings), but a 5.61 FIP. Looking at his K and BB numbers, I'm guess a good fastball but he doesn't know where it's going.
Fraley is a 26 yo left fielder with a career 85 OPS+. (Better than that in the minors, but it's not like this guy is anything special.)
Williamson is a 23 yo who was in AA last year. 14 K/9 and 4.6 K/BB. So he's a good prospect. BA has his ranked 83rd over all.

This is the best they could do for their 27 yo all-star? Who isn't even expensive - he's arb eligible. Suarez was bad last year, and iffy the year before, but he's only 30 and has an all-star caliber history. He's making 11m per. ZiPS is projecting him for a 774 OPS, which would be about 50 points above league average last year. So it's not even like he's especially over paid.
   3. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: March 14, 2022 at 07:44 PM (#6067781)
Excuse me. I'm going to go vomit.
   4. 57i66135 is a hard word for me. Posted: March 14, 2022 at 08:05 PM (#6067783)
2 in the pinker; 1 in the winker.
   5. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: March 14, 2022 at 08:23 PM (#6067786)
Wow, this is a real fleecing. What are the Reds doing? They could at least look like they are trying to make good trades. This is not of that type.
   6. reech Posted: March 14, 2022 at 08:30 PM (#6067788)
Ken Griffey Jr is currently the 6th highest paid player on the Reds as his deferred salary nets him about 3.9 million per year.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: March 14, 2022 at 08:32 PM (#6067789)
If the Reds had gotten something really good back, you might be able to make a case for "great sell high on Winker."

But given the other trades we've seen recently, I'm not sure I can criticize the return too badly. Winker has two years of control left. I'm not sure he's as valuable as Chris Bassitt (2 years left) but looks like the Reds got a similar or better prospect. He's probably not as good as Olson (2 years left)and the A's got two probably better prospects back (and maybe closer to MLB-ready). Suarez is owed 3/$35 and is the salary dump portion that "adds" value from the Reds' perspective. (Agreed that Suarez seems a decent bet to bounce back but he has been replacement level over the last 800 PA.)

So when you include the extra profit for the Reds' impoverished owners, 2 years of Winker brought similar return as 2 years of Bassitt, much less return than Olson. I'm not sure any of them are actually good trades for the A's and Reds but mansion mortgage payments don't just make themselves you know.
   8. Ziggy: social distancing since 1980 Posted: March 14, 2022 at 08:39 PM (#6067790)
Even from that perspective this is confusing. Winker made $3m last year. Sure, he'll get a raise, but I presume that having Winker on your team is a net positive in terms of cash flow. Suarez is making $11m and projects to be something around league average. Wins go for $8m on the FA market. Granted, the Reds are pretty far to the left on the wins-to-revenue curve, and teams buying wins on the FA market are further to the right, but that's got to have a damn sharp slope if a league average player isn't worth $11m.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: March 14, 2022 at 09:24 PM (#6067797)
Hard to say. On the open market, a league average player these days probably only gets about 3/$35 if they can even get a 3-year contract. Plus he projects to league average this year (age 30) which suggests maybe less than league average for ages 31-32. Finally as I said, he's been replacement level for the last 800 PA so maybe the Reds think that projection is optimistic. My just made up and soon to be patented Covid-adjusted Marcel projection for Suarez is 1.8 WAR at the top end, 1 WAR at the bottom.

But sure, this could easily turn into the equivalent of the Pirates trading the "overpaid" Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton for Flotsam and Jetsam (nearly 20 years ago!!)

The WDc-Marcel methodology

Method 1: treat 2020-21 as a single season, apply standard 5/3/2 Marcel weighting (proabbly overweights 2018-19)
Method 2: Ignore 2020, apply standard 5/3/2 Marcel weighting (clearly underweights 2020, probably overweights 2018-19)
Method 3: Apply a 4/3/2/1 weighting (Goldilocks?
Method 4: Ignore 2020, apply a 5/2/1 weighting (requires division by 8!!!)

Projections for Suarez are then approx 1.8, 1.5, 1, 1
   10. The Duke Posted: March 14, 2022 at 10:18 PM (#6067809)
Votto is at 3/75 and baseball trade values has him at -40 million value so in theory he can be had if they agree to eat $40 million of prospect value. How about Votto and Castillo to brewers for Ashby.
   11. Cooper Nielson Posted: March 14, 2022 at 10:28 PM (#6067812)
Winker was a fixture in the lineup, appearing in 110 games

Do I not know what "fixture" means?
   12. bookbook Posted: March 14, 2022 at 11:24 PM (#6067819)
I think the Reds believe they will put him in their bullpen, and he will earn that future closer tag he’s had. It might work.
   13. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: March 15, 2022 at 12:29 AM (#6067824)
Good god. I am done with the Reds this year. Time to follow NPB or F1.
   14. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: March 15, 2022 at 08:29 AM (#6067833)
Votto is 2/50 with a 7 million buyout for 2024. Not sure what happens with 2024 if he gets traded.

And, while Winker, Gray, and Suarez are not great, they are way better than what they got, and probably could hope to get in the future production-wise. I guess there are a couple decent pitching prospects, but,you know, TINSTAAP. And, now they don't have enough guys to fill in the MLB lineup (with the DH in the NL).
   15. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 15, 2022 at 09:23 AM (#6067834)
@BizballMaury
Something to think about w/MLB’s new labor deal and club reaction:
• Nat’l media rights now $1.6B annually or nearly $54M per club.
• It’s a five year agreement and we’re days into it. The real judge of spending may take yrs.
• Manfred said clubs would react. It’s happening.


Small market local media rights run about $30-40M, plus there is revenue sharing, so it is safe to say that the Reds (and A's and Royals and Pirates and others) have all their payroll covered without ever selling a single ticket. It is absurd that anyone should be cutting expenses.
   16. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 15, 2022 at 09:45 AM (#6067836)
Small market local media rights run about $30-40M, plus there is revenue sharing, so it is safe to say that the Reds (and A's and Royals and Pirates and others) have all their payroll covered without ever selling a single ticket. It is absurd that anyone should be cutting expenses.

Every team gets ~$250M from central revenue sources, plus revenue sharing. On top of that they have 54% of their local revenue.

Any team with a payroll <$100M is guaranteed to make lots of money, no matter what the fake accounting shows.
   17. Buck Coats Posted: March 15, 2022 at 01:01 PM (#6067854)
I'm not sure he's as valuable as Chris Bassitt (2 years left)


Isn't Bassitt only one year left?
   18. Dolf Lucky Posted: March 15, 2022 at 01:53 PM (#6067866)
Every team gets ~$250M from central revenue sources, plus revenue sharing. On top of that they have 54% of their local revenue.


This is interesting info. Do you have a source?
   19. Walt Davis Posted: March 15, 2022 at 03:16 PM (#6067882)
You're right, Bassitt is one year left.
   20. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 15, 2022 at 03:32 PM (#6067887)

This is interesting info. Do you have a source?


https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Revenue_sharing

Here's the number for 2018, $210M per team: $91M in central revenue, and $118M from revenue sharing. $250M is an updated estimate; I forget where I saw it.

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